Indicators

• GMI: 1/6
• GMI-2: 5/9
• T2108: 25%

Just look at a modified daily Guppy chart before buying or selling. A picture is worth a thousand words, or dollars. Ignore the fundamentals and stories. Just look at the stock’s behavior. I am sorry for those who are holding RH. In an up-trend all of the red lines must be rising well above the blue lines=RWB, see chart of USO. The dotted line shows the daily closes.

Indicators

• GMI: 0/6
• GMI-2: 1/9
• T2108: 23%

I do not reenter the market on the long side until the moving averages indicate an up-trend with the 4wk avg>10wk avg>30wk avg.The rally this week might offer the last chance to get out or trim holdings. Then again, if this is a true bottom I will have plenty of time to get long again. Real up-trends last months. I never fight the tape. Look  at this chart and see how nice it is to be long when the 4wk>10wk>30wk.  The GMI=0. When GMI= 5 or 6 my long setups are more likely to work.

Indicators

• GMI: 1/6
• GMI-2: 1/9
• T2108: 19%

Be very careful as we may be at the beginning of a significant Stage 4 down-trend. We may see a retracement to the 4wk average at 583.94. That may be resistance.

GMI=1 and remains RED. T2108=19, still above the level where many bottoms have occurred, below 10.

Indicators

• GMI: 2/6
• GMI-2: 2/9
• T2108: 22%

The Stage 4 down-trend has yet to begin. That is when I typically exited the markets. However, I did not wait for that this time. I am more of a chicken now. The market could have a final rally up to the 30 week, 4 week or 10 week averages. Prior major tops did that and led me to think I was wrong to exit earlier. Ignore the news, fundamentals and market media pundits. Just watch the market’s actions.

People should look at a modified daily Guppy chart before buying or selling. META has been in a BWR down-trend for quite a while. Forget earnings, fundamentals and news. Just look at the price trends. RWB (red/white/blue) up-trends rule for going long! Why should anyone be long META? Buy and hope?

Indicators

• GMI: 1/6
• GMI-2: 0/9
• T2108: 21%

This chart shows Monday’s close as this week’s close. The cross will be more impressive if it does hold through Friday’s close.

Indicators

• GMI: 0/6
• GMI-2: 1/9
• T2108: 17%

The indexes are oversold and we may see a bounce this week. If I was not in cash I would sell into any bounce. Here is the 10:30 weekly chart. The 10 week average is about to cross below the 30 week for the first time since June, 2025. Note the recent high volume weekly declines.

The GMI=0 and RED.

Indicators

• GMI: 0/6
• GMI-2: 0/9
• T2108: 23%

I publish this blog to just share with readers what I am doing. I have managed to avoid all major declines since 2000. I would tell my students that if they were crossing the street and saw a car coming towards them at full speed, they should not argue with the truck or assume the driver  will stop. They should get the hell out of the way. That is what we have to do with the market. When my indicators turn down, I get out and wait for things to turn up. All my indicators are now negative but the 30 week average has yet to turn down. That will signal to me the BEGINNING of a Stage 4 decline and has in the past led me to exit  safely before major market declines. I am deeply saddened for persons, especially retiring boomers, who are seeing their hard earned savings evaporate.

The major indexes are in daily BWR down-trends. A picture is worth a thousand words.

Indicators

• GMI: 0/6
• GMI-2: 1/9
• T2108: 23%

If the 30 week average curves down, it could signal the BEGINNING of a major down-trend. That signal got me out of all large declines since 2000. I refuse to put my $$$ at risk. I do not mind buying back higher if/when the trend turns up. I cannot tolerate a major drawdown in my retirement accounts. Younger people can hold on with the belief that the market always comes back. After the 1929 top, the Dow took 25 years to come back. I can’t wait a long time for my account to recover.  The market is severely oversold now, however, so we may see a quick short term bounce. Note the above average trading volume on the recent weekly declines.

Indicators

• GMI: 1/6
• GMI-2: 4/9
• T2108: 32%

When the shorter averages (red) decline below the longer term averages (blue) leaving a white space between them, it is a daily BWR down-trend. I will not hold long positions except money market funds or treasury ETFs  (TBIL). Dotted line shows daily closes. This is my modified Guppy chart based on Daryl Guppy’s GMMA indicator. Guppy’s book is listed on this blog.

Note what a daily  RWB up-trend looked like beginning last May. Ignore the news and opinions and let the market guide our trading.

Indicators

• GMI: 0/6
• GMI-2: 2/9
• T2108: 34%

On February 4th I posted that a new QQQ short term down-trend had begun. QQQ went sideways after that but QQQ may now be entering a longer term Stage 4 down-trend. If it does so, we may be in for a sizable decline. That signal got me out early from the large declines since 2000. I have been posting that I prefer to be in cash. If the 30 week average turns down, all of my funds will be in cash. Be very careful. Most people who have not experienced a major market decline may be slaughtered. Look at recent above average weekly volume declines. Gray line in chart shows weekly close. If we enter a Stage 4 decline I will post the indicator I use to detect market bottoms. Study the Livermore quotes below that I showed my students.

GMI=0 and RED.