Given this week's bribery plea by former city council member Michael Brown, I am saving up to pay off my bets that Mayor Vincent Gray would escape the long arm of U.S. Attorney Ron Machen. People scoffed when I said Gray would skate. Now I'm thinking they were right. More on that later.

First, please indulge me: This is a column I never wanted to write. It is my last for The Washington Examiner. You will be able to read my columns on washingtonian.com next month, but I will miss the print essay. Since I started writing for newspapers in the mid-1970s, writing a city column for a daily paper was my dream. I aspired to throw prose punches like Chicago's Mike Royko or New York's Jimmy Breslin. I failed most days.

I am in mourning for The Examiner as a daily newspaper. Day after day, Examiner reporters covered the region and scooped the competition. Examiner alumni have gone on to report and break news for other publications. Democracy functions better with more voices and more reporters at newspapers that compete for scoops. The Washington region will miss The Examiner; politicians and corrupt officials can breathe easier.

My first column ran in The Examiner's debut edition, on Feb. 1, 2005, under the headline "What Makes us Washingtonians?"

Washingtonians have changed, at least the ones who actually live in the District. The city added 65,000 people since 2005, according to the census. The newcomers are younger, whiter and spreading east across the city to traditionally African-American neighborhoods. The Chocolate City I covered in 2005 has turned mocha.

The city government is more corrupt, which brings me back to Michael Brown and Vince Gray.

Brown is one of three former city council members who pleaded guilty to breaking federal laws in the past two years. Federal agents regaled us with photos of Brown taking $55,000 in wads of cash in return for promising favors to a city contractor, who happened to be an undercover FBI agent.

Brown's downfall could bring the feds closer to Gray for a number of reasons. U.S. Attorney Machen described how Brown laundered a 2007 campaign contribution from a businessman through Jean Clarke Harris. The businessman is believed to be Jeff Thompson, who allegedly financed a $650,000 "shadow campaign" that helped fund Gray's 2010 mayoral campaign.

Harris, a Gray confidante, has pleaded guilty to federal charges related to his 2010 campaign, along with two other Gray campaign staffers. All are cooperating with federal investigators. Michael Brown is singing, too. Gray has said not a word about Brown. They are very close. I sense Gray's in deep trouble because too many of his very close friends and associates were helping collect and spend what was essentially dirty money during his campaign. Too many are talking to investigators.

Pressed by reporters after Brown's day in court Monday, Machen said his Gray investigation is moving very quickly -- but not fast enough for me to write an Examiner column about it.

Sad, sad.

Harry Jaffe's column appears on Wednesday. He can be contacted at hjaffe@washingtonian.com.

New D.C. taking place along the Anacostia River

Harry Jaffe

June 04, 12:00 AM June 04, 09:10 PM

You missed a great party if you didn't make it to the Tour de Fat festival Saturday along the Anacostia River.

The tour's name had nothing to do with body weight. It was part of a national tour sponsored by Colorado's New Belgium Brewing Co., famous for its Fat Tire brews. Fat tire refers to mountain bikes, rather than what might be around your waist. The festival showcased the Yards Park in all its glory: Bands played along the river bank, families frolicked around the fountain, kids roamed over the new bridge connecting the river trail.

I highlight the festival not for the free beer but because of the gleaming park along the Anacostia. Eight years ago when I started writing this city column for The Washington Examiner, this bank of the river showed the trashy, industrial side of the District.

We spend much time and many words on dysfunction in the District government, for good reason. Examples of corruption, malfeasance and malfunction greet us every day. But beyond the John A. Wilson Building, I see a city that bears little resemblance to the one I wrote about in February 2005.

The District is no longer Marion Barry's town.

"We are witnessing the transformation of a major American city," says Ernie Jarvis, president of the D.C. Building Industry Association. "It's clearly market-driven and demand-driven, but it's supported by the government."

The market has driven development eastward past Shaw to Petworth, Eckington and Bloomingdale. Anacostia is next. Parts of the city that were destinations for drug dealers a decade ago are hot spots for restaurateurs from New York and Italy. I'm talking 14th and U streets east to the refurbished Howard Theatre and across North Capital Street.

Businesses are creating jobs in D.C. at a rapid rate -- 2,000 in March, according to the Office of the Chief Financial Officer. The latest figures show the number of working District residents rose 18,634 in March compared with the year before. We are indeed adding more than 1,000 residents a month, many with jobs.

Mark Ein, an investor and entrepreneur, started Venturehouse Partners on Seventh Street downtown in 1999. "We were early in planting a flag to focus on technology investments," he says. "We believed that over the long term, Washington was the place to be. It's very much come that way."

Even as government jobs shrink, Ein and other entrepreneurs are seeding private-sector opportunities.

Meanwhile, crime is down, and the city's financial reserve is back up to $1.5 billion. Word in the Wilson Building is that revenue estimates later this month will show another increase.

Let me take you back to the Anacostia River. For the past century, the capital city has faced the Potomac River by way of Georgetown. Keep a close watch on the transformation coming to the wharf along Maine Avenue in Southwest and the Yards in Southeast, between Nationals Park and the Navy Yard.

The new District will be a river town, the river being the Anacostia. Blink and you might miss the new city rising around you.

Harry Jaffe's column appears on Wednesday. He can be contacted at hjaffe@washingtonian.com.

Harry Jaffe: Once around the bases for baseball in D.C.

Harry Jaffe

May 28, 12:00 AM May 28, 08:15 PM

Memorial Day weekend was a sweet spell for the Washington Nationals and those of us who love Major League Baseball.

Skies were clear and weather was cool. Fans filled the stands. The team draws an average of 33,000 a game, better than Boston, Atlanta and Baltimore. The Nationals beat the Phillies two games out of three before dropping Monday's game to the Baltimore Orioles, 6-2. The Nats ended the four-day weekend two and two, flirting with a .500 record.

This, my hometown fans, is where I believe you will see the Nationals for the rest of the season: struggling to stay even up in the win-loss column.

Before I bid this space farewell, I wanted to serve up props to the folks who brought baseball back to the capital city. Every time I hit Nationals Park, I appreciate the emerald diamond and the Capitol dome over the left field wall and I think of our baseball heroes.

Nine years ago, it was Mayor Tony Williams, council member Jack Evans and Mark Tuohey, then head of the D.C. Sports and Entertainment Commission, who prevailed in brutal combat with Virginia to bring baseball to our town.

Dreamers like banker Bob Pincus, Evans and his running buddy, Bill Hall, always conspired to replace the Senators, who split D.C. in 1971. As the city's fortunes fell in the 1980s, Virginians started to lobby for a major league team. They were led by businessman and one-time catcher Jim Collins, who formed the Virginia Baseball Club.

In 1999, Tony Williams, with Evans by his side, donned baseball caps with a "W" and announced their baseball crusade by crooning "Take Me Out to the Ball Game." Meanwhile, Collins hunted for a stadium site and worked on Virginia politicians to fund it.

In 2002, Major League Baseball bought the failing Montreal Expos and made it known the team was looking for a U.S. home. Virginia and D.C. joined the battle. Collins wooed baseball owners with chopper rides over stadium sites near Washington Dulles International Airport. District politicians and financier Fred Malek pushed every button, including quiet chats with then-President George W. Bush.

In the end, D.C. won the team, because Mark Tuohey spent hours negotiating with White Sox owner Jerry Reinsdorf. Williams with Evans hammered through a public financing deal for a D.C. stadium. Mark Warner, then Virginia governor, had backed out of bonds to build the stadium. Game over.

The Lerner Family beat out Fred Malek's group for the rights to buy the team in 2004. From last place in 2010, the Nats won their first division title last season, and this spring, many experts picked them to win the World Series.

Not so easy. Young phenom Bryce Harper is awe-inspiring but keeps coming up lame. Pitching star Stephen Strasburg might be a head case. High-priced right fielder Jayson Werth has been nursing an injury for weeks. Manager Davey Johnson has to cobble together healthy squads with minor leaguers.

Root for the home team, enjoy the game, but trim your expectations. Take it from a Phillies fan.

Harry Jaffe's column appears on Wednesday. He can be contacted at hjaffe@washingtonian.com.

Harry Jaffe: Vincent Gray weighs a second term as D.C. mayor

Harry Jaffe

May 21, 12:00 AM May 21, 05:50 PM

In working the streets and the phones to figure out where our nascent mayoral campaign is headed, I realized I was dealing with two realities — parallel universes, if you prefer.

In one, council members battle it out to win the executive branch's top job. Ward 4's Muriel Bowser announced her candidacy first. After exploring a possible run for many months, last weekend Tommy Wells from Ward 6 threw his hat in the ring. We now have two official candidates. We might have a third, if Jack Evans joins the contest. We might have a fourth, in at-large Council member David Catania.

There may be more contenders for next year's primary and general election. Who knows?

In the parallel universe, Mayor Vincent Gray decides one term is not enough, and he decides to run for a second four-year stint. If Gray runs, all the advantages of the incumbent are at his disposal. And despite the federal investigation hanging over his head, he immediately becomes hard to beat.

Against stern warnings from many sources and political operatives, I am predicting Gray runs. Here's why.

U.S. Attorney Ron Machen's investigation into Gray's 2010 campaign seemed to herald the mayor's political demise. Last July the prosecutor said the city's 2010 campaign "was corrupted" by $650,000 that went into a Gray campaign "shadow" account. Three council members called on Gray to resign. A poll showed a majority of voters felt the same way. Three of his trusted campaign aides pleaded guilty to crimes connected to the campaign.

But Machen has not connected Gray to the dirty money. Scandals that take place early in a politician's term can run their course and be less of a factor in re-election. That could operate in Gray's favor, if Machen cannot connect Gray to the corrupt cash.

Inside Gray's political bunker, he is telling associates and aides that he was not aware of the "shadow campaign." He's convinced his staff that he will not be implicated in the probe. Meanwhile, Machen's investigation has broadened far beyond Gray's campaign to an array of potentially corrupt practices involving the lottery contract and the financial dealings of businessman and city contractor Jeff Thompson.

One piece of bad news for Gray came from sources who said that Vernon Hawkins, Gray's longtime friend and early supporter, might be cooperating with federal investigators. Hawkins helped run the "shadow campaign." If anyone can tie Gray to the corrupt cash, it's Hawkins. Machen's office would not confirm the report.

But if Gray avoids indictment or implication in Machen's probe, he can roll out all the good news. D.C.'s homicide rate is down, development is up, jobless rates are down, the budget surplus is up. He has renovated schools and playgrounds. School reforms are progressing.

My guess is Gray runs. The parallel political universes join later this summer, and we are treated to an all-out political war -- as we deserve.

Harry Jaffe's column appears on Wednesday. He can be contacted at hjaffe@washingtonian.com.

Vocational education has been the ugly duckling of public schooling for years. Allow me to apply the politically correct and cleansed moniker: "career and technical education."

Decades ago we all took carpentry, auto mechanics or home economics. Most school districts had at least one vo-ed facility where students could graduate prepared for jobs in the building trades.

"It doesn't get the kind of respect the core curriculum gets," Carol Randolph tells me. Randolph is chief operations officer for the DC Students Construction Trades Foundation. "We certainly don't get the respect we need."

The lack of respect, funding, teachers and students has put Randolph's foundation in jeopardy. Begun in 2002 as a vehicle for the D.C. region's successful developers and builders to fund construction education in DC Public Schools, the foundation's program has not exactly thrived. A few years ago it graduated 15 students. This year the number is nine.

At the foundation's annual luncheon on Wednesday, developers will celebrate their students and teachers, as well they should. As Randolph says, it's been "a struggle" to maintain the foundation's academy at Cardozo High School. But the program has also prepared graduates for jobs or college at a rate of 90 percent, according to its annual report.

But what began as five courses -- carpentry, plumbing, HVAC (heating and cooling), electrical and masonry -- is down to two. DCPS funds one carpentry teacher. The foundation forks over funds for the instructor in electrical classes.

The foundation started with good intentions, high hopes and contributions from the private sector. Randolph, who works for Miller & Long Construction Co., recalls touring Montgomery County's Thomas Edison High School of Technology in 2001. She marveled at its programs in construction, architecture and design.

"Why don't we have one?" she asked. Founding President John McMahon, chairman of Miller & Long, coaxed other builders and developers to finance the foundation. Their academy opened in 2005.

It has done well, in the bowels of Cardozo High. Students helped build a house on 13th Street in Columbia Heights, and it sold for $385,000. Net proceeds went back to the foundation, Randolph says.

But Cardozo cut math teachers and vocational instructors for English, leaving the academy with two classes. Meanwhile, the District opened Phelps Architecture, Construction and Engineering High, equipped with the classrooms and tools that Randolph admired at Thomas Edison High.

So whither the foundation's academy?

The renovated Cardozo is scheduled to open this fall with better facilities for the academy's 126 students. Randolph is hoping the new principal will be more willing to fill its teaching slots.

But the foundation and its academy need more than hope. They need commitment -- either more teachers from DCPS or funds from the private sector.

The answer might be a charter school. If Marriott could help establish a Hospitality High, why can't the model work for builders and developers?

Harry Jaffe's column appears on Wednesday. He can be contacted at hjaffe@washingtonexaminer.com.

Harry Jaffe: Stalemate over documents is a win for Mayor Vincent Gray

Harry Jaffe

May 07, 12:00 AM May 07, 06:30 PM

How to interpret news that D.C. businessman and political kingmaker Jeff Thompson has been able to keep federal investigators from digging into documents that might expose a trail of corruption all the way to Mayor Vince Gray?

We learned this week that prosecutors have accused Thompson of obstructing their investigation into a "shadow campaign" that raised $650,000 for Gray's 2010 mayoral campaign. The FBI seized the documents from Thomspon's home and office last June.

The political classes were so sure the feds would pull strings from Thompson's documents that would unravel corrupt practices throughout the District government -- from health care contracting to the lottery contract to Gray's campaign. When news of the off-the-books mayoral campaign broke, U.S. Attorney Ron Machen called it "corrupt." Council members said "Resign!"

Here's the thing: if federal investigators cannot spend the months required to dig through the documents and find enough hard evidence to prove corruption, the probe goes fallow and perhaps dies. Clearly, that's what Thompson and his attorney, Brendan Sullivan, are hoping.

You can wag your finger at Thompson, as did Judge Lamberth. In his ruling made last May but unsealed this week, Lamberth wrote that Thompson's attempts to block investigators from reviewing his files would "grind the government's efforts to a halt."

Exactly!

Thompson appealed Lamberth's ruling that he had to open up his books. That kept the feds' fingers from the files for nearly another year. In March, the federal appeals court ruled for prosecutors that Thompson must open his files, but it added that an independent filtering team would first review them for privileged information.

More delays.

Now Thompson has the option of appealing that ruling to the Supreme Court, which could keep his records out of the feds' hands for many more months.

Another win.

Has anyone noticed that Vince Gray is playing the same game? After telling NBC4's Tom Sherwood that he would "continue to work with this investigation," the mayor has clammed up. On the advice of his defense lawyer, Robert Bennett, he has remained mum. He's had no contact with federal investigators or prosecutors.

Add it up: To make a case against either Thompson or Gray or both, prosecutors need evidence: incriminating statements, documents, admissions of guilt. True, three close political aides to Gray have admitted to federal crimes in connection with the campaign, but none seem to have implicated Vince Gray. Unless prosecutors can get their mitts on Thompson's documents and find hard evidence of corruption, the mayor skates.

But if Gray chooses to run for reelection, can he hope to win with unanswered corruption charges in the wind?

Perhaps. Depends on who and how many are running against him.

Harry Jaffe's column appears on Wednesday. He can be contacted at hjaffe@washingtonexaminer.com.

Harry Jaffe: Mayor Vincent Gray's early childhood crusade paying off

Harry Jaffe

April 30, 12:00 AM April 30, 09:25 PM

A colleague at work has a daughter who just turned 3, the time to begin pondering her education. Best to start early. She and her husband have been considering their options:

Flee the District for stellar public schools across the suburban line?

Beg the grandparents for part of the $34,000 a year it takes to send even a young child to one of D.C.'s private schools?

Or hunker down in the District and hope that the public and charter schools continue to improve.

They chose option three, got on a waiting list for a charter and celebrated their daughter's acceptance.

Celebrated? A D.C. public school?

I remember when my friends in the suburbs thought I was committing a form of child abuse by sending my daughters off to kindergarten in D.C. public schools in the 1990s. Now the District finds itself leading the nation in early childhood education. Believe it.

"D.C. enrolls a higher percentage of both 3- and 4-year-olds in public pre-K than do any of the states," the National Institute for Early Education Research reported Monday. "D.C. also provides a higher level of funding per-child than any of the states, at $13,974."

The District is spending $140 million on early childhood education, according to the mayor's office.

Throwing money at educating kids early might just be one of the few government programs that pays off. Study after study shows that children who enter first grade with strong math and reading skills are the ones who excel in elementary school through college.

Writing in the New York Times on Sunday, Stanford education and sociology professor Sean Reardon noted that children of wealthy Americans are more successful in school that their less well-off classmates. Sounds obvious, but Reardon drills down to point out that children of the rich start earlier.

"Maybe," Reardon wrote, "we should take a lesson from the rich and invest much more heavily as a society in our children's educational opportunities from the day they are born."

Mayor Vince Gray took that lesson to heart and to the schools. Say what you will about the mayor, he has championed early childhood education from his early days as city council chairman. In 2008, he pushed through a major expansion of universal pre-K programs. Now they are bearing fruit.

About 13,000 of the District's 15,000 kids who are 3 and 4 are enrolled in school programs. The city says 90 percent of 4-year-olds are in public school.

"This isn't some random day care center in someone's home," says mayoral spokesman Pedro Ribeiro. "These are programs that teach cognitive skills."

The District wraps poor families into education at two levels: The kids spend their days in safe places and get two square meals a day; their parents get access to adult education and job training.

"It can help the whole family," Ribeiro says.

Gray's early childhood programs can help keep families in the District. When toddlers were ready to go to school, young families would leave.

Now they have reason to stay -- and they are.

Harry Jaffe's column appears on Wednesday. He can be contacted at hjaffe@washingtonian.com.

Harry Jaffe: Apathy and race lift Anita Bonds to D.C. Council win

Harry Jaffe

April 24, 12:00 AM April 24, 06:15 PM

There was Marion Barry whooping it up with Anita Bonds Tuesday night after it was clear she had prevailed in the special election for city council.

Why not? The "mayor for life" probably figures he has two votes now on the 13-member council.

It would be so easy to chalk up Anita Bonds' victory in Tuesday's special city council election as a win for Washington's political establishment and Barry. Not so fast.

Ms. Bonds got her start with Barry back in the late 1970s when he was a fresh-faced mayor. She's been a stalwart in the local Democratic Party ever since. The party put her on the council on an interim basis to fill the seat vacated by Phil Mendelson's rise to chairman, so she could run as an incumbent.

Many of her council colleagues endorsed her.

But it would be too glib to say Bonds' victory showcases the power of the old-line Democrats. I see a few other forces at work.

Elissa Silverman was a winner on Tuesday. She came in a close second, with about 28 percent of the vote. It was the first foray into local elective politics for the former journalist and budget analyst with the Fiscal Policy Institute. She came off in the campaign as honest, genuine and articulate. She never veered from her progressive stands on affordable housing, education and ethics. Silverman connected with voters. Hopefully, she will again.

The Republicans were clear losers. Patrick Mara is a seasoned candidate. His best chance of winning a council seat was in this special election, a beauty contest as opposed to a primary leading to a general election. He positioned himself well as an ethically clean, socially progressive Republican. He had plenty of endorsements from the press, the DC Chamber of Commerce, the Sierra Club. But D.C. voters -- registered Democrats 10-1 -- were not buying. After Mara went down a dismal third, I doubt the Republicans can elect anyone to anything.

So how did Anita Bonds win with 32 percent of the vote? Two words: apathy and race.

On my way to vote, I asked my buddy Bennie Barnes who he was with. Born and raised in the District, Barnes follows D.C. politics as well as anyone.

"Not voting," he said. "These people are all the same."

Outside the polling station at the Foundry United Methodist Church at 16th and P streets NW, I asked a young white guy if he would vote to re-elect Mayor Vince Gray, if he were on the ballot. "Not sure who that is," he said.

We are a city of newcomers who don't have a clue about local politics, and many longtime residents are losing interest. That's why fewer than 10 percent of registered voters bothered to cast ballots in this election. And that's one reason Anita Bonds barely beat Elissa Silverman. It took relatively few votes.

And there's race. African-Americans fear they are losing control of the government. Bonds played the race card, which played into their fears.

So, no, this was not a muscular political party on display. It was a city where voters have a weak connection to the system.

Harry Jaffe's column appears on Wednesday. He can be contacted at hjaffe@washingtonexaminer.com.

Harry Jaffe: Anybody but Vincent Gray voters hit the polls

Harry Jaffe

April 23, 12:00 AM April 23, 10:05 PM

What happens if they hold an election and nobody votes?

This occurred to me Tuesday afternoon as I visited Precinct 143, in the Chinese Community Church at Fifth and I St. NW. Poll workers outnumbered voters 6-1. The polls had been open for nine hours. The electronic machines showed 75 had cast ballots.

"Hopefully," said one poll worker, "we'll get a rush after work. We're ready to roll!"

I rolled from one corner of the nation's capital city to the other on voting day. And from Anacostia to Fort Dupont, and Eckington to Chevy Chase, only the committed voters showed.

When I realized that few people cared about this special election -- to choose an at-large council member and vote on a ballot issue -- I decided to make the most of it and conduct my own poll. These stalwart voters who bothered to show clearly care about D.C. politics, and they pay attention to local news. Who among them would vote for Mayor Vince Gray if he were to run for re-election?

Consider this poll anecdotal and unscientific. I simply asked 30 voters a simple question: If Vince Gray were on the ballot today running for mayor, would you vote for him?

"NO!" said Jeanmarie Neal. She and her husband had just voted in Precinct 85, in the bowels of the Specialty Hospital on Capitol Hill. "I expect him to be indicted."

Neal was referring to the unfortunate federal investigation into Gray's 2010 mayoral campaign. Three of his aides have pleaded guilty to federal charges. The source and handling of $650,000 in "shadow" campaign cash are in question. Plenty of voters expect Gray to take the fall.

"He has to take care of a few things," an African-American man told me outside Benning Library, Precinct 102. "He has a blight on his credibility. But as mayor he's done well."

Not one of the white voters said they would vote for Gray. "Anybody but Gray," came from two of them. "Too corrupt," said a fellow who had voted in Lafayette Elementary, Precinct 51.

The real problem for the mayor is that he got no love from the African-Americans, either. They were noncommittal. Not one voter looked me in the eye and said: "Vince Gray is my man."

In my random poll of 30 voters, 18 said they would not vote for Gray. Six said they might be with him. Six couldn't say.

My random survey tracks closely with a recent private poll. It showed Gray's disapproval rating at 49 percent, against an approval rating of 42 percent. Asked if the Democratic primary were held today, would they vote for Gray, only 18 percent went for the mayor. A whopping 29 percent said they were undecided.

Vince Gray has behaved like a man who has decided to run. But from my survey and professional polls, his base is soft, at best. He's very beatable -- and in a mayoral election, people might actually show up to vote.

Harry Jaffe's column appears on Wednesday. He can be contacted at hjaffe@washingtonian.com.

Harry Jaffe: D.C. still split by race 40 years after home rule debate

Harry Jaffe

April 16, 12:00 AM April 16, 09:40 PM

Walking some neighborhoods of Washington, D.C., you might get the wrong idea about integration and race.

Sample the bars and restaurants around Logan Circle and up the 14th Street strip. You will see a colorful mix of black and white faces, Latinos and Asians. On a tour of Bloomingdale and Eckington and parts of Shaw, you might see young white families pushing strollers past rowhouses where African-American neighbors are relaxing on their porches.

But this idyllic snapshot turns out to be ephemeral. White families are moving into traditional African-American neighborhoods. The change can hurt. It can destroy families and rip apart neighborhoods. The tension in some parts of town is palpable. Then there are the sections of D.C. that remain starkly white or black.

Northwest neighborhoods along the Potomac River and the Maryland line are blindingly white -- Upper Caucasia in my book. That's still true for most of the city west of Rock Creek Park. Cross North Capital Street and head east over the Anacostia River bridges, and you will see few Caucasians, though that's changing.

These anecdotal glimpses show a city that's still hypersegregated. Polling numbers present us with harder-core assessments of race in D.C.

Pollsters have shared details of their work for candidates in next week's at-large council race. They asked to go unnamed. Here's what they found:

» Voters in predominantly black Wards of 5, 7 and 8 are likely to cast their ballots for Anita Bonds, the veteran Democratic activist. She's the acting at-large member, thanks to her popularity on the Democratic State Committee. Bonds goes way, way back to the early days of the Marion Barry machine. As Barry's head of constituent services for years, one could say she had her hands on the controls. Bonds is African-American.

» Likely voters polled in Wards 1, 2, 3 and 6 responded to questions that made it clear they would vote for one of the four white candidates running for the at-large seat.

On ethical issues, white voters said, "Throw the bums out!" Black voters' response: "They are our bums, so keep them."

I suspect D.C.'s African-American voters are circling the wagons because they feel more threatened than ever. They once held a strong majority of the population; now the city is split 50-50. The city council showed strong black majorities for decades. Of the 12 current members, seven are white, five are African-American. If Bonds loses to a white candidate, there will be more white council members than ever under the home rule government.

The fear factor explains why most African-Americans will vote for Anita Bonds. Put yourself in their place. Makes sense. It also makes sense that white voters will cast their ballots for anyone but Bonds, because she is such a clear representative of the city's Old Guard and old ways. And because she's played the race card.

So despite the city's integrated veneer, we are very much divided by race, perhaps more than ever. And the proof will be in next week's election.

Harry Jaffe's column appears on Wednesday. He can be contacted at hjaffe@washingtonian.com.