Trading Pips

2009-03-28T19:32:00.004+02:00

One of the common ways to set an initial stop loss is to use a volatility method. The volatility method I consider uses a concept (also a technical indicator) called Average True Range (ATR). If you are not familiar with it, it would be best to read up on ATR, then come back here.
Using a volatility method, you are prepared after entry, for the price to fall a distance which is based on the volatility of that one stock (or how far it normally moves on a day to day basis).
Taking material from the ATR article - to use ATR for exits, you would normally use a multiple of the ATR to ensure a sufficient gap between your exit and the stock's normal price movement. Therefore, using the ATR without any modification (the ATR value itself, eg. 5 cents) would have your stop loss too close to the price and would not allow the stock you are trading sufficient room to move and behave naturally.
Depending on your trading style, you would normally consider using something in the order of 2 - 3.5 multiplied by the ATR as a suitable initial stop loss. If you used what is referred to as a ‘2.5 ATR stop’, then your initial stop loss will be 2.5 multiplied by the ATR below your entry price.
As an example, we purchase XYZ Corporation at $2.20, and we use a 3ATR initial stop loss. The ATR is 5.4 cents.
We work out what the ATR multiplied by 3 is and then subtract that from the entry price.
Using the example detailed above, the exit price is calculated as follows:
Initial stop loss
= $2.20 - 3 x ATR
= $2.20 - 3 x $0.054
= $2.20 - $0.162 (round down to $0.16)
= $2.04
NB: Yes you could have rounded the $0.162 up to $0.17 however it is not worth discussing. Let me assure you that the 1 cent up for grabs won't really matter in the long run.
So in the above example, our initial stop loss for our trade with an entry price of $2.20 would be $2.04.
Remember, the advantage of this method is that it considers the volatility of the stock you are purchasing and tailors the initial stop loss accordingly.
Of course, you can use any range of numbers, eg. 1.5ATR through to 4 - 5ATR. The items to consider are the same as using different percentages.
If you use a 1.5ATR initial stop loss, you are obviously not allowing your stock to fall as far before you consider it a loser and exit the trade at a loss. This can be a disadvantage as you are potentially not allowing your stock the freedom to move above normally and perhaps continue its medium term trend.
On the other side, if you use a 4ATR initial stop loss, you are providing the stock ample opportunity to move in your anticipated direction before you consider it a loser and exit the trade at a loss.
Let's consider the 4ATR initial stop loss for a moment then - you might be reading this and think "but if I give back all that movement before I exit, I am going to lose more money!"
Fair comment - however it depends.
If you commit an equal amount of money to each trade, then yes, you are correct. Having your initial stop loss further away will result in a greater loss.
However, using a better position sizing model, ensures that regardless of how far your initial stop loss is away, you only lose the same amount of money. This is what money management is all about.
This method can be quite effective and you will naturally discover what multiple of the ATR is best for you. This is all there has to be with calculating an initial stop loss, if that is it, then it makes you wonder why more people don't use it and cut their losses. Let me reiterate - one of the most important things you can do trading is to cut your losses.
"Learn to take losses. The most important thing in making money is not letting your losses get out of hand."Marty Schwartz

Forex Scams: How to Spot Them A Mile Away

2009-03-25T23:05:00.002+02:00

In recent years, investors have witnessed increased number of investment opportunities and offerings. While the complexity and success of these investment products vary, technological innovation has made the Forex market one of the fastest growth areas. Many of the leading Forex brokers reported up to 500% rise in the number of new retail customers. However, the growth of the Forex market has been accompanied by a sharp rise in foreign currency trading scams.
Many of these Forex scams are promoted on the radio, television, newspapers and the Internet. Investors who fall victim to these schemes, often lose all of their money.
As an illustration, let's examine the facts of a recent case involving Forex fraud and its consequences. W learned of a foreign currency trading opportunity through an infomercial on the radio. K, the owner of a Forex asset management firm, spoke during the infomercial, promising viewers significant profits with minimum risk. After seeing the infomercial, W contacted K, and later attended a seminar presented by K and his firm. The seminar was so convincing that W wrote a check to K for $100,000.
Several months later, W received statements (which were false) from K's firm reflecting significant returns on his initial $100,000 investment. Thereafter, W attended another seminar and decided to invest more money. W took a loan and invested another $800,000 in K's Forex trading operation. Short while after W's second investment, the Securities and Exchange Commission filed a complaint against K and his firm for engaging in a scheme to defraud investors. K's firm's assets were frozen, including the $900,000 invested by W. A receiver was appointed to distribute the remaining assets of K's firm to defrauded investors. The assets were distributed on pro-rata basis with no legal preference given to any of the victims. Since K's firm's assets were not enough to satisfy all of the defrauded investor's claims, W received only about $22,000 of the $900,000 he invested.
Since a whole book can be written on the various tactics and methods used by Forex scam artists, in this article, I will focus on the major warning signs that one needs to identify to avoid falling victim to Forex swindlers.
1. Promises of Little or No Risk
If you encounter a Forex firm that claims to have developed a foreign currency trading strategy that carries very little or no risk, stay away. The reason Forex trading can be very profitable is because it also carries a very high risk of loss. The Forex market is very volatile, and, without good money management, an investor can lose most if not all her capital within few days. Thus, individuals and firms who make claims that are far from market realities, as is riskless Forex trading, are really after your money.
2. Guarantees of Large Profits
Beware of firms that guarantee large profits in Forex trading. These so called "guarantees" are mere ploys to entice investors and make them believe that their money is safe and that they will definitely make large profits. Such claims are simply untrue, because even the best professional traders cannot guarantee that they will make a profit any given day. The Forex market, as most financial markets, is very unpredictable. Hence, be suspicious of such claims and those who make them.
3. Employment Ads For Forex Traders
Many Forex trading firms use employment ads to attract individuals with capital to trade using their systems. The employment ads, which often appear in newspapers and on the Internet, state that a foreign currency trading firm is looking for individuals to teach how to trade the foreign currency market using firm capital. Those who reply to the ad are convinced by the firm that they will make a fortune trading currencies if they participate in the firm's training program. During the training process, which often occurs on a demo system, the novice traders are encouraged and told that their demo trading records show that have made significant profits, that they are ready to make real money and would very successful. Despite the firm's assessment of the novice trader as a brilliant newcomer, no firm capital is provided to the trader, instead the excited novice is told to use her own capital to trade using the firm's platform. In addition to various fees imposed on traders using the firm's platform, the Forex firm makes money as an introducing broker. Each time the novice trader trades through the firm's system, a good part of the spread charged by the broker is shared and goes into the firm's coffers. After few months, the novice trader loses all of her capital and leaves. The Forex firm, having made money during the novice trader's short stint, moves on to new traders eager to become rich trading foreign currencies.
4. Is the Forex Firm a CFTC or NFA Member
Before you sign a check and give your capital to a Forex company, make sure you investigate the entity. Check to see whether the Forex firm, with which you plan to do business, is registered with the United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission or the National Futures Association. Many scam artists falsely claim that their firms are registered with the CFTC or the NFA to gain a prospective investor's trust. Do not trust anyone, research the firm and the background of the individuals involved before parting with your hard earned money.
The Internet has paved the way for many new opportunities for retail investors. The Forex market is both exciting and fast paced. Investor's who are careful and diligent are likely to avoid the perils of this market, and will profit from the opportunities foreign currency trading has to offer.

Stock Market Report: Day Trading or Swing Trading Online? Stock Investing Information

2009-03-23T20:11:00.002+02:00

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Option Arbitrage in the Forex Market

2009-03-23T20:09:00.004+02:00

What is arbitrage? Arbitrage is the simultaneous buying and selling of identical financial instruments taking advantage of price discrepancies between different brokers, exchanges, clearing firms, etc. and thus locking in a profit. On paper, arbitrage is a risk-less trading strategy. In the real world however, risks abound.

So why trade arbitrage? Well, if the risks can be managed, arbitrage can be extremely profitable if you can find the opportunities and take advantage of the opportunities before they disappear. After all, the arbitrage opportunity is present because one side is slow to react to market news, momentum, etc. When it corrects the opportunity is gone.

Why arbitrage forex options? Well, because the opportunity exists if you look far it. The forex market is a cash inter-bank / inter-dealer market. In simplest terms, this means the foreign currencies traded in the forex market are traded directly between banks, foreign currency dealers and forex investors wishing either to diversify, speculate or to hedge foreign currency risk. The forex market is not a "market" in the traditional sense due to the fact that there is no centralized location for forex trading activity and, therefore, trades placed in the forex market are considered over-the-counter (OTC). Forex trading between parties occurs through computer terminals, exchanges and over telephones at thousands of locations worldwide.

Therefore the forex market is not as efficient as the NYSE for example. Price discrepancies exist between trading platforms, clearing firms, banks, etc if only for a small period of time. Options pricing is also affected for the same reasons but since there are other components involved in pricing an option than just the price of underlying currency, they tend to exist for longer periods of time.

One of the most common causes of option pricing differences is the calculation of volatility. Volatility is generally the standard deviation measured over a period of time. Sounds simple enough right? Well, if compare the volatility measure across different forex option providers, you'll likely find differences as large as 2%. When you find this you have also probably found an arbitrage opportunity.

Now that you've found an arbitrage opportunity, how do you trade it? Well, that's a bit trickier and this article cannot possibly cover all the risks associated with pulling off the trade but I will list some issues you should consider.

First of all, are the options really the same? Are the contract sizes, expiration dates and times the same? American or European style?

You also need to consider execution risk. Will there be slippage. Will there be a time delay in getting filled. Is the market moving too fast?

Exit strategy, how are you going to exit the trade and still capture the profit? What happens if the options expire in-the money? Out-of-the-money? What if you get assigned a position on one option but not the other?

These are just a few of the issues one must consider when trying to profit from option arbitrage. The key to option arbitrage is not unlike any other trade -- planning and risk management. Plan the trade, manage the risks, and execute the plan and you will be successful.

Business and the Forex

2009-03-23T20:09:00.002+02:00

The business world is a complex web of supply and demand. Money and goods, physical or otherwise, pass through the global market every single day. To meet this exchange between one country and another, foreign exchange, or forex, was born. The term forex is used to refer to transactions involving the conversion of money of one country into that of another or to the international transfer of money and credit instruments.

Foreign exchange, or forex, is used because different nations have different monetary units, and the currency of one country cannot be used for making payments in another country. Because of trade, travel, and other transactions between individuals and business enterprises of different countries, it becomes necessary to convert money into the currency of other countries in order to pay for goods or services in those countries. The transfer of money values from one country to another and the determination of the price at which the currency of one country will be surrendered for that of another is one of the main functions of forex.

Forex is a commodity, and its price fluctuates in accordance with supply and demand; exchange rates are published daily in every major newspapers of the world. When the exchange rate is floating, free of government intervention, the rate of the forex, or the price of the currency of one country in terms of that of another, will depend on overall supply and demand and on the relative purchasing power of the two currencies. The forex value will depend on the competitive position of the two countries in world markets. If country has a certain commodity that another country is dependent on, its forex will be significantly higher than the latter. Gold, oil, and exports are just a few of these commodities influencing a country's forex.

Forex is also dictated at times by speculation of dealers, brokers, or others. What they predict becomes a major influence on forex. However, the government has the power to prevent the forex from crashing. Its gold value and country's wealth raises help the forex value. The aim of government's control is to limit the demand for and to increase the supply of forex in order to maintain a stable exchange rate. Control usually provides for allocating forex only for approved imports and requires that all or part of the forex derived from exports or other sources be given to the central bank in exchange for local currency.

Forex is seen as the trading tool of different countries. To stabilize and increase the forex of one country will mean a lot of economic changes. The proper allocation of funds, the stock market condition and the nation's marketable wealth will determine the future of its forex rate. Understanding the forex rate is relatively simple. Using one country's forex, i.e. the dollar, we can determine the wealth standing of a country. Say the forex rate of a pound to the dollar is 80, while the dollar to the pound is 65. This means that the pound is more stable and richer that the dollar because of the 15 value difference.

The country's stability and political scene can also influence it forex rate. Investors bring in a lot of money, which equates to additional wealth for the country. Once that country is not able to guarantee stability, political and economy-wise, these people can take their investments out and leave the forex rate crippled.

Why Demo Account Performance Is Often Better Than Real Account Performance

2009-03-23T20:08:00.007+02:00

Over the past several years, the popularity of online currency trading has grown substantially. Each day, online FX brokerage firms attract new investors - each of them lining up with a glint in their eye, lured in by promises of easy money. Most of these companies allow you to sign up for a free demo account which lets you place mock trades using their trading platform to get a feel for the excitement of currency trading. In the casual world of free demo accounts - many young traders find they are able to garner impressive profits without a significant amount of effort. It almost seems too good to be true. But transferring this success from a demo account to a real account is far less common. Why is this? The actual trading platform behaves the exact same way, the market doesn't care whether you're a demo or real trader - so what is different? It's you who has changed. Not your personality, not even your trading style - but the factors that affect you are different.

What is the key factor to trading success?

The search for the "Holy Grail" of trading has been a common theme throughout the history of markets. There are a variety of different techniques. Those whom are inclined towards number crunching and pattern recognition may prefer technical analysis, whereas those more focused on the big picture, logical macro perspective prefer fundamental analysis. Then there are specific methodologies like swing trading, trend following or even more esoteric ideas like the Elliot Wave theory. Which one is best? There are examples of very successful traders using each methodology.

Since most new traders lose money - perhaps the more appropriate question to ask is, "What is the key factor to trading failure?"

Greed and Fear

Trading is an atmosphere rich in the porous emotions of greed and fear. The current price of a given security or financial instrument at any point in time can be thought of as the confluence of greed (bulls) and fear (bears). These two emotions make up the core of humanity itself. When market information is released, trading can be a high intensity experience. Sensing danger, your body releases adrenaline that acts to accentuate both your greed (fight) and your fear (flight). Because these emotions are so strong, they can cause you to act irrationally, ignore your system, stated set of rules or trading plan and to act upon impulse. Indeed, this is a genetically programmed response - but it is often also the trader's downfall, especially when he's playing with much better capitalized, more sophisticated and experienced foes that know how to manipulate those emotions.

When you are a trader - you are always under the influence of at least one of these two emotions, even if you don't have any trades on.

Impact of fear and greed on your trading

If the market's going up and you're in - greed is telling you to buy more and fear is telling you to take your profits while you still can. If it's going down, fear of being wrong makes you hold onto a losing position - and then greed sometimes convinces you to "average down" your position (and buy more) so it'll be easier for you to come back.

If the market's going up and you're not invested - fear is telling you that you're missing out on easy money but it's your greed that causes you to get in just after the greatest increase (just when its about to reverse course). If the market's going down and you're not invested - greed is telling you to get in as the price is cheap, while fear reminds you that you'll miss out on this opportunity if you don't act quickly.

Perhaps if we just felt greed, or just felt fear we would be able to control our emotions a little better. But when both of these little devils whisper into our ears at the same time - it is often impossible not to listen.

The Thrill of Greed

The first time you try FX trading - you will feel the thrill of greed. It is an ecstatic experience, your brain flush with neurotransmitters and your mind giddy with visions of untold riches about to be reaped. Greed is bold, aggressive and incredibly exciting. It can take hold of you both mentally and physically. Just imagine the possibilities!

This greed is what draws us into FX trading in the first place - the dream of easy money and 100:1 or 200:1 margin rates. It inspires us and causes us to forego rational thinking in favour of reckless abandon.

In the movie Wall Street, Gordon Gecko says, "Greed is good", but it is also very dangerous - especially if you are unable to recognize when greed is the one doing the talking. Greed is also one of the most common techniques used to manipulate people. Every get rich quick scheme, promising untold riches for no money down takes advantage of your natural predisposition to throw all logic and sense out the window when greed pays a visit. The argument starts to appear very compelling and you ignore what would otherwise be clear warning signs. Like drunk goggles, greed can mislead you and when you eventually wake up you are often in a very precarious position.

The Fear of Losing

Fear can be equally as dangerous. The most potent and easily manipulated form of fear is your fear of admitting that you are wrong. Fear of having your precious ego bruised. This fear can cause people to do incredibly stupid things. The funny thing about this world is that everyone thinks that they are right. Most people would rather lose thousands of dollars than admit they are wrong. It is easy to feel ashamed of trading losses and live in denial but this is self-destructive behaviour. By denying the problem exists, you fail to take steps address it and only ensure that it will continue in the future.

Demo Trading

Demo trading is a great way to get started in foreign exchange trading. It is identical to real trading, except that you're using "pretend" money. Demo trading allows you to get a taste for what type of events move markets and how they move. It encourages you to learn more about geopolitics, macroeconomics and global finance and these are all incredibly positive things.

Demo trading also introduces you to the rapture of greed. Trading is a means to one of the purest, most raw and potent forms of greed. The whole point of trading is to make money and the more money you make - the stronger the pull of your greed becomes. It is intoxicating and can take complete control of you.

But demo trading does not introduce you to fear. There is no fear when you are demo trading. It is like you have a perpetual get out of jail free card. If you start losing badly on a demo account - simply start a new one. There is no accountability for your trading failures and only recognition of your trading success.

So your demo account does not teach you how to handle the emotion of fear. This emotion is most likely going to lead to your downfall. Greed may get you overextended, but fear will stop you from cutting your losses. You may think that fear of losing money would cause you to cut your losses, but the stronger emotion is fear of being wrong and that causes you to hold on to your losing position - until it's all gone.

There is also the issue of account size. Many demo accounts give you $50,000 to play with. This type of capitalization allows you to buy 5 lots (500K) of EURUSD pretty easily. If goes up 20 pips you've made $1000. Nice one. But when you open your real account - it's more likely that you put $5000 or $10000 in there to begin with. Now you're dealing with a 50K lot, which means you'll take $100 out of a 20-pip movement. But mentally you are used to getting $1000 for that movement so you usually end up risking more. Next thing you know - your 200K position has turned against you 50 pips and you've lost $1000. That's real money you just lost. You can't just start another account.

The capitalization of the demo account is sufficient to sustain losses and still come out on top. But your real account is likely to be undercapitalized and if you're trying to achieve returns similar to what you got on your demo account - you are going to blow up very quickly.

Being honest with yourself

Ultimately, while providing an excellent introduction to FX trading - demo accounts do not accurately predict whether you'll be successful trading real money. Markets are dominated by psychology and often go against what fundamental logic or technical indicators suggest should happen. The single most critical factor in your trading success will be your ability to control your emotions of greed and fear. These emotions cloud your judgment and cause you to trade recklessly. Demo accounts introduce you to the emotion of greed, but by their very nature they are risk free and therefore there is no fear involved. They are also likely to be better capitalized than your real money account, which misleads you with respect to the amount of returns you can expect to earn.

For all of these reasons, demo accounts allow you to avoid being honest with yourself and this is perhaps the most important factor of all. You need to know your edge and your limits and in order to know these - you must be honest with yourself.

This being said, demo accounts are still very entertaining and educational and I highly recommend opening one to anyone who's interested in getting a taste of the exciting world of FX trading. It's a great way to learn more about economics, global politics and yourself.

Where is the Market Going?

2009-03-23T20:08:00.005+02:00

If you ask me whether the market will have moved up or down by this time next year, well I may as well flip a coin, because I don't know.

If you ask me whether the market will have moved up or down by this time next month, well again, I may as well flip a coin, because I still don't know.

If you ask me whether the market will have moved up or down by this time next week, AGAIN, I may as well flip a coin, because I don't know.

And if you ask me whether the market will have moved up or down by this time tomorrow, I am sorry, but I JUST DON'T KNOW!

But? if you ask me whether the market will move up or down in next few minutes, well I will have a definite opinion. Why? Because if I can see the CURRENT state of buying and selling in the market NOW, then I can make a reasoned and fairly accurate estimate of what the market will do in the next few minutes and moments.

My prediction will not be based on some secret formula; it will not be based on some esoteric sounding indicator, nor on some complex mathematical equation. No, it will be based on my evaluation of the current state of supply and demand.

Predicting the long-term movements of the markets is a guessing game. All we have to go on is the past; all we can reasonably do is assume that what has happened in the past will continue to happen in the future. Basically that is what trend following is, making the assumption that the past equals the future.

In my trading world, the only law that works is that of supply and demand: if there are more buyers than sellers then the market will go up; and if there are more sellers than buyers the market will go down.

It matters not one iota the whys and wherefores of the buyers and the sellers. It does not matter that a trader has chosen to sell now because the 9 period moving average has crossed the 14 period; or because he has just lost his shirt; or because he is taking a profit; or because he is just plain bored.

No, I don't care why a trader has entered a buy or a sell order, I just care that they have, by their act, added to either the buying or the selling pressure.

Trading Profitably on the Foreign Exchange Market

2009-03-23T20:08:00.002+02:00

You may be asking yourself "how does one begin to trade profitably as a currency trader?".

First, it is important to closely monitor foreign equity markets to attempt to predict or model how their respective currencies will perform against other currencies, ideally, currencies that are not very closely related, nor proportional, to the former currency.

For example, Mexico's economy is closely linked the the U.S. economy, in some respects, but in other respects, they are not very directly proportional since Mexico's economy is currently improving as a consequence of increased consumer financing, an increased number of remittances from family members in the U.S., and other factors.

Back to our original point, when you begin to notice that an equity market is about to become bullish, it may be a signal that the currency of the country in which the equity market you're looking at is based may be about to rise. Conversely, if the market turns bearish, that may be a bad sign for the country's respective currency. Nevertheless, you may still be able to capitalize on bear markets and economies by short-selling a currency pair. That is one distinguishing feature in currency trading: you may bet against a country's economy (including your own!) by betting against that country's respective currency.

Other currency fundamentals to consider include a country's interest rates, deficit, exports and imports, as well as, and probably very importantly, oil prices. Look at how the recent OPEC meeting affected oil prices and how that in turn had a considerable effect on the DJIA.

Advantages of Trading FOREX Over Stocks and Commodities

2009-03-23T20:07:00.005+02:00

There are many advantages to Trading FOREX as your main income generator. Let's start by something that may be worrying you already.

"Do I need a Diploma or some kind of Certification to trade FOREX?" The answer is this:

When attempting to make more profit than losses on the fluctuation of exchange rates between major currencies (i.e., Trading the FOREX), nobody is going to ask you for a diploma, a formal license or verify the amount of hours you've spent studying the Foreign exchange market and banking industry. All you need is the proper training.

But this is not the only advantage you get when trading FOREX, compared to other ways of investment and speculation; i.e. Stocks and Commodities. You have a whole bunch of advantages over these other options that will be enumerated in the following paragraphs.

The Main Benefits of Trading the FX Spot Market:

1): FOREX is the largest financial market in the world.

With a daily trading volume of over $1.5 trillion, the spot FOREX market can absorb trading sizes that dwarf the capacity of any other market. In fact, when compared with the $50 billion daily market for equities or the $30 billion futures market, it becomes quickly apparent this gives you, and millions of other FOREX traders, almost infinite trading liquidity and flexibility.

2): FOREX is a TRUE 24-hour market.

The FOREX Market never sleeps. Trading positions can be entered and exited at any moment - around the globe, around the clock, six days a week. There is no waiting for an opening bell as in the case of trading stocks. It is a 24- hour, continuous electronic (ONLINE) currency exchange that never closes. This is very desirable for you if you want to trade on a part-time basis, because you can choose when you want to trade: morning, noon or night.

3): There is never a Bear Market in FOREX.

You can have access to a seamless, mutually-inclusive (two- way) exchange of currencies. Meaning, because currencies trade in "pairs" (for example, US dollar vs. yen or US dollar vs. Swiss franc), one side of every currency pair (for example, USD/JPY - JPY = YEN) is constantly moving in relation to the other. Thus, when you buy a particular currency, you are actually simultaneously selling the other currency in that particular pair. As the market moves, one of the currencies will increase in value versus the other. Of course, it is up to you to choose the correct currency to be long or short. Since currency trading always involves buying one currency and selling another, there is no structural bias to the market. This means you have equal potential to profit in both a rising or falling market.

4): High Leverage - up to 200:1 Leverage.

You are permitted to trade foreign currencies on a highly leveraged basis - up to 200 times your investment with some brokers. This is primarily attributed to the higher levels of liquidity within the currency markets. Standard 100,000- unit currency lots can be traded with as little as 1% margin, or $1,000. Mini FX accounts are permitted to trade with just 0.5% margin -- in other words, just $50 allows you to control a 10,000-unit currency position. Futures traders, who are accustomed to margin requirements generally equal to 5%-8% of the contract value, will immediately recognize that the FOREX market provides much greater leverage, and for stock traders, who must post at least 50% margin, thereâ??s no comparison. If you are looking for an efficient use of trading capital, this is it!

5): Price Movements Are Highly Predictable.

Although currency prices in the FX market may be volatile, they generally repeat themselves in relatively predictable cycles, creating trends. The strong trends that foreign currencies develop are a significant advantage for traders who use the correct "technical" methods.

Unlike stocks, currencies rarely spend much time in tight trading ranges and have the tendency to develop strong trends. Over 80% of volume is speculative in nature and, as a result, the market frequently overshoots and then corrects itself. As a technically-trained trader, you can easily identify new trends and breakouts, which provide for multiple opportunities to enter and exit positions.

6:) Commission-free Trading and Low Transaction Cost

When you trade FOREX, through one of our recommended brokers (this info is in our private resources section), you'll do it totally commission-free! These brokers don't charge commissions to trade or to maintain an account, and that goes for all clients trading the FOREX through them, regardless of your account balance or trading volume. Even Mini FX traders can buy and sell currencies online, commission-free.

What about trading fees? There are none of the usual fees to which futures and equity traders are accustomed -- no exchange or clearing fees, no N_F_A or S_E_C fees. Because currencies trade over-the-counter (OTC), via a global electronic network -- in FOREX, what you see is what you get, allowing you to make quick decisions on your trades without having to worry or account for fees that may affect your profit/loss or slippage.

In the equities markets, you must pay both a commission and exchange fees. The over-the-counter structure of the FX market eliminates exchange and clearing fees, which in turn lowers transaction costs.

So, if FOREX broker don't charge commissions, how do they make money? Like all traded financial products, over-the- counter currency trading involves a bid/ask spread, which represents the prices at which your counterparty is willing to trade. Because the currency market offers round-the-clock liquidity, you receive tight, competitive spreads both intra-day and night. Stock traders can be more vulnerable to liquidity risk and typically receive wider trading spreads, especially during after-hours trading.

7): Instantaneous Order Execution and Market Transparency.

Market transparency is highly desired in any trading environment. The greater the market transparency, the more efficient the market becomes. Unlike other markets where transparency is compromised (like in the Enron scandal), FOREX markets are highly transparent (i.e., analyzing countries, and having access to real-time research / news, is easier than companies).

Because of this transparency, as an FX trader, you will be able to exercise risk management strategies in accordance to the fundamental and technical indicators we teach at RapidForex.com

The FX market offers the highest level of market transparency out of all the financial markets. Because of this, order execution and fill confirmation usually occur in just 1-2 seconds. Markets that do not offer executable prices and force traders to absorb slippage obviously compromise the trader's profit potential considerably.

In the forex world, order execution is all-electronic and because you'll be trading via an Internet-based platform, instantaneous execution is routine. There are no exchanges, no traditional open-outcry pits, no floor brokers, and consequently, no delays.

Forex Trading - Advantages and Disadvantages

2009-03-23T20:07:00.002+02:00

What is Forex Trading?

Forex, or Foreign Exchange, is the simultaneous exchange of one country's currency for that of another. This market of exchange has more daily volume, both buyers and sellers, than any other in the world. Taking place in the major financial institutions across the globe, the forex market is open 24-hours a day.

Currencies are quoted in pairs. The first listed currency is known as the base currency, while the second is called the counter or quote currency. In the wholesale market, currencies are quoted using five significant numbers, with the last placeholder called a point or a pip.

The forex market is one of the most popular markets for speculation due to its enormous size, liquidity, and tendency for currencies to move in strong trends. An enticing aspect of trading currencies is the high degree of leverage available.

Advantages of forex trading

Leverage. Huge leverage is available in Forex trading, often up to 100:1 meaning that large profits can be generated from small margin deposits.

Liquidity. The enormous size and global trading of the forex markets means that the markets in the major currency pairs are very liquid making trade executions almost instant with little slippage.

Ability to go short. Since currency trading always involves buying one currency and selling another, there is no structural bias to the market. This means a trader has equal potential to profit in a rising or falling market.

Trends. Fundamentally, the value of a country's currency is determined by interest rates and the strength of the economy in relation to other countries. Currencies, therefore, have a greater tendency to trend until the fundamentals change.

Disadvantages of forex trading

Leverage. With huge leverage available to forex traders the danger is that positions which carry too much risk for the account size can be taken on, leading to margin calls. Effective money management rules must be adhered to.

Brokers. Retail traders must use a broker rather than dealing directly in the interbank market. The broker will be the counterparty in all transactions and is, effectively, making the market. They can, therefore, widen spreads or even refuse to trade during volatile trading conditions. To avoid dealing with brokers an alternative to forex is to use futures. See online futures trading for more details.

Spreads. As the retail trader must use a broker to trade, they cannot deal at the interbank rates. A broker will generally quote a fixed spread of 3-20 pips depending on the currency pair. The underlying interbank rate might be as little as 1 pip.

Forex is a very large market but for most retail traders dealing with brokers the odds are shifted against them. Online futures trading provides a much more level playing field for most traders who want to take part in forex trading.

Why Hedge Foreign Currency Risk?

2009-03-23T20:06:00.004+02:00

International commerce has rapidly increased as the internet has provided a new and more transparent marketplace for individuals and entities alike to conduct international business and trading activities. Significant changes in the international economic and political landscape have led to uncertainty regarding the direction of foreign exchange rates. This uncertainty leads to volatility and the need for an effective vehicle to hedge foreign exchange rate risk and/or interest rate changes while, at the same time, effectively ensuring a future financial position.

Each entity and/or individual that has exposure to foreign exchange rate risk will have specific foreign exchange hedging needs and this website can not possibly cover every existing foreign exchange hedging situation. Therefore, we will cover the more common reasons that a foreign exchange hedge is placed and show you how to properly hedge foreign exchange rate risk.

Foreign Exchange Rate Risk Exposure - Foreign exchange rate risk exposure is common to virtually all who conduct international business and/or trading. Buying and/or selling of goods or services denominated in foreign currencies can immediately expose you to foreign exchange rate risk. If a firm price is quoted ahead of time for a contract using a foreign exchange rate that is deemed appropriate at the time the quote is given, the foreign exchange rate quote may not necessarily be appropriate at the time of the actual agreement or performance of the contract. Placing a foreign exchange hedge can help to manage this foreign exchange rate risk.

Interest Rate Risk Exposure - Interest rate exposure refers to the interest rate differential between the two countries' currencies in a foreign exchange contract. The interest rate differential is also roughly equal to the "carry" cost paid to hedge a forward or futures contract. As a side note, arbitragers are investors that take advantage when interest rate differentials between the foreign exchange spot rate and either the forward or futures contract are either to high or too low. In simplest terms, an arbitrager may sell when the carry cost he or she can collect is at a premium to the actual carry cost of the contract sold. Conversely, an arbitrager may buy when the carry cost he or she may pay is less than the actual carry cost of the contract bought. Either way, the arbitrager is looking to profit from a small price discrepancy due to interest rate differentials.

Foreign Investment / Stock Exposure - Foreign investing is considered by many investors as a way to either diversify an investment portfolio or seek a larger return on investment(s) in an economy believed to be growing at a faster pace than investment(s) in the respective domestic economy. Investing in foreign stocks automatically exposes the investor to foreign exchange rate risk and speculative risk. For example, an investor buys a particular amount of foreign currency (in exchange for domestic currency) in order to purchase shares of a foreign stock. The investor is now automatically exposed to two separate risks. First, the stock price may go either up or down and the investor is exposed to the speculative stock price risk. Second, the investor is exposed to foreign exchange rate risk because the foreign exchange rate may either appreciate or depreciate from the time the investor first purchased the foreign stock and the time the investor decides to exit the position and repatriates the currency (exchanges the foreign currency back to domestic currency). Therefore, even if a speculative profit is achieved because the foreign stock price rose, the investor could actually net lose money if devaluation of the foreign currency occurred while the investor was holding the foreign stock (and the devaluation amount was greater than the speculative profit). Placing a foreign exchange hedge can help to manage this foreign exchange rate risk.

Hedging Speculative Positions - Foreign currency traders utilize foreign exchange hedging to protect open positions against adverse moves in foreign exchange rates, and placing a foreign exchange hedge can help to manage foreign exchange rate risk. Speculative positions can be hedged via a number of foreign exchange hedging vehicles that can be used either alone or in combination to create entirely new foreign exchange hedging strategies.

Forex Trading Can Be Like Day-trading

2009-03-23T20:06:00.002+02:00

Forex trading, or foreign currency trading, has become a bit of a craze of late, especially since it is something available to anyone who owns a computer. And anyone who is willing to put in some training time can profit from forex trading.

The forex market finds traders from all around the globe monitoring currency fluctuations, not unlike the way a day trader may monitor a stock's fluctuation on the Dow Jones.

In forex trading, a trader will pair two types of currency, for example the U.S. dollar and the British pound. As it requires more of one currency to purchase another, that currency loses value. Not unlike, stock trading, forex traders try to accumulate currency when it weakens in hopes of selling it when it goes up in value. Forex trading is not unlike the buy low, sell high approach found in stock trading.

The way a trader on the forex market exchange goes about acquiring currency is by giving a bid/ask quote, saying he is willing to buy, for example 1.6 marks per dollar and sell them at 1.625 per dollar. One must be a market trader to have access to this process. So most people who are forex trading on line buy the currency through a bank, where they'll pay a commission, then have to figure the commission paid to the bank into the calculation of their spread, or profit margin, when they sell it.

Forex trading is not an easy path to riches. And some people have lost considerable money in miscalculating the market. With its increased popularity, on some days the forex market exchange can see more than one trillion dollars exchanged. Packages for teaching a new forex trader how to invest in the market can range in price.

Fco Segurata is an specialist in forex trading. He helped many entrepreneurs to get more for their money.

The Secret of Reduced Margin Spreads

2009-03-23T20:05:00.001+02:00

One of the best kept secrets in trading is that of reduced margin spreads. You cannot name a trading method that provides more safety or a greater return on margin than does a reduced margin spread, while also being one of the least time- consuming ways to trade. Have you ever asked yourself why it is that many of the largest, most powerful traders trade spreads? I'm going to show you why!

WHAT IS A REDUCED MARGIN SPREAD?

Because of perceived lower volatility, exchanges grant reduced margins on certain types of spreads. Spreads consist of being long in one or more contracts of one market and short in one or more contracts of the same market but in different months-an Intramarket spread; or being long in one or more contracts of one market and short one or more contracts of a different market, and in the same or different months-an Intermarket spread.

DISTORTIONS ABOUT SPREADS

There are some distortions about spread trading that need to be dispelled. If we get them out of the way, I can show you the tremendous advantages spread trading has over any other form of trading.

It is said that spreads do not move as much as outright futures. I agree 100% with that statement. However, spreads trend much more often than outright futures, they trend much more dramatically than outright futures, and they trend for longer periods of time than do the outright futures. For these reasons you can make much more money with spreads than with the outrights.

The second distortion about spread trading goes like this: "You have to pay double commissions when you trade spreads." Yes! You have to pay two commissions for every spread you enter in the market. So what? You are trading two contracts instead of one. You pay two commissions because you are trading two separate contracts, one in one place and the other in an entirely different place. Paying two commissions for two separate trades is hardly unfair. Let me tell you what is unfair-paying a round turn commission for an option that expires worthless. Why don't you hear people complaining about that? You pay for a round turn, and you receive only half a turn. Doesn't make a lot of sense, does it?

ADVANTAGES OF SPREAD TRADING

There are so many advantages to trading reduced margin spreads that I hope I don't run out of room here before I can tell you all of them. Let's begin with return on margin, i.e., yield.

Yield: As I write this, the margin to trade an outright futures position in soybeans is $1,050, whereas a spread trade in soybeans requires only $250, only 23% as much. If soybean futures move one full point, that move is worth $50. If a soybean spread moves one full point, that move is worth $50. That means either a 5 point favorable move in soybean futures or a 5 point favorable move in a soybean spread earns the trader $250. However, the difference in return on margin is extraordinary: In the futures the return is $250/$1,050=23.8%. For the spread, the return is $250/$250=100%. Think about that!

Leverage: This leads us to the next benefit of spread trading-with the same amount of margin, you could have traded 4 soybean spreads instead of one soybean futures. How's that for leverage? Instead of making $250 on a five point move, you could have made $1,000. Reduced margin spreads offer a much more efficient use of your margin money.

Trend: Earlier I said that spreads tend to trend much more dramatically than outright futures contracts. Not only that, but they trend more often than do outright futures. I don't have room here to show you the dozens of sharply trending spreads that can regularly be found in the markets, so we'll have to settle for a recent one. You'll have to take my word for it that this sort of trending happens frequently when trading spreads.

Opportunities: Because spreads tend to trend more often and more dramatically than do outright futures contracts, they offer more opportunities for earning money, and they do so without the interference and noise caused by computerized trading, scalpers, and market movers. Spreads avoid the "noise" in the markets. There are numerous reduced margin spread opportunities, enough to keep almost any trader busy. And it is the lack of interference by market makers and shakers that leads us to one of the most important advantage of trading spreads, whether they be reduced margin or full margin.

Invisibility: One of the primary problems with any kind of trading in the outrights, whether it be in futures or stocks, is that of stop running. The insiders love it when they can see your order. Even when your entry or exit is held mentally, they know where it is. They are keenly aware of where people place their orders. That is why they love Fibonacci and Gann traders. They know precisely where those people will place their orders. The same is true for anyone who uses one of the more commonly known indicators. The insiders fade moving average crossovers, and so-called overbought and oversold-regardless of which indicator is used to show either of those conditions. They know when prices have reached the outer limits of the Bollinger Bands, and they know the location of supposed support and resistance, etc. But with spreads, they have no idea of the location of your orders. You are long in one market and short in another. Your position is invisible to the insiders. They can't run your stop, because you don't have one. You cannot place a stop order in the market when trading spreads! Your exit point is entirely mental; it exists exclusively in your head. In that respect, spread trading is a more pure form of trading. It is the closest thing in trading to having a level playing field. Could that be the reason you hardly ever hear about spread trading?

Liquidity: Attempting to trade in "thin" illiquid markets is one of the surest ways to encounter serious stop running and bizarre price movements. However, other than occasional problems with getting filled, spread trading does not suffer from a lack of liquidity-which in itself creates more trading opportunities. I would never consider taking an outright position in feeder cattle. Feeders are a thin, illiquid market normally best left to professional interests. But a reduced margin (feeder cattle)-(live cattle) spread is something I look for all the time. Some of the moves in this particular spread are incredible. They are worth hundreds and even thousands of dollars per spread, several times a year. They are highly seasonal in nature due to the birth and growth cycles of cattle. The same thing is true of spreading both live and feeder cattle against lean hogs. These spreads are seasonal, which brings us to the next great advantage to spread trading - seasonality.

Seasonality: Whereas seasonality doesn't always take place as planned, i.e., seasonality can come early, late, or not at all, but when it is happening, you can see it. It is obvious when a seasonal trade is working as expected. Seasonality is not subject to the whims of man. Seasonality is one of the strongest reasons for trading spreads. Crops are planted within a given period of time. Calves and piglets are born according to their birth cycle and they grow according to their growth cycle. Even futures based on financial instruments are seasonal, and many of them offer reduced margin spreads.

Backwardation: Along with seasonality comes the huge profits that can be made when an underlying goes into backwardation. This is true for any agricultural commodity as well as any financial instrument. I don't have space here to explain backwardation, but when it occurs, which is commonplace, the spread between front and back months widens tremendously, thereby offering marvelous profit-making opportunities to the spread trader. As if that weren't enough, the same opportunity becomes available when the period of backwardation ends and the relationship between front and back months returns to normal.

Probabilities: If we eliminate those trades in the outrights in which you get yourself whipsawed in a sideways market and maybe win or lose a little, the actual odds of winning on any trade is 50%. If you are long and prices move down, you lose. Conversely, if you are short and prices move up, you lose. It doesn't matter how accurate is your trade selection, the bottom line is that your chances of being right once you enter a trade are one in two. However, when you enter a spread you are not primarily concerned with the direction of prices. Your primary concern is with the direction of the spread.

With a spread you can make money when both legs of the spread are moving up, both legs are moving down, when both legs are moving sideways but one more so than the other, or best of all, when the leg you are long is moving up and the leg you are short is moving down! As long as the leg you are long is moving better than the leg you are short, you will have a winning trade. There is only one situation in which you can lose with a spread, and that is to be dead wrong about both legs. So with a spread you can win even if you were wrong about the direction of price movement, as long as you're not too wrong. The chart gives you an idea of what I'm talking about. Both months of this natural gas trade were moving down, but the spread was widening and moving up.

There are additional opportunities in spread trading, including spreads that require full margin. You can trade spreads with stock indexes, sector funds, and single stock futures. Did you know you can daytrade stock index spreads? These are topics for another day and another time.

Unfortunately, either by accident or design, much of the truth of spread trading has been lost over the years. There are many more aspects to it than I have touched on here. Furthermore, there are some wonderful and inexpensive tools available that make spread trading a delight. Spread trading is one of the most relaxed ways to trade. It rarely takes more than 1-2 hours of your time each day, and more often than not, we are talking about only minutes per day to seek out and trade the wonderful opportunities that are available in reduced margin spreads.

Adaptation to the Realities of the Market

2009-03-23T20:04:00.005+02:00

Do you think adaptation to the realities of the market is the most important thing?

Many times in the past I've written about the need to adapt, the need to be able to change your behavior relative to the market because the markets are ever changing. I've stated that mechanical systems may be workable, but for only a short time relative to the life of markets. You must learn to trade what you see and to understand what you see on a chart.

When I first began trading there was no such things as futures contracts for foreign currencies. Why didn't they exist? Because there was no need for them! In the 1970's all that changed when the US dollar went off the gold standard and began to float against other currencies. Following that, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange began to create currency futures to provide a place where currency traders could hedge the risks associated with dealing in foreign currencies. Some of these risks are direct and some are indirect. Direct risk is involved for those who deal directly in foreign exchange. Indirect risk involves companies who export or import and receive payments or make payments in the currency of another country. Ever since currency futures were created, they have been in a state of flux. More recently, for purposes of futures trading, currency gyrations have centered on a massive move away from currency futures to more direct trading in the forex markets. Currency futures, while maintaining their volume and open interest figures, are actually less liquid than they had been previously. Volume and open interest do not reveal the picture of what is happening in the currency futures pits. Volume and open interest levels are being maintained by fewer and fewer futures traders.

In the period from 1992 to the present, we've witnessed currency futures moving from "red-hot" to "cool" and now hot again insofar as speculators are concerned. Foreign exchange, which in 1992 was one of the hottest plays, first turned dull and then back again to exciting. That this has happened can be seen in areas of which most futures traders are ignorant. Five years ago foreign currency traders were being paid huge salaries and anyone with a track record could virtually name his price. Following that, currency traders were no longer in great demand. Now, again, there is a huge demand for successful currency traders. Currency futures are but a small representation of the $1.5 trillion dollar foreign exchange market. Professional currency traders use forex, forwarding contracts, derivatives of all kinds, and the futures pits, to deploy their various trading and hedging strategies. Looking at only the futures is like the blind man trying to tell what an elephant is like by feeling only the tusks.

In past years, foreign exchange desks at banks, insurance companies, brokers, and other institutions were seen closing down and firing hundreds of employees. Today, they are again looking for currency traders. In the 1990s, Midland Bank closed its foreign New York office laying off dozens of people. Frankfurt Bank had pulled out of New York and Tokyo closed down its foreign exchange desk. At that time, the world's largest foreign exchange trader was Citicorp. In the D-Mark alone, they shrank from 39 traders working at 17 different locations around the world to 4 D-Mark traders all working in one room. Keep in mind that these were traders who had been to a greater or lesser extent using the currency futures. The result at that time was that there were fewer big fluctuations in the currency futures than there once were and therefore much less profit.

However, today, just the opposite is happening. Central banks are presently making much greater interventions in the currency markets. They have stopped publishing targeted exchange rates. Such action by the central banks leaves currency speculators at a loss for what to do, and the result has been a huge surge in forex trading. Because today forex brokers abound and are actively marketing the idea of currency speculation, it is having a profound effect on the foreign exchange planning of individuals, companies, and nations.

If some day the major currencies would be the US dollar, the J-Yen and the euro, who would need thousands of traders to trade them? There would be far fewer currency misalignments to provide a basis for trading. But that is not the way the world is moving. The picture I just presented ignores the rise of China as a major economic force on the world scene. Almost certainly, the Chinese currency will become a major trading vehicle. The same is true for other emerging countries. Some of them will no doubt have important currencies from the point of view of world trade. But will these currencies be traded in the futures markets or in forex?

The changes in just this one area - currency trading - are an example of how things rapidly change and point out the need for traders to adapt. There have of course, been many other changes in recent years. The advent of all-electronic markets has produced markets of a completely different kind. Computers have brought about the ability to trade in various time frames. New exchanges have created new markets and new contracts - so many, in fact, that it is difficult to know exactly where to direct ones trading efforts. It is now possible to trade virtually around the clock. It seems that somewhere, some market is trading.

All the best in your trading,

A Fools Game

2009-03-23T20:04:00.002+02:00

I received an email this week with a question (below) which caused me to think about the wisdom of pursuing trading as a career. Regardless of your trading time span, the skills and concerns of active short-term trading are relevant to all market particpipants.

Question: "There are a lot of people who say that day trading is for "fools" and that it is very difficult to make a living from Day Trading. What are your opinions?"

Trading is like most business: it requires commitment and perseverance. It is never easy to make money, but people who have mastered a skill make it appear easy. The really successful pit traders that I have known made trading look very easy, tantalisingly easy; but they all had many years of experience behind them. For every successful trader there has probably been a few hundred who have tried and failed.

I think people fail at any business if they approach it without an appreciation and understanding of what is required for success. The majority of traders fail because they have no such appreciation and they have unrealistic expectations of themselves. Any trader who starts with the expectation of becoming an instant success is setting himself up for failure. No one would decide to become a golf pro and assume that they could just pick up a bag of clubs and start winning tournaments. Yet novice traders do this all the time.

Just to start with the understanding that trading is a skill that is developed over time, through experience, puts a novice trader way ahead of the competition.

There are 2 core skills in trading, first the ability to anticipate the market (read the market) and second, having the discipline to execute your plan. To learn to read the market you may as well use a trading simulator and only start to trade when you have demonstrated to yourself that you can anticipate the market. Discipline, though, has to be developed and tested in the real world. Discipline is really the crux of the matter and it is here that most traders fall down. Their failure is mainly due to the fact that they are not really aware of its importance. Just starting out as a trader with the intention of developing your discipline puts you way ahead of the average trader. If you can trade with discipline (i.e. stick to your own rules and limits) you are 95% there!

So I would say that for the average aspiring trader, trading is a fool's game; but for those of us who approach the business as a business, with a clear understanding of the unique challenges that trading offers, it is a rewarding and fulfilling career.

The Meaning of FOREX Price Charts and How to Use Them

2009-03-23T20:03:00.004+02:00

There is one very important factor that you should consider with great care if you are willing to become a successful, profitable Forex trader. This ever important factor that must be always present in the trader's portfolio, is the ability to read the charts.

The beauty of FOREX charts, as opposed to charts used for, say, daytrading stocks, is that they are pretty easy to interpret and use. They're a reflection of a slower-moving, stable economy (the one of a country) compared to the future and daily drama of company reports, Wall street analysts and shareholder demands.

And, unlike stocks, currency charts rarely spend much time in tight trading ranges and have the tendency to develop strong trends (even though the FX market may be volatile, it's more predictable). And, rather than tens of thousands of stocks to analyze, you only have a few mayor currencies to trade.

The most common types of price bars, used in FOREX trading, are the Bar Chart and the Candlestick chart:

Bars Charts - Price bars are a linear representation (a line)of a period of time. This enables the viewer to see a graphic representation summarizing the activity of a specific time frame. For example they can be one minute or five-minute time intervals depending on the system you are using. Each bar has similar characteristics and tells the viewer several important pieces of information. First, the highest point of the bar represents the highest price that was achieved during that time period. The lowest point of the bar represents the lowest price during the same period. Regular bars display a small dot on the left side of the bar which represents the opening price of the period and the small dot on the right side represents the closing price of the period.

Candlesticks - Japanese Candlesticks, or simply Candlesticks as they are now known, are used to represent the same information as Price bars. The only difference is that the difference between the open and close form the body of a box which is displayed with a color inside. A red color means that the close was lower than the open, and the blue color represents that the close was higher than the open. If the box has a line going up from the box it represents the high and is called the wick. If the box has a line going down from the box, it represents the low and is called the tail. Many interpretations can be made from these "candlesticks" and many books have been written on the art of interpreting these bars ( Visit: http://www.1-forex.com).

So, the main thing to keep in mind between the two types of price charts is this:

Candlestick charts are similar to bar charts in that the top tip of a vertical line represents the high and bottom tip represents the low. However, market activity between the OPEN and the CLOSE is represented differently by the use of candlestick bodies.

Because of their colored bodies, candles provide greater visual detail in their chart patterns than bar charts. Which is why many experts recommend you become intimately familiar with Candlestick charts.

Writing A Trading Plan

2009-03-23T20:03:00.002+02:00

All professional traders have a trading plan. Trading futures is a zero sum game and those with a plan (and the discipline to apply it) will succeed over those that have no plan. A plan details the particular market anomaly that you intend to exploit - your edge. Human emotion creates anomalies - essentially, the fear and the greed of those that have no trading plan.

Creating a trading plan and rigidly applying that plan allows the professional trader to eliminate emotional responses from his trading.

Let's look at what your written trading plan should cover:

Trading concept - What anomaly is your trading strategy intending to exploit?

Timeframe - The shorter the timeframe the more trades that can be made. However short term trading leads to lower reward:risk ratio's and higher commission costs.

Instrument - There are many different ways to trade essentially the same idea - options, futures, exchange traded funds etc. Which offers the most reward for your trading concept?

Entry - How will you open your trade?

Exit - How will you close your trade - A stop loss should be placed at a point where the trading concept become invalid, this could be a specific price or a certain length of time. A profit exit must also be established - again either a certain target price or a timed exit.

Money Management - How much capital is required to trade the strategy and how much should be risked on each trade to maximise returns whilst minimising the risk of blowing the account?

End of Day Routine - At the end of each day every trade should be compared to the trading plan and any variances should be addressed. Remember the plan is their for a reason and you must trade it exactly. If a change is required then it should be properly tested before being added to the plan. No decisions should be made whilst a trade is live.

Brokers - Which broker will you use and how will you trade? Automating a trading plan through the broker's API will help to eliminate any emotional responses.

Your plan will require constant revision as the market dynamics change. If you have noticed a market anomaly then it's very like that many of your competitors have as well.

"If you don't know where you are going, any road will take you there." Lewis Carroll

How To Handle A String Of Losses

2009-03-23T20:01:00.001+02:00

Everybody hates to lose and unfortunately no one is blessed with the ability of foresight, therefore losses are an unavoidable part of trading. When we enter a trade we will either be right, or wrong, and even if we broke-even we'd still be classed as being wrong - as nobody enters into a trade just to break-even! When unsuccessful traders encounter a string of losses they begin to engage in self-destructive patterns that help them escape the pain they are experiencing.

In this article we bring to light these self-destructive actions that can help you realize what you are doing before it takes hold of your physical health. If you find yourself already engaged in these patterns hopefully this article can help you to get you back on track as quickly as possible.

The Destructive Patterns

If you find yourself caught in a string of losses or a bad performing week/month be sure to monitor your behavior. It is during this time that you will be at your most vulnerable. You will begin to indulge in activities that at first seem harmless, but upon excessive use (or in time), begin to cause physical damage to your health.

Ask yourself the following question: during during drawdown periods do I find myself over-indulging in these activities:

> Food (especially junk food - eg. chocolate, ice-cream, chips)?

> Sex (includes viewing pornography)?

> Alcohol?

> Drugs (includes excessive smoking)?

> Laziness (find it difficult to wake up in the morning)?

> Entertainment?

All of the above taken in excessive doses can be detrimental to your own physical health (some even in small doses!).

These activities above during your losing period are only covering up the pain of confronting the true issue, and your body tries to rid the emotional pain by trying to "fix" it with physical pleasures. Unfortunately it is going about it in the wrong way, so what should you do?

Firstly... REALIZE WHAT YOU ARE DOING AND STOP IT!

You need to realize what you're doing and you need to STOP doing it immediately! You can either decide to stop, or you'll be forced to stop when your body eventually breaks down and prevents you from any form of movement. It will be much more beneficial to you in the long-term if you can decide to stop *NOW*.

Once you have stopped you now need to figure out a way to solve the pain - not by cutting out or neglecting it, but by staring it in the face. Bring your problems out into the light, be honest with yourself. There can be no growth without pain, you are experiencing the emotional pain, now it is time to find the error and therefore your growth.

Begin Your Review

The review process begins in two separate areas: You & Your System. Here are some checklists for you to go through to find out where the problem could lie:

"YOUR SYSTEM" CHECKLIST

> Was your system thoroughly tested prior to trading it (or paper traded if you do not have the capacity to programme your system into backtesting software)?

> Did you test with out-of-sample data?

> Do you even have a system???? If you do not, how do you even know if the method that you are trading is even profitable??

> Is your system's code correct?

> Did you over-optimize your system? (what have we discussed about over-indulging?)

> Did you paper trade your system prior to placing capital on it?

> Did you trade with a small amount of capital prior to placing the rest of your funds on it?

> Do you know the system's limitations?

> Did you properly drill your system? (see our blog article on why I am the system designer from hell)

"YOU" CHECKLIST

> Is the current drawdown you are exhibiting with your system normal?

> Are you comfortable with your system's historical drawdown performance?

> Are you fully aware of the risks involved with your system and the instrument(s) you are trading?

> Are you trading with funds that you are comfortable risking?

> Are you relying too heavily on your performance?

> Have you set realistic goals?

As you can see there are generally two areas that you need to explore: the mechanical aspect - your system - and the emotional aspect - you. Both can be responsible for making the way you feel the way you do. It will either be an error on the system's side with how the system was tested and/or programmed, or it can be your own psychological profile not being comfortable with the system's performance.

Your Answers = Change = Your Growth

What steps should we now take? Now that we have begun a corrective process where we have stopped the evil nature of our over-indulging ways to take control we should continue our "corrective nature" by invoking our findings and taking ACTION in correcting our errors.

If the problem was mechanical - fix it, if the problem was emotional either go about setting up new thought patterns, or change your current system. The answers lie in whether you need to expand your knowledge in system development, or whether you need to grow emotionally as a person.

Unfortunately there is no easy road, and even if there was everybody would be doing it. Hopefully this article has made you ponder over some of your behaviors during drawdown periods, be sure to keep an eye on yourself and as always take care of your body, because there's no use in making all the money in the world when you don't have the physical capacity to enjoy it.

Why You Should Invest

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Investing has become increasingly important over the years, as the future of social security benefits becomes unknown.

People want to insure their futures, and they know that if they are depending on Social Security benefits, and in some cases retirement plans, that they may be in for a rude awakening when they no longer have the ability to earn a steady income. Investing is the answer to the unknowns of the future.

You may have been saving money in a low interest savings account over the years. Now, you want to see that money grow at a faster pace. Perhaps you’ve inherited money or realized some other type of windfall, and you need a way to make that money grow. Again, investing is the answer.

Investing is also a way of attaining the things that you want, such as a new home, a college education for your children, or expensive ‘toys.’ Of course, your financial goals will determine what type of investing you do.

If you want or need to make a lot of money fast, you would be more interested in higher risk investing, which will give you a larger return in a shorter amount of time. If you are saving for something in the far off future, such as retirement, you would want to make safer investments that grow over a longer period of time.

The overall purpose in investing is to create wealth and security, over a period of time. It is important to remember that you will not always be able to earn an income… you will eventually want to retire.

You also cannot count on the social security system to do what you expect it to do. As we have seen with Enron, you also cannot necessarily depend on your company’s retirement plan either. So, again, investing is the key to insuring your own financial future, but you must make smart investments!

What Is Your Investment Style?

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Knowing what your risk tolerance and investment style are will help you choose investments more wisely. While there are many different types of investments that one can make, there are really only three specific investment styles – and those three styles tie in with your risk tolerance. The three investment styles are conservative, moderate, and aggressive.

Naturally, if you find that you have a low tolerance for risk, your investment style will most likely be conservative or moderate at best. If you have a high tolerance for risk, you will most likely be a moderate or aggressive investor. At the same time, your financial goals will also determine what style of investing you use.

If you are saving for retirement in your early twenties, you should use a conservative or moderate style of investing – but if you are trying to get together the funds to buy a home in the next year or two, you would want to use an aggressive style.

Conservative investors want to maintain their initial investment. In other words, if they invest $5000 they want to be sure that they will get their initial $5000 back. This type of investor usually invests in common stocks and bonds and short term money market accounts.

An interest earning savings account is very common for conservative investors.
A moderate investor usually invests much like a conservative investor, but will use a portion of their investment funds for higher risk investments. Many moderate investors invest 50% of their investment funds in safe or conservative investments, and invest the remainder in riskier investments.

An aggressive investor is willing to take risks that other investors won’t take. They invest higher amounts of money in riskier ventures in the hopes of achieving larger returns – either over time or in a short amount of time. Aggressive investors often have all or most of their investment funds tied up in the stock market.

Again, determining what style of investing you will use will be determined by your financial goals and your risk tolerance. No matter what type of investing you do, however, you should carefully research that investment. Never invest without having all of the facts!

Understanding Bonds

2009-03-23T04:59:00.002+02:00

There are certain things you must understand about bonds before you start investing in them. Not understanding these things may cause you to purchase the wrong bonds, at the wrong maturity date.

The three most important things that must be considered when purchasing a bond include the par value, the maturity date, and the coupon rate.

The par value of a bond refers to the amount of money you will receive when the bond reaches its maturity date. In other words, you will receive your initial investment back when the bond reaches maturity.

The maturity date is of course the date that the bond will reach its full value. On this date, you will receive your initial investment, plus the interest that your money has earned.

Corporate and State and Local Government bonds can be ‘called’ before they reach their maturity, at which time the corporation or issuing Government will return your initial investment, along with the interest that it has earned thus far. Federal bonds cannot be ‘called.’

The coupon rate is the interest that you will receive when the bond reaches maturity. This number is written as a percentage, and you must use other information to find out what the interest will be. A bond that has a par value of $2000, with a coupon rate of 5% would earn $100 per year until it reaches maturity.

Because bonds are not issued by banks, many people don’t understand how to go about buying one. There are two ways this can be done.

You can use a broker or brokerage firm to make the purchase for you or you can go directly to the Government. If you use a brokerage, you will more than likely be charged a commission fee. If you want to use a broker, shop around for the lowest commissions!

Purchasing directly through the Government isn’t nearly as hard as it once was. There is a program called Treasury Direct which will allow you to purchase bonds and all of your bonds will be held in one account, that you will have easy access to. This will allow you to avoid using a broker or brokerage firm.

The Importance of Diversification

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“Don’t put all of your eggs in one basket!” You’ve probably heard that over and over again throughout your life…and when it comes to investing, it is very true. Diversification is the key to successful investing. All successful investors build portfolios that are widely diversified, and you should too!

Diversifying your investments might include purchasing various stocks in many different industries. It may include purchasing bonds, investing in money market accounts, or even in some real property. The key is to invest in several different areas – not just one.

Over time, research has shown that investors who have diversified portfolios usually see more consistent and stable returns on their investments than those who just invest in one thing. By investing in several different markets, you will actually be at less risk also.

For instance, if you have invested all of your money in one stock, and that stock takes a significant plunge, you will most likely find that you have lost all of your money. On the other hand, if you have invested in ten different stocks, and nine are doing well while one plunges, you are still in reasonably good shape.

A good diversification will usually include stocks, bonds, real property, and cash. It may take time to diversify your portfolio. Depending on how much you have to initially invest, you may have to start with one type of investment, and invest in other areas as time goes by.

This is okay, but if you can divide your initial investment funds among various types of investments, you will find that you have a lower risk of losing your money, and over time, you will see better returns.

Experts also suggest that you spread your investment money evenly among your investments. In other words, if you start with $100,000 to invest, invest $25,000 in stocks, $25,000 in real property, $25,000 in bonds, and put $25,000 in an interest bearing savings account.

Stabilize Your Current Situation Before You Invest

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Before you consider investing in any type of market, you should really take a long hard look at your current situation. Investing in the future is a good thing, but clearing up bad – or potentially bad – situations in the present is more important.

Pull your credit report. You should do this once each year. It is important to know what is on your report, and to clear up any negative items on your credit report as soon as possible. If you’ve set aside $25,000 to invest, but you have $25,000 worth of bad credit, you are better off cleaning up the credit first!

Next, look at what you are paying out each month, and get rid of expenses that are not necessary. For instance, high interest credit cards are not necessary. Pay them off and get rid of them. If you have high interest outstanding loans, pay them off as well.

If nothing else, exchange the high interest credit card for one with lower interest and refinance high interest loans with loans that are lower interest. You may have to use some of your investment funds to take care of these matters, but in the long run, you will see that this is the wisest course of action.

Get yourself into good financial shape – and then enhance your financial situation with sound investments.

It doesn’t make sense to start investing funds if your bank balance is always running low or if you are struggling to pay your monthly bills. Your investment dollars will be better spent to rectify adverse financial issues that affect you each day.

While you are in the process of clearing up your present financial situation, make it a point to educate yourself about the various types of investments.

This way, when you are in a financially sound situation, you will be armed with the knowledge that you need to make equally sound investments in your future.

Long Term Investments for the Future

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If you are ready to invest money for a future event, such as retirement or a child’s college education, you have several options. You do not have to invest in risky stocks or ventures. You can easily invest your money in ways that are very safe, which will show a decent return over a long period of time.

First consider bonds. There are various types of bonds that you can purchase. Bond’s are similar to Certificates of Deposit. Instead of being issued by banks, however, bonds are issued by the Government. Depending on the type of bonds that you buy, your initial investment may double over a specific period of time.

Mutual funds are also relatively safe. Mutual funds exist when a group of investors put their money together to buy stocks, bonds, or other investments. A fund manager typically decides how the money will be invested. All you need to do is find a reputable, qualified broker who handles mutual funds, and he or she will invest your money, along with other client’s money. Mutual funds are a bit riskier than bonds.

Stocks are another vehicle for long term investments. Shares of stocks are essentially shares of ownership in the company you are investing in. When the company does well financially, the value of your stock rises. However, if a company is doing poorly, your stock value drops. Stocks, of course, are even riskier than Mutual funds. Even though there is a greater amount of risk, you can still purchase stock in sound companies, such as G & E Electric, and sleep at night knowing that your money is relatively safe.

The important thing is to do your research before investing your money for long term gain. When purchasing stocks you should choose stocks that are well established. When you look for a mutual fund to invest in, choose a broker that is well established and has a proven track record. If you aren’t quite ready to take the risks involved with mutual funds or stocks, at the very least invest in bonds that are guaranteed by the Government.

Investment Strategy

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Because investing is not a sure thing in most cases, it is much like a game – you don’t know the outcome until the game has been played and a winner has been declared. Anytime you play almost any type of game, you have a strategy. Investing isn’t any different – you need an investment strategy.

An investment strategy is basically a plan for investing your money in various types of investments that will help you meet your financial goals in a specific amount of time. Each type of investment contains individual investments that you must choose from. A clothing store sells clothes – but those clothes consist of shirts, pants, dresses, skirts, undergarments, etc. The stock market is a type of investment, but it contains different types of stocks, which all contain different companies that you can invest in.

If you haven’t done your research, it can quickly become very confusing – simply because there are so many different types of investments and individual investments to choose from. This is where your strategy, combined with your risk tolerance and investment style all come into play.

If you are new to investments, work closely with a financial planner before making any investments. They will help you develop an investment strategy that will not only fall within the bounds of your risk tolerance and your investment style, but will also help you achieve your financial goals.

Never invest money without having a goal and a strategy for reaching that goal! This is essential. Nobody hands their money over to anyone without knowing what that money is being used for and when they will get it back! If you don’t have a goal, a plan, or a strategy, that is essentially what you are doing! Always start with a goal and a strategy for reaching that goal!