WSJ.com: The Numbers Guy

Statistics Time Travel Tackles What-Ifs

Tue, 10 Nov 2009 20:30:44 EST

The debates often take place on barstools and can devolve into a bleary tedium: If Babe Ruth were alive today, would he still be among the greatest to have ever played baseball?

Coincidental Obscenity Deemed Extremely Dubious

Thu, 05 Nov 2009 09:39:35 EST

Odds are California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger meant to deliver more than one message in a recent veto to the state Legislature, mathematicians say.

Numerology: When Digits Get Personal

Thu, 29 Oct 2009 17:18:05 EDT

The idea that 7 is greater than 13 -- that some numbers are luckier than others -- makes no sense to some people. Such biases can cause deep divisions.

An Ill-Conceived Health-Care Ranking

Wed, 21 Oct 2009 11:38:37 EDT

During the health-care debate, one damning statistic keeps popping up: The U.S. ranks 37th in the world in health care. But the ranking is dated and flawed.

Spanking Research Needs a Time Out

Wed, 14 Oct 2009 21:55:35 EDT

Three studies on spanking claimed that it impairs cognitive development in children. Yet statistical analysis of spanking's effects are clouded by many factors.

Some See Oddity in Pollster's Surveys

Wed, 07 Oct 2009 00:30:06 EDT

A recent imbroglio has shed light on an inconvenient truth about widely reported political polls: Verifying their numbers is nearly impossible.

The Myth of Baby Booms During Busts

Wed, 30 Sep 2009 02:37:39 EDT

Is economic chaos really the ultimate aphrodisiac? Probably not. In fact, it is more likely that prosperity, not poverty, is good for baby-making.

Coincidences Can Be Expected

Wed, 23 Sep 2009 20:15:04 EDT

History isn't supposed to repeat itself in the lottery. But a 1-in-5.2 million shot came through in Bulgaria, as six winning numbers turned up in consecutive drawings.

To Count Stimulus Jobs, Help Wanted

Wed, 16 Sep 2009 11:55:26 EDT

When states report jobs created by stimulus, the numbers will fall short of projections -- reflecting how hard it is to attribute new jobs to one cause.

Medicine's Dangerous Guessing Game

Thu, 10 Sep 2009 06:03:17 EDT

Different ways of analyzing the outcomes of medical clinical trials can lead to sharply divergent results. A look at the methods behind the studies and the implications for patients.

Bleak Cancer Reports Mask Advances

Wed, 02 Sep 2009 00:14:37 EDT

Grim reports about the war on cancer have masked significant signs of progress against the disease.

New Cars Leave MPG Standard Behind

Fri, 28 Aug 2009 13:45:28 EDT

New hybrid electric cars could spark an overhaul of the miles-per-gallon standard, a number that doesn't tell consumers enough about the next generation of vehicles.

Justice -- Wait for It -- on Checkout Line

Wed, 19 Aug 2009 04:37:34 EDT

In the evolution of techniques to speed shoppers to checkout, most supermarkets are near the back of the line.

Forecast: Next Year to Arrive in 2010-ish

Wed, 12 Aug 2009 05:05:27 EDT

Industry forecasts stumbled badly last year amid the recession, highlighting an uncomfortable reality about predicting the future: It is hardest when it is most important.

Flaws of Web's Election-Fraud Hunters

Fri, 10 Jul 2009 11:31:41 EDT

For the Internet's election-fraud hunters, the Web provides quick access to numbers and speedy dissemination of findings. Yet their methods are unproven and risky.

Sum Help: Search Engine for Mathletes

Thu, 18 Jun 2009 23:13:59 EDT

A new search engine called Wolfram Alpha automates arithmetic drudgery for students. But teachers worry it does homework, too.

A Pandemic of Confusion About Flu's Death Rates

Wed, 13 May 2009 23:23:12 EDT

The CDC's daily figure of 100 flu-related deaths is flawed, since the tallies are based on incomplete death certificates, but that hasn't stopped the spread of the erroneous statistic.

Work-Visa Numbers Get Played

Tue, 31 Mar 2009 23:18:07 EDT

Advocates on both sides of the immigration debate misuse data on whether H-1B visas spur or abate job creation.

Oscar Voting System Poses Problems

Sun, 22 Feb 2009 05:38:17 EST

The selection of Academy Award nominees and winners is flawed, but the reformers can't seem to elect a better system.

Obesity Study Looks Thin

Thu, 14 Aug 2008 23:35:00 EDT

In 40 years, every single American could be overweight, according to a recent study. Employing that same logic, 13 out of every 10 adult Americans by then won't have landlines.

And the Survey Says...

Thu, 19 Jun 2008 23:34:00 EDT

The "Family Feud" is one of the few neutral parties measuring what Americans think when they're not thinking about politics. Its surveys are designed with rigor, but pollsters aren't entirely won over by the methodology.

Counting the Centenarians

Thu, 10 Apr 2008 22:40:00 EDT

Reaching 100 years of age is a milestone celebrated in local newspapers, on the "Today" show and in greeting cards from the White House. But counting how many people are celebrating these birthdays is tricky. (Discuss)

Web Use in China, U.S. Is Tough to Measure

Mon, 31 Mar 2008 20:46:00 EDT

The news that China recently surpassed the U.S. in Web users garnered a lot of attention, but the U.S. actually is still ahead by some counts. (Discuss)

Can You Read as Well As a Fifth-Grader? Check the Formula

Sun, 16 Mar 2008 21:30:00 EDT

The readability formula used by Microsoft Word purports to represent the text's appropriate grade level. But its results are questionable. (Forum)

Election Handicappers Use Risky Tool

Thu, 14 Feb 2008 21:25:00 EST

Web sites mash up polling data in political races to smooth out aberrant results, but the polls themselves are often too different from each other to deserve equal weight.

Counting Repeat Sex Offenders

Thu, 24 Jan 2008 23:38:00 EST

Conventional wisdom says people released after serving time for sex crimes are likely to strike again. The numbers aren't as certain.

How Much Water Goes Into a Burger?

Thu, 10 Jan 2008 21:51:00 EST

A fast-food quarter-pounder requires 1,300 gallons of water to produce, but a loaf of bread uses up 150 gallons. The message, which supports calls to eat less meat, is broadly correct, but the number itself is disputed.

Coming Soon: 'The Number 24'

Mon, 26 Feb 2007 00:33:00 EST

"The Number 23," a new thriller starring Jim Carrey, shows how just about any number can appear to have eerie properties if you look hard enough. Such as the number 24. Plus, join a discussion.

Farm Group Sows Questionable Stat

Thu, 15 Feb 2007 08:44:00 EST

A trade group for farmers is promoting a holiday aimed at "celebrating the continued affordability of food." But the group uses some murky math to crunch the numbers on how much Americans spend on food. Plus, join a discussion.

Nielsen's New College Numbers

Fri, 09 Feb 2007 23:22:00 EST

Nielsen is expanding its TV ratings to include college students living in dorms, a group that had previously been excluded from the research firm's numbers. The students are already having a huge impact on ratings for some shows, but national stats are being based on a survey of just 130 viewers. Plus, join a discussion.