• Today, it fell 14.28 points, or 0.14%

• Up for the third week in a row.

• Longest weekly winning streak since the four week ended August 7.

• Up 6.23% over the three week period.

Nasdaq Composite, down 21.84 points this week, or 1.01% to 2146.04.

• Today, it fell 10.78 points, or 0.50%.

• Breaks a two week winning streak.

• Fell three straight trading days.

S&P 500, down 2.10 points, or 0.19% to 1091.38.

• Today, it fell 3.52 points, or 0.32%

• First weekly loss in three weeks.

• Down for the third day in a row.

• Today, it is down $0.74 or 0.96%.

• Up two of the last three weeks.

Comex gold for November delivery gained $30.30 a troy ounce this week, or 2.71% to $1146.40.

• A new Comex record closing high.

• Today, it is up $5.00, or 0.44%.

• Up for the sixth consecutive session and 14 of the last 15 sessions.

• Longest streak of its kind in its exchange traded history – up 14 of 15 days

  The boost from the federal tax credit for first-time buyers is expected to be in full force when existing home sales are reported Monday. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires Friday expect that resales rose another 2.3% to an annual rate of 5.7 million in October. Data on existing homes cover forced sales and foreclosures, and those distressed sales have been powering the market.

  That shift in the sales mix is probably why new-home sales, to be reported Wednesday, are expected to have slipped in October. The median forecast is that new-home sales fell 1.7% to 395,000.

  Economists also expect some easing in the fall of home prices. The S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city home price index is expected to be down 9.3% in the year ended in September. That’s better than the 11.3% drop posted in August.

  The mood in the important consumer sector will also get aired next week. The Conference Board’s consumer-confidence index, out Tuesday, is expected to be little changed at 47.5 in November, from 47.7 in October. And the final November reading of the Reuters/University of Michigan’s sentiment index, out Wednesday, is expected at 66.5, barely different from the preliminary 66.0 reading.

  Consumers, however, may get some joy Wednesday if economists’ expectations on jobless claims pan out. The median forecast is that new filings slipped to 498,000 for the week of Nov. 21. Excluding the holiday-shortened week of Jan. 3, that would be the first time since November 2008 that claims were under 500,000.

The yields of longer-dated Treasurys might be the place to look for the answer, say analysts with BNP Paribas.

Sebastien Galy, senior currency strategist at BNP Paribas, says that some of his firm’s research indicates that foreign central banks are already putting more money into commercial banks and cramming at the shorter end of the Treasury curve, below the one-year mark.

“You do that because you don’t necessarily trust the U.S. government and you’re afraid they’re going to inflate away their debt,” Mr. Galy said of such positioning.

So, was Mr. Obama able to credibly tell the Chinese — who have roughly $2 trillion in reserves — that dollar depreciation isn’t part of the U.S. game plan?

“The next few weeks will show if the U.S. visit in Asia has been successful and the bond market will provide the answer,” wrote BNP Paribas analysts. “Declining bond yields for reasons other than investors shifting assets from equities into bonds would tell that Asian official accounts [are] investing in U.S. bonds.”

The U.S. dollar has become a huge ‘carry trade’ vehicle for all risky assets. Historically, there is no correlation at all between the DXY index (the U.S. dollar index) and the S&P 500. In the past eight months, that correlation is 90%. Ditto for credit spreads — zero correlation from 1995 to 2008, but now it has surged to 90% since April. There was historically a 70% inverse correlation between the U.S. dollar and emerging markets, such as the Brazilian Bovespa, and that correlation has also increased to 90% since the spring. Even the VIX index, which historically has had no better than a 20% correlation with the U.S. dollar, has now sent that correlation surge to 90%. Amazing. The inverse correlations between the U.S. dollar and gold and the U.S. dollar and commodities were always strong, but these too have strengthened and now stand at over 90%.

• Down today 51.79 points, or 0.54%.

• Down for four consecutive trading days and six of the last seven.

• Down for four consecutive weeks.

• Down 785.31 points, or 7.64%, over the last four weeks.

Shanghai Composite, up 120.70 points this week, or 3.79%, to 3308.35.

• Down today 12.27 points, or 0.37%.

• Up for three consecutive weeks and six of the past seven.

• Up 312.50 points, or 10.43%, over the last three weeks.

FTSE 100, down 44.97 points this week, or 0.85%, to 5251.41.

• Today, it is down 16.29 points, or 0.31%.

• Snaps a two weeks winnings streak.

• Down for four consecutive trading days.

DJ STOXX 600, down 4.18 points this week, or 1.69%, to 243.62.

• Today, it is down 1.90 points, or 0.77%.

• Down for four consecutive trading days.

  Likely, there’s a bit of both going on, and it’s gotten investors increasingly skittish as they try to figure out how much consumer spending they can count on this year, and how much of it is already priced in to stocks.

 With consumer spending accounting for about two-thirds of all demand in the economy, the holiday season is considered a make-or-break event that may determine whether this year’s rally, which has the Dow Jones Industrial Average up some 58% from its 12-year closing low in March, can be sustained.

  Participants say they are more cautious now than they have been in months. Part of that is because while the majority of retailers and restaurants that reported over the past two weeks topped Wall Street’s estimates for the third quarter, and many of them even boosted their forecasts for the fourth quarter and/or year, a number of those boosted forecasts failed to meet analysts’ estimates.

  Among the consumer companies whose forecasts disappointed the market: Home Depot Inc. (HD), Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT), TJX Cos. (TJX), J.C. Penney Co (JCP), Kohl’s Corp. (KSS), Macy’s Inc. (M), Jack in the Box Inc. (JACK) and Gymboree Corp. (GYMB).

  “They are trying to temper expectations,” said Jack McPherson, portfolio manager of the Eagle Small Cap Core Value Fund. “Companies may be able to take some short-term pain in their stocks now to maybe get a better positive surprise later.”

  Meanwhile, Wall Street may have gotten too bullish, McPherson said, noting analysts are trying to improve the accuracy of their forecasts given that their projections were well below the actual results of many companies this year. As they transition from being so conservative, analysts risk moving too far in the other direction.

  In aggregate, analysts’ 2010 estimates for companies in the consumer-discretionary sector of the Standard & Poor’s 500 have jumped 2.81% from where they were Sept. 30, according to Howard Silverblatt, senior index analyst with S&P. That’s greater than the 1.9% rise in estimates over the same
period for companies in the S&P 500 overall. Energy is the only sector that has seen a bigger rise in estimates since Sept. 30.

  Still, Chris Armbruster, senior research analyst at Al Frank Asset Management, said he believes Wall Street estimates haven’t gotten too high. “We generally view the outsized reactions to small deviances from estimates as opportunities given our longer time horizon,” he said.

  One thing is for sure: The forecasts from consumer companies have heightened
concerns about holiday spending.

  “What more people are worried about with the consumer is, is the consumer going to be there this holiday?” said Chris Colarik, a portfolio manager with Glenmede in Philadelphia. “There’s definitely a lot of concern about the consumer-related companies and what kind of promotions they’re going to have to do in order to generate sales and how that will impact their margins.”

If the Dow Jones Industrial Average’s recent 34-point decline holds through the closing bell, it will be on a three-day slide, the longest decline since a four-day stretch from Sept. 29 to Oct. 2. The average lost 3.1% during that span, while it is down 1.3% during its latest rough patch, including Friday’s trading so far.

The September-October slide was driven in part by quarterly reshuffling of portfolios as the year’s third period drew to a close, including stellar returns that led some investors to take profits at the last minute. There was also a trifecta of weaker-than-expected readings of consumer confidence, manufacturing, and employment to fuel the selling.

The latest releases also haven’t been stellar, but traders say that have seen at least a few glimmers of hope. For instance, inflation is in check and the Philadelphia Federal Reserve’s latest reading of regional manufacturing was better than expected.

“If anything, this looks to me more like a technical correction,” with recent 13-month highs in major stock indexes inducing profit-taking along the lines of the quarter-end gains in late September, said Tom Alexander, president of Alexander Trading. He added: “We’re also seeing how the last money into the market is often the most nervous money,” leading to quick selloffs on any intraday upticks in the major indexes.

Many traders have also shrugged off the market’s recent struggles because of the low volume that has accompanied them, suggesting little conviction that a full-blown return to a bear market is underway. There was about 5.9 billion shares of composite activity in New York Stock Exchange-listed companies during the market’s four-day pullback around the end of the third quarter. That was in-line with the year-to-date daily average at the time.

By comparison, the market has averaged 4.5 billion shares in the last two full trading sessions, with another subpar tally likely on the way at Friday’s closing bell.

One sign of concern: Prices are rising on so-called credit-default swaps tied to Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Italy. Investors buy these swaps — which pay off when countries default — as a kind of insurance against bad government debt.

Meanwhile, in the bond market, the “spread,” or difference, between the yield on Greek government bonds and relatively safe German debt has jumped significantly in recent days as investors have grown wary of taking on risk — especially Greek risk.

While such signals aren’t flashing as brightly as they did earlier this year, they suggest investors are worried about how Europe’s peripheral players will tackle the twin challenges of a tepid economic recovery and dire public finances in the months ahead.

“The weakest of the European Union’s membership ranks remain vulnerable to the sometimes jarring disconnect between E.U. economic hopes and politics on the ground,” said Scott MacDonald, director of research at boutique investment bank Aladdin Capital, in a recent note. “Investors should expect more volatility,” he said.

Countries like Greece and Ireland are taking much of the heat.

Greek government bond prices have taken a beating lately because of growing concern about the country’s public finances and banks.

Earlier this month, the European Commission, the bloc’s executive arm, chastised Greece over the shoddy state of its finances, directing the government to present regular progress on improvements. Last month, the Greek government said that its deficit will hit 12.7% of national income this year — the biggest in the 16-nation euro-currency zone and twice previous forecasts from just two months ago.

Meantime, credit ratings firm Moody’s Investors Service warned the Greek and Portuguese governments last month of possible future downgrades of their government debt.

“The problem in Greece is the lack of political will to force through painful adjustments,” Aladdin’s Mr. MacDonald says.

With the year now winding to a close, investors may be starting to take stock of the tough road ahead for Europe’s weakest links and each government’s relative ability to rise to the challenge. Just as they picked winners and losers among banks months ago, investors are now drawing even finer distinctions between stronger and weaker players in the euro zone.

Since Nov. 10, the cost of insuring a Greek government bond against a default for five years has jumped 22% to around 180,500 euros annually from 148,000 euros, while the same costs for Ireland are 168,000 euros from about 147,500 euros. Italy and Spain’s credit-insurance prices, meanwhile, have jumped about 18% over the same time period.

To be sure, the rising insurance costs in the derivatives market are simply another sign that investors have been wary of taking on risk in recent days. Stock markets have struggled a little in recent days too, with the pan-European Stoxx 600 index falling 0.5% Friday to 244.20, down about 3.5% since Nov. 13.

Still, signs in credit markets suggest investors are turning their eyes to the expected surge of government debt that will hit the market next year as countries in Europe try to borrow their way out of the downturn without puncturing their international credibility.

“There’s no red warning light yet,” says Steve Barrow, an analyst at Standard Bank in London, in a note. “But higher (credit-default swap) prices … could prove a sign that risk is rising a bit.”