Past award voting was studied by Justin Kubatko, creator of Basketball Reference, to determine which factors are most important for winning the honor. “In the end, four factors proved to be much more important than anything else: team wins, points per game, rebounds per game, and assists per game,” Kubatko writes. He constructed a model using those four factors to predict the order of finish. Applied to past years, his model correctly predicted the winner two-thirds of the time, and 93% of the time its predicted winner finished in the top three.

Models based on past data tend to look better when applied to historical results than when turned loose to predict the future. Plus, there’s that whole less-than-10%-of-the-season thing. Still, it’s fun to check the current leaderboard, topped by Kobe Bryant and with his Lakers teammate, Andrew Bynum, ranked fourth. Last year’s winner, LeBron James, is nowhere to be seen, largely because his Cleveland Cavaliers are a mere 4-3.

As Basketball Reference commenters point out, team record has a very large influence on the model. Nine of the top 10 candidates play for the five teams in the league with the best records, including Dwyane Wade of the surprising Miami Heat. (Let’s see if the Heat and Wade still rank so high after they get into tougher stretches of their schedule that don’t feature the Knicks, Pacers and Wizards every other game.) The 10th contender, Carmelo Anthony, plays for a team tied for the sixth-best record. He’s also not looking so valuable by other measures, though Kubatko points out that the model predicts who will win, rather than advocating for who should win.

But at the moment, Iverson’s basketball future is unknown — after declining due to back and ego injuries after a trade to Detroit last season, he pouted over playing time in Memphis before leaving the team Saturday to deal with “personal business.” He lasted just three games there, and may not return to the Grizzlies, or any other NBA team. The last year-plus has been one big comedown for the future Hall of Famer, and this could well be the end of what has been an astonishing NBA career.

Astonishing, that is, but not surprising. Iverson has been clear in the past that he doesn’t see himself as a bench player, yet Memphis coach Lionel Hollins cast him in that role anyway. “The Grizzlies brought in Allen Iverson and then chased him into the sunset because he acted like — ready for it? — Allen Iverson!” Geoff Calkins writes in the Memphis Commercial Appeal. “Whoever would have thought it? The nerve of the guy! Yes, Iverson has confirmed to the world he is all about Iverson. But what part of the world didn’t know that already?” MLive’s Patrick Hayes wonders if the Grizzlies were straight with Iverson about what his role would be.

In the Philadelphia Daily News, Phil Jasner bemoans Iverson’s inability to adapt to the demands of others, and to the role for which he now seems best suited. “He could have emerged as a dynamic sixth man,” Jasner writes. “He could have added years to his career. He could have written a couple of additional chapters to his legacy. He chose not to do that.”

* * *

Tomorrow’s Fix will tackle head-on the sad news that Kareem Abdul-Jabbar has leukemia. In the meantime, what better place to turn than the SI Vault, for this 1966 Frank Deford piece on a soon-to-be-revolutionary young man named Lew Alcindor about to play his first varsity game at UCLA.

* * *

It’s a feeling few of us have ever known firsthand — to take a handoff from a quarterback and barrel forward, through and around a half-dozen gigantic opponents toward the end zone. It’s not hard to see how the elation felt in pulling that off could transform an ordinary person into someone with an oversized sense of infallibility. It’s probably too late to psychoanalyze Larry Johnson. The two-time Pro Bowl pick, who was one of the NFL’s dominant rushers just a few years ago, was released amid a cloud of acrimony and recrimination by the moribund Kansas City Chiefs Monday. (Sports Illustrated’s Joe Posnanski already peeked inside Johnson’s head ably.) Even considering Johnson’s brushes with the law and ritual flouting of what is generally accepted as non-butthead behavior, it’s still stunning how so talented a player’s star could’ve fallen so quickly.

“Johnson was a man concerned with his legacy. He wanted to break records,” the Kansas City Star’s Kent Babb writes. “He wanted to leave his mark. He studied the game and identified the great ones, hoping someday to do what they did and be as unforgettable as they were. Instead, he’ll be remembered not as a great running back, but rather as a troubled one whose terrific skills and immeasurable talent never caught up with his bad decisions and overflowing emotions.”

* * *

Babb’s last sentence seemed to loom as a possible career epitaph for University of Oregon’s LeGarrette Blount. But this running back will receive another chance with his team. Blount had been suspended by Ducks coach Chip Kelly for the year after punching a Boise State player and igniting a brawl after Oregon’s first game of the season — on the same day that Johnson was denied his sixth or seventh chance by the Chiefs. The Ducks will reinstate Blount for Saturday’s game against Arizona State.

At Fox Sports, Pete Fiutak delivers the dudgeon n’ scold routine one expects in cases like this. But in the Portland Oregonian, John Canzano — who tore into Blount and the Oregon football program after the initial incident (check this Fix for proof) — takes a longer view.

“We live in a society that too often lowers [standards] for people who can run fast and jump high and entertain us with their athleticism,” Canzano writes. “Blount, who has been suspended three times in 18 months at Oregon, is either going to join the ranks of sad souls who blew one final opportunity to get it right. Or he’s going to use this as a springboard to take himself somewhere greater.”

* * *

That Charlie Weis is the coach at the fading-but-still-famous brand that is Notre Dame explains the outsized amount of attention he’s been given, but Fighting Irish fans are having a more difficult time explaining the team’s loss to Navy on Saturday.

It doesn’t help things that Weis — who followed the loss by proclaiming, oddly, that he “never, ever change[s]” — appeared to have been pretty soundly out-coached by Navy’s Ken Niumatalolo. “Speculation about coach Charlie Weis’ position on the imaginary bun warmer will come from all the directions,” the South Bend Tribune’s Al Lesar writes. “With Pittsburgh, Connecticut and Stanford left, and a best-case scenario of the Gator Bowl as the prize for winning out, motivation has sailed away. It’s a season that’s sinking fast.”

All of which leaves Notre Dame fans with little left to look forward to but … grandiose next-head-coach scenarios? “Start naming specific coaching prospects to Irish fans, though, and delusions of grandeur return in full bloom,” Yahoo’s Doug Gillett writes. “Posters at the message board ND Nation can’t seem to decide where to focus their hubristic presumption — the idea that Urban Meyer would automatically drop everything and leave Florida for South Bend if the Irish showed even a hint of interest, or the idea that Notre Dame might actually be too good for a coach who only suspended his star linebacker for a half for eye-gouging.”

* * *

College basketball’s regular season is off to a quiet start, with good teams tuning up against less-good teams and interesting games probably still some weeks away. North Carolina at least picked an intriguing patsy in Isiah Thomas-coached Florida International, and the Zeke-led Golden Panthers kept things somewhat closer than expected. Which, you know, is good for them, but still led to a 16-point loss.

Instead of watching highlights from blowouts, you should read Steve Yanda’s excellent, in-depth profile of the University of Maryland’s mercurial Venezuelan point guard, Greivis Vasquez. Vasquez’s batty charisma and Yanda’s understated writing and terrific reporting places this story among the most entertaining your Fixer has come across in awhile.

* * *

Manny Pacquiao and Miguel Cotto are not the only big personalities involved in Saturday’s mega-hyped welterweight championship bout. Pacquiao is trained by Freddie Roach, and the unique relationship between the two idiosyncratic, defiantly individualistic boxing greats is the subject of a terrific piece by Greg Bishop in the New York Times. “If the boxer is the most recognizable person in a country of more than 90 million, the trainer ranks third behind the president, Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo,” Bishop writes. “Locals have tried to set Roach up with potential brides. He causes traffic jams when buses stop so passengers can get his autograph. The trainer finds all this amusing, but as Pacquiao’s popularity has grown, so too has his power, and that has altered the dynamic of their relationship.”

In USA Today, Bob Velin discusses the differences between Roach and Cotto trainer Joe Santiago, and how those divergent approaches could impact the fight.

— Tip of the Fix cap to readers Brendan Flynn and Fred Sternburg and fellow Fixer Garey Ris.

Found a good column from the world of sports? Don’t keep it to yourself — write to us at dailyfix@wsj.com and we’ll consider your find for inclusion in the Daily Fix. You can email David at droth11@gmail.com.

Brian Burke of NFL Advanced Stats says their respective probabilities are 14% and 23% (meaning there’s about a one in three chance of one of them finishing undefeated). He bases his probabilities on rankings of every team in the league derived from various attributes, such as fumble rates and yards per play, and on each team’s remaining schedule. The Colts arguably have the slightly tougher road. Both teams play the New England Patriots. The Colts also face the Baltimore Ravens and Denver Broncos, while the Saints’ other tough matchup is the Dallas Cowboys.

These calculations, of course, can’t account for surprises later in the season that change team strength. Since the Colts and Saints are already at the top of the league, the status quo is beneficial to them and surprises are more likely to hurt than help. The entire St. Louis Rams starting lineup could get food poisoning before Sunday and it wouldn’t change the Saints’ status as heavy favorites, but an injury to New Orleans quarterback Drew Brees could have an impact.

Another unknown is whether the teams would continue playing at full strength once they presumably sew up home-field advantage until the Super Bowl. The Patriots kept playing their stars in 2007, then struggled in their first two playoff games before losing the Super Bowl to the New York Giants, a heavy underdog. The Colts, on the other hand, are known for resting players and playing below their best late in the season — though that reputation isn’t entirely deserved. Over the last six years, they’ve won 81% of their games before December and 71% of games afterward, not a huge drop-off. Only in 2006 did the Colts have a losing record from Dec. 1 to the end of the regular season, and that year they won four playoff games and the Super Bowl. The Colts’ coach during those seasons was Tony Dungy. It’s unclear what Dungy’s former assistant, Jim Caldwell, would do now that he’s in the top spot.

When 2005’s Dungy-coached Colts lost after starting 13-0, it was with all their top skill players playing the whole game. They were vanquished by the San Diego Chargers, then quarterbacked by current Saints signal-caller Drew Brees. This time, Brees and Peyton Manning may meet for the first time this season as quarterbacks of 18-0 teams in the Super Bowl. But don’t bet on it — Burke’s calculations say there’s a one-in-30 chance the two teams will enter the playoffs undefeated.

But the fall of the Berlin Wall, 20 years ago today, was clearly different, and I understood it even then. I was 11 years old at the time, but very aware that something (or everything) was changing, if only from watching my parents’ response to the news footage. While the most notable changes brought about by the Wall’s fall were obviously in the lives of the millions living in the former East Germany (and later the Soviet bloc), the end of East Germany also made a notable impact in the world of sports. A few terrific articles that didn’t fit into this morning’s Daily Fix bear this out.

In part, the fall of the Berlin Wall resonated especially dramatically in the sports world because East Germany defined itself, to a great degree, through its excellence in international athletic competition. At Al Jazeera online (seriously), Paul Rhys tells the fascinating story of German track star Heike Drechsler, who won Olympic medals for both East Germany (in 1988) and unified Germany, and was elected to the communist German Democratic Republic’s Volkskammer legislature when she was just 19.

Drechsler succeeded within the system in the GDR, but the oppressiveness of the East German police state was intolerable for many others. In Deutsche Welle, Marcus Neu Boelz relates the story of Axel Mitbauer, a member of the GDR’s national swimming team who staged an unbelievable escape from East Germany. “The Baltic Sea was an area many used in their attempts to flee East Germany, and guards were always on the alert as a result,” Boelz writes. “Mitbauer studied the guards’ habits for a week and learned that they turned off the search lights shortly once an hour to allow them to cool. On August 17, around 9 p.m., he grabbed his chance and dove into the water. As the lights were turned back on, he went under water again and swam 25 kilometers (15.5 miles).”

As the first and most memorable of the dominoes to fall in Communism’s collapse, the Berlin Wall remains a striking symbol of changing times. The athletic globalization of the post-Cold War era has changed the face of sports around the world, and seemingly gives the story a happy ending. But the institutionalized doping and massive corruption that defined the GDR’s national athletic program remains shocking. “About 10,000 East German athletes were subjected to a mandatory, state-run system of doping that produced dozens of Olympic gold medals,” Bob Cohn writes in the Washington Times. “It also caused an ethical scandal of global proportions, widespread moral outrage and dire health issues that remain to this day. Other communist countries sent a sizable number of chemically altered athletes into competition, but East Germany was where the practice not only was commonplace, but institutionalized and, in most cases, mandatory.”

— Tip of the Fix cap to fellow Fixer Garey Ris.

Found a good column from the world of sports? Don’t keep it to yourself — write to us at dailyfix@wsj.com and we’ll consider your find for inclusion in the Daily Fix. You can email David at droth11@gmail.com.

The Colts held off the spunky Houston Texans in Indianapolis, but seemed headed for overtime until Texans kicker Kris Brown’s 42-yard field-goal attempt missed the mark. At Yahoo, Michael Silver runs down the not-so-pretty win that stretched the Colts’ regular-season winning streak to 17 games.

The Saints almost immediately fell two touchdowns behind Carolina, but came back to win thanks to their usual offensive fireworks and a game-changing fumble recovery and touchdown by defensive tackle Anthony Hargrove. In the New Orleans Times-Picayune, Mike Triplett describes the ongoing on-field redemption of the oft-troubled Hargrove.

And of course the Washington Redskins continue to fall apart. After a comparatively hard-fought 31-17 loss to the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday, the Washington Post’s Mike Wise wonders if the 2-5 ‘Skins will win another game this season.

The New York Giants haven’t been much more successful than the ‘Skins of late. They dropped their fourth straight on Sunday when Philip Rivers led a game-winning drive in the final minute. In Newsday, Bob Glauber takes the pulse of an increasingly vulnerable Giants team.

Perhaps most shockingly, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers beat a pretty good Green Bay team for their first win of the season in rookie quarterback Josh Freeman’s first NFL start. “Nobody is going out and pricing rings or anything, but Tampa Bay and its Buccaneers are in love again, finally,” the Tampa Tribune’s Martin Fennelly writes.

* * *

It’s not a stretch to say that the most hotly anticipated college-football game of the year will take place roughly a month before the BCS championship. The date is Dec. 5 and the matchup is between Florida and Alabama in the SEC title game. Alabama’s ultra-dramatic comeback win against LSU on Saturday punched the Tide’s ticket as SEC West champs. At CBS Sports, Tony Barnhart appreciates the Tide’s resilience.

In the Birmingham News, Sam Ray Melick laments the fact that a controversial call — in this case, a probable late interception by LSU’s Patrick Peterson that officials ruled incomplete — once again affected the outcome of an SEC game. “I don’t believe in conspiracies, at least not the one that says the SEC office is behind making sure every questionable call involving its top-ranked teams goes in those teams’ favor,” Melick writes. “But there is reason for concern — concern that the league’s officials might be letting these controversies get to them.”

While the Tide survived Saturday with its perfect record intact, other BCS contenders fell off the pace — eighth-ranked Oregon fell to Stanford while fourth-ranked Iowa took its first loss of the season against Northwestern. In USA Today, Marlen Garcia writes that the loss forces the Hawkeyes to recalibrate their goals.

* * *

The hats are less ostentatious, the seersucker less in evidence and media attention notably less intense, but the Breeders Cup has long been one of the races to watch for horseracing fans. Last weekend’s edition was notable both for its location — California’s ultra-picturesque Santa Anita Racetrack — and its winner. That would be Zenyatta, a mare whose furious late surge carried her to a win — the first ever for a female in the Breeders Cup — and ensured that she went undefeated for an astonishing 14th straight race. She trounced a distinguished slate of horses that included this year’s Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes winners.

“The venerable Great Race Place rocked and rolled. The thousands of signs scattered about the crowd — ‘Girl Power,’ ‘Maneater,’ ‘Rachel Who?’ — bounced up and down in a sea of unrestrained joy,” Bill Dwyre enthuses in the Los Angeles Times. “Zenyatta not only won one for the underdogs, but did wonders for female pride. This was not Billie Jean King beating a creaky old Bobby Riggs. This was Billie Jean beating Roger Federer.”

Zenyatta has already reached a rare level of popular notoriety for a horse not running in the Kentucky Derby. How big is Zenyatta? Big enough for Marcus Armytage to deploy the racing writer’s equivalent of the nuclear option in the Daily Telegraph of London. Let’s call it the S-bomb.

“Like Seabiscuit,” Armytage writes. “Zenyatta has shown that, in a nation which largely knows its horses by the start numbers on which they wager, greatness in a horse — part ability, part character — can transcend more than just the economic, political or personal problems of a nation or the sport.”

* * *

Milwaukee Bucks rookie Brandon Jennings is off to an impressive start this season, but we’re probably several years away from having anything like a meaningful sample size on the success or failure of U.S. high-school players who forsake college hoops to play professionally overseas. But Jennings’s experience in Italy and the current travails of former Louisville mega-recruit Jeremy Tyler in Israel do seem to prove one less-than-surprising point — namely, that it’s very different for a 17-year-old to live in a foreign country and get yelled at by basketball coaches all the time.

In a terrific, thorough piece for the New York Times (which ran a piece in January about Jennings’s tough time in Italy), Pete Thamel finds Tyler, who skipped his senior year of high school, struggling to figure things out in Haifa. “Caught in a clash of cultures, distractions and agendas, he appears to be worlds away from a draft-night handshake with [NBA Commissioner David] Stern,” Thamel writes. “So enamored with his vast potential, Tyler has not developed the work ethic necessary to tap it. … It is too early to declare Tyler a bust, but it is safe to say that he has transformed from a can’t-miss prospect into a project.”

* * *

Fight fans have had Nov. 14 circled for some time, and may have had their pay-per-view reservations in place for months. But this had not, sadly, translated into much in the way of good sportswriting in anticipation of Saturday’s highly anticipated bout between Manny Pacquiao and Miguel Cotto. Now, finally, we’re starting to see some good stuff about this very good fight. I’ll work some more into tomorrow’s Fix, but the fine profile of the fascinating Pacquiao by Time’s Howard Chua-Eoan and Ishaan Tharoor is a good place to start.

“The broad outlines of his history — his legend — have made the boxer a projection of the migrant dreams of the many Filipinos who leave home and country for work,” Chua-Eoan and Tharoor write. “Everyone in the Philippines knows a person who has made the sacrifice or is making it. Pacquiao gives that multitude a champion’s face of selflessness: the winner who takes all and gives to all.”

— Tip of the Fix cap to readers Don Hartline and Fred Sternburg and fellow Fixer Garey Ris.

Found a good column from the world of sports? Don’t keep it to yourself — write to us at dailyfix@wsj.com and we’ll consider your find for inclusion in the Daily Fix. You can email David at droth11@gmail.com.

Getty Images

Alabama’s Terrence Cody (left) pressures LSU quarterback Jordan Jefferson during the Crimson Tide’s win.

The Journal provides minute-by-minute analysis of third-ranked Alabama’s 24-15 victory over No. 9 LSU in Tuscaloosa, Alabama. Journal staffer Geoff Foster offers commentary on today’s game and the CBS telecast.

12:59 pm | Pregame | by Geoff Foster

They might as well call this game the Jack Links Beef Jerky National Quarterfinal Game. For the fourth time in five years, Alabama vs. LSU will effectively decide who takes the SEC West. Undefeated Alabama can secure the division with a win here; one-loss LSU would be a couple of games from that same fate with a victory in Tuscaloosa. So whoever comes out on top will most likely win a date with Tim Tebow and his merry band of eye-gouging alligators in the SEC championship game on December 5. And whoever wins that is heading someplace even better.

If you like touchdowns, you can check local listings and see what time Tulsa-Houston is on, because you won't get many here. This is going to be a kicking exhibition, as both defenses are ranked in the top 10 in points allowed (Alabama is fifth at 11.4; LSU is seventh at 12.1). Right now, Vegas has the over/under hovering around 40, which may even be a little high (suckers bet the over).

Clogging the middle of Alabama’s ferocious 3-4 defense is two-ton nose tackle Terrence Cody, who blocked two fourth-quarter field goals two weeks ago in a victory against Tennessee (Aside: He should have been flagged for immediately ripping his helmet off in celebration of the last one -- how dare he?). Also creating havoc on the Tigers will be Alabama’s other future NFL first-round pick Rolando McClain, who’s an absolute monster on the field. The pair have helped the Tide defense hold opponents to one touchdown in three games.

LSU’s defense is nearly as stifling. It kept Florida and Auburn, two of the SEC’s better offenses, to a combined 23 points. The team is also coming off an impressive shutout of Tulane, although that’s the college football equivalent of tripping a drunk on the sidewalk. While Tigers' sacks seem few and far between, the secondary is littered with talent and has already produced 11 interceptions.

The game may come down to 19-year-old LSU quarterback Jordan Jefferson, who pretty much needs to play flawless football. If LSU can’t move the ball and he gets caught in a bunch of third-and-longs, he may be eaten alive. An early Alabama lead will mean an even heavier dose of Tide tailback Mark Ingram, whose Heisman candidacy is quickly gaining momentum. Alabama has had a week to get healthy and thrives on taking the lead and grinding down the clock, as well as the viewing audience’s attention span.

But with this rivalry, it’s unwise to think blowout. LSU didn’t travel this far (OK, it wasn’t that far) to run to the locker room waving a white flag at first sight of Cody’s gigantic gut. Besides, the home team always seems to flop, winning just six of the last 28 games in this rivalry (The road team has also covered the spread a staggering 11 times in the last 13 meetings). Like all good slugfests: It will come down to turnover margin and field goals.

And, poof, a preview of LSU and Alabama without one mention of “Saban” and “former team.”

3:30 pm | Pregame | by Geoff Foster

All right, minutes from kickoff in Tuscaloosa. We all know what’s at stake in this one. Alabama has slipped to third in the BCS standings during its bye week, and the Crimson Tide will be eager to make a big statement here. LSU, which has been flying under the radar after losing to Florida, has a brilliant opportunity.

Mark Ingram, as well as the much-ballyhooed defenses, have been stealing most of the headlines this week, but I think this game is going to come down to one or two big plays on special teams.  Both teams have dangerous weapons in the return game in Javier Arenas and Trindon Holliday; look for one of them to break things open.

Around the country it’s been an interesting morning (afternoon? I may have woken up late). No. 4-ranked Iowa's much-anticipated transformation into a pumpkin finally happened, as it ran out of late-game magic, losing to Northwestern 17-10. Early on, the Hawkeyes lost QB Ricky Stanzi to an ankle injury, which didn’t help. Expect them to plummet in the polls. In the SEC, the South Carolina Gamecocks went to Arkansas and got beat up by the Ryan Mallett-led Hogs, 33-16. Steve Spurrier had a classic clipboard-throwing tantrum, which was the most entertaining part of the game -- by far.  No. 2 Texas forgot to show up for the first quarter versus UCF, but eventually went on to pummel the Knights 35-3.

3:37 pm | First quarter | by Geoff Foster

Weather looks incredible in Tuscaloosa, Bryant-Denny Stadium is rocking. Pom-pom levels are absurd. Tracy Wolson interviewing Nick Saban, apparently he wants his players to play “their best football.” Makes sense.

By the way, CBS has the highest quality HD in my opinion. LSU is getting the ball first.

3:40 pm | First quarter | by Geoff Foster

Faced with an early third and manageable, Jefferson scampers for a few yards; measurement says he missed it. Three and out for the Tigers.

3:43 pm | First quarter | by Geoff Foster

Gary Danielson wants Miles to go for it early; I wonder how many times he will call him a "river-boat gambler" today. Alabama gets the ball on its own 20.

3:44 pm | First quarter | by Geoff Foster

The Tide start with a pass and McElroy tries to hit Smelley on the sideline. It's bobbled and we have our first review,. That didn't take long.

3:44 pm | First quarter | by Geoff Foster

Check that, the replay booth took a "power hit." What's a power hit???

3:45 pm | First quarter | by Geoff Foster

So no replays for a while because of the alleged power hit. What will we do without replays?!

3:46 pm | First quarter | by Geoff Foster

McElroy hits Maze in the flat for a nice gain of 17 yards. First down Tide

3:49 pm | First quarter | by Geoff Foster

McElroy tries to go long to Julio Jones and misses. Jones, with only 229 yards and one touchdown so far, has had a rough year. McElroy finds tight end Williams on the next play for a first down.

3:51 pm | First quarter | by Geoff Foster

Tide try the wildcat to Ingram and the snap hits him in the head, and they lose nine yards. Alabama is backed up to its own 44 and fails to convert on the next play. Punt time.

LSU gets the ball back on its own 8 with 9:26 left in the quarter.

3:55 pm | First quarter | by Geoff Foster

LSU tries a couple runs and gets stuffed. T-Bob Hebert, not to be confused with NYTimes columnist Bob Herbert, gets the unfortunate job of blocking Terrence Cody. He’s also the son of former Saints QB Bobby Hebert. I’m considering changing my name to T-Geoff Foster…wait, that doesn’t sound as good.

3:56 pm | First quarter | by Geoff Foster

Illegal formation by LSU negates a huge gain through the air for the Tigers.

3:58 pm | First quarter | by Geoff Foster

Jefferson tries another bomb up the middle and it's broken up. Another false start puts the Tigers on their own 6. LSU gets off the dangerous punt. Tide will get the ball around midfield.

4:03 pm | First quarter | by Geoff Foster

McElroy throws a lame duck deep down the field. He's looked really bad the last few weeks. Alabama finally gives the ball to Ingram and he picks up eight. The next play, he is stuffed and Tide face fourth and short. Yet another punt coming.

4:05 pm | First quarter | by Geoff Foster

As expected, this is a festival of punts. 0-0 with 5:45 left in the first. Jefferson and company getting the ball on their own 20.

4:06 pm | First quarter | by Geoff Foster

Lou Holtz picked the Tigers to win this game earlier. So, that pretty much settles things; should we even watch the rest of this?

4:07 pm | First quarter | by Geoff Foster

Jefferson finds Toliver on first down, Alabama defender slips and he picks up a big gain of 41 yards to the Alabama 39.

4:11 pm | First quarter | by Geoff Foster

LSU tries the option pitch with Shepard in at QB and it goes for a big loss. Danielson thinks they are not a good option team, I agree -- that was gross. Jefferson incomplete on the next play and LSU pins the Tide on the 1 yard line with a great kick.

4:14 pm | First quarter | by Geoff Foster

McElroy, deep in his own end zone, finds Maze down field. Gain of 37 yards, beautiful pass.

4:17 pm | First quarter | by Geoff Foster

On second down around midfield, McElroy almost gets picked off; that would have been six the other direction. He can't find anyone on the next play and they are giving it back to LSU.

4:18 pm | First quarter | by Geoff Foster

LSU can't seem to get anything going with the ground game. First quarter comes to a close. Unsurprisingly, no one has scored so far in this game.

4:22 pm | Second quarter | by Geoff Foster

Back to that Iowa loss, I’m thinking SI should start putting NCAA volleyball and MLS on its cover. This jinx is out of control.

4:23 pm | Second quarter | by Geoff Foster

Jefferson, in his own end zone, finds Peterson for a gain of 28 yards. They need more plays like that to loosen up the Tide's defense.

4:24 pm | Second quarter | by Geoff Foster

With another gain of 13 yards on the screen pass, LSU might have a drive going.

4:26 pm | Second quarter | by Geoff Foster

On third and two, Scott muscles his way for the first down at the Alabama 41. Lundquist was a little quick to call it short; guess he isn't expecting many first downs.

4:28 pm | Second quarter | by Geoff Foster

Jefferson runs for another 15 yards to the Tide's 23 and LSU is approaching field-goal territory. We might actually get some points. Points!

4:32 pm | Second quarter | by Geoff Foster

TOUCHDOWN! Jefferson finds Peterson down the middle of the field for a 12-yard score with 9:12 left in the half.  The XP makes it 7-0 Tigers.

4:34 pm | Second quarter | by Geoff Foster

Jefferson is off to a great start. The sophomore has completed seven of 10 for 99 yards and a TD. I think a lot of critics were pointing to him as the Tigers' weak link. He's proving them wrong in the early going. I'd like to see if Alabama can get Ingram going on this next drive.

4:34 pm | Second quarter | by Geoff Foster

Javier Arenas takes the kickoff to midfield. Great field position for the Tide.

4:37 pm | Second quarter | by Geoff Foster

Ingram with no space, uses the spin move to pick up 12 yards. Their rushing attack needs to start moving the chains.

4:38 pm | Second quarter | by Geoff Foster

Alabama is quickly in the red zone. McElroy misses Jones in the end zone. The 13th miss in the red zone for Jones.

4:40 pm | Second quarter | by Geoff Foster

McElroy tries the end zone again, and overthrows his target. This team is awful near the end zone. Here comes the field-goal unit.

4:42 pm | Second quarter | by Geoff Foster

Tiffin's 28-yard field goal is good. Alabama cuts the lead to 7-3 with just under six minutes left in the first half. Tiffin scored all their points vs. Tennessee. For Tide fans, hopefully that doesn't happen again.

4:42 pm | Second quarter | by Geoff Foster

Stanford is beating Oregon 24-7 early in the second quarter. Not a lot people saw that one coming.

4:44 pm | Second quarter | by Geoff Foster

Three straight incomplete passes by Jefferson and LSU is punting again.

4:48 pm | Second quarter | by Geoff Foster

It's still quite unclear whether the replay booth is working or not after that "power hit." This just in for SEC fans, Auburn beat Furman, so … Auburn students are roaming campus screaming: “WE BEAT FURMAN!”

4:52 pm | Second quarter | by Geoff Foster

Ingram peels off a big gain on first down. Alabama now has the ball on its own 35 as we wait on another LSU injury.

4:54 pm | Second quarter | by Geoff Foster

McElroy is starting to find a rhythm with Maze, connecting on an 11-yard pickup. He tries Jones deep down the left side and there looked like there was contact, no flag though. Tide fans are clearly not happy.

4:55 pm | Second quarter | by Geoff Foster

McElroy throws a pass about 17 feet wide of Maze on third down. So much for my alleged "rhythm." Another punt gives LSU the ball on its own 17 with about three minutes remaining.

4:58 pm | Second quarter | by Geoff Foster

Jefferson took a shot on a incomplete pass and he's being looked at. My guess is he got winded. That's what happens when you get a helmet to the chest. And I base that on zero experience.

5:01 pm | Second quarter | by Geoff Foster

It looks like Jefferson is going to stay in the game. He's fine. On third and 12 on the Tigers' 16, Jefferson tries to run for it and is short. Alabama is getting the ball back with two minutes and all three timeouts.

5:04 pm | Second quarter | by Geoff Foster

The announcers can't stop talking about that miss to Jones in the end zone. Do these guys have money on the Tide? They seem legitimately angry about it.

Yet another injury for LSU stops play. The Tigers locker room at halftime is going to resemble a MASH unit.

5:10 pm | Second quarter | by Geoff Foster

McElroy is moving the ball. He finds Maze, then Jones, then Smelley. They now have the ball on the the LSU 40.

Pass-interference deep downfield gives the Tide another 15 yards.

5:11 pm | Second quarter | by Geoff Foster

McElroy just threw a disgusting pass deep downfield while he was falling down. INTERCEPTION LSU. That pass was truly, truly awful. Saban is reading him the riot act.

5:13 pm | Halftime | by Geoff Foster

LSU kneels. And it's halftime. Moments after barking at his quarterback, Saban is complementing him in the sideline interview.

But then again, what's he really going to say, "This guy stinks. I'm not sure what to do. Any suggestions?"

Tigers lead 7-3.

5:31 pm | Halftime | by Geoff Foster

Coming back from the break, CBS shows the Alabama cheerleaders and it makes me wonder, have they ever considered keeping a live elephant on the sidelines? That is, after all, their mascot. He would have to be well-trained and he might obstruct some views, but those are the only problems I can think of.

5:32 pm | Halftime | by Geoff Foster

Ingram only has 38 yards so far. Although he's averaging 6.8 yards a carry, LSU is doing a great job of containing the big runs. McElroy is making some poor throws out there, combined with some bad decision-making. No need to throw that ball at the end of the half. Take a sack. On the other side of the ball, I'm impressed with what Jefferson is doing. He needed to play flawlessly, and that's more or less what he's doing.

Odds this game comes down to a game-winning field goal attempt are strong to quite strong.

5:34 pm | Third quarter | by Geoff Foster

Les Miles seems confident. Just referred to the game as "This sucka." Brilliant. Alabama getting the ball now. Arenas gets clocked before his own 20.

5:37 pm | Third quarter | by Geoff Foster

FYI, they are still talking about that bad pass to Julio. They won't let it go.

Ingram gets a nice scamper, takes it near midfield. Next run for another 13 yards. Here he goes.

5:38 pm | Thirs quarter | by Geoff Foster

Everytime the mention Harry Coleman, I think they are saying Gary Coleman of Diff'rent Strokes fame.

Ingram runs for another 20 yards; he has 46 yards on this drive.

5:41 pm | Third quarter | by Geoff Foster

McElroy goes deep for Darius Hanks. TOUCHDOWN! The 21-yard score and XP make it 10-7 Tide about 3 1/2 minutes into the quarter.

Great start to the half for the Tide; they pounded Ingram for most of the series, and McElroy caught an open target in man coverage.

5:43 pm | Third quarter | by Geoff Foster

LSU starting with the ball at its own 25. Lets see how they respond after that 81-yard drive by the Tide.

5:45 pm | Third quarter | by Geoff Foster

Here's how they respond: Scott dropped a wide-open pass that would have been a monster gain.

But on third down, Jefferson finds Toliver for the first down.

5:49 pm | Third quarter | by Geoff Foster

On third and short on the ensuing series, Scott breaks into Alabama territory.

On the next first down, Jefferson tries for a receiver sitting in the second row of the stands. Intentional grounding and loss of down.

Jefferson now limping off the field; this could be bad news. Timeout LSU to evaluate.

5:50 pm | Third quarter | by Geoff Foster

My fiance just asked me to review the rehearsal-dinner guest list. Good timing. I'll be back in two hours.

5:53 pm | Third quarter | by Geoff Foster

Jarrett Lee, last year's starter, now in at quarterback for the Tigers. Not a good time to have the backup playing. On his first pass, he misses way long. Third and 25 now for the Tigers on their own 46.

5:55 pm | Third quarter | by Geoff Foster

Lee finds Jackson underneath for a solid gain. Fourth and five and Miles is going for it!

6:00 pm | Third quarter | by Geoff Foster

So much for that potential excitement. False start.

Now facing fourth and 10, LSU punts it to the one-inch line. That penalty may have been a blessing in disguise. 6:46 remaining in the third.

6:02 pm | Third quarter | by Geoff Foster

McElroy passing in the end zone, throws it a few feet away before he is hit. Intentional grounding in the endzone! Safety! LSU cuts the lead to 10-9.

6:06 pm | Third quarter | by Geoff Foster

It was going to be a safety at best anyway, at worst, a sack and fumble for a touchdown. So you can't really blame McElroy there. Alabama now has to punt-kickoff or whatever that is called in football.

6:07 pm | Third quarter | by Geoff Foster

The free kick gives LSU the ball on its own 42. Lee still in at QB.

6:10 pm | Third quarter | by Geoff Foster

After picking up a first down, Scott breaks free into open territory for a huge gain. He takes it all the way to the Alabama 15 yard-line.

Scott is now down with injury. What's going on here? That's the 26th injury for the Tigers, they may have to find the cheerleaders some uniforms for the fourth quarter.

Things are very quiet in Tuscaloosa.

6:15 pm | Third quarter | by Geoff Foster

Stevan Ridley, who's in for Scott at tailback, bounces it to the outside eight yards for a touchdown!

Les Miles wants to go for two. And Lee can't connect.

Still, 15-10 Tigers with three and change left in the third.

6:17 pm | Third quarter | by Geoff Foster

Charles Scott joins his fallen comrades in the locker room with a collarbone injury. His shoulder pads and jersey were off. I don't think he's coming back.

Speaking of injuries, Arenas is still down after the kickoff. Brutal game.

'Bama ball on the 32.

6:20 pm | Third quarter | by Geoff Foster

McElroy runs the draw for 11. Then Alabama tries a little trickery, a reverse to the QB who was out wide, but he misses Smelley deep downfield. Nice idea.

Ingram finds a hole and takes it all the way to the LSU 30.

6:22 pm | Third quarter | by Geoff Foster

Ingram has 85 yards in the second half, he's making himself a strong Heisman candidate whether he likes it or not.

A few more runs and the Tide are all of sudden in the red zone again with third-and-goal at the LSU 10, as the third quarter comes to a close.

6:30 pm | Fourth quarter | by Geoff Foster

With third and goal on the LSU 3, nose tackle Terrence "Mount" Cody is on the field. But 'Bama gets flagged for too many men on the field.

Penalty backs them up and they can't convert the TD from the 7-yard-line. A pass to Ingram places them on the 2. Decision time for Saban.

6:34 pm | Fourth quarter | by Geoff Foster

Alabama opts for the glorified extra point, as Leigh Tiffin kicks a 20-yard field goal. Three points and Alabama cuts the lead to 15-13 with 12:35 left.

That substitution penalty may have cost them four points.

6:35 pm | Fourth quarter | by Geoff Foster

LSU starting on its own 20. Jefferson looks like he's done for the day, as Lee is still in there.

6:38 pm | Fourth quarter | by Geoff Foster

Third and short for the Tigers, with 11:45 left, and they manage to squeeze off a timeout before the delay-of-game penalty. They now have no timeouts left. That might be a problem later on. Timeouts tend to be helpful in the waning minutes of close, absurdly important football games.

6:40 pm | Fourth quarter | by Geoff Foster

Ridley gets stuffed short of the first down. Alabama gets the ball back after the punt. Arenas is in there for the return, no worries there.

6:43 pm | Fourth quarter | by Geoff Foster

On first down, a screen pass to Julio Jones and he blows by the defender and takes it 73 yards for the TOUCHDOWN. Biggest play of the game so far. Was I criticizing Jones earlier? I can't remember.

RB Trent Richardson converts the two-pointer and it's 21-15 'Bama with 10:24 left.

6:47 pm | Fourth quarter | by Geoff Foster

LSU now has to mount a comeback with its backup running back and its backup quarterback. The Tigers are starting with the ball on on their own 28.

6:47 pm | Fourth quarter | by Geoff Foster

Danielson wants to know if Lee can redeem himself for last season. I want to know if he can complete a pass downfield.

Third and long...

6:52 pm | Fourth quarter | by Geoff Foster

Lee is sacked by Dareus for a loss of 11, I'm not sure Lee is the guy who's going to lead a comeback.

Here comes the Mark Ingram show as Alabama is getting the ball back on its own 45.

6:55 pm | Fourth quarter | by Geoff Foster

On third and six, McElroy's draw play falls short of the first down. Extremely conservative play-calling for the Tide.

LSU gets flagged for running into the kicker, which will make it fourth and inches. Saban now wants to go for it, and Ingram powers his way through for a first down.

I think the difference between running into the kicker and roughing the kicker is the most nebulous rule in football by the way.

6:20 left. Time running out on the Tigers...

6:58 pm | Fourth quarter | by Geoff Foster

McElroy throws a second-down pass that is intercepted by Peterson, but they rule it out of bounds. This is going to be reviewed. Why are they passing? Serves them right if this is overturned.

Hopefully, the review booth has been fixed in the last three and half hours...

6:59 pm | Fourth quarter | by Geoff Foster

The play stands. I don't know, he looked like he got a foot in, tough call though.

Third and seven for the Tide, and McElroy finds Jones again for the first down at the LSU 30.

7:01 pm | Fourth quarter | by Geoff Foster

Non-sequitur alert: I’m going to go out on a limb here and say Crimson Tide is a better submarine movie than The Hunt for the Red October. Thoughts? Definitely better than U-571.

7:04 pm | Fourth quarter | by Geoff Foster

The Tide milk the clock, but can't pick up a first down. Field-goal unit is coming out to try to make this a nine-point game.

7:05 pm | Fourth quarter | by Geoff Foster

Tiffin drills the 40-yarder! 24-15 Alabama.

Now a two-score game, with three minutes left.

7:06 pm | Fourth quarter | by Geoff Foster

Danielson makes a good point. That failed two-point conversion earlier could be the difference maker. Les Miles may have out Les Miles-ed himself.

LSU has the ball with no timeouts, and Dareus adds another sack. He's having a great game. 2:31 left.

7:07 pm | Fourth quarter | by Geoff Foster

On second and 14, Lee throws the ball into triple coverage. Incomplete. And then another ball that is almost picked off.

Big fourth down coming up. LSU ball on its 28. The Tigers need 14 yards.

7:09 pm | Fourth quarter | by Geoff Foster

And this time, it is picked off! Alabama gets the ball back and this one is over.

For the Tide, bring on the Gators!

7:09 pm | Fourth quarter | by Geoff Foster

A couple kneels and that's it.

Final: Alabama 24, LSU 15.

7:27 pm | Postgame | by Geoff Foster

You always hate to see a loss blamed on injuries, but I think we are going to hear a lot of that around Baton Rouge for many weeks to come. This time, the excuse may be valid. Jefferson was playing great before he got hurt, and in the second half, Lee showed way he lost the starting job. Charles Scott went down right after breaking a couple huge runs, and then we saw the backup Bradley fail to convert a key third and short. Cornerback Patrick Peterson was cramping up (hydrate!!), and then Julio Jones blows past the backup defender for a 73-yard touchdown reception that won the game.

Still, credit has to go to the Tide. McElroy was far from perfect but he set up the biggest play of the game in that pass to Jones. Mark Ingram, with 144 total rushing yards, woke up in the second half and was nearly unstoppable. And the defense got it done, which wasn't surprising.

The SEC Championship between Alabama and Tebow & Co. is going to be the biggest game since, well, the last SEC Championship game.

Brian Burke of Advanced NFL Stats attempted to answer the question by aggregating data on all field-goal attempts from 2000 to 2008. He found that, from nearly every distance, there was essentially no difference between success rates late in close games, and in all other game situations. “While it appears that pressure doesn’t affect NFL kickers as a whole, we still don’t know whether some individual kickers are truly good or bad in the clutch,” Burke writes. “Unfortunately, because kickers typically only have between 30 and 40 attempts a year, and only two or three could be considered clutch, we’ll never be able to know.”

Burke also recently analyzed another aspect of the pro kicking game. He found that surprise onside kicks are recovered 60% of the time, which means they should be used more often — they’d be valuable at any rate above 42%, when taking into account field position and the value of possession. Of course, if more teams used the ploy more often, it would become less of a surprise and return teams would be configured to defend better against the strategy. NFL coaches would be behaving optimally when the success rate matches the break-even rate. Their characteristic conservativism will probably prevent such an equilibrium from being reached. One commenter wrote, “I understand the math, Brian, but imagine being the first coach to onside in a tie game with 2:30 on the clock…professional suicide.”

Elsewhere in football stats analysis:

• The sample size is small, but analysis by Pro Football Reference’s Jason Lisk suggests that the home-field advantage is largely a matter of familiarity. The advantage shrinks as visiting teams gain experience playing in new stadiums.

• I wrote last NFL season about rare scores. Minnesota’s victory at Lambeau Field was the first 38-26 score in NFL history, which was perhaps somewhat overshadowed by the name of the Vikings quarterback.

• Steven Jackson has been, by one measure, the most valuable running back in the league — even though he scored his first touchdown of the season last week.

• The 2000 New York Giants never had a chance in the Super Bowl. Their opponent, the Baltimore Ravens, holds three of the top four positions on a list of best two-game stretches of the decade, and all three came during that year’s playoffs.

But Al Toonie is something else — he/it is the coin that owned both Garey and me last week. Sometimes the NFL is like that, with a tumbling inanimate object as likely to make the right call as two writers who (if we’re being honest) are among the finest minds of their respective generations. We’ll try to do better this week. Al Toonie is indeed kind of a joke (and a nod to a New York Jets demi-legend), but said joke was very much on us last week.

Week 8 recap (overall): David Roth: 6-7 (58-57-1), Garey Ris: 6-7 (59-56-1), Al Toonie, the Lucky Canadian Two-Dollar Coin: 8-5 (51-64-1)

SUNDAY’S GAMES

Washington at Atlanta (-10): If it seems like Atlanta should be a lot better than it has been recently, it’s because Atlanta should be. Quarterback Matt Ryan is in the first slump of his young career, and the explosive-on-paper offense has been implosive — thanks to Ryan’s struggles and injuries in the backfield — on the field. Which is something the Falcons will need to worry about once they get done beating the hopeless Redskins. Washington’s terribleness is too multifaceted to explain in this small space, but their abjectness this season has been so pronounced as to occasion an inevitably qualified apology from defective-Steinbrenner owner Daniel Snyder. It’s that bad. — DR

Pick: David: Atlanta, Garey: Atlanta, Al Toonie: Washington

Arizona at Chicago (-3): The Bears and Cardinals got to 4-3 records in different ways, although only the Cardinals have looked much better than that mark along the way. While the Bears gave the abject Browns an appropriate thrashing last week, their offensive execution is a mess, and churlish quarterback Jay Cutler already seems unhappy. The Cardinals have had a hard time finding the big plays that sustained them in last year’s playoffs, but they’re re-working their offense and — weird Week 8 loss aside — look fairly sharp. The Bears periodically look quite good, but I’ll take the team with the good offense over the… well, the one with the orange C’s on their helmets. — DR

Pick: David: Arizona, Garey: Arizona, Al Toonie: Chicago

Baltimore (-3) at Cincinnati: There was an era — let’s call it the Testaverde Administration — when Baltimore’s defense wasn’t great, but this has been the NFL’s defining D for a decade. It had also been decidedly middling until Week 8, when both offense and defense clicked in a thorough thrashing of Denver. Baltimore was uninspired in a home loss to Cincy earlier this year, but while the Ravens have perked up (and Cincy has come back to earth) since, the result in this one depends on which Ravens team shows up. I like both Baltimore and Cincinnati, but I don’t know that I like Baltimore as a road favorite because the Ravens have only one win away from home (though it was admittedly a convincing one over San Diego). — DR

Pick: David: Cincinnati, Garey: Baltimore, Al Toonie: Cincinnati

Houston at Indianapolis (-9): Considering that it might be barely a word, sparkyness is hard to define, but whatever it is, Houston – inconsistent, occasionally electric, sometimes maddening, generally middling – has it. Indianapolis, even with injuries chipping away at its offense and defense, looks great; Houston, despite three straight convincing wins, is less so, unless Week 8 breakout Ryan Moats really is Brian Westbrook. He’s not, but this is a generous line, and the Colts didn’t cover against a 49ers team Houston dispatched with relative ease. It’s not hard to imagine the Texans covering here. — DR

Pick: David: Houston, Garey: Indianapolis, Al Toonie: Indianapolis

Kansas City at Jacksonville (-6.5): Jacksonville is nearly 850 square miles in size, making it the largest contiguous city in the United States. That is not in any way proof that the recession-slammed sprawlopolis can support a NFL team. It certainly hasn’t done so of late. Jacksonville’s viability as a NFL city is an interesting/depressing question, but it’s also one that can pretty much go out the window this week, when these two brutal teams square off in an epic flub-off that promises to make Jacksonville’s (inevitable) TV blackout something of an act of mercy. — DR

Pick: David: Jacksonville, Garey: Jacksonville, Al Toonie: Jacksonville

Miami at New England (-10.5): It’s never a good sign when one finds oneself agreeing with Dolphins linebacker Joey Porter. That’s how you wind up furnishing stucco Florida mansions with portraits of yourself and purchasing terrifying dogs, and that’s not a path you want to go down. And yet when Porter copped to “a natural hate” of Bill Belichick’s Patriots earlier this week, I was hard-pressed to disagree. Of course, Porter presumably thinks that the gadgety, sparky, flawed and undermanned Dolphins have a shot against the locked-in Pats in this one. On that, and on the desirability of scary dogs, he and I disagree. — DR

Pick: David: New England, Garey: Miami, Al Toonie: Miami

Green Bay (-9.5) at Tampa Bay: Green Bay has a terrible offensive line that has had trouble protecting quarterback Aaron Rodgers and opening holes for running back Ryan Grant, but the offense has managed to function fairly well despite that. Tampa Bay has a terrible everything, and has not managed to function well at all, in any aspect. The Buccaneers have promoted promising first-rounder Josh Freeman to the starting quarterback role, which is presumably nice for him. They also have a pirate ship at their stadium. But, yeah: The good team with the bad offensive line will beat the bad team with the bad everything. Soundly. — DR

Pick: David: Green Bay, Garey: Green Bay, Al Toonie: Tampa Bay

Carolina at New Orleans (-13.5): The Saints, the NFC’s only unbeaten team, are an offensive juggernaut, scoring 36 TDs in surging to a 7-0 record. This looks like an easy pick, a mismatch: undefeated team versus a 3-4 squad. You knew there was a “but” coming, right? Exactly. New Orleans hasn’t lost yet, but Carolina has won six of the past seven meetings, and seven straight at the Superdome. Jake Delhomme is no Drew Brees — that’s a given. However, he’s 8-2 all-time against the Saints. After last week’s spotty rush defense against Atlanta, the Saints look to get back on track Sunday. — GR

Pick: David: New Orleans, Garey: Carolina, Al Toonie: New Orleans

Detroit at Seattle (-10): The NFL game notes read like something only the motivational group Up With People would produce. “Game features 2 of top 4 picks in 2009 NFL draft.” These teams got such high picks because they were awful last year, and this year again they’re terrible, as is this matchup. (Lions QB Matthew Stafford was the first pick; Seahawks LB Aaron Curry was fourth.) The NFL wouldn’t dare trumpet the fact that the Lions are 1-6 and the Seahawks 2-5. Detroit has the NFL’s second-worst scoring defense, Seattle has the 21st-ranked scoring offense. This has all the makings of a … Zzzzzzz. — GR

Pick: David: Detroit, Garey: Seattle, Al Toonie: Seattle

San Diego at New York Giants (-4.5): What’s wrong with the Giants? Three straight losses have put a damper on a season that began with five consecutive wins. While Eli Manning’s is-it-or-isn’t-it slump has gotten a lot of press, the biggest problem has been a weak pass defense (840 yards, eight TDs) against New Orleans, Arizona and Philadelphia. Maybe the flawed Chargers are the elixir the Giants need to get back to their winning ways. New York has won its past four games against AFC foes. — GR

Pick: David: Giants, Garey: San Diego, Al Toonie: San Diego

Tennessee at San Francisco (-4): Everyone loves second-chance stories, and this game features the Titans’ Vince Young and the Niners’ Alex Smith, both high draft picks who had lost their starting jobs, then regained them. The Titans have plumbed the depths of incompetence only a year after going 13-3. Young has been down, too, but he won his first 2009 start in Week 8, and is playing with added motivation — this could his last chance to prove himself as an NFL-caliber quarterback. — GR

Pick: David: San Francisco, Garey: Tennessee, Al Toonie: Tennessee

Dallas at Philadelphia (-3): No doubt the Cowboys will remember their last visit to Philly, a 44-6 pounding that gave the Eagles the final NFC playoff spot last season. Cowboys QB Tony Romo’s streak of 12 straight November wins might come to an end against a Philadelphia team that routed the Giants a week ago. Dallas’s defense has 17 sacks in its past five games after going sackless the first two games. Also in Dallas’s favor is the fact that the Cowboys have spread the offense around in their three-game winning streak. — GR

Pick: David: Philadelphia, Garey: Philadelphia, Al Toonie: Dallas

MONDAY’S GAME

Pittsburgh (-3) at Denver: The Steelers might want to look at the videotape (is there still such a thing?) of Baltimore’s hammer job on Denver last week, 30-7, which ended the Broncos’ six-game winning streak. Even with the loss, Denver still boasts the NFL’s second-stingiest defense (13.7 points per game). The defending champion Steelers are riding a four-game winning streak after starting the season 1-2. It’ll be interesting to see how rookie Broncos RB Knowshon Moreno fares against the NFL’s best rush defense. — GR

Pick: David: Pittsburgh, Garey: Pittsburgh, Al Toonie: Denver

Pro football’s been back for a decade, but Cleveland is mired in mediocrity. The Browns are 1-7 in their first year under coach Eric Mangini, not what anyone expected after an offseason that included the hiring of general manager George Kokinis, who was fired earlier this week.

Browns owner Randy Lerner’s decision to allow Mangini to choose his general manager was a gamble that was a colossal failure, Charles Robinson writes at Yahoo Sports. “One minute, Mangini was a rising star paying his dues in the Patriots system. The next, he was being dubbed ‘Mangenius,’ appearing on ‘The Sopranos’ and starring in a national cellphone commercial, Robinson writes. “All of this after a 10-6 season and a playoff loss in 2006. Then after a career 23-26 record (including his one postseason defeat), he gets fired by the Jets and then hired by the Browns seemingly before he’s had a chance to put his suitcases down. So yeah, excuse me if I think Mangini was afforded a lot of affection and a second opportunity that was slightly out of whack for his accomplishments.”

At Sports Illustrated, Don Banks paints a picture of a flawed relationship between Mangini and Kokinis, and how Mangini won the power struggle.

* * *

Perhaps The Answer isn’t the answer for the Memphis Grizzlies. Allen Iverson isn’t happy coming off the bench instead of starting for a team that’s already 1-4 this season. It’s not like Iverson had any leverage when he signed a one-year, $3 million contract with Memphis — they were the only team interested in him. Still, Iverson made his plea to start after Monday’s loss to Sacramento. At Memphis’s Commercial Appeal, members of the sports department debate whether Iverson should start or remain a role player for the Grizzlies.

In New York, the Knicks are more worried about their 1-4 start than which free agent they might sign next season from a crop of superstars that includes LeBron James, Mary Schmitt Boyer writes in the Cleveland Plain Dealer.

* * *

The New York Yankees celebrate their 27th World Series championship Friday with a ticker-tape parade. Pardon Sports Illustrated’s Joe Posnanski if he’s not too thrilled about New York’s success. It’s easy to be among baseball’s better teams with a payroll that dwarfs other large-market teams, he writes, but harder to celebrate the hope on Opening Day that isn’t there for many teams.

At CBS Sports, Danny Knobler looks ahead to the 2010 season and sees the possibility of another Fall Classic involving the Yanks and Phillies.

Finally, the Journal’s Darren Everson reports on what Hideki Matsui winning the World Series MVP award means both in the major leagues and in Japan.

* * *

When the betting line closes for Saturday’s Breeders’ Cup Classic, Zenyatta, the only mare in the $5 million race, could be the favorite. In the Los Angeles Daily News, Kevin Modesti finds there’s no consensus on Zenyatta’s chances to be favored in the 13-horse field.

In the Los Angeles Times, Eric Sondheimer finds that synthetic tracks such as Santa Anita where the Breeders’ Cup races are held aren’t necessarily safer than dirt tracks.

ESPN’s Rick Reilly tries calling a horse race, finding out it’s harder than you might imagine. Be sure to listen to the audio. And then listen to Chick Anderson’s famous call of Secretariat’s 31-length victory in the Belmont Stakes to win the 1973 Triple Crown.

* * *

Rush Limbaugh was going to be part of a bid to buy the NFL’s St. Louis Rams until too many people complained about the controversial talk-show host. Donald Sterling is a billionaire who settled a federal case this week for $2.73 million for alleged racial discrimination at apartments owned by him and his wife. Thousands of words were written against Limbaugh’s potential involvement with the Rams, but the same isn’t true about Sterling, who also owns the NBA’s Los Angeles Clippers. At Yahoo Sports, Dan Wetzel wonders why there’s no outcry against Sterling from either NBA owners or commissioner David Stern — or the media. (If you missed it earlier this year, ESPN’s Peter Keating had a thorough read on Sterling’s almost always awful Clippers and his dealings with apartment tenants.)

* * *

The sports world has always been filled with colorful characters and outsized egos: John McEnroe and Muhammad Ali, Mark Cuban and Dennis Rodman, Billy Martin and John Madden. The list is endless. But character and ego extend to the printed page, too. At the National Sports Journalism Center, Dave Kindred recounts that some of journalism’s best writers were just as combative and competitive as athletes.

* * *

At age 39, Mike Modano is in the twilight of his NHL career, which spans 20 seasons in Minnesota and Dallas, and includes a Stanley Cup with the Stars in 1999. Modano, the all-time U.S.-born scoring leader, still has something to prove, though. He’s out to show that last year’s disappointing point totals were a fluke and that he can still contribute, Jim Reeves writes in the Fort Worth Star-Telegram.

Who knows, maybe the next Modano will come out of California instead of Minnesota and Massachusetts. In the Orange County Register, Jeff Miller writes about JSerra and Santa Margarita, the first two high-school programs in Orange County.

– Tip of the Fix cap to the Journal’s Adam Thompson.

Found a good column from the world of sports? Don’t keep it to yourself — write to us at dailyfix@wsj.com and we’ll consider your find for inclusion in the Daily Fix. You can email Garey at ris84rap@gmail.com.

One way to measure a player’s contribution to his team is win probability added. For each Matsui plate appearance, he added a portion of a win equal to the probability the Yankees would win after his plate appearance, minus the probability before he stepped to the plate. A similar measure can be made for pitchers. By that count, Matsui contributed 0.64 of a win during the series, more than any other player on either team. His contribution was far greater even then the 0.36 win, combined, added by long-time Yankees Mariano Rivera, Derek Jeter, Andy Pettitte and Jorge Posada — “the men who connect all the dots in the Yankees’ universe,” according to ESPN’s Jayson Stark. Rivera was nearly flawless in his four appearances, but the games generally weren’t close. Pettitte got two wins but didn’t pitch well in either. Posada got on base in every game, but didn’t have a huge impact. And Jeter actually cost his team, despite his gaudy stats, because he hit into a crucial double play in the ninth inning of Game Five.

Matsui, meanwhile, made the most of his three starts at Yankee Stadium, and of his three pinch-hit opportunities when he was benched for defensive reasons in Philadelphia, where the teams played without a designated hitter. He became the first non-pitcher World Series MVP since 1986 to win the award while coming to the plate fewer than three times in any game. In 1986, Ray Knight was benched in favor of Howard Johnson in Game Two. (That series is now considered a classic, but it bored at least one observer before the thrilling end to Game Six.) In 1983, Rick Dempsey twice had just two plate appearances. And in 1981, co-MVP Steve Yeager twice had just one plate appearance. All of them, and every other position-player series MVP over the last 30 years, averaged at least 2.5 plate appearances per game, compared to 2.3 for Matsui. The typical MVP had 4.3 plate appearances per game. (Matsui could have the fewest plate appearances per game ever; I got tired of checking at 1980.)

It’s fitting that a batter won the MVP, because the Yankees excelled this year at hitting, not pitching. At Amazin’ Avenue, James Kannengieser points out that the Yankees weren’t particularly outstanding this season at pitching, running or defending, but led baseball in the major hitting statistics.

New York’s big pitching edge in the series came out of the bullpen. Beyond Rivera, the Yankees’ relievers weren’t great, and the team’s overall bullpen ERA in the series was 3.86. But that was nearly two runs better than Philadelphia’s bullpen, which also gave up three more hits or walks per nine innings. This was significant in a series in which the Yankees outscored the Phillies by just five runs. Both teams got some relief help from regular-season starters — Philadelphia’s J.A. Happ and New York’s Joba Chamberlain. That’s a marked change from the regular season, when far fewer starters make relief appearances these days than in early baseball history.

Though Pettitte got two wins, he didn’t pitch particularly well in either game — consistent with a striking characteristic of his career, that his win totals overstate the quality of his pitching. These days, Pettitte is “a slightly above average pitcher,” Tommy Bennett writes at Beyond the Boxscore. “Pettitte, it’s clear, is a fine pitcher, but his won-lost record says as much about the tremendous offensive teams backing him as it does about his pitching,” Sean Forman writes for the New York Times. ESPN’s Rob Neyer thinks Pettitte might need to reach 300 wins to reach the Hall of Fame, and he’s at least five years away from that milestone. But Tom Tango says a simple rule of thumb shows Pettitte is a viable candidate. Pettitte did outpitch his fellow veteran Game Six starter, Pedro Martinez. After Wednesday night, they both rank in the top 10 among oldest pitchers to start a World Series Game Six, though they’re outside the top 40 among all World Series starters. Martinez has had the better career, but Pettitte has been better lately.