Was that Zack Greinke this year, or Tim Lincecum? No, it was Randy Johnson, a decade ago. Johnson’s 17-9 record and 2.48 ERA beat out Mike Hampton’s 22 wins and 2.90 ERA, with Johnson getting 20 of 32 first-place votes for the award. In all, the Arizona ace beat out six credible starting-pitcher candidates, defined as those having more wins and an ERA at least 15% better than the league average. That was the most any Cy Young winner who was a starting pitcher ever did. This year, Greinke beat three such candidates, none of whom had more than three more wins than him, while Lincecum got more voting points than two such candidates, neither of whom had a wins edge as big as Hampton’s over Johnson.

Greinke’s and Lincecum’s victories last week were hailed as milestones in sabermetricians’ efforts to bury win-loss records as reliable indicators of pitcher value. But according to an analysis conducted for me by Phil Birnbaum, there have been many Greinkes and Lincecums in the 54-year history of the award, particularly in recent years. In 1958, just three years after the award debuted, Bob Turley and his 21 wins beat out Warren Spahn and his 22 wins, probably in part because Turley’s earned-run average was 0.1 run better. In all, 27 of the 89 starting pitchers who have won the award beat out a candidate with more wins and an ERA at least 15% better than league average.

Turley’s award notwithstanding, in the Cy’s early days it generally took an extraordinary performance to beat out a candidate with more wins — such as Bob Gibson’s 1.12 ERA in 1968, or Vida Blue’s 1.82 ERA in 1971. But lately such apparent upsets have become far more common, including in at least one league in 12 of the last 16 years. Besides 1999, Johnson also edged out candidates with more wins in 1995, 2000 and 2001. And this isn’t even the first year in which both leagues’ winners pulled off seeming upsets — it also happened in 2000, 2001 and 2004.

So why did this year’s winners gain so much attention? I think there are two reasons.

First, their win totals were so low. Greinke had 16, and Lincecum had 15. But then, standards for wins have had to be lowered, as five-man rotations and the decline of complete games means starting pitchers get the decision in fewer games. Twenty wins can’t be a benchmark for the Cy Young Award when no pitcher in either league achieves that mark. That also happened in the NL in 2007, and in both leagues in 2006. That’s five league win leaders in the last four years with under 20 wins — compared to just six, total, beforehand, going back to 1872, in seasons not shortened by work stoppage. The last league leader before 2006 with fewer than 20 wins was Rick Sutcliffe, with 18 in the NL in 1987.

And second, while wins have long been eclipsed, new statistics have taken the place of ERA for some voters. The prominence of ERA can be seen by this piece of historical context. Both Greinke and Lincecum beat out rival candidates with at least three more wins. That had happened to just five prior starters who won the award. And all five’s rivals with the big wins edge had ERAs at least 0.42 run higher, most much higher. But Greinke’s edge was just 0.33, and Lincecum’s was just 0.15 — which are even smaller as percentage terms than ERA differences in lower-scoring eras. The ready availability of stats that are superior to ERA because they account for unearned runs, fielding, park effects and other factors — such as wins above replacement, updated daily throughout the season at FanGraphs — has made it easier for writers to find deserving candidates further down the wins leader list.

Thanks to my father, Ezra, for the idea.

The good thing that happened in Detroit, in the game between two very bad teams, may be the most surprising of the day’s outcomes. Las Vegas set the over/under for the game at 37 points (in total, remember, not per team), which seemed reasonable enough considering the pair of ineptitude-intensive seasons the Lions and Browns had experienced to that point. But the game turned into a shootout, with embattled Browns quarterback Brady Quinn posting a career day and Stafford throwing for 422 yards and tying an NFL rookie record with five touchdown passes. Cleveland’s 24-3 first-quarter lead evaporated as the teams traded scores until after the final whistle. A pass-interference call on the Browns as time expired gave the Lions one untimed play from the 1-yard line, and an injured Stafford dragged himself off the sidelines with an injured shoulder to deliver the game-winner to rookie tight end Brandon Pettigrew.

“There is one reason and one reason only Lions coach Jim Schwartz let Stafford go back on the football field Sunday,” MLive’s Tom Kowalski writes. “Schwartz believes Stafford has the toughness to handle the pressure, the leadership to handle his teammates and, more than anything, that Stafford has ‘it.’ ”

The Browns, for their part, have a 1-9 record and a heartbreaking loss to show for their effort. Well, not only that, per the Canton Repository’s Todd Porter. “It might be the signature loss that ultimately leads to owner Randy Lerner paying another coach not to coach next season,” Porter writes. “Every fired coach needs one of these losses to hang his pink slip on. [Now Eric] Mangini has it.”

Oakland Raiders coach Tom Cable has been facing down a pink slip all season, for various reasons, but saw his team pick up a 20-17 win against the very tough Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday. While a couple of Cincy miscues helped, the victory was even more remarkable considering who was leading Oakland to victory at quarterback — Tampa Bay castoff Bruce Gradkowski, not JaMarcus Russell, the ultra-talented, ultra-disappointing former first overall draft pick. “The only difference between the two is that Gradkowski works harder, is in better shape, knows the offense better, knows defenses better, makes adjustments on the fly better, is a far-superior scrambler, is a more accurate passer, and brings more energy,” the San Francisco Chronicle’s Scott Ostler writes.

The Pittsburgh Steelers played without All-Pro safety Troy Polamalu at the start of their game against Kansas City and without star quarterback Ben Roethlisberger at the end of it after a big hit sent him to the sidelines (his backup, Charlie Batch, was injured and may miss six weeks). Injuries aside, the Steelers’ departure from K.C. without a victory also owed much to the big plays contributed by new Chiefs starting running back and kick returner Jamaal Charles, Adam Teicher writes in the Kansas City Star.

The early word on Roethlisberger was that he suffered something like a concussion. By Monday, Big Ben’s status was revised to “good to go in Week 12.” It’s a common thing in the NFL, but in the New York Times, Alan Schwarz reports that a still-vague, sorely belated, hugely welcome new concussion policy issued by the NFL may put an end to the league’s familiar concussion shuffle. One major issue is the potential conflict of interest facing a doctor paid by teams to assess players. “After an embarrassing hearing on the issue before the House Judiciary Committee last month in which the league was compared to the tobacco industry, the N.F.L. seems to have begun to embrace the value of outside opinion,” Schwarz writes.

* * *

The looming termination of Notre Dame head coach Charlie Weis, which seemed likely when Garey covered it last week, seems even more so today. Weis’s Irish dropped a double-overtime, 33-30, heartbreaker at home to Connecticut on Saturday and head into a tough game against Stanford with an underwhelming 6-5 record.

At CBS Sports, Dennis Dodd handicaps the potential replacements for Weis in South Bend. At Yahoo, Dan Wetzel is bullish on Notre Dame’s upcoming candidate search. “After a decade and a half of bad hires, if there’s anything that should elicit confidence for Notre Dame football fans, it’s this: they almost can’t get it wrong this time. There will be no excuses,” Wetzel writes. “Notre Dame will seek a replacement for Charlie Weis at the near perfect time — when competition for the best and brightest coaches willing to make a move is nonexistent.”

* * *

Blowouts are a fact of life in sports, but Tottenham Hotspur’s 9-1 victory over Wigan in English Premier League play was stunningly lopsided as soccer games go. The final score wasn’t the most impressive thing about this game, though. That would be the five goals — a total that tied a long-standing Premier League single-game record — scored by Tottenham forward Jermain Defoe.

More amazing still, at least to soccer neophytes such as your Fixer, is the fact that Defoe is unlikely to have a starting spot on England’s national team in the 2010 World Cup. “For all his undoubted brilliance in front of goal, Defoe’s style makes him something of a dying breed in an age when the smaller, goal-poaching type of forward is treated with increasing indifference by managers,” the Telegraph’s Jeremy Wilson writes.

While it was much more closely contested, no one would mistake Sunday’s MLS Cup matchup between Real Salt Lake and the Los Angeles Galaxy for a Premier League game. Or even a terribly well-played soccer game, period. The MLS Cup had some nice moments — including a pretty goal for Mike Magee set up by Galaxy stars David Beckham and Landon Donovan — but assorted injuries and sloppinesses piled up for Los Angeles. Donovan’s muffed penalty kick opened the door for the underdogs from Utah to steal the MLS Cup.

“RSL, frankly, was soccer’s version of the Washington Generals on Sunday night in the MLS Cup final,” the Salt Lake Tribune’s Gordon Monson writes. “And the Generals finally won. Nobody expected this.” In the Seattle Post-Intelligencer, Art Thiel writes that the game was enjoyable both despite and because of its myriad imperfections.

* * *

Given the whopping 108-point lead Jimmie Johnson carried into Sunday’s Nascar season finale at Miami-Homestead, it makes sense that many sportswriters (including your Fixer) started writing their “Johnson wins record fourth straight Nascar championship” leads a little early. But the inevitability of Johnson’s victory does nothing to diminish just how scary-good the 27-year-old looks, Ron Green Jr. writes at That’s Racin. “Johnson may not yet be loved the way Dale Earnhardt was and he may not have the hat, the shades and the wins that Richard Petty does,” Green writes. “But he has his own unmatched place in the sport’s 62-year history. Like Michael Jordan, Tiger Woods and Roger Federer at their peaks, Jimmie Johnson is that good.”

* * *

Catching a 157-pound bluefin tuna is not an easy thing to do under the best of circumstances, and not just because the world’s bluefin stocks are dangerously close to collapse. But catching a tuna from a kayak is almost impossible to imagine. In the New York Times, Charles McGrath tells the story of Dave Lamoureux, an ace Massachusetts kayak fisherman who has caught three bluefins that way since July.

Found a good column from the world of sports? Don’t keep it to yourself — write to us at dailyfix@wsj.com and we’ll consider your find for inclusion in the Daily Fix. You can email David at droth11@gmail.com.

Associated Press

Derrick Mason (85) had a game-high nine catches for 142 yards for the Ravens, who were held without a touchdown by the Colts.

The Journal provides minute-by-minute analysis of the Indianapolis Colts’ 17-15 victory over the Baltimore Ravens at M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore. Journal staffer Peter Sanders offers commentary on the game and the CBS telecast.

11:45 am | Pregame | by Peter Sanders

The last time I visited Baltimore, sometime around the beginning of this decade, the city put a beating on me after a bit too much fun wining and dining at various establishments around the Inner Harbor.

The last time Peyton Manning and the Indianapolis Colts visited Baltimore—in December 2007 -- they put a beating on the Ravens, with Manning throwing for four touchdowns. Final score: 44-20. The birds didn’t fare much better last year against the ponies in Indianapolis, where Manning led the Colts to their first win at their new stadium in a 31-3 drubbing.

Today, when the erstwhile Baltimore Colts take on the Ravens, they do so with a 9-0 record after barely squeaking by New England last week, helped by the Patriots’ patriarch -- Bill Belichick -- miscalculating on a late fourth-down play call. Belichick’s folly was all Manning needed to rally the Colts for a come-from-behind one-point win and the preservation of an unbeaten record.

Now, the Colts are trying to stay a few steps ahead of the AFC rival Cincinnati Bengals to determine home field advantage throughout the playoffs.

Meantime, the Ravens (5-4) are looking for a big-time upset even though they haven’t beaten the Colts since 2001. Look for Manning to try to dominate, Ray Lewis to entertain and make some big hits and look for me rooting around my cabinets for some Old Bay seasoning and a few crabs that need steaming.

1:07 pm | First quarter | by Peter Sanders

OK...here we go. For starters, Dan Dierdorf looks about how I feel this morning. The loss of Terrell Suggs last week is what is going to doom the Ravens, say Greg Gumbel and Big Dan. Also, Peyton is a genius, they say. The sun is shining in Bawlmer. CBS is ready and so am I.

1:08 pm | First quarter | by Peter Sanders

Manning takes the ball around his own 13 yard line. On third down, he gets himself out of a jam by completing a first-down pass to Reggie Wayne. Ray Lewis got his first lick in and hammered Peyton after the pass got off. Colts take it at their own 29.

And then...first and goal. Just. Like. That. Long bomb to Pierre Garcon that almost went all the way. Colts trying to push it into the end zone on their first series.

1:12 pm | First quarter | by Peter Sanders

An unreal one-arm catch....Dallas Clark wide open in the corner of the end zone. Clark reels it in for a 3-yard touchdown and, in the process, passes John Mackey for the alltime Colts record for receptions by a tight end. That didn't take long as the Colts go up 7-0 less than four minutes in.

1:15 pm | First quarter | by Peter Sanders

The Ravens return the kickoff back to about their own 20 but Lardarius Webb appears to have fumbled the ball as he was tackled. Colts recover. But it's a close call and like a dutiful coach, John Harbaugh threw the challenge flag. Let's hope Webb's knees were down, otherwise Peyton is going back to business at the Ravens' 20.

1:16 pm | First quarter | by Peter Sanders

And the play is reversed after review. Harbaugh keeps a timeout and Joe Flacco takes over with 11:14 left in the first quarter.

1:20 pm | First quarter | by Peter Sanders

Flacco, like Peyton before, gets out of his first third-down jam. Ray Rice is already carrying a load for the Ravens as Flacco tries to move them downfield to answer the Colts' first score.

1:22 pm | First quarter | by Peter Sanders

Flacco and the Ravens get confused in the bright sunlight, which is probably why Peyton is wearing a baseball cap on the sidelines. The Ravens' efficient drive downfield is getting a bit jammed up by the Colts defense. Timeout Ravens with just under seven minutes in the first.

1:29 pm | First quarter | by Peter Sanders

Joe Flacco was 4-for-4 in the air until just now, when Colts rookie Jacob Lacey broke up a pass intended for Derrick Mason. Then on third down, Flacco overthrows to Mason...here comes the field-goal unit. Billy Cundiff snuck one in on a 46-yard FG attempt. 7-3 Colts with under six minutes left in the first.

1:30 pm | First quarter | by Peter Sanders

You know what you get as a reward for a Ravens' field goal? You get to watch a dude talk to himself in a series of office-building windows. His alter ego is convincing him to talk to his doctor about Viagra. The mirror says it is. But the dude in the voiceover is talking about all the bad things that can happen to you when you take it. Clearly, the man in the mirror can't hear the voiceover.

1:33 pm | First quarter | by Peter Sanders

Manning and the Colts take over at their own 24. Manning throws and it's popped up and grabbed by the Ravens. One play, one interception. Dawan Landry with the pick. Flacco takes over at the Colts' 29. Eighth pick for Manning of the season, according to Greg Gumbel.

1:36 pm | First quarter | by Peter Sanders

Solid Colts defense batting and swatting footballs out of the air. Flacco can't convert the pick into a TD. Cundiff back in the game and nails another 40+ yarder. It's a 7-6 game with four minutes left in the first.

1:39 pm | First quarter | by Peter Sanders

Apparently, the word "Colts" isn't used in Baltimore. Indy, is the preferred nickname. Hard feelings last decades up there.

After a penalty on the kickoff return, Colts start at their own 11 with under four minutes to play.

1:41 pm | First quarter | by Peter Sanders

That interception? Yeah, that's ancient history. Two passes to tight end Tom Santi and the Colts are on the move again. At the Ravens' 45 with just over a minute to play in the quarter.

1:43 pm | First quarter | by Peter Sanders

Colts go for it on fouth and 1 but Manning can't get things sorted out with his audibles. He's forced to take a timeout and we're forced to watch another commercial.

1:48 pm | First quarter | by Peter Sanders

Colts center Jeff Saturday gets flagged for holding and will bring back Joseph Addai's first-down effort, turning the Colts' fourth down into a punt. Fair catch for the Ravens. Sidenote, Gumbel and Dierdorf gave Saturday's hold high marks for an open-field tackle. Ravens take over and get one play off before the quarter ends with Indianapolis up 7-6.

1:54 pm | Second quarter | by Peter Sanders

I'm no ref, but even I saw Ravens right tackle Michael Oher jump that ball. Flacco and Ray Rice can't get things going. Ravens will have to punt from their own end zone at the start of the second quarter. T.J. Rushing doesn't get much on the return and a 10-yard penalty will push the Colts back to about the 50 when they take over.

1:55 pm | Second quarter | by Peter Sanders

Even though he sounds like he should be waiting tables at some bistro in Paris, Pierre Garcon is pulling down balls tossed his way by Manning. But so far, the Colts haven't been able to get much going on the ground. That Baltimore defense can still bring the stifle.

2:01 pm | Second quarter | by Peter Sanders

Manning just went over the 3,000 yard passing mark for the season. The rest of the Colts must have been digesting that because Manning again took a timeout as his audible wasn't getting processed fast enough. Third and 1 and Donald Brown gets the short-yardage first down with nine minutes left in the half.

2:05 pm | Second quarter | by Peter Sanders

Another big INT by the Ravens. Manning went deep for Reggie Wayne, but Ed Reed stepped in and picked it off around the 10 yard line, returning it back towards midfield. Meantime, Ray Lewis gets off the field three plays after his right ankle appeared to get caught in the scrum and dialed him down a notch or two.

Manning's gonna need the time to get his head straight. Lewis will try to get his ankle straight. 8:33 left in the half.

2:07 pm | Second quarter | by Peter Sanders

After grinding out a dozen or so runs, Ray Rice finally breaks one open -- if just a bit. Gets Baltimore another first down. At the Colts 22, Flacco will try to move the Ravens into the end zone for the first time today with 5:40 left in the half.

2:12 pm | Second quarter | by Peter Sanders

Third and 7 and the Colts bring the blitz. Flacco dumps one over the middle and Billy Cundiff comes out for his third kick of the day. So the Ravens take the lead 9-7 (all on field goals; this time a 38-yarder ) with a little over four minutes left in the half.

Volkswagen really wants to sell cars. Also, Sony dropped some serious cash on its HDTV commercials. Justin Timberlake and Peyton Manning in the same spot. Funny, my Sony HDTV doesn't really make the commercial all that much better.

2:16 pm | Second quarter | by Peter Sanders

The Colts bright spot so far today is their tight ends: Dallas Clark and Tom Santi. Santi has pulled in three receptions today, including a body-twister just now to put the Colts well into field-goal range. No good deed goes unpunished, however, as Santi is doubled over on the sidelines trying to get some air.

Reggie Wayne grabs a diving catch inside the Ravens' 20 yard line. Colts get a first down as we approach the two-minute warning. But Harbaugh goes and spoils the fun, he throws the challenge flag as........wait. No, he takes it back. First down, Colts.

2:21 pm | Second quarter | by Peter Sanders

The NFL has an official air freshener. It's Febreze, if you were wondering.

2:23 pm | Second quarter | by Peter Sanders

Joseph Addai charges five yards into the end zone with 1:30 remaining in the half. Extra point is good and it's 14-9 Colts. Ray Lewis gets juked hard, by the way.

Ravens are pushing hard as the half winds down. Flacco airing it out and giving the ball to Ray Rice, as they try to push things into field-goal range, once again. Nice strike just now to Derrick Mason to get the ball within range. Timeout with 29 seconds left.

Poor Billy Cundiff. He's stretching again. Reminds me of that awesome Keanu Reeves movie, "The Replacements." I've never met Billy Cundiff, but I like to think he's like the Rhys Ifans character. You know, the cranky English footballer called on to kick the football between smoke breaks.

2:31 pm | Halftime | by Peter Sanders

And Cundiff is 4-for-4 after a 36-yarder. Makes it 14-12 Colts and Cundiff will go for the old onsides kick with two seconds left. Colts recover and after a bunch of dancing the Ravens bring down the kick returner and they head for the locker rooms.

2:47 pm | Third quarter | by Peter Sanders

Second half gets underway and Flacco and Ray Rice go to work. We'll see if either team can break something out, or if we're gonna grind it out for another two quarters. Looked like Gary Brackett picked it off from the first camera angle, but it clearly bounced off the ground before he picked it up.

Ravens go four-and-out. T.J. Rushing takes a fair catch at the Colts' 32-yard line and Manning will try to redeem his shaky first-half performance.

2:51 pm | Third quarter | by Peter Sanders

Not gonna say I understand the GoDaddy.com commercials. But I am also not going to say I don't like them. I do cringe a tiny bit for Danica Patrick every time though.

2:52 pm | Third quarter | by Peter Sanders

Tom Santi found his wind again and grabs another pass from Manning for a Colts first down. So far, it's been the Wayne-Addai-Santi show. "It's an orchestra and in every chair sits someone who has to play and play well," says Dierdorf.

First and 10 with 10:54 left in the third quarter.

2:57 pm | Third quarter | by Peter Sanders

Ouch. That is one for SportsCenter. Tom Santi, we come to praise thee, not to bury thee. But Ray Lewis buried his helmet right into Santi's shoulder, spinning him around and knocking the ball loose. What was almost a guaranteed Colts touchdown turned into a fumble and Ravens recovery.

That's three turnovers for the Colts today and Flacco gets the ball back around his own 7-yard line.

3:02 pm | Third quarter | by Peter Sanders

Flacco nearly gets sacked in his own end zone, but lofts a bomb to Derrick Mason, who pulls it in and the Ravens get a 45-yard gain. But on the very next play.....CONFUSION! Willis McGahee appears to get stripped after a solid first-down run and the Colts recover, but it's out of bounds. So, it's ruled Ravens ball. But Harbaugh challenges the entire play saying McGahee was down before he got stripped.

Gumbel is confused, Dierdorf is very confused...that means I am totally lost.

3:04 pm | Third quarter | by Peter Sanders

Harbaugh gets another big decision. McGahee was ruled down before he got stripped and it's like all those shenanigans never even happened. Ravens go first and 10 on the Colts 32 with 7:10 left in the third.

Ray Rice breaks through, gets inside the 20 on a quick run and the Ravens make a charge for their first end-zone visit of the day.

3:08 pm | Third quarter | by Peter Sanders

The Ravens just can't seem to find the end zone today. Even with being gifted three turnovers. Poor Billy Cundiff. Apparently, four field goals is his limit. He kicks his fifth attempt "juuuuuuust a bit outside," as Bob Uecker would say. Score stays 14-12 Colts and Tom Santi apparently tweaked his neck on that nasty hit. So we'll see if he comes back today.

3:11 pm | Third quarter | by Peter Sanders

Scratch that. Santi is back in the game. Dallas Clark lets one slip through his hands and it nearly turned into Manning's third INT. Colts go four-and-out. Ed Reed gets nothing. Ravens take over at their own 32 with about three minutes left in the quarter.

3:16 pm | Third quarter | by Peter Sanders

Derrick Mason. You know you should never take your eyes off the ball. Even if Colts rookie Jacob Lacey is bearing down on you like a derailed freight train. Especially if you're that wide open. You'll drop the ball every single time.

You redeemed yourself on the next play, Mason, a nice first down reception. It had the distinction of exciting Gumbel and the Dorf because they could hear the ball striking your shoulder pads. Hard.

3:20 pm | Third quarter | by Peter Sanders

That's the end of three. Colts still holding on, 14-12. Manning looks sad and frustrated. He knows he's got one more quarter to break this thing open or risk his unbeaten season. The Ravens, well, you can tell they smell blood, but they need to find that big open space of grass that sits just beyond the 1-yard line.

Old Billy Cundiff looks like he's ready for a pint or two.

3:26 pm | Fourth quarter | by Peter Sanders

Greg Gumbel welcomes us all back to crab-cake country. Joe Flacco and Rice are slowly moving the ball downfield. The Dorf read my mind when he said "we're reaching that magical point on the field" where the Ravens drives come to "a screeching halt."

Mason probably heard the Dorf too. Mason burns Jacob Lacey and grabs a nice ball just inbounds. Ravens march on down from the Colts 13-yard line with 12:30 left in the fourth quarter.

3:27 pm | Fourth quarter | by Peter Sanders

Flacco can't quite sneak it in on first and goal. Willis McGahee can't sneak it in on second and goal. Gary Brackett turns into a 5-foot-11-inch brick wall. Third and goal, even worse than second.

Dorf says it was a busted play. Whatever it was, Cundiff is back on field for his sixth try. And a 20-yarder is good. Cundiff is 5-for-6 and Ravens take the lead 15-14.

3:35 pm | by Editor

We're having a technical problem. The live blog will resume once we get it worked out.

3:40 pm | Fourth quarter | by Peter Sanders

Ravens nose tackle Haloti Ngata may have just caught a lucky break. After his unnecessary-roughness penalty against Pierre Garcon, it looked like Manning was going to march the Colts right into the end zone. But the Ravens D held tough, limiting the Colts to only a 25-yard field goal for former Raven Matt Stover. 17-15 Indy with about seven minutes to play.

3:42 pm | Fourth quarter | by Peter Sanders

Between Viagra and Flomax and a ton of old-people CBS shows I don't ever watch (except for Big Bang Theory on airplanes), I do not feel that I'll be watching more CBS anytime soon.

3:45 pm | Fourth quarter | by Peter Sanders

With just over six minutes left, Flacco and Ray Rice are trying to get something going. Cundiff could be the hero here if he gets another shot at the uprights. It's second and 10 from the Ravens own 45.

Rice peels off a big one, gets to the Colts 35 yard line on a 22-yard carry.

3:46 pm | Fourth quarter | by Peter Sanders

Ray Rice has 138 combined yards so far and both sides get a quick breather as Colts DB Tim Jennings leaves the field after getting shaken up.

It's third and long for the Ravens and Flacco connects with Mason at the Colts' 17. First and 10. Manning looks concerned from the sidelines.

3:54 pm | Fourth quarter | by Peter Sanders

Rice just gets pushed way back and the debate is on: How much time do you give Manning? That's assuming Cundiff makes his kick or Flacco gets a TD in the next two plays.

Uh oh. Flacco throws it right to Gary Brackett and the Colts get the INT. There was a false start that went uncalled and now they're wishing it had. First Ravens turnover at the worst time.

Manning takes over with 2:42 and a two-point lead.

3:56 pm | Fourth quarter | by Peter Sanders

Manning appears to have gotten the first down after a nice catch by Reggie Wayne. The officials bring out the chains...this could be the game if the Colts get the first down...and by a nose, it's a first down. Refs will review the spot....Harbaugh's gotten a lot of use out of that red flag today.

3:57 pm | Fourth quarter | by Peter Sanders

The Dorf and Gumbel are making french jokes about Garcon and the word "derriere." I like it.

3:59 pm | Fourth quarter | by Peter Sanders

Harbaugh's first failed challenge of the day, and it's costly. Ravens lose their final timeout of the game and Manning gets the ball again for at least four more downs. 2:19 left in the fourth. Colts take it at their own 31.

Quick false start on the offense and the Colts will back it up. That one is on Santi.

4:01 pm | Fourth quarter | by Peter Sanders

Two minutes to go. Manning gives it to Addai and keeps it on the ground. The Colts are going to "slow-play" them, my friends.

4:03 pm | Fourth quarter | by Peter Sanders

Ack! Now there's a Lipitor commercial on. After the game, I'm going to run a 10K and maybe swim a few miles....Is CBS trying to give me a heart attack AND a small bladder AND erectile dysfunction? I thought when I woke up this morning I was perfectly healthy. A few hours later, I'm questioning everything!

4:04 pm | Fourth quarter | by Peter Sanders

The Ravens will get it back for one more shot....Cundiff might be the hero as the Colts ready to punt it away. Ed Reed will receive it for the Ravens. The punt will go off with around 25 seconds to go.

4:11 pm | Fourth quarter | by Peter Sanders

Dear Ed Reed. That was really stupid. Tried to lateral it to a teammate but ended up with a fumble. Colts recovered. The Dorf agrees with me.

4:12 pm | Fourth quarter | by Peter Sanders

Again, it's all about the knees. Was he down, or not? Ruling on the field is a fumble, with the Colts recovering. Even if it's down and the Ravens keep it, they've still got to get Billy C. into field-goal range.

4:13 pm | Final | by Peter Sanders

That's all she wrote, folks.

Manning gets it back and he'll take a knee. The Ravens scored 15 points on field goals and the Colts' 17 weren't much prettier. The Colts, who win 17-15 to squeak another one out, and the New Orleans Saints (Geaux Saints!) are the two remaining unbeaten teams in the NFL.

4:29 pm | Postgame | by Peter Sanders

The Colts and their QB Peyton Manning (he of recent Sports Illustrated cover-story fame) came into Baltimore undefeated though shaky. Manning threw two picks but almost had 300 yards in the air. Manning can thank his defense for the win, as the unit kept the Ravens out of the end zone the entire game.

As for the Ravens, Joe Flacco was solid until the very end, when he threw a most inopportune interception. Ray Rice was tasked with carrying the load and did so, though he never found the end zone.

Apparently, the Ravens will have to wait another year to break their losing streak against Indianapolis, which now stretches back to 2001.

Getty Images

Cal’s Shane Vereen (34), who ran for a career-high 193 yards on 42 carries, scores one of his three touchdowns.

The Journal provides minute-by-minute analysis of 25th-ranked Cal’s 34-28 victory over No. 17 Stanford in Stanford, California. Guest blogger Pete McEntegart offers commentary on the game and the Versus telecast, while Journal staffer Stu Woo adds insight from Stanford Stadium.

7:17 pm | Pregame | by Pete McEntegart

It’s an old sportswriting chestnut that when handicapping a classic college rivalry game, you can “throw out the records.” And most years, Stanford and Cal would probably take that deal in a second. Not so before the 112th edition of the “Big Game.”

Stanford and Cal bring matching 7-3 records into today’s showdown at Stanford Stadium, the first time since 1991 that both teams entered the game with at least seven victories. Cal has won six of the last seven games in the series, but coach Jim Harbaugh’s Cardinal will bring in one of the hottest offenses in the nation. Stanford has scored at least 50 points in each of the past two weeks in eye-opening victories over Oregon (51-42) and, especially, at USC (55-21).

Of course, that would only make it all the sweeter for Cal if the Bears can chop down tree-trunk-legged Stanford tailback Toby Gerhart (401 yards and 6 TDs the last two weeks alone) to win The Axe. Hope you’ll be following along with us all game long to find out.

7:34 pm | Pregame | by Pete McEntegart

I'll be live-blogging today from Q's Billiards on Wilshire Boulevard in Los Angeles amidst the L.A. brach of the Stanford Young Alumni group. That gives me a slightly worse vantage point than Tiger Woods and Jahvid Best, who will each be watching this game from the sidelines at Stanford Stadium.

Alas, that's a bad trade for Cal. El Tigre is Stanford's honorary captain for today's game, while Cal's star tailback will miss another game with a concussion suffered on a scary leap into the end zone two weeks ago. Just as I typed that, Tiger appeared on the Versus broadcast and got a big cheer from the Cardinal folks here at Q. Though I'm betting that virtually all of them lasted at Stanford twice as long as Tiger, who went there for two years. See, kids, you'll never make it big without a degree.

7:36 pm | First quarter | by Pete McEntegart

Stanford gets the ball first. Chris Owusu (three KO returns for TDs this year) takes it just outside the 30. Redshirt freshman Andrew Luck will lead the Cardinal out from there.

7:37 pm | First quarter | by Stu Woo

This is the first Big Game in recent history that has mattered for both teams. For Cal, that's bad news.

The Bears have dominated the game since 2002, winning all but one since then. But there was a sense of doom for Cal fans heading into the stadium "I think we're going to get killed," said 14-year-old Kenneth Evans. "We don't have Jahvid Best. They have Toby Gerhart. And Stanford's been on fire."

7:40 pm | First quarter | by Pete McEntegart

TOUCHDOWN, Stanford! On third and two, Gerhart takes a handoff and heads off tackle to his left. Unfortunately for the Bears, nobody bothered to tackle him as he rumbled 60+ yards for the score. He's now tied "Touchdown Tommy" Vardell for the school single-season TD record with 20, despite not having as cool a nickname. 7-0 Stanford with 13:24 left in the first.

7:42 pm | First quarter | by Stu Woo

Cal fans' worst fears have been realized just 90 seconds into the game as Gerhart goes 61 yards practically untouched -- the longest run of his career. The Stanford band busts into their de facto fight song, "All Right Now" by Free. Cal's blue-and-gold-striped clad student section -- they pretty much look like bees -- definitely aren't buzzing.

7:46 pm | First quarter | by Pete McEntegart

Cal goes three-and-out on its first drive. QB Kevin Riley tried to scramble on third-and-long but no dice. Riley has been the bellwether for Cal this season. When he's played well, they've won, but he's been way off in their losses. We'll see which Riley shows up today. Stanford will get the ball for the second time after the punt.

7:49 pm | First quarter | by Stu Woo

That Luck scramble for a first down is something that Cal's Riley hasn't been able to do all season -- improvise while in pressure. Cal fans should worry when he's forced out of the pocket.

7:51 pm | First quarter | by Stu Woo

I should probably offer the disclaimer that I grew up a Cal fan, but will try to stay objective for this game. I even broke out my red-and-blue checkered shirt for the occasion.

7:53 pm | First quarter | by Pete McEntegart

Luck one-ups Riley by scrambling for a first down on third-and-long, just getting it by a yard. The Cardinal stall after that, however, as a receiver is tackled short of the marker on third down. Stanford punts; Bears will start from their own 11. I really want to type "Cards" but apparently that's not allowed. Damn those odd collegiate nicknames! 9:07 left in the first.

7:56 pm | First quarter | by Stu Woo

That botched exchange between Riley and Vereen might not have happened with Best in the game -- Jahvid has taken the bulk of the handoffs this season. After the botched punt, the Cardinal threaten right in front of a despondent Berkeley student section.

7:56 pm | First quarter | by Pete McEntegart

Cal's forced to punt again and ... it's blocked! DE Chase Thomas got it. Cardinal will start at the Cal 19 looking to go up two scores here early.

8:00 pm | First quarter | by Pete McEntegart

TD, Stanford! Gerhart carries guys in from the 2. 14-0 Cardinal. Sadly I'm writing this on my Blackberry. Wifi is poky. I'm pretty sure this Q's wasn't founded by James Bond's tech genius.

8:01 pm | First quarter | by Stu Woo

Here's something new compared to recent Big Games: Stanford fans aren't particularly delirious about the latest score. It's not that they're not appreciative, but it's that they're not as touchdown-starved as previous Cardinal teams. That speaks to Harbaugh's work this year in upsetting USC and Oregon.

But as one Cal fan put it before the game, Stanford fans should be wary, because it's when Stanford gets too confident that they falter. See: 1982, The Play.

8:02 pm | First quarter | by Pete McEntegart

Riley scrambles for a first down out to midfield. Bears need to start scoring some points, because it doesn't seem like they have an answer for Gerhart. Not that anyone else has in the Pac-10 lately, but still.

8:04 pm | First quarter | by Stu Woo

Tedford goes to the Wildcat formation to get the first down. You have to wonder that with Best out, Tedford will rely on more of the gimmick/trick plays he favors to get more yards out of a struggling offense.

8:07 pm | First quarter | by Pete McEntegart

Riley complete to WR Verran Tucker for another first down. Bears driving. At the Cardinal 30. Oops, and while I was crafting what I'm sure was going to be a very funny joke about Tiger Woods, the Bears get another first down at the 15.

8:07 pm | First quarter | by Pete McEntegart

First and goal for the Bears inside the 5. Riley flipped a shovel pass to tailback Isi Sofele.

8:08 pm | First quarter | by Stu Woo

Riley's shovel pass puts Cal at the three. Not sure if the play was drawn up that way, since it seemed to catch the receiver by surprise.

8:09 pm | First quarter | by Stu Woo

Cal gets stuffed from the Wildcat inside the five. That formation has been unfortunate near the goal line for the Bears lately. If you remember, Best got his concussion while scoring from the Wildcat two weeks ago.

8:12 pm | First quarter | by Pete McEntegart

Field goal Cal. Now 14-3 Stanford with 53 seconds left in the first. The Bears tried two Wildcat plays with tailback Shane Vereen -- the main man now with Best out -- that went nowhere. Riley tried to find Marvin Jones on the fade on third down, but it was well-defended by Johnson Bademosi. So Cal had to settle for the chip shot.

8:15 pm | First quarter | by Stu Woo

A break to reflect on the first quarter. Cal was more consistent on offense, and the Bears have been able to stop Gerhart since his 61-yard romp. But Luck has looked much more comfortable in the pocket than Riley, who has shown some signs of life.

8:19 pm | First quarter | by Pete McEntegart

End of first quarter, 14-3 Stanford. Gerhart ripped off another big gainer on Stanford's first play after the kickoff. Cardinal will have the ball near their own 45 after the teams change sides.

8:21 pm | Second quarter | by Stu Woo

On a personal note here, it's been my first Big Game at the new Stanford Stadium (and the second one overall), and it's clear that the fans are playing a much bigger factor in the game. The old stadium had a track between the field and stands. Now, both student sections are 10 yards from the end zone, so players get much more of an earful.

8:22 pm | Second quarter | by Stu Woo

Cal fans are relieved after Riley actually makes a good pass -- and the receiver holds on. But a memo to the Stanford defense: Riley seems to be continuing his career-long habit of telegraphing his passes by staring only at one receiver after the snap.

8:27 pm | Second quarter | by Pete McEntegart

Since my end-of-first-Q post is still sitting on my screen, taunting me, I'm sticking with the smartphone. Cal driving inside 20 ... INT! Richard Sherman picks it for Stanford. Still 14-3 as I consider posting by pigeon.

8:31 pm | Second quarter | by Stu Woo

Stanford fans are feeling good right now, but the Cardinal really hasn't done much since the opening minutes of the game. Take away Gerhart's run and Stanford has gained only about 60 yards so far. They've had some luck, as evidence from that interception from a tipped pass, and Cal's failure to reciprocate the interception on a similar play just now.

8:32 pm | Second quarter | by Stu Woo

Luck hasn't passed so well, only 4 for 9 for 27 yards, and Gerhart is getting stuffed now. Still, Luck's making plays with his feet and on third down to keep drives going.

8:34 pm | Second quarter | by Stu Woo

Cal finally catches a break when their opponents drop a pass instead of them. With less than seven minutes in the half, the Bears can head into halftime down by only four -- plus the ball back to start the second half -- if they can go 85 yards for a score.

8:35 pm | Second quarter | by Pete McEntegart

A wide-open Owusu drops a pass on third down over the middle or he might still be running. Well, not by the time you read this but for quite a while. Stanford punts.

8:38 pm | Second quarter | by Stu Woo

It's always a question of when, not if, Tedford calls for the trick play. But Harbaugh looks as if he's prepped his defense well, as they're all over the flea-flicker.

8:39 pm | Second quarter | by Pete McEntegart

Vereen picks up a first down on the ground for the Bears, giving them enough pep to try a flea-flicker. It's covered well, though, and Riley must throw it away. But a nine-yard completion, a Vereen run and a Riley scramble moves ball past midfield.

8:41 pm | Second quarter | by Stu Woo

Riley continues his maddening inconsistency. He scrambles for eight, and then throws behind a receiver. He then scrambles for a first on third-and-2 -- and then promptly leaves a deep ball hanging too long with an open receiver in the end zone. Cal fans know this all too well.

8:44 pm | Second quarter | by Pete McEntegart

Riley finds WR Alex Lagemann for first down inside 20. Then Vereen breaks tackles down to the 7. First and goal.

8:46 pm | Second quarter | by Pete McEntegart

TD, Cal! The XP makes it 14-10 Stanford with 45 seconds left in the half. Vereen took it in from the 2 after picking up 5 yards on first down. Bears right back in this game.

8:47 pm | Second quarter | by Stu Woo

Cal fans erupt -- erupt! -- as the Bears score in front of their cheering section. That sense of hopelessness from the game's opening minutes are now gone. With both quarterbacks making plays now, this could go down to the wire.

8:53 pm | Halftime | by Pete McEntegart

With Stanford near midfield in the closing seconds of the half, Luck bobbles a shotgun snap. When he has trouble picking it up, he wisely just falls on it. We go to the half with the score 14-10 Stanford. The Cardinal looked like it might break things open early but the Bears did well to right themselves. So far the big loser is my internet connection, but there's another half to turn that around as well.

8:59 pm | Halftime | by Stu Woo

With the half over, I've moved onto pondering over things far more important than the game. Such as: What's the Stanford band going to do for their halftime show?

Earlier this month at USC, they left to boos after bashing USC alum Joe Francis of "Girls Gone Wild" and numerous serious accusations fame. What will Stanford do to skewer Cal today? Are the recent University of California tuition hikes that led to '60s-styles protests at Berkeley fair game?

9:00 pm | Halftime | by Stu Woo

A quick note: Tiger Woods, who attended Stanford, gets honored here at halftime. His prediction: "The second half is ours." He's wearing a red Stanford sweatshirt and a red Stanford hat that -- surprise, surpise -- has a big Nike swoosh on it.

9:09 pm | Halftime | by Stu Woo

C'mon, Stanford band, you can do better. Its halftime show consisted of comparing Cal mascot Oski ("soft and spongy," "dances like an old man") to real bears ("powerful and angry," "roam around feasting on animals"), while failing to note that its old mascot looks like a dancing, drugged-out Christmas tree.

Football, please.

9:21 pm | Third quarter | by Stu Woo

I'm standing behind the Stanford section, and there's the feeling that the Cardinal might blow it. Curse words are flying after Riley makes three good passes on the half's opening drive.

9:22 pm | Third quarter | by Stu Woo

Vereen has shown flashes of Jahvid Best tonight by turning potential stopped-for-losses into gains. Still, he doesn't appear to have that extra move the Best seemingly always had to break into a long run.

9:25 pm | Third quarter | by Stu Woo

Cal's touchdown drive to end the first half seems to have jolted some verve into Riley, who's scrambled out of trouble and is putting some zing behind his passes. (He could've used that when he lobbed that first-quarter interception.) Now Tedford wants to sustain that momentum. He apparently thought the third and 2 at the Stanford 30 was important enough to call a timeout. It's paying off so far now with Cal at the eight. Stanford cheering section is silent.

9:26 pm | Third quarter | by Pete McEntegart

While I wait to see whether the post that's been sitting on my computer since hitting "send" before the second half started ever arrives, Riley has thrown Cal inside the 5. First and goal.

9:27 pm | Third quarter | by Pete McEntegart

TD, Cal! Vereen burrows in from a few yards out. XP makes it 17-14 Cal with 9:55 left in the third. But Riley was the man on that march. He flung it around impressively and this time his receivers caught most of them.

9:28 pm | Third quarter | by Stu Woo

Chants of "Ca-li-for-nia" from the blue-and-gold section. The elderly Stanford fan in front of me just muttered, "No joy in Mudville."

9:31 pm | Third quarter | by Pete McEntegart

Owusu breaks a big return and Cal tacks on a late hit. Stanford will start from Cal 27. Bears appeared to try a squib to keep ball from Owusu but it squibbed too far.

9:32 pm | Third quarter | by Stu Woo

Cal fans' worst-fears realized #2: Its underperforming kicking team blows the game. All year, the Bears have struggled on kickoffs and Tedford switched between kickers because he was unhappy about their performance. The kickers have now taken to squibbing the kickoffs, and the last one results in a ball fielded at the 15 and a great return for Stanford.

9:34 pm | Third quarter | by Pete McEntegart

Stanford misses FG from 45. Ouch. No points after starting drive just two yards behind where a team gets ball in OT. Big stand by Cal D. Still 17-14.

9:35 pm | Third quarter | by Stu Woo

By my count, Stanford fans outnumber Cal ones three to one here. Yet the only thing I can hear after that missed field goal is "Go Bears!"

9:38 pm | Third quarter | by Pete McEntegart

Vereen breaks long run around left side down to Stanford 17. Cardinal fans at Q's are awfully quiet while the Cal minority is feeling its oats.

9:41 pm | Third quarter | by Pete McEntegart

Vereen plows ahead on third and short. First and goal from the 5. And it's the Bears, not the Cardinal, dominating on the ground.

9:47 pm | Third quarter | by Pete McEntegart

TD, Cal! It's Vereen again; this time from the 3. He holds the ball over while in traffic to break the plane. It's reviewed but upheld, which is the right call. It's 24-14 Cal with 3:50 to play in the third. Maybe the Cardinal should suit up Tiger.

9:47 pm | Third quarter | by Stu Woo

Credit Tedford for a calling a good mix of passes and runs on this drive -- especially sweeps, where his swift but less-agile-than-Best backs can just outrun the defense. The result: a 10-point lead.

9:50 pm | Third quarter | by Stu Woo

If Stanford's going to come back, it'll do so based on the strength of its veteran offensive line, which is giving Luck an obscene amount of time in the pocket. Still, they haven't opened holes for Gerhart since the first quarter.

9:50 pm | Third quarter | by Pete McEntegart

After Gerhart picks up a first down on third and short, Luck goes deep down the middle off play action and finds his TE. Cardinal in business near Cal 30.

9:52 pm | Third quarter | by Pete McEntegart

TD, Cardinal! Or maybe not; under review. Backup TB Tyler Gaffney bursts around the right side and about 25 yards later dove for the pylon. Now they say he's out at the 1.

9:55 pm | Third quarter | by Pete McEntegart

Now it's a TD. Gerhart bulls in on second down. XP pulls Cardinal within 3 at 24-21. Twelve seconds left in third quarter as momentum swings again.

9:56 pm | Third quarter | by Stu Woo

For the first time tonight, both Stanford and Cal fans are boisterous. Add the bowl implications and the stadium lights -- this matchup has usually been played during the day -- and you get a college-football atmosphere that the San Francisco Bay area hasn't had for years.

9:58 pm | Third quarter | by Pete McEntegart

That TD makes the gentleman sitting next to me, a Stanford fan, feel much better. He says he's been a WSJ subscriber since 1966. He also recommends I start blogging by teletype. OK I made up the last part. We head to the fourth quarter. My thumbs are tired.

10:03 pm | Fourth quarter | by Pete McEntegart

A gunned out pattern throw from Riley and two Vereen runs move the Bears into Stanford territory. Cal offense really clicking. And now Riley finds TE Anthony Miller to get to the Stanford 12.

10:06 pm | Fourth quarter | by Pete McEntegart

TD, Cal! Riley finds Marvin Jones in the end zone for a 12-yard touchdown and a 31-21 lead with 13:14 left. What an answer by Cal. That's TDs on four straight drives going back to first half.

10:07 pm | Fourth quarter | by Stu Woo

The Cardinal are shifting to the comeback mindset, as footage of John Elway in his Stanford days air on the giant screens.

10:10 pm | Fourth quarter | by Pete McEntegart

Luck goes deep but misses receiver by 10 yards, easy. Then he goes deep on second down too and misses only by a few yards this time, but this ain't hand grenades. He's nearly picked on third down. Luck's only 6-for-20 by my count. Rough night for the frosh. Stanford punts and needs a stop.

10:12 pm | Fourth quarter | by Stu Woo

Despite getting great protection, Luck has been forcing passes to covered receivers, or overthrowing them. I'm not sure why Harbaugh has abandoned the run, especially with more than 12 minutes left. While Gerhart has been stuffed, he's proven he can come through in the clutch.

10:17 pm | Fourth quarter | by Pete McEntegart

Cal calls for QB sneak on third and inches. Will depend on measurement. Ooh, got it by a hair. So Bears keep ball and can run some clock if nothing else. We're under 10 minutes.

10:19 pm | Fourth quarter | by Pete McEntegart

Stanford gets better of Cal on the next third and one. Cardinal take over on own 13 with 8:46 left after fair catch. Then Luck finds Owusu twice in a row and Stanford's in business inside Cal 40.

10:20 pm | Fourth quarter | by Stu Woo

Luck finally hits an open receiver, as Harbaugh elects to continue exclusively air it out. With eight minutes left, that's the right call -- especially if he continues to have Luck throw on bootleg plays, where he can improvise better.

10:21 pm | Fourth quarter | by Pete McEntegart

Gerhart busts loose! Tripped up at 5.

10:22 pm | Fourth quarter | by Stu Woo

To clarify, Luck tonight has been a sort of a Vick/Vince Young type who has been a far better passer on the run. He's been spotty as a pocket passer.

10:24 pm | Fourth quarter | by Pete McEntegart

TD, Stanford. It's who else, Gerhart. That's his fourth. And just that quick, it's 31-28 Cal with 7:01 left. The Stanford fans here at Q's are back in full throat.

10:31 pm | Fourth quarter | by Pete McEntegart

Wow, Riley finds WR Verran Tucker tiptoeing the left sideline on third and long. Refs call it a catch, but they'll review it. The call ... stands! Cal ball on its own 44 as we go under six minutes.

10:31 pm | Fourth quarter | by Stu Woo

Tedford continues to call runs from the Wildcat, though they've been fairly unsuccessful today. But knowing him, he might pass from that formation, so Stanford defenders must beware.

10:32 pm | Fourth quarter | by Pete McEntegart

Another third and 10 for Cal. This time Riley goes deep for Tucker, who has a step on his man but the pass is just out of his reach. Stanford ball on own 21 with 4:18 left trailing by 3 after downed punt. Here we go.

10:33 pm | Fourth quarter | by Stu Woo

After the punt, Stanford could win on a final drive. In the past 30 years, three Big Games have been decided on the last play: The Play (1982), a Stanford win on a field goal in 1990 and a Stanford overtime win in 2000.

10:37 pm | Fourth quarter | by Pete McEntegart

Stanford goes for it on fourth and 8. Here comes the pass ... and it's not even close. Cal takes over inside Stanford's 25.

10:38 pm | Fourth quarter | by Stu Woo

Harbaugh goes Belichick! Well, not really, since Stanford trailed by three with less than four minutes left. But was that the smartest move with an erratic quarterback facing a fourth and 8? Stanford had all three timeouts left, and Cal stalled in its last drive. If Cal puts the game away here, expect tough questions for the coach at the press conference.

10:38 pm | Fourth quarter | by Stu Woo

Also -- a fourth and eight deep in their own territory.

10:39 pm | Fourth quarter | by Pete McEntegart

Vereen gains 10 yards before going down inbounds to keep clock rolling. Then he runs again and again. He's up to 42 carries. Cards are having to burn timeouts. 2:50 left.

10:42 pm | Fourth quarter | by Pete McEntegart

Bears content to settle for FG attempt as they play conservative on third down. And the 27-yarder is good. It's 34-28 with 2:46 left and Stanford's still in it.

10:43 pm | Fourth quarter | by Pete McEntegart

Stanford starts from own 42. And Luck scrambles for first down. Already across midfield.

10:45 pm | Fourth quarter | by Pete McEntegart

OMG! Gerhart catches pass in flat, then runs through seemingly entire Cal team until inside 15.

10:46 pm | Fourth quarter | by Stu Woo

Forget those post-game questions as Harbaugh's gamble pays off. And Gerhart is boosting his Heisman chances as he drags half of the Cal team with him on that big run. Too bad the East Coast viewers are missing this. Cal fans are shaking with nervousness -- or maybe just because it's so cold.

10:47 pm | Fourth quarter | by Pete McEntegart

Interception! Luck picked off inside 5. Looked like LB Mike Mohamed. Stanford has no timeouts, so that's it.

10:51 pm | Final | by Pete McEntegart

And that's your ballgame. Final score Cal 34, Stanford 28. A real thriller. My internet connection missed a heck of a game.

10:53 pm | Final | by Stu Woo

Forget it! The Cal cheering section goes off like a bomb after the interception, and the offense eggs them on as they line up in the victory formation.

Stanford fans head to the exits, and Cal fans rush the field after the chant: "We've got the Axe!"

Meanwhile, a row of security guards line up at midfield to prevent delirious Cal fans from pummeling the Stanford tree, as they are prone to do after the Big Game, win or lose.

The loss ends the Cardinal's Rose Bowl hopes. Coupled with a stunning Notre Dame loss to UConn today, the upcoming Stanford game with the Fighting Irish loses its luster.

11:04 pm | Postgame | by Stu Woo

Credit the victory to Shane Vereen who carried the ball 42 times for 193 yards and three touchdowns, and Kevin Riley, who was superb in the second half. Cal also got some help from Stanford's Luck -- who completed only 10 of 30 passes for 157 yards.

11:08 pm | Postgame | by Stu Woo

With that, Cal improves in the all-time Big Game series, which Stanford now leads 55-46-11. And with the win, Cal keeps the Axe. That means the score engraved on the Axe for the 1982 game will remain Cal, 25-20. (When Stanford wins, it changes the score to Stanford, 20-19, because it thinks The Play shouldn't have been ruled a touchdown.)

Cal fans are still celebrating on the field, while Stanford fans are nowhere in sight.

11:09 pm | Postgame | by Pete McEntegart

We opened the proceedings today talking about Stanford RB Toby Gerhart. And he certainly didn't disappoint with four TDs, but Cal's Shane Vereen proved there were at least two terrific runners on the field today. That's not even counting the injured Jahvid Best.

While Vereen fought Gerhart to a draw in a battle of heavyweight backs, Riley outplayed Luck at the QB position. In a rivalry game that came down to the final minutes -- don't they always? -- that edge proved the difference. Great game. Now I'm going to ice my Blackberry-wielding thumbs and toss my laptop in the Pacific.

Yet many fans, players and commentators continue to question the decision, which backfired when the fourth-down play fell short of the two yards needed and the Colts scored the game-winning touchdown. ESPN’s Bill Simmons is sticking with his postgame opinion that it was “the second dumbest thing I have ever seen any Boston team do.” Here are a few misconceptions about Puntgate:

Statistics can’t account for the specifics of the situation. Simmons suggests that Indy’s defense was particularly fired up, in front of its home crowd. At PatsPulpit, MaPatsFan makes the same point. But the specifics of this scenario cut both ways. New England’s high-powered offense was more equipped than most to get two yards on fourth down. And Indy’s high-powered offense was particularly well-equipped to mount a 70-yard drive compared to a 30-yard drive for the needed go-ahead touchdown. The simulations that suggested the punt was the worse call were based on the specific teams involved.

The statistics should have been superseded by considerations of respect. Somehow the decision was interpreted — by former Patriots linebacker Tedy Bruschi and others — as a sign that Belichick had no confidence in his defense. But there are three probabilities you have to figure in making such a decision: of making the first down, of the Colts scoring off a turnover on downs and of the Colts scoring after a punt. Belichick at least implicitly had to consider that the play might fail, and his decision suggested he thought his team had a shot at holding the Pats. Plus, the argument could easily be turned on its head: He was showing enormous confidence in his offense.

The stats fail to account for the decision to pass instead of running. It’s possible that the Pats had a better chance at getting a first down on the ground. But they’re generally more successful as a passing team. Also, even if a team is better at the run or pass, game theory dictates it shouldn’t always go with its better play; if it does, opposing teams won’t have to prepare for both possibilities and will stuff the obvious run or pass.

Still, the Pats could have helped themselves by disguising the play; instead they came out in an obvious pass formation. For that matter, if it was always a four-down possession, they could have run the ball instead of passing on third down, which could have set up fourth-and-short instead of fourth-and-shorter. And, for that matter, making the decision in advance could have saved the Pats from having to use a timeout before the play — a TO that would have been useful when the Pats got the ball back in the final seconds.

But those are all criticisms of decisions separate from the actual decision to go for it on fourth down. As these criticisms show, Belichick isn’t omniscient. But that doesn’t mean the punt was the right call.

I’m just a guy who’s right almost half the time and is unaccountably excited about the possible universe-endangering cosmic implications of this week’s Lions/Browns game. But Garey is a (notably understated football-picking) monster. After a poor start in the first two weeks, Garey has run up a 67-45-1 record since. Which means he has been right 59.3% of the time. I traditionally disclaim that no one should follow my advice in these picks or in anything else, but… maybe you should think about doing whatever Garey says. Like, in general, even though some of his picks this week look kind of crazy to me. I don’t know, it couldn’t hurt. He’s got the track record, and the better-looking pencil drawing.

Week 10 recap (overall): David Roth: 8-7 (71-72-1), Garey Ris: 10-5 (77-66-1), Al Toonie, the Lucky Canadian Two-Dollar Coin: 7-8 (65-78-1)

SUNDAY’S GAMES

Indianapolis (-1) at Baltimore: The Colts should hate playing in Baltimore, both because the Ravens have a very good, very nasty defense, and because Baltimore fans (justifiably) hate the Colts for slinking out of town a couple decades ago (of course, none of today’s Colts did the slinking, but that’s a minor detail). Charm City’s long memory and still-sharp grudges aside, though, this rivalry is fun because of Colts quarterback Peyton Manning and Ravens linebacker Ray Lewis, the two gesticulation-intensive geniuses facing each other across the line of scrimmage when Indy’s offense is on the field. The Colts are better, and this betting line doesn’t require much of them, but this could go either way and should be fun to watch, if only for all that strategic pantomime. — DR

Pick: David: Indianapolis, Garey: Baltimore, Al Toonie: Indianapolis

Washington at Dallas (-11): Washington looked pretty good in a win over the fading Broncos last week, but this is still a troubled, torpid team, and even with Dallas’s ace offensive line carved up by injuries, a win is probably a bridge too far against a very talented Cowboys team that looked to be getting things together before tanking against Green Bay in Week 10. It would be a lot more tempting to pick Washington as an underdog if they weren’t so injury-marred (and deadly dull) themselves. So my picks: Dallas to win and cover, and a nice walk outside while these two teams are playing. — DR

Pick: David: Dallas, Garey: Dallas, Al Toonie: Washington

Cleveland at Detroit (-3.5): I’ll admit it: I’m psyched for this one. I mean, obviously not for the football, which promises to be so appalling as to induce existential crises in everyone who views this game. But the nightmarish goofery on tap — the stunningly inept Browns offense against the ultra-flubby Lions defense is really only the beginning — promises to be almost avant-garde. If this game were a piece of performance art that had drawn NEA funding, Southern congressmen would be in the House exclaiming against it right now. I’m honestly not sure it isn’t a piece of performance art. But, yeah, I like the Lions in this one. — DR

Pick: David: Detroit, Garey: Detroit, Al Toonie: Detroit

San Francisco at Green Bay (-6.5): San Francisco seems to be one of those good-enough-to-beat-bad-teams teams, which is not exactly the worst of NFL fates. But it’s unclear what, exactly, Green Bay is. The Pack welcomes back some important players on offense and defense this week, but they’re both an explosive offensive team given to implosions and a talented defensive unit that periodically makes some very weird calls and mistakes. They’re better than the 49ers, but that’s pretty faint praise. That said, they have to be a lot happier with the quarterback they selected in the 2005 NFL Draft than the 49ers are. — DR

Pick: David: Green Bay, Garey: Green Bay, Al Toonie: San Francisco

Buffalo at Jacksonville (-9): With all due respect to the belief-system-challenging bummer that is this week’s Browns/Lions game, let’s give this blacked-out pairing of two lousy teams in a half-empty venue its drag-city due. Jacksonville is just good enough to beat worse teams — an attribute Buffalo had made near-heroic a couple years ago — and the Bills are inarguably that. Interim Buffalo coach Perry Fewell takes over, from fired coach Dick Jauron, a team with 11 players on injured reserve, 11 more on this week’s injury report, and an offense that has been called for 22 false starts in nine games. Beyond “will the Bills win another game this year?” the biggest remaining question is whether Buffalo will be able to persuade anyone to take the job from Fewell. — DR

Pick: David: Jacksonville, Garey: Jacksonville, Al Toonie: Buffalo

Pittsburgh (-10) at Kansas City: Pittsburgh is figuring things out, and played definitively Steelers-y football even in their Week 10 loss to the Bengals. Kansas City is not figuring things out so much as weeding things out — dumping uber-troubled running back Larry Johnson, taking snaps away from disgruntled linebacker Derrick Johnson — while playing definitively Chiefs-y football. That’s not a compliment. With top receiver Dwayne Bowe suspended and effectively being replaced by Lance Long — “a short white guy who can catch,” per teammate Chris Chambers — the Chiefs are as thoroughly outgunned as any NFL team this week. I’d take the Steelers at twice this line. — DR

Pick: David: Pittsburgh, Garey: Kansas City, Al Toonie: Kansas City

Seattle at Minnesota (-10.5): Seahawks quarterback Matt Hasselbeck was mentored by Brett Favre early in his career. Seattle wide receiver Nate Burleson washed out in Minnesota before catching on with the Seahawks. Vikings guard Steve Hutchinson became a star in Seattle before bolting to Minnesota. Imagine how emotional this would be if anyone could care about a Seahawks game! As it is, this looks like a brief stop on Minnesota’s increasingly impressive march to the playoffs. Considering that Minnesota papers spent this week worrying about other teams hiring away Vikings coordinators after the season, it’s clear that no one’s sweating this outcome very hard. — DR

Pick: David: Minnesota, Garey: Minnesota, Al Toonie: Seattle

Atlanta at New York Giants (-6.5): To say these teams aren’t firing on all cylinders is an understatement. The Falcons and the Giants are a collective 1-7 over their past eight games, negating strong starts. Atlanta’s Matt Ryan is struggling through a sophomore slump, throwing 10 picks and only seven TDs in his past five starts. Another disappointment for the Falcons is DE John Abraham, who has just 3.5 sacks so far this season after recording 16.5 a year ago. If the Giants are to revert to their early-season form, QB Eli Manning must play a big part. Interesting stat: The road team has won the past 12 meetings between these teams. — GR

Pick: David: Atlanta, Garey: Atlanta, Al Toonie: Atlanta

New Orleans (-11.5) at Tampa Bay: The Bucs had to ruin a pretty good thing by winning two weeks ago. Otherwise we’d be showcasing the undefeated Saints against the winless Bucs. The pressure increases each week a team remains perfect, and New Orleans sure survived a scare in last week’s narrow victory at St. Louis (I picked the Saints by at least 28, BTW). Tampa Bay is awful, but I’m not liking the double-digit line this week. That adage applies here: Once bitten, twice shy. — GR

Pick: David: New Orleans, Garey: Tampa Bay, Al Toonie: Tampa Bay

Arizona (-9.5) at St. Louis: Cards QB Kurt Warner returns to his former stomping grounds to face a team that won’t remind anyone of “The Greatest Show on Turf” teams of 1999, 2000 and 2001 that he piloted. Warner likely will dissect the 25th-ranked Rams secondary with ease, and extend the Cards’ streak over the Rams to six. But I’m not liking the points in this one, either. — GR

Pick: David: Arizona, Garey: St. Louis, Al Toonie: St. Louis

San Diego (off) at Denver: The Chargers, coming off an impressive home victory over Philadelphia, look to defeat an AFC West foe for the fifth straight time. Who knows what to expect from the Broncos, losers of three straight after starting 6-0? That sixth win came against the Chargers, thanks to WR/returner Eddie Royal’s two TDs. RB LaDainian Tomlinson wants a better outing than he had in the loss to Denver, when he rushed for only 70 yards and no TDs. QB Kyle Orton (left ankle) is questionable for the Broncos, who are 7-2 in their past nine at home against the Chargers. Since all bets are off on this one (literally), these predictions won’t count towards our respective records. No, we’re doing this one for the love. — GR

Pick: David: San Diego, Garey: San Diego, Al Toonie: San Diego

New York Jets at New England (-10.5): If you’re scoring at home, the Jets are 1-5 in their past six games. The numbers haven’t been favorable for QB Mark Sanchez, who has thrown 10 picks since starting 3-0. The bigger story this week, of course, is all the conservative-minded second-guessers who think Pats coach Bill Belichick blew it by gambling on fourth down deep in his own territory, and losing the game to Indianapolis. I like Belichick’s unconventional thinking. You can’t allow one call, in hindsight, to negate Belichick’s many accomplishments. One question: Was coach Rex Ryan’s tearful plea on Monday a rallying cry for the Jets? — GR

Pick: David: New England, Garey: Jets, Al Toonie: Jets

Cincinnati (-9.5) at Oakland: All the signs point to a Bengals victory. Cincy is 7-2 and aiming to go 5-0 on the road for the first time in team history. The Bengals have the AFC North lead thanks to last weekend’s big victory over Pittsburgh. Still, there’s a bit of doubt about a team new to winning ways after years of bungling. Cincy’s Cedric Benson doesn’t look likely to play, and neither does newly signed RB Larry Johnson, who probably can’t believe his luck going from 2-7 Kansas City to a playoff contender. The Bengals must avoid a letdown against a Raiders team that’s not good at very much (31st in scoring, 25th in scoring defense.) Oakland has alternated close games and blowouts at home this season (L 24-20, L 23-3, W 13-9, L 38-0, L16-10). Although the Raiders are due for a thrashing, I’ve got a hunch about this one. — GR

Pick: David: Cincinnati, Garey: Oakland, Al Toonie: Oakland

Philadelphia (-3) at Chicago: Bears QB Jay Cutler doesn’t seem ready for the bright lights of prime-time football. How else to explain his 11 picks in three nighttime starts — all losses — for Chicago? The Bears haven’t looked good in losing four of their past five (three were blowouts). Any flicker of hope for a playoff spot must start with a victory over an Eagles team that has lost consecutive games for the first time this season. But not everyone in Philadelphia wants to use injuries as an excuse. — GR

Pick: David: Philadelphia, Garey: Chicago, Al Toonie: Philadelphia

MONDAY’S GAME

Tennessee at Houston (-4.5): The Titans feel right at home in Houston, where they’re 5-2. With QB Vince Young at the helm, Chris Johnson has improved his running game, and the Titans have won three straight after starting 0-6. Texans QB Matt Schaub is worth a look in another ho-hum Monday night game. He’s gunning for his fourth consecutive game against an AFC South opponent with at least 300 passing yards. — GR

Pick: David: Houston, Garey: Tennessee, Al Toonie: Houston

“Some 15-win pitchers might not have been considered. But Lincecum surely was hoisted by his reputation and style,” the San Francisco Chronicle’s Henry Schulman writes. “Looking more like a surfer than a big-league pitcher, short in stature but big in arm speed and intensity, Lincecum has become one of the few must-see pitchers in baseball. That might have put him over the top in a season with no clear Cy Young favorite.”

While no one can doubt Lincecum’s brilliance on the mound, some in baseball wonder about his durability in years ahead, given that crazy motion and the fact that he’s a normal-sized human being. At CBS Sports, Danny Knobler does his best to deflate this particular concern. “Sure he throws hard, and he has a great breaking ball and a great changeup and you can’t pick up the ball and no one ever gets any hits off him, but is he going to hold up?” Knobler writes. “You’d think by now the only question we’d be asking about Lincecum is whether he’s headed for the Hall of Fame, because the things he has done in his first two full seasons with the Giants are the things Hall of Famers do.”

Sabermetric-minded writers and stat-heads disdain the win as a stat too grounded in context — that is, the team surrounding the pitcher — to be of much use, and cheered Lincecum’s selection much as they did that of 16-game-winner and AL Cy Young winner Zack Greinke earlier this week. The difference, this year, was that a few non-newspaper writers actually had Cy Young votes, and those voters may have actually swung things for Lincecum, Rob Neyer notes at ESPN. “There’s something to be said for Conventional Wisdom,” Neyer writes. “In this case, the Conventional Wisdom was unanimous: the three best pitchers in the league were Lincecum, [Cardinals starter Chris] Carpenter, and [Cardinals starter Adam] Wainwright. But in a field as traditionally conservative as award voting, isn’t it healthy to allow room for just a bit of unconventional wisdom, too?”

* * *

NASCAR’s Sprint Cup season wraps up this weekend in Miami, but the season effectively ended a long time ago — Jimmie Johnson has opened a huge 108-point lead on Mark Martin, who is the only driver on the circuit who can even hope to catch him. Johnson would have to finish 25th or worse for Martin to claim the title, and while stranger things have happened, it’s most likely that Martin will finish as the runner-up in points for the fifth time in his career and that Johnson will win his fourth straight Sprint Cup.

Of course, “most likely” doesn’t mean “inevitably,” as Racin Today’s Rich Minter writes. Elsewhere at Racin Today, Mike Harris reminds readers not to feel bad for Martin if he winds up a bridesmaid again. “If he doesn’t eventually win a championship or a Daytona 500, you can bet Martin won’t pout,” Harris writes. “He’ll simply go on to the next thing in his life, grateful that he got the chance to do for nearly three decades the thing he loves most except for his family — drive race cars.”

Martin, age 50 and widely respected, is something of a sentimental favorite, although Johnson’s steady dominance has its own appeal. Sports Illustrated’s Brant James conveys the shape of Johnson’s understated excellence in a nice profile of the dominant driver. “In-progress dynasties are hard to dissect, and Johnson’s dominance has been so numbing — boring, according to critics and fans of… well, everyone else — it provides few pegs on which to attach a theory,” James writes. “Certainly, he is at the nexus of talent, team and opportunity. But there is also the simple fact that he works incredibly hard and finds the joy in it.”

* * *

The Harvard-Yale football rivalry doesn’t traditionally feature many future NFL stars, and often doesn’t even feature terribly good football. But it’s certainly gotten safer in the past century. Sports Illustrated’s Frank Deford describes the 1909 clash — won by Yale 8-0 — as the beginning of football’s transition from a brutal blood sport into, um, a slightly-less-brutal blood sport.

“Although some of the game’s powers — not unlike the smug football aristocracy in the Bowl Championship Series today — were relatively content with the gory status quo, other colleges took a more progressive approach,” Deford writes. “Rules liberalizing the forward pass were instituted for the 1910 season, and soon it became the weapon that opened up a safer game.”

In the Boston Phoenix, Mike Miliard provides a nice look back at the famous 1968 clash between the two rivals — the famous “Harvard Beats Yale, 29-29″ game. Even if you already knew that said game featured a future NFL rookie of the year and a future Academy Award-winning actor in playing roles, as well as the inspiration for a Doonesbury character, it’s worth clicking that link.

Neither Harvard nor Yale are in college football’s BCS mix — or even BCS division — this year, but two fine features on upstart programs that have inserted themselves into national-title contention also deserve a look. In the Washington Post, Sally Jenkins argues that Texas Christian has been the most impressive team in the nation thus far this season. In the Journal, Darren Everson credits coach Jim Harbaugh with Stanford’s stunning surge in recent weeks.

* * *

Your Fixer isn’t sure he has the stomach for a full-on five-day cricket test match, but there’s something so arrestingly strange about the game to my American eyes that I can’t help but admire it. (Note: This may also have something to do with the fact that I just finished Joseph O’Neill’s insanely great cricket-related novel “Netherland”.) In the Journal, Jonathan Clegg writes that it’s not just your Fixer who has trouble fitting a five-day cricket test into the old day-planner, especially with Twenty20, a faster-paced condensed-cricket discussed in this Fix, gaining in popularity.

* * *

Zimbabwe was once one of the proudest nations in Africa, but the combination of some appallingly bad leadership and the other problems that tragically tend to affect African nations disproportionately has made it — as this sobering Jon Lee Anderson piece from The New Yorker makes clear — one of the most dysfunctional places in the world. And yet, as is true any place human beings live, it’s not all bad.

At CNN, Medecins Sans Frontieres communications officer Joanna Stavropoulou details her interactions with the Positive Ladies Soccer Club of Zimbabwe’s Epworth Township. The Positive Ladies are a team of HIV-positive women that became a crack soccer squad in defiance of a desperately poor community in which women don’t play soccer and, more to the point, HIV-positive people are stigmatized. It’s not the most literarily accomplished piece we’ve linked to at The Fix, but the story of The Positive Ladies is another reminder that humankind can also be pretty amazing, and it’s worth a read for that reason alone.

— Tip of the Fix cap to reader Don Hartline and fellow Fixer Garey Ris.

Found a good column from the world of sports? Don’t keep it to yourself — write to us at dailyfix@wsj.com and we’ll consider your find for inclusion in the Daily Fix. You can email David at droth11@gmail.com.

This is the norm for the Maple Leafs, who as of a couple of weeks ago had outshot opponents by 670 over the past five seasons and yet had been outscored by 103 goals. “If there was ever going to be a dynasty of outshooting your opponents but losing to them anyways, this would be it,” Gabriel Desjardins wrote on his blog. In a follow-up post inspired by Vic Ferrari, Desjardins found that Toronto last season was taking too many shots when in the lead, which was allowing teams to come from behind. One piece of evidence: The shots Toronto was allowing last year were particularly high-quality, Robert Vollman writes at Puck Prospectus. That nuance makes simple save percentages inadequate for evaluating goalies.

There’s another problem with shot counts: They don’t seem to be kept consistently from one arena to the next, according to Puck Prospectus’s Tom Awad. This doesn’t seem to have especially affected the Leafs, whose shot counts were pretty consistent at home and away over the last five seasons. But Nashville scorekeepers seem to be very quick to count shots, while Devils stats keepers are at the stingy end of the spectrum.

The Maple Leafs need to get better shots and give up fewer good ones, but they’re probably not as much of a long shot to reach the playoffs as the Toronto Star suggested this week, putting the probability at 1.7%. Desjardins writes that extreme performances are always likely to regress to the mean, and some of those shots have to start landing. Then again, the Star’s calculation came before Tuesday’s 3-2 loss to Ottawa — in which the Maple Leafs held the third-period shots advantage, 14-5, but lost the game.

Thanks to co-Fixer Garey Ris for the suggestion.

For many fans, Henry’s handball is reminiscent of Maradona’s “Hand of God” goal in Argentina’s victory over England in the 1986 World Cup. If FIFA, soccer’s governing body, was ambivalent about adding video review on goals, it shouldn’t be any longer. Referee Martin Hansson missed a huge, easy call when today’s technology could quickly have righted the wrong. Then again, soccer has had its share of infamous moments.

“It felt shocking that a country’s dream could perish so fraudulently,” Vincent Hogan fumes in the Irish Independent. “Short of tucking the ball up his jersey, Thierry Henry couldn’t have been more openly tactile in possession before flicking to William Gallas for the kill shot.”

In the Irish Times, retired star Mark Lawrenson says “the dust from this match will take a long time to settle.” Ireland’s government and football association are demanding a replay of the game.

Writing for the Times of London, former soccer player Tony Cascarino calls Henry “an insincere cheat.” Also in the Times, Patrick Barclay argues for video review.

The Irish Independent’s David Kelly sees a bright future for Ireland under coach Giovanni Trapattoni.

Yahoo’s Martin Rogers says that “All’s fair in love and soccer, yet if there is any justice France will suffer the same fate it did at the 2002 World Cup — elimination in the group stage.”

Wednesday was the final day of qualifying for South Africa, and the Journal’s Matthew Futterman says the results, which included Slovenia’s 1-0 upset of Russia, give hope to some of the world’s smaller nations.

Finally, BBC has thumbnails on the 32 qualifiers for World Cup 2010.

* * *

One of college football’s most storied rivalries — Michigan vs. Ohio State — resumes with Saturday’s clash in Columbus Ann Arbor. But the Buckeyes’ recent dominance of the Wolverines leaves Fox Sports’s Bruce Hooley pining for the days when their games always meant something.

For the first time in recent memory, the stakes for the Stanford-California grudge match are higher than those in the Buckeyes-Wolverines game. In the New York Times, Karen Crouse profiles Stanford running back Toby Gerhart, a Heisman Trophy candidate who’s also a strong baseball prospect.

* * *

Week 11 of the NFL season kicks off with a game Thursday night between two 4-5 teams, hardly a compelling matchup. Then again, neither are most games this weekend. Fellow Fixer David Roth previews the Dolphins vs. the Panthers:

Miami at Carolina (-3): These days that cliché about football being a rough game is looking less like a thing people say and more like something people should actually do something about. Sadly, whatever systemic changes are in the offing will arrive too late for the Dolphins, who recently placed star running back Ronnie Brown on the injured reserve and are short numerous other contributors on offense and defense. Both Carolina and Miami have been clicking fairly well on offense of late, and Miami has a brilliant backup in Ricky Williams, but Miami’s shorthandedness makes them tough to pick in this one. And in general.

Pick: David: Carolina, Garey: Carolina, Al Toonie, the Lucky Canadian Two-Dollar Coin: Miami

* * *

The Chicago Blackhawks were an afterthought for years in one of the NHL’s biggest markets. Season after season of missing the playoffs — and no Stanley Cup since 1961 — had led to fan and media indifference. All that’s changed in the two years John McDonough has been president. The Hawks have young, exciting stars in forwards Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews and defenseman Duncan Keith, all about to be signed to rich contract extensions, and are one of the NHL’s better teams. But McDonough won’t be satisfied until the Hawks win the Stanley Cup, the Chicago Tribune’s David Haugh writes.

* * *

A golf tournament without Phil Mickelson, Tiger Woods nor the winners of the four majors might not be on the radar with fans. Yet the Dubai World Championship this week has its merits, says one observer. For one thing, the Irish Independent’s Karl MacGinty writes, it gives some of Europe’s new young stars a chance to shine.

* * *

Basketball and football are the glamour sports at most Division I schools. But George Washington University is offering athletic-based aid in hopes of building a top-notch squash program, Jon Brand writes in the Washington Post.

* * *

Jilleanne Rookard has faced plenty of hurdles in her life: When she was 18, her father died of a heart attack. Her mother is battling multiple myeloma. Now the 26-year-old speedskater is on the verge of qualifying for the 2010 Winter Olympics in Vancouver. Pretty impressive for someone who took up speedskating only three years ago and has worked 20-hour weeks to raise money for training, Gary D’Amato writes in the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel.

– Tip of the Fix cap to reader Don Hartline.

Found a good column from the world of sports? Don’t keep it to yourself — write to us at dailyfix@wsj.com and we’ll consider your find for inclusion in the Daily Fix. You can email Garey at ris84rap@gmail.com.

Jennings also turned in just the 29th performance in the last 10 seasons to feature 50 or more points and a field-goal percentage of 60 or higher, according to Basketball Reference. The other players on the list include Kobe Bryant (six times), LeBron James (twice), Tracy McGrady (twice), Dwyane Wade, Tim Duncan and Dirk Nowitzki, which would also be a reasonable starting point for the top players over the last decade. Some other players to achieve the feat aren’t as immortal (e.g. Jamal Crawford and Tony Delk). Still, Jennings is keeping good company.

His next game, though, wasn’t quite as good. He shot just 8 for 22, and scored just 25 points. How does that compare to the 28 games that followed the prior 28 efficient 50-point scoring nights? I crunched the numbers, which demonstrate that a hot hand in basketball doesn’t seem to carry over from one game to the next.

Jennings and his counterparts played their next game much like they did the rest of the season, excluding those two games. The day after their 50-point games, the typical player scored 27 points, shot 43% from the field, hit 30% of three-point attempts and 80% of free throws. And over the rest of the regular season, that same typical player averaged 25 points while shooting 46% from the field, 34% from three-point range and 80% from the free-throw line. This reflects a natural tendency for players to regress to their mean performance.

Some follow-up performances stand out. Wade had a big drop-off, to 19 points on 8-of-21 shooting, but that came in the playoffs, as he erupted for 55 points in last season’s finale. A year ago, Tony Parker scored just four points before leaving because of injury. He missed three weeks. Besides Parker, Delk had the biggest drop-off in points, scoring just 10 in his next game while seeing a drop-off in field-goal percentage from 74% to 40%.

On the flip side, Amare Stoudemire managed to improve from 74% shooting to 79% in his next game, in which he scored 34 points. And Antawn Jamison improved his field-goal shooting by nine percentage points, while matching his point total — he was the only player on the list to collect back-to-back games with 50 points on 60% shooting or better. (In his next game, Jamison shot 10 of 23 and scored 28 points.)

Creating this list of players was made possible by Basketball Reference’s play index, a fun tool that allows users to search for every game since 1986-87 that meets certain criteria — for instance, 50 or more points and a shooting percentage of 60 or higher. Inspired by Matt Barnes’s 13 points and 13 rebounds last Friday, November 13th, and with the help of the site’s creator, Justin Kubatko, I found 316 performances featuring exactly 13 points and 13 rebounds (or 13 points and 13 assists, or 13 rebounds and 13 assists). (That compares to 513 12-12 performances and 248 14-14, so it’s not a surprising number. Incidentally, Jason Kidd had seven of the 29 games in which rebounds and assists were equal and each totaled 12, 13 or 14.)

Exactly 13 of these — spooky! — fell on the 13th of a month, which isn’t a great surprise. If every day of the month were equally likely, we’d expect about 10 or 11 of these to fall on the 13th, but since the season generally ends soon after April 13, more games are played on the 13th than on, say, the 22nd during the season. The 13th falls on a Friday about one-seventh of the time, so about two of these 13 performances should have fallen on Friday the 13th. But four have — Barnes’s, Andre Miller in March, Marc Jackson in 2007 and Anthony Mason in 1996. Are NBA players working harder to get to 13, and then stopping, on Friday the 13th? Probably not. More likely, this search got off the ground in the first place because one of these anomalous events happened. Discarding that one, there have been three, and that’s not much more than two. Probably better to chalk this up to chance than to triskaidekaphobia or triskaidekaphilia.

The Baseball Reference bloggers have been using that site’s even more sophisticated event finder tool. It can look for games since 1954 that meet the criteria of a certain equation or inequality — for instance, games in which a team scored more runs than it had hits. Among the recent findings are the two games in which a team’s lineup featured only players who were 33 or older, and the highest batting average by a team in a single game (.609).