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The sun has broken thru at the lakeshore here in Muskegon. The satellite loop shows a variable cloud pattern with more clouds south of a line from Holland to north of Jackson. The clouds should continue to erode this PM and tonight. The few rainshowers have moved well east of our area and we’ll stay dry thru mid-afternoon tomorrow. We’ll see increasing clouds tomorrow with rain developing from south to north across the area tomorrow late afternoon into the evening. The 3 pm temp. is 50 in G.R. and we should top out around 55 toward the dinner hour. Muskegon is 51 (northeast wind, so no lake-breeze cooling), 52 in Holland and Kalamazoo.
If you look in the distance in this pic. you can see the Lake Express Ferry arriving from Milwaukee this morning, the first official run of the season. More later this evening j- working on the forecast now. GFS has 1/3rd inch of rain for G.R. from dinner hour Saturday thru early morning Sunday. The European also has around 1/3rd inch of rain starting late Sat. PM into Sunday…and a few light showers on Weds. of next week.
Here’s a look at some season totals from Northern Michigan. Gaylord and S. Ste. Marie were a little on the low side. Traverse City and West Branch had almost exactly average snowfall. Petoskey and Alpena were a little above average for snowfall past winter. This winter we had less lake-effect snow, so totals near the lake were below average, while quite a few totals in the eastern part of Lower Michigan were above average. Here’s season snowfall with difference from average in ( ): Grand Rapids 61.1″ (-13.8″), Muskegon 61.8″ (-31.9″), Lansing 50.0″ (-1.1″), Saginaw 50.2″ (+8.7″), Flint 69.0″ (+21.6″). The last time I checked, Alyeska AK had a season snowfall total of 824″ and they still had 192″ on the ground.
This is snowcover in the Lower 48 states Thursday morning. 13.2% of the Lower 48 states had a snowcover. That is the highest for any April 28th going back 13 years (as far as the record goes). They are getting more snow in the Rockies. Denver is expecting 3-6″ of snowfall from now thru the weekend. Winter Storm Warnings are out for the higher mountains where up to 20″ of snow is expected. Warnings and Advisories extend up into Wyoming.
This map shows snowcover (in white) and ice covered areas in yellow. You can see the snow in the Rockies and a solid snowpack across Northern Canada down into much of Quebec. When we get a sustained wind from the northeast off that snowcover and down across the cold waters of Lake Huron, the air won’t have much time to warm up. The surface map shows the general east-northeast flow across Lower Michigan. There is still ice on most Canadian Lakes. Hudson Bay is often frozen over until mid-late June and in a few years, some floating bergs have remained until the first week of September. Water temperatures near Churchill on the west side of the bay peak at around 47 degrees in early September.
Check the threads below for details on rain and wind in the driest place in N. America and below that thread – an update on our Friday weather.
Strong winds and brief moderate rain hit Death Valley, California (the warmest, driest and lowest place in North America). Three historic structures were damaged. The park said they recorded winds of 42 mph. However, the wind would have been stronger where the damage occurred. All three structures were built in the 1930s by the Civilian Conservation Corps, a Great Depression-era work program. Wind blew the entire roof off an adobe-wall building in Cow Creek maintenance yard (p;ictured above). Also in Cow Creek Historic District, wind damaged the roof of the original superintendent’s garage. Emigrant Ranger Station, located 8 miles west of Stovepipe Wells on CA-190, had significant roof damage.
Rainfall totaled 0.28″, which doesn’t seem like much, but the average yearly rainfall at the Greenland Ranch is only 1.58″/year. Death Valley had the hottest temp. in world history with a 134-degree reading on July 10, 1913. Average high temperatures range from 65 in December to 117 in July. The average low temp. in July is 88. The highest overnight low temperature recorded in Death Valley is 110 °F (43 °C), recorded on July 5, 1918 and the current world-record for hottest overnight minimum tgemperature. At the Greenland Ranch, they average 194.4 days a year when the temp. gets to 90 degrees or warmer. Measurable snow was recorded only once, in January 1922. Badwater Basin is the lowest place in North America, 282 feet below sea level. Just 84.6 miles to the west is Mt. Whitney, the tallest mountain in the contiguous U.S. at 14,505 feet above sea level.
The map above shows the climatological severe weather probabilities for April 29 for the U.S. You can see at this time of year, severe weather is most likely in the Southern Plains, from Kansas down to N. Texas. The Convective Outlooks from the Storm Prediction Center show the highest probability of severe weather the next couple days will be in the Southern Plains. Here’s the 150 Severe Storm Reports from Wednesday in the U.S. It was an active day with 20 tornadoes. Most of the tornadoes were small and short-lived. They occurred in six states, including a small touchdown in Waterford, California that did some minor damage to an elementary school. Severe reports for Thursday included 127 reports of hail up to tennis ball size and wind damage, plus one EF-1 tornado nolrth of Indianapolis. Two homes and a barn were damaged. Chopper 8 flew over the damage.
Magnitude 7.0 earthquake in Vanuatu. No tsunami.
Friday AM update: Local and regional radar here will automatically update, showing where the lingering light showers/sprinkles are located. Rainfall Thursday totaled 0.50″ in G.R., 0.49″ at Muskegon, 0.31″ in Lansing, 0.30″ in Holland, 0.23″ at Battle Creek but just 0.01″ at the Kalamazoo Airport. Grand Rapids is up to 3.49″ for April and we are now 4.00″ above average since Jan. 1. April will be the first month since last August with below average temperatures.
Model Update: The NAM and GFS both give G.R. a high of 54 today (Fri.) with highs in the low 60s Sat. and Sun. The NAM has a 36% chc. of measurable rain for G.R. today and the GFS is 49% (mostly in the AM). The GFS has highs starting Monday of 63, 71, 59, 57, 64 with the greatest chance of rain on Weds. Looks like severe weather is unlikely in Michigan with a below average number of severe reports in the U.S. this coming week.
Thursday was the first day that none of the weather reporting stations in the U.P are reporting more than a trace of snow on the ground. I’m sure there is still some snow in the woods on the north slopes in the Keewenaw Peninsula…but even that should be gone soon. Check out the links below:
Links: Here’s Grand Rapids radar and Northern Michigan radar, Milwaukee looping radar. Regional radar and the Updated GRR NWS Short Term Discussion. More links: Northern Indiana radar, Chicago radar, Detroit radar and Milwaukee radar.Here’s College of DuPage Radar Map (pick any radar in the U.S.), College of DuPage Grand Rapids radar, the West Michigan Lightning Tracker, National Lightning Tracker, the local warning/advisory map and the National warning/watch/advisory map, a surface weather map. You can checkout the latest Grand Rapids NWS discussion, the Northern Indiana NWS discussion (includes the Michigan Counties that border Indiana), the discussion for Northern Lower Michigan, and Eastern Lower Michigan. Here’s the Spyglass Condos Weather Station the S. Haven GLERL station, the Muskegon GLERL station, the Grand Haven Steelheaders webcam and weather station, and the weather station at Holland State Park. Check out the links to webcams. Here’s theinfrared satellite loop (night) and the visible satellite loop (daytime), Lake Michigan water temperatures (summer). Here’s recent storm reports from SW Michigan, Northern Michigan, NE Illinois, SE. Wisconsin, Upper Michigan and E. Michigan. Check out the wind and wave height at the South Mid-Lake Michigan Buoy (Apr. to Nov. only), the North Mid-Lake Michigan Buoy (Apr. to Nov. only), the buoy at Big Sable Point near Ludington and the weather station on the beach at St. Joseph.
Also: Pollen levels. Magnitude 5.0 Earthquake on the west coast of France and a 4.4 magnitude earthquake near Vienna, Austria. No fatalities or significant damage has been reported as I write this. The last time France was hit by a deadly earthquake was more than a century ago in 1909, when the town of Lambesc near Marseille was struck by a magnitude-6 tremor, which killed 46 people and injured 250. Snow in Scotland.
This picture shows the remains of an SUV that was thrown half a mile into the top of the water tower seen in the background, before bouncing off, traveling another 1/4 mile though the air, impacting the ground and eventually coming to rest in the parking lot of the E.E. Pickle funeral home on the opposite side of town in the EF5 tornado that hit Smithville MS five years ago today. From Wikipedia:
The 2011 Super Outbreak was the largest, costliest, and one of the deadliest tornado outbreaks ever recorded, affecting the Southern, Midwestern, and Northeastern United States and leaving catastrophic destruction in its wake. The event affected Alabama and Mississippi the most severely, but it also produced destructive tornadoes in Arkansas, Georgia, Tennessee and Virginia, and affected many other areas throughout the Southern and Eastern United States. In total, 363 tornadoes were confirmed by NOAA‘s National Weather Service (NWS) and Government of Canada‘s Environment Canada in 21 states from Texas to New York to southern Canada. Widespread and destructive tornadoes occurred on each day of the outbreak, with April 27 being the most active day with a record of 219 tornadoes touching down that day from midnight to midnightCDT (0500 – 0500 UTC). Four of the tornadoes were destructive enough to be rated EF5, which is the highest ranking possible on the Enhanced Fujita scale; typically these tornadoes are only recorded about once each year or less.
This map shows where a tornado occurred (red dot), where severe wind gusts occurred (blue dot) and where severe hail was reported (green dot). In total, 348 people were killed as a result of the outbreak, which includes 324 tornado-related deaths across six states and an additional 24 fatalities caused by other thunderstorm-related events such as straight-line winds, hail, flash flooding or lightning. In Alabama alone, 238 tornado-related deaths were confirmed by the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) and the state’s Emergency Management Agency.
April 27’s 317 fatalities were the most tornado-related fatalities in the United States in a single day since the “Tri-State” outbreak on March 18, 1925 (when at least 747 people were killed). Nearly 500 preliminary local storm reports were received for tornadoes over four days, including 292 in 16 states on April 27 alone. This event was the costliest tornado outbreak and one of the costliest natural disasters in United States history (even after adjustments for inflation), with total damages of approximately $11 billion (2011 USD).
This is the Severe Weather Risk map from the Storm Prediction Center for Weds. PM/Night. The General (not severe) Thunderstorm Risk includes areas south of a line from Holland to Battle Creek to the SE corner of the state.
Here’s severe weather reports from Tuesday…it was a big severe weather day with nearly 400 severe reports from West Virginia west to S. Nebraska and south to Texas. At least 4 tornadoes have been reported. Winds of 91 mph hit the Will Rogers Airport in Oklahoma City with hail up to 4″ in diameter in Kansas. Winds hit 75 mph south of Ottawa KS. Awesome satellite loop shows storms developing in the Plains Tues. PM.
Also: Hard Freeze for the U.P. tonight. Radar time-lapse of Monday evening’s storms. Great pic. of the storm Monday evening coming into Grand Haven. Delta flight from Detroit to G.R. did a loop in N. Indiana to avoid t-storms in W. Michigan before landing.
These are blossoms in Shanes Park in Rockford, Ohio – (which has a facebook page). We stopped here for about 90 minutes this afternoon. We had stopped to pick up a sandwich at a local Arby’s and we ate at a picnic table at the park. The park had 4 baseball diamonds and they are raising money for a fifth. There was a children’s playground (with a see-saw) and several families came and went with their toddlers. After school, girl’s and boy’s baseball teams came to practice. The grass was a rich, deep green with a smattering of yellow dandelions and blue-purple violets. I did my 1/2 walk to an adjacent cemetery, where some graves went back over 100 years. I’m always sobered by the number of children who passed away at such a young age years ago. I saw one family, where 3 children died at ages 6, 12 and 21. Another with children who passed away at ages 1, 2, and 26. In the park, there were plaques
The temperature drop was amazing as we drove north. We had 79 on the car thermometer as we pulled into the park with partly cloudy skies. By the time we went 20 miles to the Fort Wayne bypass it was down to 73. We left the bypass to turn north on I-69 and it was 67…as we headed north, we drove into low overcast…by the time we reached the Michigan border, it was down to 52 and when we got to the Charlotte exit on I-69, my car thermometer read 42. Monday temps. were in the low-mid 80s in Tennessee up into southern Ohio. We stayed in Piqua Monday night. Our motel room was about 50 yards from a railroad track and trains came through about once an hour during the night. We stopped at a Dollar General and Gayle got a few jigsaw puzzles and a couple of things from the 50% off bin. Gayle read 2 1/2 books on our trip. We stopped to get a smoothie at a little stand in Willshire OH on the border…very inexpensive…hot dogs were $1, small cones just 60 cents. The cats were meeting us at the door. I got out before sunset to set the leaf bags out for pick-up and fill the bird feeders.
I always follow weather – but a little less weather time when I’m on vacation. I did see the latest 8-14 day outlook – basically cooler than average in the South and warmer than average in the north. My first thought is that this would minimize the temperature difference north to south and might (not a sure thing) lead to a period of below average numbers of severe t-storms and tornadoes. I’ve been on record predicting warmer than average temps. for May and overall warmer than average temps. for the summer in the Great Lakes. I think the greatest weather threat will be wind damage from t-storms moving from west to east or northwest to southeast. During the last two years that we had a rapidly diminishing strong El-Nino, we had significant derechos in the Great Lakes States. Here’s more on the derechos in 1983 and 1998. The 1998 derecho was the overall worst line of t-storms ever to hit West Michigan. There were several other notable derechos in 1998. In 1983 December was a very cold month after a very warm Dec. 1982 – last year we had a record warm Dec. – so it’ll be interesting to see the contrast with this coming December.
This should be a big severe weather/tornado day in the Plains States from Nebraska south to Texas. SPC says: “EXPLOSIVE UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT WILL STRONGLY FAVOR LARGE HAIL —LIKELY GIANT HAIL EXCEEDING 3-4 INCHES IN DIAMETER— WITH THE MORE DOMINANT/DISCRETE SUPERCELLS…STRENGTHENING OF LOW-LEVEL SHEAR DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WOULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR STRONG TORNADOES.” Already tennis-ball sized hail in Kansas this AM. This is another travel day for me, but you can follow this afternoon’s severe weather with these links: Current Severe Weather Watches, Meso-discussions, the latest Convective Outlooks and Storm Reports. Here’s Central Plains radar and Southern Plains radar. Storm discussion from the Tulsa and Norman OK NWS. Tornado count only 68% of average to date in U.S. – that will jump up today and tomorrow and again over the weekend. U.S. tornado count may be lower than average in May due to less temperature contrast north to south (warmer in the Great Lakes in May and this summer). Dense Fog Advisory until 11 am. Cloudy and cool much of the day with temps. upper 40s to low 50s. It’s snowing at Oscoda and up on Mackinac Is. this AM. There will be frost and a freeze over much of N. Lower Michigan tonight. Estimated rainfall from last night. 0,65″ for G.R. brings us to 2.99″ for the month and 12.86″ since Jan. 1 (3.85″ above average). 1.05″ yesterday in Kalamazoo.
Here’s some hail swept up into a pile in Standale (pic. form Cassie Lin). We had lots of hail reports from yesterday evening’s storms, but not much wind damage. As of 6:25 am (I know, what am I doing up now – mainly awaiting the free breakfast at the motel here), Consumers Energy reports only 1,417 customers without power…the majority of those in Branch Co. (1,139). 12,500 without power in N. Ohio. As I write this, the cool front has slipped down to I-94 and will continue south into N. Indiana and Ohio. Storms today will be south of the front. Here’s a surface weather map and current conditions. BTW, the motel we are staying at is about 50 yards from a train track…trains have been passing by about every hour and you can feel the building vibrate when one does…I killed an enormous beetle in the room and the window is filthy. The wifi I get thru my I-phone is 10 times faster than the motel wifi. We ate at the Cracker Barrel next door. My fish was a little too spicy for my taste, but not bad. My wife’s chicken salad was gigantic and good. Waitress never came back to refill my decaf…overall, though about a B+.
Golfball-sized hail from near Fennville last night (from Jacob Morse). Also: Unseasonably cold over much of Europe right now…it’s winter in the Czech Republic. Snow in Scotland. Beautiful snow in the U.K. this morning. Snow in Croatia. Nice overshooting top on this storm. Chance of t-storms today in the 5 eastern states with primary elections t oday. Major damage from Cyclone Fantala. Wow! Look at the wintry conditions in Europe this AM. Snow on the tulips in the Netherlands. Snowing this AM at Oscoda and Rogers City MI. Texas is doing well. Reed Timmer was in hot pursuit yesterday. He’ll be out again today. Wildfire threatening homes in CA. T-storm over S. Lower Michigan from a plane yesterday evening. Loopy lightning!
Times like this I really miss the blog comments. I was driving back from Tennessee (currently at a motel in Piqua, Ohio) and wassn’t paying attention to the weather. Pic. above is from Lisa Lothschutz Serna near Allendale. Lots of significant hail reports..inc. golfball-sized hail at Shelbyville and Fennville, 1 1/4″ hail at Lamont, 1″ diameter hail at Allendale, Hopkins, Coloma, Alpine Twp, Comstock Park, Lake Michigan Beach in Berrien Co. and Spring Lake, 7/8″ diameter hail at Allegan, 3/4″ hail at Watervliet, Marcellus, Roosevelt Park and Belmont, 1/2″ hail at Vicksburg, Stony Lake, St. Johns, Saranac and Muskegon, 1/4″ hail at E. Martin, Sullivan, Lowell, Cascade, Fruitport and Lyons. 5″ diameter tree limbs down plus hail at Port Sheldon and some minor wind damage in Branch Co.. Gusts to 55 mph at Osseo in Hillsdale Co. and 47 mph at Coldwater. NWS 10:55 pm graphic update. Amazing surface convergence: At 10 pm the wind in Kalamazoo was south at 18 mph – gusts to 29 mph. The wind in G.R. was north at 13 mph. The wind at Holland was west at 16 mph gusting to 29 mph and the wind at Ionia was northeast at 13 gusting to 25 mph. All that air was coming together and then forced to rise…pushing warm, moist air upward into the thunderstorms. 2.25″ rain at Paw Paw and still coming as I write this.
Also: Some Oklahoma Schools are closing for Tuesday in advance of a significant severe weather day. Hundreds/thousands of people simply leave town and drive away to a place outside the risk area and just spend the day in a motel. Here’s Monday’s Severe T-storm Reports…basically, hail around S. Lake Michigan and big hail with a supercell in Texas. Here’s questions answered about the severe weather outbreak anticipated Tues. PM. Lightning goes loop-d-loop.
Links: Here’s Grand Rapids radar and Northern Michigan radar, Milwaukee looping radar. Regional radar and the Updated GRR NWS Short Term Discussion. More links: Northern Indiana radar, Chicago radar, Detroit radar and Milwaukee radar.Here’s College of DuPage Radar Map (pick any radar in the U.S.), College of DuPage Grand Rapids radar, the West Michigan Lightning Tracker, National Lightning Tracker, the local warning/advisory map and the National warning/watch/advisory map, a surface weather map. You can checkout the latest Grand Rapids NWS discussion, the Northern Indiana NWS discussion (includes the Michigan Counties that border Indiana), the discussion for Northern Lower Michigan, and Eastern Lower Michigan. Here’s the Spyglass Condos Weather Station the S. Haven GLERL station, the Muskegon GLERL station, the Grand Haven Steelheaders webcam and weather station, and the weather station at Holland State Park. Check out the links to webcams. Here’s theinfrared satellite loop (night) and the visible satellite loop (daytime), Lake Michigan water temperatures (summer). Here’s recent storm reports from SW Michigan, Northern Michigan, NE Illinois, SE. Wisconsin, Upper Michigan and E. Michigan. Check out the wind and wave height at the South Mid-Lake Michigan Buoy (Apr. to Nov. only), the North Mid-Lake Michigan Buoy (Apr. to Nov. only), the buoy at Big Sable Point near Ludington and the weather station on the beach at St. Joseph
This graph shows long-track tornadoes by month in the U.S. Here in Michigan, we peak in April, May and (mainly early) June. The worst tornadoes in West Michigan (Hudsonville/Standale, Palm Sunday, Kalamazoo) have occurred from early April thru the first half of May…Flint/Beecher was 2nd week of June. We’re still anticipating a significant tornado/hail day tomorrow PM in the Plains.
Quite a temperature spread across Lower Michigan…at noon it was 73 in Battle Creek and Marshall – 55 in Big Rapids and 34 at Rogers City with snow and a 20 mph east wind. The morning run of the NAM model gives G.R. highs in the low 70s this PM – 54 tomorrow and 57 on Weds. with a +70% chance of measurable rain this evening.
Bill writing from Oak Ridge Tennessee: Sunday after church, we had a delightful brunch on the screened porch. After that, we headed to Frozen Head State Park – past large tree-covered hills, small churches and narrow crossroads that made you wonder what was at the end of them (many roads end at the base of the bigger hills/mountains. Frozen Head St. Park is a large park. It has several waterfalls and my sister and I climbed up to two of them. It was at least 3 miles. There were many people enjoying the park, including a lot of kids – the majority of them playing in the creek that winds through the park. Lots of people were walking with their dogs. After we drove home, we were back on the screened porch for dinner. Today (Mon.) we start for home.
These are the Severe Weather Outlook Areas from the Storm Prediction Center. Southern Michigan is in a Marginal Outlook for today (first graphic). For today, SPC says: “STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP LATER TODAY WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW REGIME FROM SRN WI THROUGH NRN IL. A 50 KT MID-LEVEL JET LOCATED WITHIN BASE OF DEAMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN 35-45 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR…SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS THROUGH EARLY EVENING…BEFORE ACTIVITY BEGINS TO WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET.” Tuesday could be a bigger severe weather day in the Plains States, where SPC has upgraded an area from S. Nebraska down into Oklahoma into a Moderate Risk Area. About Tuesday PM, SPC says: “STRONG /POTENTIALLY LONG-TRACK/ TORNADOES…VERY LARGE /PERHAPS GIANT/ HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR.”
Also: Some snow left in the U.P. Tennis-ball sized hail at New Cambria KS. Large hail smashed car windshields on I-70. Pic. of baseball-sized hail. Tornado at Guide Rock NE. Ka-Boom! Extensive damage from Cyclone Fantala. Landspout in Denmark. More rain for California.
Wish you were here. It’s the most beautiful day here in Oak Ridge TN. There is not a single cloud…not even a streak of cirrus on the horizon. The sky is the brightest blue. Right now there is a cardinal right outside our porch singing away. The bluebirds are coming and going from the bird house. The wind is calm, the temperature is 68 here. The leaves and many of the flowers are out, including the roses here. 1 pm – Just finished brunch on the screened porch. There were 5 goldfinches that were hopping around in the grass outside.
Here’s another view of the roses. We’re having brunch in a few minutes as I write this, then off to do some hiking and have a picnic at Frozen Head St. Park. You can hike to a couple of waterfalls there. Here in Oak Ridge, the sun climbs to an altitude of 67.2 deg. at solar noon. That’s as high as the sun is on July 21 in Grand Rapids.
Check out the severe weather outlooks from the Storm Prediction Center. We have Enhanced Risk Areas in the Plains for this PM and for Tuesday PM (which may get upgraded to a moderate risk) and a Marginal Risk for S. Michigan tomorrow. SPC says: “AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED CELLS CAPABLE OF HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. AN UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA IN FUTURE OUTLOOKS.”
We’ve had a delightful Saturday. We (my wife, mother, sister and brother-in-law) went to Knoxville for the Rossini Festival (year, heard the William Tell Overature 3 times)…and the Barber of Seville just once. This is like Festival of the Arts in Grand Rapids, with the downtown streets blocked off and they have five outdoor stages of continuous music…all free. One stage is just opera, one choral, one big-time instrumental (big band – symphony, U.T. choir), one stage just for jazz and one for dance. All of the venues were packed. One difference is that the G.R. festival has roughly 34 food booths. The Rossini festival has 335 booths…food booths and crafts artisans. It’s a great place to watch people and watch dogs (lots of people with dogs…everyone of them well-behaved…the dogs, I mean…well, the people were behaving, too. The University of Arkansas came to put on their Pirates of Penzance. The weather is perfect here. Right now, the temp. here is 73 with the humidity at just 38%. We have scattered cumulus clouds in a rich, blue sky. When we went over the Clinch River, we saw kayaks, fisherman and motorboats out enjoying the day. (pic. above is from the Rossini Festival thru WATE – our “sister” Media General Knoxville TV station. WATE was the media sponsor of the Festival and they were everywhere – on-air talent introducing the acts, I talked to their reporter doing a story on the day – satellite truck parked next to the main stage. There were 23 business sponsors…most local, but a few national.
Officially as of 5 pm the high/low for G.R. has been 61/38. It was much cooler at Lake Michigan. The daytime high temp. at the Muskegon Beach was 48.0 at 10 am – at the S. Haven beach, the high as of 6 pm was 49.8 at 11 am.
We’re expecting a major severe weather (inc. tornadoes) outbreak early next week in the Southern Plains. The Oklahoma City NWS writes this about Tues: “…POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TO GIANT HAIL. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES SUGGEST THE TORNADO RISK MAY INCREASE AS THE STORMS PROGRESS EASTWARD”. The Wichita KS NWS writes this: “CONSENSUS SUGGESTS HIGHER-END SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IS POSSIBLE ACROSS KS/OK TUESDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING…INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG-VIOLENT TORNADOES.” Here’s the SPC severe weather outlooks. Understanding severe risk categories. Only two severe reports in the U.S. for Saturday as of 10 pm.
Holland State Park from the air today. Big cold snap for Europe. Death toll from earthquake in Equador now 654. Another 58 are still mission. 113 have been rescued from the rubble. This is the most fatalities from an earthquake in S. America since 1999. Dry microburst. Nice lenticular cloud.
This is the MODIS Lake Superior satellite picture from Friday PM. Note the hand-shaped area of clouds near Marquette. You can still see several areas of snow cover in the Keweenaw Peninsula. Painesdale, south of Houghton reported 3″ of snow on the ground Friday AM. Looks like the inland lakes at the tip of the peninsula are still ice covered (Lake Gratiot, Lac La Bella and Lake Medora). While Mt. Bohemia closed 4/13, I bet they still have some snow. Once you get into Canada, most of the lakes are still frozen and there is still snow on the ground. Check out the Snowman Cam at Krupp’s Resort in the U.P. Here’s a link to the Lake Michigan pic. The ground is slightly more green and less brown now as the grass is greening a bit. Dry Saturday ETA and GFS have low 60s today (Sat.) in G.R. – upper 60s Sunday (should be 70s south of the front), rain on Monday.
Grand Rapids has now had 8 days in a row warmer than average, after not having a single day warmer than average in the first two weeks of April We are still -1.8 deg. for the month. The wet pattern we have had so far in 2016 will continue into early May. I do think the pattern will flip to drier for a good portion of the summer along with warmer than average weather. I’m still thinking this summer could be 4-5 degrees warmer than last summer – which is a significant jump for the summer season.
This is the 8-14 day precipitation outlook from the Climate Prediction Center for April 30 to May 6. Look at all that green (which means a good chance of above average precipitation). It certainly looks like wet start to May. The 8-14 day temperature outlook predicts near normal temps. for the Great Lakes. The 7-day precipitation outlook from the Weather Prediction Center also shows a lot of rain for much of the U.S. with some heavier rain Sunday across Northern Michigan. There should be a fair amount of severe weather (most of it southwest of us) in the Southern and Central Plains. Keep an eye on the Severe Weather Outlooks from the Storm Prediction Center. There should be a significant severe/weather day centered on Oklahoma next Tues. and east of there – at least as far east as Illinois on Weds. Once again there were no tornadoes reported in the U.S. on Friday – and only 17 severe weather reports (greatest concentration near me here in E. Tennessee. Hail knocked leaves off the trees in Sevierville TN. Mean jet stream over Michigan in early May.
I won’t do a full report on Great Lakes water levels, but as of Fri., here’s the difference from average April level: Superior +9″, Michigan/Huron +16″, Erie +17″, Ontario +10″, St. Clair +18″.
Also: Check out the wild triple-play the White Sox pulled off Fri. evening. Fireworks after the game. Beautiful full moon. Tropical Cyclone Amos heading toward Samoa. Heavy rain in parts of Northern California (S. California stayed dry). Rainfall totals: 2.77″ Redding (daily record – they are now +9.43″ since Jan. 1), 2.40″ Honeydew, 1.50″ Fort Bragg, 1.08″ Arcata, 0.72″ S. Lake Tahoe, 0.52″ San Francisco, 0.41″ Stockton (a daily record), 0.27″ Monterrey, 0.17″ Sacramento, 0.09″ Fresno – 12″ snow at Sugar Bowl, 7″ at Daggett Pass. Hail at Lake Martin AL. Beautiful lenticular cloud in CA Friday. Blossoms/flowers in Central Park.
I took this pic. in the midst of a thundershower Fri. PM here in Oak Ridge. There was a river flowing from the downspout to the street. Oak Ridge had 1.27″ of rain Friday and more than half of that fell in 20 minutes. We only had one lightning bolt that was reasonably close. The rest was more distant grumbling. This was a very calm day. Officially, the average wind speed in Oak Ridge today was just 2.1 mph. We sat on the screened porch and watched the rain. Just before the storm, I saw a gigantic bird fly by. It looked like a pelican – might have been a heron. I walked 3 blocks to the supermarket and got some salmon for dinner. We had baked potatoes, with chive from my mother’s garden and dill from my sister’s garden. My mother looks forward to cooking for us. With my sister, brother-in-law and niece, we had 6 for dinner. My nephew isn’t here now – he’s graduating college and leaving at the end of the summer to teach English in Japan for at least a year. We’re planning on heading into Knoxville later today.
Just one in Michigan so far – down near Edwardsburg close to the Indiana border. Michigan has also had 7 reports of wind damage and one severe hail report (same storm that produced the small tornado. As is often the case…tornado season starts in the Deep South – often targeting MS and AL – then shifts to the Southern Plains in May (TX, OK, KS). Also – worst tornadoes of the 1990s. No EF4 or EF5 tornadoes so far this year.