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The GRR NWS has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for Muskegon, Ottawa, Kent, Ionia and Clinton counties to the south for a light mix of light snow, freezing rain, freezing drizzle and sleet overnight and tomorrow morning. The Advisory lasts until 9 am, but I wouldn’t rule out some slick spots lingering on side streets and rural roads into midday, especially gravel roads. The precipitation will be light, but it doesn’t take much freezing drizzle to ice things up. You can see current radar in the link below this one. There have been reports of accidents and slide offs in S. Wisconsin with the freezing drizzle. Road crews will have to throw some salt out tonight/early tomorrow. It will get above freezing by midday tomorrow and well into the 40s Sunday morning before a fairly strong cold front comes thru. At 10 pm, G.R. is 28° and Kalamazoo has 29°. Holland, Benton Harbor and Battle Creek are at 30° and S. Haven has 31°. So, we’re well below freezing and the pavement will be cold. At 10 pm, flurries were reported at Mt. Pleasant, Big Rapids, S. Haven, Holland and Fremont. NWS graphic.
Looks like G.R. has had a whopping 4 minutes of sunshine in the last 6 days and a total of 12.2 hours of sun in the last 17 days.
Also…the origin of Black Friday…Wave clouds over Nebraska…Global temperatures have finally fallen below average (sarcasm warning: though I bet Gavin Schmidt will find a way to make this the warmest Nov. ever…probably be picking only Flint’s temperature and extrapolating it over the entire world, using a winter of 1976-77 single-year baseline average)…From long-range forecaster Mark Vogan this evening: “Latest Siberian Stratospheric Warming Confirms Threat Of Another Record US Cold Blast In (mid-late) December.” Plenty of VERY cold air for this early in winter across N. Canada: -41 F at Old Crow, Yukon, and at Deadman Valley and Lindberg Landing, N.W.T. Arctic Village, AK, saw temps hit -35 F while Northway, AK, hit -31 F today The 6 highest-rated college football games this season featured either Florida State or Alabama. & 11 of the 25 most-watched games featured one of those two schools. Pretty sunset. Fall colors in Alabama. Much-needed significant rain coming to California. From Dr. Ryan Maue: “Looking for similar November analogs & horrible winters of yesteryear? November rankings: 2000, 1976, 2014, 1959, 1996, 1991, 1993,1972, 1985.” Extreme cold: The lowest temp. around the world on Friday was -63F in Khabyardino, Russia. Is “global warming” causing more lake-effect snow? No. Ski! Snow! Green Bay Packers need 400 volunteers to shovel out Lambeau Field before the Packers/Patriots game. Pretty cold start to Black Friday in Edmonton, Canada. Comet Lovejoy. Pretty frost at Beech Mt. NC.
Saturday PM – Radar here will update automatically. We’ll have periods of flurries or light snow this PM – not much…a dusting to maybe an inch or two at the very most as you go NE from Kent County. I am getting concerned about a light mix, including some freezing rain tonight…probably after 9 or 10 pm. There could be a period of slick roads late tonight, tomorrow morning before temps. climb above freezing about midday tomorrow. We have a south wind at 14 mph in G.R. at 1 pm and it’s still only 25° (average high is 42°). The wind chill is 13° – pretty chilly for a late Nov. afternoon.
Last night’s low temps: 16° G.R. and Lansing, 20° near the lake at Muskegon and Holland. Battle Creek, where it was cloudy, had a low of 21°, while Jackson, where it became partly cloudy for awhile, dipped to 11°. The U.P. was cold, with an unofficial -20° at Michigamme, -16° at Baraga Plains, -15° at Wakefield, -9 at Ironwood and -8 at Iron Mt. Grand Rapids has had 4 minutes of sunshine in the last 6 days, or an average of 40 SECONDS of sunshine per day.
There are 16 Ski areas open in Michigan today, including Bittersweet – it’s one of the earliest and best opening ever – with record Nov. snow over much of the state and temperatures running more than 6° colder than average.
Here’s Grand Rapids radar and Northern Michigan radar, NAM model 3-day snowfall forecast and GFS model 5-day snowfall forecast (totals increased on the Sat. overnight model run). Storm Total Snowfall will show the heaviest snow and Milwaukee looping radar. Regional radar and the Updated GRR NWS Short Term Discussion. More links: Grand Rapids radar, Northern Indian radar, Chicago radar, Detroit radar and Milwaukee radar. Here’s College of DuPage Radar Map (pick any radar in the U.S.), College of DuPage Grand Rapids radar, the West Michigan Lightning Tracker, National Lightning Tracker, the local warning/advisory map and the National warning/watch/advisory map, a surface weather map.The w You can checkout the latest Grand Rapids NWS discussion, the Northern Indiana NWS discussion (includes the Michigan Counties that border Indiana), the discussion for Northern Lower Michigan, and Eastern Lower Michigan. Here’s the Spyglass Condos Weather Station the S. Haven GLERL station, the Muskegon GLERL station, the Grand Haven Steelheaders webcam and weather station, and the weather station at Holland State Park. Check out the Maranatha Webcam at Lake Michigan and links to webcams. Here’s the infrared satellite loop (night) and the visible satellite loop (daytime), Lake Michigan water temperatures (summer). Here’s recent storm reports from SW Michigan, Northern Michigan, NE Illinois, SE. Wisconsin, Upper Michigan and E. Michigan. Check out the wind and wave height at the South Mid-Lake Michigan Buoy (Apr. to Nov. only), the North Mid-Lake Michigan Buoy (Apr. to Nov. only), the buoy at Big Sable Point near Ludington and the weather station on the beach at St. Joseph. Here’s Michigan wind gusts from MesoWest, data from the MAWN agricultural weather stations and Weather Underground (data at the bottom from private weather stations). Here’s the Consumers Energy Power Outage Map.
I’m a little late with the sports thread. The Lions beat the Bears. We turned off the TV for dinner when it was 14-3 Bears and after dinner the Lions were ahead for good. The Bears sure have some problems…I know it’s Detroit, but only 13 yards rushing? And the defense has certainly come down a couple notches since the Urlacher/Lovie Smith days. Looks like the Lions are on the road to the playoffs, probably not a Super Bowl team yet, but for all the years we’ve watched them, 8-4 is pretty good. They may end up 11-5 for the season. I can’t get Western Michigan (vs. N. Illinois) on my Comcast at home (ESPNU), so I’m watching Iowa and Nebraska on WOTV4. There are 16 college games on today. WOTV4′s second game at 3:30 pm is Stanford at UCLA (where it’ll be sunny and 80°). Saturday, WOTV4 is the place to watch football, with Michigan at Ohio St. at noon and Michigan St. at Penn St. at 3:30 pm – both on WOTV4. Notre Dame is at USC at 3:30 pm Sat. and the evening game on WOTV4 is #2 Oregon at Oregon St. where they are getting a steady rain today and could catch or rain or snow shower Sat. evening. Ferris St. is in the playoffs and they play in Big Rapids against Ohio Dominican at Noon tomorrow (Sat.). Of course, we have Michigan high school playoffs going on today and tomorrow. Muskegon Catholic, Mona Shores and G.R. South Christian all play today. The high school playoffs are televised on Fox Sports, which for me is Channel 48 on Comcast. We’ll have the highlights on 24-Hour News 8.
Click on the pic. to enlarge. This is from Jack Martin from nearly 2 weeks ago. There’s just a hint of the famous “Gales of November” in this picture. The water level of Lake Michigan/Huron was unchanged last week. It’s down 1″ in the last month, but up a whopping 21″ in the last year. The lakes remain 6″ above their historic average level. The water level of Lake Superior is down 3″ in the last month, up 10″ in the last year and 7″ above the historic average. Lake Erie has also dropped 3″ in the last month. Erie is 8″ higher than one year ago and 6″ above the average November level. Lake Ontario is the exception, down 4″ in the last month, down 5″ in the last year and is now 4″ below the century average level. Lake St. Clair is 11″ higher than one year ago and 6″ above the long-term average. Temperatures this month have been well below average over most of the Great Lakes region. This has also been a month with record snowfall at many locations, including Grand Rapids, Marquette and S. Ste Marie. Most of that has been lake-effect snow. Flow out of Lake Superior into Lake Huron down the St. Mary’s River is expected to continue to be “well above average”. The flow from Lake Huron down the St. Clair and Detroit Rivers will continue at above average levels, as well as flow from Lake Erie into Lake Ontario down the Niagara River and from Lake Ontario out the St. Lawrence River.
The buoys have been taken out of Lake Superior and Lake Ontario. Both the north (west of Leelanau, east of Door Co.) and south (between Holland and Milwaukee) are both still in the water and they both report a water temp. of 41.5°. The N Lake Huron buoy shows 41.2° and the S. Lake Huron buoy has a water temp. of 42.6°. There is one buoy in Lake Erie on the Canadian side (Port Stanley) and that shows 43.2°.
Look at these beautiful pics. of the St. Joseph Lighthouse by Tom Gill in the Daily Mail paper in London, England.
Grand Rapids has had 4 minutes of sunshine in the last 6 days. That’s an average of 40 seconds of sunshine per day!
33.2% of the Continental U.S. has snow on the ground this Thanksgiving Day. That’s about the average snow cover for Christmas Day. For the “Western Great Lakes Region” – the map in the middle – there is a 74.9% snow cover. The map on the left is snow and ice cover. The ice on Hudson Bay is developing at a fairly rapid rate (it usually takes a month). This evening it’s -4F at Moosinee on James Bay and -11F at Churchill, quite cold for this early in winter. Other temps as of 6 pm EST: +1 Thunder Bay, Ontario, -5 Fairbanks AK, -15 Yellowknife, -18 Dawson. Wednesday morning the temp. reached -21.3F in Winnipeg, Manitoba. Jamestown ND was 28 below zero this morning!! Lake Michigan has a 0.5% ice cover (a little ice in Green Bay). It’s the earliest that ice has started to form on Lake Michigan in 40 years. Ice is forming on the lakes and ponds in W. Michigan and in many cases it’s too weak to walk on yet. Gile, Wisconsin has had 110.6″ of snow this month of November! Oklahoma City has received more snow this month than Anchorage, Alaska! Bangor, Maine receives 25.9” of snow, breaking the record for all-time snowiest November.
Also: Antarctic ice is thicker than previously thought. The Antarctic icecap set a record in September for the greatest extent ever. Today, the ice extent is well above average. The Antarctic icecap has grown at a fairly steady pace since the mid 1980s. The Arctic icecap has grown significantly in the last two years. Total global sea ice has been running close to average for the last two years. Here’s heavy snow in Western North Carolina. Flooding in Morocco. Flooding in Brisbane, Australia. Winds up to 88 mph flipped planes and damaged buildings at Archerfield, Australia. Army mobilized to clean up after Brisbane, Australia storm. 39 people were injured in the Australian Storm. Record highs today in S. California: 85° in San Diego and L.A., 94° in Riverside. A tornado hit today around 7 am local time in Malaga, Spain.
Happy Thanksgiving Day 9:10 pm. I couldn’t begin to list everything I’m grateful for…I’d start with my wife and family (who put up me and my crazy schedule), then my job (as I have said many times…I can’t believe they actually pay me to have this much fun), then friends, health, my autograph picture of Ernie Banks…”stuff” is farther down the list, really.
Lake-Effect Snow Advisory has expired for Ottawa, Allegan, Van Buren and Western Kalamazoo Counties and remains in effect until 10 pm for Berrien, Cass and SW St. Joseph Co. MI and Elkhart Co. IN until 10 pm. We still have snow showers, mainly in the lakeshore counties and Cass Co. It’s 21° at 9 pm. Big Rapids and Ludington are downt o 19°. It’s already -4° at Iron Mt. and -8° at Ironwood. BTW, the temperature in Grand Rapids changed by only 5° in 65 hours from 10 pm on the 24th to 3 pm on the 27th. Here’s New York City – lit up and pretty on Thanksgiving Day.
Very interesting weather. A meso-low formed over Lake Michigan and drifted south with heavy snowfall and a brief increase in winds. In it’s wake, we have moderate lake-effect snow from Muskegon to parts of Berrien and Cass Counties. Snowfall today: 8″ 4 WNW Rothbury, 7″ Mears, 6″ 2 SE Douglas, 5″ Glenn, 3″ Holland, Zeeland and Port Sheldon, 2.3″ Grandville, 2″ Mattawan, 1.3″ Cloverdale, 0.4″ Grand Rapids (airport). Many of these reports were from earlier – late morning – and they have had more snow since the reports were called in. We’ll continue to have periods of light snow/flurries mainly west of a line from Hart to Kalamazoo to Sturgis. The snow will tend to diminish some this evening. Four inches of snow also fell at Cadillac. There is cold air pressing down…at 4 pm it’s just 18° at Green Bay and 9° at Ironwood and Houghton (and that’s with the wind coming across Lake Superior. North of Lake Superior it’s -2F at 4 pm at Geraldton and Hearst, Ontario.
Here’s radar and Regional radar. Here’s GFS forecast snow and NAM forecast snow. And the latest weather observations from around the state of Michigan. The East Coast storm is winding down, but as I write this, there are about 100,000 without power from Virginia to Maine – bummer on Thanksgiving Day. Over the last 5 days, Grand Rapids has averaged 45 SECONDS of sunshine per day. Hope you didn’t blink! I’m working the evening shift today. No 5 or 5:30 pm, but I’ll be here at 6 pm and after the Thursday Night NFL football game. (Lions won). Some much needed significant rain on the way for Central California. Coldest Thanksgiving in Chicago in 58 years. They had quite a soaking in Central FL: 8.10″ of rain at the NASA Shuttle City, 5.7″ Leesburg, 4.34″ Sanford (north of Orlando). My goodness! Look what happened in Woolloongabba!
Here’s Grand Rapids radar and Northern Michigan radar, NAM model 3-day snowfall forecast and GFS model 5-day snowfall forecast (totals increased on the Sat. overnight model run). Storm Total Snowfall will show the heaviest snow and Milwaukee looping radar. Regional radar and the Updated GRR NWS Short Term Discussion. More links: Grand Rapids radar, Northern Indian radar, Chicago radar, Detroit radar and Milwaukee radar. Here’s College of DuPage Radar Map (pick any radar in the U.S.), College of DuPage Grand Rapids radar, the West Michigan Lightning Tracker, National Lightning Tracker, the local warning/advisory map and the National warning/watch/advisory map, a surface weather map. You can checkout the latest Grand Rapids NWS discussion, the Northern Indiana NWS discussion (includes the Michigan Counties that border Indiana), the discussion for Northern Lower Michigan, and Eastern Lower Michigan. Here’s the Spyglass Condos Weather Station the S. Haven GLERL station, the Muskegon GLERL station, the Grand Haven Steelheaders webcam and weather station, and the weather station at Holland State Park. Check out the Maranatha Webcam at Lake Michigan and links to webcams. Here’s the infrared satellite loop (night) and the visible satellite loop (daytime), Lake Michigan water temperatures (summer). Here’s recent storm reports from SW Michigan, Northern Michigan, NE Illinois, SE. Wisconsin, Upper Michigan and E. Michigan. Check out the wind and wave height at the South Mid-Lake Michigan Buoy (Apr. to Nov. only), the North Mid-Lake Michigan Buoy (Apr. to Nov. only), the buoy at Big Sable Point near Ludington and the weather station on the beach at St. Joseph. Here’s Michigan wind gusts from MesoWest, data from the MAWN agricultural weather stations and Weather Underground (data at the bottom from private weather stations). Here’s the Consumers Energy Power Outage Map.
Click on the image (from www.weatherbell.com) to enlarge. WOW, look at those temperatures across Siberia. This is November! The temperature at Igarka was -62°F. If we get a “Siberian Express” (flow across the North Pole and down into the Continental U.S.), it’s going to be colder enough to give a snowman goose bumps. It’s also cold across Canada. Temperatures from the Lake Winnipeg area of Manitoba across NW Ontario were -20°F to -30°F this morning! Here’s current Canadian temperatures (in Celsius). It won’t be anytime soon, but the Arctic air is poised and ready to spread an icy grip across the Central and Eastern U.S.
Pic. is sunset yesterday in Gile, Wisconsin, where it looks like mid-winter with the frozen lakes and deep snowcover (pic. from NWS Duluth and Peg Sutherland). We have already set record November snowfalls in G.R. (30.3″), Marquette (50.8″) and S. Ste Marie (60.8″ – that’s 49.6″ above average!). Other November season snowfalls (and keep in mind these are from observers who are often missing days during the month for one reason or another): 52.7″ Munising, 70.1″ Herman and 73.8″ at Bergland Dam. There is a Lake-Effect Snow Advisory for much of the U.P. for another 2-8″ of snow. Grand Rapids has now had measurable snow on 10 of the last 11 days. We have had at least a trace of precipitation on 22 consecutive days and measurable precipitation on 17 of the last 22 days. We are now over 4″ of precipitation for the month. We have had 11 days with measurable snow this month. November is averaging 6.2° colder than average. Over the last 3 weeks, we’ve had just 10% of possible sunshine. Yesterday we had a high of 31 and a low of 29 – only a 2° difference.
The overnight NAM (car) model and the GFS both give G.R. about 3/4″ of snow on Thanksgiving Day. The NAM (car) prints out a couple inches of snow for G.R. on Tues. with the GFS keeping any significant snow north of Kent Co. The GFS-plot has just 1/10th inch of rain here over the weekend with highs of 39 Sat. evening and 43 for Sunday. That model cools us down on Monday, but takes G.R. to 50 on Weds. with 1/2″ of rain. The European has a whopping 1.75″ of rain for G.R. for the middle of next week, also taking the temp. to the mid 40s on Weds. That would be a fairly brief warm-up before it gets cool again.
Snow cover Weds. AM: 1″ Grand Rapids, Cutlerville, East G.R., 2″ Muskegon, Reed City, Hart, Fremont, Grandville, White Cloud, Allendale, Alpena, 3″ Big Rapids, Walker, Traverse City, 4″ Houghton Lake, Petosky, 5″ Scottville, Kalkaska, 6″ Charlevoix, 9″ Gaylord, Manistique, 13″ S. Ste. Marie, 14″ Munising, Calumet, 16″ Grand Marais, Marquette, 19″ Ironwood, Bergland Dam, 20″ Ishpeming. It was cold in the U.P. this morning: -11 Stambaugh, -10 east of Champion, 9″ Doe Lake, -7 Wakefield, -4 Marquette. Natural gas inventories fell 162 bcf last week, largest drawdown ever for 3rd week of November, 4.5% of stockpile.
Thundersnow in Baltimore MD this late morning. Heavy rain in Central Florida: 6.40″ Daytona Beach, 3.77″ Tampa, 3.17″ Orlando. East Coast snowstorm – already up to 8″ in Central PA. Tropical Depression has moved across the Philippines with heavy rain – depression is heading toward Vietnam.
Ice is already forming in Green Bay. Lake Winnibago is already frozen over. It’s the earliest ice on record on the Great Lakes. Ice could be seen in Black Bay in Lake Superior by Nov. 15th. The Great Lakes reached 92.2% ice cover last winter, second only to 1979 with 95% ice cover. Grand Rapids has set a new record for Nov. snowfall at 30.3″ (1″ new today) and Marquette has also set a new November snowfall record (51″ and counting). Here’s another winter outlook callin’ it cold in the Great Lakes. Snowing in the Cascade Mts. of Washington and Oregon. Memorable Thanksgiving Storms. It sure is cold across much of Canada. At 9 pm: -11F The Pas and Churchill, -22F Yellowknife, +5F Winnipeg, +10F Mosinee (at James Bay). As you can see in the map on the right, ice cover is progressing ahead of schedule on Hudson Bay.
On Nov. 25, 1950 Michigan and Ohio State met for what has been called the “Blizzard Bowl” or the “Snow Bowl“. Check out the film of the storm here and here. Michigan won the game 9-3 despite gaining only 27 yards of offense in 46 plays. They had no first downs, didn’t complete a pass and punted 24 times. In fact, there were 45 punts in the game. Both teams mostly tried two runs then punted on 3rd down, so in case the punter slipped, they could try again on fourth down. Only 2 of the 45 punts were returned (for a total of 8 yards). That was mostly because the return man couldn’t find the ball. Most just hit the snow and stopped without bouncing. There were only 10 fumbles in the game. The temperature at the start of the game was +10° and the wind was howling out of the north-northeast. One Ohio St. player remarked that he was supposed to go down and block a linebacker, but when he ran downfield he could find him! All the points were scored after blocked kicks in the first half. Several hundred Boy Scouts were on the sidelines helping to sweep snow off the field so the officials and players could find the yard markers. Most of the state of Ohio got 10″ or more of snow, with reports up to 33″ and drifts up to 25 feet! The temperature in Grand Rapids that morning reached -10°F, the coldest temperature ever recorded here in the month of November. (photo – OSU library)