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(and a little bonus alliteration – you know…like Peter Piper picked a peck of pickled peppers…) Happy Sunday! So far this month of November is 6 degrees warmer than average in G.R. If we finish at +5.8, we can cancel out last November, which was -5.8 cooler than average. Last November we had a record 31″ of snow. Our November average snowfall in G.R. is 7.3″ – so it’ll take a handful of years with below average Nov. snowfall to balance out the snow we got last year in Nov. This year, G.R. has had 3.5″ of snow. Pic. is Thunder Bay Island on Saturday…lots of sunshine, crisp, blue sky and a pretty flat Lake Huron. (from NOAA Coastwatch and GLERL).
This is going to be one of the calmest late November weekends ever. The average wind speed yesterday (Sat.) was 5.1 mph and we’ll probably be under 5 mph for an average wind today (midnight-to-midnight). This has also been one of the sunniest Novembers we have ever had…with 51% of possible sunshine so far (avg. is 28%).
Let’s look at some oscillations. Each oscillation is a part of a puzzle – usually not the only factor that determines the weather pattern. First the Arctic Oscillation. At the link you can see that the AO has been quite positive (which teleconnects to warmer than average weather in the Eastern U.S. (including Michigan). The AO starts to move to neutral-negative around Dec. 10-12. The North Atlantic Oscillation has also been quite positive (a signal for warm in the eastern U.S.). That also is trending toward more neutral or even slightly negative for mid-December. Ditto for the Antarctic Oscillation – which has been strongly positive and is heading back to neutral or even slightly negative for mid-Dec. The Pacific North America Pattern (PNA) works the opposite…negative values here correspond to a trough in the West and a Ridge (warmer pattern) in the East…positive values usually mean a ridge in the West and a trough (cooler) in the Eastern U.S. The PNA has been negative (trough in the West), but it looks to be going back toward a positive pattern for mid Dec. If you look here at a map of upper level wind flow, you can see the current pattern – trough in the West – ridge in the East. So, it’s been generally warm in the East and cool in the West (Butte MT is 5.6 deg. cooler than average in Nov.). There’s no guarantee that the index values are forecast correctly or that the strong El Nino won’t be able to in some way override the weather pattern…but the combined forecast values of these indecies would suggest that Michigan will be warmer than average thru about Dec. 12 – then we’ll see a trend toward a cooler (but probably not super cold) pattern.
Overnight model data: The NAM has highs for G.R. at 38, 41, 43 for the next 3 days. The GFS highs for G.R. starting with today (Sun.) are 46, 50, 54, 45, 45, 49, 49. The NAM has the chance of measurable rain at just 6% for Monday, but 80% for Monday night. The GFS is similar with just a 13% chance of measurable rain thru 7 pm Monday, but a 94% chc. of rain after 7 pm Monday night and a 96% chance for Tuesday. The GFS gives G.R. 0.49″ of rain from Monday night thru Tues. and another 1/10th inch Tues. night into Weds. AM which could be part or even all snow. The overnight European gives G.R. 0.19″ rain Mon. night/Tues. – then another 0.20″ Tues. night into Weds. AM – that could be part or all snow. If that is snow that would be a couple inches, much of which would melt on the relatively warm roads, but might accumulate some on the grass. If we do get some accumulating snow, it won’t stick around with temps. back well into the 40s for Friday and Saturday. If there are slick roads, that would most likely be Tues. night/Weds. AM – best chc. north of I-96.
Also: Here’s the National Hazards Map. Overnight they have had frost/freeze warnings for much of California. You can also see the Winter Weather Advisories from OK to MN for up to 10″ of snow. Snow will get into NW Wisconsin and the Western (and probably Central) U.P. Wakefield MI had 3″ of snow on the ground Sat. AM with a low temp. of +4. Iron Mt. and Kenton had lows of +5. Grayling was +10 and Cadillac +15. The usually cool spot of Roscommon had a low of +9 Sat. AM.
And…check out the snow in central Italy – about 100 miles east of Rome. More snow pics. from Central Italy. Highest 3-day rainfall total: 11.61 inches in Killeen, Texas. Video of flooding near Granbury, TX. Heavy freezing rain in KS. Yuck. Drone view of ice storm. At peak, 78,000 customers without power due to ice storm in OK. Downtown OKC in the ice. Ice on the trees in Edmund OK. Tree branches cracking off in the ice at Quanah TX. Observation near Lubbock
@8 pm showed a temperature of 50° at a height of 4,400′ above the ground. Temp at the surface was 28°. Classic freezing rain conditions.
Friday night – getting late…leftover turkey dinner for lunch Friday and turkey soup for dinner. Watched some football. I watched the Lowell/Detroit MLK game – wow…great game…as close as you could come to victory…absolutely nothing to be negative about…last pass was a great pass, great catch…defense was very good…you can’t stop everything. Congrats. to Zeeland West and Muskegon Catholic Central. West Catholic plays today. Don’t know if you watched the TCU/Baylor game in the deluge. 3.45″ of rain fell there on Friday after 2.71″ on Thursday. That’s 6.16″ in 48-hours. The weather really slowed the offense, esp. passing and caused some fumbles. And Iowa wins without converting a 3rd down – how strange is that. I don’t usually mention basketball, but San Francisco scored 44 points in the 1st quarter Fri. night and made 15 or 20 3-point shots. If they stay this hot, they just may go undefeated this year! Big college football games today. Ohio St. at Michigan (dry and cool) on WOTV4 There’s Michigan St. and Penn St. And Grand Valley plays Ferris St. in Big Rapids. I believe that game is televised on Channel 900 on Comcast. We’ve also got more high school playoff games today at Ford Field.
This is a screen grab from the South Haven GLERL camera showing cloudy skies and a very choppy Lake Michigan on Friday. The waves were coming over the breakwater and the wind there was a steady 26 mph. Gale Warnings were in effect south of Pentwater until 6 pm Fri.. Then Small Craft Advisories will run until 6 am Sat. Note the waves are much lower at Muskegon, where a north wind comes off the land, as opposed to S. Haven, where the south wind comes down the water. Total rainfall: 1.00″ Grand Rapids, 1.72″ Hart – the most I saw was 2.2″ at Cadillac – that’s a hefty rain for late November in Michigan. The NAM high temps. for G.R. for the next 3 days show 38, 38, 42. The GFS highs for G.R. starting today (Sat.) are 43, 45, 45, 50, 45, 47, 45, 44 – with rain Tuesday into Weds. AM. We’re on the “warm side” of that system, so we get mostly or all rain. It’ll be snow for the western U.P. The overall pattern stays warmer than average (41) through it looks like the first 2 or 3 weeks of Dec. without much snow. Here’s high temps. from yesterday. Cold high temps from Fri: 9 Bend OR, 10 Dillon MT, 12 Cheyenne WY, 17 Colorado Springs, 22 Houghton MI, 23 Las Vegas NM, 24 Dalhart TX, 25 Amarillo TX…at the south tip of TX, the high was 86 at Brownsville. Orlando, Miami and Key west made 81…just low 50s in Las Vegas NV.
Also: Slo-mo of waves at Dauphin Is. AL. Sure is easy to see where the cold front stretches this AM from Michigan to Texas. Hurricane Sandra is weakening…was a Category 4, now down to Category 2 and should weaken to a tropical storm then just a depression as it moves into Mexico north of Mazatlan. Here’s video of the storm surge in the Mexican coast. Here’s a map of low temps. this morning. Temperatures across Texas this early morning ranged from the mid 20s (with snow and freezing rain) in the Panhandle to a mid-summer 78 at Brownsville. It was cold in the N. Plains and West. Low temps. this AM. included -20 at W. Yellowstone MT, -19 at Big Piney WY and -17 at Butte MT. Alturas CA dipped to +1 and it was in the mid 30s all the way to the coast at Monterrey. Prescott AZ got down to a frosty 19. Check out the fresh snow in Colorado. Some hefty 24-hr. rainfall totals in Texas: 3.75″ Fort Worth, 5.80″ Frisco. It’s now the wettest year ever in Dallas/Fort Worth. Nastiest weather today in the Southern Plains. Ice storm in OK – 15,000 without power in the OKC area.
Great Thanksgiving at the Steffen house…dinner wasn’t until 8:15 pm – longest Apples to Apples game I’ve ever played. That didn’t break up until after 2 am – then half the crowd went shopping (not me). My wife has a Master’s degree from the Univ. of Ill. Dept. of Agriculture (her degree was called “Family Housing and Home Management” back then), so she’s everything from a great cook to a much better home repair person than I am.
The Muskegon GLERL camera (from NOAA Coastwatch) caught a kite-boarder Thurs. AM. At 2 am Friday, it’s up to 59 in G.R., 60 in Benton Harbor, S. Haven and Battle Creek. The surface map shows the cold front runs from Muskegon to Mt. Pleasant. The cool air comes in pretty quickly…at 2 am it’s down to 41 in Ludington and 34 with light snow on Beaver Is. Houghton has 24. So, our temps. will fall as the cold air comes in today. That won’t get here until early tomorrow. When it does, the winds will flip from south to north. A large area of moderate rain is north of a line from Grand Haven to Alma. Radar here. HEY Pouring rain in Green Bay – Packers and Bears tonight on WOOD TV8 – someone to follow tonight: https://twitter.com/LoriNickel
Cold this morning in the Northern Rockies…it was -13F this morning in Great Falls and Utica, Montana and -14 at Ryegate. Other morning lows: -2 Williston ND and Bend OR and -3 at Ely, Nevada. Bridgeport CA (elevation 6,472 ft.) got down to +5. On the warm side of things, we had low temps. of 75 at Brownsville TX and Honolulu HI. Here’s midday temps. across the U.S. on Thanksgiving Day.
This is a screen grab of Crater Lake in Oregon this Thanksgiving morning. Crater Lake is the deepest lake in the U.S., much deeper than any of the Great Lakes. 24-hour snowfall: 23″ Crater Lake OR (webcams here and here), 2″ Kirkwood CA (look at the crowd skiing there), 12″ Bend OR (webcam here). Boyne Mt. hopes to open Saturday. Boyne Highlands targeted opening date is Dec. 4. Enjoy your holiday! Thanks for checking my blog.
It took Alan McFadyn 6 years, 4,200 hours and 720,000 photos to get this picture.
Also: Kalamazoo has the 2nd cheapest gas in the U.S.!! The temperature in Amarillo TX dropped 16 deg. in an hour when the cold front came thru. Turkey Day waterspout in Turkey Ice making travel difficult in Omaha. Look at these beautiful snowflakes. Ominous first set of downs for the Lions. After that things got much better…winning 45-14. Disneyworld tonight. It’s winter in Colorado and in Wyoming. Look at the snow in the Alps. Freezing rain in W. Iowa.
Bad day for the Philadelphia Eagles – not only did they lose by 31 points to the now 4-7 Detroit Lions – but animal rights protesters ran unto the field toward the end of the game. The protesters gained 175 yards and ran for two touchdowns on the Eagles. The Eagles signed both the protesters…they’ll start against New England.
We had only nine tornadoes in Michigan in 2015, 55 reports of large (1″ in diameter) hail and 229 t-storm wind damage reports…all well under average. Only 10 tornado fatalities in the U.S. in 2015. Nine of ten were in Tornado Watches and one was in a Severe T-Storm Watch (awesome job by the Storm Prediction Center again this year). Of the 10 fatalities, 7 were in mobile homes. Kansas has had 178 tornadoes in 2015 and not a single tornado fatality! Texas has had the most tornadoes with 213 (so far). It’s a big state and it’s been a very wet year in the Southern Plains. As far as I can tell, there have been no EF5 tornadoes in the world in 2015. In the U.S. in 2015, there has been only one tornado rated EF4, 12 rated EF3, 41 rated EF2, 295 rated EF1 and 600 rated EF0. (tornadoes that cross state boundaries are countied in both states).
Seven states had no tornadoes this year (AK HI ME VT, CT RI NJ). The 10 tornado fatalites were in March, April and May. We had no tornado deaths in summer this year in the U.S. Map from SPC shows location of 2015 tornadoes (red), hail (green) and wind damage (blue) here in Michigan.
Check out the thread below that has more on the current cloudy and occasionally wet weather this Thanksgiving Day. We’ve love to see (and use on the air/online) your pics. of fall colors, weather or news – you can send us an email at email@example.com or thru ReportIt. My email is firstname.lastname@example.org. You can follow me on Twitter (@bsteffen) or on facebook here: https://www.facebook.com/Bill-Steffen-244277545622/?fref=ts (this is my fan page…my friends page is up to the 5,000 limit…but everyone can join my fan page. Happy Thanksgiving!
Showers are likely today (Thurs.) and Friday. The GFS model prints out a total of 0.78″ of rain for G.R., but a whopping 1.96″ for Traverse City and 2.13″ for Ludington. The European model gives G.R. 0.45″ of rain, 1.45″ for Ludington and 1.70″ for Traverse City. Again that’s combined thru Friday. No significant snow events in sight…again I think December will bring above average temps. and below average snowfall. The afternoon run of the GFS gave G.R. a high of 58 today (I’ve got out 55). Temperatures will fall slowly on Friday. The weekend looks cool and dry, with more rain next Mon. night into Tues.
Sports: Thursday: The Lions are on a roll (well, by Lions standards) with back-to-back (narrow) wins over Green Bay and Oakland. They’ve also won 2 years in a row on Thanksgiving Day. Philadelphia comes to town for a 12:30 pm game on FOX. The Eagles have scored as many points as they have given up (229) and are going the other way with back-to-back loses to Miami (a one-point loss) and Tampa Bay (a 28-point blowout). Then Carolina heads to a very soggy Dallas (3″ of rain expected there) to meet the Cowboys at 4:30 pm on CBS. The evening contest is on WOOD TV8/NBC is Da Bears against the Packers at Lambeau Field. That’s at 8:30 pm.
Friday: There are a lot of college games on Friday. Western MIchigan takes on a tough #24 Toledo team on the road at Noon. It may be raining for that game. Eastern MI travels to Central MI – that’s a 1 pm start on ESPN3. The showers may not quite clear Mt. Pleasant by kickoff and the ground/stands will be wet. You can watch #15 Navy at Houston at Noon on WOTV4. That will be followed by #4 Iowa at Nebraska. Nebraska is 5-6, but their 6 losses have come by an average of less than 4 points – and they did beat Michigan St. Lincoln NE is under a winter storm warning for snow and freezing rain for Thurs./Thurs. night., but nothing more than a chilly flurry for game day.
There are 3 high school playoff games on Friday featuring local teams. At 10 am Muskegon Catholic Central plays Waterford Our Lady…at 1 pm we have Lowell vs. Detroit MLK and at 7:30 pm it’s Zeeland West against Flint Powers Catholic. These games are at Ford Field and I think are carried of Fox Sports Detroit and a network of radio stations.
Saturday: The biggest game is #10 Michigan and #8 Ohio St in Ann Arbor. That game is at Noon on WOTV4. It should be dry, but cool – maybe 40 at kickoff. The other biggest game is #2 Ferris St. hosting #12 Grand Valley. That game will be streaming on the web and also on Channel 900 for Comcast/Xfinity viewers. The 3rd biggest game is #5 Michigan St. hosting Penn St. That game is on ESPN. There’s two big evening games. #6 Notre Dame at #9 Stanford – that’s a 7:30 start on FOX and #3 Oklahoma at #11 Oklahoma St. at 8 pm on WOTV4. There is one high school playoff game at Ford Field on Saturday. That’s G.R. West Catholic vs. River Rouge. One more note…WXSP occasionally carries a football game. This Saturday at noon we have Duke at Wake Forest. I know you’ll probably be watching Michigan/OSU on WOTV4 – but a few of you might be interested in watching that game or flipping back and forth.
ALSO: Muskegon tied a record high of 56 today (Weds.). Muskegon also reached 56 on this date in 1896 and 1952. In G.R. we missed our record high of 65 (1918) by 11 degrees. Here’s the CFSv2 forecast of how much snow we’ll get from Dec. 1 to Mar. 31. Not enough snow east of Lake Ontario (and probably Michigan). I’ve got 58″ out for the winter…likely well below the avg. of 74″ for G.R. Here’s a view from a ship going thru the Soo Locks. Nice pic. of the eye of Hurricane Sandra (don’t call her “Sandy”). Here’s the CFSv2 snowfall forecast from Dec. 1 to March 31. Note it’s not the best with lake-effect snow: I’ve got out 58″ for the winter for G.R. – avg. is 74″. Freezing rain a threat in the Plains. Clouds blocking our view of the full moon tonight in West Michigan. Cool slo-mo lightning. Highest November sea-level pressure ever recorded in eastern New England. NASA’s MERRA-2 satellite reanalysis…Based on daily data thru October, year 2015 will finish 2nd warmest behind 2005 in the satellite era (since ’79). 24″ of snow on the ground at McGrath and at Bettles AK. High temp. of just 10F in Great Falls MT and 12 at Lewistown MT. A 45-mph wind gust damaged tents at a Sacramento, CA, flea market. 11 injuries reported. Bright full moon in NYC as they get ready for the big parade in the AM.
Links: Here’s Grand Rapids radar and Northern Michigan radar, Milwaukee looping radar. Regional radar and the Updated GRR NWS Short Term Discussion. More links: Northern Indiana radar, Chicago radar, Detroit radar and Milwaukee radar.Here’s College of DuPage Radar Map (pick any radar in the U.S.), College of DuPage Grand Rapids radar, the West Michigan Lightning Tracker, National Lightning Tracker, the local warning/advisory map and the National warning/watch/advisory map, a surface weather map. You can checkout the latest Grand Rapids NWS discussion, the Northern Indiana NWS discussion (includes the Michigan Counties that border Indiana), the discussion for Northern Lower Michigan, and Eastern Lower Michigan. Here’s the Spyglass Condos Weather Station the S. Haven GLERL station, the Muskegon GLERL station, the Grand Haven Steelheaders webcam and weather station, and the weather station at Holland State Park. Check out the links to webcams. Here’s theinfrared satellite loop (night) and the visible satellite loop (daytime), Lake Michigan water temperatures (summer). Here’s recent storm reports from SW Michigan, Northern Michigan, NE Illinois, SE. Wisconsin, Upper Michigan and E. Michigan. Check out the wind and wave height at the South Mid-Lake Michigan Buoy (Apr. to Nov. only), the North Mid-Lake Michigan Buoy (Apr. to Nov. only), the buoy at Big Sable Point near Ludington and the weather station on the beach at St. Joseph. Here’s Michigan wind gusts from MesoWest, data from the MAWN agricultural weather stations and Weather Underground (data at the link from private weather stations). Here’s the Consumers Energy Power Outage Map. Fall colors in NC. Tornado damage at Floresville TX. Tornado puts travel trailer on top of 3-story motel!
We’ve love to see (and use on the air/online) your pics. of fall colors, weather or news – you can send us an email at email@example.com or thru ReportIt.
A most happy Thanksgiving from me, my wife Gayle, and daughters #1, #2 and #3…and from all of us at Storm Team 8 and WOOD TV.
This is the Muskegon Channel this AM – Muskegon tied a record high temperature of 56 today (Weds.) I haven’t seen any boats yet this AM, but one pic. had two of them in the channel yesterday – looked like both boats were fishing. The lake is choppy today. The Muskegon beach weather station shows a wind of 19 mph. The mid-Lake Michigan buoy has winds of 22 mph and 5-foot waves. The mid-lake buoy shows an air temp. of 48 and a water temp. of 47.7 – that’s a couple degrees warmer than average. There are Small Craft Advisories for Lake Michigan (Gale Warnings north of Pentwater). For anyone traveling, here’s the National Hazards Map – click on a spot on the map to get forecast and watch/warning details for that area. There’s a Blizzard Warning for SW Wyoming. Best to avoid I-80 if you’re traveling out West. Traffic problem in Chicago. Up to half a foot of snow is expected along I-80 between Reno and Sacramento in CA. Snow will fall from NE New Mexico thru KS up into W. Iowa, where you’ll find Winter Weather Advisories. East of the snow, heavy rain could cause local flooding from N. Texas to the St. Louis Area. There could also be some freezing rain with this system. In general, the east is warmer than avg. and the west is cooler than average. In Michigan, roads will be dry into this evening with a chance of showers later tonight into tomorrow (heavier rain west and south of G.R. tomorrow). Wet roads for much of Lower Michigan for Thursday into early Friday. Showers are likely Friday AM, but showers will end from north to south Friday PM/evening with dry roads on Sat. and Sun. in Lower MI.
Quick note – 6:35 pm – Some light showers (more sprinkles than not) moving thru the area now. Expect a trace to a few hundredths of an inch this evening…probably not worth the umbrella if you’re running in and out. The afternoon run of the GFS gives G.R. a high of 58 tomorrow…then 49 at daybreak Friday falling to 37 at 7 pm Friday. The chance of rain on that model is 19% before 1 am tonight, but 88% after 1 am tonight…then 90% tomorrow and 100% for tomorrow night. Saturday looks cool and dry…weather should be OK for all the football games. GVSU and Ferris St. will be on Comcast channel 900 and also streaming on the internet (see link). Tom Cleary will do his usual awesome job calling the game.
Hurricane Sandra will weaken to a tropical storm and then a depression as it moves into W. Mexico north of Mazatlan. Winds not much of a concern, but some local flooding. Moisture from Sandra will create heavy rain from Texas to S. Missouri. Up to 6″ of rain forecast in eastern OK. Much of TX/OK has had well-above average rainfall this year, ending the drought that some had blamed on global warming (the primary cause was La Nina). “As of July 16, 2015, Texas was officially 100-percent drought free after record rainfall during May 2015.” NCEP showing global temps. at record warm for the satellite era as El Nino peaks…global temps. will fall late 2016 to 2017 as the El Nino fades away. This El Nino ranks #2 in the satellite era, behind 1997. Cold this morning in the Northwest…down to +8 at Great Falls MT and +4 in Cut Bank MT – Edmonton, Alberta dropped to -29F. Wow! Two identical storms two years apart. Here’s something you don’t see everyday – a waterspout off Saudi Arabia. Person listed as missing after 2011 tornado found alive in Florida – three people still listed as missing from that tornado. Nice updraft on this storm. This am it was warmer in Anchorage AK than in Crestview FL. Snowcover in the Alps (note snow on the mountains and no snow in the valleys). 14″ of snow near Bend, OR, with 4″ in the last 3 hrs, 75 mph gust at Sunnyside, WA.
At noon, already up to 54 at the Muskegon Arpt – 52 Holland Arpt. – 49 G.R. ….cooler where there is still some snow on the ground – 45 at Sturgis and Three Rivers, 43 at Hillsdale. Morning run of the NAM model gives G.R. a high of 54 tomorrow with an 88% chance of measurable rain…GFS model has a high of 57 tomorrow with a 98% chance of measurable rain. Don’t know if you heard me mention on the news last night that I think Dec. will also end up warmer than average in the Great Lakes – a pattern we have been in since Sept. Feb. should be the coolest month of the winter relative to average. December should also give much of the Great Lakes below average snowfall. The GFS is showing a mostly rain event around the 6th/7th. Low gas prices a blessing, especially for the poor and middle class traveling during the holidays this year. Here’s the visible (daytime) satellite loop – you can see the snow on the ground in SE. Lower Michigan and N. Indiana and the clouds approaching from the west.
Two Magnitude 7.6 earthquakes was recorded this evening along the Peru-Bolivia border. One was centered 105 mi WNW of Iberia, Peru and 428 mi. ENE of Lima, Peru. The quake occurred at 5:45 pm EST. It was followed by another 7.6 magnitude earthquake 5 minutes later. 5.9 magnitude aftershock. This was a very deep earthquake, 374 miles below the surface and it occurred in a sparsely-populated jungle area. It’s estimated that it was felt by over 1.2 million people in Peru, western Brazil and Bolivia. An estimated 30,000 would have felt it “strongly” or “very strongly”. At this time (8:20 pm) there are no reports of casualties.
Over the past century, 91 earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or greater have occurred at depths greater than 300 km globally; 13 of these were located in the same region as today’s quakes. The largest nearby event at these depths was an M 8.2 Bolivia earthquake. The most recent large event in the immediate vicinity of the November 24, 2015 events was a M 7.0 earthquake in October 1990.
Also – Check out the baseball-sized hail that pounded Italy today! It appears to be over a foot deep in this picture. Tonight’s 99% full moon over New Orleans. Hurricane Sandra forms west of Mexico – the 2nd latest hurricane in the season to develop since reliable records begain in 1971. Snow falling over a good portion of the western U.S. Here’s snow in Spokane. Lake-effect convective clouds over Lake Ontario. Dallas TX needs 2.8″ to have its wettest year on record going back to 1899. Should happen this Fri or Sat. More large hail pics. from Italy today. Still some awesome fall colors to see. The Paris Effect…97% of Americans don’t believe that climate change is a top concern. The 2nd longest streak of temperatures of 70 degrees or higher at Key West FL has come to an end…4/2 to 11/24. 9 above zero at Saranac Lake NY Tues. AM. The high temp in Beijing on Tuesday was only -4C (25F), the lowest temp since Jan. 2013. Another “frost flower”. Full moon tonight. Nice sun dog. Quite a view from the Austrian Alps.
Rain is likely on Thanksgiving Day, likely lasting into early Friday. The rain may start late Weds. night and may continue into at least early Friday. Roads will be wet Thurs. into Fri. midday. The GFS model prints out a total of 0.89″ of rain during this period, while the European model has 1.15″…so quite a soaking. The last system like this produced a little less rainfall than models forecast, but this should still be a substantial rain. The combination of warmer temps. and the rain will melt all of our snow (including most all of the piles). The FIM and GFS models bring back another slug of rain Sunday to Monday, but the GFS is dry and I’ll lean in the dry direction for most of the weekend.
Also: Every female TV meteorologist is wearing this dress? It’s a tight squeeze getting through the locks on the Great Lakes. New Tropical Depression in the Eastern Pacific will bring significant rain into Mexico north of Mazatlan. A recurving typhoon in the Western Pacific may mean cool weather in the Eastern U.S. A nearly full moon tonight. The difference between snow and no snow! Frost flowers. M5.5 earthquake Guerrero-Oaxaca border region, Mexico…east of Acapulco, felt strongly in Mexico City. NWS % chance of rain for Thanksgiving Day (I’m at 80% for my viewing area).
Here’s the NWS Weather Prediction Center. Note the stripe of heavier rain from Texas to the Great Lakes…also some much-needed rain for California. Google street view shows a new house, prev. destroyed in 2013 Moore EF5 getting a shelter. Heavy snow coming to the mountains of CA.
This picture from David Alkema in Jenison shows an ornamental tree with leaves on amid the snow cover. It’s only a guess, but this may be a Callery or Bradford pear tree. This type of tree has become more common in urban and some suburban areas. On the good side, this tree produces brilliant, white blossoms in spring – no messy fruit – and it will often hold leaves into mid-November. It can also survive and heat and dry climate of urban areas surrounded by concrete and asphalt. On the other hand, these trees are susceptible to storm damage and don’t have a long life span. Also, still a lot of fall color in Central Park NYC.
This is a satellite picture, taken at night and illuminated by a nearly full moon. It shows the swath of snow that fell Friday/Saturday from S. Dakota to Michigan and NW Ohio. You can see the rivers cutting thru the snow. You can also see the lights of cities (wider picture here). You can easily pick out Chicago, Minneapolis, Des Moines, Omaha…you can see a “line” of lights from Indianapolis to St. Louis along I-70. You can see the lights of Grand Rapids, Holland, Muskegon, Kalamazoo, Battle Creek and more. Here’s a zoomed-in view of Southern Lake Michigan showing the snow cover. Also – Arctic ice extent greater now than on any Nov. 23 over the past 10 years. Lake-effect snow illuminated by a nearly full moon. Jet “flies across” the moon. Sunrise in Chicago – looking east – complete with Harrison Crib (water intake) in the background…ducks and “Arctic sea smoke” in the foreground. Cold in Alaska, -34F at Arctic Village, high of -5F at Barrow, 23″ of snow on the ground at McGrath.
A few patches of fog around early this Tues…then partly cloudy to overcast and cool. Warmest high temp. on the overnight GFS is 52 on Thursday with an 84% chance of rain on Thurs. and 93% Fri. (mainly AM). GFS gives G.R. 0.79″ of rain from Weds. night to Fri. AM – dry on Saturday. The overnight European has a nearly identical 0.80″ of rain for G.R. during the same time period. Saturday is dry with a chance of rain showers again by Sun. PM.
Drone8 got this pic. of the snow on the ground at the Meijer Gardens (in G.R.). You can recognize Lena’s Farm (a favorite place of mine – we’re members of the Meijer Gardens), the lake at the top of the picture is on the east edge of the gardens and the lake in the Japanese Garden at the bottom of the pic. Here’s more Drone8 video. Drone8 showing the ice on the shallow ponds Sunday. More Drone8 video. Here’s Drone8 lifting off from Da Vinci’s horse at the Meijer Gardens. You can see the snow on the ground (Sunday snow cover: 9″ Flint, 7″ Lansing, 4″ Hastings, Detroit, 3″ Holland, Saranac, 2″ Grand Rapids, Muskegon and Alpena, 1″ Fremont, Houghton Lake, Whitehall and Fremont…just a trace in W. Oceana Co. Check out the MODIS Great Lakes pic. There is some cloud cover, but you get a general idea of who had the snow.
The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for Ottawa, Muskegon, Oceana, Newaygo, Mecosta, Mason, Lake, Osceola, Manistee, Wexford, Leelanau, Benzie and Grand Traverse Counties. Here’s the National Weather Service take on the lake-enhanced snow today. Snowfall amounts are expected to be 1-4″ north of a line from Holland to Big Rapids and up to 3-6″ in NW Lower Michigan. There’s a Small Craft Advisory until 10 pm. Wide variation of snowfall across the Chicago area.
Wow – Lions have won two in a row. Turkey Day Threepeat? Big wins for MSU, U of M, Ferris St. and GVSU. Scenario where 13-0 Iowa gets left out of playoffs: MSU<PSU, OSU<UM, Iowa barely beats 2-loss team in B10CG, Clemson, Bama, ND & OU win out.
Here’s a look at the snow cover across the Midwest from the Fri./Sat. storm. You can see the rivers cutting thru the snow, esp. in Iowa and Lake Michigan stands out. Another satellite view of the snow cover. How about this sunset in Italy. Cool pic. of snow showers over Lake Ontario. Waterloo, Iowa had a low of -5°F yesterday evening. Earliest occurrence of a temperature of -5 or lower on record by five days. Downtown Los Angeles will be near record lows Thanksgiving morning. Rare shot of thundersnow over Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina last night. Lansing, MI, received 8.2″ of snow Saturday, breaking the daily record of 3.5″ set in 1928.
Model update: High temps. for G.R. from the NAM for the next 3 days: 35, 38, 45. High temps. from the GFS starting with today (Mon.) for G.R.: 35. 40, 47, 51, falling to 39, 39, 43, 42. The GFS has the chance of measurable rain at 80% on Thurs. and 82% Friday…so plan on showers and at least occasionally wet roads for travel Thurs. and Fri.
Sunday – Pic. here is the East G.R. High School playoff game yesterday. A couple of games were postponed until today, but many were held in the snow. Today will be a cool day with a chance of snow showers as cold air comes across Lake Michigan (best chance up toward TVC). We also have a chance of snow showers Monday, esp. north of G.R. as a system passes up by Lake Superior. We could see an inch or two accum. north of G.R. Warmer weather will push temps. back to at least the low 50s for later this week (Thurs./Thurs. night). As opposed to the warm first 3 weeks of Nov. – much of the country is waking up to a rather chilly Sunday. At 3 am it’s in the low 30s near Lake Michigan, but on the other side of the lake, it’s +2 at Rochelle IL and +4 at Aurora. Snowfall totals in W. Michigan: Osseo MI reported 12″ of snow and Lake Orion had 11.7″. Here’s current conditions. Much of the country is dry…some showers and t-showers in the Southeast. The models have it cool to midweek with highs mostly in the 30s….then a warm-up to the mid 50s Fri. AM before a cold front shoves us back down into the 30s for next Sat.
Got this message from Boyne Mt./Highlands: “The two largest ski resorts in Michigan are taking advantage of the winter weather, firing up their fleets of Boyne Low-E fan guns for the first snowmaking push of the season. The resorts started making snow Friday night…” (pic. courtesy Boyne Highlands). Links: Here’s Grand Rapids radar and Northern Michigan radar, Milwaukee looping radar. Regional radar and the Updated GRR NWS Short Term Discussion. More links: Northern Indiana radar, Chicago radar, Detroit radar and Milwaukee radar.Here’s College of DuPage Radar Map (pick any radar in the U.S.), College of DuPage Grand Rapids radar, the West Michigan Lightning Tracker, National Lightning Tracker, the local warning/advisory map and the National warning/watch/advisory map, a surface weather map. You can checkout the latest Grand Rapids NWS discussion, the Northern Indiana NWS discussion (includes the Michigan Counties that border Indiana), the discussion for Northern Lower Michigan, and Eastern Lower Michigan. Here’s the Spyglass Condos Weather Station the S. Haven GLERL station, the Muskegon GLERL station, the Grand Haven Steelheaders webcam and weather station, and the weather station at Holland State Park. Check out the links to webcams. Here’s theinfrared satellite loop (night) and the visible satellite loop (daytime), Lake Michigan water temperatures (summer). Here’s recent storm reports from SW Michigan, Northern Michigan, NE Illinois, SE. Wisconsin, Upper Michigan and E. Michigan. Check out the wind and wave height at the South Mid-Lake Michigan Buoy (Apr. to Nov. only), the North Mid-Lake Michigan Buoy (Apr. to Nov. only), the buoy at Big Sable Point near Ludington and the weather station on the beach at St. Joseph. Here’s Michigan wind gusts from MesoWest, data from the MAWN agricultural weather stations and Weather Underground (data at the link from private weather stations). Here’s the Consumers Energy Power Outage Map.
We’ve love to see (and use on the air/online) your pics. of snow, any lingering fall colors, weather or news – you can send us an email at firstname.lastname@example.org or thru ReportIt. Here’s pics. of the G.R. Santa Claus Parade.
Snowfall reports from W. Michigan. Big story tonight will be falling temps. causing roads to ice up. Be careful driving tonight and tomorrow AM. We’ve had accidents on bridges and overpasses. We have had a Winter Storm Warning for the I-94 counties, plus Eaton, Clinton and Ingham counties to the east for up to 6-10″ of snow. All other counties have been under a Winter Weather Advisory for 3-5″ of snow. Both the Warning and Advisory run to 7 am Sunday am. There has also been a Gale Warning for Lake Michigan from 3 pm until 3 am Sunday morning. Wind gusts have hit 56 mph across the lake at Kenosha WI and winds will increase here in Lower Michigan later this PM into this evening. Here’s snowfall totals from SW Michigan, N. Indiana (and the Michigan counties that border Indiana), SE Michigan, N. Lower Michigan, NE Illinois and SE Wisconsin. Grand Rapids radar and regional radar. Here’s current Michigan weather observations. At 3 pm EST Saturday, O’Hare Arpt. reporting visibility of 1/8th mile in heavy snow with a wind gusting to over 30 mph…flight delays. 3 pm Saturday – heavy snow reported at Pontiac and Lansing…moderate snow at Grand Rapids (arpt.), S. Haven, Holland, Marshall and Coldwater. Mid-Lake Michigan buoy shows a wind of 27 mph – gust to 31 mph and a water temp. of 49.1 – air temp. 34.7. G.R. temp. is 31 – Ground warm enough that much of snow melting on roads.
Some snow totals as of noon and shortly before noon – highest along I-94: 6.5″ Portage, 6.2″ Mattawan, 5.2″ Paw Paw, 5″ Benton Harbor, 4.5″ Magician Lake (Cass Co.), 4.5″ Mason (Ingham Co.), 4.0″ Coloma. Ada had 1.7″ by noon and South Bend IN had 3″. Some big snow totals across the lake: 16″ Grays Lake IL, 13″ Wadsworth IL, 10.3″ Elgin IL, 13″ Hanover WI. Snow in Byron Center. VERY interesting comparison Nov. 2014 vs. 2015. 2″ snow officially in G.R. as of 1 pm. Snow totals as of 5 pm: 3.2″ Grand Rapids, 2.8″ Muskegon, 4.2″ Lansing. East Grand Rapids plays in “Blizzard Bowl“. Snow totals for this major early season snow as of 6 pm: Chicago O’Hare 11.2″, Rockford 8.8″, near Chicago Midway: 5.8″. Fire on 50th floor of the Hancock skycraper in Chicago – 5 injured. Ellen’s dog enjoying the snow. MI snow totals: 14.5″ in Howell, 8″ in Cooper, 8″ in Kalamazoo, 5.3″ 4 mi SE of Glenn (Allegan Co.). Pictures from the Santa Claus Parade this AM in G.R. Second biggest Nov. snow ever at O’Hare. it’ll all melt by next Friday PM. 9″ in Oshtemo. Northwest of Chicago. Snowcover makes a big difference…the temp. at 10 pm EST has dipped to -1F at Waterloo IA.
This storm has had a narrow band of very heavy snow from SD to MI – here’s snow totals from Iowa (full screen here). Cold air to follow the snow. Record snowfall in S. Dakota. Flurries down to Dyersburg TN. Trivia: “”Hawkeye” first adopted as name of Burlington IA’s newspaper, who successfully lobbied to have it as state name.
Around G.R., the snow is melting on the pavement, but sticking to the trees and grass. Here’s 3.5″ on the grass in Comstock Park.
Also: A Pre-Thanksgiving storm may bring the first snowflakes of the season to Seattle, WA & Portland, OR. Snow in Fairbanks, Alaska.
Watching Michigan/Penn St. on WOTV4 with hot chocolate. Penn St. crowd in white – same color as visiting Michigan – Penn St. team wearing blue. Clearing snow off the field for the NW/Wisconsin game. Snow at Iowa Stadium. Still some great fall color in Central Park. Q. Which job pays more? – which system generates more electricity? – which electric source is more reliable? (yeah, there is that waste problem). Senators push for heavy ice breaking ship for the Great Lakes.
The Winter Weather Advisory will continue through Sunday at 7 am. Many areas will see 3-6″ snowfall (though some of that may melt on contact with the relatively warm ground. I’ve been watching webcams to our west and you can certainly see more snow on the grass than on the pavement. There will be more snow south than north here in Lower Michigan…then as you go south of I-80 into Indiana and Ohio, you’ll find more of the precipitation in the form of rain. Rain showers are likely in both Ashland (GVSU game) and in Columbus (MSU and Ohio St.). We also have a Gale Warning that will be in effect from 3 pm today to 3 am Sunday AM. The snow that falls is going to melt later this week. The overnight run of the GFS model gives G.R. a high of 52 on Thanksgiving Day and 51 on Black Friday with the chance of rain at better than 50% for both days. It then brings the cold air back in for Saturday the 28th with some light snow and temps. in the low-mid 30s.
<img src=”http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/Loop/centgrtlakes_loop.gif” alt=”Central Great Lakes sector loop” width=”300″ align=”left” />
<img src=”http://wx.woodtv.com/weather/web_loop_radar1.jpg?t=1445309415521″ alt=”” width=”300″ align=”left” /> Here’s radar. Check out local storm reports (snow totals) from SW Michigan, NE Illinois, SE Wisconsin, SW Wisconsin, Iowa and S. Dakota. A narrow band of very heavy snow set up across N. Illinois Friday evening. By midnight, Midway Airport on Chicago’s SW side had 1.3″ of snow, while O’Hare on the NW side had 4.3″. Bull Valley about 32 miles northwest of O’Hare reported 11.5″ of snow by midnight. Monroe WI also had 11″ of snow on the grass by midnight. The highest totals I saw were 18″ at Tea SD and 17″ at Harrisonburg SD. 6.2″ of snow in 2 hrs at Libertyville, IL. Here’s a map of snowfall across Iowa. Look at the snow in Sioux Falls.
Big football double header on WOTV4 today with Michigan at Noon and Michigan St. at 3:30 pm. I’ll be in the G.R. Santa Claus Parade. Parade starts at 9 pm, but WOOD is entry #71 – so we probably won’t start into the parade until 10 pm (hour and a half parade). I’m supposed to race to Hudsonville for their parade at 10 pm, but probably won’t make it due to the late placement in the G.R. Parade. Fortunately, the wind will be fairly light in the AM – last year I was “attacked” by a giant runaway turkey balloon that knocked me into the crowd (actually into some woman’s lap). Matt Giraud and Rachel Reenstra. The Parade is on WOOD TV8. Happy Weekend everyone!
The GRR NWS has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for all of Lower Michigan starting at 1 am and running until 7 am on Sunday. Here’s their latest discussion. The NCEP model snow forecast has the heaviest snow late Fri. night and Saturday along I-94. We’re expecting 3-6″ accumulation. The ground is warm and snow may start melting from underneath, considering temps. will be close to the freezing point. BEH, S. Haven, I-94 corridor could see +6″. Driving is going to get nasty as the colder air comes in and slush freezes Sat. evening.
Snow totals: 18″ near Tea SD, 17″ Harrisburg SD, 16″ Marion SD, 14″ just south-southeast of Sioux Falls SD, 13″ Sanborn IA, 12″ near Yankton SD, 11″ Spencer, Tyndall and Tripp IA. This storm will produce rain showers Saturday in Ohio, so it could be wet for the GVSU game in Ashland and the Michigan State/Ohio State game in Columbus. There was one report of 7″ at Platteville WI, southwest of Madison, but most reports in SW Wisconsin and N. Illnois are in the 2-4″ range so far.
The map here is expected snowfall totals across the Midwest. Current GRR NWS forecast snow map. CFSv2 45-day snowfall forecast…sure doesn’t look like the super-warm El Nino of 1982-83…closer to near normal temps. and slightly below average snowfall. Snowcover makes a difference. Also: Multiple reports of a meteor/fireball over southern IN and central KY. Tornado in Brazil. More video of the twister. 8.41″ of rain in 24 hours at Beaufort, NC. Heavy early-season snow for Beijing and much of Northern China. Gales of November from a ship on Lake Michigan. Banding of clouds. Drone video of Georgia tornado damage. Tornado ripped up high school football field. Cool video of Typhoon In-fa. Sydney, Australia reaches 105.6F – 2nd hottest day ever in Nov. NWS confirms two EF1 tornadoes in Georgia – similar to Portland MI tornado this summer.
Check out this red tornado.
Thanks to Debby Witt for finding these interesting notes: Why Reese’s are usually taxed but Kit Kats aren’t. Father borrows Go-Pro, holds it backwards and accidentally records entire vacation the wrong way as one long selfie. Video of movie characters driving, falling, jumping and being thrown through glass windows. The strangely successful history of people mailing themselves in boxes. Woman wins fight to wear spaghetti strainer on her head for driver-license photo. The dewpoint at Sydney, Australia dropped from 66 to 34 in 30-minutes when the wind shifted from east off the ocean to west out of the arid interior. El Nino fades to La Nina in 2016 – just like previous El Ninos. Christmas day 1982 G.R. had a record high temp. of 65 deg. In 1983, G.R. set a record low temp.of -3 on Christmas Day.
Finally, Happy Birthday to Terri DeBoer.
This map is the probabilty of an inch of snow…the highest chances are where the NWS thinks the heaviest snow will be. You can go here and see what they think the odds are for 2″, 4″, 6″, 8″ or 12″. Here’s the snowfall forecast off NCEP NDFD and the European WRF. And the NWS 11 pm snowfall forecast. All are pretty close with the heaviest snow from G.R. to the north. Check out the latest GRR NWS forecast discussion. This is the 7th greatest snow extent for this date in the Northern Hemisphere of the 48 years of the satellite record and the greatest in the last 10 years. That’s 3,856,000 more square kilometers or 122% of the 48-year average. Ski resorts are opening early in Colorado…and California’s earliest start to the ski season since 2002. Here’s some recent snowfall reports from Colorado. Wow! Check out these winds in Colorado. and video! Today is opening day for Mt. Baker in Washington St., where Pan Dome already has a 63″ base. They report: “Mt. Baker has had some amazing storms come through in the past few weeks, dropping plenty of snow…” Over 4,000 Consumers customers without power in L. Michigan due to strong winds.
This is the South Haven Channel just before noon – you can see the large waves that were crashing across the breakwater. Peak gusts today: 55 mph at the Muskegon shoreline, 53 mph near Woodland, GVSU’s weather station at Muskegon Lake had a peak gust of 52 mph, 51 mph at East Grand Rapids H.S., 50 mph at the S. Haven beach. The Ludington beach reached 47 mph. There was also a 47 mph gust at the Holland Channel, at the airport in Lansing and at the airport in Grand Rapids. Downtown G.R. at GVSU (roof) had a gust to 49 mph this AM, gusts hit 45 mph at Battle Creek, the Holland airport and in Kalamazoo, Jenison, Jackson and Big Rapids had peak gusts of 43 mph and gusts hit 40 mph at Ionia, Pentwater, Gobles, Dorr and at the mid-Lake Michigan buoy. We have a Wind Advisory from Noon until Midnight for the lakeshore, where there could be wind gusts as high as 50 mph. Looks like gusts to 40 mph inland. Remember…cold air coming over relatively warm water will make bigger waves than warm air going over cold water (like in April). We also have Gale Warnings for Lake Michigan. Here’s the GRR NWS discussion. They are calling for 3-6″ of snow for much of the area and that looks right to me.
Snow now covers much of Canada, ice has formed in N. Hudson Bay and lakes north of Churchill (Manitoba) and Great Slave Lake are already frozen. Heavy snow has fallen in Alaska. They’ve also have some extreme early cold in our 49th state. Noatak AK dipped to -38F Weds. AM. Bettles had a high/low of -17/-31 and they have 15″ of snow on the ground. McGrath had a high/low of -20/-28 with 10″ of snow on the ground. Kotzebue tied a record low of -23 that was set back in 1930. Anchorage tied a record low Weds. AM at -8(colder than it got in ANC all last winter!!) and their high of +4 was 23 deg. colder than average. Juneau had 12″ of snow cover and Yakutat reported a 17″ snow depth. The sun set yesterday in Barrow, Alaska, and won’t be rising above the horizon again until Jan. 23, 2016 Also: “Sea Level Rise From Antarctic Ice Melt May Not Be As Bad As Feared.” Antarctic ice extent is well above average. Arctic ice extent is very close to last year on this date and at a considerably greater extent than four years ago. Here’s a comparison of Arctic ice today compared to this date in 2007. Beehives in early season snow in Turkey.
Also: Wettest start to November in the satellite era. Nice sunset. Recurving typhoon “In-fa” may keep trough in the East and keep things cool in the Great Lakes during the first week of December. Another rainbow pic. from yesterday evening. 2014 vs. 2015 in W. Michigan. Tornado damage in GA – there were 3 tornadoes yesterday…one in GA and two in the FL Panhandle. Yesterday Cleveland OH (71) was warmer than Phoenix AZ (66) and New Orleans (65). Tamps hit 89, while the high was 26 in Cut Bank MT. 72-hour rainfall: 9.05 Altus OK, 8.33″ Rolla MO, 7.73″ Nacogdochus TX, 5.72″ Jonesburo AR, 5.10″ Memphis TN, 4.28″ Pompano FL. Peak mountain wind gusts: 137 mph Mission Ridge WA, 101 mph Colburn ID, 100 mph Gold Hill CO. Spokane had a gust to 71 mph and Rapid City SD hit 67 mph. Tornado in Argentina yesterday.
5:45 pm The Muskegon GLERL camera (from NOAA Coastwatch) shows the waves coming over the breakwater at Muskegon (we did see a boat going out into that early this PM). Gusts this PM: 57 mph S. Haven Lighthouse, 56 mph rooftop, downtown G.R. at GVSU, 50 mph Muskegon Lighthouse, 49 mph Grand Rapids, 48 mph Roosevelt Park, 46 mph Holland Airport, 45 mph Holland St. Park, 45 mph Jackson 44 mph Georgetown Twp. (Daybreak Church roof), 43 mph Allendale (GVSU), 43 mph S. Lake Michigan buoy 40 mi. west of Holland – waves 5.9 feet there, 37 mph Battle Creek. Water temp. Reeds Lake (East G.R.) is 51, Lake Michigan water temp. at the mid-Lake Michigan buoy is 50.7. Gale Warnings for Lake Michigan. Windy tomorrow. Accumulating snow on Saturday – much of the area gets several inches…snow will tend to be “wet”. Roads may be more slushy/sloppy during the day then ice up a bit Sat. evening/night as temps. fall. Here’s a snowfall map from the GFS model. At this point, chance of showers on Thanksgiving Day…European model has mid-40s, GFS low 50s. Most all models have showers on Black Friday. Watch us on the news for more.
Wow…many neat rainbow and sunset pics. have come into our station thru ReportIt (here at http://www.woodtv.com), email (email@example.com) and thru the WOODTV and my personal facebook page. These are from my daughter #2, Jenna Caswell and Justin Pake