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The Winter Storm Warning continues for Allegan and Van Buren Counties until 4 pm Saturday and a Winter Weather Advisory for the rest of the lakeshore counties plus Lake, Kalamazoo, Cass and St. Joseph Counties also continues until 4 pm Saturday. In general, just scattered flurries east of US 131 (one last band at 8:30 pm moving thru Barry, Kalamazoo and Branch Counties) with more significant snow showers generally west of US 131. Where snowfall has been substantial – far SW Ottawa, Allegan, Van Buren, Berrien, Cass, far W and NW Kalamazoo Co – those areas have slick spots. There are also Winter Weather Advisories for NW Lower Michigan and Lake-Effect Snow Warnings and Advisories for much of Upper Michigan. Comparison of ice on Lake Michigan on this date in 2014 and 2016, big difference. Here’s the GRR NWS forecast discussion, current weather observations and a surface weather map. Here’s GRR radar and regional radar.
Storm Team 8 is looking for total two-day accumulations of 4-8″ in the heavier bands, mostly in Allegan and Van Buren Counties, with amounts tapering off to maybe an inch east of G.R. Saturday the bands of lake-effect snow will move closer to Lake Michigan as the wind goes more NNW. Inland areas could see a little clearing overnight, a few snow showers Saturday and then partly cloudy skies Saturday night. That will set us up for a very cold night with low temps. Sunday morning near zero inland. We’ve had a strong El Nino this winter. During those winters, we usually see above average temperatures, esp. in December and fewer bouts of Arctic air. This may very well turn out to the the coldest couple days of the winter for parts of the Great Lakes, as temperatures moderate closer to average (high 33, low 19) by the middle of next week and to the upper 40s next Friday.
The wind will stay brisk overnight from the northwest and a little drifting snow is still pssible, mainly near Lake Michigan and in outlying areas. Many roads will likely continue to have slick spots. Temperatures peaked in the low 20s today (Friday).. The Wind Chill Factor should fall to -5 by evening, so it will feel pretty chilly. Temps. will hold in the low-mid teens on Saturday with a brisk NW wind. Saturday night it will become partly cloudy and with diminishing winds, temperatures may dip briefly below zero, especially in areas north and east of G.R. (if you can get more than an inch of snow on the ground). Even with winds turning to the south, Sunday will be a chilly day.
We have now gained an hour of daylight in the evening. Our earliest sunset was 5:08 pm back in the 2nd week of December. Today’s (Thu.) sunset was at 6:08 pm. The sunset is at 6:30 pm on 2/28. The time change (spring ahead) is March 13th and on 3/14 the sunset will be at 7:49 pm. Our sunrise today was at 7:46 am. With the time change, that will move back to 7:56 am on 3/14.
Updated season snowfall totals: Grand Rapids 28.6″, Muskegon 46.9″, Kalamazoo 41.9″, Lansing 21.8″, Hart 48.7″, Fremont 28.8″, Hastings 29.4″, Scottville 42.2″, Big Rapids 30.0″, Grand Haven Wastewater Plant 29.4″, Alma 12.1″.
This is the MODIS Lake Michigan satellite picture from Thursday afternoon. It was clear in Wisconsin. You can see the lake-effect clouds morming over Lake Michigan and moving southeast over Lower Michigan and Northern Indiana. There is ice forming along the shore in WI and IL.
Also: Waterspouts and funnels in Croatia. Two tropical storms northeast of Australia. -74F at Greenland’s Summit Camp. Wildflowers blooming in Death Valley CA. Northern Lights in Norway. Southern Lights in Tasmania. Lake-effect snow at Mexico NY. Huge waves in Croatia washing fish ashore. Snow in Cass Co. MI. Overnight wind chills approaching -70°F on top of Mt. Washington. Light pillars in Minnesota Thurs. evening. Lenticular clouds in Patagonia. The quiet sun.
Check out these two pictures taken 26 hours apart (from NOAA Coastwatch). This is the pier (technically a breakwater) at South Haven, Michigan. The picture on the left was taken at 8:03 am Tuesday (2/9). There’s some old ice against the metal base of the catwalk (which by the way is the original catwalk placed in 1925 – one of only four piers in Michigan to still have the original catwalk). The picture on the right was taken the next day, Wednesday (2/10). Dozens of large ice balls have mysteriously appeared on the pier. I would guess that some of them are heavy enough that you would have a hard time lifting them. Note that there are more ice balls on the right side of the pier than on the left side. The camera is facing east. The wind during these 26 hours was generally northwest at around 20 mph. On the left is the outlet of the Black River and out of view, farther to the left is another parallel pier (breakwater – it stops, breaks the water). While you might think the water would be calmer in the channel, that may not be the case here at the end of the pier. During this time, heavier lake-effect snow was falling inland. Often the heaviest lake-effect snow is not at the shore, but farther inland in a single or multiple bands.
Now this picture is from 5:03 pm Weds. afternoon. Wow! The balls have been multiplying! Look close and you’ll see more ice balls in the water to the right. Check out this video of ice balls in Lake Michigan from Jan. 2014. After a relatively mild winter, cold air covers the Great Lakes. Bits of ice freeze on the surface. As water splashes on them, that water freezes and the ice chunk starts to get bigger. The action of the waves causes the ice chunk to spin. The ice chunk also rubs against other ice chunks, especially near the shore and at the pier. This action makes the ice balls round. We’ve seen ice balls that are quite round and weigh over 100 pounds. Eventually the waves push the ice balls up on the pier and on shore.
While the pictures are nice to see, it’s dangerous to go out on the piers in winter. You can see beautiful pictures of the Great Lakes in winter by checking out the GLERL cameras from NOAA Coastwatch.
Here’s where you can see the latest percent of ice cover on Lake Michigan (12% as I write this) and the Great Lakes (8% as I write this). Check out this graph of historical ice cover on the Great Lakes. Note that since 1973, the greatest ice cover on the Great Lakes was in 1979. However, the recent winters of 2013-14 (2nd highest) and the winter of 2014-15 (4th highest) produced very high ice extent on the Great Lakes. This contributed to lower evaporation, and has been a factor in the fast recovery of Great Lakes water levels, which are now all well above the historic averages for February.
Finally, here’s a picture from the GLERL cam which is 2.75 miles east of downtown Chicago at the water intake. You can see on the west side of Lake Michigan, the sky is clear and the sun is shining. The satellite picture shows the clouds forming over Lake Michigan as the cold air (temps. in the teens) moves over the relatively warmer water. The air over the water warms, lifts up and produces the lake-effect snow that accumulated to over a foot deep in parts of Western Lower Michigan.
Only 3 counties remain in the Winter Storm Warning…that’s Ottawa, Allegan and Van Buren. Kalamazoo, Oceana and Mason Counties have been downgraded to an advisory. The Warnings and Advisories end at 10 am. Snowshowers are now mainly west of a line from Hart to Spring Lake to Allegan to just north of Sturgis. Another 1-3″ of additional snow could fall west of that line for the rest of tonight and later today. Inland just a few flurries. The warning and advisory will expire at 10 am. Keep in mind that winter warnings and advisories go by county and in situations like this, not everyone in the county gets Warning or Advisory criteria snow. The heaviest snow in Ottawa Co. will fall near Holland and you are not going to see 6-12″ of snow in Marne. Here’s GRR radar. We should warm up late next week with a day or two above 40 possible toward the end of the week.
Quick model update: The European model takes the 850mb temp. for G.R. down to -26 early Sat. AM – that’s pretty cold air! That model has about 3 1/2″ of snow coming late Tues. night into Weds. and then rain and temps. approaching 50 on 2/20. Way to early to pin that down. For Saturday AM, the NAM has a temp. of 7 with a 15 mph wind for G.R. and the GFS has 4 for a temp. with a 10 mph wind. Either way…that’s cold.
New Snow: 14″ near Fennville and near Allegan,10″ Bloomingdale and Onekema, 9″ Alamo (NW Kalamazoo Co.), near S. Bend IN and east of Pullman, 8″ Kaleva (Manistee Co.), 7″ S. Bend, Sumnerville (Cass Co.), Edwardsburg, 6″ Holland, Pullman, Hamilton, 5″ Allegan, Scottville, Ludington, 4″ Paw Paw, Pine Grove (Van Buren Co.), Suttons Bay, 2″ Kalamazoo, dusting in G.R. The most new snow I could find in the U.P. was 16″ at Carlshend in Marquette Co. Snow on the ground: 21″ Mancelona, 20″ Lake Ann, 13″ Lake City.
This is for significant snow showers with NW flow over Lake Michigan, enough wind for drifting snow and slippery roads. Here’s NCEP forecast snowfall thru Friday AM (G.R. 3″, Muskegon 7″, S. Haven 14″). The heaviest snow over the next 5 days will likely be along the lakeshore south of Holland. I think Allegan, Van Buren, Berrien and W. Cass Counties might get the most snow, which would be in the 6-16″ category. Inland areas will get much less snow, but enough to turn the ground white and cause slippery spots on the roads. Here’s the GRR NWS forecast discussion. Here’s local radar and regional radar. There will also be snow east of US 127 from the low pressure system with some enhancement from Lake Huron. There was a Winter Weather Advisory for the Thumb Area (east of Saginaw and Flint) for 3-7″ of new snow. There was a Winter Storm Warning for NW Lower Michigan (Wexford, Benzie, Manistee, Leelanau and Grand Traverse Counties) for up to a foot of new snow. Finally, there is a Lake-Effect Snow Warning for the Western U.P. and the Keweenaw Peninsula where up to 10″ of snow is likely. There were Gale Warnings for Lake Michigan. Arctic air from Weds. through Sunday…coldest day Saturday, which could very well be the coldest day we’ll see this winter. Arctic air rules this weekend from the Great Lakes and Northeast into the Mid-Atlantic states.
This is the GRR NWS impact map, which looks pretty good. I can’t say exactly where the heaviest snow will be…but Allegan, Van Buren and Berrien County should see heavier snow, along with Oceana Co. north to Leelanau Co. The least snow will be in he middle of the state along US 127.
Snow on the ground: 48″ Painesdale (in the U.P.), 40″ Atlantic Mine, 38″ near Hancock, 36″ Ironwood, 27″ Grand Marais, 24″ Marquette (airport) and Ishpeming, 21″ Mancelona, 20″ Munising and Lake Ann, 19″ E. Jordan, 18″ Fife Lake, Rogers City and Benzonia, 17″ “Gaylord, East Jordan, 15″ S. Ste. Marie and Newberry, 14″, 13″ Lake City, 11″ Cheboygan and Traverse City, 10″ Houghton Lake and Onekema, 9″ Alpena, Alamo and Iron Mt., 8″ Kavela, 7″ Manistique and Mullet Lake, 6″ Holland, Scottville, 4″ ‘Reed City and Hart and 2″ Big Rapids, 1” Grand Ledge and Lansing. Paradise, Washingon reports 141″ of snow on the ground (nearly 12 feet!). They do keep the parking lot clean at Paradise (like during daylight only).
Also: Snow and wind in Georgia. 360-degree view of Mars from the Rover. The water level of Shasta Lake, the biggest reservoir in California, was up 7″ yesterday and is up 57.8 feet in the last 4 weeks. Cool, breezy and dry for Mardi Gras in New Orleans – afternoon temps. in the low 50s. Record high of 88 on Mon. at Los Angeles. Here’s high temps. from Mon. Warm in the West – high temps: 85 Phoenix AZ, 84 San Diego, 82 Ukiah CA (record high), 77 Brookings OR, 73 San Francisco, 59 Seattle. It was cool in Florida – here’s low temps. Mon. AM: 29 Tallahassee, 32 Gainesville, 34 Jacksonville, 37 Orlando, 39 Sarasota, 40 Clearwater. Meanwhile in Alabama: Brian Peters is out snow flurry chasing this morning. Here is the live stream: https://youtu.be/WKW1uniBKlg. (guess gas is cheap…chasers have to chase!). Radar shows snow on the East Coast.
The high temp. has been less than or greater than 40 on 6 of the last 10 days. We have had 11 days in 2016 with high temps. in the low-mid 40s. Over the last 33 days, we’ve had just 12.5% of possible sunshine. Season snowfall as of 5 pm Weds: Muskegon 46.6″, Kalamazoo 39.0″, Grand Rapids 27.9″, Lansing 21.4″.
Happy Birthday to the National Weather Service. Interesting article here on how rare is thundersnow. Nashville TN looking like Siberia. WOW, LOOK AT THIS…VERY STRONG WINDS TOSSING AROUND THE CHAIRS ON A SKI LIFT IN THE ALPS (SWITZERLAND?). More wind damage in Europe. Really cool lightning seen from space. Gigantic dust devil in Australia. Snow in Alabama this AM. NYC hasn’t reached zero in 22 years…they’ve got a chance Sunday AM. WOW! Look at this wave!! Bald eagle not thrilled with this weather pattern. Peak winds in Europe. DON’T DO THIS!!
Check out this wave…and this wave…ice in Anniston, Alabama. Very strong winds on the island of Corsica. Strong winds cause coastal flooding in Europe. Satellite view showing the lake-effect clouds. Heavy lake-effect snow in Allegan Co. Another pic. of snow in Allegan Co. 12″ new snow in Allegan Co. Tornado! Debris! GIANT waves push cars around in Croatia. Shenandoah Mountain sunset. Sunset in Boulder CO.
This is a surface weather map for early this Monday afternoon. Low pressure is located over Northern Michigan today, giving us cloudy skies and periods of light snow or flurries. Temperatures will still be at or above freezing, so most roads will just be occasionally wet. Colder air starts to arrive Monday Evening/Night and that’s when we could start to see some slick spots on area roads. The overnight NAM computer model forecasts high temps. for G.R. for Mon., Tue. and Weds. of 37, 30 and 19. The GFS computer model forecast highs for the rest of the week for G.R. (starting with today – Mon.) of 39, 33, 24, 23, 23, 22. The GFS-plot doesn’t have us warmer than 21 from Weds. AM thru Sun. PM with daytime temps. next weekend much of the day in the mid teens. Tuesday we’ll be at or a little below freezing and we should stay well below freezing from Weds. thru next Sunday. The cold air will trigger lake-effect and lake-enhanced snow…with the heaviest snow bands west of a line from Zeeland to Kalamazoo to Sturgis and perhaps across parts of Oceana and N. Newaygo Counties to the north. Inland areas will get less snow because the flow will be more NW to WNW. The more significant snow may extend into N. Indiana, esp. LaPorte Co. NW Michigan should also see significant lake-effect. Winds Tues. and Weds. will be around 15-20 mph which will bring wind chills down to 5-10 above on Weds. It could also get a little windy next Sun. – Mon. I’m thinking the groundhog will not be available to the media late this week. Also on the map above, you’ll notice a warm, dry ridge of high pressure covering the western U.S. and a snowstorm brushing southeast New England. Here’s the National Hazards Map. Strong winds could cause near-blizzard conditions in parts of the MN and IA. Here’s current conditions in Michigan and GRR radar. Here are wind and snow forecast maps from the NWS for the U.S. Winter Weather Advisory for the Western U.P. for up to 10″ of new snow. It looks very cold next weekend. The models may not be cold enough with the Arctic air that comes down for Sat. and Sun.
This is the NWS impact map, showing the highest impacts from snow Tues. and Weds. in the lakeshore counties, especially W Allegan, Van Buren and Berrien Counties (I would have made the SW corner of Berrien Co. yellow as well, down to S. Bend).
What do Owen Daniels of the Denver Broncos and Bill Steffen have in common…both have degrees in Atmospheric Science from the Univ. of Wisconsin.
Also: Buoy 62081 (SW of Ireland) as of 11 pm EST showed 46.9 ft wave heights!! From Gas Buddy, Patrick DeHaan: Midwest gasoline inventories spike over 61 million barrels, a jump of 2.4 MMbbl. Gas prices will stay relatively low. Pretty sunset at the Washington Monument. The Super Bowl seen from the International Space Station. Cost of a beverage at the Super Bowl: Wine: $25 Beer: $13 Water: $7. Perfectly-timed Super Bowl flyover. Wildflowers starting to bloom in S. Texas. Cold air will push snow flurries down to central Alabama. Sunday – 2.25″ of rain at Cape Hatteras NC, along with a 52 mph wind gust…1.67″ at Wilmington NC – where they have had 5.98″ of rain so far this Feb. (5.09″ above avg.). Iowa is now 24-1 in their last 25 Big Ten football and basketball games. Light pillars in Alaska. Gust to 78 mph at Wasta SD. Chilly week to be on vacation in Florida. Look at the drifts in Caspar WY after 60 mph wind gusts. Lenticular cloud at sunrise in Colorado. Average temperature in NYC through the first 6 days of Feb. is 45.0 F. Last year, it was only 25.4. Warm high temps. Sunday: 82 Los Angeles, 80 San Diego, 79 Phoenix, 70 Sacramento, 68 San Francisco, 74 Brookings OR, 62 Portland OR, 78 McAllen TX. Cold high temps. Sunday: 58 Tampa FL, 37 Wilmington NC. Indian man believed to be first known person killed by a meteorite. Cam Newton refuses to answer questions and storms out after Super Bowl loss. Strong winds in the U.K.
The weather should be mostly sunny and warm for today’s Super Bowl, mostly sunny – low 70s. Temp. at 1 pm Pacific Time/4 pm Eastern Time in San Francisco is 66. The Stadium is at the south end of San Francisco Bay in the City of Santa Clara (next door to San Jose). Pic. above from KRON. Here in Michigan, this will be the warmest day of the week, with afternoon temps. in the low-mif 40s. What’s left of our snow is melting. While there is a chance of a light late afternoon rain or snow shower, most or all of the day will be dry.
3 pm temps. – 46 Lansing and Kalamazoo, 45 G.R. and Battle Creek, 41 Muskegon…little cooler to the north with 34 at Mackinac Is. and 30 at S. Ste. Marie. Some sprinkles have formed over Lake Michigan and you may see a light shower or sprinkle late this afternoon or evening. Here’s G.R. radar, regional radar, current conditions and a surface map.
Model data from Sat. night: The NAM has high temps. for G.R. for today, tomorrow, Tues. at 42, 37, 27. The GFS highs for G.R. starting with today are: 43, 39, 31, 24, 23, 23, 27 (cool air is coming). The European model is colder for Friday thru Monday and may very well be right. We’ll have quite a few hours of snow (mainly light) from Monday through Thursday, but periods of heavier snow are likely in favorable lakeshore bands…especially west of a line from Zeeland to Kalamazoo to Sturgis and across Oceana, Mason and perhaps Lake Counties. Favorable NW lake-flow bands in NW Michigan should see a lot of snow as well (6 to +12″). This cold shot is going all the way down to Florida. Should make mid-upper 30s down to Orlando. Bottom line…get ready…cold and snow on the way starting Tuesday.
Also – Check out the cars falling thru the ice on Geneva Lake in Wisconsin. As of Sat. evening…Great Lakes ice cover at 7.7%, Lake Michigan ice cover at 9%. – record high temp. of 54 at Bismarck ND on Sat. At 11 pm, it was warmer in Bismarck than in San Antonio TX – however, that will change – there are Blizzard Warnings up for the Dakotas and W. Minnesota. More snow for Boston and S. New England. Wave clouds over Chicago. Sunset at the Jefferson Memorial in D.C. Taiwan E-Quake causes the Earth to split wide open…Up to 20 fatalities, +100 still missing and 400 injured.
They couldn’t have ordered a better day for the Super Bowl. It should be mostly sunny with temperatures around the low 70s at kickoff. They get days in June that aren’t this nice.
This is a picture of the upper level winds (500 mb – about 18,000 feet above the surface). This map is valid for 4 pm Sunday during the game. It shows a BIG ridge over the West Coast. Upper level ridges like this often bring warmer than average temperatures and fair weather. Troughs tend to be cool, cloudier with a better chance of precipitation. The trough is digging into the Great Lakes and that will usher in cooler air and precipitation, which will be snow after a mixed start Sunday PM.
The East Coast storm dropped 4.6″ of snow on New York City and Boston. Some heavier amounts: 13″ Woodbridge CT, 12.5″ Worchester MA, 12″ Terryville NY, 11.5″ Bar Harbor ME. At one point 85,000 customers in the NE were without power. The snow got into SE NH, disrupting some election campaigning. 10.5″ fell at Dover NH. 140 flights were cancelled. A couple of trees were downed and 140 flights were cancelled. The wind was only gusting to 20-25 mph at the surface when that crane toppled in NYC. Cranes certainly should be able to tolerate that. Strong winds hit the Pacific NW with gusts to 62 at Tillamook OR and 60 at Cape Disappointment WA. Forks WA received 1.58″ of rain and Paradise in Mt. Rainier Nat. Park picked up another 5″ of snow, bringing their snow depth to 141″ – that’s 3″ shy of 12 FEET!).
Overnight model data: High temps. for Sat./Sun./Mon off the NAM for G.R: 35, 41, 36 and from the GFS: 36, 42, 37. Beginning Weds. the GFS has highs for G.R. of 23, 23, 27, 22…so a pretty cool end of the week. With cold air coming across Lake Michigan, we’ll see persistent lake-effect snow showers with some decent (6-12″) accumulations possible in the heavier bands by the end of the week. Currently we have 1″ of snow on the ground in G.R., Lansing, Kalamazoo, Fremont, Saranac, Hastings and Grand Ledge, 2″ at Muskegon and Big Rapids, 3″ in Hart, 6″ in the woods at White Cloud, 7″ at Scottville, 11″ at Houghton Lake, Lake City, Traverse City and Cheboygan, 13″ at S. Ste. Marie, 14″ Harbor Springs and Benzonia, 17″ in the woods at Kalkaska, 18″ Gaylord, 19″ E. Jordan, 20″ Munishing, 22″ Marquette, 27″ Ironwood, 30″ SE of Houghton and 42″ on the ground at Painesdale.
We move to Daylight Saving Time on March 13. We’ve gained 53 minutes of daylight in the evening since Dec. 9 and 20 minutes in the AM since the first week of Jan.
Thanks to everyone who sent National Weatherperson’s Day greetings to us at Storm Team 8. Friday AM, I was the emcee of MathCounts at GVSU in downtown G.R. Wow! Are there a lot of smart kids in W. Michigan. The 3 top winning schools were Forest Hills Central, Forest Hills Northern and Forest Hills Eastern. It was a clean sweep! The top individual won a $1,000 scholarship from GVSU. I was told that this was the 28th consecutive year I’ve been the emcee of our local MathCounts competition.
5:30 pm Saturday: High temperatures today: 35 G.R. and Holland, 36 Muskegon and Battle Creek, 37 in Kalamazoo. The GFS has the temp. in G.R. basically in the teens from Weds. PM thru mid afternoon on the 14th. The lows get down around 5-10 and highs 15-20. The Euro. has temps. in the low 20s Weds. PM…then teens for highs beyond that thru the 14th…in fact, we’re only at about 10 above the afternoon of the 13th, next Sat. The models still forecast a general 3-5″ of snow for everyone with up to 12″ in the most favorable lake snowbands starting Monday thru the end of the week. The fluffy snow will drift some, so we’ll have to get used to some slick spots on areas roads this week.
A magnitude 6.4 earthquake caused considerable damage at the southern end of the island of Taiwan. Officially, 7 fatalites, but that number will climb, with 318 injured. One of the fatalities was a 10-day old infant. At least 8 large buildings have collapsed. Hundreds of people have been trapped. Pic. may be Tainan, a city of 2 million. Here’s an overhead shot of the big apartment building that has collapsed. 123 people have been rescued from one collapsed building, another 37 from another building. Look at this picture! Video of rescues (brave firefighters). More pics. More pics. Baby carried from the debris. Another picture of a huge building collapse. Look at this. Drone footage here. The earthquake was centered 6.2 miles beneath the surface. After a quake like this, there is danger from aftershocks and from fires. Also 5.1 magnitude earthquake in Nepal and large volcano erupting in Japan (video with lightning at link). Also 3.4 mag. e-quake in Oklahoma and 2.7 mag. just west of L.A. Now USGS reports a M4.9
#earthquake 97km NNE of Kiunga, Papua New Guinea.
This is the Muskegon GLERL cam from 6 pm Thurs. Lakeshore areas got to see a few minutes of sunshine before the sun set this evening. In the picture, you can see some high clouds on the horizon that are coming east across the lake…so most of us will stay mostly cloudy today (Fri.) with a chance of just a few snow flurries. Updated season snowfall: Lansing 19.6″, Grand Rapids 27.6″, Kalamazoo 31.6″ and Muskegon 46.5″. Snow on the ground: trace in Gr. Rapids, 1″ Lansing, Fremont, Flint, 2″ Muskegon, Big Rapids, 3″ Hart, 5″ Escanaba, 6″ Reed City, 7″ Scottville, 8″ Charlevoix, Manistique, 9″ Alpena, 10″ Rogers City, 11″ Houghton Lake, Cheboygan, Lake City, 12″ Traverse City, 13″ S. Ste. Marie, Grayling, 14″ Harbor Springs, Benzonia, 16″ Fife Lake, 18″ Gaylord, 20 E. Jordan, 21″ Munising, 22″ Ishpeming, 23″ Marquette, Ironwood, 25″ Grand Marais, 30″ Big Bay, 31″ just southeast of Houghton, 40″ Painesdale.
Here’s pics. from today from the camera at the water intake on in Lake Michigan east of downtown Chicago and also the GLERL camera at Alpena (from NOAA Coastwatch). No ice in Chicago, but lots of ice at Alpena. Great Lakes ice cover is now at 7.2% (as of 1 pm Thurs.). There is an 8.8% ice cover on Lake Michigan as I write this. Look at the ice we had on the Great Lakes in February last year.
ALSO: Check out the video of an EF-1 tornado that passed right over a high school in Tennessee (if it was an EF-4 or 5, the camera would probably be in N. Carolina now). The good stuff starts about 2 minutes into the video. You get about 6 different shots from 6 different cameras around the school. Note that the tornado is rain-wrapped and would be more difficult to see as it approached. The twister occurred at 5 pm, when the school and school property were virtually deserted. It would have been more dangerous had the storm occurred earlier when the school was in session. Tornado debris flew 30-40 miles.
Quite a temperature spread at 3 am. Coldwater is calm and 13 deg…Muskegon is 33 with a 10 mph wind coming in off the open waters of Lake Michigan. Forecast summary: Mostly cloudy today (breaks) with a few periods of flurries (most of the time it will be dry…light winds…low-mid 30s. Saturday – Chance of a little light snow or flurries…best chance north and northwest of G.R. where there could be a dusting (an inch near US 10?)…not much. Sunday will be the warmest day, near 40 in the PM with a chance of a rain or snow shower in the PM. At least light snow is likely Monday through at least Wednesday. As I mentioned earlier, even if the snow is light, the long-duration will cause snow to accumulate and those areas that get the best lake-effect with a WNW flow (Berrien, Van Buren…maybe W. Allegan…Oceana, Mason…the higher elevations of NW Michigan could easily see 6-12″ over the period…with snow totals diminishing to 1-4″ as you go to Central and Eastern Lower Michigan). All the lakeshore counties should anticipate enough snow to plow. Winds will occasionally ramp up to 15-20 mph (stronger at Lake Michigan). With the colder temps., the snow will become more fluffy and we will likely get some drifting. Weds. and Thurs. could be the coldest days with PM temps. in the low 20s – cold, but not drastically cold for early Feb. and it may stay below freezing from Monday night thru Saturday AM next week.
And…snowstorm for Baltimore, Newark, New York and Boston. SPC’s new violent tornado page. View of the fireball meteor that flew down Lake Michigan (I’ve been on the roof of the building where that video was shot).
This is the 6-10 day temperature forecast from the Climate Prediction Center. The map shows the probabilities of colder than average (in blue) and warmer than average (in red) temperatures. This map covers February 9-13. There will be an upper ridge over the Western U.S., favoring warmer than average temperatures and an upper level trough in the Eastern U.S., favoring colder than average temperatures. There is much less ice on Lake Michigan (all the Great Lakes) than the past couple of winters. Looking at records since 1973 for the Great Lakes, we had the 2nd greatest ice extent in 2014 and the 4th greatest ice extent in 2015. Lake Michigan set a record for ice extent in early March 2014 at 93.29% ice cover. Last year the ice extent topped out at 73% – well above average. The extensive and lengthy ice cover during the winter helped to bring up Great Lakes water levels, which are now well above the historic average. With less ice on the lakes, the potential remains for lake-effect snow. Note how the model (pic. on left at this link) looks like the CPC prediction. Big ridge in the West means record high temps. for Southern California. Looks warm (maybe 70s) at the Super Bowl. The GFS has the coldest air around Weds./Thurs. of next week…the European has the coldest air around Fri. night (13th).
The precipitation forecast for next week has Michigan in the green – higher probabilities for above average precipiiation…and with colder temps…that means snow. Of course, lake-effect snow varies quite a bit with the direction of the wind – where the heavier bands will set up. I’d be looking first at Van Buren and Berrien Counties for heavier lake-effect, possibly Cass, western Kalamazoo, Allegan…but too early to tell. This pattern should also give heavy lake-effect snows to Northwest Lower Michigan and the Upper Michigan lake-effect snowbelts.
BTW, unlike Punxsutawney Phil – our own Grattan Twp. groundhog (NE Kent Co.) did manage to climb up through the frost on 2/2 to see his shadow…I think our local groundhog has it right. Winter’s not over yet. BTW, Lake Michigan ice cover peaked at 19.26% on Jan. 21 and Great Lakes ice extent peaked at 15.83% on Jan. 22. Wind tends to break up the ice. I think we’ll exceed both of those numbers later this month.
Also: Four relatively long tornado tracks in MS Tuesday PM – lots of EF2 damage. Here’s the Fort Stewart tornado. More video of the Fort Stewart tornado. I-80: Closed BOTH DIRECTIONS due to winter conditions between Laramie and Cheyenne, Wyoming. I-25: Closed BOTH DIRECTIONS due to winter conditions between Cheyenne and Wheatland, Wyoming. At 12:01 am the temp was 54 F in Burlington VT, breaking the old record for Feb 4 of 52 F from 1991. The Arctic Arrow is pointing right down Lake Michigan. NBC News called out for saying tornadoes Tuesday came “without warning”. That was false.
Sunshine: In the last four weeks (28 days), Grand Rapids has had only 11.7% of possible sunshine. So far in 2016 (34 days), we have had 14 days with not a single minute of sunshine, another 8 days with 1% to 9% sunshine (so that’s 22 of 34 days with less than 10% sunshine)…only 4 days with 50% or more sunshine and only 1 day with more than 75% sunshine. This is typical of years with a strong El Nino…you get lots of clouds and with the clouds that keep us warmer at night, you get fewer really cold mornings. So far this winter, the coldest temp. in G.R. is +2. The coldest temp. in the winter of 1982-83 was +3. In the strong El Nino winter of 1997-98, the coldest temp. all winter was +1. We had over a foot of snow in March in both of those winters. In 1998, the warmest temp. from March 1-23 was 43 and we had 13.8″ of snow in the first 14 days of March. In 1983, we had record high temps. in the first week of March, then 12.9″ of snow from March 20-29.
This is the Muskegon shore early this PM. The wind there is a steady 29 mph – peak gust 37 mph…not much ice, big waves. There are a few light rain/snow showers, mostly north of a line from Holland to G.R. to Alma…any rain showers go over to snow showers as the colder air comes in. Most areas are seeing wind gusts to 25-35 mph this afternoon…those winds will diminish a little this evening/tonight. Everyone is above freezing, so roads just occasionally wet to damp. Temps. will fall below freezing tonight, so watch for an ice spot. We’ll see an occasional snow shower or flurry through tomorrow…nothing much. The weekend looks uneventful. However, that changes on Monday with colder air starting to move in and a combination of general weather systems and lake-effect/enhanced snow. We should see about 1-3″ on Monday with a steady period of on and off snow showers through much of the work week. The flow goes W/NW so those areas that get decent lake-effect snow with a pattern like that (Berrien, Van Buren Counties for example) could see +6″ snowfall. A general 4-8″ snowstorm may pass just south of us across IL/IN/OH around the 15th.
Snowfall totaled 4-11″ across the U.P yesterday. Here’s some Michigan snow depths this (Wed.) AM: 38″ Painesdale, 32″ Bergland Dam, 29″ Big Bay, 28″ Ironwood (10.5″ new), 24″ Grand Marais, 20″ Marquette (airport, 6.2″ new), 19″ Gaylord and Mancelona, 17″ E. Jordan, 16″ Fife Lake, 14″ Benzonia, 13″ Grayling, 12″ Houghton Lake, S. Ste. Marie, Traverse City, Rogers City, 11″ Alpena, 9″ Iron Mt. and Manistique, 7″ Reed City, 6″ Scottville, 3″ Hart, 2″ Muskegon and Big Rapids (B.R. got 1.05″ of precipitation yesterday with a temp. most of the time at 33 degrees- that was very close to a major ice storm), 1″ Fremont, trace in G.R.
Here’s storm total rainfall/precipitation from Tuesday. Note the swatch of heaviest rain across Lower Michigan. Some rainfall totals: 1.55″ Grand Rapids (4th biggest midnight-to-midnight rainfall ever in G.R. in February), 1.47″ Alma, 1.37″ East G.R., 1.25″ Muskegon, 1.18″ Holland, 1.02″ Grand Haven, 1.00″ Fremont. We had a signficant apartment building fire in Grand Haven started by lighting. We see lightning in February about once every 2-3 years.
More after the news…I’ll talk more about the cold and snow for next week.
We had record daily rainfall in West Michigan yesterday. My records (not official) show that the 1.55″ we received in G.R. was the 4th highest midnight-to-midnight rainfall ever in G.R. The 1.25″ of rain in Muskegon was the 9th greatest midnight-to-midnight rainfall. The old precipitation record for G.R. was 0.62″ in 2011 – that was the Groundhog Day Blizzard. We had a daily record 11.1″ of snow that day (after a daily record 6.1″ on Feb. 1, 2011). Feb. 2011 brought 38.2″ of snow to G.R., the second highest of any February. We came close to a significant winter storm. The high temp. in G.R. was just 36. Another five degrees colder and we could have had a significant snow or freezing rain event. Nearly 5″ of snow fell in Cadillac. An inch of snow fell across Oceana, Newaygo and Mecosta Counties. Thunderstorms were reported over more than half of the area – with thundersnow at Cadillac. Some storms produced small hail. Wind gusts hit 46 mph at Muskegon and on top of the press box at East G.R. High School. Here’s snowfall totals from N. Lower Michigan, Wisconsin, up to 17″ in Nebraska. This storm produced daily record snowfalls for Feb. 1 and Feb. 2 at Denver.
We’ll stay cloudy today with a chance of a stray light rain shower changing to a light snow shower in the PM as the air cools. Temperatures will be highest early – and fall a few degrees during the PM. Winds will turn to the southwest, then west and increase back to 15-25 mph. Additional snow showers are likely Weds. night and Thurs. With temps. below freezing, some slick spots will develop for Weds. night and Thurs. The greatest snow accumulation may come next Tuesday as colder air arrive sending temps. back to the low-mid 20s for the middle of next week.
The water level of Shasta Lake (biggest reservior in CA) is up another 1.54 ft. in the last 24 hours and up 56 feet in the last month. Here’s severe weather reports from Tuesday, including 9 tornadoes (most of which look like they came from the same t-storm). Here’s a family that took shelter as a tornado came right over their house. Storm total snowfall: 40″ Wolf Creek Pass CO, 33″ Glenrock WY. Rainfall: 2.33″ Jackson MS, 1.60 Memphis TN, 1.58″ Evansville IN, 1.41″ Chicago. Groundhog Day sunset at Key West FL. Releasing a weather balloon when the wind is gusting to 60 mph. 100th anniversary of a 30″ snowstorm in Seattle, Washington.
Feb. 2 is Groundhog Day. Legend has it that if the groundhog sees his shadow this morning, there will be six more weeks of winter. If he doesn’t, winter is pretty much over (which is really never the case on Feb. 2 in Michigan). It all began in Germany with a badger. The Pennsylvania Dutch (who are really German) didn’t see any badgers when they arrived in Pennsylvania, so they gave the prognosticating assignment to the local groundhog, or woodchuck (BTW, someone figured out how much wood a woodchuck could chuck). The most famous groundhog is Punxsutawney Phil. Phil’s been giving us the long-range forecast from Gobbler’s Knob in Pennsylvania since 1887. Phil even has his own beer. Phil correctly did predict six more weeks of winter last year on 2/2. Feb. 2 is also Candlemas Day. An old saying goes: “Half the wood and half the hay, better have left on Candlemas Day”. Of course, that means that if you have half your winter provisions left at this point…you’ll make it through the winter. Side note: You may have seen the movie Groundhog Day, with actor Bill Murray playing a TV weatherman. Bill and I went to St. Joseph’s Elementary School in Wilmette, Illinois. We caddied together, though he caddied mostly at Indian Hill C.C. and I caddied mostly at Westmoreland C.C. He’s one year older than me, and lived about 4 blocks from me on Elmwood Ave. Do you remember the Groundhog Day snowstorm we had in 2011? Here’s a nice write-up on the storm from the NWS in Chicago. Here’s video, pics. and thundersnow from that storm. This is what happened to Lakeshore Dr. in Chicago. Here’s what I wrote about that storm.
It looks like a good shot of Arctic air for the middle of next week. The GFS takes our 850 mb temp. down to -25C. a week from Sat…the European isn’t that cold…down to -18C on Thurs., which would still be a chilly several days with the potential for at least lake-effect snow showers with daytime temps. in the upper teens to maybe low 20s. The GFS might give us highs around 10-12 around the 13th, but that’s far away. In any case, with the El Nino, cold air masses don’t like to hang around forever and temps. would likely moderate toward the end of the month.
Note – Punxsutawney Phil, the most famous of groundhogs, did NOT see his shadow this AM – releasing a statement: “no shadow cast, an early spring forecast”. It was only 22 deg. in Punxsutawney this AM and they’ll have 2 or 3 cold days next week, as will we in Michigan. Here is was mostly cloudy in W. Michigan and partly cloudy in E. Michigan, so mixed signals from the local groundhogs. Lots of frost this morning in W. Michigan – when I left the station around 3 am, I had to do a lot of scraping before I started driving. Snow is falling in W. Iowa and the state of Iowa is getting wind gusts of 25 to 40 mph. Our winds will gradual increase, peaking from mid-afternoon into early tonight.
Cool video of nacreous clouds over Scotland. China snow strands “nearly 100,000” at Guangzhou Station. The odds of winning 6 coin tosses in a row is 1 in 64. Glad I’m not driving thru this.
9:10 pm – Lots of lightning for Feb. 2…the first batch moved mainly across Muskegon, Newaygo and Mecosta Co. during the late afternoon – but there was lightning up to Cadillac. We had half a dozen claps of thunder downtown. It’s not impossible there could be some small hail with any of these cells. Small hail was reported in Grand Rapids and Comstock Park. Here’s GRR looping radar (heaviest precip. over our area during the next 5-6 hours). Here’s regional looping radar. And WOOD’s Lightning Tracker. Up to an inch of snow and sleet was reported at Big Rapids and at Mears in Oceana Co. Thundersnow reported in MI, IA, WI, NE. Possible lightning strike at an apartment complex in Grand Haven with a fire. We sent a photographer. 3″ snow at Cadillac. At 9 pm, just 34 in G.R., 33 in Ioia..58 in Lafayette IN. Grand Rapids (0.70″) and Muskegon (0.91″) have set daily rainfall records so far today. 0.83″ in East G.R. Heavy rain in Hudsonville at 8:15 pm – no severe weather reported – the wind gusts to +90 mph at Cadillac were false reports.
Snow in Boulder CO. Here’s western IA – good thing the IA caucus was last night and not tonight. Meso-scale discussion for heavy snow for IA, MN, WI. Winter Weather Advisory for Mason, Lake, Osceola and Clare Counties to the north. SPC has THREE tornado watches issued from S. IL and SW IN to the Gulf of Mexico. We’ve had 5 reports of tornadoes in E. Mississippi. Here’s pic. of Scooba, Mississippi tornado. Reports of heavy structural damage to a church, barns and homes in Collinsville, MS. Surface weather map. High resolution satellite loop of tornadic supercells in Mississippi. “I live on Robison Ridge Road in Carrollton MS where the tornado just hit and everything is destroyed. More tornado video. FIRST SNOW EVER – records going back to 1600?! Aliceville tornado. This is the cold air coming for the middle of next week. 4″ snow in Cadillac (with a couple flashes of lightning). Tornado Dancy AL. 34″ of snow in 3 days. Heavy snow in Grand Is. Nebraska. Much colder (for next week) stamped right over Lower Michigan. So far 7 tornadoes today in AL/MS…a few severe hail and wind reports. Collinsville MS damage. Pics and video of the Aliceville AL tornado.
This is the lastest snowfall forecast from the Weather Prediction Center. Note the swath of heaviest snow runs from Colorado into Nebraska, Iowa, SE Minnesota, Wisconsin and into Upper Michigan. The heaviest band should be 6-12″. Here’s the National Hazards Map, Midwest Radar and Great Lakes Radar. The overnight GFS run gives G.R. just a 7% chance of measurable rain before 1 pm, but then an 93% chance of measurable rain from 1 pm to 7 pm. The east wind increases from 6 mph at 7 am to 24 mph at 4 pm. G.R. then has a 98% chance of measurable rain from 7 pm to 1 am tomorrow evening. Wednesday PM G.R. has a west wind at 22 mph. Temperatures fall below freezing Tues. evening when roads could become slippery. There is a Winter Weather Advisory from Mason, Lake, Osceola and Clare Counties to the north. There is a Winter Storm Warning for Emmet, Charlevoix and Cheboygan Counties to the north. The Warning covers most of the U.P. Here’s the NWS Michigan Impact Map. Roads just wet in our area from mid-afternoon through tomorrow night. Here’s 120-hour GFS snowfall (6″ for daughter #3 in TVC). NAM model 84-hour snowfall is a touch farther north with the significant snow. Arctic shot coming for the middle of next week. Grand Rapids has had 8 days this year with high temps. in the low-mid 40s…only two days with low temps. below +10.
The Storm Prediction Center has expanded the Thunderstorm Risk Areas for today (Tue.). The General Thunderstorm Outlook now comes up as far north as Muskegon-Midland. The Slight Risk is up to Indianapolis and the Enhanced Outlook covers an area from E. MS and W AL to S. IN. They say: “SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED…”
Also: Only 1.9″ of snow in Fairbanks, Alaska since 12/1 making for the least snowy Dec-Jan period on record. That was after over 50″ fell from 9/1 to 11/30 – the 5th heaviest fall snowfall Fairbanks has ever had. Pancake ice at Lake Michigan. Rare nacreous clouds in the U.K. Looks like virga. Wow! Strong winds in the Scottish Mountains: Cairngorm Summit clocked a gust of 149 mph with today’s storm. Back in 2011 it clocked 165 mph & holds UK record of 173 mph. The storm produced a 48.2 foot wave! Super Bowl 50 Weather: Dry, mild – maybe 60 degrees. Look at the snow on the mountains/hills at the “Grapevine” on I-5 north of L.A. The mountains of California – covered in snow. Strong ElNino Jan. temp departures. Remarkable similarity between 2016 and 1983. Other ElNino Jans also warm. 16.5″ snow, 6 miles SSW of Colorado Springs. Snowfall totals from the Denver area. Heavy snow in the CO Mtns. A 159-mile stretch of I-76 is closed from Lochbuie, CO, to CO state line. “Adjusted temperatures” in Michigan vs. the actual climate record. Note how often a story about invisible carbon dioxide always includes a pic. of a smokestack belching smoke or steam. Deception on purpose. 9″ snow at Warren AFB, Cheyenne, WY.
The image is the GFS model (overnight model run) valid for 11 pm Tues. evening. The low pressure center is going northwest of Chicago, and probably up over Manistee to Gaylord. We could start with a period of mixed precipitation (which could be freezing rain or wet snow) Tues. AM – north/northwest of G.R., but the main push Tuesday PM should be rain. It may be dry in the morning and winds will be lighter in the early morning. Winds get gusty for midday/afternoon on Tues. At 11 pm Tues., the map shows a swath of heavier rain along I-69 moving east (it’s not impossible there could be a flash of lightning – though the bigger threat for storms will be with the heavier band down toward West-Central Tennessee). Cooler air behind the system should bring snow showers Weds. into Thurs.
In the meantime…where skies cleared this morning, temperatures fell to near freezing or a little below freezing. That brought a chance of icy spots on the roads and some patchy fog. In a situation like that…check your home or vehicle thermometer. If it’s at or below 32 – watch out for patchy ice. Here’s a satellite view (infrared or nighttime view) and current temperatures/weather observations in Michigan. At 4 pm, it’s 28 with fog in Manistee…that certainly looks like it could be a black ice situation for the early morning. Ludington has light fog and 33 at 4 am – Mt. Pleasant is also 33, Fremont 32 and G.R. 35. Cloud cover was variable at that hour.
At 2 pm Monday – it’s 41 in Kalamazoo, 40 in G.R. and Muskegon, 39 in Holland and Battle Creek and 37 in Ludington. All areas are dry and most are partly sunny.
G.R. had 0.21″ of rain Sunday and G.R. is down to just a trace of snow on the ground…Muskegon had 0.16″ of rain and they are down to 4″ of snow at the MKG airport. The high reached 52 at Benton Harbor and Coldwater. Snow on the ground Monday AM: trace Grand Rapids, 1″ Kalamazoo (which has probably melted down to a trace by now), 2″ Big Rapids, 4″ Hart, 8″ Traverse City, 9″ Houghton Lake, 11″ S. Ste. Marie, 14″ Fife Lake, 15″ E. Jordan and Newberry, 16″ Gaylord and Marquette, 17″ Charlevoix, Mancelona, 21″ Munising, Big Bay, 22″ Ironwood, 24″ Atlantic Mine, 28″ Bergland Dam. 17% sunshine for G.R. in January – a relatively cloudy month, same as Dec., typical of a strong El Nino.
Lots in the thread below this one…video of a tornado in Cancun, Mexico and heavy rain in S. California…so read on below if you have time. Here’s some wind damage reports from the L.A. area from Sunday and damage reports from San Diego (one fatality where a tree fell on a vehicle). The peak gust of wind Sunday at the L.A. airport was 53 mph and at San Diego 48 mph. At 4 am EST, the Mammoth Mt. Ski Area reported a temperature of +9, 30-46″ of new snow and a new season total of 237″ – already way more than the 176″ they had all of last winter. They have a snow base of 90″ at the lodge and 150″ at the summit. Also, check out the REALLY CLOSE lightning hit at the airport at Sydney, Australia.
3 pm picture of Rosa Park Circle – They were skating here an hour ago…not now. The temp. in G.R. reached 47 today. The humidity was up to 100%, hence the fog. It’ was 52 in Coldwater (where they had a very-high-for-January dewpoint of 50. The cold front has passed thru and winds have turned to the west. There are still a few mainly sprinkles at 8 pm and light snow showers north of US 10. Here’s current conditions, G.R. radar and regional radar. Speaking of radar, check out SW US Radar and L.A. radar. Trying to copy the success NBC has had with musicals (Sound of Music had an audience of +19 million), FOX is doing “Grease” tonight and some of the live event is outside (“It’s Raining on Prom Night”). Here’s current S. California weather observations. At 3 pm EST (Noon local time), Burbank was reporting moderate rain and a south wind gusting to 30 mph. In the hour from 2 pm to 3 pm EST, The L.A. Airport had a gust to 38 mph. Other gusts that hour: 40 mph Santa Monica, 48 mph Acton, 52 mph Victorville, 53 mph Chilao. They had a severe t-storm in Ventura Co., where several trees were toppled, trapping six vehicles. Power lines are down and there is some flash flooding. Refugio State Beach reported 1.46″ of rain in just one hour! Grass Valley reported a wind gust to 61 mph. They had a gust to 59 mph 4 miles NE of Malibu and a gust to 60 mph at Acton. A Flash Flood Warning has been in effect. The Storm Prediction Center has the coast from L.A. to the Mexican border under a Marginal Risk for a Severe T-Storm. Kingvale Co. added another 6″ of snow, bringing their snow depth to 56″. The water level of Shasta Lake (the biggest reservoir in CA) is up another 2.09 ft. in the last 24-hours. Reno NV. is snowing (visibility 3/4 mi.) as I write this…and moderate snow is reported at Tonopah – which is about 1/2-way between Reno and Las Vegas. It’s sunny up in Frisco. Rainfall so far: 4.5″ Lake Arrowhead, 1.17″ San Luis Obispo CA, 1.14″ Escandido, 1.02″ Santa Barbara, 0.98″ Fresno, 0.86″ Bakersfield, 0.67″ Burbank, 0.18″ San Diego (still raining), 0.19″ Death Valley, 0.12″ Palm Springs. 11″ of new snow at Tuolumne Meadows and Lodgepole CA. One fatality has been reported when a tree fell on a car 7 miles northwest of San Diego. We’ll see a calm day tomorrow, in between rain days (rain Tues. may not start until PM) and maybe a touch of sun if we’re lucky. Over 41,000 customers w/out power in Los Angeles county & 38,000 w/out power in San Diego county. The peak wind gust was 115 mph at Whitaker Peak CA. Other peak wind gusts: 69 in Porter Ranch, 65 mph in Malibu Canyon, 61 in Beverly Hills. THUNDERSNOW in Flagstaff AZ.
Model Update: The NAM gives G.R. highs of 38 today (Mon.) and 40 tomorrow with winds increasing to 20 mph Tue. PM. The chance of rain is significantly higher in the PM than early Tuesday. The GFS has highs of 40 today and 44 tomorrow with an east wind up to 26 mph around 4 pm Tues. That model gives G.R. a 100% chance of rain Tues. PM. The models are not quite as cold as they were before with highs in the low-mid 30’s much of the rest of the week. It still looks like we’ll get a chilly period toward the middle of the month.
If you look at the National Hazards Map (full screen here), you can see where the snow is going to fall from Utah, through Colorado and then from S. Nebraska to Wisconsin to the U.P. That’s a Blizzard Watch for Iowa (Iowa caucus is Monday evening). Most of the snow comes later Monday night into Tues. AM – up to 12″ of snow and gusts to 40 mph possible. The Storm Prediction Center has a large Slight Risk Area for possible severe storms and tornadoes from Indianapolis south to the Gulf of Mexico, with an Enhanced Area in W. Tennessee and NW Mississippi. The morning run of the European model gives G.R. 0.66″ of precipitation – almost all rain. Coolest days are the 4th and 10th on that model. The morning run of the GFS has 0.46″ of rain for G.R. Here’s NCEP forecast snow from the Tuesday storm. GRR NWS graph of the storm…I think the heavy snow is north of Cadillac.
Also: What’s left of the snow out east is melting fast. Great day in Central Park. Strong winds forecast for Scotland and Ireland. Warm to hot weather ahead for much of India. Daily record precipitation at Salt Lake City on Saturday. 17″ of snow fell at Kebler Pass, Co. Current temps. in Hawaii. Tornado today in Cancun, Mexico!