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We had only nine tornadoes in Michigan in 2015, 55 reports of large (1″ in diameter) hail and 229 t-storm wind damage reports…all well under average. Only 10 tornado fatalities in the U.S. in 2015. Nine of ten were in Tornado Watches and one was in a Severe T-Storm Watch (awesome job by the Storm Prediction Center again this year). Of the 10 fatalities, 7 were in mobile homes. Kansas has had 178 tornadoes in 2015 and not a single tornado fatality! Texas has had the most tornadoes with 213 (so far). It’s a big state and it’s been a very wet year in the Southern Plains. As far as I can tell, there have been no EF5 tornadoes in the world in 2015. In the U.S. in 2015, there has been only one tornado rated EF4, 12 rated EF3, 41 rated EF2, 295 rated EF1 and 600 rated EF0. (tornadoes that cross state boundaries are countied in both states).
Seven states had no tornadoes this year (AK HI ME VT, CT RI NJ). The 10 tornado fatalites were in March, April and May. We had no tornado deaths in summer this year in the U.S. Map from SPC shows location of 2015 tornadoes (red), hail (green) and wind damage (blue) here in Michigan.
Check out the thread below that has more on the current cloudy and occasionally wet weather this Thanksgiving Day. We’ve love to see (and use on the air/online) your pics. of fall colors, weather or news – you can send us an email at firstname.lastname@example.org or thru ReportIt. My email is email@example.com. You can follow me on Twitter (@bsteffen) or on facebook here: https://www.facebook.com/Bill-Steffen-244277545622/?fref=ts (this is my fan page…my friends page is up to the 5,000 limit…but everyone can join my fan page. Happy Thanksgiving!
This is the Muskegon Channel this AM – Muskegon tied a record high temperature of 56 today (Weds.) I haven’t seen any boats yet this AM, but one pic. had two of them in the channel yesterday – looked like both boats were fishing. The lake is choppy today. The Muskegon beach weather station shows a wind of 19 mph. The mid-Lake Michigan buoy has winds of 22 mph and 5-foot waves. The mid-lake buoy shows an air temp. of 48 and a water temp. of 47.7 – that’s a couple degrees warmer than average. There are Small Craft Advisories for Lake Michigan (Gale Warnings north of Pentwater). For anyone traveling, here’s the National Hazards Map – click on a spot on the map to get forecast and watch/warning details for that area. There’s a Blizzard Warning for SW Wyoming. Best to avoid I-80 if you’re traveling out West. Traffic problem in Chicago. Up to half a foot of snow is expected along I-80 between Reno and Sacramento in CA. Snow will fall from NE New Mexico thru KS up into W. Iowa, where you’ll find Winter Weather Advisories. East of the snow, heavy rain could cause local flooding from N. Texas to the St. Louis Area. There could also be some freezing rain with this system. In general, the east is warmer than avg. and the west is cooler than average. In Michigan, roads will be dry into this evening with a chance of showers later tonight into tomorrow (heavier rain west and south of G.R. tomorrow). Wet roads for much of Lower Michigan for Thursday into early Friday. Showers are likely Friday AM, but showers will end from north to south Friday PM/evening with dry roads on Sat. and Sun. in Lower MI.
Quick note – 6:35 pm – Some light showers (more sprinkles than not) moving thru the area now. Expect a trace to a few hundredths of an inch this evening…probably not worth the umbrella if you’re running in and out. The afternoon run of the GFS gives G.R. a high of 58 tomorrow…then 49 at daybreak Friday falling to 37 at 7 pm Friday. The chance of rain on that model is 19% before 1 am tonight, but 88% after 1 am tonight…then 90% tomorrow and 100% for tomorrow night. Saturday looks cool and dry…weather should be OK for all the football games. GVSU and Ferris St. will be on Comcast channel 900 and also streaming on the internet (see link). Tom Cleary will do his usual awesome job calling the game.
Hurricane Sandra will weaken to a tropical storm and then a depression as it moves into W. Mexico north of Mazatlan. Winds not much of a concern, but some local flooding. Moisture from Sandra will create heavy rain from Texas to S. Missouri. Up to 6″ of rain forecast in eastern OK. Much of TX/OK has had well-above average rainfall this year, ending the drought that some had blamed on global warming (the primary cause was La Nina). “As of July 16, 2015, Texas was officially 100-percent drought free after record rainfall during May 2015.” NCEP showing global temps. at record warm for the satellite era as El Nino peaks…global temps. will fall late 2016 to 2017 as the El Nino fades away. This El Nino ranks #2 in the satellite era, behind 1997. Cold this morning in the Northwest…down to +8 at Great Falls MT and +4 in Cut Bank MT – Edmonton, Alberta dropped to -29F. Wow! Two identical storms two years apart. Here’s something you don’t see everyday – a waterspout off Saudi Arabia. Person listed as missing after 2011 tornado found alive in Florida – three people still listed as missing from that tornado. Nice updraft on this storm. This am it was warmer in Anchorage AK than in Crestview FL. Snowcover in the Alps (note snow on the mountains and no snow in the valleys). 14″ of snow near Bend, OR, with 4″ in the last 3 hrs, 75 mph gust at Sunnyside, WA.
At noon, already up to 54 at the Muskegon Arpt – 52 Holland Arpt. – 49 G.R. ….cooler where there is still some snow on the ground – 45 at Sturgis and Three Rivers, 43 at Hillsdale. Morning run of the NAM model gives G.R. a high of 54 tomorrow with an 88% chance of measurable rain…GFS model has a high of 57 tomorrow with a 98% chance of measurable rain. Don’t know if you heard me mention on the news last night that I think Dec. will also end up warmer than average in the Great Lakes – a pattern we have been in since Sept. Feb. should be the coolest month of the winter relative to average. December should also give much of the Great Lakes below average snowfall. The GFS is showing a mostly rain event around the 6th/7th. Low gas prices a blessing, especially for the poor and middle class traveling during the holidays this year. Here’s the visible (daytime) satellite loop – you can see the snow on the ground in SE. Lower Michigan and N. Indiana and the clouds approaching from the west.
Two Magnitude 7.6 earthquakes was recorded this evening along the Peru-Bolivia border. One was centered 105 mi WNW of Iberia, Peru and 428 mi. ENE of Lima, Peru. The quake occurred at 5:45 pm EST. It was followed by another 7.6 magnitude earthquake 5 minutes later. 5.9 magnitude aftershock. This was a very deep earthquake, 374 miles below the surface and it occurred in a sparsely-populated jungle area. It’s estimated that it was felt by over 1.2 million people in Peru, western Brazil and Bolivia. An estimated 30,000 would have felt it “strongly” or “very strongly”. At this time (8:20 pm) there are no reports of casualties.
Over the past century, 91 earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or greater have occurred at depths greater than 300 km globally; 13 of these were located in the same region as today’s quakes. The largest nearby event at these depths was an M 8.2 Bolivia earthquake. The most recent large event in the immediate vicinity of the November 24, 2015 events was a M 7.0 earthquake in October 1990.
Also – Check out the baseball-sized hail that pounded Italy today! It appears to be over a foot deep in this picture. Tonight’s 99% full moon over New Orleans. Hurricane Sandra forms west of Mexico – the 2nd latest hurricane in the season to develop since reliable records begain in 1971. Snow falling over a good portion of the western U.S. Here’s snow in Spokane. Lake-effect convective clouds over Lake Ontario. Dallas TX needs 2.8″ to have its wettest year on record going back to 1899. Should happen this Fri or Sat. More large hail pics. from Italy today. Still some awesome fall colors to see. The Paris Effect…97% of Americans don’t believe that climate change is a top concern. The 2nd longest streak of temperatures of 70 degrees or higher at Key West FL has come to an end…4/2 to 11/24. 9 above zero at Saranac Lake NY Tues. AM. The high temp in Beijing on Tuesday was only -4C (25F), the lowest temp since Jan. 2013. Another “frost flower”. Full moon tonight. Nice sun dog. Quite a view from the Austrian Alps.
The GRR NWS has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for all of Lower Michigan starting at 1 am and running until 7 am on Sunday. Here’s their latest discussion. The NCEP model snow forecast has the heaviest snow late Fri. night and Saturday along I-94. We’re expecting 3-6″ accumulation. The ground is warm and snow may start melting from underneath, considering temps. will be close to the freezing point. BEH, S. Haven, I-94 corridor could see +6″. Driving is going to get nasty as the colder air comes in and slush freezes Sat. evening.
Snow totals: 18″ near Tea SD, 17″ Harrisburg SD, 16″ Marion SD, 14″ just south-southeast of Sioux Falls SD, 13″ Sanborn IA, 12″ near Yankton SD, 11″ Spencer, Tyndall and Tripp IA. This storm will produce rain showers Saturday in Ohio, so it could be wet for the GVSU game in Ashland and the Michigan State/Ohio State game in Columbus. There was one report of 7″ at Platteville WI, southwest of Madison, but most reports in SW Wisconsin and N. Illnois are in the 2-4″ range so far.
The map here is expected snowfall totals across the Midwest. Current GRR NWS forecast snow map. CFSv2 45-day snowfall forecast…sure doesn’t look like the super-warm El Nino of 1982-83…closer to near normal temps. and slightly below average snowfall. Snowcover makes a difference. Also: Multiple reports of a meteor/fireball over southern IN and central KY. Tornado in Brazil. More video of the twister. 8.41″ of rain in 24 hours at Beaufort, NC. Heavy early-season snow for Beijing and much of Northern China. Gales of November from a ship on Lake Michigan. Banding of clouds. Drone video of Georgia tornado damage. Tornado ripped up high school football field. Cool video of Typhoon In-fa. Sydney, Australia reaches 105.6F – 2nd hottest day ever in Nov. NWS confirms two EF1 tornadoes in Georgia – similar to Portland MI tornado this summer.
Check out this red tornado.
Thanks to Debby Witt for finding these interesting notes: Why Reese’s are usually taxed but Kit Kats aren’t. Father borrows Go-Pro, holds it backwards and accidentally records entire vacation the wrong way as one long selfie. Video of movie characters driving, falling, jumping and being thrown through glass windows. The strangely successful history of people mailing themselves in boxes. Woman wins fight to wear spaghetti strainer on her head for driver-license photo. The dewpoint at Sydney, Australia dropped from 66 to 34 in 30-minutes when the wind shifted from east off the ocean to west out of the arid interior. El Nino fades to La Nina in 2016 – just like previous El Ninos. Christmas day 1982 G.R. had a record high temp. of 65 deg. In 1983, G.R. set a record low temp.of -3 on Christmas Day.
Finally, Happy Birthday to Terri DeBoer.
This map is the probabilty of an inch of snow…the highest chances are where the NWS thinks the heaviest snow will be. You can go here and see what they think the odds are for 2″, 4″, 6″, 8″ or 12″. Here’s the snowfall forecast off NCEP NDFD and the European WRF. And the NWS 11 pm snowfall forecast. All are pretty close with the heaviest snow from G.R. to the north. Check out the latest GRR NWS forecast discussion. This is the 7th greatest snow extent for this date in the Northern Hemisphere of the 48 years of the satellite record and the greatest in the last 10 years. That’s 3,856,000 more square kilometers or 122% of the 48-year average. Ski resorts are opening early in Colorado…and California’s earliest start to the ski season since 2002. Here’s some recent snowfall reports from Colorado. Wow! Check out these winds in Colorado. and video! Today is opening day for Mt. Baker in Washington St., where Pan Dome already has a 63″ base. They report: “Mt. Baker has had some amazing storms come through in the past few weeks, dropping plenty of snow…” Over 4,000 Consumers customers without power in L. Michigan due to strong winds.
This is the South Haven Channel just before noon – you can see the large waves that were crashing across the breakwater. Peak gusts today: 55 mph at the Muskegon shoreline, 53 mph near Woodland, GVSU’s weather station at Muskegon Lake had a peak gust of 52 mph, 51 mph at East Grand Rapids H.S., 50 mph at the S. Haven beach. The Ludington beach reached 47 mph. There was also a 47 mph gust at the Holland Channel, at the airport in Lansing and at the airport in Grand Rapids. Downtown G.R. at GVSU (roof) had a gust to 49 mph this AM, gusts hit 45 mph at Battle Creek, the Holland airport and in Kalamazoo, Jenison, Jackson and Big Rapids had peak gusts of 43 mph and gusts hit 40 mph at Ionia, Pentwater, Gobles, Dorr and at the mid-Lake Michigan buoy. We have a Wind Advisory from Noon until Midnight for the lakeshore, where there could be wind gusts as high as 50 mph. Looks like gusts to 40 mph inland. Remember…cold air coming over relatively warm water will make bigger waves than warm air going over cold water (like in April). We also have Gale Warnings for Lake Michigan. Here’s the GRR NWS discussion. They are calling for 3-6″ of snow for much of the area and that looks right to me.
Snow now covers much of Canada, ice has formed in N. Hudson Bay and lakes north of Churchill (Manitoba) and Great Slave Lake are already frozen. Heavy snow has fallen in Alaska. They’ve also have some extreme early cold in our 49th state. Noatak AK dipped to -38F Weds. AM. Bettles had a high/low of -17/-31 and they have 15″ of snow on the ground. McGrath had a high/low of -20/-28 with 10″ of snow on the ground. Kotzebue tied a record low of -23 that was set back in 1930. Anchorage tied a record low Weds. AM at -8(colder than it got in ANC all last winter!!) and their high of +4 was 23 deg. colder than average. Juneau had 12″ of snow cover and Yakutat reported a 17″ snow depth. The sun set yesterday in Barrow, Alaska, and won’t be rising above the horizon again until Jan. 23, 2016 Also: “Sea Level Rise From Antarctic Ice Melt May Not Be As Bad As Feared.” Antarctic ice extent is well above average. Arctic ice extent is very close to last year on this date and at a considerably greater extent than four years ago. Here’s a comparison of Arctic ice today compared to this date in 2007. Beehives in early season snow in Turkey.
Also: Wettest start to November in the satellite era. Nice sunset. Recurving typhoon “In-fa” may keep trough in the East and keep things cool in the Great Lakes during the first week of December. Another rainbow pic. from yesterday evening. 2014 vs. 2015 in W. Michigan. Tornado damage in GA – there were 3 tornadoes yesterday…one in GA and two in the FL Panhandle. Yesterday Cleveland OH (71) was warmer than Phoenix AZ (66) and New Orleans (65). Tamps hit 89, while the high was 26 in Cut Bank MT. 72-hour rainfall: 9.05 Altus OK, 8.33″ Rolla MO, 7.73″ Nacogdochus TX, 5.72″ Jonesburo AR, 5.10″ Memphis TN, 4.28″ Pompano FL. Peak mountain wind gusts: 137 mph Mission Ridge WA, 101 mph Colburn ID, 100 mph Gold Hill CO. Spokane had a gust to 71 mph and Rapid City SD hit 67 mph. Tornado in Argentina yesterday.
GRAND RAPIDS, Mich. (WOOD) — The powerful Great Lakes storm has produced an incredible seiche on Lake Erie, and smaller seiches on the other Great Lakes.
A seiche occurs when strong winds push the surface water. With a strong west wind, the water level of the lake will drop on the west side of the lake and rise on the east side of the lake. This can be caused by a relatively quick line of severe thunderstorms with strong winds, or it can be more gradual, as with the “Gales of November” low pressure systems that cause a “standing seiche” that may last for a day or more.
In the case of the line of storms, the water level quickly drops on the east side of the lake as the storm passes and the water sloshes back and forth, causing several rises and falls, which can be very dangerous. An example of that was the 1954 seiche that occurred in Chicago, which resulted in eight fatalities and the July 4, 2003 scieche that resulted in seven fatalities in Berrien County, Michigan.
Because it is oriented west-east, Lake Erie experiences some amazing standing seiches. Look at what today’s strong winds have done:
Look at the graphs above. On the left is the water level of Lake Erie at Toledo. It shows a drop of over 6 feet as the strong west winds pushed the water away from shore. You can see what happened in this video. At the east end of the lake, the water was piling up.
The graph on the right shows a rise of 7 feet at Buffalo. Put large waves on top of that and you have coastal flooding and beach erosion. Compounding the situation, the water level of Lake Erie today (Thursday) is 11 inches above the long-term November average.
Today, all five of the Great Lakes have above-average water levels. Peak winds included a gust to 66 mph and the Port Colbourne buoy at the east end of Lake Erie reported a wave of 16.1 feet! The fall/rise has been less spectacular on Lake Michigan:
As the wind eases, the water levels will gradual return to their pre-storm levels.
Derechos crossing Lake Michigan occasionally produce what is called a seiche (pronounced as “say-sh”). A seiche is a prounounced oscillation of the lake surface. Such oscillations can at times change the water level at a given point by as much as ten feet. The May 30-31, 1998 derecho produced a seiche as the water level rose on the east side of the lake because of the intense westerly winds. At the time the derecho hit the east shore, a tug boat, the Stephen M. Asher, was traveling through a channel between Lake Michigan and White Lake north of Muskegon. The sailors on board the tug noticed the surge and the rise in water level as the derecho winds moved through. However, after the winds had subsided, the boat received an even higher surge from the opposite direction as the water in White Lake tried to return back into Lake Michigan. It was this return surge that overturned and ultimately sank the boat. Fortunately, the sailors were able to reach the bank of the channel and no one drowned.”
Sunshine will return for the weekend in the Great Lakes, before another wet storm brings us up to an inch of rain from Monday night to Wednesday night of next week.
This is a morning pic. from the S. Haven GLERL camera. There is a little rain on the camera and it’s been harder to grab a shot because the camera is bouncing around in the wind, but you can see the waves crashing over the breakwater. It’s certainly a different scene from what the camera looked like yesterday afternooon. Pic. from ship on Lake Michigan. At 11 pm, the mid-Lake Michigan buoy was getting the strongest winds of the day, steady at 37 mph with a gust to 46 mph. The buoy reports 8.2 foot waves. A few peak wind gusts: 59 mph at the Muskegon beach, 57 mph near Jackson, 56 mph Holland beach, 53 at the Muskegon Airport, 53 at the S. Haven beach, 52 at the Holland Regional Airport, 53 mph at Battle Creek, 52 mph at the Grand Rapids Airport, 52 mph Benton Harbor and 44 mph at the Kalamazoo Airport. Needless to say, stay off the piers and breakwaters. From a ship on Lake Michigan last night: “During the night we had sustained southwest winds of 58 mph and a peak gust of 72 mph around 0200 CST.” As of 11:45 pm Thurs., 1,809 Consumers Energy customers were without electricity, inc. 541 in Kent Co., and 301 in Barry Co. The power companies have done a stellar job of getting power back up fairly quickly today. As of 5 pm, the AVERAGE wind speed in G.R. today has been 24 mph and the average wind speed at the Battle Creek airport has been 27 mph. Here’s a list of peak wind gusts in West Michigan today.
The High Wind Warning had been downgraded one notch to a Wind Advisory that will continue until 5 am Friday for just the lakeshore counties. The Lakeshore Flood Warning has been downgraded one notch to a Lakeshore Flood Advisory for all lakeshore areas. Strong west winds will continue to push the water of Lake Michigan toward the Michigan shore. This is technically called a “standing seiche“. With a steady 40 mph wind, you may find the water level of Lake Michigan to be a foot higher at Holland and S. Haven than the water level at Chicago. The combination of the higher water level and the big waves will likely cause some beach erosion. We also have a Storm Warning that lasts through 5 am Friday AM. North of Grand Haven, it’s a Gale Warning through Fri. AM. Even inland lakes are choppy. You can follow the wind and waves at the mid-Lake Michigan buoy, which is located about 40 miles west of Holland. Wave heights have been as high as 9 feet at the buoy. Here’s current conditions (gust to 52 mph in G.R. this PM). Here’s a current surface map. Here’s severe weather and wind reports from the Chicago area and Northern Indiana. The center of the low pressure center at noon is near S. Ste. Marie.
The National Weather Service has upgraded the website of the National Hurricane Center. Here’s the last advisory on “Kate”. Ireland and the U.K. getting blasted by strong winds today. 102 mph gust on Fourpeaked Mountain, AK. 19″ of snow on the ground at Bettles AK, low temp. of -15F at Fairbanks AK this morning, -20F at Arctic Village. Some of that cold air in Alaska will move south into the West – esp. the Rockies. Damage from yesterday’s tornadoes in Iowa. Nice time lapse. From Professor Dr. Roger Pelkie: Multi-decadal model predictions of CHANGES in regional climate statistics have NO demonstrated skill.
The National Weather Service has issued a High Wind Warning through at least 5 am Friday for the Lakeshore Counties, plus Kent and Ionia Counties to the south. There’s a Wind Advisory for Newaygo, Montcalm and Gratiot Counties to the north. We also have a Lakeshore Flood Warning from Ottawa County to the south. This would probably not have been issued two years ago, but now the water level of Lake Michigan is significantly higher, Not only do we expect waves of 10-15 feet, but the strong southwest and then west winds will push the water of Lake Michigan toward the Michigan shore. This is technically called a “standing seiche”. With a steady 40 mph wind, you may find the water level of Lake Michigan to be a foot higher at Holland and S. Haven than the water level at Chicago. It’s a Lakeshore Flood Advisory for Berrien County due to the shorter “fetch” or distance that the wind will travel over Lake Michigan. The combination of the higher water level and the big waves will likely cause some beach erosion. Of course, you’ll need to stay off the piers and breakwaters. We also have a Gale Warning from Grand Haven to the south that starts at 7 pm this evening. That changes to a Storm Warning (the next step up from a Gale Warning) at 5 am Thursday and lasts through Friday AM. North of Grand Haven, it’s a Gale Warning from 7 pm this evening through Fri. AM. Even inland lakes are going to get choppy. You can follow the wind and waves at the mid-Lake Michigan buoy, which is located about 40 miles west of Holland.
This map from the NWS shows one model’s forecast of the maximum wind gust with this system with the strongest gusts along and south of I-96. We’ll get one primary line of showers/rain with the possiblity of an isolated thundershower. Much of Lower Michigan is in the Marginal Risk Area for a severe storm this evening/tonight, with strong wind gusts being the primary threat (see thread below this one). The Slight Risk Area comes east to Lake Michigan, including Chicago and Gary. The GFS has at least a 20-mph steady wind (gusts above that) from late this evening through midday Friday, with the fastest winds Thursday midday into the afternoon. Here’s a nice discussion on the storm from the GRR NWS. On a wind scale of 1 to 10 with 10 being like the Edmund Fitzgerald storm…this storm system will likely be a strong 8…so…we’ve seen worse, but this will still be a very significant storm. We do expect some tree damage and power outages. Remember to avoid (stay far away from) any downed power lines.
12:50 am. Pea-sized hail in Hudsonville. Gusts last 2 hours: 55 mph Muskegon beach, 46 mph Holland, 40 mph Muskegon, 35 mph Grand Rapids…63 mph wind just east of downtown Chicago at the Harrison Crib Water Intake…49 mph mid-Lake Michigan buoy. During max. heating, readings were in the low-mid 70s back in Iowa/N. Missouri when the tornadoes and wind damage was occurring. As the instability diminishes with the setting sun and cooler temps., so does the chance of severe weather. The high temp. Weds. was 63 in G.R. and even 63 on the beach at Muskegon. The average high for Weds. was 50. G.R. dipped to 30 Weds AM and that was 5 degrees cooler than the average low of 30. The water temp. at the mid-Lake Michigan buoy is 53.6. The water temp. of Reeds Lake (East G.R.) is 53. Check out the Midwest looping radar. Here’s a surface weather map – some convergence of air along the line of showers/t-storms. Here’s the NWS Lake Michigan wave forecast. As of 1:20 pm, we had 5331 Consumers Energy customers without power (nearly half of those in Barry Co.) and 2600 I & M customers without power in Berrien, Cass and LaPorte (IN) counties. Few trees down in Berrien, Cass and Van Buren Counties.
“We would love to see your pictures and videos of the storm. You can send them to us thru ReportIt at http://www.woodtv.com or in an email to firstname.lastname@example.org. You can email me at email@example.com.
Also – here’s the track of minimal Hurricane Kate, which will likely be downgraded to a Tropical Storm and then an Extraropical Storm today and tonight. It’ll move northeast, missing land. WYDOT reporting I-80 closed Laramie-Rawlins due to snow and blowing snow. I-70 West closed at Georgetown, CO, due to spun-out tractor trailers. US 6 Loveland Pass in Colorado closed UFN due to avalanche hazard. Here’s some Colorado snow totals (still snowing there). Bordeaux, WY was reporting a steady 44 mph wind with a peak gust of 58 mph. Here’s Midwest looping radar. Here’s the rain moving thru New England. A strong west wind has caused high water levels and large waves in Western Alaska. Golovin AK reports that residents came together and built a large sand berm to block water from getting into town. The old runway there is under water. Adak AK reported a wind gust to 70 mph. Hyder AK had 13″ of snow. Up to 7″ of snow in Montana.
Finally, a salute to all the Veterans (my father was in the Army Air Corps for over five years during WWII – flew in B24s and B25s. He spent over 2 years at Frederick Army Air Field in Oklahoma. The pilot instructor there was a man (also from Chicago) named George Gobel, who would go on to become a successful comedian (funny clip at link from the Tonight Show). The Grand Rapids Veterans Parade was Weds. night tonight downtown at 7:30 pm.
Today is the 40th anniversary of the famous storm that resulted in the sinking of the ore-carrier, Edmund Fitzgerald. The wreck occurred just north of Whitefish Point in Lake Superior. Twenty-nine men were lost as the Fitzgerald sank in 530 feet of water. The ship was launched June 8, 1958, and was the largest ship on the Great Lakes until 1971. It was carrying a cargo of 26,116 tons of taconite pellets, which are used in the steelmaking industry. A popular song by Canadian folk-singer Gordon Lightfoot titled “The Wreck of the Edmund Fitzgerald” reached #2 on the Billboard chart one year later (lyrics). You can hear the song here and see a list of Great Lakes shipwrecks. A service is held in River Rouge Michigan to pay honor to those lost on the Fitzgerald. A bell tolls 29-times for the 29 men (who ranged in age from 21 to 63) who were lost that night, plus one additional time for all those lost in the Gales of November on the Great Lakes. The service is free and is streamed on the web. Read more here and here. Here’s video of the Edmund Fitzgerald on the floor of Lake Superior. Here’s simulated waves for the Fitzgerald Storm. And here’s audio from that fateful night. Here’s where there are ships on the Great Lakes right now. Approximately 240 ships have sunk in the Whitefish Point area since the first recorded sinking in 1816. Edmund Fitzgerald facts.
We’ve had quite a few of our strongest low pressure storms during this second week of November, including the Freshwater Fury of 1913, the Armistice Day Storm of 1940 (strongest wind gust ever in G.R.) and the Nov. 10, 1998 storm that was similar to the storm in 1975.
Here’s a pic. from Drone8 – Hope you’ve had the chance to see the videos we’ve shot with the Drone. You can check out video from around Holland St. Park here. We are going to get some spectacular shots for both news and weather. Kyle Underwood (a licensed pilot) will be operating the drone.
Lake Michigan-Huron is down 3″ in the last month and unchanged from the level of one year ago. The lake is 7″ higher than the November average level. Lake Superior is also down 3″ in the last month and down 5″ in the last year. Superior is still 4″ above the average November level. Lake Erie is down 5″ in the last month, up 3″ in the last year and up 11″ above the November average. Lake Ontario is also down 5″ in the last moneh, but is up 4″ in the last year and stands 3″ above the November average. Lake St. Clair is down 7″ in the last month, up 1″ in the last year and is at 11″ above the November average.
Outflow down the St. Marys River from Lake Superior to Lake Huron and outflow from the St. Clair River from Lake Huron into Lake St. Clair are forecast to be near average flow. The Detroit River running from Lake St. Clair into Lake Erie is forecast to have a little above average flow, as is the Niagara River that flows from Lake Erie over Niagara Falls and into Lake Ontario. The Grand River in G.R. (as I write this) is flowing at the rate of 2730 cubic feet per second compared to an average flow of 2240 cfs. The St. Joseph River at Dowagiac is flowing at 1870 cfs compared to a median flow of 2200 cfs. The Saginaw River at Saginaw is at 2480 cfs compared to a median flow of 2760 cfs.
Great Lakes News: Events to mark the 40th anniversary of the sinking of the Edmund Fitzgerald. Update on the Port Sheldon buoy. How a Mormon king shaped Beaver Island. Rosy Mound Natural Area at Grand Haven is a great place to visit. This is the town where I grew up. DNR ready for next year’s Lake Michigan salmon season. The latest from Boatnerd. Close-up satellite view of Garden and Hog Islands in Lake Michigan.
We’ve love to see (and use on the air/online) your pics. of fall colors, weather or news – you can send us an email at firstname.lastname@example.org or thru ReportIt.
Just a heads up that it’s possible that we could catch a peek of the Northern Lights/Aurora Borealis the next couple of nights here in West Michigan. But don’t hold your breath. It’s far from a sure thing.
As I write this, www.spaceweather.com has the Kp index at 4 (unsettled), which would for the most part be a “no” for seeing the lights here around G.R. We’d need an index of around 5 before we’d see a faint green on the northern horizon (mainly in an area free from artificial light). They have spotted the Northern Lights faintly in NE Nebraska around 1 am. You can go to spaceweather.com and keep looking to see if we can get up to a 5 or 6.
We also have some high clouds drifting by from time to time, especially north of Grand Rapids, and later tonight a half moon.
So it’s worth keeping an eye out, but keep in mind that seeing a decent aurora here (we’re closer to the Equator than we are the North Pole) is pretty rare.
We’ve love to see (and use on the air/online) your pics. of fall colors, weather or news – you can send us an email at email@example.com or thru ReportIt.
“(Hurricane) Patricia is one of the strongest tropical cyclones ever observed based on lowest central pressure and maximum surface (and flight level) wind speed since the dawn of aviation-based reconnaissance in the 1940s” – WeatherBell meteorologist Dr. Ryan Maue. Patricia made landfall at 7:15 PM EDT as a Category 5 hurricane, with max winds of 160-165 MPH, and a central pressure of 920 mb. Gust to 185 mph wind at Chamela-Cuixmala, Jalisco, Mexico. Gust will have to be verified…usually mounting antenna fails well before 185 mph. The good news is that the storm is rapidly weakening and will continue to weaken as it continues inland and over the mountains. However, it will continue to pump copious amounts of moisture north into Texas, where they have already had over a foot of rain and significant flooding. The videos here don’t do the storm justice but…video 1 (light is reflection of inside light, not the sun)…video 2 (you ain’t seen nuthin’ yet)…video 3 (storm surge)…video Manzanillo, Mexico…video – camera fail during hurricane…more video. Videos from NBC News. Hurricane Patricia peak winds Friday of 200 mph not only makes her a cat 5 hurricane, but also the equivalent of an EF-5 on tornado! Why Hurricane Patricia Can’t be Blamed on Climate Change. – link to PBS article. Note eye “weakening” as the eye approaches the coast. Here’s the latest track on Patricia as the moisture heads toward Texas. Here’s the latest forecast discussion and public advisory on the storm. Puerto Vallarta webcam. 10 years ago…freaky “grin” from Hurricane “Wilma”. The remains of Patricia could cause severe weather outbreak from the Ohio Valley south Mon. – Weds. Webcams of Mexico. Tracks of previous Category 5 hurricanes off Mexico.
Fort Worth TX fire dept. made 16 high water calls in 37 min. 13,000 customers without power in the Dallas/Fort Worth area. I-45 closed in both directions in Rice and Angus, TX. I-35 was also closed outside of Fort Worth. Major parking garage collapse in Dallas. 15.35″ of rain in 24-hours at Corsicana TX., 5.97″ at Waco, 5.50″ at Dallas and 5.47″ at Arlington. Here’s flood reports from the Fort Worth area. Rapid rise on the Trinity River in Dallas.
Also, A frigid -54C / -65F at Summit Camp, Greenland. Interesting clouds in Clay, Alabama. Snow in the Colorado Rockies. Budweiser Clydesdales at the Public Museum of G.R. – I got to sit up top with the driver once – fun. This is the state of “science” today: http://www.nature.com/news/publishers-withdraw-more-than-120-gibberish-papers-1.14763?utm_content=buffer95c78&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer As long as the grant money keeps flowing.
Friday evening – I’m back in G.R. temporarily. Tomorrow (Sat.), I’ll be at the Lowe’s in Portage (5108 Westnedge – just north of I-94 on the west side of the street) for Fire Safety Day. It lasts from 10 am to 2 pm and I’ll be there from shortly after 10 am until around 1 pm. We’ll have (while they last – which is often until the end) free smoke detectors, free 9-Volt batteries – I’ll bring Bill’s mustaches, weather and fire safety bookmarks, Storm Team 8 pencils – you can meet Jake the Fire Safety Dog (he’ll show you how to escape from a smoky room). There will be a kid’s Halloween Costume Contest (with prizes) at 11 am. We’ll have fire trucks, an ambulance – last year there was a veterinarian and last year we had some Halloween candy for the kids – don’t know if they are doing that this year. We’ll be broadcasting live on the radio. If you’re in the area – stop by and say “hi”.
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Holy Frijole! Did you see the end of the Michigan-Michigan State game?? Video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TpGLrqXhOtQ It’ll be our lead story at 10 pm on WXSP and at 11 pm on WOOD! Reminds me of this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZYuEqPd66Yg
Jalen Watts-Jackson scored the game-winning TD for the Spartans, but he also suffered a severe hip injury on the play. Michigan State coach Mike Dantonio said it was either a dislocated or broken hip. Did the injury occur after he had scored the touchdown?
Check out this picture of cars buried in a mudslide in S. CA. Showers and storms have produced significant local flooding in S. California. This from the NWS in L.A.: “There is a Flash Flood Emergency occurring in the Antelope Valley in the area of Leona Valley, Quartz Hill and western Palmdale. Significant flooding and debris flows have been affecting Lake Hughes, Elizabeth Lake and San Francisquito Canyon Roads, and the I-5 Corridor. Rainfall rates in Leona Valley and Fairmont Dam were between 4 to 6 inches per hour. Law enforcement is advising people to remain away from this area!”
@LACo_FD Station 33 used aerial to rescue 6 people & 6 dogs stranded on the roofs of 2 houses. 2 @LACoFireAirOps Copt 15/16 searched 25 cars,10miles of uncontrolled H2O,rescued 4 people w/2 dogs .20″ of rain in 3 hrs at Twentynine Palms, CA. Video of snowplows clearing mud from Interstate 5 (which is still closed as I write this). Mud on the Grapevine. CHP says 25 vehicles are still stuck in this mess”. Wow! Look at the upper level low rotating in a circle around the Southwest. 8,700 customers without power in S. CA. Map of rainfall in S. CA. Lots of dewpoints in the 60s in S. CA – humid air for that area! More mudslide pics. Mudslide Ft. Tejon CA. S. Calif. regional radar. Here’s storm reports from NWS LAX, including 1″ hail near Palmdale and 2.99″ of rain in 30-minutes near Lancaster. It looks like snow, but it’s really hail on the ground at Lake Elizabeth CA. Video and rain in Lake Hughes CA. Over 5,000 lightning strikes in CA – a lot by CA standards. Chc. of t-storms continues in the SW today and tomorrow.
Also: Check out this pic. of a flying surfer! Typhoon Koppu hitting the Philippines (northern Luzon). 66 mph gust at Albuquerque, NM. Fall colors in NY. Sunset in Belding, from Charles Russell. View of Gun Lake from the air...I’ll guess you’re looking to the southwest in the pic. Still looks like some piers are in. Snow in Stelvio Pass, Italy. Tweet from Chuck Yeager: “Today, 68 years ago, at 10:24am, I broke the sound barrier w/ only 1.5 minutes of fuel. I told Ridley: Something wrong with this Mach meter.” (I read his book).
Overnight Model update: NAM has highs of 53, 45, 50 for G.R. with lows of 30 Sat. AM and 31 Sun. AM – GFS has lows of 31 Sat. and Sun. AM and highs beginning with today (Fri.) of 53, 49, 57, 66, 69, 68, 63, 62. European model has 850mb temp. down to -7C at 8 am Sat. That’d be cold enough for a sleet or wet snow mix. The 850 mb temp. races up to +12.9C by Mon. even…then back down to -4.3C Thurs. night. Most of Sunday and Monday should be dry. Chc. of showers Monday night on and off to Thurs. Euro. has lows for G.R. of 34 Sat. and 32 Sunday AM…back to 68 Weds. PM.
Thurs. I did main – wrote a postcard to mom (try to do that at least 3x a week, had a clock repairman here, went to the bank to deposit a $4 check – then to the township office to pay the $75 sewer bill – mailed letters – next to a farmer’s market (farmer told me that they were picking all the peppers they could ahead of the freeze we were predicting – then on to pay my SAL dues – I went and bought two new suits (look for those on TV soon) – did some food shopping in Grandville, then drove across 28th st. to take my wife to dinner at Noto’s. On the way home, we swerved to avoid a shopping cart that had been blown by the wind (I assume) into the right lane of westbound 28th st. I stopped and took the cart back to D.& W. Home to watch our 10 pm news and then the end of the Thurs. night NFL game (N.O. over Atlanta). Then on the computer. Back to work for today, Saturday and Sunday. Let us know (email@example.com or thru ReportIt) if you get pics. or video of snow, sleet or anything else interesting.