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Today, Lake Michigan ice cover stands at 52.3% (middle image). You can see by the graph on the left, that Lake Michigan ice cover peaked at the end of February. Strong winds broke up some of the ice. A little more reformed last night. It will be breezy tomorrow (Fri.). Mean temps. will stay below freezing (barely) through the weekend. Next week, it will likely be a little cooler over the lake than on land. We may have very well hit peak ice on Lake Michigan.. The Coast Guard reports they’ve run into a few spots on the Great Lakes where the ice is up to 8 feet thick (boulders) and that will take time to melt. The Great Lakes as a whole are at 80.4% ice cover, compared to 91% on 3/5/14. Lake Michigan was at 91.9% on 3/5/14 (image on the right) .
A Winter Weather Advisory will be in effect tomorrow for the entire area (the entire state of Michigan along with adjacent areas of Ohio, Indiana, Illinois and Wisconsin will under an Advisory). The Advisory will be in effect for our area from 7 am to 8 pm. Icy roads could continue to be a problem after 8 pm as temperatures fall and there is still a chance of a little light snow or freezing drizzle through the evening.
High of 29, low of 15 today in G.R. That makes 19 days in a row that the average temperature has been 8 or more degrees colder than average.
These are MODIS satellite pics (from NOAA Coastwatch) of Lake Michigan, Superior and Huron from Thursday PM. You can see a band of lake-effect snow coming down Lake Michigan. That band produced up to 8″ of snow in Chicago and 6″ in Milwaukee. There is still quite a bit of open water on Lake Michigan, but Huron and Superior are iced up enough to end the threat of lake-effect snow. You’d still get a small amount of warming (maybe 2-3 degrees) with the air moving across those lakes. That band of snow over Lake Michigan has been coming into Berrien Co. As the wind turns west and then southwest, the band will come onshore and dissipate. A dusting of snow is possible near the lake. Most of the day should be partly sunny and cold.
Great Lakes ice: Total – 84.1%, Superior – 94.9% , Michigan 58.9% , Huron 95.2% , Erie 95.6%, Ontario 53.6%, (links will update automatically with fresh numbers). This is the first time since the late 70s that we have had two consecutive years with Great Lakes ice reaching 80%. The strong winds we had on Tuesday didn’t break up much ice. Here’s Great Lakes water temperature over the past 5 years.
Great Lakes water levels: Lake Michigan/Huron is down one inch in the past month (precipitation is for the most part sitting on the ground and not running off into the rivers with the cold temperatures), up 21″ in the last year and it’s now 8″ higher than average for late Feb. The level of Lake Superior is down 2″ in the last month, up 8″ in the last year and 7″ above the long-term average. Lake St. Clair is down 3″ in the last month, down 1 inch in the past year and 3″ below the century average. Lake Erie is down 4″ in the last month, up one inch in the last year and exactly at the long-term average. Lake Ontario is down 5″ in the last month (open water for decent evaporation and little runoff coming into the lake with the cold temperatures), down 6″ in the last year and 6″ below the century average. The buildup of ice in the St. Clair and Detroit Rivers has caused the water level of Lake St. Clair and Lake Erie to drop in the last few weeks. The outflow on the St. Marys, the St. Clair, the Detroit and the Niagara Rivers are all expected to be above average in March.
Also: Lake Superior ice caves are open to the public. Super-Mackinac yacht race scheduled for July 11 will cover 568 miles. Confederate treasure in Lake Michigan? Cruise ship coming to the Great Lakes this summer.
Great Lakes ice cover is now greater than it was one year ago. This year we are at 82.3% compared to 81.6% last year. For the individual Great Lakes: Suuperior 91.8%, Michigan 61.3%, Huron 92.2%, Erie 96.7% and Ontario 74.8%. With the Arctic cold continuing thru the end of the month, we could set a new satellite era record for Great Lakes ice extent. Wind will be a factor. Strong winds can break up ice quickly. Calm winds can cause ice to form and then firm more rapidly.
The Winter Weather Warning and the inland counties of the Winter Storm Warning have now been put into a Wind Chill Warning. That will be in effect until 11 am. The Winter Storm Warning for the lakeshore counties continues until 10 pm. If the snow continues to ease back and shift a little west, the lakeshore counties will also switch to a Wind Chill Warning after 10 PM. The Blizzard Warning for Berrien and Cass Co. plus much of N. Indiana will continue until 10 pm. At 8 pm, moderate to heavy snow was reported at Muskegon and Benton Harbor. Within the past hour, winds gusted to 36 mph at S. Haven and 32 mph at Ludington. Grand Rapids is 6° with a wind chill of -13°. The north wind continues to bring down colder air. At Mackinac Island, they report a temperature of -8° with a wind chill of -31°. Pic. on the left is the MODIS Western Great Lakes satellite picture from this afternoon. You can see the dominant lake-effect band starting over Lake Superior and getting “double feeded” over Lake Michigan before pounding the east shore of Lake Michigan. Click on the images to enlarge.
Shiverin’ Snowman! The GFS (caribou) gives G.R. a low temperatures of -24.1°F next Sunday morning!! I don’t think I’ve ever seen it forecast a temp. that low for G.R. Keep in mind that the coldest we’ve ever officially been in G.R. is -24° and that was waaaaaay back on Feb. 13 and 14, 1899! In recent decades, the coldest in G.R. was -22°F in Jan. 1994. The GFS-plot has -23°. The European model gives G.R. low temps. of -6° Tuesday am, -12° Friday am, -10° next Sunday am and -8° on the 18th. To get that cold it generally has to be clear and calm at night with fresh snow on the ground and a very cold air mass. Since we haven’t been colder than -22° in the last 116 years, it’s likely that the model is too cold, so take the model with a grain of snow. The European would give G.R. 4″ of total new snow thru the 17th (that’s at the airport), the GFS (caribou) gives G.R. 5.4″ of snow (keep in mind that the model prints out snow at a 10-1 ratio of snow to precipitation…but given the cold temps. we might expect closer to a 20:1 ratio, so snowfall over the period might be up to double that. The models are forecasting extreme cold from the Great Lakes to the Northeast. In any case, this is going to be a cold period coming up. Do what you can to make sure your ready. Have a warm place for your pets/animals to be with (unfrozen) water, have the firewood ready to go if you heat with wood, feed the birds – the long stretches of cold, snowy weather can be hard on them, make sure fire hydrants are clear, make sure your vehicle and furnace are ready for the cold. The image is the Climate Prediction Center’s 8-14 day outlook issued Sunday PM. Note the dark blue, indicating a near certain chance of below average temperatures over the Eastern U.S. over the next two weeks. It’ll be interesting to see the extent of ice on the Great Lakes by around 2/21.
Also as of 1 am, Boston officially up to 8.3″ for the storm so far. That’s 57″ in the past 2 weeks! On the cusp of breaking the 30-day all-time snow record with two weeks to go! About 1,400 US flights already canceled for Monday, inc. over 400 at Logan Airport in Boston. They’ll likely go over a foot from this storm. Storm battering northern California. Trees, power lines downed across parts of Mendocino County, CA. Much of the country was unseasonably warm Sunday afternoon. High temps Sunday: 71 Richmond VA, 57 Indianapolis, 68 St. Louis, 62 Billings MT, 64 Rapid City SD, 80 in SW Oklahoma.
So far this winter, New York City has had more snow (20.1″) than Anchorage, Alaska (17.6″). Very fluffy snow was experienced at NWS Marquette on 2/8. The snow to water ratio was 74″ of snow to 1″ of water. Saturday, Marquette had 9.2″ of snow. CFSv2 model looks cold for March – I personally think the cold here is too extensive. Cool is probably the way to go over the Great Lakes, which will have a substantial ice cover as we start March. You’ve heard me say it before and I’ll say it again, if ever you want a cool pattern…it’s late winter/early spring…to keep the blossoms from coming out too soon and to keep tornadoes south of our area. Florida gets cool this weekend.
From NBC News: “The Taliban considered forecasting to be sorcery. They fired the country’s 600 or so professional meteorologists, shelled the Afghan Meteorological Authority, and burned the country’s vast climatological archives.”
Click on the images to enlarge. These are the MODIS satellite pictures from this afternoon (from NOAA Coastwatch). On the left is Lake Michigan, in the center we have Lake Ontario and on the right is Lake Erie. Great Lakes ice is now up to 57%. We don’t have quite as much ice as last year at this time, but ice cover is still well above average. The middle image is a graph of weekly ice cover this season. The ice cover usually peaks in early March and and with the colder than average air this coming week…we are seeing ice cover reach the average maximum nearly a month before the average date of peak ice. On the right, we have Lake Michigan ice cover, which stands at 36% as of this Thursday evening. Here’s the current ice extent for Lake Superior (56% as I write this), Lake Huron (67%), Lake Erie (95%) and Lake Ontario (33%). Lake Erie is the southernmost Great Lake, but usually gets the highest percentage of surface ice cover, because it’s a relatively shallow lake (average depth 62 feet).
The water level of Lake Michigan/Huron is down 1″ in the last month, but up 21″ in the last year. The lake(s) remains 8″ above the January average water level. Lake Superior is down 4″ in the last month, but up 9″ year-to-year. Superior is now 9″ above the historic average for February. Lake Erie is down 5″ in the last month, up 5″ in the last year and now 3″ above the average for January. Lake Ontario is down 1″ in the last month, down 4″ year-to-year and is now 2″ below the long-term February average. It’s curious that Lake St. Clair dropped 16″ in the last 4 weeks. That’s due to a build-up of ice constricting the flow out of Lake Huron into Lake St. Clair. The water levels in general are dropping due to below average non-lake-effect precipitation and the fact that it’s been below freezing, so the precipitation sits on the ground as snowcover rather than draining into the lakes. All the connecting rivers between the Great Lakes are running at above average flow, except for the St. Clair and Detroit Rivers, where volume has been reduced due to ice build-up at the South end of Lake Huron. The Coast Guard Cutter Mackinaw is helping to ease pressure in the St. Clair River area. The water level of Lake Superior is at the highest level since 1997 and the level of Lake Michigan-Huron is highest since 1998.
Great Lakes news: Obama budget cuts Great Lakes clean-up budget by 50 million dollars. Keep a lookout for snowy owls. For the 2nd winter in a row, the owls are coming farther south than usual. Pretty pics. of Lake Michigan in winter. Wind turbines threaten eagles and other endangered species.
Great Lakes ice cover has reached 50%. This is a little behind last year at this time (around 72%), but ahead of average. Here’s the latest figures for the individual lakes: Superior (45.2 as I write this – link will update), Michigan (35.6%), Huron (61.6%), Erie (93.9%), Ontario (31.5%). Here’s a record of Lake Michigan ice cover this winter. Last year on this date, the Great Lakes had a 71.6% ice cover and Lake Michigan was at 41.4%. Lake Erie has about the same amount of ice as last year in the first week of February and Lake Ontario has more ice than at this time last year. This year the coldest air has been centered a little farther east than last winter, where the coldest air relative to average was in Wisconsin.
Also, a plane has crashed into a TV tower in Lubbock, Texas, one fatality – the pilot of the small plane. The JAMSTEC and CFSv2 weather models are forecasting a cool early spring the the Great Lakes. More significant snow for New York and New England. Afternoon run of the GFS model snowfall forecast. Some snow for us, but heavier snow for N. Minnesota, the western U.P and New England. New England viewed from the Space Station.
First, check out what happened four years ago today! Here’s more on the Groundhog Day Blizzard, and the Wikipedia Article on the Storm. Today is Groundhog Day. Legend has it that if the groundhog sees his shadow this morning, there will be six more weeks of winter. If he doesn’t, winter is pretty much over (which is really hardly ever the case on Feb. 2 in Michigan). It all began in Germany with hedgehogs and badgers. The Pennsylvania Dutch (who are really German) didn’t see any hedgehogs or badgers when they arrived in Pennsylvania, so they gave the prognosticating assignment to the local groundhog, or woodchuck (BTW, someone figured out how much wood a woodchuck could chuck).
The most famous groundhog is Punxsutawney Phil. Phil’s been giving us the long-range forecast from Gobbler’s Knob in Pennsylvania since 1887. Phil’s recent predictions are posted here. Phil correctly did predict six more weeks of winter in 2012 and 2014, but missed with his early spring forecast in 2013. Phil has predicted six more weeks of winter 102 of the last 116 years. Today he saw his shadow (despite cloudy skies in Punxsutawney) and proclaimed six more weeks of winter (good call Phil).
Feb. 2 is also Candlemas Day. An old saying goes: “Half the wood and half the hay, better have left on Candlemas Day”. Of course, that means that if you have half your winter provisions left at this point…you’ll make it through the winter.
Side note: You may have seen the movie Groundhog Day, with actor Bill Murray playing a TV weatherman (the movie was filmed partly in Woodstock, Illinois – about 45 miles from where Bill Murray and I grew up – he lived about 3 blocks from me on Elmwood Ave.). Bill and I went to St. Joseph’s Elementary School in Wilmette, Illinois. We caddied together, though he caddied mostly at Indian Hill C.C. and I caddied mostly at Westmoreland C.C. He’s one year older than me. Here’s a review of the movie “Groundhog Day”.
I hereby predict that Phil will see his shadow, hence 6 more weeks of winter. BTW, any groundhog that might consider coming out of its burrow here in G.R. will have to dig through a foot of snow to see daylight. Punxsutawney Phil has his own website. They’ll announce Phil’s prediction on the TODAY SHOW this morning and we’ll probably have a little story on 24-Hour News 8 at Noon and maybe at 5:30 pm.
Winter Storm Warning upgraded to include Ottawa, Kent, Ionia and Clinton Counties. Click on the graphics to enlarge. Last pic. is Meijer’s Sat. aftn.- every checkout backed up. GFS model snowfall map. NAM model snowfall map. Winter Weather Advisory is in purple color, Winter Storm Warning in pink color. Here’s details on the Winter Weather Advisory and the Winter Storm Warning. Here’s the Forecast Discussions for West Michigan and Northern Indiana. The Advisory/Warning continues until 6 am Monday morning. So, this will be a long duration event. The NWS is going for accumulations of 7-11″ for the Counties in the Warning, tapering off to 1-3″ for Mason, Lake, Osceola and Clare Counties. Accumulations of 10 inches or more are possible for the counties that border Indiana and large parts of N. Illinois, N. Indiana and N. Ohio, including the cities of Chicago, S. Bend, Fort Wayne and Cleveland. Not only will will have to deal with the snow, but temperatures will be cold enough (teens to low 20s) for the light snow to drift around in the 20-30 mph wind gusts that we’ll see. Obviously, this is going to cause some pain for those of you traveling to and from Super Bowl Parties. The Chicago NWS is going for 5-10″ of snow for NE Illinois. Here’s the Midwest Watch/Warning/Advisory Map. The heaviest snow may occur along and just south of I-80. Here’s the weather impact graphic from GRR NWS. There is a Gale Warning for Southern Lake Michigan. The NWS is calling for peak waves approaching 10-18 feet. With a northeast wind this will be mainly for NE Illinois and a small part of the shoreline of SE Wisconsin. Here’s the video briefing from NWS for northern Indiana and the Michigan counties that border Indiana. There’s a Winter Storm Warning out now for ALL of NE Illinois. Milwaukee NWS has upgraded to Winter Storm Warning (Kenosha/Racine/Milwaukee areas) and Winter Weather Advisory to match the more northerly storm track. Northern Ohio will be upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning this afternoon. GRR NWS snowfall forecast map. Cold air will pour in with a northeast wind behind the storm. It was as cold as -44 degrees in central Quebec this (Sat.) am.
Keep in mind that for wet, heavy snow – about 8″ of snow = one inch of water. For dry, light snow – apt to fall at cooler temperatures, the ratio increases to 15″ or even 20″ of snow per one inch of water. The overnight European model gives G.R. 0.81″ of precipitation. So, at 10 to 1 that would be equivilant to 8″ of snow. At a 15 to one ratio, that’s about 12″ of snow (and that’s more likely with this storm). For Big Rapids, the European model gives Big Rapids 0.34 of precipitation – so maybe 4-5″ (though even 2″ with 20 mph winds is going to cause some drifting problems). Now, for Kalamazoo at the Indiana border – it gives 1.03″ of precipitation. At 15-1 snow to water, that would be over 15″ of snow – a very major snowstorm. Storms like that are rare. But, a foot of snow with 20-30 mph wind gusts could easily bring 2-3 foot drifts and some major travel problems.
Also: After the blizzard earlier this week – New Jersey and Long Island get freezing rain from this storm. Heavy snow north of the freezing rain for New York and New England. Boston could get another foot of snow. Parts of Maine will end up with 40 inches of snow on the ground following the Saturday storm. NOAA ranks this weeks East Coast Blizzard as 26th of 423 Northeast snowstorms. Remembering the Blizzard of 1988. Cold and snowy pattern for much of Europe, blizzard now in the mountains of Scotland. The cold air extends all the way into northern Africa. Friday was 2nd wettest Jan. day ever in Tucson AZ with 1.39″ of rain. Nice (and rare clear) sunset in Seattle looking back at snow-covered Mt. Rainier. Lake-effect snow coming off the Finger Lakes in N.Y. with NNW wind. Now that’s a red sunset! Cool light pillar in Idaho.