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Click on the image to enlarge. At noon, we have clouds generally east of US 131 and sunshine to the west. The cloud area will likely shrink some during the early-mid afternoon. The clouds helped to keep areas to the east a little above freezing this morning (low temps: 37 Coldwater, 35 Lansing), while clear areas dropped below freezing: (31 S. Haven, 29 Fremont, East G.R. Fennvile, Sparta…28 Hopkins, Hudsonville…27 Ludington, Belding and Kent City…26 Benton Harbor, Houghton Lake…25 Big Rapids…24 Reed City…23 Kalamazoo Nature Center…21 Cadillac, Baldwin).
Look at the rain that fell around Palm Beach FL…up to 9.72″ south of the Port of Palm Beach.
Here’s the map that Jack linked to (The natice site appears to be down at the moment, so this will do fine) It shows the buildup of snowcover as of October 20 across the northern part of the Northern Hemisphere. The Rutgers Lab keeps track of N. Hemisphere snow cover and they reported that as of the end of September, this year ranks as #1 in 46 years of record in terms of snowcover on Sept. 30th for North America with 4.899 million sq. kilometers with snow on the ground. For Eurasia it was #8 of 46 years wtih 2,342 million sq. kilometers. For the combined N. Hemisphere it was 3rd highest in 46 years at 7.241 million sq. kilometers. It’s not just in one place, it’s everywhere – all around the N. Hemisphere. The latest analog years to the current pattern are mostly very cold and or very snowy: 1951-52, 1969-70, 1976-77, 2003-04, 2009-10, 2013-14). In the mix, we have the coldest winter of the past 110 years (1976-77), the snowiest winter ever (1951-52) and the 2nd winter ever (last winter). 1969-70 was Holland’s snowiest winter. The other two years had average snowfall (72.2″ in 09-10 and 74″ in 03-04). There is a good correlation between early snowcover in Siberia and cold winters in the Great Lakes. Remember, we have a weak El Nino, centered more toward the central Pacific and the warm pool south of Alaska that will work to keep the ridge there. The QBO is closest in value to 1976. Other notes. Corn is 87% mature, average is 97% – soybean harvest is at 30% last check -average is 78%. Honeycrisp apples are large this year and the apple crop is excellent quality this year – for some farms the best crop ever.
3 pm – The satellite loop shows skies clearing from north to south. Skies will be clear just about everywhere by sunset, setting us up for a cold night with scattered frost. Here’s the Point Betsie Lighthouse – pic. from Jack Martin. Cloudy, but mostly dry tonight. There’s a chance of a very light shower/sprinkle tonight and early tomorrow, mainly west of U.S. 131. We’ll gradually become partly sunny tomorrow…more sun late than in the AM. We’ll have a chance of frost both Tues. night and Weds. night. There’s just a slight chance of a light shower on Friday (only 30%). Temperatures moderate late in the week. We’ve got out high temps. in the low-mid 60s and partly to mostly sunny for Sat. and Sun. Monday could be th warmest day – approaching 70 with a chance of a shower (or isolated t-shower). The PNA goes negative, which should bring some rain (and snow in Cascades to northern Rockies) to the Pacific NW. The QBO is about as negative as I’ve ever seen it…the last time it was this low in October was 1976 (and that was followed by the coldest winter of the last 100 years in G.R.). The European weeklies keep us relatively mild into early Nov. Remember, it’s still fall – meteorological winter starts Dec. 1 and astronomical winter 3 weeks after that, so winter patterns often don’t lock in until late Nov./early Dec. LOTS of snow across Siberia and N. Canada already…another sign that this winter will be on the cold side in the Great Lakes.
Also, 5.0 earthquake NW of Fairbanks, AK. Rainbow of the Day. Gonzalo hits Newfoundland (pics. and peak gusts), will head to Scotland next. Hurricane Ana will move around the Hawaiian islands with remnant moisture heading towards Vancouver, Canada. Flooding in the Canary Is. 4″ new snow in Anchorage, AK. Ravens and beaver cause power outages. Storm Prediction Center forecasts for the Moore Tornado. Summit Camp, Greenland this (Mon.) morning – temperature 45 below zero!
Mostly cloudy skies to start Tuesday. The clouds will break up some from north to south during the PM. There could be a sprinkle or an isolated patch of mist. The most likely area to see that would be the SW corner of the state. We’ll be a little cooler today with aftn. temps. in the low 50s. Also – the remains of Gonzalo will give the U.K. and Ireland rain and wind gusts to 25-50 mph Mon. night and Tues. The temperature at Ulan Bator, Mongolia dropped to -9F this Monday AM. Check out this waterspout in Madeira.
Here’s Grand Rapids radar and Northern Michigan radar. Storm Total Rainfall will show the heaviest rain and Milwaukee looping radar. Regional radar and the Updated GRR NWS Short Term Discussion. More links: Grand Rapids radar, Northern IndianahC radar, Chicago radar, Detroit radar and Milwaukee radar. Here’s regional radar, the College of DuPage Radar Map (pick any radar in the U.S.), College of DuPage Grand Rapids radar, the West Michigan Lightning Tracker, National Lightning Tracker, the local warning/advisory map and the National warning/watch/advisory map, a surface weather map. You can checkout the latest Grand Rapids NWS discussion, the Northern Indiana NWS discussion (includes the Michigan Counties that border Indiana), the discussion for Northern Lower Michigan, and Eastern Lower Michigan. Check out Storm Total Precipitation. Here’s the Spyglass Condos Weather Station the S. Haven GLERL station, the Muskegon GLERL station, the Grand Haven Steelheaders webcam and weather station, and the weather station at Holland State Park. Check out the Maranatha Webcam at Lake Michigan and links to webcams. Here’s the infrared satellite loop (night) and the visible satellite loop (daytime), Lake Michigan water temperatures (summer). Here’s recent storm reports from SW Michigan, Northern Michigan, NE Illinois, SE. Wisconsin, Upper Michigan and E. Michigan. Check out the wind and wave height at the South Mid-Lake Michigan Buoy (Apr. to Nov. only), the North Mid-Lake Michigan Buoy (Apr. to Nov. only), the buoy at Big Sable Point near Ludington and the weather station on the beach at St. Joseph. Here’s Michigan wind gusts from MesoWest, data from the MAWN agricultural weather stations and Weather Underground (data at the bottom from private weather stations). Here’s the Consumers Energy Power Outage Map.
Here’s three pics. taken by my daughter #2 (Marie). I’ll guess these are Allegan Co. The wind and rain knocked down some leaves…but we are about as close to peak color as we’re going to get. This looks like a mostly dry week. The models are printing out just a couple hundredths of an inch of rain on Monday/Monday night, then pretty much dry into next weekend. Temperatures start out a little colder than average today, then rise to near to even slightly above average. It’ll be nice to see more sunshine after a fairly cloudy week last week. It’ll be a good Sunday to pick up a pumpkin or some sweet Michigan apples (one of the biggest and best crops we’ve ever had).
Also: Northern Lights in Norway on Sat. Rainfall from Tropical Storm Ana in Hawaii: 11.45″ Keaumo, 7.95″ Pali, 5.06″ Hilo. No significant winds with Ana. The fastest gust I saw at 2 am EDT was 37 mph. Honolulu isup to 2.31″ of rain from Ana (Oct. average is 1.84″). Here’s Hawaii radar. 100F Friday in Sao Paulo, Brazil.
Freeze pretty much everywhere in W. Michigan this AM: 32 Holland Airport, 30 Grand Rapids, Battle Creek, Coldwater, Fennville, 29 Lansing, Muskegon, Kalamazoo, Allendale, 28 Hudsonville, Grandville Charlotte, Sturgis, Fremont, Mt. Pleasant, 27 Marshall, Hastings, Albion, Alma, 26 Big Rapids, 25 Cadillac, 24 Kalamazoo Nature Center, 22 Leota, 21 Stambaugh (in the U.P.).
There is a Freeze Warning for Ottawa, Allegan, Van Buren, Kalamazoo, Cass, St. Joseph and Branch Counties plus much of Northern Indiana and Northwest Ohio. The NWS only issued the Freeze Warning for counties where large areas have not had frost yet. Other counties have had frost. It’ll be a cold start for the Grand Rapids Marathon with temperatures in the 30s. My daughter #3 will be doing the half marathon. At 10 pm it’s already 35 in Fremont and 39 in Kalamazoo. A light wind off the lake has Benton Harbor and S. Haven at 45 deg. At this hour, we have some thin high clouds moving from NW to SE across the area and we still have low lake-effect clouds moving north to south down Lake Michigan and across N. Indiana and NW Ohio. The band over Lake Michigan could move inland Sun. AM as the wind turns from NW to W and then SW. Sunday will be a dry day, but cool with PM temps. in the low 50s. There may be a passing light shower on Monday, but much of the week should be dry with temps. moderating to the low-mid 60s late in the week.
Watch the time lapse of Hurricane Gonzalo. Sunset from Lookout Mt. TN. Here’s a damage report from Bermuda – it could have been worse. With satellites, radar, better weather forecasts and tougher building codes, damage is significantly less than it would have been 75 years ago.
I’ll leave radar up with a few lingering showers. This is the 6th day in a row with at least a trace of rain. G.R. has had 4.28″ of rain this month and 33.9″ for the year. We’ve had just 5.8% sunshine over the last 5 days. At 3 pm, Grayling was reporting light snow and Bellaire “mixed precipitation”. They both have 40° dewpoints, so I’m very skeptical.
The overnight run of the NAM (car.) gives G.R. just 0.02″ of rain today and 0.04″ on Monday. We dip to 31 Sunday AM. The GFS-plot has 0.03″ today and 0.08″ Monday (then dry from Tues. to Sat. of next week. It now gives G.R. our first snow on 11/2 – again way too far out to put any stock in that. I’ve said I think we get more snow this Nov. than any Nov. since at least 2008 and maybe 2002.
Here’s Grand Rapids radar and Northern Michigan radar. Storm Total Rainfall will show the heaviest rain and Milwaukee looping radar. Regional radar and the Updated GRR NWS Short Term Discussion. More links: Grand Rapids radar, Northern Indiana radar, Chicago radar, Detroit radar and Milwaukee radar. Here’s regional radar, the College of DuPage Radar Map (pick any radar in the U.S.), College of DuPage Grand Rapids radar, the West Michigan Lightning Tracker, National Lightning Tracker, the local warning/advisory map and the National warning/watch/advisory map, a surface weather map. You can checkout the latest Grand Rapids NWS discussion, the Northern Indiana NWS discussion (includes the Michigan Counties that border Indiana), the discussion for Northern Lower Michigan, and Eastern Lower Michigan. Check out Storm Total Precipitation. Here’s the Spyglass Condos Weather Station the S. Haven GLERL station, the Muskegon GLERL station, the Grand Haven Steelheaders webcam and weather station, and the weather station at Holland State Park. Check out the Maranatha Webcam at Lake Michigan and links to webcams. Here’s the infrared satellite loop (night) and the visible satellite loop (daytime), Lake Michigan water temperatures (summer). Here’s recent storm reports from SW Michigan, Northern Michigan, NE Illinois, SE. Wisconsin, Upper Michigan and E. Michigan. Check out the wind and wave height at the South Mid-Lake Michigan Buoy (Apr. to Nov. only), the North Mid-Lake Michigan Buoy (Apr. to Nov. only), the buoy at Big Sable Point near Ludington and the weather station on the beach at St. Joseph. Here’s Michigan wind gusts from MesoWest, data from the MAWN agricultural weather stations and Weather Underground (data at the bottom from private weather stations). Here’s the Consumers Energy Power Outage Map.
8:45 pm – An American Eagle Plane that has arrived at the Ford Airport in G.R. from Dallas, Texas was held on the runway for about an hour. Three people on the plane had become ill. The plane was being surrounded with emergency vehicles. The three individuals were taken to a local hospital for evaluation. Stay with 24-Hour News 8 and www.woodtv.com for the latest.
Saturday AM - Dang! Look at this! The eye of the storm passed directly over Bermuda! At 8:55 pm, the airport reported an ESE wind at 74 mph with a gust to 96 mph. An hour later the wind was S at 10 mph and no gusts. At 11:55 pm, they reported the wind was W at 93 mph with a peak gust to 113 mph. One report of sustained wind to 105 mph with a gust to 127 mph (Commissioner’s Point). The radar image is from shortly after 6 pm. Here’s a recent radar loop as the storm is moving out of the area. Here’s the latest weather observation from Bermuda. This could be the strongest hurricane ever to hit the tiny island. Hurricane Fay did some damage to Bermuda earlier this month. Here’s more from the Bermuda Weather Service. Tweet from inside the eye of the storm on Bermuda: “Now in the eye of the storm. Dead calm outside. Tree frogs chirping. No rain. Little wind. Incredibly eery.” Most of the island is without power. Video from the eyewall this evening. Webcam from Bermuda – it should be interesting when the sun comes up in the AM. Check out the facebook page of the National Weather Service of Bermuda. Here’s a satellite view of the storm as it races toward far eastern Canada. Closer view.
8:45 pm – G.R. down to 51 degrees, Cadillac is 45°. Scattered light showers/rain across the area – no lightning now. We’re getting gusts to 20-30 mph. The cold air is coming down…wind gusts along the Lake Superior shoreline have been running 30-40 mph with temps. in the low 40s.
Click on the graphic to enlarge. This is the graph of the water temperature of Lake Superior since Jan. 2009. You can see the lake has been consistently colder this year. The lake temperature generally peaks in the first two weeks of August. A period of relatively calm weather may cause the temperature to spike. It then comes back down when stronger winds mix up colder water from below the surface. Lake Superior is 3.5 degrees below normal. Lake Huron and Michigan are roughly 2 degrees cooler than average for mid-October.
The water level of Lake Michigan/Huron is up one inch in the last month, at a time when the lake levels are usually falling. The lake is 4″ above the long-term average level for October and 20″ higher than it was one year ago. The highest lake level in October occurred in 1986 (remember the Flood of ’86?) when we had several homes fall into Lake Michigan due to beach erosion. Officially, we had 11.85″ of rain in G.R. in Sept. 1986. Some areas from N. Kent Co. into Newaygo Co. had close to 20″ of rain that month. I looked at the weather that fall and saw that Nov. 1986 was about four degrees colder than average in G.R., though we had below average snowfall that winter. I had mentioned earlier that there were some similarities to the cold, snowy winters of the late 1970s. We had the coldest winter of the last 100 years in 1976-77 – then we had the Blizzard of ’78 the following winter, followed by the coldest February and 5th coldest March that G.R. has ever had. That winter was a weak El Nino and it had above average snowfall in Nov., Dec. and Jan. (in G.R.). The winter of 1978-79 brought Grand Rapids well above average snowfall (96″) and significantly colder temperatures for all 3 winter months.
The water level of Lake Superior is unchanged in the last month, but up 10″ year-to-year and 8″ above the century average. Lake Erie is down 3″ in the last month, but up 7″ in the last year and 8″ higher than the October average. Lake Ontario is down 7″ in the last month (Erie and Ontario fluctuate more than the other 3 Great Lakes), down 2″ year-to-year and it’s now 1″ below the century average. Lake St. Clair is 14″ higher than one year ago and 9″ above the October average. Outflow from Lake Superior down the St. Mary’s River remains well above average. The outflow from Lake St. Clair down the Detroit River and down the Niagara River from Lake Erie into Lake Ontario is also expected to remain above average.
Also: Because the ice caves in the Apostle Islands of Lake Superior were so popular last winter, the National Park Service is proposing charging $5 a person to go see them. This town has more Asian Carp than another other place on Earth. Pirates of the Great Lakes? Some benefits of the higher water levels. Note – piers and breakwaters will be dangerous places Friday night and Saturday, as strong NW winds kick up. Waves are expected to peak at 5-10 feet and will crash over the breakwaters. Winds could reach 25-40 mph. Small Craft Advisories will be up until Friday evening, then they will be upgraded to Gale Warnings.