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Flood Advisory for Muskegon Co. until 5:45 am. 1:20 am – we had a brief downpour at WOOD – Heritage Hill G.R. - 2ENE of Norton Shores reports – 2.66″ rain since 10 pm. 1.8″ in 45 minutes. Muskegon Airport had 1.49″ of rain from 11:40 pm – 12:10 am and 2.74” (a daily record) in 3 hours. 0.91″ at Big Rapids thru 1 am. 2.34″ Cloverville, 2.57″ WSW of Norton Shores, 2.22″/3 hrs. just NW of Norton Shores. Watch for local flooding. No severe weather, but some lightning and heavy rain. At 2 am cold front ran from Pentwater to Cadillac to Alpena. Pretty sharp wind shift with the front from SSW to NW.
Regional and local radar here – First, if you didn’t see my tornado piece on the 5 pm news, it’s HERE. – Chance of showers or t-showers this tonight/early tomorrow. Several tornadoes occurred SW of Green Bay, Wisconsin. They had 0.95″ of rain in 45 min. west of Chicago at Elburn IL and Ladora Ia reported 1.7″ of rain. Wind gusts hit 68 mph at Muscatine IA and there was some wind damage at Moline and Madison IL. High temps. Monday: 85 G.R. (tying highest of 2015), Kalamazoo and Battle Creek, 86 Muskegon, 87 Regional Airport at Holland, 83 Lansing, 85 Detroit (Metro). Coolest afternoon high temperature was 55 at Copper Harbor in the U.P. The high of 85 in G.R. (2 deg. above average) and the low of 61 (1 deg. below average) made it a very close to average day. Back to below average temps. for midweek.
1.65″ of rainfall in 45 minutes in Gardnerville, NV. Nevada is the driest state in the U.S. Heavy rain causing some flooding in Kansas City MO, Wichita KS and Lubbock TX.
Links: Here’s Grand Rapids radar and Northern Michigan radar, Milwaukee looping radar. Regional radar and the Updated GRR NWS Short Term Discussion. More links: Northern Indiana radar, Chicago radar, Detroit radar and Milwaukee radar.Here’s College of DuPage Radar Map (pick any radar in the U.S.), College of DuPage Grand Rapids radar, the West Michigan Lightning Tracker, National Lightning Tracker, the local warning/advisory map and the National warning/watch/advisory map, a surface weather map. You can checkout the latest Grand Rapids NWS discussion, the Northern Indiana NWS discussion (includes the Michigan Counties that border Indiana), the discussion for Northern Lower Michigan, and Eastern Lower Michigan. Here’s the Spyglass Condos Weather Station the S. Haven GLERL station, the Muskegon GLERL station, the Grand Haven Steelheaders webcam and weather station, and the weather station at Holland State Park. Check out the links to webcams. Here’s the infrared satellite loop (night) and the visible satellite loop (daytime), Lake Michigan water temperatures (summer). Here’s recent storm reports from SW Michigan, Northern Michigan, NE Illinois, SE. Wisconsin, Upper Michigan and E. Michigan. Check out the wind and wave height at the South Mid-Lake Michigan Buoy (Apr. to Nov. only), the North Mid-Lake Michigan Buoy (Apr. to Nov. only), the buoy at Big Sable Point near Ludington and the weather station on the beach at St. Joseph. Here’s Michigan wind gusts from MesoWest, data from the MAWN agricultural weather stations and Weather Underground (data at the bottom from private weather stations). Here’s the Consumers Energy Power Outage Map
Here’s the Severe Weather Outlooks from the Storm Prediction Center for today/tonight, tomorrow and the next day. The Slight Risk is west of Michigan in Wisconsin today/tonight. There is a Marginal Risk (darker green color) from Benton Harbor to Grand Rapids to Alpena. Tomorrow, there is a Marginal Risk from New Buffalo to Hastings to Saginaw. The timing of the front (coming thru early tomorrow morning when it’s cooler at the surface and we have less instability) means the chance of severe weather in Lower Michigan will be less than in Wisconsin during prime heating from mid-afternoon into the evening. The primary threat would be isolated wind damage. The morning run of the NAM model gives much of W. Michigan a t-storm late Weds. night/Thurs. AM – storms move east by around noon. This is only the fourth time that G.R. has not had more than one day of 85+ thru 7/5 (1917, 1928, 1960). At 1 pm – 81 deg. in G.R., 82 in Kalamazoo and Ionia…warmest in the state is 85 at Flint, which is 3-4 degrees warmer than surrounding stations, definitely an outlier…coolest 57 at Copper Harbor…that’s the cooler air coming for tomorrow. It’s a cooler 68 at noon at the Muskegon Beach
Monday AM water temps: 62 S. Haven, 61 Hoffmaster S.P. and Ludington, 60 Pentwater, 59 Manistee, 58 Muskegon, 54 Grand Haven, 53 Holland…the Port Sheldon buoy 61, the north mid-Lake Michigan buoy 55, the last check I had at Reeds Lake was 76 (East G.R.).
Here’s GRR radar and Great Lakes regional radar…Southern Plains radar. You get an idea where the heaviest rain will be by looking at the (dark green) flood watches on the National Hazards Map.
Here’s regional radar to see the rain across the Great Lakes. Here’s GRR radar, local lightning data, meso-discussions and current watches from SPC and a satellite loop. Here’s current Michigan temperatures, National lightning data and the latest discussion from GRR NWS. Here’s National Storm Reports for today and yesterday. Here’s a live pic. of the beach at Grand Haven.
Also: First fireworks at Wrigley Field (wonder where the ashes fell?)…So far this summer, Portland, OR, has had more 90+ degree days (14) than Atlanta (12)…map in lower right at this link shows where hurricanes develop in July with this pattern – nothing off the coast of Africa, but we have to watch for development closer to the U.S…also SW of Mexico (those storms move W-NW into the open ocean…and especially in the far western Pacific (Philippines, Guam, Taiwan, China, Japan). A few scattered t-storms in AZ and S. NV. Rainfall: 0.56″ Flagstaff AZ, 0.28″ Prescott AZ, 0.79″ Davis Az, 0.57″ Desert Rock NV. Europe sees record heat, then heavy t-storms…now cool air invades Europe.
Compared to seasonal norms, the warmest average temperature anomaly anywhere on Earth in June was just north of Green Acres, Oregon, USA. The June temperature there averaged 3.77 C (about 6.79 degrees F) warmer than seasonal norms. Compared to seasonal norms, the coolest average temperature on Earth in June was in West Antarctica along the Antarctic Peninsula near the Larsen Ice Shelf, where the average June 2015 temperature was 3.51 C (about 6.32 degrees F) cooler than normal. El Nino (warm water along the Equatorial Pacific) continues to strengthen…should peak in early winter. This pattern should bring rain to California.
These pics. are from Sunday PM – first at the Muskegon Channel, in the middle at S. Haven – busy day for boating. On the right, a pic. from Charles Russell of the reddish evening sun (his video here). We still have smoke from Canadian wildfires overhead, as you can see from the Lake Michigan MODIS satellite picture from Sunday PM. The high temp. Sunday was 84 in G.R., the warmest day since May 7th and the 2nd warmest day of 2015 so far. 84 is only one degree warmer than average for G.R. Monday we’ll top that. In this overall relatively cool pattern…everything comes together to get the warm air up to Michigan. Enjoy it if you like it warm – it’ll be a good day for the beach, pool or water park. When I was a kid, on days like this we’d run through the nearest sprinkler (before they were on by timer at night). The warm air won’t last. Showers and t-showers will arrive after sunset, heralding the arrival of another cool and comfortable airmass for midweek. The showers clear by midday Tuesday in most areas, so both Monday evening and Tuesday evening activities should be dry. We’re dry and comfortable Weds. and Thurs…a little warmer with a chance of a few scattered showers and storms next weekend. I’ll be in the Chicago area next weekend as we celebrate my mother’s 96th birthday.
I had a great day. Good sermon in church (we’re going thru the Beatitudes)…then daughter 2 and I took the kayaks up to Stony Lake. We paddled around the lake and had a picnic supper. Lots of people there enjoying the day. Fireworks this evening courtesy of my next door neighbors. These pics. of Lake Michigan beaches illustrate where and when it can be dangerous to swim due to currents. Strong typhoons in the western Pacific this week. Track of Typhoon Chan-hom into mainland China. WOW! Snow in Russia in mid-summer! Donner und Blitzen auf Deutschland.
Picture on the left is the MODIS satellite picture from this afternoon – showing the smoke over West Michigan from wildfires well up in Canada. Note the white cumulus clouds that form over the land, but not over the cooler water. The second shot is shortly before sunset this evening at Bostwick Lake in Kent Co. The sun is dimmer and a yellowish-orange through the smoke layer. The third pic. is the light at the end of the breakwater in Muskgon, poking through shallow fog. The fog formed over the unusually cold water. The east wind a couple days ago pushed the warmer surface water out toward the middle of the lake, allowing very cold water from below to rise to the surface near shore. Water temps. today: Mears 56, Muskegon 52, Grand Haven 43 (!), Holland 52, Saugatuck 49, S. Haven 54. Waves tomorrow on Lake Michigan should only be aroun 10-16″. Here’s a nice sunset pic. from Charles Russell. Thunderstorm gust front sends beach umbrellas and awnings sailing – dangerous. Purple-heavy rainbow. A mystery on the dwarf planet.
At 2 am – kp index up to 6 – faint aurora could be seen even down into lower Michigan at a 6 – it’s a little smoky.
The high temperature in G.R. was 81 today. The average is 83, so we have now had 12 consecutive days with temperatures cooler than average (we’re savin’ money on a.c.). The first 4 days of July have been 9-9-9-4 degrees cooler than average. The rest of the month could be exactly average and we’d still end the month a degree cooler than average. Five out of 6 months this year have been cooler than average and 2015 is now more than 3 degrees cooler than average. The high temperature at the beach at Muskegon was 65.5. The water temp. of a couple of inland lakes I checked was around 75. It’s been pretty calm around here. Here’s the average wind in G.R. each of the last 7 (24-hour) days: 5.3, 6.4, 6.6, 7.5, 6.5, 3.3, 4.2 mph. That’s an average of 5.7 mph. Warmest day of 2015 so far was 85 on 5/7 – we could reach that today (Sun.). We had no rain on the first six days of June in G.R. and if we can hold the rain off until after Monday night, we’ll go the first six days of July without rain.
The Arctic icemelt has been a little slower than average the past few weeks. We may get to the greatest ice extent in 10 years during late July or early August (graph at link from the Danish Meteological Institute). This is mainly due to cold water and a slower melt around Greenland. Arctic ice thickness now greatest for the date since 2006. Total global sea ice is slightly above average.
“The legal separation of the 13 Colonies from Great Britain actually occurred on July 2, 1776, when the 2nd Continental Congress voted to approve a resolution of independence (from Great Britain).After voting for independence, Congress turned its attention to the Declaration of Independence, a statement explaining this decision, which had been prepared by a Committee of Five with Thomas Jefferson as its principal author. Congress debated and revised the wording of the Declaration, finally approving it on July 4. A day earlier, John Adams had written to his wife, Abigail: “The second day of July, 1776, will be the most memorable epoch in the history of America. I am apt to believe that it will be celebrated by succeeding generations as the great anniversary festival. It ought to be commemorated as the day of deliverance, by solemn acts of devotion to God Almighty. It ought to be solemnized with pomp and parade, with shows, games, sports, guns, bells, bonfires, and illuminations, from one end of this continent to the other, from this time forward forever more.”
His prediction was off by two days, but it’s pretty much what many of us will do today. From the outset, Americans celebrated independence on July 4, the date shown on the much-publicized Declaration of Independence, rather than on July 2, the date the resolution of independence was approved in a closed session of Congress. Historians have long disputed whether Congress actually signed the Declaration of Independence on July 4, even though Thomas Jefferson, John Adams, and Benjamin Franklin all later wrote separately that they had signed it on that day. At one point during that day, it was noted the temperature was 76° and that a thundershower occurred at 4 pm.
In a remarkable coincidence, both John Adams and Thomas Jefferson, the only signers of the Declaration of Independence later to serve as President, died on the same day: July 4, 1826, which was the 50th anniversary of the Declaration. Although not a signer of the Declaration of Independence, but another Founding Father who became a President, James Monroe, also died on July 4 – in 1831, thus becoming the third President in a row who died on July 4th. Calvin Coolidge, the 30th President, was born on July 4, (in 1872), and is the only President to have been born on Independence Day.”
Here’s fireworks and lightning in the same shot. Lightning just behind Cinderella’s castle at Disneyworld. (a.k.a. King’s Stefan’s castle). This pic. is even better! 0.91″ of rain in 30 min. on Upper Cline Creek, N of Phoenix AZ. Long-range looks slightly cooler than average. Wenatchee, WA, broke its July 3 high temp record with 106F; old record: 101, 1922. Berlin, Germany could hit 100 today. 6.3″ of rain yesterday in Tupelo MS – up to 8″ in N. Alabama. Smoke from wildfires in Canada making the sky milky wite instead of bright blue in W. Michigan.
Here’s 3 midday pics. from the GLERL cameras at Muskegon (lots of boats going in and out of the channel today), S. Haven (lots of people on the beach, very few swimming in the cold water) and Chicago (a couple sailboats). Water temps. taken this morning: 42 Grand Haven (really!), 50 Holland, 64 Saugatuck, 58 Orchard Beach-Manistee, 49 Port Sheldon buoy, 44 north Lake Michigan buoy, 55 S. Haven buoy, 63 Benton Harbor buoy, 55 Michigan City, IN, 59 Lake Forest IL.
Air temps. at 1 pm: 72 G.R., 71 Kalamazoo and S. Haven Airport, 73 Muskegon Airport…63 Muskegon Lighthouse, 57 S. Haven Lighthouse, 61 Chicago water intake, 73 Chicago O’Hare.
Low temps. this am: 50 G.R. (average 62), 50 Muskegon, 51 Holland, 53 Kalamazoo (airport -46 at the Nature Center, a cool spot on a calm, clear night), 36 Leota (Clare Co.), 41 Baldwin, 42 Houghton Lake, 43 Cadillac, 44 Mt. Pleasant, Hart, 45 Alma, Reed City, 46 Big Rapids, Manistee, Belding, 47 Charlotte, Ludington, 48 Lansing, East G.R., Flint, 49 Hastings and Hudsonville.
Severe weather today in the Southern U.S. – already two EF0 tornadoes at Old Hickory TN. Dust from the Saharan Desert of N. Africa moving west across the Atlantic and into the Southern U.S. Tropical system passing south of Hawaii could bring showers next weekend. Big storm moving into Disneyworld. Empire St. Building in red, white and blue. After reaching 106 F today, Las Vegas tied the all-time record stretch of consecutive days at or above 105 F, which stands at 21. Cowabunga dude!
The average temperature for Jan. thru June 2015 in G.R. is 40.36°. That’s 3.28° below average. The coldest year G.R. ever had was 1917 with an average temp. of 44.6°. From Jan. to June 1917, the average temp. was 38.77°.
Enjoying the sunshine, relatively cool temperatures and nearly calm wind at Sleeping Bear Dunes near Traverse City on Lake Michigan. (picture Tues. by Michelle Olin). High water levels are becoming a little bit concern on the Great Lakes. Heavy June precipitation has shot water levels upward in the Southern Great Lakes to the highest levels in 20 years. Here’s the latest numbers:
Lake Michigan/Huron (one lake for lake-level purposes – they’re connected that the Mac. Bridge) is up 3″ in the last month and up 11″ from one year ago. The level is now 6″ higher than the July average level. Lake Superior is also up 3″ in the last month. Superior is up 2″ in the last year and stands at 7″ above the long-term average. Lake Erie rose an amazing 11″ in the last month. Erie is now 11″ higher than last year and 16″ above the average July level! Lake Ontario rose 13″ in the last month. Ontario is up 3″ year-to-year and is now 8″ above the century average. Lake St. Clair is also up 11″ in the last month and is now 16″ above the July average water levels.
Check out June rainfall and you’ll see the high amounts that fell across the southern lakes. Total precipitation in the Great Lakes Basin was 30% above average in June. Many rivers are unusually high due to heavy rainfall. The Maumee River at Waterville, Ohio is (as I write this) running at 29,500 cfs (average is 3,160 cfs). The St. Joseph River at Niles MI is at 5400 cfs (average is 2730 cfs). The Grand River at Grand Rapids is at 7490 cfs (average is 2240 cfs). The Kalamazoo River at Comstock is at 2,610 (average is 712 cfs). The River Raisin at Monroe is at 6110 cfs (average is 292 cfs). The Fox River at Green Bay WI is at 6,460 cfs (average is 3,220). All the major connecting rivers (St. Mary’s, St. Clair, Detroit, Niagara and St. Lawrence) are running above average and will continue to do so through most or all of the summer.
Also: Alewife decline threatens salmon population. Pictures of Mackinac Island. The remote lighthouse at Caribou Island. What Lake Superior looked like four months ago. Hot in the West – a little cool over the Great Lakes and Northeast – left the contiguous U.S. only slightly warmer than average in June. Seattle (93F) was hotter than Miami (92F) on Thursday. At least 4 killed, 48 injured after M6.4 earthquake strikes China’s Xinjiang region. Full moon over NYC. It’s winter in Australia. There’s still snow left in Glacier Natl. Park. Lightning in Vegas. Cold kills 20 times more people than heat. WOW! This is cold! Magnitude-6.0 earthquake 18km (11mi) NW of Santa Monica, Philippines. Good Morning, Ecuador. Neat pic. of mammatus in Texas. 25 years of the best Hubble Space photographs. American restaurant survey – big winners are Chick-fil-A and Texas Roadhouse.
The first picture was taken yesterday by Sleeping Bear Dunes west of Traverse City. The high temperatures in NW Lower Michigan were in the upper 50s to low 60s yesterday and tourists were in sweatshirts and jackets. The 2nd pic. is this morning in the Mission Peninsula just north of Traverse City. Note the blue sky and sunshine. Grand Rapids had a low temp. of 51 this morning, 10 deg. cooler than average. Other low temps: 34 Doe Lake and Spincich Lake (in the U.P.), 36 Indian River (N. Lower MI), 37 Kalkaska, 39 Manistee and Cadillac, 40 Beaver Is. and Baldwin, 41 Pellston and Grayling, 42 Houghton Lake, 43 S. Ste. Marie, 44 Ludington, Traverse City and Alpena. We’ll have a slight chance of a PM shower or t-shower Sat. afternoon N and NE of Kent Co. Next chance of rain Monday night. Look at the water temp. at Grand Haven this morning!! An east or northeast wind pushes the warmer, surface water away from shore and allows colder water to come up from below the surface. Below average sunshine in W. Michigan for June and for 2015 so far. Pocket of cold water sits over the deepest part of Lake Michigan.
0.06″ of rain yesterday at Yuma AZ – not a lot, but enough for a daily record (never been more rain on any July 1). Nice t-storms moved north to south across Scotland last night. Still a trace of snow on the highest peaks in NM. Lots of record high temps. in England yesterday – but – look how many stations have a period of record of only 10-23 years…heat wave of 1911 had hotter temps. Center of El Nino over the Central Pacific – not next to S. America. Forecasts of a a super-warm winter for the Great Lakes may disappoint. Recurving typhoons in the W. Pacific often mean a trough aloft in the Great Lakes and Northeast. No guarantee of a 90-degree day in the next 3 weeks. 3 am t-storm in Las Vegas last night…only 0.09″ of rain at the airport. Check out the palm trees that caught fire due to lightning strikes! Thunderstorms in Central CA last night…rain is welcome…lightning-caused wildfires are not.
Here’s a look at high temperatures for July 1 (Weds.). Our 70 in G.R. was 13 degrees cooler than the average of 83. The high was just 62 at the airports in S. Haven and Benton Harbor. The high on the beach at S. Haven was 58.5…the high at the Muskegon Beach was 56.3 and the high at the end of the pier at Munising in the U.P. was just 49! Other cool high temps.: 57 Grand Marais MN, 64 Milwaukee, 65 Rochester MN, 66 Mason City IA, 69 Chicago (airport), S. Bend and Buffalo NY. Here’s the water temps. of the Great Lakes. Lakes Superior and Michigan are slightly warmer than last year on July 1. Lakes Huron, Erie and Ontario are all slightly cooler than last year at this time. The north mid-Lake Michigan buoy shows a water temp. of 41.7 as I write this (south buoy not available). As I write this, the Western Lake Superior buoy shows a water temp. of 38.8, the Central Lake Superior buoy is at 37.6 and the Eastern Lake Superior buoy shows a water temp. of 37.8. Over the last 5 days, G.R. has had 42.57% of possible sunshine. June average is 61%, July average is 64%. Today is the 10th consecutive day with below average temperatures.
Also: Drone video of the Pitsch fire. Flash flooding in Sedalia, MO, with vehicles stranded, roads closed, emergency management reports…Typhoon Chan-Hom will come close to Guam…moon over the Gulf of Mexico…tornado look-alikes…hottest July day ever in London as the temp. hit 98. Paris, France hit 103 – the hottest temperature in July since 1947. Thunderstorms hit Scotland – but Michigan lightning-free.
There was a large fire at Pitsch Wrecking on Richmond NW. Here’s drone video. The smoke could be seen +10 miles away. Story here. Winds were north…so smoke moved south over the city. Smoke was visible on radar. An observer said there were several explosions. Chemicals/propane and oxygen tanks might have been at the site. There were no injuries. A brief evacuation took place east of McReynolds area of Richmond. Eleven of the 17 fire crews in G.R. responded, plus Walker.
Also: Tornado today at Lee’s Summit MO. More close video of the twister. A few spots out west had t-storms today. 1.6″ of rain at Markleeville CA, 0.52″ Reno NV, 0.16″ Blythe CA, 0.04 Riverside – just a trace at L.A. – gusts to 65 mph at Yucca Mt. and 3/4″ hail at Colorado City AZ. 0.06″ Yuma, 0.07″ Tucson and 0.63″ at Nogales AZ. Here’s today’s (Weds.) U.S. storm reports. Hot places Weds.: 89 Seattle, 95 Portland OR, 108 Medford OR, 102 Boise ID, 100 Reno NV (before a t-storm), 101 Dalhart TX…cool high temps: 63 Augusta ME, 68 Buffalo, 69 S. Bend and Chicago (arpt.), 66 Mason City IA, 65 Rochester MN, 57 Grand Marais MN, 56 Munising MI.