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Extremely heavy rain fell in parts of Hawaii from April 13-15. On the island of Kauai, the highest 3-day rainfall totals were 32.35" at Wainiha and 28.41" at Hanalei. The rain caused landslides, roads were washed out, water and electricity were cut off. Some residents had to be airlifted by helicopter. the highest rainfall on Oahu was 11.96" at the Monoa Lyon Arboretum. On the Big Island, Pahoa reproted 5.6" and Hilo 3.2". A second storm will bring more rain and there is a Winter Storm Watch for 6-12" of snow for the high mountains of the Big Island of Hawaii.
Also: Tornado takes roof off house! Snow in the Eastern U.S. this Thurs. Daffodils in NYC. Blossoms in NYC. It's been very dry in the Southern High Plains. That's led to wildfires. Guymon OK has had only 0.21" of rain since Jan. 1 and Borger TX has had only 0.05" of rain since Jan. 1. As much as 6-9" of snow has piled up in southern Wisconsin on top of what remains on the ground from last week's snowstorm. Snow in Vermont. Oh deer! Minneapolis 23.2 deg. colder for April 1-17, 2018 than April 1-17, 2017. Nice pic. of Venus and the crescent moon. Liftoff! Over 14 FEET of snow on the ground. New radar going up at San Juan, Puerto Rico. Tulips and contrails. Erie officially at 198.5" of snow this season. Erie's old record for snowiest season was 149.1" (2000-2001). The average snow for a season is 100.9". California has 8 of the top 10 most polluted cities in the U.S. Amherst tornado upgraded to EF-3. Accumulated hail in Algeria. Red snow. There were no severe weather reports in the U.S. on Weds.
The high temperature of 43 on Wednesday.was 16 degrees cooler than average. On Apr. 18, 2017 it was mostly sunny in G.R. with a high of 72...on Apr. 18, 2016 G.R. had a high of 82 and it was mostly sunny and on Apr. 18, 2015 it was mostly sunny with a high of 73 in G.R. Temperatures will be headed upward. We'll reach the upper 40s today (near 40 at Lake Michigan) with a cool, brisk northwest wind. After a cool, frosty start, we hit the mid 50s on Friday, upper 50s on Saturday, then into the 60s early next week.
This is the MODIS Lake Superior satellite picture from Weds. PM (from NOAA Coastwatch). The lake is mostly open water, but there is still some ice, mainly in some bays. There is a lot of snow around Lake Superior (up to 53" in the U.P.), That means there is the potential for flooding if the snow melts quickly. Fortunately, the pattern for the next week is mostly mild and dry.
The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Weather Advisory from 11 pm to 8 am for Ottawa, Kent, Ionia, Clinton, Allegan, Barry, Eaton, Ingham, Van Buren, Kalamazoo, Calhoun and Jackson Counties. Rain has developed across much of the area and is changing over to sleet and snow. Roads will initially just be wet, but a slick spot is possible as temperatures fall to the low 30s tonight. The snow should end before sunrise and we should see a good amount of sunshine tomorrow. Temperatures will rise to the 40s and the snow will melt tomorrow.
We're expecting up to an inch of snow on the grassy areas, mainly in a narrow band south of Grand Rapids. If the snow comes done fairly heavy, watch for slick spots to develop and also around daybreak, when temperatures will be coolest in the low 30s.
The high temperature of 34 in Grand Rapids was the coldest high temperature on any April 17 iin history (records go back to the 1800s). For Muskegon it was not only the coldest high temperature for the day, it was also the coldest high temperature this late in the season.
This map shows temperature difference from average for April 1-17. It was warmer than average in the Florida Peninsula and from California east to West Texas. The coldest air relative to average was in the Northern Plains and Great Lakes. Actually, if you include central Canada, it was the coldest area relative to average int he world. For April 1-17, the contiguous U.S. was 4.66 deg. colder than average.
This picture is from the Indianhead Ski Area near Wakefield in Upper Michigan. They are one of at least several Upper Michigan ski areas that will be open this weekend. Much of the U.P. has more snow on the ground today than at any time during the winter! Indianhead's facebook page says: "It just keeps coming down, leaving everyone with happy skiing faces! Indianhead Mountain is open this Friday-Sunday, 9am-4pm!"
This pic. from Ski Brule near Iron Mt. shows the foot and a half of snow they had on Sunday. One comment said: "The best powder I have ever experienced!" The Ski Brule website says: "SKI BRULE IS OPEN April 21 & 22. Ski Brule will continue to be open every Saturday and Sunday until snow is gone….. and there is a lot of it!" Mt. Bohemia in the Keweenaw Peninsula expects to be open the weekend of May 5-6. Mt. Bohemia has had 292" of snow this winter!
This map shows areas with snow (and ice) on the ground in N. America. With the exception of the cold waters of the Great Lakes, there is snow on the ground from Grand Rapids all the way to the North Pole. And it's not a little snow...it's a LOT of snow. Painesdale in the U.P was up to 48" of snow on the ground Monday AM - the most they have had all winter. Hoist Basin had a 45-inch snowcover. Other snow depths: Grand Marais 38", Munising 35", Houghton 32" and Marquette (airport) 30". That's going to take a long time to melt and anytime we get a north or northwest wind, it's going to be coming off snow-covered and cold water.
This is the South Haven beach at mid-afternoon Monday - with snow falling and big waves crashing over the breakwaters. The lake remains about 15" higher than average level for April. 24.2% of the contiguous U.S. had snow on the ground Monday AM - compared to just 6.3% one year ago. If you saw the Boston Marathon...at the start of the race they reported moderate rain, 39 degrees and a northeast wind at 25 mph, gusting to 33 mph. Not the best day for a run.
Heckuva snowstorm up north. Up to 33" fell near Green Bay, Wisconsin - 2nd biggest snowstorm they have ever had and more snow fell in 48-hours than had fallen in the entire winter up to that point! More Wisconsin snow totals.
Also: LOTS of hail in Slovenia. Saharan dust making for an awesome red sunset. Tornado passed by TV station. All-time snowiest start to a calendar year - over 70" since 1/1. It's the first time Cincinnati has had measurable snow on four days in April. Tornado passing by. Wildfires in western OK. You don't see snow very often in Tennessee in mid-April. Scary job. Hail in Austria. Train plowing thru snow. Hail in Algeria. Where's my car?!
Look for a slow warming trend the rest of this week.
We only reached 35° in G.R. on Monday. We'll climb up near 40° this (Tue.) afternoon, then mid-upper 40s on Wednesday and Thursday. Rain will push in Weds. evening and that will likely change to wet snow Wednesday night. It's not impossible that we could have an inch or two on the ground Thursday AM.
The sun should come back out Thurs. PM. Friday afternoon we break into the 50s and the period of partly-to-mostly sunny and warmer weather should last from Friday PM into Tuesday of the following week.
Fifteen of the first 16 days of April have been cooler than average and 35 of the last 41 days have been cooler than average. We'll probably add 5 more days to that string of days until we finally climb into the 60s early next week.
BTW, by 9 pm Monday only 93 Consumers Energy customers were without power. I was watching the Consumers Energy Outage Map over the weekend and Consumers did an awesome job getting everyone back on line. Keep in mind they're dealing with strong winds, the possibility of breaking branches, freezing rain, heavy, wet snow.
Don't forget to leave a few extra dollars in the budget for this month's heating bill. Like I said, this April has been as been nearly 11° colder than average.
Here's a look at the coldest Aprils we've ever had in West Michigan. At this point, 2018 is at the top of the list...by a LOT.
In fact, so far, February of 2017 with an average temperature of 34.7° was actually warmer than April has been so far!
Keep in mind we will shift to a warmer pattern next weekend and average temperatures will go up...so our 34.3° will go higher.
The latest 6-10 day temperature outlook from the Climate Prediction Center continues to give us a little (not a lot like now) colder than average temperatures for the period April 22-26. While it won't be warm by April standards, just getting temperatures back to the average low 60s by Sunday will make it feel like spring.
Here's a look at high temperatures Monday. It never got above freezing at Ludington.
The high of 35° in Grand Rapids was 24° colder than our average high of 59°. Including today, this month of April is 10.8° colder than average.
The Midwest high temperature map shows the unseasonably cold air covers much of the Midwest, Great Lakes and Northeast. Afternoon temps. will be 35° to 40° on Tuesday.
We may not be done with snow yet, as rain may change to snow Wednesday night, though accumulations would be light, on the order of an inch or two.
The Winter Storm Warning has ended in our area, but it continues thru 8 pm Monday for northern Lower Michigan and Upper Michigan, where an additional 4-7" of snow is possible.
Snow showers are likely through Monday night and perhaps Tuesday AM, but any accumulations will be light and mainly on grassy areas. Temperatures most of the time will be in the low-mid 30s. While most main roads have been just wet overnight, there is still a sleety-slush on many side streets and rural roads from Kent, Ottawa and Ionia counties to the north. That's the reason why there are so many school closings for Monday. The farther north you go, the better the chance of slick spots on the roads.
Monday will be a breezy and chilly day with temps. in the low-mid 30s much of the day. We may come close to 40 late Tuesday, then into the 40s for Weds. and Thurs. and 50s for Fri. and Sat., so we will see a gradual warming trend this week.
Also: Up to 30" of snow near Green Bay, Wisconsin. This was the 3rd biggest snowstorm EVER in Green Bay history.
The Winter Storm Warning continues until 5 p.m.
Temperatures at 2 p.m. (going up very, very slowly at mid-PM): 38 Benton Harbor, 36 Coldwater, 35 S. Haven, 34 Kalamazoo, 33 Battle Creek and Holland, 32 G.R., Ionia, Lansing and Muskegon, 31 Fremont, 29 Big Rapids and Ludington, 26 Cadillac and Houghton Lake.
Radar shows the mixed precipitation moving to the north. As precipitation becomes light and scattered and clouds thin a bit, temps. should continue to rise a few degrees during the late afternoon. Then we go below freezing again this evening, so icy patches will occur and that will be the case through mid-morning tomorrow. All the precipitation will change to snow showers tonight and those will continue into Monday night.
Drive carefully. Main roads are improving a little from the I-96 corridor to the south. Icy patches remain to the north.
24.6% of the contiguous U.S. had snow on the ground this AM. This compares to 7.9% on 4/15/2017, 7.1% on 4/15/2016 and 7.0% on 4/15/2015. They have snow showers now in Boston, just hours ahead of the Boston Marathon. Last year on 4/15, the high temperature in G.R. was 80 degrees!
Snowcover: 1" Grand Rapids and Grandville, Muskegon, Gladwin, Detour Village, 2" Fremont, Moran, 3" Houghton Lake and West Branch, 4" Beulah, E. Tawas, Benzonia, Kingsley and Ontonagon, 5" Harrisville, Norway, Manistique and Drummond Is., 6" Luzerne, 7" Traverse City, Gladwin, Garden Corners, 9" Grayling, 10" Alpena (airport), Champion, 11" Iron Mt. and Cooks, 12" Charlevoix and Michigamme, 13" S. Ste. Marie, Mancelona, Ironwood and Rapid River, 14" Lewiston and Newberry, 16" E. Jordan, Watersmeet and Jacobsville, 17" Gaylord (most in Lower MI), 19" Paulding and Marquette (airport), 23" Herman, 25" Houghton, 28" Munising, 32" Grand Marais, 36" Painesdale.
Season snowfall in the U.P.: Tamarack 304.1", Painesdale 291.8", Houghton Co. 288.7", Keweenaw Co. 276", Redridge 248.0"...and it's still coming!
The Winter Storm Warning has been extended through Sunday PM for freezing rain and sleet (changing to wet snow Sunday evening). Slick roads have caused numerous accidents overnight. Temperatures will be at or below freezing in the early morning north of I-94 and especially north of a line from Holland to Lansing. Even some expressways are very icy. Temperatures will very slowly warm a touch above freezing during the midday and early PM, but then fall below freezing in all areas Sunday evening. Periods of wet snow may accumulate an inch on grassy areas early Monday, with occasional flurries into Monday evening. Cooler than average weather will continue through the middle of the week. While roads may turn from icy to just wet this Sunday as temperatures very slowly warm above freezing, roads will get icy again as temperatures fall below freezing Sunday evening/night and icy spots are likely for the Monday AM commute.
The Winter Storm Warning for Allegan, Barry, Eaton and Ingham Counties to the north continues thru Sunday AM. Allegan and Barry Counties have been added to the Winter Storm Warning. A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect thru Sunday AM for Van Buren, Kalamazoo, Calhoun, Jackson counties east to include Ann Arbor and Detroit. The Advisory is mainly for the chance of a period of freezing rain tonight into early tomorrow. The Warning is for a combination of freezing rain, sleet, snow and wind.
Peak wind gusts thru 3 pm: 52 mph South Haven Beach, 48 mph Saugatuck Beach and Bradley, 44 mph Grand Rapids, 43 mph Muskegon, Holland (airport), Fremont and Whitehall, 35 mph Lansing, 32 mph Battle Creek and 31 mph Kalamazoo. At 4 pm, the Consumers Energy Outage Map shows 16,122 customers without power, inc. 5.9% of Montcalm Co. and 5.1% of Mecosta County.
Precipitation through 3 pm: Lansing 1.35", Holland 0.92", Battle Creek 0.91", Grand Rapids 0.89", Kalamazoo 0.78", Big Rapids 0.77", Muskegon 0.75".
4 pm temperatures: 39 Benton Harbor, 38 Kalamazoo, 36 Battle Creek, 35 Marshall, 34 Holland, 32 Grand Rapids, Lansing, Fremont and Ionia, 31 Ludington, 30 Mt. Pleasant, 29 Big Rapids. The northeast wind will continue to feed in unseasonably cold air. At 4 pm it's only 23 at Alpena and 20 with moderate snow at Gaylord. Temperatures are likely to drop a few degrees this evening and overnight, causing icy conditions, then rise above freezing for a time during the day tomorrow, then back below freezing for Sunday night and early Monday. Keep an eye on your car thermometer and be very careful if that is below 32 degrees tonight into Monday AM, especially if you are getting significant snow, sleet or heavier rain.
I have an auction to do tonight for South Olive Christian School this evening. I'll try and add something to the blog or my twitter/facebook later tonight. Watch 24 Hour News 8 and visit www.woodtv.com for the latest. Here's current temperatures and radar.
A seiche occurred on Lake Michigan shortly after noon in Manistee and Mason Counties. The two pictures above (from Tom and Brad Reed Photography) were taken just nine minutes apart. At 12:18 pm, you can see the breakwater covered in water as a thunderstorm quickly turned the wind from the northeast to the west and back again.
This is a map of severe weather reports for Friday as of 8 pm. A thunderstorm formed near the Mississippi River and moved across Wisconsin. The line of green dots going across Wisconsin are the severe hail reports from this storm. There was hail from the storm in Michigan, but not large enough (1" in diameter) to rate as severe.
This is the radar image of the storm as it came into Ludington and Manistee. The red color is heavy rain (and hail). Often when a storm takes on a curved shape (like a comma) it is an indication of strong winds with the storm. At the Ludington shore, the wind at 12:12 pm was north at 5 mph. At 12:18 pm, it was west at 27 mph with a gust to 42 mph. At 12:24 pm it was back to the north-northeast at 12 mph and at 12:30 pm the wind was northeast at 5 mph.
This graphic is from the Geology Dept. at MSU. It demostrates the effect the wind has on water. The west wind pushed the water toward shore. Then as the wind turns back to the northeast, the water level drops. Rivers that connect to the lake might see water backing up (reverse flow) for a short time as the water level of Lake Michigan rises, then flow back at a faster rate as the level goes back down.
This is a trace of the water level at Ludington, showing the level rising as the west wind hits, then sloshing back and forth/up and down like the water in a bathtub might do. The level went up and down a little over 18". The later level of Lake Michigan is already 15" higher than average, so the additional 18" caused the breakwater to be totally submerged for a few minutes.
There have been deadly seiches on Lake Michigan. In 1929, a seiche flooded the Grand Haven pier sweeping people off resulting in 10 deaths. In 1938, a large seiche occurred in Holland, that swept people from the pier and away from the beach resulting in 5 deaths. On July 4, 2003, there were seven drownings within a three-hour period along a concentrated three mile section of beach near St. Joseph.
There have been deadly seiches on Lake Michigan.
In 1929, a seiche flooded the Grand Haven, Mich., pier sweeping people off while strong rip currents carried several more away from the beach resulting in 10 deaths. In 1938, a large seiche occurred in Holland, Mich., that swept people from the pier and away from the beach resulting in 5 deaths.
Strong rip currents are often associated with a seiche because of the very dangerous water fluctuations and movements of abnormal currents. Many of the seiches that have taken lives have occurred on Lake Michigan with a few somewhat large and destructive seiches taking place on lakes Superior, Huron and Erie. A series of seven drownings along the southeast shoreline of Lake Michigan on July 4, 2003, were associated with a moderate to strong seiche of the basin. During this single event, seven rip current-related drownings were reported within a three-hour period along a concentrated three mile section of beach. The drawing here shows a seiche in Chicago in 1954 that resulted in eight fatalities.
The National Weather Service has confirmed that a hailstone that fell March 19 near Cullman, Alabama is the largest ever in Alabama history.
The stone measured 5.25" in diameter and 13.75" in circumference (bigger than a large grapefruit). It weighed 8.9 ounces.
The hail occurred when a stand-alone supercell thunderstorm merged with a thunderstorm complex. The merger caused a strong updraft that held the hail aloft until it became huge.
As you can imagine, the storm did millions of dollars in damage with car windows smashed in hundreds if not thousands of vehicles.
Hail this large is usually held aloft by an updraft that is typically a little over 100 mph and hail this big can fall at 100 mph. Pea-size hail falls at roughly 20 mph, but can fall faster in a downdraft. This is a divot made by one of the hailstones in Cullman, Alabama. You can see how dangerous it would be if you were caught outside in a storm like that.
This is a picture (from the NWS) of the biggest hailstone ever - which fell at Vivian SD on 7/23/2010. This stone measured 8" in diameter, 18.62" in circumference and weighed 1.93 pounds!
This picture of hail is from Michelle Olin in Mapleton. Thunderstorms moved through parts of central and northern Lower Michigan early this afternoon. The storms produced strong winds and a seiche on Lake Michigan (I'll have a separate story on the seiche) and pea-to marble-sized hail.
Hail was reported at Shelby, Scottville, Gladwin, Reed City, Harbor Beach, Highland (Osceola Co.), Clare, Baldwin, Walhalla and Mecosta. Check out how the wind changed at the Ludington Beach weather station: 1212 pm - wind north at 5 mph, 12:18 pm - wind west at 27 mph, gust to 42 mph, 12:24 pm - wind north-northeast at 13 mph, 12:30 pm - northeast at 5 mph.
The National Weather Service has extended the Winter Storm Watch one set of counties to the south - it now includes Ottawa, Kent, Ionia and Clinton counties, and they may add another set of counties to the south. The potential for significant freezing rain Saturday into Sunday includes Holland, Grand Rapids and Ionia.
The Winter Storm Watch was posted earlier for Muskegon, Newaygo, Montcalm and Gratiot counties north to the Upper Peninsula. This is for late Friday night into Sunday as a cold, slow-moving storm system crosses the Great Lakes.
On Saturday, rain will fall across Southern Lower Michigan, with a chance of a thundershower. The rain could be heavy at times, especially in the AM. To the north of Grand Rapids, it may be cold enough for freezing rain and sleet, and northern Lower Michigan will see heavy, wet snow. Temperatures will be mainly in the 40s south of Kent County and 30s to the north on Saturday. Winds of up to 25 mph with gusts to 35 mph will make it feel colder than temperatures would suggest and the strong wind will cause additional stress on trees and power lines.
Roads could become icy as you go north on Saturday. Ice will have the potential to damage trees and bring down power lines. Driving conditions will be difficult at times.
On Sunday, more of the same, though the freezing rain could extend down into Allegan, Barry and Eaton counties. The precipitation change to all snow Sunday night and continue into Monday with about an inch accumulation. Roads could be quite slippery later Sunday night into Monday AM.
>>Inside woodtv.com: The latest on the storm
Skies will become partly sunny on Tuesday and with temps. back in the 40s, that should melt most all of the snow and ice. We may get a few rain showers next Wednesday, then dry for next Thursday and Friday. Temperatures on the whole should stay cooler than average into early May.
The top picture from the Chicago Water Intake was taken just before a "pneumonia (cold) front" passed through.
I grew up in Wilmette, Illnois and experienced how these fronts can quickly change the weather. They occur mostly in April and May, when a southwest wind brings warmer air (often in the 70s and 80s). A cold front quickly moves down Lake Michigan, changing the wind to the north-northeast where the air has been sitting over the very cold water of Lake Michigan.
This second picture occurred after the front went through and you can see...well...nothing but fog.
Now here's what happened in just one hour between 2 pm and 3 pm: The temperature fell from 70.9° to 45.7°...the wind shifted from west at 17 mph to northeast at 21 mph...and the relative humidity rose from 37.3% to 88.1%. That's quite a cold front — and it came through dry — no showers or storms.
Here's the Gaylord NWS graphic on the weekend storm.
Also: Blizzard Warning for the Plains. Seeing ocean currents from outer space. Rare heavy April snow in Spain. Temperatures as warm as 102 in Oklahoma Thurs. PM. The heat and dry conditions are contributing to wildfires in western OK. Pretty Florida sunset. Right-angle lightning on the south coast of France. Cold in Minnesota. That's a lot of snow! The NWS has announced that Harvey, Irma, Maria, and Nate have been retired from the hurricane name list. Harold, Idalia, Margot, and Nigel will replace these names starting in 2023. 30-foot snow drifts. Huge hail in India. "A tuba was observed in the land of Ploermel" Unusual late-season snow in SE France. Beautiful mammatus. South Bend now: the coldest start to spring since 1965 (avg. temp from Mar 20 to Apr 11 = 34.7). Also is 2nd coldest start in 100 years. Only 1965 was colder (33.8). FT Wayne now: the coldest start to spring since 1982 (avg. temp from Mar 20 to Apr 11 = 38.1). Also 3rd coldest start in 50 years.
For the period April 1-11, this was the 3rd coldest period ever in G.R. and the coldest in 36 years.
The warmer day today isn't factored in here, but neither is the unseasonably cold weather that is coming for the weekend and early next week.
Here's a map showing the temperature difference from average for the whole U.S. for April 1-11. Note the warm air in the desert Southwest and in Florida and the extremely cold air over much of the U.S. east of the Rockies. Much of the Dakotas and NE Montana saw temperatures 20° colder than average in the first 11 days of April. The contiguous U.S. as a whole was 5.45°F colder than average and that is a lot.
The cool pattern is likely to continue into early May (though not quite as far from average as these 11 days have been).
Today's high of 64 in Grand Rapids was the warmest day since last Oct. 22.
Highs ranged from 74° at Sturgis to 53 in Ludington, where the temperature peaked in the early afternoon, then fell to the mid-30s when a cold front passed through in the mid-afternoon (the 50° in Lansing is wrong - my observer just west of Lansing had a high of 70°. The high temperature at the beach in Muskegon was only 48.9°.
As quickly as the warm air moved in...it's going to move out. Temperatures will be back in the 30s this weekend with a stiff east-northeast wind.
Here's National High Temperatures. The warm air ruled from Arizona to Florida and north into Kansas and Missouri. You can see the cold air in Canada that will move down into Michigan as winds turn to the east-northeast and then north. In western Oklahoma, where it has hardly rained at all in the last 6 months, the dry ground heats up quickly. Gage OK reached 101° and Altus topped out at 100°.
The latest 8-14 day temperature outlook from the Climate Prediction Center continues the pattern of colder than average weather over the Great Lakes and much of the country for the period April 20-26.
The latest 8-14 day precipitation outlook calls for a good chance of above average rainfall across the Great Lakes and indeed much of the country.
Above is a look at some of the peak wind gusts today (Thurs.). Peak gusts were in the 35-45 mph range.
We're in for several windy days as a strong storm moves slowly thru the Great Lakes. The afternoon GFS model takes the sustained wind to 26 mph Saturday AM in Grand Rapids. Gusts would be around 35 mph. Sustained winds of 15-25 mph continue through the weekend into Monday.
The winds will compound the freezing rain problem and add to tree damage that is expected to occur in those areas that get significant freezing rain. The strong wind will also make it feel even colder than the actual temperatures would indicate.
The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Storm Watch for Oceana, Newaygo, Mecosta, Isabella, Mason, Lake, Osceola and Clare Counties from late Friday night through at least Sunday AM. They say: "Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow and sleet accumulations of up to one inch and ice accumulations of one quarter to three quarters of an inch are possible. Wind gusts over 30 mph from the northeast will increase the potential impacts. Expect power outages and tree damage due to the ice. Travel could be impossible. Significant reductions in visibility are possible."
In the meantime enjoy the dry and mild weather during the day, rain clears out from west to east around or shortly after daybreak.
A significant storm system will be moving across the Great Lakes from Friday through Monday. The storm will bring us showers on Friday into Saturday with the possibility of a thunderstorm (best chance south and southeast of Grand Rapids).
We'll be in the warm air today (Thurs.) and much of Friday...but after that the cold air pours in with temps. falling into the 30s for much of Saturday and Sunday with a stiff and cold northeast wind.
There is a chance that this storm will produce a band of significant freezing rain from Sat. night into Sun. somewhere north of G.R. and to the north of the freezing rain, significant amounts of heavy, wet snow.
Above is the projected weather map for Friday AM from the Weather Prediction Center. South of the warm front, temperatures will soar into the 70s, while to the north, high temperature in Canada will pump chilly northeast winds into the northern U.S.
Above is the Severe Weather Outlook from the Storm Prediction Center. There is a large "Enhanced Outlook" from Missouri to Texas. While a non-severe storm (gray color on the map) is possible in Lower Michigan, this cold air will keep the severe weather to our south.
So far this year, the U.S. has had 174 tornadoes. That compares to 502 last year to this point. Last year, we had 28 tornado fatalities up to April 11 and this year we've had only two.
Above is a list of the number of 60-degree days from March 1 - April 11 over the last few years. This year, we've had none - the warmest temp. during that time was 56° on March 18.
Last year, we had four days that reached 60° during that time. 2016 and 2015 each had 6 days that reached 60°. Down at the bottom I have 2012. That crazy-warm spring when temperatures soared into the mid-80s in March and the blossoms came out way too soon and then frosted out. That year, 22 of the 42 days from March 1 - April 11 were 60 degrees or warmer.
While Grand Rapids made 54° on Wednesday and Kalamazoo reached 59°, it was much cooler at Lake Michigan. The high temp. here at the Muskegon Channel was just 40.8°. The picture taken Wednesday shows there is still a little ice on the breakwater at Muskegon.
While the wind broke up some ice on Lake Superior, the lake still has a 39.1% ice cover. Lake Michigan is down to 4.1% and that is mainly in Green Bay.
Temperature extremes in the U.S. on Wednesday: 104° at Death Valley CA and 7° at Mt. Washington NH. Some heavy rainfall in FL: 2.98" Pompano Beach, 2.51" W. Palm Beach, 2.21" Fort Lauderdale, 1.73" Orlando, 1.67" Winter Haven 1.49" Tampa.
Here's more video of the tornado that went thru downtown Fort Lauderdale FL yesterday.
We had a high temperature of 54° in Grand Rapids on Wednesday. That's (by far) the warmest temperature we've had this month, but it was still a couple degrees cooler than average.
We've now had 13 days in a row cooler than average and 31 of the last 36 days have been colder than average. The period from April 1-11 has been 11.9° colder than average.
Thursday will likely the be the warmest day, with highs ranging from the low 70s at the Indiana border, to the low 60s in Grand Rapids to the 40s at Lake Michigan.
The cold air roars back for the weekend as a strong storm moves in to give Lower Michigan windy cold days with rain and (especially to the north of Grand Rapids) the possibility of significant freezing rain (central Lower MI) and snow (northern Lower MI).
Thursday is the opening of the Binder Park Zoo. It should be a good day, dry with afternoon temperatures up in the 60s.
It should also be a good day to take in a ballgame. The Whitecaps play at Noon and it should be partly sunny and about 60°. With a cold and wet pattern, Thursday will be one of the best this month at the ballpark.
Today is the 53rd anniversary of the famous Palm Sunday tornado outbreak of April 11, 1965. There were 271 killed and approx. 1,500 injured that day. The picture at the top is the Swan Inn at 6 Mile Road and Alpine Avenue in Comstock Park (by Walter Nelson). A long-track F4 tornado moved from Ottawa Co. into Kent Co. - hitting Comstock Park and Rockford, then moving northeast into Montcalm Co. before dissipating. Here's stories from survivors. Check out photos from the aftermath of the twister. Could it happen again? Major West Michigan tornadoes through the decades.
Photos here. More pictures. 1995 special from WSBT on the tornado outbreak. Here's old film from 1965 - Toledo. Here's more old film - look at what radar looked like in those days. A lot more people live in the path of these tornadoes 51 years later.
The high temperature of 45° in Grand Rapids was the warmest temperature we've had so far this month - and it was STILL 11° colder than average!
Last year on April 10, we had a high temp. of 78°. That followed a high temp. of 75° on April 9. The period from April 1-10 has been 13° colder than average - and 16.2° colder than April 1-10 last year The average temperature for April 1-10 has actually been below freezing (30.9°).
Above is a pic. from the S. Haven Lighthouse Tuesday afternoon. You can see a fishing boat on the far left of the picture. At 2 p.m., the temperature at the lighthouse was just 34.9°
Ice cover has been increasing on Lake Superior! It's back up to 53%. It was at 12% just 2 days ago! That's what calm, clear and very cold nights can do. This is mainly thin ice that should break up when the wind comes up. The average temperature at Marquette for April 1-10 has been 18.7° and the average low temp. has been 7.7°.
Finally, check out the small tornado that moved through downtown Fort Lauderdale FL late Tuesday. It kicked up a lot of sand and did some damage to a FedEx facility. Hail up to 3" in diameter fell at Bakersville FL with 63 mph winds at Dania Beach FL.
This map shows the global temperature anomaly (difference from average) for Jan. 1 to April 10. Note the blue (cooler than average) along the Equator west of S. America in the Pacific Ocean. That's the La Nina. The global temp. was 0.3 deg. warmer than average — and pretty much all of that difference was warmth in the Arctic.
Now, it's still cold in the Arctic. When the average temp. is 25 below zero and it turns out 15 below zero, the ice and snow still doesn't melt.
Over the past decade, winters have been generally warm in the Arctic with average temperatures during the summer, when ice would be melting. The graph from the Danish Meteorological Institute shows average temperature for 2017 north of 80° latitude.
The top map also shows the colder than average temperatures this year over much of Canada, extending down into the Midwest and Great Lakes. Temperatures have been warmer than average in Florida and the Southwest U.S.
Today is the one-year anniversary of the Tyler Creek Tornado.
Rotation was first seen SE Kent Co. at 8:29 p.m. Maximum rotation occurred at 8:39 p.m and the last rotation visible on radar was at 8:43 p.m.
The twister was rated at EF-1 with winds of 90 mph. It was up to 220 yards wide (or a little over twice the length of a football field).
The evening darkness and the fact that rain was falling around the tornado made it very difficult to spot.
The tornado crossed the Tyler Creek Golf Course, destroying a bridge that the storms for 62 years. Numerous trees were uprooted and broken off.
The tornado heavily damaged a barn and there was damage to a house. The storms knocked out power to nearly 6,000 customers in Kent and Ionia \counties.
Morning thunderstorms dropped hail up to golfball size in Oceana County. Lake Macatawa reported 1.73" of rain from the storms and Grand Rapids had nearly an inch. The high temperature that day in G.R. was 78 degrees and the day before we hit 75. Contrast that to this year, when we never got warmer than 45 during the first 10 days of the month.
Twenty-nine of the last 34 days have been cooler than average and Tuesday we'll make it 30 of 35.
The first nine days of April were 12.9° cooler than average. The rest of April would have to be 5.5° warmer than average to balance that out and that isn't going to happen. We've had at least a trace of snow on 9 of the last 11 days. This is the coolest start to April since 1982. Average high temperatures are in the mid-50s and we may get there by Wednesday. Thursday and Friday we should have a pretty significant temperature gradient across the area. Readings could be in the 70s in N. Indiana and 40s north of Big Rapids.
>>Inside woodtv.com: How rare is April snow
The warmer air won't stick around for long. The 6-10 day outlook for April 15-19 from the Climate Prediction Center has the cold air coming right back into the Great Lakes and much of the Eastern U.S. The 20-25 day (week 3) European model continues the cool pattern into the first week of May. By the way, there should be plenty of beautiful, blooming tulips for the Tulip Festival (May 5-13).
With the warmer air comes some rain. Above is the 7-day precipitation forecast from the Weather Prediction Center. Note there is more precipitation as you go north in Lower Michigan, with totals approaching 2-3" in parts of N. Lower Michigan over the next week and at least an inch in Southern Lower Michigan. A light shower is possible late Tues. night. Showers are possible Wednesday night and rain is likely Friday and Saturday. It stays dry from S. California to the Southern Plains, where they really need rain. Rain will be welcome in central Florida. Over 4" of rain fell in Gainesville FL on Monday.
Record high temperatures in Southern California. With dry ground from S. California to the Southern High Plains, that's where temperatures will be warmer than average into the summer.
Also: Snow on the field led to the Chicago Cubs postponing their home opener. Cool clouds. Beautiful Tennessee sunset. Beautiful cherry blossoms. A look back at the deadly tornadoes of 4/9/17. Flooding in Yosemite. Severe storm potential Fri. and Sat.
The photo above is a grab from the Barrow/Utqiaĝvik, Alaska webcam.
The town of Barrow recently changed its name back to the native "Utqiaĝvik." Barrow/Utqiaĝvik is the northernmost place in the United States and the 11th most northern settlement on Earth. It's well north of the Arctic Circle.
Here, they go through a period of 24-hour nighttime in the winter and 24-hour daylight in the summer. Right now, daylight in Utqiaĝvik is increasing at the rate of nearly 10 minutes each day. The sunrise today was at 6:43 am and the sunset at 10:17 pm. From May 11 through August 1, the sun will be above the horizon 24 hours a day.
Utqiaĝvic is a cold place. The average high temperature in July is just 47° and the warmest ever was 79° back in July 1993.
On Sunday, Utqiaĝvik had a high temp. of +9° and a low temp. of -12°. The last time they reached 40 was September 14 and the last time they reached 50 was August 10th.
The town has a population of about 4,335 - so it's about the same size as Coopersville MI.
The local high school actually has a football team. The Whalers play on a blue field and have to go by airplane to away games. They finished a respectable 7-2 last season.
The temperature at Stambaugh in the U.P. dropped to a bone-chilling 24 below zero this (Sun.) AM. If that hold up, it will be the coldest temperature EVER recorded in Michigan during the month of April. That reading broke the old Michigan April record by a whopping 7 degrees!
Above is a look at more low temperatures from Upper Michigan this AM. Many weather stations in the U.P. were below zero this AM. Here's the Sun. AM snow depth reports from the U.P. and N. Lower MI: 37" Painesdale, 34" Grand Marais, 33" Munising, 32" Hoist Basin, 30" Hancock, 26" Houghton, Calumet, Ishpeming, 20" Marquette, Greenland, 19" Newberry, 17" S. Ste. Marie and Jacobsville, 15" Sawyer AFB and Rapid River, 14" Michigamme and Cooks, 12" Champion, Arnold, Charlevoix and E. Jordan (most in Lower MI), 11" Garden Corners, 10" Gladstone, Fife Lake and Gaylord, 9" Manistique, Escanaba, Rogers City, 8" Ontonagon, Green Garden, Lewiston, 7" Alpena and Kingsley, 6" Big Rapids, 5" E. Tawas and Moran, 4" St. Ignace, Traverse City, Harbor Springs and Scottville, 3" Houghton Lake, Beulah, Detour Village, Glennie and West Branch, 2" Hart, 1" Gladwin, Fremont.
Record cold temperatures were also set in Lower Michigan where there was snow on the ground. Big Rapids dipped to +1, Cadillac bottomed out at -3 and Baldwin dropped all the way down to -7. Other morning low temps: Leota (Clare Co.) -4°, Houghton Lake and Manistee +3°, Mecosta +5°, Muskegon 14°, Battle Creek 15°, Grand Rapids 16°. The record low temp. for Sunday in G.R. was +7° in 1982. That followed a +3° the day before and those are the two coldest mornings ever in G.R. in April.
Above is the webcam from the Observatory in Fremont, looking south shortly before sunset. Despite full sun, we still couldn't melt the snow today as afternoon temperatures held in the 30s, nearly 20° colder than average.
First of all, Happy Sunday. We had a very cold Saturday. The high temp. in G.R. was only 30°. That was 25° colder than the average high of 55°. The high temp. at the beach in Muskegon was just 28°. It's been colder. The lowest high temperature ever on April 7 in G.R. was 24° in 1972. We only had one day that reached 40° in the first week of April and the first 7 days of April turned out 12.7° colder than average.
Twenty-seven of the last 32 days have been colder than average in G.R. The 8-14-Day Outlook continues the cool pattern for April 15-21. The GFS model still warms us up to the low 50s on Weds. and near 60° on Fri., but it gets cooler again after that. With the average temperatures going up at the rate of 1° about every 3 days...it won't stay this cool, but it's still a cool pattern. By 2 am early Sun. the temp. was already down to +8° at Big Rapids and +6° in Cadillac. It still looks like a little snow on Monday and rain for later in the week.
With colder than average air in the Northern U.S. and warm air in the Southern U.S., it implies a wet pattern for much of the country. Hopefully, the severe weather will continue to stay to our south. Of course a big advantage to the cool pattern is keeping the blossoms from coming out too soon. I also haven't seen a mosquito yet (a couple of stinkbugs and one very lethargic fly) and I haven't had to cut the grass yet. This has also been one of if not the best year ever for maple syrup. Look for some Michigan maple syrup, it's very good this year. Comparison 2012 vs. 2018.
This is a pic. from the Alpena GLERL cam. (from NOAA Coastwatch), showing the ship Cuyahoga unloading. By evening it had pulled out and was heading north toward MEB.
Check out this volcano with lightning! Tornado video from Rhodes. Orange snow! Interesting quote from Warren Buffet: "We get a tax credit if we build a lot of wind farms. That's the only reason to build them. They don't make sense without the tax credit". It was a little windy in the Pacific NW on Sat. Two Buoys near Astoria Canyon peaked at 29 feet at 4 PM. "48,000 Brits dead after worst winter in 42 years." (depends on what you count). Hail in Italy. It made 90° in Las Vegas NV for the first time this year on Sat. - last 90° was 10/23/17. Kansas City had the coldest first week of April since 1899. Five people were struck by lightning in White Springs, Florida on Sat. - one fatality. This winter, Calgary, Canada had a stretch of 99 days with 2 cm or more of snow on the ground (12/20 to 3/28) - longest stretch since 1977-78. 4.6 magnitude e-quake west of Perry OK Sat. AM. Rainbow. Hole in the sun's atmosphere. Pic. of Texas tornado. Huge hail in Texas Fri. PM. Volcanic eruption in Hawaii.
The overnight run of the GFXS model gives Grand Rapids a high temperature of 70 degrees on Friday, April 13. Now, before you get too excited, other models aren't nearly as warm. It will be warmer next week, that's for sure.
Both the 6-10 day and the 8-14 day precipitation outlooks forecast a good chance of above average rainfall for Michigan and the Great Lakes. The Storm Prediction Center says: "a corridor of substantive buoyancy is expected to organize across parts of the southern/central Plains towards the Mississippi Valley by the second half of the week". Storm Team 8 will be tracking the possibility of our first round of spring thunderstorms later next week.
Here's an early Friday morning webcam view of Boyne Mountain. Late morning temperature is 29 degrees with light snow falling. Boyne has a 45" base and fresh natural snow. Ski resorts are open across the U.P. (most resorts have bases of 4-5 feet) and there is plenty of snow for the snow machines in N. Michigan. The cold air should last into early next week.
Here's updated season snowfall (and difference from average-to-date): Muskegon 100.6" (+8.2"), Holland 82.1" (airport area), Kalamazoo 74.5", Grand Rapids 74.3" (+0.5"), Lansing 52.1" (+2.2"), South Bend IN 92.6" (+26.9").
Here's U.S. snow cover: 21.5% of the contiguous U.S. had snow on the ground this Fri. AM. Snow cover in MI: 38" Painesdale, 35" Grand Marais, 33" Munising, 32" Hancock and Kearsarge, 27" Calumet, 24" Herman, 22" Watersmeet, Paulding and Ishpeming, 20" Marquette (airport) and Ironwood, 19" Harvey and S. Ste. Marie, 18" Jacobsville, 16" Rapid River, 15" Cooks and Michigamme, 14" Vanderbilt and Iron Mt., 13" Garden Corners and Charlevoix, 12" Champion, Arnold, E. Jordan, Stambaugh, Gladstone and Stonington, 11" Mancelona, 10" Manistique, Fife Lake, Gaylord, Atlanta, Rogers City and Green Garden, 9" Escanaba, Grayling, Ontonagon, Norway, 8" Wetmore, 7" Cadillac, St. Ignace, Kingsley, 6" Traverse City, Mio, E. Tawas and Moran, 5" Beulah, Hale Loud Dam, Luzerne, 4" W. Branch, Scottville, Big Rapids and Harbor Springs, 3" Houghton Lake, Engadine and Glennie, 2" Gladwin, Hart, Alma, 1" Standish, Fremont, Ludington.
An overall drier than average pattern has brought Great Lakes water levels back down a touch closer to average levels.
Lake Superior is down 3" in the last month. The cold pattern has brought snow, not rain to the Lake Superior area. When that melts, the lake level will go up. Hopefully, that won't be accompanied by heavy rain, which would have the potential to produce significant flooding. Superior is 4" higher than one year ago and 9" higher than the average April level.
Lake Michigan/Huron is down 1" in the last month, up 6" year-to-year and is now 14" higher than the April average.
Lake Erie is up 2" in the last month — the only Great Lakes to see a rise over the past 30 days. Erie is 4" higher than one year ago and 19" above the April average.
Lake Ontario is down one inch in the last month and down 10" since April 2017 Ontario is only 2" above the April average.
All the Great Lakes connecting rivers have above average flow and that will continue to be the case into the summer.
Great Lakes ice extent is down to 12.6%, with much of the remaining ice in Lake Superior. Water temperatures of the Great Lakes range from the mid 30s to the low 40s. The water temperature of inland Reeds Lake in East Grand Rapids is 41°.
Great Lakes News: Lifting the boom! In a survey of 22 states, Wisconsin was the fourth-heaviest user of road salt, behind New York, Ohio and Indiana. Michigan was not in the top 4. Guarding the sturgeon. 37 Million dollars for planting trees. The Great Lakes are filling up with giant green blobs! Nature Preserve doubles in size. Island residents stranded by ice. PCBs decreasing in the Great Lakes.
A Winter Weather Advisory will be in effect from 10 p.m. this evening until 11 a.m. Friday morning. This is for a general 1-2" of snow and slippery road conditions. First, the snow will move in from SW to NE across the area overnight. Most of us will see dry conditions and dry roads this evening. As the band crosses the area, you'll see several hours of snow and roads will become slippery for the Friday morning commute. It will become quite windy tomorrow, with steady WNW winds of 20 mph and gusts to +30 mph. That may cause some blowing and drifting and there could be additional (mainly light) snow showers from Friday PM into Saturday. It stays unseasonably cold, with highs on Saturday only in the mid 30s.
It was very cold this morning across N. Michigan. Roscommon was the coldest spot in the contiguous U.S. with a low temp. of -10. Sigma dipped to -9 and Grayling got down to -8. Gaylord reached -7 and Pellston dropped to -6. Cadillac had a low temp. of +2 and Baldwin fell to zero.
With the snow Wednesday morning, Muskegon has now climbed up over 100" for the winter and Holland is now above 80". Grand Rapids and Kalamazoo are neck-and-neck, as they have been most of the winter. Hastings has had 67" of snow this winter. Other area season snowfall totals: Bloomingdale 104.3", Hart 100.4", Scottville 80.7", Augusta 80.1", Fremont 71.1", Charlotte 55.7", Eaton Rapids 53.3", Lansing 51.6" and Grand Ledge has had 50.6"
27% of the contiguous U.S. had a snow cover Weds. morning. Here's some snowfall totals from N. Lower MI: Maple City 145.2", E. Jordan 138.8", Gaylord 131.1", Kalkaska 120.4", Northport 86.9", Alpena 61.2", Houghton Lake 48.0". Finally some totals from the U.P.: Tamarack 285.2", Munising 187.0", Herman 168.4", Bergland Dam 156.0", Marquette 142.2", S. Ste. Marie 104.9".
There's more snow to come. Watch 24 Hour News 8 to find out how much snow we expect tonight.
The Whitecaps open the season at home Thursday at 6:35 p.m. I think they'll get the game in, though it'll be a chilly evening for baseball.
Temperatures may be in the upper 30s during the game with a west wind at around 10 mph. While the rest of us are looking at brown grass, the Whitecaps will do some magic and welcome you with a green field.
The weather is often more foul than fair in Michigan in early April. Above is a look at the weather for the last three Whitecaps' opening days. Last year on April 6, it was cold and wet. We had 0.86" of mostly rain, but that included 1/2" of snow. We also had temperatures in the evening in the upper 30s with winds of 15-25 mph. That game was postponed. We at least got the game in on opening day in 2016, though we did have 1/4" of snow and a high temperature of just 36° that day. In 2015, we had much warmer weather on Opening Day with a high of 66. However, we also had thunderstorms and over 2" of rain in Grand Rapids. Needless to say, that opener was postponed as well.
It's been a cold pattern. The Tigers have already had three games postponed, including Wednesday's match with the Royals. Good thing...hard to enjoy the game when your soda freezes solid. Given the forecast, it'll be hard to get the games in on Friday and Saturday (in South Bend).
Above is the Severe Weather Outlook Area for Tuesday night.
More severe thunderstorms are expected from Lake Erie to the Gulf of Mexico. We've already had 200 severe weather reports from northern Indiana to Louisiana and E. Texas. Eight tornadoes have been reported in Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, SE Missouri and Kentucky. Hail up to 3" in diameter pelted SE Missouri and wind gusts over 70 mph were reported in Illinois. I have not seen any reports of fatalities or serious injuries.
So far this year, we have had just 2 tornado fatalities. Last year to this point we had already had 25 fatalities. Through March 26th we've had 103 reported tornadoes in the U.S. That compares to 393 thru 3/31 last year and just 42 from 1/1 to 3/31 in 2015. That was a very cold winter and early spring...hence few tornadoes.
Today is the 62nd Anniversary of the Hudsonville-Standale tornado. It was 62 years ago today that West Michigan experienced the strongest tornado that has ever hit this area. The strongest wind anywhere on Earth in the year 1956 was that Tuesday afternoon in Hudsonville, Michigan - USA. The tornado was rated F5. The old Fujita scale had F5 winds at 261-318 mph. The new EF5 scale has peak winds at over 200 mph. Regardless, it was the only F5 tornado anywhere in the world in 1956. That March had been cold and snowy. People were waiting for spring.
The first tornado that hit Saugatuck, Gibson, Graafschap and Holland had dissipated. That tornado was a very strong F4 and destroyed the Saugatuck Lighthouse and the beach house at Oval Beach. It's very unusual to have a strong tornado come off a cold lake. That tornado injured 7 and destroyed four homes. This twister occurred around 5:30-6 pm and was on the ground for 9 miles.
The second tornado formed near Vriesland and very quickly intensified as it sped into Hudsonville. Thirteen of the 17 fatalities were in the Hudsonville Area, including two people who were in a car "that was lifted as high as the telephone poles". This tornado would remain on the ground through Georgetown Township, Standale, Walker, Comstock Park, Rockford and all the way to Trufant in Montcalm County. There were 4 fatalities in Kent County.
Here's a map of the two tornadoes I mentioned above and two more tornadoes that evening...and F4 that formed near Lake Michigan and traveled thru NW Manistee, Benzie and Grand Traverse Counties and an F3 twister that formed near Bangor and stayed on the ground until it reached Lowell. That tornado was on the ground continuously for 55 miles and resulted in 12 injuries.
The Winter Weather Advisory continues until 11 a.m. for Van Buren, Kalamazoo, Allegan, Barry, Ottawa, Kent, Muskegon, Oceana, Newaygo and Mecosta counties. This is for a combination of 1-2" of new snow (isolated 3" total toward Oceana Co.) and slippery spots on area roads.
A Winter Storm Warning is in effect for Northern Lower Michigan, where the storm may produce up to 6-12" of snow before it ends. Tuesday afternoon, thundersnow was reported at Hesperia and Cadillac with heavy snow in Traverse City.
Temperatures will dip to or a little below freezing in the early morning. That means that ice spots are possible. The snow showers will diminish through the mid-late morning and end in the afternoon. We may become partly sunny during the late afternoon with highs in the mid-30s. Road conditions should improve a bit for the afternoon.
A stiff northwest wind will blow at 15-20 mph during the day. A gust to 30 mph is possible. That will kick wind chills down to the single figures to mid-teens during the morning. So, you may want the winter coat and gloves.
Stay up with later forecasts and check with Daybreak in the morning on WOOD TV8 from 4:30 to 7 am for a fresh forecast and updated traffic information.
This is the Severe Weather Outlook from the Storm Prediction Center for Tuesday (mainly PM/evening). There is a Marginal Risk (dark green on the map) from South Haven to just south of Port Huron. There is a large Slight Risk Area from Fort Wayne, Indiana to the Gulf of Mexico (in yellow on the map) and an Enhanced Risk Area from N. Tennessee up into Indiana and SW Ohio. SPC says: "Thunderstorms associated with wind damage, large hail and a few tornadoes will be possible across parts of the Ohio Valley southwestward into the lower to mid Mississippi Valley and southern Plains. An enhanced threat for wind damage may occur across parts of the lower Ohio Valley. The severe threat should become marginal with northward extent into the southern Great Lakes where instability is forecast to remain weak."
Storm Team 8 will continue to track the possibility of storms in S. Michigan - but storm chasers Tuesday will be heading down toward the Ohio River.
A storm system (low pressure center) will cross Southern Lower Michigan on Tuesday. Above is the Futurecast for 6 am Tuesday. South of Kent County, you'll see showers with a chance of a thundershower (best chance at Indiana border). From Kent Co. to the north, there may be a period of light freezing rain or wet snow in the AM, with the precipitation changing to all rain as temperatures warm a little during the day.
North of a line from Oceana County to Oscoda, there may be some accumulating snow...light in Central Lower Michigan, but heavier in N. Lower Michigan, where at least several inches is quite likely. The snow will add to snow cover, which is substantial across the U.P.: 38" Grand Marais, 37" Painesdale, 34" Munising, 31" Hancock, 27" Ishpeming, 24" Marquette (airport), 21" Paulding, 20" Watersmeet, 18" S. Ste. Marie, Jacobsville, 17" Ironwood, 16" Michigamme and Iron Mt., 14" Gladstone, Garden Corners, 12" Champion, Green Garden, 11" Bark River, 10" Ontonagon, 9" Norway, 8" Arnold, Wetmore, Manistique, 7" East Jordan (most in Lower MI), 4" Moran, 2" Gaylord, Grayling, Harbor Springs, Detour Village, 1" Charlevoix, Lewiston, Traverse City and Luzerne.
Above is the G.R. National Weather Service graphic on the Tuesday storm.
Bottom line, the farther north you go on Tuesday, the better the chance of snow and slick roads.
Above are the forecast high temperatures for the next 5 days. Average high temperatures are in the low-mid-50s for the first week of April. We'll be below to much-below average this week and probably next week.
The high of 35° this Easter Sunday was 17° below average. Twenty-one of the last 26 days have been cooler than average.
It was even colder in the U.P., where the Easter Sunday low temperature was -6° at Garden Corners, -4° at Champion and +1 at Marquette/Sawyer.
Above is the 8-14 day temperature outlook from the Climate Prediction Center for April 11-15 and we're still "in the blue" - meaning a good chance of colder than average temperatures. Cool air dominates the Northern Plains, Great Lakes and Northeast. Now, the averages are going up.
The average high temperature today is 52°. By April 15, it's up to 58°. The cool air will slow the spring flowers and blossoms and should keep most or all of the severe thunderstorms south of the Great Lakes until at least the middle of the month.
The Tiangong-1 Chinese satellite broke up Sunday evening over the Southeast Pacific Ocean.
It's possible that a piece or two of space debris landed in southern South America, but much of what made it to the Earth's surface probably fell into the ocean. Most of the satellite burned up as it passed through the Earth's atmosphere.
We'll have a Wind Advisory today from 11 am to 7 pm for steady winds up to 25 mph (30 mph at Lake Michigan) and gusts to 40-50 mph. The wind will shifting from the south to the southwest then west-southwest. Temperatures will be in the 40s. Best to not stand under trees and to keep two hands on the steering wheel. Easter Sunday will looks cold with winds back to 10-15 mph and temperatures in the 30s. High temps. for the week on the GFS model starting with today (Sat.) are 49, 39, 50, 46, 38, 42, 45, 45....with another rain/snow system affecting us Tues. PM into Weds.
Winter Storm Warnings and Watches and Winter Weather Advisories will be in effect late tonight and tomorrow for the U.P. and parts of N. Wisconsin, where 5-9" of new snow is expected. Anyone traveling in that area will experience snow-covered and slippery roads. Lighter accumulations are expected across N. Lower Michigan. While the precipitation should be mostly rain in S. Lower Michigan, a period of wet snow at the beginning or end of the event is quite possible.
20.5% of the Lower 48 states still has a snow cover. While almost all the snow is gone from Lower Michigan, there is still plenty of snow in the U.P. Here's some Friday AM snow depths: 34" Painesdale, 31" Hancock and Grand Marais, 30" Atlantic Mine, 28" Copper Harbor, 25" Munising, 21" Herman, 18" Marquette (airport), 16" Paulding, Jacobsville, Harvey, 14" Watersmeet, 13" S. Ste. Marie and Ironwood, 12" Michigamme and Marquette (downtown), 10" Champion, 8" Ontonagon, Chatham and Rapid River, 7" Garden Corners, 6" Green Garden, 5" Gladstone, 4" Stambaugh, 3" Norway, 2" Manistique and 1" Moran. The snow tonight and tomorrow will add to that. Many ski areas across the U.P. and NW Lower Michigan are not only still open for Easter weekend, but have surprisingly good conditions for late March.
This winter we were in La Nina (colder than average surface water along the Equator west of South America in the Pacific Ocean)...and the winter was pretty close to the average weather we get during a La Nina. It was wet in the Pacific NW, dry from California east to Florida, warm in the Southeast, cold from Montana east to the Western Lakes and wet through the Ohio Valley and S. Great Lakes.
This is the Probability of La Nina, La Nada (neutral) and El Nino through early next winter. Our current La Nina fades to neutral and we may be heading to a weak El Nino for the bulk of next winter. A strong El Nino can bring a very mild winter to the Great Lakes (1982-83)...but...a weak El Nino can bring warm to occasionally very cold winters to the Great Lakes. I'll keep tracking this...when we get into mid-summer, we should have a better idea of where we're headed.