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Showers/Storm Today and Tomorrow

Posted:Wed, 28 Jun 2017 13:33:05 +0000

These are the Severe Weather Outlook maps for today (Thu), tomorrow (Fri.) and the next day (Sat). The Storm Prediction Center has areas south of a line from Muskegon to Port Huron in the Marginal Risk Area. For Friday, the Slight Risk Area is south of a line from Grand Haven to north of Port Huron with the Marginal Area south of a line from Ludington to Oscoda. We are just in the General T-Storm Outlook for Saturday.

Here’s storm reports from Weds….inc. 27 tornadoes (some of these may be duplicate reports of the same tornado. Fortunately, these tended to miss towns and cities. Wind damage reports (blue dots) came to Lake Michigan, but the storms weakened crossing the lake. Gusts to 80 mph were reported in Wisconsin with 5″ of rain near Rockford and Pecatonica, Illinois. Hail bigger than tennis balls pelted Iowa.

Here’s storm reports for Tues. Note the concentration of severe reports in the High Plains and from E. New York to the Boston Area. There were some very strong winds in the Plains. The peak recorded gust I was was 100 mph at Calloway NE. Calloway NE. recorded 92 mph. A 79 mph gust left most of Scottsbluff NE without power/ Gusts over 70 mph were also recorded at the airports at Rapid City SD and North Platte NE. Egg-sized hail pelted

You can follow severe weather in the U.S. with these links from SPC: Convective Outlooks, Current Severe Weather Watches, Current Meso-Discussions and today’s Storm Reports. Here’s storm reports in Michigan so far this year and storm reports in Michigan for 2016, 2015, and 2014.

We continue the Beach Hazards Statement and Small Craft Advisories until 2 pm today. Don’t swim near or jump off the south side of piers and breakwaters. Water temp. this AM: 71 Reeds Lake, 61 Muskegon, 65 Grand Haven and Holland.

Also: Solar explosion. Cool lightning in S. France. JAMSEC model suggesting next winter won’t be a warm one in the Great Lakes. The temperature in Lincoln, NE dropped 9 degrees from 75 F to 66 F in 7 min as storms swept through the area. Hail in Worcester MA. Yippee! Serbian red sprites. Sheep in the shadow. Idaho dust devil. Storm. “Tuba“. Lotsa rain in AL from Cindy. KaBOOM! I spent 5 years here. Look at the hail. Large hail in Italy. 2005: US biggest refined product importer 2016: US biggest refined product exporter! The rain (and hail) in Spain. Climate related deaths much higher in the 1920s and 1930s.
Dry and Pleasant Tonight

Posted:Tue, 27 Jun 2017 15:55:02 +0000

Here’s the Lake Express Ferry coming into the Muskegon Channel shortly after 9 am this morning. Skies are clear this evening. We’ll have a fresh west wind, but it’s not as windy as yesterday. Morning water temps: 62 Manistee, 64 Ludington, Mears is missing – their thermometer broke – 65 Duck Lake, 60 Muskegon, 64 Hoffmaster S.P. 62 Grand Haven, 67 Holland and 68 S. Haven. Muskegon, Hoffmaster S.P. and Duck Lake had red flags this AM for no swimming. The other beaches had yellow flags. Waves varied from 1-4 feet…wave heights should diminish just a bit during the late afternoon and evening. The water temp. at Reeds Lake has come up from 71 early this AM to 72 at noon.

Here’s the Severe Weather Outlook Maps from the Storm Prediction Center for tomorrow (Wed.) and the next day (Thu.). We are in the General Outlook for tomorrow (generally after 6 pm) and on Thursday, the Slight Risk (yellow) is across N. Illinois, N. Indiana and N. Ohio. The Marginal Outlook (dark green) is generally south of I-96.

It was cool this AM – low temps. were mostly in the mid-upper 40s…49 in G.R., 48 Kalamazoo, 46 at Muskegon and Battle Creek. Leota in Clare Co. dipped to 39. The record low for G.R. for today is 45 in 1902 and 1905. Muskegon’s record low for the date is 44 (1981 and 1992), so they came within two deg. of that.

This is the windiest June since 2000 and the 4th windiest June in 33 years of records. We’ve had 14 days since 6/4 when we’ve had gusts of at least 30 mph. We’ve only had one day this month (midnight-to-midnight) when the average wind has been less than 5mph. The month is averaging 1.56 deg. warmer than average.

Also: Good news from our GasBuddy, Patrick DeHaan…distant lightning…look at this solar eruption.
Rain Weds. Night Thru Friday

Posted:Tue, 27 Jun 2017 01:06:02 +0000

This is a map showing expected rainfall from today thru Friday from the Storm Prediction Center. They have much of Michigan getting 1.5-2″ of rain. That may be a little much, but certainly a wetter pattern starts Weds. evening. Today will be dry over most all of West Michigan and many of us will be dry thru about 7 pm on Weds. Scattered showers and t-storms will roll thru Weds. night ahead of a weak front. That front is likely to stall out close enough to continue to chance of scattered showers and storms into Thursday and Friday. A moist airmass will guarantee some areas of heavy rain and possibility a random strong to severe storm. Hopefully most of this clears out in time to give us a mostly dry weekend.

Yesterday (Mon. June 26) was the latest sunset of the year – at 9:26 in G.R. Astronomical twilight yesterday lasted until 11:47 pm and started this AM at 3:49 am. So, the total time when there was not a smidgen of twilight – total, complete darkness – was only 4 hours and 2 minutes in G.R.

A few people have told me that it’s been windy this month. We’ve now had an average daily (midnight-to-midnight) wind speed over 10 mph on 9 of the last 10 days. We’ve had wind gusts of 30 mph or more on 8 of the last 10 days in G.R. The average wind speed for the month is 9.9 mph. The average June wind speed for the past five Junes were: 8.3 mph, 8.3 mph, 8.0 mph, 7.4 mph, 8.6 mph. It’s been windy during the days lately, but the wind has died down at night.

There has been a significant power outage overnight, mainly in Barry County – affecting over 6,400 customers.

A small t-shower brought a little small pea-sized hail from Grand Haven to Coopersville to Sparta late this PM. The water temp. of Reeds Lake has dropped a few degrees to 70. Water temps. of Lake Michigan range from 61 at Muskegon to 67 at S. Haven. Waves today 2-3 feet in the AM and 1-2 feet in the PM. A sunset plus cows – in the Netherlands. Satellite loop of Hurricane Dora. Look at the zoomed-in satellite loop of a severe storm in eastern CO. The West Fork Complex fire in Colorado has reached 109,049 acres burned. Chilly Mon. AM in MN – with lows of 34 at Crane Lake and 35 at Hibbing. Circumhorizontal arc. Look at this beautiful cumulonimbus cloud at sunset. See smoke from Utah fire from space. Waterspouts on Lake Erie Monday. Large hail in Italy. Low ACE Index shows it’s a slow year for tropical storms. The Whitecaps have won 9 in a row!!

Pic. from Steve Redman and Mt. Rainier N.P. ” Last winter’s snowfall was heavier than usual, followed by a cool, wet spring season. Therefore, the deep mantle of snow covering the slopes of Mount Rainier will take longer than usual to melt this year. Some hiking trails will remain snow-covered well into the summer. Trails that would otherwise be considered easy may be too difficult or unsafe to navigate.”
Chance of a Shower This Monday

Posted:Mon, 26 Jun 2017 06:39:37 +0000

Here’s local and regional radar – these will update automatically. We have a chance of a shower, slight chance of a t-shower this aftn. It’ll be a cool day for late June, with most afternoon temperatures in the mid 60s to low 70s. We continue the Beach Hazards Statement for the lakeshore and the Small Craft Advisories. Waves should be 3-6 feet. With the water level of Great Lakes being well above the average level, probably best to stay off the piers and breakwaters – as you can see in the picture the waves are coming over the north pier at S. Haven. Most beaches will have red flags for no swimming. Cool air covers much of the Midwest and Great Lakes. The high temp. on the beach at Grand Marais in the U.P. was just 52 on Sunday.

1:30 pm update: Waves are 4-5 feet at all Lake Michigan beaches. Red flags are out for no swimming. As I type this, it’s partly sunny, breezy and dry. At this time, the temperature is 67 in G.R., 66 in Kalamazoo, 62 in Big Rapids, 58 in Ludington and 50 at Munising and Sawyer in the U.P. The S. Haven Beach reports 61.9 deg. and the Muskegon Beach is 60.4 deg. We’ve been in a dry slot. However, look at the satellite loop and you’ll see clouds and a few showers rotating down from the northwest, so many areas will be a little cloudier for the late afternoon.

Nice pic. here from the Gaylord NWS with crisp blue sky and cumulus turrets in the distance. June Rainfall: Over 11″ in Mt. Pleasant – 9.47″ in Midland, 7.10″ in Shepherd, 6.48″ at Alma, 4.05″ Grand Rapids, 2.19″ Holland, 1.99″ Muskegon, 0.92″ Jackson, 0.95″ Battle Creek, 0.75″ Kalamazoo (airport). As is often the case, convective summer rainfall can be quite variable.

This is the Grand Hotel on Mackinac Island. (Courtesy Thurston De Vos, file). High temperatures have been only in the 60s each of the last 8 days and they won’t make 70 today (and probably tomorrow). The weather station on Mackinac Island didn’t reach 70 this year until June 6th. So far this month, they have had 8 days that have reached 70 – 14 days with highs in the 60s and 3 days when temperatures stayed in the 50s. It is often warmer in early September on the Island (with warmer water) then in early June.

Also: Peach-sized hail in Italy. Much of the country on the cool side. Hot temps. Sunday in the West: Seattle 96, Portland 101, Reno 100, Las Vegas 113, Phoenix 116. San Francisco by the cool ocean had a high of 68. The highest in the U.S. Sunday was 125 at Death Valley CA and the lowest was 28 at W. Yellowstone and Gateway MT. 1.55″ of rain fell at Brownsville TX and 1.29″ at Houston. Only 47 severe weather reports in the U.S. on Sunday – including two small, brief tornadoes (one in SE CO and the other in the OK Panhandle. Three places in the Texas Panhandle reports winds of 81-82 mph and hail 4.25″ in diameter attacked Walsh CO. Ka-BOOM! Double rainbow in Milwaukee. The beautiful Washington Cascades. Cool lightning pic. from AZ. If you don’t like Severe Thunderstorm Warnings – go to Puerto Rico.

Uinks: Here’s Grand Rapids radar and Northern Michigan radar, Milwaukee radar, Northern I ndiana radar , Chicago radar , Detroit radar, Regional radar, the Updated GRR NWS Short Term Discussion. Here’s College of DuPage Radar Map (pick any radar in the U.S.), College of DuPage Grand Rapids radar, the West Michigan Lightning Tracker, National Lightning Tracker, the local warning/advisory map, the National warning/watch/advisory map, and a surface weather map. You can checkout the latest Grand Rapids NWS discussion, the Northern Indiana NWS discussion (includes the Michigan Counties that border Indiana), the discussion for Northern Lower Michigan, and Eastern Lower Michigan. Here’s the Spyglass Condos Weather Station, the S. Haven GLERL station, the Muskegon GLERL station, the Grand Haven Steelheaders webcam and weather station, and the weather station at Holland State Park. Check out the links to webcams. Here’s the infrared satellite loop (night) and the visible satellite loop (daytime), Lake Michigan water temperatures (summer). Here’s recent storm reports from SW Michigan, Northern Michigan, NE Illinois, SE. Wisconsin, Upper Michigan and E. Michigan. Check out the wind and wave height at the South Mid-Lake Michigan Buoy (Apr. to Nov. only), the North Mid-Lake Michigan Buoy (Apr. to Nov. only), the buoy at Big Sable Point near Ludington and the weather station on the beach at St. Joseph, the Port Sheldon buoy, the S. Haven buoy, the Muskegon buoy and the Ludington buoy. Cool U.S. satellite loop.
Hurricane Dora

Posted:Mon, 26 Jun 2017 05:35:09 +0000

Tropical Storm Dora has formed off the West Coast of Mexico. It will quickly ramp up to hurricane strength and probably reach about Category 2 before weakening back to a Tropical Storm and then just a weakening depression. As with many (most) storms that form off the West Coast of Mexico, the storm will move west-northwest and then west away from land. There’s only a small chance of a tropical storm level wind on the west coast of Mexico or at the southern tip of the Baja Peninsula. The storm may produce significant rain along the Mexico Coast, but the heaviest storm will likely remain offshore. Check out the latest NWS discussion on the storm, the Public Advisory, the Funktop Satellite Loop, the Visible Satellite Loop and a few weather observations from Mexico. Here’s a list of hurricane names for 2017.
Sunday Update

Posted:Sun, 25 Jun 2017 06:14:35 +0000

Here’s local and regional radar – these will update automatically. We do have a chance of a shower – slight chance of a thundershower today. The chance of any one spot seeing rain is about 30%. Best chance north and northeast of G.R. The map up top shows a Beach Hazards Statement for today for Mason Co. to the south to La Porte Co. Indiana for waves 3-5 feet and the risk of rip currents and structural currents. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect until 8 pm this evening.

2 pm temps: 71 Kalamazoo, 67 G.R., 59 and drizzle at Mt. Pleasant, 56 in Cadillac, 48 at Copper Harbor and at Cook and Crane Lake, Minnesota – lots of cool air rotating down from MN across WI into Michigan. Waves are 4-5 feet and red flags are out at all the Lake Michigan beaches. Water temp. this AM was a cool 62 at Muskegon and 66 at Holland.

This is Storm Total Rainfall from Saturday. I had out a 20% chance of rain in my 14-county viewing area with the best chance of rain north and northeast of G.R. Look at Mt. Pleasant. They had ANOTHER 1.32″ of rain, while most areas saw trace amounts or nothing at all.

The Chippewa River at Mt. Pleasant crested at 14.77 feet – about 10″ below the record level of 15.6 feet during the flood of Sept. 1986. The peak flow reached 6,000 cfs, compared to an average flow of about 215 cfs. That’s roughly 28 times the usual amount of water coming down the river. It was also 4 times more water than had ever come down the river on any June 24. The river may not fall below flood stage until early Friday. Keep in mind that when a river floods, the water “speeds up”. To get the same volume of water through a given point, the river has to get wider and/or go faster. It usually does both – so rivers become more dangerous when they are flooding. That’s why boaters, kayakers and tubers are more apt to get in trouble during a flood (4 rescued on the Muskegon River yesterday). It’s best to avoid rivers for the day or few days that they are in a significant flood situation.

Rainfall last two weeks – over 11″ at Mt. Pleasant…under an inch in Jackson.

This is a pic. from the S. Haven Lighthouse Camera (from NOAA Coastwatch). The high temperature at the S. Haven Lighthouse and at the Muskegon Beach was just 67 on Saturday and it probably won’t be any warmer today or tomorrow. Inland, G.R. had a high of 71. June is still 3.0 deg. warmer than average, but we’ll knock that down a bit with the cooler air the next several days. The water temp. of Reeds Lake dropped several degrees to 72 by early Sunday. It was cooler up north, where the high temp. Saturday was only 52 on the beach at Grand Marais in the U.P. Ironwood had a high of 57, Houghton and Copper Harbor stopped at 58. The cool trough Monday is centered right over Lower Michigan.

Also: Pic. here is a rainbow at Gaylord (from NWS) Saturday. Video of tornado moving thru a Home Depot Parking lot at 7:30 am in Howell NJ. Note the wind shift in the video and the fact that the tornado is “rain-wrapped” and difficult to see. There is a flash where the tornado his power lines. Tropical Storm Cindy has cooled the waters of the Gulf of Mexico (it does that mostly by stirring up and mixing in cooler water from below. Ship loaded up and leaving Thunder Bay. “Models are not consistent with observations“. Whitecaps won 16-1. Research highlight: Cat 5 hurricanes will reduce offshore wind turbines to rubbish. Tigers have lost 8 in a row. Fast-motion lightning. Warmest low temp. ever at Red Bluff CA at 87 deg. Look at the heavy rain from Cindy! Pretty picture. Nice cloud streets.

Links: Here’s Grand Rapids radar and Northern Michigan radar, Milwaukee radar, Northern I ndiana radar , Chicago radar , Detroit radar,Regional radar, the Updated GRR NWS Short Term Discussion. Here’s College of DuPage Radar Map (pick any radar in the U.S.), College of DuPage Grand Rapids radar, the West Michigan Lightning Tracker, National Lightning Tracker, the local warning/advisory map, the National warning/watch/advisory map, and a surface weather map. You can checkout the latest Grand Rapids NWS discussion, the Northern Indiana NWS discussion (includes the Michigan Counties that border Indiana), the discussion for Northern Lower Michigan, and Eastern Lower Michigan. Here’s the Spyglass Condos Weather Station, the S. Haven GLERL station, the Muskegon GLERL station, the Grand Haven Steelheaders webcam and weather station, and the weather station at Holland State Park. Check out the links to webcams. Here’s the infrared satellite loop (night) and the visible satellite loop (daytime), Lake Michigan water temperatures (summer). Here’s recent storm reports from SW Michigan, Northern Michigan, NE Illinois, SE. Wisconsin, Upper Michigan and E. Michigan. Check out the wind and wave height at the South Mid-Lake Michigan Buoy (Apr. to Nov. only), the North Mid-Lake Michigan Buoy (Apr. to Nov. only), the buoy at Big Sable Point near Ludington and the weather station on the beach at St. Joseph, the Port Sheldon buoy, the S. Haven buoy, the Muskegon buoy and the Ludington buoy. Cool U.S. satellite loop.
Chance of a Shower

Posted:Sat, 24 Jun 2017 16:47:55 +0000

Here’s local and regional radar – these will update automatically. The top pic. is the South Haven Channel shortly afternoon. The waves are almost coming over the pier/breakwater. Waves are 3 to 4 feet at all the beaches. The red flag is out for no swimming at Holland S. P. Ludington has a yellow flag, where the beach is a bit protected by the breakwater. Water temps. this AM: 69 Ludington (warmer behind the breakwater), 67 Holland, 66 Saugatuck, 65 S. Haven. Reeds Lake in East G.R. is 75.

Here’s a satellite picture. Cumulus clouds have formed, mainly over the land areas and these will develop into a few scattered showers and maybe an isolated t-shower. There’s a little better chance of a shower north than south and a better chance east away from the lake, where it’s a few degrees warmer. At noon it was 72 in Kalamazoo, 71 in G.R. and 70 at Big Rapids. The beach air temps. at both Muskegon and S. Haven were 63. There’s a Beach Hazards Statement out through Sunday evening.

The morning run of the GFS model gives G.R. a high of 70 tomorrow and just 65 on Monday with a 35% chc. of measurable rain tomorrow and a 62% chance of measurable rain on Monday.

Saturday: River levels receding at Croton, Morley, Mt Pleasant. Chippewa River in Mt Pleasant was 10 inches below 1986 flood.

Uinks: Here’s Grand Rapids radar and Northern Michigan radar, Milwaukee radar, Northern I ndiana radar , Chicago radar , Detroit radar, Regional radar, the Updated GRR NWS Short Term Discussion. Here’s College of DuPage Radar Map (pick any radar in the U.S.), College of DuPage Grand Rapids radar, the West Michigan Lightning Tracker, National Lightning Tracker, the local warning/advisory map, the National warning/watch/advisory map, and a surface weather map. You can checkout the latest Grand Rapids NWS discussion, the Northern Indiana NWS discussion (includes the Michigan Counties that border Indiana), the discussion for Northern Lower Michigan, and Eastern Lower Michigan. Here’s the Spyglass Condos Weather Station, the S. Haven GLERL station, the Muskegon GLERL station, the Grand Haven Steelheaders webcam and weather station, and the weather station at Holland State Park. Check out the links to webcams. Here’s the infrared satellite loop (night) and the visible satellite loop (daytime), Lake Michigan water temperatures (summer). Here’s recent storm reports from SW Michigan, Northern Michigan, NE Illinois, SE. Wisconsin, Upper Michigan and E. Michigan. Check out the wind and wave height at the South Mid-Lake Michigan Buoy (Apr. to Nov. only), the North Mid-Lake Michigan Buoy (Apr. to Nov. only), the buoy at Big Sable Point near Ludington and the weather station on the beach at St. Joseph, the Port Sheldon buoy, the S. Haven buoy, the Muskegon buoy and the Ludington buoy. Cool U.S. satellite loop.
Severe Weather Discussion for next 3 days

Posted:Sat, 24 Jun 2017 07:38:47 +0000

These are the Severe Weather Outlooks for the U.S. for the next 3 days. All 3 days, Lower Michigan is in the General T-Storm Outlook for very widely scattered non-severe t-storms. If a shower can punch out a little lightning, the storm could produce some small hail (colder aloft). Only General T-Storm (light green) and Marginal (dark green) outlooks for the next 3 days. They could use the rain in N. Mexico. Monday the only Marginal area is mainly in Oregon, which you don’t see everyday.

Here’s storm reports from Friday. Nearly 300 wind damage reports from Texas to the New Hampshire coast (a lot of those connected to the remains of Tropical Storm Cindy). There were a couple of small tornadoes in SW Pennesylvania and a handful of hail reports, but mostly trees and wires down due to t-storm winds.

Here’s high temps. from Friday. The heat continues from Texas to California…111 in El Paso…cooled a few degrees in Phoenix at 112. Las Vegas NV tied a daily record at 113. The hot spot was Death Valley CA again at 126. that was a daily record In CA it’s much cooler at the coast, where Los Angeles (arpt.) had a high temp. of 70. The coolest in the U.S. was 22 at a place called Chilly Barton Flat ID. The daytime high of 61 in Denver was a chilly day for them. Our winds are going to be west or slightly north of due west so some pleasant temperatures on the way for the next couple days. Lots of places from the Gulf of Mexico to Michigan and Ohio got significant rain. No one could beat Midland or Isabella Counties in Michigan, but Lexington KY had 3.15″ of rain, Dayton OH 2.86″ and Indianapolis at 2.14″. Lots of 1-2″ totals.

You can follow severe weather in the U.S. with these links from SPC: Convective Outlooks, Current Severe Weather Watches, Current Meso-Discussions and today’s Storm Reports. Here’s storm reports in Michigan so far this year and storm reports in Michigan for 2016, 2015, and 2014.

This is a pic. of the sunset at S. Haven Fri. evening. You can see a small shower in the distance. Also: Another pic of the S. Haven sunset. Cool fast-motion lightning in CO. Heavy rain in Mexico – floodwaters pushing cars! Cool Cuban clouds. What the whole world looked like Friday PM from space. Wildfires in AZ. Flood pics. from Midland. Nice shelf cloud in Germany. Good news. Missouri lightning. Storm damage in AL. Plastic embedded in wall from EF1 tornado. And that’s as far as you go! Pretty sunset. Gust to 91 mph – mountains of Scotland. Tiny twister passes right overhead! Tornado damage in AL.

Several new threads (stories) below this one…so read on if you have time…
Beach Hazards Statement

Posted:Sat, 24 Jun 2017 04:18:11 +0000

A Beach Hazards Statement has been issued for today (Sat.) through tomorrow (Sun) evening for Ottawa, Allegan, Van Buren, Berrien and La Porte (IN) Counties. Waves will be up to 2-5 feet and there could be dangerous rip currents and structural currents. On days like this, don’t swim near or jump off the piers and breakwaters. We also have a Small Craft Advisory for today and Sunday from Pentwater to Michigan City IN for waves of up to 3-5 feet and winds that could reach 15-25 knots.

Here’s our Lake Michigan forecast and Friday’s water temps.

Also: Check out the “Sweetharts” celebrating 80 years of marriage!

Several new threads (stories) below this one…so if you have a few more minutes, read on. Have an awesome weekend.
Fourth of July Weather

Posted:Sat, 24 Jun 2017 01:21:55 +0000

Many of us are looking forward the the Fourth of July Holiday. This is the 8-14 Day Temperature Outlook from the Climate Prediction Center for July 1 – 7. It shows a higher than average probability of cooler than average temperatures for most of Michigan. Keep in mind that the average high temperature for July 4 is 83 degrees. So, if we’re 2 degrees cooler than average – that’s still 81. So if you like it hot, don’t let this bother you. Most of the time the weather in the first week of July should be OK.

The hottest Fourth of July in G.R. was 100 in 1911 (2nd place was 99 in 2012), the coolest was 45 in 1972. The most rain fell on 7/4/1903 with 1.74″. The lowest high temperature was 64 in 1970 and the warmest low temp. ever was 78 in 2012 (pic. by Paul Jendrasiak).
Great Lakes Water Levels

Posted:Fri, 23 Jun 2017 19:24:09 +0000

All of the Great Lakes water levels remain well above average. The level of Lake Michigan/Huron is up 4″ in the last month, up 3 inches year-to-year and is now 15″ above the June average level. Lake Superior is also up 4″ in the last month and up 3″ year-to-year. Superior is now 11″ above the June average level and only 2″ below the all-time highest June level set in 1986. Lake Erie is unchanged in the last month and is up 9″ in the last year. Erie is 19″ above the June long-term average. Lake Ontario is down 4″ in the last month, but it’s still 30″ higher than one year ago! Ontario is still at the highest June level ever. It’s 62″ higher than the lowest all-time June level set in 1935. Pic. above is from the S. Haven Lighthouse looking out at a light shower over the lake at sunset on Fri. 6/23.

This is sunset at the Muskegon Channel Friday (from NOAA Coastwatch). All the rivers that connect the Great Lakes, as you might expect, have above average flow. Most rivers in the Western Great Lakes also have above average flow.

Great Lakes news: Tonight is the anniversary of the crash of Northwest flight 2501 in Lake Michigan southwest of S. Haven. All 58 aboard were lost. The main wreckage of the plane has never been found. Here’s the latest from Boatnerd. Asian carp gets past the electric barrier. Less beach on the Great Lakes. “Tsunami” warnings for the Great Lakes. Explorers search for prehistoric life under the Great Lakes. How the Great Lakes protect Michigan from some severe weather. Major flooding in Central Michigan. Paddleboarders make it across Lake Huron. An underwater classroom of mystery. Boaters, anglers celebrate. Cheboygan’s historic lights. Daughter #3 is interviewed regarding the Charlevoix Marathon. Boaters beware. Historic icebreaker. Great places in the Great Lakes. Free boat washes this Sunday. Pipeline under Straits of Mackinac passes pressure test. Lighthouse goes back to 1874. Resurgence in sturgeon population. Great places in the Great Lakes – Michigan. Monroe Co. deputies rescue woman entangled in phragmites. What killed hundreds of seagulls. Kayaking Sleeping Bear Dunes. Lake Michigan to get its first maritime highway. Great places in the Great Lakes – Wisconsin. Great places in the Great Lakes – Minnesota. There’s really a yellow submarine. Sand angel world record.
Major Flooding in Isabella, Midland and Gladwin Counties

Posted:Fri, 23 Jun 2017 17:14:04 +0000

Extremely heavy rainfall, especially in Isabella and Gladwin Counties has caused significant flooding. The picture above is a total road washout on Blanchard Road between Lincoln and Crawford Roads.

This is Loomis Road north of Rosebush Road. This is obviously going to take some time to repair (pics. from Isabella County Road Commission). Travel is more dangerous because of road washouts in a situation like this, especially at night. Central Michigan University was closed on Friday. There was also some minor wind damage from the storms in Isabella Co. A State of Emergency was declared in Isabella County, where there were 87 road closures and in Midland Co…and Gov. Snyder has declared a State of Disaster in Midland and Isabella Counties. State police helicopters and drones were surveying flooded areas and checking area roads for washouts. Untreated sewage was released into the Chippewa River. More flood pics. Vehicles stranded in floodwaters. Residents kayaked down the street. Homes flooded. Reporter Barton Dieters found fish swimming on the road. A Red Cross Shelter was opened up in Midland Co.

Flood Warnings were in effect for the Chippewa River in Isabella Co., the Muskegon River in Newaygo Co., the Little Muskegon River in Mecosta Co., the Pine River in Gratiot Co., the Tittabwassee River, the Saginaw River and the Rifle River near Sterling.

This is the river gauge on the Chippewa River near Mt. Pleasant. You can see the rapid rise last night and today. The river should crest here tonight at roughly 4 feet above flood stage. When I checked late afternoon, the flow on the Chippewa River at Mt. Pleasant was 5,940 cfs. That was 27 times the average flow and more than the flow of the Grand River in Grand Rapids (4,980 cfs). BTW, the flow on the Grand River at Grand Rapids was 194% of average flow for June 24. The flow on the Muskegon River at Croton was at 6,870 cfs compared to an average flow of 1.840 cfs. Click here to see Michigan river levels.

Here’s some rainfall totals: 7.31″ Oil City (Midland Co.), 6.88″ Mt. Pleasant, 6.28″ Pinconning, 5.73″ Lakeview (Montcalm Co.), 5.58″ Midland, 5.2″ Bay City, 4.85″ Auburn (Bay Co.), 4.45″, Stanwood 4.11″, Big Rapids 3.98″, Mecosta, 3.56″ Sylvester, 3.5″ Morley, 3.22″ White Cloud, 3.22″ Woodville (Newaygo Co.), 3.11″ Shepherd, 3.03″ Harrison (Clare Co.), 2.98″, Breckenridge, 1.90″ Alma, 1.82″ Fremont, 1.73″ Croton, 1.72″ Clarksville, 1.62″ Grand Junction, 1.44″ Scottville, 1.41″ Lowell, 1.32″ Alto, 1.29″ Stanton, 1.27″ Grant, 1.24″ Ionia, 1.23″ Baldwin, 1.01″ Hastings, 1.01″ Rockford, 0.96″ Grand Rapids, 0.43″ Muskegon, 0.12″ Kalamazoo, 0.09″ Holland, 0.06″ Battle Creek. Here’s video of the flooding. More rainfall totals here.

Here’s storm total rainfall off the Nexrad radar. The heavier rain fell generally north of a line from Muskegon to Flint. Rainfall amounts are expected to generally be below average in Michigan over the next week.
Drier Pattern For the Weekend

Posted:Thu, 22 Jun 2017 06:32:44 +0000

Here’s local and regional radar – these will update automatically. The rain has moved out of the area. There is a slight chance of a shower Saturday and Sunday – most showers would be light, east of US 131, very widely scattered and in the afternoon.

Major Flooding overnight in Mt. Pleasant / Isabella Co. Up to 11:55 – Winn had 5.4″ of rain and has had more since. Mt. Pleasant reported 3.24″ as of 3 am with heavy rain still coming down. Many roads/streets in Isabella County are closed due to flooding. The graph is the Chippewa River at Mt. Pleasant and you can see the level shooting up with the heavy rain. As of around midnight, Shepherd had 3.48″, Evart 2.55″, Howard City had 2″ in 2 hours/20 minutes, Mecosta had 1.38″. There were several trees knocked down by strong wind in Isabella County. Storms are training – individual storms moving west to east over the same spot…like cars on a train going down the track over the same spot. The line of showers and storms will drop south during the morning and weaken a bit.

The Storm Prediction Center has downgraded Lower Michigan from a Slight Risk to a Marginal Risk. The rain and storms should move east and south of our area by midday.

Here’s the heavy rain discussion from the Weather Prediction Center. This was the area outlined for heavy rain.

Allegan had 0.79″ of rain in an hour from 6 to 7 pm Thurs. evening, and 1.02″ in the two hours from 6 pm to 8 pm. The temp. dropped from 83.8 to 70.5 in those two hours. Grand Junction had 1.6″ and Wayland reports 1″ of rain. There were gusts to around 30 mph. Some trees and wires down in the southeast corner of the state near Monroe.

Rainfall Thurs. morning: 1.63″ Ludington, 1.14″ Reed City, 0.91″ Big Rapids, 0.83″ Mt Pleasant (where small hail fell), 0.78″ Shelby, 0.69″ Baldwin, 0.01″ Kalamazoo, trace in Comstock Park

High temps. Thursday: 90 Benton Harbor, 89 G.R., 88 Kalamazoo and Battle Creek – 72 on the beach at Muskegon and 76 on the beach at S. Haven. Morning water temps: 75 at Reeds Lake – 70 at Saugatuck, 69, S. Haven and Hoffmaster, 68 at Pentwater and 66 at Muskegon. Waves should run around 2 feet this PM with a moderate risk of structural and rip currents.

Also – record high of 117 in Phoenix AZ Weds. Record low high temp. of 75 at Birmingham AL. Pic. of Coveington Co. tornado. Video of the tornado. Ellen’s excellent adventure. Waterspouts from Tropical Storm Cindy. Another waterspout. Humidity dropped to 1% at Needles CA. There was a 59-degree temp. gradient from the S. California coast to the east desert Wednesday. The high was 65 at Del Mar Beach, and 124 at Ocotillo Wells. Up to 11″ of rain in four days in Pensacola FL. Grerat pics. from Drone8. Heavy rain in FL this month has eased the drought.

Links: Here’s Grand Rapids radar and Northern Michigan radar, Milwaukee radar, Northern I ndiana radar , Chicago radar , Detroit radar, Regional radar, the Updated GRR NWS Short Term Discussion. Here’s College of DuPage Radar Map (pick any radar in the U.S.), College of DuPage Grand Rapids radar, the West Michigan Lightning Tracker, National Lightning Tracker, the local warning/advisory map, the National warning/watch/advisory map, and a surface weather map. You can checkout the latest Grand Rapids NWS discussion, the Northern Indiana NWS discussion (includes the Michigan Counties that border Indiana), the discussion for Northern Lower Michigan, and Eastern Lower Michigan. Here’s the Spyglass Condos Weather Station, the S. Haven GLERL station, the Muskegon GLERL station, the Grand Haven Steelheaders webcam and weather station, and the weather station at Holland State Park. Check out the links to webcams. Here’s the infrared satellite loop (night) and the visible satellite loop (daytime), Lake Michigan water temperatures (summer). Here’s recent storm reports from SW Michigan, Northern Michigan, NE Illinois, SE. Wisconsin, Upper Michigan and E. Michigan. Check out the wind and wave height at the South Mid-Lake Michigan Buoy (Apr. to Nov. only), the North Mid-Lake Michigan Buoy (Apr. to Nov. only), the buoy at Big Sable Point near Ludington and the weather station on the beach at St. Joseph, the Port Sheldon buoy, the S. Haven buoy, the Muskegon buoy and the Ludington buoy. Cool U.S. satellite loop.
Anniversary of the Portland Tornado

Posted:Thu, 22 Jun 2017 05:47:23 +0000

Today (June 22 – Thurs.) is the 2-year anniversary of the Portland, Michigan tornado. Click on the pictures to enlarge. On the left is the historic First Baptist Church minus most of their roof. This was one of 4 churches to sustain damage. Next a drone image of solid EF1 tornado damage with a roof off. Up top is the tornado path from WNW to ESE to the north of I-96. A preliminary assessment by the National Weather Service estimated the twister had 100 mph winds. The path was approximately 4 miles with the maximum width was 50-100 yards. The approximate time of the twister was 2:30 pm EDT. More than 85 structures had significant damage. Hundreds of trees were significantly damaged or destroyed. some were uprooted or snapped off. There were five minor injuries. Here’s the WOOD NEWS story on the event. Brief video of the tornado. Photos of the damage.
Weds. PM Update

Posted:Wed, 21 Jun 2017 17:39:13 +0000

This is just before sunset at Grand Haven on this Summer Solstice – the longest day of the year with 15 hours and 21 minutes between sunrise (6:04 am) and sunset (9:25 pm) in Grand Rapids. We’ve got high clouds coming in. No rain out there now, but scattered showers and t-storms are expected to develop after 1 am. The latest GFS model has the chance of rain at only 6% for G.R. between now and 2 am, then 71% from 2 am to 8 am. By 8 am the showers and storms are moving east of Lansing and Jackson.

High temperatures have been reached at the lakeshore between 8 pm and 9 pm when the wind shifted to SE off the land. The S. Haven beach rose to 75 and the Muskegon Beach to 70. The high/low in G.R. today was 76/51. Watch the patchy fog dissipate this AM.

With the help of some AM sun…the water temp. at Reeds Lake in East G.R. has moved up from 74 at daybreak to 77 at 1:30 pm (at the 2-foot level). Lake Michigan water temps: 68 Ludington, Pentwater, 67 S. Haven and Grand Haven, 69 Holland, 64 Muskegon.

Also: Don’t think I’d be driving here. Egg-sized hail in Slovenia. High temps. out West today (Wed.): 123 Needles CA, 120 Bullhead City AZ, 118 Palm Springs CA, 117 Phoenix AZ, 115 Tucson AZ, 114 Las Vegas NV. Los Angeles (airport) had a high of 73 with a cool breeze coming off the ocean.