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Saturday Sunshine

Posted:Sat, 28 Feb 2015 15:32:16 +0000

The sun should hold until mid-late afternoon, when high clouds come in from the southwest. These are GLERL cam pictures this morning (from NOAA Coastwatch) from Muskegon, Alpena and Chicago. Lots of ice out there as we close out Feb.

Low temps. this morning: -4 Grand Rapids (7th time in the last 14 days we’ve been below zero), -5 Fennville, -6 Big Rapids, Hartford and Hastings, -8 Kalamazoo and Battle Creek, -9 Benton Harbor, 10 Albion, -11 Charlotte and Three Rivers, -12 Mendon, -14 Cadillac, -16 Marshall, -18 Lawrence. The low was -9 at Manistee, where the wind went calm and +16 at Ludington, where the wind held off Lake Michigan – try and forecast that. Muskegon was +4, Hudsonville +3. Climate stats from GRR NWS.

Also: A very mid-winter weather map this morning. Low temps: 11 Amarillo, -1 Colorado Springs, -15 Rochester MN, -18 Mason City IA, 15 St. Louis, 7 Indianapolis, -9 Cleveland, 12 Boston. 8″ new snow in Albuquerque NH – snow and ice at Grand Canyon AZ, 2″ sleet in Stillwater OK. Sunrise this morning in Friesland, Netherlands. Lake Blue Ridge GA looks like Michigan this AM. Dallas, Texas has had more snow this month than Anchorage and Fairbanks, Alaska combined! -10 in Chicago this morning broke the old record low by 10 deg. Great Lakes ice cover now 6% more than last year on this date. Here’s some cool snow sculptures.
Great Lakes up to 86.8% Ice Cover

Posted:Sat, 28 Feb 2015 06:54:04 +0000

   Happy Weekend! Click on the images to enlarge. Sunset picture from Jeffrey Foltice at S. Haven Friday evening. The Great Lakes are now up to 86.8% ice cover. There’s still a good deal of open water on Lakes Michigan and Ontario. As of early Sat. morning, the ice cover on the individual lakes is as follows: Lake Michigan 67.3%, Lake Superior 94.9%, Lake Huron 95.3%, Lake Erie 96%, Lake Ontario 57.1%. You couldn’t just walk across the frozen lakes. There are large cracks with open water and areas where the surface is like crushed ice in a glass of water.

Four of the last five days, we’ve had over 60% sunshine. The last 16 days have been 18.2 deg. cooler than average in G.R. Today is the 17th day in a row that’s cooler than average. During these 17 days, the warmest temperature has been 27. We’ve only had 3 days out of 28 that have been warmer than average this month.   One more cold week, then cold air retreats! When I first looked at the 2 pics. here…my first thought was flooding is sure a possibility if we get decent rain this month with a quick warm-up.

Models backing off on the Sunday snow…mostly around or slightly less than an inch over most of the area. Euro. has 0.18″ at Sturgis, would be 2 to 2 1/2″, but only an inch for Kalamazoo County. It has 0.30″ precip. for Tuesday – a mix, high mid 30s. The GFS (car.) has 0.69″ for G.R. with 1.2″ snow in that.

Also: Check out the Texas Rangers Stadium Friday.   Waterloo, IA, broke its 118-y/o Feb. 27 low temp. record with -24 F; old record: -14, 1897. Coldest February ever in Cleveland, Portland ME and on Mt. Washington NH. Up to a foot of snow fell in Alabama. Passengers were stuck on American Airlines plane for 7+ hrs at DFW waiting for plane to be deiced. Beautiful sunset at Fort Walton Beach, FL. Season snowfall: 117″ Bangor ME, 109″ Worcester MA, 103″ Buffalo, 102″ Boston, 100″ Erie PA. Snow in N. GA. Snow covers the Texas Rangers baseball field in Arlington TX. The Texas Cowtown Marathon has been cancelled. So has the Calf-Marathon. In Collin Co. Texas, police were working to clear 15 slide-offs on I-75 (13 car and 2 semis). Hailstorm in California. Great sunset pic. from Dolphin Is AL. This month will be NYC’s coldest February in 81 yrs, and one of the Top 10 coldest months ever! Neat satellite picture of the Northeast.   American Meteorology Society says House Democrat investigation into climate skeptics sends “chilling message”: http://wapo.st/17E7kt8. Cool zoomed in pic. of the Niagara River Friday. I’ve found Reed Timmer.   Huh?   “Historically, drought is the number-one climate-related cause of death. Worldwide it has gone down by 99.98% in the last eighty years.” February will easily be the coldest February on record at CLE. Current avg monthly temperature is 14.9, next coldest 16.7 set in 1978.
Snow Cover/Season Snowfall

Posted:Fri, 27 Feb 2015 17:02:45 +0000

This is going to be an awesome weekend for winter sports…get out the skis, skates, sleds, snowboards. We’ll have some sun on Sat., some snow on Sunday. Here’s some snow depths: 47″ Grand Marias, 42″ Munising, 34″ Ishpeming, 32″ Marquette Airport, 28″ Newberry, 23″ Hart, 19″ Traverse City, 17″ Muskegon, 16″ Hopkins, 15″ Fremont, 14″ Paw Paw and Houghton Lake, 13″ Kalamazoo, Grandville, Hopkins, 12″ Reed City, 11″ Lake City, 10″ East G.R., 9″ Hastings, Saranac, 7″ Grand Rapids and Lansing.

Season snowfall: Lansing 33.7″, Kalamazoo 70.3″, Grand Rapids 74.8″, Muskegon 87.9″. Leave a comment if you keep track of season snowfall.

Also: +40 vehicle accident in the snow near Melissa, TX. This February will easily be the coldest February on record at CLE. Current avg monthly temperature is 14.9, next coldest 16.7 set in 1978. Snowing in Dallas. Here comes the next Arctic Express. Time lapse of moving ice in Chicago this morning. Since 1979 (when satellite records began), Friday morning Lower 48 avg. temp of 16°F is coldest for last week of February (21st –>). Leap day 2/29/96 previous coldest at 17.5°F. 79% of the Lower 48 states were at or below 32 deg. this morning, 25% at or below zero and 10% at or below -10. Coast Guard cutter spots coyote on the ice near Quincy MA. Magnitude 7.0 earthquake reported 82m north of Nebe, Indonesia, no tsunami.
How Cold Did You Get?

Posted:Fri, 27 Feb 2015 09:12:59 +0000

  Graphic from G.R. NWS – this will be the coldest Feb. ever and the 4th coldest month ever in G.R. I left the station around 3:10 am and it was 1 above on my car thermometer. It was clear and calm. It stayed at +1 as I drove thru downtown and out on US 131. It was still +1 when I crossed the Ann St. Bridge. Once I got past the bridge, there’s a straight-away that’s low down by the river, and the thermometer dropped to -7. I then exited at Alpine and the thermometer rose back to 0 at the entrance to the mall. It was back to -2 when I got home. That’s pretty typical of calm, clear nights, where the cold air settles into low spots.    You can check the Michigan hourly temperatures here.   Another cold shot for Weds./Thurs. of next week. CFSv2 still shows general cold pattern thru March.    Temperatures were below zero this morning in at least 20 states!

Low temps. this morning: -33 Rudyard (coldest in the U.S.), -32 Leota, -29 Baldwin, -28 Pellston, -25 Cadillac & Lake City, -24 Gaylord, -22 Reed City, -21 Houghton Lake, -20 Marshall, -19, Big Rapids, Alpena, -18 Traverse City, -17 Eaton Rapids & Albion, -16 Charlotte, Belding & Ceresco, -15 Jackson, Hastings, -14 Alma, Mt. Pleasant, Coldwater, W. Olive and Twin Lake, -13 Hudsonville, Mendon and Lawrence, -12 Fremont, -11 Grand Rapids (missed record low by 1 deg.), Hart and Allendale, -10 Hopkins, Bloomingdale & Clarksville, -9 Ionia, Grandville, Sturgis and Manistee, -8 Grand Haven and Hartford, -7 Benton Harbor, Watervliet, Lawton and East G.R., -6 Kent City, +1 Fennville.    Beach temps. this AM: -3.5 Muskegon, +2.8 Milwaukee, +6.0 Chicago.

Also: New monthly February Snowfall Record for Denver as total is now up to 22.2″; old record: 22.1″, set in 1912. Snow in Ireland. Light Pillars in NW Ohio. First llamas..now this! Postcard pretty.   Snowiest calendar day ever in Huntsville AL, 8.1″ on 2/25.   Look at the snow in Blount Springs AL. Cullman AL looks like Marquette. Weiss Lake AL.   American Meteorological Society responds to Government global warming witchhunt.
MODIS satellite pictures

Posted:Fri, 27 Feb 2015 06:42:06 +0000

These are MODIS satellite pics (from NOAA Coastwatch) of Lake Michigan, Superior and Huron from Thursday PM. You can see a band of lake-effect snow coming down Lake Michigan. That band produced up to 8″ of snow in Chicago and 6″ in Milwaukee. There is still quite a bit of open water on Lake Michigan, but Huron and Superior are iced up enough to end the threat of lake-effect snow. You’d still get a small amount of warming (maybe 2-3 degrees) with the air moving across those lakes. That band of snow over Lake Michigan has been coming into Berrien Co. As the wind turns west and then southwest, the band will come onshore and dissipate. A dusting of snow is possible near the lake. Most of the day should be partly sunny and cold.

Great Lakes ice: Total – 84.1%, Superior – 94.9% , Michigan 58.9% , Huron 95.2% , Erie 95.6%, Ontario 53.6%, (links will update automatically with fresh numbers). This is the first time since the late 70s that we have had two consecutive years with Great Lakes ice reaching 80%. The strong winds we had on Tuesday didn’t break up much ice. Here’s Great Lakes water temperature over the past 5 years.

Great Lakes water levels: Lake Michigan/Huron is down one inch in the past month (precipitation is for the most part sitting on the ground and not running off into the rivers with the cold temperatures), up 21″ in the last year and it’s now 8″ higher than average for late Feb. The level of Lake Superior is down 2″ in the last month, up 8″ in the last year and 7″ above the long-term average. Lake St. Clair is down 3″ in the last month, down 1 inch in the past year and 3″ below the century average. Lake Erie is down 4″ in the last month, up one inch in the last year and exactly at the long-term average. Lake Ontario is down 5″ in the last month (open water for decent evaporation and little runoff coming into the lake with the cold temperatures), down 6″ in the last year and 6″ below the century average. The buildup of ice in the St. Clair and Detroit Rivers has caused the water level of Lake St. Clair and Lake Erie to drop in the last few weeks. The outflow on the St. Marys, the St. Clair, the Detroit and the Niagara Rivers are all expected to be above average in March.

Also: Lake Superior ice caves are open to the public. Super-Mackinac yacht race scheduled for July 11 will cover 568 miles. Confederate treasure in Lake Michigan? Cruise ship coming to the Great Lakes this summer.
Friday Morning

Posted:Thu, 26 Feb 2015 08:33:47 +0000

Friday AM – It’s mostly clear-partly cloudy and cold inland. There’s a band of lake-effect snow over Lake Michigan. That band produced up to 8″ of snow in Chicago and 6″ in Milwaukee. It shows there is still a good amount of open water. That band will migrate to the east and may bring a little light snow to western Oceana, western Mason and Berrien Counties. It’s possible that there could be a period of morning flurries tomorrow as the wind goes west off the lake, but they would be light. Dry Saturday, snow on Sunday (1-4″ – heaviest south), dry and calm Monday, a mix changes to all rain on Tuesday as we briefly get to 40 deg. Then cold again next Weds./Thurs.

More Arctic air coming down for the next several days to close out the coldest February ever in G.R. (and possibly Michigan). 16 of 25 days this month have been 10 degrees or more colder than average. Only 3 of 28 days will end up warmer than average. We’ve had only one night when the temperature stayed above 20 deg. and we’ll go over 2 months with only one day reaching 40. The average high temperatures have now reached the upper 30s.

Overnight model data: Highs/lows starting with this aftn. off the NAM (car.): 11/-9/17/-3/18. For the GFS (car): 7/-21/14/0 The GFS plot has 8/-18/2/11 and a high of 25 on Sun. The European model temps. for G.R. are 13/-17/16/-3/21 (I’d err on the high side with temps.). The European model would have about 3″ of snow for G.R. on Sunday (0.25″ precipitation) and snow to freezing rain and maybe back to snow or flurries on Tues./Tues. night. We could see some tough travel Tuesday (0.56″ precip. on that model). On the Euro., the 4th is the warmest day of the next 10 with a high around 35. So, we gotta hope we can change the Tues. storm to something other than freezing rain. The GFS plot has upper 30s on 3/10 and low-mi 40s on the 13th. No sign of spring in the first week of March.

Also: Southern storm: It’s dangerous for reporters to do “stand-ups” on the edge of a busy highway! As I write this more than 111,000 customers without power in N.C. alone, 27,500 in AL. 9″ snow Townsend TN. 8″ snow Roxburo NC, 12.5″ snow in Guin AL. Building igloos in Alabama! There was a tornado watch for N. Florida Weds. PM – about 25 wind damage reports, no tornadoes as I write this. The 51-day no-SPC-watch span is 6th longest since 1975. Last span longer was 54-days in late ’86! No severe weather because it’s been so cold. Widespread mountain snows coming in the Western U.S.

Here’s Grand Rapids radar and Northern Michigan radar, NAM model 3-day snowfall forecast and GFS model 5-day snowfall forecast. Storm Total Snowfall will show the heaviest snow and Milwaukee looping radar. Regional radar and the Updated GRR NWS Short Term Discussion. More links: Northern I ndiana radar, Chicago radar, Detroit radar and Milwaukee radar. Here’s College of DuPage Radar Map (pick any radar in the U.S.), College of DuPage Grand Rapids radar, the West Michigan Lightning Tracker, National Lightning Tracker, the local warning/advisory map and the National warning/watch/advisory map, a surface weather map. You can checkout the latest Grand Rapids NWS discussion, the Northern Indiana NWS discussion (includes the Michigan Counties that border Indiana), the discussion for Northern Lower Michigan, and Eastern Lower Michigan. Here’s the Spyglass Condos Weather Station the S. Haven GLERL station, the Muskegon GLERL station, the Grand Haven Steelheaders webcam and weather station, and the weather station at Holland State Park. Check out the Maranatha Webcam at Lake Michigan and links to webcams. Here’s the infrared satellite loop (night) and the visible satellite loop (daytime), Lake Michigan water temperatures (summer). Here’s recent storm reports from SW Michigan, Northern Michigan, NE Illinois, SE. Wisconsin, Upper Michigan and E. Michigan. Check out the wind and wave height at the South Mid-Lake Michigan Buoy (Apr. to Nov. only), the North Mid-Lake Michigan Buoy (Apr. to Nov. only), the buoy at Big Sable Point near Ludington and the weather station on the beach at St. Joseph. Here’s Michigan wind gusts from MesoWest, data from the MAWN agricultural weather stations and Weather Underground (data at the bottom from private weather stations). Here’s the Consumers Energy Power Outage Map, Here’s www.instantweathermaps.com.
Weds. night

Posted:Thu, 26 Feb 2015 00:21:20 +0000

Weds. evening – I’ll put radar back up top with a little light snow coming thru here overnight. Most areas get a dusting to an inch. Not much, but enough for a few slick spots after midnight into the morning rush hour. The snow has not been able to make much progress into the drier air over W. Michigan. Once this gets by, there could be a few flurries near the lake, but for the most part, three dry and cold days from Thursday to Saturday. We’ll get snow Sunday and snow or a mix on Tuesday. The average high is 37 now and that reaches 40 on 3/5, so even if the cold pattern continues, the averages will start to pull us up in early March.

Here’s Grand Rapids radar and Northern Michigan radar, NAM model 3-day snowfall forecast and GFS model 5-day snowfall forecast. Storm Total Snowfall will show the heaviest snow and Milwaukee looping radar. Regional radar and the Updated GRR NWS Short Term Discussion. More links: Northern I ndiana radar, Chicago radar, Detroit radar and Milwaukee radar. Here’s College of DuPage Radar Map (pick any radar in the U.S.), College of DuPage Grand Rapids radar, the West Michigan Lightning Tracker, National Lightning Tracker, the local warning/advisory map and the National warning/watch/advisory map, a surface weather map. You can checkout the latest Grand Rapids NWS discussion, the Northern Indiana NWS discussion (includes the Michigan Counties that border Indiana), the discussion for Northern Lower Michigan, and Eastern Lower Michigan. Here’s the Spyglass Condos Weather Station the S. Haven GLERL station, the Muskegon GLERL station, the Grand Haven Steelheaders webcam and weather station, and the weather station at Holland State Park. Check out the Maranatha Webcam at Lake Michigan and links to webcams. Here’s the infrared satellite loop (night) and the visible satellite loop (daytime), Lake Michigan water temperatures (summer). Here’s recent storm reports from SW Michigan, Northern Michigan, NE Illinois, SE. Wisconsin, Upper Michigan and E. Michigan. Check out the wind and wave height at the South Mid-Lake Michigan Buoy (Apr. to Nov. only), the North Mid-Lake Michigan Buoy (Apr. to Nov. only), the buoy at Big Sable Point near Ludington and the weather station on the beach at St. Joseph. Here’s Michigan wind gusts from MesoWest, data from the MAWN agricultural weather stations and Weather Underground (data at the bottom from private weather stations). Here’s the Consumers Energy Power Outage Map, Here’s www.instantweathermaps.com.
Arctic Air Rest of the Week

Posted:Wed, 25 Feb 2015 09:22:53 +0000

This is the 8-14 Day Temperature Outlook from the Climate Prediction Center for March 4 – 10. Click the pic. to enlarge. Note that most of the country is blue, which means a higher probability of cooler than average conditions. Also note that the greatest chance of cooler than average temperatures, signified by the “B” is right over Southwest Michigan (and Northern Indiana). The PNA (Pacific North American Pattern) is going negative. It’s forecast to have the lowest value of the winter on 3/1. This usually means a trough in the West. That would help to build an upper level ridge in the Southeast – hence the warm pattern for Florida (still time to plan your early March vacation!). Showers are forecast over the weekend over Northern and Central California.

Model data from last night: First, lighter winds. The NAM has nothing greater than a 10 mph wind for the next 3 days, so no drifting. The NAM has highs/lows for G.R. starting today at 15/1/7/-5/12. The GFS has 16/5/12/-3/11. The NAM mos has 16/2/9/-9/15. The GFS plot has 12/7/2/15/-20!?/10. The GFS plot would give us 0.15″ precipitation Sun./Sun. night – a couple inches of snow. Then it has 0.46″ for Tuesday, which would be a mix, probably snow to freezing rain to rain (max. 36 degrees) then back to snow before it ends. The European has 0.25″ of precipitation Sat. night thru Sun. night – about 3-3 1/2″ of snow. The Tues. event looks nasty on the European with the possibility of not only mixed precipitation, but a significant period of freezing rain Tues. night that could give us some nasty travel and a lot of closings on Weds. (4th). That’s too far out to get too excited about, but you ought to make a note to check with later forecasts on that one. The European’s warmest is low (to maybe mid) 30s next Weds. morning…nothing even up to average thru March 7.

Also: Happy Birthday to Daughter #1 today! Boston went over 100″ season snowfall last night…2nd snowiest winter ever and plenty of time to get to #1, that’s 107.6″ in 1995-96. Wow! Look at the size of the waves in Spain! and here. There’s a car in there! When does the coolest 91-day period end in the U.S. Houghton Lake has been below zero 14 days this month. Cleveland is 15 deg. cooler than average this month. Decent snowstorm for MS/AL/GA. Here’s a wider view of the Southern snowstorm. Atlanta Schools closed today. Wow, look at this picture with the Northern Lights, a lenticular cloud and the reddish glow of a volcano. Snow in Tennessee. State of Emergency in AL for 3-6″ of snow. Flying over frozen Lake Huron. Yesterday was the first day since Jan 17th that Syracuse did not receive at least a trace of snowfall. Daily record for Great Lakes ice cover. 40 record low temps. across the East Tues. AM – 27 Monday AM. National Guard response to Moore, Oklahoma tornado.
Snow, Wind and Cold Today

Posted:Tue, 24 Feb 2015 08:01:46 +0000

The Winter Weather Advisory ended. Temperatures rose into the upper 20s to even low 30s during the evening, but they have crashed as the Arctic front came thru. It’s a cold start to Wednesday.

1:35 pm Tues. from the Michigan St. Police regarding Mac. Bridge Accident in the snow and wind: “Problem started around 930 this morning when a husband and wife from Sault Ste. Marie were traveling southbound—about to enter bridge—when wife decides she can’t drive over the bridge. Tries switching seats with husband. As husband walks around the car to get into driver’s side, he is hit from behind by another car. That started a chain reaction causing 5 other crashes.

Husband is “stable” and is at a local hospital. No other serious injuries. While responding, an MSP trooper’s car slammed into a semi, destroying the cruiser but Trooper is fine. Accident cleared about 1130, but bridge remains closed due to wind…police are hoping to open it up soon.”

Also: Check out the European model for 3/5. That would make for an interesting storm! You can display your knowledge of Moroccan weather at the water cooler with this tidbit: Since Nov 1, 2014, Tangier, Morocco has received 18.23″ of rain, 1317% of what they normally see during that time period.

Here’s Grand Rapids radar and Northern Michigan radar, NAM model 3-day snowfall forecast and GFS model 5-day snowfall forecast. Storm Total Snowfall will show the heaviest snow and Milwaukee looping radar. Regional radar and the Updated GRR NWS Short Term Discussion. More links: Northern I ndiana radar, Chicago radar, Detroit radar and Milwaukee radar. Here’s College of DuPage Radar Map (pick any radar in the U.S.), College of DuPage Grand Rapids radar, the West Michigan Lightning Tracker, National Lightning Tracker, the local warning/advisory map and the National warning/watch/advisory map, a surface weather map. You can checkout the latest Grand Rapids NWS discussion, the Northern Indiana NWS discussion (includes the Michigan Counties that border Indiana), the discussion for Northern Lower Michigan, and Eastern Lower Michigan. Here’s the Spyglass Condos Weather Station the S. Haven GLERL station, the Muskegon GLERL station, the Grand Haven Steelheaders webcam and weather station, and the weather station at Holland State Park. Check out the Maranatha Webcam at Lake Michigan and links to webcams. Here’s the infrared satellite loop (night) and the visible satellite loop (daytime), Lake Michigan water temperatures (summer). Here’s recent storm reports from SW Michigan, Northern Michigan, NE Illinois, SE. Wisconsin, Upper Michigan and E. Michigan. Check out the wind and wave height at the South Mid-Lake Michigan Buoy (Apr. to Nov. only), the North Mid-Lake Michigan Buoy (Apr. to Nov. only), the buoy at Big Sable Point near Ludington and the weather station on the beach at St. Joseph. Here’s Michigan wind gusts from MesoWest, data from the MAWN agricultural weather stations and Weather Underground (data at the bottom from private weather stations). Here’s the Consumers Energy Power Outage Map, Here’s www.instantweathermaps.com.
Great Lakes Satellite Pics.

Posted:Tue, 24 Feb 2015 07:51:40 +0000

Here’s a couple of the MODIS pics. from Monday PM. Click to enlarge. These are the only two Great Lakes that still have a significant amount of open water. There’s enough open water on these two lakes to produce and enhance lake-effect clouds and snow. The other three lakes (Huron, Erie and Superior), while not completely frozen solid – are close enough to have little effect other than maybe warming the air a couple degrees as the air passes over them. Again, note that the two deep Finger Lakes south of Lake Ontario are open water. Most of Erie has solid enough ice for snow to accumulate on top of the ice (note the bright white color. It’ll be interesting to see if the wind today breaks up any of the ice. This morning the Great Lakes as a whole are 85.6% ice covered. Note a relatively small amount of the Great Lakes is “100% ice-covered”. The ice cutters are still working and wind can push the ice away from the windward shore. Max ice will likely come in early March.