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Severe Risk Fri. Night and Saturday

Posted:Fri, 21 Jul 2017 06:28:06 +0000

These are the Severe Weather Outlook maps for today (Fri.), tomorrow (Sat.) and the next day (Sun.). We’ll stay dry today, but the chance of severe weather will increasing late Fri. night (after midnight) into Saturday. Today, there is an Enhanced Risk Area (in orange) that runs from the eastern Dakotas to southern Wisconsin and far northern Illinois. Surrounding that is a Slight Risk Area (in yellow) that is west of a line from Whitehall to Coldwater. The rest of our area is in the Marginal Risk Area. Again, we’ll stay dry today with our risk coming after sunset (probably after midnight). SPC says: “…Northern Plains across the Upper MS Valley and toward Lake Michigan…development is possible after 2 pm across central MN into western WI. Mesoscale Convective Complex potential, with subsequent southeastward motion and attendant damaging wind threat.”

Saturday, the Slight Risk Area (in yellow) covers everyone south of a line from Ludington to Port Huron. SPC says: “A large area of convection is forecast to be ongoing over the southern Great Lakes area and vicinity early in the period…new storm development is forecast on the southern and western flank of this convection, as afternoon heating…Multiple bands/clusters of storms will likely traverse the area through the afternoon and evening…risk for damaging winds and hail will exist with stronger storms/storm clusters moving quickly east-southeast across the region.”

Regional and local radar maps should update automatically.

Overnight model data: The GFS is warmer than the NAM. The high temps. for the next 3 days for G.R. on the NAM are 88, 80 and 77. On the GFS we get 94, 88, 86. The GFS chance of rain is 69% tonight, 67% on Saturday. The NAM has 86% tonight and 61% for Saturday.

Also: Wildfire burns 1,000 acres in New Jersey. California fire officials say a wildfire west of Yosemite National Park has destroyed 99 structures, 45 of them homes.

A survey carried out on behalf of the John Muir Trust (JMT) found that 55% of respondents were “less likely” to venture into areas of the countryside industrialized by giant wind turbines, electricity pylons and super-quarries, reports The Times ).Just 3% said they were “more likely” to visit such areas, while 26% said such large-scale developments would make “no difference”.
Rare Seiche on Lake Michigan

Posted:Fri, 21 Jul 2017 05:45:53 +0000

A rare phenomena called a seiche (pronounced sāsh – with a long “a”) occurred on Lake Michigan Thursday morning. A seiche occurs when strong winds push and move the surface water. With a strong west wind, the water level of the lake will drop on the west side of the lake and rise on the east side of the lake. This can be caused by a relatively quick line of severe thunderstorms with strong winds, or it can be more gradual, as with the “Gales of November” low pressure systems that cause a “standing seiche” that may last for a day or more. The seiche Thursday AM was caused by a north-south oriented line of thunderstorms that was pushing out wind gusts of 30-50 mph from far SE Wisconsin down thru the Chicago area.

In the case of the line of storms like Thurs. AM, the water level quickly drops on the west side of the lake as the storm passes and the water sloshes back and forth, causing several rises and falls, which can be very dangerous. An example of that was the 1954 seiche that occurred in Chicago, that resulted in 7 fatalities and the July 4, 2003 scieche that resulted in seven fatalities in Berrien County, Michigan.

This is a graph of the water level of Lake Michigan at Calumet Harbor. Note the level was pretty steady…then dropped rapidly as a line of thuderstorms with +40 mph winds passed through. The wind pushed the water toward the Michigan side of the lake. Then as the storm passed, the water sloshed back, rising approximately 2 feet in less than an hour.. Shifting winds and a second area of storms caused a second fall/rise couplet. As the water retreats from shore, it can pull swimmers out into the middle of the lake. That’s why you should stay out of the water in the couple hours following a storm with strong winds. During the derecho of 1998, the water level of Lake Michigan fell and rose nearly 4 feet. Fortunately, at 5:30 am on a Sunday morning after a storm like that, no one was taking a swim in Lake Michigan.

Here’s a link to a pic. that shows the rise and fall of the water level of Lake Michigan Thurs. AM. You can read about a large seiche that occurred on Lake Erie. Time lapse of a seiche on Lake Michigan. 12 natural phenomena seen in Michigan.
August Temperature and Rainfall Forecast

Posted:Fri, 21 Jul 2017 00:49:09 +0000

This is the latest temperature outlook from the Climate Prediction Center. It goes by chances of above (orange and red colors) or below average temperatures (blue colors). They have Michigan and most of the country with a higher than average percentage of warmer than average temperatures.

This is their August rainfall forecast. Most of the country is in “EC” which means they think there is an equal chance of above or below average temperatures. They feel there is a little higher than average chance of above average temperatures in the Four Corners states and the Rio Grande Valley…also in western Alaska.
Anniversary of the First Moon Landing

Posted:Thu, 20 Jul 2017 23:31:05 +0000

Today is the 48th anniversary of the first moon landing. Neil Armstrong emerged from the lunar module called “The Eagle” a few minutes before 11 pm EDT, walked down the ladder, planted his foot on the moon and said “That’s one small step for a man, one giant leap for mankind.” (› Play Audio). I remember the night well. It was the summer after I graduated from high school (side note – my high school won the state of Illinois Science Olympiad this year!). My friend, Dennis and I dragged their TV out into the middle of the back yard (with 2 extension cords) and we watched the moon (crescent if I remember right) and the TV at the same time.

This is Buzz Aldrin becoming the 2nd man to walk on the moon. In the 3 1/2 years after the two Apollo 11 astronauts walked on the moon, ten other men did the same. There have been no human moon landings since Dec. 1972.

An anniversary gala was held last Saturday at the Kennedy Space Center, hosted by Apollo 11 astronauts Buzz Aldrin and Michael Collins. A charity auction of space memorabilia raised $57,838 from a silent auction, and $134,950 from the live auction.
Major Earthquake

Posted:Thu, 20 Jul 2017 22:59:28 +0000

A major earthquake has rocked the West Coast of the country of Turkey. The quake had a preliminary magnitude of 6.7 and was just 6.3 miles below the Earth’s surface. The time of the quake was 6:31 pm EDT. There is no word yet on a possible tsunami. There was a report of a “small tsunami at Bodram, Turkey. This is the third major earthquake in the last 3 days. A powerful magnitude 7.8 quake occurred Tuesday east of Russia’s Kamchatka Peninsula and west of the Aleutian Islands of Alaska. There was also a strong quake along the coast of Peru on Tuesday. That temblor measured magnitude 6.4. There have already been several aftershocks – including a magnitude 4.4 quake and a magnitude 4.7 quake.

BREAKING: Mayor of Kos, Greece, says 2 people were killed in earthquake and buildings on island have sustained structural damage. “Just experienced 30 second earthquake in #Rhodes I hope there are no injuries. Building shook furiously. But all ok.” Video of flooding from local tsunami. There was an unofficial report of 200 injured. Several fires have been started by the quake. More damage pics. here.
Rotary BBQ

Posted:Thu, 20 Jul 2017 07:38:49 +0000

Today, I’ll be at the 2nd Comstock Park Rotary BBQ fundraiser of the summer (my wife is a member). The weather should be warm. Any showers and storms will probably end by the time we get going around the noon hour. Several blog readers usually stop down at the BBQs , so hopefully a few of you can grab a lunch or dinner. I’m there around Noon and you can join me if you like. We talk weather or whatever. The three BBQs this summer are on Thursdays – June 1, July 20 and August 31.. They’ll be serving food from 11:30 a.m. – 6:30 p.m.

The Comstock Park Rotary does a lot of good work in the community. Money from the BBQ goes to give a $1,000 scholarship to a graduating senior from Comstock Park High School and a $1,000 scholarship to a graduating senior from Kenowa Hills High School. The C.P. Rotary built and are helping to maintain Grotto Park on the North Side of the Veterans Home on Monroe, NW and with the help of Amway Employees built the new playground in the York Creek Area.

The BBQ is at Dwight Lydell Park in “downtown” Comstock Park on West River Drive, just down the road from 5th/3rd Park, with an easy on and off to US 131. Along with the traditional chicken, they’ll have sausage and ribs. DINNER INCLUDES: Entrée, 2 sides, roll, butter, and drink.
PRICES: ½ Chicken $9, Sausage $8, Rib $11 (half) or $16 (whole)

There’s a gazebo with tables, so you can get out of the sun or rain. If you’re in the Comstock Park area, we’ll deliver dinners to your business or home if you like. CONTACT: 616-460-4558 or nmulder@kdl.org for advance orders of 10 or more. Delivery offered in the Comstock Park area.

More on the severe weather potential in the thread below this one.
Severe Potential

Posted:Wed, 19 Jul 2017 15:56:47 +0000

These are the Severe Weather Outlook maps for the next 3 days. Areas from Grand Rapids north are in the Marginal Risk Area for this Thursday and areas to the south and east of Kent County are in the Slight Risk Area. For Friday, areas south of I-96 are in the Slight Risk Area for Friday – with the Marginal Area north of I-96. Saturday most of Lower Michigan is in the Slight Risk Area for severe weather. SPC says: “Early storms are expected across Lower Michigan and vicinity this morning,,,”

Showers and weak t-showers late Weds. PM produced 0.51″ of rain in an hour at Albion. Ceresco had 0.15″ and the Battle Creek Airport had 0.07″.

Warm and muggy here in MI – the water temp. of Reeds Lake is up to 80 on Weds. Lake Michigan water temps. are draggin’ a bit…61 at Grand Haven, 60 at Hoffmaster, 63 at Muskegon St. Park. Warmer water at Saugatuck (70) and S. Haven (71). The temperature reached 90 degrees in G.R. on Weds. That’s the first 90-degree temperatures we’ve had since 6/14 and the 5th 90-degree day of the summer. It was much cooler at the Lake Michigan beaches. When Grand Rapids was 90, the Muskegon Beach thermometer read 69. BTW, the Muskegon beach thermometer rose 9.2 degrees between midnight and 1 am because the wind shifted from southwest off the water to southeast off the land.

At 7 pm CDT, the heat index was 111 in Omaha NE – also 111 at St. Joseph MO, where the dewpoint was 81. Valentine, Nebraska hit 112 degrees on Weds., which broke their daily record high by 4 degrees. In the entire U.S., only Death Valley CA was warmer at 113. The coolest spot in the U.S. was 29 at Bodie St. Park CA – which is only 175 miles in a straight line from Death Valley! Here’s why one spot is so hot and the other so cool.

Regional and local radar maps should update automatically.
Mackinac Island Storm

Posted:Wed, 19 Jul 2017 01:02:14 +0000

Heavy thunderstorms moved across the U.P., northern Lower Michigan and much of Wisconsin this afternoon and evening. This is what the storm looked like moving into Mackinac Island, where they had a gust to 35 mph. Pic. from Sandi Steensma.

This is the storm moving across the Mackinac Bridge, where they recorded a peak gust of 45 mph. To be severe, there must be a wind gust of 58 mph or higher. Other peak gusts: 37 mph at Shot Point, 35 mph at Munising and Kingsford, 33 mph at Pellston and 30 mph at Burt Lake. Half-inch hail pelted Manistique and Herman. 1.25″ of rain fell at Big Bay with 1.10″ at Negaunee. Tree branches were down near Green Bay WI, at Lucas MI and just northwest of Marquette MI.

Here’s a lightning flash over Lake Michigan this evening at Sleeping Bear Dunes (from beachbumjoe).

Here’s the shelf cloud about 9 miles west of St. Ignace on US 2 (pic. by the esteemed Joe “INDY” Nawrot.

More pics. here (scary)…here (Grand Traverse Bay)…and here (Glen Lake).
Chance of Severe Weather

Posted:Tue, 18 Jul 2017 23:46:47 +0000

These are the Severe Weather Outlook maps for today (Weds.), tomorrow (Thu.) and the next day (Fri.). SPC has upgraded to an Enhanced Area for today from the Eastern Dakotas to far NW Illinois. That is surrounded by a Slight Risk Area in yellow. We have the dark green Marginal Outlook now barely coming into Michigan from Holland south to Indiana. All of W. Michigan is in the Marginal Outlook (dark green) for Thursday.

Up top is a map from the Storm Prediction Center that shows the probability of a wind damage report within 25 miles of a given point on July 18. This covers 39 years of data. There’s a higher probability of seeing a severe wind gust in Hillsdale MI at this time of year than in any of Texas…a higher probability in Battle Creek than in Oklahoma City and a higher probability in Phoenix AZ than in Houston TX.

This map shows the dewpoints at 7 pm. Quite a difference! There’s a nice area of lower dewpoints from G.R. north and west, with higher dewpoints north, west and south. The dewpoint is a muggier 67 at Sturgis, 65 in Coldwater and Battle Creek – but it’s only 47 at Benton Harbor, 49 at Big Rapids and 46 at Mt. Pleasant. To the north, the dewpoint is 64 at Traverse City and Charlevoix. Across Lake Michigan, the dewpoint is 66 at Milwaukee and a VERY muggy 74 at both Green Bay and Menominee. The thunderstorms that are living off those 70-degree dewpoints will fall apart as they reach the drier air over W. Michigan. When you’re forecasting and considering the risk of patchy fog, you consider (among other things) the dewpoint. Just looking at this map, if you had clear skies and light winds, you’d have to say the chance of fog tonight would be greater south of I-94 than in Mt. Pleasant.

This is a pic. from the S. Haven buoy camera around 7 pm. Note the cloud sticking straight up. I don’t know for sure if it’s a cloud or an old jet contrail. It might also be more horizontal than vertical. At 7 pm, the air temp. at the buoy was 75 (warmer than at the beach). The water temp. at the surface was 72 (also warmer than at the beach). At a depth of 36 feet, the water temp. was 56 and at a depth of 49 feet, the water temp. was 48. Waves at 7 pm were running only 5 inches.

Regional and local radar maps should update automatically.
One More Dry Day

Posted:Tue, 18 Jul 2017 06:23:19 +0000

The pic. above is from the S. Haven GLERL camera Monday PM (from NOAA Coastwatch). While temperatures reached the low 80s in inland areas – it was cooler here at the beach, where the Muskegon beach weather station high temp. was 71.4 at 11 am when the wind was northeast off the land. Then the wind turned northwest off the cooler lake and the temp. fell to 63.9 at noon and held in the mid 60s during the PM. At the S. Haven beach, the high was 69.8. The strong north wind kicked up waves of 4-7 feet and caused some upwelling of cooler water. The water temp. early Mon. at Grand Haven was only 50. Other water temps. at Lake MI. were in the 60s. Reeds Lake had a midday water temp. of 77. The southwest wind today will bring warmer water back to Grand Haven. No rain today, but we’ll have a chance of an isolated shower or t-storm from Weds. into the weekend. The GFS has only a 31% chance of measurable rain for Weds. for G.R. , but a 64% chance on Thurs.

This will be a Clean Air Action Day for Van Buren, Berrien and Cass Counties and also the Detroit area.

This is a grab from the Barrow, Alaska webcam. This is the land of the midnight sun in summer. The next sunset at Barrow will be Aug. 2. Barrow had a warm day (for them) Monday with a high of 62. You can see the ice has pulled away from the shore. Nome AK had nearly an inch of rain on Monday (0.96″), a heavy rain for them. On the U.S. cities summary, Orlando FL had the most rain with 3.04″ on Monday – and despite all that rain, the temp. never got lower than 75. It was hot in the Northern Plains, with Aberdeen, Winner and Philip SD all recording a high of 104. That was hotter than AZ, where Tucson had a high of just 91. Arizona continues to get spotty heavy rain. 24-hour rainfall included 0.99″ at Scottsdale, 0.56″ at the Grand Canyon and 0.43″ at Phoenix.

There’s still about 10% ice cover on Hudson Bay. I read that the polar bears moved off the ice and into the land areas around Churchill. You can see there’s still snow in the high mountains of California.

Big increase in snow this year in Greenland. More on this at the website of the Danish Meteorological Institute.
Two BIG Earthquakes

Posted:Tue, 18 Jul 2017 06:02:13 +0000

Two strong earthquakes occurred late Monday. A magnitude 7.8 earthquake occurred at 7:34 EDT east of Russia’s Kamchatka Peninsula and west of the Aleutian Islands of Alaska. This is the strongest earthquake anywhere in the world since January. The quake was center 6 miles down and did not generate a significant tsunami. Interesting fact…The earthquake released more energy (Joules) than all Lower 48 earthquakes since 1992 combined! There have been a dozen aftershocks as I write this.

The second quake was magnitude 6.4 and was centered just off the coast of Peru. Again, fortunately, there was no significant tsunami. This was a deep earthquake – 27 miles down. It occurred at 9:05 pm EDT.
Smoke from Canadian Wildfires Giving W. Michigan a Colorful Sunset

Posted:Tue, 18 Jul 2017 00:59:08 +0000

Smoke from wildfires in Canada has moved south into Michigan and over Lake Michigan, giving west Michigan an interesting sunset.

In this pic. from the Grand Rapids National Weather Service, you can see the smoke layer to the west at sunset. The smoke is aloft. You should smell any smoke from the Canadian fires at ground level.

You can see the layers of smoke at sunset from our Calvin College skycam.
Tropical Storm “Don”, “Greg” and next “Hilary”

Posted:Tue, 18 Jul 2017 00:11:02 +0000

Tropical Storm “Don” has formed in the Atlantic to the east of the Lesser Antilles Islands. A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the island of Grenada and Tropical Storm Watches are up for the Grenadines, St. Vincent, Barbados and St. Lucia. The storm is moving west and will bring heavy showers and gusty winds to the islands. The storm is not expected to reach hurricane status and should dissipate within 72 hours as it enters a less favorable environment. Don is the fourth named storm in what I think will be an active hurricane season in the Atlantic/Caribbean/Gulf of Mexico. Don is moving west at 17 mph. The other 3 tropical storms so far this season (Arlene, Bret and Cindy) did not reach hurricane strength (74 mph winds). Don poses no threat to the U.S.

Here’s the wind speed probability forecast.and links to the latest Discussion on the storm, the latest Public Advisory. Here’s Grenada radar...the rainbow satellite loop...and the black and white satellite loop.

It’s been 4,284 days (nearly 12 years) since the last major hurricane (Category 3 or higher) made landfall on the mainland U.S. – the longest period of time ever between major hurricane hits. On a global level, accumulated tropical cyclone energy is at its lowest level on record, according to Colorado State University hurricane expert Dr. Philip Klotzbach. On average, a major hurricane makes landfall in the U.S. about once every three years,” according to NOAA’s 2016 hurricane season report.

This is the Eastern Pacific, with Hurricane Fernanda (which will weaken to a Tropical Storm, then just a depression), Tropical Storm “Greg” and soon-to-be Tropical Storm “Hilary”.
Northern Lights?

Posted:Mon, 17 Jul 2017 21:58:45 +0000

We have a very small chance of seeing the Northern Lights (also known as the Aurora Borealis) tonight. The picture above was taken May 8, 2016 near Luther, Michigan in Lake County. It shows what we might be able to see tonight, mainly a greenish glow on the Northern Horizon.

The kp-index gives us a clue as to whether we’ll be able to see the aurora. As of 2:40 am, the kp-index was 3 – which is not good. We were at a 6 at 4 pm. The higher the number, the better the chance of seeing the Aurora. At a 6 – we would probably be able to see a green glow to the north if you are away from artificial (man-made) light. At a 3 – virtually, no chance. However, that number can change. We’ll continue to track the kp-index through the night. The graphic here should update every few hours.

Here’s the Northern Lights at the Mac. Bridge Sun. night. Here’s pics. of the northern lights in Quebec…Upstate New York…Yellowstone N.P. (the “flicker”)…and New Zealand (Southern Lights).
Great Lakes Water Levels

Posted:Mon, 17 Jul 2017 06:50:42 +0000

The top pic. was taken around 3:30 pm Sunday at the Muskegon Channel. Hard to believe on a sunny, mid-July Sunday that there are no boats to be seen. There were Small Craft Advisories and a Beach Hazard Statement in effect. While temperatures reached the low 80s inland, readings reached only the mid-upper 60s with a 20-25 mph north wind. Lot of boats stayed in the connecting inland lakes. Water levels on the Great Lakes remain high. Lake Superior is up 4″ in the last month, up 2″ in the last year and is now 10″ above the average water level. Superior is only 2″ from the record high July water level. Lake Michigan-Huron is up 5″ in the last month, up 6″ in the last year and is now 17″ above the average July level. However, it’s still 16″ below the highest July level reached in 1986. Lake Erie is down 1″ in the last month, but up 11″ in the last year. Erie is 19″ above the century July average and 10″ below the highest July level also reached in 1986. Lake Ontario continues to be at a record high water level – 2″ higher than it has ever been in July (old record was in 1947). Ontario is down 4″ in the last month, but up 30″ since July 2016. Lake St. Clair is up 4″ in the last month, up 9″ in the last year and is now 21″ above the average July water level. All the connecting rivers have above average flow and that should continue through the rest of the summer.

Here’s Lake Michigan water temperatures. We’re not as cool as 2014 and 2015, but cooler than 2012. Remember, that was the year with the big “heat waves” in March and July.