FeedBurner makes it easy to receive content updates in My Yahoo!, Newsgator, Bloglines, and other news readers.
Interesting satellite loop. You can see the low centered over Central Lower Michigan. Thunderstorms in NW Ohio are moving southeast, while the anvil tops are expanding to the NNW up into Michigan. What’s left of a very weak front is across N. Illinois, N. Indiana and N. Ohio where thunderstorms have been developing. There has been some sun south of Kent County where the temperature has made it up to 82 in Marshall and 81 in Kalamazoo and Battle Creek. Under the low overcast from Kent Co. to the north, it’s in the mid 70s with pockets of drizzle. I’m working on the evening forecast. Ellen (and a big team from news and sports) will be in Kalamazoo for the Spartans/Broncos game). I had lunch with Laura Velasquez (who is moving from Denver to Pennsylvania), daughter #2 and a bunch of their friends. Morning run of the GFS has highs for G.R. starting tomorrow (Sat.) of 85, 89, 87, 76, 80, 80, 70. The highest percent chance of measurable rain is 63% next Tuesday. Here’s GRR radar and regional radar.
Check out this picture from facebook friend Shannon Hoorn. This is by Mackinaw City and shows the one year change in the water level of Lake Michigan/Huron (a single lake for lake level purposes). All the Great Lakes have significantly above average water levels. Lake Michigan/Huron down 1″ in the last month, up 8″ in the last year and is now 8″ above the average September water level. Lake Superior is unchanged in the last month, up 1″ in the last year and 7″ above the average September water level. Lake Erie is down 6″ in the last month, but is still 8″ above the level of one year ago. Erie is now 15″ above the average July level. There is still some concern that a strong wind (derecho moving down the lake) could cause significant flooding if the winds push the water toward shore. Lake Ontario is down 7″ in the last month, up 5″ in the last year and is now 10″ above the average September level. Lake St. Clair is also quite high, despite losing 4″ in the last month. St. Clair is up 8″ in the last year and it’s now 14″ above the average level for September. Some inland lakes also have relatively high water levels. The St. Mary’s, Niagara and St. Lawrence Rivers will continue to have above average flow. The St. Clair and Detroit Rivers should also continue to have above average flow. Here’s some current (Friday AM) flow numbers in cubic feet per second compared to median flow: Grand River at Grand Rapids 2230 (1450), Kalamazoo River at New Richmond 1490 (1409), Huron River at Ann Arbor 1436 (151), Maumee River at Defiance OH 675 (375).
The GRR NWS has issued a Dense Fog Advisory until 10 am for just Gratiot and Montcalm Counties. You can check current conditions and visibilities here. The usual cautions apply: Leave early, drive slowly, use low-beam headlights and leave a good interval between vehicles. We also (as I write this around 1 am) have a Flood Advisory for Gratiot Co. until 7:45 am.
Also: Full Earth satellite picture – mostly clear day over both North and South America. The origin of the word “muggy”. Some really cool clouds…man survives being swept over waterfall in a flash flood. Rainfall totals in Hawaii: 0.99″ Honolulu, 1.73″ Puhi, 3.09″ Aloha Tower. More here. Dole Cannery and surrounding offices evacuated due to flooding, including electrical rooms. Lightning strike “blew off roof”. The Aurora Borealis was visible overnight (too bad we had clouds and fog). The Aurora seen from the Intl. Space Station. Geese in Georgia. Sunset, Panama City. Lots of tropical storms…pretty much all missing land. The next 2 weeks are, on average, the peak of the hurricane season. This link is just for “Rocky”. Waterspouts!
9:30 pm - CMU hanging in there with Ok. State toward the end of the 3rd quarter, 17-13 OK ST. Utah up 10-3 on Mich. A last t-shower in Hillsdale Co. and a few other light showers/sprinkles. Most of us will be dry the rest of the night with patchy fog. Winds of 35-40 mph and heavy rain were reported in the heavier storms. They did have a gust to 59 mph at the Flint Airport. Powerlines fell into a house near Dexter and started a fire. 4.3″ of rain has been reported near Midland, with 2.54″ at Auburn in Bay Co. 2.25″ of rain fell in 6 hours near Dryden in Lapeer Co. Radar indicates up to 3″ of rain fell in Isabella Co. 2.09″ in Mt. Pleasant. Flood Advisories have been issued for Gratiot, Eaton and Ingham Counties. Rain totals from 8 am to 2 pm were 0.54″ in G.R. and in Mt. Pleasant, 0.85″ in Big Rapids, 1.02″ in Saginaw, 1.18″ in Houghton Lake and 1.25″ at Midland. Rainfall from 2 pm to 8 pm included 2.05″ at Mt. Clemens. Here’s storm reports from SW Michigan, SE Michigan, N. Michigan.
Email sent to me this am from the storm last night in S. Ottawa Co: The storm that rolled through Ottawa county last evening that prompted the severe storm warning for Eastern Ottawa and Kent counties, caused damage here in the mobile home park in which I live. I have a tree on my house, and a shed door almost blown off. Parts of my tree is down the road, under cars, hooked on a truck hitch, and in between my house and my next-door neighbor. I noticed at the time of the storm, heavy rain, strong wind, and hail, which started very light but got heavy. The lightning was bright. After the storm passed, I was out checking my damage and my neighbors were doing the same. The tree that came down on my house came down from the south. My daughter, who lives 2 doors down to the north of me, lost her southeast side skirting. A patio table that is on the front side patio, was blown up against the house, which would be going west. Another neighbor across the street from her, had south side house siding blown off. The trim on his home is ripped up from the east going west. With it being dark out after the storm we did not get much a tour of the park to see what other damage is around us. Radar indicated possible straight-line winds near Zeeland. If you had damage leave a comment below.
Earlier – GUST to 58 mph with visibility down to 1/4 mile in a heavy t-storm at Houghton Lake Tues. evening. Gust to 45 mph, 1/2″ diameter hail and 1.5″ of rain just southest of Gaylord. An inch of rain in 15 min. at Charlevoix and 1.27″ of rain at Atlanta. Mio had 0.82″ of rain. Wind damage near Ann Arbor.
The high temp. of 89 in G.R. Weds. made yesterday the 3rd warmest day of the summer. It was cooler at Lake Michigan, where the afternoon beach high temp. at Muskegon was a more comfortable 76 – the afternoon high at the S. Haven beach was 77. The warm air boosted the water temp. of Reeds Lake to 76. High temps. from WOOD’s Weather Stations Weds: 87 at WOOD-TV (Heritage Hill), downtown G.R. (GVSU), Hudsonville (city hall), Jenison (high school), and Calvin College…84 Boatwerks in Holland, 83 Muskegon (GVSU), 80 Grand Haven (Bilmar’s).
We have a chance of showers and storms today and Friday. Severe weather is unlikely, but brief heavy rain is likely with the heavier storms. Some non-severe gusty winds and small hail is possible. The radars here will update automatically…here’s a satellite loop and a surface weather map, . Here’s GRR looping radar and the GRR NWS discussion. Here’s SPC severe weather outlooks…only the usual General T-Storm Outlooks for West Michigan. They did have some 1″ diameter hail and a couple trees down in NE Wisconsin. Here’s SE U.S. radar – some heavy rain in SE Georgia. Farther west, we have showers and storms from the Gulf Coast northward. Showers and cooler temps. in Washington state continue to help firefighters. Here’s Michigan weather observations.
Links: Here’s Grand Rapids radar and Northern Michigan radar, Milwaukee looping radar. Regional radar and the Updated GRR NWS Short Term Discussion. More links: Northern Indiana radar, Chicago radar, Detroit radar and Milwaukee radar.Here’s College of DuPage Radar Map (pick any radar in the U.S.), College of DuPage Grand Rapids radar, the West Michigan Lightning Tracker, National Lightning Tracker, the local warning/advisory map and the National warning/watch/advisory map, a surface weather map. You can checkout the latest Grand Rapids NWS discussion, the Northern Indiana NWS discussion (includes the Michigan Counties that border Indiana), the discussion for Northern Lower Michigan, and Eastern Lower Michigan. Here’s the Spyglass Condos Weather Station the S. Haven GLERL station, the Muskegon GLERL station, the Grand Haven Steelheaders webcam and weather station, and the weather station at Holland State Park. Check out the links to webcams. Here’s the infrared satellite loop (night) and the visible satellite loop (daytime), Lake Michigan water temperatures (summer). Here’s recent storm reports from SW Michigan, Northern Michigan, NE Illinois, SE. Wisconsin, Upper Michigan and E. Michigan. Check out the wind and wave height at the South Mid-Lake Michigan Buoy (Apr. to Nov. only), the North Mid-Lake Michigan Buoy (Apr. to Nov. only), the buoy at Big Sable Point near Ludington and the weather station on the beach at St. Joseph. Here’s Michigan wind gusts from MesoWest, data from the MAWN agricultural weather stations and Weather Underground (data at the link from private weather stations). Here’s the Consumers Energy Power Outage Map.
The warm and muggy air sticks around through Labor Day and in fact, the real less humid air probably won’t really get here until around Thursday of next week.
These are pics. from the GLERL cams (from NOAA Coastwatch). Click on the images to enlarge. On the left we have sunrise at S. Haven Tues. AM – In the middle, an afternoon pic. of downtown Chicago and on the right, sunset in Muskegon. Here’s an overhead view of the MODIS satellite. Note the absense of cumulus clouds near Lake Michigan due to the stablizing lake breeze. At the Muskegon Beach, the high temp. was 77.5°. At the S. Haven Beach, the high temp. was 77.0°. Inland, the Muskegon airport made 85° and the S. Haven Airport peaked at 87°.
Look at what happened at the Milwaukee Beach Weather Station Tues. PM: At 5 pm local time, the temperature was 68.7° with a southeast wind (144 degrees) off the cooler water of Lake Michigan. At 6 pm, the temperature rose to 86.2° with a southwest wind (233 degrees) coming from the land. Then at 7 pm, the temperature was back to 70.3° with a southeast wind (151 degrees).
The high of 88° in G.R. Tuesday tied for 3rd warmest day of the summer. A few areas saw a shower or t-shower this PM. You can see where it rained on NEXRAD storm total rainfall (before they reset it). Here’s a pic. from the GRR NWS showing a small cumulonimbus just north of Belding during the early evening. Over the last 8 days, the average wind speed has been 4 mph (not a lot of help for the wind turbines trying to help with the higher electricity use due to A.C.). A summary of August weather from GRR NWS.
Also: Hard frost up in Alaska. Here’s an overhead view of the retreat of the Mendenhall Glacier in Alaska – a retreat that started well before the addition of CO2 to the atmosphere. Sunset in St. Lucia. Hurricane on the Dateline. “When Peace Like a River….” Lowest Labor Day gas prices in 11 years! Cap Cloud. Cooler temps. in the Pacific NW continue to help fire fighters. Highs today: 67° Seattle, 75° Spokane, 76° Portland OR…Hill City KS reached 100° – warmest in the U.S. was Death Valley CA at 112°. San Juan, Puerto Rico had 1.64″ of rain. I looked up the climate summary for August for San Juan. They had high temps. ranging from 82° to 92° and wound up 0.5° cooler than avg. They had 5.96″ of rain, half an inch above average. Not a purple tornado…but a nice “rain foot”. First a “Godzilla” El Nino, now a “Godzilla” cloud.
Finally – Happy Birthday to Daughter #3.
Happy September and happy meteorological fall (which is the months of Sept./Oct./Nov.)! Here’s a pic. from the S. Haven GLERL cam. (from NOAA Coastwatch). A few cumulus clouds and hazy sunshine as I write this. Here’s current Michigan observations – high temperatures so far today: 88 G.R. and Holland (airport), 89 Kalamazoo and Battle Creek, 85 at the Muskegon Airport. The 88 in G.R. ties for 3rd hottest day of the summer. It’s been cooler at Lake Michigan, where the MKG beach weather station has reached 76 and the S. Haven beach weather station shows a high of 77. That will be the case again tomorrow, so if you want to stay a little cooler, head to the Lake Michigan shoreline. There were a couple of small showers and t-showers that have developed from Allegan and SW Barry Counties to the south. Small hail fell at New Troy in Berrien Co. and brief heavy rain was reported near Mattawan. The radar has only a sprinkle in E. Allegan Co. at 7:30 pm. Here’s a satellite loop and radar.
The August weather summary for G.R. shows we had just 51% of possible sunshine (average is 61%). The average high temp. was 78.7, which was 1.9 deg. cooler than avg. The average low temp. was 60.6, which was 0.4 deg. cooler than average. Add those two numbers up and divide by 2 and you get an average temp. of 69.6 and that was 1.2 deg. cooler than average – that makes 7 out of 8 months that have been cooler than avg. in G.R. so far in 2015. G.R. had 3.75″ of rain and that was just 0.16″ above average. We had an average wind speed of 7.8 mph and we had 5 days when you could see lightning. We had one big thundertorm day and that was August 2, when almost the entire state had strong to severe winds. G.R. recorded a gust to 45 mph after reaching 91, the only 90-degree day of August and only the 2nd 90-degree day we’ve had in two years. We had 12 days with measurable rain and 3 of those days had over 1/2″ of rain. The temperature departure from average for Holland for August was -1.3, for Kalamazoo -0.8, Lansing -0.3 and Muskegon -0.1. I did not include Battle Creek, because the weather station there was off line for several days. Sept. still looks like a warm month to me…could be 3 or more degrees warmer than average and it could very well be the warmest month of 2015 relative to average before temperatures cool back to average to a little below average around the first or second week of Oct. The average high temp. goes from 78 on Sept. 1 to 67 on Sept. 30. Average wind speed of only 4 mph over the past week – not a good pattern for wind energy.
Nationally, here’s some temperature departures from average for the 3 summer months: Seattle +5.0, Las Vegas +1.8, Orlando +0.8, Nashville +0.7, Chicago -1.3, Cincinnati -1.1, Oklahoma City -1.1, Minneapolis -0.1, Boston -0.1. Here’s a look at the temperature departures from average for August for the U.S.
Also of note: From 7 PM to 9 PM last night, there were nearly 4,000 in-cloud lightning flashes over Phoenix AZ – avg one every two seconds! Here’s a list of wind damage and hail reports from central AZ – inc. 65 mph winds and some hail. Up to an inch and a half of rain fell from the storms. Phoenix officially had 0.37″. Seattle is raining and 62 deg. at 8 am PDT. The high temp. was only 66 in Seattle yesterday – the cool, damp weather has helped fire fighters make significant progress on the remaining wildfires. Number of Tropical Cyclones (87) and Hurricanes (54) globally over past 12-months is near average even with El Nino. Early frost in Anchorage, Alaska this (Tue.) morning. What happened to summer in the U.K.?
A thin layer of smoke from the (diminishing) western wildfires is giving our Michigan sky a hazy hue and painting the sun a subtle orange when close to the horizon. At Lake Michigan, the sun fades into the distant gray before reaching the nearly indistinguishable line where water meets sky.
Each day now the sun sets about 90 seconds earlier than the day before and slightly farther south. We begin the 9th inning of summer, which promises to be at least as soft and warm as the 8 that preceded it. The warm air will hold at least thru Labor Day with highs mostly in the mid-upper 80s, and mild air will likely be with us until around the 14th, when true Septemberish air moves into the Great Lakes.
Monday PM – the high temp. was 67 at Manistique and 65 at Fairport, where the south wind was coming off Lake Michgian. Farther north, the south wind boosted the temp. to 87 at Marquette and 90 at Baraga Plains.
Last 5 days, average wind speed in G.R. only 4.1 mph. Last 9 days G.R. has had 26.9% of possible sunshine – August average 61%. August ends 1.2 deg. cooler than average, give or take 1/10th of a degree. It’s the 7th out of 8 months this year with below average temperatures. High temp. in August 91 on the 2nd and the lowest 51 on the 27th and 28th. G.R. had one day in the 90s and 4 days with highs in the 60s. So far, just 2 days of 90-degrees in the last 2 summers. 3.75″ of rain in August for G.R., 0.16″ above average. Here’s first estimate of global temperature for August. Now the Ministry of Information starts adjusting.
Also: T-Storm attacks Tucson AZ. List of damage reports from AZ. More AZ damage reports. Phoenix area rain reports. Perry Park AZ had 1.26″ of rain in an hour. 57,000 customers without power in the Phoenix area overnight. Tucson are rain reports. Rainfall: 6.86″ Charleston SC, 4.47″ Mt. Pleasant SC, 3.59″ Orlando FL, 2.78″ Savannah GA. Highest in U.S. Monday was 112 at Death Valley CA and lowest was 27 at Island Park ID…Bettles and Noatak AK reached 25. Warmest summer (June-August) ever at Portland, Eugene and Salem, OR. Fred downgraded to a tropical storm…but farthest east hurricane ever (since the satellite era) in the North Atlantic. NWS finds rattlesnake in their office!!! Texas waterspout. What the moon looks like now. On the 10th anniversary of Hurricane Katrina. Dangerous flooding in Brownsville TX…report of 5.95″ of rain in 3 hours! New tropical storm “Kevin” heading toward NW Mexico.
I was at the Polish Heritage Festival both Sat. evening and Sunday. We scared most of the rain (not quite all) away Sat. evening and Sunday was dry. Great food, music and fun. I am not Polish, but my wife is half Polish (from Poznań). They presented me with this awesome Polish flag, dziękuję. Looked around for this guy, but didn’t see him while I was there. My daughter #3 plans on going to Poland next spring. Image on the right is the 2015 record of the average water temp. of Lake Michigan, which took a little dip with the clouds and cool temps. of last week – should come up some this week before the holiday. Reeds Lake water temp. at 70. Here’s some Lake Michigan water temps.
We start Monday with widespread fog, dense in places (Dense Fog Advisory) and that may be the case several mornings this week with moist air, light winds and longer nights now that we’re about to turn the calendar to Sept. Here’s current observations. The overnight GFS forecast for high temps. in G.R. starting with today (Mon.) is: 84, 87, 89, 89, 88, 84, 84, 76. The best chance of a shower or storm is Sunday PM into Monday with the next significant cool front, though I’ve included a small chance of a t-shower (mainly aftn./evening), around 20% each day to cover a random pop-up t-shower that may occur, perhaps along the lake-breeze convergence. The European has the best chance of rain on Labor Day with 850 temps. falling from 18.6C Tues. AM to 7.1 Weds. afternoon. In any case, this will be one of the warmest weeks of the summer and probably the last really warm week (though I don’t see any real cool air through at least around the 12th – it may turn cool around the 12th-13th. Here’s local and regional radar. Nice post from the GRR NWS here. What they right about the strong El Nino and the coming winter is exactly correct IMHO. Some smoke from western wildfires has made it all the way to Michigan. Here’s what the smoke did to the sunset in Wisconsin last night.
Also: The Twin-Jet Nebula. They can change the name of Mt. McKinley, but they better not change the name of this place. Go Cubbies! Tigers doing their best imitation of the 2008 Detroit Lions, losing 9 of their last 10. Brian Harman gets TWO hole-in-ones in the same round! That’s only happened twice before, once in 2006 and once in 1955. I can’t do that playing mini-golf! Arizona thundershower. Flying in the eye of Hurricane Ignacio. An old clip from the CBS Evening News. Here’s what hurricanes do to barrier islands. Damage in western Washington (non t-storm). Alaska has been cool…warmest temp. in the state on Sun. was 63 – highs Sunday: Anchorage 58, Fairbanks 48, Barrow 39 with a low of 32. Early, late summer snow coming to Northern Alaska. Flash flood in S. Utah Sunday PM. 6.43 inches so far today is the 5th wettest day on record at Charleston International Airport. (since 1938). Today is the anniversary of the landfall of Hurricane Carol in New England in 1954 – much more powerful storm than “Sandy” at landfall in 2012:
Tropical Storm Erika weakened to a weak depression quickly, but leftover moisture is providing some heavy rain to parts of Florida and the SE U.S. (current SE U.S. radar at link). Some Florida rainfall totals: 8.00″ Sweetwater, 3.69″ Tarpon Springs, 3.57″ W. Kendall, 3.23″ Vero Beach, 2.80″ Miami, 2.34″ Punta Gorda, 2.30″ Orlando (Sanford Arpt.), 1.99″ Daytona Beach. We have new Hurricane Fred off the west coast of Africa (very unusual to have a hurricane that close to the west coast of Africa), likely to strengthen some as it continues moving west-northwest. Fred may remain a hurricane for a couple/three days before starting to weaken as it encounters cooler water in the North Central Atlantic. It should be no threat to land, once it gets past the Cape Verde, Islands. Twenty known fatalities from flooding on the island of Dominica from “Erika”. There are still dozens of people listed as missing.
In the Eastern Pacific we have Hurricane Jimena, a strong category 4 storm as I write this early Monday. That storm will be no threat to land as it continues moving northwest, moving well north of Hawaii and weakening as it encounters cooler water. The next storm (as I write this marked with an “X”) will likely soon become Tropical Storm Kevin. Kevin will also likely be no threat to land. Hurricane Ignacio has reached peak intensity and will also pass far enough north of Hawaii to give them nothing much more than some high surf and an increase in showers. Here’s the Honolulu NWS discussion on the storm. I saw that Lihue had 1.36″ of rain on Friday, a daily record. Honolulu tied a record high temp. of 92 on Friday and Hilo set a record high of 89 on Sunday (the old record was 88).
Here’s a couple of pics. from KING5 (by Phil Frisk and The Outdoor Society). A powerful wind storm has left 224,000 customers in Washingon State without power. The storm brought strong winds, but also much needed rain. Wind gusts in WA: 70 Whidbey Is., 69 mph Marietta, 64 mph Sheldon and Carlyon Beach WA, 63 mph Hoquiam and Ferndale WA, 62 mph Quillayute WA, 59 mph Seattle and Cama Beach. Two deaths have been blamed on the storm, including a 10-year-old girl hit by a falling tree at an apartment complex and a driver was killed at Gig Harbor when a tree fell on a moving car. Thousands (likely tens of thousands) of trees have been uprooted. Sustained winds of 69 mph with a gust to 81 mph was reported to the Coast Guard in Rosario Strait. Oregon Peak winds: 90 mph Oceanside, 86 mph Garibaldi, 76 ph Hebo, 70 mph Cape Disappointment, 62 mph Astoria.
Also: 4.25 inches of rain fell near Gainesville, FL in only 1 hour and 15 minutes. The moisture (about all that’s left) from Erika is moving into the Gulf of Mexico. The next Tropical Storm forming off the coast of Africa will be called Fred. The following named storms when they come will be Grace, Henri and Ida. Hurricane Ignacio will pass north of the Hawaiian Islands and start to weaken as it heads toward cooler water. Hurricane Jimena is churning in the Eastern Pacific, far from land. Here’s a beautiful full-Earth pic. of the 3 hurricanes in the Pacific (Kilo, Ignacio, Jimena). Here’s a satellite loop of the 3 storms. Thunderstorms producing isolated heavy rain near Phoenix AZ. Ballgame postponed. Videos of damage from Hurricane Katrina 10 years ago in Alabama. Satellite loop of Katrina moving onshore. The plaque in Gulfport MS. That’s getting a little close! Here’s SE U.S. regional radar. Still a little bit of ice left in Hudson Bay!
High temps. Sat. in W. MI. Rainfall Sat. thru 8 pm: 0.63′ Benton Harbor, 0.38″ Muskegon, 0.32″ Kalamazoo, 0.26″ Battle Creek, 0.18″ Grand Rapids. Grand Rapids is now 1.5 deg. cooler than avg. for August. We’ve had one day with highs in the 90s and 4 days with highs in the 60s. Overnight run of the GFS high temps. for G.R. starting with today (Sun.): 80/85/86/89/89/87/84/86 with cooler air starting to arrive on Labor Day (Mon. the 7th), but only a little cooler, no real cold air in the first half of Sept. % chance of rain starting with Monday on the GFS for G.R.: 5/15/21/25/25/25/35 (Sun.). Radar in the next thread below.