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Have you ever see a green sky like that. Best I can see, the time on the clock is 3:35 pm and it looks more like nighttime. The green sky was likely due to the light hitting the monster sized hail up in the cloud. (pic. from Jaden Miller)
One hailstone measured 4.3" in diameter. There were several reports of hail 4" in diameter. It takes a heck of an updraft to keep a hailstone like that in the air.
There were 24 reports of measured wind gust of hurricane force (over 74 mph). Howard SD had a peak gust of 99 mph. The Huron SD airport measured 96 mph. Agar SD had 91 mph with Wall Lake at 85 mph. The Sioux Falls Airport had a gust to 80 mph.
Nationwide, there were 280 reports of wind damage, along with 37 reports of large hail (7 of those reports were of hail 2" or more in diameter. Severe weather occurred in 17 different states.
As of 2:30 am Wed., there were 19,262 customers without power in OH, 19,015 in California (this state always seems to have a lot of outages), 17,451 in Indiana, 10,129 in North Carolina and 6,479 in South Dakota.
They've done an excellent job of getting power restored in SD. At one point, 20,000 customers were without power in the Sioux Falls area alone and several counties had over 50% of the counties without power. There were many trees and wires down and some building damage, including one home that lost a roof.
There were also some extremely heavy rainfall totals. This is a rain gauge showing 5" of rain near Huron SD.
Satellite loop of the t-storms in South Dakota from CIMSS (Univ. of Wis. - Madison)
Flood Watches and Warnings remain in effect for much of northern Indiana, northwest Ohio and five Michigan counties that border Indiana and Ohio. Check out these 48-hour rainfall totals - up to 9" near Fort Wayne.
Today (Wed.) there are three large areas under a Slight Risk (level 2) for severe weather. The first area is from Central and Southern Indiana to the Atlantic Ocean. The second covers much of the state of Montana. The thrid area is NE Colorado, SW Nebraska and NW Kansas.
The risk for tornadoes is small. This is mainly for hail and especially for strong winds. While a general (not severe) storm is possible south of Kent County, it's likely any significant rain/storms will be across the border in Indiana and Ohio.
One more note from SPC concerning severe weather early next week: "Severe potential should persist into the early/middle portions of next week as the upper trough continues southeastward across the Midwest, Great Lakes, OH Valley, and eventually the eastern states. However, there is currently too much uncertainty in the placement and evolution of the upper trough and related surface features to include any 15% severe areas from Day 6/Monday onward."
A line of strong to severe thunderstorms moved through S. Wisconsin, N. Illinois, SW Michigan, N Ohio and N Indiana Monday PM. The storms produced isolated strong winds and pockets of heavy rain.
There were at least 7 reports of wind damage in S. Wisconsin and 35 in N. Illinois. As of 2:45 pm Tuesday, there were 9,989 customers without power in IL, 9,416 in Ohio, 4,316 in Indiana and 3,970 in Michigan. That included 139 customers in Allegan Co. and 194 in St. Joseph Co.
Here's some rainfall reports from West Michigan. While everyone saw rain, some places got very little, including just 0.02" at Portland and 0.01" at Mt. Pleasant. Holland set a record for the rainiest 4th of July.
A weather station near Portage had the highest rainfall total with nearly 3". Paw Paw had 2.6". Albion had 1" in just 1 hour and Hastings had 0.95" in one hour.
The map above is storm total rainfall from the Nexrad Radar. The yellow and orange indicate where the heaviest rainfall occurred.
Across the lake there was a gust to 64 mph at Greenwood IL, 61 mph at Roselle IL, 55 mph at O'Hare, 52 mph at DuPage and 51 mph at Midway. Rainfall totaled 4.34" at Union IL and 3.38" at Elgin IL.
Kalamazoo had a high temperature of 92 Monday afternoon - at 2 pm Monday, Kalamazoo had a relatively humidity of just 19%. With a humidity of 19%, you wouldn't think that there would be 1-2" of rainfall just 10 hours later Grand Rapids had a high temperature of 90 and had a relative humidity of 34% at 2 pm - the more humid air moved into West Michigan during the evening and overnight. It's been cooler at Lake Michigan. The Muskegon Beach had a high temperature of 77 Monday afternoon. Water temps: 75° S. Haven buoy, 69° Holland S. P., 68° Grand Haven S. P., 70° Hoffmaster S.P., 66° Ludington buoy.
The weather was good for all of the morning and midday parades.
I'll add that there is always the danger of lightning. There are a lot of people camping and doing outdoor activities.
Here's the Severe Weather Outlook Map for Tuesday. That's about the longest Slight Risk Area I've ever seen. It stretches from Central Montana to the tip of New Jersey. There is a Moderate Risk Area from S. Dakota into SW Minnesota and NW Iowa. The main threats again will be strong winds and hail.
The Marginal Risk comes up into the SW corner of Lower MI. The best bet is for the stronger storms to miss Lower Michigan and stay in S. Wisconsin, N. Illinois and N. Indiana.
The light green on the map is a General Thunderstorm Forecast. That includes New Mexico, the eastern half of Arizona, SE Utah and most of Colorado. Hopefully, we won't see any lightning-caused wildfires. Rain in that area will help alleviate the wildfire threat and provide a little runoff to the Colorado and other rivers. Salt Lake City has had only 57% of average rainfall this year. No rain under the heat bubble for much of Texas and Oklahoma where they need some rain.
The map above shows severe weather reports in the U.S. during the month of June. Red dots are tornadoes, blue dots are wind damage and green dots are hail. Look at the difference between Michigan and Ohio. Michigan did not have any tornadoes in June. There were only 4 reports of severe criteria hail (1" in diameter or greater) and 37 reports of wind damage.
Ohio on the other hand had 16 tornadoes in June, 27 reports of large hail and a whopping 306 reports of wind damage. That's more than 8 times the wind damage reports in Michigan.
Many of the Ohio reports are from June 13 - when a derecho moved through a large portion of Ohio. That evening we had an 82.3 mph gust at the South Haven Lighthouse and a 98 mph wind gust at Fort Wayne, IN.
We have still only had one tornado in Michigan this year...the Gaylord tornado back on May 20.
Today (Fri.) there is a Marginal (or Low) Risk of a severe t-storm southeast of a line from South Bend IN to Lansing MI. This would include Battle Creek, Jackson, Coldwater and Hillsdale. The main threat would be very isolated strong wind and hail. SPC says: "...Missouri northeastward to near Detroit, Michigan have 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 40 knot range. This, along with steep low-level lapse rates of 7.0 to 8.0 C/km, could be enough for an isolated severe threat. Damaging wind gusts and hail will be possible with the stronger storms."
Wind damage was reported in Upper Michigan near Au Train, Granite Island, Harvey and L'Anse.
Here's severe hail reports from the U.P. Thursday, June 30th, 2022. There are pics. of the hail at the Marquette NWS facebook page. (comment section).
Weekend Forecast - Mostly sunny and dry Saturday...Slight chance of a shower/thundershower on Sunday...Chance of a shower or t-shower Monday (best chance in PM and it's only a "chance". Afternoon temperatures in the 80s - a touch cooler near Lake Michigan. Lake Michigan swim risk moderate today and low over the weekend.
ALSO: Multiple tornadoes in Saskatchewan. Hurricane coming into China. Nice Alabama sunrise this Fri. Very thin crescent moon. Sunset at Vancouver BC. There's a lighthouse in the middle of that giant wave. Ka-Boom! Pretty Upper Michigan sunset. Cape Cod sunrise. Record high temperatures in Alaska. Thursday's high temps. in AK: Eagle 83, Fairbanks 78, Barrow Airport 54, St. Paul Is. 45. Pretty rainbow. Pretty flowers and a castle.
With shifting winds and a cool front working through the area today, make sure to check the colors of the flags flying at Lake Michigan beaches today (Friday), and through the Fourth of July Holiday weekend
There is also a Beach Hazards Statement for beaches from Muskegon to the north, where winds and waves could create dangerous conditions. Pay careful attention to the colors of the flags flying at the beaches you visit - where you see the red flags, swimming is not recommended. Don't swim near or jump off the piers and breakwalls on windy days. There are also Small Craft Advisories.
Here's lightning Thursday AM from Drew Brummel.
The record high temp. for this Thursday is 99 set in 1931 - we won't get that warm. It still looks good for the Fourth of July weekend. There's a chance (not a sure thing) of a shower or thunderstorm Friday AM and Monday PM.
Mackinac Bridge in the fog Thursday AM
I got the kayak out for the first time this year. This is the boat launch at Crockery Lake - Ottawa Co. I saw jumping fish, turtles, two great blue herons. A deer ran across the road just ahead of me on the way back and I had to break to avoid a groundhog. Seven deer were in the field north of Grose Park. Lots of happy voices around the lake Thursday evening.
The heaviest rain Thursday AM was along I-96. I got 0.61" at my house and it was most welcome. 0.93" at Ada was the most in our area. Houghton Lake had just over an inch.
ALSO: Tornado on 6/23 near Bunker Hill KS - out here you can often see tornadoes far away because it's flat with very few trees and buildings to block the view.
Here's a satellite pic. of the Southwest U.S. and NW Mexico - you can see the Baja Peninsula. Sunny over most of California with clouds over the cooler water (sometimes called the "June gloom".
Tropical Storm Colin off the Carolina Coast was next to nothing and is an example of storms that are getting named now that never would have been named 20 years ago. We had had "Alex". That was a tropical storm June 5-6 that dropped very heavy rain (11" in MIami) in South Florida (when it technically was just a depression).
Hurricane Bonnie formed off the coast of Venezuela. "Bonnie" (yeah, "My Bonnie Lies Over the Ocean" - side note...Mitch Miller lived to be 99 years old). Bonnie survived the trip across Central America and redeveloped into a hurricane. It will move west well off the coast of Mexico and eventually dissipate.
Active Storms | Marine Forecasts 2-Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook | 5-Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
The system off the coast of Texas is likely to produce heavy and possible flooding as it comes ashore. in SE Texas:
The third system farther east has only a small chance of reaching hurricane strength.
This has been a very quiet hurricane year so far globally. The column on the far right is the ACE Index, a measure of the strength and number of tropical storms.hurricanes. The first number is the current ACE Index and the number in ( ) is the average ACE Index to date.
All basins are below average with the exception of the NE Pacific. Globally, the index is at 132.5, compared to the average-to-date of 204.3. That's just 65% of average. We anticipate that activity will ramp up later this summer and that the Atlantic sector will have above near to above average ACE. The northwest Pacific is likely to continue to have below average ACE due in part to the La Nina pattern we are currently in.
The map above is sea-surface water temperature anomaly (difference from average) on June 29. Blue areas show water that's cooler than average - yellow and orange areas indicate where the water is warmer than average. Note that the water off the East Coast of the U.S. and in the Gulf of Mexico is a little warmer than average.
Above is the Severe Weather Outlook Map from the Storm Prediction Center. They have a Slight Risk (level 2 - in yellow on the map) in Wisconsin and surrounding that, a Marginal Risk extending a bit into Lake Michigan. The main threats in Wisconsin are strong wind gusts and hail. Here in Lower Michigan we have the light green General Thunderstorm Risk for this (Tue.) PM/night.
There's also a Slight Risk of a Severe Thunderstorm in parts of Montana, with a Marginal Risk extending south into Yellowstone N.P. Isolated strong winds gusts would be the threat here.
Here's WOOD TV8 radar:
ALSO: Nice cloud-to-ground lightning in France. New York sunrise. Sunrays. Thin crescent moon rising in Australia. There's a beautiful place called "snowdonia". Tornado in Zeeland (the Netherlands). Close lightning strike!
The above pic. is from the Glacier National Park (Montana) facebook page. They write: "After evaluating Going to the Sun Road this week, park officials have determined the road will not fully open by the 4th of July holiday. Unprecedented winter snows and late spring snow storms slowed plowing progress on Going to the Sun Road this spring." So, looks like the could be plowing snow into at least the 2nd week of July.
The late season snows are not the only problem in Glacier. Significant rains have caused some flooding, making hiking on trails a bit more difficult. They write this Monday evening: "Though not as extensive as our neighbors at Yellowstone NP, Glacier is also experiencing impacts from recent flooding. Many hiking trails are still wet and muddy from the rain and high water. Avalanche Lake Trail is closed due to damage from flooding, and trail crews are working to reopen the trail.
Here's a pic. of sunset at South Haven Sunday evening. Sunday and Monday (today) we have the latest sunsets of the year. The time of sunset is 9:25 pm at the Ford Airport, 9:26 in downtown Grand Rapids and 9:29 pm at Muskegon. The latest sunset in the state is at Isle Royale National Park in Lake Superior. The official sunset time there is 9:59 pm (sunrise today on Isle Royale is at 5:58 pm - giving them 16 hours and one minute of daylight. Today (Mon. 6/27) Grand Rapids has 15 hours and 20 minutes of daylight.
Solar Noon in Grand Rapids is now at 1:45 pm. The reason it's not at noon is because we move the clock ahead one hour for Daylight Saving Time and because we live at the west edge of a time zone. The strongest rays of the sun occur from 1 pm to 2:30 pm.
The weather has been sunny, dry and warm this month. Over the last 12 days Grand Rapids has had 86% of possible sunshine. So far, the month of June in Grand Rapids has been 0.9° warmer than average, but the year 2022 has been 1.1° cooler than average. While we've had a nice sunny stretch of days, the year remains cloudier than average. Since Jan. 1, Grand Rapids has had 41% of possible sunshine, compared to an average of 46%. Four of the first five months of 2022 were cloudier than average, including a record cloudiest April (with only 30% sunshine).
This is the rain we got (or didn't get) Saturday evening/night...not much. West Olive and Fennville both had 0.12".
The dry pattern has reduced the flow on some area rivers. As of Sunday evening, the flow of water on the Grand River was 79% of average flow. Buck Creek in Grandville was down to a flow of 42% of average. Plaster Creek in SE Grand Rapids had a flow of just 36% of average.
Here's the latest rainfall forecast from the Weather Prediction Center. Much of S. Lower Michigan is forecast to get 1/10th to 1/4" of rain - not much. Rainfall amounts are expected to be higher in the U.P. and across NW Lower Michigan.
It stays wet in SW Florida. Fort Myers got another 2.92" of rain on Saturday. They're up to 11.35" for the month of June. Much of the East up into Quebec should see thunderstorm activity with some periods of heavier rain.
Thunderstorms will bring some heavy downpours to New Mexico and to a good portion of Colorado and Arizona. This should keep the fire danger down a bit and provide a bit of runoff to the Colorado River.
Tuesday PM/night there is a Marginal or Low Risk of a severe thunderstorm across much of Wisconsin. The light green over Lower Michigan means there is a chance of a thunderstorm, but severe weather is not expected.
Here's Northern Hemisphere snow and ice cover. Hudson Bay is about 50% open water now. As is usually the case, there is more ice on the south end of the bay than on the north end. Polar bears have been moving off the ice onto the land. Ships should be able to get into the bay in July to bring supplies to the towns around the bay. Great Slave Lake is open water, while Great Bear Lake is still ice-covered.
While much of the day was overcast, the sun broke through for a few hours at Utqiagvik, Alaska. A warm south wind sent their temperature up to 67° on Sunday (average high temperature is 45° right now). While there are pockets of open water, the Arctic Ocean along the north Alaska Coast is still mostly ice-covered.
Eagle was the warmest place in Alaska with a high of 84°. Fairbanks and Juneau each made 78°, while Anchorage had a wind off the cold water and a high of 62°.
The Beach Hazards Statement and Small Craft Advisory continues until 4 pm this Monday 6/27.
The National Weather Service has continued both a Beach Hazards Statement for certain beaches and a Small Craft Advisory into Tuesday for the nearshore waters of Lake Michigan from Grand Haven to the north. With a southwesterly wind, the beaches from Grand Haven to the north will have a high risk of rip currents, especially the beaches that are south of the southern-facing piers and breakwaters. South-southwesterly winds will increase to 15-25 knots (a knot is 1.15 mph) and waves could increase to 3-5 feet, creating dangerous conditions at the beaches. If you are heading to the lakeshore, stay out of the water and off the piers and breakwaters. Also, make sure to check out the colors of the flags that are flying at the beaches.