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Here’s the Lake Michigan MODIS satellite picture from Saturday PM. You can see where there was snow on the ground – along the lakeshore and south of a line from Zeeland to the Kalamazoo area. See how many inland lakes you can pick out (Gun, Gull, Fremont, the Hardy and Croton Ponds…the lakes in N. Michigan).
It was mostly sunny across Lake Huron. Lots of snow surrounding the lake…it shows up bright white where there are mostly farm fields. You see a darker color where there is mostly conifer forest, where the wind has knocked most of the snow off the trees.
Here’s the Lake Erie satellite picture. Lake Erie is the shallowest of the Great Lakes. You can see where the lake-effect snow was more prominent from the Cleveland area to the east.
Here’s the Lake Ontario satellite picture. Note the Finger Lakes, Lake Oneida, Lake Simcoe in Canada and the Niagara River, flowing north from Lake Erie into Lake Ontario.
Also: Grand Rapids recorded 78% sunshine on Saturday. It was the sunniest day since Oct. 23rd and the first day in November with more than 45% sunshine. The high temp. of 35 was 12 deg. below the avg. high of 47. The low of 22 was 11 deg. colder than the avg. low of 33. Nov. 1-16 in Gr. Rapids has been 10.6 deg. colder than average. 18 of the last 19 days have been colder than average. For Nov 1-15: Temps. way below normal (-10.8 at FWA & -10.9 at SBN). FWA 2nd coldest: avg temp in 125 years of 33.9 (coldest 33.1 1991). SBN 3rd coldest: avg temp of 33.2 (coldest 32.7 in 1951).
“Congrats” Chicago-ans, you just lived through the coldest first half of November in the past 148 years! The average temperature from Nov. 1-15 was 31.2°, with the previous record cold (since 1871) first half of the month in 1991 (average temp of 31.4°).
And…Savannah GA had 4.62″ of rain on Saturday. The warmest spots in the U.S. on Sat. were Camarillo and Dos Palmas CA with high temps. of 93 and the coldest spots were Saranac Lake NY and Mt. Washington NH with 9 below zero.
Western Hudson Bay freezing up. Fall colors in NYC. Polar Vortex update. Coast Guard rescues kayakers. Sunset – Gulf Shores. More: Sunset – Gulf Shores. Snow in Algeria. More snow in Algeria. Snow in Spain. Non-Severe Thunderstorms Possible in AZ and NM on Tuesday. Texas sundog. Fall Colors in TN. West Michigan sunset. The opposite of storm surge. Earthquake watch in Iceland. Venice flooding causes (plural). Add that when you build very heavy buildings on sandy/silt…they tend to slowly sink. Key West FL eeked out one more 80° day… making the 80+ streak 234 days. This is likely the end of this record stretch. Record cold in Maine.
Yesterday (Sat.) I drove to Kalamazoo for the Holiday Parade. Kalamazoo has a combined holiday parade (Thanksgiving, Christmas) earlier in November to have a better chance of getting good weather…and it was an awesome day! It was mostly sunny for the parade. At noon, Kalamazoo had a temperature of 33°, but with the sunshine and a wind at only 5 mph, it felt warmer than that.
Before I got to the parade, I witnessed a traffic accident. Driving south on US 131 near the Plainwell exit, the car two cars in front of me just veered off the road to the right, went down a hill…the car rolled 3 or 4 times (sending snow flying into the air). The car went over a fence and landed rightside-up.
The first thought I had was that it was a medical. Several cars stopped (including me). Someone quickly ran down the hill, while another called 911. The guy who got to the car first said there was one younger/middle aged driver, no passengers. He speculated that the driver had fallen asleep. He appeared to be mostly OK – maybe a concussion. The airbag(s) had deployed. I thought how great cars are now that someone can walk away from an accident like that without serious injury.
I also thought how this could have been much worse. Instead of veering right, the car could have veered left into oncoming traffic. Also, much of the highway had trees (that don’t move) on the side of the road. Here, the car ended up 30-40…maybe 50 yards from the road without hitting an immovable object. Lesson one is always use your seatbelt…and lesson two, make sure if you are too tired to drive…don’t drive.
WOOD TV was 74th in the parade, which started at 11 am. I usually figure about 40 seconds per entry, so I thought we wouldn’t start in the parade until around 11:50 am and that was about right. In the meantime, I like to move along the parade route and/or in the staging area and talk to people. I only had one person mention the blog, but at least a dozen congratulated me on my 45 years on TV in W. Michigan. I said “hi” to the people in the parade from WXMI and WWMT and several Kalamazoo radio stations. While Casey and Theresa
After the parade, I headed to our WOOD TV8 studio across the street from the NE corner of Bronson Park. We had milk and cookies for everybody – and Bill’s mustaches, too.
Mr. and Mrs. Santa Claus were right there in our studio to meet the kids.
Just outside the studio, we had two friendly reindeer for the kids to see.
I took this picture at the southeast corner of Bronson Park. Note all the leaves on the trees. Some trees hang onto their leaves longer than others (ornamental pears, willows, some oaks). This year there are still a few trees that are mostly green…or a dull gray-green or gray-brown. The leaves will eventually all fall off. When I got home from the parade, I raked up 3 bags of leaves from the backyard. The rest of the backyard either had snow or was too wet to bag.
Also, a good part of West Michigan (inc. Kalamazoo) still has ice on the sidewalks (and some driveways and lesser traveled roads where there is some shade. There are slippery spots. I saw one kid take a tumble on an icy sidewalk. Fortunately, he had on lots of “padding” and wasn’t hurt.
Clouds move in this Sunday AM and hang around for much of the week. It was nice to have the partly-to-mostly sunny day come on a Saturday.
The water levels of the Great Lakes remain very high, but still below record levels for November. The graphs below daily lake levels (blue) compared with last year’s levels (black) and last year’s annual average (dark red). The monthly averages are shown as a step plot through the daily averages. Plotted in the background are the coordinated (official) averages (green), record highs (cyan), and record lows (brown) per month as documented here along with additional water level data.
The water level of Lake Superior is down 4″ in the last month and up 1″ from one year ago. The level is still 13″ above the average November level, but 4″ below the record November level set in 1985.
The water level of Lake Michigan-Huron is unchanged in the last month and up 16″ from one year ago. The level is 35″ higher than the November long-term average, but 4″ below the record November level of 1986.
The water level of Lake Erie is down 2″ in the last month, but up 4″ in the lasts year. The level is 26″ higher than the November average level, but 7″ below the record level for November set in 1986.
The water level of Lake Ontario rose 2″ in the last month and is 17″ higher than one year ago. The level is 20″ higher than the November average level, but 5″ below the record November level set in 1945.
All the rivers that connect the Great Lakes have well above average flow and that will continue well into 2020 and probaby beyond. The St. Clair River at Port Huron has a flow of 277,000 cubic feet per second, compared to an average flow of 193,000 cfs for this time of year.
Most Great Lakes rivers have well above average flow. The Grand River in Grand Rapids (as of Sat. AM) has a flow of 6,160 cfs compared to an average flow of 2,340 cfs. The Kalamazoo River at Comstock has a flow of 1,130 cfs compared to an average flow of 756 cfs. The St. Joseph River at Niles has a flow of 4,760 cfs, about double the average flow of 2,420 cfs. The Saginaw River at Saginaw has a flow of 7,930 cfs – more than 3 times the average flow of 2,430 cfs. The Fox River at Appleton WI has a flow of 8,440 cfs compared to an average flow of 3,760 cfs.
GREAT LAKES NEWS – Diverting Great Lakes water to Colorado…IMHO – most of the time this is not a good idea…but considering how high the levels are now…and that the water just flows out to the ocean, there are times when a small diversion for a significant ROI might be worth considering. Beaver Island once had its own king. We’re not talking salmon here. Prehistoric sea scorpions in the Great Lakes. Lake Michigan’s Shipwreck Graveyard. Arctic air coming over relatively warm water produces “steam”. Here’s a pic. of the Mackinac Bridge surrounded by the steam (aka “Arctic sea smoke”). Lake Michigan shipwreck could be world’s ‘most intact wooden schooner’ ever found. Green Bay man remembers uncle, crewman on Edmund Fitzgerald. Annual ceremony remembers mariners lost on the Great Lakes. Asian carp DNA in the Chicago River.
Friday AM is the start of the firearm deer season in Michigan. The firearm season lasts until Nov. 30. There is a second archery season from Dec. 1 – Jan. 1 and a muzzleloading season from Dec. 6-15. (complete calendar at the link). Up top is the latest 8-14 day temperature outlook for Nov. 22-28. An overall cool pattern will continue for the next two weeks, though temperatures will be closer to average than they have been over the past 10 days. The average high temperature for Nov. 15 is 48° and by Nov. 30, the average high is down to 40°.
Sunrise in G.R. on Friday is at 7:38 am. Temperatures will range from the mid 20s inland to near 30 at Lake Michigan. The wind will be west-southwest at 5-15 mph, with the 15 mph at Lake Michigan and the 5 mph in the woods. Wind chills in the AM will around 18° – 24°. We do have some tracking snow (most years we don’t). Most of West Michigan has 2-5″ of snow on the ground.
Here’s how much snow there is on the ground this Friday. A few spots in Allegan and Van Buren Counties have a little more than 7″. The least snow appears to be around 1-2″ around Fremont and Big Rapids. Last year, Fremont wound up with the highest season snowfall in the area with over 90″.
Here’s the 3-day forecast through the weekend. We’ll be above freezing, up into the mid 30s Friday PM. Skies should be partly sunny both Friday and Saturday, then cloudy or mostly cloudy on Sunday. We should be dry Friday and Saturday with a chance of a light mix late Sunday into Sunday night (a little freezing rain/mist is possible then, which could produce a slick spot or two on the roads Sunday night/early Monday. Temperatures will be a touch cooler on Saturday (upper teens in the early morning) then back a little above freezing Sunday PM.
We had a cool, wet spring – now a cold and wet mid-late fall. In the last two weeks, only 5.5 days have been suitable for outdoor work. As of Nov. 10, corn harvested for grain was only 33%, compared to a 5-year average of 64%. The corn crop in MI is rated as 17% Excellent, 32% Good, 36% Fair, 14% Poor and 7% Very Poor.
Soybean harvest is doing a little better than corn, but still behind last year (when we had a wet fall) and behind the 5-year average.
Here’s a graph of crop progress in Michigan this year. As you can see, we’ve been below average in crop progress and condition compared to previous years.
This map shows the ranking of average temperature for October for each state. The contiguous U.S. had an average temperature of 52.7° and that was 1.8° cooler than average. It was the 21st coldest in the last 125 years and the coolest since 2009. It was the coldest October since 1895 in Idaho and a top ten coldest October in 14 other states. We were 0.8 deg. colder than average in G.R. in October. It was a top ten warmest October for 11 states, including the 2nd warmest October in Florida.
October was the 3rd wettest October in the last 30 years in the contiguous U.S., behind last year and 2009. It was the 8th wettest October in the last 125 years of record, with 145% of average precipitation. Topsoil moisture in Michigan is 59% surplus, 39% adequate, 2% short and 0% very short. It’s been a good year for Michigan apples – pick some up, they are big (ample rain), sweet and crisp this year.
The Winter Weather Advisory continues to 10 am on Thursday for Muskegon, Oceana and Mason Counties. This is for 1-4″ of new snow, along with slippery road conditions, which may impact the morning commute on Thursday. This is lake-enhanced snowfall and with a south-southwest wind. Areas northwest of Grand Rapids will see snow with areas southeast of Grand Rapids seeing a trace to an inch.
Remember that cold air coming over relatively warm water makes bigger waves than warm air coming over relatively cold water. Here’s G.R. radar:
and regional radar:
Go to: Most Recent Image
Grand Rapids has had at least a trace of snow on 11 of the last 15 days. G.R. officially is up to 6.8″ for the season and Muskegon is at 9.1″.
Here’s a link to the official winter forecast from Storm Team 8. Rather than just copy and paste the entire outlook…I’ll had come comments on a later thread. First check out the winter forecast at the link above.
Dozens of record low temperatures and record low high temperatures have been set east of the Rockies. Here’s a look at high temperatures Tuesday. All of these are record low maximum temperatures for the date. The previous record low maximums where…for G.R. 27° in 1920, for Muskegon 27° in 1940, for Lansing 29° in 1995 and for Kalamazoo 28° in 1920.
Low temp. records for today (Wed. the 13th) are 10° for Gr. Rapids in 1986, 11° for Muskegon in 1911, 1° for Lansing in 1872 and 12° for Kalamazoo in 1986.
Here’s Forecast High Temperatures for Grand Rapids for the next 5 Days. We’re going to have a south wind today and we’re still going to be only in the mid 20s. We finally get close to freezing on Thursday and a little above freezing Friday thru Sunday, but temperatures are still well below average for this time of year. Thru Tuesday, November is running 9.8° colder than average. In the last half-month, we’ve only had one day that has been warmer than average. In the last month, we’ve only had 5 days that have been warmer than average. In the last 25 days, we’ve only had 2 days without any rain or snow. We’ve also had at least a trace of snow on 8 of the first 12 days of November.
Here’s high temperatures across the U.S. on Tue. Look at the southern tip of Texas. Brownsville had an afternoon high temp. of 40°. Their average high temperature on Nov. 12 is 80°. The official high for the day there will be 48°, which was their temp. at 12:01 am. Brownsville had 4 hours of snow flurries! Dallas had a high of just 39° – their average high temp. for Nov. 12 is 68°. Other cold high temps: 47° at Baton Rouge, 37° at Rome GA…just 21° in St. Louis and 16° at both Champaign and Mattoon IL (you can see why a south wind isn’t going to warm us up much).
The cold front hadn’t reached central Florida, where the high temp. was 85° at Ft. Myers and Orlando and 88° at Miami. It was also warm in the desert SW – with highs of 90° at San Bernadino and Thermal CA. The highest temp. in the U.S. was 91° at 91° at the Cahuilla Ranger Station in SW CA.
30% of the contiguous U.S. had snow on the ground this (Tue.) morning. This is the 2nd highest extent on Nov. 12 in the 17 years of record that we have. First place was 31.5% in 2012. Third place is 27.5% last year (2018) and fourth place goes down to 19.4% in 2008. The least snow on the ground on any Nov. 12 in the last 17 years is 3.9% in 2004.
The average of the 17 years is 14.6%…so the snow extent in the U.S. today is more than double the average snow extent (of the last 17 years).
There is also an above average snow extent in Asia (Siberia) right now.
This is North American snow and ice cover for Tue. Nov. 12. Nearly all of Canada has snow on the ground (+90%) and there is ice forming on the west edge of Hudson Bay. Ice is forming on Lake Winnipeg and Great Slave Lake.
This is the N. Hemisphere snow anomaly map for Tue. 11/12 19 from the Rutgers Snow Lab. Blue color indicates areas that have snow on the ground and usually don’t on this date. Red color indicates areas that usually have snow on the ground on Nov. 12, but don’t today. Note there is more blue on the map than red, especially across the Northern U.S.
A rare event occurs this morning. The planet Mercury will cross the sun. This is called a transit. This only happens about 13 times a century, so it’s a rare event that! Mercury’s last transit was in 2016. The next won’t happen again until 2032.
You won’t be able to directly see it. First it’s cloudy. Second, you can’t look directly at the sun. Thirdly, Mercury would be too small to see without some amplification. The diameter of Mercury viewed from Earth is just 1/283rd the diameter of the sun. However, you can watch this transit on the internet – safely.
It starts at 7:35 am EST. It will take nearly six hours for Mercury to move across the sun.