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Gale Warnings will be in effect from 1 am Monday until 1 am Tuesday for wind gusts up to 40 mph (generally from the north) and waves up to 5-10 feet. There is also a Lakeshore Flood Warning for Berrien Co. Michigan and for La Porte, Porter and Lake Counties in NW Indiana from 1 am Monday until 5 pm on Tuesday. The National Weather Service says:
"High wave action, in combination with high lake levels, will result in significant erosion of beaches and dunes. Additionally, increases in water levels along river mouths, canals, and ports along Lake Michigan are expected. Low-lying property including parking lots, parks, paths, lawns, and structures along the immediate lakeshore will likely be inundated. Numerous road closures are possible." A Lakeshore Flood Advisory will be in effect for Cook Co., Illinois, including Chicago.
This is already one of the sunniest Novembers we've ever had in West Michigan and we're adding to that this weekend. Skies cleared Friday evening and we should stay clear this Saturday. Sunday should start mostly sunny with clouds arriving at some point during the afternoon.
This November is also 4.2 degrees warmer than average and 9.7 degrees warmer than November last year. We've had 6 days with high temperatures in the 70s and only 3 days with high temperatures in the (upper) 30s.
We've had 2.27" of precipitation and that's 1.03" below average. That's included just 0.4" of snow (at the Ford Airport in G.R.).
This pic. is from the GLERL camera at the Muskegon Channel. It's late Friday AM and if you look closely, there are 4 boats in the channel. Most or all of these boats are fishing.
Here's the Muskegon Channel at 5 pm Friday - look at all the people fishing off the breakwall. In fall you can get some great salmon runs on the Muskegon River.
While we had overcast skies on Friday, there was some sun on the other side of Lake Michigan This is Chicago at 5 pm after the sun had set. The water temperature at Holland State Park early Sat. AM was 44° and the water temp. at Reeds Lake in East G.R. was down to 42°.
While we've seen very little snow in West Michigan, there has already been a significant amount of snow in Upper Michigan. This is Mont Ripley near Houghton. Herman had 4" on the ground, Michigamme reported a 3" snow cover with 2" at Champion, Paulding and Painesdale. There was 1" on the ground at Marquette, Ironwood and Ishpeming. Marquette has had 31" of snow so far this fall and they had high temperatures in the low 30s on Friday.
This is an early estimate of snowfall Monday-Tuesday of next week from the N. Indiana NWS. Heavier amounts are possible to the east of this map - over toward Cleveland and NE Ohio and also at the South end of Lake Michigan (Lake and Porter Counties of Indiana). It will be colder with temps. mainly in the low-mid 30s and a stiff north wind. It'll feel like winter Monday and Tuesday. Here's Accu-Weather's snowfall map.
The above map shows estimated snowfall from the GFS model for the first two weeks of December...not much. Remember I said that this winter will likely start slow...quite a few La Nina years bring more snow in the 2nd half of winter than the 1st half. G.R. has had only 0.4" of snow so far this November.
This is the Severe Weather Outlook Map from the Storm Prediction Center for Sunday/Sunday night (11/29) This is a low or Marginal Risk of severe storms from Louisiana to the Carolinas.
We've had some crazy college football games, but one of the strangest was the famous "Snow Bowl" between Michigan and Ohio State on Nov. 25, 1950 (video of the game at the link). It was snowing so hard at times that the announcers couldn't see the field.
The temperature was +10F and there was a howling NE wind. Ohio State's kicker, Vic Janowicz said after the game "“It was like a nightmare. My hands were numb and blue. I had no feeling in them and I don’t know how I hung onto the ball. It was terrible. You knew what you wanted to do, but you couldn’t do it.” Another player remarked that his assignment was to go past the line of scrimmage to block a linebacker. When he moved past the line, it was snowing so hard he couldn't find the guy he was supposed to block.
Michigan won the game 9-3 despite not getting a first down, not completing a pass and punting the ball 24 times (for 723 yards). Ohio State had just 18 yards passing and a net 16 yards rushing, punting the ball 21 yards.
Ohio State blocked a Michigan punt and recovered at the Michigan 8 yard line. They ran 3 plays and lost yardage back to the 21 yard line. Then Vic Janowicz kicked a 37-yard field goal. Still today, some regard this as the best field goal ever kicked given these conditions.
Michigan scored their points by on blocked punts - falling on one in the end zone for their touchdown and getting a safety on another blocked punt.
Over 79,000 tickets were sold for the game, a full house. Of those roughly 50,000 came to the game. A few of them actually tried to light fires in the stands! Volunteers and the Boy Scouts tried to clear snow from the field during time outs.
The storm brought (by far) the coldest cold and the heaviest snow of any November storm. Colburn Creek W. VA. had 62" of total snowfall. Several other locations had over 50". The wind blew the snow in gigantic drifts. Grand Rapids, Michigan dipped to 10 below zero. Low temperatures of +5 in Birmingham AL and +3 in Atlanta GA were recorded.
After the storm, temperatures warmed to above average and the snow melted, resulting in some flooding.
Streaming on WOODTV.com: Bill, Terri, Ellen, Matt and Emily dig into the data to provide the winter weather outlook.
GRAND RAPIDS, Mich. (WOOD) — For the coming winter, odds favor temperatures to be slightly warmer than average, precipitation to be above average and snowfall to be near average.
First, a look back at last winter (2019-20). November was 5.5 degrees cooler than average (and nearly 10 degrees cooler than November has been so far this year).
After that, the trend reversed. December 2019 was 4 degrees warmer than average and January 2020 was a whopping 6.9 degrees warmer than average. February was only 0.7 degrees warmer than average.
The coldest temperature of the winter was +4 degrees on Feb. 14th and 15th.
Precipitation (rain and melted snow/sleet) was above average last winter (+2.53 inches for December through February in Grand Rapids), but season snowfall was below average (53.5 inches for Grand Rapids).
That was because a higher percentage of our precipitation fell as rain because temperatures were warmer. With the warmer air, there was a decided lack of lake-effect snow last winter.
Flint (53.7 inches) got more snow than Muskegon (51.9 inches) last winter! While snowfall was below average in West Michigan, it was above average in eastern Michigan (+6.3 inches in Flint and +1.2 inches in Detroit) and also above average in Upper Michigan, where it was cold enough for lake-effect snow (Marquette +5.3 inches and Sault Ste. Marie +13.6 inches). Tamarack in the U.P. recorded 301.1 inches for the winter of 2019-20.
The first place I look when making a seasonal forecast is the global sea surface water temperatures. The map above shows the sea surface temperature difference from average for Nov. 25, 2019.
Yellow, orange and red indicate areas where the water temperature is warmer than average. Blue indicates areas where the water temperature is cooler than average.
You can see a lot of yellow in the equatorial and Northern Hemisphere latitudes and cooler-than-average water around 30 degrees to 60 degrees south in the Southern Hemisphere. There was warmer-than-average water around most of North America and that was a significant factor in the relatively warm winter than much of the U.S. recorded.
Now let's look at current sea surface water temperature difference from average:
The dark blue along the equator west of South America stands out. That is called La Nina.
When the wind increases along the equator, it stirs up colder water from well below the surface and that's what's happened during the past year. When we have La Nina, there is often (not always) a rather dominant winter pattern:
We have an upper level ridge over the northern Pacific Ocean, a mean position of the polar jet stream from British Columbia across the Plains and Ohio Valley and northeast up into New England. This pattern favors dry weather across much of the Southern U.S.: lots of sunny, mild days for vacationers and snowbirds in Arizona, Texas and Florida. Wet weather is favored across the Pacific Northwest, Ohio Valley and parts of the southern Great Lakes.
Worth noting is that while the sea temperatures have cooled along the equator. The sea-surface temperatures around the U.S. and much of North America are similar to last winter, warmer than average.
Here's a comparison of snowfall during a La Nina Winter in Grand Rapids compared to an average of all years. This is interesting. There's slightly below average snowfall in December and January and then the snowplow drivers work overtime in February.
We also look at early snow cover in Canada and Siberia. Air coming off that snow cover will likely be cold.
You can see earlier snowfall across Upper Michigan, northwest Wisconsin and Minnesota has melted. Snow covers most all of Canada (north of 49 degrees latitude). Lake Winnipeg has frozen over and Hudson Bay is starting to freeze over.
Some of the polar bears are already on the ice of Hudson Bay, where they are being tracked.
There is a solid snow cover over Siberia that already extends south to cover much of Mongolia and Northern China. There is also snow cover over much of Finland, Sweden and Norway. When there is early and thick snow cover across Russia (Siberia), odds favor a colder and snowy winter in the Great Lakes.
Very cold air can on rare occasions come over over the North Pole and down into North America especially after Christmas). This is known as the "Siberian Express."
There are several computer models that try to forecast our weather out months in advance.
Above is the temperature forecast for December through February from the CFSv2 model. It's not too different from the typical La Nina pattern, with warmer than average temperatures over the South and East and cooler than average temperatures from Minnesota to Washington state.
Here's the CFSv2 model forecast for precipitation for December through February. It is also forecasting dry conditions across the southern U.S. from California to Carolina. It has wetter than average weather in the Pacific Northwest, Ohio Valley east to New England.
The official National Weather Service winter forecast is out and it looks very much like a typical La Nina Winter, warm in the South and cool from northwest Minnesota to Washington state.
The NWS precipitation forecast also follows a typical La Nina pattern: dry in the south and wet from the Great Lakes westward across the Northern U.S.
Back to La Nina. This is a monthly record of El Nino (numbers in red), La Nina (numbers in blue) and times when it's neutral (La Nada) in black. The latest number is for August through October at 0.9, but it will surely be a blue number for September though November and through the winter.
We can look back through the records to see when we had similar numbers. I want to focus on 2010-11. The La Nina was stronger at this time in 2010, but there are other similarities that I found.
In 2010, we had a very active hurricane season with 12 hurricanes and five major hurricanes and just like this year, a significant number of tropical storms impacted Central America.
That year, November was warmer (+3.4 degrees above average) and sunnier than average (40% sun versus an average of 28%) in Grand Rapids.
November 2010 had just 0.1 inches of snow in Grand Rapids, while here in 2020, we've had just 0.2 inches (very similar). In 2010, we had 11.4 inches of snow in December (below average), 21.2 inches in January (near average), then we got dumped on in February 2011.
Do you remember the Groundhog Day Blizzard of 2011? Grand Rapids had 17.2 imches of snow in two days (Feb. 1 and 2). We ended the month with 38.2 inches of snow, the second highest ever in Grand Rapids for any February.
We did have spring that year. It was 68 degrees on St. Patrick's Day and we had a nice 52% of possible sunshine in March.
Two more notes on 2010-2011. While 2010 was a very active hurricane year, the two years that followed were also active hurricane seasons in the Atlantic. The map above shows where tornadoes caused fatalities in (mainly the spring) of 2011. It was truly a deadly year, with 553 fatalities and 5,370 injuries. There were 6 EF-5 twisters and 17 EF-4 tornadoes. That compares to no EF-5 tornadoes and just 6 EF-4 twisters in 2020. The map above shows (by red dot) where the killer tornadoes were in 2011. Of special note was the Joplin MO EF5.
Back to topic. This is my guess (yes, it's an educated guess, but a guess nonetheless) for this winter:
Temperatures for December through February will be 1 degree warmer than average. Lake Michigan is still relatively warm and will sit at 39 degrees Farenheit for a week or more as the lake overturns. As colder air comes down, this should result in lots of cloud cover (I call it the "stratus quo") in early to mid-winter.
I think we'll have above average precipitation given the moderate strength of La Nina and the preferred storm track up the Ohio Valley.
The Forecast: Snowfall totals are slightly below average, with a nod to the warmer oceans around us, warmer Lake Michigan and a mild start to winter here in November. I've got 68 inches for Grand Rapids, 66 inches for Kalamazoo, 55 inches for Battle Creek, 79 inches for Muskegon and 85 inches for Holland.
Final note: According to WeatherRate, which rates the quality of our forecasts, this summer we had the most accurate seasonal forecasts we've ever had since they've been keeping records. We didn't get much severe weather (STILL no tornadoes in Lower Michigan this year! Woo-hoo!) and we had lots of sunny, warm days that were pretty easy to forecast.
As we enter winter with the storm track through the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes, that makes forecasting more difficult. This means a very slight miss in the storm track can mean a big difference in precipitation type and intensity. We'll have chances for mixed precipitation storms with narrow bands of freezing rain and we'll certainly have a chance of a bigger snowstorm this winter — hopefully not quite as impactful as the Groundhog Day Blizzard, but still a significant snow event (think area-wide snow day!). We'll also have a better chance of severe weather next spring — not just in Michigan, but throughout the U.S.
As always, thanks for reading my blog and for watching Storm Team 8.
The graphic above shows some snowfall totals as of Monday evening, Here's a few more: 3.5" Mt. Pleasant, 3.1" Suttons Bay, 3.0" Cadillac, 2.5" Holton, 2.0" at Howard City and Houghton Lake, 1.5" Alpine Twp., 1.2" at Oshtemo and Muskegon, 0.8" at East Grand Rapids.
This was the Winter Weather Advisory that was in effect until 4 am Wednesday for Oceana, Mason, Lake, Newaygo, Mecosta, Osceola, Clare and Isabella Counties for 2-4" of snow on the grassy areas. The Advisory worked out well.
The picture above shows snow Mon. PM north of Lucas, Iowa. This was the same system that has came through Lower Michigan Tuesday. One forecasting tool we have is to look at cameras where a storm is occurring and see what the weather and road conditions look like.
Here's the next few days - Showers end Wed. night, with the possibility of some fog. No real cold air by late November standards..back to the mid-upper 40s Weds. - Sat.
A band of rain and snow moved through parts of Lower Michigan Sunday - east of a line from Grand Haven to Mt. Pleasant. North of that line it was just cloudy and cool. Southeast of that line there was a mix of rain and snow and around 1-2" of snow fell from Kalamazoo east to Detroit. With surface temperatures above freezing and the ground being warm (the 2" soil temperature is 40 degrees), the snow pretty much melted as it fell, especially on main roads. Here's radar:
Here's current radar. Go to: Most Recent Image
This picture came across my facebook memories and I thought I'd write just to say "hi" to some old friends that used to comment on the blog topics (when we had comments). Michael V. who has his own weather website got some of us together 5 years ago down near Kalamazoo.
I don't know the exact day the blog started, but I know it goes back at least as far as December 2005. I was excited to be able to post at any time of the day or night and to post what I didn't have time to talk about on TV.
It's been really fun for me and I hope you've enjoyed coming here to the blog to spend a few minutes of your day. Thanks to all of you - and have an awesome Thanksgiving!
Great Lakes water levels remain high, but are down year-to-year.
The water level of Lake Superior is down 3" in the last month and down 4" in the last year. Each inch of water on Lake Superior represents 550 billion gallons, so a loss of 4" means a loss of 2.2 trillion gallons, lost through evaporation and out the St. Mary's River. Superior is still 9" above the average November level, but is 8" below the highest November level set in 1985.
The water level of Lake Michigan/Huron is down 1" in the last month and down 2" year-to-year. The lake is 31" higher than the average November level, but is now 7" lower than the highest November level reached in 1986.
The water level of Lake Erie is down 3" in the last month and down 2" in the last year. Erie is 24" higher than the November average and now 9" lower than the November record highest level set in 1986.
Lake Ontario is down 4" in the last month and down a whopping 17' in the last year. Ontario is only 2" higher than the November average level and is 2 feet below the highest November level, which occurred in 11945.
Lake St. Clair is down 4" in the last month and down 3" in the last year. The lake is 27" higher than the average November level, but 8" lower than the November record level set in 1986.
All the rivers that connect the Great Lakes continue to have above to much above average flow. The St. Marys (no apostrophe, I guess) River has a flow of 93,800 cubic feet per second, compared to an average flow of 76,000 cfs. The St. Clair River has a current flow of 263,000 cfs, compared to an average flow of 192,000 cfs. The Detroit River has a flow of 269,000, compared to an average flow of 196,000 cfs. (pic. from EGLE)
Inland rivers are a mix. The Grand River in Grand Rapids has a current flow of 2,930 cfs, compared to an average flow for Nov. 21 of 2,540 cfs. That's 115% of average flow. The Muskegon River at Croton has a flow of 1,600 cfs, very close to the average flow of 1,680 cfs. The Kalamazoo River at Comstock has a flow of 890 cfs, compared to an average flow of 799 cfs. The St. Joseph River has a flow of 1900 cfs, compared to an average flow of 2,620 cfs. The Saginaw River at Saginaw has a flow of 2,220 cfs, compared to an average flow of 2,180 cfs.
Over in Wisconsin, the Fox River at Green Bay has a flow of 14,300 cfs, compared to an average flow of 4,140 cfs. That's more than 3 times the average flow. Green Bay has had above average precipitation again this year. Since Sept. 1, Green Bay is +1.78" above average and since Jan. 1, Green Bay is 5.52" above average.
GREAT LAKES NEWS: Cool pics. of sand sculptures. Dog food made from Asian carp. Record number of waterspouts. Phenomenal fishing. Interactive map of Great Lakes lighthouses. The latest from Boatnerd. A long-term fix for high water levels? Another record year for shipment of wind turbines at the Port of Duluth. Friends group raising funds to place universal access kayak launch on Hamlin Lake in Ludington State Park. The wooden schooner Denis Sullivan may never sail again. Woolly adulgid invasion. Emergency coastal stabilization project. With erosion a concern - MDOT is keeping an eye on M-116. Overall tonnage across the Great Lakes-St. Lawrence Seaway System is down 7.9 percent compared to this time last year. High water levels and wave events increase safety hazards on Great Lakes. As Great Lakes pummel Michigan, beach towns rush to set development rules. A record-breaking number of rescue missions this year. Three drownings in Lake Michigan this past summer and more than a dozen water rescues has prompted City Council members in South Haven, Michigan, to form a committee to examine whether changes need to be made to the current beach and water safety plan. What lies beneath the water in the Milwaukee harbor? Shipwreck discovered in Lake Ontario. Sunk in 1886. Eagle Tower nearly complete. Steelhead fishin' in November. There is an abandoned German cargo boat shipwrecked in Lake Michigan. Huge waves. 48 acres of nature along Lake Michigan will soon be open to the public. Trout stocking by helicopter. Coast Guard offers winter advice. Migrating birds crash into skyscrapers.
The map above shows the hurricane/tropical storm/tropical depression paths of the 2020 Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean Season. The hurricane season official ends November 30. Hopefully, we're done here on 11/20.
This satellite picture shows five simultaneous tropical cyclones active in the Atlantic on September 14, 2020: Sally (left), Paulette (center left), Rene (center right), Teddy (bottom right), and Vicky (far right). The waves that would later spawn Beta and Wilfred are respectively located to the left of Sally and to the bottom-right of Vicky, and the extratropical cyclone that would later become Alpha is visible north of Rene.
The 2020 Atlantic hurricane season has been the most active Atlantic hurricane season on record, featuring tropical cyclone formation at a record-breaking rate. This is regarding the number of named storms. There have been a total of 30 named storms, 13 hurricanes, and 6 major hurricanes. It is also the second tropical cyclone season to feature the Greek letter storm naming system, after we went through the list of hurricane names. The other season to go into the Greek alphabet was 2005 season.
Of the 30 named storms, 12 made landfall in the contiguous United States, breaking the record of nine set in 1916. This season featured six U.S. landfalling hurricanes, tying with 1886 and 1985 for the most in one season. The season has had five Category 4 hurricanes – the highest number recorded in a single season in the Atlantic basin and the last such occurrence since 2005. The season was also the fifth consecutive season in which at least one Category 5 hurricane formed. During the season, 27 tropical storms have broken the record for the earliest formation by storm number. This season also featured 10 tropical cyclones that have underwent rapid intensification, tying it with 1995. This unprecedented activity has been fueled by an ongoing La Niña.
Here's a look at current tropical activity in the Atlantic, the Eastern Pacific, the Central Pacific and the Western Pacific:
Active Storms | Marine Forecasts 2-Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook | 5-Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
|Atlantic - Caribbean Sea - Gulf of Mexico|
Active Storms | Marine Forecasts 2-Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook | 5-Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
Active Storms 2-Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook | 5-Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
This above table shows a summary of hurricane activity this year by Ocean area. In each box, you'll see the number for this year and the average in ( ). The first line is the North Atlantic, which includes the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea. We had a record 30 named storms (including a couple that would not have received names 25 years ago) compared to an average of 11.6. Thirteen of those 30 storms became hurricanes (winds up to 74 mph and higher), compared to an average of 6.2. Six of the hurricanes became major hurricane (Category 3 or higher), compared to an average of 2.7.
The column on the far right is interesting. It shows the ACE Index compared to the average ACE Index. The ACE Index is a measure of the intensity and longevity of tropical storms. In the Atlantic, the ACE Index this season stands at 179.8, compared to an average seasonal ACE Index of 102.3.
The distribution of hurricanes this year is related to the moderate La Nina going on this year:
The map above shows sea surface water temperature compared to average. Blue is where the water is cooler than average and yellow/orange/red is where the water is warmer than average. The La Nina stands out, with colder than average water in the Equatorial Pacific. Note the warmer than average water over much of the rest of the Earth - including the Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean.
What's interesting is that even though this was a record for the number of tropical storms in the Atlantic to be given names...it wasn't even in the top ten years for ACE Index. That's list is led by 1933, then the Katrina/Rita/Wilma year of 2005. Third place goes to 1893.
Back to the table above. Look at the ACE Index for the other Ocean Areas. While the Atlantic was very busy this hurricane season...the other tracked areas had low numbers of tropical storm activity compared to average. The Eastern Pacific had an ACE Index this season of 76.5 compared to an average of 131.3 and the Western Pacific had an ACE Index of 146.5 compared to an average of 271.8 (near a record low).
I can't rule out another tropical storm or hurricane in the last weeks of 2020. Hopefully, it will stay quiet until next year.
So far, this November is running 5.0° warmer than average in Grand Rapids. November 2019 was 5.5° colder than average. So, this month is running 10.5° warmer than November 2019. Last year, the warmest temperature in November was 54° - this November we've had 6 days with high temperatures in the 70s, 3 days with high temperatures in the 60s and 6 more days with high temperatures in the 50s.
This has also been a very sunny month - through Thursday 11/21 - we've had 60% of sunshine. We certainly could set a record for sunniest November ever. Earlier, we set a record for sunniest June with 82%. An average November brings 28% sunshine. Precipitation has totaled 1.71", which is 0.93" below average. We've had 32.36" of precipitation so far this year, compared to 45.92" through Nov. 21 last year. The lower precipitation has brought the water level of Lake Michigan down 2 inches from one year ago.
This November we've had only 0.2" of snow (and that was on Nov. 1st). Last year we had 6.5" of snow in Grand Rapids in November.
The weekend was unusually calm. The average wind speed in G.R. was 2.2 mph on Saturday. The last time Grand Rapids had a day that calm was March 1, 2019. The average wind speed on Saturday at Muskegon and Holland was 2.9 mph and it was 3.1 mph at Lansing and Kalamazoo.
The warm weather has extended the golf season and brought quite a few fishers out to the Lake Michigan piers. The picture above is the Muskegon Channel Thursday evening. It's hard to see, but there are quite a few people fishing off the pier (breakwater) on the right side of the picture.
Strong winds, with gusts of 40-50 mph were reported across much of Michigan from Wednesday night into Thursday evening. A Wind Advisory was issued West Michigan. There was also a Lakeshore Flood Advisory from Muskegon Co. to Leelanau County and Gale Warnings for Lake Michigan. A High Wind Warning was also issued for the Mackinac Bridge.
Up top, you can see some of the peak wind gusts on Thursday. Here's a few more peak gusts: 52 mph Keweenaw Point, 51 mph Grand Marais, 48 mph Copper Harbor, 46 mph Muskegon, Shelby, 45 mph Ludington, 43 mph Kalamazoo, Whitehall, 37 mph Battle Creek.
At the Ludington Buoy, the peak wave height was 10.2 feet. At the north mid-Lake Michigan Buoy the peak wave height was 15.7 feet early Thursday morning.
High temperatures were in the mid 60s from Grand Rapids and Alma to the south on Thursday. It was a touch cooler near Lake Michigan and north of Kent Co., where the south-southwest wind was coming off the lake. At the Muskegon Beach, the high temperature was 52° and the peak wind gust was 45 mph.
The mild pattern continues on Friday. Dry and a little cooler on Saturday with increasing clouds...rain and snow possible on Sunday (if all snow, a couple of inches on the grass isn't impossible). Mostly dry Monday and Tuesday...then rain, possibly changing to snow on Wednesday. Dry Thanksgiving Day and Black Friday (the big shopping day - at least traditionally).