Indicators

• GMI: 4/6
• GMI-2: 3/9
• T2108: 44%

I will post again this weekend.  Best for me to stay out now until this volatility settles down. I am a chicken.

Indicators

• GMI: 6/6
• GMI-2: 5/9
• T2108: 43%

The GMI remains GREEN at 6.

Indicators

• GMI: 5/6
• GMI-2: 7/9
• T2108: 49%

The media pundits who say that the markets now look like the 2002 or 2008 tops don’t understand technical analysis. Outside of the one day in October, 1987 when there was a 20% drop, significant market tops take time to develop. Yesterday’s post showed the 2000 market top and the contrasting current benign weekly chart pattern for QQQ. This weekly chart shows why I exited before the 2008 decline. When the gray line, showing weekly closes, declines below the 30 week average, I get defensive. When the 30 week average actually turns down, I exit completely. (If you understand moving averages, you understand that when the 30 week average declines it means the latest week’s value being included must be less than the 31st average back being dropped. That is a big drop.) After a major market decline, I reenter when the index is closing back above the 30 week average and the average has turned up. It saved me a lot of $$$. If you like posts like this, please give me a like.

Indicators

• GMI: 5/6
• GMI-2: 7/9
• T2108: 44%

This signal helped me to get out at the beginning of of all major declines since 2000. Here are the 2000 top and today’s chart. Gray line is weekly price closes. Thank you Stan Weinstein for teaching me stage analysis.

I got defensive in April 2025 until the 30 week resumed its rise. Compare these two charts. See a top?

Indicators

• GMI: 5/6
• GMI-2: 7/9
• T2108: 46%

One can design steups for trading based on the 5 day EMA. The 5 day EMA> 21 day EMA > 30 day SMA and ? Look at this chart and create your rules. I may look for bounces up off of the rising 5DEMA. See these daily charts of  QQQ and DELL.

The GMI remains GREEN and is  at 5 (of 6).

Indicators

• GMI: 5/6
• GMI-2: 5/9
• T2108: 48%

Theses 15 stocks traded at an ATH (all-time high) on Friday. Five had a GLB last week:  NVTS, NXPI, GFS, ALAB, SKYT. Check them out and draw in their green lines according to the rules I specified at my recent presentation to the MoneyShow. Any that CLOSE below their green line, I would consider to be a failed GLB.

The GMI remains relatively strong, for now.

Indicators

• GMI: 6/6
• GMI-2: 5/9
• T2108: 46%

Indicators

• GMI: 5/6
• GMI-2: 4/9
• T2108: 39%

See high volume GLB for PBA , daily and monthly charts. PBA is tracking its 5 day EMA and must not close below its Green line @48.89. Still, buying a GLB in a market with few stocks hitting ATHs is more risky. The GMI-2=4 is also suggesting short term weakness.

Indicators

• GMI: 5/6
• GMI-2: 6/9
• T2108: 40%

While the GMI=5 and GREEN, I am very worried about the market internals. There have been 3 days last week with 100 or more US stocks at new yearly lows, a huge departure from recent times. Theses 3 were the only such days since April 1!  Before that the next day with 100 or more lows was March 20, with 153. I have found that when the market indexes are climbing to new highs and the new lows are also climbing, the rally is suspect. And now look at interest rates on the 20+ year US bonds. TLT is now in a BWR daily down trend and swooned on high volume last Friday. When bonds fall the interest rates rise. To understand this inverse relationship, think of it as being like a stock paying a dividend. When the price of the stock falls the yield which is a percentage of the price rises. For example, X pays $5 annually and is selling at $100, yield= 5/100 or 5%. If the price falls to $50, then the yield rises to = 5/50 or 10%. Most bonds pay a fixed dividend so that as their price declines the yield rises and visa versa. TLT dropped to 83.33 on Friday.

On Wednesday, NVDA reports earnings.There will be a lot of volatility. I will reduce risk on everything by Tuesday’s close. I need to protect my recent gains.

The GMI table shows that T2108 has declined to 39.72. That means that only 40% of NYSE stocks closed Friday above their 40 day averages, a major sign of general weakness.

The GMI table appears below.

Indicators

• GMI: 5/6
• GMI-2: 7/9
• T2108: 51%