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    <title>Through The Sandglass</title>
    
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    <updated>2009-12-16T15:32:33+00:00</updated>
    <subtitle>Musings and news on the extraordinary stories sand has to tell of our planet and daily lives</subtitle>
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        <title>Reports from the Solway Firth (2): Guest Writer and a Submerged Forest</title>
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        <published>2009-12-16T15:32:33+00:00</published>
        <updated>2009-12-16T15:32:33+00:00</updated>
        <summary>My kind hosts for the Café Scientifique event were Ann Lackie and her husband, John. They had set up the group originally and are to be commended for their devotion and the enthusiasm of the community that they have established....</summary>
        <author>
            <name>Michael Welland</name>
        </author>
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<content type="xhtml" xml:lang="en-US" xml:base="http://throughthesandglass.typepad.com/through_the_sandglass/"><div xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml"><p><a href="http://throughthesandglass.typepad.com/.a/6a01053614d678970c0120a757fd76970b-pi"><img alt="Trees 1" border="0" class="asset asset-image at-xid-6a01053614d678970c0120a757fd76970b " src="http://throughthesandglass.typepad.com/.a/6a01053614d678970c0120a757fd76970b-800wi" style="width: 547px; height: 286px; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; display: block;" title="Trees 1" /></a>  </p><p>My kind hosts for the Café Scientifique event were Ann Lackie and her 
husband, John. They had set up the group originally and are to be commended for 
their devotion and the enthusiasm of the community that they have established. 
Ann (and the adolescent dog, Meg) were my companions for that exhilarating 
morning walk on the beach; the storms had scoured the sand away from an 
extraordinary sight - the submerged forest of the post-glacial Solway Firth. Ann 
is, amongst her many talents, a writer (see the end of this post), and a few 
years ago, under her <em>alter ego, </em>Ann Lingard, she had published an 
article on the forest for <em>Cumbria Life </em>magazine. It is with great 
pleasure that I can re-publish that piece here.</p>
<div style="text-align: center;"><blockquote>
<p><strong>“NOW YOU SEE IT, NOW YOU DON’T”:</strong>
</p><p><strong>THE SOLWAY’S SUBMERGED FOREST</strong></p></blockquote></div>
<div style="text-align: center;"><blockquote>
<p><strong>Ann Lingard</strong></p></blockquote></div>
<p>Leave your car at Beckfoot in the carpark amongst the dunes and walk down the 
track to the new wooden walkway onto the beach: stand there, on the pebbles, 
looking across the waters of the Firth towards the granite bulk of Criffel. If 
you are lucky, you may see low dark ‘cliffs’ on the shore, about 100 metres 
along your Criffel sight-line – a half-metre high, the patches of black are like 
shadows on the sharp edges of channels in the sand. Now walk down towards them, 
and the shadows resolve themselves into banks of peat. Poke them with your toe 
and feel how dense and sodden they are, smoothed by the friction of waves and 
sand. Walk on them and feel their sponginess. And gradually you’ll become aware 
that the dark organic mass is not only peat, but contains a horizontal 
tree-trunk, or even a stump that radiates roots. Wander around and you will find 
trunks and branches, single and entangled, embedded in the peat and sand; and 
erect stumps, 20-30 cms high, their tops flattened as though cut by a chainsaw. 
The wood is still fibrous, soft and dark; you can crumble it and tease it apart, 
as though it were any rotting log in a woodland. But the difference is that this 
woodland thrived about 8000 years ago.
</p><p>However, the Solway’s tides and sands are capricious, and there will be many 
occasions when you go down to the shore and can find no sign of the ancient, 
submerged forest. One person I spoke to, who regularly surveys the Upper 
Solway’s shores, had never seen or even heard of the forest, and Brian Blake, 
whose excellent book <em>The Solway Firth</em> (published in 1955 and now, sadly, 
out of print) is illustrated by photographs taken by J. Allen Cash, notes that 
“Mr Cash went to Beckfoot ... the submerged forest was not visible and I regret 
to say the residents he inquired from had not even heard of it.” Fortunately for 
us, Val Corbett had no such problems as her beautiful pictures show.
</p><p>Norman Hammond, of Solway Shark Watch, who also leads guided walks along the 
shore, told me that, “The best time to see the forests will link in with extreme 
high water springs and a few days with a severe gale-force blow from the 
North-West or better still the North-East. The North-East severe gale will move 
the south shore sand away on a massive scale and reveal  the forests - and 
usually a host of last war remains as well. It’s a case of dropping everything 
and getting down to the shore when conditions are okay.”
</p><p>Well, I’m always happy to get down to the shore, even when conditions are not 
okay, and I have twice found the forest on Allonby Bay just South of the 
village, and once off North Lodge between Allonby and Dubmill Point. In the 
latter case, as at Beckfoot, there was no need to wait for the low Spring Tides 
– the forest was visible on the mid-shore, briefly exposed by the fierce 
northerly gales. </p><p><a href="http://throughthesandglass.typepad.com/.a/6a01053614d678970c0128765af81e970c-pi"><img alt="Trees 2" border="0" class="asset asset-image at-xid-6a01053614d678970c0128765af81e970c " src="http://throughthesandglass.typepad.com/.a/6a01053614d678970c0128765af81e970c-800wi" style="width: 546px; height: 409px; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; display: block;" title="Trees 2" /></a> <br /> So how did a forest come to lie underneath the Firth? The obvious answer is 
“because the sea-level rose”, but of course the Solway has its own particular 
complicated version of events, which is explained beautifully simply at the 
Solway Discovery Centre at Silloth. The Centre is in the coverted red sandstone 
school, and the offices of the “Solway Area of Outstanding Natural Beauty” are 
at one end of the building in the former Headmaster’s House. Brian Irving, 
Manager of the Solway AONB, designed the exhibition and is almost evangelical in 
his enthusiasm for everything to do with the Solway. Our discussion ranges from 
topic to topic, with frequent interruptions to ferret through books, and to 
check the maps of the coast and the channels and the other nature reserves that 
are pinned to the walls. We also go through to the Centre to look at the models 
that Brian has commissioned to explain the protracted contest between the sea 
and the land.
</p><p>During the last Ice Age, one huge glacier swept south and east to the Tyne 
from Scotland, meeting another glacier that ground its way North and West from 
the ‘Lake District’; as these melted, a large lake of glacial meltwater formed 
in the area bounded by the Scottish lowlands, the Pennines and the Fells. Then, 
as the ice retreated, so the shores of the lake were gradually colonised by 
plants and animals. What went on here was a reflection of everything else that 
was going on at that time in Britain, Brian tells me. “There was a wave of plant 
colonisation spreading North, a ‘tundra front’ moving North, with dwarf plants – 
dwarf willow and dwarf birch. The standard ecological colonisation.” I think 
about the tundra vegetation that I saw in Greenland a couple of years ago - 
juniper, and low flattened willow, dwarf birch and blaeberry blazing red and 
orange in the autumn, clinging to the sparse soil that was only inches above the 
permafrost - and try to imagine it spreading across from Silloth to Whitehaven 
and Dumfries. A fitting link with the Greenland Pinkfeet geese that now migrate 
here in the Winter.
</p><p>Here on the Solway, around 8000 years ago, the air and soil started to grow 
warmer, and wind-blown tree seeds were able to survive and germinate. According 
to Brian, a pine forest gradually spread across our landscape, obliterating the 
tundra vegetation and lasting for a couple of thousand years. Mammoth, bison, 
giant deer and sabre-toothed cat grazed or hunted amongst the trees and on the 
grassland. Perhaps the landscape looked like that around Victoria Bridge just 
South of Rannoch Moor, where remnants of the ancient Caledonian pine forest 
still hang on? The forest there is sparse, the remaining trees scattered thinly 
amongst the rock and heather and pale tough grass, and beneath them lies an 
older forest, its ancient and bleached trunks and branches exposed where the 
peat has been cut to make a ditch. The “Solway” pines, though, began to 
disappear about 7000 years ago, succeeded by deciduous oak and alder and hazel. 
This new forest was low and dense with a thick understorey, Brian says: “You’d 
have found it almost impossible to walk through.” But perhaps you would not have 
wanted to, in any case, because this was a time when wild pigs were common. The 
forest would have been full of bird-song, you might have caught sight of elk or 
deer grazing, or even the now-extinct Auroch, <em>Bos primigenus</em>, a large 
‘wild cow’.
</p><p>We think of geological change in terms of blocks of time: 9000 years BP, 7000 
years BP. But of course the process of change is gradual, and during this period 
the glaciers, here and elsewhere on Earth, were continuing to melt and pour 
their waters into the sea. The sea-level rose gradually and inexorably. It crept 
higher on the southern shore of the huge forested “Solway” basin, and the salt 
water oozed amongst the trees. Salt crystals blocked the water-channels within 
the tree-trunks so that the branches died of dehydration. “It was like beaver 
damage,” according to Brian Irving. “The twigs then the branches die and fall 
off, and you’re left with the spikes of stumps sticking up in the water.” Once 
the sea had made an entry it washed in further and invaded the immense 
freshwater lake and so the Solway estuary was born and broadened, fed by rivers 
of glacial meltwater, and flushed twice daily by the tide. The forest was 
drowned beneath the Firth, and should have been destroyed and lost forever. In 
theory, we should not even know it had been there.
</p><p>The glaciers were melting. Imagine those huge masses of ice and boulders, 
weighing down and compressing the land; as they retreat, the pressure on the 
underlying land is released and the land rebounds and rises. This is what 
happened in the Solway basin, twice. The sea flooded in and drowned the land, 
but the land then rose; the still-rising sea encroached again but yet again the 
land rose. The evidence is there in the two “raised beaches” – the road from 
Allonby to Mawbray runs along the “Twenty-five Foot” or “Neanderthal” raised 
beach. But even this story is probably too simple. Frank Mawby of English Nature 
told me, “There would have been little islands at high water, and some quite 
dramatic drops in sea-level too. If you look at the marshes today, you can see 
little bits of raised beach all over the place.” In some places growing trees 
would have been overwhelmed by peat rather than by the sea. And Dennis Dickins, 
who runs Cumbria Environmental and Geological Services at Watch Hill, stressed 
the fluctuating climate and conditions: “There’d be a wet period when the 
woodland would retreat, then this would be followed by advantageous conditions 
for a couple of hundred years, so you get the trees re-invading. There was 
constant change.”
</p><p>As for the drowned forest, each time the land rebounded some of the forest 
was lifted too. And with <a href="http://throughthesandglass.typepad.com/.a/6a01053614d678970c0128765afb54970c-pi" style="float: left;"><img alt="Trees AL" border="0" class="asset asset-image at-xid-6a01053614d678970c0128765afb54970c " src="http://throughthesandglass.typepad.com/.a/6a01053614d678970c0128765afb54970c-800wi" style="margin: 0pt 5px 5px 0pt; width: 353px; height: 256px;" title="Trees AL" /></a> regard to that wet period, never complain that “it 
always rains in Cumbria”! About 7000 years ago, in the Atlantic Period of the 
Holocene, the climate was especially wet, the hills were almost permanently 
hidden in cloud and the rain poured down, day after day. Plants struggled to 
survive in the water-logged ground. These were perfect conditions for sphagnum 
moss to grow and accumulate water like a sponge. Reeds flourished but most of 
the other vegetation died and decayed and became compressed to form peat; the 
peat spread, blanketing the valley floors and creeping up the hillsides, burying 
the remains of the forest. On the raised beaches, the peaty “raised mires” 
formed. Hundreds of years passed, the mires or “Mosses” dried out, sedges grew, 
the moorland was colonised by woodland carr, silver birch and heather. The 
drowned forest was hidden deep down beneath the layers of peat and vegetation.
</p><p>Peat is cold, oxygen-depleted, acidic, a good preservative. It preserved the 
“bog bodies” of Lindow, Tollund and Grauballe Man. Lindow Man (actually, only 
his upper half) was discovered in a Cheshire bog in 1984 and was probably a 
victim of a ritual sacrifice by ancient Celts. He died a three-fold death, 
finally being cast face-down into a peat-bog on Lindow Moss, a symbolic 
drowning. The two Danish peat-cutters who found Tollund Man in 1950 thought they 
had found the victim of a recent murder, his face was so “fresh” and 
well-preserved. This is characteristic of bog-bodies, their skin is “tanned” (a 
chemical process similar to turning hide into leather) and their internal organs 
and skeletal framework are thus often remarkably intact. Grauballe Man was found 
in a Danish bog in 1952, and is 2000 years old. Recently his body was analysed 
using computerised tomography (CT) scanning, a non-destructive technique by 
which X-rays generate 3D images. The computer is programmed to recognise 
different tissues according to their different densities in living patients, so 
it was a surprise to the researchers to find that the density corresponding to 
“skeleton” was absent from Grauballe man. The acidity of the peat had dissolved 
the calcium in the bones and tooth enamel, and the demineralised skeleton was 
more like rubber than bone. Even more surprising was the discovery that 
Grauballe Man had undergone some posthumous cosmetic surgery: his chubby cheeks 
had been padded out with plasticine by the museum’s curators in the 1950s!
</p><p>Are there “bog bodies” buried in the Solway peats? Who knows? There were 
certainly humans living here 2000 years ago, but it is unlikely that humans 
hunted amongst the forests a few thousand years earlier. When I asked Frank if 
there were any “bog bodies” in the Mosses, he laughed and said, “No. But there 
was a cow found in Solway Moss!” Unfortunately it wasn't accompanied by any ”bog 
butter”, the 2000-year-old parcels of butter and lard, packed in wooden boxes or 
animal skins, that have been found buried in Scottish and Irish bogs. (There is 
a very interesting story of the "soap woman", whose fatty tissues were converted 
after death  ... but no, that takes us too far from the Solway.)
</p><p>Returning to the Solway, Brian Irving told me that very little biological 
research has been carried out on the submerged forest. “The conditions were 
acidic so you wouldn’t get survival of calcareous shells, so there’s no evidence 
of land snails. Our information is based on things which survive the acidity – 
mainly plant remnants, pollen ...” Apparently an attempt was made about 25 years 
ago to radiocarbon-date a fragment of wood from the forest that lies just South 
of St Bees’, but I have been told there was some problem with the sampling 
technique; “8000 years old” is the date that’s quoted.
</p><p>And I cannot pin down whether the submerged forest was oak or pine. Dennis 
Dickins thinks it was oak. Brian Irving thinks it was pine. Brian Blake writes 
in his book that “I was told that from some of the remains, and the <em>prone</em> 
trees are more than stumps, hazelnuts sometimes are found.” When I put the 
question to Frank Mawby, he said at once, “Oh – probably birch!” and then added, 
“I brought up a hazelnut once from seven metres of peat on Wedholme Flow.” And 
at Wedholme he has found a layer of marine sediment overlying the peat, further 
evidence of that dance between the sea and the land. I’m really surprised that 
opinion is so divided about the trees. Would there be any DNA remaining in 
preserved cells deep within the wood that would make the identification 
possible, or would it be too fragmented? Tollund Man’s brain is apparently 
sufficiently well-preserved, after 2500 years, to allow extraction of genetic 
material.
</p><p>A couple of weeks after finding the Beckfoot forest, I went down to the shore 
again. It was during the final weekend of February, when the Gaels and Celts 
were struggling through blizzards but Cumbrians were enjoying clear blue days 
and views of snow-dusted Fells. The Silly Bitch (our “failed” working-dog, the 
border collie) was, as usual, running her clockwise circles on the sand as we 
walked towards Dubmill, and a group of seals had apparently gathered for a 
meeting on the shore; except that the circle of bodies, heads raised, had been 
carved from banks of peat that had been tilted and tumbled together in a hollow, 
about 5-6 metres below the level of the road. Pieces of branch or root were 
exposed at the edges of the blocks and I was thrilled to find a football-sized 
lump of green slippery clay lay nearby – presumably the boulder clay above which 
the trees had grown, torn up from deep beneath the peat – but, as usual, there 
was nobody nearby with whom to share this exciting find! There was no way to 
tell whether the trees had been drowned by sea or by peat all those thousands of 
years ago, but now the whole thick organic mass had been finally overwhelmed by 
the Solway tides. The forest floor on which the Silly Bitch and I were standing 
extended inland, a layer of trees preserved deep beneath the fields and dunes 
and mire. Next time we go back to Allonby, the remains may have been buried yet 
again, beneath the sand and gravel on the shore.
</p><p>And incidentally, there is a bank of peat and wood on the Beckfoot shore that 
is riddled with tunnels from which the white shells of long-dead piddocks 
protrude. Piddocks are bivalve molluscs that normally burrow in rock; 
“ship-worms” are the bivalves that are supposed to burrow in wood. What on earth 
has been going on? The Solway’s submerged forests are certainly full of 
mysteries.
</p><p style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://throughthesandglass.typepad.com/.a/6a01053614d678970c0128765b0027970c-pi"><img alt="Trees 3" border="0" class="asset asset-image at-xid-6a01053614d678970c0128765b0027970c " src="http://throughthesandglass.typepad.com/.a/6a01053614d678970c0128765b0027970c-800wi" style="width: 545px; height: 315px; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; display: block;" title="Trees 3" /></a> <br />  
</p><p>[Solway AONB is based at the Discovery Centre, Silloth, where there is an 
excellent exhibition about the area’s geology, history and wildlife; the centre 
also runs guided walks along the shore. Tel: 016973 33055 <a href="http://www.solwaycoastaonb.org.uk">www.solwaycoastaonb.org.uk</a>]
</p><p>Ann is the author of several novels, the most recent of which is <em>The 
Embalmer's Book of Recipes -</em> I enjoyed it enormously and 
thoroughly recommend it. I posted a brief review on the <em><a href="http://www.goodreads.com/">Goodreads</a> </em>site:
</p><blockquote>
<p> <br /> <a href="http://throughthesandglass.typepad.com/.a/6a01053614d678970c0128765b01b0970c-pi" style="float: left;"><img alt="Embalmer's" border="0" class="asset asset-image at-xid-6a01053614d678970c0128765b01b0970c " src="http://throughthesandglass.typepad.com/.a/6a01053614d678970c0128765b01b0970c-800wi" style="margin: 0pt 5px 5px 0pt; width: 116px; height: 180px;" title="Embalmer's" /></a> I was surprised - read because I know the author, and a book that I would not 
necessarily select off a book store shelf. But I found it compelling, 
fascinating - and informative, not to mention beautifully written. A story of 
three very different women, set in the English Lake District farming and 
academic communities, Lingard weaves a seemingly unlikely tale of relationships, 
handicaps (physical and emotional), aspirations, agricultural challenge, and the 
arcane history of embalming and eugenics, into a haunting narrative. Humorous 
and human, full of insights - a thoroughly engaging read.</p></blockquote>
<p>Visit Ann's website at <a href="http://www.annlingard.com/" title="http://www.annlingard.com/">http://www.annlingard.com/</a></p><xhtml:img xmlns:xhtml="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml" src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/typepad/NMnB/~4/m9U09jUDRYE" height="1" width="1" /></div></content>


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    <entry>
        <title>Reports from the Solway Firth (1): beauty and violence</title>
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        <id>tag:typepad.com,2003:post-6a01053614d678970c0120a74b23e4970b</id>
        <published>2009-12-13T15:58:34+00:00</published>
        <updated>2009-12-14T10:46:00+00:00</updated>
        <summary>In many ways, I can't think of a better way to start the day. Last Wednesday morning I had the pleasure of walking on the beach near Mawbray on the Solway Firth, the great estuary that marks the boundary between...</summary>
        <author>
            <name>Michael Welland</name>
        </author>
        <category scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category" term="Earth" />
        <category scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category" term="News" />
        <category scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category" term="Sand and us" />
        
        
<content type="xhtml" xml:lang="en-US" xml:base="http://throughthesandglass.typepad.com/through_the_sandglass/"><div xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml"><p style="text-align: center;"> <a href="http://throughthesandglass.typepad.com/.a/6a01053614d678970c0120a74b1e9f970b-pi"><img alt="Header" border="0" class="asset asset-image at-xid-6a01053614d678970c0120a74b1e9f970b " src="http://throughthesandglass.typepad.com/.a/6a01053614d678970c0120a74b1e9f970b-800wi" style="width: 548px; height: 293px; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; display: block;" title="Header" /></a> <br /> </p>
<p>In many ways, I can't think of a better way to start the day. Last Wednesday 
morning I had the pleasure of walking on the beach near Mawbray on the Solway 
Firth, the great estuary that marks the boundary between England and Scotland 
(Hadrian's Wall comes down to the sea at its mouth), overlooked by the hills of 
the Lake District and the Southern Uplands. Yes, it was windy and cold, but as 
the photo at the head of this post suggests, it's a place of extraordinary 
beauty, a landscape that invites reflection on its story, its testaments. For 
there is another side to this landscape, one of violence and power. </p>
<p>Why was I so far away from London that morning? To give a talk, that previous 
evening, a date long agreed on and by the kind invitation of the local <a href="http://www.cafescientifique.org/">Café Scientifique</a> group. The 
traditional location for the talks was a traditional brewery, which struck me as 
an ideal location, and I had been looking forward to the event for some time. 
The Jennings Brewery has been brewing fine ales since 1828, and since 1874 in 
the location shown in the photo below. </p>
<p style="text-align: center;"> <a href="http://throughthesandglass.typepad.com/.a/6a01053614d678970c0120a74b1f7e970b-pi"><img alt="Jennings" border="0" class="asset asset-image at-xid-6a01053614d678970c0120a74b1f7e970b " src="http://throughthesandglass.typepad.com/.a/6a01053614d678970c0120a74b1f7e970b-800wi" style="width: 532px; height: 400px; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; display: block;" title="Jennings" /></a> <br /> </p>
<p>A superb setting, under the walls of the old castle, whose well provides one 
of the key ingredients, and at the meeting of two rivers, the Cocker and, having 
flowed scenically from its origins in the heart of the Lake District, the 
Derwent. But it's the Cocker that gives its name to the confluence town where 
the brewery is located - Cockermouth. Yes, the town that just over two weeks 
earlier had suffered for its setting, a foot of rain in twenty-four hours 
causing the two rivers to change their mood and their courses, violently, 
devastatingly, flooding the town, beauty gone berserk. The Jennings Brewery was 
under five feet of water. </p>

<p><a href="http://throughthesandglass.typepad.com/.a/6a01053614d678970c0128764e29d7970c-pi"><img alt="Floods" border="0" class="asset asset-image at-xid-6a01053614d678970c0128764e29d7970c " src="http://throughthesandglass.typepad.com/.a/6a01053614d678970c0128764e29d7970c-800wi" style="width: 541px; height: 388px; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; display: block;" title="Floods" /></a> I contacted the organiser of the Café Scientifique, whom I had known for some 
time (and you will meet in the next report), most importantly to check on her 
situation, but also under the assumption that the event would have to be 
postponed - surely the local residents, enthusiastic as they might be for all 
things scientific, had other priorities? My friends were fine, on high ground in 
an outlying village and expressed a determination that an alternative venue 
would be found and the event would go ahead. Which it did - at a warmly 
hospitable café (I suppose strictly more appropriate than a "Brewery 
Scientifique") with mince pies and shortbread biscuits/cookies and copious red 
wine. The place was packed, most of the audience having arrived before I did, 
and they were fantastic. Human nature can be wonderful and uplifting. </p>
<p>So, since I had requested - weather permitting - a morning excursion to the 
coast, there I was on the beach, the timing perfect with sun and an outgoing 
tide, good company and an enthusiastic dog. But the evidence for violence was 
also apparent. The weather system and the deluge that had devastated Cockermouth and other valley towns had also hit the coast, where, even under 
normal circumstances, the tides and currents are immense. My companion, a 
regular observer of this landscape, described how the rows of rotted wooden fish trap
posts that we could see running out across the sand flats 
had barely been visible before. Huge volumes of sand scoured away and flushed 
violently up the coast. This process was evident from the dramatic series of 
large sand waves visible high on the beach, just below the eroding dunes (photos 
below, dog for scale), their shoreward boundary dramatically linear and all 
suggestive of high velocity water movement. </p><p style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://throughthesandglass.typepad.com/.a/6a01053614d678970c0120a74b2124970b-pi"><img alt="Waves2" border="0" class="asset asset-image at-xid-6a01053614d678970c0120a74b2124970b " src="http://throughthesandglass.typepad.com/.a/6a01053614d678970c0120a74b2124970b-800wi" style="width: 533px; height: 259px; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; display: block;" title="Waves2" /></a> <br /> </p>
<p style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://throughthesandglass.typepad.com/.a/6a01053614d678970c0128764e2ab7970c-pi"><img alt="Waves1" border="0" class="asset asset-image at-xid-6a01053614d678970c0128764e2ab7970c " src="http://throughthesandglass.typepad.com/.a/6a01053614d678970c0128764e2ab7970c-800wi" style="width: 534px; height: 218px; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; display: block;" title="Waves1" /></a> <br />  </p>
<p>My friend described how she had found a dead sheep on the beach, washed down 
the river and along the coast. And then, this reminder of nature's violence 
struck home with the memory of human tragedy. Down the river from Cockermouth is 
the village of Workington; there, at the height of the chaos, Police Constable 
Bill Barker was bravely directing motorists off a threatened bridge when the 
structure collapsed beneath him. His body was found on the beach just to the 
south of where I stood that morning, twelve miles from the remains of the 
bridge. </p>
<p>Tragedy and wholesale devastation as a result of flooding is nothing new to 
this region - Cockermouth has been hit before (but not on this scale), the local 
city of Carlisle last experienced major floods in 2005, and the entire area 
around the Solway Firth was flooded that night a few weeks ago, including large 
areas of southern Scotland. And historically this has always been the case - the 
following is a passage from Charles Lyell's classic <em>Principles of 
Geology,</em> first published in 1830:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>One of the most memorable floods of modern date, in our island, is that which 
visited part of the southern borders of Scotland, on the 24th of January, 1794, 
and which spread particular devastation over the country adjoining the Solway 
Firth. 
</p><p>We learn from the account of Captain Napier, that the heavy rains had swollen 
every stream which entered the Firth of Solway, so that the inundation not only 
carried away a great number of cattle and sheep, but many of the herdsmen and 
shepherds, washing down their bodies into the estuary. After the storm, when the 
flood subsided, an extraordinary spectacle was seen on a large sand-bank, called 
"the beds of Esk," where there is a meeting of the tidal waters, and where heavy 
bodies are usually left stranded after great floods. On this single bank were 
found collected together the bodies of nine black cattle, three horses, one 
thousand eight hundred and forty sheep, forty-five dogs, one hundred and eighty 
hares, besides a great number of smaller animals, and, mingled with the rest, 
the corpses of two men and one woman. </p></blockquote>
<p>In one of the chapters of my book, a sand grain takes a journey down a river, 
the Susquehanna, and for the epigraph I liked the following from Ralph Waldo 
Emerson's “Woodnotes II”
</p><blockquote>
<p>The river knows its way to the sea;
</p><p>Without a pilot it runs and falls,
</p><p>Blessing all lands with its charity.</p></blockquote>
<p>While the chapter includes descriptions of rivers in flood, I felt, that 
evening last week, that I should start the talk with an apology to the citizens 
of Cockermouth for an introduction that only shows one side of the fluvial 
coin. Beauty and violence - the way our earth works. 
</p><p style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://throughthesandglass.typepad.com/.a/6a01053614d678970c0120a74b2188970b-pi"><img alt="Sands" border="0" class="asset asset-image at-xid-6a01053614d678970c0120a74b2188970b " src="http://throughthesandglass.typepad.com/.a/6a01053614d678970c0120a74b2188970b-800wi" style="width: 533px; height: 244px; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; display: block;" title="Sands" /></a> <br />   
</p><p>[Cockermouth flood photos <em>The Guardian</em>, Scott Heppell/AP, <a href="http://edwardthesecond.blogspot.com/2009/11/photos-and-floods.html">http://edwardthesecond.blogspot.com/2009/11/photos-and-floods.html</a>, 
and the British Geological Survey. The complete <em>Principles of Geology</em> 
can be accessed online at <a href="http://www.naderlibrary.com/lyell.toc.htm">http://www.naderlibrary.com/lyell.toc.htm</a> 
or <a href="http://www.esp.org/books/lyell/principles/facsimile/" title="http://www.esp.org/books/lyell/principles/facsimile/">http://www.esp.org/books/lyell/principles/facsimile/</a>. 
Jennings Brewery will be back up and running by mid-January] 
</p><p>  
</p><xhtml:img xmlns:xhtml="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml" src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/typepad/NMnB/~4/zi64C14qwmM" height="1" width="1" /></div></content>


    <feedburner:origLink>http://throughthesandglass.typepad.com/through_the_sandglass/2009/12/reports-from-the-solway-firth-1-beauty-and-violence.html</feedburner:origLink></entry>
    <entry>
        <title>"Free Spirit" update - things are looking worse</title>
        <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/typepad/NMnB/~3/hNSFLjTIQhs/free-spirit-update-things-are-looking-worse.html" />
        <link rel="replies" type="text/html" href="http://throughthesandglass.typepad.com/through_the_sandglass/2009/12/free-spirit-update-things-are-looking-worse.html" thr:count="1" thr:updated="2009-12-13T12:04:22+00:00" />
        <id>tag:typepad.com,2003:post-6a01053614d678970c0120a743cae8970b</id>
        <published>2009-12-11T17:54:55+00:00</published>
        <updated>2009-12-11T17:56:33+00:00</updated>
        <summary>Since Spirit has been travelling backwards for a long time, dragging its right front wheel behind it, it's easy to lose track of orientations and what's going on where. The image below is taken from the front of the rover,...</summary>
        <author>
            <name>Michael Welland</name>
        </author>
        <category scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category" term="Extraterrestrial" />
        <category scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category" term="News" />
        <category scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category" term="Science" />
        
        
<content type="xhtml" xml:lang="en-US" xml:base="http://throughthesandglass.typepad.com/through_the_sandglass/"><div xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml"><div style="text-align: center;"><p><a href="http://throughthesandglass.typepad.com/.a/6a01053614d678970c01287646d016970c-pi"><img alt="Free spirit 2" border="0" class="asset asset-image at-xid-6a01053614d678970c01287646d016970c " src="http://throughthesandglass.typepad.com/.a/6a01053614d678970c01287646d016970c-800wi" style="width: 527px; height: 395px; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; display: block;" title="Free spirit 2" /></a></p><p style="text-align: left;">Since Spirit has been travelling backwards for a long time, dragging its right <em>front </em>wheel behind it, it's easy to lose track of orientations and what's going on where. The image below is taken from the front of the rover, but looking backwards, and the disabled wheel, the <em>right front</em>, is at the right. When I was reading about the failed attempts to move the rover, as I reported in the previous post, I hadn't realised that the stalled wheel that ended the test was the <em>right rear </em>wheel that had, up until now been functioning reasonably well. It now seems very likely that the right rear wheel has ceased to function and this leaves Spirit with only four working wheels, three of which are more or less buried. </p><p style="text-align: center;"> <a href="http://throughthesandglass.typepad.com/.a/6a01053614d678970c0120a743c826970b-pi" style="display: inline;"><img alt="Rear view" border="0" class="asset asset-image at-xid-6a01053614d678970c0120a743c826970b " src="http://throughthesandglass.typepad.com/.a/6a01053614d678970c0120a743c826970b-800wi" style="width: 532px; height: 412px;" title="Rear view" /></a> </p><div style="text-align: left;"><p>It's therefore, as the <em>New Scientist </em>reported a couple of days ago, looking even more grim:</p><blockquote>
<p>Now, Spirit's right-rear wheel is also having problems and may be permanently 
disabled.
</p><p>The right-rear wheel stalled on 28 and 21 November during attempts to start 
driving the rover out of the sand trap. Each wheel has its own motor, and the 
rover team commanded Spirit to try to spin the wheel again during a series of 
tests on 3 and 4 December – but it did not budge.
</p><p>In the previous stalls, the wheel had at least moved a little bit before 
unexpectedly stopping. But no motion at all was detected in the tests.
</p><p>"That's troubling," says rover project manager John Callas of NASA's Jet 
Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, California. "It's conceivable we're 
witnessing a deterioration on the wheel."
</p><p>If the wheel cannot be coaxed into working again, then Spirit will likely be 
trapped forever, Callas says.
</p><p>"It was questionable whether we could get a five-wheel-driving rover out," he 
says. "If we have a four-wheel-driving rover [with] only one driving wheel on 
the right-hand side ... then extracting the rover from its current embedded 
location is unlikely."
</p><p>Spirit could die if it remains stuck when winter arrives six months from now 
at the rover's location in Mars's southern hemisphere, Callas says.
</p><p>In previous winters, Spirit rested on slopes that angled its solar arrays in 
a way that captured as much sunlight as possible. That allowed the rover to 
power heaters designed to keep its electronic innards from freezing.
</p><p>But Spirit's solar panels are not currently at a good angle to maximise 
sunlight. Meanwhile, dust is slowly accumulating on the panels, reducing their 
efficiency. If the rover is unable to move, it could run out of power and die in 
the frigid Martian night.
</p><p>"If we extrapolate current dust accumulation rates out to the next winter six 
months away, it does look troubling," Callas says. "There's a real possibility 
Spirit would not have power to survive the winter at its current 
attitude."</p></blockquote></div><p style="text-align: center;"><br /> </p> <br /></div><xhtml:img xmlns:xhtml="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml" src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/typepad/NMnB/~4/hNSFLjTIQhs" height="1" width="1" /></div></content>


    <feedburner:origLink>http://throughthesandglass.typepad.com/through_the_sandglass/2009/12/free-spirit-update-things-are-looking-worse.html</feedburner:origLink></entry>
    <entry>
        <title>"Free Spirit" campaign - but it doesn't look good for the Mars Rover</title>
        <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/typepad/NMnB/~3/_VwdO1k0gEc/free-spirit-campaign---but-it-doesnt-look-good-for-the-mars-rover.html" />
        <link rel="replies" type="text/html" href="http://throughthesandglass.typepad.com/through_the_sandglass/2009/12/free-spirit-campaign---but-it-doesnt-look-good-for-the-mars-rover.html" thr:count="3" thr:updated="2009-12-09T13:35:06+00:00" />
        <id>tag:typepad.com,2003:post-6a01053614d678970c0120a7207fb8970b</id>
        <published>2009-12-07T11:59:48+00:00</published>
        <updated>2009-12-07T12:13:26+00:00</updated>
        <summary>“It’s way out of warranty,” said Ray Arvidson, director of the Earth and Planetary Remote Sensing Laboratory at Washington University in St. Louis. “It’s like an old ’55 Chevy.” He was talking about the intrepid Mars Rover, Spirit, that has,...</summary>
        <author>
            <name>Michael Welland</name>
        </author>
        <category scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category" term="Extraterrestrial" />
        <category scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category" term="News" />
        <category scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category" term="Science" />
        
        
<content type="xhtml" xml:lang="en-US" xml:base="http://throughthesandglass.typepad.com/through_the_sandglass/"><div xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml"><div style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://throughthesandglass.typepad.com/.a/6a01053614d678970c0120a7207a85970b-pi" style="display: inline;"><img alt="Free spirit" border="0" class="asset asset-image at-xid-6a01053614d678970c0120a7207a85970b " src="http://throughthesandglass.typepad.com/.a/6a01053614d678970c0120a7207a85970b-800wi" style="width: 539px; height: 281px;" title="Free spirit" /></a> <br /> <br /></div>
<p> “It’s way out of warranty,” said Ray Arvidson, director of the Earth and 
Planetary Remote Sensing Laboratory at Washington University in St. Louis. “It’s 
like an old ’55 Chevy.” He was talking about the intrepid Mars Rover, Spirit, 
that has, along with its sibling on the other side of the planet, Opportunity, 
been trundling around for six years of a mission that was expected to last three 
months. In 2006, Spirit's right front wheel stopped working and so it continued 
backwards, dragging the wheel behind it. Then, in April of this year, having 
been working around an area known as "Home Plate", a miniature plateau just 80 
meters (260 feet) across - see the image below - for more than three-and-a-half 
years, Spirit's wheels broke through a poorly cemented sand crust and the rover 
became stuck in the very fine loose sand beneath. And, as I <a href="http://throughthesandglass.typepad.com/through_the_sandglass/2009/05/stuck-in-the-sand-a-long-way-from-anywhere.html">wrote 
back in May</a>, it was seriously stuck - the images were enough to strike 
horror into the heart of a field geologist and Arvidson described the situation 
as "Murphy's Law on steroids."</p>
<p style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://throughthesandglass.typepad.com/.a/6a01053614d678970c0120a7207b5f970b-pi" style="display: inline;"><img alt="Route" border="0" class="asset asset-image at-xid-6a01053614d678970c0120a7207b5f970b " src="http://throughthesandglass.typepad.com/.a/6a01053614d678970c0120a7207b5f970b-800wi" style="width: 552px; height: 487px;" title="Route" /></a> <br />  </p>
<p>NASA have spent much of the last months setting up a test bed of fine sand of 
the the same character as that which has ensnared Spirit (see <a href="http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/video/index.cfm?id=877">video</a>), and working on 
possible minute manoeuvres to extricate the rover. These have now been put to 
the test - sadly with minimal results. The image at the top of this post is 
taken from <a href="http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/mer/images/mer20091201.html">NASA's 
report</a> of a few days ago - and it looks awful. Total wheel movement during 
the attempt was 1.4 meters (4.6 feet) and "Analysis of data from the drive 
indicates that the center of the rover moved 0.5 millimeters (0.02 inch) 
forward, 0.25 millimeters (0.01 inch) to the left and 0.5 millimeters (0.02 
inch) downward." Spirit was just spinning its wheels and the trial was stopped when the inactive right rear wheel 
stalled again. And, as if this weren't bad enough, communications with earth 
have been disrupted by problems with the Mars orbiting satellites.</p>
<p>But Spirit hasn't just been sitting there twiddling its robotic thumbs. As 
the <em>New Scientist</em> recently reported:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Spirit has been immobile for the past six months, but it has not been idle.
</p><p>The rover's own observations have revealed the cause of its plight - a small 
crater filled with yielding, yellow-brown sand. The sand had been hidden beneath 
a dust-covered crust of weakly cemented sand particles.
</p><p>Spirit's wheels punched through this centimetres-thick crust, exposing soil 
with the highest concentration of sulphate minerals ever found by either Spirit 
or its twin, Opportunity.
</p><p>Sulphates form in the presence of water, so the find further reinforces the 
idea that, billions of years ago, the area surrounding Spirit was rich in the 
liquid.
</p><p>Researchers suspect Spirit's stomping ground was once a site of intense 
hydrothermal activity. Pools of hot water and steam vents may have dotted the 
area, making it a good place for future missions to look for evidence of ancient 
Martian life, says Spirit scientist <a href="http://epsc.wustl.edu/admin/people/arvidson.html">Ray Arvidson</a> of 
Washington University in St Louis, Missouri. "If it were Earth with that kind of 
environment, it would be teeming with microbes," he says.
</p><p>Nonetheless, the rover team is keen to move on. "It's an interesting area to 
be in over the summer," says Arvidson, "but we're ready to 
leave."</p></blockquote>
<p>Meanwhile, the other rover, Opportunity, continues its successful ramblings - 
it's travelled 19 kilometers (nearly 12 miles) so far, 2.4 times the distance of 
Spirit's trek. But Opportunity has also had its problems with sand along the way 
- in April 2005, after speeding along at a reckless 200 meters per day,  it was 
stuck for five weeks on a ripple named "Purgatory Dune" but was successfully 
extricated. But lessons were learned: when, a year later it became embedded in a 
sandy spot nicknamed "Jammerbugt" (apparently the Danish for "bay of 
lamentation"), it was out and off again in no time. </p>
<p>For Spirit, the future is highly uncertain, with winter and dust storms 
approaching. The editorial in the <em>New Scientist </em>had the following 
comment about the '55 Chevy, something with which I think we would all 
agree:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>NASA has been agonising over how to free Spirit from a sand trap for six 
months. That's double the design lifetime of the rover, which landed in 2004. 
Now, with winter on the way, NASA's hand is forced. Its plan is to backtrack 
slowly out of the mire. One could criticise the agency for investing too much 
effort in a mission that's past its prime, but that would be churlish: Spirit 
has achieved more than anyone dared dream, and could deliver yet more. Besides, 
it would seem strangely cruel to abandon the plucky rover to its 
fate.</p></blockquote>
<p style="text-align: center;"> <a href="http://throughthesandglass.typepad.com/.a/6a01053614d678970c0120a7207c88970b-pi" style="display: inline;"><img alt="386419main_mer_20090914-full" border="0" class="asset asset-image at-xid-6a01053614d678970c0120a7207c88970b " src="http://throughthesandglass.typepad.com/.a/6a01053614d678970c0120a7207c88970b-800wi" style="width: 473px; height: 337px;" title="386419main_mer_20090914-full" /></a> <br /> </p>
<blockquote>
<br /></blockquote><xhtml:img xmlns:xhtml="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml" src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/typepad/NMnB/~4/_VwdO1k0gEc" height="1" width="1" /></div></content>


    <feedburner:origLink>http://throughthesandglass.typepad.com/through_the_sandglass/2009/12/free-spirit-campaign---but-it-doesnt-look-good-for-the-mars-rover.html</feedburner:origLink></entry>
    <entry>
        <title>"Climategate" - one voice of reason</title>
        <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/typepad/NMnB/~3/kSFO49Qyh7k/climategate---one-voice-of-reason.html" />
        <link rel="replies" type="text/html" href="http://throughthesandglass.typepad.com/through_the_sandglass/2009/12/climategate---one-voice-of-reason.html" thr:count="3" thr:updated="2009-12-10T20:50:07+00:00" />
        <id>tag:typepad.com,2003:post-6a01053614d678970c0128760ee77c970c</id>
        <published>2009-12-04T11:31:36+00:00</published>
        <updated>2009-12-04T11:40:33+00:00</updated>
        <summary>No, that voice is not mine, but any voice of reason in the smoke and dust and the hysterical pronouncements surrounding the leaked e-mails is difficult to find; once found it deserves to be shared. I try, imperfectly, to operate...</summary>
        <author>
            <name>Michael Welland</name>
        </author>
        <category scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category" term="Current Affairs" />
        <category scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category" term="News" />
        <category scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category" term="Science" />
        
        
<content type="xhtml" xml:lang="en-US" xml:base="http://throughthesandglass.typepad.com/through_the_sandglass/"><div xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml"><p>No, that voice is not mine, but any voice of reason in the smoke and dust and 
the hysterical pronouncements surrounding the leaked e-mails is difficult to 
find; once found it deserves to be shared. </p>
<p>I try, imperfectly, to operate to some basic principles. One, relating to 
this blog, is that it is devoted to information, ideas, news and fun that 
interest me and illustrate the stories that sand can tell and the journeys it 
can take us on; it's been called a "niche" blog, and I'm happy with that. What 
it is <em>not</em> is a platform for my opinions (of which I readily admit to 
having many) or antagonistic debate. But just once in a while, something comes 
up that prompts me to make a brief exception, to stray from my theme into an 
area that is not strictly arenacaeous. I last did so over the <a href="http://throughthesandglass.typepad.com/through_the_sandglass/2009/06/a-thematic-departure---in-the-interests-of-science-and-free-speech.html">Simon Singh case</a> 
and the dire relationship between science and the British libel laws, and now 
"climategate" prompts another departure.</p>
<p>Another principle that I try to adhere to in life in general is that, in 
public and professional life, I will only express my views on topics that I know 
something about; privately (as my wife will testify to), I can become vocally 
excited about all kinds of issues. As a scientist, I am particularly exercised 
by the portrayal of our world in exclusively black and white terms by 
individuals and organisations with axes to grind and by people who set 
themselves up to pontificate on topics for which they have no credentials to do 
so. If science tells us anything, it's that we live in world characterised by a 
glorious spectrum of shades of gray, a spectrum that we should relish rather 
than seek to portray it as black and white. </p>
<p>As, over the last week or so, I have sought facts or at least authoritative 
and credible opinion on the case of the Climatic Research Unit e-mails, it has 
been once again driven home to me how naive I am in restricting public 
pronouncements to topics on which I like to think I have some credibility - the 
media and the internet are, in many ways, a free-for-all. In the UK recently, 
for example, we have been treated in the <em>Guardian </em>and television's 
Channel 4 news (neither of them exactly from the muck-raising hysterical end of 
the media spectrum) to the views of the founder of "The Global Warming Policy 
Foundation." Now this title would seem to carry intellectual <em>gravitas</em> - 
I certainly presumed so. Until I discovered that the founder is a social 
anthropologist in the Department of Sport and Exercise Sciences at Liverpool's 
John Moores University (as distinct from Liverpool University) and that the 
chairman (and co-founder) is Nigel (sorry, <em>Lord</em>) Lawson, Chancellor of 
the Exchequer under Margaret Thatcher and prominent denouncer of climate 
science.   </p>
<p>Irritated, but undeterred, I continued with my quest. And I found <a href="http://mikehulme.org/">Mike Hulme</a>, Professor of Climate Change in the 
<a href="http://www1.uea.ac.uk/cm/home/schools/sci/env">School of Environmental 
Sciences</a> at the <a href="http://www1.uea.ac.uk/cm/Home">University of East 
Anglia</a> and founding Director of the <a href="http://www.tyndall.ac.uk/">Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research</a>, 
a body with, for me, greater credibility than the Global Warming Policy 
Foundation. He's the author of <a href="http://www.cambridge.org/uk/catalogue/catalogue.asp?isbn=9780521898690"><em>Why 
We Disagree About Climate Change</em></a><em>,</em> a book recently published by 
Cambridge University Press (and one that I should now read), and a thoughtful - 
and informed - commentator on these issues. In an atmosphere within which some 
scientists seem, quite frankly, to have lost the plot and provided grist to the 
cacophonous mills of those who make a living out of vilifying science, Hulme's 
is a refreshing voice of reason. A couple of days ago, the online <em>Wall 
Street Journal </em>carried a <a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704107104574571613215771336.html">piece 
by him</a> that struck me as excellent, and so I have reproduced it below; for 
further reading, try <a href="http://www.mikehulme.org/wp-content/uploads/the-five-lessons-of-climate-change.pdf"><em>The 
Five Lessons of Climate Change: a personal statement</em></a>, and much more via 
his website.</p><p />
<span style="font-size: 16px;">The Science and Politics of Climate Change </span>
<h4>Science never writes closed textbooks. It does not offer us a holy 
scripture, infallible and complete.</h4>
<h4>By Mike Hulme </h4>
<p>I am a climate scientist who worked in the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) at 
the University of East Anglia in the 1990s. I have been reflecting on the bigger 
lessons to be learned from the stolen emails, some of which were mine. One thing 
the episode has made clear is that it has become difficult to disentangle 
political arguments about climate policies from scientific arguments about the 
evidence for man-made climate change and the confidence placed in predictions of 
future change. The quality of both political debate and scientific practice 
suffers as a consequence.
</p><p>Surveys of public opinion on both sides of the Atlantic about man-made 
climate change continue to tell us something politicians know only too well: The 
citizens they rule over have minds of their own. In the U.K., a recent survey 
suggested that only 41% believed humans are causing climate change, 32% remained 
unsure and 15% were convinced we aren't. Similar surveys in the U.S. have shown 
a recent reduction in the number of people believing in man-made climate change.
</p><p>One reaction to this "unreasonableness" is to get scientists to speak louder, 
more often, or more dramatically about climate change. Another reaction from 
government bodies and interest groups is to use ever-more-emotional campaigning. 
Thus both the U.K. government's recent "bedtime stories" adverts, and Plane 
Stupid's Internet campaign showing polar bears falling past twin towers, have 
attracted widespread criticism for being too provocative and scary. These 
instinctive reactions fail to place the various aspects of our knowledge about 
climate change—scientific insights, political values, cultural moods, personal 
beliefs—in right relationship with each other. Too often, when we think we are 
arguing over scientific evidence for climate change, we are in fact disagreeing 
about our different political preferences, ethical principles and value systems.
</p><p>If we build the foundations of our climate-change policies so confidently and 
so single-mindedly on scientific claims about what the future holds and what 
therefore "has to be done," then science will inevitably become the field on 
which political battles are waged. The mantra becomes: Get the science right, 
reduce the scientific uncertainties, compel everyone to believe it. . . and we 
will have won. Not only is this an unrealistic view about how policy gets made, 
it also places much too great a burden on science, certainly on climate science 
with all of its struggles with complexity, contingency and uncertainty.
</p><p><a name="U10310482219EIF" />The events of the last few of weeks, involving 
stolen professional correspondence between a small number of leading climate 
scientists—so-called climategate—demonstrate my point. Both the theft itself and 
the alleged contents of some of the stolen emails reveal the strong polarization 
and intense antagonism now found in some areas of climate science.
</p><p><a name="U103104822194ND" />Climate scientists, knowingly or not, become 
proxies for political battles. The consequence is that science, as a form of 
open and critical enquiry, deteriorates while the more appropriate forums for 
ideological battles are ignored.
</p><p>We have also seen how this plays out in public debate. In the wake of 
climategate, questions were asked on the BBC's Question Time last week about 
whether or not global warming was a scam. The absolutist claims of two of the 
panelists—Daily Mail journalist Melanie Phillips, and comedian and broadcaster 
Marcus Brigstocke—revealed how science ends up being portrayed as a fight 
between two dogmas: Either the evidence for man-made climate change is all fake, 
or else we are so sure we know how the planet works that we can claim to have 
just five or whatever years to save it. When science is invoked to support such 
dogmatic assertions, the essential character of scientific knowledge is 
lost—knowledge that results from open, always questioning, enquiry that, at 
best, can offer varying levels of confidence for pronouncements about how the 
world is, or may become.
</p><p>The problem then with getting our relationship with science wrong is simple: 
We expect too much certainty, and hence clarity, about what should be done. 
Consequently, we fail to engage in honest and robust argument about our 
competing political visions and ethical values.
</p><p>Science never writes closed textbooks. It does not offer us a holy scripture, 
infallible and complete. This is especially the case with the science of 
climate, a complex system of enormous scale, at every turn influenced by human 
contingencies. Yes, science has clearly revealed that humans are influencing 
global climate and will continue to do so, but we don't know the full scale of 
the risks involved, nor how rapidly they will evolve, nor indeed—with clear 
insight—the relative roles of all the forcing agents involved at different 
scales. 
</p><p>Similarly, we endow analyses about the economics of climate change with too 
much scientific authority. Yes, we know there is a cascade of costs involved in 
mitigating, adapting to or ignoring climate change, but many of these costs are 
heavily influenced by ethical judgements about how we value things, now and in 
the future. These are judgments that science cannot prescribe.
</p><p>The central battlegrounds on which we need to fight out the policy 
implications of climate change concern matters of risk management, of valuation, 
and political ideology. We must move the locus of public argumentation here not 
because the science has somehow been "done" or "is settled"; science will never 
be either of these things, although it can offer powerful forms of knowledge not 
available in other ways. It is a false hope to expect science to dispel the fog 
of uncertainty so that it finally becomes clear exactly what the future holds 
and what role humans have in causing it. This is one reason why British 
columnist George Monbiot wrote about climategate, "I have seldom felt so alone." 
By staking his position on "the science," he feels alone and betrayed when some 
aspect of the science is undermined.
</p><p>If climategate leads to greater openness and transparency in climate science, 
and makes it less partisan, it will have done a good thing. It will enable 
science to function in the effective way it must do in public policy 
deliberations: Not as the place where we import all of our legitimate 
disagreements, but one powerful way of offering insight about how the world 
works and the potential consequences of different policy choices. The important 
arguments about political beliefs and ethical values can then take place in open 
and free democracies, in those public spaces we have created for political 
argumentation. </p><xhtml:img xmlns:xhtml="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml" src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/typepad/NMnB/~4/kSFO49Qyh7k" height="1" width="1" /></div></content>


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