The big news this week will be on the inflation front and the related issue of the dollar which has been under increasing pressure the last few weeks. With the Export/Import Price Indexes showing signs of inflation in both categories, including but not limited to big spikes in oil import prices, there are plenty of indications that dollar denominated price inflation is rearing its ugly head at home and abroad. Tuesday the BLS will release the Producer Price Index, the key measure of domestic wholesale price inflation, and Wednesday the Consumer Price Index, the headline measure of domestic retail price inflation.

Domestic inflation is heating up for one simple reason – the doubling of the size of the Fed balance sheet and the base M1 money supply. Both those important figures are reported on Thursday, every week. Unfortunately the Fed's hands are nearly tied in reversing these trends as the broader economy still appears weak. Unemployment is still rising with weekly first time jobless claims still exceeding 600,000. Last week's surprise drop in claims has the 4-week average trending down, but not yet enough to give any real leeway to start seriously battling inflation. Another good report on Leading Indicators, also due out Thursday, could shore up confidence in the economy and the dollar while also helping with the perception that the Fed is helpless to contain inflation.

Import inflation, especially in oil and other commodities, is being fed by weakness in the dollar, which is as much a matter of foreign investor confidence as anything else. Monday's Treasury report on International Capital will put a number to foreign feelings about the dollar and the US economy, while Wednesday's Current Account report from the Bureau of Economic Analysis will give investors a snapshot of the US position in the world economy.

The worst numbers this week are likely to come from housing, as has become almost expected, and manufacturing. The housing numbers this week are among the weakest in the sector the last several months – home builder confidence as reflected in the Housing Market Index from the National Association of Homebuilders and housing starts as reported by the Commerce Department. In manufacturing, the Fed will report on industrial production, which has been weak, and the New York Fed will report on Empire State manufacturing. The Empire State report, seen as a leading indicator of the national report, is expected to continue its negative course based on poor new order numbers in last month's report.

Treasury has plenty of extra activity this week, with 2-year, 5-year and 7-year Treasury Note announcements on Thursday. Big borrowing numbers to support the massive federal budget gap continue to have the potential to negatively impact the dollar's value.

Though there are no economic indicators due out Friday, don't expect a dull day. It's Quadruple Witching Friday when stock index futures, stock index options, stock options and single stock futures all expire.

In international indicators, the Conference Board will release Leading Indexes for Korea and Spain on Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively.

*See more information on the Financial Roadmap series here. Earnings reports are companies of interest, NOT recommendations.

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Financial Roadmap: The Week Ahead June 15 to 19, 2009

With no major economic indicators due out Monday, the way is clear for the markets to react strongly to a decision by Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsberg on the Chrysler creditor appeal to the Bankruptcy Court's approval of the Fiat sale. Markets have been reacting positively to an apparently quick and painless Chrysler bankruptcy and the potential for a similar process for General Motors. A stay preventing the sale could negatively impact US stocks, though financial stocks may breathe a sigh of relief if the major creditors that got shafted in favor of unions and the government get that reprieve. The Conference Board will release its Employment Trends Index on Monday, likely confirming the bulk of last week's labor market data that showed unemployment continuing to rise but at a slower pace.

Tuesday the Commerce Department will report on Wholesale Trade. With the weekly Redbook retail index and the International Council of Shopping Centers report on major chain store sales, retail is well covered Tuesday as well.

Wednesday's biggest news will be the Federal Reserve Beige Book, which will give savvy investors a chance to see the bright spots, geographically and by industry, that will lead the economic recovery. Other big news Wednesday will be the Foreign Trade statistics from the Commerce Department, where an increase in non-petroleum imports would be further sign of a rebound starting. And in the field of petroleum, Wednesday's oil inventory report will be very important as consumers are beginning to chafe at a subdued repeat of last summer's gasoline price spike that did at least as much to damage the economy as Wall Street's paper problems.

Thursday brings a triple whammy with stats on retail sales, jobless claims and business inventories. Retail sales are widely expected to improve after April's disappointing report while jobless claims continue at a high level. The less commented news on business inventories may be more important, as business inventories have contracted considerably but generally not as much as sales. Too high inventories are negative for economic growth, as businesses scale back production to deplete excess inventories. The inventory-to-sales ratio hit a 9-year high in January, but has started to fall. Also Thursday, the RBC Financial Group will release its CASH Index report on consumer confidence and finances, the Conference Board will release the Leading Indexes for Japan and the UK, and the Fed balance sheet and money supply reports will deserve a look.

Friday's big news is in international trade and inflation, with the release of Import/Export Price Indexes from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. With lending and spending still slow in the US, the first sign that the Fed's money creation is leading to inflation is likely to come from the import sector.

There is extra action this week from Treasury on several fronts. The usual weekly 4-week, 3-month and 6-month T-bill auctions will be supplemented by a 3-Year Treasury Note auction Tuesday, a 10-Year aote Auction Wednesday, a 30-Year Bond auction Thursday and the release of federal budget figures on Wednesday.

*See more information on the Financial Roadmap series here. Earnings reports are companies of interest, NOT recommendations.

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Financial Roadmap: The Week Ahead June 8 to 12, 2009

The first week of June will be a busy one for investors watching economic news with reports on manufacturing, housing and retail sales early in the week and employment related reports dominating Wednesday through Friday. There's no single indicator that will really set the tone for the whole week with big news almost every day.

Monday, the Institute for Supply Management will release its Manufacturing Report on Business with the headline Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) number and the auto makers will release their May sales. Of real interest for those following the Big Three woes will be whether the prediction that «no one will buy cars from a bankrupt car company» hold true for Chrysler. Also Monday, the Commerce Department will release Constrution Spending and Personal Income and Spending reports. The first employment indicator of the week, the Help Wanted Online Data Series, is also due out Monday from the Conference Board.

Tuesday's big number will be the Pending Home Sales Index from the National Association of Realtors, which after last week's predictable mixed week in housing will set the tone of housing related discussion for the next three weeks.

Wednesday, there's more from manufacturing with the Factory Orders report from the Commerce Department plus the ISM will hit us with their Nonmanufacturing Report on Business to round out the view of the total private sector economy. The employment reports start in earnest Wednesday with the Challenger Report on layoffs and the ADP Employment report. With oil prices starting to get out of control heading into summer driving season and threatening a consumer confidence led recovery before it really gets started, the Wednesday oil report is important for more than just oil prices.

Thursday means more employment news with the Monster Employment Index which combines with Monday's Conference Board report to give a clear and complete picture of online hiring activity. In a week of labor market reports, it might be easy to ignore the weekly jobless claims, but if they can follow last week's drop to start a mini-trend, that's more good news for consumer confidence and the overall economic picture. Major retail chain stores will report on their May sales on Thursday, rounding out the retail big picture.

Friday is the big day with the Labor Department releasing the Employment Situation Report, widely expected to show another half million jobs lost and unemployment ticking above 9%. Also Friday, the Fed will report on Consumer Credit – any stabilization there bodes well for retail sales.

The Treasury Department has some extra activity this week, in addition to the normal weekly T-Bill auctions. Tuesday, there's an auction of 52-week T-bills and Thursday there are announcements of 3-year and 10-year Treasury Note auctions. With federal borrowing way up, there's potential here for numbers that could spook markets, especially Forex, though the federal borrowing should be priced in.

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Financial Roadmap: The Week Ahead June 1 to 5, 2009

The big action in the US this week is going to be in three reports - the Consumer Confidence Index Tuesday and reports on existing and new home sales Wednesday and Thursday. Consumer confidence is expected to improve slightly for a second month, but remains at low levels not seen for years. Forex traders will need to keep their eyes on other reports from the Conference Board this week, especially Thursday's release of the Euro Zone Leading Index. With German business confidence up less than expected according to Monday's Ifo report, the euro could be in for a battering this week. Add that to the geopolitical strains pushing investors to the dollar's safe haven and there's plenty of room for more dollar gains especially early in the week. Commodity traders will want to watch those reports as well, as the dollar strength is helping cap the recent runup in oil prices.

Aside from the sales reports, the Case-Shiller Housing Price Index is due out Tuesday for a solid, and likely volatile, week of housing market indicators. With inventories still at high levels, foreclosure pressures, credit still tight and buyers still bargain hunting, solid gains in sales are likely to be matched by at least moderately down price reports. Whichever way the reports go, mixed news is the very likely conclusion to housing market news this week.

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Financial Roadmap: The Week Ahead May 26 to 29, 2009

With the week down to 4 days (no figures due out Friday ahead of the holiday weekend) and very little of substance earlier in the week, this week's drama is likely to come from news more than numbers.

The housing reports due out early in the week focus on builder sentiment (Monday) and its immediate effect in housing starts (Tuesday); these are two of the last indicators where we'd expect to see real improvement in the housing market showing up and in the field of housing starts bad news is still good news thanks to a continued inventory glut. The State Street Investor Confidence Index (Tuesday) will be interesting for the comparison between the lagging European economy and the US, where both public and private sectors are forging ahead at a quicker pace than in Europe.

With the summer driving season kicking off this weekend, the Wednesday oil report could return to the fore. If gasoline demand continues to show weakness and last week's drop in inventories was a blip rather than a trend, $60 oil is overpriced. If the inventory drops get serious and demand shows even a hint of recovery, markets seem poised to resume a more modest version of last year's insanity.

The Federal Open Market Committe minutes (Wednesday) may start to get interesting again as there ought to at least be some discussion on how to contain inflation in the face of the huge expansion of the Fed balance sheet, which will be reported on Thursday. The Conference Board reports on Leading, Coincident and Lagging Indicators, also due Thursday, aren't likely to contribute much to forecasting, but the lagging indicators may confirm the growing consensus that the recession hit bottom early in the year.

*See more information on the Financial Roadmap series here. Earnings reports are companies of interest, NOT recommendations.

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Financial Roadmap: The Week Ahead May 18 to 22, 2009

With no other major indicators due out Monday, the spotlight will go to the Conference Boards Employment Trends Index and a scheduled speech by Ben Bernanke. The Bernanke speech will likely be the more closely watched; unless the index reveals some undiscovered sign of unemployment heading close to the double digits, the recent positive trend in jobless claims is likely to carry more weight.

The devil is always in the surprises when it comes to financial markets, but every indication is that Wednesday's release of retail sales is going to bring more good news. Once again US consumers are ignoring the doomsayers and leading the world out of the economic doldrums, as predicted here,

The big news this week will be in the inflation department, starting with the Import/Export Price Indexes by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Wednesday. The BLS will also release the Producer Price Index (PPI) on Thursday and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Friday. At this stage, the things to look for are signs of import inflation and inflation at the wholesale level (PPI) as the danger at the retail level (CPI) are still more in the deflation camp. Finally, the capacity utilization data from the Federal Reserve's industrial production report on Friday will likely show inflation pressues at the manufacturing level well controlled.

*See more information on the Financial Roadmap series here. Earnings reports are companies of interest, NOT recommendations.

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Financial Roadmap: The Week Ahead May 11 to 15, 2009

It's employment week starting Monday with the Help Wanted Online Data Series from the Conference Board and ending Friday with the big kahuna of labor market numbers, the Employment Situation Report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Only Tuesday won't bring at least one labor market statistic. Along the way, we'll get sideshows from the Institute for Supply Management's Nonmanufacturing Report on Business (Tuesday) and the Pending Home Sales Index (Monday) from the National Association of Realtors.

Aside from hard economic stats, the week is full of potential ups and downs coming from the Federal Reserve and the Treasury Department. Ben Bernanke is slated to testify before Congress on Tuesday and speak to a Chicago Fed conference on Thursday, while Fed branch Presidents are scheduled to speak throughout the week. From Treasury, in addition to the usual T-bill auctions, there will be auctions of 52-week T-bills and 3-year and 10-year Treasury notes plus the semiannual auction of 30-year Treasury bonds.

*See more information on the Financial Roadmap series here. Earnings reports are companies of interest, NOT recommendations.

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Financial Roadmap: The Week Ahead May 4 to 8, 2009

The upcoming week could be a volatile one, especially in Forex markets. The week starts with the Conference Board's report on euro zone Leading Indicators. With the European Central Bank's reluctance to match other central bank's levels of easing, this is not likely to inspire confidence in the euro, but any boost this gives to the dollar is likely to be short lived. The Treasury Department is making announcements or holding auctions for 2-year, 3-year, 5-year, 7-year and 10-year Treasury notes, 52-week T-bills and 30-year Treasury bonds this week, in addition to the normal T-bill auctions and topping it all off with the quarterly refunding announcement. Bottom line: the markets are going to get hit with solid numbers on hundreds of billions of dollars in Treasury borrowing. Top all that off with an announcement Wednesday from the Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee and Wednesday is likely to see lots of action in many markets.

Friday will be another very interesting day with three major numbers due out in the industrial arena: motor vehicle sales for April, factory orders for March and the ISM Manufacturing Report on Business and Purchasing Managers Index. With the consensus estimates calling for further improvements in car sales and the PMI, the risk is slanted slightly to the downside. This is not a day for short term bets, but smart investors will definitely take note of the trend in manufacturing as they make their decisions the following week.

*See more information on the Financial Roadmap series here. Earnings reports are companies of interest, NOT recommendations.

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Financial Roadmap: The Week Ahead April 27 to May 1, 2009

The week ahead could be a rough one on a number of fronts. Higher energy prices, likely down news on housing and not much positive on the horizon to offset the negatives.

The oil bubble was broken last year when it became obvious that US domestic drilling, specifically offshore drilling, for oil and natural gas would increase. Friday's federal court ruling putting increased drilling on hold will put serious upward pressure on oil prices, with serious negative consequences for consumer confidence, spending, housing and many other markets.

The bright spots are likely to be in the Leading Index, which has some potential to stabilize, and the State Street Investor Confidence Index, which likely improved. Existing home sales due out Thursday and new home sales due out Friday are likely to cast more of a pall over markets as uncertainty in March likely had a similar effect as on retail sales, causing a drop after February's good reports.

*See more information on the Financial Roadmap series here. Earnings reports are companies of interest, NOT recommendations.

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Financial Roadmap: The Week Ahead April 20 to 24, 2009

The coming week promises plenty of volatility with what's likely to be a mixed bag of economic news that's sure to rattle markets. After a solid run that brought the market up more than 15% in a month, that volatility is likely to trend to the downside.

With the Fed finally starting to make noise last week about the looming possibility of inflation, and plans to respond to it, there's danger that any signs of inflation could be taken very negatively by a weak market addicted to cheap money. The Consumer Price Index (Wednesday) and Producer Price Index (Tuesday) numbers due out this week are unlikely to show much inflation as a strong dollar has kept import prices in check and weak consumer demand has led retailers to deep discounts. The capacity utilization figures in the industrial production report (Wednesday) will be another positive for inflation, as cap utilization continues well below the long run average, easing inflationary pressure at the manufacturing stage. Where inflation is likely to come into play is in the Wednesday afternoon release of the Beige Book by the Federal Reserve and in late week speeches by Fed officials including a Friday speech by Chairman Bernanke. Mentions of inflation pressures in those venues combined with a strong retail sales report (Tuesday) could unnerve markets.

Markets may also be shaken a bit on Tuesday if retail sales don't hold up to the strong growth seen in January and February. Even a slight month-to-month drop in retail sales would still leave the picture substantially improved over the second half of 2008, but the market will likely react poorly. If we get a third straight solid retail sales report, look for a strong rally with the note that it could lead to that inflation fear backlash later in the week.

On the housing front, the big numbers this week are the homebuilders sentiment survey and the parallel housing starts. Both have been terribly weak, leaving plenty of room for improvement, but the year-over-year housing starts are still almost certain to be strongly negative. With homebuilder consolidation helping to put legs under last week's market, weakness in these reports could erode some of those gains.

*See more information on the Financial Roadmap series here. Earnings reports are companies of interest, NOT recommendations.

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Financial Roadmap: The Week Ahead April 13 to 17, 2009