A swing in BN’s favour will see PR reduced to 29 seats only, and if the tide is in PR’s favour the nascent coalition will come to power with 139 seats, the number of seats BN currently holds.

It goes without saying that every election is a different one involving new personalities, a different sentiment, and changing themes. Thus, results from the previous election can only serve as a reference. Yet it is still worthwhile to draw some lessons from it.

The political tsunami on March 8, 2008, while unexpected, was the culmination of a series of substantial changes. It cannot be understood as something that happened overnight. More importantly, since its causes are profound, its effects cannot but prove lasting.

In the latest Merdeka Center polls, 65 per cent of Malaysians answered positively to the question “How strongly are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Najib Razak is performing his job as the Prime Minister?” Among Malays and Indians, the figure is even higher at 74 per cent while it was 48 per cent among Chinese.

The Commercial Vehicle Licensing Board, formerly under the Entrepreneur and Cooperative Development Ministry, is entrusted with issuing and withdrawing taxi licences. Yet the power to enforce regulations over taxi drivers comes under the Road Transport Department. And despite its enforcement powers, the RTD does not have the power to revoke taxi licences. The RTD comes under the purview of the Transport Ministry.

Now Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak has decided to abolish the Entrepreneur and Cooperative Development Ministry, which is well-known for its generosity in funding Bumiputera businessmen, and put the CVLB under the Prime Minister’s Department under a new entity called the National Transportation Board.

Hishammuddin kicked up the fuss during his winding-up speech at the Umno general assembly when he said the party and the Malay Rulers were the only parties who fought for Malaysia's independence.

Obviously it wasn’t a brilliant statement. It got Umno’s ally MCA and other groups riled up, naturally. This also doesn’t augur well for Hishammuddin who by now should be a wiser person upon his graduation from the adolescent Umno Youth wing.

Formed on April 1 last year, PR was a response to the post-March 8th political terrain, in which the Opposition won five state governments — Kelantan, Kedah, Penang, Perak and Selangor — and more than a third of the Parliamentary seats.

The three parties — Democratic Action Party, Parti Keadilan Rakyat and Parti Islam Se-Malaysia — were advised against forming a coalition before the 12th general election as polling results consistently shown that going alone without attacking each other give the parties the best chance of capturing more seats combined. ]]> no_reply@themalaysianinsider.com (Praba Ganesan) Liew Chin Tong Mon, 30 Mar 2009 09:42:41 +0000 http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/index.php/opinion/liew-chin-tong/21268-the-analogy-of-1970 http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/index.php/opinion/liew-chin-tong/21268-the-analogy-of-1970 MARCH 25 — A bloodless coup d'etat in Perak, a ban on Harakah and Suara Keadilan, police breaking up pre-election ceramahs with brute force, and legal cases brought by the Barisan Nasional government against opposition members set the background for the impending transition of power from Datuk Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi to Datuk Seri Najib Razak.

Behind the collective Umno psyche, it is a belief that its current predicament is akin to that of post-1969 election, and its incoming leader Najib is to save the party - similar to that of his father the late Tun Abdul Razak Hussein.

Najib told the New Straits Times that "there may be some similarities during the time my late father took over (as prime minister) in 1970 as it was after the May 13 incident, and there were political uncertainties in Selangor, Perak and Penang."

Member of Parliament for Bukit Bendera, Penang and member of DAP Central Executive Committee

PENANG, Feb 1 - Perhaps it is time for the Perak Menteri Besar Dato’ Seri Mohammad Nizar Jamaluddin to seek the Sultan’s consent to dissolve the Perak State Assembly. If granted, I am confident that Pakatan Rakyat will win. A Pakatan victory will spell the end of Umno/Barisan Nasional.

By all accounts it looks like the two Parti KeADILan Rakyat Behrang assemblyman Jamaluddin Radzi and his Changkat Jering colleague Osman Jailu, who have been reported “missing”, are confirmed crossing over to Barisan Nasional.

They are “missing” ala P.I. Bala-style for a reason. They won’t surface until BN gathers enough numbers to topple the PR government at once.

On the campaign trail I heard murmurs of memories of the hardline Pas state government of 1999-2004.

On the other hand, I have recently been shown an internal poll which suggests that non-Malay support for DAP was up to the roof but Malays were generally still wary of the party.