As expected, home sales in Big Bear dropped in January.  Sales in January represent buying activity in November and December – and peak holiday season = slow home buying season.  The median sales price dropped significantly as well.

Big Bear Home Sales

Home sales in January were down 29% when compared to the December sales (56 v. 79).  On a brighter note, sales were up 10% when compared to the same month last year (56 v. 51).

Given that January thru April are the 4 slowest months of the year for sales, this number is not all that bad in my opinion.  What will interesting to see is the Feb. and March numbers. Given all the snow we’ve received recently, I think that has slowed sales down just a bit.

26, or 46%, of the 56 home sales in Big Bear were bank owned, about 13% more than last month. That is noticeable increase from the 30-35% we’ve been seeing that past few months.

4 of the sales, or 7%, were short sales, which is 3% less than last month. Short sales continue to make up a large amount of what is in escrow, nearly 35%, but yet very few of the closings.  I have yet to see a month were they make up more than 10% of the closings.  This is important if you are buying a short sale – there’s a good chance it may not go through.

26, or 46%, of the sales in January 2010 were “organic”, or traditional sellers – a decrease of 12% from last month.

Big Bear Home Prices

The median sales price in January 2010 dropped significantly.  In fact, it’s was the lowest we’ve seen for the median price in more than 2 years.  The median dropped 27% from the December number ($163,750 vs. $225,000), and was down 26% from the January 2009 median ($163,750 vs. $225,000).

Hard to draw any conclusions from this data other than the lower end of the market is what people are buying right now.  There are some higher end sales happening, but few and far between.

Homes Currently on the Market

The number of homes for sale in Big Bear continues to go down, dropping another 6% from the December number (624 vs. 661). Year over year, it is down 31% from the January 2009 number (624 vs. 902).

The reality of lower inventory is showing up everyday in the market. Properly priced homes are coming on the market and have 3-4 offers within a week period. There are less options for sale, and the buyer’s eyeballs are looking at the same properties.

If you are trying to sell, and you are not seeing any activity, you have to ask yourself why?

For sellers, this is why it is extremely important to price your property correctly in the beginning.  The first 30 days are crucial to a successful sale.  Miss that opportunity and you will be fighting uphill the rest of the way as it’s very hard to get back in the buyer spotlight.

For buyers, if something good comes on the market, you can be assured that you will be competing against more than one buyer.

Big Bear Home Sales – Thru January 2010

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* Note: The charts above are updated on a monthly basis. They represent single family home sales in the Big Bear area, including Big Bear Lake, Big Bear City, Moonridge, Fox Farm, Sugarloaf, Erwin Lake, & Fawnskin. Data courtesy of the Big Bear MLS. These numbers do not include raw land or condos nor does it include homes in the Big Bear MLS that are located out of the Big Bear area or home sales not listed in the Big Bear MLS.

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Big Bear Home Sales – December 2009

Big Bear Home Sales – November 2009

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Guess it depends on how you look at it.

The majority of home sales in Big Bear occur in the months between July and October, with the closings following 30-60 days after that.  But, this is also when the market carries the largest amount of properties for sale. 

Another way to look at it – you have more buyers looking to buy but also more sellers looking to sell.

Conversely, there are less buyers in the November to May time frame but also less sellers on the market to compete with.

Personally, I recommend the less competition route.  Here’s why – you have a better chance of getting your asking price a lot quicker when there is less competition. You get more of the buyer’s eyeballs on your property and increase your chances on getting it sold quicker, for top market price.

In a perfect world, the best time to sell would be when inventory is low and demand is high.  But exactly when that occurs is anybody’s guess.

Big Bear home sales rose 33% in 2009 while the median and average sales prices dropped 17% from the 2008 numbers.

Year to Year Comparison

Homes sales picked up as expected during the busy summer and fall months while tailing off towards the end of the year.  The 4th quarter of 2009 was the best we’ve seen for home sales since the 4th quarter of 2006 – a nice way to head into 2010.

Fourth Quarter Comparison (10/1 – 12/31)

2009 Big Bear Real Estate Breakdown

By Price Range -

90% of the home sales in Big Bear were under the $500,000 price point.  I expect that to continue in 2010.  This goes to show the lower end will see less depreciation on values as that is were the demand is.  The upper end of the market however, will continue to see values decrease in 2010. It is important to note that when looking at what is currently for sale, 23% of what is listed in over the $500,000 mark, which is over 2x the demand.

By Location -

Sales were pretty evenly split between the East end of the Valley and the West side.  Big Bear City topped the sales with 200 homes sold in 2009.  Moonridge and Sugarloff round out the top three areas.

By Category -

482 (54%) organic or traditional sales, 330 (37%) bank owned or REO sales, and 80 (9%) short sales.  Bank owned sales continue to be the hot ticket – making up 37% or the sale yet only 9% of what is currently for sale.

Big Bear Foreclosure Update

Foreclosure filings were at all time highs in 2009.  Expect to see similar numbers in 2010 as well.

Overall, foreclosure filings were up 50% in 2009 as compared to 2008, and nearly 300% from the 2007 numbers.

Broken down by the type of filing, here are the numbers -  Notices of Default, which starts the foreclosure process, were up 47% in 2009.  Notices of Sale, which sets the sale date for the property, were up 59% in 2009.  And properties taken back by the bank at the sales in 2009 were up 44%.

That about does it on my side for the year end stats.  If there is anything in particular you want to know that I did not cover, feel free to leave a comment and I will see what I can do.

* Note: The charts above represent single family homes in the Big Bear area, including Big Bear Lake, Big Bear City, Moonridge, Fox Farm, Sugarloaf, Erwin Lake, & Fawnskin. Data courtesy of the Big Bear MLS. These numbers do not include raw land or condos nor does it include homes in the Big Bear MLS that are located out of the Big Bear area, or homes not listed in the Big Bear MLS.

Sorry I’ve been so late on posting these.  To say things are busy right now in the Big Bear real estate market would be a huge understatement.

So, here we go.

Big Bear home sales slipped a bit in December but overall still remain strong.

Home sales in December were down 10% when compared to the November sales (79 v. 88), but were up 93% when compared to the same month last year (79 v. 41).

The second number really shows you how much better sales are doing this year compared to last year.  See the chart at the very bottom for the historical sales numbers for the past two years.

26, or 33%, of the 79 home sales in Big Bear were bank owned, about 2% more than last month. That number has been consistently in the 30-40% most of the year. Earlier in the year, bank owned sales in Big Bear made up closer to 40-50% of the total sales.

8 of the sales, or 10%, were short sales, which is also 2% more than last month. I do expect short sales to make up more of the closed sales this year.  The Federal government has got more involved over the past few months, instituting a short sale protocol that banks will need to follow.  This will make the process a lot shorter.  And with more banks willing to cooperate, it will make the short sale process go smoother.  Currently, 35%, or 66, of the total amount of properties under contract/in escrow in Big Bear are short sales.

43, or 58%, of the sales in December 2009 were “organic”, or traditional sellers – a decrease of a few percentage points from last month.

Bank owned properties currently make up only 9% of what is for sale in Big Bear, yet they make up between 30% to 40% of what is selling every month.  Conversely, organic sellers make up 82% of what is for sale and only 50% to 60% of what is selling.  Short sales are pretty much a wash right now, making up 8% of the total inventory for sale, and 8% of what is selling.

Big Bear Home Prices

The median sales price in December 2009 was on the rise for a fourth straight month, albeit very small increases. It rose just 1% from the November number ($225,000 vs. $222,450).  It is down 14% however, from the December 2008 median ($225,000 vs. $262.000). This still goes to show that even while sales are picking up, much higher than 2008 and 2007, the prices are still lower in Big Bear.

I still believe prices on the lower end, under $300,000, have hit their bottom.

One reason for the increase sales might be that sellers are starting to get more realistic with their asking prices.  For the first time in more than two years, the median asking price is below $290,000.  However, there still remains $65,000 difference in the median sales price of $225,000 and the median asking price of $289,900.  This number is getting smaller and smaller.  The closer these two get, the more sales we will continue to see.

Homes Currently on the Market

The number of homes for sale in Big Bear dropped another 7% from the November number.  Year over year, it is still down 31%.

There are less homes for sale in Big Bear now than in any time in the past 3-4 years. If you are a buyer, prices may be low, but options are becoming more limited. With limited options means more competition from other buyers, especially with the good properties. Expect multiple offers and lots of interest on anything considered desirable.

This offers a very unique opportunity for sellers – if you can price your property aggressively, and make it stand out online, you will have buyers lined up.  Yeap, that’s right.  We are seeing multiple offers on lots of properties right now because they stand out from the rest.  As a seller, if you are not getting any activity on your home, make sure the price is in line, your home shows well, and your property is all over the internet.  Do this and  I guarantee you will sell in this market.

Big Bear Home Sales – Thru December 2009

I will post the year end and 4th quarter numbers over the next day or so.  We already know 2009 will end up about 30% better than 2008 sales numbers, but I will take a look at some other stats as well.  Til then, stay warm.

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* Note: The charts above are updated on a monthly basis. They represent single family home sales in the Big Bear area, including Big Bear Lake, Big Bear City, Moonridge, Fox Farm, Sugarloaf, Erwin Lake, & Fawnskin. Data courtesy of the Big Bear MLS. These numbers do not include raw land or condos nor does it include homes in the Big Bear MLS that are located out of the Big Bear area or home sales not listed in the Big Bear MLS.

Related Articles

Big Bear Home Sales – November 2009

Big Bear Home Sales – October 2009

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Nope.  There are actually plenty of buyers out there in this market.  There are, however, very few willing to pay the over-inflated asking price of many sellers.

The reality is there are very few realistic sellers on the market.

We don’t have a lack of buyers.  Rather, we have a lack of realistically priced properties for buyers to choose from.

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Should I Price It Firm Or Flexible?

Actions Speak Louder Than Words In Real Estate

The Right Asking Price Makes All The Difference

Of course you already know about Big Bear Lake, as it is one of the premier vacation destinations in California. As a matter of fact, you have probably been there numerous times since you were a child and have a ton of great memories. You are already leaning towards Big Bear as the logical place to buy, but since this is a big decision, you need more info. You know that there are a great many other communities in The San Bernardino Mountains to choose from, and you want to be sure.

So, you start investigating.

Once you begin, it becomes apparent that there are far more areas than you anticipated. Lake Arrowhead, Crestline, Arrowbear, Running Springs, Green Valley Lake, to name a few. It starts to become a little overwhelming trying to weigh the pros and cons between all of the areas.

Let me clear it up for you. Your first instinct was your best instinct, and here’s why.

First off, Big Bear Lake is a public lake. This means that anybody is allowed to put their boat on the water and have a good time. Lake Arrowhead is a private lake. In order to use it you must be a property owner. Actually, only some of the homes in Lake Arrowhead have lake rights. You could buy a little place there, and still not be able to put your boat on the water. Even if you are lucky enough to get a place with lake rights, your friends and family still will not be able to put one of their boats on the water.

Another thing you may not be aware of, Big Bear Lake is approximately three times the size of Lake Arrowhead. If boating, fishing, wake boarding, water skiing, or any form of water sports is something you and your family enjoy, Big Bear Lake is the best place for you.

If you enjoy winter sports, Big Bear Lake is by far the best area to be. Boasting the two best resorts in Southern California, Bear Mountain and Snow Summit, no other area even comes close. Both resorts have some of the best snow making ability in the world. This means when the other resorts are closed or only partially open Bear Mountain and Snow Summit will both be offering fully open mountains with superior runs and snow quality. If you were to purchase a home in any other community, you would be looking at between 40 minutes to an hour of driving just to get to the parking lot of one of our resorts. There is one ski area between here and there, but it is not even close to the quality skiing offered by Bear Mountain and Snow Summit.

Even more important than the beginning of the day, is the end of the day. Do you really want to drag your sore and cold bones to the car, only to have a long drive ahead of you? How much better does it sound to be only five to ten minutes away from home and the hot tub?

Finally, one of the biggest reasons to purchase in Big Bear is the access to all the modern conveniences. When you are preparing to go out to dinner, would you prefer two or three places to choose from or dozens? When you want to go to the movies, would you like a couple to choose from or have two different theaters with several screens to choose from? If, God forbid, you get hurt, would you prefer having to drive all the way down the mountain to get care or would you prefer a community that has a full service hospital and emergency room that is equipped with a helicopter if you need to be airlifted to another facility?

In addition to these services, Big Bear also has numerous automobile repair shops, super markets, sled hills, gift shops, coffee shops, snow board and ski rental shops, a K-Mart, car wash, two hardware and building supply stores, and just about everything else you could ever want or need. And all of this is available without having to leave town.

Once you do the homework it becomes clear, no other mountain community even comes close to Big Bear Lake.

Izzy Barden

The most important piece of information your Realtor will provide is the market price. Get ahead of it, and you will be on your way to your next Real Estate destination.

Spending time or money on improvements that a buyer may or may not want will cost a seller big money in a market that is falling. Get the home clean, remove the clutter from the yard and interior, paint with neutral colors if needed, replace worn flooring, make the home easy to show, and PRICE IT ACCORDING TO MARKET CONDITIONS.

If your home is on the market for longer than 60 days, and has not received an offer, it’s overpriced. It works every time, once a home is priced as the best value it gets offers. No big secret, but a very simple answer to why your home hasn’t sold.

The Bank owned / foreclosure properties that are selling are setting the bar for pricing. Most of these homes are in less than desirable condition, and many of them are not in the best locations.

Make your listing stand out as the best value by carefully considering the active listings in your price range. Watch the market closely and be ready to react quickly if a listing or sale change the playing field.

Don’t be afraid to ask your Realtor to take you to the competitive homes so that you can see the competition through a buyer’s eyes.

Steve Hirschler

Notices of default dropped to the lowest number we’ve seen in a year, while notices of sales and trustee sales back to the bank remained near their monthly average.  There are several potential reasons for the drop in defaults – the lull of the holiday season, banks giving borrowers more time and options to resolve the delinquent amount, or less borrowers are getting in trouble.  My hope is the third explanation but it is really too early to tell.

Keep in mind, foreclosure filings are made up of three parts – Notices of Default (NOD), a recorded document that starts the foreclosure process, which is filed after homeowners fall behind in their payments. Notices of Sale (NOS), a recorded document which is typically filed about 3 months after the NOD, and sets the date for the Trustee Sale. Trustee Sales, properties that go back to the bank or sold to third parties, generally on the court house steps.

Here’s how the foreclosure numbers broke down for November 2009.

Notices of Default (NOD) - 46 total, down 33% from October but up 21% from November 2008.

This was the slowest month for defaults we have seen since last November, which may be a good sign if we continue to see this kind of drop over the next 6 months.

One thing that may skew this number – I’ve noticed some banks are not filing a notice of default even when they should.  There’s no real way to track those properties that are delinquent yet the bank has not filed a notice of default.  The question is, how many are out there?

Notices of Sale (NOS) – 63 total, down 28% from October but up 26% from November 2008.

This number has zig-zagged up and down the last few months with no true sign of pattern.

Trustee Sales (properties that went back to bank) – 33 total, down 20% from October but up 18% from November 2008.

This is pretty consistent for what we’ve been seeing the whole year, around 40 properties per month in Big Bear are becoming bank owned. These properties will inevitably hit the market for sale over the next 1-2 months, depending upon occupancy and personal property.

What can we expect in the future?

There is still a large amount of properties in foreclosure limbo land.  446 properties are in foreclosure in Big Bear, made up of 233 in pre-foreclosure (notice of default filed) and 213 in auction status (notice of trustee sale filed).  Expect most of them to be on the market for sale in the next 6-9 months.  It is important to note that the 446 does not include those properties that are bank owned, currently on or off the market, nor does it include homeowners that are delinquent but with no notice of default filed.

It seems as though banks are reluctant to foreclose on these properties, some on purpose and some because of government intervention. Whenever you have that, it screws with the natural markets conditions and is hard to draw any conclusions about the future.  Either way, I track and post the foreclosure filings every month so we can get the best idea of what to expect.  Once we start to see defaults slow down for a consistent time period, that should be a sign of things to come.

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Big Bear home sales remained strong in November as the real estate market appears to be hitting its stride.

Home sales in November were down 6% when compared to the October sales (88 v. 94), but were up a whopping 76% when compared to the same month last year (88 v. 50).

Historically, these numbers are on the low end.  But, comparing them to the number of monthly sales over the past couple years, they are stronger and a welcome sign.

27, or 31%, of the 88 home sales in Big Bear were bank owned, about 3% less than last month.  That percentage has been slowly going down over the past 6 months.  Earlier in the year, bank owned sales made up closer to 40-50% of the total sales.  7 of the sales, or 8%, were short sales, which is also 3% less than last month.

That means 54, or 61%, of the sales in November 2009 were “organic”, or traditional sellers – an increase of about 6% from last month.

Bank owned properties currently only make up 7% of what is for sale in Big Bear, yet they continue to make up between 30% to 40% of what is selling every month.

Big Bear Home Prices

The median sales price in November 2009 was on the rise for a third straight month. It rose 7% from the October number ($222,450 vs. $206,500), though it is down 7% from the November 2008 median ($222,450 vs. $240,287).

It appears as though the pricing bottom may have been hit but it’s too early to tell IMO.

There remains nearly $75,000 difference in the median sales price of $222,450 and the median asking price of $299,900.

Homes Currently on the Market

The number of homes for sale in Big Bear dropped 7% from October.  Year over year, it is down 31%.  There are less homes for sale in Big Bear now than in any time in the past 3-4 years.  If you are a buyer, prices may be low, but options are becoming more limited. With limited options means more competition from other buyers, especially with the good properties.  Expect multiple offers and lots of interest on anything considered desirable.

Big Bear Home Sales – Thru November 2009

Year to date, sales are up 29% from 2008, but the median and average prices are each down 17%. What also important to note below is that sales in Big Bear peaked in 2004, yet prices remained high until 2007. Conversely, even if sales start to pick up now, it will most likely take a few years to see any significant price appreciation. I am thinking 3-5 years.

Year To Date Comparison (1/1- 11/30)

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* Note: The charts above are updated on a monthly basis. They represent single family home sales in the Big Bear area, including Big Bear Lake, Big Bear City, Moonridge, Fox Farm, Sugarloaf, Erwin Lake, & Fawnskin. Data courtesy of the Big Bear MLS. These numbers do not include raw land or condos nor does it include homes in the Big Bear MLS that are located out of the Big Bear area or home sales not listed in the Big Bear MLS.

Related Articles

Big Bear Home Sales – October 2009

Big Bear Home Sales – September 2009 & Third Quarter 2009

But let’s be clear on what kind of auctions we are talking about.

1.  Trustee Sale Auctions (Foreclosure Auctions)

These are the auctions sold at the court house steps.  This is the third step (behind notice of default and notice of sale) of the foreclosure process in CA, where bidders can show up and purchase the lien position (specific rights) to the property.  From my experience, there is a lot of opportunity at these type of auctions.  But, with opportunity comes risks as well. These sales are cash only, and you take the property as-is, subject to any senior liens (property taxes, federal judgments, first TD loans), and there is no inspection period.

Getting a good deal on these type of sales take a time, energy, and knowledge, but it is done all the time by investors with cash.

2.  Bank Owned Auctions (Post Foreclosure Auctions)

These are the auctions you may see advertised on TV, newspapers, & magazines that advertise a mass auction at a large venue like a convention center.  Check out Auction.com run by REDC to see what I mean.

What’s important to understand about these type of auctions is that these homes are already bank owned homes that have not sold. They’ve gone through the trustee sale auction process above and no one bought them there, so they reverted back to the bank.  Additionally, they have been on the market 1-6 months as bank owned and still have not sold.  There must be something wrong with these, right?

Typically, they have not sold because they are overpriced. So, the banks put these properties in the bulk auctions process to try and get them moved.

Buyers may be lured into this “auction” mentality in the hopes that they can buy something for .50c on the dollar.  And that is just not true.

At these type of auctions, the banks put a reserve price on the properties.  If this price is not reached, the property will not sell.  For example, on a $300,000 property listing, they may put a low opening bid of $5000.00 to draw attention to it, but they have not intention of selling it for anything less than $280,000 range.  That is the reality.  If you think you are going to get it for $100,000 or so, don’t waste your time.

I personally have 4 listings that are coming up in a auction like this.  2 of them have had good offers (within 10-15%) on them over the past 2-3 months that the bank did not take.  So, if the bank did not take those offers, why are they going to a huge hit on the price at the auction?  Don’t be tricked.

Can you buy a decent property at these auctions?  Yes.  Are you going to be getting are great deal or steal?  For the reasons given above, I’d say no.

3.  Private Party Auctions

Similar to the bank owned auctions listed at #2, these are companies that try to sell individual homes for traditional sellers.  And like above, they set a ridiculously low opening bid price to draw people in with no intention of accepting a price near that range.

The important thing to find out these last two type of auctions is whether there is a reserve or not.  If there is a reserve, I would not waste my time on them.

If you are truly looking to find a steal, you need to focus on trustee sales in my opinion.