See our Eastern Conference Previews here. Now on to the West:

Clippers at Spurs

Matt: The Spurs should easily take this Western conference matchup. The advantage they have at the wings is much greater than the Clippers’ PG and inside edges. Basically, I don’t want any Los Angeles SG or SF on or near a team supported by me or anyone I know. On the other side, Manu is posting 27 points, 7 boards, and 9 assists (per 48 minutes). And Leonard isn’t any less of a force, grabbing 16 and 10 and almost 3 steals. Both of them do their scoring damage extremely efficiently as well. They’re playing against guys like Nick Young. Niagra Falls isn’t as big of a drop off. But it gets worse:

Not all advantages are created equal.

Chris Paul seemed slowed despite his valient effort. At times, drives that would normally end with layups or assists were stopped short and turned into difficult passes and jumpers. At other times, he seemed fine. Griffin may also be favoring his injured leg, and LA has no shot if its two stars aren’t 100%.

Pat: The Clippers came through in game seven against the Grizzlies to advance to the second round using a blueprint that will serve them well as the competition stiffens in the second round against the Spurs. That formula was simply a heavy dose of Chris Paul who is the best pure point guard in the league and arguably the best player in this series. The Spurs get a lot of credit for their depth, but the Clippers also have some bench options and had nine guys this year average 19 minutes per game or more. From a psychological standpoint, the pressure in this series is completely on the Spurs who are the top seed with years of playoff experience, so the Clippers can play the underdog role which really motivates some players. Blake Griffin showed some nice signs offensively in the first round and the Spurs, let alone the rest of the league, can’t keep up with him athletically if things are clicking. A lot of things will have to happen just right for the Clippers to take out the Spurs, but if they can keep games close, having the ball in Chris Paul’s hand to end a game (who can finish you off with his passing or scoring) make the Clippers as dangerous as anyone.

The Picks: Matt: Spurs in 5. Pat: Spurs in 5.

Lakers at Thunder

Matt: Just like the Spurs, the Thunder have a huge advantage at the wings. Ron Artest can only guard one guy, but the Thunder can roll out with Westbrook, Harden, and Durant all together. Unlike the Spurs, the Thunder have Serge Ibaka to neurtalize one of the Laker big men. Harden’s one of the most efficient players in the league, providing an interesting battle between Harden’s TS% and Kobe’s rage against age (and efficiency).

The Lakers are busy blaming their best players for their problems and pre-emptively firing the coach, so the only question here is, “How many games?”

Pat: It took the Lakers a few more games than anticipated, but nonetheless they move on to the second round to face the Thunder. The Lakers biggest advantage is the same this series as it would be against any other team in the league: size. Oklahoma City does have quality big men in Ibaka and Perkins, but they are not nearly as talented on the offensive end as the Laker bigs. The Thunder love to take jump shots and if Bynum can set the tone in the paint and keep the Oklahoma City shots coming from well outside, all it will take is an off game from Durant or Westbrook for the Lakers to steal a game on the road. Metta World Peace is back from his suspension and what he loses in height to Durant he more than makes up for in strength. Kobe had some huge offensive games in round one and he is proven capable to take on the scoring load when others struggle. The Laker core has plenty of playoff experience and they can use that to come out fast in game one and steal one of two in Oklahoma City. If they can put the Thunder on their heels and then use the size and skill of their big men combined with the ever present threat of a 40+ Kobe scoring night to move onto the Western Conference finals.

The Picks: Matt: Thunder in 5. Pat: Thunder in 6.

Matt and Pat are here to provide you with dueling perspectives on the Eastern Conference Semifinals. Let’s get started!

Pacers at Heat

Roy Hibbert explains the NOMS strategy is based on the 5th best OREB% in the NBA.

Matt: The Pacers’ big man Roy Hibbert will need to be dominant against the Heat’s relatively weaker interior players, and I believe there’s a chance he can. At this point, Roy Hibbert is a much better rebounder and blocker than Chris Bosh Miami Edition, and no one will dispute that he can control the glass against the likes of Joel Anthony and Udonis Haslem. The Pacers will need him to gain them extra possessions while keeping Miami’s transition offense in check. The Pacers finished 5^th in offensive rebound percentage and 7^th in offensive efficiency. Creating a feedback loop between those two numbers is the path to victory. If Miami can be turned into a half-court team, the Pacers can adopt the National Official Miami Strategy (NOMS) of pack the paint to goad LeBron James and Dwyane Wade into launching long jumpers.

Pat: The Heat have three players on their lineup that most would rank ahead of Indiana’s best player, so from the start Indiana is in the hole talent wise.  LeBron’s MVP level of play from the regular season has carried over to the postseason and that outweighs the size advantage Roy Hibbert can provide at center for the Pacers.  The Pacers have more depth but that advantage becomes somewhat limited in the playoffs as there are more days between games allowing the stars to log bigger minutes. Miami’s three point shooters (Miller, Battier, and Chalmers) showed some signs of life against the Knicks and when they are knocking down outside shots off of James/Wade drives, Miami is nearly impossible to stop. Miami is 28-5 at home this year and combining home court advantage with the relative playoff inexperienced Pacers, Indiana is up for a challenge and they may not be equipped to push this series past five games.

The Picks: Matt: Heat in 5. Pat: Heat in 5.

Sixers at Boston

​Pat: The Celtics are coming off of a series win against the Hawks and will bring their stifling defense into the second round along with them. The Big 3 may not be as formidable as they were a few years ago, but defensive anchor Kevin Garnett has seemed to turn back the clock a few years.  Rajon Rondo, assuming he keeps the chest bumps to himself, can pick apart opposing defenses as good as anyone and the 76ers will provide a challenge with their third rated defense. Brandon Bass is an improvement over Glen Davis as he can consistently hit the midrange shot and with him on the floor along with KG, Paul Pierce, and Ray Allen, the Celtics space the floor well and will force the 76ers to guard everyone. Both teams play a relatively slow pace (21st and 24th in the league) and Boston’s extensive playoff experience and great half court sets should allow them thrive if they can slow down the game. The 76ers have had several poor late game performances this year blowing leads and stumbling to the final buzzer.  The Celtics may be old, but they are talented enough to exploit those situations with heavy doses of Pierce late.  At the end of the day the 76ers are happy to have made it to the second round while the Celtics expected to be there.

Matt: The Sixers finished ahead of the Celtics in efficiency differential. Why did they finish with a worse winning percentage? A historically bad record in close games. The Bulls series featured a few close wins, so perhaps they’ve made the adjustments in strategy, whistles, and lucky bounces that often separate a win from a loss in a one point victory. In round 1, the 76ers adjusted to the Bulls’ endless screens by deploying slippery Jrue Holiday against the shooting guard, although Ray Allen is a different degree of difficulty than Richard Hamilton. (Ray’s 61% and Rip’s 50% True Shooting are not in the same solar system). On offense, the first round looked… well the Sixers looked pretty ugly sometimes. But one thing stood out: the 76ers did a much better job of attacking the rim, and they also began to earn some trips to the line. In the regular season, neither of the above happened. The 76ers led the league in long 2′s, and they shot the least free throws in the NBA. With those two numbers trending positive in the playoffs, the offense will continue to improve. And if Iguodala is healthy, the defense is more than capable of containing Boston.

Finally, the 76ers need to rebound. This is a mental issue. At times they held their own, and at others they held a staring contest while the ball bounced towards a Bull. Late in the 4^th quarter of game 6, the Bulls controlled the ball for over a minute straight by corralling 5 rebounds in a row, despite being the tired team. It was like watching a fullback run out the clock with 4 yard gains up the middle, the defense just bouncing off of him; or like a hockey team trying to kill off a penalty, unable to clear the zone. But the 76ers aren’t an awful rebounding team, they’re merely mediocre. Boston won’t be able to punish them, as they finished 30^th in offensive rebounding rate (and 20^th on the defensive end). In an effort to limit the Sixers’ transition offense, Doc Rivers will likely retreat to set the defense rather than aggressively push forward for extra possessions. It won’t work, and the Sixers will upgrade from last year’s breakfast to this year’s dinner.

The Picks: Pat: Celtics in 6. Matt: Sixers in 6.

At which point Bryzgalov began a long dissertation about the American space program versus the Soviet/Russian space program and which was superior. He noted that the first two animals in space were Russian dogs, which led to a strange exchange between Bryzgalov and a reporter about who had lost more monkeys in space — the Americans or the Soviets/Russians. Bryzgalov conceded that too many monkeys had lost their lives in that vocation.

“The problem with monkeys,” Bryzgalov quipped, “they push the wrong buttons.”

Bryzgalov’s recent masks have matched themes from Philadelphia, Russia, fighter jets, historical figures… but why? His dream job is astronaut. So here’s an idea of how the Ilya Bryzgalov Mask In Space might look:

With the black void of space, the orange glow of the sun reflecting off the bars, and the white stars shining, the Flyers colors are the base for Bryzgalov’s dreamscape.

Space images via nasa.gov; Русский (dog) via wikipedia.org, author Yras; button created by Exhumed bia softicons.com; monkey from VectorJunky.com They did not create or endorse this page.

8 Philadelphia at 1 Chicago

Chicago in 6

After calling in sick for most of April, Derrick Rose appears ready to ambush the 76ers. While a combined 8-of-20 for 21 points in his two comeback/tune-up appearances this week didn’t help his fantasy owners much, he still distributed 15 assists in the two games. If injuries do force Rose into more of a point guard role, the biggest impact will be at the free throw line if he’s unable or unwilling to drive the lane. His 5 freebies a game on 6 attempts accounts for a third of the Bulls’ work at the stripe and almost a quarter of his total points. And any help the 76ers can get on leveling the free throw totals—they attempted the least in the league—will surely be appreciated.
Regardless of Rose’s health, Chicago’s main attractions are league-leading rebounding and defense. By the end of the season the Sixers’ PF/C rotation had spun so fast it had gone into orbit, and which players will start, sit, DNP, and stay at home playing Wii hasn’t yet been announced. This is not a good sign when you face the #1 rebounding team in the NBA, even if Holiday, Turner, and Iguodala are excellent on the boards for their positions.
If Rose is 100% look for Collins to try Holiday and Iguodala against him, and look for Thibideau to find ways in the pick-and-roll to give Rose a big man to attack. Both teams showed a half-court trap in their regular season match-ups. Trapping the Sixers’ starters hasn’t seemed effective, as Jrue Holiday (6’4″) and Evan Turner (6’7”) are strong enough or tall enough to pass out of the double. Worse, they’re passing to Andre Iguodala and Thad Young, forwards more than capable of handling the ball and taking it to the rim. On the other hand, several teams tried it so there must be something in the scouting report. Trapping end of quarter iso plays that originate in a corner is of course perfectly defensible.

As the underdog, the Sixers will want to employ gambling strategies to mix up the game, so a trap might make more sense, especially with their collection of athletic 6’6”-6’8” players when the lineup includes Turner, Iguodala, and Young. They made late in a game against the Bulls by bringing Thad off of Carlos Boozer as soon as the ball crossed half-court.

7 New York at 1 Miami

Miami in 5

The Heat look poised to take the East again with Rose reeling and a clear drop off existing after the top tier of two. LeBron will showcase his skills in this series, guarding Carmelo Anthony and producing a nice stat line against the Knicks defense.
The Miami team defense in general seems unappreciated. When they’re on, they rotate in ways that must be sickening for coaches of more defensively-challenged teams. Passes that ought spring open shooters not only turn into contested shots, they turn into traps, turnovers, and soon the Three Amigos are throwing alley oops up the court.
Much has been made of various Knicks media Official Storylines this year—the new point guard, the new coach, the new Carmelo Anthony after the old coach was fired—but really, the season has been defined by absences. Namely, the Jeremy Lin Improvement Period wasn’t just about the Linsanity, it was about sending their other PGs to the bench, and the absence of the other stars. You may have noticed that Improvement Period 2—alternatively referred to as “Carmelo’s trying again” or “D’Antoni stinks and the new coach is awesome”—coincided with Amar’e's return to the bench.
That’s not to deny Melo’s hot streak. But will it continue? And even if he is Trying Harder, how much will it matter against the MVP?

6 Orlando at 3 Indiana

Indiana in 4

Basically, more minutes for pretty much anyone on Orlando not named “Dwight Howard” is not just a downgrade, but a major downgrade. Main question: “4 games or 5?”.

4 Boston at 5 Atlanta

Atlanta in 7

Thanks to the intricacies of NBA seeding rules, Atlanta has the homecourt advantage for this series, and these two are so close that it makes all the difference. While Boston has the best player on the court in this matchup—Rondo’s 16/6/15 per 48 minutes is ridiculous—the teams are just too evenly matched to go with anything other than a seven-game series.

You might think the Celtics, the old veteran team, would have the Sneaky Good Veteran advantage, but Tracy McGrady in 10-20 minutes a game is putting up a 16/8/6 per 48 minute line. Who knows what could happen when you combine the Atlanta Home Scorekeeper with a guy who can do this:

They have the better record but since I went all favs so far I’m claiming it as an upset.

8 Utah at 1 San Antonio

San Antonio in 5

The Jazz pull off an upset in game 3 when Gregg Popovich decides to rest his entire team and bring up their D-League affiliate to get some playoff experience.

7 Dallas at 2 Oklahoma City

Oklahoma City in 5

The Scoring Champion takes on the Defending Champion. Dallas hasn’t been quite as good without Tyson Chandler patrolling the paint. Wins Produced has him as a top 3 player in the entire league this year, well worth the price the Knicks paid and when you compare it to the $8 million Mark Cuban paid for Lamar Odom it’s a ste–wait, no, the word “steal” shouldn’t be applied to anyone but Odom in this scenario.

The Thunder have developed their own rim protector.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AbyOevVAYQI

Oh, wrong video, sorry.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H_vR6YJ36M4

6 Denver at 3 Los Angeles Lakers

Denver in 6

Speaking of Wins Produced and shot blockers, now that the Nuggets figured out how to spell Faried on the line-up card I’m putting them ahead for the series. By efficiency differential–the best predictor of future success–these teams are equal. The Lakers have home court but Denver’s home court is better. And finally, the Nuggets have been playing better ever since giving Kenneth Faried minutes! By Wins Produced per 48, believe it or not, the 2nd best player in the NBA.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t6ty4-l7UkY

It’s hard to argue with someone putting up an efficient 22/16 per 48 minutes.

Flop City at Memphis

Flop City in 7

People are saying Chris Paul’s been holding back and saving it for the playoffs. Really?! He was in the top 20 in everything: 14th in min/game, 13th PPG, 3rd Ast/game, 1st Stl/game… Make it a sweep if he’s actually able to play better than that.

The Grizzlies are reintegrating Zach Randolph into things, and if he’s able to kick it into high gear (and kick Speights into bench gear) I’ll probably be wrong as Jordan and Griffin can’t guard Marc and Zach.

Click here to grab a t-shirt with the design on it.

I wanted to find a way quantify Skip’s obsession with certain players, teams, and even words. Keeping track of all of the First Take topics would be a next to impossible task so I turned my attention to Twitter. Going back as far as I could on Twitter, I put every single Skip tweet from September 10, 2011 to April 18, 2012 into a word cloud generator to see what topics stood out. During this time period, Skip tweeted over 3,200 times which equals around 15 tweets per day. The following image takes the most frequent words tweeted and arranges them by size; the more the word was tweeted, the bigger the word. The word cloud generator automatically removes some of the more common English words (such as and, if, or, etc) but I did not remove any additional words myself and the results…well, the picture says it all.

I knew that Skip was probably close to getting served with a restraining order from Tim Tebow, but this picture really drives the point home. I put all of these tweets into a Word document to get a word count on his tweets. The five most common words in the English language are: the, of, and, a, to. Here’s the word counts: the (943), of (636), and (607), a (687), to (1712). Skip Bayless has tweeted “Tebow” 698 times during that time period which is more than three of the most common words in our language.  LeBron comes in a distant second at 254 with Stephen (A Smith) and ESP2 not far behind. In order to reduce the clutter a bit, I removed several of the common words that showed up above that the filter missed and tried to leave mainly individual and team names along with a few other buzz words.  Yes, “clutch” does in fact make an appearance.

The moral of the story? I’m not sure there really is one but this is one more reason why I just can’t take anything Skip Bayless says seriously.