Pretty cool. Even crazier, I screencapped THIS EXACT SAME GUY last year. Small world:

This might end up being my favorite moment of the playoffs. If you missed the original Floppers logo post, check it out here.

Miami Heat over Milwaukee Bucks (4-0)

NBA Bracketology picks: Heat 98.7%, Bucks 1.3%

They also couldn’t believe the Bucks were a playoff team

I, along with probably 99% of you, had the Heat over the Bucks in 4 games for this series. There were times during this four game stretch where the Bucks hung with Miami and made things difficult, but in every game Miami would have a 7-10 minute stretch where they cranked the defense up to their true playoff level intensity and a two point game would be a twelve point game in no time. This was a good warm up series for Miami and a likely last look at the current Milwaukee roster as they have several free agents to be. Miami’s task was to avoid complacency as they had to wait eight days until their first game against the Bulls.

Chicago Bulls over Brooklyn Nets (4-3)

NBA Bracketology picks: Bulls 56.9%, Nets 43.1%

Series Summary

I picked the Nets over the Bulls in 6 games because I thought there was no way a squad as banged up as the Bulls would be able to pull off a series on the road against a team with the talent level of Brooklyn. Fast forward to mid-series and half the Bulls team is puking their guts out on the sideline and Chicago’s 2nd/3rd best player (Luol Deng) misses two games because of illness and the Nets really had no business losing this series. But where there is a lack of will, there is a way, and the Nets got bounced in game 7 on their home court. There is really no way you can walk away from this series and take anything positive away from this Nets team. Unless they make some big changes, the Nets are essentially Atlanta north: perennial playoff team that will maybe make it to the second round. Sure, that’s a better future than a lot of NBA teams have, but for what is supposed to be a marquee franchise, it just isn’t enough.

-The Derrick Rose Debate-
I’ve gone back and forth on this topic for a month now and have heard really good arguments on both sides. At the end of the day no one besides Derrick Rose can tell if he’s truly ready for NBA action. There’s no higher degree of risk now to re-injure the knee than there would be a month or five months from now and the only money he is conceivably risking would be long term (next contract, future endorsements, etc) if he comes back and gets hurt again or can’t perform at a high level. I don’t think he’s doing himself any favors by Favre-ing us for months with all the maybes, including another maybe the day of the Bulls first game against Miami. Miami in the playoffs isn’t the team you go out against to shake off the rust, and I think if he was going to come back it would have been in the first round. I’ve defended Rose on his decision, but it’s getting harder to do so when he’s probably the healthiest guy on the team and will be wearing a suit and tie.

New York Knicks over Boston Celtics (4-2)

NBA Bracketology picks: Knicks 86.2%, Celtics 13.8%

Almost backfired

I picked the Knicks over the Celtics in 6 but at one point was really tempted to go Celtics in 6 or 7 for many of the reasons that ended up playing out: the Knicks rely too much on making low percentage, high difficulty shots, they have two offensive black holes, and they are too arrogant. I didn’t get this article finished before the first two games of the second round and we now know the Knicks are in for a long series against a team that is a lot deeper than the Celtics. I watched countless Knick possessions end with Carmelo or JR Smith taking a well contested shot well away from the basket. It was enough to get by an old Celtics team without its best player, but if that style continues they won’t see the conference finals.

On the other side, it’s clear that Boston needs to bring in some youth. Pierce and KG can still impact a game, just not for 40+ minutes. There are countless teams who would love to add either of those guys to their roster and use them 25-30 minutes a game but both have said that they want to retire as Celtics so Boston will need to figure out a way to bring in some more youth and continue to shift the focus around Rondo.

Indiana Pacers over Atlanta Hawks (4-2)

NBA Bracketology Picks: Pacers 92.6%, Hawks 7.4%

Series footage was burned, so here’s Rik Smits

The best part about this series was all the great jokes on Twitter about if this series actually happens if no one watches. Normally I can find something intriguing in any series, but this one really tested my limits. I picked this series correctly knowing that Atlanta is talented enough to steal a few games but they remain Atlanta. It seems as though the Hawks have been stuck “one piece shy” for about ten years now. The Pacers are in a similar position but they have the toughness and team effort that Atlanta consistently does not. I thought that the Pacers did well making up for the loss of Danny Granger but filling that void will get tougher in the next round and certainly the next if they make it. If you’re the Hawks, how many more years of this core group of guys do you need to see to realize the first or second round is their ceiling? They have some quality players and they need to make some moves while guys like Horford and Smith still have value.

Oklahoma City Thunder over Houston Rockets (4-2)

NBA Bracketology Picks: Thunder 97.2%, Rockets 2.8%

Most unfortunate moment of the year

I think most people still got this series right (I had OKC in 5), but the loss of Westbrook made anything past the first round highly uncertain for the Thunder. For starters, I don’t think the play by Patrick Beverley was dirty. It was an agressive play that happened during a play that gets faked in about every single NBA game (the fake call timeout by the bench and continue to the hoop) that ended with a very bad outcome.

The silver lining in all of this for Westbrook is that the people who consistently hate him will now get to see how the Thunder handle things without him. Bill Simmons wrote a great piece during last year’s finals about Westbrook and I think that what he brings to the team gets devalued way too much. Many people think that with Westbrook out Durant can simply take those shots and OKC will be fine, if not better off. The shots can be replaced but his speed, explosiveness, defense, and playmaking can’t be 100% accounted for. Durant is great but having to do everything every night is not a sustainable plan and for every poor shot Westbrook took away from Durant, there was another great play Westbrook made that made things easier for Durant. I have said before that there may be players who are a better fit for OKC, but I’m always thinking of other elite players (such as Rondo) so it’s not as if you can replace Westbrook with an average pass first point guard and expect the Thunder to remain the team to beat in the West. Durant hadn’t played a playoff game without Westbrook until this year and he may soon find out that even monster performance after monster performance sometimes just isn’t enough.

The Rockets, on the other hand, were basically what we thought they were: a team that is to be reckoned with when they are hitting the 3 ball. It had to hurt many a Thunder fan to watch James Harden do his thing, especially after the Westbrook injury. If Houston could somehow land one more big piece (such as a motivated Dwight Howard), this team goes from threat to legit contender instantly. They will be one of the main teams to watch this offseason.

Memphis Grizzlies over Los Angeles Clippers (4-2)

NBA Bracketology Picks: Clippers 74%, Grizzlies 26%

Would have liked 7 games of this

I was off on this one, I had the Clippers winning in 7. LA got the best of Memphis last year and I felt that they were even better this year and I thought that Memphis would struggle to keep up offensively, especially after the Rudy Gay departure. It’s too bad these teams had to match up in the first round as this would have made for a fantastic late round series as well. A hobbled Blake Griffin against the Memphis bigs was really too much to overcome and the Grizzlies had multiple guys step up throughout (4 different players led the team in scoring over the 6 games). Memphis proved on Sunday that OKC will have to fight hard to make it to the conference finals and the Clippers now have another off season of what ifs to look forward to.

San Antonio Spurs over Los Angeles Lakers (4-0)

NBA Bracketology Picks: Spurs 77.9%, Lakers 22.1%

Last time in an LA uniform?

I gave the Lakers the benefit of the doubt and thought they’d at least take one game at home as Gasol and Howard asserted their size advantage. Instead, Dwight was lackluster and got ejected from the final game. I believe that we have seen the end of Dwight in a Lakers uniform. This year Dwight was his typical complaining, egocentric self who didn’t put forth a high level of effort and still has yet to develop a solid post game that doesn’t include dunks. On the other hand, he started the year well less than 100% coming off of back surgery and was instantly expected to go from a glorified role player on offense to the focal point of the offense overnight once Kobe went down. He also had to anchor a defense that was filled with other guys who couldn’t keep their man away from the rim yet received a lot of the blame on defense as well. So maybe Dwight was justly unjustly treated this season? I’m not sure, but I think at the end of the day the only upside to staying in LA is the money the Lakers could offer him.

The Spurs did what the Spurs do by playing consistent, team oriented basketball and managed the minutes of their players as well as possible. Not allowing the Laker series to drag out to 5 or 6 games could wind up being the difference in the second round as they face a team that likes to get up and down the court in the Warriors.

Golden State Warriors over Denver Nuggets (4-2)

NBA Bracketology Picks: Nuggets 77.6%, Warriors 23.4%

Legend in the making

Another series I had wrong as I had Denver winning in 6. I keep thinking that the Nuggets, one of these years, are going to make a deep run, but they always seem to fall short of whatever round I predict them to get to. I thought that Mark Jackson’s complaining about the supposed cheap shots was pretty ironic considering his team was dishing them out and would have been doing even more of it had David Lee (cheap shot king) not been injured. Denver will come back next year with a lot of young talent once again and this matchup would definitely be a good one to watch in the future.

One of the biggest concerns moving forward for the Warriors has to be Steph Curry’s paper mache ankles. There is already talk of him becoming the best shooter of all time, but bad ankles and a small frame may derail that talk in a hurry. I see the Warriors as a very similar team to the Rockets; above average big man anchoring the paint and really hard to beat when the 3 is falling. And, like the Rockets, I just can’t see them pushing a series past 6 games against a true championship contending team.

Here’s a printable version:

Follow us on Twitter for more fake girlfriend updates.

San Francisco 49ers

You know how no one will likely ever feel sorry for the Colts again after they had over a decade of watching Peyton Manning play….and then replace him with a player who has the potential to be an all time great as well? That’s exactly how we should be feeling for the 49ers right now. In the early-90s they replaced one Hall of Fame QB with another. I’ve heard people talk about the “drought” the 49ers have been faced in regards to Super Bowl victories. That drought would be a warm welcome to the 17 teams who have waited longer, 11 of whom have never won the Super Bowl. Many of us fans can tell you where to stick that drought.

Other reasons why people can cheer against you include, but are not limited to: your coach shakes hands like a frat boy at a kegger and you had a shot at the Super Bowl last year and couldn’t get it done then.

Atlanta Falcons

There’s a lot of QBs in this league who get ripped apart for meager playoff performances and have that criticism carry over to next year but Matt Ryan seems somewhat immune to this. You think that one playoff win cured him of his history of horrible postseason performances? He was about 30 seconds away from blowing a huge lead last week and watching a rookie QB send him home early again. Having him in the MVP discussion every year isn’t going to mean much until he does something significant past week 17. Plus, his nickname is a play on words from one of the worst beers you can drink.

You could also cheer against this team because you’re sick of hearing how loud the stadium gets like it’s some sort of badge of honor that 70,000 plus people sitting under a roof can make a lot of noise. Congrats, Atlanta. They also got stomped the last time they represented the NFC in the Super Bowl, so if you are the sort of person who cheers for your conference there’s always that angle.

Baltimore Ravens

SPOILER ALERT: Did you know that Ray Lewis is retiring after this season? I’m hoping that instead of hearing the announcers tell us that every 5 minutes CBS can just scroll the message across the ticker the entire game. If you thought all the coverage a few years ago leading up to Jerome Bettis’ last game in the Super Bowl was overdone, the Lewis coverage will blow it out of the water.

LB Brendon Ayanbadejo thinks that the Patriots hurry up offense is a gimmick so there’d be some comedic factor seeing him get picked apart by said gimmick and, similar to the 49ers, they had their shot at the Super Bowl last year and blew it as well.

New England Patriots

While the Patriots didn’t invent bandwagon fans, their wagon has been overflowing with these people since Brady’s first Super Bowl, and they are an obnoxious sort. There’s really a lot of reasons a person could find to root against the Patriots such as Spygate, the undefeated (18-1) talk from a few years ago, their QB stars in Ugg ads, the tuck rule, and many things Bill Belichick related. The last time I checked, great dynasty teams led by the supposed greatest coach to pace the sidelines don’t lose two Super Bowls in a row to Peyton’s kid brother in games they were heavily favored in.

If those reasons aren’t enough, I present this picture and this picture.

BONUS HATER OPTION: If you want to cheer against a particular matchup, the clear choice is rooting against a Harbaugh Brothers Super Bowl matchup which ESPN will probably produce an instant 30 for 30 on the topic and play it nightly leading up to the big game.

*Truth be told, I really don’t dislike any of the teams this weekend and it’s taken me a while to come up with reasons for each team so I should add the disclaimer that the views expressed here do not represent the views of The Sports Geeks or even the person who wrote the piece in the first place.

The Picks

I followed up my wild card 4-0 prediction weekend with a pathetic 1-3 divisional round. The biggest surprise from last weekend was the sheer number of points teams put up. The lowest total was 28 points (Seahawks and Texans) and every team scored above their regular season points per game average by the following margins: Ravens +13.1, Broncos +4.9, Packers +3.9, 49ers +20.2, Seahawks +2.2, Falcons +3.8, Texans +2.0, and Patriots +6.2. Will the shootouts continue this week? There may be some high winds in Gillette Stadium this afternoon which could slow down the passing game, but I’d be surprised if we didn’t see some more high scoring affairs.

More video game like scoring ahead?

Baltimore Ravens vs New England Patriots

Current line: Patriots -7.5

These teams met on this stage last year in a thriller of a game that left a bad taste in the mouth of the Ravens who were a dropped TD or a missed FG away from the Super Bowl. This matchup, in recent years, has typically been a high powered offense (Patriots) versus a top notch defense (Ravens) but this year the Ravens bring a better offense to the table while their defense has taken a little step back. Lots of storylines in this game to watch.

Keys to the game

For Baltimore: Keep the bombs coming. If people didn’t know that Joe Flacco could sling the deep ball before, they do now. Flacco has had 5 passes of 40+ yards this postseason and the ability to stretch the field like that should open things up for Ray Rice as well who has had somewhat of a quiet postseason by his standards. The Patriots are 29th against the pass, in part because they build big leads early and force teams to pass, but it’s definitely a chink in the armor that Flacco and the Ravens could try to exploit.

For New England: Play fast on offense. The Patriots run the no huddle better than anyone in the league and will likely do a lot of it today to keep the Ravens off balance and tire out the defense. The Patriots should be able to create mismatches by forcing the Ravens LBs to cover smaller, faster receivers. They will be without star TE Rob Gronkowski, but they will have Aaron Hernandez healthy for this game who is a nightmare matchup for teams as well.

Prediction: New England wins 31-27

San Francisco 49ers vs Atlanta Falcons

Current line: 49ers -4

You don’t often see road favorites in this round of the playoffs, but coming off their dismantling of the Packers while the Falcons lost a 20 point lead, the 49ers are entering this game with confidence that’s backed by Vegas. Both teams can put up points in a hurry as the Falcons have a traditional pocket passing QB with three top notch targets while the 49ers feature a dynamic offense centered around their athletic QB who is a threat to run or pass at any moment. The 49ers have the more stout defense but Atlanta has shown an ability to win close games this year.

Keys to the game

For San Francisco: Stop the run. The Falcons offense revolves around Matt Ryan but when Turner and Rodgers run like they did last week against Seattle, it takes a lot of pressure off of Ryan who has a history of poor playoff performances. If you ignore the final drive, when Ryan was pressured and force to throw in the second half he was erratic and threw a bad interception late. If the 49ers can take away the run, they can  force Ryan to make the plays.

For Atlanta: Prevent Kaepernick from escaping the pocket with options. Last week the Falcons were credited for their overall performance of stopping the running ability of Russell Wilson…yet he killed them through the air. Often times, Wilson escaped the pocket but would do so to buy time to find an open receiver (his first thought wasn’t to run). Kaepernick will get his rushing yards regardless, but if the Falcons can force him into quick decisions to run instead of rolling out to run or pass, it takes a part away from the opposing offense that hurt them in the prior week.

Prediction: Atlanta wins, 27-24