Finally. Finally, the 2010 FSU Football season arrives. Finally, there is joy and hope in Tallahassee. Finally, there is a reason to feel good about the Noles chances. Finally, fans can watch a relevant and up to date product on the field. Seminoles everywhere it’s time to put aside your feelings about the last 35 years, positive or negative  and put forth your heartfelt cheers, your Seminole pride, your intensity and your FANATICISM. It’s time to unite under the Garnet & Gold flags at Doak Campbell Stadium at high noon tomorrow or from the friendly confines of your home or favorite bar in front of the TV. Tomorrow it’s good to be a Seminole football fan again.

Let’s be honest, the Noles should mop the floor with the Samford Bulldogs even if the Bulldogs are a solid FCS team.  I could try to tell you why you should be concerned about this or that, but the fact of the matter is that the Noles should win the game by a blowout even with a new and untested defense. I’m not concerned about tomorrow’s outcome. The weather should be nice and this should look nothing like last year’s scare against Jacksonville State.  The offense is mature and should score a lot tomorrow.

5 Point Samford Rundown For Fans

• Look for the Seminole offense to be consistently good. This is expected. Anything but offensive domination tomorrow is unacceptable.
• Look for the Seminole defense to give up some points. There will be a blown coverage here and there. The defense is entirely revamped and playing a lot of zone coverage now. It’s 180 degrees different than the Mickey Andrews era, so there will be an adjustment period. I expect Samford to score a couple of TDs and maybe a field goal or two before the Noles are settled in.
• Dustin Hopkins needs to make all of the automatic stuff tomorrow. Hopefully that means 7 or 8 extra points and a field goal or two for good measure.
• Greg Reid should get off to a quick start on returns. I smell a TD.
• Empty seats will be at Doak tomorrow. Enjoy the leg room, that will end when BYU comes to town in two weeks.

Gut Only / Non Statistically Based Score Prediction: Noles 55 Samford Bulldogs 17

Where To Follow Me Tomorrow

If you’re interested in following me on gameday, the best way to follow me is through Twitter. From there anything I post to the Tumblr site for ScalpEm (pictures / maybe a 2 minute phone-it-in-literally podcast) should be linked. I certainly won’t be doing play by play (that’s what TV / Radio / Automated Box Scores are for), but I’ll have some thoughts about everything going on inside Doak Campbell Stadium. Go Noles!

Samford Kids 1 NoleCC 0 – Congratulations on your big victory of the weekend. It ends here.

The only thing mildly entertaining that I found was this Uber Creepy Samford Cheerleader video.

Since I don’t have anything ELSE exciting, I figured I would get everyone fired up for Saturday with this rendition of the Warchant…

The next Jimbotron voting period starts Sunday at midnight and runs through Tuesday, with next week’s up on Wednesday again. Don’t forget to vote!

• Load Up On The Sunscreen – Thanks to ESPNU’s coverage of the game, the Noles are playing at high noon. This time of year that means a high of 95 degrees and mostly sunny skies for the duration of the game. Doak provides no shade to the East side of the stadium until the sun sets, and the normally late afternoon shade for the West side of the stadium isn’t spared for a noon kickoff. Be prepared with hats, sunscreen and bring plenty of cash for some Powerade or Water. It will be necessary if you plan to survive the whole game. Also, wear Dri-Fit everything if possible. You’ll thank me later.
• Get There With Time To Spare - I realize that there are still 15,000 tickets available for the game so the crowd will be thinner than a sellout, but it’s also the first game of the year. That means there are a tone of people that have no idea where they are going and TPD isn’t fully on their game with traffic yet. Also, for those of you that ride the “Spirit Express” from the Civic Center to Doak, remember that the price has increased to $5 and the line is no longer operated by StarMetro. Annett Bus Lines takes over this year, so I’m sure there will be some bugs to work out for the first game or two.
• Don’t Forget The Ice – Even if you’re not tailgating, a cooler with some ice is a wonderful thing after frying inside the stadium. Put some beverages of your choice in there and a face cloth and you’re good to go while you listen to the postgame on the radio. Make sure you keep the lid closed on the cooler too. Yeah that’s obvious, but it’ll happen and when all of your ice is gone, don’t blame me!
• Learn The Fight Song - I’m looking at you Freshman. If you don’t know it yet, learn it. I’m not talking about the Warchant either. That’s not FSU’s fight song. The FIGHT SONG is FSU’s FIGHT SONG and it’s a damn great one. Oh and DON’T ADD THAT STUPID JERSEYLICIOUS / SITUATIONESQUE “Whoop! Whoop!” crap after spelling out Florida State to it either. Oh and STAY OUTTA MY YARD!!!
• Take Pictures And Send Them To Me- Don’t forget that I want the view from your seat at Doak this weekend. Email them to me here at the site from you phone or after the game and I’ll post them up next week. Don’t forget to leave me a nickname that you’d like with the photo so that I can credit it properly!

As of Friday, about 15,000 tickets remained for the game on Saturday. Fifteen-thousand. When told the number, Jimbo Fisher seemed surprised. And so am I. Amid all the excitement surrounding the start of the Fisher era, I never thought there’d be that many tickets left this close to kickoff.

As a longtime fan and attendee of games at Doak Campbell Stadium I can’t fathom why anybody is surprised. Why? Keep reading.

1. Thanks to ESPNU’s coverage the game is set for a noon kickoff. While it might seem flattering that the Noles get to be one of the first games of the 2010 college football season, it’s still way too hot in Tallahassee on Labor Day weekend for many to deal with that kind of heat. Before TV coverage was ubiquitous a game against Samford was relegated to Pay-Per-View and SunSports tape delay, which helped fill the seats with more locals and also moved the kickoff time to somewhere around 6pm. By the way, the current forecast is 95 for a high mostly sunny skies.
2. It’s Labor Day Weekend. People make plans elsewhere, especially when FSU isn’t opening with a major opponent. I think FSU should get used to 60k instead of 80k when playing FCS teams. If another major BCS school was rolling into Tallahassee the fans would show up, but at the cost of that extra 7th home game some seasons. Bud Elliot made a great point to me a while back 60k at $50 is better than 1 less home game which is always $0. As long as it’s about money first, expect 60-70k for the lower tier games in Tallahassee.
3. The economy still sucks. People are hanging back because they are being selective about which games they attend. Sure it’s nice that the hotels in Tallahassee dropped their two night minimum for the Samford game, but $100+ is still $100+ for even one night, when BYU is merely two weeks from Saturday. Fans are spread out away from Tallahassee, so this will always be a problem unless Leon County experiences a ton of unexpected growth.
4. FSU still needs to prove that something is different than the previous 5 or 6 seasons to most fans. Sure, if you’re following the behind the scenes coverage provided about all of the internal program changes made since the Gator Bowl, then there is something to be excited about. But, for many of the average fans, they have no clue about anything until they watch some of the games. Believe it or not, that’s the majority of FSU fans, not the minority. So if the Noles win some big games out of the gate this season, Doak will certainly fill up.

AC believes anything less than 75,000 for the game is a failure. I think that’s pie in the sky thinking for Saturday, unless FSU gives a bunch of tickets away to local kids and the kids actually show up.

In Other News:

• Southeast High School and FSU came to an agreement for use of FSU’s logos. $1 per year. Thankfully someone at FSU realized how idiotic CLC’s cease-and-desist letter to Southeast was.
• If you’ve ever wondered about “average” fans, don’t read the FSU blogs or sites. Go to the regular newspapers to understand them. I think it’s amazing that many people are still outraged about Bowden’s “ouster” but they weren’t upset about mediocrity throughout most of the 00′s.
• All reports are that Dustin Hopkins had a great camp, which I think is one of the most important things for the Noles this year. Kicking is always a big deal, but this year the Noles have the potential to be close in the big games and kicking will win those games for FSU.

Where to Follow Me on Gameday:

• Twitter – I’ll update periodically while I’m at the game. The comments run the gamut from fans to the actual game. Twitter.com/ScalpEmOfficial
• Tumblr – Also something to check out is the ScalpEm.com Tumblr page (click Tumblr in the menu bar or go to the ScalpEm.com Tumblr site at scalpem.tumblr.com), where I’ll provide some short audio thoughts on the day’s games. It’s experimental, so we’ll see how it goes for a couple of weeks. Any pictures I take on the way down to the stadium will be on Tumblr too.

Ten days from now, the Marching Chiefs will be ready to play for 3+ hours strong.

Ten days from now, I’ll have the car packed cooler, chairs and food ready to roll out.

Ten days from now, you can put the game day flags on your car.

Ten days from now, I’ll double check my tickets.

Ten days from now, you can put your gameday caps on.

Ten days from now, I’ll hang the Booster pass in my car window.

Ten days from now, Christian Ponder starts his Heisman Trophy run.

Ten days from now, I’ll have the poncho ready… just in case.

Ten days from now, Jimbo Fisher will lead the Noles out of the tunnel.

Ten days from now, we as Seminoles will stand together to support a TEAM not one COACH.

Ten days from now, the first step on the climb out of the valley of mediocrity occurs.

Ten days from now, the ACC should start to worry.

Ten days from now, I’ll be there, will you?

Randomness:

• Heads up for FSU Football fans of the late 90′s domination era. I should be having a book review / giveaway for readers in the near future. Interested in what I’m talking about? Check out FSU TE Ryan Sprague’s website. I’ll let you guys know more about the giveaway when I have more info.
• Judging by the Twitter updates of various current Seminoles, the parking situation at FSU isn’t any better on the first day of classes now than when it was when I started. I would’ve thought that the parking garages helped a bit more than they evidently do.
• There’s a great article by Ira Schoffel about some of the behind the scenes changes for FSU Football. Here’s a crazy Jimbo Fisher idea… the offense and defense ACTUALLY INTERACT. So instead of having a divided offensive and defensive team (I figure the Special Teams guys are like the nerds in high school and outcasts to both sides) there’s ONE FSU FOOTBALL PROGRAM.
• Tomahawk Nation has end of camp thoughts for the Noles. Perhaps the tidbit that was most interesting to me as a fan (on Xavier Rhodes), “It is Rhodes, and not the more known Greg Reid who people around the program feel has the chance to be the high draft choice.“
• ChantRant has some interesting comments from former FSU RB Coach Dexter Carter. Carter is “stunned” that RBs are learning about the entire Offensive Line’s objective on any given play. He questions how they have the time to learn all of that. Sour grapes on Dexter’s part? Maybe, check out Tomahawk Nation’s thoughts on an interview / blog by the Orlando Sentinels Andrew Carter.
• Good luck to all of our Noles on their first day of classes!

The poll is intentionally ambiguous, answer it based on whatever criteria you wish, but here are some suggestions:

• Recruiting Successes or Disappointments
• Upcoming Opponents
• Latest Results
• Injuries
• Surprises At Practice
• Weather
• Solar Flares (whatever you feel like considering)

Leave a comment about what factors you use when voting, or why you’re voting the way you are. I’m interested to know, especially if you’re unsure or think the Noles are heading the wrong way.

Preface aside, I humbly put forth my 2010 Gut Reaction Season Prediction (MattD at TN will berate me for the lack of statistics, so for him I will assign confidence points between 0-100 based on my gut feeling of the Noles’ chance to win). Instead of the typical analysis for each game, which I’m sure most of you have read, I’m going to include some fan perspective for each contest:

September 4 – Samford – 99% - The debut of Jimbo Fisher as Head Coach and having full control of Florida State football should go smoothly. Whether it’s a blowout or not, I’m not sure. If it’s a hot day for a noon kickoff I’ll be rooting for a 35 point halftime lead by the Noles so that I can go home. Yep, I admit it, I’m leaving early and headed to the A/C (I have family that can’t be forced to stay in 100 degree temps) if the Noles are well ahead. Remember to hydrate plenty Seminole fans, and if there’s a monsoon it’s possible that the 1% chance I gave Samford to win is plausible.

September 11 – @ Oklahoma – 30% - I obviously don’t expect an FSU victory in Norman, Oklahoma. Forgetting about OU for a minute and focusing only on FSU, I don’t feel like the Noles can out talent anybody on the schedule other than Samford. FSU might be more talented than some teams, yes, but talent alone is not going to win games for FSU like it did in the 90s. Good play calling and strategy combined with excellent execution by the players will get victories in 2010. If Jimbo Fisher and more importantly Mark Stoops have something up their sleeves for the Sooners, FSU will make this game the most entertaining on the schedule and possibly walk away with a victory. It can be a signature moment for Jimbo Fisher. If the Noles DO walk away with a win, it will be important for FSU fans to remember that the magic number for 2010 remains 8 regular season wins.

September 18 – BYU – 85% - BYU never scares me as a fan. That’s naive sometimes. On paper they’re not as talented as the 2009 edition that FSU crushed in Provo. I expect a solid win from the Seminoles. At least a 3:30pm kickoff is more tolerable than a noon kickoff.

September 25 – Wake Forest – 90% - Mr. Peanut The Demon Deacon and crew aren’t supposed to be very good this year, however as an FSU fan I do have a couple of comments. First, Wake still has the cutest cheerleader I’ve ever seen (probably 10 years ago now) of any team I’ve watched FSU play. Odd stat, no? Second, Mr. Peanut The Demon Deacon is my father’s favorite mascot for some reason. Game wise I expect a Seminole victory again, but I ALSO expect a couple of injuries (hopefully not major) the defense thanks to Wake Forest’s cheating blocking scheme.

October 2 – @ Virginia – 85% - Fans in ties. Blah. I having nothing else to say about Virginia other than their new uniforms are ugly, especially that orange jersey / blue pants combo. Noles win this one too.

October 9 – @ Miami – 50% - Canes. Noles. The teams sort of hate each other. The games are always exciting. FSU tends to come out on the short end of the stick more often than not. As a reformed Canes fan, I’m never surprised when Miami wins (Canes expect to win, Noles hope to win that game).  The good news for FSU is that the Orange Bowl is gone and whatever Joe Robbie Stadium is called now isn’t not nearly as intimidating of a place to play. This one is a toss up for me.

October 16 – Boston College – 65% – History shows that the road team generally wins this game. History also tells me that some sort of stupid uniform gimmick will be used since Boston College shares similar colors with the Noles. I never look forward to this game. Never. On the bright side, I don’t sit near the visitor’s section any more. I feel like FSU should win this game, but has a very good chance to be upset by a B.C. team that’s probably better every year than I give them credit for.

October 28 – @ N.C. State – 65% - The dreaded Thursday night game for fans. Thankfully, it’s not at Doak Campbell Stadium. FSU probably pulls this one out too.

November 6 – North Carolina – 75% – Agentgate will take its toll on UNC. The Tar Heels will also be banged up from playing in the ACC Coastal and facing LSU and Rutgers early in the season. At home and overall, the Noles pretty much own UNC historically. I see no reason for that to change in 2010, with a defensive unit that should have gelled by now and be much better than the 2009 edition.

November 13 – Clemson – 70% - The only school with a cheer that sounds like they forgot how to spell C-L-E-M-S-O……… N? Kyle Parker will make it tough on the Seminoles’ defense. Christian Ponder will have to go toe-to-toe in passing stats with Parker for FSU to win. I have a strong feeling that he will, and FSU prevails.

November 20 – @ Maryland – 85% – Ralphie boy is on his way out. The Terrapin looks like a cockroach. The best thing to come out of the University of Maryland is Bonnie Bernstein. B-squared is the only reason I’m giving the Terps a 15% chance to win this one. Noles roll.

November 27 – Florida – 45% – As a fan, I want nothing more than to have bragging rights over all of those annoying, self-righteous, smug Gator fans. Seriously, I know UF has won a bunch through the 00′s, but I’m sick of it. Too bad I won’t get the opportunity to feel better yet. UF is still better than FSU, even with Tim Tebow in Denver now. FSU will keep it close, but lose this one.

The Magic Number is 8

Based on my percentage points that puts FSU at 8.44 Wins. Since it’s absolutely stupid to talk about .44 of a win, I’ll round down to 8 wins, the Noles Magic Number for the season. Against a very tough schedule, FSU will win 8 games provided there isn’t some catastrophic injury to Christian Ponder or half the defense doesn’t get arrested. More than 8 wins this season means two things to me. The defense plays much better than anybody predicts and the special teams are fantastic. Dustin Hopkins will play a key role, and his accuracy from inside of 40 yards is a MUST this season.

Eight wins is a vast improvement for FSU over previous seasons. When the insanity of scheduling non-conference major schools ends in the near future, the win total will easily hit 10 every season. Jimbo Fisher has this team moving in the right direction I believe, but Seminoles will have to be patient.

Picking Actual Wins and Losses

I predict 8 wins and 4 losses. Who will FSU lose to? Based on my weighting, 3 choices are obvious, Oklahoma, Florida and Miami. Two schools are listed at 65%, Boston College and N.C. State, so according to my gut FSU will lose one of those two games. I’ll choose Boston College who I also predict, based on an easy schedule, will win the ACC Atlantic thanks to a tiebreaker with the win over FSU (6-2 ACC) and play for the ACC Title against Georgia Tech. Eight wins puts FSU in a solid bowl game with a bright outlook for 2011 and beyond. It’s a good time to be a Seminole Football fan!

What do you think?

Am I way off? Tell if me I’m nuts, dead on or way too pessimistic by leaving me a comment.