Redmill Blog

When Perfection Does Matter

info@redmillcommunications.com (Administrator) — Wed, 23 May 2012 10:49:14 +0000

While we often argue against the need for perfection, there is definitely a time and a place when it's required and any discussion about telcos should at least try to recognise this.

Although today we see many services as non-essential, just useful and, possibly, fun, it's easy to forget that telco networks deliver some fundamental services that can have a critical role to play in our lives.

There are reasons why telco networks have been engineered to try to achieve some level of perfection or at least to offer carefully calculated levels of performance and reliability. And, there are reasons why some services have to work 99.999% of the time.

Emergency services, for example. It's no good offering a 999, 112 or 911 service that only works for 50% of the time. While some services can work some of the time and still keep customers happy or eager for more, an emergency service simply has to work, all the time.

And it's only a few telcos that undertake to deliver this – typically, the incumbent, mobile network operators and a few competitors. OTT providers do not take that risk, as the consequences of failing to deliver the service can be significant. This means that telco network operators have certain obligations and requirements that are not shared by OTT competitors – something worth remembering when we criticise telcos for their lack of innovation.

They do some complicated, difficult things, that emerging competitors do not. The mentality of over-engineering comes from the obligation to provide services that can make the difference, quite literally, between life and death. Instant messaging doesn't quite fit that category.

Today, this creates a tension. There is contention between the need to offer universal service, emergency service support and so on, and the market imperative to offer attractive, innovative services that generate revenue. On the one hand, telcos are criticised for lacking innovation; on the other, they have regulatory pressures that force them to maintain certain services and promote a particular mindset.

But this does also indicate that the ability to offer such guaranteed capabilities is itself a service that can be monetised. It's not easy to deliver such reliability and service access: if innovation is to be found elsewhere, innovators should be willing to pay for the kind of service guarantees that only telcos can reliably deliver.

Really, we should recognise that telcos and OTT providers have different and often complementary skillsets. The emphasis on standards and engineering precision in the telco world can offer many advantages to those seeking to deliver services over those networks, but unwilling to invest in network infrastructure themselves.

What’s the Use of Half an Eye? #MWD12

info@redmillcommunications.com (Administrator) — Tue, 22 May 2012 10:41:00 +0000

This week, we're off to Dublin once again for the latest edition of TeleManagement World, or TMW as it is better known. We have a number of briefings and will be offering our views and opinions in due course. Ahead of the show, we had a briefing with Layer 7 Technologies, which rather set the tone for where we think one part of the industry needs to head.

One of our favourite topics is open APIs and third-party developer access. A sub-theme is the quest for perfection, or rather why that's a misplaced goal, as we suggested in a recent blog (although we are going to try to describe why we think perfection is sometimes not just desirable but essential in further posts).

In general terms, we believe strongly in the principle of continuous innovation. Companies such as telcos need to continue to innovate to stay relevant and to ensure that they are not diminished in the perception of their customers. The problem is, of course, that telcos have struggled to innovate in so many ways in recent years. And yet still they need to offer more and more, just to maintain their position, like the Red Queen. The question is, if telcos have been so singularly unsuccessful in recent years in delivering applications to consumers (beyond core services like voice, messaging and access), where will that innovation come from.

The standard answer is third parties in the Internet world. Open API access, in principle, offers a means to outsource this innovation to a willing community of developers. However, this development community has taken on an almost mythical status in recent years and telco-led initiatives to attract developers seem to have achieved little. At the same time, the Internet world has managed to find this community and continues to tap into it to fuel innovation. There are now more than 6000 APIs, at least according to industry tracker Programmable Web. Of these, more than 5000 are based on either REST or SOAP. Clearly, developers don't much care about the specific API messages; they care about the general model. These have largely emerged in the past three or four years – a period during which the telco industry has struggled to launch OneAPI.

But there are signs that things are changing. Dimitri Sirota from Layer 7 provided some great insight into why their telco customers are starting to offer access to SOAP or RESTful APIs via gateway solutions that aggregate and federate access to resources in networks. The interesting thing is that this a) shifts the burden for new application development towards a community with somewhat better credentials to understand consumer appetites for applications; and b) enables an environment in which the cost of failure is reduced.

This last point is instructive. If the cost of failure is high, the bar is set such that there are disincentives to actually launch new services – or, not to launch them until they have been perfected (thereby increasing development costs significantly and deferring any potential payback). But we know from the Internet world that services don't have to be perfect to be successful. Customers are interested in applications and services that offer utility and are prepared to accept a trade-off between utility and completeness. The expectation is that, if the service offers some value, it will improve and, ultimately deliver more.

There's a famous passage in "On the Origin of Species" in which Darwin discusses the utility of an imperfect eye. He explains that, some degree of light receptivity is better than none and that each incremental improvement can contribute to the evolution of better sight reception and hence to a more advanced eye.

It's a good argument, but it also has lessons for us here. We may have a particular service goal in mind, but we don't necessarily need to be able to offer that service right from the start. Services can evolve, step by step – and based on real customer interaction (acting as competitive pressures and selecting positively or negatively for services that are useful). What we need is an adaptive environment for innovation.

Such an environment consists of:

API exposure to telco capabilities;
Incentives to use them (developers care about value and utility, not about the specific format of an API);
Feedback mechanisms from a customer base; and
Low risks of failure (if something really doesn't work, throw it away and try it again).

With such conditions, telcos can enable innovation and enjoy the benefits of enhancing their network with richer services, regardless of whether they are offered directly, or indirectly via the development community.

In such an environment, half an application that does something is better than talking for years about how to enable such applications but doing nothing. 10% of an application that delivers some utility is better than nothing. Darwin was right: anything that confers a positive benefit can be better than nothing. And with the right developers acting as instruments of evolutionary change, applications can evolve and be improved. Failing applications will die, but die with less cost and fallout than ones that have been perfected and honed at huge cost.

And that's why we are excited about TMW and recent developments in the industry. Telcos may just be finally realising that they don't need to standardise everything, that they can go it alone and that there are relatively simple ways to reach out to developers who can enhance their network and leverage their assets. They may also be recognising that their assets are diverse and not necessarily what they thought – i.e. it's not just about voice and location any more, if it ever was.

All they need to do is make it worthwhile (don't try to take too much rent) and provide the infrastructure (deliver a platform). We have no idea what constitutes a successful service – who really does? But by leveraging technology such as that offered by Layer 7 and others, telcos can start out on a process of fostering and promoting evolution, which will, hopefully, lead to a flowering of innovation and adaptation.

#IMS Today

info@redmillcommunications.com (Administrator) — Fri, 11 May 2012 12:56:46 +0000

It’s been a few days since the latest edition of the IMS World Forum and this interval has given us chance to reflect. We’ve been following IMS since our foundation, but our principals have been involved with IMS initiatives since the early noughties.

It’s been rather interesting since then. We have had hype, despair and, from some quarters, ridicule. Some analysts have been only too quick to take pot-shots at IMS, for a variety of reasons. Others have, of course, been more supportive. And, there were times when the IMS industry needed some friends.

Our position has always, we like to think, been realistic. We aren’t in the numbers or forecasting game – we don’t publish subscription-based market sizing reports or make predictions. But we do undertake our own research and interviews to support our thinking and output. It became clear to us a few years ago, after extensive interviews with service providers that IMS was the only real game in town when it comes to session control and service delivery for networks with millions of subscribers. Since then, nothing has happened to change this view. We used to be able to discuss credible alternatives back in 2008 – there simply don’t appear to be any left now we have arrived in 2012.

There are a number of reasons for this. First, the industry has seen growing numbers of IMS deployments. Without question, if you are a tier 1 or tier 2 telco, IMS is the way to go. Personal prejudices don’t come into this equation: it’s now a matter of market reality.

Secondly, any alternative that is left in the market is much more risky than IMS. Whereas IMS was relatively untried five or six years ago, industry experience today enables vendors to point to deployment success and history that validates their propositions. And, of course, the major vendors aren’t pushing alternatives, so nothing credible has emerged. It seems strange to note, especially given how the debate has been framed in recent years, but IMS doesn’t seem like a risky option today.

Thirdly, VoLTE happened, or at least was standardised, providing fresh impetus to IMS and confirming its position, at least for mobile operators. If you are moving to 4G, then the industry has decided that IMS is critical. Finally, one thing that gets consistently overlooked by dissenting voices is the unique challenge of providing fixed and mobile telephony services. Yes, there are many cool new services that can be offered and, it’s true that OTT players offer more innovative applications.

But an equally important truth is that telcos have to meet somewhat different challenges. Some have to deal with universal access or service obligations, all have to deal with 911 / emergency services and Lawful Intercept regulations. Whatever you may think of IMS, these are inescapable facts and IMS has been designed to enable telcos to meet all such regulatory requirements and obligations. That is not to say that IMS is beyond criticism – far from it. There are many legitimate concerns. But the simple fact remains: it’s a done deal.

Based on our experience of the IMS World Forum, the IMS industry today seems to be in rude health. We heard from more operators about more deployments. As we noted back in 2009, it’s a matter of not if but when for most operators. The IMS World Forum continues to serve a great purpose in bringing together different stakeholders and encouraging debate. And the debate continues to evolve, as will the IMS itself.

#IMS Don't be Shy - Telcos Need to Embrace the Beta

info@redmillcommunications.com (Administrator) — Mon, 30 Apr 2012 09:43:45 +0000

Most people have probably heard of the classic satire "Dr Strangelove". Perhaps fewer will be aware of its subtitle – "How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bomb". I was reminded of this while listening to an interesting presentation from Alan Duric of Telio at the IMS World Forum in Madrid.

His message in relation to new services was simple: just deploy. Alan highlighted a wide range of application solutions that have been developed and deployed by Telio. Telio is well-known as a competitor to operators in Norway and other countries, and has many interesting services. As an OTT player, it might be thought that Telio is not particularly interested in IMS. Not so: Alan confirmed that Telio is likely to deploy IMS in due course, but not yet.

But when it comes to deploying services, he urged telcos to lose their caution and start more aggressively deploying services in beta mode. This is something we have been hearing about for some time. The classical telco model is to buff a service to perfection. Test, re-test and, for good measure, test again. Everything has to be just-so. But this approach has huge costs: it takes time, money and expertise to test to this level. OTT providers typically don't do this. They try to get to market as quickly as possible and run early-adopter trials, beta launches and so on.

While the services may not be perfect from day one, early market momentum can be critical in securing success. And, if services fail, there will have been less investment in their launch and refinement. And Alan wasn't the only operator speaker to emphasise this message – Larry Biziw from Rogers Wireless in Canada also spoke about "rolling beta" programmes, layering new features to solutions as you go.

Of course, some services do have to be perfect and there are some peculiar operator requirements and operational issues in co-ordinating service delivery and launch, but this isn't the case for everything and it's misleading to pretend that it is. Indeed, it's somewhat self-serving, as it provides an excuse for not doing something before it has even been attempted.

Operators are already challenged by OTT competitors. Everyone in the industry knows that it takes far too long to bring services to market – and I have seen countless presentations on reducing time to market in the last 15 years or so. The stars do not have to be perfectly aligned before a service can be launched. So why not lose a little of this caution and try to launch services on a willing public? It's time to learn to stop worrying about failure and be more daring. Don't be shy!

IMS World Forum: Awards, Briefings and a Market Update

info@redmillcommunications.com (Administrator) — Mon, 02 Apr 2012 11:25:13 +0000

The IMS World Forum is with us once again, taking place in Madrid from 24th to 26th April. Once again, we are delighted to be participating in the industry's leading IMS event.

This year, we shall be present in the analyst breakfast briefings which kick off the conference, as well as chairing the IMS Deployment Strategies stream on Day 2.

In addition to the normal case studies and presentations from operators and vendors, there is also the launch of the IMS Industry Awards. We are thrilled to be acting as part of the judging panel and will provide a full report after the event.

With so much happening in the IMS industry, it's going to be fascinating to be in Madrid to gauge the temperature and assess the current state of the market. IMS has come a long way over the last few years – let's see where it is now. Watch out for more insight soon.

Newfield Wireless' innovative proposition: how to discover your wireless network

info@redmillcommunications.com (Administrator) — Mon, 02 Apr 2012 11:22:42 +0000

We had many briefings during the last edition of Mobile World Congress in Barcelona. Among a number of standout-solutions and ideas, we were particularly impressed by the value proposition of Newfield Wireless.

The company offers an innovative way to monitor wireless networks in real-time, enabling MNOs to pinpoint trouble spots and identify solutions to improve network performance. The software, called "Truecall", generates accurate maps that indicate cell overshooting and areas of interference; locate dropped or failed calls; and understand demand density in the network.

Obviously, a clear advantage is the ability of Service Providers that deploy this tool to improve subscribers' experience, thanks to the drill-down capability to monitor individual call and data events.

There are several aspects in the management of mobile networks that will benefit from this (so far) unique value proposition. First, the fact that Truecall will provide migration and support for LTE networks that are emerging provides reassurance for the future to protect network investments and ROI. Secondly, being backward compatible with the current 3G standards, gives the ability to provide deep visibility in the network in order to generate RAN optimisation in cases where Circuit Switch Fallback (CSFB) is still needed. Finally, by providing the capability to generate reports on the key performance indicators of network elements and information by handset manufacturer equipment type.

Currently, Service Providers are struggling to reconcile the competing demands of investing for network innovation and the compelling need to save CAPEX and OPEX, due to revenue reduction arising from data usage. Any tool that can improve and optimise the behaviour of existing assets, by indicating, for example, which data customers are consuming the most bandwidth, or what foreign country code is called by the most subscribers in a particular region, is absolutely to be welcomed.

Cloud Net Summit: Why Don’t Enterprises Choose Carriers for Cloud Services?

info@redmillcommunications.com (Administrator) — Fri, 30 Mar 2012 11:41:44 +0000

At the recent Cloud Net Summit in London, there was considerable discussion regarding the role carriers and telecoms service providers can play in the provision of cloud services. One of the most noteworthy observations came from research by Current Analysis, which suggested that only 6% of businesses choose carriers as their “go-to” source for cloud services.

A number of reasons were advanced for this perhaps surprising conclusion, including the suggestion that carriers are perceived as having more voice expertise than data. It’s certainly true that most carriers come from a strong legacy business in voice, but it’s equally true that very few are solely dependent on voice today.

Perhaps more pertinent was another reason proposed – that carriers simply do not have the consulting resources to develop solutions for businesses. We know from previous conferences and research that some carriers have invested heavily in this area, but the findings suggest there is still some way to go.

Carriers have a unique set of resources and attributes that can enable them to deliver cloud services – or to carve out a role as a enabler to other service providers – but they clearly need to articulate their proposition more effectively.

Businesses want solutions that fit their needs. These can be complex and may involve multiple solutions. There isn’t a one-size fits all approach that can be usefully adopted. What carriers need to do is to ensure that they focus on two things:

A portfolio of tangible, flexible services that can be clearly understood by enterprises of all sizes; and
A clear proposition of the value that they can play in this role, both for end-user customers and other service provider partners.

Without a clear understanding of what’s on offer – and one that matches their needs, expectations and experience, enterprise users will continue to look elsewhere. Similarly, unless all stakeholders appreciate the value that carriers can offer, their role may be merely to support access to cloud services from other providers without capturing any appreciable share of the value.

As we have been proposing for some time, carriers have a clear ability to deliver a number of unique capabilities to support cloud services, such as end-to-end QoS, reliability, security and privacy. While many are aware of these capabilities, carriers clearly need to do more to build awareness among end-users and other service providers about their ability to offer something different – and better.

But while that’s necessary, it’s not sufficient to change enterprise perceptions. Carriers need to not only clarify their propositions, but to develop the resources to deliver them via consultancy teams who can work with customers to ensure that what’s on offer is understood and that it meets the evolving needs of all. If they don’t, regardless of the value that they can offer, they will be out-competed by more nimble players with the appropriate customer focus and orientation.

Point to Point in the last mile

info@redmillcommunications.com (Administrator) — Mon, 19 Mar 2012 11:04:20 +0000

Penetration of high-speed broadband over fibre varies considerably around the world. Some countries have been able to invest heavily in such schemes, supported by Government initiatives; in others, it's left to private enterprise; and in still others we find a blend of the two.

It's a complex area, but most commentators are agreed that widespread access to genuine high-speed links is likely to be crucial to economic development. The availability of high-speed broadband should already be a factor in deciding where to site office facilities, not just the availability of appropriate labour resources or quality of life metrics..

What's more, everyone is eager to avoid the advent of a digital divide caused by the economic uncertainty behind FTTC or FTTP programmes in rural or less populated areas. But there's no doubt that this will happen unless there are incentives in place to help encourage the spread of appropriate network technologies. We think that any enterprise in an urban area should be able to access the fastest broadband, and there's no reason why someone in a more remote location shouldn't have similar expectations. Equally, those cities and towns seeking to attract inward investment need to be able to highlight high-speed broadband, not as a differentiator but as a basic service.

In the UK, it's been widely reported that 4G trials could help provide that reach into the last mile to ensure that coverage is provided, but that may not be enough. While taking briefings at MWC, we looked at several backhaul solutions and it was clear that there is potential in using technology developed for backhauling mobile data and traffic to extend the reach of fibre networks directly to hard-to-reach premises.

This may not be news, but what was striking is that the economics of such deployments may be undergoing favourable changes. For example, Siklu has a solution that uses Band-E spectrum for high-capacity backhaul at multi Gb/s rates.

While originally conceived for backhaul in a mobile context, the Band-E spectrum can equally be applied for extending fibre networks into new locations or remote areas, without the headache of digging up the streets.

E-Band lies in the extremely high frequency bands from 71 to 76 gigahertz (GHz), 81 to 86 GHz and 92 to 95 GHz. These three allocations are the highest ever licensed by the FCC, for example. With 5 GHz of bandwidth available at 70 GHz and 80 GHz, and 3 GHz at 90 GHz, gigabit and greater data rates can easily be accommodated with reasonably simple radio architectures. Propagation characteristics are well understood and, although slightly worse than those of commonly used microwave bands, it's possible to achieve point-to-point link distances of several miles.

What's more, it's claimed that the cost of such spectrum is sufficiently low as to provide a compelling economic case. Siklu also highlighted how the cost of their solution provided lower TCO, potentially easing adoption.

We shall see. If correct – and early customers have been cited – then this is potentially extremely exciting for accelerating the penetration of true high-speed broadband. Although fibre deployments are progressing, it's still disruptive to dig up a road. If solutions are available to add another option to network delivery, in both urban and rural areas, then it will help not only those enterprises that need such services today, but also help ensure that there can be a closure – or at least narrowing – of the digital divide.

Face-to-face still counts

info@redmillcommunications.com (Administrator) — Fri, 24 Feb 2012 09:16:15 +0000

It's ironic that, working in the communications industry and with the plethora of tools now available to us, we still have many, many meetings. There ought to be a better, more efficient way of doing things. And, there is. But you still can't beat a face-to-face meeting to help really understand what people want and what they are offering.

Certainly, video communications and online collaboration tools can eliminate wasteful travel and create significant efficiencies – after all, hanging around airports, stations or being stuck on a motorway hardly constitute an effective use of time – but in the end, people like to meet people with whom they want to form a business relationship.

This point was well made at a recent briefing on VC funding that we attended in London. Both of the speakers made the point that, no matter how detailed the proposal from a company requiring investment, a fair proportion of the ultimate decision came down to the impression made by the aspiring entrepreneurs when they met the people with the money. Evidently, some VCs will know in five minutes if they want to invest in someone, showing how important the human capital part of an idea is to the resulting success of failure of the enterprise. Despite all the maths and projections, human interaction remains critical.

That was remarkably candid and extremely revealing. So much comes down to that face-to-face meeting – no wonder they are so valuable. It reminds us why both we and our customers are so keen to make the most of MWC. With so many people in one place, it's the outstanding opportunity of the year to meet actual and prospective clients, but it also reminds us how much of the hard work has to be completed beforehand. You can't just turn up at an event like MWC without having undertaken as much preparatory work as you can and pre-arranged as many meetings as possible. Everyone attends with his or her own agenda and catching their attention is difficult.

But it must be done, otherwise ROI from such an event – from both delegates and exhibitors – is likely to be less than stellar. That's why we have helped our clients create meetings, with a range of marketing programmes, campaigns and out-reach programmes. If you want help making MWC 2013 or other events a success, get in touch to see how we can help.

What's in Store at #MWC2012

info@redmillcommunications.com (Administrator) — Fri, 24 Feb 2012 09:12:32 +0000

Mobile World Congress is here again and already the rumours are flying. This time, they seem less about the technology and developments than the logistics. Will the public transport dispute be resolved and the strike averted? We think so, but the possibility that it may not is curiously entertaining. There is a certain irony that we have had several trouble free years in Barcelona and, just after the GSMA committed themselves to the city for another few years, this happens. Was it covered by force majeure in their contract?

We are still wondering what the GSMA's contingency plans are. Mysteriously, we are not to learn more until the weekend, which suggests to us that they are still being formulated.

Whatever can it be? A network of bicycle rickshaws, following the lines of the tube? Fleets of buses hired at great expense? Donkeys? We eagerly await the breaking news. We've used the bicycle ricksaw in the past and it's a great way to see the city – maybe they will charge a premium or be reserved for the VIP guests this year?

Perhaps as importantly, the weather seems to have turned at last and it may be somewhat warmer than in recent years. Moving to later in the month has turned out to be a welcome idea in so many ways!

Our team is attending and will be happy to meet. It's easy to get in touch, so please let us know if we can help while you are there. We have a number of customers attending this year and the run up has perhaps ben the busiest for us yet. We sincerely hope the conference is a success for them and for everyone else attending. We'll be reporting on our briefings and news in the coming weeks. Meanwhile, it's time to pack. See you in Barcelona!