For the full source data behind this post, hit the S&P/Case-Shiller website. For a more detailed explanation of how the Case-Shiller Home Price Index is calculated, check out their methodology pdf. Also remember that the data released on the last Tuesday of a given month is for the period two months prior (i.e. – December data is released in February).

Here are the basic Case-Shiller stats for the Phoenix area* as of January:

Sixteen of the twenty metro areas tracked by Case-Shiller saw a decrease in their HPI between December and January (one less than between November and December): Washington DC joined Phoenix and Miami with an increase. No data was available for Charlotte in January. Oddly, San Francisco had the largest drop at 2.5%.

Here’s a look at the latest local tiered data, back through 2000:

And here’s a closer look at the recent changes, with the vertical and horizontal axes zoomed in to show just the last year:

All three of Phoenix’s tiers rose in January. Month to month, the low tier was up 1.4%, the middle tier rose 1.2%, and the high tier increased 0.5%.

In this next chart, I’ve visualized the month to month trends of all twenty Case-Shiller-tracked cities. Green and above the horizontal axis if they were increasing in the month charted, red and below the axis if they were decreasing. I’ve excluded 2000 through 2004 since they looked largely the same as 2005 (mostly green).

Another gain here, with the best January showing since 2006, when 11 markets were increasing.

Here’s a chart of Case-Shiller HPIs for all the markets that Redfin serves:

Here’s our peak decline chart, in which we line up the peak Case-Shiller HPI value for each of Redfin’s markets, so we can see how long each market has been declining, and how much it has dropped from the peak.

Eight cities hit new post-peak lows in January: Tampa (not shown above) at 47.9% off peak, Atlanta at 37.4% off peak, Chicago at 35.9% off peak, Las Vegas at 61.6% off peak, New York at 25.3% off peak, Cleveland (not shown) at 22.4% off peak, Portland at 30.3% off peak, and Seattle at 32.4% off peak. The 10-city and 20-city composites both also hit new lows, both at 34.4% off peak.

Methodology: The Case-Shiller index tracks price changes in sets of homes of similar size and style to better determine changes in what people are willing to pay for the same home over time. If data is available from an earlier transaction for the same home, the two sales are paired and treated as a “repeat sale.” Repeat sales that are too far apart, sales between family members, lot splits, remodels, and property type changes (e.g. from single-family to condos) are excluded from the calculations. All remaining repeat sales are totaled together and weighted based on the time between each sale, then the data for the most recent three months is averaged together to create a given month’s index value (i.e. – September’s index represents the average of the data from July through September).

The three price tiers plotted in the charts below simply represent the top, middle, and bottom third of all sales, based on the initial sale price. In other words, if there were 3,000 sales in the three-month period, 1,000 of them would be in the low tier, 1,000 in the middle tier, and 1,000 in the high tier, by definition.

*[Case-Shiller defines Phoenix as the Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ Metropolitan Statistical Area, which includes all of Maricopa and Pinal counties.]

Below are the key points that demonstrate that for Maricopa County as a whole, but we’ve also broken down the housing market for the entire Valley area here, city by city and neighborhood by neighborhood.

Inventory continues to slide

Every time we think we’ve hit what must be the bottom of the inventory shortage here in Phoenix, the market steps in to prove us wrong. Inventory in March in Maricopa County was down another 3.9% from February, and 40.7% from the previous March. But that’s only part of the story. This time last year only 14% of the homes for sale were traditional sales instead of bank owned. Now we are up to 77% traditional sales. Banks have stopped putting homes on the market.

Just one look at the sale-to-list ratio on single-family homes tells us that buyers are really fighting for those few homes for sale here. The ratio on these homes was at a 12-month high, at 98.9%. As buyers make a run at every reasonably-priced home that hits the market, sellers aren’t finding a reason to budge from their asking price.

Blink and it’s pending

It’s not just that there are fewer good homes on the market, but they’re going under contract much faster. Of the homes sold in March, 42% were on the market less than 30 days, and they sold on average for 99% of the final list price, and 98% of the original list price. The remaining 58%, sold for an average of 94% of the final list price and 93% of the original list price. So even for the homes that took their time to sell, sellers were only dropping 6% of the price in negotiations with the buyer.

Prices gaining ground in the Valley

The good news is that, unlike most markets around the country that are also seeing a huge inventory shortage, the Phoenix area is actually acting like a functional real estate market! Prices here are continuing to adjust upward, based on the low inventory. Supply and demand are at play! The median sale price for a single-family home in Maricopa County in March was $140,000, up 5.3% for the month and 12% for the year.

But couldn’t that just be more high-priced houses selling, rather than prices rising across the board? It’s not! It turns out the price per square foot in Maricopa County is on a similar, but even even smoother skyward trajectory, meaning the price gains are truly across the board. Buyers really are trying to give sellers a reason to sell here!

Now that you know what the market is like in the Valley, check out one of our upcoming short sale classes on April 19 and April 26 or a home buying class on May 17.

Author of this Post

If you have questions or comments just leave them below or get in touch.

Marcus Fleming marcus.fleming@redfin.com Serving East Valley, Cave Creek and Scottsdale Homes Closed: 100+

1. HDR Photography

Finding a quality company to do HDR photos isn’t easy and its not always cheap, but the photos are significantly better and worth every penny. Below you’ll find two photos that show you exactly how much impact HDR can make on any photo. Take note of the colors that pop through the room and the detail behind the glass doors and the color in the kitchen.

If you want to know more about HDR Photography, here is a recent post about stepping up your home photos with HDR Photography.

Photo Example: Non-HDR vs. HDR

2. Go Wide, Wide Angle that is

The standard DLSR camera has a viewing angle of 74 degrees due to the small sensor built into the camera. Full frame (read: expensive) cameras have about an 84 degree viewing angle. Add a wide angle lens to the full frame sensor and you’re looking at 114 degree viewing angle. The extra 30 degrees you get with a wide angle camera lens is enough to make or break the shot. Here are some sample photos.

Photo Example: Point and Shoot Camera (left), Standard Lens DSLR (center), Wide Angle Lens (right)

3. Shoot from the Hip, Literally

The single most eye opening technique I ever learned was to shoot from the hip. When you are looking through the camera’s viewfinder its hard to see the difference in the photo, but once you look at the photos side by side you can see how a few inches can make a big difference. By shooting a little lower the photo looks more natural and balanced. Oddly enough it looks like you took the photo from a normal height.

Photo Example: Shot from Eye Level (left) vs Shot from Hip (right)

4. Photograph Like You’re Giving the Buyer a Home Tour

Lets say a home buyer knocks on your door and they ask to see your home that is for sale. Would you say “sure, just put on this blind fold so i can take you to each room and reveal each room one at a time!” Typical photos do just that, they show the home one room at a time and in a rather random order.

What you want to do is walk the buyer through the home, one room, one hallway at a time. Let the home buyer get a feel for how the home is laid out. For a home buyer, knowing the kitchen flows out to the great room could be a huge selling point.  Some home buyers want to know when they bring groceries in from the car they will walk straight from the garage to the kitchen instead of having to walk to the other side of the house to put their groceries down.

Don’t try to guess at the angles, just take the photos one room at a time and don’t be afraid to include the hallway in the photo or a photo of the hallway that shows how the bedrooms are laid out.

Photo Example: Showing the Home’s Floor plan

If you’d like to learn more, then join us for our Home Selling Class on Thursday!

Author of this Post

If you have questions or comments just leave them below or get in touch.

Marcus Fleming marcus.fleming@redfin.com Serving East Valley, Cave Creek and Scottsdale Homes Closed: 100+

Worst – Point and Shoot Photography

The point and shoot photography is the most common type of photography these days. Cameras are cheap and they take decent images for the day to day uses. However they are not designed to take photos of homes with dark corners and poor natural lighting. All of these cameras have a built in flash to help brighten the room but the flash is either not powerful enough to reach the furthest corner of the room which makes the first half of the photo bright and the last half of the photo too dark. Or the flash is too powerful and it washes out the picture leaving the room looking cold and dull.  Furthermore, these cameras are not designed to capture a wide angle which is vital when it comes to showing a home buyer how big your rooms are and how the house is laid out.

The photo below is very flat and muted. Through the window it looks like trees are dying outside and the room looks like its part of an old house that might need some updating.

Photo Example: Low quality, muted colors, dated look

Better – Good Camera, Used Incorrectly

Some agents are aware of the need for quality photos so they go out and buy a fairly expensive camera, but they don’t learn how to use it properly. The photos may look better but if they don’t take the time to learn how to use the camera the photos won’t do your home justice and they will make your home look average.

The image below is washed out due to an over powering flash. While the quality of the picture is higher than the previous image, the colors are incorrect leaving the room feeling cold and uninviting.

Photo Example: Flash creates a washed out and cold look

Best – Quality Camera, HDR processing

A quality camera doesn’t simply take better looking photos. With the proper camera the lens can be changed out and the sensors are larger which allow the camera to record far more information about the photo. It will also allow the camera to capture a much wider view of the room/home. Pair that up with some HDR techniques and the home buyers sitting online can get the feeling they standing inside your home, which makes it all that much easier to fall in love with your home.

The photo below uses a wide angle lens to capture the full size of the room, the room’s layout and the proper colors. The photo also shows an overall better composure and color balance which makes the home look newer, cleaner and more updated.

Photo Example: True perspective of the room, inviting and warm

HDR Processing How it Works

HDR or High Dynamic Range is the merging of several (6-12) photos together and then using software to enhance the specific elements of the photo (dark corners, windows).  The best use for this is with landscape photography, but the second best use is with real estate photography.

Using HDR will allow you to to have photos with an even exposure, color and warmth. The photos will look natural and will give the home buyer the feel they are standing just outside that room looking in.

Take a look a the photos below, you’ll see the photos go from super dark to super bright. The image in the middle is often the image your camera wants to “automatically” capture but in doing so it misses specific elements that you’ll want to enhance. For example. See how much detail you get from the window with the dark photos? The average photo will have the detail in the window “blown out”, which results in a really bright (and ugly) spot in the photo.

HDR Range of Photos

Combined Photo

Final Photo

HDR Gear

For anyone looking to do these photos on your own, I’ve provided a list of everything I use. If you want to do it right, you’ll need quality gear and truth be told it won’t be cheap. I’ve tried to get away with less expensive equipment, unfortunately you can see the difference in the photos.

Equipment List:

• Full Frame Sensor Camera: Canon 5D Mark II
• Wide Angle Lens: Sigma 12-24mm DG HSM
• Tripod: Any quality tripod with bubble levels does the trick

Software:

• Adobe: Lightroom 3
• Nik Software: HDR Efex Pro

Camera Settings

• ISO: 100
• Aperture: F11
• Shooting Mode: AV
• Exposures: Min 6, Max 12

If you have any questions, feel free to email me or comment below.

Author of this Post

If you have questions or comments just leave them below or get in touch.

Marcus Fleming marcus.fleming@redfin.com Serving East Valley, Cave Creek and Scottsdale Homes Closed: 100+

For the full source data behind this post, hit the S&P/Case-Shiller website. For a more detailed explanation of how the Case-Shiller Home Price Index is calculated, check out their methodology pdf. Also remember that the data released on the last Tuesday of a given month is for the period two months prior (i.e. – December data is released in February).

Here are the basic Case-Shiller stats for the Phoenix area* as of December:

Eighteen of the twenty metro areas tracked by Case-Shiller saw a decrease in their HPI between November and December (one less than between October and November): Only Phoenix (for the third month in a row) and Miami saw an increase. This month Detrioit beat out Chicago and Atlanta for the bottom spot, falling 3.8% in a single month.

Here’s a look at the latest local tiered data, back through 2000:

And here’s a closer look at the recent changes, with the vertical and horizontal axes zoomed in to show just the last year:

All three of Phoenix’s tiers rose in December. Month to month, the low tier was up 2.7%, the middle tier rose 0.7%, and the high tier increased 0.2%.

In this next chart, I’ve visualized the month to month trends of all twenty Case-Shiller-tracked cities. Green and above the horizontal axis if they were increasing in the month charted, red and below the axis if they were decreasing. I’ve excluded 2000 through 2004 since they looked largely the same as 2005 (mostly green).

Tiny improvement, better than a year ago, but worse than December 2009, when 5 cities saw an increase.

Here’s a chart of Case-Shiller HPIs for all the markets that Redfin serves:

Here’s our peak decline chart, in which we line up the peak Case-Shiller HPI value for each of Redfin’s markets, so we can see how long each market has been declining, and how much it has dropped from the peak.

Four cities hit new post-peak lows in December: Tampa (not shown above) at 47.5% off peak, Atlanta at 36.0% off peak, Las Vegas at 61.4% off peak, and Seattle at 31.9% off peak. The 10-city and 20-city composites both also hit new lows, both at 33.8% off peak.

Methodology: The Case-Shiller index tracks price changes in sets of homes of similar size and style to better determine changes in what people are willing to pay for the same home over time. If data is available from an earlier transaction for the same home, the two sales are paired and treated as a “repeat sale.” Repeat sales that are too far apart, sales between family members, lot splits, remodels, and property type changes (e.g. from single-family to condos) are excluded from the calculations. All remaining repeat sales are totaled together and weighted based on the time between each sale, then the data for the most recent three months is averaged together to create a given month’s index value (i.e. – September’s index represents the average of the data from July through September).

The three price tiers plotted in the charts below simply represent the top, middle, and bottom third of all sales, based on the initial sale price. In other words, if there were 3,000 sales in the three-month period, 1,000 of them would be in the low tier, 1,000 in the middle tier, and 1,000 in the high tier, by definition.

*[Case-Shiller defines Phoenix as the Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ Metropolitan Statistical Area, which includes all of Maricopa and Pinal counties.]

There’s an absolute frenzy of activity here in the Phoenix housing market, driven by an enormous and enormously-frustrating lack of inventory. Just over 11,000 homes are on the market right now in Phoenix proper. Compare that to more than 55,000 homes back in November 2007. While it seems to be leveling out, it looks like there are some things we’ll have to get used to in Phoenix:

• Sellers are in control: At nearly every price point in this market, there is more demand than supply. An offer at 5%-10% below list price most often won’t even command a seller’s counter offer. The prevailing mindset among new buyers is that they’ll be able to name their price and there’s nothing further from the truth and we’re starting to see prices take this into account.
• Speed is the key: If the comps we review show their dream home is priced appropriately, it is time to write the offer.  If not, there will be another offer before us, usually within 24 hours. Savvy buyers comb Redfin.com religiously for new homes hitting the market, and will contact us immediately to tour and make an offer. Sometimes, the offer precedes the tour and hours can make a difference. Multiple offers are the norm.
• The double-shock of selling: Seller are having a tough time accepting that their home’s value is sometimes less than 50% of it’s pre-recession value. They are equally shocked to hear a home in a popular area of town that is priced appropriately right now will likely have multiple offers, sometimes within hours of the listing hitting the MLS.

Overall, the data we’re seeing lines up perfectly with what I’m seeing and hearing from clients: There are great opportunities here in the Phoenix market; Just be prepared to act quickly and offer realistically.

Inventory Remains Near 12-Month Lows

The story in Phoenix in January was about prices jumping, but sellers not being convinced to list their homes for sale. The number of homes for sale in Phoenix was up 2.6% from December, but still down 40.5% from January last year, to 20,962.


Given the pace of sales and the number of homes on the market, it would take 3.21 months to sell through the current inventory, a term known in the industry as “months of supply.” In a market balanced between buyers and sellers, we’d expect to see 5-6 months of supply, so this represents a slight advantage for sellers in Phoenix, but a more balanced market than we’ve seen since March 2011, when there were 3.23 months of inventory on the market.

Sales drop by 16% in January

We’ve all heard that real estate is seasonal, and one look at the chart of the number of home sales reinforces that. There were 6,536 sales in Maricopa County, representing a sharp decrease of 15.5% since December 2011, but up 2.7% since January 2011. This is largely due to the fact that not many people are out looking for homes during the holiday season, and so there are less people ready to buy early in the year.

Maricopa County Median Sale Price Up 1.6% for the Month

The median sale price for a single-family home in Maricopa County was $130,000 up 1.6% from December 2011 and up 4.1% year over year from January 2011. The per-square-foot price was also up 1.4% month over month, to $73, and up 9.0% year over year.

Redfin’s housing market data combines public records, local multiple listing services, for-sale-by-owner and other verified sources. The data is validated by Redfin analysts to ensure it is comprehensive and accurate. Redfin publishes these reports each month on or around the 10th of the month, for the previous month. As a tech-focused broker, Redfin is the only company with access to this level of data.

For the full source data behind this post, hit the S&P/Case-Shiller website. For a more detailed explanation of how the Case-Shiller Home Price Index is calculated, check out their methodology pdf. Also remember that the data released on the last Tuesday of a given month is for the period two months prior (i.e. – November data is released in January).

Here are the basic Case-Shiller stats for the Phoenix area* as of November:

Nineteen of the twenty metro areas tracked by Case-Shiller saw a decrease in their HPI between October and November (the same as between September and October): Only Phoenix saw an increase, for the second month in a row. This month Chicago bumped Atlanta out of the bottom spot, falling 3.4% in a single month.

Here’s a look at the latest local tiered data, back through 2000:

And here’s a closer look at the recent changes, with the vertical and horizontal axes zoomed in to show just the last year:

Atlanta’s low and middle tiers both rose in November, but the high tier fell. Month to month, the low tier was up 2.6%, the middle tier rose 1.4%, and the high tier decreased 0.1%.

In this next chart, I’ve visualized the month to month trends of all twenty Case-Shiller-tracked cities. Green and above the horizontal axis if they were increasing in the month charted, red and below the axis if they were decreasing. I’ve excluded 2000 through 2004 since they looked largely the same as 2005 (mostly green).

Just five months ago, all twenty cities saw month to month gains. Now just one is not the red.

Here’s a chart of Case-Shiller HPIs for all the markets that Redfin serves:

Here’s our peak decline chart, in which we line up the peak Case-Shiller HPI value for each of Redfin’s markets, so we can see how long each market has been declining, and how much it has dropped from the peak.

Four cities hit new post-peak lows in November: Tampa (not shown above) at 47.4% off peak, Atlanta at 34.8% off peak, Las Vegas at 61.1% off peak, and Seattle at 31.0% off peak.

Methodology: The Case-Shiller index tracks price changes in sets of homes of similar size and style to better determine changes in what people are willing to pay for the same home over time. If data is available from an earlier transaction for the same home, the two sales are paired and treated as a “repeat sale.” Repeat sales that are too far apart, sales between family members, lot splits, remodels, and property type changes (e.g. from single-family to condos) are excluded from the calculations. All remaining repeat sales are totaled together and weighted based on the time between each sale, then the data for the most recent three months is averaged together to create a given month’s index value (i.e. – September’s index represents the average of the data from July through September).

The three price tiers plotted in the charts below simply represent the top, middle, and bottom third of all sales, based on the initial sale price. In other words, if there were 3,000 sales in the three-month period, 1,000 of them would be in the low tier, 1,000 in the middle tier, and 1,000 in the high tier, by definition.

*[Case-Shiller defines Phoenix as the Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ Metropolitan Statistical Area, which includes all of Maricopa and Pinal counties.]

Redfin just released a major upgrade to our photos in Phoenix. As you may have noticed, photos of Phoenix area homes on Redfin were previously rather resolution-challenged. No more! Allow me to demonstrate, using a photo of one of our listings in Chandler at 2104 W Cheyenne Drive.

Old

New

But wait, the new photo is so big, it doesn’t even fit on this page! I had to crop it down just to show it to you here. Click the pic to view the glorious, full-sized, high-resolution version. If you think you can handle it, that is.

So what are you waiting for? Start searching Phoenix-area homes and enjoy their new big, beautiful photos on Redfin!

For the full source data behind this post, hit the S&P/Case-Shiller website. For a more detailed explanation of how the Case-Shiller Home Price Index is calculated, check out their methodology pdf. Also remember that the data released on the last Tuesday of a given month is for the period two months prior (i.e. – October data is released in December).

Here are the basic Case-Shiller stats for the Phoenix area* as of October:

Nineteen of the twenty metro areas tracked by Case-Shiller saw a decrease in their HPI between September and October (vs. eighteen from August to September): Only Phoenix saw an increase. Wait, Phoenix? Yup, Phoenix. Atlanta fell the most in October (again), falling a whopping 5.0% in a single month.

Here’s a look at the latest local tiered data, back through 2000:

And here’s a closer look at the recent changes, with the vertical and horizontal axes zoomed in to show just the last year:

All three of Phoenix’s tiers rose in October, with the low tier taking the biggest gain. Month to month, the low tier was up 1.5%, the middle tier rose 0.4%, and the high tier increased 0.4%.

In this next chart, I’ve visualized the month to month trends of all twenty Case-Shiller-tracked cities. Green and above the horizontal axis if they were increasing in the month charted, red and below the axis if they were decreasing. I’ve excluded 2000 through 2004 since they looked largely the same as 2005 (mostly green).

Just four months ago, all twenty cities saw month to month gains. Now just one is not the red.

Here’s a chart of Case-Shiller HPIs for all the markets that Redfin serves:

Here’s our peak decline chart, in which we line up the peak Case-Shiller HPI value for each of Redfin’s markets, so we can see how long each market has been declining, and how much it has dropped from the peak.

Two cities hit new post-peak lows in October: Atlanta at 33.2% off peak and Las Vegas at 60.7% off peak.

Methodology: The Case-Shiller index tracks price changes in sets of homes of similar size and style to better determine changes in what people are willing to pay for the same home over time. If data is available from an earlier transaction for the same home, the two sales are paired and treated as a “repeat sale.” Repeat sales that are too far apart, sales between family members, lot splits, remodels, and property type changes (e.g. from single-family to condos) are excluded from the calculations. All remaining repeat sales are totaled together and weighted based on the time between each sale, then the data for the most recent three months is averaged together to create a given month’s index value (i.e. – September’s index represents the average of the data from July through September).

The three price tiers plotted in the charts below simply represent the top, middle, and bottom third of all sales, based on the initial sale price. In other words, if there were 3,000 sales in the three-month period, 1,000 of them would be in the low tier, 1,000 in the middle tier, and 1,000 in the high tier, by definition.

*[Case-Shiller defines Phoenix as the Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ Metropolitan Statistical Area, which includes all of Maricopa and Pinal counties.]

Since so much of the Phoenix market these days consists of bank owned homes and short sales, Marcus asked that we also pull the local data excluding distressed inventory. Here’s what the numbers look like if you only consider non-distressed homes:

Homes listed in winter still sell faster than those listed in summer or fall. A greater percent of homes listed in winter eventually sell than in other seasons, and homes listed in winter sell closest to their original list price.