jawaharlal nehru speech

Jawaharlal Nehru’s broadcast to the nation on August 15, 1948 is noteworthy because the words he uttered then hold considerable importance for our contemporary political life. Excerpts from that address are being reproduced here. Better late than never

Let us not forget where we have failed or where we have erred. For our failures and errors have been many. Some of these are obvious enough, but the real failure has been a failure of the spirit and a falling away from the high standards set by the Father of our Nation, under whose wise guidance we had struggled and marched for over a quarter of a century. He taught us that worthy ends could only be achieved through worthy means, that ideals and objectives could never be divorced from the methods adopted to realise them. He had told us to cast out fear, for fear is not only ignoble but is also the parent of hatred and violence.

Many of us forgot this lesson and fear gripped us, fear not of some distant adversary, but fear of one another, and evil deeds followed in its train.

The Master who guided us and inspired us is no more. We have to shoulder the burden ourselves now and the first question that we have to put ourselves is this: Do we stand by his teaching and message or do we stray into new paths? I want to tell you that this year of hard trial has convinced me more than ever that if India is to prosper and grow in stature, as she must and will, it will be through adherence to that message and teaching. I know I am feeble and have often proved unworthy of India to whose service I had pledged myself so often. But however unworthy we may be of India, we have still something of the strength that the Master gave us. That strength comes not only from him, but from his message, and so today I pledge myself anew to the service of the motherland and of the ideals that Gandhiji placed before us.

All of us talk of India and all of us demand many things from India. What do we give her in return? We can take nothing from her beyond what we give her. India will ultimately give us what we give her of love and service and productive and creative work. India will be what we are: our thoughts and action will shape her. Born of her fruitful womb, we are children of hers, little bits of the India of today, and yet we are also the parents of the India of tomorrow. If we are big, so will India be, and if we grow little-minded and narrow in outlook, so also will India be.

Our troubles during the past year were largely the result of this narrowness in outlook and pettiness in action which is so foreign to India’s great cultural inheritance. Communalism threatened to crush the free spirit in us, the communalism of the Muslim, of the Hindu and of the Sikh. Provincialism came in the way of that larger unity which is so essential to India’s greatness and progress. The spirit of faction spread and made us forget the big things that we had stood for.

We have to find ourselves again and go back to the free India of our dreams. We have to rediscover the old values and place them in the new setting of a free India. For freedom brings responsibility and can only be sustained by self-discipline, hard work, and the spirit of a free people.

So let us be rid of everything that limits us and degrades us. Let us cast out fear and communalism and provincialism. Let us build up a free and democratic India, where the interest of the masses of our people has always the first place to which all other interests must submit.

Freedom has no meaning unless it brings relief to these masses from their many burdens. Democracy means tolerance, tolerance not merely of those who agree with us, but of those who do not agree with us. With the coming of freedom our patterns of behaviour must change also so as to fit in with this freedom.

There is conflict and there are rumours of greater conflict in India and all over the world. We have to be ready for every emergency and contingency. When the nation is in peril, the first duty of every citizen is to give his or her service to the nation without fear or expectation of reward. But today, I do not wish to speak of conflicts and wars but rather of peace and cooperation and I want say to all the nations of the world, including our neighbour country, that we stand for peace and friendship with them. The only war that we want to fight with all our might is the war against poverty and all its unhappy brood.

Regions of North-western South Asia

Proposed National Boundaries

I am starting this new series on “how to reorganize the South Asia politically” so as to have maximum possibility of peace and prosperiety. Division on lines of religion has been proven wrong. Base of my analysis is ethnic character of the India-Pakistan-Afghanistan-Nepal-Sri Lanka-Bangladesh-Bhutan. This analysis is based on data collected over the time and my understanding of south asia, everybody is welcome to put in their views as comments. Later I plan to bring it out as free ebook.

And one more thing, I am an Indian, so perspective and reason of all this exercise is to understand how to benefit India in particular and all the people of south asia in general in current turbulent political situation.

The above image is little preview of my plan for north-western part of Indian subcontinent. I will post plan for whole region in upcoming posts. keep reasoning, for the sake of India.

This post is by Ratnakar Sadasyula, our guest contributor. Ratnakar is an IT professional. Please welcome him on POR.

The BJP’s spectacular rise in the 90’s was due to the enthusiastic backing of the younger sections of the population, during that time. The BJP had a large support from the younger educated professionals, the college going students, and people in the 20-40 age category. While the older generation still voted for the Congress, a major part of the BJP’s support base came from the youth. For a Generation, fed up with the shenigans of the Congress, the failure of “champagne socialism” and “sham secularism”, the BJP seemed the best alternative. The BJP’s right wing Hindutva ideology had large scale support among the urban educated middle classes, while its espousal of a capitalist economy enthused the youth. The reason why youth, including myself, supported the BJP in large numbers was its no nonsense stance on internal security and the country’s safety. Many ex Defence officers joined the BJP, impressed by the party’s discipline, its decorum. While there essentially was not much difference between Congress and BJP on economic policy in the 90’s, the difference was pronounced on other issues, like relations with US, more friendly policy with Israel, Uniform Civil Code, repeal of Article 370, which did really attract the youth.

When the NDA Government conducted the nuclear tests in 1998, the people hailed it. In an Indian foreign policy characterized often by cowardice and vote bank politics, the BJP’s act was seen as a means of standing up to the world. And Kargil, 1999, swung the pendulum towards BJP fully. It was not just the victory in the war, it was the way Jaswant Singh, traveled around the world, putting India’s stand clear, and virtually isolating Pakistan in the international forum. Even Pakistan’s regular friend China, could do nothing in this regard, as it lay totally exposed before the world. It was on such a goodwill that the NDA stormed into victory, and with great hopes. However the Kandahar fiasco, disappointed many BJP supporters down right. The sight of Jaswant Singh escorting the terrorist leaders, proved to be a real bitter pill to swallow. Neither did the long stand off after the Parliament attack, where forces were deployed on border, but just idled doing nothing. And the final straw was the way the NDA govt, responded to the brutal killing of the BSF jawans by BDR soldiers, at the Indo-Bangladesh border. The sight of the dead BSF jawans, being carried like animals on a pole, provoked outrage, and left many die hard BJP supporters disheartened. The youth who voted for the party in large numbers especially felt left down, when even a small loser nation like Bangladesh, showed the middle finger to us. Nor did the BJP do anything for the Kashmiri Pundits, who were still living in the same miserable conditions.

All these added up to many people losing faith in the BJP. One thing needs to be kept in mind, while Hindutva did play a role in the BJP’s growth, it was an issue have a limited shelf time. A vast majority of the youth, who supported the BJP during the 90’s, did so because of its stand on economic issues, internal security and foreign policy. When they saw the BJP not really delivering on those promises, it really disheartened them. No they did not shift to the Congress, but could not bring themselves to vote for the BJP. Nor were the state BJP governments offering any exemplary governance either, when it came to corruption, sycophancy, nepotism, the BJP began to resemble the Congress B team.

The UPA rule presented many opportunities for the BJP to capture the youth vote bank. The agitation by AIIMS students in Delhi against Arjun Singh’s reservation gimmicks, the bungling in the dismissal of P.Venugopal Rao, the AIIMS head, the UPA’s ineffective management of internal security and most importantly 26/11. One reason why the BJP managed to win over the youth was the way it handled the anti Mandal agitation, many of its leaders then tacitly supported the agitation, and this led to the youngsters becoming die hard supporters of the party. At the same time, the BJP managed to woo the tribal, OBC vote bank by actively promoting leaders like Sushil Modi, Uma Bharti, Kalyan Singh in the OBC segment and Babulal Marandi, Jual Oram in tribal areas. In this way the BJP managed to attract both the upper caste, as well as the OBC, tribal segments without resorting to gimmicks like reservation. In sharp contrast the BJP leadership handling of the 26/11 aftermath, was totally ham handed. Nothing irked people more than the flying visits made by the BJP leaders to pay condolences, even while the security forces were fighting the terrorists. On one hand, the security forces and people were locked in a life and death situation, and then watching these visits on TV was totally jarring. Again after 26/11, when there was a huge rally against the attacks in Mumbai, it would have made sense for the BJP leadership to support it. But M.A.Naqvi’s insensitive comments about “lipstick powder wearing” women and some of the local leaders dismissing it as a “Page 3” rally, did not go down too well. Sure there were people of that kind, but the rally was a spontaneous outbreak of anger against the Govt’s mishandling of the situation, and what could have been a great opportunity for the BJP to channel the people’s discontent, and project itself as an alternative was totally lost.

And what really made the youth dissociate itself from the BJP has been the pub attacks in Mangalore and the antics of the Shri Ram Sene. I have seen many friends of mine, who were openly critical of their tactics, and mind you most of them are not the pub going, Westernized kind. Again the BJP’s response on this issue has been wishy washy, sort of “Yes its bad, but you see they asked for it”. Now one may debate about the merits and demerits of Valentines Day or pubs till heaven come, but one thing the BJP needs to keep in mind. Youngsters don’t really like being told what to do, they hate being disciplined. And lets face it, that’s a stage all of us have been through as youngsters, and many have matured out of it. You indulge in moral policing, in effect you are alienating the youth. No ifs and buts there, youngsters just don’t like it. The BJP needs to stop playing the role of a Super Dad, and be a friend towards the youth. Lets face it the bitter truth is that the BJP has no youth leader, who has Rahul Gandhi’s appeal, so the best thing to do would be to reach out to the youth. The youth have issues like employment, higher education on their mind. Why do so many youngsters queue up in front of the US embassy every day seeking to study abroad? Or work abroad? Why do talented young people in India have to study in some B Grade university in Australia, and face racist attacks? Trust me the moment the BJP comes up with a plan to revitalize higher education, its going to receive enthusiastic support from the youth. If the youth is veering towards Rahul Gandhi, its not because of his cute dimples, its because they feel that he could understand their concerns better. This is what the BJP needs to do immediately.

So, central government has banned CPI maoist, the main outfit of maoist and naxalite activities in India. It is a much awaited action and finally government woke up when these so called revolutionaries had taken over a large part of Lalgarh. Anyways better late than never. But it should not be stopped here. Government should start an all out campaign and mind you military/para-military campaign, not a police one to flush out all the naxalites from whole country, so that a right environment of development can be created in naxal affected areas. It is the best time to do so in last 60 years and looks like universe has conspired to give us that opportunity. Government must seize it with open hands and ruthless force. Here are the reasons why it is the best time to start an all-out flush out campaign against maoist and naxalites.

1. After the heavy defeat in LokSabha elections main stream communist parties are busy taking care of their in-fighting and putting an all out effort to keep alive in politics in this ever increasing anti-communist world. So they can’t create hoop-hulla or can’t stall the process in parliament either. So no help from inside India.
2 Naxalites in India had two main sources of arms and bombs etc. One of them completely out of picture now. Yes, I am talking about Prabhakaran and his tigers. So no help from south.
3 Second main source of arms is ISI and pakistani militants who provide support across the borders of Bangladesh. They are relatively concentrating their efforts on afghan border right now. Besides pakistan government is in no position to sponsor naxals as they have problems of survival in front of them. So not much help from east & west either.
4 Main source for man power came from Nepali maoists. But they have taken route of politics now and busy establishing themselves as reliable politicians. They have dismantled their armed wing also. So no help from north.
5 China is busy capturing world in aftermath of recent recession and devoting all its energy in economy. So not to expect anything big from big brother.

In this way maoists and naxalites are on their own right now. And we have most stable government in last 20 years. Public support has already been there. So what else can fall in line to get a better opportunity.

But to make a foot-note, government should also try to open a side channel to bring them in main stream politics and take care of problems of poor in those parts of our country. Hope all will be best for this great country of ours.

It looks like just yesterday when I changed my status message in GTalk, copying from someone else of-course “Congress in LokSabha and BJP in ShokSabha”, friends laughed and I was amused. Now it has been more than a month and BJP is still in ShokSabha. They have once again ducked the process of self-scrutiny and they are busy doing patchwork. In-fighting is in open, letters are being passed, leaders accusing each other, president trying to be a hero, oldest leader yet not leaving the posts and what to say more once a cadre based highly disciplined party is being pulled in thousand directions. Let us understand the plight of BJP, there are three major types of leaders right now in BJP.

Old-Timers: One of my friend said “The whistle blower as they are already out of race”, the lost generation of BJP. These are the leaders now in there 70s and obviously not going to be a contenders for top post in next election as congress’s reliance on Rahul Gandhi is going to push BJP towards a younger leader. Arun Shouri, Jaswant Singh, Yashwant Sinha are aiming their frustration towards strategists of this election as it was their last chance and party blew it. These leaders have nothing to loose now, so attacking party functionaries openly. We can just say to them, “Hard luck dudes”

Drawing-Room Strategists: This is the group virtually running the show for last 7-8 years now. Arun Jaitely, Sudhindra Kulkarni, RaviShankar Prasad are the faces you see on TV debates and interviews. They can not possibly win a single seat for the party, but so called polished face of party. When party wins the election, they get the credit and when it loses, it is collective responsibility. Bravo friends, for showing us how to fool democracy. If BJP wants to revive itself, they have to curb the wings of this group and let mass leaders take charge of party. This group should be restricted in functions and should be made accountable as in a company.

Hindutva-Mass Leaders: These are the people who get the votes. They win the state elections, they do development work, they are the mass leaders. Modi, Rajnath, Yedurappa, Shivraj Singh, even Varun Gandhi. Some part of media is trying to project that Varun Gandhi show cost party votes. But if we look closely it was a positive factor only in terms of votes. People who votes for BJP, mostly are Hindutva supporters. Reasons of defeat were not in Hindutva, but in economy. Thank God that in national executive meeting Rajnath accepted that party is not going to leave hindutva just because of this debacle.

And where does RSS fits in all this? RSS is been always in favor of mass leaders as against the drawing room politics. RSS wants BJP to pursue Hindutva and be a party with difference again. Let us see what it can do.

It is a situation of disaster for party as it will be out of power for 10 years in a row. So it better get its act together and do a long term planning than to do a patchwork. It should make perfectly clear where it stands on economic, political, social, religious issues. Then only expect people and more importantly its own cadre to believe in it.

My first short story: comments are most welcome (based on true incident)

She smiled ….. it was more of a giggle, a lone giggle, something when you want to say “yeh pagal ladka bhi nah ” with her one hand covering her face like in those old Madhuri Dixit posters. She smiled and world stopped for whole 5 seconds. Literally for him, metaphorically for you if you have never experienced that feeling, where you are running from polluted city, tall buildings towards a beach or a snow filled mountain but couldn’t just see it and suddenly at a moment it comes in front of you.

He was so happy for next 15 minutes that he forgot to look at that beauty again, drawn in deep happiness, making his mind to take his next step in that not so Delhi-ish part of Delhi, near Anand Vihar bus station, which is more of a UP city than Delhi in rang-roop-chaal-dhaal. It was not the first time in that hot summer day, when he had such jaw dropping experience. Earlier that day when he opened his eyes due to incoming rays of 7′o clock sun, after a 4-5 hours okayish sleep in AC sheetal bus, the first thing that came in front of his eyes was not muddy streets of passing-by Aligarh city or pretty pathetic face of share market trader sitting next to him. It was a creation of God, on which He also must be feeling pride. Not to overstate the facts, as is his habit, he said to himself, “This is the most beautiful girl he has ever seen in his 21 years of life.”

She was not like those “modern models brigade” or that “punjabi make-up ki dukaans” which are very common feature of Delhi. She was like someone you put in a picture and look at it for days, and you would not remember a thing about this damn world. Standing there, she was asking that sleepy trader to shift a bit and give her place on a 3-seater side. In her orange salwar-suit over her snow-white type body, a cute smile on her face, she made the worshiper of beauty clueless and senseless for few seconds. Our protagonist was busy looking at that beauty for next 10 minutes, when that stupid trader started falling over her in his sleep, irritated … she signals protagonist to help her in placing that sleepy head at its place … protagonist, dumbed down by beauty did so, but till then it was a bit late and she moved 4-5 rows back to sit with her bhabhiji.

Now for next 2 hours he turned back to look at her …. total 23 times …. 23rd one was with that giggle …. 23, yes he counted. Everytime he looked, she looked back …. sometimes more that 4 seconds of attraction barrier of eye contact. (if you have a eye contact of more than 4 seconds with a person without any verbal interaction, this means that person likes you, unless you are wearing your shirt upside-down :p). So, at 23rd time, it was almost Delhi in that trip form Kanpur to Delhi of his. The first thing that came to his mind was last night discussion with a friend, who is otherwise an almost perfect person, but a little weird in girl matters. That friend was very much attracted towards a beautiful girl in a mall but could not muster the courage to go upto her and talk, even after constant push by him. Friend told him that it is very difficult to go and talk with such a girl.

So, our protagonist decided to give luck a try and rehearsed some opening lines in his mind. He knew that it is not even 5% probable that traditional girl from UP would talk to him. But, he thought “what the hell, keep the bloody statistics out of picture”. Bus stopped, he got down, waited a few minutes for girl, girl arrived then conversation went as follows:
He: hi
She: (putting her bag on floor and with a big smile) hi
He: Are you from Delhi?
She: No
He: Oh, then Aligarh?
She: No, Vrindavan near Mathura, Delhi just to meet my brother.
He: Really! my home is in Mathura. My father is blah-blah-blah
She: yes, I have heard about him.
He: Where in Vrindavan?
She: blah blah
He: So, what a fortunate coincidence, I met a person from Mathura in Kanpur-Delhi bus
She: (smiles) I saw very first minute you looking at me
He: Oh, sorry for that, if you felt awkward, but you know, you are so beautiful that I could not resist
She: (giggle) oh, you think so.
He: What is your name?
She: so and so
He: I would like to meet you sometime, if it is ok with you, in Delhi, in Mathura, wherever you like.
She: ok.
He: let me give you my phone number
(opens notebook and pen, writes the number, in between her bhabhiji came down from bus)
Bhabhi: (to girl) what is going on?
She: just talking
Bhabhi: why? lets go.
He: excuse me, one minute (tries to give slip with mobile number to her, she extends her hand, but bhabhi grabs that slip)
Bhabhi: what is this?
He: phone number
Bhabhi: why would she call you?
He: I want to meet her.
Bhabhi: why?
He: arre, I liked her, that is why.
Bhabhi: You will see a girl in bus, and start liking her?
He: not fully, but to fully understand and like her, I want to meet her.
Bhabhi: This is no way of talking with girls
He: (irritated) then you tell me, what is the right way.
Bhabhi: (threw away the slip) She does not want to talk/phone you. now you go away
He: she doesn’t look like saying so.
She: (giggle, bhabhi furious)
He: ok, if you want to contact, I have told you my home address, find me, bbye
She: bbye
He, she, and that stupid bhabhi walked away in different direction and the group of around 10-15 onlooker auto-drivers dispersed……

The problem:

Whether it is Mr. Rajdeep sardesai on CNN-IBN showing his concerns for performance of Congress party or NDTV news reporters stating their clear preferences for Left in their news items, all are sources of worry for neutral functioning of media. Media which is by its very name, not supposed to favor one party or another, seems to loosing its way. All the media persons we are discussing here are very senior reporters and thinkers as such. But problem to separate fact from the personal values and preferences is looming large on media as a whole.

It is not the first time that we are talking about media neutrality. In the era of print media also, this problem was there, but I think immediate attention is needed in time of TV channels as
1. TV channels have/ have potential to have larger reach to masses.
2. TV reporting is more assuring to viewers than readers of a news paper hence can be more misleading also.
3. News papers are essentially read by educated class, whereas TV news is watched by everyone alike.

This is like controlling the thought process of entire nation. It can not be permitted, at least the privilege given to media to have first hand information in every situation should not be misused to propagate one particular side of any story.

The solution:

So, when watching a news item on TV, viewers should be told clearly, what is the fact (hard fact) and what is personal views of a reporter. The mixing of two is quite frequent in modern TV channels. (remember old Doordarshan news, they were boring, but still facts only) I know that it is hard, almost impossible to separate a person’s own views from his/her presentation, but some efforts should be made.

It should be left on the viewers to interpret the news in their own way. Even if any channel agrees with the interpretation or not. Though I know that huge uneducated or educated-numbs are there in Indian society, who can not interpret the news by their own or can interpret in a very wrong manner. But that is democracy dear, triumph of mediocracy!

A very traditional and working solution to this problem is used by print media
- use of editorial page. Whole news paper would be hard fact (ideally) and personal views, ideologies of editors would be posted in editorial page. This way reader is free to agree or disagree from views of editor and still can use the news paper as a source of information. Similarly news channels can start a “fact-only-news-hour” in prime time and rest of the time they can show/discuss whatever they want. It is their money/mind/manpower after all.

But please do not misuse the privilege given to media by government and society and trust shown by masses for personal ideologies. This is one of the many reasons people are getting attached to personal blogs like POR than news channels. Hell, we propagate our ideas but we do tell everybody that it is personal view, you are most welcome to disagree.

Now it is nothing but the truth that India is a big country and to give representation to all sections of society, we have to accept the multiparty system. Coalition politics is natural corollary of multi party democracy. Many countries have tradition of coalition politics, we just have to look beyond US and UK for the definition of democracy. For example, in this election the verdict is fractured and no single party is even close to form a government on its own. But polity hates the vacuum, so some government has to be formed. We can not push country into another very expansive election.

That is where post-poll alliances and coalitions come into the picture. And this is not a bad thing at all. Actually it is a better system than two party system. As in two party system there are only two opinions/options, now we have as many voices as we want. We can have a wider representation of people in this process. Our MPs now do not need to bind by policy of a big party. They have choices. If we have had two party system, then all those views have to be accommodated in two streams, but all of them still would have been there, just not that much vocal.

So, it is a high time that we accept …. no no … embrace the multi party coalition system of our country. Though I know that it is not the most efficient system. But you can have only one – freedom or convenience, it is the most basic natural rule of this universe. We choose freedom.

So, the results are out and it is exact opposite to what this blog predicted. It is a major win for congress, in every state and every part of country. All other major alliances are decisively defeated. Congress says it is a vote for development and for its crown prince Rahul Gandhi. He did revive congress in UP as promised.

Still my biggest sympathy is with BJP, which is the party I voted for. A nationalist party. It is a loss of face for BJP.
But friends, There are times in history of a nation when all seem lost and looks like wrong forces have won the final battle. But dear friends, it is just a process, which goes on and on. 5 years may be significant time period in life of a man, but in life of a nation (that too a nation like India) is just a flickr of eye.

The time after defeat is not for grief and blame-game. It is the time to introspect and start preparing to come out as winner in next battle.

Though hopes are shattered and nightmares are prevailing, the dawn will surely come. It is not the first black day of Indian history, we survived and fought back. Let us do that again.

Tell us what do you feel, comment!

This election has posed a very big question for intelligentsia of this country. Are we having 30 or so state-wise election in place of parliamentary elections? The fact and reality points towards this as

1. No major national issue. Though there was some talk about terrorism, economy, but come on guys all of us know that not more than 10% people voted based on these considerations.
2. In era of coalition post poll alliances are formed based on state-wise situations of a party. Maya vs Mulayam, Jaya vs Karuna, Lalu vs Nitish, Mamta vs Left are main factors, not any ideology.
3. Both major national parties are way below magic figure of 272. and none is going to get more than 30% of total votes. Even in states where they are in main fight, their regional leaders are more important than any national figure. Modi in Gujarat, Shila in Delhi, Shivraj Singh Chauhan in MP are main face, not Advani or Sonia.

So the main problem of this fragmentization of indian polity is that holistic approach is missing and there is a fear that in near future any leader might prefer regional benefit over national benefit. It got me worried.

But if we ponder closely then it will turn out to be a triumph of the democracy. Democracy is “Representation of everyone’s aspirations while making policies”. And if a normal person connects himself with local issue more than any national issue then it should get representation in national polity. In this way it is the triumph of democracy, but not necessarily the best thing for whole society.

This is where role of political parties, media and intelligentsia of country comes in. It is their responsibility to make common people aware of national issues. So, I call for highlighting important issues related to larger problems than your street light and hand-pump of your locality (like environment, water security, soil contamination) in next election. So for next 5 years (or less than that ) all of us should work towards educating common people of country for this purpose. Political education never stops, not for you, not for me. It is to make democracy work for good of all, though it is working anyway.
Comment, what do you think should be part of such national agenda.

EVENT OVER, UPA WON, NDA/3rdF/4thF LOOSE. See the results here and Join the debate here

So after a month long elections and all of us arguing which state will go which way, we are planning to use a new tool coveritlive and start the live telecast of results, we request every one to contribute and participate.

We have already got the setup done and we have around 5 panelists who are going to update the reults in live time starting from 6.oo AM IST on results day and hope to carry it on till we get the results of the last seat.

Click Here to set your reminder and login to the screen. if anyone want to participate as panelist please drop in an email to centerofrightcv@gmail.com for invitation as a panelist

We have folks from Offstumped led by yossarin and myself who have already signed up as panel members.

Let us try this out . Please click on the link and you can set your reminders on the same. Another 60 hrs to go.

Image courtsey to Gaurav. Read Pre-poll predictions by Promise of Reason (NDA212, UPA175) and statewise analysis by Promise of Reason readers

Now when the Indian junta has spoken their views through that small PPPing machine, we all are waiting for the 16th May to see whether all this political gimmickry is of any use or we are going to face another election in few months due to fractured verdict. The most important battle for the top political space of India is going to be fought after results are announced. Yeah, this is a sad fact of democracy, but that is why Indian politics is what it is, fun, raw, pragmatic and ever evolving. Let us consider what all scenarios might emerge post 16th May (Between, FYI, I voted first time in my life on 7th May, went to my home 150 Km just for this purpose, in between final exams, now that was a good decision.   )
I will use my early prediction as far as the seats are concerned. That is NDA 210-220, UPA 160-180, and rest as can be seen here.

Option1: Manmohan Singh: UPA 170, Fourth front 35 (almost UPA), Amma front from Tamilnadu 30 (in advance of dismissing Karuna government in TN), outside support from Left 35 (to block NDA) and some smaller parties.
If this happens, it will be a very unstable government as Left will be ready to leave anytime. A minority government as in 1991 Rao gov.

Option2: Rahul Gandhi/Some other Congress person acceptable to Left: Same formation, but Left inside the government.
Very unlikely that left joins the government, but Left will ask to change our beloved sardar ji with someone else to save the face.

Option3: Sharad Pawar: or for that matter any dark horse, with the support of UPA, Left, fourth front, BJD, and outside support of Amma/Mayawati.

Option4: Mayawati: Mayawati with the support of NDA, TDP+TRS, Amma front, and some other smaller parties. It would be interesting to see whether NDA/BJP will join this government or just an outside support, which will make it very unstable.

Option5: Advani: NDA 215, Mayawati 30, Amma front 30, TDP front 20, and some other smaller parties. It is most likely option according to me and most stable also. Now the important thing to watch would be concessions, BJP have to make for Maya and Jaya support.

My prediction is Option 5, option 2,  Option 3, Option 1, Option 4 in decreasing order of probability. But as all of us know, India is a surprising country, so be prepared to see any surprise after May 16th. What do you think is most probable scenario?

This is my prediction about how things are going to turn out in west bengal:

1. Coochbehar: Toss up ( Trinamool- AIFB)
2. Alipurduar: RSP
3. Jalpaiguri: CPI(M)
4. Darjelling: BJP
5. Raiganj: INC
6. Balurghat: Toss up
7. Maldaha Uttar: INC
8. Maldaha Dakshin: INC
9. Jangipur: INC
10. Baharampur: INC
11. Murshidabad: Toss up (INC- CPIM)
12. Krishnagar: Trinamool
13. Ranaghat: Trinamool
14. Bongaon: Trinamool
15. Basirhat: Trinamool
16. Barasaat: Trinamool
17. Barrackpur: Toss up
18. Dumdum: CPI(M)
19. Kolkata Uttar: Toss Up
20. kolkata Dakshin: Trinamool
21. Mathurapur: Trinamool
22. Diamond Harbor: Trinamool
23. Jadavpur: Toss Up
24. Joynagar: RSP
25. Howrah: CPI(M)
26. Uluberia: Trinamool
27. Srirampur: trinamool
28. Hooghly: Toss Up
29. Arambag: CPI(M)
30. Ghatal: CPI
31. Tamluk: trinamool
32. Kanthi: Trinamool
33. Medinipur: Toss Up ( CPI- Trinamool)
34. Jhargram: CPI(M)
35. Purulia: AIFB
36. Bankura: CPI(M)
37. Bishnupur: CPI(M)
38. Bardhaman Purba: CPI(M)
39. Bardhaman- Durgapur: CPI(M)
40. Asansol: CPI(M)
41. Bolpur: CPI(M)
42. Birbhum: trinamool

default toss up is CPIM-Trinamool.
I feel most of the toss ups will be won by left.
LEFT: 15-23, Trinamool-INC : 18-26, BJP: 1.
Most Likely outcome: LEFT 21, Trinamool-INC: 20, BJP: 1.

This song just said, what I am singing in my mind for 5 years now, just didn’t knew the right words

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RJpAoUMEbWA

Sarfaroshi ki tamanna ab hamare dil me hai
Dekhna hai zor kitna bazu-e-kaatil me hai
Waqt aane de bataadenge tujhe e aasmaan
Hum abhi se kya batayen kya hamare dil me hai

Oh re Bismil kaash aate aaj tum Hindostaan
Dekhte ki mulk saara kya tashan, kya chill mein hai
Aaj ka launda yeh kehta hum to bismil thak gaye
Apni aazaadi to bhaiya laundiya ke til mein hai.

Aaj ke jalson me Bismil ek gunga gaa raha.
Aur behron ka wo rela naachta mehfil mein hai
Haath ki khadi banaane ka zamaana lad gaya
Aaj to chaddi bhi silti englison ki mill mein hai

Sarfaroshi ki tamanna ab hamare dil me hai…
….kya batayen kya hamare dil me hai

(from movie Gulaal by Piyush Mishra-actor-singer-writer)

Based on feedback received from the ground in some states as well as newspaper, TV reports, web blogs and discussions during the 3 phases of “India Votes 2009”, my state wise estimate is given below. I would request all readers to give your valuable inputs also.

Phases I-II were certainly advantageous to NDA. There were some setbacks to the alliance during Phase-III in the states of Karnataka and Gujarat. Overall the 3 phases has put NDA ahead.

But the alliance has little to consolidate upon in the subsequent 2 phases, which may be limited to small gains in Himachal, Western UP, Haryana, and Delhi. It should now focus on increasing the losses of UPA by either cutting down UPA votes, strategically transferring its votes to non UPA parties especially in TN and WB and finally restricting its losses in Rajasthan and Punjab. In fact if BJP helps Left restrict its losses in WB and Kerela, it would be an advantage to NDA as it would directly affect UPA numbers.

1. West Bengal – TMC-INC alliance would be in for a shock in their strongholds of Kolkata and its suburbs. There is a deep sense of anger in Kolkata and its adjoining districts over the NANO fiasco, which the CPI(M) is using to the hilt. The city and its adjoining suburbs would vote against UPA in a big way leaving them high and dry.

Seats in the Western part (Purulia, Jhargram, Bankura, Midnapur, Asansol) and Central parts (Bishnupur, Ghatal, Birbhum, Bardhaman, Bardhaman East Arambagh, Durgapur, Uluberia, Joynagar) are Left citadels since 1977 (even in 1984 during INC wave). Whenever INC did well, it was mainly due to the seats in Kolkata and its neighboring districts, which is still regarded as swing seats. Singur and Nandigram would affect the Left in the Southern districts (Tamluk, Kanthi, Mathurapur, Diamond Harbour) only and not the entire state as being projected by the media. Sources reveal lot of money is being paid to local dailies and channels of Kolkata, by the UPA, to project the vulnerability of the Left.

INC had won 6 seats in 2004 on its own. But very few people know that there was a tacit understanding between the INC and Left on the ground to defeat the NDA. Pranab Mukherjee was instrumental in this understanding, which explains why the Left immediately chose to support the UPA after the 2004 polls. The deadly arithmetic (INC-Left) was instrumental in NDA blanking out in the State barring 1 seat (Mamata Banerjee). In fact only after this understanding did Pranab Mukherjee decide to fight polls, probably for the first time since he joined politics in the 60s.

In 1999 (during the Vajpayee wave), Pranab Mukherjee had nearly forged a tacit unbeatable and unimaginable alliance in West Bengal; BJP-TMC-INC. But it was sabotaged by Mamata Banerjee. Had the alliance fought together, it would have won 26-28 of the 42 seats in the state considering the votes polled by the parties in 1999.

Voters of West Bengal are broadly split into Left [CPI(M), CPI, RSP, FB] and non Left (INC, TMC, BJP and other parties). A stronger BJP would help the Left in the state this time as it would split the opposition votes, especially in southern districts. What is also not known to many people is that this time the tacit understanding is between the CPI(M) and BJP in the ground. BJP is helping the Left by putting up strong candidates in tossup seats. Wherever there is a 50:50 chance for both alliances (Left and INC-TMC), BJP has put up strong candidates. For eg. In Kolkata North where Md Salim of CPI(M) is pitted against Sudip Bandopadhay of TMC, BJP has fielded Sri.Tathagata Roy, who is also quite popular in this area. This would wean away lot of Hindu voters traditionally voting for TMC/INC. In turn CPI(M) cadres have been found supporting BJP candidates in the seats of Krishnanagar and Dum Dum, which was won by BJP in 1999. BJP has good chance in Darjeeling and Krishnanagar seats.

State Left leaders have also given a muted response to the support extended to BJP by GJP’s Bimal Gurung (enemy of the Left) in the hills, other than making periodic complaints to EC. In fact, CPI(M) supporters were not allowed to go near the polling stations in the hills.

I feel that the results would be : INC = 3-5, TMC = 8-10, BJP = 1-2 (or 3 although unlikely), Left = 26-28.

1. Maharashtra – Ground reports suggests NDA doing extremely well in Mumbai-Thane (11 seats), and partially well in Marathwada / South Maharashtra (18 seats) regions, which went to polls in the 3^rd and 2^nd Phases respectively. These are the areas where NDA was wiped out in 2004. In fact seats like Sangli. Kolhapur, Satara, Ahmednagar face anti incumbency this time. Coastal belt (Raigarh, Ratnagiri, Maval) is a toss up with slight advantage to UPA.

My take is NDA = 18-20, UPA = 12-14 in these 3 regions of Maharashtra having 32 seats.

On predictions given in the blog titled “Promise of Reason – Pre poll prediction 2009”, I am not saying that the author is wrong. But if UPA still manages to hold on to its 2004 tally as per predictions given; means that UPA must have swept Vidharba in the 1^st Phase in addition to sweeping Northern part of the state (Nandurbar, Raver, Jalgaon, Dhule etc) in Phase-II. Only if UPA manages 10-11 seats (out of 16) in two regions, they would be able to get the projected tally of 23 seats. It also means that the much touted “BSP factor” is a big flop in Maharashtra.

I accept high MSP of cotton, good rains coupled with loan waiver has helped UPA to gain advantage in Vidharba but the big question is whether it would be a total sweep. Most of the field works for opinion polls in the state were carried out during 1^st – 15^th of March, 2009. During that time BJP-SHS was in its lowest ebb with Thackeray making overtures to Pawar and RJD/SP/LJP had not split from UPA. The overall opinion in the country was in favour of UPA then. Moreover, names of candidates were not released by most parties. In fact, my predictions in the blog “9 Northern state pre poll prediction by raja” were based on similar feed backs given to me. I had projected NDA = 21-23, UPA = 25-27 during that time. Things have considerably changed in the ground level since then, especially after Pawar’s flip flop and flirtations with 3rd front. Incidentally, Lok Satta has predicted UPA = 21, NDA = 27 after Round 3.

I also feel that the results would be : UPA = 19-21, RPI = 01, NDA = 26-28.

1. Uttar Pradesh – Please DO NOT write off Mayawati. I expect her to get around 26-28 seats in the Eastern and Central belts (Phases I-III) out of 48. In fact, Mayawati’s strength lies in the silent dalit voter, who stands steadfastly behind her even though her governance has been dismal. Dalit turnout was quite high in all 3 phases till now.

During the 2007 UP assembly polls, 23% of booths were declared sensitive and 15% hypersensitive; total 38%. Majority of them were in rural areas, especially with high dalit population. BSP share was around 48% in these polling stations. Data was obtained by filing an RTI application. It was also obtained that 81% of booths, in which the BJP was leading and 63%, in which SP was leading, were declared normal. Mostly sensitive / hypersensitive booths are not visited / interviewed by Media personnel on polling days, due to security reasons. They mostly interview voters from the “normal” booths thus overlooking the actual picture. This also happened during 2004 in which, SP led in 42% of the sensitive / hypersensitive booths, BSP in 33% and BJP way behind in 17%.

Yes. BJP is doing better than 2004 as upper castes are voting for the party unlike in 2007 assembly polls, due to Varun Gandhi issue. BJP had won a paltry 4 seats in Eastern and Central UP in 2004, which may go upto 9-11 this time. But surprisingly INC is also doing quite well in the seats bordering Amethi / Rai Bareilly, especially among minority voters, disgruntled dalits. But how much of it would get translated into seats is to be watched out for. SP would be the biggest loser and is expected to get 8-10 out of the 48 seats in Phases I-III.

Overall, even though I’m not sure about Western UP, I feel results would be : BSP = 37-39, SP = 18-20, BJP+ = 18-20, INC = 5-7, Others = 0-1.

1. Madhya Pradesh / Chattisgarh – No change from my previous blog post.

A highly divided opposition makes the task of BJP quite easy. Leaders of INC are busy squabbling among themselves leaving its cadres directionless in both states. Anti incumbency against sitting MPs is steadily gaining ground in both states but INC is unable to capitalise. Had INC put up suitable candidates and presented a united face, they would have won around 15-18 seats in these 2 states. But this is not happening on the ground.

My guesstimate for MP : NDA = 22-24, UPA = 5-7

My guesstimate for Chattisgarh : NDA = 8-9, UPA = 2-3

1. Assam – No change from my previous blog post.

Incumbent government is in extremely bad shape with a huge anti-incumbency against both State and Centre. Adding to its woes is the recent bomb blasts and the emergence of AUDF, which is eating away minority votes in large chunks. AUDF has allied with the Left/NCP thus damaging the prospects of INC further. BJP has stitched up a smart alliance with AGP/AGP(P) and is getting stronger day by day. INC sources fear that heavy weights like Santosh Mohan Dev may also bite the dust this time.

My guesstimate for Assam : NDA = 11-12, INC = 0-2, AUDF/NCP/Left = 0-1

1. Orissa – Ground reports are quite ominous to both BJD and BJP. It is an INC sweep in Western and Southern Orissa. Tribal areas have switched loyalty to INC for the first time since 1996. Coastal Orissa is an advantage BJD but not substantial. BJP is still carrying the baggage of anti incumbency of 10 years of BJD-BJP rule and is losing substantial votes in Balasore, Bolangir, Deogarh, Keonjhar, Kalahandi, Kandhamal areas. Christians are voting strategically against BJP this time. In fact voting %age of minorities is very high in both phases. Ground level reports suggest INC getting near to the half way mark in the state. BJD allies (Left, NCP) will blank out.

BJP’s strategy in Orissa was to ensure defeat of BJD instead of INC. It is a fact that INC is a divided house in the state and even if they win, infighting will start immediately after nomination of the CM.  Moreover, as INC is winning by default and not by popular mandate, anti incumbency would catch up very fast on the party; their leaders are known to be very corrupt and non performing. BJP expects this factor would work to its advantage in the next round of polls and BJD would become like JD(S). BJP is giving importance long term strategy over short term gains.

My guesstimate for Orissa : INC = 11-13, BJD+ = 6-8, BJP = 2-4

1. Bihar – Situation is fluid. NDA has swept first 2 phases. My take is NDA = 19-21, RJD+ = 5-7, INC = 0-1, in these regions having 26 seats.

3^rd phase was a toss up – too close to predict. Ground situation has changed. INC cadres have been advised by their central leadership NOT to go for the kill in the 3^rd phase and to lie low. They know too well that a weak RJD-LJP does not augur well for UPA especially when 2009 polls are going down to the wire and each seat would count in the final tally. Moreover, INC has little / no support base left in these areas and has failed to get any support from the upper castes and minorities here unlike in the first 2 phases. Further, INC feels that they have sufficiently dented Lalu’s hold on the M-Y factor and Lalu would be forced to give due importance to the party in future. RJD-LJP has already raised the white flag in the battle with INC and has withdrawn all candidates in Delhi in favour of the party. Phase III may give a split verdict. Phase IV would be advantage NDA. Watch out for Patliputra seat from where RJD supremo is fighting.

Overall, I feel results would be : NDA = = 26-28, RJD+ = 11-13, INC = 1-2.

But I make to one request to every one in this blog. PLEASE DO NOT write-off Lalu Prasad. He may lose this election but he can be back with a vengeance. Remember 1999 lok sabha polls – Lalu Prasad had lost his seat to Sharad Yadav by 30000 votes. His party got a measly 7 seats out of 54 in undivided Bihar even after allying with INC and CPI(M). The caste arithmetic was getting more and more against him, with the dalits rallying behind NDA as Ram Vilas Paswan was in JD(U) and Muslims beginning to vote for NDA as their rivals did not have any “Gujarat” to harp upon. OBC and Yadav votebase was also splitting. In spite of having his back to the wall, he came back in the 2000 assembly polls with a bang, surprising his own bitter critics and supporters.

Another fact on the ground; JD(U) is also keenly watching the performance of INC in these polls. If INC manages to increase its vote share to around 10-12% and wean away substantial minority votes from RJD, it is a matter of time that JD(U) would ditch BJP. Once it does so, LJP would follow suit and Nitish Kumar would call for early Bihar assembly polls by end-2009, with a formidable and unbeatable JD(U)-INC-LJP alliance commanding around 50-50% of popular vote.

1. Jharkhand – Huge anti incumbency against the incumbent Government but the ground level is getting more and more complex. Surprisingly RJD is doing well in 2-3 seats (Palamau, Rajmahal and Chatra) as most of the Independents in the assembly are rallying behind RJD, thus complicating the scene further. JVM is cutting down NDA votes and UPA is facing hostility from disgruntled JMM leaders. As a result there is no clear sweep for any alliance. Clear feedback is not coming from sensitive booths. Like in UP, media has visited “normal” polling stations only and extrapolated the results. Advantage is definitely with NDA. Had NDA allied with JVM and JD(U) given ticket to Sri.I.S.Namdhari, it would have been complete sweep. Dhoni’s brother campaigning for BJP in Ranchi has not helped the party and Subodh Kant Sahay (INC) is having the last laugh. Shibu Soren (JMM), Arjun Munda (BJP), Karia Munda (BJP), Yeshwant Sinha (BJP), Fukran Ansari (INC), Chandrasekhar Dubey (INC), Babulal Marandi (JVM) are also leading the race but hiccups remain. Other seats are tossups. Overall this state is too close to call.

My gut feeling is that the results would be like : NDA = 6-8, UPA = 3-5, RJD+ = 1-3, JVM = 1, Ind. = 0-1.

1. Gujarat –Quite a few setbacks have been reported by BJP party workers in Central and South Gujarat. Central Gujarat is reporting an INC sweep this time and is holding to its performance in North Gujarat. No “mau ka saudagar” controversy this time to help BJP. Candidate selection for BJP has been the undoing for the party. Selection of Dipak Sathi against Bharatsinh Solanki (INC) from Anand, C.R.Patil from Navsari has not gone down well with Modi’s core middle class voters. Similarly selection of Prabhatsinh Chauhan from Panchamahal, who had been accused of misappropriation from a co-operative bank, is weighing down heavily on the party. It was very surprising that Modi chose caste over development this time, which even his popular voters are questioning.

INC has selected its candidates carefully this time. Though they are putting up candidates in all 26 seats, they are concentrating on 19-20 seats only. Break up with NCP is not having any bearing on the results.

ST voters in Central Gujarat are very unhappy with BJP as they feel they were used by the party during 2002 riots and are being dumped now. The temple demolition drive carried out by the state has also ruffled some of the core voters of Modi. They allege that Modi did not touch roadside darhgas during the drive.

I would also reiterate what I had written in my earlier pre poll prediction. Recession has forced down industries and job losses are becoming a poll issue. One panchayat leader of a village in Surat area belonging to BJP, had candidly expressed the ground level is getting alarming and was becoming similar to the late 80s when a lot mills closed down, which ultimately led to the decline of the INC in the state. There is an undercurrent building against Narendra Modi as people feel that the state government is not doing enough to prevent job losses especially in North Gujarat and Surat belts. Central Gujarat may go to INC like in 2007. Surprisingly Nano is a non-issue in Gujarat, even though BJP is trying to make it one.

My guesstimate for Gujarat : INC = 11-13, BJP = 13-15.

1. Haryana – Huge anti incumbency against sitting MPs in the northern part (Ambala, Kurukhetra, Sirsa, Karnal). Bhiwani is a fight between Kuldeep Bishnoi (BSP) and A.S.Chautala (INLD) and Faridbad / Gurgaon are toss up seats after delimitation. Infighting is also hurting the party in these seats. But I have not got any ground reports from the state and my predictions are based on local media reports and discussions with NDA/UPA workers of other states.

I feel that the results would be : UPA = 4-5, NDA = 5-6.

1. Himachal – Honeymoon period for the BJP is still continuing with the opposition in tatters. If BJP works hard, it may be a clean sweep for the party.

I feel that the results would be : BJP = 3-4, INC = 0-1.

1. Punjab – Tytler-Sajjan controversy has done little to alleviate the Badal clan’s travails as the urban areas are rising in revolt against the Akali rule. The battle for Bhatinda where Badal dynasty and Phulkian dynasty (House of Patiala) are pitched against each other, would be a cliffhanger with slight advantage INC. N.S Sidhu is on a sticky ground in Amritsar with his Siddhuisms failing – O.P Soni being the frontrunner in this seat. Sidhu is not getting support from the traditional Akali strongholds and locals allege that he spends most of his time in attending “Laughter challenge” programs instead of his constituency. Jalandhar seems to be a cakewalk for INC with NDA not even campaigning seriously in this seat. State CM, Dy CM, DGP police and Chief Secy all being Jat sikhs has sent out a wrong message to urban Bhappa sikhs, Hindus and other Sikh-Hindu mixed practitioner groups who feel marginalised. In other words state would witness an INC sweep.

I expect the results to be like : INC = 8-9, BJP = 1-2, Akalis = 2-3

1. Jammu & Kashmir – No change from 2008 assembly poll results. Amarnath controversy would give BJP 1 seat in Jammu.

My guesstimate : INC = 2, NC = 2, BJP = 1, PDP = 1

1. Delhi – Only after the Tytler-Sajjan controversy has BJP got its act together. But I guess it was too late by then. BJP workers are still demoralized and the party is clueless on how to counter Sheila Dixit. Giving Sajjan Kumar’s brother ticket for outer Delhi has soothed a lot of ruffled feathers in the INC camp. However Tytler is still sulking, which may affect INC in that seat. LJP’s withdrawal of candidates in favour of INC is also helping the party. BSP factor is not working. Muslims, dalits are still favouring INC at the hustlings. Overall it is an advantage INC.

My guesstimate : INC = 4-6, BJP = 1-3

1. Uttaranchal – Khanduri-Koshiyari WWF is spoiling the chances for BJP. UKD is tacitly supporting INC to defeat BJP in Almora, Garhwal and Nainital seats. Resignation of Munna Chauhan would also affect the party in Tehri. B.S.Rawat’s position in Garhwal is also sticky with anti incumbency catching on with the MP. In fact after joining BJP, he had just scraped through in 2007 by-polls with the help of postal ballots.

My guesstimate : INC = 2-3, BJP = 1-2, BSP = 0-1

1. Rajasthan – BJP giving a ticket to K.L.Bainsla is unfortunately backfiring. Meena votes are consolidating behind the INC due to the above although the Meena strongman K.L.Meena is standing as an independent candidate. Gujjar votes are unfortunately getting split as some of the community leaders feel let down by K.L.Bainsla; at the same time Sachin Pilot is pulling away some Gujjar votes. Had BJP limited K.L.Bainsla to campaigning for the party only, such consolidation of Meena votes would not have taken place. Upper castes are divided with slight advantage to BJP and minorities are rallying behind INC. Unfortunately after the resignation of the BSP MLA’s the Mayawati factor has been severely dented and it is being perceived as a corrupt party. Anti incumbency has caught on sitting MPs of both BJP and INC. In fact, heavy weights like Sis Ram Ola (INC), Pusp Jain (BJP), Jaswant Singh Bishnoi (BJP) are also in trouble in their respective constituencies.

My guesstimate : INC = 14-16, BJP = 9-11

1. Andhra Pradesh – I would go by most blog, media, and newspaper reports predicting a TDP+ sweep in Telengana and some losses for the INC in the other regions. Based on various newspaper reports (both pro and anti BJP) and various blogs, discussions, opinions in the web, I guess that the situation in AP is similar to 2004 where 1½ months before the elections everyone was predicting a TDP/BJP sweep, whereas the ground level dramatically changed in such a short span to give the UPA a landslide win. Similarly this time till mid March’09, the incumbent INC was in the driver’s seat, predicted to win around 27-30 seats. But as campaigning progressed, TDP/Left slowly gained the upper hand.

Overall the picture would be : INC = 15-17, TDP+ = 21-23, Left = 1-3, PRP = 0-2, BJP = 0-2.

1. Karnataka – The Outlook magazine description of the state is quite apt – “Yeddy-Steady-Go”. State has given a saffron sweep in North, Central Karnataka. It is advantage INC in Phase II in old Mysore, Dakshina Kannada (courtesy Sri Ram Sene) and Udupi-Chikamagalur regions. Deva Gowda is winning Hassan. Bangalore is giving a split verdict unlike a BJP sweep last time. Despite all odds Ananth Kumar is winning South Bangalore. Bangalore central would go the INC way this time as after delimitation the minority votes are as high as 31%. JD(S) has put up a weak candidate against INC in this seat. In Bangalore Rural constituency JD(S) candidate Kumarswamy (son of Deva Gowda) is holding an edge as INC is tacitly supporting him here. Bangalore North is a tossup.

One thing is for sure. BJP cannot sit back and take things for granted in the state. Anti incumbency is building up on the party as it has very little to show in terms of achieving development, especially in the Coastal, Mumbai Karnataka and Hyderabad Karnataka regions. This would be catastrophic for the party in the 2013 assembly polls.

Overall the picture would be : BJP = 16-18, INC = 8-10, JD(S) = 2-3

1. Tamil Nadu / Pondy – Lanka issue or no Lanka issue. State would vote on predicted lines – this time an AIADMK+ sweep. This has been a hallmark of the state politics since 1970s. Power shortages, DMK and MK’s sons’ goondagiri, water shortages are the main issues this time and then the Lankan issue, which is an icing on the cake. Moreover, the rainbow alliance is with Jayalalitha this time. Only hope for BJP is the Kanyakumari seat – courtesy its alliance with Sarath Kumar; but it is an uphill task. Left would do well – courtesy rainbow alliance.

My guesstimate : AIADMK+ = 26-28, Left = 3-5, DMK = 5-7, INC = 3-5, BJP = 0-1

But dear readers; please do not be under the impression that AIADMK would jump into the NDA bandwagon post poll. For Jayalalitha, TN is more important as she knows very well that chances of her becoming PM are negligible. DMK is wholly and solely dependant on INC support in the state assembly. If DMK fares poorly, which is likely, Jaya would readily support UPA at the Centre and INC would reciprocate by withdrawing support to DMK, leading to fresh elections in the state. In fact INC has made up its mind to split from the DMK front post elections, to ensure that AIADMK does not go along with NDA. This is precisely the backdoor maneuvering being carried out by Ghulam Nabi Azad in TN, especially after PMK split.

1. Kerela – Infighting in the Left camp is costing dearly to the party. State is witnessing a UPA sweep. But RSS/BJP decision to transfer its votes to the Left has restricted its losses. Kasargod may fall into the BJP kitty although chances are dim.

My guesstimate : NDA = 0-1, UPA = 13-15, Left = 5-7

1. NE/UnionTerritories – Rest of NE, Goa and Union Territories would be as given below. Strangely Sri.P.C.Sangma (NCP) is supporting the BJP in NE, which may tilt the result of NE (Meghalaya, Arunachal and Nagaland) in favour of NDA. In the Union territories it is mostly about the anti incumbency factor against sitting MPs. Tripura is still a Left bastion.

State   NDA  UPA  Left  Others   Total

Manipur     0    2    0      0        2

Meghalaya    2    0    0      0      2

Arunachal     2    0    0      0      2

Mizoram     0    1    0      0      1

Tripura     0    0    2      0      2

Nagaland     1    0    0      0      1

Sikkim     0    0    0      1      1

Goa     1    1    0      0      2

Chandigarh   1    0    0      0      1

Dadra & Nagar     1    0    0      0      1

Lakshwadip     0    1    0      0      1

Andaman      1    0    0      0      1

Daman Diu     1    0    0      0      1

Total     10    5    2      1     18

THE BIG PICTURE

1. NDA [BJP, JD(U), SHS, INLD, RLD, SAD, AGP, NCP in NE (P.Sangma)]  = 195-200
2. UPA [INC, NCP, DMK, MUL, MIM, KEC, NC, TMC]    = 170-175
3. 3^rd front [Left, TDP, TRS, BJD, AIADMK+, JD(S), BSP]    = 140-145
4. 4^th front [RJD, SP, LJP]         =     30-35
5. Others / Independents         =     01-02

NATIONAL PARTIES

1. BJP  =  150-155
2. INC  =  140-145

The catch is if NDA slips in the crucial swing states of UP, Maharashtra, and/or performs worse than predicted by me in Bihar, Karnataka, Gujarat and/or TDP/Left alliance slips in AP, then it would be tough for LKA to realize his dream.

-Shiladitya Bose (Also known as Raja at this blog)

Dear friends, As April month comes to an end, I am ready to share with you the stats of last month. Promise of Reason has been a huge success in last few months, and the greatest factor in that has been involvement of you guys. It is your blog as much as mine. So, you deserve to know the performance of your blog. Last month was the best month till date on POR
So, in last month

Total Unique Visits: 42878
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Total Posts: 18
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Top 20 posts with total pageviews: Check them out and see for yourself, what made these posts so great. Don’t forget to read threads of interesting comments, which are sometimes more interesting than the post itself.

1. India Election 2009 pre-poll prediction : Introduction (12808)
2. Countdown to general election 2009 – south india – a thousand options (8729)
3. Countdown to general election 2009 – north india – a battleground (6278)
4. Countdown to general election 2009 – west india – a BJP sweep (6163)
5. Andhra Pradesh & Telangana seatwise prepoll prediction by Yellayi Rajesh (5758)
6. Promise of Reason Blog Pre-poll Prediction 2009 After Phase 1: NDA 212, UPA 175 (4981)
7. 9 northern states prepoll prediction by raja (4948)
8. Kerala pre-poll prediction : UDF front runner, BJP might get lucky (4766)
9. Countdown to general election 2009 – east india – lefts are loosing (4713)
10. Uttar Pradesh (UP) seatwise prepoll prediction by Vikas Kumar : Part 2 (3369)
11. Karnataka seatwise prepoll prediction by Shanthesh (3066)
12. Countdown to general election 2009 – conclusion – a hung parliament (2918)
13. Maharashtra seatwise prepoll prediction by Arun Narendhranath (2422)
14. Uttar Pradesh (UP) seatwise prepoll prediction by Vikas Kumar : Part 1 (2401)
15. Pre-poll prediction by Arun Nehru and case of possible post poll alliances (2140)
16. Rajasthan seatwise prepoll prediction by Maidros (1693)
17. Reality of Varun Gandhi speech (1203)
18. Assam seatwise prepoll prediction by Maidros (1137)
19. Chhattisgarh pre-poll prediction : BJP bastion, congress might get consolation prize (1131)
20. Opinion Polls: Getting the results you want (1104)

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Thank you friends once more. Keep reasoning

Dear friends, These are my Predictions for TN. However, I have to Admit, it’s A Rough one going by The Trends and Past Record(Including Delimitation factor takien into consideration).

In TamilNadu, The Key Players this Election would be : AIADMK Combine which includes PMK,MDMK,CPI,CPI(M), DMK-Congress-VCK Combine.
A Lot of Hype surrounding Captain Vijaykanth’s DMDK. However, Poll Observers and Analysts feel that being Directionless, DMDK has lost sheen.Going for The Parliamentary Elections alone, He has refused to Join The Open Invitation of State BJP Chief, Ila Ganesan and instead was seen hobnobbing with TNCC President giving clear indications that He would support upa post polls.Since Tamils are Extremely Angry over congressand would Teach A Lesson to anyone hobnobbing with them in This election, aspersions are being cast on whether he can retain the 8.3% vote he earned in 2006!!!!!
BJP Too has Formed Primarily with Sarathkumar’s Nadar outfit and Karthik’s Thevar outfit. However, As Karthik’s outfit is contesting on BJP’s Symbol, Technically, The Alliance is Primarily between BJP And AISMK of Sarath Kumar.

All Reserved Seats in TN are for SCs Only. There are NO ST Reserved Seats in TN.

1. Tiruvallur(Reserved) —- This Constituency is by And Large the older Sriperambudur Constituency(pre-delimitation). The SC Reserved Assembly Segments are now part of this newly carved constituency. This constituency largely consists of slum dwellers and a lot of them are Evangelized. one can see more churches then Temples in this part of TamilNadu. Hence, can be presumed as A DMK Bastion. Most likely, DMK would Win This Seat. Remember, Tirumavalavan, VCK President too is a dalit christian and he is with DMK Front. Therefore inaction of upa in protecting SL Tamils and continuance of DMK in upa may NOT be an issue here. Even Frequent powercuts too may not divert the evangelized slums in voting for DMK as various christian communities have already pledged their support to dmk led front in TN.

Bottomline : dmk sitting pretty

2.Chennai North —– This constituency has NOT Changed much post delimitation and it is here that SL Tamil issue and Eelam Struggle are A Hot Potato. The Lawers strike and The Government action against lawyers in addition to frequent powercuts is very much an Issue here and The Fight is Primarily between DMK and CPI which was alloted this constituency as part of The Alliance(Infact, CPI Got A Better Deal as far as choice of constituencies is concerned over CPI-M in The AIADMK Front).

Bottomline : Cakewalk for CPI

3. Chennai South —- This is An Elite Constituency. The Per Capita Income of People is Higher in This Constituency in The Whole of TN and is also higher than The National Average. A Educational Hub, IIT, Anna University,Gurunanak Arts College and several other Engineering Colleges, MGR Medical University are all Located in This Constituency. Further, This Constituency has 22% Brahmin Voters. Very High stakes for BJP. BJP has done well by fielding A Brahmin Candidate here, Ila Ganesan, TN BJP Chief. AIADMK and DMK have fielded New faces. DMK Leader in Lok Sabha, union Minister T R Baalu was so sure of getting Defeated from here that he shifted to the now dereserved neighbouring constituency of sriperumbadur. The Anti Ram Barbs of karunanidhi, upa’s pampering of minorities, vote bank politics, Anti Hindu activities of dmk-upa govt.,Terrorism and Governance are An Issue here.
With Cho and Dr. Subramanian Swamy being in BJP(Who constantly Remind of Ram Sethu Issue) and AIADMK Fielding a Non Brahmin, BJP should Make it to Parliament from This Constituency.

Bottomline : BJP Comfortably Ahead.

4. Chennai – Central —-  A DMK Bastion. With Former Union Minister, Dayanidhi Maran back into DMK Fold and The Sun Network and Karunanidhi’s families mending fences, DMK hould Win this seat quite Comfortably though, The SL Tamil Issue may bring down the margin of victory.

Bottomline : Cakewalk for DMK

5. Srierumbudur —– Rajiv who was killed here is long forgotten. AIADMK  has alloted this seat to Ally PMK. DMK has Fielded T R Baalu. Some of The Former South Chennai Assembly segments(particularly DMK Strongholds like Tambaram, a highly christian dominated constituency) have been added into the new Sriperumbadur constituency, hence, should be an easy victory.

Bottomline : DMK Comfortably Ahead.

6. Kancheepuram(Reserved) —- Famous for Kanchi Mutt and Silk Sarees(Highly Popular Wedding Silks) and The Town of Temples. This By Far The Old Chengalpattu Constituency(Pre Delimitation). Likely to be An Easy Seat for AIADMK. DMDK may however play spoilsport, but, stil AIADMK Ahead here in This Constituency.

Bottomline : AIADMK Sitting Pretty

7. Arrakonam —- This seat has been Allotted to PMK in The AIADMK Front and will take over DMK . PMK is certain to retain this seat.

Bottomline : An Interesting Battle on Cards. Toss up, However,PMK has an Edge.

8. Vellore : A Muslim Dominated Constituency. IUML(On DMK Symbol) has Edge here as The Minorities have Pledged their support to dmk-congress since both ar eAnti Hindu and pro minority

Bottomline : Advantage DMK(As IUML Candidate would Technically be DMK Candidate on Electoral Rolls)

9. Krishnagiri —- Issues like Hokkanegal Project and Cauvery Waters Sharing are Hot topics in This Constituency which shares it’s Border with Karnataka. Though BJP has put up A Candidate here, BJP can at the most garner only A Few Votes about 7-9 % a Maximum. Actually, Karnataka being A BJP State, may lower BJP Vote % here than that Anticipated. Fight likely to be between Archrivals DMK and AIADMK. This Region has Traditionally been An AIADMK Bastion ever since AIADMK was Formed.congress used to Win this seat in Alliance with AIADMK. In Assembly Elections, AIADMK always had edge here and won comfortably. for sure, AIADMK Will Win from here!!! However, ADMK Cant be overconfident as DMDK Might uspet the calculations. I Addition, KonguNadu Makkal Peravai, A PMK Like Caste based outfit of Gounders too may play spoilsport.

FootNote : A Little about The Caste Relations. Gounders(KMP) and Vanniayars(PMK) are Anti to each other and share an Acrimonious Relationship. Both have considerabale Influence in this region of Northen TN. Gounders have ben Traditionally with AIADMK but, With Emergence of KMP and PMK being part of AIADMK Front may anger Gounders and They might vote for their own outfit hence spoiling the Chances of ADMK.

Bottomline : May Spring A Surprise, but, Clearly An AIADMK Victory is Anticipated.

PS : BJP and KMP Would Essentially eat into ADMK’s votebase and NOT DMK’s. Hence, I said, can Spring A Surprise. The Factor that might work for AIADMK is that DMDK is eating into congress votebase!!!!!!

10. Dharmapuri : Part of Vanniyar Belt. PMK is almost sure to Win This Seat. The Real Threat is from DMDK as was proved in The Assembly Elections of 2006. However, This Constituency is ADMK Bastion too. As ADMK and PMK are Allies in This Election,  Again, with Eelam Sentiment going strong, PMK is likely to Retain this seat. However, still an interesting battle on cards.

Bottomline : PMK Clear Winner

11. Tiruvannamali —- one of The Pancha Bootha Lingams (Agni Lingam) is in Tiruvannamalai. Has A Very Famous Shiva Temple. Part of Vanniyar Belt. Main Fight between, PMK and DMK. DMDK too has some presence but, would come a distance Third. However, if DMDK Eats into the congress votes which seems to be more likely in this election, DMDK may close in the margin between second place(dmk) and third place(dmdk). Either case, PMK The Clearly Ahead.

Bottomline : A Sureshot Seat for PMK

12. Arani —- This is A Newly Carved Constituency in The Vanniyar Belt. A Triangular Battle anticipated between AIADMK, Congress and DMDK. While DMDK would certainly come third, it has to be seen how many and whose votes would this party eat into. The Advantage for ADMK is that congress is contesting from here and NOT DMK.

Bottomline : Toss Up. Still Advantage ADMK.

13. Villupuram(Reserved) —- Tough Fight on Cards between AIADMK and Pro Eelam VCK(Formerly Known as dalit panthers of India). However, The Alliance Arithmatic is likely to come in Handy for AIADMK.

Bottomline : Toss Up. Completely unpredictable. VCK might spring a surprise and upset AIADMK, Particularly with DMDK Playing The Role of Spoiler. However, one Can NEVER Write of AIADMK Chief Jayalalithaa. Still, An Interesting Contest Likely on cards.

14. Kallakuruchi —- Another Newly Carved out Seat in The Vanniyar Belt hence increasing the importance of PMK as an Ally in TN Politics. Battle mostly between PMK, which is sitting pretty and DMK, trying hard to convince people that it has done it’s best to save Tamils in SL from The Lankan Offensive. DMDK is trying to establish itself here but is sure to come a distant thrid as they are all alone.

Bottomline : PMK, The Clear Winner in This Constituency

15. Salem —– Known as Steel City of TamilNadu. AIADMK Clearly ahead over it’s one time Ally, Congress. As congress has done nothing for SL Tamils , AIADMK is quite comfortably placed here. DMDK would Obviously eat into the traditional congress votebank. BJP too has put up a candidate here, but, in my view, BJP may even find hard to save deposit in this constituency. KMP might eat into AIADMK Votes but, that Should NOT be of any concern to AIADMK as They are comfortably Ahead. Communists have Good Presence here and can actually tilt the balance. So Does MDMK. Since,  both of Them are in  Alliance with AIADMK, It’s Advantage AIADMK All The Way.

Bottomline : AIADMK Win Obvious

16. Namakkal —- Another Newly Carved Constituency again in The Vanniyar Belt. Fight between Arch Rivals DMK and AIADMK with AIADMK Comfortably Placed. Non Governance of TN Government, Frequent Powercuts clubbed with Eelam Struggle has put DMK on The Defensive. A Sure Win for AIADMK Particularly with the support of PMK Assured and Vaiko, A Strong Pro Eelam Man in AIADMK Front. Again An Assured Seat for AIADMK.

Bottomline : AIADMK Well Placed and Comfortably Ahead

17. Erode —– Main Battle between Pro Eelam MDMK and Anti Eelam congress. Needless to say Who would be The Winner

Bottomline —- MDMK Surely will Win The Seat

18. Tiruppur —- This is An Industiral Town and The Communists Hold Key. BJP too Does have some Presence here and Sarathkumar’s Party is Contesting This Seat as Part of NDA. MDMK too has a Strong Base here and AIADMK – MDMK Alliance Talks came to A Standstill on Raw over Allotment of This Seat as Both CPI(M) as well as MDMK have Sought This Constituency. As Per Reports, MDMK Threatened to walk over to NDA Camp had this seat been alloted to CPI(M). Jayalalithaa did A GreatJob by retaining This Seat and Thus Pacified both CPI(M) as well as MDMK, who otherwise would have Fielded A Rebel Candidate had it gone to any one of these two parties, thus breaking down the seat sharing. Since, The issue is now settled, AIADMK would Enjoy the support of both the cadres. with DMDK likely to eat into the votes of congress which would test electoral waters from here,AIADMK is likely to Win by A Thumping Margin. Concern for AIADMK is KMP, Which would take considerable section of Gounder Votes.This Region has A Large Gounder Population.

19. Nilgiris(Reserved) —- The Badugas Hold The Key. The Badugas, whose ST status was reverted and have been pushed into OBC have demanded the re-installation of The ST Status(Pre-1961 Status). BJP has some base here and is contesting. Master Mathan, A Baduga Himself has Made Efforts to bring Them Back into ST Category. However, as The Seat is Reserved now for Sheducled Castes,He is unable to contest the seat. Jayalalithaa alloted this constituency to MDMK. The DMK Candidate from here, A. Raja, The Current IT & Communications Minister is A Strong Candidate. Hence, BJP may essentially Back MDMK, A Potential Post Poll Ally. KMP too has fielded A Candidate from here. The Battle might sem interesting but, is clearly between DMK and MDMK. The Corruption charges(Petrol Scam) may hit Raja, The DMK Candidate but, a multi cornered contest with BJP,KMP and DMDK Eating into Anti DMK Votes might help DMK. Congress too has A Good Presence here. However, It is likely that DMDK might cut into the congress votebase.

Bottomline : Toss Up!!!!! completely unpredictable!! However, if The Eelam Factor overrides any other factor. MDMK likely to Emerge as Winner.

20. Coimbatore — One Seat in The Whole of TN, from where, on any given day, CPI(M) would Win The Seat on It’s Own!!!!! This is A Communist Bastion. Except in Late Nineties, when BJP Won This Seat twice(in Alliance with one of The Two Principle Dravidian Parties), This has Remained A Communist Fiefdom. This is A Business Centre and Communists Call The Shots. Congress would be Taking on Communists here. BJP has completely lost it’s influence in This Constituency. DMDK too is likely to obtain a good chunk of votes, mostly from traditional congress votebase. BJP is further weakened here due to KMP fielding it’s candidate.This is The Headquarters of KonguNadu. BJP Commanded support from Kongu Vellala Gounder Community as C P RadhaKrishnan, former BJP MP from Coimbatore is A Gounder. Alliance between BJP and KMP didnt Materialize and as A Result, BJP is likely to come a poor fourth or may be even a fifth!!!!!!!!! As per reports, DMDK might eat into some of The ADMK votes(as ADMK is NOT Contesting from here) and might push congress to a shameful Third!!!!!!! In Any Permutation and Combination, CPI(M) would Win This Seat Handsomely!!!!

Bottomline —- Cakewalk for CPI(M)

RAJ

Many more such cartoons can be found at election cartoon blog; keep smiling

Hello Friends!

After saying a long due “Thanks” to all of you for making POR blog a success, I am very happy to announce the launch of Indian Politics Forums by Promise of Reason Blog. Your one stop place to discuss Indian politics. It is a extension of this blog with more features and powers to users. You can start your own topics, post links, organize polls and above all, can make some very good friends. Please Register here.

Indian Politics Forums is a result of long felt need of an exclusive Indian politics related forum. We do have many good forums around on the web, but none is specific to the most talked about topic in India, that is our politics.
We all have views, comments and problems related to our political system. It is time to think reasonably and discuss among us the various ways to take India to its due place in the world.
So, here I, Chakresh Mishra, welcome you all to this forum. To keep it organize we have 4 categories.

• Cafe Politico India : Introduce yourself here and look for important announcement, a hang out corner. You can post feedback, queries and problems related to forums and blog here.
• Your Opinion Matters : Its primary purpose is to promote culture of thinking in ourselves. Whenever you want to share your thoughts, this is the place to go. I request all of you to post only original (written by you) content here.
• Share Link Love : Whenever you find something interesting on internet, some news, some photo, some video, some blog post please share with all of us. We will not mind self promotion
• Offtopic: As the name suggest, Anything other than politics, that you think is worth sharing. Not spam though.

We will be introducing many new feature in upcoming days to make it the best forum, so keep updated. Don’t forget to register to take part in discussions.

Thank you and welcome once again.

I love politics, period. I love its intricacies, its goals, its randomness, its ideals, its malice, but above all I love the political personalities – angels and daemons alike. I love to watch them grow, toil, meander and make their way around. There are two politicians from my home state UP, whom I have been observing for their whole careers when they were on main stage (so to say, for my whole life, for last 20 years ). Both of them are representative of oppressed classes in Indian society. Both of them have such strong leadership qualities for their supporters, that millions can move on their one signal. Both of them are arrogant and crude in their way. Both of them are so called “outsiders” in Indian political class. Both of them have been CM of UP several times. Both of them are very important in equation of next government formation. Both of them are facing corruption charges. Yes, I am talking about Madam mayawati and Maulana Mulayam. Both of them are staunch enemies of each other. Both of them are very interesting characters and fascinate me very much.
The one problem that mares both of these champion politicians is their lust for money (all politicians have lust for paisa, power and public, but Maya-Mulayam are many notches ahead of others in this field). Let me give an memoir on their money lust as speculated by public and perceived by myself.

Mayawati – I remember, the famous “tilak taraju aur talwar, inko maro jute chaar” slogan from my childhood. From an ordinary school teacher to PM-hopeful of biggest democracy in the world, “Dalit ki Beti” as she calls herself is a ray of hope for SC people in north India. Due to her politics, in every village, SCs (the biggest caste block in UP – 25%) are contesting elections of panchayats by themselves for the first time in history. Earlier they used to support the candidate who can give money/alcohol on election eve. In my own village now a lower caste person is Pradhan. All this is made possible by the moral strength given to lower caste people by rise of Behen Mayawati.
Now the flip of coin, She takes money for everything you can imagine in politics. As she has 25% vote bank in her pocket and is only decider of BSP, so assembly ticket (1 crore), parliament ticket (10 crore), Madam’s b’day (10000-10 crores), posting/transfer of DM/SP (10 lakhs) etc. The bigger problem is that she does not hide her money lust, it is a open show. If you question her, same answer “nobody wants to see a dalit ki beti making money”
This plague has undermined her whole persona and possibly her great place in Indian history. I just wonder, if she was not so lusty for money, it would have been an Obama-story of India.

Mulayam – I remember in my colony, there was residence of our local Janata Dal MP, where from 4am in morning loudspeaker used to start singing “Naam mulayam singh hai lekin kaam bade fauladi …” song. And, yes, he was a man of iron. I have never been his supporter though, but I admired him for his ideals and strictness. He was the champion of OBCs (specially Yadavs) and Muslims in UP, and still is. He was a simple man, rose from a normal middle class background, made his own fortune, became a idol of all local Gundas/students leaders. He was everything but not lusty for money, a true socialist.
Then came Amar Singh and polluted him with the hoards of money and star power. Now when he says in his manifesto that money power should be banned, people make fun of him. Some says that it is other way round and Amar Singh is a tool of Mulayam to convert his black money into white. Now you can see just a shadow of old Mulayam. Many colleagues have left him and many are looking a way out. Amar Singh hijacks every press conference/stage from him, and he is just a mute spectator.
I have a sense of pity for him as he was one of my favorite player in Indian politics and watching him spiraling down is painful.

Great theorist Abraham Maslow said that once an individual gets the power and recognition, his lust for money die out. In this case, he could not been more wrong. So, friends! it is not that UP has stopped producing great leaders, problem is those colored Gandhiji and our respect for them.

Think about this the next time an opinion poll is trumpeted as a real gauge of public opinion or any of NDTV/CNN-IBN/IndiaTV/ThisTV/ThatTV tries to change your opinion by stating their preferred version of public opinion. Choose wisely friends, it is very easy to get a result you want in opinion poll.

“Opinion polls are not designed to measure public opinion, they’re designed to shape it.” Peter Hitchens

See some seatwise detailed analysis

By Promise of Reason (covered Kerala, Chhattisgarh till now)

By readers of Promise of Reason (covered Maharashtra, Karnataka, Andhra, Assam, Rajasthan, UP till now)

Comments are invited, and don’t forget to share it with your friends.

I am the Sales head of my company, in charge of Eastern, Central and Western India. My areas include Eastern & Central UP, Bihar, Jharkhand, Assam/NE, West Bengal, Orissa, MP, Chattisgarh, Maharashtra, and Gujarat. My subordinates and me travel to length and breadth of these states, including rural and semi urban areas and meet a lot of people (panchayat leaders, local groups etc). For the past 4-5 months; politics / lok sabha elections invariably come up during our discussions with them. Based on these feedbacks I am putting up my estimates for the elections in these states

1) Bihar – Caste is still a predominant factor. Muslims still have a suspicion towards LKA as PM and would prefer a UPA goverment at Centre and Nitish Kumar Govt at state level. But Nitish’s good governance plank has also made inroads as people are getting fruits of developement after a long time. Though it is an advantage JD(U)-BJP, Laloo is down but not out. It is the LJP votes that are gradually tilting towrds the NDA. Paswan is in for a shocker. INC may be blanked out.
My guesstimate : NDA = 24-27, RJD+ = 13-16, INC = 0-1.

2) Eastern & Central UP – Signs of anti-incumbency showing up especially among forward castes, who have started tilting towards the BJP, although slowly. Moreover tickets to goons given by BSP and hooliganism by their cadres are hurting the party. Dalits would vote en bloc for BSP even though signs of anger on the incumbent Chief Minister are getting visible. Minority vote is divided and I suspect that the earlier “strategic voting to defeat BJP” would be absent this time. NSA on Varun Gandhi has polarised the situation to some extent and this would deliver additional votes to the BJP in this part of UP. But ground reality is that if BJP can project Varun Gandhi as the next BJPs Chief Ministerial candidate, he would give Mayawati and Mulayam sleepless nights for UP Vidhan Sabha polls 2012. But the biggest shocker would be for SP as they are gradually losing the minority (BSP is getting stronger) and OBC (3-way split – SP/BJP/BSP) votes. BJP’s Yogi Adityanath may also be in for a shock this time. INC would be blanked out in most of the seats won by them in 2004 (Kanpur, Bansgaon, Allahabad). BJP is on a silent upswing especially in the urban areas, which is not visible to media. BSP is however still the frontrunner.
My guesstimate in these areas where I frequently visit (42 seats) : BSP = 25-28, SP = 6-8, BJP = 7-9, INC = 2-3 (including Amethi, Rai Barelli).

3) Jharkhand – Huge anti incumbency against the incumbent State Government but not so much against the Centre. Here independents are also queering the pitch. Both BJP and INC are facing internal sabotage. 3 cornered contest with slight advantage to NDA. In fact had NDA allied with JVM and JD(U) given ticket to Sri.I.S.Namdhari, it would have been a landslide.
My guesstimate : NDA = 5-7, UPA = 4-6, RJD+ = 1-2, JVM = 1, Independent = 1 (I.S.Namdhari).

4) Madhya Pradesh & Chhattisgarh – A highly divided opposition makes the task of BJP quite easy. Leaders of INC are busy squabbling among themselves leaving its cadres directionless in both states. Anti incumbency against sitting MPs is steadily gaining ground in both states but INC is unable to capitalise. Had INC put up suitable candidates and presented a united face, they would have won around 15-18 seats in these 2 states. But this is not happening on the ground.
My guesstimate for MP : NDA = 22-24, UPA = 5-7
My guesstimate for Chattisgarh : NDA = 8-9, UPA = 2-3

5) Orissa – BJD has committed a hara kiri by breaking its alliance with the BJP. This was on the cards for quite some time now after Kandhamal violence. In fact lot of leaders of BJD who were against the autocratic style of Navin Patnaik, are joining BJP after the divorce. Navin Patnaik has created a myth of “Orissa Shining” like NDA did in 2004. Though the INC is a divided house, there is every possibility that it may become the single largest party after the assembly polls given the anti incumbency especially in rural and tribal areas. BJP is still carrying the baggage of anti incumbency of 10 years of BJD-BJP rule and would lose substantial votes this time. But in the long run it can consolidate its votes and may reduce BJD like JD(S) in Karnataka or JD in Gujarat. If however, it once again allies with the BJD post poll, then it is curtains for the saffron party and a lot of leaders would desert it. If on the other hand BJD decides to support an INC led government at the Centre (based on certain media reports), it can be rest assured that BJP would come to power on its own in the state during the next round of Assembly polls.
My guesstimate for Orissa : INC = 10-12, BJD/NCP/Left = 7-9, BJP = 3-4

6) West Bengal – Another “UPA shining” fiasco on the cards. There is a deep sense of anger in Kolkata and its adjoining districts over the anti development agenda of Smt.Mamata Banerjee. The city and its adjoining suburbs would vote against UPA in a big way leaving them high and dry. Though UPA alliance would pick some seats in rural Bengal, the media hype created would turn out to be hollow. In fact INC may lose a seat or two over 2004. BJP may win Darjeeling and Krishnanagar seats if it works hard.
My guesstimate for West Bengal : INC = 4-5, TMC = 6-7, BJP = 1-2, Left = 29-31

7) Assam – Incumbent government is in extremely bad shape with a huge anti-incumbency against both State and Centre. Adding to its woes is the recent bomb blasts and the emergence of AUDF, which is eating away minority votes in large chunks. AUDF has allied with the Left/NCP thus damaging the prospects of INC further. BJP has stitched up a smart alliance with AGP/AGP(P) and is getting stronger day by day. INC sources fear that heavy weights like Santosh Mohan Dev may also bite the dust this time.
My guesstimate for Assam : NDA = 11-12, INC = 0-2, AUDF/NCP/Left = 0-1

8)Gujarat – Though all surveys give thumbs up to Narendra Modi, but every one is missing the real picture. Recession has forced down industries and job losses are becoming a poll issue. One panchayat leader of a village in Surat area belonging to BJP, had candidly expressed the ground level is getting alarming and was becoming similar to the late 80s when a lot mills closed down, which ultimately led to the decline of the INC in the state. People are getting angry with Narendra Modi as they feel that the state government is not doing enough to prevent job losses especially in North Gujarat and Surat belt. Central Gujarat may go to INC like in 2007. Surprisingly Nano is a non-issue in Gujarat.
My guesstimate for Gujarat : INC = 9-11, BJP = 15-17

9) Maharashtra – The ground situation is peculiar. Though anti-incumbency is beginning to peak, people of Maharashtra is still ready to vote for UPA – I was very surprised with the feed back. This is particularly true among dalits and minorities. High MSP of cotton, good rains coupled with loan waiver has helped UPA to score brownie points in Vidharbha. The biggest problem plaguing the NDA is absence of charismatic leaders and ground level mistrust between SHS and BJP. Though similar mistrust exists between the UPA partners also, the committed vote base of the 2 alliances is tilted in favour of the UPA. Based on our discussions with people I guess that Marathwada region would see a UPA sweep while NDA would score substantial gains in Mumbai-Pune-Thane belt. Vidharbha area would see a 60:40 split in favour of UPA.
My guesstimate for Maharastra : NDA = 21-23, UPA = 25-27

10) NE and Goa – (added on 16 april)

Rest of NE and Goa would be as given below. Strangely Sri.P.C.Sangma (NCP) is supporting the BJP in NE, which may tilt the result of NE in favour of NDA.

State NDA UPA Left Others Total
Manipur 0 2 0 0 2
Meghalaya 2 0 0 0 2
Arunachal 2 0 0 0 2
Mizoram 0 1 0 0 1
Tripura 0 0 2 0 2
Nagaland 1 0 0 0 1
Sikkim 0 0 0 1 1
Goa 1 1 0 0 2
Total 6 4 2 1 13