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The point spread is also only a FG opposed to the 12-point line the Pats were favored by in Arizona.

When the Giants have the ball, expect them to attack with the pass to set up the run. The Patriots pass D is poor and often times they ask WR Julian Edelman to play in the slot. That’s a tall order considering he’ll be lining up against Victor Cruz much of the evening.

The Giants other receivers (Hakeem Nicks, Mario Manningham) also have a decided advantage over the DBs that will be covering them.

The key for the Patriots will be how well they disguise their coverages and how effective DT Vince Wilfork and the front four pressure Eli. If they can, it will limit some of the Giants effectiveness, especially down the field, but the Giants offensive line has actually pass blocked well over the 2nd half of the season, the NFC Championship game excluded. But that was against an excellent Niners D on a sloppy field; not the 31st ranked Pats D in a dome.

An X factor in this game will be RB Ahmad Bradshaw.  He missed the Week 9 contest and will be difficult for the Pats to contain as a runner and receiver out of the backfield.

When the Patriots have the ball, look for New England to throw a wrinkle at the Giants and come out running the ball out of the spread offense. They don’t want to become too one dimensional because that plays right into the Giants main strength, which is getting after the QB.

So, they’ll likely employ a quick passing game to go with the run and pick their spots when to open it up.

But a lot will depend on Brady’s ability to keep the Giants D off balance. If he is unable to do this, it could be a long evening for him.

BenJarvus Green-Ellis could be an effective runner as well as the Giants mostly use the Nickel D vs high powered passing offenses.

The X Factors will be their TEs, and namely, Rob Gronkowski. He’s coming off a bad ankle injury and it’s unlikely that he’ll be more than 60-70% healthy. If he becomes a non-factor, it will allow New York to play one man on him rather than two, and they’ll then shift their attention to Aaron Hernandez, the other talented TE.

When it’s all said and done, look for the Giants to win their 2nd Super Bowl in five years.

Both coaches are excellent at game planning and preparing their teams, but the Giants have the better and deeper team.

The Patriots lack of a deep threat coupled with the Giants ferocious pass rush also means that New England will be forced to rely on long drives to put points on the board, which will not be so easy to do. Whereas the Giants offense is a threat to strike at any time.

New York Giants 31 – New England Patriots 21

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Baltimore Ravens (+7.5) vs. New England Patriots – While everyone is firmly on the Pats bandwagon after last Saturday’s 45-10 romp, people are forgetting one thing: New England did not beat a team with a winning record the entire season, last Saturday included.

So while this is at home and the TE duo is hotter than ever, it’s certainly not a foregone conclusion that the Patriots will win.

In fact, we think if Baltimore plays its game they’ll be the team that advances from the AFC.

When the Ravens have the ball, look for them to remain committed to the run to set up the pass. The Patriots porous secondary makes the thought of throwing the ball very attractive, but Joe Flacco is not a QB that can consistently beat a team without a running game.

So keeping Ray Rice involved early and often will be the key.

And if he finds success and can average 4 yards per attempt, it’ll take the necessary pressure off of Flacco and open up play action and down the field opportunities.

When the Patriots have the ball, look for Brady to continue to spread the ball around and only mix in the run when he has the Ravens D on its heels. Baltimore is usually very stout against the run and New England doesn’t really have a running game to speak of.

The Ravens DB’s will focus on the Patriots TE’s and play man to man on the outside, which could translate into a big day by Wes Welker.

However, look for Suggs and Co. to come after Brady hard to disrupt the Patriots timing and rhythm.

That is the only way you can stop this offense.

When it’s all said and done, expect a very close outcome,  but one which has Baltimore coming out on top, making them a great play against the point spread and a solid money line bet. The Patriots are not a physical team while the Ravens are, and that usually is the difference when playing in late January.

Baltimore 24-20.

NFC

New York Giants (+2.5) vs. San Francisco 49ers - The Week 10 match up came down to the wire (27-20) and this one looks like it’ll be even more of a dog fight than that one. Weather calls for rain and wind, and both teams are playing at a very high level now.

When the Giants have the ball, expect them to pass first and then run. The 49ers possess the best run D in the business but can be hurt by the pass. And while the weather will certainly not do any favors for the passing game, the sloppy ground will offset some of the effectiveness of the 49ers pass rush by slowing it down and giving Manning more time to throw.

Expect a shorter passing game throughout, with RB Ahmad Bradshaw heavily involved on check down throws, before New York takes their shots deep.

That is the main weakness of the 49ers defense.

When the 49ers have the ball, expect them to attack with the run to set up the pass. But New York’s defense has become much more stout over the past month and this will limit Frank Gore‘s effectiveness.

Harbaugh’s a very creative schemer who will add a few wrinkles to the passing attack, and this will create opportunities. But we expect the Giants CB’s to press at the line and try and take away the slant patterns, forcing Alex Smith to beat them outside.

We also think New York will key in on Vernon Davis like they did Jermichael Finley last week and make another player beat them.

When all is said and done, expect a close, hard fought affair which is not decided until the 4th quarter.

But New York is riding too much momentum now and playing too soundly in all three phases to pick against them.

Giants 20-13.

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Houston Texans (+7.5) vs. Baltimore Ravens – This is a rematch from earlier in the year when the Ravens handled the Texans 29-14.

And while that could happen again, we don’t think it will.  There have been far too many times where OC Cam Cameron abandons Ray Rice and the running game and that’s not going to cut it this week.

When the Texans have the ball, look for them to continue to run first and pass second.

The Ravens are pretty solid vs. the run but RB Arian Foster will be a factor this time around. While QB Matt Schaub is absent, the return of a healthy WR Andre Johnson will force Baltimore to keep a Safety deep, which will aid the rushing attack and open up opportunities for Tyler Yates.

When the Ravens have the ball, they’ll need to get Ray Rice involved early and often. If they deviate from this plan, it could lead to trouble against a very solid Texans D.

Joe Flacco is not the kind of QB to carry the team and everything feeds off of the running game.

So expect Baltimore to use the run to set up the pass / play action which will lead to success in the 2nd half.

When it’s all said and done, look for a close game and a 23-17 final, which will cover the 7.5 point spread.

NFC

New York Giants (+7.5) vs. Green Bay Packers – A lot of things have changed since the 38-35 Packers win over the Giants in December. For one thing, both teams are healthy.

New York is as healthy as they’ve been all year and the Packers have gotten back some key players along the offensive line and at LB’er.

When New York has the ball, look for them to mix in the short passing game with the run to set the tempo. The Packers D yields a lot of yards and doesn’t consistently get after the QB.

What they do well however is intercept the ball, which is why a short to mid range game plan will minimize the Packers opportunities for creating turnovers.

And when the Packers bring their Safeties up closer to the line to stop the run, look for Eli Manning to take advantage of his outside threats and strike down the field.

When the Packers have the ball, expect a game plan that’s designed to get the ball out of Aaron Rodgers hands quickly.

And no one does this better than Rodgers.

The running game shouldn’t be a factor because the Giants front is playing exceptional right now, so Green Bay will use the short pass in lieu of the run.

Rodgers will be able to find success on crossing patterns and throwing over the middle to his talented receiving corps. And if the Giants front four fails to pressure him, his mobility will allow him to  strike down the field, which is exactly what worries New York the most.

The Packers are 15-1 for a reason, and well rested coming into this game. The edge usually goes to the home team coming off the bye.

But the Giants enter this as hot as anyone in the league and if they can weather the Packers in the 1st half and keep things close, then except a 30-27 Giants upset.

San Francisco 49ers (+3.5) vs. New Orleans Saints – The Saints are getting all of the love in the media as the team to beat and have been made a 3.5 favorite in San Francisco.

Before everyone begins booking hotel rooms in Indianapolis, they may want to step back and analyze the facts a bit more closely.

New Orleans is 0-4 in road playoff games and their offensive production dropped dramatically when on the road AND on grass in 2011.

They even lost at Tampa Bay.

When the Saints have the ball, look for them to attack with the pass to set up the run. If there’s one area to attack the 49ers defense, it’s the secondary.

The problem with this is San Francisco will press the receivers and disrupt the timing of the routes, which is how the Saints’ passing game usually works to perfection.

The Niners front will pressure Brees into getting rid of the ball sooner than he’d like and rely on dump-offs and check downs for most of the afternoon.

The Saints running game will not be much of a factor on Saturday.

When the Niners have the ball, they’ll need to employ the quick passing game to offset the blitz, which is exactly how Gregg Williams’ defense will attack Alex Smith. But Jim Harbaugh is creative enough to draw up plays to exploit mismatches against the Saints average secondary and will do so.

This will force New Orleans to keep a Safety deep which will help out the running game

The X factor will once again be K David Akers. He’s had an amazing year and will play a prominent role as the 49ers struggle to score in the red zone.

Look for a very competitive game in which the 49ers not only cover the point spread, but pull out the 23-20 win.

AFC

New England Patriots (-13.5) vs. Denver Broncos – The Patriots caught a bit of a break when the Broncos upset the Steelers last Sunday. While John Fox is a heck of a coach, the Broncos D doesn’t have the personnel or scheme to disrupt Brady the way that Pittsburgh could have.

When the teams met in December, New England routed Denver 41-23.

There’s no reason to assume things will be different this time.

When New England has the ball, expect Brady to once again run the offense through its TE’s (Gronkowski and Hernandez). This will force Denver to pay attention to the middle of the field which will open up opportunities for Welker and Co.

And with the Safeties and LB’ers focusing on the TE’s the Pats will be able to successfully mix in the run.

When the Broncos have the ball, they’ll once again try and pound the rock. Although the Pats secondary is porous, Tebow’s not going to consistently beat them through the air like they did Pittsburgh.

And Denver knows this.

Their best opportunity is to eat away at the clock and keep Tom Brady sitting on the sidelines.

While it sounds great in theory, it won’t happen on Saturday night.

Look for New England to roll at home 41-17.

NFC

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New York Giants (-3) vs. Atlanta Falcons – This game is about as even as they come. And the 3 point betting line suggests that the odds makers think just that.

The edge however lies with the home team as Atlanta, who plays in a dome, must play outdoors in what figures to be a chillier Sunday afternoon.

So, look for the Falcons to try and run the ball with RB Turner to set up the passing game, which should find success against a less than stout Giants secondary.

There will be opportunities for WR Julio Jones or WR Roddy White to hit the big play.

When New York has the ball, the Giants will use the pass to set-up the run. The Falcons play a lot of zone so look for Eli to use the short to mid range passing game before getting Bradshaw and Jacobs involved.

And once the Falcons bring their Safeties closer to the line, the Giants will target Nicks and Cruz deep, where they’ve been deadly all year.

The contest will be close throughout but look for New York to secure the win in the 4th quarter by more than a FG.

AFC

Pittsburgh Steelers (-8.5) vs. Denver Broncos – Even with the large spread, it’s just very difficult to go with Denver right now. Tim Tebow is playing horribly and likely will not top 100 yards passing this week.

Pittsburgh’s defense is fast enough to keep him contained while getting after him, which makes Tebow a very likely candidate for a turnover which is returned for a TD.

When Pittsburgh has the ball, QB Ben Roethlisberger’s bad ankle and all, expect them to find success down the middle of the field with S Brian Dawkins out. He’s been a big loss to the Broncos D over the three game losing streak and leaves a HUGE hole in the secondary.

That will open up the running game for RB Isaac Redman and the passing game to WR Mike Wallace, WR Antonio Brown and TE Heath Miller.

It was a nice, magical, some say supernatural run while it lasted, but the Broncos season comes to an end on Sunday.

Look for the 17-3 Steelers romp as they advance to round 2

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Houston Texans (-3) vs. Cincinnati Bengals – Although the Texans have played their worst ball of the season lately, they’re catching a Bengals team that failed to beat one playoff team the entire season.

They also showed distinct holes against the run in their finale as Ray Rice torched them for two long TDs.

Against Arian Foster and Ben Tate, that’s a weakness that’s sure to be exploited. This should be a competitive game throughout, but look for Houston to win a lower scoring game by 7 on the back of a strong defensive effort and the legs of their stout running game.

Earlier in the week the FG point spread looked good in Cincinnati’s favor. But now, whether betting in a Vegas sportsbook or the best online sportsbook, the smart money is on Houston.

NFC

Detroit Lions (+10.5) vs. New Orleans Saints – The Saints will win this game. They’ve won most in their home park going away. But the Lions will be much healthier this go around than when the teams faced off a month ago.

In that contest they were without DT Ndamukong Suh plus S Louis Delmas, which hurt against the pass. And that is exactly where Brees and Co. attacked that night. The yards and points will be high once again, as both offenses are prolific, but the outcome will be closer than the 10.5 betting line suggests.

1. Detroit Lions (-3.5) vs. GB – The Packers have nothing to play for and will likely rest their starters. The Lions are still playing for Playoff seeding.

They’ll cover the point spread with an easy win on Sunday.

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2. San Francisco 49ers (-10.5) vs. Stl. – The Rams know Steve Spagnuolo‘s out after this game and no effort on their part will save their head coach’s job. They’ll also want to avoid injury with the off-season directly following the game.

San Francisco is playing for the No. 2 seed and will win this going away.

3. Miami Dolphins (-2) vs. NYJ – For all of the talk Rex Ryan did to start the year, he couldn’t back it up. The Jets will find themselves on the wrong side of the final score when they head down to Miami.

They’ll also find themselves out of the Playoffs.

4. Seattle Seahawks (+3) vs. Arz – See Money Line Bet.

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Buffalo Bills (+11) vs. NE – Will the Patriots win? Yes. By 11? We don’t think so. The improved Bills play will carry over this week and result in a loss by a TD.

Cincinnati Bengals (+2.5) vs. Bal – The Ravens are an anomaly. They’re seemingly dominant some weeks and less than spectacular in others. They’ve been the latter more times than not recently and Cincinnati will be revved up with a chance to lock down the 6th seed.

Carolina Panthers (+8.5) vs. NO – The Saints are very good at home, but there’s a real chance that once they see the 49ers destroying the Rams they’ll decide to rest their starters, since the Wild Card game is a week away. That will open up things for Newton and Co. to keep things close.

Money Line Bet

Seattle Seahawks (+125) vs. Arz – Both teams have played very well down the stretch, and both were eliminated from the Playoff race with tight losses a week ago. Of the two teams, Seattle has been the more physical team over the 2nd half of the season and will pull out the close win here to finish at .500 on the season.

Best Bet

1. San Diego Chargers (+2.5) vs. Det – See money line bet.

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2.  Carolina Panthers (-7.5) vs. TB – The Bucs have regressed horribly in 2011.

They’re in the midst of an eight-game losing streak and the heat is on their head coach, Raheem Morris. The Panthers on the other hand are on the upswing and Cam Newton will lead them to an easy victory here.

3.  Seattle Seahawks (+2) vs. SF – The point spread is less than a FG because the Niners are on the road and on a short week. But the Seahawks are also much better now than they were earlier in the year, especially on defense.

Expect a close, low scoring game, which Seattle may very well pull out in the end.

4. Miami Dolphins (+10) vs. NE – There’s always the possibility of the Patriots suffering a minor letdown after last week’s big win over Tim Tebow and Co. The Fins have also been competitive in nearly every game since the midpoint of the season.

The Rest

Denver Broncos (-3) vs. Buf – The Broncos will move one step closer to wrapping up the AFC West after Sunday’s win.

Arizona Cardinals (+4) vs. Cin – The game has plenty of importance to the Bengals playoff hopes, but the Cards are streaking at the right time. Expect them to keep the final score to within three points.

Kansas City Chiefs (-2) vs. Oak – The Raiders looked poised for an AFC West crown just a few weeks ago but those dreams have disappeared after three straight losses. It’ll be four after Saturday.

Money Line Bet

San Diego Chargers (+120) vs. Det – The Chargers are on fire since the Jacksonville game. The resurgence of Philip Rivers can primarily be attributed to the raised level of play from the offensive line, and San Diego has moved to 7-7 on the season.

The Lions on the other hand still feature an explosive offense but their defense has become ordinary.

Look for the Bolts to win their 4th in a row in a high scoring game on Saturday.

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Top Pick

1. Carolina Panthers vs. TB – The Bucs are in a tailspin having lost eight in a row. It becomes nine this week and moves Raheem Morris one step closer to being shown the door.

Expect Cam Newton and Co. to easily cover the point spread (-7.5) and they’re the top suicide pool pick on the board in Week 16.

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2. New Orleans Saints vs. Atl – The Saints are 11-3 and tied with the 49ers as the No. 2 seed in the NFC. They desperately want a bye in the Playoffs and will knock off their division rivals in order to get it.

3. Denver Broncos vs. Buf – Denver received a pretty good licking at the hands of the Patriots, but luckily for them, these are the Bills. And the Bills over the 2nd half of the season have been turnover prone and accustomed to losing.

It’ll happen again this week as Tim Tebow and the Broncos move that much closer to wrapping up the AFC West.

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Must Start

1. Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Stl – Things could get ugly in St. Louis.

2. Houston Texans vs. Ind – Expect a big bounce back game vs. the 1-win Colts.

3. Baltimore Ravens vs. Cle – We expect a different Ravens D to show up on Sunday.

4. San Francisco 49ers vs. Sea – The 49ers D will be prominent throughout.

Next

Tennessee Titans vs. Jax – This looks like a solid match-up on paper if only because of QB Blaine Gabbert.

Denver Broncos vs. Buf – Expect a Broncos rebound against a turnover prone Bills team.

Seattle Seahawks vs. SF – Seattle’s D has really stepped up over the 2^nd half of the season.

The Rest

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Arz – It gets even better if Kevin Kolb returns.

Arizona Cardinals vs. Cin – The Cards D has been stingy of late too.

Carolina Panthers vs. TB – The Bucs are a horrible offensive unit right now.

Green Bay Packers vs. Chi – If Caleb Hanie is once again the starter, the Packers then become that much more attractive of a play.

Washington Redskins vs. Min –Washington is hoping to avoid another 10-loss season.

Fantasy Sleeper

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Oak – KC blanked the Raiders the last time they played. They’re a solid fantasy sleeper to once again shut down the sputtering Raiders O.