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Best Bet

New Orleans Saints (+5) vs. Indianapolis Colts

With a healthy DE Dwight Freeney, the point spread would favor the Colts by 7 and justifiably so. However, odds are that if he plays, which is unlikely, it’ll only be in obvious passing situations.

Without Freeney, look for this game to feature a lot of offense on both sides of the ball. Brees and Manning should be able to match each other score for score but we give the overall edge to the Saints now because of their ability to run the ball.

RB Pierre Thomas will have a nice day on the ground and his ability to pick up yards – and 1st downs – will keep the play-action pass for Brees effective all game long and Manning on the sidelines for long periods of time.

And DC Gregg Williams, with two weeks to prepare and a healthier defensive roster of the two, will create enough pressure (for Manning) that his opportunistic defense makes one game changing play that impacts the final outcome.

Money Line

The ramifications of an inactive – and even unhealthy – DE Dwight Freeney also make the Saints an excellent money line bet (+180).

Let’s not forget that for as impressive as Manning was over the last 32 minutes of the AFC Championship Game, it was the defense which pitched the 2nd half shut out, and Freeney’s ability to disrupt the passer’s rhythm and take attention away from the other defensive lineman/blitzing LBers was a big reason why.

The defense also shut out the Ravens over the final three quarters of their Divisional Round Playoff win after Baltimore kicked a FG on its opening drive.

Which is why we like the Saints to pull off the upset 31-28.

The Super Bowl is finally upon us.

It features the two top seeds from both conferences who each started out the season 13-0.

The Colts are here after two commanding post season victories over the Ravens and Jets. The impressive part about the AFC Championship Game is that after going down 17-6, Manning rallied his troops to outscore New York 24-0 over the final 32 minutes of the game.

The Saints on the other hand are fortunate to be in this position. After an overwhelming 45-14 victory over the Arizona Cardinals in the Divisional Round, it took five turnovers, one being an infamous interception by Brett Favre at the end of regulation, before the Saints kicked the GW FG in OT to advance to the Super Bowl.

Since then, the only major news leading up to the game – from either team – is the status of DE Dwight Freeney. Mixed reports are coming out of the Colts camp but it appears unlikely that he’ll be able to play in this game due to a torn ligament in his ankle… and if he can, he’ll be far below 100%.

Onto our analysis of the Super Bowl:

When the Colts have the ball, they’ll use the same formula they’ve used all season and keep the game in Manning’s hands throughout.  While the Saints possess above average CB play, their defensive front’s ability to pressure the QB is usually dependent upon playing with a lead, something we don’t expect here, so look for Manning to have time to deliver the ball.

Reggie Wayne won’t have much trouble making his presence felt because the Siants don’t possess a CB of Darrelle Revis’s caliber. In fact, we like all of the skill players, from WRs Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie, to TE Dallas Clark, to have a great deal of success against this secondary.

DC Gregg Williams will most likely employ a defense designed to keep everything in front of it. He did this against the Vikings. But Peyton Manning will recognize this early and methodically pick apart the secondary en route to long drives which end in TDs.

And when Williams decides to bring the blitz, Manning is one of the – if not the – best in the league at recognizing it and will make New Orleans pay.

Once the passing game gets going, expect RBs Joseph Addai and Donald Brown to see their share of touches. It’ll be primarily on stretch runs and draws but it’ll do just enough to keep New Orleans off balance so Peyton can execute play action passes.

When the Saints have the ball, Brees will be dealing. Like Manning, he’s extremely efficient and accurate when given time to pass. And if Freeney isn’t able to go, the Saints will then shift help over to DE Robert Mathis’s side of the field and Brees will have a nice pocket to locate the open receiver.

Look for WR Marques Colston to play a big role, as well as Devery Henderson or Robert Meachem, and any one of them could get behind the Colts secondary like Braylon Edwards did in the AFC Championship Game. The Saints will be able to use the play action effectively because RB Pierre Thomas should find a lot of success running against the Colts smaller D.

For the intermediate passing game, both TEs – Jeremy Shockey and Dave Thomas – will be used heavily throughout.

Out of the backfield, look for Pierre Thomas to be the primary ball handler.

As to Reggie Bush, he’ll have success both as a running back and receiver but we like him to make his presence felt more as a receiver in this one.

One thing to remember about this game is both teams are dome teams, and both rely heavily on their team speed. The Super Bowl is set to be played on the grass, so expect to see a different speed of the game than we’re used to seeing from them.

When Super Bowl XLIV is in the books, provided DE Dwight Freeney doesn’t play, look for the Saints, a 6 point underdog, to pull out the upset 31-28. (If Freeney can play and is effective, then we’ll side with the Colts by a TD, but all reports suggest he won’t be).

This will be a very even game offensively and defense is where it will be won.

Freeney’s loss will tip the scales in the Saints favor.

The news regarding Dwight Freeney’s ankle injury got a whole lot worse on Sunday and there’s a real chance he will be unable to play in the Super Bowl.

What was initially described as a minor ankle injury is really a torn ligament, and the pass rushing specialist’s availability, or if he plays, effectiveness, is in doubt.

How does this affect your betting strategy?

If Freeney is unable to go or limited, the Colts will have very few answers to stopping the Saints passing attack.

It used to be that when S Bob Sanders went down, the run defense disappeared. Well, Jim Caldwell and Co. have shored up that part of the defense and the Colts were able to absorb the star studded, but often injured Safety’s loss and play respectable run defense.

But losing Freeney would be particularly big because the Saints are a pass happy team. The Colts would be unable to generate a consistent pass rush with their front four and Drew Brees is as good as anyone when he has time to deliver the ball.

He’ll carve up the Colts secondary and trade score for score with Peyton Manning.

In fact, the loss of No. 93 would actually tip the scales in the Saints favor.

And the reason is we expect Gregg Williams defense to generate more of a pass rush on Peyton than Caldwell’s will get on Brees.

We’ll have our full analysis later in the week, but at this point, with the new news on Freeney, we’re leaning towards taking the Saints (+6), the Saints on the money line (+170), and the over (56.5).

The Colts started out as a 6 point favorite which is where they currently remain at Bodog.

While we like them at this number with their roster as is, word came out yesterday that their best defensive player, DE Dwight Freeney, had an ankle injury much worse than the team was letting on.

When the injury occurred late in the AFC Championship Game it didn’t look good at all.

He came down awkwardly on his ankle and immediately headed towards the sideline.

His day was done at that point thanks to the Colts commanding lead.

But if he’s forced to either miss the Super Bowl or is unable to be his normal self due to the injury, this impacts the game – and betting strategy – tremendously.

If either of the above scenarios are realized, the Saints will then shift help over to Robert Mathis’s side, who by the way is helped greatly by the attention paid towards Freeney, and the Colts pass rush will be effectively neutralized.

They’d then have to resort to more blitzes in an attempt to pressure Drew Brees and throw off his rhythm.

This scenario wouldn’t be favorable for Indianapolis. When Brees has time to throw, he’s deadly. He’ll distribute the ball around the field and pick apart the Colts secondary.

The Saints would also be able to go toe to toe with the Colts offense and keep things interesting until the end.

So keep an eye on his injury status prior to placing your bets.

As said in an earlier article, his is the one injury, outside of Peyton Manning, which could derail Indianapolis’s chances of winning the Super Bowl.

If he can go and play at a high level, we still like the Colts -6; if he can’t, take the Saints (+6) and the (+180) money line.

The early betting line is Colts -6.

This seems about right and at this point, looks tasty if you’re planning on placing money on Indy. The only thing to keep an eye on would be the injury to DE Dwight Freeney. According to various reports, Indianapolis is saying that he’ll be fine for the game.

And historically, he’s been a fast healer, so the extra week off should help.

But this is one injury which would be more damaging to the Colts – and the point spread – than any other besides Peyton Manning.

We’ll provide a more in-depth analysis closer to kick off, but one thing which we all know is the Saints are a vastly different team away from the Superdome than in it.

At home, they’re lightning quick, their routes are precise and they feed off the hometown crowd. And once they’ve been able to jump out to a lead, they’ve been able to bury teams.

But on the road, and in particular, on the grass, it’s a different story.  It took big rallies to pull off last minute wins against the lowly Redskins and Dolphins.

Indy on the hand is well versed playing anywhere. The grass doesn’t seem to affect their team speed and Peyton is Peyton whether at home or on the road.

And Miami also happens to be the home of their last Super Bowl Championship.

Best Bet

1. New York Jets (+7.5) vs. Indianapolis Colts

Sometimes it’s too difficult to tempt fate. This is one of those times. While we actually think the Colts will win a close one, it’s hard to imagine a scenario where they’ll win by more than 8. In fact, with the way the Jets are playing, both on defense as well as running the ball, we think it’ll be decided by less than four points.

And the reason for that is the Jets possess the most aggressive defense in the Playoffs and Peyton Manning struggles when he has pressure in his face. He gets happy feet and his throws are erratic.

New York will keep everything in front of them and bring waves after No. 18 to disrupt his timing.

Offensively, the Jets will continue to pound the ball in an attempt to shorten the game and keep Manning and Co. cold on the sidelines.

The 7.5 point spread is too much. Take the Jets plus the points and if you believe in fate, and that the stars have aligned to have the team the Colts could’ve eliminated (in Week 16) come back to knock them out of the Playoffs, bet the +250 money line too.

Next In Line

Minnesota Vikings (+3.5) vs. New Orleans Saints

The only reason Brett Favre came back was to have a chance at another ring. He’s 60 minutes away from realizing that goal.

While the Saints might possess a bit more potency on offense than the Vikings do, Minnesota is superior on defense.

And we think the defense will be the difference. The Saints are nearly unbeatable when they go up and down the field and score at will. Not only does it demoralize the opposing defense, it puts intense pressure on the offense to match them score for score. But we don’t see this happening against Leslie Frazier’s defense.

Instead, expect the Vikings to be able to move the ball on both the ground and through the air against the Saints and for its defense, once it has a lead, to pin their ears back and come after Brees.

The final score will be close, but take the 3.5 points as well as the money line (+150).

The story book ending Favre’s been looking for is very close to being realized.

This is the most exciting game of  the day. The NFC Championship Game features the two best teams in the Conference in 2009 and two of the best QBs in the game: Drew Brees and Brett Favre.

The Vikings, after stumbling down the stretch and backing in to the No.2 seed, dismantled the red hot Cowboys 34-3 in the Divisional Round.

The Saints, after losing their final three games of the regular season, came out roaring in the Divisional Round and demolished the Cardinals 45-14.

Onto this matchup:

When the Vikings have the ball, they’ll look to keep things balanced on offense. The Saints are especially effective when they can turn opposing offenses one dimensional, so look for Minnesota to mix RB Adrian Peterson in early and often.

New Orleans is vulnerable on the ground and we see No. 28 picking up big chunks of yards all day.

In order to limit Peterson’s effectiveness, New Orleans will be forced to bring a Safety into the box.

At that point, expect Favre to take to the air.

His primary targets will once again be WR Sindey Rice and Percy Harvin, both of whom should have strong games against the Saints secondary.

Harvin will be targeted primarily on short crossing routes and screens while Rice, whose developed into a top threat in 2009, will give the Saints smaller DBs fits all afternoon.

Coming off a three TD game vs. Dallas, look for at least one in this contest.

In the red zone, keep an eye on TE Visanthe Shiancoe. No. 4 loves to look his way near the goal line and the duo will hook up for a short score here.

When the Saints have the ball, Drew Brees will come out firing. When this team is hitting on all cylinders, as they were in their win over Arizona, he’s spreading the ball around to multiple receivers and picking up yards in bunches.

He’ll need to do so this week.

Facing the Vikings front four, look for New Orleans to incorporate a quick passing game to neutralize Frazier’s aggressive blitzing attack and keep Jared Allen and Co. off of Brees.

Using that attack, Brees should have a lot of success locating Colston, Henderson, Shockey and Bush on slants and quick outs. And once he gets into a rhythm, expect a few shots deep.

When they turn to the run, it’ll only be to eat up clock and wear down the Vikings D late in the game (provided they have a lead). The Vikings run defense is strong and New Orleans will find picking up yards on the ground hard to come by.

On top of that, RB Pierre Thomas, their best back, has been injured for much of the year and comes into this game with a leg injury.

While Reggie Bush enjoyed a breakout game on the ground vs. the Cards, it won’t happen this week. Instead, he’ll find most of his success as a receiver.

As the clock strikes 0:00, look for the Vikings, currently 3.5 point underdogs, to go into New Orleans and win 31-27. The one scenario which would doom the Vikings is to get into a situation where everyone knows Favre has to pass, i.e. get down by 10 points or more.

In those situations, he’s been known to make poor decisions and the Saints are one of the most opportunistic defenses in the league.

But we don’t see that happening.

We see a close game into the 4th quarter until the Vikings ground game and defense prove too much.

The New York Jets come into this game having won seven of their last eight, two of which were playoff victories on the road.

Last week, facing steep odds (7.5), they traveled cross country and wore down the heavily favored San Diego Chargers late with a physical running game and swarming defense.

The Indianapolis Colts road to this point has been far easier. After winning their initial 14 games, they created controversy by resting their starters and bypassing a chance at perfection in their Week 16 game against these very same Jets.

But they bounced back last week and smothered the Baltimore Ravens 20-3 in the Divisional Round.

The wonderful irony of this match-up is the Jets wouldn’t be in this situation had the Colts not given up in their Week 16 game.

Instead, they now find themselves facing this year’s Cinderella team which happens to feature the best running game and defense left in the Playoffs.

Onto the matchup:

When the Jets are on offense, not much is going to change from last week’s approach against the Chargers. They’re going to run the ball 65-70% of the time and try and keep Sanchez in manageable (3rd down) passing situations.

The Colts possess a much fiercer pass rush than the Chargers and New York doesn’t want to get into a situation where Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis can pin their ears back and come after Sanchez.

So look for rookie RB Shonn Grenne, the new star in town, to see a lot of action, and for Thomas Jones to be primarily used in short yardage situations and near the goal line.

The Jets should have success against the smaller Colts defense and once they do, look for Sanchez to locate Braylon Edwards, Jerricho Cotchery and Dustin Keller on quick passes.

In the course of the game, they’ll also take at least two shots down the field and provided they’re having success on the ground, could land one for a long TD.

QB/KR Brad Smith will also get between 3-5 direct snaps and run the Wild Cat. Indianapolis had tremendous issues stopping it vs. the Dolphins in Week 2 and could have similar problems on Sunday.

When the Colts have the ball, their offense, as usual, will run through Peyton Manning.

The Jets feature the league’s No. 8 run defense and the Colts were dead last in that department in 2009.

But the Jets are also No. 1 against the pass, so therein lies the dilemma.

For the Colts to attack this defense, they’re going to need to locate players other than Reggie Wayne. CB Darrelle Revis will be on Wayne’s side of the field and limit his effectiveness.

This means a lot of balls will be going in the direction of Dallas Clark, Austin Collie and Pierre Garcon. In order to beat the heavy pressure, expect a lot of slants and crossing routes.

One thing New York did last week was keep everything in front of their secondary. While this prevented the home run ball, it left huge holes open over the middle (of the field) which the Chargers exploited all afternoon.

The Colts will do the same.

And once the passing game gets going, they’ll then mix in Joseph Addai and Donald Brown in order to keep the defense honest.

Look for the draw play to be used heavily. When facing an attacking defense, if the RB can get past the first wave of players, they could find themselves running for a while.

The run will also make the play-action a little more effective, which Peyton is the master at.

We expect at least two ror three shots down the field to Garcon off of it.

When this one is in the record books, look for the Colts to advance to the Super Bowl with a 17-13 win.

While it’s very hard to pick against the Jets with the way they are playing, and this could go either way, the only reason they were able to steal last week’s game is because San Diego missed a few FGs and failed to put New York away early on when they had the chance.

Expecting that to happen two weeks in a row is too tall an order for us.

Best Bet

1. Dallas Cowboys (+2.5) vs. Minnesota Vikings

The Cowboys, as a 2.5 point underdog, are the best bet on the board this week. They’re coming into this game playing exceptional defense.

Outside of a garbage time TD in their win over the Eagles last week, to make the score 34-14, Dallas has allowed seven points in their last 12 quarters.

The Vikings are headed in a different direction. If we disregard their win over the Giants in the season finale, in a game New York failed to show up, they’ve lost three of their last four. And in that time frame, they haven’t run the ball well, their pass protection has been suspect, and their defense, following the loss of EJ Henderson, has been very ordinary.

Look for the Cowboys to not only cover the point spread, but to win outright. The money line is 120.

Next In Line

2.Arizona Cardinals (+7) vs. New Orleans Saints

The main thing going against the Cardinals is they’re playing on a short week. It’s just six days since their stunning 51-45 win over the Packers in OT.

Aside from that, this team is battle tested and used to these types of games.

The Saints on the other hand stumbled their way to the finish line. After winning their 1st 13 games, some by very close margins, the Cowboys beat them in Week 15, and the Buccaneers beat them the following week.

And while they treated their season finale as a pre season contest, they did suffer one big loss in DE Charles Grant.

Expect both Warner and Brees to put points on the board, but for the Cards defense to make a few more plays in the end.

Not only do we like Arizona to cover, we like them straight up on the money line (+210) too.

3. Indianapolis Colts (-6.5) vs. Baltimore Ravens

The Colts are well rested and get the Ravens at home on a short week.

If Peyton Manning and the offense come out strong and put points on the board, something Tom Brady and Co. failed to do last week, it’ll limit the Ravens ability to run the ball with Ray Rice and Willis McGahee. And that’s the only shot they’ve got to keep this close… or win in the end.

If they fall behind early and need Joe Flacco to out duel Manning, you can forget about it. It’ll be pick central for the Colts’ DBs.

Look for the Colts to pull out the 24-14 victory and advance to the AFC Title Game.

4. New York Jets (+7.5) vs. San Diego Chargers

The Jets, like the Ravens above, have a shot to steal this game provided they jump out to a lead. That scenario would allow them to run the ball and not force Mark Sanchez to have to do too much behind center.

They’d also be able to bring heavy pressure after Rivers.

Even if they don’t grab the lead, expect a close contest throughout, as both teams are playing at a high level right now, but look for the Jets, and their stellar defense, to keep the game within a TD.