• 2018 & 2020 Election Measures
• Policy Expectations
• 2018 in Review & Economic Outlook
• Party Feeling Thermometers
• Additional Feeling Thermometer Items

From the GOP side of the aisle, while Republicans are not happy to have lost the House, it is easy to appreciate that Nancy Pelosi is back as Speaker, as she is such a clear liability to the Democratic Party as Speaker of the House. Pelosi has high sustained net negative favorable ratings, a lower net favorable rating than Speaker Gingrich when he resigned from the House, and a higher net negative rating among Independents than Donald Trump! Her suggested H.R. 1 reflects the hubris of a new majority. To see more data and commentary, click here: Nancy Pelosi Charts – Post-Elect National Update

Having half or more Americans agree with the idea that these systems are “stacked against” people like them is nothing new. In fact, more Americans agreed with this assertion the four times we asked this same question in the NBC-WSJ survey in 2012 through 2015 than agree today.

The country was equally divided, as it is now, several times over the last 26 years since this question was first asked. These instances include measures taken before the 2016, 2010, and 1992 elections – each of which were consequential change elections that altered the direction of our politics and policies.

When we have measured this after significant national events, like the change election of 2016 and in July 2002 with the 9/11 attacks still fresh in our national psyche, majorities of voters have rejected this assertion.

Of course, there are gaps in the data that are worth noting. Namely the entirety of American history before September 1992. Also, since then, we don’t know at all how Americans were feeling between 2002 and 2010. That was a particularly turbulent stretch for both our economy and political systems which included Hurricane Katrina, the Democratic wave election of 2006, two wars, a deep economic recession, the election of Barack Obama and the first two years of the Obama presidency.

So, suffice it to say, we haven’t asked this question regularly enough to know how every political or economic event impacted these broad attitudes or whether or not we have measured the MOST impactful event.

But what the latest data suggests is that the 2018 midterm election result, a split decision with Republicans losing the U.S. House but increasing their number of seats in the U.S. Senate, has done nothing to soothe the partisan strain of the past two years of the Trump administration, or the decades of deepening division that preceded that.

What may be most important to understand is just how dramatically these broad attitudes about the economic and political systems have shifted by party since the election of President Trump.

Indeed, at 60%, the level of agreement with this statement is as high among Democrats as it was before Clinton won in 1992. Meaning that after just two years of the Trump administration Democrats as where they were after 12 years of Republican presidents occupying the Oval Office. Of course, to attribute this entirely to Trump assumes all other factors in American politics and across economic systems have been  the same as 1992, which they are not.

At 38%, Republican agreement with this sentiment is as low as it was in 1992. And, it is clear from the Obama-era data points that Republicans are also susceptible to feeling set upon by the presence and policies of a president of the opposing party. But even during the rise of the Tea Party, Republicans were no more incensed than Democrats and Independents were.

Today, just 48% of Independents say they agree that our economic and political systems are stacked against people like them, lower than the percentages that said so across most measures in the Obama years.

The fact that Democrats increasingly feel the system is stacked against them, even after historic turnout for a mid-term election that resulted in their political situation significantly improving, suggests that we’re not yet done with the deep partisan fights that have colored our politics for so long. At this point, it is hard to imagine what might calm this long-standing tension.

Click here to read and learn more about the major trends that emerged this cycle: 2018 Post-Elect National Update Presentation Final

The Year of the Woman was undoubtedly more successful on the Democrat side of the aisle.  Republicans elected only one new female Republican Member of Congress.  And the numbers of Republican women holding legislative seats dwindled relative to the number of Democrat women.

Female voters this year were unreceptive to the GOP pitch.  The gender gap on election day was bigger than it has ever been – a net 23 points – in congressional preference according to exit polls dating back to 2006.  Women who live in the suburbs are an important part of the story.

Historically, Republicans have been very competitive – even winning – among suburban women.  2018 was markedly different.  Not since 2008 have we seen a deficit for Republicans this large among this sub-group.

Clearly, there is considerable volatility among suburban women.  They don’t just represent a problem for Republicans.  As the data from 2010 indicates, Democrats have not been immune from the judgement of these women.

The swings in the suburbs come largely among those who consider themselves Independent.  There was not an inordinate amount of defection among Republicans (7% voting Democrat) and certainly very little among Democrats (2% voting Republican).  But by a whopping 2-to-1 margin, Republicans got shellacked among Independent suburban women.Many of these women wanted to send a message with their vote – Republicans wanted to show their support for the President, while a huge number of Democratic women wanted to do nothing more than express their opposition.  Independent women were less inclined to agree their vote meant something – but for those who did want to say something, it was not in support for the President.

Republicans maintained a slim advantage among married women and performed better among those without a college degree.  However, college-educated women firmly rejected the Republican option, as did non-married women.

Health care meant a lot to suburban women – nearly one quarter said it was the most important issue in deciding how to vote.  And, when health care was their number one issue, Republicans were demolished on the ballot.

Republicans had their own big advantages among the women for whom immigration and the economy were the most important issues, but not enough to overcome the primacy of health care as an election issue and the huge disadvantage for Republicans on this issue.

NOTE: All data included is from Public Opinion Strategies Election Night Surveys.

A quick refresher: even before the allegations had been made, Kavanaugh’s nomination had set a record for eliciting the weakest support in the initial Gallup read of any nomination since 1991 at just +4% (41% to confirm/37% not to confirm). Fox showed a similar spread of +6 (38% to confirm/32% not to confirm). This was driven by record low support and record high opposition among the party opposite the nominating president – in this case, the Democrats.  See the table below:

By the time the dust settled and Kavanaugh was confirmed on October 6, his nomination had set two additional Gallup records.

• First, the final Gallup read just prior to his confirmation showed a record high 45% of Americans opposed to his confirmation (46% to confirm/45% not to confirm).
• Second, Kavanaugh’s already-low numbers with Democrats worsened slightly to 13%, contributing to a 71% gap – the highest ever recorded between the two parties on a SCOTUS nominee – with Republican support for confirmation clocking in at 84%.

I hypothesized last year that SCOTUS nominees following Neil Gorsuch would 1) likely fall short of the average support for SCOTUS nominees overall (which I pegged at 51%) and 2) would continue to register majority opposition among the opposing party. The Kavanaugh episode supports this hypothesis, and it’s likely to get worse with any future nominees, particularly if they are nominated by President Trump.

It is not surprising that the final Gallup read on the Kavanaugh nomination set such negative records. Democrats were clearly following through on their promised all-out assault on the Kavanaugh nomination during the regularly scheduled hearings, and given the nature of the allegations to come, insofar as public opinion goes, these blows took a toll. What Democrats likely did not expect, however, was that as Kavanaugh’s numbers dipped, Democratic voters’ enthusiasm advantage would also fade away.

Take a look at the table below, which shows the percentage of Republicans and Democrats who rated their interest in the midterm elections as 10 or 9-10 on a scale of 1-10, with ten being extremely interested. This data comes from the NBC-WSJ poll, for which POS is the Republican partner.

Democrats had a decided enthusiasm advantage over Republicans in August, just ahead of the post-Labor Day homestretch.  The Washington Post piece on Dr. Ford’s allegation was published on September 16, just as the NBC-WSJ survey was about to field (9/16-19), though the allegation was being teased in the days prior. It’s possible the uptick in GOP enthusiasm in the September survey is a function of both Democrats’ antics during the regular hearings and the incipient appearance of foul play on the part of Senate Judiciary Committee Democrats regarding Dr. Ford’s confidential letter.

Then came the September 27 hearing at which Dr. Ford and Justice Kavanaugh testified. By the October NBC-WSJ read, when voters had had two weeks to digest the testimony of both parties, Republican enthusiasm had shot up by 15 points (10s) and 16 points (9-10s) since August; Democratic enthusiasm had also increased, but not commensurately.  The GOP surge would continue.

By Election Day, Democrats’ “10 advantage” had been erased, as Republicans rating their interest as a 10 had increased by 23 points (Democrats by 11 points). Similarly, by Election Day, Republicans who rated their interest as a 9 or 10 had shot up by 20 points (Democrats by 10 points), totally melting the Democrats’ 9-10 advantage.  Among core partisans on Election Day, the 9-10’s were tied at 80%, and core Republicans bested core Democrats on the 10’s, 76%-73%.  Contrast that with the August data, when core Democrats bested core Republicans on the 10’s, 63%-53%.

Was this rousing of Republican voters a consequence of Kavanaugh alone?  It is impossible to say, but probably not. Trump’s focus on immigration likely also played a role, as did the tragic shooting in Pittsburgh. It is likely, however, that the Kavanaugh confirmation battle played an outsized role: in addition to setting new polling records on SCOTUS nominations, election interest data indicates that Kavanaugh’s baptism by fire certainly helped to ignite the Republican base and possibly stave off Democratic hopes of re-taking the Senate.

Polling for NBC News and The Wall Street Journal is conducted by Republican pollster Bill McInturff and Democratic pollster Fred Yang. This analysis is my own and does not necessarily reflect the views of NBC, The Wall Street Journal, or Hart Research Associates.

To read the full release, please click here: Farm to Fork Initiative Survey Release Final.

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

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PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES POLLS IN FIVE SUCCESSFUL GUBERNATORIAL RACES AND FOR TEN NEW MEMBERS OF CONGRESS

The survey research firm of Public Opinion Strategies (POS) polled for winning candidates in eleven of the highest profile Gubernatorial races this year, in five of the big GOP wins in Senate races, and for ten new Members of Congress this election cycle. Including independent expenditure efforts, Public Opinion Strategies polled in 16 Senate and Gubernatorial statewide victories and more than 50 Congressional victories.

Major statewide winners were:

• Re-elected Governor Doug Ducey of Arizona.
• Governor-elect Brian Kemp of Georgia, who came from behind to win both his primary and general election races, leading Stacey Abrams with a run-off unlikely.
• Governor Kim Reynolds of Iowa, who won her first election on the top-of-the-ticket to become the state’s first woman Governor.
• Governor-elect Kristi Noem, who came from behind to become the first woman
  governor of South Dakota.
• Re-elected Governor Phil Scott of Vermont.
• Re-elected Senator Roger Wicker of Mississippi.
• Re-elected Attorneys General Leslie Rutledge of Arkansas and Ken Paxton of Texas.

POS also conducted polling for SuperPACs/Party Committees in the Senate races in Arizona (not yet decided), North Dakota, Tennessee, and Texas, as well as winning gubernatorial races in Alaska, Idaho, New Hampshire, Ohio, Oklahoma, and Tennessee.

POS handled the polling for ten new Republican Members of Congress this cycle, including Debbie Lesko (AZ 8 special election), Young Kim (CA 39, leading at press time), Greg Steube (FL 17), Steve Watkins (KS 2), Troy Balderson (OH 12 special election), Guy Reschenthaler (PA 14), Dusty Johnson (SD AL), Van Taylor (TX 3), Ben Cline (VA 6), and Bryan Steil (WI 1). The firm also polled for numerous winning House incumbents and as part of SuperPAC/IE teams in 52 races.

As of this morning, only seven Republicans won election or are leading in the 25 seats held by GOPers that Hillary Clinton won in 2016. The firm polled for six of the seven campaigns.

The firm polled for winning legislative campaigns in 14 states: Alabama, Arizona, California, Indiana, Kentucky, Michigan, Missouri, New York, Ohio, Oklahoma, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Tennessee and Texas.

The firm also conducted the opinion research which guided successful ballot issues in 13 states: Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Kentucky, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio, and South Dakota.

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Our election night poll of 1,600 voters shows a record 68% of voters saying their vote was to send a signal to President Trump, but opponents to the President outnumbered supporters by a relatively narrow 37%-31% margin.

As is usually the case in midterm elections, Independent voters led the way for the party gaining seats – voting Democrat by a 53%-41% margin.

Voters’ issue agenda, dominated by the economy in the last midterm, was focused yesterday on health care, the economy and immigration.

While the pre-election focus has been on white suburban women, this poll shows wide gender gaps between men and women regardless of geography.

Don’t look now, but for a growing percentage of Americans election day may no longer be in November – more than 40% of voters, the highest percentage ever, say they cast their ballot before election day.

To learn more about the Public Opinion Strategies Election Night Survey results, please click here to review the Executive Summary slide deck.

Please click here to read more from our latest NBC/WSJ survey: Major Polling Stories of the 2018 Cycle