PollTrack: Writing on the Wall

PollTrack Will Be Back On Monday, 9 November, With Full Reporting

2009-11-06T02:26:06Z

Polling Highly Inaccurate in NY-23

2009-11-05T13:26:43Z

Polls in NY-23 were highly inaccurate, in the end, for three reasons: [1] congressional districts are very difficult to sample, with too small a population to get a readable and representative sample. [2] the race was highly volatile [3] one candidate dropped out, thus making it almost impossible to gauge where here supporters would ultimately wind up over such a short time period. The polling director of Public Policy Polling, which was way off in its numbers in the district, writes: ""I made a poor judgment call by not just killing it when Scozzafava dropped out and then endorsed Owens. Like any pollster we will make mistakes, we will just try not to make the same ones twice. Obviously the bizarre machinations in the race last weekend made it extremely volatile and if we ever a poll a race this strange again we will make better decisions (or maybe make the most prudent decision to just sit such a contest out!) But I apologize for putting bad information out there, it is very embarrassing."

Anti-Gay Marriage Forces Win In Maine

2009-11-04T15:39:26Z

With nearly all precincts in, the anti-gay marriage forces have won the referendum to reject the state's recent legislative action to allow gay couples to marry:

NY-23: Democrat Owens Projected Winner

2009-11-04T04:58:49Z

Democrat Bill Owens has been projected the winner in the special election in New York's 23rd congressional district.

Maine Gay Marriage Vote: Razor Close, Now With Gay Marriage Opponents Leading

2009-11-04T04:15:36Z

Razor close in Maine, with opponents of gay marriage now maintaining a slight edge:

Bloomberg Wins In New York

2009-11-04T03:53:25Z

Several news organizations have declared Michael Bloomberg as the winner of the Mayor's race in New York City over his Democratic Challenger, Bill Thompson.

NY-23: Close, With Democrat Leading

2009-11-04T03:51:58Z

With 63% of precincts reporting in the special election in New York's 23rd Congresional District, Democrat Bill Owens leads, but the race remains close:

Scozzafava (r) 5%

Owens (d) 49.3%

Hoffman (I) 45.5%

Looks Like A Bloomberg Victory In New York

2009-11-04T03:26:29Z

With Mike Bloomberg opening a modest +3% lead in New York City--and the borough of Queens, the independent mayor's strongest turf, holding the lion's share of votes still out--it looks like the incumbent mayor is headed for victory. Stay tuned.

AP Projection: Republican Chris Christie Wins In New Jersey

2009-11-04T03:10:38Z

The Associated Press projects Republican Chris Christie the winner over incumbent Democrat Jon Corzine in New Jersey's gubernatorial race.

Maine Gay Marriage Vote: It Could Not Get Any Closer

2009-11-04T03:06:07Z

While the vast majority of votes have yet to be counted--only 132 precincts have now reported out of 605--the vote on Maine's gay marriage referendum could not get any closer:

MSNBC Reverses Projection In New York Mayor's Race

2009-11-04T03:52:38Z

NBC has reversed its projection of Independent Michael Bloomberg as the winner of the Mayor's race in New York City over his Democratic Challenger, Bill Thompson. Stay tuned.

Gay Marriage Vote Close In Maine

2009-11-04T02:40:59Z

The pro-Gay marriage forces ahead in Maine, but the vote on the referendum grows still closer, with just 100 of 605 precincts reporting:

Gay Marriage Ahead, But Vote Grows Closer

2009-11-04T02:21:16Z

The pro-Gay marriage forces remain ahead in Maine, but the vote on the referendum grows closer, still with just 79 of 605 precincts reporting:

No Exit Polls In New York City

2009-11-04T02:15:00Z

For those of you waiting for a projection in New York City's mayoral race, a note of caution: be patient. There were no exit polls in New York City, so the race will be called the old fashioned way--with raw numbers.

Gay Marriage Ahead In Maine

2009-11-04T02:06:02Z

As of 9:00 PM, with 32 of 605 precincts reporting, the supporters of gay marriage are leading (no is PRO gay marriage:

Projection: Republicans Sweep All Statewide Contests In VA

2009-11-04T01:27:02Z

CNN projects that Republicans will sweep all three statewide races in Virginia: governor, lieutenant governor, and attorney general.

Independent Voters In New Jersey Breaking For Republican

2009-11-04T01:29:56Z

Exit polls in New Jersey suggest that independent voters are breaking for Republican Chris Christie by a wide, +20%, margin over incumbent Democratic Governor Jon Corzine. Once again, these voters are behaving very differently from last year, where New Jersey independents supported President Obama by a considerable margin.

UPDATE: Christie appears to be winning independent voters by 25%

Exit Polls In New Jersey Suggest A Tight Race

2009-11-04T01:04:44Z

It looks like a long night in New Jersey as Exit Polls suggests a very tight race.

AP Projection: Republican Bob McDonnell Wins VA Gubernatorial Race

2009-11-04T00:56:38Z

The Associated Press projects that Republican Bob McDonnell has won the Virginia gubernatorial election over his Democratic opponent Creigh Deeds.

VA Governor's Race: Young Voters Stayed Home

2009-11-04T00:15:17Z

According to exit polls, only 10% of young voters showed up in Virginia today, versus 20% in last year's election. Again, bad news for Democrat Deeds. Another issue: does this drop off--as well as the loss of independent voters--also suggest a weakening of the Obama coalition?