PollTrack: Presidential Race

Obama Approval Up Slightly

2009-11-09T14:02:21Z

As of Sunday evening, PollTrack reports a slight increase in President Obama's aggregate approval rating. 51.8% now have a positive view of the president's performance; 45.0% a negative one. Obama's negative rating, which has slowly increased each week over the past few months, continues to represent a trouble spot for the president.

PollTrack Will Be Back On Monday, 9 November, With Full Reporting

2009-11-06T02:27:07Z

Election 2009: Did Obama's Base Hold?

2009-11-05T13:26:25Z

Another problem for the Democrats in Tuesday's election: parts of the Obama coalition--responsible for his easy victory last year--did not hold. As MSNBC notes: "Obama’s Base Is No Longer Fired Up And Ready To Go . . . According to the exit polls, just 10% of the voters in Virginia were under the age of 30, down from 21% last year. What’s more, McDonnell won 18-29 year olds, 54%-44%. Also in Virginia yesterday, African Americans made up 16% of the vote, down from 20% last year. And then there’s this: 51% of yesterday’s voters in Virginia said they voted for McCain, while just 43% said they voted for Obama. Folks, Obama won this state last year by a nearly 53%-46% margin."

Indepdendent Voters Made The Difference And Now Spell Trouble For The Democrats

2009-11-04T16:00:52Z

President Obama's approval rating on election day was at 50%. This number suggests a problem for the Democrats, especially to the extend that it reflects a drop off in independent voter support. Indeed, it was the dramatic decline in the support of unaffiliated and independent voters that gave Republicans a decided advantage in Virginia and New Jersey. The situation with indepdendents was dire: Republican Christie won independent voters in New Jersey by 30 points (60%-30%); Obama won them 51%-47% last year. McDonnell in Virginia won indies by 33 points (66%-33%); Obama held a slight 49%-48% last year.With a nation closely divided between the two mainstream parties, independents can now tip the balance in states and localities where party registration is relatively even. In New Jersey, the message is even more dire for the Democrats: with Democrats enjoying a significant advantage in party identification, Jon Corzine still lost. Does this prefigure Democratic loses in the 2010 midterms? Hard to tell this early. But PollTrack will be watching independent voters--as well as the President's approval numbers--very closely in the coming months.

Obama's Approval Down Slightly

2009-11-02T14:42:55Z

As of Sunday evening, President Obama's aggregate approval rating has decreased a full percentage point from last week's aggregate number, according to PollTrack's latest calculation: Approve: 50.5% to Disapprove: 43.2%.

Huckabee Leads GOP Pack For 2012 Presidential Nomination

2009-10-30T14:17:58Z

According to a new CNN/Opinion Research survey, 32% of GOP voters say they would support Mike Huckabee (R), followed by Sarah Palin (R) at 25%, Mitt Romney at 21% and Tim Pawlenty at 5% for the 2012 Republican nomination for president. The survey concludes: "Huckabee appears to have more support among Republicans than Palin and her unfavorable rating among all Americans is twice as high as Huckabee's. Palin may attract a lot of attention but the GOP may be looking elsewhere for their frontrunner."

GOP Favorability Slips

2009-10-29T13:47:22Z

According to a new CNN/Opinion Research survey, the "Republican Party's favorable rating among Americans is at lowest level in at least a decade, according to a new national poll. 36% of people questioned "say they have a favorable opinion of the Republican Party, with 54 percent viewing the GOP negatively. According to the poll, 53 percent have a positive opinion of the Democratic Party, with 41 percent holding an unfavorable view. The survey indicates that favorable ratings for the Democrats have dropped 5 points since February, with the Republican number slipping 3 points. 'The Republican party may still be battling the legacy left to them by George W. Bush," says CNN Polling Director Keating Holland. 'They have also spent a lot of time in 2009 working against Democratic proposals. That hasn't left them a lot of time so far this year to present a positive, post-Bush message. Of course, there is still plenty of time for them to do so before the 2010 midterms.'"

Support For "Public Option" At An All-Time High

2009-10-28T13:43:30Z

A new NBC/Wall Street Journal poll reports that support for the so-called "public option"--a government-run insurance plan--at its highest level since the debate began with 48% in favor of the idea while 42% oppose it.

Vice-President Biden's Favorability Rating Collapses

2009-10-27T14:22:35Z

According to a new Gallup survey, Vice-President Joe Biden's favorability rating has reached an all-time low: "After peaking at 59% last November, Biden's favorable rating continues to decline and now stands at 42%. That barely exceeds his 40% unfavorable rating, and is easily his worst evaluation since last year's Democratic National Convention. Biden's favorable rating has dropped by five or six points each of the last three times Gallup has updated it -- in January, before Barack Obama's inauguration; in July; and in the most recent poll. . . . The source of the decline -- by party affiliation -- has varied over time. During the post-election to pre-inauguration phase, Biden's favorable rating dropped significantly among Democrats, but it has been fairly steady since, and remains strong at 73%. Republicans had relatively low opinions of Biden even at the peak of his popularity, with 33% holding a favorable opinion of him. Those views did not change appreciably until after he took office, but Republicans' views of Biden have declined in both post-inauguration readings, and now stand at 18% favorable. Independents' opinions of Biden have declined more steadily since the post-election high mark, and now 32% of independents view the vice president favorably."

Obama Approval Up This Week

2009-10-26T13:52:41Z

As of Sunday evening, President Obama's aggregate approval rating has increased somewhat over last's week's 50.3% aggregate number, according to PollTrack's latest calculation: Approve: 51.5% to Disapprove: 44.5%. Once again, the President's approval number, but now elevated disapproval rating suggests the possibility of trouble ahead for the administration.

Obama Continues To Lead Hypothetical 2012 Challengers

2009-10-23T14:49:33Z

According to a new Public Policy Polling analysis, "Barack Obama continues to lead his most likely 2012 rivals in hypothetical contests for reelection. Obama leads Mike Huckabee 47-43, Mitt Romney 48-40, Sarah Palin 52-40, and Tim Pawlenty 50-30.
This is the seventh time PPP has conducted this poll and the seventh time Huckabee has polled closest to Obama. Speaking to the weakness of the field of potential Republican candidates he's the only with a positive favorability rating and even then it's only 33/29. Huckabee's doing well because he connects better than the other GOP hopefuls with voters in the Midwest and South. For instance while Romney, Palin, and Pawlenty trail by 9, 17, and 18 points respectively in the Midwest Huckabee is down by just 3, something that could be a good omen for his prospects of again winning the Iowa primary as he did in 2008."

Obama Quarterly Approval Decline Worst On Record

2009-10-22T14:44:53Z

"In Gallup Daily tracking that spans Barack Obama's third quarter in office (July 20 through Oct. 19), the president averaged a 53% job approval rating. That is down sharply from his prior quarterly averages, which were both above 60%. In fact, the 9-point drop in the most recent quarter is the largest Gallup has ever measured for an elected president between the second and third quarters of his term, dating back to 1953. One president who was not elected to his first term -- Harry Truman -- had a 13-point drop between his second and third quarters in office in 1945 and 1946." Here is Gallup's Chart:

Voters Mostly Negative On Sarah Palin

2009-10-21T15:09:08Z

According to Gallup, Sarah Palin's national standing remains relatively low: "Palin became a bit of a sensation after John McCain tapped her as his running mate last August. But over the course of the campaign, her image suffered, going from a 53% favorable rating immediately after the 2008 Republican National Convention to 42% by the end of the campaign. Palin's ratings have not recovered, and her current 40% favorable rating is the lowest for her since she became widely known after last year's Republican convention."As for her chances in 2012, Gallup finds that sge is still popular with the Republican base, faring competitively against other GOP leaders like Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney: "Palin could compete for the 2012 nomination because she is still widely liked by Republicans -- 69% have a favorable opinion of her while only 25% view her unfavorably. But she may have difficulty succeeding in the general election, given that Democrats have overwhelmingly negative opinions of her, and independents view her more negatively than positively."

Support For "Public Option" Remains High

2009-10-20T13:57:26Z

According to a new Washington Post/ABC News poll, "support for a government-run health-care plan to compete with private insurers has rebounded from its summertime lows and wins clear majority support from the public. . . On the issue that has been perhaps the most pronounced flash point in the national debate, 57 percent of all Americans now favor a public insurance option, while 40 percent oppose it. Support has risen since mid-August, when a bare majority, 52 percent, said they favored it. . . .If a public plan were run by the states and available only to those who lack affordable private options, support for it jumps to 76 percent. Under those circumstances, even a majority of Republicans, 56 percent, would be in favor of it, about double their level of support without such a limitation."

Obama Approval Drops Slightly

2009-10-25T15:27:15Z

As of Sunday evening, President Obama's aggregate approval rating has dropped slightly, according to PollTrack's latest calculation: Approve: 50.3% to Disapprove: 45%. What may be more telling about these numbers is not the President's approval number, but his consistently rising disapproval rating, now at an all time high since he took office.

Two-Thirds of Americans Support Death Penalty

2009-10-16T13:44:24Z

Gallup reports in its annual Crime Survey that 65% of Americans continue to support the use of the death penalty for persons convicted of murder, while 31% oppose it. These numbers continue a trend that has shown little change over the last six years. Gallup continues: "Gallup's death-penalty data stretch back more than seven decades -- making attitudes toward the death penalty one of Gallup's oldest trends. Gallup's earliest reading, in 1936, found that 59% of Americans supported the use of the death penalty in cases of murder, compared to 38% who opposed it. The all-time high level of 80% support came in September 1994, just before the midterm elections that swept Democrats out of power and at a time when Americans most often cited crime as the most important problem facing the nation. The low points came in the period of time from the mid-1950s through the early 1970s. During some of this time, the death penalty was illegal, and support dropped as low as 42% in 1966."

Voters Skeptical About Afghan War

2009-10-15T13:41:36Z

According to a new Rasmussen survey, American voters "aren’t brimming with confidence that the United States can win the war in Afghanistan, but, despite news reports of a worsening situation there, support for a continued U.S. military presence in the country is unchanged. [The poll] finds that 45% of voters believe it is possible for the United States to win the eight-year-old war in Afghanistan. 29% do not think a U.S. victory is possible there, and another 25% aren’t sure. But 52% of voters continue to believe that no firm timetable should be set for the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan . . . 58% of men say America can win the war in Afghanistan. Women are evenly divided. 60% of Republicans say a U.S. victory is possible, a view shared by just 35% of Democrats and 41% of voters not affiliated with either party."

Rasmussen: Voters Split on Health Care Plan

2009-10-14T13:49:58Z

Record Low Support For Stricter Gun Laws

2009-10-13T13:39:43Z

According to a new Gallup survey, a record low of 44% of Americans say the laws covering firearm sales should be made more strict. That is down 5 points in the last year and 34 points from the high of 78% recorded the first time the question was asked, in 1990. Here is Gallup's chart:

US Voters Oppose Health Insurance "Penalty"

2009-10-12T13:49:43Z

According to a new Rasmussen survey, a majority of US voters oppose the provision in health care legislation that would require young and healthy Americans to either buy health insurance or pay a $750 annual penalty for not having it. 55% of U.S. voters now oppose that proposal; just 32% of voters think young and healthy Americans should be forced to purchase health insurance or else pay a penalty. 14% are not sure. Among voters ages 18 to 29, 29% favor the provision, known as “the individual mandate,” while 57% are opposed to it.