PollTrack: Presidential Race

Are Democrats Too Complacent In Massachusetts?

2013-05-20T20:04:14Z

Stuart Rothenberg notes that democratic complacency in the 2013 special election in Massachusetts to fill the US Senate seat vacated by John Kerry could backfire: "The special election . . . took an interesting turn this week, when former Navy SEAL Gabriel Gomez drew more than 50 percent of the vote to win the GOP nomination. . . . The total GOP primary vote was less than what Lynch received in the Democratic race, and the Bay State’s Democratic bent is undeniable. But Gomez has an interesting story, and at least the GOP didn’t nominate an old white guy who had served in the Massachusetts Legislature. . . Democrats won’t allow themselves to be surprised the way they were when Scott P. Brown beat Martha Coakley in the last Senate special election, in early 2010, and the national party’s image can’t do anything but hurt Gomez’s already uphill chances. But there is no reason to rush to judgment on this race, at least for a couple of weeks, and it’s worth watching to see how it unfolds. Obviously, Markey begins as the clear favorite.

Clinton Way Ahead For 2016 Democratic Nomination

2013-05-15T06:29:28Z

A new poll by Quinnipiac reports former US Senator and First Lady Hillary Clinton holds a commanding lead over other potential 2016 candidates for the Democratic presidential nomination, with 65%, followed by Joe Biden at 13% and Andrew Cuomo at 4%.

PPP Survey: Mixed Result About Obama's Effectiveness as President

2013-05-14T08:25:15Z

A new Pew Research poll reports mixed results on voter's attitudes about President Obama's performance in office: just 49% believes that President Obama is "able to get things done," a steep decline from 57% in January and closer to his levels of confidence in 2012. Conversely, and a net positive for the president, the vast majority of Americans, 67%, believe Obama is fighting hard for his policies, a significant improvement.

Tight Mayoral Race In LA

2013-05-13T06:39:53Z

A poll by the Pat Brown Institute of Public Affairs reports that Wendy Greuel and Eric Garcetti are in a virtual dead heat in the Los Angeles mayoral race, where Greuel leads Garcetti by a scant +2%--46% to 45%--among likely voters; 9% remain undecided. The elections is on 21 May 21.

Markey Ahead In MA Special Election, But By How Much?

2013-05-10T12:22:20Z

Two conflicting polls on the state of the special election to fill Secretary of State's John Kerry's US Senate seat: a new WBUR poll in Massachusetts reports that Democrat Rep. Edward Markey leads Republican Gabriel Gomez, 41% to 35%. This would suggest a very competitive race. But a contemporaneous Suffolk University poll finds Markey ahead by 17% points, 52% to 35%.

Republican Leads In VA Governor's Race

2013-05-09T12:16:11Z

For decades, the Virginia gubernatorial election has been a bellwether of sorts: the candidate from the opposing party of the president of the United States wins. Will 2013 be an exception. Possibly not. According to a new poll from the Washington Post, Republican Ken Cuccinelli holds an early lead over Democrat Terry McAuliffe in their race for governor, 46% to 41% among all voters and 51% to 41% among those voters most likely to cast a ballot.

MA US Senate Race: Headed For Upset?

2013-05-08T11:54:38Z

Is the special election to fill the US Senate seat vacated by John Kerry in Massachusetts head for an upset, much like the race to fill the seat of the late-Edward Kennedy? Possibly. A new survey by Public Policy Polling reports that the race is a surprisingly close , with Democrat Rep. Ed Markey leading Republican Gabriel Gomez by just +4%--44% to 40%.

Majority Not Concerned About Sequestration Cuts

2013-05-07T12:10:49Z

According to Gallup, "a majority of Americans still don't know enough to say whether the federal budget sequestration cuts are a good thing or a bad thing for the country -- as has generally been the case since they went into effect. But of those who do who have an opinion, more continue to say sequestration is a bad thing, rather than a good thing." Here is Gallup's chart.

Is Sanford Bouncing Back In SC?

2013-05-06T14:01:49Z

A new survey by Public Policy Polling in South Carolina's 1st congressional district reports that the special election is too close to call. But it also shows a marked reversal of Republican Mark Sanford's standing in the district. Two weeks ago, PPP showed his Democratic challenger, Elizabeth Colbert Busch, leading by nine points, 50% to 41%. Today, the poll reports that the race is too close to call, with Sanford edging Colbert Busch by +1%--47% to 46%.

Rubio Holds Tiny Lead For 2016 GOP Nomination

2013-05-03T14:21:03Z

A new poll for Fairleigh Dickinson University reports that there is no clear frontrunner for the 2016 GOP presidential primary. If the election were held today, Marco Rubio 18% would hold a slight lead, followed by Jeb Bush 16%, Chris Christie 14%, and Rick Santorum at 9%.

Majority Oppose US Military Action In Syria and N. Korea

2013-05-02T13:33:00Z

According to a new survey by the New York Times, most Americans oppose US military action in Syria and North Korea: "62% of the public say the United States has no responsibility to do something about the fighting in Syria between government forces and antigovernment groups, while just one-quarter disagree. Likewise, 56% say North Korea is a threat that can be contained for now without military action, just 15% say the situation requires immediate American action and 21% say the North is not a threat at all."

Hillary Clinton Way Ahead For 2016 Democratic Nomination

2013-05-01T11:48:21Z

If there was any doubt that Hillary Clinton is the prohibitive favorite for the 2016 Democratic nomination for President, anew Fairleigh Dickinson University poll puts those doubts to rest: Clinton leads with 63%, followed by Joe Biden 12%, Andrew Cuomo 3%.

Majority Support Gun Background Checks

2013-04-30T12:38:51Z

A new survey by Gallup reports that 65% of Americans believe the U.S. Senate should have passed the measure that would have expanded background checks for gun purchases: 29% agree with the Senate's refusal to pass the measure

Toomey's Approval Up In PA

2013-04-29T10:54:10Z

A survey by Quinnipiac reports that US Senator Pat Toomey's co-sponsorship of the gun background-check amendment has helped push the Republican's approval rate to 48%, the highest point of his three-plus-year term. 30% disapprove of his performance.

Kasich Improves Standing In Ohio

2013-04-26T14:01:51Z

In s dramatic political turnaround, a new Quinnipiac poll in Ohio reports that 52% of voters now approve of Republican Gov. John Kasich. In hypothetical match ups, he leads two potential Democratic challengers, besting Ed Fitzgerald, 46% to 37%, and Richard Cordray, 45% to 38%.

Who Is Ahead In MA Senate Race?

2013-04-25T12:48:34Z

A new survey by Western New England University in Massachusetts reports that Rep. Edward Markey leads Rep. Stephen Lynch in the Democratic primary to fill US Secretary of State, John Kerry's US Senate seat, 44% to 34%. On the GOP side, Gabriel Gomez holds a slim lead over Michael Sullivan, 33% to 27%.

NY Race For Mayor: Quinn Leads, Weiner Second

2013-04-23T13:17:33Z

A new poll by Quinnipiac in New York City reports that Christine Quinn leads the Democratic primary pack at 28%; Anthony Weiner comes in at 15%, Bill de Blasio at 11% and Bill Thompson at 10%. It is clear that Wiener's entry into the race hurts Quinn far more than the other candidates, diminishing her once commanding lead.

A Leader In The LA Mayor's Race

2013-04-22T14:29:59Z

A new poll by USC Price/Los Angeles Times reports that Eric Garcetti now leads by +10% in the Los Angeles mayor's race over rival Wendy Greuel--50% to 40%. According to an analysis of the survey, Greuel's "dogged fight to win the backing of public employee unions appears to be undercutting her on her home turf in the San Fernando Valley... The survey also found no sign of success for Greuel's effort to gain an edge among women by highlighting her potential to make history as the city's first female mayor. Women preferred Garcetti, 50% to 41%."

Gallup: Congressional Approval In A Slump

2013-04-19T13:01:29Z

A survey by Gallup concludes: "As Congress debates legislation on gun control, immigration reform, and the federal budget, it continues to get a vote of no confidence from the American people. Fifteen percent of Americans now approve of the way Congress is handling its job, essentially unchanged from 13% in March and 15% in February. Congress' disapproval rating is 79%." Here is Gallup's chart:

Clear Majority Now Back Gay Marriage

2013-04-18T13:11:59Z

A new poll by the Wall Street Journal/NBC News confirms the rapidly growing trend towards acceptance of same sex marriage. The survey finds support for gay marriage "now stands at 53%, up from 49% last March and 30% in 2004. For the first time . . . the survey found a majority of independent voters saying gays should be allowed to enter into same-sex marriages, with Democrats continuing to support gay marriage in large numbers and Republicans opposing it."