p2p Capital Group

Hulu Growth Will Continue

p2pcapitalgroup — Thu, 04 Jun 2009 02:03:50 +0000

TechCrunch recently reported how Hulu’s growth dropped considerably in April. Despite this, there are a few reasons why I believe growth (in overall streams) will pick back up and potentially accelerate:

1. April is a weak month for TV. May is a larger month due to the number of season finales.

2. ABC / Disney content is being added, but not yet embedded into the site. Users are forced to leave the Hulu site and access shows like Lost via abc.com.

3. Hulu Desktop has been released. The only problem is that comScore will be unable to track viewers usage via desktop applications.

If and when growth does slow, I expect the studios to open episodes up for longer periods. Secondly, better movies will be provided for viewing.

clipped from www.techcrunch.com

The latest comScore data for Hulu, which covers the month of April, reports a much more modest 4.4% growth in overall streams, from 380 million streams in March to around 397 million in April. And its unique visitors actually went down month over month, from around 41.5 million in March to 40.1 million over the same time span.

The Continued Flight to Tax Safety

p2pcapitalgroup — Tue, 02 Jun 2009 16:03:44 +0000

The clip below highlights the continued flight to tax safety for the mobile lifestyles of the upper class. As tax rates continue to rise across the country to balance state budgets, droves of residents are moving to tax friendly states.

Although the number of millionaires will continue to drop due to the recession and loss of home equity, there is no doubt that the migration to tax friendly states will continue.

clipped from online.wsj.com

Maryland couldn’t balance its budget last year, so the state tried to close the shortfall by fleecing the wealthy. Politicians in Annapolis created a millionaire tax bracket, raising the top marginal income-tax rate to 6.25%. And because cities such as Baltimore and Bethesda also impose income taxes, the state-local tax rate can go as high as 9.45%.

One year later, nobody’s grinning. One-third of the millionaires have disappeared from Maryland tax rolls. In 2008 roughly 3,000 million-dollar income tax returns were filed by the end of April. This year there were 2,000, which the state comptroller’s office concedes is a “substantial decline.” On those missing returns, the government collects 6.25% of nothing. Instead of the state coffers gaining the extra $106 million the politicians predicted, millionaires paid $100 million less in taxes than they did last year — even at higher rates.

Twitter Activity

p2pcapitalgroup — Tue, 02 Jun 2009 15:36:46 +0000

Clip below highlights that 10% of the prolific Twitter accounts contribute 90% of tweets. This compares to about 30% of all activity on typical social networks coming from 10% of the top accounts.

This is just another reason as to why I believe Twitter will never be as active and engaging as other social networks. Most users never engage in a conversation with other users and therefore are less likely to return.

clipped from blogs.harvardbusiness.org

Hotel Occupancy & Revenue Statistics

p2pcapitalgroup — Mon, 01 Jun 2009 05:31:09 +0000

Revenue per available room or RevPAR is down year over year. Occupancy rates are down year over year as well.

clipped from www.calculatedriskblog.com

In year-over-year measurements, the industry’s occupancy fell 11.1 percent to end the week at 59.4 percent. Average daily rate dropped 9.3 percent to finish the week at US$98.31. Revenue per available room for the week decreased 19.4 percent to finish at US$58.39.

Restaurant Statistics

p2pcapitalgroup — Mon, 01 Jun 2009 04:41:18 +0000

Optimism is improving, but customer traffic levels are down for the 20th consecutive month albeit dropping at a slower pace.

clipped from www.calculatedriskblog.com

Restaurant operators reported negative customer traffic levels for the 20th consecutive month in April.
…
Along with an improving outlook, restaurant operators are also ramping up plans for capital expenditures in the months ahead. Forty-six percent of restaurant operators plan to make a capital expenditure for equipment, expansion or remodeling in the next six months, up from 44 percent last month and just 37 percent four months ago.

Reed Hastings on the Economics of Streaming Movies

p2pcapitalgroup — Mon, 01 Jun 2009 04:27:07 +0000

Freight Traffic Continues Fall

p2pcapitalgroup — Mon, 01 Jun 2009 02:17:46 +0000

Most recent data from March is showing that Freight activities are now only slightly above those seen in 2000.

clipped from www.bts.gov

Fall of the Mall

p2pcapitalgroup — Mon, 01 Jun 2009 02:15:22 +0000

Fantastic graphic in the NYT highlighting the difference in sales from q1 2009 to the previous year’s quarter. Major positives were for discretionary item stores such as CVS, Family Dollar. Cinemark also benefits due to the average consumer “trading down” by going to the movies.

clipped from www.nytimes.com

McKinsey: Oil Rebound in 2010 or 2013

p2pcapitalgroup — Mon, 01 Jun 2009 01:58:33 +0000

Graphic below showing oil prices rebounding in 2010 with a moderate downturn or as late as 2013 for a severe downturn.

clipped from paul.kedrosky.com

Volatility Index (VIX) Drops

p2pcapitalgroup — Tue, 19 May 2009 22:19:55 +0000

Volatility Index has now dropped below 30 for the 1st time since September.

clipped from finance.yahoo.com