Oakshire Financial

REK, SBM, YXI: New Inverse ProShares

Guest Contributor — Fri, 19 Mar 2010 20:37:17 +0000

Today ProShares brought out three new inverse ETFs focused on the domestic Real Estate and Basic Materials sectors as well as one tracking large-cap China stocks. All these funds have a daily performance target of -100% of their respective indexes. ProShares remains the only provider of inverse equity and fixed income ETFs with less than 2x daily leverage.

For a long time, ETF sponsors tended to roll out new funds either one at a time or as groups with some sort of connection to each other. Lately we are seeing more of these polyglot launches and filings. This is probably a sign that the industry is maturing; the obvious menu items having been covered (several times in some case), sponsors are now going back to fill in the gaps. That’s what the smart ones are doing, at least. Others insist on cloning ETFs that already exist.

The new ProShares ETFs are:

ProShares Short Real Estate (REK) (summary)
ProShares Short Basic Materials (SBM) (summary)
ProShares Short FTSE/Xinhua China (YXI) (summary)

All three have expense ratios of 0.95% and are mainly populated by large, liquid names in the respective categories. As such, and because they come from ProShares instead of some unknown start-up, we suspect REK, SBM and YXI will attract enough assets to be viable. They should stay off the ETF Deathwatch list, at least.

Potential investors should be aware that the lack of leverage does not mean an inverse ETF is exempt from tracking error. The daily reset to -100% still results in distortions, and they become more significant with longer time periods. This can work for you or against you, of course. But it is a good bet that if one of the benchmarks goes down, say, -25% over several months, the corresponding inverse ETF will not go up exactly +25%. In theory the inverse ETF could even go down, depending on the path taken by the index and the length of time involved. These funds are still best used as trading vehicles, not long-term investments.

Ron Rowland
Invest with an Edge

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EURUSD Suffers As Greek Concerns Trigger Risk Liquidation

Daily Forex Snapshots — Fri, 19 Mar 2010 17:01:53 +0000

G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD
	JPY	-0.34
	EUR	-0.84
	CHF	-0.87
	GBP	-1.62

• German PPI (Feb) missed forecasts at 0.0% m/m, -2.9% y/y (0.1%/-2.8% expected, unch m/m, 0.8%/-3.4% prior)
• ECB President Trichet said there is a need to strengthen longer term confidence, and that requires policy frameworks
• EU’s Rehn was on the wires to say Greek problems are primarily the Eurozone’s responsibility, not IMF.
• EU’s Barroso stated EU member states (including Germany), have…

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PLTM and CU: New First Trust ETFs Not Physically Backed

Guest Contributor — Fri, 19 Mar 2010 15:46:57 +0000

First Trust launched two new ETFs on March 12: First Trust ISE Global Platinum Index Fund (PLTM) and First Trust ISE Global Copper Index Fund (CU). Their names sound like they are commodity ETFs, and perhaps even physically-backed commodity ETFs. However, they are equity funds that invest in stocks. First Trust probably should have added “producers,” “miners,” or “equity” to the names to avoid confusion.

First Trust ISE Global Platinum Index Fund (PLTM) is based on an equity index called the ISE Global Platinum Index, which is designed to track public companies active in platinum-group metals mining based on revenue analysis. Platinum group metals include platinum, palladium, osmium, iridium, ruthenium, and rhodium.

PLTM holds 25 stocks. The largest are MMC Norilsk Nickel JSC ADR 7.9%, Johnson Matthey Plc 6.9%, Eastern Platinum Ltd. 6.8%, Aquarius Platinum Ltd. 6.8%, Lonmin Plc 6.6%, Impala Platinum Holdings Limited 6.5%, Anglo Platinum Limited 6.1%, and Stillwater Mining Company 6.0%.

Top country exposure includes Canada 24.4%, South Africa 22.2%, United Kingdom 17.2%, Australia 15.6%, Russia 7.8%, and United States 6.1%. The fund has an expense ratio of 0.70%. Additional information can be found in the PLTM summary and other resources in the PLTM documentation list.

First Trust ISE Global Copper Index Fund (CU) is based on an equity index called the ISE Global Copper Index, which is designed to track public companies active in the copper mining industry based on revenue derived from the sale of copper. CU holds 27 stocks, the largest being BHP Billiton Ltd 6.8%, Xstrata Plc 6.8%, Antofagasta Plc 6.7%, Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold, Inc. (Class B) 6.5%, Southern Copper Corporation 6.2%, and MMC Norilsk Nickel JSC ADR 5.0%.

Top country exposure includes Canada 42.3%, United Kingdom 27.1%, United States 13.0%, Australia 6.8%, Russia 5.0%, and Peru 3.0%. Although Chile produces about a third of the world’s copper, its major players are not publicly traded. The fund has an expense ratio of 0.70%, and additional information can be found in the CU summary and other resources in the CU documentation list.

With the introduction of PLTM and CU, investors now have the ability to invest in platinum and copper producers in much the way that Market Vectors Gold Miners (GDX) and Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners (GDXJ) provide access to gold producers. Whether or not there is investor demand for indexed products covering non-gold metal-specific mining companies remains to be seen.

Ron Rowland
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Market Update – Boeing (NYSE:BA), Citigroup (NYSE:C), Palm (NASDAQ:PALM), Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC)

Stephen Dietrich — Fri, 19 Mar 2010 14:16:02 +0000

The concerns over the Greece debt situation are having an effect on the Euro’s trading price. The EU’s currency is having its worst week since January of this year. Investors have reacted conservatively after news that the Balkan state seems likely to seek a bailout from either the Eurozone or the International Monetary Fund, or both. The US Dollar is trading higher against the Euro this morning as a result.

Oil prices have fallen below $82 a barrel, based partially on US Dollar’s strong gains. Oil prices are still up over last month, where they ended at $69 a barrel. Trading has been pushed by news that OPEC is keeping production steady and speculation that US demand will increase soon based on a recovering economy. Stocks have started trading down overall for the day, as a “barren economic calendar [is] providing few catalysts”, according to Yahoo. Investors are hopeful that things can turn around and the market can make the end of the week a ninth consecutive positive day for the Dow.

One of the positive catalysts driving up the market is news that Boeing (NYSE:BA) is planning to increase production of their popular 747 and highly-profitable 777 series airplanes. The military and airplane producing company had previously planned to increase production, but is moving up its timeline due to increased demand. European based competitor Airbus is also increasing production, specifically of their A230 aircraft.

Unfortunately, Citigroup (NYSE:C) stock has not been a catalyst as expected. The banking institution recently received a ‘buy’ recommendation from popular financial television host Jim Cramer. According to Cramer, the mega-bank is undervalued because hedge and mutual fund managers are shying away from it, due in part to its stigma as a bailout recipient.

Shares of Palm (NASDAQ:PALM) have reached a 52-week low today. The company, which was made extremely popular by their “Pilot” cell phone, announced earlier in the month that projected revenue from their lines “Pre” and “Pixi” would be down for the quarter. Experts are predicting the company will lose money in 2010, and may be bought out.

To end the update on a positive note, Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC) stock prices are up today. The corporations Wachovia bank made news yesterday after making a reported $160 million payment towards a fine to the US government to resolve an investigation on Mexican drug cartels using the investment bank to launder money. Wachovia agreed to admit it failed to properly monitor $420 billion in transactions between 2003-2008, allowing the cartels to launder an estimated $110 million through the American-based bank. This news hasn’t seemed to shake investors, and shares of the corporation have move briskly this morning.

P.S. – Interested in reading about Stanley Barnes’ recent special report, “China’s Secret ‘Blue Gold’ Addiction”? Click here to investigate Oakshire’s latest promotional offering, which could offer yields of up to 843%!

Daily Futures Commentary March 19, 2010

Brewer Futures Group — Fri, 19 Mar 2010 12:42:00 +0000

Friday, March 19, 2010

Once again risk aversion is taking center stage as traders are buying the Dollar and shedding higher risk currencies. The main concern driving the Dollar higher overnight is Greece’s
ability to obtain financial aid. Traders are pricing in the strong possibility that Greece will not receive aid from the European Union and be forced to turn to the International Monetary Fund for
help.

Although Greece agreed to austere budget cuts to pacify the EU, it seems that despite these moves members still are against providing aid to the ailing Greek economy. Greece needs the
funding to get through this difficult transition period but cannot afford to go to the open market to borrow money because of the high interest rate it would have to pay. The cost to borrow would be
prohibitive and the amount of money required to service the debt would cripple the economy.

Volatility is high because of the persistent rumors that keep circulating regarding the Euro. New reports overnight suggest that German officials have indicated support for a joint
bailout of Greece …

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No SNB In Sight

Daily Forex Snapshots — Fri, 19 Mar 2010 08:46:17 +0000

G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD
	EUR	-0.13
	CHF	-0.27
	GBP	-0.34
	JPY	-0.35

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Dollar Wins Amid Greek Debt Concerns

ForexYard — Fri, 19 Mar 2010 06:16:14 +0000

Dollar Wins Amid Greek Debt Concerns

The U.S dollar rose on Thursday amid signs of increasing tensions within Europe over an aid plan for the debt-strapped Greek government. The Dollar also received support from some discussion in the market about the possibility that the Federal Reserve will raise the discount rate sooner than previously slated.

Economic News

USD – Dollar Rises to a 1 Week High vs. the EUR

The U.S currency was near a one-week high against the EUR as a report showed that manufacturing in the Philadelphia region expanded in March at the fastest pace this year. The improved U.S. economic outlook and very modest policy tightening outlook continue to highlight the U.S.'s relative economic growth, providing support for the U.S currency.

The currency was also bolstered as economists said the Federal Reserve may raise the discount rate, charged on direct loans to banks, before the start of the next two-day meeting on April 27.

The greenback also got a boost versus the EUR Thursday after a spokeswoman for the International Monetary Fund said Greece hadn't approached the IMF for financing, prompting some USD buying.

EUR – EUR Down to 17-mth low vs. Swiss franc on SNB comments

The EUR stabilized but remained under pressure on Friday on renewed concern about Greece after Athens said it may not be able to achieve its promised deficit cuts if its borrowing costs remain so high. The European currency was set for its biggest weekly loss since the start of February on concern Greece will fail to secure financial assistance from the European Union. The EUR declined to $1.3620 from $1.3735 and slipped 0.9% versus the Japanese currency to 122.95 yen.

The European single currency also hovered around a 17-month low against the Swiss franc after Swiss National Bank officials said on Thursday that Swiss firms and consumers should prepare for rising borrowing costs as interest rates cannot stay low forever. The EUR edged down 0.1% against the Swiss franc to 1.4390 after falling as far as 1.4355 francs Thursday,, its weakest level since October 2008.

The EUR remains on a downward trend as the market has been redirected to worries over Greece. Uncertainties over the prospects for a Greek debt bailout have not been wiped away, analysts said. As for today, without major economic events the market will likely be driven mostly by supply and demand. Near term support for the EUR is seen around $1.3500 as the currency stayed above that level last week.

JPY – Yen Gains as Uncertainty over Greece Persists

The Japanese yen gained broadly after investors found no new reason to sell the currency further after a flurry of media reports that the Bank of Japan is leaning towards monetary policy easing this week, prompting traders to trim short yen positions. The Yen inched up as investors locked in profits against the EUR due to a lack of progress on a financial aid package for debt-laden Greece. The currency rose to 123.80 per euro from 124.06 yesterday and 0.3% against the USD.

The JPY may fall to as low as 100 per U.S. dollar as the Federal Reserve raises interest rates faster than the Bank of Japan, according to analysts. The Fed may increase its benchmark as early as the fourth quarter while higher rates in Japan are still some time away, they said. The BOJ will not begin to increase rates until the latter half of the fiscal year, thus weakening the Yen as higher yields in the U.S. lure away investors.

OIL – Crude Declines on Firmer Dollar

Crude oil traded lower on Thursday, down 73 cents, or 0.9% as hesitations over European plans to help Greece pressured the EUR, lifted the U.S dollar and weighed on commodities.

Crude oil dropped for a 2nd day amid low fuel demand in the U.S., the world's biggest energy consumer. The commodity's price was slipping and as a firmer dollar damped the investment appeal of commodities. Oil traded around $82 a barrel after the dollar gained against the euro on speculation Greece may fail to secure financial assistance from the European Union. Adding pressure to Crude was a report showing seaborne oil exports by OPEC, excluding Angola and Ecuador, will rise by 70,000 barrels per day in the four weeks to April 3.

Technical News

EUR/USD

The daily chart shows the price has made a significant downward move back inline with its long term downward trend. The breakout that began at the upper border of the Bollinger Band has crossed below the 20-day moving average line, indicating a price move to the lower Bollinger Band is possible. The MACD histogram is also sloping downwards, indicating strong momentum for the pair. Traders may want to go short with a price target of the lower Bollinger Band.

GBP/USD

The pair has made a move lower as the daily chart's upward sloping trend line on the 7-day Relative Strength Indicator has been broken. However, the pair has stalled repeatedly at the support level of 1.5010. Traders should watch for a break below this support line and enter short with a price target of 1.4850.

USD/JPY

Traders can see from the daily chart's Bollinger Bands that the pair has been consistently trading above the 20-day moving average for the past 2 weeks. This indicates a strong up trend. But the pair faces a staunch resistance line at the price of 90.80. Traders may want to wait for the price to rise to this resistance level and go short with a take profit level at the 20-day moving average line of the Bollinger Bands.

USD/CHF

While the pair is currently range trading between 1.0560 and 1.0590 and with most indicators floating in neutral territory, an upward correction may take place later today as the RSI on the daily chart is floating near the oversold territory, indicating an imminent upward movement. Going long for today may be advised.

The Wild Card

NZD/JPY

The pair may experience some downward correction today as the 8 hour and daily chart's RSI is floating in the overbought territory, signaling an imminent downward movement. Forex traders may be advised to go short on the pair.

Article Source: Dollar Wins Amid Greek Debt Concerns

Source: ForexYard

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Daily Forex Commentary March 18, 2010

Brewer Futures Group — Thu, 18 Mar 2010 21:25:00 +0000

March 18, 2010

Greece Bailout Worries Fuel Euro Sell-Off

The U.S. Dollar finished higher versus most major currencies with the exception of the New Zealand Dollar. Fear that Greek fiscal problems may flare up once again sent investors
scurrying out of the Euro and into relatively safer currencies. Nervous investors removed risk from the equation overnight and continued this trend throughout the day. Worries that Greece would not
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Bank on Texas with Texas Capital Bancshares (NASDAQ:TCBI)

Guest Contributor — Thu, 18 Mar 2010 17:38:05 +0000

The black cloud hanging over the financial services sector for much of the past two years is beginning to evaporate. Financial stocks rallied recently, and wise investors are giving the sector a fresh look. We’ve discussed the financial sector at length, noting that successful stock-picking in this sector needs to be selective.

It pays to look beyond the usual suspects in the financial services group. The media gives disproportionate coverage to Bank of America (NYSE:BAC), JP Morgan Chase (NYSE:JPM) and other mega banks. That doesn’t mean these are the best banking stocks. In fact, some smaller regional players offer investors plenty of profit potential.

One of those names is Texas Capital Bancshares (NASDAQ:TCBI). The Treasury Department recently sold $6.56 million in Texas Capital warrants, freeing the company from a big outside constraint. That’s a positive catalyst in its own right, but there are other reasons to give this stock a look. Dallas-based Texas Capital is a conservative bank that does the bulk of its business in its home state.

The Texas economy, second-largest in the U.S., has avoided the pain suffered by many other states during the recession. Texas remains vibrant in part thanks to strong energy prices. More important, though, the Texas real estate market did not overheat like Arizona, California, Florida and Nevada. That means Texas Capital’s balance sheet is not cluttered with risky loans that are susceptible to default.

Another Texas dynamic to consider: There is no bank that would qualify as “major” based in Texas. And yet, Texas is the second-largest state by population and a pivotal market for Bank of America and Wells Fargo (WFC). Despite the fact that the big boys operate in Texas, many Texans prefer to do business with Texas-based banks, a market dynamic that favors the likes of Texas Capital. Many business owners in Texas look to the favorable rates and favorable good-ole-boy system that regional banks offer.

Shares of Texas Capital are up about 30% in the last three months, nearly twice the performance of Bank of America and Wells Fargo. Traditionally one of the biggest reasons to own bank stocks was for their dividends, but many banks have now slashed their payouts to rock-bottom levels. Federal regulators are forbidding dividend increases until the economy improves. That means capital appreciation is what you need in the banking sector. Texas Capital has proven itself to be a winner on that front. The stock has already broken out, indicating more gains may be right around the corner. To play the regional banks in the second-largest economy in the United States, go with Texas Capital Bancshares.

Brandon Clay
Invest With An Edge

Market Updates – Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT), Citigroup (NYSE:C), General Electric (NYSE:GE), Goldman Sachs Group (NYSE:GS)

Stephen Dietrich — Thu, 18 Mar 2010 17:30:39 +0000

The Labor Department announced that consumer prices have remained unchanged through February, indicating that consumers aren’t anticipating inflation despite the zero interest rate that has been set by the Fed and the expanding economy. With the Fed’s most recent announcement that interest rates will continue at zero, this is good news for investors.

Some more good news is that initial jobless claims have declined to a seasonally adjusted 457,000 this week, according to the Labor Department. The four-week average for initial claims has also declined, to a seasonally adjusted 471,250. In global news, Greece appears to be preparing to ask the International Monetary Fund and the Eurozone for a monetary bailout. The European nations debt ratio has gotten out of control recently, and riots have been the result of their efforts to reduce government programs.

Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) has had a good week, and has seen it’s shares get a nice price bump from positive news reports on its anticipated Windows Phone 7 Series line of cell-phones. According to American Banking News, Citigroup (NYSE:C) has maintained it’s ‘buy’ rating for Microsoft Corporation and raised the company’s price target up a dollar, to $32.00. The American bank also anticipates Microsoft to report earnings per share of $2.05, four cents above the consensus approximation of $2.01, for this year and $2.26, four cents above the consensus estimate for 2011.

General Electric (NYSE:GE) is apparently betting on solar technologies for the future. According to reports, G.E. is focusing a large amount of its research and development from four of its largest separate research branches on thin solar panels called “photovoltaic” (PV) technologies. Danielle Merfeld, G.E’s lead solar R&D leader, is quoted as saying “After having completed an exhaustive survey of the PV landscape, we determined that thin films were the optimum path for GE… GE researchers are innovating across our four global research centers—literally around the clock—to deliver a breakthrough product to market.”

The world’s most profitable securities firm, Goldman Sachs Group (NYSE:GS), has appointed a head to its Chinese equity markets branch. Thomas Deng has been picked by GS to arrange more equity fundraising by Chinese companies. Deng has been GS’ chief China strategist and a managing director of their Hong Kong branch since 2007. Chinese companies raised approximately 13% of global share sales underwritten by banks in 2009, and their percentage is continuing to grow.

USD Surges On Rumours Of Discount Rate Hike

Daily Forex Snapshots — Thu, 18 Mar 2010 17:16:10 +0000

G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD
	JPY	-0.33
	GBP	-0.76
	CHF	-1.15
	EUR	-1.29

• Rumours of another hike to the US discount rate to be announced at 12:30 EST sent the USD surging; DXY up nearly 1% on day.
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Daily Futures Commentary March 18, 2010

Brewer Futures Group — Thu, 18 Mar 2010 12:37:00 +0000

Thursday, March 18, 2010

U.S. stock indices are trading flat overnight. Traders have largely ignored the weakness in the Euro over Greece concerns. This may mean that today’s menu of U.S. economic reports
will have a bigger influence on stock prices.

The first report is Weekly Initial Claims. Traders will want to see improvements in the U.S. job situation in order to get a gauge of the developing U.S. recovery. The Consumer Price
Index, due out at 7:30 am CT, will give traders a clue about U.S. inflation. Leading Indicators and Philadelphia Fed will give traders information about the robustness of the recovery.

With cheap money expected to be around for an extended period of time, continue to look for the stock market to rise. A strong rally in the Dollar however, is likely to put pressure
on equity prices due to profit-taking.

June Treasury Bonds have finally broken out above the recent double-tops at 118’02. The charts indicate the next upside target is 118’17. Traders are reacting to the recent FOMC
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Greece Says it Might Have to Go to the IMF

Daily Forex Snapshots — Thu, 18 Mar 2010 09:01:17 +0000

G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD
	JPY	-0.05
	GBP	-0.43
	CHF	-0.54
	EUR	-0.79

• According to media reports a Greek officals stated that Greece might seek IMF aid over Easter since they are not hopeful of aid at March 25 EU Summit.
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Unemployment Claims in Focus Today

ForexYard — Thu, 18 Mar 2010 07:15:54 +0000

Unemployment Claims in Focus Today

The U.S. Unemployment Claims is the primary publication today that is set to determine the level of the USD when it is released at 12:30 GMT. The other main releases that will dominate forex trading, especially for currencies such as the Dollar, EUR and GBP is the publication of Europe's Current Account Balance and British Public Sector Net Borrowing at 9:00 GMT and 9:30 GMT respectively. Traders may find good opportunities to enter the market following these vital announcements.

Economic News

USD – USD Drops on Renewed Risk Appetite

The dollar declined against higher-yielding currencies Wednesday afternoon, after data showed producer prices in February posted their biggest fall in seven months, raising doubts about the U.S. economy and causing investors to reduce exposure to risk. As a result, the Australian dollar hit a nearly two-month high against the greenback, while the Canadian currency moved closer to parity against the dollar, which dipped as low as C$1.0070, a 20-month low. The New Zealand dollar jumped as much as 1%, before relinquishing some of the gains.

The greenback also remained under selling pressure on Wednesday after the U.S. Federal Reserve held its pledge to keep interest rates low for an extended period, prompting investors to snap up growth-sensitive assets. Low interest rates make the dollar less attractive to investors than higher-yielding currencies, stocks and commodities. In addition, the economic recovery does not appear to be improving at the speed many investors were hoping for, and currencies appear to be tracing the movement of stocks as a result.

Looking ahead to today, there are several news releases coming out of the U.S. These include the Core CPI, Unemployment Claims and Philly Fed Manufacturing Index. Better-than-expected results may help the Dollar recover some of yesterday's losses against some of its crosses such as the AUD and CAD. On the other hand, if the results turn out to be lower than forecast, then the Dollar may record a fairly bearish session in today's trading. Traders should pay close attention to the market as there is an opportunity for traders to capitalize on the fluctuations which are likely to follow these releases.

EUR – Pound Gains on Unemployment Data

The EUR saw a bearish trading session on Wednesday, losing ground against most the major currencies. The EUR fell sharply against the CHF, pushing the oft-traded currency pair to 1.4475. The 16 nation currency experienced similar behavior against the AUD and closed at 1.4875.

However, the Pound was the best performer during Wednesday's European session, soaring across the board and reaching the highest levels of the last two weeks against its main rivals after UK unemployment data beat expectations, with its largest decline in the last 12 years. As a result, the GBP/USD rally from 1.4975 low on Tuesday has extended around 345 pips higher after the release of unemployment data, and the pair hit a fresh 2-weeks high at 1.5320.

Looking ahead today, the news event that may have a very large impact on the EUR and its main currency pairs in today's trading is the Current Account Balance around 9:00 GMT. This report is very important and is likely to impact the EUR's volatility. Traders will be paying close attention to today's announcement as a stronger than expected result may boost the EUR in the short-term.

JPY – Yen Experiences Mixed Result against Major Currencies

The Japanese Yen completed yesterday's trading session with mixed results versus the major currencies after the bank of Japan eased its monetary policy. The JPY fell against the GBP yesterday, pushing the oft-traded currency pair to 138.05. The JPY did see some bullishness as well as it gained 50 pips against the EUR and closed at 1.2380.

BOJ Governor Masaaki Shirakawa told a news conference the move to double its fund supply operation was not aimed at influencing currency rates. The BOJ's move was widely flagged, although it left the duration of fixed-rate loans to banks unchanged at three months and two of its seven board member dissented.

The JPY's trends will be affected by the rallies of its primary currency pairs today. It seems that the USD, EUR and GBP are expected to continue a volatile trading session today, especially against the Japanese currency. Traders should keep a close look on the news coming from the U.S. and Europe as these economies will be the deciding factors in the JPY's movement today, especially the U.S Unemployment Claims at 13:30. It is also advisable for traders to follow any unexpected comments coming from key Japanese governmental figures, as this is also likely to lead to further JPY volatility.

OIL – Oil Prices Rise Based on Increased Demands

Oil rose more than 1% to trade near $83 a barrel on Wednesday after a U.S. government report showed increased oil product demand and as OPEC decided to leave output targets unchanged. Data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday showed oil product demand in the world's largest energy consumer was up 3.5% last week from a year ago.

A weaker U.S. dollar against a basket of currencies also provided support, following Tuesday's U.S. Federal Reserve decision to keep low interest rates steady. Crude oil prices, which are denominated in U.S. dollars, tend to rise when the dollar weakens.

Technical News

EUR/USD

The currency has reversed course the past two trading days after consolidating all the way to the price level of 1.3817. This mark is just above the 50% retracement level from the pair's peak price on the daily chart in December. Since then the pair has fallen sharply and now sits near the support level of 1.3680. Traders should also note the 4-hour chart upward sloping trend line that began on March 2nd. The pair has yet to break this short term trend. A breach of this trend line could send the pair lower to its 1.3625 support.

GBP/USD

The Cable has climbed to a recent high of 1.5380 and has begun to fall. The 4-hour chart shows the 7-day RSI indicator has breached below the 70 level, triggering a sell signal, indicating the price may head lower today. The MACD histogram is also downward sloping, providing further support for a bearish price move. Traders may want to go short and target the 1.5210 support level.

USD/JPY

The 4-hour chart shows the pair has been consolidating for the past 4 days, trading in a range with support and resistance levels of 90.00 and 90.75. Identifying a price channel with consistent price moves can be advantageous and should be taken advantage of by going long at the support and selling at the resistance.

USD/CHF

The daily chart displays a bullish cross formed yesterday, indicating the potential for an upward price movement while correcting the downward sloping trend of the past 2 weeks. Traders may want further technical verification of a price reversal. Traders can look to the 7-day RSI by drawing a trend line from the high point down to the current price level. A break of this trend line and a breach of the 30 level should be a signal to buy.

The Wild Card

Oil

The price of spot crude oil continues to push towards its yearly high of $83.90. and yesterday the price climbed as high as 83.31. However, the price of the commodity may be overextended. The price is falling as the 4-hour chart shows the 7-day Relative Strength Indicator has breached below the 70 line, indicating the potential for a price decline. The MACD histogram is also trending lower, providing further support for a bearish price move. Forex and commodity traders may want to cover any long positions they may have as the price of spot crude oil could fall today.

Article Source: Unemployment Claims in Focus Today

Source: ForexYard

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