SPY Technical Analysis - Click to enlarge

We’ve all seen S&P 500 and the general market sell off in the past since March of 2009.  Each time though, the bulls shrugged it off and came back even stronger.  Time after time, the bears were caught and the bulls prevailed.  By Q4 2009, no longs believed the sell-offs will last.  And they were right.

Almost a year later since the March ’09 low, we’re facing a similar situation: another sell-off.  Many still believe longs are taking a break, and that they are simply waiting for another entry point.  However, people are starting to take more caution this time around for the bullish side.  The sentiments I see aren’t as positive as they were previously.

We saw the market dip below the 50 day moving average in July ’09.  It was a teaser for the shorts.  The market did it again in November ’09.  Another tease.  Now the market is doing it again, with legit force.  Third time’s a charm?

No one knows for sure, but what I am doing is paying close attention to the support lines shown in the chart.  If the third support line is broken, there aren’t many notable supports left for a while.

In my opinion, it’s a very promising site that could add a ton of value to both the consumers and the professionals.  When Yelp first launched in 2004, I knew it had a lot of potential for the consumers and the businesses.  A few years later, I can’t imagine now going to the restaurants without reviewing them on Yelp first.

I see a similar value to be offered by Investimonials.  However, like many review sites, it’s faced with the “chicken-and-egg” challenge.  Without the users adding reviews, the site offers no value.  However, without the site adding value, the users aren’t encouraged to participate.  It’s definitely a daunting challenge for the founders of Investimonials.com.

It’s been a few months since the launch, and I’m looking at its progress.  Unfortunately, the site hasn’t progressed as fast as I had expected.  Most of the product reviews only boast 1-3 reviews, which usually doesn’t help determine the true value very accurately.  However, I do think the site still has a  lot more potential to grow for the following reasons:

1. The founder of Investimonials.com is Timothy Sykes, the penny stocker who manages a successful business leveraging his blog.  He is a businessman, and he knows how to market.  At a minimal, he has a ton of advantage over someone new with minimal experience in the industry.
2. The site offers great ways to encourage user participation.  By adding additional reviews, users can earn IV bucks that can be turned in for real products.  Although many of the physical products are products sold by the founder Tim, some of the membership prizes are attractive.  (see below)  The Kirk Report especially is a very valuable membership in my opinion.
3. The guys at Investimonials added immediate value to the users by listing over 3,000 financial products before the launch.  That’s definitely a lot of work, but this is truly what it takes to make a site like this successful.  To overcome the initial “chicken-and-egg” stage, the site has to have initial value.  The team knows this.
4. Well built platform – I can tell Tim put a good amount of investment into building this site.  This is no pre-bought web template.  Although still pretty basic, the site offers good features that require a reasonable amount of development work.

Bottom line, it’s too early for us to get much value out of the site.  However, I do believe this site has a ton of potential for usability down the road.  Let’s come back in a year and see where it stands.

Using the Labor Department’s local area unemployment statistics, Slate presents the recession as told by unemployment numbers for each county in America. Because the data are not seasonally adjusted for natural employment cycles throughout the year, the numbers you see show the change in the number of people employed compared with the same month in the previous year. Blue dots represent a net increase in jobs, while red dots indicate a decrease. The larger the dot, the greater the number of jobs gained or lost. Click the arrows or calendar at the bottom to see each month of data. Click the green play button to see an animation of the data.

So how is this “recovery” happening again?

January 2007

January 2008

January 2009

January 2009 October

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Multiple Tabs and Moveable Streams

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StockTwits TV

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Web Browser

StockTwits Desktop has a built in web browser, so users can click links and view pages without ever having to leave the application! If you prefer to open the link in your own browser, we’ve provided a button for that, as well. We’ve also provided a button to simplify sharing links.

If you haven’t tried the application, definitely give it try.  They’ve really done a good job asking themselves “what are we missing in our trading lives?” and addressed them beautifully.  Great design, great interface, great features, and above all, great community.  Whether you’re a day trader or a long-term trader, there’s something you can get out of this application.

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http://desktop.stocktwits.com/help

Taken from their recent posts:

Pretty much what I expected to happen today – we are at an inflection point plus it’s the Friday before OPX. So, what’s better for those cattle prod wielding market makers than inflict just a bit more theta burn while we wait for a conclusion of this bear market rally saga?

Tonight I find myself between a rock and a hard place. The wave count right now appars quite clear – we seem to have completed an {a}-{b}-{c} and are now completing Minor C of Intermediate (Y) of Primary {2} – this scenario is marked in orange labels on the chart:

Taken from Evil Speculator

Personally, I myself do not feel confident about any of the bearish scenarios that are floating around out in the EWT blogosphere, but I do recognize the potential that, wave count be damned, we might just suddenly drop tomorrow.

So the man behind Evil Speculator thinks we’re going further up.  Well he also shares a separate scenario indicated in blue that is bearish:

I usually never do this but tonight I decided to also show Steven Hochberg’s counts (he’s the author of the Short Term Update and resident editor at EWI) – his is labeled in blue. Basically Steven prognosticates that we painted a flat after the September 25 low, which completed today and that would mean that we’re now ready to drop into a long third wave. So, his count would be that we are in Minute {ii} of Minor 1 of Intermediate (1) of Primary wave {3}.

I deeply respect Steven and it pains me to say this, but I think his count is a stretch at best. Also, the Dollar’s drop today did not help the bearish cause and I have a hard time believing that this market will turn before the Dollar finds at least a temporary floor – thus far the wave pattern on the ole’ buck looks incomplete and we could easily drop below 75 before we finally push into a meaningful rally.

Here are the good news: In regards to Orange vs. Blue we should know very soon – perhaps even by tomorrow. On the chart above I have pointed out the confirmation lines for each scenario. As you can see the orange doesn’t have that far to go.

Indeed, with the option expiration nearing us, this week should help us understand whether the market will make new highs or start retracing.

Market made quite a comeback this past week, similar to what we saw in early September.  This is why “one distribution week doesn’t make any trend”.  It bounced off nicely from the 50 day MA near the support and is looking to test the previous highs.  Many I follow say this week will tell the tale.  Bulls vs Bears.  Let’s see where the market takes us, because I’m certainly not certain.

Financial Select Sector SPDR  (XLF)

XLF Financial Select Sector SPDR came back strong similar to rest of the market last week, bouncing off near the 50 day MA and the support level.  However, the MACD divergence is still there and I still cannot be bullish on the financials.  Again this week should tell whether this bull rally will continue further or pull back is still in effect.

SPDR S&P 500 (SPY)

Same story here.  Despite the big distribution week the week prior, S&P500 and SPY bounced off from the 50 day MA last week and now testing the previous support.  Deja Vu?  You bet.  We’ve all seen this similar pattern in September, and many predict the same story will be told once again.  This bull trend is strong.

United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG) requested by Linda Li

United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG) has been consolidating for the last three weeks trying to break through the resistance at $12.   This consolidation is lasting for a quite some time, and as I have mentioned before I wouldn’t want to get into natural gas at this point with lots of uncertainty.

United States Oil Fund LP (USO)

United States Oil Fund LP (USO) and oil in general has been getting a lot of attention from the technical side as it broke through the triangle pattern.  What’s interesting is that many were screaming “Short!” when the big sell-off took place and ended up getting shaken out by the big rally that followed shortly thereafter.  It is now facing some resistance again at the 50 day MA, and it has been in the consolidation mode for the past week.  Not too much certainty from the technical stand point.

SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) requested by Dorothy Wilcox

SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) broke through the symmetrical triangle pattern and has rallied since.  However, GLD continued to struggle at the next big resistance of $99 for quite some time.  Then the big week came last week.  GLD broke the resistance with a big bang making an open gap Tuesday.  So now the GLD is looking more likely to push further forward.  However, be very careful of Tuesday’s gap open.  As you may have heard already, gaps tend to be filled in the future days.  Some go as far as saying “gaps always get filled”.  I don’t necessary agree but gaps always concern me.  Bottom line,  buying long here would be hesitant for me given the gap, but the $99 resistance will certainly act as a support should the Gold decide to retreat in the coming weeks.  Good news for longs on GLD.

Research in Motion Limited (RIMM) Requested by Jeff Wold

As mentioned last week that Research in Motion Limited (RIMM) may see a bounce from the support level around $63, RIMM bounced back last week near the support level.  However, I don’t foresee RIMM recovering what it has lost already very quickly, even if it does.  If someone has fundamental reasons to get into RIMM or believe in its business/financial viability, great.  I personally would expect RIMM to trade in a range in the next few weeks.

Diamond Trust, Series 1 (DIA) Requested by Johnny

Diamond Trust, Series 1 (DIA) that tracks the Dow Jones Industrial Average has the same o’ story.  Big distribution, followed by just as big recovery.  Again, September all over again.  DIA also is facing the previous resistance level, so this week should tell whether the market will continue its rally, or if the pull back is still in effect.