The Kansas City Chiefs have ruled over the game with an iron fist in recent years, reaching the last three Big Games and lifting the Lombardi in two of them, but have slipped to 2-3, the worst start to a season in the Patrick Mahomes era. In the AFC North, the division’s two major quarterbacks are on the shelf, with both Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow out of commission, leaving the Ravens and the Bengals shell-shocked and searching for answers. To add further turbulence, the Philadelphia Eagles have suffered back-to-back losses to the Broncos and the lowly Giants, slumping to 4-2 after an unbeaten start, and plunging their Lombardi Trophy defense into trouble.

With freak results dominating the league, punters are desperate for some kind of stability. We think these three teams are the best way to find it.

New England Patriots

The record-champion Patriots headed into the new season with quiet optimism, but their week five shocker against the Bills on the road at Highmark has sent expectations soaring. Buffalo was once considered the dominant force with online betting sites to win the AFC East, but the stunning upset has bookies recalibrating. One can bet on sports at Bovada, and the betting giant has slashed odds on the Pats winning the division down to +350.

Now, we’re not saying that the Foxborough outfit will end the Bills’ stranglehold out East, but they certainly have a favorable schedule in the coming weeks where those looking to bet on sports might be able to cash in. Sophomore quarterback Drake Maye has become the calm at the center of the storm: 1,200+ yards, seven touchdowns, and just two interceptions make his stat line one of the league’s most efficient among young QBs. Running back Rhamondre Stevenson has chipped in with two scores, capitalizing on weak fronts and punishing aggressive linebackers.

How did Maye get this off

pic.twitter.com/yFqoFvIcUg

— Bovada (@BovadaOfficial) October 6, 2025

Circle the upcoming tilt against the Titans (1-4). Tennessee fields a rookie QB in Cam Ward and sits at the bottom of the league in both scoring offense (12.5 PPG) and pass defense, allowing over 300 passing yards per contest. After that, friendly home stands await: the toothless Browns and the erratic Falcons visit Foxborough. Cleveland, battered and turning to Dillon Gabriel, is mired in a historic funk—ten straight games under 20 points. Atlanta is a turnstile of inconsistent play led by Michael Penix Jr.

The clash with an in-form Bucs side led by MVP candidate Baker Mayfield is certainly a tough test, but the NFC heavyweights could be vulnerable to a disciplined Patriots D. Then comes a Bengals squad free-falling without Joe Burrow, as well as divisional matchups against the winless Jets and injury-hampered Giants. All projections indicate a 5-2 run through the heart of fall.

Jacksonville Jaguars

If you’re searching for a model of controlled aggression and composure, look to Jacksonville. Their 31-28 victory over the Chiefs wasn’t just dramatic—it was a coming-out party. Trevor Lawrence has matured from tantalizing talent to tactical assassin, racking up over a thousand yards and six touchdowns. Travis Etienne Jr. perfectly complements him: 443 yards on 5.8 yards per carry and two touchdowns highlight his dynamic style.

The Jaguars thrive against defenses in distress. Next up are the Seahawks and Rams—both 3-2 but trending down. Seattle’s defense is a sieve, ranked dead last in missed tackles (18%) and decimated by injuries. The Rams, despite their offensive punch, surrender chunk plays that Lawrence and Etienne are built to exploit.

That stretch is tailor-made for piling up wins. Las Vegas (1-4) can’t block or keep pace; Houston (2-3) is leaking yardage through an injury-ravaged secondary and ranks low in rushing offense. The Chargers are reeling, the Cardinals are caught in a quarterback carousel, and the Titans plus Jets look more like speed bumps than roadblocks. At least five more victories are well within reach for the surging Jaguars.

Washington Commanders

In a year of razor-thin margins and broken scripts, the Commanders have quietly become one of betting’s safest ports. At 3-2, they leverage both home-field and divisional know-how. Jayden Daniels, bouncing back from injury, orchestrated a memorable road comeback against the Chargers and injected new purpose into the Washington offense. His dual-threat game—664 passing yards, four touchdowns, and 124 rushing yards in just three starts—delivers relentless unpredictability. Jacory Croskey-Merritt grounds the attack with 283 rushing yards at a mighty 6.6 per carry.

Monday Night brings the Bears—a franchise plagued by rookie mistakes, a battered offensive line, and a run D surrendering over six yards per carry. Road trips to the Cowboys (unpredictable but beatable) and the Chiefs (wounded) are tall asks, but Washington’s top-10 interception rate secondary is ready to capitalize.

Home games with the battered Seahawks and surging Lions require Daniels’ mobility, but a closing road fixture at Miami offers a golden chance: Tua Tagovailoa is struggling, and Tyreek Hill is out for the season following his gruesome knee injury. The pathway is clear—Washington is poised for a 4-2 or better run, and can turn underdog lines into outright wins.

The post NFL 2025: Three Teams That Will Provide a Safe Haven Amid Chaos appeared first on Vin & Graeme's Betting Tips.

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Now, onto the tips…

Four bets today.

All MLB tips are based on the starting pitchers listed. Tips should be considered void if any pitching changes are made unless otherwise noted. Occasionally, the “follower” will be listed as we are betting on who will pitch the bulk of the innings.

San Diego Padres at Washington Nationals Betting Tips:

SDP – Dylan Cease
WSN – Mike Soroka

Cease is a good pitcher with terrible results. He has a 6.27 ERA/3.53 FIP on the road this season. Normally, I’d think of that as a blip, but it just keeps happening.

The Nationals hit righties well with a 107 wRC+.

Soroka has a 5.67 ERA/3.82 FIP at home this season. With him, I think he’s closer to that ERA in talent level than his FIP. The bullpen behind him is weak and should help add runs late.

The Padres also have a 107 wRC+ against righties.

Padres/Nationals Over 8 Runs (-125)
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San Francisco Giants at Toronto Blue Jays Betting Tips:

SFG – Justin Verlander
TOR – Chris Bassitt

This is all about the Jays offense. They have a 129 wRC+ at home and a 116 wRC+ over the past month.

Verlander is decent, but he’s been much better at home. He has a 4.99 ERA/4.65 FIP on the road this season.

The Giants were weak heading into the break, with an 87 wRC+ over the past month, and they’ve been worse on the road.

Bassitt’s home numbers are much better with a 2.81 ERA/2.96 FIP. The bullpen behind him has also been dealing.

Jays Moneyline (-145)
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Minnesota Twins at Colorado Rockies Betting Tips:

MIN – Chris Paddack
COL – Kyle Freeland

This is my biggest risk of the day, but it’s Coors Field with good hitting weather.

Paddack has a 6.93 ERA/4.30 FIP over his last five starts, and now he gets to pitch at the best hitting park in baseball. He’s not a big strikeout guy and relies on a lot of contact. This is not the park for that profile.

The Rockies offensive stats aren’t pretty, but they are averaging 4.11 runs per game at home, so this wouldn’t be wildly out of character. Moniak, Hunter, and Freeman are doing a lot right now. The trio all have wRC+ over 150 since June 1st. They should get us there.

Rockies Over 4.5 (-115)
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St. Louis Cardinals at Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Tips:

STL – Andre Pallante
ARI – Brandon Pfaadt

Pfaadt had a rough time earlier this year, but he’s bounced back with a 4.34 ERA/3.25 FIP over his last five starts. He has been much better at home with a 4.27 ERA/2.93 FIP.

The Cardinals offense struggled into the break, and they have been a worse offense on the road.

Pallante has a 3.98 ERA/4.43 FIP on the road this season, and this is a tough match-up.

The Diamondbacks have a 122 wRC+ at home this season and a 123 wRC+ against righties. I think they win the game, but I’m not trusting the bullpen.

Diamondbacks First 5 Innings Moneyline (-125)

The post July 18th, 2025 MLB Betting Tips appeared first on Vin & Graeme's Betting Tips.

Things are heating up at Sharp Baseball with a 12-4 record since Sunday. Today’s post is free to all members, with four bets and three player props. I’ve shared a couple of the bets below, but check out Sharp Baseball for the full post. There is one free post per week, including the daily fantasy report. If you like what you see, please consider subscribing for the daily updates.

All MLB tips are based on the starting pitchers listed. Tips should be considered void if any pitching changes are made unless otherwise noted. Occasionally the “follower” will be listed as we are betting on who will pitch the bulk of the innings.

San Diego Padres at Chicago Cubs Betting Tips:

SDP – Randy Vásquez
CHC – Shota Imanaga

Los Angeles Dodgers at Philadelphia Phillies Betting Tips:

LAD – Yoshinobu Yamamoto
PHI – Jesús Luzardo

The Dodgers can’t lose, and I don’t think Luzardo will be the one to beat them. Last season’s team was the best in the MLB against lefties, and it doesn’t look like this year is likely to be all that different.

Luzardo is projected for high walks and home runs, which played out in his first start against the Nationals. I don’t imagine it gets better against the Dodgers.

Yamamoto is a strikeout machine who doesn’t care who he’s facing. The Phillies offense is a bit more human against righties, despite their numbers thus far. Let’s just say there is a big difference between playing the Dodgers and the Nationals and Rockies.

The Dodgers bullpen has been the best in baseball thus far so I expect them to hold any lead they get early.

Dodgers Moneyline (-125)
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Arizona Diamondbacks at Washington Nationals Betting Tips:

ARI – Brandon Pfaadt
WSN – Jake Irvin

Miami Marlins at Atlanta Braves Betting Tips:

MIA – Max Meyer
ATL – Spencer Schwellenbach

I went back and forth on this one just because of how the Braves have played thus far, but talent should win out in the end. One thing I think people overrate/underrate during good/bad stretches for a team is the quality of the opponent they play. The Braves have had the hardest schedule thus far, and they’ve faced some amazing pitchers as well.

Today, they get the Marlins which project to be one of the three worst teams in the league this season. The Braves, including the start they’ve had, are still projected to win 88 games this season by Fangraphs. There are teams that I will believe a seven-game sample of, but the Braves are not one of them.

Schwellenbach should be great here. He was great in his first start with six shutout innings, and this start is much easier. The Marlins are the second-worst projected offense in the System.

There are reasons to believe that Max Meyer could be a good starter in this league, but we’re still talking about a guy with a projected 4.38 ERA/4.36 FIP that struggled last season. He only made eleven starts last season, including four runs on the road against the Braves. I think that’s the floor today.

Braves -1.5 (-112)

The post April 4th, 2025 MLB Betting Tips appeared first on Vin & Graeme's Betting Tips.

It’s Opening Day so I have coverage of every single game on the Sharp Baseball Patreon. I also posted a DFS Report, a daily dive into what teams and pitchers look good in daily fantasy baseball.

Today is the last day to join Sharp Baseball at the $7/month plan. After today, you will only be able to join at $10/month. There is a 7-day free trial for all new sign-ups so get in now!

Five bets today, two are available below.

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Milwaukee Brewers at New York Yankees Betting Tips:

MIL – Freddy Peralta
NYY – Carlos Rodón

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Boston Red Sox at Texas Rangers Betting Tips:

BOS – Garrett Crochet
TEX – Nathan Eovaldi

Crochet can make me look stupid here, but this looks like a good over because both offenses have the potential to be very good this season.

I have doubts that Crochet will go beyond four innings today. He certainly has the stuff, but I’m not sure he’s stretched out enough, and this offense will make him work.

The Red Sox bullpen needs to prove itself this season. Chapman is the closer, but he’s erratic and getting older. Liam Hendricks’ velocity is down and did not look great in spring. After that, who knows? I will take the Rangers offense against this group as it stands.

Eovaldi’s longest start this spring was four innings. He could go five, but I doubt it. He’s also a guy I have some doubts about this year as he enters his age-35 season. I think he’s more hittable than in the past, and the bullpen behind him was bottom-five in the league last year after also struggling for much of 2023. I don’t trust them and Boston has the guys to take advantage.

I like both offenses here. Each has some real length to their lineups which can lead to a lot of runs scored in a hurry.

Red Sox/Rangers Over 7.5 Runs (-116)

New York Mets at Houston Astros Betting Tips:

NYM – Clay Holmes
HOU – Framber Valdez

Cleveland Guardians at Kansas City Royals Betting Tips:

CLE – Tanner Bibee
KCR – Cole Ragans

This game was all over the DFS Report as it is the best hitting spot of the day. Temperatures in the mid-70s with winds blowing out, this is by far the best outdoor weather of the day in baseball. Kaufmann Stadium already plays as a hitter’s park so we should see a boost to the offenses here.

Ragans is a starter that I like quite a bit. He had a 3.14 ERA/2.99 FIP last season, a 3.40 ERA/2.86 FIP at home, and a huge 10.77 K/9 rate. Ragans is a K machine, but walks are also an issue. Cleveland is above-average in walks, and average to below-average in everything else, so they might be able to cause an early exit here.

Bibee is a very good pitcher, just not elite at any skill. On a day like today, I think his high flyball rate could be an issue. The Royals offense is also roughly average to below-average, but they have Bobby Witt Jr. who fixes a lot of problems. I should also note that KC was much better at home last season with a .320 wOBA compared to a .295 on the road.

Guardians/Royals Over 7.5 (-110)

Athletics at Seattle Mariners Betting Tips:

ATH – Luis Severino
SEA – Logan Gilbert

The post MLB Opening Day Bets appeared first on Vin & Graeme's Betting Tips.

Last season was very successful with a 305-223 record, which was good for +24.41 betting units. I’m once again using the System that I’ve been building for the past few seasons with some minor upgrades. This season should be another great one and I’m ready to post almost every day.

The Sharp Baseball Patreon will be $10 per month, or $7 if you sign up prior to Opening Day. There is also a free tier available which will get you access to one post per week. The Patreon will only be for the baseball season so I’ll be pressing pause on charges once the World Series ends.

Right now I’m in the middle of my MLB betting season preview series. I started off with Win Totals, which you can find below. I’ve also posted AL MVP, NL MVP, and AL Cy Young betting odds and analysis, all of which you can view on the free tier. There are more futures previews to come and then we have MLB games right around the corner, starting with the Tokyo Series next week and then Opening Day on March 27th.

After that, it’s off to the races with posts almost every day until the end of October.

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My process for these is pretty simple. I take a look at my three favorite projection systems and compare them to the posted win totals and go from there.

Fangraphs (based on ZiPS) is my favorite of the three projection systems I am using here so I weight that a little bit higher than the other two. I like it best because it is a little more reserved than the others. The main example for this would be the Dodgers who PECTOTA and Clay Davenport have them at 103 wins. As great as they are, that is a lot of wins to project based on the parity of the league right now. Fangraphs’ 96 wins is a great number and far better than everyone else, but it’s also in line with where I think the league is at this point.

Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA standings are the other main projection system out there. These projections are a bit more aggressive in my estimation with the Rockies being a great example of that. I’m not a fan of their roster, but a projection of 107 losses is far more agressive than I would normally be about even the worst of teams.

Clay Davenport’s Projections are the third leg of this. These are based on a combination of computerized projections for performance rates and his estimates of playing time. I find whenever he disagrees with the other two (Mariners, Guardians) that it matches my thoughts.

Let’s dig into it.

Los Angeles Dodgers Under 104.5 (-110)

Let’s start it off with one that makes me feel absolutely crazy.

I hinted at this above, but there is just so much parity in the league right now that I have a hard time seeing any team winning more than 100 games. Last season, the Dodgers won 98 games and had the best record in the league. In 2023, the best team in the league finished right at 104. That feels like the max and I think the less dominating teams will become the norm.

That’s not to say the Dodgers aren’t that much better than everyone else, they are, but there are plenty of red flags here. There is big talent in the rotation and that talent pretty much all his injury red flags. Ohtani will return to pitching this season which ups his injury risk on both sides of the plate.

There are also a lot of great hitters on this team who are getting older. Freddie Freeman is 35, Max Muncy is 34, and Michael Conforto, Teoscar Hernandez, and Mookie Betts are all 32. Older means more injuries, older means slowed bat speed.

Will Smith has been dealing with an ankle issue since last June. He doesn’t think it affects his swing, but then you see his 78 wRC+ in the second half of last season and you question his thinking.

I think the Dodgers are great and 100% deserve to be the World Series favorite and have the highest win total, but there are red flags here and I just don’t see them blowing this total out of the water.
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New York Yankees Under 92.5 Wins (-115)

The Yankees made it to the World Series last year because of Juan Soto and Aaron Judge, and Juan Soto doesn’t play here anymore. Judge is great and I would not be surprised to see him be great again, but it would be very hard to repeat what did last year.

The rest of the offense is a big question mark to me. Paul Goldschmidt is coming off his worst season of the career when he was barely an average first basemen. The projection on him sees a bit of a bounceback, but I am not buying it out of a 37-year-old.

Cody Bellinger is the other big acquisition and I have serious doubts there. He had a dropoff of .052 in isolated slugging and .130 in OPS from 2023 to 2024. The projections split the difference between those numbers, but I have my doubts.

The projections are high on Jasson Dominguez, but that’s a case where I need to see it to believe it. He’s only 22 and a 20+ home run season feels like a lot to ask in my opinion.

Ultimately, this is a pick against the American League East and American League as a whole. It’s going to be another bloodbath and I just don’t see a team breaking from the pack to this level.

Toronto Blue Jays Over 78.5 Wins (-140)

The 2024 Jays were an everything that can go wrong will go wrong kind of team. They had the worst bullpen in the league and that is something that you just can’t bet on to repeat. Bichette had the worst season imaginable, something I can’t imagine repeating. They were also 7-17 in September, a sign of a team that was out of it and just tried some stuff down the stretch.

Talent-wise, this time is absolutely an 80+ win team. Vlad Guerrero Jr. is one of the best hitters in the league and he’s playing for a free agent contract. I’m expecing big things this season. Anthony Santander should provide him some much needed protection and Bichette can’t possibly be that bad again. (Right?)

Between Daulton Varsho, Ernie Clement, Alejandro Kirk, and Andres Gimenez, the Jays should have one of the very best defenses in all of baseball. A rising tide lifts all boats, and this defense should help their pitching quite a bit.

The question here is the pitching and pitcher health. Max Scherzer is the big question mark, but if he is close to even his limited self that we saw last season – I think this rotation could be pretty good.

The bullpen added some names, the key one being Jeff Hoffman, and shouldn’t repeat last year. That would be hard to do even if they tried.

St. Louis Cardinals Over 75.5 Wins (-120)

Has a team ever contended against their will? That could be the case with the 2025 Cardinals.

This team tried to trade Arenado all offseason, but couldn’t get it done and now they have what looks to be a pretty good lineup if things break right.

Willson Contreras replacing Goldschmidt at first base is a clear upgrade and I think he’ll put up some great numbers this year. He had a shortened season last year, but posted a 140 wRC+ in 84 games. Ivan Herrara had a great season last year with a 127 wRC+ in 72 games and should be the primary catcher. Losing Goldy should upgrade two positions.

Gorman, Nootbaar, Burleson, and Winn are all solid contributors. Jordan Walker is a question mark, but I like a lot more of this lineup than I don’t.

Last year’s Cardinals won 83 games so the stepback doesn’t make as much sense to me. There were a lot of plate appearances that went to bad players last season and I don’t see that fully repeating here.

The pitching is the question mark, but there is enough mix of veterans and prospects here that I can see them finishing more towards the middle of the league than the botttom. That should be enough.

Barring a fire sale, this team should win 76+ whether they want to or not.

Chicago White Sox Over 54.5 Wins (-115)

We started with a bet that makes me feel insane and now we end with another.

The White Sox were awful last year, but they were also incredibly unlucky. They won only 41 games, but their Pythagorean record says they should have won 48. BaseRuns, another metric that figures out how many runs a team “should have” scored, says they should have won 50.

I think the offense has some potential to be decent, or at least average. Colson Montgomery is a top prospect and should make the team this year. Miguel Vargas will get every chance to hit here. Mike Tauchman, Austin Slater, and Joey Gallo should all help raise the floor and I just don’t see a way this team hits as poorly as it did last year.

Last year’s defense was also the worst and, again, hard to repeat something like that. The players they’ve added have flaws, but they know how a glove works. That’s more than we could say last year.

I am not betting on the White Sox to be good, but I don’t think we’re going to see historic levels of bad again. 55-107 would win this bet.
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The post 2025 MLB Win Total Betting Tips appeared first on Vin & Graeme's Betting Tips.

2-1 last time. 8-5 this season.

W Celtics Over 121.5
W Cavs -7
L Pacers -4.5

I argued between the Pacers and Pacers Over 118 and went with the spread play. The final score was Pelicans 125, Pacers 118. Ouch.

The NBA is loading up the schedule today with all thirty teams in action as they take tomorrow off for the election. I get the idea of it, but I’d much rather have some games tomorrow than all the endless talking that election night brings.

It’s been a solid start to the NBA season on Patreon after an incredible MLB season. I will be covering NBA for the next few months there if you’d like to follow along.

A big slate tonight and nothing tomorrow so let’s go big with five picks.

Milwaukee Bucks at Cleveland Cavaliers Betting Tips:

I was kicking myself on Saturday for not writing tips when I saw these two teams matched up as I would’ve been all over the Cavs for that one.

The Bucks gave their best shot with Giannis and Dame combining for 75 points, but they still couldn’t get it done.

I don’t see that 75-point output repeating here and the Cavs offense should play much better at home than it did in that road match-up. They’ve only played three home games thus far, but they were all wins and the last two saw them score over 120 points.

Milwaukee’s defense has bled three-pointers thus far this season and the Cavs offense has been one of the best at that. I think they fill it up from deep tonight in another win. 118 should be easy to clear when they make 15+ threes.

Cavs Over 117.5 Points

Los Angeles Lakers at Detroit Pistons Betting Tips:

I never know just how good the Lakers are, but they are a team that wins the games they are supposed to win. They dominated the Pistons in three match-ups last season and finished 20-10 against the Eastern Conference. This year’s team is better so I don’t see that changing here.

The Pistons are playing their third game in four nights and the second half of a back-to-back today. Their defense has not been great this season and their offense is probably worse. This will be one of the worst teams in the league before it’s all said and done.

This is probably the easiest match-up the Lakers have had thus far this season and I think they take care of business here. A ten-point win feels doable.

Lakers -7.5

Boston Celtics at Atlanta Hawks Betting Tips:

Atlanta is another three games in four nights team, playing in New Orleans last night, and they are rewarded with a game against the NBA champions. I don’t see that going well for them.

The good news for Atlanta is that Jaylen Brown is out tonight, but does that really matter? This team has shown they have the talent and depth to roll through injuries.

Atlanta’s defense has been one of the worst in the NBA this season with at least 116 points allowed in six out of seven games. None of the offenses they’ve faced has been even close to the talent and efficiency of the Celtics.

Celtics Over 122
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New York Knicks at Houston Rockets Betting Tips:

This game looks like it might be closer to a ’90s Knicks/Rockets game – physical and low-scoring.

These are two of the bottom three teams in PACE and two very good defenses.

Houston especially has played some real slugfests early with five of their six games allowing 110 points or less.

The Knicks defense has been right there with them over their last four games with 110 being the high points allowed total.

This game will be played at a snail’s pace with both teams asserting themselves on defense. 218 feels a bit too high for me.

Knicks/Rockets Under 217.5

Indiana Pacers at Dallas Mavericks Betting Tips:

I was only going to go with four picks tonight, but I couldn’t skip this one.

The Pacers excelled last year thanks to an outstanding offense, but that offense has mostly been missing. They currently have a 117.1 Defensive Rating, which is in the bottom six in the league.

The Mavericks excelled last year with an outstanding defense that carried them to the Finals and that defense has been very much present thus far. Dallas’s offense has been about equal to Indiana’s thus far, but a Defensive Rating of 106.4 puts them in another stratosphere.

An offensive-minded team that isn’t scoring against a defense-first team that is dominating. It feels almost too easy.

Mavericks -5

The post November 4th, 2024 NBA Betting Tips appeared first on Vin & Graeme's Betting Tips.

1-1 last night. 232-164 this season.

W Yankees -0.5 First 5 Innings (-140)
L Cardinals Over 3.5 Runs (-115)

Today is Friday which means today’s Patreon post is completely free. It’s been a profitable week and month thus far so let’s keep that going.

Four bets today and five player props.

All MLB tips are based on the starting pitchers listed. Tips should be considered void if any pitching changes are made unless otherwise noted. Occasionally the “follower” will be listed as we are betting on who will pitch the bulk of the innings.

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Colorado Rockies at New York Yankees Betting Tips:

COL – Kyle Freeland
NYY – Carlos Rodon

Freeland has an 8.23 ERA/5.19 FIP on the road this season. He has a huge home run rate in those starts and now he faces the New York Yankees. I don’t see this going well.

Aaron Judge has a .726 slugging percentage this season. The league average on-base plus slugging percentage is .713. Juan Soto has a 1.037 OPS this season. Sometimes all you need is two.

The Rockies have just a 78 wRC+ on the road this season and a 79 wRC+ against lefties. Rodon has been solid and the Yankees bullpen is good.

Yankees -1.5 (-134)

Chicago Cubs at Miami Marlins Betting Tips:

CHC – Kyle Hendricks
MIA – Max Meyer

Hendricks has a 7.28 ERA/5.97 FIP on the road this season with a 2.13 HR/9 rate.

Miami has been a hot offense since the trade deadline with Jake Burger absolutely going off. This team plays better at home and has been hitting much better over the past month.

Marlins Over 3.5 Runs (-125)

Arizona Diamondbacks at Boston Red Sox Betting Tips:

ARI – Ryne Nelson
BOS – Brayan Bello

These two offenses have been very good to us over the past month and now they face each other. I expect fireworks.

The Diamondbacks have a 145 wRC+ over the past month and a 130 wRC+ over the past two weeks. They hit righties well and they are clicking on all cylinders right now.

Boston has a 113 wRC+ against righties and a 124 wRC+ over the past month.

I don’t know if I would care who is starting today, but both pitchers are closer to average than anything. Plus, the Red Sox bullpen has been a hot mess for a month.

Diamondbacks/Red Sox Over 9.5 Runs (-114)
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Philadelphia Phillies at Kansas City Royals Betting Tips:

PHI – Taijuan Walker
KCR – Michael Wacha

Walker has a 5.63 ERA/5.00 FIP on the road this season with a high BABIP and a low strikeout rate.

The Royals at home have been very good to us this year. They have a 108 wRC+ at home and a 126 wRC+ over the past two weeks.

That almost hides how good they’ve been at home. They are averaging 5.23 runs per game at home this season. A big part of that is Bobby Witt Jr. who has a .404 batting average at home this season.

Royals Over 4.5 Runs (-120)

Player Props:

2-2 last time. 51-42 on total bases props this season.

W Aaron Judge Over 1.5 Total Bases (-104)
L Juan Soto Over 1.5 Total Bases (+104)
L Alex Call Over 1.5 Total Bases (+120)
W Luis Garcia Over 1.5 Total Bases (+110)

The tiniest of profits last night.

Five bets today:

• I am going to try something different today and go with two players at over 2.5 total bases. Judge and Witt Jr. are the top two players of the day and their prices reflect that at 1.5. Two hits with one as an extra-base hit would cash and that’s typically how it goes on their good nights.
• Bobby Miller has really struggled for the Dodgers and Lowe has been the Rays’ best hitter both against righties and over the past month.
• Joey Bart is one of the stories of the season. He was traded by the Giants to the Pirates and was so mad about it that he became a great hitter. He’s hitting over .300 for the past month.
• Finally, what’s one more New York Yankee between friends? If Judge looks good, Soto looks good.

Total Bases and Home Run Props are bet at $5. This prop may be listed as Total Bases (From Hits). These bets are all for Over 1.5 Total Bases (From Hits) unless otherwise noted.

• NYY Aaron Judge Over 2.5 Total Bases (+124)
• KCR Bobby Witt Jr. Over 2.5 Total Bases (+125)
• TBR Brandon Lowe Over 1.5 Total Bases (+114)
• PIT Joey Bart Over 1.5 Total Bases (+127)
• NYY Juan Soto Over 1.5 Total Bases (+125)

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The post August 23rd, 2024 MLB Betting Tips appeared first on Vin & Graeme's Betting Tips.

3-1 last night. 227-160 this season.

W Diamondbacks -0.5 First 5 Innings (-130)
W Red Sox Over 3.5 Runs (-125)
W Padres Over 3.5 Runs (-135)
L Mariners Over 3.5 Runs (-128)

Well, I tried to warn you about the Mariners. I probably should’ve heeded my warning. Still, we’re in the midst of a 13-3 run right now despite that no-good Seattle team. Let’s keep it going.

The team overs have been doing well for us lately so I’m going to hit more of those today.

Four bets today.

All MLB tips are based on the starting pitchers listed. Tips should be considered void if any pitching changes are made unless otherwise noted. Occasionally the “follower” will be listed as we are betting on who will pitch the bulk of the innings.

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Cleveland Guardians at New York Yankees Betting Tips:

CLE – Matthew Boyd
NYY – Luis Gil

Boyd is only making his second start and I think he gets hit today. The ZiPS projection is at 4.45 ERA/3.92 FIP which is slightly below his career 4.92 ERA/4.62 FIP.

The Yankees offense can mash and they have incredible patience at the plate. That has been a struggle of Boyd’s in the past so it could rear its head here. New York has a 118 wRC+ at home and a 119 wRC+ over the past two weeks.

Luis Gil has had a great season, but he’s been especially strong at home with a 2.90 ERA/3.27 FIP. The Guardians have a 93 wRC+ against righties and a 71 wRC+ over the past two weeks.

Yankees First 5 Innings (-140)

Milwaukee Brewers at St. Louis Cardinals Betting Tips:

MIL – Frankie Montas
STL – Erick Fedde

Fedde pitched well enough to get himself off the White Sox, but he’s really slowed down in the later part of the season. Since the start of July, he has a 3.86 ERA/5.17 FIP. His walks are up and strikeouts are down. He’s allowed at least three runs in three of his past four starts.

The Brewers hit righties well and are hot at the plate right now with a 119 wRC+ over the past month.

Brewers Over 3.5 Runs (-125)
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Los Angeles Angels at Kansas City Royals Betting Tips:

LAA – Tyler Anderson
KCR – Cole Ragans

The Royals at home is always a good time and they are hot right now with a 126 wRC+ over the past two weeks.

Tyler Anderson is about an average pitcher with a 3.30 ERA/4.49 FIP on the season. That ERA is starting to creep up to where it should be over the last few starts. He’s allowed three or more runs in six of his last nine starts. Two of those games saw him allow 6+, including his last game, so a blow-up is possible here.

Royals Over 4.5 Runs (-117)
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Boston Red Sox at Houston Astros Betting Tips:

BOS – Nick Pivetta
HOU – Ronel Blanco

Blanco allowed three runs (two earned) in a start against the Red Sox eleven days ago while only lasting four innings and I wouldn’t be surprised to see a repeat here. He has a 2.89 ERA/4.25 FIP this season and this is another player where that ERA is starting to catch up.

The Red Sox offense has been very good to us lately and should continue to be today. They have a 112 wRC+ against righties and a 117 wRC+ on the road.

Red Sox Over 3.5 Runs (-135)

Player Props:

2-2 last time. 44-36 on total bases props this season.

W Tyler Fitzgerald Over 1.5 Total Bases (+120)
W Joc Pederson Over 1.5 Total Bases (+118)
L Corbin Carroll Over 1.5 Total Bases (+110)
L Luke Raley Over 1.5 Total Bases (+137)

An even night but a winning one thanks to the positive odds.

Four bets today:

• I’ve honestly been surprised that Vlad Jr. hasn’t popped up more recently as he’s been on an incredible heater. Over the past month, he has a .406 batting average and an .851 slugging percentage.
• The System liked the Mariners team over again today, but I just couldn’t do it. Still, Cal Raleigh has some great odds and he’s been the Mariners best hitter this season.
• I like the Red Sox offense above, but the Astros are probably winning that game. Yordan Alvarez has a 154 wRC+ against righties this season.
• The Giants are playing the White Sox so you know their hitters are looking good. Fitzgerald has been amazing with a 169 wRC+ against righties this season.

Total Bases and Home Run Props are bet at $5. This prop may be listed as Total Bases (From Hits). These bets are all for Over 1.5 Total Bases (From Hits) unless otherwise noted.

• TOR Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 Total Bases (-112)
• SEA Cal Raleigh Over 1.5 Total Bases (+134)
• HOU Yordan Alvarez Over 1.5 Total Bases (-106)
• SFG Tyler Fitzgerald Over 1.5 Total Bases (+120)

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The post August 20th, 2024 MLB Betting Tips appeared first on Vin & Graeme's Betting Tips.

2-1 last night. 208-147 this season on Patreon.

W Mets Over 5.5 Runs (-125)
W Orioles/Jays Over 9 Runs (-110)
L Mariners -0.5 First 5 Innings (-130)

It’s been a winning week thus far with a 7-3 record. Friday means a fresh set of match-ups and we have some good ones tonight.

Four bets plus player props.

All MLB tips are based on the starting pitchers listed. Tips should be considered void if any pitching changes are made unless otherwise noted. Occasionally the “follower” will be listed as we are betting on who will pitch the bulk of the innings.

Bet Horse Racing - +£21,565.98 profit on £25/pt staking. Click for more details.

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Baltimore Orioles at Tampa Bay Rays Betting Tips:

BAL – Zach Eflin
TBR – Zack Littell

Both starters are decent, but pretty close to average overall. They have ERAs of 4.05 and 4.06 so there is no real clear advantage there, and I don’t expect either to toss a shutout.

The Orioles are one of the best offenses in the game. They have a 117 wRC+ against righties and a 130 wRC+ over the past two weeks.

The Rays, despite all the trades, have hit well over the last two weeks with a 109 wRC+.

Throw in the Orioles recent bullpen struggles and I don’t quite get why this line is set at just 7.5. This is one of those games where I think it will be at least an “average” game of eight runs scored, but I have this closer to nine than eight.

Orioles/Rays Over 7.5 (-124)

Oakland Athletics at Toronto Blue Jays Betting Tips:

OAK – Mitch Spence
TOR – Jose Berrios

Berrios is in shambles right now with a 6.10 ERA/6.18 FIP over his last four starts. He’s allowed at least three runs in eight of his past ten starts. The bullpen behind him is no better with a 5.84 ERA over the past month.

Spence is nothing to get excited about either. He has a 4.79 ERA/5.84 FIP over his last four starts. Spence has allowed at least four runs in his past three road starts.

The Jays are red-hot at the plate right now with a 121 wRC+ over the past two weeks. The Athletics are in a cold stretch right now, but they have a 121 wRC+ over the past month.

Athletics/Jays Over 8.5 Runs (-120)

Houston Astros at Boston Red Sox Betting Tips:

HOU – Ronel Blanco
BOS – Tanner Houck

I’ve been waiting a long time for a Blanco reckoning and I think tonight is the night. Blanco has a 2.98 ERA/4.43 FIP. He’s been very lucky all season with a .197 BABIP with a high left-on-base percentage.

The reason I think tonight is the night is this Red Sox offense. They have a 112 wRC+ against righties and have been absolutely on fire with a 138 wRC+ over the past month and a 150 wRC+ over the last two weeks.

Houck has had some struggles of late, but he’s having a great season overall and I think he’s catching the Astros at the right time. They have a 94 wRC+ over the past two weeks and a 98 wRC+ on the road.

Red Sox Moneyline (-134)

Pittsburgh Pirates at Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Tips:

PIT – Mitch Keller
LAD – Jack Flaherty

The Pirates are finally coming down to earth with four straight losses. They have a fun team with some fun players, but you can’t compete with an offense this bad.

I think that shows up today as they face a good pitcher in Jack Flaherty. He’s having a great season with a 2.80 ERA/3.03 FIP/2.61 xFIP. His strikeouts have been huge and he’s done well to keep his walks and home runs down. Those trends should continue as the Pirates have just an 84 wRC+ against righties.

Keller is a solid pitcher, but his match-up is far more difficult. The Dodgers have a 124 wRC+ against righties and a 120 wRC+ at home.

Dodgers -0.5 First 5 Innings (-133)

Player Props:

I have been posting Total Bases props since the end of last month and have had some success with a 27-23 record. So many recent wins have come via home run games that I am going to sprinkle some of those into my player prop bets as well.

This is a newer system that is still being tweaked so I am keeping the units low.

Total Bases and Home Run Props are bet at $5. This prop may be listed as Total Bases (From Hits).

Five bets today:

• BOS Rafael Devers Over 1.5 Total Bases (-104)

  I’m high on the Red Sox today and Devers stands high above the rest with a 171 wRC+ at home this season.


• MIL Willy Adames Over 1.5 Total Bases (+131)
• MIL Garrett Mitchell Over 1.5 Total Bases (+144)
  
  Adames is the top Brewer of the day because he hits great at home with a 143 wRC+, but I had to throw Mitchell in because of Spiers left/right splits. Lefties have a .832 OPS against him this season. Mitchell is hitting .300 against lefties in 70 at-bats. Spiers didn’t allow a home run in his first seven starts. He’s allowed seven home runs in his last five starts.

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• ATL Marcell Ozuna Home Run (+250)
• ATL Austin Riley Home Run (+300)

  Today is a good day to try some home run props. Tanner Gordon has only made four starts for Colorado, but he’s allowed six home runs in those starts. Five of those homers have come against right-handed hitters. It’s a small sample size, but those stats make Ozuna and Riley the top two players on the board in the best-hitting park ever made.

The post August 9th, 2024 MLB Betting Tips appeared first on Vin & Graeme's Betting Tips.

2-0 last night. 186-129 this season.

W Dodgers First 5 Innings Moneyline (-132)
W Athletics/Angels Over 5 Runs First 5 Innings (-115)

A short slate, but a couple of winning bets to add to the total.

Today is Friday which means new series and a full slate. It also means that today’s Patreon post is completely free!

Last weekend was a great one. Let’s make this a great one too.

I have four bets today plus total bases props.

All MLB tips are based on the starting pitchers listed. Tips should be considered void if any pitching changes are made unless otherwise noted. Occasionally the “follower” will be listed as we are betting on who will pitch the bulk of the innings.

San Diego Padres at Baltimore Orioles Betting Tips:

SDP – Adam Mazur
BAL – Grayson Rodriguez

Mazur is one of the more hittable starters out there right now. In his seven starts, he has a 7.84 ERA/5.92 FIP with a huge walk rate, low strikeouts, and a .302 batting average against.

You put stats like that up against this Orioles offense on the road and bad things will happen to him. Good things for the Orioles though.

The Padres hit righties well, but I think Grayson Rodriguez can keep them quiet enough. He has a 3.83 ERA/3.55 FIP on the season with a huge strikeout rate.

Orioles -0.5 First 5 Innings (-138)

Atlanta Braves at New York Mets Betting Tips:

ATL – Charlie Morton
NYM – Kodai Senga

Another elite pitcher is returning from injury so let’s give it another shot.

Senga was quite good before going down with injury last season and the projections are high on him. I might have had some hesitation here if the Braves were in better form, but they are struggling right now. They have an 88 wRC+ on the road, an 84 wRC+ over the past month, and an 81 wRC+ over the past two weeks. Injuries have beaten them down and I think that’ll help us here.

Morton has been very good, but his match-up is just about the opposite. The Mets have a 123 wRC+ over the past thirty days and a 129 wRC+ over the past two weeks. They also have a 111 wRC+ against righties. This is a team that is just clicking right now and I think they get out ahead early.

Mets First 5 Innings Moneyline (-135)

New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox Betting Tips:

NYY – Nestor Cortes
BOS – Brayan Bello

This is my top run-scoring game of the day so naturally I’m going over. I have both teams over five runs, closer to six than five, and they are the #2 and #3 offenses of the day in my projections.

Cortes has struggled with 5 or more runs allowed in his last two starts, and 3+ runs in four of his past five.

Bello has looked better lately, but Fenway has not been kind to him with a 6.20 ERA/4.92 FIP in home starts.

Additionally, both bullpens are in a bad spot right now. Over the last two weeks, the Red Sox have a 6.30 ERA/5.94 FIP and the Yankees have a 3.73 ERA/5.54 FIP.

Oh, and both offenses are on fire right now. The Yankees have a 135 wRC+ over the last two weeks and the Red Sox have a 128 wRC+ over the same.

Yankees/Red Sox Over 9.5 Runs (-105)

Chicago Cubs at Kansas City Royals Betting Tips:

CHC – Kyle Hendricks
KCR – Brady Singer

We’ve done well with the Royals offense at home and this looks like another great spot for them.

Kyle Hendricks has a 6.69 ERA/5.43 FIP this season and a 6.11 ERA/6.60 FIP over his last four starts. He doesn’t get strikeouts and gives up home runs, a great target.

The Royals at home have a 110 wRC+ this season and a 111 wRC+ over the past two weeks. Bobby Witt Jr. is about the hottest hitter in the league right now and he should only continue to rake here. The Royals are my top offense of the day.

Royals Over 4.5 Runs (-120)
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Total Bases Props:

Total Bases Props are bet at $5. This prop may be listed as Total Bases (From Hits).

• BOS – Tyler O’Neill Over 1.5 Total Bases (+117)
• NYY – Aaron Judge Over 1.5 Total Bases (-122)
• NYY – Juan Soto Over 1.5 Total Bases (-104)
• SFG – Tyler Fitzgerald Over 1.5 Total Bases (+122)
• BAL – Gunnar Henderson Over 1.5 Total Bases (-104)

Judge, Henderson, and Soto rank 3rd, 4th, and 5th in total bases this season and are in nice spots to hit.

Tyler Fitzgerald has five home runs this week and a great pitching match-up.

Tyler O’Neil is also in a potentially high-scoring game and has hit this in four of his past five games.

One name missing here is Bobby Witt Jr. who has his number set at 2.5 by the sportsbooks. He’s probably still good at that number but doesn’t pass the rules I’ve set up for this bet.

The post July 26th, 2024 MLB Betting Tips appeared first on Vin & Graeme's Betting Tips.