Mind the FTSE

Play for Friday, July 17th (the last play of the day!)

2009-07-17T08:34:00.004+01:00

Good morning everyone!

I am a tad late this morning but I was off the desk from yesterday evening. This is the last play of the day entry: this blog is shutting down. I will be leaving for graduate school at the end of August and from next week onwards I am simply taking time off to get some rest and get things ready for my departure. No more trading for me.

Now, since I am short at 4352, I am going to pull and xTrends kind of chart (aka "Pulling an Atilla"): that is, I am going to post the only chart that support my position :-) and disregard everything else.

See the divergence on the hourly below, as we made higher highs on prices the RSI, ROC and Linear Regression Slope all posted negative divergences. I am sitting here hoping this works...

If it doesn't work, well I'll take the loss and be done with it and realise I was wrong...some pseudo traders that run a popular blog could learn from this.

Short at 4352

2009-07-16T07:52:00.002+01:00

This trade has a very wide stop, so be aware of the risk.

I am short at 4352 for a 30% fill, stop at 4430. I am short because we hit this retrace area and my stop is at the 78.6% line.

Be aware though....

2009-07-16T07:47:00.003+01:00

That yesterday's run took us in the 50% to 61.8% retrace from the May highs to Monday's lows, an ambush short area. This has occured on more than one index.

Play for Thursday, July 16th

2009-07-16T07:33:00.002+01:00

See retrace areas on the chart below, there are two areas into which to look for strength and go long:

4260s to 4280s: this is the preferred area, we also have the 7 day weighted moving average in the 4270s.
A larger retrace could takes to the 4200s - 4230s, an area that has provided resistance recently.

In either case, a small countertrend on the short side could be taken, but I would wait for a confirmation on intraday charts: yesterday's strength was impressive and retraces did not occur even on the smallest timeframes.

Short at 4346

2009-07-15T16:24:00.004+01:00

For a 10% fill only. Stop at 4375.

I am taking this just out of curiosity and for entertainment purposes. Last night, after ES re-opened higher, the FTSE was quoted exactly at 4346, then it stalled, and after four minutes went back into the 4260 (on my broker at least). Probably a system error...but still I am just too curious not to try on on a small position :-P

Update: well got stopped out of this entertainment trade. Damn....no magic number from yesterday's freak episode. Now flat and out and watching, recommend the same.

Staying flat

2009-07-15T09:05:00.003+01:00

We are barely making 50% retraces on the 1 minute chart to jump on the long bandwagon for scalps.

I am sure plenty of permabears will seek shorts at these levels: let's if the 4300 line holds at all, remember the triple top calls I was making back in May? In theory, the 4300 line should now act as resistance, but we have seen this penetrated to the upside already.

Best chances are to look for weakness close to 4300 for a quick short and/or be on the lookout for strength IF (big if) we retrace down.

I am staying flat for now.

Play for Wednesday, July 15th

2009-07-15T06:59:00.002+01:00

Given last night's jiggles, I will remain cautious today.

Daily momentum is looking north, while weekly momentum is looking south. We could range, we could trend, we could do a number of things: however, given daily momentum the bias is to look for a long entry.

However, given that we did not really break the 4290s (my broker went mad for 4 minutes last night), we could still seek weakness and retrace down to the 4180s to 4160s (a good spot to find strength). Otherwise, let's see if something can be scalped: again, I'd remain cautious on size until a proper trend or range has been re-established.

Ok, this is not cool....

2009-07-14T21:35:00.005+01:00

My broker stopped me out...apparently: at 9:30 UK Time ES re-opened after the pause and was quoted at 908. My brokers concurrently quoted the FTSE at 4346 on the bid...thank you!

Now the price is not moving: no wonder. My stop order is blinking and not executed for now.

Re-entered at 4239

2009-07-14T18:55:00.001+01:00

10% fill only, stop at 4255.

Partial cover

2009-07-14T15:45:00.004+01:00

I have covered my 4230 entry at 4207 for 23 points.

I am now left with a 20% fill from 4251 and have moved my stop to 4246.

Update: my leftover short got stopped out at 4246 for a modest 5 point profit. All flat now.

Added at 4251

2009-07-14T12:47:00.001+01:00

For a further 20% fill.

Short at 4230

2009-07-14T10:42:00.001+01:00

30% fill, stop at 4290.

Covered short at 4201

2009-07-14T08:07:00.001+01:00

From 4225 for 24 points.

Now flat.

Let's give the short side a chance....

2009-07-14T07:43:00.003+01:00

Short at 4225 for a scalp, 10% fill only, stop at 4240

Play for Tuesday, July 14th

2009-07-14T07:36:00.005+01:00

Let's keep it simple.

We are heading towards the upper trendline of the current downward channel and are within a 50%-61.8% retrace from the 4330s high reached on July 1st to yesterday's lows.

For a short look for weakness up to the 4250s, with a stop above 4290.

Otherwise, shall one wish to marry the long side, look for strength in the 4150s-4160s. The 7-day average however is in the 4180s and might provide support as well.

Daily momentum is positive, weekly momentum is negative. Happy Bastille Day!

Closed long at 4130

2009-07-13T08:59:00.001+01:00

From 4099 for 31 points.

Long at 4099

2009-07-13T08:07:00.002+01:00

For a scalp, 10% fill only, let's give it a chance! Stop at 4075.

Play for Monday, July 13th

2009-07-13T07:56:00.002+01:00

I am off the desk most of the morning (again), so I'll update later with charts.

We sold off from the 4150s last night and we currently quote in the 4110s. Intraday momentum, daily momentum and weekly momentum are all negative.

We might get a bounce: if we do it could be playable for a long. Areas to look for weakness are the 4140s to 4170s, the highs 4190s to 4200s and then the 4220s-4240s.

If we don't bounce, I'd sit tight and wait for a retrace to play.

Closed long at 4142

2009-07-10T16:11:00.002+01:00

From 4125, as we are approaching the close.

I am done for the week, have a good weekend!

Moving stop to breakeven

2009-07-10T15:42:00.000+01:00

On the small long I have from 4125.

Covered all shorts and flipped to long at 4125

2009-07-10T11:55:00.003+01:00

I have covered the short I had from 4214 and concurrently went long at 4125.

10% fill ONLY, stop at 4095: it's a countertrend trade, but I want to give it a try. I am done for the week after this trade however it goes.

Covered half position at 4134

2009-07-10T07:59:00.002+01:00

I covered my 4174 entry at 4134. We got the sell off even before open...

Left with the original 20% at 4214, and moved the stop at 4182.

Play for Friday, July 10th

2009-07-10T06:53:00.004+01:00

Yesterday we respected the black trendline in the chart below, and obviously stayed well within the current channel (in pink).

However, intraday momentum is currently mixed: looking south on shorter time frames and up on longer ones. Daily and weekly momentum is looking day, and the 7 day weighted moving average (which often acts are resistance/support) is at 4169.

There is a strong chance we might get a sell off at the open, but I'd keep a an open mind: as mentioned yesterday, a more significant retrace up could get us up to the 4230s-4250s.

I am maintaining my current trade, which is set up to stop at breakeven.

Moving my stop

2009-07-09T14:48:00.001+01:00

To 4195, putting on a risk free trade. Momentum is rising on 4 hour charts, better be safe.

Added short at 4174

2009-07-09T11:12:00.002+01:00

For a further 20% fill, stop for whole position still at 4230.