Loudoun Scene

Loudoun County Housing Market Update – September 2012

2012-10-26T20:00:09Z

In case you’re wondering what the Loudoun County housing market is like, here’s the 411… In layman’s terms, it’s really good for sellers and tough for buyers. Why? Because Loudoun’s housing inventory is very low while an increasing number of buyers are out taking advantage of the ridiculously low interest rates. This makes for more buyers looking at the same properties (good for sellers) and fewer options and increased competition for buyers (not good for buyers).

If you’re a numbers person, here are the statistics broken down for you (if you can’t see the document below, click here)…

Loudoun Housing Market Stats – September 2012

If you would like a more detailed market statistics report for your specific town, subdivision or property type, click here and send me a note with what you need.

Loudoun Housing Market Good for Sellers, Tough for Buyers

2012-08-25T16:47:54Z

Loudoun County’s housing market has been getting better for sellers while becoming tougher for buyers. The main reason behind it all is inventory.

Loudoun’s housing market has seen inventory levels go down over the past 5 years. But this year has really seen a drop. Or actually…a lack of a rise during the “spring market” of 2012.

As you can see in the following chart, the number of active listings (houses for sale on the market for buyers to choose from) went from 3,540 in September 2007 to 1,087 in December 2009. This was mainly due to the number of short-sales and foreclosures/bank-owned properties for sale dwindle.

Once we got to 2010, the market got back to its’ typical cycle of seeing inventory rise during the spring and fall markets and drop during the summer and winter months. This was a good sign because it signaled a return to a healthy(ier) market.

But then take a look at what happened this year…

Rather than the previous two year’s 42 percent jump from about 1200 to 1700 active listings on the market in Loudoun County, this year’s spring market saw only about a 15 percent increase in active listings in Loudoun County. But the number of buyers increased (mainly due to new-record low mortgage rates and increased consumer confidence). This created a low-supply/high-demand scenario which is ideal for sellers and not so great for buyers.

What does this mean if you are a seller in Loudoun County?

more buyers fighting over your house (multiple offers if your home is priced correctly)
higher sales prices (home values have been steadily increasing for about 2 years now and it’s especially the case in 2012)
your home will sell faster (average days on market is lower than it has been in several years – it’s as low as 8 days in some areas)
the ball is in your court when it comes to negotiating (not saying you can be completely ruthless in your demands to the buyer, but sellers have more leverage now than they have in over half a decade)

What does this mean if you’re a home buyer in Loudoun County?

less homes to choose from and more time to find one (you may have to be more patient and spend more time looking for your perfect home in your perfect location and/or make some compromises to the home and/or location)
you may be competing against other buyers’ offers (very much the case if the property is priced at or below market value)
you may not get all of your demands met come negotiating time (the ball is in the sellers’ court right now so asking for reasonable things is one thing, asking for the sun, moon and stars included with the house is another)
you will have to act quickly once a good deal this the market (guarantee there is at least one other buyer with serious eyes on the same “good deal” who is contacting their agent to go see it and probably submit an offer immediately)
you may want to look at new home construction options – many other buyers are (blog post on this coming soon)

There are more bullet points than just the ones above, but this gives you a general idea of how the market is like and what it means to sellers and buyers. If you would like to know more or to find out what the market is like in the specific community/subdivision you live in or are interested in buying within, click here to contact me and I’ll get back to you right away.

Loudoun County New Construction Home Prices Rising

2012-08-10T21:02:45Z

Loudoun County new construction homes prices are up and continuing to rise. How much are they up? And how much higher will they go? Let’s take a look…

Before we start, let me tell you how I came about these numbers. They come from conversations with Loudoun County new construction home builders and first hand experience representing home buyers purchasing new construction homes throughout Loudoun County.

Past 18 months

Loudoun County new construction home prices have gone up about five percent over the past 18 months. This is the average…some communities have gone up about three percent in price while others have gone up as much as seven percent.

For example…Toll Brothers has increased their base prices on their condo/town homes in their Loudoun Valley community about $15K over the past 18 months. Considering their base prices then versus now and the options that used to be standard then, but you now have to pay for, that’s an increase of about seven percent.

Next 6 months

The next 6 months are going to see an even greater increase in prices/values. Based on what Loudoun County new construction home builders are currently doing and say they’re going to do over the next 6 months, we’re going to see prices go up by anywhere from 2 to 4 percent between now and the end of the year.

For example…The latest new construction home I’ve helped a buyer purchase was 2 weeks ago – it was a Pulte condo/town home at Goose Creek Village in Ashburn. Pulte in Goose Creek Village is set to increase their condo/town home base prices $2,000 on their next building and that and possibly more every building release for the rest of the year. And they have several buildings set for release between now and then end of the year.

In addition to the increase in base prices, Pulte is going to take away some of the standard options which are currently included in the base price. This means that buyers will have pay more upfront and then more down the road (in options) to get the same finished home as everyone else in the community. Based on conversations with the sales reps and Pulte’s option pricing, we’re talking about around $1,000 in currently standard/free options which will no longer be standard/free in the next building release. And they will most likely continue this option-take-away trend moving forward.

Based on the current base prices ($289,990), the increase in base prices and the option-take-away, it’s a one percent increase in overall price/value per building. And based on the number of buildings being released over the next 5 to 6 months, we’re looking at an increase of three percent by year’s end. That equals a potential increase in prices/values of six percent per year.

In case you’re wondering, taking away standard/free options is common practice for new construction home builders. Builders throughout Loudoun County are increasing base prices while removing standard/free options are the same time. Builders do it to make more money while remaining competitive with other builders’ base prices.

Why is this information important to you?

If you’re a home buyer ready to purchase at this very moment, you can get into a new construction home in Loudoun County and gain equity by the time you move in. And if you buy an existing home (aka resale), you’ll be riding the market as time goes on.
If you’re a home buyer purchasing in the next 1 to 6 months, be prepared to pay more then than you would today.
If you’re a current or soon-to-be home seller, the market conditions are on your side.
If you’re a home owner, you’re home is gaining value thanks to Loudoun County new construction home prices increasing as well as the general Loudoun County real estate market being on the rise (blog post on this topic coming soon)

If you would like more information about a particular new construction home builder/community in the area or the Loudoun County real estate market in general, drop me a line any time (click here to contact me).

-Danilo

Loudoun County Approves Phase Two of Dulles Metro Rail Project

2012-07-05T16:52:29Z

In a 5-4 vote on Tuesday, the Loudoun County Board of Supervisors approved phase two of the Dulles Metro Rail project. With Loudoun opting in, work on the $3B second phase of the project will begin shortly with a planned opening of the metro rail stops sometime in 2018.

Leading up the Tuesday’s final vote and July 4 deadline, the Board was split 4-5 leaning toward opting out of the project. The word on the street was that much of the business community supported the metro rail project while residents were split if not more residents opposing it than supporting it.

One of the reasons the Loudoun Board of Supervisors ended up voting to opt in to the second phase of the Dulles Metro Rail project may have been Dr. Stephen Fuller’s study on the impact of the metro rail on Loudoun County’s future. The study came out May 9. Here is the study…

Dr Stephen Fuller Loudoun County Metro Rail Impact –

Whether you are for or against Loudoun County opting in to the second phase of the Duller Metro Rail project, the debate is over. It’s now time to make the best of the situation and do whatever we can to make sure Loudoun County businesses and residents benefit the most possible from the metro rail coming to Loudoun.

UPDATE: Dulles Metro Rail Project, Silver Line

2012-06-21T19:09:09Z

It’s the hottest topic in Loudoun and Northern VA in general…the Dulles/Silver Line Metro Rail and whether Loudoun County is in or out of the second phase of the project. Well, here’s the latest…

Loudoun County will vote July 3 on whether to opt in or out of the second phase of the Dulles/Silver Line Metro Rail project. The Loudoun County Board of Supervisors have been pretty much solely focused on this huge decision for months now. And with less than 2 weeks left, it’s crunch time.

One major new development which may help the Loudoun Board of Supervisors feel more comfortable about opting in to the project is MWAA’s reversal of course on its’ controversial Project Labor Agreement (PLA).

The Dulles Area Association of REALTORS(r) announced its’ support for the project. Take a peek at the article and make sure you check out the links at the bottom – lots of good articles regarding the latest on the Dulles/Silver Line Metro Rail project.

There are still skeptics out there (including me) about whether the project makes financial sense to Loudoun and whether MWAA is getting over on everybody. Some are just skeptics based on funding models, tax implications, crude surveys/projections, etc., while others are flat out opposed to the project – now or ever. And both sides are being very vocal about their views (as they should be with this being a monumental decision that will affect Loudoun for decades).

The Dulles/Silver Line Metro Rail Project has been the most heated debate in Loudoun in years, if not decades. It’s going to be interesting to find out the final vote on July 3 and watch the aftermath of that decision, whichever way it goes. I can tell you that the vote may be in a week and a half, but the discussion is far from over.

How’s the Loudoun/Northern Virginia Real Estate Market?

2012-05-29T18:37:11Z

It’s the question on the mind of ever seller, buyer, homeowner and even renter, “How’s the real estate market?” And not just in Loudoun County, but Northern Virginia and the DC metro area in general. Well, you may be surprised at the answer…

It’s pretty darn hot.

Yes, I said “pretty darn hot”. Because that’s what it is.

It’s not crazy hot like the boom market back in ’03 – ’06. But it’s still got some heat to it. If you’re in the market to buy a home or selling your home, you probably know what I’m talking about. If you’re not, let me fill you in…

Inventory is down (less to choose from)
Buyer demand is up (more buyers fighting over the same properties)
Interest rates have hit two new historic lows within the past month (money is cheaper than ever before)
General consumer confidence is on the rise (buyers waiting on the sidelines are now becoming active buyers)

This is the ultimate formula for a pretty darn hot market with increasing market values.

The Loudoun and general Northern Virginia real estate market has been getting better and getting hotter for about a year now. But the last 5 months have really been on fire.

Days on market is down to 55 days (signals a seller’s market)
Average sold to list price is up (less negotiating room)
Sold listings are up (buyer demand is up)
Median sold price hit a double bottom and is on the way up (signals price appreciation/values going up)
The number of homes going under contract each month went from 337 in December 2011 to 642 in April (buyer demand is up)

Sellers have noticed and become more optimistic and firm in their asking/list prices. But savvy buyers are still looking for the best deals, know market values better than ever before and are continuing to negotiate hard.

In the end though, sellers do have the upper hand mainly because there is so little inventory to choose from and that tips the supply/demand scale in sellers’ favor.

Personally, I think we need more inventory on the market. I’m all for a healthy market with rising market values. But buyers are getting frustrated at how little they have to choose from and/or how long they have to search to find a house that meets their needs. More inventory would help out buyers while giving sellers one of the best markets to sell a home in since the middle of the last decade (hint hint).

Dulles, Loudoun Metro Rail Project Update (and my $0.02)

2012-04-18T21:43:46Z

There’s been a lot of talk lately about the Dulles/Loudoun metro rail project. It’s a hot topic because there’s a lot of money involved and a lot at stake – for everyone. Well, here’s an update…

I had the opportunity to attend a forum on the Dulles/Loudoun metro rail project last month. It took place at the Dulles Area Association of REALTORS(r) and featured three speakers…

Pat Nowakowski, Chief Construction Manager, Dulles Rail, MWAA
Patricia Nikoson, President, Dulles Corridor Rail Association
Honorable Suzanne Volpe, Loudoun County Board of Supervisors

Here’s the update in a nutshell…

Loudoun County is still up in the air as to whether they want to commit to Phase 2 of the Dulles/Loudoun metro rail project.
Loudoun received a one-month extension from June 4, 2012 to July 4, 2012 to decide whether they’re in or out (a bit ironic that the deadline is “Independence Day”)
If Loudoun opts in, they will move forward with the plans to extend the metro rail all the way to Route 772 (Loudoun County Parkway)
If Loudoun opts out, the metro rail will stop at Dulles airport
As you may have already guessed, Pat Nowakowsk and Patricia Nikoson are proponents of extending the metro rail all the way to Route 772 while the Honorable Suzanne Volke and the Loudoun County Board of Supervisors in general are a bit skeptical about it
Loudoun is skeptical because the studies conducted are not very in-depth and leave out key considerations that should be taken into account. In situations like this, not being thorough and not taking everything into consideration can easily equal millions of more dollars in additional costs to Loudoun.

Here is my $0.02…

The Dulles/Loudoun metro rail project sounds good at first. The metro rail out to Arlington and then Falls Church and Vienna made a large and good impact on Fairfax County and didn’t empty their coffers. And extending the metro rail to Tyson’s and Reston makes sense as well. So it should be good for Loudoun as well, right?

After looking at the small print, I don’t think so. And here’s why…

Fairfax County has a corporate tax base of 30+ percent. But Loudoun has a corporate tax base of only about 18 percent. This means that Loudoun County home owners will bear a much higher responsibility when it comes to paying the tens of millions of dollars per year in operating and maintenance costs associated with the Dulles/Loudoun metro rail project.

Fairfax County has a much higher population than Loudoun County – 1,086,743 versus 312,311 (2010). This puts the cost/tax burden per resident and home owner in Fairfax County at a much lower amount than per resident in Loudoun County.

A good number of folks who will use the metro rail in Reston and Tysons’ will be working in Fairfax County and bringing jobs (and corporate taxes) to Fairfax County to help offset the cost. Some of them will also live in Fairfax County which will add to the residential/home owner taxes collected by Fairfax County.

On the other hand, the overwhelming majority of people using the metro rail in Loudoun County will be commuting to/from jobs in Fairfax County, Washington, DC and other parts of the metro area – not Loudoun County.

And let’s not forget to address the issue of people who live in other counties in VA, West Virgina or even Maryland who will be commuting along Route 50, Route 7, Route 9 and Route 15 to the metro station in order to go work in Fairfax County, DC, etc.

In essence, Loudoun County will be subsidizing neighboring localities and non-Loudoun residents.

Yes, subsidizing. Because for every dollar it costs someone to ride the metro, Loudoun will pay about half of that out of the county budget. When a metro rail rider pays $5 for a fare card, Loudoun will have to cough up about the same amount to cover the actual cost of trip.

Where does the money come from for that subsidizing? Taxes. And with such a low corporate tax base, it’s Loudoun County home owners who will get the bill stuck to them. It’s either that or Loudoun starts cutting services (and we all know how well that will go over with residents).

Now here’s the kicker (warning, PG-13 language coming up)…

Loudoun is damned if they do and damned if they don’t.

If Loudoun does NOT back out of the full Dulles/Loudoun metro rail project (aka Phase 2), they will be going in semi-blind not knowing what to fully expect when it comes to ridership, costs, future impact on residents and home-owners, etc. Current operating/maintenance costs are estimated at $30M per year. That’s a lot of money per year, but it could be a lot more than that (and most likely will be).

If Loudoun DOES back out, albeit lower, they will still have to pay a percentage of the metro rail project out to Dulles Airport. And many metro rail proponents will call the current Loudoun County Board of Superivsors, “the ones that killed that metro rail project”.

A deal with the devil was made…

Yes, I said devil. Because that’s what MWAA is starting to look and feel like. MWAA is paying a percentage of the costs of building the metro rail, but they are not responsible for much, if any of the operating/maintenance costs. And they’re passing the buck of paying the debt service on to guess who…the counties.

All the while, MWAA will retain control of the toll amount on the Toll Rd. They’ve already received approval from Virginia to raise the rates over the course of the next decade or so. Imagine paying $5 at the smaller tolls along the Dulles Toll Rd and over $16 at the big Dulles Greenway Toll (that’s each way).

Now stop imaging. Because that’s what they project tolls will be by 2026 – and that’s IF the operating and maintenance costs of the metro rail stay in line with MWAA’s “projections”.

On a related note…the Dulles Greenway is the most expensive road to drive on per mile in the United States. And the deal MWAA got on the road/land to begin with makes what they’re charging highway robbery (literally).

In case you’re wondering how Loudoun got stuck in this position to begin with…well…that’s a conversation for another day. Unfortunately, there’s no third option. It’s either in or out and both options cost a lot of money.

The current Loudoun County Board of Supervisors have it tough… They have the responsibility of making what is probably the biggest and most financially influential decision in Loudoun County’s history. And there’s no option that won’t cost Loudoun residents a lot of money nor leave both sides of the fence happy.

P.S. There were many more details discussed during the Dulles/Loudoun metro rail presentation. If you would like to get those details or discuss the project and its’ impact on Loudoun in more depth, feel free to call me – 703.582.6900.

Loudoun County Spring Real Estate Market Is In Full Effect

2012-03-14T20:15:15Z

The Loudoun County “spring real estate market” is in full effect. The number of available homes for sale is on the rise. And the number of homes going under contract is on the rise as well. If you are waiting for the “spring market” to get here, you’d better jump in now because it’s about halfway over.

That’s right…about halfway over. I’ve been saying it for years (because it’s true) – the “spring market” starts in January. The number of homes that go under contract starts to rise sharply in January and continues through the end of May/early June. In plain English…lots of home buyers get super serious and start writing offers on homes in January and continue doing so through about the end of May/early June. Then the hot, humid, vacation and kids-back-in-school months of July, August and September roll around and the market fizzles out a bit.

To put it in visual terms, here is a graph showing the number of new, ratified contracts on homes for sale in Loudoun County…

And here is a graph showing the number of new listings coming on the market…

There are pros and cons to this time of year. If you’re a buyer, you have more choices. But you also have more competition when submitting offers. As a seller, you have more buyers looking at your property. But you also have more competition from your neighbors who are also getting looked at by the same buyers that looked at your house.

P.S. The same holds true for the rest of Northern Virginia. And this is not just a “2012 thing” – this trend repeats itself year after year in this area.

If you have questions about a specific town, community or subdivision, let me know. I’d be glad to send you a hyper-local report for the area you’re in or thinking about buying in.

Be Wary of Fluff in Listing Remarks

2011-12-14T19:09:40Z

If you’ve ever searched for a home whether to buy or just seeing what’s out there, you’ve read the various remarks describing each property. And you may have noticed that some remarks/descriptions are more factual based while others are more descriptive and use a lot of adjectives…or as I like to call it, “fluff”. Facts are good, but you should be wary of fluff.

What are facts and what is fluff when it comes to listing remarks/descriptions?

Here is an example of a fact-based description/listing remarks…

This 4 BR, 2.5 BA, 3 level brick front town home has been renovated/updated throughout – kitchen, basement, bathrooms, fixtures, appliances, flooring, paint, landscaping, etc. Town home is in back of circle and backs to trees/common area. Fully finished walk-out basement, fenced in backyard w/brick patio & veg/flower garden. 2 assigned parking spaces + visitor spots. Comes w/home warranty policy.

And here is an example of a fluff-based description/listing remarks…

This charming rambler is a perfect 10! Great fully finished basement and incredible den/study attic. Closets galore! Private patio oasis out back. Backyard to die for! Your clients will be more than pleased.

See the difference?

Now why should you be wary of a “fluff” description like the one above? Let me tell you from first hand experience that the property with the “fluff” listing above was,

not charming
was not even close to being a perfect 10 (more like a 5)
the basement was far from great
the den/study attic was far from incredible
it had just an average number of closets for a rambler built in that year
the patio was far from being an oasis
the backyard was small, severely sloped toward the back of the house and needed serious landscaping help
and my clients were less than pleased (aka ticked off) that they wasted their time and mine going to see the property.

Speaking from experience and in talking with other agents and buyers, I can tell you that the greater the number of adjectives (descriptive words such as “great”, “beautiful”, etc), typically the worse the condition of the property is as compared to the description and the worse the let down is when a buyer sees the property in person.

Remember folks…the listing remarks/descriptions are written by either the seller or the listing agent (typically the listing agent). The listing agent’s goal is to get you to see the property in person and then to submit an offer. Some agents seem to believe that “fluff” will get both of these goals accomplished which is why you see so many “descriptive” words being used in descriptions. The problem with that theory is that the description may get buyers to come through the door, but then the buyers are ticked off that the description was a bunch of you-know-what and submitting an offer is the furthest thing from the buyer’s mind.

I’m not saying you or any other buyer should totally avoid listings that have such descriptions. Just be aware of what may happen and don’t get your hopes up only to be let down.

TIP: If you see a home for sale with a lot of fluff in the description, have your buyer’s agent preview the property on their own and report their findings back to you. That way, you avoid wasting your time going to see a property which won’t work for you.

On a related note…if you’re a seller that thinks fluff will get you an offer or you’re working with a listing agent that wants to use a lot of fluff or embellish, know that buyers and buyer’s agent are cautious and often turned off by such remarks. Be honest, straight forward and “wow” buyers with (real) photos of your property showing them how awesome it is. If you’re property is “beautiful” and “to die for”, the property will speak for itself.

Thanks!

2011-11-23T18:17:54Z

There’s a lot for me to be thankful for this Thanksgiving. One of those things is you – those of you reading this post and my blog in general and past, current and future clients.

You have taken time out of your day to read my blogs, make comments, provide feedback and contact me both online and offline.

You have and continue to trust me to represent you and guide you through the process of buying and selling your home.

You connect me with friends, family and co-workers who are thinking of buying or selling their home because you trust I can help them.

For this and many other reasons, I am grateful to you.

To sum it up in one word…

“Thanks!”

Sincerely,

Danilo