The supply of workers 16 to 24 years old has peaked and will drop by a third in the next 12 years, thanks to stringent family-planning policies that have sharply reduced China’s population growth.

In Zhongshan, many factories are operating with vacancies of 15 to 20 percent, compelling some bosses to cruise the streets in their BMWs and Mercedeses in a desperate hiring quest during crunch time.

The other new reality, perhaps harder to quantify, is this: young Chinese factory workers, raised in a country with rapidly rising expectations, are less willing to toil for long hours for appallingly low wages like dutiful automatons.

We might say of friendships that they are a matter not of diversion or of return but of meaning. They render us vulnerable, and in doing so they add dimensions of significance to our lives that can only arise from being, in each case, friends with this or that particular individual, a party to this or that particular life.

It is precisely this non-economic character that is threatened in a society in which each of us is thrown upon his or her resources and offered only the bywords of ownership, shopping, competition, and growth. It is threatened when we are encouraged to look upon those around us as the stuff of our current enjoyment or our future advantage. It is threatened when we are led to believe that friendships without a recognizable gain are, in the economic sense, irrational. Friendships are not without why, perhaps, but they are certainly without that particular why.

May, following Aristotle, identifies three types of friendships: pleasure friendships, entrepreneurial friendships (think ‘networking’), and true friendships. I think the hallmark of ‘true friendship’ is its orientation to the other. In the first two types, one is self-serving, while true friendship is concerned with the welfare of others. This reminds me of ‘Abdu’l-Baha’s description of the ideal relationship in a marriage:

They are two helpmates, two intimate friends, who should be concerned about the welfare of each other. If they live thus, they will pass through this world with perfect contentment, bliss, and peace of heart, and become the object of divine grace and favour…

As with material goods, Africa is a primary producer of intellectual resources, and also a consumer of finished intellectual products, but makes little contribution to the value that is added in between. Much (perhaps most) African intellectual production occurs under northern (American and European) contracts. Consequently, Africa’s intellectual agenda is set outside the continent, with African scholars are co-opted as consultants and primary researchers, while the ablest of them are provided with careers in western universities, research institutes and policy institutions. The final product is then re-exported, its value having been multiplied many times over, to Africa for consumption by African people, governments and institutions. The fact that African names appear as authors of these products does not necessarily mean that they are more “African-owned” than a mobile phone containing African coltan is an African product. Meanwhile African leaders have become so estranged from the structures of intellectual production that they overlook the strategic importance of paying for domestic universities and research and hence owning the processes of generating and refining ideas.

The next generation also speaks: Iyinoluwa “E” Aboyeji, a Nigerian student at the University of Waterloo:

The current system where African higher education receives little or no support while universities in the west launch multi-million dollar “Development Research Centres” they don’t need is not only clearly unsustainable, but highly self serving. It pushes an imperialistic mindset that allows western institutions to serve as command centres for Africa’s economic and political systems without the proper context and it leaches Africa’s best academic minds, leaving young Africans not fortunate enough to afford an expensive international education largely clueless and underesourced with respect to international development issues in their own countries (HT: Chris Blattman).

It all makes David Strangway’s proposal for Africa Research Chairs sound like an opportunity for far-sighted donors to invest in long-term Africa’s development.

While news of the court date is not yet available, people around the world are sending the same message: ‘you are not alone’. Today, there were 87 cities participating in the Global Day of Action for human rights in Iran. Many of these demonstrations drew attention to the condition imprisoned Baha’i leaders, with Amnesty International calling them ‘prisoners of conscience’.

For another day, our thoughts and prayers remain with Fariba Kamalabadi, Jamaloddin Khanjani, Afif Naeimi, Saeid Rezaie, Mahvash Sabet, Behrouz Tavakkoli, and Vahid Tizfahm

.

As always, updates are available at Iran Press Watch.

Chloë set the tempo by excerpting her very funny publication in McSweeney’s Internet Tendency, “Rap Lyrics of the (17)90’s”. Ever wondered what Vanilla Ice or Will Smith would have rapped out 200 years ago? Chloë has:

“Birthed and reared in West Philadelphia, the days of my childhood and early youth were spent in the wildernesses just beyond our village, where my companions and I passed many an hour roaming free and frolicking, oftentimes playing ball sports in the proximity of the schoolhouse. I recall a certain occasion on which two wastrels came upon us, interrupted our pursuits, caused a general ruckus, and incited a fray. Upon my honour, had I not been bested by these mongrels, no doubt my loving mother would not have laid her heavy hand and decided my future in such an immovable manner as she then did. Her words, as I recollect, were ‘Get thee to Bel Air forthwith, where you will live with your aunt and uncle in peace, and whence you will return only when you have become a man, noble as any other.’ Alas! What choice had I, but to summon a cab and depart from that dear childhood home? How strange it was to see that the approaching buggy appeared to be painted with nonsensical lettering and festooned with the symbols of gambling and sin. Yet I disregarded it and considered it a rarity. ‘To Bel Air, if you please’ said I to the cabbie as together we heaved up my trunk. At perhaps seven or eight of the clock, after some hours of evening travel, the buggy came to a halt at the entrance of a grand house. After bidding the driver farewell, I regarded my new lodgings. Here would I be educated. Here would I learn my place in the family. Here would I reign, in a sense, as the new prince of Bel Air.”

In questioning where humor is cruel or kind, it is worth remembering two key elements of good comedy. The best humor is often directed at oneself. And timing is everything. Many of the best religious jokes have a punch line that returns to the teller’s own faith: the rabbi tweaks Judaism and the Presbyterian minister ends the joke with a surprise insight into his sober faith. In the current global environment where we so badly need to build and cement a nuanced and thoughtful appreciation of the strengths and weaknesses of all religions, Islam included, and to turn our commitment to human rights into something that that truly enhances the human condition, the timing and tenor of jokes need wisdom more than legislation, good timing more than bans.

Cue Omid Djalili:

If everyone who said they wanted to move to the United States actually did so, the population of the U.S. would grow by 60 percent. The ability to attract immigrants is not all good, of course, but it does speak to the country’s capacity to regenerate itself and stave off a decline in population. America’s two major great power rivals – China and Russia – can boast of no such attraction.

While I agree with Greg’s point, it’s also worth saying that just because about 180 million people want to migrate to the US, most of them would not be able to even if it were legal. Many could not afford it, most do not have the social resources/networks to successfully relocate, and even more would ultimately choose to remain close to family, friends, and familiarity. Still, the survey is a good indication of the type of migration pressure that will be growing in the years to come, especially as economic growth in developing countries advances — giving more people the resources and will to move.

HT: Andrew Sullivan

I get the sense that the ‘humanitarian’ perception of Africa is shifting dramatically. The shift is driven by a number of factors: an increasingly confident and unified continent, declining armed conflict, impressive rates of economic growth in a set of countries, and most of all by the full-court press of economic and political engagement by emerging powers. The inability of many foreign aid programs to show significant results for decades of spending doesn’t help. What all of this means is that Africa is increasingly seen in ’strategic’ terms rather than ‘humanitarian’ ones. Promoting trade, investment, and key bilateral relations are trumping development assistance in the design of foreign policy.

This emerging sea change in thinking is reflected in a number of places. Read the Economist’s coverage of Africa, or the Financial Times, for that matter. The recent issue of the Globe and Mail, edited by Bono and Bob Geldof, featured a narrative of a rising Africa, not a needy one. World Bank Executives are talking about Africa as the next ‘BRIC’ country. The most comprehensive treatment of the theme, however, is in the new Chatham House report, “Our Common Strategic Interests: Africa’s Role in a Post-G8 World.” here is a snapshot:

A strong diplomatic and trade engagement with Africa matters. Africa is the foundation of the global supply chain – a strategic source of almost 40% of the raw materials, agriculture, fresh water and energy essential for global growth. Its rainforests play a central role in the planet’s climate. Its population of one billion are increasingly important consumers. Africa is strategically placed between time zones, continents and hemispheres. However, the overwhelmingly humanitarian interest of many Western countries and traditional partners has led to stereotyped perceptions of Africa in terms only of problems. These views are increasingly patronizing, recursive, out of touch, and a deterrent to serious business interest. Meanwhile the emerging economic powers of the G20 see Africa in terms of opportunities – as a place in which to invest, gain market share and win access to resources.

The Chatham House report is a sign of the times; the crest of a wave signalling a far-reaching sea change in the official policy discussion about Africa in western countries.

In measuring immediate well-being — yesterday’s emotional state — the researchers found that stress declines from age 22 onward, reaching its lowest point at 85. Worry stays fairly steady until 50, then sharply drops off. Anger decreases steadily from 18 on, and sadness rises to a peak at 50, declines to 73, then rises slightly again to 85. Enjoyment and happiness have similar curves: they both decrease gradually until we hit 50, rise steadily for the next 25 years, and then decline very slightly at the end, but they never again reach the low point of our early 50s. (From: NY Times)

Let me start with a riddle: What trillion dollar economy has grown faster than Brazil and India between 2000 and 2010 in nominal dollar terms and is projected by the IMF to grow faster than Brazil between 2010 and 2015? The answer may surprise you: it is Sub-Saharan Africa!

The Big Idea is that sub-Saharan Africa is on the verge of joining the ranks of the BRICs. As the world gets out of the global recession, forecasts made by the IMF and the World Bank stress that given the need for fiscal retrenchment in the advanced countries, some rebalancing of global demand is needed to sustain economic growth. Africa can serve as a new source of global demand. It’s only a matter of time before its population rivals that of China and India. As Bob Zoellick noted in a recent speech, we must start thinking about a “multipolar growth world”, where Africa can take its rightful place.

Her colleague, Shanta Devarajan, sympathizes with the point while disagreeing with the comparison:

First, Africa is not a country, whereas each of the BRICs is.  Africa is 47 countries, some of which are quite small (20 countries have populations less than 5 million).  The distinguishing feature of the BRICs is that they are both middle-income and large.  So it’s not clear how any individual African country can aspire to being a BRIC. Countries such as Malaysia or Chile may be more appropriate models for most African countries.

Shanta is right, of course. Such comparisons are facile, and can mask more than they reveal. But the broader point that sub-Saharan Africa is emerging from a long period of decline is one that is not often appreciated. Poverty rates are falling by at least one percent a year (by some accounting), and projections of population growth (including in the middle classes) indicate that Africa will become an increasingly important consumer market  … not just a producer of raw materials for rich countries. Furthermore, while poverty is endemic in Africa, there are more poor people in India (and probably in China, although I haven’t seen the numbers). What we have is a perception problem about Africa, and at least the World Bank is trying to shift it.