US Non-Immigrants

March 2024 Visa Bulletin Summary: Key Insights, Predictions and Updates

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Sun, 24 Mar 2024 17:57:00 +0000

March 2024 Visa Bulletin Summary: Key Insights and Updates

Introduction:

The March 2024 Visa Bulletin, released by the U.S. Department of State, provides crucial information on immigrant visa availability for individuals seeking permanent residency in the United States. This summary highlights key insights and updates from the latest bulletin, offering valuable insights for immigrants, employers, and immigration professionals.

Priority Date Movements:

A. FINAL ACTION DATES FOR EMPLOYMENT-BASED PREFERENCE CASES

The table below outlines the final action dates for various employment-based preference categories:

Employment-based	All Chargeability Areas Except Those Listed	China - mainland born	India	Mexico	Philippines
1st	C	15JUL22	01OCT20	C	C
2nd	22NOV22	01JAN20	01MAR12	22NOV22	22NOV22
3rd	08SEP22	01SEP20	01JUL12	08SEP22	08SEP22
Other Workers	08SEP20	01JAN17	01JUL12	08SEP20	01MAY20
4th	01DEC19	01DEC19	01DEC19	01DEC19	01DEC19
Certain Religious Workers	01DEC19	01DEC19	01DEC19	01DEC19	01DEC19
5th Unreserved (including C5, T5, I5, R5)	C	15DEC15	01DEC20	C	C
5th Set Aside: Rural (20%)	C	C	C	C	C
5th Set Aside: High Unemployment (10%)	C	C	C	C	C
5th Set Aside: Infrastructure (2%)	C	C	C	C	C

B. DATES FOR FILING OF EMPLOYMENT-BASED VISA APPLICATIONS

The table below reflects the dates for filing visa applications within a timeframe justifying immediate action in the application process:

Employment-based	All Chargeability Areas Except Those Listed	China - mainland born	India	Mexico	Philippines
1st	C	01JAN23	01JAN21	C	C
2nd	15FEB23	01JUN20	15MAY12	15FEB23	15FEB23
3rd	01FEB23	01JUL21	01AUG12	01FEB23	01JAN23
Other Workers	15DEC20	01JUN17	01AUG12	15DEC20	15MAY20
4th	01JAN20	01JAN20	01JAN20	01JAN20	01JAN20
Certain Religious Workers	01JAN20	01JAN20	01JAN20	01JAN20	01JAN20
5th Unreserved (including C5, T5, I5, R5)	C	01JAN17	01APR22	C	C
5th Set Aside: Rural (20%)	C	C	C	C	C
5th Set Aside: High Unemployment (10%)	C	C	C	C	C
5th Set Aside: Infrastructure (2%)	C	C	C	C	C

C. DATES FOR FILING OF FAMILY BASED VISA APPLICATIONS

The table below reflects the dates for filing family-based visa applications within a timeframe justifying immediate action in the application process:

Family-based	All Chargeability Areas Except Those Listed	China - mainland born	India	Mexico	Philippines
F1	C	01JAN23	01JAN21	C	C
F2A	C	C	C	C	C
F2B	C	C	C	C	C
F3	C	C	C	C	C
F4	C	C	C	C	C

Predictions:

Predictions for both Employment-Based (EB) and Family-Based categories are as follows:

Employment-Based (EB) Categories:

Category	Predictions
EB-1	Current priority dates are expected to remain stable or experience slight advancement due to ongoing demand for highly skilled professionals and individuals with extraordinary abilities.
EB-2	Priority dates are likely to see slight advancement or stability, reflecting continued demand for professionals with advanced degrees or exceptional abilities.
EB-3	Limited forward movement or even retrogression may occur in priority dates for skilled workers and professionals, particularly for oversubscribed countries, due to sustained demand.
EB-4	Priority dates are expected to remain current or experience slight advancement, indicating stable visa availability for certain special immigrants.
EB-5	Current priority dates are anticipated to be maintained, reflecting ongoing demand for immigrant investors.

Family-Based Categories:

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Category	Predictions
F1	Priority dates may continue to advance gradually, reflecting ongoing demand for family-sponsored immigrant visas.
F2A	Priority dates are expected to remain current, indicating consistent visa availability for this category.
F2B	Priority dates may see modest advancement, reflecting ongoing demand but with relatively stable visa availability.
F3	Priority dates may advance gradually, reflecting sustained demand for family-sponsored immigrant visas.
F4	Priority dates are anticipated to advance slowly, reflecting limited visa availability and high demand in this category.

This summary provides an overview of the expected trends and movements in both Employment-Based and Family-Based visa categories, based on the information provided in the March 2024 Visa Bulletin.

July 2012 Visa Bulletin Predictions - EB Category

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Sat, 02 Jun 2012 17:33:00 +0000

July 2012 Visa Bulletin will be first bulletin for Q4 - FY 2012. Here is the prediction for July 2012 Visa Bulletin. We should see following movements in each category as long as USCIS/DOS would use visa numbers for each category as per statutory allocations.

July 2012 Visa Bulletin Predictions

EB3- China could advance to 15 September 2005
EB3 – ROW and EB3-Mexico could advance to 08 July 2006
EB3 – Philippines could advance to 15 June 2006
EB2 for ROW, Mexico and Philippines could see cut-off date of 01 August 2011 – 01 November 2011 in coming bulletins.
EB3-India could advance to 22 September 2002.
EB2-India and EB2-China would stay ‘Unavailable’ until September 2012.

Note – Predictions are based on educated guess and is not guaranteed. Please take it with a grain of salt. EB2-ROW/Others date are determined based on discussion with attorney friend.

June 2012 Visa Bulletin Predictions - EB Category

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Sun, 29 Apr 2012 22:14:00 +0000

June 2012 Visa Bulletin will be third bulletin for Q3 - FY 2012. Here is the prediction for June 2012 Visa Bulletin. We should see following movements in each category as long as USCIS/DOS would use visa numbers for each category as per statutory allocations.

June 2012 Visa Bulletin Predictions

EB3- China could advance to 15 June 2005
EB3 – ROW, EB3-Philippines, and EB3-Mexico could advance to 22 May 2006
EB2 will be current for ROW, Mexico and Philippines at least for this quarter.
EB3-India could advance to 15 September 2002.
EB2-India and EB2-China would stay at 15^th August 2007 in June and July visa bulletin. At this point, DOS has announced that available visas for EB2 China and India have been exhausted. So far I am still hopeful of some movement in August or September visa bulletin for this category. Again, movement will be dependent on what is status of EB1 and EB2-ROW backlog at that point. Expect movement to atleast PD March 2008 or beyond in October 2012 visa bulletin.

Note – Predictions are based on educated guess and is not guaranteed. Please take it with a grain of salt.

May 2012 Visa Bulletin Predictions - EB Category

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Wed, 28 Mar 2012 00:14:00 +0000

May 2012 Visa Bulletin will be the second bulletin for Q3 - FY 2012. Here is the prediction for May 2012 Visa Bulletin. We should see following movements in each category as long as USCIS/DOS would use visa numbers for each category as per statutory allocations.

May 2012 Visa Bulletin Predictions

EB3- China could advance to 22 March 2005
EB3 – ROW, EB3-Philippines, and EB3-Mexico could advance to 22 April 2006 (Mostly 22 April 2006. It could just be in borderline for 01 May 2006 if we are lucky).
EB2 will be current for ROW, Mexico and Philippines.
EB3-India could advance to 08 September 2002.
EB2-India and EB2-China would retrogress to 15^th August 2007 in coming bulletin. Now since we have all the demand to satisfy annual quota for this fiscal year, dates will remain stagnant up to July visa bulletin. In August visa bulletin, we may see 3-4 months movement and then in September it will be March 2008, with final resting point for cut-off date at May-June 2008 or more in October-December visa bulletins. We can crunch exact numbers once next inventory data is released .i.e. in May time frame. As of now it seems that FY 2013 will take care of at least first half of 2009 or little more; FY 2014 is the year we are looking for 2010 PDs.

Note – Predictions are based on educated guess and is not guaranteed. Please take it with a grain of salt.

Adjusted EB2-India & China FY 2012 Retrogression Estimation based on I-485 Receipt Data

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Sun, 26 Feb 2012 23:25:00 +0000

Based on newly released USCIS Receipts and Approvals for Q1-FY 2012, we would like to adjust the estimation of retrogression for FY 2012 for EB2-India & China Category. This time we were fooled by USCIS January 2012 Inventory which in reality is nothing but a muck of mislaid data. Either USCIS inventory was incomplete in terms of November 2011 and December 2011 to an error of greater than 50% or currently released document has some error. Most likely at this point January Inventory looks incomplete not only with respect to December 2011 visa bulletin movement data but to great extent to November 2011 data. In any case, at this time we feel dejected to outline that we are back to square-one where we started for FY 2012. If any of this is accurate to 80-90%, we are talking about severe retrogression.

Visa Usage or Approvals from the released data
Currently released data suggests that atleast 31,541 visas were used in Q1-FY 2012. This looks reasonable based on estimated visa use that was published few months ago.

Estimated EB2-IC visa use upto Q1-FY 2012 is 8000+4805 (PWMB). Also for EB3 category at least 15% or more visa is used by Consular Processed (CP) cases, so monthly visa use is 0.85*3367 = 2861 per month at USCIS. For 3 months it becomes, 2831*3 = 8,493. EB4 could have used 2495 or more in Q1 and EB5 has used 2864 based on released data. Estimated from January Inventory, EB1 and EB2-ROW-M-P use was around 3,580 and 2321 respectively.

Visa use in Q1-FY2012 = 3580 + 8000+ 4805 + 2321+ 8493 + 2495 + 2864 = 32,558 (approx 31,541)

EB2-IC Receipts from the released data
Most disturbing and contradicting to January Inventory data is the total EB category receipts issued in Q1-FY 2012. YTY we had seen that total I-485 EB Receipts at TSC and NSC were 27% - 33% of total I-485 receipts at these service centers. Well current data suggests that when EB2-IC cut-off dates were moved so much in last 6 bulletins, this is no longer true. EB category receipts due to such huge movement now estimates as large as 50%-60% of total I-485 receipts at these centers.

Based on EB receipts for each month as per currently released data, and current trackitt trend for filings in each month for Q1-FY 2012, EB2-India & China demand estimate has almost doubled than what was estimated earlier just because of I-485 EB receipts now representing 50%-60% of total receipts and not 27%-33% anymore. Tabulated results is based on taking EB2-IC trackitt data as it is and assuming EB1 and EB2-ROW-M-P representation is 1/4th of that of EB2-IC on trackitt. See this articl e for reference on how this is calculated.

EB1 and EB2-ROW-M-P estimation above jives well with new applications estimated from January Inventory. Estimation from January 2012 Inventory falls atleast 20% low again because of incompleteness.

One fallacy to above method is that we have not considered any EB3 to EB2 Porting and any new receipts for EB4 and EB5. Based on inventory EB3 to EB2 Porting is not more than 1800, and EB4 & EB5 demand is around 622+223 = 845. Assuming incompleteness of inventory, if we increase this number by 50% more, it comes out to be 845*1.5 = 1267. Though good chunk of EB4 and EB5 cases are CP cases we can ignore it at this point and assume all 1267 were filed at USCIS. Out of new EB2-IC cases, there will be few PWMBs too, which account for these receipts. Such number should be part of October receipts. Considering all these errors, EB2-IC demand for Q1-FY2012 comes out to be 23,787 - 1800 - 1267 = 20720. This is atleast 8000-9000 higher than 11,563 what we estimated from January Inventory. This tells us that January Inventory is totally bogus with respect to EB2-IC demand and should be ignored. Again if these are not EB2-IC numbers then any reduction in here should be accounted by increase in EB1, EB2-ROW, EB4 or EB5 demand, which by all means suggest less contributed spillover to EB2-IC. Based on this March 2008 PD total demand for this year becomes

EB2-IC demand March 2008 = 8000+ 20,720 + 1,800 = 30,520

Now based on current EB1 and EB2-ROW demand, we are estimating that spillover for this year can be as high as 35,500 and as low as 28,800. So it still means June-July 2008 PD can receive green card this FY 2012. My personal opinion is that due to long processing time at USCIS, DOS may not have to retrogress dates all the way to June-July 2008 and then move them again in FY 2013.So this means we can still see October 2008 PD to be current for the remaning fiscal year. USCIS may approve cases more likely on basis of PD than receipt date. EB1 demand will be a gate keeper for this year based on USCIS efforts to reduce this huge inventory. EB2-ROW-M-P demand may yield more spillover compared to last year.

Summary

USCIS inventory was not indicative of real EB2-IC demand. We were fooled by those low numbers. Current Receipt data suggests that EB2-IC demand upto March 2008 PD is capable to use 30,520 visa numbers.

PD June-July 2008 should expect Green Card this year with dates still hovering around October 2008 - November 2008 incase DOS decides to avoid severe retrogression and moving dates again in FY 2013.

PERM to Inventory conversion factor in our Prediction for EB2 Category for FY 2012 is NOT total PERM to Inventory factor but is EB2-IC PERM to Inventory Factor from this link.

Based on currently released new receipts data, PERM to Inventory Conversion Factor for realistic case is 1.40 upto March 2008. OR Total PERM to I-485 Inventory Factor of 1.00. Going forward this number can fall down to 1.10-1.20 for PD 2008 to PD 2009.

Spillover including annual quota expected for this year is 28,800 - 35,000

Based on this movement for EB2-IC in April 2012 is a concern. Really it is time to stall or retrogress at this point. If any date movement may happen next month, it would be mere luck. All those current should file their applications as soon as they can.

April 2012 Visa Bulletin Predictions - EB Category

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Tue, 21 Feb 2012 01:03:00 +0000

April 2012 Visa Bulletin will be the first bulletin for Q3 - FY 2012. Here is the prediction for April 2012 Visa Bulletin. We should see following movements in each category as long as USCIS/DOS would use visa numbers for each category as per statutory allocations.

April 2012 Visa Bulletin Predictions

EB3- China could advance to 08 February 2005
EB3 – ROW, EB3-Philippines, and EB3-Mexico could advance to 08 April 2006.
EB2 will be current for ROW, Mexico and Philippines.
EB3-India could advance to 01 September 2002.
EB2-India and EB2-China could see 0 months - 3.5 months movement in coming bulletin. Movement in coming months solely depends on how demand for last two visa bulletin. has picked up so far. If January and February bulletin demand for EB2-IC has bloomed as we expected (i.e. based on trackitt trend), then we may not see any substantial movement. Any withered demand means few months movement for EB2-IC.

At this time based on current demand, everyone with PD until October-November 2008 should feel good about receiving green card this fiscal year. This is all based on receiving 30K spillover including annual quota from EB1, EB2-ROW and EB5, which looks plausible. based on current demand. Dates might not retrogress in this bulletin. We may expect stall or retrogression in May-June VB.

Note – Predictions are based on educated guess and is not guaranteed. Please take it with a grain of salt.

Visa Bulletin: March 2012

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Thu, 16 Feb 2012 18:08:00 +0000

March 2012 Visa Bulletin for the FY 2012 was released few days ago. March visa bulletin brought 4 months movement for the EB-2 China and EB-2 India categories, thus moving it to the most favorable cut-off dates ever. EB3 categories advanced as expected with EB3-ROW-M-P moving by 3 weeks. EB3-India and China moved as expected by1 week and 4 weeks. All other categories are current. Family Based category saw some movement.

Employment-Based (EB)
Below is a summary of the March 2012 Visa Bulletin with respect to employment-based petitions:

EB-1 remains current across the board.
EB-2 remains current for EB-2 ROW, Mexico and Philippines. EB-2 India and EB-2 China both move forward by four (4) months to May 1, 2010.
EB-3 ROW, EB-3 Mexico and EB-3 Philippines move forward by only three (3) weeks to March 15, 2006, EB-3 China moves forward by one (1) month to January 1, 2005, while EB-3 India moves forward by only one (1) week to August 22, 2002.
The “other worker” category remains unchanged (again) at April 22, 2003 for China. It moves forward by three (3) weeks for ROW, Mexico and Philippines to March 15, 2006. It also moves forward by one (1) week for India to August 22, 2002.

Family-Based (FB)

Below is a summary of the March 2012 Visa Bulletin with respect to family-based petitions:

FB-1 moves forward (again, for sixth consecutive month). FB-1 ROW, China and India all move forward by five (5) weeks to February 1, 2005. FB-1 Mexico moves forward by one (1) week to May 1, 1993 and FB-1 Philippines moves forward by one (1) month to June 22, 1997.
FB-2A moves forward by six (6) weeks to July 22, 2009 for ROW, China, India, and Philippines. FB-2A Mexico moves forward by seven (7) weeks to July 1, 2009.
FB-2B ROW, China and India move forward by one (1) month to November 15, 2003. FB-2B Mexico remains unchanged at December 1, 1992. FB-2B Philippines moves forward by five (5) weeks to December 8, 2001.

VISA AVAILABILITY IN THE COMING MONTHS

EB Categories
No Notes

FB Categories

No Notes

Demand Data

EB2-India & China Movement

It is obvious that EB2-India & China are reaching their high mark point for this year. Currently released inventory suggests that incoming demand for EB2-IC is low compared to what was anticipated based on PERM data. There is apparently lot of multiple PERM filings either to port to EB2,because of job changes, due to more than one filing per family or abandonment of cases during 2008 and 2009. We know that inventory has not covered entire demand for December and January Visa Bulletin movement, and it should be assumed complete only regard to demand upto November visa bulletin. We believe that current movement upto March Visa Bulletin would be sufficient for current year's demand. Please see where demand is heading for current fiscal year based on trackitt demand.

Ratio of representation for EB2-IC on trackitt to inventory number suggests that one trackitt case will convert into 8.6 cases in I-485 inventory. This is based on numbers that were seen in new inventory up to Oct-November visa movement i.e. 5,603. This when compared to trackitt corresponds to 651 cases. Ratio of these two numbers is 8.6. If we will use same ratio for movements upto February visa bulletin, i.e. PD 01 Jan 2010, demand comes upto 33,220. This number corresponds to PERM to Inventory factor of 0.42. This is very low multiple PERM factor but so far is looking very plausible. I will not be surprised if retrogression that will happen in May-June 2012 will be minimum.

YTY trackitt ratio had usually held upto 13 vs 8.6; using ratio of 13 gives us PERM to Inventory factor of 0.65. So in any case when retrogression will happen, it will not go beyond Priority Date November 2008. But how things are looking so far, retrogression may not happen or if will happen will only be until later months of 2009. Since past month USCIS approval rate has picked up. If rate will drop then we might not even see any retrogression. It is important that USCIS should use visa numbers at consistent rate. Any slack over there means Consular cases are only hope. Of course, retrogression majorly also depends upon how EB1 and EB2-ROW approvals will pick up with time and if we can still receive spillover of 30K. Anything less than this means more retrogression. I believe now it is the right time to divert our focus more towards EB1, EB2-ROW and EB5 demand.

EB2-IC is now at a point where it may stall or just move by two months at most in April 2012. May 2012 should expect stall and worst to worst case little retrogression. Any one with PD before November 2008 should feel confident about receiving green card this year.

EB3-ROW-M-P Movement

EB3-ROW-M-P movement based on demand data is 2350 visa numbers worth month to month. We need 32,150 visa numbers from today to cross PD to January 2007. Constantly around 1200-1600 new cases are added to the inventory month to month. At current rate, it will take 12 months to cross January 2007, which means for FY 2012, PD cut -off date may only reach around 08 August 2006. Interesting thing to note is that EB3-ROW demand is in 18000 vs EB3-P demand which 11,000. EB3-P demand is really slowing down movement for EB3-ROW.

EB3-India &China Movement

EB3-India is currently moving as expected. There is some eventual EB3 to EB2 porting going on at rate of 250 cases per month based on demand data. If this will continue then we can again see some rapid movement for EB3-I in later part of the year, especially in August-September 2012. EB3-China is moving very well with at least 4-6 weeks movement each month. We expect this movement to continue for rest of the year.

Prediction for EB2 Category for FY 2012 - Employment Based Green Card

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Mon, 06 Feb 2012 06:03:00 +0000

Here is the Prediction for EB2 Category cutoff date retrogression for Fiscal Year 2012. Basis for this prediction is simple calculations (see below) which is done based on available data i.e. PERM data published by DOL, I-485 Inventory data, latest trend on Trackitt for EB1 & EB2 cases and other published data by USCIS. Demand data for each dependent category is predicted and explained in calculations below. This data is further used to calculate spillover that would be available for EB2 category. Retrogression is estimated based on visa allotment available each year for each country and total spillover that is expected in FY 2012. In each case, Optimistic, Realistic and Worst-Case scenario is estimated.

Based on newly released USCIS Receipts and Approvals for Q1-FY 2012, we would like to adjust the estimation of retrogression for FY 2012 for EB2-India & China Category. See this article for detail.

Summary of article

USCIS inventory was not indicative of real EB2-IC demand. We were fooled by those low numbers. Current Receipt data suggests that EB2-IC demand upto March 2008 PD is capable to use 30,520 visa numbers.

PD June-July 2008 should expect Green Card this year with dates still hovering around October 2008 - November 2008 incase DOS decides to avoid severe retrogression and moving dates again in FY 2013.

PERM to Inventory conversion factor in our Prediction for EB2 Category for FY 2012 is NOT total PERM to Inventory factor but is EB2-IC PERM to Inventory Factor from this link.

Based on currently released new receipts data, PERM to Inventory Conversion Factor for realistic case is 1.40 upto March 2008. OR Total PERM to I-485 Inventory Factor of 1.00. Going forward this number can fall down to 1.10-1.20 for PD 2008 to PD 2009.

Spillover expected for this year is 28,800 - 35,000

Based on this movement for EB2-IC in April 2012 is a concern. Really it is time to stall or retrogress at this point. If any date movement may happen next month, it would be mere luck. All those current should file their applications as soon as they can.

EB2-IC PERM to Inventory factor is a User ENTERED' field and can be changed accordingly.

You can also play with EB1, EB2-ROW-M-P, EB4 and EB5 demand to get your own estimate. Please read this article to estimate their respective demand.

Estimation on Retrogression - Last Updated - 26 February 2012

We do not expect to achieve any spillover from Family-Based category.

Detailed analysis on Visa Demand data for each category could be seen below in the calculations.

You can enter porting and visa demand for each category in 'User ENTERED' box for your Priority date, and see if your PD would be current with those assumptions.

This Prediction will be updated as and when more data is published - Last Updated 26 February 2012

Notes

Understanding Spillover

Spill Across (SA): It is a horizontal reallocation of visas within a category. (Unused number from EB2 ROW will be allotted to EB2 -India and China)

Fall Down (FD) : It is the vertical reallocation of visas between categories (eg: unused numbers from eb1 go to eb2....) Unused visa numbers in a higher preference level can "fall-down" to lower preference categories. For example, excess EB1 numbers can "fall-down" to EB2.

Fall Up (FU): Unused visa numbers in EB4 and EB5 can "fall-up" to EB1 then to EB2

EB2 - India-China Allocation (IC) - Visa numbers allotment to India and China EB2-category. This is 2,800 for each country or total 5,600.

How spillover works?

Unused EB4 and EB5 => EB1 => Unused EB1 => EB2 ROW => EB2 Retrogressed

Visa Allocation available each year

EB1 - 40,000

EB2 -ROW-P-M - 34,400

EB2-IC - 5,600

EB4 - 9,940

EB5 - 9,940

Calculations

January 2012 I-485 Pending Inventory - EB Category Visa Use

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Mon, 06 Feb 2012 04:51:00 +0000

USCIS released I-485 pending inventory upto 12 January 2012. Please note this inventory is only for Service Centers and Field Offices, and does not contain consular processing cases. Dependents are included. Here is a summary of the I-485 inventory when compared to October 2011 Inventory. This inventory is used to estimate the visa use during Q1 of FY 2012 and Projected Demand for FY 2012.Please note that one fallacy to using inventory to estimate demand is that it will not consider cases approved in less than 90 days.

EB1 demand : In general, EB1 is highly backlogged with atleast 15,583 applications still pending at Service Centers. Although this number looks big at first glance please do not worry. This is just a backlog that USCIS will need to clear going forward. Rate of new application filings is very low and we can estimate at least 12,000 or more spillover from this category at current rate. This may change with time. It all depends how much USCIS will like to reduce it's inventory when crossing into FY 2013. Generally such number is around 8,000 year-to-year, and we have used this number to estimate our projected EB1 demand for FY 2012.

EB2-ROW-M-P demand - This category demand is little surprising at first. I am not sure if new demand is so low but we should remember that other significant demand for this category also comes from consular processed cases. Such demand is usually around 15%. Estimated Demand shown is only for USCIS and Field Offices. Usually year to year inventory for this category ends around 8,000 -10,000. We assumed 8,000 in our calculations.

If we will add 15% to the estimated demand, we can say that estimated FY 2012 EB2-ROW-M-P demand is around 1.15 * 22,379 = 25,735. From EB2-ROW-M-P, we can expect spillover around 34,200 - 25,735 = 8,465 or more

EB3-ROW-M-P demand - Visa use for for EB3-ROW-M-P is estimated from October 2011 to January 2012 inventory. Please see below.

One thing to note here is that only 5,042 visa numbers were used by EB3-ROW-M-P at USCIS. Total visa number available for 3 months is around 8,682. Remaining 3,640 were used by consulates abroad. This demand is around 40% for CP cases.We are still marching towards 08 August 2006 for this category.

EB2-IC demand - This section of the article will only cover EB2-India and China demand till PD July 31st, 2007. This demand is all inclusive of visa numbers that are/will be used upto this PD for current fiscal year (FY 2012). Demand from October 2011-January 2012 inventory estimates visa number used until Q1, cases still waiting for visa numbers and new EB3 to EB2 porting cases. Remaining demand after PD July 2007 is covered in "Predictions for EB2-India & China FY 2012".

Just based on inventory it seems that only 7,795 visa numbers were used in Q1-FY 2012. Total PWMB numbers are also very less compared to what we initially thought. PWMBs includes all PDs from May 2006- July 2007 (June VB-November VB) that are still pending since October 2011 inventory. Visa use for such cases will come from this year's quota. These 14,430 demand will be limiting factor for current year cut-off date on retrogression. Retrogression will be estimated is next article.

EB3- India - Inventory for EB3-India compared to last fiscal year reduced by 4884 (2803 annual limit + 2081 estimated porting and/or case abandonment upto January 2003). Minimum movement around 08 November 2002 is expected. Movement can be little more if more folks from November-December 2002 will port for this year.

EB4- demand - Last year, EB4 demand was high or at par, and hence no spillover was received from this category. For this year also we may assume that no spillover will be received.

EB5- demand - EB5 demand is similar level as last year and may yield around 3000-4000 unused visa numbers if similar demand is seen in FY 2012.

March 2012 Visa Bulletin Predictions - EB Category

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Wed, 25 Jan 2012 01:45:00 +0000

March 2012 Visa Bulletin will be the third bulletin for Q2 - FY 2012. Here is the prediction for March 2012 Visa Bulletin. We should see following movements in each category as long as USCIS/DOS would use visa numbers for each category as per statutory allocations.

March 2012 Visa Bulletin Predictions

EB3- China could advance to 22 December 2004
EB3 – ROW, EB3-Philippines, and EB3-Mexico could advance to 15 March 2006. EB3-ROW-M-P is still marching towards 8th August 2006 for current FY 2012.
EB2 will be current for ROW, Mexico and Philippines.
EB3-India could advance to 01 September 2002.
EB2-India and EB2-China could see 2 months- 6 months movement in coming bulletin. This may be last movement before cut-off date will stall until May Visa Bulletin. Dates may retrogress in May-June visa bulletin. Current data suggests retrogression will be reasonable around October 2008 or later. This may change with sudden increase in demand during later part of the year. Less retrogression may mean some rapid movement into late 2010 and early 2011 in FY 2013.

At this time, everyone filed in November-December 2011 should expect GC within USCIS suggested processing times. October 2011 applicants have already started seeing approvals.

Note – Predictions are based on educated guess and is not guaranteed. Please take it with a grain of salt.

EB Category FY 2012 Demand Upto January 2012 & Visa-Use Budget

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Tue, 24 Jan 2012 03:01:00 +0000

As per recently released USCIS Dashboard data on I-485 Receipts, here is the estimation of demand for each category for the month of Novemberr 2011. Please see this article to understand how to read this table. Based on past experience, usually 2x or 3x representation of EB2-IC on trackitt is fair estimation.

Visa Use Budget and Current EB category demand

From the available data, please see total EB category demand for visas upto January 2012 Visa Bulletin. We used the available data also to estimate Visa-use Budget upto January 2012.

Reference

Rollover Demand - See this articl e

October Demand - See this article

Please note that December and January Demand is calculated from trackitt using factor of 13. This is still an estimation. January 2012 demand is prorated from current data based on 31 days.

Visa use is calculated based on numbers that are used upto today. Please add all the numbers that are circled in red to estimate current visa use.

Visa use upto January 2012 = 6461 + 8000 + 4805 + 8012 + 1131 + 13468 = 41,877

Please note EB1 use looks high for this quarter only because of high rollover from previous year. If current trend continues then we can expect some more spillover from EB1. This may be the reason that Mr O. is quoting less demand for EB1. We would need to see if trackitt trend will shift due to more new EB1 filings as year progresses.. EB2-ROW demand does not make sense based on trackitt data. We will like to see more PERM data for Q1 FY 2012 to make this conclusion. Please note that we need more 60K demand from today to use EB annual quota completely. This is based on assumption that EB4 and EB5 may not yield much spillover. Low EB2-ROW consumption could be accounted to the delays in PERM processing. This may pick up with time.

If any of the trends for EB1 and EB2-ROW is true and will continue like this for few more months, retrogression is not possible until summer. Even if retrogression will happen in such case, I doubt it will go anywhere in late 2008 or may even stall at PD 2009. This looks too good to be true but for now this scenario cannot be discarded. Surprising data that unfolded due to trackitt trend is an eye-opener. Lets watch inventory and I-485 filing receipts for few more months. So far things looks good for EB2-IC (that means less retrogression).

Visa Bulletin - February 2012

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Tue, 10 Jan 2012 03:00:00 +0000

February 2012 Visa Bulletin for the FY 2012 was released yesterday. February visa bulletin brought 12 months remarkable movement for the EB-2 China and EB-2 India categories, thus moving it to the most favorable cut-off dates ever. EB3 categories advanced as expected with EB3-ROW-M-P moving by 3 weeks. EB3-India and China moved as expected by 2 weeks and 6 weeks. All other categories are current. Family Based category saw some movement.

Employment-Based (EB)
Below is a summary of the February 2012 Visa Bulletin with respect to employment-based petitions:

EB-1 remains current across the board.
EB-2 remains current for EB-2 ROW, Mexico and Philippines. EB-2 India and EB-2 China both move forward by twelve (12) months to January 1, 2010.
EB-3 ROW, EB-3 Mexico and EB-3 Philippines move forward by only three (3) weeks to February 22, 2006, EB-3 China moves forward by six (6) weeks to December 1, 2004, while EB-3 India moves forward by only one (1) week to August 15, 2002.
The “other worker” category remains unchanged (again) at April 22, 2003 for China. It moves forward by three (3) weeks for ROW, Mexico and Philippines to February 22, 2006. It also moves forward by two (2) weeks for India to August 15, 2002.

Family-Based (FB)

Below is a summary of the February 2012 Visa Bulletin with respect to family-based petitions:

FB-1 moves forward (again, for fifth consecutive month). FB-1 ROW, China and India all move forward by nine (9) weeks to December 22, 2004. FB-1 Mexico moves forward by one (1) week to April 22, 1993 and FB-1 Philippines moves forward by five (5) weeks to May 22, 1997.
FB-2A moves forward by six (6) weeks to June 8, 2009 for ROW, China, India, and Philippines. FB-2A Mexico moves forward by six (6) weeks to May 8, 2009.
FB-2B ROW, China and India move forward by five (5) weeks to October 15, 2003. FB-2B Mexico remains unchanged at December 1, 1992. FB-2B Philippines moves forward by two (2) months to November 1, 2001.

VISA AVAILABILITY IN THE COMING MONTHS

EB Categories

Employment First: Current

Employment Second:

China and India: Reports from U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) indicate that the rate of new filings for adjustment of status in recent months has been extremely low. This fact has required the continued rapid forward movement of the cut-off date, in an attempt to generate demand and maximize number use under the annual limit. Once the level of new filings or USCIS processing increases significantly, it will be necessary to slow or stop the movement of the cut-off. Readers are once again advised that an eventual need to retrogress the cut-off date is also a distinct possibility.

Employment Third:
Worldwide: up to one month
China: up to one month
India: up to two weeks
Mexico: up to one month
Philippines: up to one month

Employment Fourth: Current

Employment Fifth: Current

Please be advised that the above ranges are only estimates for what could happen during each of the next few months based on current applicant demand patterns. The determination of the actual monthly cut-off dates is subject to fluctuations in applicant demand which can occur at any time. Those categories with a “Current” projection will remain so for the foreseeable future.

FB Categories

Worldwide dates:
F1: three to five weeks
F2A: one to two months
F2B: three to four weeks
F3: one to three weeks
F4: up to one month

Demand Data

EB2-India & China Movement

Statement in Visa bulletin clearly tells that so far (i.e. 6th January 2012) upto third business day of January visa bulletin, rate of filings is very low and hence in order to ensure that enough demand is available for USCIS to process during spillover season for FY 2012, dates had moved rapidly.

Few things that can inferred from above statement is that filing upto December Visa Bulletin from October 2011 are very low than what DOS wants as an inventory for FY 2012. We initially expected cases upto December bulletin cut-off date to be around 16000 but current trackitt trend is pointing towards 9412 applications. (2200 I-485 filings from October Receipt Data and 166 trackitt applications gives factor of 13. From October-December 2011, trackitt has 724 pending cases, which converts into 724*13 = 9412 cases). This is too early to suggest that filings are low but we will continue to monitor I-485 Receipt data and trackitt trend for next few days.

DOS bulletin clearly mentions that once the level of new filings or USCIS processing increases significantly, it will be necessary to slow or stop the movement of the cut-off. So we can be rest assured that atleast for the next visa bulletin there will be no retrogression. Worst case it will stall. Presently we feel dates will move ahead for next bulletin but slowly. Expected movement can be anywhere from 2-5 months. Our attorney friend also feels movement will continue until April 2012.

As per Mr. Oppenheim, "Readers are once again advised that an eventual need to retrogress the cut-off date is also a distinct possibility." That eventual need will be seen around May 2012 visa bulletin i.e. in April. 2012 Dates will retrogress at some point but level of retrogression is difficult to determine without inventory data. Retrogression beyond December 2007 is not plausible. If demand continue to stay less, then June September 2008 could be considered as a high mark point for retrogression but for now lets stick to March-June 2008 as cut-off dates for FY 2012 until we see some more inventory numbers.

It was not clear from above analysis how annual visa use scenario looks like if we consider that trackitt trend from October 2011-December 2011 is resemblance of real demand. Please see numbers below

EB2-IC rough visa use estimation for FY 2012 that can be accounted upto 31st December 2011 is

Worst case = 8000* + 4807 (PWMB) before 15 April 2007 [see previous article] + 9412 (up to Dec VB filings) = 22,219

Best case = 8000* + 3485 (PWMB) before 15 April 2007 [see previous article] + 9412 (up to Dec VB filings) = 20,897

*- Used in approving EB2-IC backlog pre July 2007, after movements for October - November 2011 VB

EB3-ROW-M-P Movement

EB3-ROW-M-P movement based on demand data is 2350 visa numbers worth month to month. We need 32,400 visa numbers from today to cross PD to January 2007. At current rate, it will take 13 months to cross January 2007, which means for FY 2012, PD cut -off date may only reach around 22nd July 2006.

EB3-India & China Movement

EB2-India & China I-140 Demand (Yearly) based on DHS Released Report

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Sat, 31 Dec 2011 20:40:00 +0000

DHS on 29th December 2011 released a Citizenship and Immigration Services Ombudsman's recommendation to improve the quality in Extraordinary Ability and Other Employment based petition adjudication document (thank you to our reader who pointed to this release) - http://www.dhs.gov/xlibrary/assets/cisomb-recommendation_extraordinary_ability_petitions.pdf.

Some of the important relevant information can be found on Page 6 of the document which has plots for I-140 EB1 and EB-2 adjudications, including receipts and approvals for the Texas (TSC) and Nebraska (NSC) Service Centers. Report suggests that USCIS has experienced a slight downturn in EB-1 and EB-2 filings over the past five years for both EB-1 and EB-2 (note report does not include National Interest Waiver petitions), with approval and denial rates remaining consistent.

Key point to note here are -

EB1-A and EB1-B has high rate of denial rate, around 40% to 60% respectively.
EB2 I-140 approval rate is close to 100%
Respective I-140 filings for each fiscal year 2008, 2009, 2010 and 2011.
EB1 majority demand comes from EB1-C and not from EB1-A and EB1-B. Those filings do not look enormous.

Based on I-140 receipt data and 100% approval rate for EB2 petition, we tried to deduce some I-140 demand for PD 2008, 2009 and 2010.

EB2-India & China I-140 Demand based on released data

First of all we started after taking into account the PERMs that were approved for the FY 2008, FY 2009 and FY 2010.

Table I

We know from past analysis that usual break down of PERMs are 65%-35% for EB2-EB3 for India and China, and 50% for EB2-ROW-M-P. Based on this assumption and 100% approval rate, total I-140 demand for PERMs filed each fiscal year as follow.

Table II

If we now compare this data with recently released DHS document -http://www.dhs.gov/xlibrary/assets/cisomb-recommendation_extraordinary_ability_petitions.pdf. ; then I-140 Receipt numbers come very close to that suggested in above table. Approvals per released DHS document is as follow:

Table III

Reason for difference in two numbers can be accounted based on

First of all data is based on PERM approvals and some of demand from past fiscal year will roll-over into current fiscal year I-140 demand due to time lag between approval of PERM and filing of I-140s
Our assumption of 65% and 50% is flat and there may be a difference month to month.
Please note NIW applicants do not have to file PERM and hence that difference in negated here.

In addition to above numbers we should remember that lot of PERM cases that were filed with PD 2008 and PD 2009 were audited and were later approved in FY 2011. Few cases were approved in FY 2010 but we will neglect it for time being. If we will look at the EB2-IC and EB2-ROW-M-P breakup for FY 2011, we can see demand from PD 2008 and PD 2009 that will come from approvals in FY 2011.

This data comes from these articles
a) FY 2011 Q1-Q2 PERM data
b) FY 2011 Q3 PERM Approvals
c) FY 2011 Q4 PERM Approvals

Table IV

Please note that from above table it is difficult to deduce EB2 I-140 Receipts of 39000 reported in DHS document. Our estimation only shows 21,034 receipts. This is still a mystery to us.

EB2-India & China demand based on Priority Date
To calculate this for now we can neglect the difference that we see in DHS I-140 Receipts data (Table II) and I-140 demand data from PERM approvals (Table III), then we can roughly estimate total EB2-IC I-140 demand for each fiscal year just by using Table II. In order to capture FY 2011 approvals for old priority dates, we will add EB2-IC demand for each fiscal year to respective approvals in FY 2011. Based on above calculations, estimate for EB2-IC I-140 demand is (in red)

Table V

Some key points to note

I-140 Receipt demand will always lag PERM Approval times.
Difference between 29000 - 27588 = 1412 from Table II and Table III can account for some demand before October 2007.
It is assumed that most of the cases for certain priority date is approved in same fiscal year, so total demand upto end of FY 2010 will be same but real numbers for each PD may be off depending upon PERM approval time within that fiscal year.
These calculations do not consider any abandon cases due to individuals leaving country, getting lay-offed or re-filing due to long audit processing time, multiple PERM factors or double filings within a family. You can assume anything from 65%-85% for this as a multiple PERM factor.
This data does not consider any EB3-EB2 portings.
You can multiply this demand by 2.0 to 2.25 based on dependent factor to get estimate of I-485 demand.

EB2-India & China I-485 demand based on Priority Date

To above numbers you can add 8000 visa numbers that was approved for this fiscal year. Also add demand from August 2007-September 2007 plus 4000-5000 PWMBs overall and then based on your estimation of spillover calculate cut-off date on retrogression.

My take will be the option Multiple PERM factor of 75%.
EB2-IC demand , August-September 2007 from PERM data = 4,000
All PWMBs =                                                                         4,500
EB2-IC Approvals for backlogged cases =                                8,000
Demand until Sep 2008 =                                                         25,233
__________________________________________________________

Total I-485 Demand upto September 2008 = 41,733

Spillover + annual limit expected at most can be around 28,000

Cut-off Dates for this year can hover around March-June 2008 after retrogression for the best scenario.

PERM Approvals : Q4 FY 2011

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Thu, 29 Dec 2011 20:31:00 +0000

Here is a break down of PERM data (certified and certified_expired only) that was processed each month for FY 2011 Q4. Data has been broken down among different PDs that were approved per month in Q4 FY 2011. Total 16,937 PERMs were approved in Q4- FY 2011. In addition to this, see PERM database based on PD that is updated until FY 2011.

In addition, please see distribution of PERM approvals segregated based on country of chargeability and category. Most of the PERMs filed in FY 2011- Q4 belonged to India and ROW. It is becoming apparent that with passing time, most of the individuals are filing their cases in EB2 category.

Most importantly it should be noted that the EB2-ROW-M-P demand is progressing towards around 4000 PERMs per quarter, which if continued through out the year may convert into 4000*2*4 Qtr = 32000 I-485 applications for the fiscal year. This means spillover expected from EB2-ROW-M-P at this rate is 3000-7000 depending upon I-485 denial rate of 0%-15%.

I-485 Primary & Secondary Evidence - Country Specific for USCIS Adjudicators

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Fri, 23 Dec 2011 03:39:00 +0000

Commonly asked question is what to do when primary evidence of birth, marriage, divorce etc is not available. Here is the country specific I-485 Required documents for (AOS) or (CP). Immigration officers or Adjudicators are asked to refer to the list below before making any decision on RFE or NOID in case primary evidence is not submitted or established. Please select your country from the drop-down list to see specific secondary evidence and documents.

Burden of Proof and Standard of Proof

The burden is on the petitioner to establish that he or she is eligible for the benefit sought. This means that if an alien seeking a benefit has not shown eligibility, the application should be denied. The government is not called upon to make any showing of ineligibility until the alien has first shown that he is eligible. You may contrast this in your mind with a criminal case or with a removal hearing in which the government must first prove its case.

Evidential Standards

Because the strict rules of evidence used in judicial proceedings do not apply in administrative proceedings, a wide range of oral or documentary evidence may be used in a visa petition proceeding or other immigration benefit application proceeding. A copy of a public record (birth certificate, marriage or divorce certificates, adoption decrees, and similar documents) is admissible if the person having custody over the original records has certified the copy. For example, a copy of a divorce decree is admissible if the clerk of the court has certified the copy. A regulation, provides that a certified copy of a foreign public record (other than a Canadian record) should also be authenticated by a U.S. Foreign Service officer or, if the country is a party to the Hague Convention on abolition of legalization requirements for foreign public records, by a higher-level official of the foreign country.

Best Evidence Rule

In adjudicating a petition or application for a benefit, immigration officer will often deal with evidence and facts which are of a documentary nature, such as marriage dates, dates of birth, death, divorce, criminal records, school records, etc. This often brings into play what is known as the "best evidence rule.” While the best evidence rule is not strictly applicable in an administrative proceeding, IOs should adhere to it as closely as they can. The rule states that where the contents of a document are at issue in a case, the document itself must be introduced rather than secondary evidence as to its content.

Primary and Secondary Evidence

Closely related to the best evidence rule is the concept of primary and secondary evidence. Primary evidence is evidence which on its face proves a fact. For example, the divorce certificate is primary evidence of a divorce. Secondary evidence is evidence which makes it more likely that the fact sought to be proven by the primary evidence is true, but cannot do so on its own face, without any external reference. In the above example, church records showing that an individual was divorced at a certain time would be secondary evidence of the divorce.

Adjudicators will often encounter situations in which primary evidence is unavailable. This gives rise to a presumption of ineligibility , which is the applicant or petitioner’s burden to overcome. A petitioner or applicant cannot simply assert that the primary evidence does not exist. The absence of a primary record, instead, must be proven either:

By a written statement from the appropriate issuing authority attesting to the fact that no record exists or can be located, or that the record sought was part of some segment of records which were lost or destroyed; or
By evidence (such as an affidavit) "that repeated good faith attempts were made to obtain the required document or record."

To check country-specific information on availability of various foreign documents see below drop-down menu that is used by Immigration Officers. If this Appendix shows that a particular record is generally not available in a particular country, USCIS may accept secondary evidence without requiring the written statement from the issuing authority.

COUNTRY SPECIFIC REQUIRED DOCUMENTS

General List of Commonly Required Documents

Birth Certificates

You (and any family members immigrating with you to the United States) must obtain an original birth certificate issued by the official custodian of birth records in your country of birth, showing your date of birth, place of birth, and parentage.

The certificate must contain the:

Your date of birth
Your place of birth
Names of both parents
Indication by the appropriate authority that it is an extract from the official records

Unobtainable birth certificates

If your birth record is not obtainable for any reason, a certified statement must be obtained from the appropriate government authority explaining why your birth record is unavailable. You must also submit secondary evidence such as:

A baptismal certificate that contains the date and place of birth, as well as both parents names (providing the baptism took place shortly after birth)
An adoption decree for an adopted child
An affidavit from a close relative, preferably your mother, stating the date and place of birth, both parents names, and your mother’s maiden name.

Note: An affidavit executed before an official authorized to take oaths or affirmations must also be provided.

SAMPLE AFFIDAVIT

AFFIDAVIT BY Mr. xxxxxx (FATHER NAME) & Mrs.xxxxxxx (MOTHER NAME)

Re: [YOUR FULL NAME]

I, Mr. [FATHER FULL NAME] & Mrs. [MOTHER FULL NAME], here by depose and say:

1. Our full and complete address is xxxxxxxxxxx

2. That I, FATHER'S FULL NAME Age XXX, was born on MM/DD/YYY in the town/city of xxxxxxxx

3. That I, MOTHER'S FULL NAME Age XXX, was born on MM/DD?/YYY in the town/city of xxxxxxxx

4. We got married on MM/DDYYY in the city of XXXXXX, COUNTRY.

5. We, FATHER'S & MOTHER'S FULL NAME are parents of the following children:

a. YOUR FULL NAME born on MM/DD/YY; and

b. YOUR SIBLINGS NAME born on MM/DD/YYYY

6. [YOUR FULL NAME] was born in CITY, STATE, COUNTRY

7. This affidavit is being submitted because official full name of [YOUR FULL NAME] was not [mentioned] OR [registered] OR [OTHER REASON] in the birth certificate at the time of birth. [His/Her] Full Name is [YOUR FULL NAME] /OR/ [YOUR FULL NAME] birth was not registered because [reason].

I declare under penalty of perjury, that the foregoing is a true and correct statement.

_________________________
FATHER NAME and signature

_________________________
MOTHER NAME and signature

More specific information for each country can be seen after selecting your country above.

Marriage Certificates

Who needs to submit marriage certificates?
If you are married, you must obtain an original marriage certificate, or a certified copy, bearing the appropriate seal or stamp of the issuing authority.

Note: Marriage certificates from certain countries are unavailable. More specific information for each country can be seen after selecting your country above.

Court and Prison Records

If you were convicted of a crime, you must obtain a certified copy of each court record and prison record, regardless of the fact that you may have subsequently been granted amnesty, a pardon or other act of clemency.
Court records should include:

Complete information about the circumstances of the crime
The disposition of the case, including sentence, fines or other penalties imposed

Marriage Termination Documentation

Who needs to submit marriage termination documentation?
If you were previously married, you must obtain evidence of the termination of EACH prior marriage. Evidence must be in the form of original documents issued by an official authority, or certified copies bearing the appropriate seal or stamp of the issuing authority, such as:

FINAL divorce decree
Death certificate
Annulment papers

Deportation Documentation

Who needs to submit deportation documents?
If you have been previously deported or removed from the United States at government expense, you must obtain Form I-212, Permission to Reapply After Deportation, from the U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Service, or from a U.S. Embassy or Consulate, and follow the instructions on that form.

Military Records

Who needs to submit military records?
If you served in the military forces of any country, you must obtain a copy of your military record.
Note: Military records from certain countries are unavailable.
More specific information for each country can be seen after selecting your country above.

Petitioner Documents

Who needs to submit petitioner documents?
If you are applying for an IR5 (Parent of a U.S. Citizen) visa, you are required to provide:

Original or certified copy of your Petitioner’s birth certificate
Original or certified copy of your Petitioner’s marriage certificate from the Petitioner’s current and all previous marriages.

If you are applying for a F4 (Brother or Sister of a U.S. Citizen) visa you are required to provide:

Original or certified copy of your Petitioners birth certificate.

Photocopy of Valid Passport Biographic Data Page

Who needs to submit a photocopy of their passport?
The applicant and each family member accompanying the applicant must submit a photocopy of the biographic data page from their respective valid passport.
More specific information for each country can be seen after selecting your country above.

Photographs

You must submit two identical color photographs. Review Photograph Requirements for size specifications and more information.

October 2011 EB Demand from I-485 Receipt Data

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Wed, 21 Dec 2011 22:17:00 +0000

As per recently released USCIS Dashboard data on I-485 Receipts, here is the estimation of demand for each category for the month of October 2011. Please see this article to understand how to read this table. Based on past experience, usually 2x or 3x representation of EB2-IC on trackitt is fair estimation.

EB2-IC rough demand estimation that can be accounted until October 2011 is

Worst case = 8000* + 4807 (PWMB) before 15 April 2007 [see previous article] + 2679 (PWMB) from 15 April 07 - 15 July 2007 = 15,486

Best case = 8000* + 3485 (PWMB) before 15 April 2007 + 2200 (PWMB) from 15 April 07 - 15 July 2007 = 13,685

*- Used in approving EB2-IC backlog, after movements for October - November 2011 VB

EB2-IC Visa Bulletin Movements FY 2012 - Is this how Mr. Oppenheim thinks?

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Mon, 19 Dec 2011 23:26:00 +0000

We looked into if there is any analytical correlation between movements that Mr. Oppenheim did last year for Family Based Category (F2A) and current movement that we saw with EB2-India and China for Employment Based Category. Is there any correlation or equation or factor that can determine how Mr. Oppenheim would think in absence of demand or visible demand in case number of filings that he is receiving or available adjudicated case cases are less? Or if we can formulate a mathematical expression that outlines his approach to move dates. That is when we started digging into this.

Edited - December 20, 2011

We started looking at the movement that Mr. Oppenheim did for Family-Based Category last year in FY 2010 and FY 2011 to see how he moved the dates and then retrogressed them once he had enough demand. Some key difference that should be noted between two categories are a) annual visas for FB category vs EB category is 260K vs. 140K. When one will reduce these numbers per category, ratio between two visa numbers would be quite similar b) For FB category demand could be easily generated in couple months as long as NVC have enough cases documentarily qualified (majority of demand in FB category comes from overseas consular posts) vs. EB category which rely mostly on USCIS to generate demand. C) Mr. Oppenheim started doing such movement for FB category in June 2010 which was still recalibrating until last fiscal year.

Mr. Oppenheim started doing similar movement of EB2-IC from October 2011. If we will assume that Mr. Oppenheim have similar thought process that he had while determining cut-off dates for FB category, then we should have seen movements as suggested in the column “EB2-IC”. But this was the not the case. Factors a) to c) could be the reason for this. As two categories have different demand and different annual visa numbers, movement could not be just purely based on similar difference. We took first two movements that we saw in the last visa bulletin to fit the best correlation to the data, and equation we received was

Recalibrated EB2-IC Movement

It should be noted that there is a correction in the equation. As forward movement will be less based on factor a) to c), even retrogression should be less than anticipated compared to FB category.

Forward Movement

EB2-IC Date:Current Bulletin = EB2-IC Date:Last Bulletin + (((F2A Movement: Current Bulletin - F2A Movement:Last Bulletin)*140000/260000) – 60 days)

Retrogression

EB2-IC Date:Current Bulletin = EB2-IC Date:Last Bulletin + (((F2A Movement: Current Bulletin - F2A Movement:Last Bulletin)*140000/260000) +60 days)

This equation closely satisfied movement that we saw for December 2011 and January 2012 Visa Bulletin. We used this data to correlate Mr. Oppenheim thought process in order to extrapolate movement for next few bulletins; as long as he will continue to have same thought process for rest of the year.

Fallacy to above method, it does not take into account any EB demand, PERM numbers and assumes similar correlation will exist for rest of the year. Personally, I would request everyone to take this lightly and do not put lot of eggs into this basket. The correlation when outputted was very interesting hence we thought of sharing it with our readers, especially when there is no logic behind current movement (as far as I can tell). It can give better perspective to this process than just going by a gut feeling.

If this will make sense, and will start panning out in next few bulletin then cut-off dates estimated by equation does not make sense from June 2012 – November 2012, I would say in case spillover is enough, dates may stick around December 2008 until June 2012 and then retrogress to September 2007 in August-September 2012 for some time. By this time most of the folks should have received green card from the filings in October-December 2011. Successively dates will move back to June 2008 in October 2013 or beyond. In all, I would not care about movement shown in later half of the table.

Note : Results here are independent of demand and were shared because they looked interesting. By no means this suggests that this is what we may see in next visa bulletins.

February 2012 Visa Bulletin Predictions - EB Category

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Mon, 19 Dec 2011 02:18:00 +0000

February 2012 Visa Bulletin will be the second bulletin for Q2 - FY 2012. Here is the prediction for February 2012 Visa Bulletin. We should see following movements in each category as long as USCIS/DOS would use visa numbers for each category as per statutory allocations.

February 2012 Visa Bulletin Predictions

EB3- China could advance to 15 November 2004
EB3 – ROW, EB3-Philippines, and EB3-Mexico could advance to 22 February 2006.
EB2 will be current for ROW, Mexico and Philippines.
EB3-India could advance to 15 August 2002.
EB2-India and EB2-China could see No movement-3 months movement in coming bulletin. It is not possible to estimate movement for EB2-IC based on available demand and calculations. Based on calculations, EB2-IC in most optimum case should provide green card up to May-June 2008 for this year; current demand would provide enough cases that can be allocated visas through EB2-IC annual limits and estimated spillover as per current trend. February 2012 movement will be solely based on DOS/USCIS’ policy to intake enough buffer demand for FY 2012 or beyond. Dates to retrogress in this bulletin seems not plausible.

At this time, our gut feeling is that movement can be as big as 3 months in February 2012 visa bulletin. This could be last intake for this fiscal year and then dates may stall until summer 2012.

Note – Predictions are based on educated guess and is not guaranteed. Please take it with a grain of salt.

Visa Bulletin : January 2012

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Sat, 10 Dec 2011 21:30:00 +0000

January 2012 Visa Bulletin for the FY 2012 was released yesterday. January visa bulletin brought 9 months movement for the EB-2 China and EB-2 India categories., thus moving it to the most favorable cur-off dates ever. EB3 categories advanced less than expected with EB3-ROW-M-P moving by 2 weeks. EB3-India and China moved as expected. All other categories are current as expected. Family Based category saw some movement.

Employment-Based (EB)
Below is a summary of the January 2012 Visa Bulletin with respect to employment-based petitions:

EB-1 remains current across the board.
EB-2 remains current for EB-2 ROW, Mexico and Philippines. EB-2 India and EB-2 China both move forward by nine and a half (9.5) months to January 1, 2009.
EB-3 ROW, EB-3 Mexico and EB-3 Philippines move forward by only two (2) weeks to February 1, 2006, EB-3 China moves forward by five (5) weeks to October 15, 2004, while EB-3 India moves forward by only one (1) week to August 8, 2002.
The “other worker” category remains unchanged (again) at April 22, 2003 for China. It moves forward by one and (1) month for ROW, Mexico and Philippines to February 1, 2006. It also moves forward by three (3) weeks for India to August 1, 2002.

Family-Based (FB)

Below is a summary of the December 2011 Visa Bulletin with respect to family-based petitions:

FB1 moves forward (again, for fourth consecutive month). FB1 ROW, China and India all move forward by six (6) weeks to October 15, 2004. FB1 Mexico moves forward by one (1) week to April 15, 1993 and FB1 Philippines moves forward by six (6) weeks to April 15, 1997.
FB2A moves forward by one (1) month to April 22, 2009 for ROW, China, India, and Philippines. FB2A Mexico moves forward by six (6) weeks to March 22, 2009.
FB2B ROW, China and India move forward by three (3) weeks to September 8, 2003. FB2B Mexico moves forward by only one (1) week to December 1, 1992. FB2B Philippines moves forward by two (2) weeks to September 1, 2001.

VISA AVAILABILITY IN THE COMING MONTHS

EB Categories

CHINA-MAINLAND BORN AND INDIA EMPLOYMENT-BASED SECOND PREFERENCE VISA AVAILABILITY IN THE COMING MONTHS
The China and India Employment Second preference cut-off date has been advanced at a rapid rate in recent months. As previously noted, this action was intended to generate significant levels of new filings for adjustment of status at U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) offices. USCIS has reported that the rate of new filings is currently far below that which they had anticipated, prompting an even more aggressive movement of the cut-off date for January and possibly beyond. While this action greatly increases the potential for an eventual retrogression of the cut-off at some point during the year, it also provides the best opportunity to utilize all numbers available under the annual limit.

As per statement in Visa Bulletin, demand is still very less for EB2-IC and DOS expects to move dates more aggressively only if demand will stay low for next few month(s). Advancement could be as big as 4-6 months minimum. It is unclear so far that such movement was solely based on less demand or HR 3012 also played a role in Mr. Oppenheim's decision. In any case, even with multiple PERM factor, 01 January 2009 or little more movement is plausible in wake of HR 3012. So far Mr. Oppenheim has stuck to his prediction, and movement in February 2012 visa bulletin cannot be discarded. More on demand could be inferred from January 2012 I-485 Inventory that will be released in Jan-Feb 2012. So far lets hope for the best and be ready for the worst.

EB3-ROW-M-P movement was less than anticipated. As per our calculation that's only 1300 visas worth movement. Not quite sure yet If HR 3012 is affecting Mr. Oppenheim's decision but we will know more in successive visa bulletins. CP demand is always unknown to us and with recent release of NVC waiting list that numbers must have changed significantly. This could be reason for the difference in movement of 3 weeks vs. 2 weeks.

FB Categories

No Notes

January 2012 Visa Bulletin Predictions - EB Category

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Tue, 29 Nov 2011 03:17:00 +0000

January 2012 Visa Bulletin will be the first bulletin for Q2 - FY 2012. Here is the prediction for January 2012 Visa Bulletin. We should see following movements in each category as long as USCIS/DOS would use visa numbers for each category as per statutory allocations.

January 2012 Visa Bulletin Predictions

EB3- China could advance to 22 September 2004
EB3 – ROW, EB3-Philippines, and EB3-Mexico could advance to 08 February 2006.
EB2 will be current for ROW, Mexico and Philippines.
EB3-India could advance to 08 August 2002.
EB2-India and EB2-China could see No movement - 3.5 months movement. It is not possible to estimate movement for EB2-IC based on available demand and calculations. Based on calculations, EB2-IC should stop over here; present demand would provide enough cases that can be allocated visas through EB2-IC annual limits and estimated spillover as per current trend. January 2012 movement will be solely based on DOS/USCIS’ policy to intake enough buffer demand for FY 2012. At this time, our gut feeling is that movement can be as big as 1-3.5 months in January 2012 visa bulletin before we may see retrogression. In successive bulletins (Feb-Mar 2012) dates may stall or even retrogress (exception is H.R. 3012). We will be more confident on Jan VB after release of this month’s demand data.

Note – Predictions are based on educated guess and is not guaranteed. Please take it with a grain of salt.

EB Category Roll-Over and PWMB Demand Estimation from I-485 Receipt Data

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Mon, 21 Nov 2011 02:51:00 +0000

We analyzed I-485 Approvals and Receipts for FY 2011 to estimate carry-over demand from FY 2011 in EB category. We also used this data in conjunction with USCIS I-485 Performance data and I-485 representative filings from June to September 2011 at trackitt to estimate People Who Missed the Boat (PWMB) demand for EB2-IC upto September 2011 that may start consuming visa numbers from FY 2012 annual allocation and/or spillover. Please note PWMB demand is only upto cut-off date of 15 April 2007 that last became current until September 2011.

We used I-485 Performance data from USCIS website to estimate representation of Employment-Based cases from the total I-485 cases filed at USCIS service centers. Please note that all the listed cases are filed at Texas Service Center or Nebraska Service Center as per instruction on I-485 form. Family-Based I-485 Cases are filed at Chicago Lock Box and then respectively forwarded to local field offices for processing.

Based on above data, we can safely assume that from time to time Employment-Based Category representation is around 27% of total I-485 cases received at USCIS Service Centers (TSC and NSC). Now if we assume that this percent representation also held true during June to September 2011, we can use I-485 Receipt data to estimate roll-over demand from EB1 and EB2-ROW to FY 2011, and calculate PWMB cases upto 15 April 2007 that will become documentarily qualified now until January 2012 which will take visa allocations from FY 2012.

Using assumption of 27%, we estimated that out of 73900 I-485 cases received by USCIS, atleast 19,953 cases were filed in Employment-Based category. We then used data from trackitt.com to get distribution of I-485 cases filed since June 2011 to September 2011 at USCIS. Some assumptions were made for EB2-IC representation on trackitt compared to other categories. Distribution for each assumption is tabulated below.

Above analysis suggest that backlogged carry-over EB1 and EB2-ROW demand from FY 2011 to FY 2012 is huge and will definitely affect spillover in case similar trend is continued. 2X-3X representation of EB2-IC on trackitt looks more realistic and estimated carry-over PWMBs that may start using visa numbers from November -February at NSC and TSC can be anywhere from 3,500-4,800. In case numbers are less than suggested above, then retrospectively it would mean more demand for EB1 and EB2-ROW. One way or other this will affect total spillover that EB2-IC would receive for FY 2012. Apart from this, there are lot more PWMBs that may became eligible since October 1, 2011.

We can arrive at similar demand for PWMB upto 15 April 2007 after using I-485 inventory released data until October 2011. Estimation comes around 4,136 + 8,965 - 8,000 = 5,101. In reality actual numbers can be less but we should still keep track of PWMB cases from FY 2011 that still are not approved at USCIS. Approvals on trackitt look far less than hoped for. Although we still believe some movement may happen for EB2-IC in next bulletin but outlook for EB2-IC based on spillover looks less optimistic. Only reason we believe some more movement may happen is because this is first year when USCIS wlll really have to approve total 140K - CP cases in an year (apart from HR 3012 scenario). So far USCIS always relied on pre-adjudicated cases to reach their annual target. More cases pending at USCIS means more clean cases ready by end of the year for approvals. In case such approvals are not possible then CP cases are only hope for DOS.

Apart from above estimation, please note that cases filed at NSC from May 2011 are comparatively more than those filed at TSC. It may be that with time, TSC and NSC processing times would start aligning and I-485 approvals could eventually take anywhere from 5-6 months at both centers.

Visa Bulletin - December 2011

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Fri, 11 Nov 2011 03:57:00 +0000

December 2011 Visa Bulletin for the FY 2012 was released today. December visa bulletin brought 4.5 month movement for the EB-2 China and EB-2 India categories., thus moving it to the most favorable cur-off dates ever. EB3 categories advanced as expected with EB3-ROW-M-P moving by 3 weeks. EB3-India and China moved as expected. All other categories are current as expected. Family Based category saw some movement.

Employment-Based (EB)
Below is a summary of the December 2011 Visa Bulletin with respect to employment-based petitions:

EB-1 remains current across the board.
EB-2 remains current for EB-2 ROW, Mexico and Philippines. EB-2 India and EB-2 China both move forward by four and a half (4.5) months to March 15, 2008.
EB-3 ROW, EB-3 Mexico and EB-3 Philippines move forward by only three (3) weeks to January 15, 2006, EB-3 China moves forward by two (2) weeks to September 8, 2004, while EB-3 India moves forward by only one (1) week to August 1, 2002.
The “other worker” category remains unchanged (again) at April 22, 2003 for China. It moves forward by one and a half (1.5) months for ROW, Mexico and Philippines to January 1, 2006. It also moves forward by five (5) weeks for India to July 22, 2002.

Family-Based (FB)

Below is a summary of the December 2011 Visa Bulletin with respect to family-based petitions:

FB1 moves forward (again, for third consecutive month). FB1 ROW, China and India all move forward by five (5) weeks to September 1, 2004. FB1 Mexico moves forward by one (1) week to April 8, 1993 and FB1 Philippines moves forward by three (3) weeks to March 1, 1997.
FB2A moves forward by five (5) weeks to March 22, 2009 for ROW, China, India, and Philippines. FB2A Mexico moves forward by two (2) months to February 8, 2009.
FB2B ROW, China and India move forward by two (2) weeks to August 15, 2003. FB2B Mexico remains unchanged at November 22, 1992. FB2B Philippines moves forward by one (1) month to August 15, 2001.

VISA AVAILABILITY IN THE COMING MONTHS

FB Categories
No Notes

EB Categories

No Notes

Demand Data Comparison for December & November 2011 Visa Bulletin Movement

EB3-ROW-M-P Future Movement

EB3-ROW-M-P moved to cut-off date of 15 January 2006 as expected based on current demand and available visas used on monthly basis. I do not want to sound like a broken record, but there is always some hidden demand and other regularly old PD cases that continuously become documentarily qualified, thus receiving visas from the monthly allocation. Some of these cases are old and are captured in I-485 pending inventory. On average 1500-1600 demand is generally reduced on a monthly basis from the available inventory. With the released I-485 pending inventory and recently released demand data, it is becoming more and more obvious that cut-off dates for FY 2012 for this category may not cross 01 August 2006. We will keep an eye on the demand data but anything more than this is less plausible so far.

EB3-India & China Future Movement

EB3-India will continue to move 1 week in each visa bulletin. There could be some substantial movement later in the year but so far this will be the trend. EB3-China is difficult to predict due to high consular processing demand but we expect it to move and cross into PD 2005 for this fiscal year.

EB2-India & China Movement

Dates for EB2-IC has crossed into cut-off date of March 2008. It is impressive to see that Mr. Oppenheim is taking different approach this year and we should applaud him for his efforts. Since Mr. Oppenheim is taking different course for FY 2012, we believe that we should also keep our dogmatic approach to number crunching away for sometime until it make sense to do so. We should try to speculate what can happen in next few bulletins and successive months from their until summer 2012. We may be 'out to lunch' with this approach but can very well veer back to number crunching if this does not make sense in next few bulletins.

We believe retrogression is imminent in summer 2012; only exception will be HR 3012 if it will become a law by that time. We know that current movement upto March 2008 from 15 April 2007(Sep VB date) would easily bring demand that could end up using around 28K-30K visas from 140,000 available EB category visas. These are definitely in par with what we would usually see year-to-year with EB2-IC spillover + 5600 annual limits.

Question is so what can we expect from Mr. Oppenheim hereon? Firstly, we can say he has no clue that what real demand is due to such movement and lets presume he might not get hold off this until next two months ( that too only if he decides to persuade USCIS to tell him the numbers based on receipts issued).In reality, he may have to wait for real count on demand until April-May 2012 when such cases will start to become documentarily qualified and USCIS will start requesting for visa numbers.

That said, Mr. Oppenheim may not still be done with intaking more applications for this fiscal year. First, based on past year trend on visa use, monthly demand and estimations, EB2-IC had always moved around 11 months each year. By moving dates upto March 2008, he had just covered those bases. But still he does not know what would happen with HR 3012, whether it will pass with effective date of 01 September 2011. We know from our estimation on this bill, that cut-off dates until PD June 2008 would easily be current if this bill is passed. With approximation on fall-outs due to unforeseen reason, we can expect PD July-August 2008 to be current. If Mr. Oppenheim will stop such movement from next visa bulletin, he may miss that window on keeping cases ready for adjudication in case HR 3012 will become a law as he mentioned in previous bulletin that it can take 4-6 months to get these cases adjudicated. As I mentioned ,this is a speculation and I may be out to lunch but we believe in coming bulletin(s), EB2-IC dates may move all the way from June 2008-August 2008. Once, DOS will have enough applications in hand, it will be pretty straight forward for DOS to retrogress EB2-IC or EB2-ROW in summer 2012, whatever is appropriate based on fate of the bill.

Now who can expect Green Card for FY 2012? and how will dates retrogress? One thing to keep in mind with USCIS is that they will approve cases randomly usually based on month of filings, regardless of Priority Date. Now since most of the July 2007 backlog is cleared, I believe in 4 to 6 months when such cases will start becoming documentarily qualified, we will start to see approvals. Usually in such case, application filed at NSC will have upper hand compared to TSC filings due to vast difference in processing times. Generally during these months of the year, TSC will only approve 6000-8000 cases and NSC will approve around 10,000 cases consistently. So please do not be surprised if NSC case that become current in December bulletin will see approval before November bulletin cases. This is very common with USCIS. Approvals will be random. File your cases as perfect as possible so that you do not receive RFEs. In general, FY 2012 for EB2-IC will be exceptional with respect to approvals, with dates all over from August 2007 PD to March 2008 PD getting randomly approved. Once DOS will feel that enough visa numbers are used for EB2-IC based on EB1 and EB2-ROW demand, at that time dates may retrogress upto PD 01 Sep 07- 01 Nov 07. This is when we will start to see some huge numbers in demand data and we can go back to our number crunching and predictions based on calculations. For some time we believe VB movement and approvals at USCIS will be random.

H.R. 3012 - Estimation of EB category Cut-Off Date movement if it becomes a law

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Sat, 29 Oct 2011 21:45:00 +0000

The Fairness for High-Skilled Immigrants Act, H.R. 3012, was introduced by Representative Jason Chaffetz (R-UT) on September 22, 2011 and was approved by judiciary committee for consideration in the house. This bill still has long way to go but as few readers requested us to analyze the impact of this law on current cut-off date movements for EB category, we are providing some rough estimation in this article.

Summary of the Bill

The bill aims to eliminate per-country visa limits, which are currently causing severe backlogs in green card. As of right now, the Immigration and Nationality Act allows for only 140,000 employment-based visas to be allocated each year. At present, the percentage of visas that can be allocated to any one country is capped at 7% percent of all of the employment-based visas available.

Under the Fairness for High-Skilled Immigrants Act, the per-country limit on employment-based visas would be eliminated by 2015 after a 3 year phase-in period (FY 2012, FY 2013 and FY 2014). During the 3 year transition, the vast majority of Employment Based visas would be allocated on first-in-first out basis in order to eliminate the current backlogs.

As pointed by one of our reader, an amendment presented by Rep Lofgren to this bill was approved by the committee. As per the amendment, final rules as followed will beapplied to EB2 and EB3 category only. No change in rule is expected for EB1, EB4 and EB5.

In FY 2012, backlogged pending cases irrespective of country with earlier priority date would receive unreserved visas - 85% of the visa allocation within a category with respect to . In FY 2013 and FY 2014 they would receive 90% of the visa allocations within a category. There is a limit of 25% for reserved visas and 85 % for unreserved visas that could be made available for a single country under this bill. Reserved visas will be only available until FY 2014 (and in general will be used by ROW-M-P based on current backlog). After FY 2014, all visas (there will be no reserved or unreserved visas) within a category will be used strictly for backlog reduction solely based on first-in-first out (FIFO) regardless of country of birth. Please note that there is no change in spillover rules, unused visas will be allocated regardless of country strictly based on priority date from one category to other category during later quarter in a fiscal year.

Regardless of these updates estimation do not change, as at no point any country for first three phase in period will use more than 85% of the limit.

Estimation of cut-off dates movement each year if HR 3012 becomes a law

We have summarized the estimation of cut-off date movements for EB category if HR 3012 will become a law effective 30 September 2011. In general, EB2 category will be backlogged for 3-4 years whereas EB3 category will be backlogged for 8-9 years. During estimation of such cut-off dates, it was assumed that EB2 category will not receive more than 15000 spillovers or unused visa. 15000 seems like far optimized estimation after considering that with this new bill, EB2 backlogged countries would receive spillover from EB1, EB4 and EB5 (not EB2-ROW as allocation are very less). With time and current backlog, we expect EB5 at best would yield 5000 and EB1 only 10,000.

It is also assumed that EB2 category will not be current for quite some time as EB2-ROW will be backlogged until 2015 and new EB2-IC demand will always be replenishing inventory. That said, EB3 will not receive any spillover anytime soon. This is an assumption and reality may be different. EB1 category is always assumed current for sake of simplicity in calculations.

Generally Reserved will be used by ROW-M-P; Unreserved will be used by I-C for initial years

Visa Bulletin Predictions from Mr. Charles Oppenheim & More...

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Fri, 28 Oct 2011 00:47:00 +0000

US Non-Immigrants Blog - Immigration News Update

27 October 2011

These are many things that are currently happening at the EB category level. We would like to capture our take and analysis in this article.

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Visa Bulletin Predictions from Mr. Charles Oppenheim

Source - http://www.cilawgroup.com/news/2011/10/26/visa-bulletin-predictions-and-updates-from-charles-oppenheim-october-26-2011/

Capital Immigration Law Group and others law firms recently met with Charles Oppenheim in Washington, DC. Mr. Oppenheim is the Chief of the Visa Control and Reporting Division at the U.S. Department of State. For many, he is simply known as the person responsible for the monthly and annual visa number allocations for family- and employment-based green cards. He is also the person who prepares and publishes the monthly visa bulletin which is highly anticipated every month.

Capital Immigration Law Group’s summary from meeting with Mr. Oppenheim’s

Visa Bulletin Predictions – Employment-Based

Mr. Oppenheim was able to provide some predictions and expectations for movement of visa numbers over the next few months. Please note that these are short-term predictions and depending on the number of applications as a result of the next few months’ visa numbers, the rate of cutoff date movement may change.

EB-2 Rest of World (ROW). This category is expected to remain current throughout the fiscal year.

EB-2 China and EB-2 India. These two categories are where the most action is going to be over the next few months. Mr. Oppenheim indicated that he expects to be able to advance EB-2 China and India significantly over the next few visa bulletins. It is possible that the December 2011 Visa Bulletin would advance EB-2 India and China to at least March 1, 2008 or even further. Similar forward movement may be expected in the January 2012 and February 2012 Visa Bulletins. Mr. Oppenheim cautioned, however, that if there is high demand (number of filings) in the EB-2 category, he may hold or even retrogress towards the summer of 2012. He noted that there is usually a 4-6 month gap between filing of an I-485 adjustment application and when a visa number is actually requested and allocated — this means that EB-2 India and China I-485 applications filed in the fall will be need visa numbers in spring/summer of 2012 and this is when retrogression may happen.

EB-3 Rest of World (ROW). This category is expected to move gradually slightly forward for the next few visa bulletins — anticipated forward movement of 3 to 4 weeks per month.

EB-3 China. This category is expected to move slowly forward – by 1-3 weeks per month for the next few months.

EB-3 India. Unfortunately, this category is, according to Mr. Oppenheim, “ridiculously oversubscribed” and forward movement, if any, will be very slow. This category is expected to remain unchanged or to move very slowly forward (by a 1-2 weeks or so). This is mainly caused by the fact that there are simply too many EB-3 India applicants waiting for a visa number to become available. Mr. Oppenheim suggested that since the summer of 2007, no new EB-3 India cases have been filed and there is a significant number of EB-3 India candidates waiting for the priority dates to move forward.

Our take

EB-2 China and EB-2 India.- After such estimation from Mr. Charlie Oppenheim, it is clear that we will see cut-off date of 01 March 2008 or better pretty soon.

Previously this was analyzed in detail herein, and is now currently summarized below for reference.

"Demand Data for EB2-IC reduced by 5400 compared to last month to account for movement upto July 15th 2007 in October Visa Bulletin. This reduction in demand allowed DOS to move dates to 01 Nov 2007 for the current bulletin. We expect that total movement for this month could bring in 13,976 (inclusive 2,675 from demand data) demand. So far for last two months, USCIS would eventually see demand around 5400+13976 = 19,376 once these applications would convert into documentary qualified applications. Out of these, 8,000 is known demand upto July 2007. As we all know, DOS will not be able to sustain this ready-to-use demand for long time unless it will retrogress dates next visa bulletin or eventually start using quarterly spillover.

I have a very strong feeling that DOS really want to use quarterly spillover, and hence we are not seeing many EB2-IC approvals from TSC yet. So far, NSC is in par with the EB1 and EB2-ROW demand but TSC still have some catching up to do in this regard. Once EB2-ROW and EB1 demand is satisfied, apparently it will be easy for USCIS/DOS to rationalize use of left over quarterly visas as spillover. Mr. Oppenheim clearly mentioned in the visa bulletin that some more significant movement in expected during this fiscal year before he will decide to pull the plug. Total visa demand for EB2-IC that he may have in mind can be any where from 25000-30000 including annual visa quota. We already know 19,376 is already taken care of and atleast 5600 - 10,600 more intake is expected for this year at some point. In terms of cut-off dates this means, we can see January 2008 - April 2008 current anytime.

It is difficult to guess when such movement will happen but atleast 3-6 months total movement in one or two steps is expected. Such movement for December or January visa bulletin cannot be discarded at this time although current bulletin clearly mentioned such movement should not be expected as a norm on monthly basis. Eventually when dates will retrogress, it is expected to reach June 2007 PD in worst case. We still believe for current fiscal year November 2007 will receive green card and December 2007-January 2008 will be on the edge. Individuals with PD from Jan- June 2008 can expect EAD, with June 2008 having slim chance and March 2008 best"

EB-3 (ROW-M-P) - Based on Mr. Oppenheim's estimation and data from currently released October 2011 I-485 pending inventory report, we expect dates for EB3-ROW-M-P to atleast reach PD July 2006-September 2006 in FY 2012. EB3-P demand is high for calendar year 2006 which may restrict cut-off date movement . Realistically, August 2006 is still plausible.

EB3-India is expected to reach 08 November 2002 by end of FY 2012.

______________________________________________________

October 2011 I-485 Pending Inventory Released

Source - USCIS

USCIS yesterday released I-485 pending inventory upto 01 October 2011. Please note this inventory is only for Service Centers and Field Offices, and does not contain consular processing cases. Dependents are included. Here is a quick summary of the I-485 inventory when compared to previous inventories,

EB1 demand : In general, EB1 is highly backlogged with atleast 14072 applications still pending at Service Centers. This is high when compared year-to-year to similar inventories previously released in October 2010 and August 2009. Generally with start of an each fiscal year, such pending numbers were within 5000-8000. This backlog is highly affected by Kazarian Memo and with time can affect spillover to EB2 category if such demand or backlog would continuously grow for rest of the year.

EB2-ROW-M-P demand - When compared to previous some inventories year to year (or quarter to quarter) current inventory for this category stands at least 20% higher. If such demand is maintained for rest of the year, spillover received will be minimum from this category. It is estimated that EB2-IC received atleast 6000 unused visa numbers from this category in FY 2011. At current rate, such numbers can be as low as 1000-2000,

EB2-IC demand - From October 2010 to October 2011, reduction in inventory for this category is 27386. We should note that last year EB2-I used it's annual limit of 2803 just to satisfy porting demand. Adding these two together, we can say 30,189 visas were used alone for EB2-IC; which also matches closely to our estimated (spillover + annual limit) for FY 2011. Estimated worst-case pending PWMB + new porting still pending at USCIS from the inventory is around 4067 = 8965 + 3102 - 8000

EB3- ROW demand - Inventory for EB3-ROW matches closely with demand data last released for November visa bulletin. As mentioned before that year to year inventory for EB3-ROW does not make sense as some so called 'hidden demand' always appear. We will expect to see atleast PD July 2006 for FY 2012 due to high EB3-P demand of 7725 for CY 2006. Please note that CP demand for EB3-P is not included in this inventory. In past such demand were as high as 30% for CP cases.

EB3- India - Inventory for EB3-India compared to last fiscal year reduced by 4884 (2803 annual limit + 2081 estimated porting and/or case abandonment upto January 2003 ). Minimum movement around 08 November 2002 is expected. Movement can be little more if more folks from November-December 2002 will port for this year.

EB4- demand - Last year, EB4 demand was high or at par, and hence no spillover was received from this category. Demand for this category looks 50% less compared to last year. This category should be followed closely for rest of the year. Some spillover may be possible from this category.

EB5- demand - EB5 demand is similar level as last year and may yield around 3000-4000 unused visa numbers if similar demand is seen in FY 2012.

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H.R. 3012 approved by the Judiciary Committee and Moved to House Floor

The Fairness for High-Skilled Immigrants Act, H.R. 3012, was introduced by Representative Jason Chaffetz (R-UT) on September 22, 2011 and was approved today by judiciary committee for consideration in chamber. Please see below the steps that bill has to undergo before becoming a law. Bill has currently completed Step 6 (see below). The effect of this bill on different EB categories will be presented once bill is passed and becomes a law.

The bill aims to eliminate per-country visa limits, which are currently causing severe backlogs in green card. As of right now, the Immigration and Nationality Act allows for only 140,000 employment-based visas to be allocated each year. At present, the percentage of visas that can be allocated to any one country is capped at 7% percent of all of the employment-based visas available.

Under the Fairness for High-Skilled Immigrants Act, , the per-country limit on employment-based visas would be eliminated by 2015 after a 3 year phase-in period. During the 3 year transition, the vast majority of Employment Based visas would be allocated on first-in-first out basis in order to eliminate the current backlogs. In FY 2012, backlogged countries would receive unreserved visas - 85% of the visa allocation. In FY 2013 and FY 2014 they would receive 90% of the visa allocations.

H.R. 3012 also increases from 7% to 15% percent the total number of available visas regarding per-country restrictions for family-based immigrants.

How a Bill Becomes Law?

There are potentially 10 steps a bill can go through before becoming a law. Below is a description of each step in the process, using the Genetic Information Non-Discrimination Act of 2003 (S. 1053), as an example.

Step 1: A Bill Is Born

Anyone may draft a bill; however, only members of Congress can introduce legislation, and, by doing so, become the sponsor(s). The president, a member of the cabinet or the head of a federal agency can also propose legislation, although a member of Congress must introduce it.

Step 2: Committee Action

As soon as a bill is introduced, it is referred to a committee. At this point the bill is examined carefully and its chances for passage are first determined. If the committee does not act on a bill, the bill is effectively "dead."

Step 3: Subcommittee Review

Often, bills are referred to a subcommittee for study and hearings. Hearings provide the opportunity to put on the record the views of the executive branch, experts, other public officials and supporters, and opponents of the legislation.

Step 4: Mark up

When the hearings are completed, the subcommittee may meet to "mark up" the bill; that is, make changes and amendments prior to recommending the bill to the full committee. If a subcommittee votes not to report legislation to the full committee, the bill dies. If the committee votes for the bill, it is sent to the floor.

Step 5: Committee Action to Report a Bill

After receiving a subcommittee's report on a bill the full committee votes on its recommendation to the House or Senate. This procedure is called "ordering a bill reported."

Step 6: Voting

After the debate and the approval of any amendments, the bill is passed or defeated by the members voting.

Step 7: Referral to Other Chamber

When the House or Senate passes a bill, it is referred to the other chamber, where it usually follows the same route through committee and floor action. This chamber may approve the bill as received, reject it, ignore it, or change it.

Step 8: Conference Committee Action

When the actions of the other chamber significantly alter the bill, a conference committee is formed to reconcile the differences between the House and Senate versions. If the conferees are unable to reach agreement, the legislation dies. If agreement is reached, a conference report is prepared describing the committee members' recommendations for changes. Both the House and Senate must approve the conference report.

Step 9: Final Action

After both the House and Senate have approved a bill in identical form, it is sent to the president. If the president approves of the legislation, he signs it and it becomes law. Or, if the president takes no action for ten days, while Congress is in session, it automatically becomes law. If the president opposes the bill he can veto it; or if he takes no action after the Congress has adjourned its second session, it is a "pocket veto" and the legislation dies.

Step 10: Overriding a Veto

If the president vetoes a bill, Congress may attempt to "override the veto." If both the Senate and the House pass the bill by a two-thirds majority, the president's veto is overruled and the bill becomes a law.

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December 2011 Visa Bulletin Predictions - EB Category

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Sat, 22 Oct 2011 21:47:00 +0000

December Visa Bulletin will be the third bulletin for FY 2012. Here is the prediction for December 2011 Visa Bulletin. We should see following movements in each category as long as USCIS/DOS would use visa numbers for each category as per statutory allocations.

December 2011 Visa Bulletin Predictions

EB3- China could advance to 08 September 2004
EB3 – ROW, EB3-Philippines, and EB3-Mexico could advance to 15-Jan-2006.
EB2 will be current for ROW, Mexico and Philippines.
EB3-India could advance to 01 August 2002.
EB2-India and EB2-China could see 3-6 months in coming bulletins. It is not possible to estimate movement for EB2-IC based on available demand and calculations. Movement is solely based on DOS/USCIS’ policy to intake new demand for FY 2012. At this time, total movement as huge as 3-6 months in one or two steps in coming month(s) cannot be discarded before we may see retrogression. In next few bulletins, dates can move anywhere from Jan 2008 – June 2008. Although DOS warned about stall, they may (should) not stall current movement as such movement may not consume visas until these applications will become documentarily qualified.

Note – Predictions are based on educated guess and is not guaranteed. Please take it with a grain of salt.