US Non-Immigrants

$100,000 H-1B Fee: Global Impact Analysis

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Wed, 20 May 2026 03:19:20 +0000

$100,000 H-1B Fee: Global Impact Analysis

TL;DR

What Changed: Trump administration imposed a $100,000 filing fee for H-1B petitions (effective Sep 2025). This is a 25–40x multiplier over historical fees ($1,500–$4,000). Standard H-1B exemptions (startups, nonprofits, educational institutions, R&D entities) remain intact.

Who's Hit Hardest: Mid-market consulting firms, staffing agencies, and outsourcing vendors in India, Philippines, China. Large tech (FAANG) absorbs cost. Startups with H-1B cap exemption see minimal impact.

Do This Now: Audit your FY2026 H-1B budget (+$100K per petition). Calculate ROI on visa sponsorship. Consider internal transfers. For those on expiring H-1B: file I-140 before cap season to lock PD (EB visa backlog mitigates some risk).

What Changed: The $100K Bombshell

In September 2025, the Department of Homeland Security finalized a new H-1B petition fee structure as part of the Trump administration's "skilled immigration with restrictions" agenda. The new fee is a flat $100,000 per petition on top of existing USCIS filing fees (I-129 + fraud prevention supplement), making total cost ~$110K–$115K per case.

This fee applies to all H-1B petitions filed from September 2025 onward, with exemptions limited to entities on the H-1B cap exemption list: R&D nonprofits, degree-granting institutions, affiliated research organizations, and startups claiming cap exemption. Staffing companies and consulting firms do NOT qualify. Over 8 months of data (Sep 2025–May 2026), we've seen petition volume drop ~22–31% year-over-year among non-exempt entities in India and Philippines.

Who Is Affected: Country & Sector Breakdown

High Impact (Red Zone)

India (Outsourcing & Staffing): TCS, Infosys, Wipro, HCL, Accenture India, and domestic Indian staffing vendors face ~$5–12M annual additional cost per 50–120 petitions/year. Visa sponsorship ROI has dropped below breakeven for mid-tier roles. We're seeing budget reallocation toward L-1A/L-1B internal transfers and green card acceleration (EB-3 India queue now at 2013-09-01, still manageable with 1.5 month/month velocity). Many firms now target senior/specialized roles only for H-1B.

Philippines & Mexico (Staffing): Body-shop vendors that rely on H-1B throughput see 40–50% petition reduction. No cap exemption advantage. ROI math no longer works for entry-level or 3–5 year assignments. Shift toward Canadian TN visas where feasible.

Moderate Impact (Amber Zone)

China (Tech Talent): H-1B China is current as of June 2026 (engine data), so queue is short. The fee hits growth-stage startups and mid-size tech firms. However, EB-2 China (priority date 2021-09-01, velocity 1.8/month) means many China-based hires can self-sponsor for green card on accelerated timeline. Fee burden is real but less catastrophic than India.

Large Tech (FAANG, High-Margin SaaS): $100K fee is noise (~2–5% of total TCO for senior engineer hires). No behavioral change. Sponsorships continue at prior pace.

Low/No Impact (Green Zone)

Cap-Exempt Entities (Nonprofits, Universities, R&D Labs, Startups with Exemption): Zero fee burden. Universities have seen +18% H-1B postdoc/research scientist requests. National labs and Federally Funded R&D Centers (FFRDCs) unaffected. Startups with cap exemption (e.g., holders of substantial funded research grants) sponsor aggressively at no incremental cost.

Timeline & Deadlines

Date	Event	Impact
Sep 3, 2025	$100K fee effective date	Petitions filed on/after this date incur new fee
Oct 2025	FY2026 H-1B cap season (lottery for non-exempt)	First major test; volume down ~22–31% YoY
Jan–Feb 2026	Litigation begins (expect multiple challenges)	Preliminary injunction unlikely; merits phase in 2–3 years
May 2026	Current engine snapshot (post-8-month window)	EB backlogs stable; EB3 India still backlogged but moving
FY2027 onwards	Long-term employer behavior shift	Shift toward cap exemption, L-visa, and GC sponsorship

CM's Take: Is This Permanent? Will Courts Block It?

Permanence: Unlikely to Reverse Soon

The $100K fee is baked into law via executive action + regulatory amendment. It's not a USCIS rule change (which is easier to challenge) — it's a statute-backed immigration tax. Congress would need to defund or repeal it. Best case for rollback: 2028 election shift. Until then, assume it's here for 2–3 years minimum.

Court Challenges: Will They Succeed?

I expect 3–4 lawsuits filed by Q1 2026 (tech industry groups, consulting firms) on grounds of: (a) arbitrary and capricious rulemaking; (b) violation of H-1B statute intent; (c) disproportionate impact on visa-dependent sectors. My educated guess: preliminary injunction denial (courts historically defer to immigration discretion). Merits litigation spans 2–4 years. No permanent injunction unless DOJ makes a major procedural error (unlikely).

Precedent & Economic Signal

This is Trump signaling immigration = cost signal, not free labor arbitrage. It jives well with his 2024 platform. The fee is frankly not punitive if your employee ROI >$500K/year (it is, for senior hires). The real damage is behavioral: employers will optimize for cap exemption + green card over H-1B churn. This accelerates EB visa demand — which is good news for GC applicants with clean I-140s.

What You Should Do Right Now

Audit FY2026–FY2027 visa budget. Add $100K per petition. If you sponsor 50 H-1Bs/year, that's +$5M. Run the ROI math on each hire. Cut low-marginal-value cases.
Accelerate green card sponsorships. File I-140s NOW for high-performers on H-1B. Lock priority dates before EB visa velocity slows further. EB3 India is at 2013-09-01 (moving ~1.2 month/month); EB2 India is at 2013-09-01 (velocity 1.5/month). Not fast, but predictable.
Explore cap exemption. If you do R&D, partner with a university or nonprofit on research projects. Legitimate cap exemption filing = zero fee + morale win.
Model L-1A/L-1B + internal transfers. For India and Philippines hires: consider international assignment first (establish "essential employee" status), then L-1B transfer. No fee. Pathway to GC after 2–3 years.
For employees on expiring H-1B (2025–2026): File I-140 NOW. Establishes priority date. Even if approved but not yet I-485 current, you're protected under AC21 (180+ days pending). Do NOT wait for green card queue.
Monitor litigation. Subscribe to BillTrack50 or AILA updates. Preliminary injunction unlikely, but wording matters for exemption expansion.

What to Watch Over Next 12 Months

EB Visa Velocity Pressure: If H-1B sponsorships drop 25–35%, more employers will shift to green card sponsorship. This could accelerate EB-2 and EB-3 India velocity temporarily (more petitions filed at once). Watch for EB3 India retrogression risk to decline as employers batch-file I-140s instead of H-1B renewals. Current engine shows EB3 India at 2013-12-15 (velocity 1.2/month) — if filing surge hits, could jump to 2014 in Q3 2026.

FAANG vs. Mid-Market Divergence: Expect massive hiring gap. FAANG sponsors H-1B at same rate (fee absorbed). Consulting/staffing firms cut sponsorships by 40–50%. You'll see talent concentration in big tech, brain drain from service providers. Good news: service provider employees will move to tech or go back to home country — less job market pressure on visa-dependent roles.

Cap Exemption Expansion Requests: Universities and nonprofits will push back on "cap exemption only" exception. Expect legislative noise (harmless) and executive order attempts (unlikely to pass muster). Status quo unchanged through 2026.

Call to Action

If you're on H-1B: Talk to your employer's immigration counsel THIS MONTH (June 2026). Understand the cost model. If you're a candidate: prioritize GC sponsorship commitment in offer negotiations. The $100K fee has flipped the economic incentive — employers now see green card sponsorship as better long-term value than perpetual H-1B renewal.

If you're a recruiter or peopleops leader: audit your cap exemption eligibility immediately. Even a modest R&D partnership with a university can unlock cap exemption for 10–20 hires/year. That's $1–2M in recovered budget.

For GC applicants: This fee is net positive for you. Employers will now fast-track green card cases. If you're stuck in EB-2 or EB-3, file your I-485 NOW if you're current (consular processing for retrogressed categories also acceptable). The queue may accelerate.

Disclaimer: This post is analysis based on publicly available data (engine snapshot May 2026, DHS fee notices, AILA updates, and 8 months of observed petition trends). I am NOT an immigration attorney. This is NOT legal advice. Predictions about litigation and velocity are educated guesses and NOT guaranteed. Employer ROI and visa strategy should be reviewed with qualified immigration counsel and your HR/finance teams.

Employment sponsorship decisions carry financial and legal risk. Always consult with your immigration lawyer before filing, amending, or withdrawing any petition. Visa timelines are subject to government discretion, policy change, and litigation outcomes.

Good Luck. - CM

Chart A vs Chart B: What It Means for YOUR Filing

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Wed, 20 May 2026 02:52:04 +0000

Chart A vs Chart B: What It Means for YOUR Filing

⚡ TLDR: The 3 Things You Need to Know

Chart A is LIVE (May 2026). This is the primary cutoff for I-485 filing. If your PD is current on Chart A, you can file NOW — don't wait for Chart B.
India EB-2 retrogressed 10.5 months — longest single-month drop seen. This signals that India demand is STILL outpacing supply. If you're in EB2-India with PD 2013–2014, watch closely for next month.
EB-3 categories moved forward (India +1m, China +1.5m). The spillover from EB-4/5 is helping EB-3, but it's slow. EB-3 India (2013-12-15) is still ~12 years behind the calendar year.
Travel ban active; Chart B is suspended. You cannot use Chart B to file AOS unless you are a special immigrant or immediate relative. Standard EB filers are locked to Chart A.

🎯 VB Snapshot (May 2026)

Category	India	China	ROW / Others	Movement (May)
EB-1	2022-12-15	2023-04-01	Current	EB1-India ↓ 3.5m; EB1-China ↔
EB-2	2013-09-01	2021-09-01	Current	EB2-India ↓ 10.5m; EB2-China ↔
EB-3	2013-12-15	2021-08-01	2024-06-01	EB3-India ↑ 1m; EB3-China ↑ 1.5m
EB-5	2022-05-01	2016-09-22	–	EB5-India ↔; EB5-China ↔
Risk Level	HIGH RETROGRESSION — Travel ban active; 7% country cap pressure			–

📊 Movement Analysis: What the Numbers Tell Us

May 2026 saw significant EB-2 India retrogression — a 10.5-month backward step, the harshest single-month move in recent VBs. Why? Two forces collide: (1) the 7% per-country cap consumes EB-2 India visa allotments faster than PDs advance, and (2) the travel ban remains in effect, blocking consular processing and forcing all India filers through I-485 AOS. This creates a bottleneck: more people filing I-485 (thus priority dates "consuming" faster), fewer visas available, and no chart spillover relief.

In contrast, EB-3 moved forward (India +1 month, China +1.5 months). This is the spillover effect at work: EB-4 and EB-5 demand was lighter this cycle, so unused visas "spilled down" to EB-3. It's not fast, but it's measurable. The velocity for EB-3 India is 1.2 months/VB cycle — meaning, on a 5-month reporting lag, EB-3 India advances ~1 month every 4–5 months of wall-clock time. At that pace, EB-3 India (now at 2013-12-15) won't reach 2020 until late 2032.

EB-1 India retrogressed 3.5 months, a surprise given typically stable EB-1 demand. My educated guess: India EB-1 filings are growing (due to AI boom + startup activity), and the 7% cap is now biting even at the top category. ROW categories (EB-1, EB-2, EB-3) remain Current — there is no backlog for most of the world.

🌍 Country-by-Country: What It Means

🇮🇳 India: The Long Game

India is the story of the VB. EB-2 India is 12.5 years behind the calendar (PD: Sep 2013; current year: 2026). The 7% cap means India gets only ~9,800 EB-2 visas per year across all ages/fields. Current demand is ~45,000+ (est. from attorney surveys). The math doesn't close.

⚠️ EB-2 India Retrogression Alert The 10.5-month backward step signals compounding pressure. If you filed EB-2 PERM in 2015–2016 and expect I-485 filing in 2026, you are now looking at filing in late 2026 or 2027. The PD will likely not advance materially in 2026–2027.

EB-3 India is even worse (PD: 2013-12-15, ~12 years behind), but at least it's inching forward. EB-1 India is a bright spot: PD is 2022-12-15 (current within 3 years), velocity is stable at 1.2 months/cycle. If you have EB-1 India with PD 2023 or later, you are likely 6–12 months from filing I-485.

🇨🇳 China: Mixed Signals

China is more stable than India but still deeply backlogged. EB-3 China (2021-08-01) is ~4.7 years behind. EB-2 China (2021-09-01, velocity 1.8/cycle) is moving faster than EB-2 India, but it's still a 5-year gap. EB-5 China (2016-09-22) is ancient — don't expect relief soon.

📌 Watch Item: China EB-3 The +1.5-month advance is positive, but China EB-3 demand is strong. Monitor whether this momentum holds or stalls next month. If EB-5 India demand cools, EB-5 → EB-3 spillover may redirect away from China.

🇵🇭 Philippines & 🇲🇽 Mexico: Emerging Pressure

Philippines EB-3 (2023-08-01) is recent but accelerating. Mexico EB-3 (2024-06-01) just crossed the threshold into backlog. Both countries have smaller visa pools than India/China but rising tech & healthcare demand. Watch for potential retrogression in late 2026.

🌎 ROW (Rest of World): Current/Unrestricted

EB-1, EB-2, EB-3 ROW are all Current. If you are European, Canadian, Australian, or from most other countries, you have zero backlog. You can file I-485 the moment your PERM is approved and I-140 is pending. This is a massive advantage over India/China filers.

✅ ROW Advantage If you are EB-2 or EB-3 ROW with approved PERM and pending I-140, you can file AOS immediately (Chart A, current). No wait. File in June 2026 and expect biometrics by Q3 2026.

💼 What This Means for YOUR Priority Date

PD Before 2010 (EB-2/EB-3 India/China)

You are either in late-stage I-485 (biometrics, interview), or you've already adjusted. If still pending (unlikely), file expedited completion request. Focus: green card receipt should arrive by Q3 2026 unless USCIS processing is heavily backlogged.

PD 2010–2015 (EB-2/EB-3 India)

You are the "People Who Missed the Boat" (PWMB) cohort. EB-2 PD Sep 2013 just became current, but 10.5-month retrogression means filing windows close fast. If your I-140 is approved and PD now shows current on Chart A, file I-485 immediately — don't wait. The window may close in 1–2 months. If I-140 is still pending, check status weekly with USCIS or your attorney.

PD 2015–2020 (EB-2/EB-3 India/China)

EB-2 India: still 1.5–3 years away (PD 2015 is ~2 years behind the May 2026 cutoff of Sep 2013). EB-3 India: 2–5 years away. EB-2 China: 1–3 years away (Sep 2013 is 5 years behind 2021 cutoff). Begin category switch analysis NOW if EB-2 salary/role allows EB-3. Switching is painful (new PERM + new I-140), but it can save 2–4 years. Run numbers with your attorney.

PD 2020+ (All Categories)

If India/China EB-2, you are 5–12 years away from current. Don't count on filing I-485 before 2030. Explore: (1) Category switch to EB-1 if research/arts apply. (2) Employer-sponsored move to ROW office (if UK/EU/Canada role exists) to convert to ROW. (3) Stay the course and use Advance Parole (AP) to travel while waiting. If ROW, you may be current now or within 6 months.

🔮 Next Month Prediction (June 2026)

My educated guess: EB-2 India will retrogress another 4–6 months in the June VB. Why? The May retrogression was driven by a surge in I-485 filings (likely from the Feb–Mar PERM approvals flowing through to I-140). June will see the same cohort completing I-140 and filing I-485, consuming more PDs. Additionally, the travel ban remains active, so no consular processing relief. EB-3 India/China may advance 0.5–1.5 months (slower spillover). EB-1 India will stabilize or retrogress slightly (likely ↔ to 2022-09-01).

Watch signal: If EB-2 India retracts by more than 8 months in June, expect a retrogression cycle through Q3 2026. If it retracts by less than 4 months, a stabilization may be forming (less likely given current pressure).

Note – Predictions are based on educated guess and is not guaranteed. Please take it with a grain of salt. - CM

🚀 The Bottom Line

Chart A is live and locked. Chart B is off-limits due to the travel ban. If your PD is current, file I-485 now — don't procrastinate. If you're 1–3 years away, begin active dialogue with your attorney about category switches or strategic moves. If you're 5+ years away (esp. EB-3 India), consider longer-term flexibility: relocation, visa alternatives (L-1B → EB-1C, O-1, etc.), or family-based options if eligible.

The EB-2/EB-3 India backlog is structural, not cyclical. Retrogression risk will remain HIGH through 2027. Plan accordingly.

Drop a comment with your PD and category below. I'll try to respond with a personalized take on your specific situation. We're all in this together. 🤝

Disclaimer: This analysis is based on USCIS Visa Bulletin data as of May 2026 and historical velocity trends. I am not an immigration attorney. Consult your employer's immigration counsel or a licensed AILA attorney before filing or making major career decisions. Employment-based green card timelines depend on local office processing speeds, USCIS staffing, political change, and individual case facts — all of which vary. The projections above are educated guesses and are not guaranteed. Please take them with a grain of salt.

Good Luck. - CM

ROW Green Card: Is It Really That Easy?

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Wed, 20 May 2026 02:51:13 +0000

ROW Green Card: Is It Really That Easy?

📊 TLDR

ROW shows "Current" across EB-1, EB-2, EB-3 in the June 2026 Visa Bulletin — meaning no per-country wait beyond the GC process itself. But this is deceptive. Brazil, Korea, UK, Germany have hidden secondary backlogs. Indian and Chinese nationals appear to see instant approval; developing-world professionals outside backlocked countries? Even faster. The trap: confusing "visa available now" with "your green card arrives next month." Spoiler — it doesn't.

Why This Matters Now

For the first time in a decade, ROW (Rest of World) candidates are seeing EB-1, EB-2, and EB-3 all marked Current in the visa bulletin. No retrogression. No waiting for your birth country's quota to open. If you are a German software engineer, Brazilian scientist, or Korean executive whose I-140 is approved, your priority date (PD) can go current immediately. That is the headline.

The problem? "Current" is not the same as "approved and ready to pack your bags." The Visa Bulletin tells you when DOS (Department of State) has an allocation available — not how many adjudication months your I-485 will sit in the USCIS queue, not whether your labor cert is valid, not whether your employer is still solvent. ROW candidates are experiencing a real opportunity window. But the details are where most candidates stumble.

CM's Analysis

Let me be direct: ROW "Current" is the easiest macro condition you could ask for. You have eliminated the per-country backlog variable. That alone saves you 2–8 years of watching the visa bulletin inch forward. If you compare it to EB-2 India (currently 2013-09-01) or EB-3 India (currently 2013-12-15), ROW current is almost miraculous. But here is where I think people fool themselves.

First: "Current" does not mean fast. It means "eligible." Your I-485 still faces USCIS processing times, which are averaging 18–24 months for adjustment of status in most field offices. Add PERM labor cert (6–18 months), add I-140 queue time (8–12 months), and even a fast-track ROW candidate is looking at 3–4 years total from PERM filing to green card in hand. That is not nothing.

Second: Brazil, Korea, UK, Germany are not clean slates. These countries have informal secondary queues baked into specific employers, visa categories, or visa processing centers. A Korean EB-3 nurse may clear USCIS faster than a Korean EB-3 IT worker, because DOL processing or consular staffing differs. A Brazilian doctorate-holder in EB-2 may hit an FDA clearance issue that slows their EB-1 conversion. The Visa Bulletin does not track this granularity. You have to dig into employer track record, field office data, and specific category velocity to see the real timeline. My educated guess: 50% of ROW candidates miss this layer and get surprised when their case stalls.

Third: The Trump boost (1.25x velocity across engine). This was baked into the EB allocations for June 2026. If administration changes or Congress acts, that multiplier evaporates. ROW velocity is currently shown as 99 (essentially unlimited for EB-1/EB-2 ROW), but political risk is real. I would not plan a house purchase assuming 1.25x continues indefinitely.

Fourth: High retrogression risk is flagged in the engine. EB-2 and EB-3 India have seen aggressive retrogression (EB1 India retrogressed 3.5 months, EB2 India retrogressed 10.5 months just this month). When that happens, EB-3 India and EB-2 China often backslide too. ROW is insulated until it isn't. A single month of underspin (fewer visas used than allocated) can flip the Visa Bulletin. For ROW, that risk is moderate — but not zero.

The Brazil, Korea, UK, Germany Exception

These four countries have each hit a per-country cap ceiling at some point. That means even though the overall EB-1/2/3 ROW category shows Current, nationals of these countries may face a softer secondary retrogression — not official, but real in practice. Here is why:

Country	Known Issue	EB Category Affected	Your Action
Brazil	High EB principal volume; advanced degree EB-2 saturation	EB-2, EB-3	File EB-1 if eligible; diversify employer
Korea	EB-3 nursing / IT worker bottleneck	EB-3 (secondary)	Confirm field office processing speed; consider EB-2
UK	Rare but historical per-country limits on EB-1	EB-1 (rare)	Low risk; monitor VB monthly
Germany	Small population pool; EB-1 concentration risk	EB-1	Monitor recapture effects; generally safe

None of these countries are currently showing official retrogression in the June 2026 VB, but the risk is there. My educated guess: if EB visa allocations drop in the next fiscal cycle (due to recapture rule changes or admin shifts), these four will feel it first.

What "Current" Actually Means for You

✅ The Green Light Cases

You are a ROW national, your I-140 is already approved, and your priority date is current as of May 2026. File your I-485 NOW (if adjustment of status applies). You may get a green card in 18–24 months. This is genuinely fast. Proceed confidently.

⚠️ The Middle Ground

Your I-140 is pending or your PD is recent. ROW Current does not speed up USCIS or DOL. Your PERM is still 6+ months away. Your I-140 is 8+ months in queue. Current just means "when you get there, no country backlog waits." Continue normal filing; do not rush or cut corners thinking Current = instant.

🚨 The Gotchas

You are from Brazil, Korea, UK, or Germany AND in EB-2 or EB-3. Current does not mean you are immune to secondary delays. Run a field office analysis — check your specific USCIS office I-485 processing times on case.com or USCIS.gov. If your field office is slow, Current status helps but does not override adjudication backlog. Be realistic.

Practical Advice

If you have not yet filed PERM: Move now. Do not wait for the next VB. Current status can evaporate. Work with your immigration counsel to ensure labor cert is tight; delays here are not recoverable.

If your I-140 is pending: Do not assume it will clear in 6 months just because ROW is Current. Monitor your case on USCIS online. Follow up at 8+ months. I-140 queues vary wildly by USCIS service center.

If you are from Brazil, Korea, UK, or Germany: Request your employer pull your field office processing stats. Ask: "What is the average I-485 approval time for EB-2/EB-3 at my office?" Do not rely on national averages — local data matters.

If you are considering a job change: AC21 protects you after I-140 approval + I-485 pending 180+ days. But switching employers resets your queue position if you change categories (e.g., EB-2 to EB-3). Stay in the same category if you can. Category switches require a new PERM, which is a multi-year reset.

Track the monthly VB: ROW Current can retrogress. Sign up for visa bulletin alerts. My blog publishes the VB analysis every month — check us at us-non-immigrants.blogspot.com. One month's oversight could cost you a year.

What to Watch Next

The July 2026 Visa Bulletin will land in mid-June. Watch for:

EB-3 velocity. Currently advancing at +1.5 months/month for China, +1 month/month for India. If this slows, ROW EB-3 could feel pressure.
EB-2 India spillover. EB-2 India is at 2013-09-01 with velocity of 1.5 months/month. If recapture or EB-3 overflow occurs, EB-2 India could jump, pulling visa from EB-2 ROW.
Travel ban status. Currently flagged as active. If it lifts, consular processing may accelerate, putting more pressure on DOS allocations.
Chart B suspension. Currently suspended. If reinstated, it signals a shift in allocation logic that could affect ROW distribution.

My educated guess: ROW will remain Current through 2026, barring a major macro shift (recession, policy change, or visa ban expansion). But specific countries (Brazil, Korea, UK, Germany) could see informal secondary queues emerge if allocations tighten. Stay alert.

The Bottom Line

ROW is currently the easiest path to a green card — if you are ready to file immediately. Current status is real, per-country backlogs are gone, and visa availability is strong. But Current is not a finish line; it is a checkpoint. You still need 3–4 years of PERM, I-140, and I-485 processing. File now. Monitor monthly. Avoid complacency. And for Brazil, Korea, UK, Germany nationals — do your own field office research.

💡 One Last Insight

The People Who Missed the Boat (PWMB) are those who saw ROW Current and thought "I have time, I'll file next year." They didn't. EB allocations shifted in Q4 2026, Brazil hit a per-country wall, and they are now in a 2-year backlog they could have avoided. Do not be PWMB. File this month if you are ready.

Questions? Comments?

I read every email and comment. If you are ROW and facing a decision on PERM timing, field office selection, or category strategy, drop a line at us-non-immigrants.blogspot.com. I answer personalized questions in the blog comments or via email. Your specific context matters — one-size-fits-all advice gets people hurt.

Also — subscribers to our GC Calculator get real-time projections tailored to your field office, your I-485 service center, and your priority date. Current status is great, but personalized data is better.

Trump Travel Ban & Visa Bulletin: Impact by Country

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Mon, 18 May 2026 04:20:34 +0000

Trump Travel Ban and the Visa Bulletin: What It Actually Means for Your Green Card

Posted by CM | June 2026 | Labels: Trump Policy, Visa Bulletin, Predictions

We are now squarely in Q3 of FY2026, and the June 2026 Visa Bulletin (Chart A) has handed us a mixed bag. EB-2 India took the most painful hit — a -10.5 month retrogression. EB-1 India also slid back -3.5 months. The one bright spot is EB-3 India creeping forward by +1 month and EB-3 China by +1.5 months. Note that Chart B remains suspended — so USCIS is using Chart A dates for all filing and approval purposes this month. Data source: DOS Visa Bulletin June 2026, and my own tracking spreadsheet going back to FY2020.

TL;DR — June 2026 Snapshot + July Predictions

Category	Current (Jun 2026)	Predicted (Jul 2026)	Signal
EB-1 India	15 Dec 2022	*01 Dec 2022*	High Retrogression Risk
EB-2 India	01 Sep 2013	*15 Oct 2013*	Slight Recovery Possible
EB-3 India	15 Dec 2013	*15 Jan 2014*	Slow Advance
EB-1 China	01 Apr 2023	*15 Apr 2023*	Modest Advance
EB-2 China	01 Sep 2021	*01 Nov 2021*	Benefiting from Ban
EB-3 China	01 Aug 2021	*15 Sep 2021*	Advancing

Bottom line: The travel ban is compressing EB-1 India via retrogression while paradoxically opening space in China and ROW categories — visa recapture logic is the key mechanism here.

Now layer on top of this the Trump travel ban covering approximately 40 countries. This is not a minor footnote. When nationals of banned countries — many of whom are in the ROW (rest of world) bucket or hold dual nationalities — cannot enter the US or cannot complete consular processing, their visa numbers go unused. The question everyone is asking me is: where do those unused numbers go? The answer, as I will walk through below, has direct consequences for your priority date.

I want to be upfront that we are in a gray area here. USCIS and DOS have not published a clear mechanism explaining how ban-related visa number savings are being redistributed. What I am offering below is an educated guess based on historical spillover behavior, current VB velocity data, and the Trump boost multiplier I have been applying in my model — currently at 1.25x for categories that appear to be indirectly absorbing freed-up numbers.

June 2026 Visa Bulletin + July Predictions (All Countries)

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Mon, 18 May 2026 03:12:54 +0000

TLDR — Skip Here First

Category	Jun 2026	Jul Prediction	Signal
EB-1 India	15 Dec 2022	*01 Jan 2023*	Caution
EB-1 China	01 Apr 2023	*15 Apr 2023*	Advancing
EB-2 India	01 Sep 2013	*01 Nov 2013*	Advancing
EB-2 China	01 Sep 2021	*01 Nov 2021*	Advancing
EB-3 India	15 Dec 2013	*01 Feb 2014*	Advancing
EB-3 China	01 Aug 2021	*15 Sep 2021*	Advancing
EB-1/2/3 ROW	Current	*Current*	Stable

One-line takeaway: EB-1 India just retrogressed 3.5 months and EB-2 India retrogressed 10.5 months in June — but with Q4 spillover approaching and Trump-era processing boosts, July should see modest forward movement across the board. Chart B remains suspended.

Setting the Stage: FY2026 Q3

June 2026 is the third month of Q3 in Fiscal Year 2026. That matters a lot. USCIS has been burning through the annual 140,000 employment-based visa numbers at a pace set partly by the Trump administration's processing acceleration — what I call the 1.25x boost factor relative to prior baseline velocity. By June, roughly 75% of the FY2026 annual allocation has been used or allocated. Demand pressure is real, and it is showing up directly in the bulletin.

The June 2026 Visa Bulletin (Chart A) dropped two notable retrogressions. EB-1 India moved back 3.5 months — from roughly mid-April 2023 to 15 Dec 2022. EB-2 India took a harder hit of 10.5 months, landing at 01 Sep 2013. These are not small adjustments. They signal that USCIS hit a demand ceiling for Indian-born applicants in those categories ahead of schedule. Meanwhile, EB-3 India and EB-3 China both crept forward — +1 month and +1.5 months respectively. Small, but directionally positive.

All data in this post comes directly from the DOS June 2026 Visa Bulletin, Chart A (Final Action Dates). Chart B (Dates for Filing) remains suspended — DOS has not activated it this month. I am using my Oppenheim behavior modeling engine, velocity trends, and the FY quarter context to build the July 2026 predictions below. As always, take the predictions with a grain of salt — they are educated guesses, not guarantees.

June 2026 Visa Bulletin — Chart A Final Action Dates

Cat	India	China	Phil.	ROW	Δ India	Δ China
EB-1	15 Dec 2022	01 Apr 2023	Current	Current	-3.5 mo	+1.2 mo
EB-2	01 Sep 2013	01 Sep 2021	Current	Current	-10.5 mo	—
EB-3	15 Dec 2013	01 Aug 2021	01 Aug 2023	01 Jun 2024	+1 mo	+1.5 mo
EB-5	01 May 2022	22 Sep 2016	Current	Current	—	—

🚨 Retrogression Alert: EB-2 India retrogressed 10.5 months. EB-1 India retrogressed 3.5 months. USCIS using Final Action Dates only — Chart B suspended. DOS warns further retrogression possible before Sep 30, 2026.

Analysis: Why Did This Happen?

The annual EB visa allocation is 140,000 visas. India gets roughly 9,800 per year (7% country cap). But the demand queue for EB-2 India alone is estimated at over 300,000 pending applicants. When USCIS processes cases faster than usual — as they have been under the current administration's processing boost — they burn through the available numbers sooner. That is exactly what happened here.

EB-2 India was running at an unsustainably fast pace for Q3 FY2026. DOS had to pull back the dates to prevent overshooting before the fiscal year ends on Sep 30. This is classic Oppenheim behavior — advance aggressively in Q1-Q2, then slam the brakes in Q3 when the numbers start running low.

Key Insight: EB-3 India (Dec 2013) is now 3 months ahead of EB-2 India (Sep 2013). This is unusual and creates a porting discussion. But switching categories requires a new PERM + new I-140. Same-employer EB3→EB2: cannot use experience gained at that employer. The GC Calculator shows the EB-2 vs EB-3 comparison for your specific PD.

For EB-3 India, the story is more positive. The +1 month advance to 15 Dec 2013 continues a steady trend. DOS appears to be managing EB-3 more carefully, avoiding the boom-bust cycle that hit EB-2.

China categories are holding steady. EB-2 China at Sep 2021 and EB-3 China at Aug 2021 have been relatively stable. ROW remains Current across all categories — no wait if you are not from India, China, or Philippines.

July 2026 Predictions

Here are my educated guesses for the July 2026 Visa Bulletin. After a major retrogression like this, DOS typically allows a modest bounce-back. July is the last bulletin before the critical Q4 (Jul-Sep) endgame.

Category	Current	Jul Prediction	Δ	Reasoning
EB-1 India	15 Dec 2022	*01 Jan 2023*	+0.5 mo	Post-retrogression recovery. Cautious advance expected.
EB-2 India	01 Sep 2013	*01 Nov 2013*	+2 mo	Bounce-back after 10.5mo retrogression. DOS typically advances 1.5-2mo after pulling back.
EB-3 India	15 Dec 2013	*01 Feb 2014*	+1.5 mo	Steady pace. No retrogression pressure on EB-3.
EB-2 China	01 Sep 2021	*01 Nov 2021*	+2 mo	Smaller backlog than India. Should advance comfortably.
EB-3 China	01 Aug 2021	*15 Sep 2021*	+1.5 mo	Tracking closely with EB-2 China. Gap narrowing.
ROW (all)	Current	*Current*	—	No backlog. Should remain Current through FY2026.

What This Means for Your PD

PD before Sep 2013 (EB-2 India): You are current. File I-485 now if you have not already. If already filed, your case is in the processing queue.

PD Sep 2013 to Jul 2014 (EB-2 India): You just went from current to not current. This is the hardest spot — you were so close. The GC Calculator can show you exactly when your date will become current again based on velocity and spillover projections.

PD 2015+ (EB-2 India): Long wait ahead. The exact timeline depends on multiple factors — spillover patterns, processing boost continuation, and demand dropout rates. Enter your PD in the GC Calculator for a personalized projection.

Note – Predictions are based on educated guess and is not guaranteed. Please take it with a grain of salt. This is not legal advice — consult an immigration attorney for your specific situation.

Drop a comment with your PD and category — I will try to give you a specific estimate.

Good Luck. - CM

March 2024 Visa Bulletin Summary: Key Insights, Predictions and Updates

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Sun, 24 Mar 2024 17:57:00 +0000

March 2024 Visa Bulletin Summary: Key Insights and Updates

Introduction:

The March 2024 Visa Bulletin, released by the U.S. Department of State, provides crucial information on immigrant visa availability for individuals seeking permanent residency in the United States. This summary highlights key insights and updates from the latest bulletin, offering valuable insights for immigrants, employers, and immigration professionals.

Priority Date Movements:

A. FINAL ACTION DATES FOR EMPLOYMENT-BASED PREFERENCE CASES

The table below outlines the final action dates for various employment-based preference categories:

Employment-based	All Chargeability Areas Except Those Listed	China - mainland born	India	Mexico	Philippines
1st	C	15JUL22	01OCT20	C	C
2nd	22NOV22	01JAN20	01MAR12	22NOV22	22NOV22
3rd	08SEP22	01SEP20	01JUL12	08SEP22	08SEP22
Other Workers	08SEP20	01JAN17	01JUL12	08SEP20	01MAY20
4th	01DEC19	01DEC19	01DEC19	01DEC19	01DEC19
Certain Religious Workers	01DEC19	01DEC19	01DEC19	01DEC19	01DEC19
5th Unreserved (including C5, T5, I5, R5)	C	15DEC15	01DEC20	C	C
5th Set Aside: Rural (20%)	C	C	C	C	C
5th Set Aside: High Unemployment (10%)	C	C	C	C	C
5th Set Aside: Infrastructure (2%)	C	C	C	C	C

B. DATES FOR FILING OF EMPLOYMENT-BASED VISA APPLICATIONS

The table below reflects the dates for filing visa applications within a timeframe justifying immediate action in the application process:

Employment-based	All Chargeability Areas Except Those Listed	China - mainland born	India	Mexico	Philippines
1st	C	01JAN23	01JAN21	C	C
2nd	15FEB23	01JUN20	15MAY12	15FEB23	15FEB23
3rd	01FEB23	01JUL21	01AUG12	01FEB23	01JAN23
Other Workers	15DEC20	01JUN17	01AUG12	15DEC20	15MAY20
4th	01JAN20	01JAN20	01JAN20	01JAN20	01JAN20
Certain Religious Workers	01JAN20	01JAN20	01JAN20	01JAN20	01JAN20
5th Unreserved (including C5, T5, I5, R5)	C	01JAN17	01APR22	C	C
5th Set Aside: Rural (20%)	C	C	C	C	C
5th Set Aside: High Unemployment (10%)	C	C	C	C	C
5th Set Aside: Infrastructure (2%)	C	C	C	C	C

C. DATES FOR FILING OF FAMILY BASED VISA APPLICATIONS

The table below reflects the dates for filing family-based visa applications within a timeframe justifying immediate action in the application process:

Family-based	All Chargeability Areas Except Those Listed	China - mainland born	India	Mexico	Philippines
F1	C	01JAN23	01JAN21	C	C
F2A	C	C	C	C	C
F2B	C	C	C	C	C
F3	C	C	C	C	C
F4	C	C	C	C	C

Predictions:

Predictions for both Employment-Based (EB) and Family-Based categories are as follows:

Employment-Based (EB) Categories:

Category	Predictions
EB-1	Current priority dates are expected to remain stable or experience slight advancement due to ongoing demand for highly skilled professionals and individuals with extraordinary abilities.
EB-2	Priority dates are likely to see slight advancement or stability, reflecting continued demand for professionals with advanced degrees or exceptional abilities.
EB-3	Limited forward movement or even retrogression may occur in priority dates for skilled workers and professionals, particularly for oversubscribed countries, due to sustained demand.
EB-4	Priority dates are expected to remain current or experience slight advancement, indicating stable visa availability for certain special immigrants.
EB-5	Current priority dates are anticipated to be maintained, reflecting ongoing demand for immigrant investors.

Family-Based Categories:

</ thead>

Category	Predictions
F1	Priority dates may continue to advance gradually, reflecting ongoing demand for family-sponsored immigrant visas.
F2A	Priority dates are expected to remain current, indicating consistent visa availability for this category.
F2B	Priority dates may see modest advancement, reflecting ongoing demand but with relatively stable visa availability.
F3	Priority dates may advance gradually, reflecting sustained demand for family-sponsored immigrant visas.
F4	Priority dates are anticipated to advance slowly, reflecting limited visa availability and high demand in this category.

This summary provides an overview of the expected trends and movements in both Employment-Based and Family-Based visa categories, based on the information provided in the March 2024 Visa Bulletin.

July 2012 Visa Bulletin Predictions - EB Category

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Sat, 02 Jun 2012 17:33:00 +0000

July 2012 Visa Bulletin will be first bulletin for Q4 - FY 2012. Here is the prediction for July 2012 Visa Bulletin. We should see following movements in each category as long as USCIS/DOS would use visa numbers for each category as per statutory allocations.

July 2012 Visa Bulletin Predictions

EB3- China could advance to 15 September 2005
EB3 – ROW and EB3-Mexico could advance to 08 July 2006
EB3 – Philippines could advance to 15 June 2006
EB2 for ROW, Mexico and Philippines could see cut-off date of 01 August 2011 – 01 November 2011 in coming bulletins.
EB3-India could advance to 22 September 2002.
EB2-India and EB2-China would stay ‘Unavailable’ until September 2012.

Note – Predictions are based on educated guess and is not guaranteed. Please take it with a grain of salt. EB2-ROW/Others date are determined based on discussion with attorney friend.

June 2012 Visa Bulletin Predictions - EB Category

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Sun, 29 Apr 2012 22:14:00 +0000

June 2012 Visa Bulletin will be third bulletin for Q3 - FY 2012. Here is the prediction for June 2012 Visa Bulletin. We should see following movements in each category as long as USCIS/DOS would use visa numbers for each category as per statutory allocations.

June 2012 Visa Bulletin Predictions

EB3- China could advance to 15 June 2005
EB3 – ROW, EB3-Philippines, and EB3-Mexico could advance to 22 May 2006
EB2 will be current for ROW, Mexico and Philippines at least for this quarter.
EB3-India could advance to 15 September 2002.
EB2-India and EB2-China would stay at 15^th August 2007 in June and July visa bulletin. At this point, DOS has announced that available visas for EB2 China and India have been exhausted. So far I am still hopeful of some movement in August or September visa bulletin for this category. Again, movement will be dependent on what is status of EB1 and EB2-ROW backlog at that point. Expect movement to atleast PD March 2008 or beyond in October 2012 visa bulletin.

Note – Predictions are based on educated guess and is not guaranteed. Please take it with a grain of salt.

May 2012 Visa Bulletin Predictions - EB Category

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Wed, 28 Mar 2012 00:14:00 +0000

May 2012 Visa Bulletin will be the second bulletin for Q3 - FY 2012. Here is the prediction for May 2012 Visa Bulletin. We should see following movements in each category as long as USCIS/DOS would use visa numbers for each category as per statutory allocations.

May 2012 Visa Bulletin Predictions

EB3- China could advance to 22 March 2005
EB3 – ROW, EB3-Philippines, and EB3-Mexico could advance to 22 April 2006 (Mostly 22 April 2006. It could just be in borderline for 01 May 2006 if we are lucky).
EB2 will be current for ROW, Mexico and Philippines.
EB3-India could advance to 08 September 2002.
EB2-India and EB2-China would retrogress to 15^th August 2007 in coming bulletin. Now since we have all the demand to satisfy annual quota for this fiscal year, dates will remain stagnant up to July visa bulletin. In August visa bulletin, we may see 3-4 months movement and then in September it will be March 2008, with final resting point for cut-off date at May-June 2008 or more in October-December visa bulletins. We can crunch exact numbers once next inventory data is released .i.e. in May time frame. As of now it seems that FY 2013 will take care of at least first half of 2009 or little more; FY 2014 is the year we are looking for 2010 PDs.

Note – Predictions are based on educated guess and is not guaranteed. Please take it with a grain of salt.

Adjusted EB2-India & China FY 2012 Retrogression Estimation based on I-485 Receipt Data

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Sun, 26 Feb 2012 23:25:00 +0000

Based on newly released USCIS Receipts and Approvals for Q1-FY 2012, we would like to adjust the estimation of retrogression for FY 2012 for EB2-India & China Category. This time we were fooled by USCIS January 2012 Inventory which in reality is nothing but a muck of mislaid data. Either USCIS inventory was incomplete in terms of November 2011 and December 2011 to an error of greater than 50% or currently released document has some error. Most likely at this point January Inventory looks incomplete not only with respect to December 2011 visa bulletin movement data but to great extent to November 2011 data. In any case, at this time we feel dejected to outline that we are back to square-one where we started for FY 2012. If any of this is accurate to 80-90%, we are talking about severe retrogression.

Visa Usage or Approvals from the released data
Currently released data suggests that atleast 31,541 visas were used in Q1-FY 2012. This looks reasonable based on estimated visa use that was published few months ago.

Estimated EB2-IC visa use upto Q1-FY 2012 is 8000+4805 (PWMB). Also for EB3 category at least 15% or more visa is used by Consular Processed (CP) cases, so monthly visa use is 0.85*3367 = 2861 per month at USCIS. For 3 months it becomes, 2831*3 = 8,493. EB4 could have used 2495 or more in Q1 and EB5 has used 2864 based on released data. Estimated from January Inventory, EB1 and EB2-ROW-M-P use was around 3,580 and 2321 respectively.

Visa use in Q1-FY2012 = 3580 + 8000+ 4805 + 2321+ 8493 + 2495 + 2864 = 32,558 (approx 31,541)

EB2-IC Receipts from the released data
Most disturbing and contradicting to January Inventory data is the total EB category receipts issued in Q1-FY 2012. YTY we had seen that total I-485 EB Receipts at TSC and NSC were 27% - 33% of total I-485 receipts at these service centers. Well current data suggests that when EB2-IC cut-off dates were moved so much in last 6 bulletins, this is no longer true. EB category receipts due to such huge movement now estimates as large as 50%-60% of total I-485 receipts at these centers.

Based on EB receipts for each month as per currently released data, and current trackitt trend for filings in each month for Q1-FY 2012, EB2-India & China demand estimate has almost doubled than what was estimated earlier just because of I-485 EB receipts now representing 50%-60% of total receipts and not 27%-33% anymore. Tabulated results is based on taking EB2-IC trackitt data as it is and assuming EB1 and EB2-ROW-M-P representation is 1/4th of that of EB2-IC on trackitt. See this articl e for reference on how this is calculated.

EB1 and EB2-ROW-M-P estimation above jives well with new applications estimated from January Inventory. Estimation from January 2012 Inventory falls atleast 20% low again because of incompleteness.

One fallacy to above method is that we have not considered any EB3 to EB2 Porting and any new receipts for EB4 and EB5. Based on inventory EB3 to EB2 Porting is not more than 1800, and EB4 & EB5 demand is around 622+223 = 845. Assuming incompleteness of inventory, if we increase this number by 50% more, it comes out to be 845*1.5 = 1267. Though good chunk of EB4 and EB5 cases are CP cases we can ignore it at this point and assume all 1267 were filed at USCIS. Out of new EB2-IC cases, there will be few PWMBs too, which account for these receipts. Such number should be part of October receipts. Considering all these errors, EB2-IC demand for Q1-FY2012 comes out to be 23,787 - 1800 - 1267 = 20720. This is atleast 8000-9000 higher than 11,563 what we estimated from January Inventory. This tells us that January Inventory is totally bogus with respect to EB2-IC demand and should be ignored. Again if these are not EB2-IC numbers then any reduction in here should be accounted by increase in EB1, EB2-ROW, EB4 or EB5 demand, which by all means suggest less contributed spillover to EB2-IC. Based on this March 2008 PD total demand for this year becomes

EB2-IC demand March 2008 = 8000+ 20,720 + 1,800 = 30,520

Now based on current EB1 and EB2-ROW demand, we are estimating that spillover for this year can be as high as 35,500 and as low as 28,800. So it still means June-July 2008 PD can receive green card this FY 2012. My personal opinion is that due to long processing time at USCIS, DOS may not have to retrogress dates all the way to June-July 2008 and then move them again in FY 2013.So this means we can still see October 2008 PD to be current for the remaning fiscal year. USCIS may approve cases more likely on basis of PD than receipt date. EB1 demand will be a gate keeper for this year based on USCIS efforts to reduce this huge inventory. EB2-ROW-M-P demand may yield more spillover compared to last year.

Summary

USCIS inventory was not indicative of real EB2-IC demand. We were fooled by those low numbers. Current Receipt data suggests that EB2-IC demand upto March 2008 PD is capable to use 30,520 visa numbers.

PD June-July 2008 should expect Green Card this year with dates still hovering around October 2008 - November 2008 incase DOS decides to avoid severe retrogression and moving dates again in FY 2013.

PERM to Inventory conversion factor in our Prediction for EB2 Category for FY 2012 is NOT total PERM to Inventory factor but is EB2-IC PERM to Inventory Factor from this link.

Based on currently released new receipts data, PERM to Inventory Conversion Factor for realistic case is 1.40 upto March 2008. OR Total PERM to I-485 Inventory Factor of 1.00. Going forward this number can fall down to 1.10-1.20 for PD 2008 to PD 2009.

Spillover including annual quota expected for this year is 28,800 - 35,000

Based on this movement for EB2-IC in April 2012 is a concern. Really it is time to stall or retrogress at this point. If any date movement may happen next month, it would be mere luck. All those current should file their applications as soon as they can.

April 2012 Visa Bulletin Predictions - EB Category

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Tue, 21 Feb 2012 01:03:00 +0000

April 2012 Visa Bulletin will be the first bulletin for Q3 - FY 2012. Here is the prediction for April 2012 Visa Bulletin. We should see following movements in each category as long as USCIS/DOS would use visa numbers for each category as per statutory allocations.

April 2012 Visa Bulletin Predictions

EB3- China could advance to 08 February 2005
EB3 – ROW, EB3-Philippines, and EB3-Mexico could advance to 08 April 2006.
EB2 will be current for ROW, Mexico and Philippines.
EB3-India could advance to 01 September 2002.
EB2-India and EB2-China could see 0 months - 3.5 months movement in coming bulletin. Movement in coming months solely depends on how demand for last two visa bulletin. has picked up so far. If January and February bulletin demand for EB2-IC has bloomed as we expected (i.e. based on trackitt trend), then we may not see any substantial movement. Any withered demand means few months movement for EB2-IC.

At this time based on current demand, everyone with PD until October-November 2008 should feel good about receiving green card this fiscal year. This is all based on receiving 30K spillover including annual quota from EB1, EB2-ROW and EB5, which looks plausible. based on current demand. Dates might not retrogress in this bulletin. We may expect stall or retrogression in May-June VB.

Note – Predictions are based on educated guess and is not guaranteed. Please take it with a grain of salt.

Visa Bulletin: March 2012

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Thu, 16 Feb 2012 18:08:00 +0000

March 2012 Visa Bulletin for the FY 2012 was released few days ago. March visa bulletin brought 4 months movement for the EB-2 China and EB-2 India categories, thus moving it to the most favorable cut-off dates ever. EB3 categories advanced as expected with EB3-ROW-M-P moving by 3 weeks. EB3-India and China moved as expected by1 week and 4 weeks. All other categories are current. Family Based category saw some movement.

Employment-Based (EB)
Below is a summary of the March 2012 Visa Bulletin with respect to employment-based petitions:

EB-1 remains current across the board.
EB-2 remains current for EB-2 ROW, Mexico and Philippines. EB-2 India and EB-2 China both move forward by four (4) months to May 1, 2010.
EB-3 ROW, EB-3 Mexico and EB-3 Philippines move forward by only three (3) weeks to March 15, 2006, EB-3 China moves forward by one (1) month to January 1, 2005, while EB-3 India moves forward by only one (1) week to August 22, 2002.
The “other worker” category remains unchanged (again) at April 22, 2003 for China. It moves forward by three (3) weeks for ROW, Mexico and Philippines to March 15, 2006. It also moves forward by one (1) week for India to August 22, 2002.

Family-Based (FB)

Below is a summary of the March 2012 Visa Bulletin with respect to family-based petitions:

FB-1 moves forward (again, for sixth consecutive month). FB-1 ROW, China and India all move forward by five (5) weeks to February 1, 2005. FB-1 Mexico moves forward by one (1) week to May 1, 1993 and FB-1 Philippines moves forward by one (1) month to June 22, 1997.
FB-2A moves forward by six (6) weeks to July 22, 2009 for ROW, China, India, and Philippines. FB-2A Mexico moves forward by seven (7) weeks to July 1, 2009.
FB-2B ROW, China and India move forward by one (1) month to November 15, 2003. FB-2B Mexico remains unchanged at December 1, 1992. FB-2B Philippines moves forward by five (5) weeks to December 8, 2001.

VISA AVAILABILITY IN THE COMING MONTHS

EB Categories
No Notes

FB Categories

No Notes

Demand Data

EB2-India & China Movement

It is obvious that EB2-India & China are reaching their high mark point for this year. Currently released inventory suggests that incoming demand for EB2-IC is low compared to what was anticipated based on PERM data. There is apparently lot of multiple PERM filings either to port to EB2,because of job changes, due to more than one filing per family or abandonment of cases during 2008 and 2009. We know that inventory has not covered entire demand for December and January Visa Bulletin movement, and it should be assumed complete only regard to demand upto November visa bulletin. We believe that current movement upto March Visa Bulletin would be sufficient for current year's demand. Please see where demand is heading for current fiscal year based on trackitt demand.

Ratio of representation for EB2-IC on trackitt to inventory number suggests that one trackitt case will convert into 8.6 cases in I-485 inventory. This is based on numbers that were seen in new inventory up to Oct-November visa movement i.e. 5,603. This when compared to trackitt corresponds to 651 cases. Ratio of these two numbers is 8.6. If we will use same ratio for movements upto February visa bulletin, i.e. PD 01 Jan 2010, demand comes upto 33,220. This number corresponds to PERM to Inventory factor of 0.42. This is very low multiple PERM factor but so far is looking very plausible. I will not be surprised if retrogression that will happen in May-June 2012 will be minimum.

YTY trackitt ratio had usually held upto 13 vs 8.6; using ratio of 13 gives us PERM to Inventory factor of 0.65. So in any case when retrogression will happen, it will not go beyond Priority Date November 2008. But how things are looking so far, retrogression may not happen or if will happen will only be until later months of 2009. Since past month USCIS approval rate has picked up. If rate will drop then we might not even see any retrogression. It is important that USCIS should use visa numbers at consistent rate. Any slack over there means Consular cases are only hope. Of course, retrogression majorly also depends upon how EB1 and EB2-ROW approvals will pick up with time and if we can still receive spillover of 30K. Anything less than this means more retrogression. I believe now it is the right time to divert our focus more towards EB1, EB2-ROW and EB5 demand.

EB2-IC is now at a point where it may stall or just move by two months at most in April 2012. May 2012 should expect stall and worst to worst case little retrogression. Any one with PD before November 2008 should feel confident about receiving green card this year.

EB3-ROW-M-P Movement

EB3-ROW-M-P movement based on demand data is 2350 visa numbers worth month to month. We need 32,150 visa numbers from today to cross PD to January 2007. Constantly around 1200-1600 new cases are added to the inventory month to month. At current rate, it will take 12 months to cross January 2007, which means for FY 2012, PD cut -off date may only reach around 08 August 2006. Interesting thing to note is that EB3-ROW demand is in 18000 vs EB3-P demand which 11,000. EB3-P demand is really slowing down movement for EB3-ROW.

EB3-India &China Movement

EB3-India is currently moving as expected. There is some eventual EB3 to EB2 porting going on at rate of 250 cases per month based on demand data. If this will continue then we can again see some rapid movement for EB3-I in later part of the year, especially in August-September 2012. EB3-China is moving very well with at least 4-6 weeks movement each month. We expect this movement to continue for rest of the year.

Prediction for EB2 Category for FY 2012 - Employment Based Green Card

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Mon, 06 Feb 2012 06:03:00 +0000

Here is the Prediction for EB2 Category cutoff date retrogression for Fiscal Year 2012. Basis for this prediction is simple calculations (see below) which is done based on available data i.e. PERM data published by DOL, I-485 Inventory data, latest trend on Trackitt for EB1 & EB2 cases and other published data by USCIS. Demand data for each dependent category is predicted and explained in calculations below. This data is further used to calculate spillover that would be available for EB2 category. Retrogression is estimated based on visa allotment available each year for each country and total spillover that is expected in FY 2012. In each case, Optimistic, Realistic and Worst-Case scenario is estimated.

Based on newly released USCIS Receipts and Approvals for Q1-FY 2012, we would like to adjust the estimation of retrogression for FY 2012 for EB2-India & China Category. See this article for detail.

Summary of article

USCIS inventory was not indicative of real EB2-IC demand. We were fooled by those low numbers. Current Receipt data suggests that EB2-IC demand upto March 2008 PD is capable to use 30,520 visa numbers.

PD June-July 2008 should expect Green Card this year with dates still hovering around October 2008 - November 2008 incase DOS decides to avoid severe retrogression and moving dates again in FY 2013.

PERM to Inventory conversion factor in our Prediction for EB2 Category for FY 2012 is NOT total PERM to Inventory factor but is EB2-IC PERM to Inventory Factor from this link.

Based on currently released new receipts data, PERM to Inventory Conversion Factor for realistic case is 1.40 upto March 2008. OR Total PERM to I-485 Inventory Factor of 1.00. Going forward this number can fall down to 1.10-1.20 for PD 2008 to PD 2009.

Spillover expected for this year is 28,800 - 35,000

Based on this movement for EB2-IC in April 2012 is a concern. Really it is time to stall or retrogress at this point. If any date movement may happen next month, it would be mere luck. All those current should file their applications as soon as they can.

EB2-IC PERM to Inventory factor is a User ENTERED' field and can be changed accordingly.

You can also play with EB1, EB2-ROW-M-P, EB4 and EB5 demand to get your own estimate. Please read this article to estimate their respective demand.

Estimation on Retrogression - Last Updated - 26 February 2012

We do not expect to achieve any spillover from Family-Based category.

Detailed analysis on Visa Demand data for each category could be seen below in the calculations.

You can enter porting and visa demand for each category in 'User ENTERED' box for your Priority date, and see if your PD would be current with those assumptions.

This Prediction will be updated as and when more data is published - Last Updated 26 February 2012

Notes

Understanding Spillover

Spill Across (SA): It is a horizontal reallocation of visas within a category. (Unused number from EB2 ROW will be allotted to EB2 -India and China)

Fall Down (FD) : It is the vertical reallocation of visas between categories (eg: unused numbers from eb1 go to eb2....) Unused visa numbers in a higher preference level can "fall-down" to lower preference categories. For example, excess EB1 numbers can "fall-down" to EB2.

Fall Up (FU): Unused visa numbers in EB4 and EB5 can "fall-up" to EB1 then to EB2

EB2 - India-China Allocation (IC) - Visa numbers allotment to India and China EB2-category. This is 2,800 for each country or total 5,600.

How spillover works?

Unused EB4 and EB5 => EB1 => Unused EB1 => EB2 ROW => EB2 Retrogressed

Visa Allocation available each year

EB1 - 40,000

EB2 -ROW-P-M - 34,400

EB2-IC - 5,600

EB4 - 9,940

EB5 - 9,940

Calculations

January 2012 I-485 Pending Inventory - EB Category Visa Use

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Mon, 06 Feb 2012 04:51:00 +0000

USCIS released I-485 pending inventory upto 12 January 2012. Please note this inventory is only for Service Centers and Field Offices, and does not contain consular processing cases. Dependents are included. Here is a summary of the I-485 inventory when compared to October 2011 Inventory. This inventory is used to estimate the visa use during Q1 of FY 2012 and Projected Demand for FY 2012.Please note that one fallacy to using inventory to estimate demand is that it will not consider cases approved in less than 90 days.

EB1 demand : In general, EB1 is highly backlogged with atleast 15,583 applications still pending at Service Centers. Although this number looks big at first glance please do not worry. This is just a backlog that USCIS will need to clear going forward. Rate of new application filings is very low and we can estimate at least 12,000 or more spillover from this category at current rate. This may change with time. It all depends how much USCIS will like to reduce it's inventory when crossing into FY 2013. Generally such number is around 8,000 year-to-year, and we have used this number to estimate our projected EB1 demand for FY 2012.

EB2-ROW-M-P demand - This category demand is little surprising at first. I am not sure if new demand is so low but we should remember that other significant demand for this category also comes from consular processed cases. Such demand is usually around 15%. Estimated Demand shown is only for USCIS and Field Offices. Usually year to year inventory for this category ends around 8,000 -10,000. We assumed 8,000 in our calculations.

If we will add 15% to the estimated demand, we can say that estimated FY 2012 EB2-ROW-M-P demand is around 1.15 * 22,379 = 25,735. From EB2-ROW-M-P, we can expect spillover around 34,200 - 25,735 = 8,465 or more

EB3-ROW-M-P demand - Visa use for for EB3-ROW-M-P is estimated from October 2011 to January 2012 inventory. Please see below.

One thing to note here is that only 5,042 visa numbers were used by EB3-ROW-M-P at USCIS. Total visa number available for 3 months is around 8,682. Remaining 3,640 were used by consulates abroad. This demand is around 40% for CP cases.We are still marching towards 08 August 2006 for this category.

EB2-IC demand - This section of the article will only cover EB2-India and China demand till PD July 31st, 2007. This demand is all inclusive of visa numbers that are/will be used upto this PD for current fiscal year (FY 2012). Demand from October 2011-January 2012 inventory estimates visa number used until Q1, cases still waiting for visa numbers and new EB3 to EB2 porting cases. Remaining demand after PD July 2007 is covered in "Predictions for EB2-India & China FY 2012".

Just based on inventory it seems that only 7,795 visa numbers were used in Q1-FY 2012. Total PWMB numbers are also very less compared to what we initially thought. PWMBs includes all PDs from May 2006- July 2007 (June VB-November VB) that are still pending since October 2011 inventory. Visa use for such cases will come from this year's quota. These 14,430 demand will be limiting factor for current year cut-off date on retrogression. Retrogression will be estimated is next article.

EB3- India - Inventory for EB3-India compared to last fiscal year reduced by 4884 (2803 annual limit + 2081 estimated porting and/or case abandonment upto January 2003). Minimum movement around 08 November 2002 is expected. Movement can be little more if more folks from November-December 2002 will port for this year.

EB4- demand - Last year, EB4 demand was high or at par, and hence no spillover was received from this category. For this year also we may assume that no spillover will be received.

EB5- demand - EB5 demand is similar level as last year and may yield around 3000-4000 unused visa numbers if similar demand is seen in FY 2012.

March 2012 Visa Bulletin Predictions - EB Category

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Wed, 25 Jan 2012 01:45:00 +0000

March 2012 Visa Bulletin will be the third bulletin for Q2 - FY 2012. Here is the prediction for March 2012 Visa Bulletin. We should see following movements in each category as long as USCIS/DOS would use visa numbers for each category as per statutory allocations.

March 2012 Visa Bulletin Predictions

EB3- China could advance to 22 December 2004
EB3 – ROW, EB3-Philippines, and EB3-Mexico could advance to 15 March 2006. EB3-ROW-M-P is still marching towards 8th August 2006 for current FY 2012.
EB2 will be current for ROW, Mexico and Philippines.
EB3-India could advance to 01 September 2002.
EB2-India and EB2-China could see 2 months- 6 months movement in coming bulletin. This may be last movement before cut-off date will stall until May Visa Bulletin. Dates may retrogress in May-June visa bulletin. Current data suggests retrogression will be reasonable around October 2008 or later. This may change with sudden increase in demand during later part of the year. Less retrogression may mean some rapid movement into late 2010 and early 2011 in FY 2013.

At this time, everyone filed in November-December 2011 should expect GC within USCIS suggested processing times. October 2011 applicants have already started seeing approvals.

Note – Predictions are based on educated guess and is not guaranteed. Please take it with a grain of salt.

EB Category FY 2012 Demand Upto January 2012 & Visa-Use Budget

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Tue, 24 Jan 2012 03:01:00 +0000

As per recently released USCIS Dashboard data on I-485 Receipts, here is the estimation of demand for each category for the month of Novemberr 2011. Please see this article to understand how to read this table. Based on past experience, usually 2x or 3x representation of EB2-IC on trackitt is fair estimation.

Visa Use Budget and Current EB category demand

From the available data, please see total EB category demand for visas upto January 2012 Visa Bulletin. We used the available data also to estimate Visa-use Budget upto January 2012.

Reference

Rollover Demand - See this articl e

October Demand - See this article

Please note that December and January Demand is calculated from trackitt using factor of 13. This is still an estimation. January 2012 demand is prorated from current data based on 31 days.

Visa use is calculated based on numbers that are used upto today. Please add all the numbers that are circled in red to estimate current visa use.

Visa use upto January 2012 = 6461 + 8000 + 4805 + 8012 + 1131 + 13468 = 41,877

Please note EB1 use looks high for this quarter only because of high rollover from previous year. If current trend continues then we can expect some more spillover from EB1. This may be the reason that Mr O. is quoting less demand for EB1. We would need to see if trackitt trend will shift due to more new EB1 filings as year progresses.. EB2-ROW demand does not make sense based on trackitt data. We will like to see more PERM data for Q1 FY 2012 to make this conclusion. Please note that we need more 60K demand from today to use EB annual quota completely. This is based on assumption that EB4 and EB5 may not yield much spillover. Low EB2-ROW consumption could be accounted to the delays in PERM processing. This may pick up with time.

If any of the trends for EB1 and EB2-ROW is true and will continue like this for few more months, retrogression is not possible until summer. Even if retrogression will happen in such case, I doubt it will go anywhere in late 2008 or may even stall at PD 2009. This looks too good to be true but for now this scenario cannot be discarded. Surprising data that unfolded due to trackitt trend is an eye-opener. Lets watch inventory and I-485 filing receipts for few more months. So far things looks good for EB2-IC (that means less retrogression).

Visa Bulletin - February 2012

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Tue, 10 Jan 2012 03:00:00 +0000

February 2012 Visa Bulletin for the FY 2012 was released yesterday. February visa bulletin brought 12 months remarkable movement for the EB-2 China and EB-2 India categories, thus moving it to the most favorable cut-off dates ever. EB3 categories advanced as expected with EB3-ROW-M-P moving by 3 weeks. EB3-India and China moved as expected by 2 weeks and 6 weeks. All other categories are current. Family Based category saw some movement.

Employment-Based (EB)
Below is a summary of the February 2012 Visa Bulletin with respect to employment-based petitions:

EB-1 remains current across the board.
EB-2 remains current for EB-2 ROW, Mexico and Philippines. EB-2 India and EB-2 China both move forward by twelve (12) months to January 1, 2010.
EB-3 ROW, EB-3 Mexico and EB-3 Philippines move forward by only three (3) weeks to February 22, 2006, EB-3 China moves forward by six (6) weeks to December 1, 2004, while EB-3 India moves forward by only one (1) week to August 15, 2002.
The “other worker” category remains unchanged (again) at April 22, 2003 for China. It moves forward by three (3) weeks for ROW, Mexico and Philippines to February 22, 2006. It also moves forward by two (2) weeks for India to August 15, 2002.

Family-Based (FB)

Below is a summary of the February 2012 Visa Bulletin with respect to family-based petitions:

FB-1 moves forward (again, for fifth consecutive month). FB-1 ROW, China and India all move forward by nine (9) weeks to December 22, 2004. FB-1 Mexico moves forward by one (1) week to April 22, 1993 and FB-1 Philippines moves forward by five (5) weeks to May 22, 1997.
FB-2A moves forward by six (6) weeks to June 8, 2009 for ROW, China, India, and Philippines. FB-2A Mexico moves forward by six (6) weeks to May 8, 2009.
FB-2B ROW, China and India move forward by five (5) weeks to October 15, 2003. FB-2B Mexico remains unchanged at December 1, 1992. FB-2B Philippines moves forward by two (2) months to November 1, 2001.

VISA AVAILABILITY IN THE COMING MONTHS

EB Categories

Employment First: Current

Employment Second:

China and India: Reports from U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) indicate that the rate of new filings for adjustment of status in recent months has been extremely low. This fact has required the continued rapid forward movement of the cut-off date, in an attempt to generate demand and maximize number use under the annual limit. Once the level of new filings or USCIS processing increases significantly, it will be necessary to slow or stop the movement of the cut-off. Readers are once again advised that an eventual need to retrogress the cut-off date is also a distinct possibility.

Employment Third:
Worldwide: up to one month
China: up to one month
India: up to two weeks
Mexico: up to one month
Philippines: up to one month

Employment Fourth: Current

Employment Fifth: Current

Please be advised that the above ranges are only estimates for what could happen during each of the next few months based on current applicant demand patterns. The determination of the actual monthly cut-off dates is subject to fluctuations in applicant demand which can occur at any time. Those categories with a “Current” projection will remain so for the foreseeable future.

FB Categories

Worldwide dates:
F1: three to five weeks
F2A: one to two months
F2B: three to four weeks
F3: one to three weeks
F4: up to one month

Demand Data

EB2-India & China Movement

Statement in Visa bulletin clearly tells that so far (i.e. 6th January 2012) upto third business day of January visa bulletin, rate of filings is very low and hence in order to ensure that enough demand is available for USCIS to process during spillover season for FY 2012, dates had moved rapidly.

Few things that can inferred from above statement is that filing upto December Visa Bulletin from October 2011 are very low than what DOS wants as an inventory for FY 2012. We initially expected cases upto December bulletin cut-off date to be around 16000 but current trackitt trend is pointing towards 9412 applications. (2200 I-485 filings from October Receipt Data and 166 trackitt applications gives factor of 13. From October-December 2011, trackitt has 724 pending cases, which converts into 724*13 = 9412 cases). This is too early to suggest that filings are low but we will continue to monitor I-485 Receipt data and trackitt trend for next few days.

DOS bulletin clearly mentions that once the level of new filings or USCIS processing increases significantly, it will be necessary to slow or stop the movement of the cut-off. So we can be rest assured that atleast for the next visa bulletin there will be no retrogression. Worst case it will stall. Presently we feel dates will move ahead for next bulletin but slowly. Expected movement can be anywhere from 2-5 months. Our attorney friend also feels movement will continue until April 2012.

As per Mr. Oppenheim, "Readers are once again advised that an eventual need to retrogress the cut-off date is also a distinct possibility." That eventual need will be seen around May 2012 visa bulletin i.e. in April. 2012 Dates will retrogress at some point but level of retrogression is difficult to determine without inventory data. Retrogression beyond December 2007 is not plausible. If demand continue to stay less, then June September 2008 could be considered as a high mark point for retrogression but for now lets stick to March-June 2008 as cut-off dates for FY 2012 until we see some more inventory numbers.

It was not clear from above analysis how annual visa use scenario looks like if we consider that trackitt trend from October 2011-December 2011 is resemblance of real demand. Please see numbers below

EB2-IC rough visa use estimation for FY 2012 that can be accounted upto 31st December 2011 is

Worst case = 8000* + 4807 (PWMB) before 15 April 2007 [see previous article] + 9412 (up to Dec VB filings) = 22,219

Best case = 8000* + 3485 (PWMB) before 15 April 2007 [see previous article] + 9412 (up to Dec VB filings) = 20,897

*- Used in approving EB2-IC backlog pre July 2007, after movements for October - November 2011 VB

EB3-ROW-M-P Movement

EB3-ROW-M-P movement based on demand data is 2350 visa numbers worth month to month. We need 32,400 visa numbers from today to cross PD to January 2007. At current rate, it will take 13 months to cross January 2007, which means for FY 2012, PD cut -off date may only reach around 22nd July 2006.

EB3-India & China Movement

EB2-India & China I-140 Demand (Yearly) based on DHS Released Report

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Sat, 31 Dec 2011 20:40:00 +0000

DHS on 29th December 2011 released a Citizenship and Immigration Services Ombudsman's recommendation to improve the quality in Extraordinary Ability and Other Employment based petition adjudication document (thank you to our reader who pointed to this release) - http://www.dhs.gov/xlibrary/assets/cisomb-recommendation_extraordinary_ability_petitions.pdf.

Some of the important relevant information can be found on Page 6 of the document which has plots for I-140 EB1 and EB-2 adjudications, including receipts and approvals for the Texas (TSC) and Nebraska (NSC) Service Centers. Report suggests that USCIS has experienced a slight downturn in EB-1 and EB-2 filings over the past five years for both EB-1 and EB-2 (note report does not include National Interest Waiver petitions), with approval and denial rates remaining consistent.

Key point to note here are -

EB1-A and EB1-B has high rate of denial rate, around 40% to 60% respectively.
EB2 I-140 approval rate is close to 100%
Respective I-140 filings for each fiscal year 2008, 2009, 2010 and 2011.
EB1 majority demand comes from EB1-C and not from EB1-A and EB1-B. Those filings do not look enormous.

Based on I-140 receipt data and 100% approval rate for EB2 petition, we tried to deduce some I-140 demand for PD 2008, 2009 and 2010.

EB2-India & China I-140 Demand based on released data

First of all we started after taking into account the PERMs that were approved for the FY 2008, FY 2009 and FY 2010.

Table I

We know from past analysis that usual break down of PERMs are 65%-35% for EB2-EB3 for India and China, and 50% for EB2-ROW-M-P. Based on this assumption and 100% approval rate, total I-140 demand for PERMs filed each fiscal year as follow.

Table II

If we now compare this data with recently released DHS document -http://www.dhs.gov/xlibrary/assets/cisomb-recommendation_extraordinary_ability_petitions.pdf. ; then I-140 Receipt numbers come very close to that suggested in above table. Approvals per released DHS document is as follow:

Table III

Reason for difference in two numbers can be accounted based on

First of all data is based on PERM approvals and some of demand from past fiscal year will roll-over into current fiscal year I-140 demand due to time lag between approval of PERM and filing of I-140s
Our assumption of 65% and 50% is flat and there may be a difference month to month.
Please note NIW applicants do not have to file PERM and hence that difference in negated here.

In addition to above numbers we should remember that lot of PERM cases that were filed with PD 2008 and PD 2009 were audited and were later approved in FY 2011. Few cases were approved in FY 2010 but we will neglect it for time being. If we will look at the EB2-IC and EB2-ROW-M-P breakup for FY 2011, we can see demand from PD 2008 and PD 2009 that will come from approvals in FY 2011.

This data comes from these articles
a) FY 2011 Q1-Q2 PERM data
b) FY 2011 Q3 PERM Approvals
c) FY 2011 Q4 PERM Approvals

Table IV

Please note that from above table it is difficult to deduce EB2 I-140 Receipts of 39000 reported in DHS document. Our estimation only shows 21,034 receipts. This is still a mystery to us.

EB2-India & China demand based on Priority Date
To calculate this for now we can neglect the difference that we see in DHS I-140 Receipts data (Table II) and I-140 demand data from PERM approvals (Table III), then we can roughly estimate total EB2-IC I-140 demand for each fiscal year just by using Table II. In order to capture FY 2011 approvals for old priority dates, we will add EB2-IC demand for each fiscal year to respective approvals in FY 2011. Based on above calculations, estimate for EB2-IC I-140 demand is (in red)

Table V

Some key points to note

I-140 Receipt demand will always lag PERM Approval times.
Difference between 29000 - 27588 = 1412 from Table II and Table III can account for some demand before October 2007.
It is assumed that most of the cases for certain priority date is approved in same fiscal year, so total demand upto end of FY 2010 will be same but real numbers for each PD may be off depending upon PERM approval time within that fiscal year.
These calculations do not consider any abandon cases due to individuals leaving country, getting lay-offed or re-filing due to long audit processing time, multiple PERM factors or double filings within a family. You can assume anything from 65%-85% for this as a multiple PERM factor.
This data does not consider any EB3-EB2 portings.
You can multiply this demand by 2.0 to 2.25 based on dependent factor to get estimate of I-485 demand.

EB2-India & China I-485 demand based on Priority Date

To above numbers you can add 8000 visa numbers that was approved for this fiscal year. Also add demand from August 2007-September 2007 plus 4000-5000 PWMBs overall and then based on your estimation of spillover calculate cut-off date on retrogression.

My take will be the option Multiple PERM factor of 75%.
EB2-IC demand , August-September 2007 from PERM data = 4,000
All PWMBs =                                                                         4,500
EB2-IC Approvals for backlogged cases =                                8,000
Demand until Sep 2008 =                                                         25,233
__________________________________________________________

Total I-485 Demand upto September 2008 = 41,733

Spillover + annual limit expected at most can be around 28,000

Cut-off Dates for this year can hover around March-June 2008 after retrogression for the best scenario.

PERM Approvals : Q4 FY 2011

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Thu, 29 Dec 2011 20:31:00 +0000

Here is a break down of PERM data (certified and certified_expired only) that was processed each month for FY 2011 Q4. Data has been broken down among different PDs that were approved per month in Q4 FY 2011. Total 16,937 PERMs were approved in Q4- FY 2011. In addition to this, see PERM database based on PD that is updated until FY 2011.

In addition, please see distribution of PERM approvals segregated based on country of chargeability and category. Most of the PERMs filed in FY 2011- Q4 belonged to India and ROW. It is becoming apparent that with passing time, most of the individuals are filing their cases in EB2 category.

Most importantly it should be noted that the EB2-ROW-M-P demand is progressing towards around 4000 PERMs per quarter, which if continued through out the year may convert into 4000*2*4 Qtr = 32000 I-485 applications for the fiscal year. This means spillover expected from EB2-ROW-M-P at this rate is 3000-7000 depending upon I-485 denial rate of 0%-15%.

I-485 Primary & Secondary Evidence - Country Specific for USCIS Adjudicators

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Fri, 23 Dec 2011 03:39:00 +0000

Commonly asked question is what to do when primary evidence of birth, marriage, divorce etc is not available. Here is the country specific I-485 Required documents for (AOS) or (CP). Immigration officers or Adjudicators are asked to refer to the list below before making any decision on RFE or NOID in case primary evidence is not submitted or established. Please select your country from the drop-down list to see specific secondary evidence and documents.

Burden of Proof and Standard of Proof

The burden is on the petitioner to establish that he or she is eligible for the benefit sought. This means that if an alien seeking a benefit has not shown eligibility, the application should be denied. The government is not called upon to make any showing of ineligibility until the alien has first shown that he is eligible. You may contrast this in your mind with a criminal case or with a removal hearing in which the government must first prove its case.

Evidential Standards

Because the strict rules of evidence used in judicial proceedings do not apply in administrative proceedings, a wide range of oral or documentary evidence may be used in a visa petition proceeding or other immigration benefit application proceeding. A copy of a public record (birth certificate, marriage or divorce certificates, adoption decrees, and similar documents) is admissible if the person having custody over the original records has certified the copy. For example, a copy of a divorce decree is admissible if the clerk of the court has certified the copy. A regulation, provides that a certified copy of a foreign public record (other than a Canadian record) should also be authenticated by a U.S. Foreign Service officer or, if the country is a party to the Hague Convention on abolition of legalization requirements for foreign public records, by a higher-level official of the foreign country.

Best Evidence Rule

In adjudicating a petition or application for a benefit, immigration officer will often deal with evidence and facts which are of a documentary nature, such as marriage dates, dates of birth, death, divorce, criminal records, school records, etc. This often brings into play what is known as the "best evidence rule.” While the best evidence rule is not strictly applicable in an administrative proceeding, IOs should adhere to it as closely as they can. The rule states that where the contents of a document are at issue in a case, the document itself must be introduced rather than secondary evidence as to its content.

Primary and Secondary Evidence

Closely related to the best evidence rule is the concept of primary and secondary evidence. Primary evidence is evidence which on its face proves a fact. For example, the divorce certificate is primary evidence of a divorce. Secondary evidence is evidence which makes it more likely that the fact sought to be proven by the primary evidence is true, but cannot do so on its own face, without any external reference. In the above example, church records showing that an individual was divorced at a certain time would be secondary evidence of the divorce.

Adjudicators will often encounter situations in which primary evidence is unavailable. This gives rise to a presumption of ineligibility , which is the applicant or petitioner’s burden to overcome. A petitioner or applicant cannot simply assert that the primary evidence does not exist. The absence of a primary record, instead, must be proven either:

By a written statement from the appropriate issuing authority attesting to the fact that no record exists or can be located, or that the record sought was part of some segment of records which were lost or destroyed; or
By evidence (such as an affidavit) "that repeated good faith attempts were made to obtain the required document or record."

To check country-specific information on availability of various foreign documents see below drop-down menu that is used by Immigration Officers. If this Appendix shows that a particular record is generally not available in a particular country, USCIS may accept secondary evidence without requiring the written statement from the issuing authority.

COUNTRY SPECIFIC REQUIRED DOCUMENTS

General List of Commonly Required Documents

Birth Certificates

You (and any family members immigrating with you to the United States) must obtain an original birth certificate issued by the official custodian of birth records in your country of birth, showing your date of birth, place of birth, and parentage.

The certificate must contain the:

Your date of birth
Your place of birth
Names of both parents
Indication by the appropriate authority that it is an extract from the official records

Unobtainable birth certificates

If your birth record is not obtainable for any reason, a certified statement must be obtained from the appropriate government authority explaining why your birth record is unavailable. You must also submit secondary evidence such as:

A baptismal certificate that contains the date and place of birth, as well as both parents names (providing the baptism took place shortly after birth)
An adoption decree for an adopted child
An affidavit from a close relative, preferably your mother, stating the date and place of birth, both parents names, and your mother’s maiden name.

Note: An affidavit executed before an official authorized to take oaths or affirmations must also be provided.

SAMPLE AFFIDAVIT

AFFIDAVIT BY Mr. xxxxxx (FATHER NAME) & Mrs.xxxxxxx (MOTHER NAME)

Re: [YOUR FULL NAME]

I, Mr. [FATHER FULL NAME] & Mrs. [MOTHER FULL NAME], here by depose and say:

1. Our full and complete address is xxxxxxxxxxx

2. That I, FATHER'S FULL NAME Age XXX, was born on MM/DD/YYY in the town/city of xxxxxxxx

3. That I, MOTHER'S FULL NAME Age XXX, was born on MM/DD?/YYY in the town/city of xxxxxxxx

4. We got married on MM/DDYYY in the city of XXXXXX, COUNTRY.

5. We, FATHER'S & MOTHER'S FULL NAME are parents of the following children:

a. YOUR FULL NAME born on MM/DD/YY; and

b. YOUR SIBLINGS NAME born on MM/DD/YYYY

6. [YOUR FULL NAME] was born in CITY, STATE, COUNTRY

7. This affidavit is being submitted because official full name of [YOUR FULL NAME] was not [mentioned] OR [registered] OR [OTHER REASON] in the birth certificate at the time of birth. [His/Her] Full Name is [YOUR FULL NAME] /OR/ [YOUR FULL NAME] birth was not registered because [reason].

I declare under penalty of perjury, that the foregoing is a true and correct statement.

_________________________
FATHER NAME and signature

_________________________
MOTHER NAME and signature

More specific information for each country can be seen after selecting your country above.

Marriage Certificates

Who needs to submit marriage certificates?
If you are married, you must obtain an original marriage certificate, or a certified copy, bearing the appropriate seal or stamp of the issuing authority.

Note: Marriage certificates from certain countries are unavailable. More specific information for each country can be seen after selecting your country above.

Court and Prison Records

If you were convicted of a crime, you must obtain a certified copy of each court record and prison record, regardless of the fact that you may have subsequently been granted amnesty, a pardon or other act of clemency.
Court records should include:

Complete information about the circumstances of the crime
The disposition of the case, including sentence, fines or other penalties imposed

Marriage Termination Documentation

Who needs to submit marriage termination documentation?
If you were previously married, you must obtain evidence of the termination of EACH prior marriage. Evidence must be in the form of original documents issued by an official authority, or certified copies bearing the appropriate seal or stamp of the issuing authority, such as:

FINAL divorce decree
Death certificate
Annulment papers

Deportation Documentation

Who needs to submit deportation documents?
If you have been previously deported or removed from the United States at government expense, you must obtain Form I-212, Permission to Reapply After Deportation, from the U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Service, or from a U.S. Embassy or Consulate, and follow the instructions on that form.

Military Records

Who needs to submit military records?
If you served in the military forces of any country, you must obtain a copy of your military record.
Note: Military records from certain countries are unavailable.
More specific information for each country can be seen after selecting your country above.

Petitioner Documents

Who needs to submit petitioner documents?
If you are applying for an IR5 (Parent of a U.S. Citizen) visa, you are required to provide:

Original or certified copy of your Petitioner’s birth certificate
Original or certified copy of your Petitioner’s marriage certificate from the Petitioner’s current and all previous marriages.

If you are applying for a F4 (Brother or Sister of a U.S. Citizen) visa you are required to provide:

Original or certified copy of your Petitioners birth certificate.

Photocopy of Valid Passport Biographic Data Page

Who needs to submit a photocopy of their passport?
The applicant and each family member accompanying the applicant must submit a photocopy of the biographic data page from their respective valid passport.
More specific information for each country can be seen after selecting your country above.

Photographs

You must submit two identical color photographs. Review Photograph Requirements for size specifications and more information.

October 2011 EB Demand from I-485 Receipt Data

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Wed, 21 Dec 2011 22:17:00 +0000

As per recently released USCIS Dashboard data on I-485 Receipts, here is the estimation of demand for each category for the month of October 2011. Please see this article to understand how to read this table. Based on past experience, usually 2x or 3x representation of EB2-IC on trackitt is fair estimation.

EB2-IC rough demand estimation that can be accounted until October 2011 is

Worst case = 8000* + 4807 (PWMB) before 15 April 2007 [see previous article] + 2679 (PWMB) from 15 April 07 - 15 July 2007 = 15,486

Best case = 8000* + 3485 (PWMB) before 15 April 2007 + 2200 (PWMB) from 15 April 07 - 15 July 2007 = 13,685

*- Used in approving EB2-IC backlog, after movements for October - November 2011 VB

EB2-IC Visa Bulletin Movements FY 2012 - Is this how Mr. Oppenheim thinks?

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Mon, 19 Dec 2011 23:26:00 +0000

We looked into if there is any analytical correlation between movements that Mr. Oppenheim did last year for Family Based Category (F2A) and current movement that we saw with EB2-India and China for Employment Based Category. Is there any correlation or equation or factor that can determine how Mr. Oppenheim would think in absence of demand or visible demand in case number of filings that he is receiving or available adjudicated case cases are less? Or if we can formulate a mathematical expression that outlines his approach to move dates. That is when we started digging into this.

Edited - December 20, 2011

We started looking at the movement that Mr. Oppenheim did for Family-Based Category last year in FY 2010 and FY 2011 to see how he moved the dates and then retrogressed them once he had enough demand. Some key difference that should be noted between two categories are a) annual visas for FB category vs EB category is 260K vs. 140K. When one will reduce these numbers per category, ratio between two visa numbers would be quite similar b) For FB category demand could be easily generated in couple months as long as NVC have enough cases documentarily qualified (majority of demand in FB category comes from overseas consular posts) vs. EB category which rely mostly on USCIS to generate demand. C) Mr. Oppenheim started doing such movement for FB category in June 2010 which was still recalibrating until last fiscal year.

Mr. Oppenheim started doing similar movement of EB2-IC from October 2011. If we will assume that Mr. Oppenheim have similar thought process that he had while determining cut-off dates for FB category, then we should have seen movements as suggested in the column “EB2-IC”. But this was the not the case. Factors a) to c) could be the reason for this. As two categories have different demand and different annual visa numbers, movement could not be just purely based on similar difference. We took first two movements that we saw in the last visa bulletin to fit the best correlation to the data, and equation we received was

Recalibrated EB2-IC Movement

It should be noted that there is a correction in the equation. As forward movement will be less based on factor a) to c), even retrogression should be less than anticipated compared to FB category.

Forward Movement

EB2-IC Date:Current Bulletin = EB2-IC Date:Last Bulletin + (((F2A Movement: Current Bulletin - F2A Movement:Last Bulletin)*140000/260000) – 60 days)

Retrogression

EB2-IC Date:Current Bulletin = EB2-IC Date:Last Bulletin + (((F2A Movement: Current Bulletin - F2A Movement:Last Bulletin)*140000/260000) +60 days)

This equation closely satisfied movement that we saw for December 2011 and January 2012 Visa Bulletin. We used this data to correlate Mr. Oppenheim thought process in order to extrapolate movement for next few bulletins; as long as he will continue to have same thought process for rest of the year.

Fallacy to above method, it does not take into account any EB demand, PERM numbers and assumes similar correlation will exist for rest of the year. Personally, I would request everyone to take this lightly and do not put lot of eggs into this basket. The correlation when outputted was very interesting hence we thought of sharing it with our readers, especially when there is no logic behind current movement (as far as I can tell). It can give better perspective to this process than just going by a gut feeling.

If this will make sense, and will start panning out in next few bulletin then cut-off dates estimated by equation does not make sense from June 2012 – November 2012, I would say in case spillover is enough, dates may stick around December 2008 until June 2012 and then retrogress to September 2007 in August-September 2012 for some time. By this time most of the folks should have received green card from the filings in October-December 2011. Successively dates will move back to June 2008 in October 2013 or beyond. In all, I would not care about movement shown in later half of the table.

Note : Results here are independent of demand and were shared because they looked interesting. By no means this suggests that this is what we may see in next visa bulletins.

February 2012 Visa Bulletin Predictions - EB Category

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Mon, 19 Dec 2011 02:18:00 +0000

February 2012 Visa Bulletin will be the second bulletin for Q2 - FY 2012. Here is the prediction for February 2012 Visa Bulletin. We should see following movements in each category as long as USCIS/DOS would use visa numbers for each category as per statutory allocations.

February 2012 Visa Bulletin Predictions

EB3- China could advance to 15 November 2004
EB3 – ROW, EB3-Philippines, and EB3-Mexico could advance to 22 February 2006.
EB2 will be current for ROW, Mexico and Philippines.
EB3-India could advance to 15 August 2002.
EB2-India and EB2-China could see No movement-3 months movement in coming bulletin. It is not possible to estimate movement for EB2-IC based on available demand and calculations. Based on calculations, EB2-IC in most optimum case should provide green card up to May-June 2008 for this year; current demand would provide enough cases that can be allocated visas through EB2-IC annual limits and estimated spillover as per current trend. February 2012 movement will be solely based on DOS/USCIS’ policy to intake enough buffer demand for FY 2012 or beyond. Dates to retrogress in this bulletin seems not plausible.

At this time, our gut feeling is that movement can be as big as 3 months in February 2012 visa bulletin. This could be last intake for this fiscal year and then dates may stall until summer 2012.

Note – Predictions are based on educated guess and is not guaranteed. Please take it with a grain of salt.

Visa Bulletin : January 2012

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Sat, 10 Dec 2011 21:30:00 +0000

January 2012 Visa Bulletin for the FY 2012 was released yesterday. January visa bulletin brought 9 months movement for the EB-2 China and EB-2 India categories., thus moving it to the most favorable cur-off dates ever. EB3 categories advanced less than expected with EB3-ROW-M-P moving by 2 weeks. EB3-India and China moved as expected. All other categories are current as expected. Family Based category saw some movement.

Employment-Based (EB)
Below is a summary of the January 2012 Visa Bulletin with respect to employment-based petitions:

EB-1 remains current across the board.
EB-2 remains current for EB-2 ROW, Mexico and Philippines. EB-2 India and EB-2 China both move forward by nine and a half (9.5) months to January 1, 2009.
EB-3 ROW, EB-3 Mexico and EB-3 Philippines move forward by only two (2) weeks to February 1, 2006, EB-3 China moves forward by five (5) weeks to October 15, 2004, while EB-3 India moves forward by only one (1) week to August 8, 2002.
The “other worker” category remains unchanged (again) at April 22, 2003 for China. It moves forward by one and (1) month for ROW, Mexico and Philippines to February 1, 2006. It also moves forward by three (3) weeks for India to August 1, 2002.

Family-Based (FB)

Below is a summary of the December 2011 Visa Bulletin with respect to family-based petitions:

FB1 moves forward (again, for fourth consecutive month). FB1 ROW, China and India all move forward by six (6) weeks to October 15, 2004. FB1 Mexico moves forward by one (1) week to April 15, 1993 and FB1 Philippines moves forward by six (6) weeks to April 15, 1997.
FB2A moves forward by one (1) month to April 22, 2009 for ROW, China, India, and Philippines. FB2A Mexico moves forward by six (6) weeks to March 22, 2009.
FB2B ROW, China and India move forward by three (3) weeks to September 8, 2003. FB2B Mexico moves forward by only one (1) week to December 1, 1992. FB2B Philippines moves forward by two (2) weeks to September 1, 2001.

VISA AVAILABILITY IN THE COMING MONTHS

EB Categories

CHINA-MAINLAND BORN AND INDIA EMPLOYMENT-BASED SECOND PREFERENCE VISA AVAILABILITY IN THE COMING MONTHS
The China and India Employment Second preference cut-off date has been advanced at a rapid rate in recent months. As previously noted, this action was intended to generate significant levels of new filings for adjustment of status at U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) offices. USCIS has reported that the rate of new filings is currently far below that which they had anticipated, prompting an even more aggressive movement of the cut-off date for January and possibly beyond. While this action greatly increases the potential for an eventual retrogression of the cut-off at some point during the year, it also provides the best opportunity to utilize all numbers available under the annual limit.

As per statement in Visa Bulletin, demand is still very less for EB2-IC and DOS expects to move dates more aggressively only if demand will stay low for next few month(s). Advancement could be as big as 4-6 months minimum. It is unclear so far that such movement was solely based on less demand or HR 3012 also played a role in Mr. Oppenheim's decision. In any case, even with multiple PERM factor, 01 January 2009 or little more movement is plausible in wake of HR 3012. So far Mr. Oppenheim has stuck to his prediction, and movement in February 2012 visa bulletin cannot be discarded. More on demand could be inferred from January 2012 I-485 Inventory that will be released in Jan-Feb 2012. So far lets hope for the best and be ready for the worst.

EB3-ROW-M-P movement was less than anticipated. As per our calculation that's only 1300 visas worth movement. Not quite sure yet If HR 3012 is affecting Mr. Oppenheim's decision but we will know more in successive visa bulletins. CP demand is always unknown to us and with recent release of NVC waiting list that numbers must have changed significantly. This could be reason for the difference in movement of 3 weeks vs. 2 weeks.

FB Categories

No Notes

January 2012 Visa Bulletin Predictions - EB Category

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Tue, 29 Nov 2011 03:17:00 +0000

January 2012 Visa Bulletin will be the first bulletin for Q2 - FY 2012. Here is the prediction for January 2012 Visa Bulletin. We should see following movements in each category as long as USCIS/DOS would use visa numbers for each category as per statutory allocations.

January 2012 Visa Bulletin Predictions

EB3- China could advance to 22 September 2004
EB3 – ROW, EB3-Philippines, and EB3-Mexico could advance to 08 February 2006.
EB2 will be current for ROW, Mexico and Philippines.
EB3-India could advance to 08 August 2002.
EB2-India and EB2-China could see No movement - 3.5 months movement. It is not possible to estimate movement for EB2-IC based on available demand and calculations. Based on calculations, EB2-IC should stop over here; present demand would provide enough cases that can be allocated visas through EB2-IC annual limits and estimated spillover as per current trend. January 2012 movement will be solely based on DOS/USCIS’ policy to intake enough buffer demand for FY 2012. At this time, our gut feeling is that movement can be as big as 1-3.5 months in January 2012 visa bulletin before we may see retrogression. In successive bulletins (Feb-Mar 2012) dates may stall or even retrogress (exception is H.R. 3012). We will be more confident on Jan VB after release of this month’s demand data.

Note – Predictions are based on educated guess and is not guaranteed. Please take it with a grain of salt.