Random Fundamentalist

Update..

noreply@blogger.com (RandomFundamentalist) — Fri, 17 Sep 2010 22:36:00 +0000

I am going to start writing here more often, and hopefully with more focus.

As of right now, I am long ATPG @ $11.60... I still think it looks good here with a stop below $11.50 or so. Titan monetization and MC941 #3 coming online @ 10k BBL/day will hopefully be the catalysts.

One of my other longs (OCNW) got bought out by its main rival for a pittance. I was in @ $4.60, so I didn't mind, but long-term holders probably weren't aren't enthusiastic.

More to come, with a watchlist and some price targets.

Sold

noreply@blogger.com (RandomFundamentalist) — Tue, 09 Mar 2010 20:33:00 +0000

I sold TNDM at around $17.60 for a 7% gain. And I sold half of my CLRT which I was averaged in on around $2.05. The market looks toppy, severely so. I think we will have to have a monumental catalyst to move substantially higher. I sold out of my BBND despite it trading near cash levels. I lost 6% on that one. Will likely add if it drops to the mid-$2's again.

Having said that. I still hold large positions in ATPG (event-driven), CLRT and LIME (valuation-based).

Overall, not looking for a huge drop, but I think a 5-10% correction is in order.

I Bought OCNW

noreply@blogger.com (RandomFundamentalist) — Thu, 11 Feb 2010 19:06:00 +0000

I bought OCNW at $5.75. They are going to release earnings Feb 18th at which point they might trade down due to near-term order uncertainty. However, the catalysts are there. I will post more when I have some time. If they get nuked after earnings, I will double my position and hold until the catalysts play out (1 year or so) or the catalysts wane.

Disclosure: Long OCNW

I Bought

noreply@blogger.com (RandomFundamentalist) — Tue, 09 Feb 2010 19:15:00 +0000

GTI -- Viva la Steel!
ATPG -- Viva Oil, and huge leverage to a small number of projects!!

Back from the Dead

noreply@blogger.com (RandomFundamentalist) — Thu, 04 Feb 2010 23:58:00 +0000

I died a little bit. Investing has gotten a little tough with the market all cracked-out. As of right now, I am long, for the long-haul, CLRT, JAKK, BBND, TNDM and RRST.... I will probably just add to these positions unless something spectacular arises. Like GXDX in the mid 20's, MTRX a dollar lower, ENTR in the low $2s, NR in the low $2s, POWL in the mid $20s, or FEIC @ $15-16.

Good night, and good luck.

Disclosure: Long CLRT, BBND, RRST, TNDM, JAKK

Sold: GXDX and NR

noreply@blogger.com (RandomFundamentalist) — Thu, 24 Sep 2009 16:29:00 +0000

I sold out of GXDX @ $34 or so with a cost basis of around $28.50 and the remainder of my NR position at $3.08 or so with a cost basis of $2.80. My only position is VRGY, which I initiated yesterday at around $11.76. Not sure how long I will hold on to it, but I think it is fairly cheap and is a play on back-end semi strength.

Sold: NR

noreply@blogger.com (RandomFundamentalist) — Thu, 17 Sep 2009 17:43:00 +0000

I sold half my position in NR for a 15-20% gain. Keeping the other half for a little while at least.

Disclosure: Long NR and GXDX in personal accounts.

Sold: ACET

noreply@blogger.com (RandomFundamentalist) — Tue, 15 Sep 2009 20:07:00 +0000

I sold ACET today. I will be looking for a reentry at some point, but I think it is likely dead money for a few months... I need to review the conference call and get up-to-date on the company, but I am exciting with a 6-7% profit on the trade.

NR has been good to me and awarded my patience, I am thinking of taking 1/3rd of my position off the table, simply because it has gotten to be a little large for my taste.

GXDX is on fire. I am thinking about trying to ride it into $38's and then bailing. So far so good on that one though.

I have been in the midst of buying a house, and haven't really had a lot of noteworthy investment ideas. Value investing is getting tough right now, as it seems most stocks have gone parabolic off the March lows.

Hopefully I will be posting more soon.

Year-to-date (starting OCT 2008) I am beating the S&P by 4% or so. Not great, but not bad while I am learning.

Happy Trading.

CRY

noreply@blogger.com (RandomFundamentalist) — Wed, 12 Aug 2009 21:06:00 +0000

Cryolife ticker: CRY out today with FDA approval for its cryograft for heart valves (probably more complicated than I can explain or know)... Anyways, management indicates a $15mm market opportunity... That equates to 10% top line growth, so a 30% upshoot in the stock is a bit surprising, if not overdone... That being said, the company was undervalued in my eyes before this announcement so.... If I owned any shares in my personal account, I would be selling into this news north of $6.65.

Disclosure: Long CRY in model portfolio at 2% weighting.

Sold: STRL

noreply@blogger.com (RandomFundamentalist) — Mon, 10 Aug 2009 14:46:00 +0000

I sold out of all of my STRL for a 20%+ gain. They reported earnings today and slaughtered EPS on the heels of robust gross margins, however their backlog continues to decline and their posture on future profit margins in the current bidding environment is underwhelming....

I will be reading the conference call when I have some time to see if there is anything compelling, or sustainable about their recent uptick in EPS.... Interestingly, they are keeping CapEx down, which is nice, as they spent quite a bit in 2007 and 2008 to overhaul their equipment. Their balance sheet continues to get better as well....

Health Insurance Companies are Crooks: Rescission

noreply@blogger.com (RandomFundamentalist) — Mon, 03 Aug 2009 15:54:00 +0000

Truly frightening and insane article about rescission in the Health Insurance Arena via Naked Capitalism.

The 3rd youtube clip from the top is absolutely crazy. Reading through this article is sure to make your blood boil.

Missed Opportunity

noreply@blogger.com (RandomFundamentalist) — Thu, 30 Jul 2009 20:19:00 +0000

I think I will have missed out on an opportunity in GXDX, as they blew numbers out of the water after the bell today. I have been looking at this name, and have had it in my model portfolio for 3 months or so and have been buying more leading into earnings. We will see how the stock reacts, but I wouldn't be surprised to see it up 20% tomorrow, based on my interpretation of their earnings.....

On another note, NR put up a miserable number after hours, which I kind of expected... But it is really bad... $.10 loss compared to -$.05 analyst expectation and revenue around $110mm compared to $136mm analysts estimate. If the stock wasn't already dirt cheap, I would expect it to get bludgeoned over the head, then stabbed and shot tomorrow -- though since it is so cheap, I think downside is to $2.20 depending on the spin they put forth in the conference call..... I am sure I will be nervous holding this one and waiting for my thesis to play out... It could be a losing proposition.

Disclosure: Long NR in personal account; Long GXDX in model portfolio @ 3.6% allocation

Newpark Resources: Ticker: NR

noreply@blogger.com (RandomFundamentalist) — Wed, 22 Jul 2009 02:03:00 +0000

Newpark is out with a release after hours indicating they amended their credit facility (read it here). I have mixed feelings about it, on one hand, it eliminates a negative, them being in breach of their debt covenants, and on the other hand, it seems a bit onerous -- increasing rate from libor + 150bps-250bps to libor +400bps to 750bps -- with it starting at 750bps). My thinking is that all things being equal from the prior quarter, NR just increased its EPS hit from interest by around $.05... For a company that is losing money, as well as projected to earn $.14 in 2010, this is a decent sized headwind.

So what does the stock do tomorrow? Based on the news, I would think it will go down. But in the past few months, an eerie thing has happened. News releases that on the surface appear bearish, get treated as bullish throughout the next day and weeks. My money is the stock will take a beating, but into that beating, I am not sure if I would buy some more or just sit tight.

The more I look into the company, the more I think it might be mismanaged... However, I still believe the market is undervaluing the company and hasn't priced in the rise in oil from $35 to $65/ barrel....

Should be interesting.

On another note, I am liking what I have seen so far on TSYS... Could be an interesting way to get into tech, especially into a name that hasn't run up like a lot of the other names... Profitable, good balance sheet, support looming below... I like.

Disclosure: Long NR

BBND

noreply@blogger.com (RandomFundamentalist) — Fri, 17 Jul 2009 19:54:00 +0000

I want to buy some BBND right here, right now. But I don't have time to look through their conference calls to see what their plans are for their monstrous cash hoard. Hopefully I can figure it out this weekend and buy at current prices or lower.

Disclosure: None

Still Holding

noreply@blogger.com (RandomFundamentalist) — Thu, 16 Jul 2009 03:58:00 +0000

I am still long ACET, NR and STRL... Not getting the action I really want in STRL, so I might jettison it soon... I am going to hold out till $4 on NR, but their looming earnings on July 30th may make me sell ahead of time provided the stock continues to rally.

With relation to STRL, I think the company is still cheap. One thing mitigating this is the fact that they haven't been winning an abundance of business, with exception of the recent ~$29mm contract they just announced, and that as an acquisition target, it is one of the many contractors in Texas who have the scale to make a difference for a company like TPC, JEC, or GVA...

I am kicking myself for not buying something tech before the INTC report, as a monkey could've predicted they were going to slaughter earnings. Having said that, BBND still looks awfully cheap provided you can start a position here and add in the mid $4 range.

A couple other names I like in the tech space include:
WFR >> But wait for a pullback
UCTT >> If tech is rebounding, they have one of the more leveraged business models to gas subsystem outsourcing. They've also been signing contracts for 2+ years that have just been waiting to ramp... Perhaps they will deliver on their promise...

On other frontiers... If you're into deep value, look into CRDN... Clean balance sheet, trading at .9x TBV. The main drivers of the business are body armor and RPG resistant vehicles, so if you can't stomach volatility in defense spending and/or troop withdrawal from Iraq, this one is not for you..... With that said, I think you're getting compensated for a lot of risks at the current price.

If you want to sit on a fat dividend, look into SAFT.. I think they have something like 14% market share in Massachusetts in the automobile market. It's yielding around 5% at the moment... I haven't looked into what they are holding onto in their investment portfolio, so you might want to consider that before buying... Still, buying insurance companies below book value, historically, has been a good thing... This one trades at .8x TBV.. So far I like it, even though its business isn't exactly defensible nor sheltered from pricing pressure and competition. Their dividend appears well-covered even in a flat to down premium growth environment.

A couple other fliers I have taken in my model portfolio have been some Business Development Companies... HTGC, CODI and PSEC... I have no earthly idea if their dividends are safe. I suspect not, but I thought low exposure would be interesting....

I'd recommend accumulating shares of CRY, and WINN if you're interested in a couple story stocks... As of right now, I am not totally convinced, but they seem interesting.

As a biotech company, I find CEPH to be the most interesting player in the non-giant pharma industry... They could get acquired at some point.

That is all.

Buy

noreply@blogger.com (RandomFundamentalist) — Mon, 13 Jul 2009 19:57:00 +0000

I bought more NR @ $2.30.... I will battle this one until I win. And, I will win.

Stock Market

noreply@blogger.com (RandomFundamentalist) — Wed, 08 Jul 2009 06:54:00 +0000

You're probably going to have to have balls the size of watermelons to be holding stocks the next few weeks. Or, like me, you are a glutton for punishment. Or, slightly brain damaged. Needless to say, it's getting eerie out there, and the Bears are lurking in your attic.

Interesting Blog Post About Catalyst For Oil Price

noreply@blogger.com (RandomFundamentalist) — Wed, 08 Jul 2009 06:51:00 +0000

Gregor talks about some attacks on Nigerian Oil Platforms taking some supply out of the system. Worth a read. Perhaps I am just looking for something that keeps me from throwing Newpark Resources out of my window.

Jam On

noreply@blogger.com (RandomFundamentalist) — Tue, 07 Jul 2009 06:19:00 +0000

Whoops, Your ARMS are Worth 1%

noreply@blogger.com (RandomFundamentalist) — Tue, 07 Jul 2009 06:06:00 +0000

I found this press release while perusing the intertubes and thought it rather frightening. Here is United Western Bank selling off $47mm in Option ARM loans at a 99.2% markdown. You here that Wells Fargo? How's that Wachovia acquisition looking these days? Not frightened about CA imploding and being sold off to the Chinese? Oh, me neither. Anyone who tells you Wells Fargo is adequately capitalized picked the wrong day to stop sniffing glue.

Stock to Watch

noreply@blogger.com (RandomFundamentalist) — Mon, 06 Jul 2009 01:40:00 +0000

I am a fan of EXFO at current market quotation or lower. Hopefully I will be able to post more as I acquire more knowledge about the company.

Weekly Rail Data

noreply@blogger.com (RandomFundamentalist) — Sun, 05 Jul 2009 23:47:00 +0000

Perhaps it is bad to base an investment on one data point but... what the hell... Mish is pointing to some negative data about rail traffic accoring to railfax. I, for one, happened to key on the most positive data point and noticed Coal traffic being less bad (haha) than other items. To play this, my play has always been ANR. I like it here, but I would like a bit of a pullback to reflect the integration risk of International Coal Group and the risk that China is done stockpiling commodities. ANR, however, has the best balance sheet in the industry which should continue to be so, as the ICO merger is all stock.

Position Update

noreply@blogger.com (RandomFundamentalist) — Thu, 02 Jul 2009 20:15:00 +0000

I am still holding NR, STRL and ACET... Since these are long-term positions, I plan on keeping them for awhile. I might add to NR if we continue this decline.

Stock I am Researching

noreply@blogger.com (RandomFundamentalist) — Tue, 30 Jun 2009 03:03:00 +0000

National Presto Industries (ticker: NPK) has been put on my radar by a seekingalpha article which mentions it in passing when discussing Forbes' recent release of 40 companies for retirement.

What has initially caught my eye is the $22/share in cash and their significant free cash flow ($53mm annual run-rate using last quarter's numbers).

I'll be looking into this one further, as I think the current price might be a little rich. Interesting nonetheless.

Cryolife (Ticker: CRY)

noreply@blogger.com (RandomFundamentalist) — Thu, 25 Jun 2009 06:17:00 +0000

I am strongly considering buying this one tomorrow, should I be afforded time to do so.

The thesis I am working off of loosely is....
1) Increased sales reps to support growth
2) Cheap stock price all-around
3) Litigation largely behind them
4) Increased sales of Hemostase due to litigation pressure on its supplier
5) Nice looking balance sheet, which may allow it to consolidate the industry and improve on its already strong 65% market share in tissue preservation
6) Increasing presence into South America and Asia

I am not totally convinced, but at current market quotation or lower, I am a buyer. All that being said, this is a stock I would be patient with until the end of 2010 or so... With that, I would be comfortable if the stock hit $7 between now and then provided I could get it at $5.30 or less. Position yourself accordingly.

Disclosure: None