Currencies - Cross Rates

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Chalk it up to world economics, but a hotel room priced at Cdn. $200 now costs $184 U.S. based on the midweek exchange rate of 92 cents to the Canadian loonie, named for the bird on the one-dollar coin.

That’s better than last year when the two currencies reached par, but not nearly as good as last April when a much stronger greenback meant the Cdn. $200 room would have cost just $158.

Which way things will go from here is anyone’s guess. Exchange rates — the amount you get when exchanging U.S. dollars for another currency — change daily based on economic trends such as oil prices and budget deficits.

For travelers, however, the bottom-line goal is always the same: Getting the best exchange rate available while minimizing service fees that can add up to the cost of a dinner out or extra night’s hotel stay.

Whether you’re planning a trip this summer or thinking ahead to the 2010 Olympics in February in Whistler and Vancouver, B.C., hold this thought:

How you pay for hotels, cars, restaurants and other expenses will affect how much you pay.

Credit/debit-card purchases

Using a credit or debit card for most purchases makes the most sense. This is because Visa and MasterCard process the charges at the most favorable daily exchange rate, the interbank rate that’s at or very close to the rate listed in newspapers or on the Internet at sites such as www.oanda.com.

The catch: You’ll want to make sure you’re not only getting the best exchange rate, but also avoiding high foreign-transaction fees.

Keep in mind a new wrinkle: As of June 1, most banks began applying these fees to purchases to any transaction made in U.S. dollars if it was made or processed outside the U.S.

Examples would be something bought online through a store in Canada, or an Olympics hotel/ticket package paid for in U.S. dollars, but processed through a Canadian vendor.

Foreign-transaction fees are twofold: Visa and MasterCard levy a standard 1 percent fee on the purchase amount after it’s converted to U.S. dollars. Some banks then tack on extra fees for a total of 2-3 percent.

This means that if you spent Cdn. $200 on a hotel room and the charge came in at $184 when converted to U.S. dollars, you’d pay a conversion fee of $1.84 at 1 percent and $5.52 at 3 percent. Best advice: Use a card that carries a maximum conversion fee of 1 percent or less.

Virginia-based Capital One (www.capitalone.com) offers the best deal for travelers. It waives all foreign transaction fees, including the 1 percent Visa and MasterCard charge.

Next best are smaller local and regional banks and credit unions which pass on only the 1 percent fee. Most national banks now charge 3 percent, but that could go higher in the future as banks look for new ways to raise credit-card revenue.

Tip: Avoid offers by merchants to convert your credit-card purchases to U.S. dollars. Called “dynamic currency conversion,” this is sold as a convenience to consumers, but it’s also a profit-making opportunity for retailers who tack a surcharge onto the base exchange rate as a fee. The main offenders: rental-car companies and shops that cater to tourists.

ATM withdrawals

Withdrawing money from a cash machine in Canada can be the easiest and least costly way to get Canadian dollars, but there are a few caveats:

• As with credit cards, watch the fees. Aim for an ATM/debit card with a maximum fee of 1 percent of the amount after conversion to U.S. dollars. Again, smaller banks and credit unions are your best bets.

• Avoid additional withdrawal fees. Bank of America, for instance, charges $5 per foreign ATM withdrawal plus a 1 percent fee on the amount, but waives all charges if you use an ATM at a Global Alliance affiliate bank — Scotiabank (www.scotiabank.ca) in Canada.

• Some Canadian banks might also charge ATM fees. Minimize these by asking your bank or credit union to raise the amount you can withdraw each time.

• Avoid non-bank cash machines such as those found in some grocery stores or gas stations. Withdrawal fees are high.

• Don’t use a credit card to withdraw cash. You’ll pay cash-advance fees and paying interest right away.

Tip:

Tell your bank or credit union that you’ll be traveling and using your ATM and credit cards in Canada. Otherwise, they may suspect fraud and put a temporary hold on your accounts until they hear from you. Take along your bank’s phone number in case of a problem.

Changing money in Canada

Exchanging U.S. dollars or travelers checks for Canadian currency in Canada is a more costly way to go, but easy to do at banks, or private “change” businesses in tourist areas and at the airport, train station, etc.

The trade-off for convenience is a worse exchange rate than you get by using a credit card or ATM and/or a service fee that reduces the amount you receive.

Hotels will sometimes exchange small amounts of cash for guests at fair rates and no commission. The Westin Hotel Resort and Spa in Whistler lets guests change up to $100 a day in either cash or travelers checks at a favorable rate with no extra service charge.

Buying Canadian dollars here

There’s little reason to buy Canadian dollars here before you go. AAA and banks offer this as a convenience for customers, but poor exchange rates — 3 to 5 cents below the base rate — and other fees make this an expensive way to go.

Paying in U.S. dollars in Canada

It’s often possible to pay with U.S. dollars in Canada. Exchange rates vary. Some merchants offer a rate close to the daily bank rate; others offer only “par,” a straight one-for-one exchange.

Computers at the The North Face Store in Whistler automatically recalculate the exchange rate each day for customers who want to pay in U.S. dollars. All shops, restaurants, ski lifts, etc., run by Whistler-Blackcomb accept U.S. dollars at a rate that’s within a few cents of the official bank rate.

Policies among Vancouver merchants vary.

Murchie’s Tea & Coffee stores try to keep their exchange rate within 2-2.5 cents of the bank rate, says Grant Kuebler. “We don’t look at it as a profit center,” he says. “With all that’s going on in the economy, we want to be a good value for tourists.”

Tip: While many businesses will take U.S. dollars, you’ll get your change in Canadian currency.

But the minister warned that even if the economy exceeds the forecast of flat growth made by the government last month, unemployment would continue to rise.

“(The gross domestic product figure released on Wednesday) will definitely mean there is probably more positive growth or upside risk in the forecasts, but it doesn’t change the nature of the challenge,” Swan told Sky News.

Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) governor Glenn Stevens said the central bank was ready to further cut interest rates to encourage a “durable upswing” but also warned that unemployment could weigh on the economy.

The RBA has slashed rates from 7.25 percent in September to a 49-year low of 3.0 percent, although it declined to make further changes at its meeting this week.

“While consumer spending has held up quite well so far, it may be weaker over the next few months, as the one-off government payments pass and rising unemployment starts to weigh on incomes and willingness to spend,” Stevens said.

“Our expectation remains that the economy will be well placed for expansion towards the end of this year,” he added.

The government estimated in its May budget that GDP growth for 2008-09 would be flat while the economy would contract by 0.5 percent in the 2009-10 financial year.

But Australia on Wednesday became the only major Western nation to avoid recession during the global economic slump when it posted surprise growth in the first quarter of 2009.

The announcement that the economy had grown 0.4 percent in the three months to March instead of shrinking for a second consecutive quarter came a day after the government unveiled better-than-expected export figures for the period.

However, joblessness still looms large on the economic horizon, with a government prediction of 8.5 percent of unemployment by the middle of 2010 expected to stand, Swan said.

“There’s still a very big employment challenge out there,” Swan said, adding there was no plan to revise the jobless forecasts.

Sterling was bullish hitting a high of 81.2 last seen in December 2008. In addition the UK economy received praise from the IMF on their aggressive action in tackling the recession thus far. However the IMF also warned that the government needed to adopt more plans to reduce the huge scale of government borrowing.

Today this facet was drilled home as the S & P downgraded the UK outlook from stable to negative. Immediately on this news sterling was dramatically sold- losing 2% on the USD and 1.5% against the euro in the space of 10 minutes!

Going forward I feel the amount public debt will increasingly become a focus for global economies…once recovery is apparent economies will have to face up to the reality of the massive borrowing that was required to get the economy moving.

A similar pattern can be seen in the US. Last night the Fed commented in their minutes that they are looking to expand their asset-purchasing programme. Against the back drop of recent improved sentiment the Fed minutes downgraded the growth expectations for the US economy- officials saw the economy contracting between 1.3% and 2% this year against forecasts of 0.5% to 1.3% in Jan. In addition unemployment is expected to rise significantly higher than forecasts raised in January.

Concerns are growing on the long term health of the US economy- more weak indicators and indications of more borrowing will cause a shift out of the dollar as it will lose its favour as a safe haven currency. The USD has lost ground across the markets- hitting a 5 month index related low- EUR/USD hit 1.3838 and USD/YEN 94.27.

Data already released from the UK showed that retail sales came in better than expected at 0.9% month on month for April. However this will be overshadowed by the downgrade from S & P.

Tokyo Nikkei 225 Index rises 1.66%, while South Korean Kospi Index trades 1.16% higher. Markets in Australia, New Zealand and Hong Kong are all going through gains ranging from 1% to 2.15%.

Japanese Machinery orders fell 22% year on year in March, but the decline was lower than expected, furthermore, Sony’s bright outlook for financial year has lifted investors sentiment and returned hopes of economical improvement to stock markets.

Euro and Pound rise from Thursday’s lows

EUR/USD has bounced up after hitting intra-week low at 1.3525 yesterday to reach 1.3665 session high on early Asian trade. At the moment, the Euro trades around 1.3625.

GBP/USD bounced yesterday at intra-week low at 1.5055 and has risen during U.S. And Asian session to take back some of the ground lost yesterday, reaching a session high at 1.5245.

USD/JPY has bounced at support level at 95.10 to break above resistance level at 95.75, reaching a session high at 96.20, to set back afterwards to levels around 95.90.Friday in Asia, the New Zealand dollar tumbled to its lowest level in almost 8-days against the Aussie after a report showed that New Zealand’s retail sales fell for the sixth consecutive quarter in the first three months of 2009 as consumers restrained spending, leaving the door open for more rate cuts to help the recession-hit economy. The kiwi also edged down against the currencies of U.S., Europe and Japan.

Aussie News

Statistics NZ reported today that when adjusted for inflation, retail sales volume for the first quarter declined 2.9 percent from the preceding quarter. The drop was more than double the previous record decline of 1.4 percent registered in June 2008 and March 1997.

The agency said the long term trend in total retail sales volumes has been declining since June 2007, having fallen a cumulative 6.7 percent since then, marking the longest and fastest period of decline since record keeping began in September 1995.

In terms of value, total retail sales for the quarter were down a seasonally adjusted 1.5 percent, the fourth straight quarterly fall and the largest in 12 years. The biggest declines were seen in motor vehicle sales, which were down 9.2 percent. Auto fuel retailing dropped 6.6 percent.

Since retail sales account for close to eight per cent of New Zealand’s gross domestic product, today’s report pointed to another sharp contraction in the first quarter, and more easing by the central bank.
New Zealand’s economy has been in recession since the start of last year as the global financial crisis exacerbated the effects of a rapidly cooling housing market, bringing about job cuts and stagnating incomes.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand responded by cutting the key rate by a total of 575 basis points since last July to a record low 2.5 per cent. It has said last month it would keep the interest rate steady or lower until the latter part of 2010.

The New Zealand dollar slipped to 1.2853 against the Aussie during Asian deals on Friday. This set the lowest point for the kiwi since April 07. On the downside, 1.295 is seen as the next likely target for the NZ dollar. The aussie-kiwi pair was worth 1.2755 at Thursday’s close.

The kiwi tumbled to near a 2-month low of 1.2950 against the aussie on April 30. Although the kiwi gained 3% thereafter, it weakened again after hitting a 13-day high of 1.2569 on May 11. Thus far, the kiwi has declined 2% against the aussie.

In Asian trading on Friday, the New Zealand dollar dropped against the U.S. currency. At about 10:10 pm ET, the kiwi-greenback pair touched 0.5908, down from yesterday’s close of 0.5968. If the pair weakens further, it may likely target the 0.5865 level.

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Base currency GBP, United Kingdon GB Pounds, GB£, GBL on 14th May, 2009

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The Pound has lost strength after having hit a fresh 4-month high at 1.5305 and has dropped to levels right above yesterday’s high at 1.5260, a support level which is being tested at the moment.

According to the Swiss e Trade Strategy Team, the pound is about to give away recent gaiins dropping to 1.5150: “In a bold move, cable is trying to break a long-term resistance zone in early European hours, currently trading at 1.5270, near the day’s high. We expect the upmove to lose momentum around the 1.5300 mark, turning into a down movement towards the 1.5150 level.”

Euro

The Euro has won around 75 pips against the Dollar last hour, rising from 1.3620 to reach a new 7-week high at 1.3695 and test the 1.3700 level. Currently the pair is trading around 1.3680/90, 0.70% above today’s opening price.

According to Peter Rosentreich, analyst at ACM - Advanced Currency Markets, Bernanke and Trichet comments are helping risk appetite: “The EUR continues to be helped by recent risk-appetite, supported by equity market rallies and declining VIX and growing credibility to the ‘green shoots’ theory. In addition, as the market discounts the probability of a “black swan” event in the financial sector, the flight to safety trades becomes less relevant. With focus being put back on the Fed’s massively bloated balance sheet, timing of recovery and clean break of 200d ma, we expect traders are looking to build long position in the EUR. Comments by Bernanke and Trichet have added to the growing optimism surrounding the global recovery. Bernanke attempted to talk up the USD yesterday, stating that “the USD will be strong because the US economy is strong”. On the comment both EUR and GBP sold off dropping to intra-day lows but then quickly recovering, as trader focused/ believing the “US economy is strong portion” of more than the rational of a strong USD.”

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Base currency GBP, United Kingdon GB Pounds, GB£, GBL on 12th May, 2009

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The Pound rallied to the strongest level against the Dollar in four months yesterday, rising to a high of $1.5160 in London.

GBP/USD closed higher on Tuesday and above the 20-day moving average crossing confirming that a short-term high has been posted. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signalling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If it extends last week’s rally, the reaction high crossing is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing would confirm that a short-term bottom has been posted.

EUR/USD closed lower due to profit taking on Tuesday as it consolidated some of Monday’s rally. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signalling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If it extends this week’s rally, the reaction high crossing is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market.

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