Financial Sense

Surprising Surge in Consumer Sentiment Bullish for Economy

Chris Puplava — Fri, 25 May 2012 13 -0700

The final May reading for the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey came out today at 79.3, above the 77.8 consensus estimate and above April’s 76.4 reading. The 79.3 reading puts the survey at its highest level in four years as improvement was seen in both the present conditions index and the expectations index.

Stop The Noise - The Long U.S. Political Campaigns Are Not Necessary!

Sy Harding — Fri, 25 May 2012 12 -0700

In the U.K. national elections are usually held within a month of being announced. In Canada the longest political campaign in the last 100 years lasted all of 74 days. Why do politicians in the U.S. think Americans have to be hammered with their rhetoric for a year or more before they can be considered to be an informed voter?

Housing Debate: Big Drop Ahead or Buy Now

Michael Shedlock — Fri, 25 May 2012 10 -0700

I do not think the bottom is in. Yet, I doubt another 20% decline is coming nationally. Some high-priced markets may see huge declines, other areas may have already bottomed. Inventories are down but still high, especially if one counts shadow inventory and pent-up demand for retiring boomers to downsize.

Investment-Critical Mega-Developments & Select Antidotes

Deepcaster — Fri, 25 May 2012 08 -0700

Indeed, the central banks are already implementing debt-eroding inflations. E.g., real inflation in the U.S.A. is already at 9.9% (Shadowstats.com). And this has major consequences.

When Gold Becomes Tier 1 Capital

Richard Mills — Fri, 25 May 2012 08 -0700

Institutional investors tend to prefer investments that are thought to contain the potential for growth, growth = sprouts. An investment has to produce a growing revenue stream - if it doesn’t grow it doesn’t compound. Gold is rejected as an investment because it doesn’t produce sprouts, meaning the steady income and systematic growth so sought after by institutional investors just isn’t there.

The E.U., Neofeudalism and the Neocolonial-Financialization Model

Charles Hugh Smith — Thu, 24 May 2012 15 -0700

To fully understand the Eurozone's financial-debt crisis, we must dig through the artifice, obfuscation and propaganda to the real dynamics of Europe's "new feudalism," the Neocolonial-Financialization Model.

Facebook: Learning Lessons the Hard Way (Again)

Danielle Park — Thu, 24 May 2012 15 -0700

Facebook was the most over-hyped issue I have seen in the past 20 years. That’s saying something, because new issue pump and dumps are the norm.

IRS Cuts Deals

Bruce Krasting — Thu, 24 May 2012 11 -0700

The other day the IRS announced new rules for settling tax liabilities for individuals. It’s a sweet deal. I thought that was interesting. Then yesterday we get an announcement from Altria (MO) that they too have cut a deal with the boys at the IRS. Coincidence? Leading indicator?

OPEC Has Lost the Power to Lower the Price of Oil

Gregor Macdonald — Thu, 24 May 2012 11 -0700

There’s been a lot of excitement in the past year over the rise of North American oil production and the promise of increased oil production across the whole of the Americas in the years to come.

Sorting Out the “Fiscal Cliff” Issue

Asha Bangalore — Thu, 24 May 2012 10 -0700

Under current law, the federal budget deficit in fiscal year 2013 will show a drastic decline from fiscal year 2012 as a result of scheduled increases in taxes and reductions in government spending. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that the federal budget deficit of $1.17 trillion in fiscal 2012 will shrink to $612 billion in fiscal 2013.

Chopp’n Down the Appl Tree

Ned W Schmidt CFA — Thu, 24 May 2012 10 -0700

A month ago we warned that AAPL($602) had broken down from a parabolic rise. Despite near universal love for this stock, the failure of that pattern was a warning that a much lower price was the destiny for this purveyor of electronic toys.

Will There Be Stimulus?

James J Puplava CFP — Thu, 24 May 2012 09 -0700

We would equate the current market environment to the events that precede a declaration of war. Prior to the declaration markets sell off due to the fears of uncertainty that precedes the breakout of hostilities. Once the war begins, and the bombs start dropping, the market stages a recovery because it is the beginning of the end. That is where we are now.

Whatever Happened to $200 Oil?

Jeff Rubin — Thu, 24 May 2012 08 -0700

Four years ago, when I was still chief economist at CIBC World Markets, I forecast that global economic growth was on pace to send oil prices to $200 a barrel by 2012. In short, the argument was based on a supply-driven analysis that weighed...

Realigning Markets & Economy

Dock Treece — Thu, 24 May 2012 05 -0700

Currently there is a lot of disparity between behavior in stocks and the outlook for the US economy. Sooner or later these two will have to come into line.

Market’s Weekly Bill of Health

Chris Puplava — Wed, 23 May 2012 13 -0700

With the market’s decline over the past week our longer term survey (200 day moving average evaluation) worsened with the long term trend of the market close to being downgraded another notch from neutral-bullish to neutral-bearish. Our more sensitive MATA survey fell meaningful from the prior week which downgraded the intermediate market outlook from neutral-bearish to outright bearish.

Pocket of Strength: Turkey Retail Stocks Rally

Frank Holmes — Wed, 23 May 2012 12 -0700

To add alpha, we believe investors need to continually seek pockets of strength amidst today’s mire of pessimism. One bright spot we’ve seen lies just east of Greece: Turkey.

Ahead of the Euro Area Summit – The Pressure Mounts

Pater Tenebrarum — Wed, 23 May 2012 08 -0700

Rumors have been making their way over the wires on Tuesday that the four largest Greek banks will receive € 18 billion in the form of 'EFSF bonds' on Friday in a first tranche of the recapitalization effort that is part of Greece's latest bailout deal.

Bottoming Process or Bearish Acceleration?

Chris Ciovacco — Wed, 23 May 2012 08 -0700

On May 6 with the S&P 500 trading at 1,369, we presented evidence of slowing bullish momentum. Thus far, we have seen little in the way of hard evidence to suggest a bottom was reached last Friday. However, we have seen enough to suggest remaining open to a bottoming process unfolding over the next one to three weeks.

Hedge Funds Re-evaluate Gold’s Potential

Clif Droke — Wed, 23 May 2012 00 -0700

Gold’s biggest problem since February has been one of relative weakness. This weakness in turn has kept the market-moving hedge fund players away from gold. But as we’ll see in the latest commentary, that may be about to change.

Dollar Oil Price Is the ‘Vital Interest’

Julian Phillips — Wed, 23 May 2012 00 -0700

There was much more to Hilary Clinton’s China and India trip than meets the eye. It was an acid test of the power of the U.S. to press its political will upon the world. The issue at hand was the U.S. trying to halt sales of Iranian oil worldwide and to offer India the same amount of oil from other sources.