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GBP/USD forecast

Kolganov Anton — Thu, 22 Oct 2009 15:31:06 PDT

�H4 graph �� The pair is trading along the “a2-a2+” uptrend. It is set against a rather strong support 1.6640 (the lower bound of sideways trend). If after that the pair won’t manage to rise above level 1.6700 and will drop below 1.6470, a correction will start and the pair will retreat to support level 1.6260 (K trendline). Otherwise, if the pair rises above level 1.6700, upside momentum will become stronger and we will be expecting the pair to rise at target resistance 1.6900. � � Daily graph (22.10.09) �� The pair is trading along a sideways trend, which is stating that stable and wide corrections may occur. Level 1.6640 (C trendline) is a strong resistance, which is holding the market at the moment. Taking that level into consideration there are 2 variants of events to proceed: 1. The pair rebounds off 1.6640 and in case it drops below level 1.6470, it will get to support 1.6260. Next, if the market manages to consolidate above this support, we may consider possibility of upside to level 1.6900. 2. The pair continues its upside after breaking above level 1.6700; in such case it will approach key resistance 1.6900. � � Weekly graph (from 05.25.09) �� After getting over level 1.5300 (breaking the “Y-Y+” trend’s higher bound) the pair had set its target of growth to resistance level 1.6900 (“F” trend line). This level is meant to be reached in the course of “D-D+” uptrend. Upon reaching it, an intermediate resistance – level 1.6200 (“H” trend line and levels of Japanese candles) – will appear on the pair’s way. Due to the fact that 1.6200 is an important resistance, a correction is meant to follow from there and end up at support level 1.5300. Uptrend within the “D-D+” channel will be resumed from the same level and the pair will reach the target 1.6900. “D-D+” trend is completed in five waves. � � Monthly graph (from 05.25.09) �� Bounce off level 1.3900 (“R” trend line) had provoked a rapid growth of the pair. The peak of growth is meant to be found at level 1.6900 (“F” trend line). Upon reaching this level there will be two variants of events to develop: �� 1. Having bounced off level 1.6900 and after the “D-D+” weekly trend is broken, the pair will get to support 1.4355. � �� 2. If level 1.6900 is unable to show a sufficient resistance (the pair goes above this level), the pair will reach resistance 1.8530. �

EUR/USD forecast

Kolganov Anton — Thu, 22 Oct 2009 15:29:02 PDT

�H4 graph �� The pair is still trading along the “a-a+” uptrend in transition to a minor sideways trend. Level 1.5020 (b trendline) resists upside intentions. We cannot confirm the continuation of upside momentum unless the pair breaks resistance 1.5100 (this way the pair will attempt to get to 1.5284). If the uptrend keeps losing its strength and the pair retreats below level 1.4900, a correction will start and EURUSD will head to support level 1.4700 (the lower bound of “B-B+” daily trend). � � Daily graph (from 10.22.09) The pair is trading along the “B-B+” uptrend having the upside target set to a very strong resistance, level 1.5284. If the pair continues its upside above level 1.5100, we may count on the trend’s continuation. In case the pair drops below level 1.4900, it will retreat to support 1.4700 (B trendline). If the pair will then stay above that support, we may count on the uptrend’s continuation having the upside target set to 1.5284 (so drop to level 1.4700 will prove to be a correctional wave). If the pair drops below level 1.4700 (confirming that the “B-B+” daily uptrend is over), it will find a whole series of supports below, ending with key support 1.4450. In case the pair will drop below that key support, it will get to level 1.4100, and further to 1.3550 (we will discuss it later). � � Weekly graph (from 09.06.09) �� The pair is trading within the “D-D+” uptrend and is set against crossing of monthly and weekly trend lines “E” (the lower bound of monthly sideways trend) and “Z” (weekly trend line). By touching those trend lines, the pair gains an opportunity either to rebound from them towards level 1.3285 or to rise above them to resistance level 1.4935. � �� Taking into consideration the present picture, two variants of events to proceed are seen: 1. In case the pair rises above level 1.4500, it will get to resistance 1.4935. In such case the “up-trending triangle” figure will be executed. 2. In case the pair drops below level 1.4175, it will retreat to support 1.3900 (the lower bound of “C-C+” trend). And on drop below 1.3900 (quit from “C-C+” and “D-D+” trends), it will get down to key support 1.3285. � � Monthly graph (from 05.24.09) �� Strategically, the graph shows that the pair is developing a downtrend having the target set to level 1.1000 (“Q” trend line). This situation took effect after the “P-P+” uptrend had been broken along with “E-E+” trend and “F” trend line. But there are reasons that until the maximum 1.4720 is updated, the pair is unable to develop a downtrend to 1.1000. That reasons are well seen on weekly graph. Besides, it’s a simple logic that the pair can’t go to 1.1000 from current levels prior to formation of a trend-continuing figure (like “flag”, which is being formed now) or a side trend which would update the maximum 1.4720 (basically, such side trend is the same “flag” figure). �� Above the level 1.4720 is an accumulation of resistance levels 1.4935 and 1.5300 (these levels are examined in detail at weekly graph). Hence, after updating the maximum 1.4720 the pair will push off 1.4935 or, if it will get over 1.4935, off 1.5300 (which is a key level). Accumulation of these resistances is meant to become a turning, key level for the pair; and a supporting point for the “flag” figure’s higher bound. From there, the market will develop a downtrend aimed at the figure’s lower bound, roughly at level 1.2800. After passing that level the “flag” figure will have been executed and the next dropping target will be set to level 1.1000 (“Q” trend line). Then, a correction is supposed to be performed from there to level 1.3000 and down again to 1.0000. �� I would like to note that the feeling arises as if the right shoulder of a “head and shoulders” trend-turning figure is being formed now, however we definitely won’t see a clear “head and shoulders” figure there, especially if the pair goes up to level 1.5300. The neckline will get falsely broken for multiple times due to invalid figure proportions. That’s why it is better to get oriented to the “flag” figure (which virtually is the right shoulder of a “head and shoulders” figure). �

GOLD forecast

Kolganov Anton — Tue, 13 Oct 2009 11:46:30 PDT

H4 graph � � The Gold is trading along a confident uptrend having the rising target set to 1115. In case it rises above 1074, upside momentum will be increased and so we will be free to attempt buying additionally. Otherwise, if the gold drops below level 1047, the uptrend will loose strength in favor of a downtrend, which will develop having the drop target set to support level 1025 (K trendline). � � Daily graph (from 09.06.09) �� The gold is consolidating at level 994 (the crossing of “Z” weekly trend line and “B+” – the higher bound of daily uptrend). This level is a key one and it determines further direction of the market for near future. As we can see, the higher bound of the “triangle” figure had been broken (level 977, “C+” trend line), which speaks in favor of the gold’s rising to the level of intermediate resistance 1024 (“K” weekly trend line). But it’s now worth excluding the variant of downtrend development followed by drop to level 974, and possibly even to 940. � �� That’s why there are two variants of events to proceed: 1. Since the higher bound of “triangle” was broken up, we’re moving towards level 1024. This scenario is confirmed if the gold manages to hold ground above 994 and doesn’t drop any lower than 974. 2. “Z” trend line shows a strong resistance and the gold retreats to support 974, if it drops below level 984. Such fact will weaken the hope for continuation of the uptrend and getting to level 1024. That’s why, if the market will then go under level 974, it will get to support 940. � � Weekly�graph (from 09.06.09) �� The gold rose above level 977 (above the higher bound of “triangle” figure), which speaks that the market is supposed to approach target level 1115 soon. There is a resistance on the way up, level 1024 (“K” trend line), which the market will need to pass. So, while we’re trading under 1024, there is a probability of drop to level 990–977. If the gold eventually rises above 1024, there will be no obstacles on the way to 1115. �� Alternatively, in case the gold drops below level 940 (breaks the “C” trend line), it will get to level 863. �

GBP/USD forecast

Kolganov Anton — Tue, 13 Oct 2009 11:44:13 PDT

�H4 graph �� The pair is trading along a sideways trend slightly popping out “F-F+” trend. There is a very good probability of rise to level 1.6060 if the pair gets over level 1.5890. Next, a minor correction may follow to level 1.5825, yet the pair’s rising target will be set to level 1.6220 (K trendline) anyway. � � Daily graph (09.06.09) �� The pair rebounded from support level 1.6170 formed by the crossing of trend lines “H” (monthly trend line) and “D” (the lower bound of daily uptrend). This was followed by a drop below the lower bound of “C-C+” daily sideways trend with subsequent return to the channel. That fact speaks that there is a very strong support under the channel and now the pair will try to find a stronger resistance in order to test level 1.6170 again. But the pair may not find proper resistance since there are no strong resistances above level 1.6510, and by going above level 1.6510 the pair will break the “B-B+” daily downtrend, after which it is supposed to rise to level 1.6900. For the reasons above the pair either will turn from current levels for testing 1.6170, or it will eventually rise above level 1.6510. � �� Two variants of events to proceed are seen: 1. In case the pair rises above level 1.6510, it will get to resistance 1.6900 / 1.6950. 2. In case the pair drops below level 1.6070, it will get down to support 1.5480. � � Weekly graph (from 05.25.09) �� After getting over level 1.5300 (breaking the “Y-Y+” trend’s higher bound) the pair had set its target of growth to resistance level 1.6900 (“F” trend line). This level is meant to be reached in the course of “D-D+” uptrend. Upon reaching it, an intermediate resistance – level 1.6200 (“H” trend line and levels of Japanese candles) – will appear on the pair’s way. Due to the fact that 1.6200 is an important resistance, a correction is meant to follow from there and end up at support level 1.5300. Uptrend within the “D-D+” channel will be resumed from the same level and the pair will reach the target 1.6900. “D-D+” trend is completed in five waves. � � Monthly graph (from 05.25.09) �� Bounce off level 1.3900 (“R” trend line) had provoked a rapid growth of the pair. The peak of growth is meant to be found at level 1.6900 (“F” trend line). Upon reaching this level there will be two variants of events to develop: �� 1. Having bounced off level 1.6900 and after the “D-D+” weekly trend is broken, the pair will get to support 1.4355. � �� 2. If level 1.6900 is unable to show a sufficient resistance (the pair goes above this level), the pair will reach resistance 1.8530. �

EUR/USD forecast

Kolganov Anton — Tue, 13 Oct 2009 11:41:56 PDT

�H4 graph �� The pair is trading along an uptrend having the rising target set to resistance level 1.4935. There are no signs of possible turn of this uptrend so far. In case the pair drops below level 1.4700 (F trendline), it will get to 1.4580 (C+ trendline). � � Daily graph (from 09.06.09) �� The pair is trading along the “C-C+” weekly sideways trend between key levels 1.4500 (resistance) and 1.3900 (support). The trend is formed at crossing of monthly and weekly trend lines “E” (the lower bound of monthly sideways trend) and “Z” (weekly trend line). By touching those trend lines, the pair gains an opportunity either to rebound from them towards level 1.3285 or to rise above them to resistance level 1.4935. Looking into the “D-D+” trend, the pair is still trading along an uptrend. Level 1.4175 is crossed by the lower bound of the “flag” figure formed by “C2-C+” trend lines, which provides a temporary support. � �� Taking into consideration the present picture, two variants of events to proceed are seen: 1. In case the pair rises above level 1.4500, it will get to resistance 1.4935. In such case the “up-trending triangle” figure will be executed. 2. In case the pair drops below level 1.4175, it will retreat to support 1.3900 (the lower bound of “C-C+” trend). And on drop below 1.3900 (quit from “C-C+” and “D-D+” trends), it will get down to key support 1.3285. � � Weekly graph (from 09.06.09) �� The pair is trading within the “D-D+” uptrend and is set against crossing of monthly and weekly trend lines “E” (the lower bound of monthly sideways trend) and “Z” (weekly trend line). By touching those trend lines, the pair gains an opportunity either to rebound from them towards level 1.3285 or to rise above them to resistance level 1.4935. � �� Taking into consideration the present picture, two variants of events to proceed are seen: 1. In case the pair rises above level 1.4500, it will get to resistance 1.4935. In such case the “up-trending triangle” figure will be executed. 2. In case the pair drops below level 1.4175, it will retreat to support 1.3900 (the lower bound of “C-C+” trend). And on drop below 1.3900 (quit from “C-C+” and “D-D+” trends), it will get down to key support 1.3285. � � Monthly graph (from 05.24.09) �� Strategically, the graph shows that the pair is developing a downtrend having the target set to level 1.1000 (“Q” trend line). This situation took effect after the “P-P+” uptrend had been broken along with “E-E+” trend and “F” trend line. But there are reasons that until the maximum 1.4720 is updated, the pair is unable to develop a downtrend to 1.1000. That reasons are well seen on weekly graph. Besides, it’s a simple logic that the pair can’t go to 1.1000 from current levels prior to formation of a trend-continuing figure (like “flag”, which is being formed now) or a side trend which would update the maximum 1.4720 (basically, such side trend is the same “flag” figure). �� Above the level 1.4720 is an accumulation of resistance levels 1.4935 and 1.5300 (these levels are examined in detail at weekly graph). Hence, after updating the maximum 1.4720 the pair will push off 1.4935 or, if it will get over 1.4935, off 1.5300 (which is a key level). Accumulation of these resistances is meant to become a turning, key level for the pair; and a supporting point for the “flag” figure’s higher bound. From there, the market will develop a downtrend aimed at the figure’s lower bound, roughly at level 1.2800. After passing that level the “flag” figure will have been executed and the next dropping target will be set to level 1.1000 (“Q” trend line). Then, a correction is supposed to be performed from there to level 1.3000 and down again to 1.0000. �� I would like to note that the feeling arises as if the right shoulder of a “head and shoulders” trend-turning figure is being formed now, however we definitely won’t see a clear “head and shoulders” figure there, especially if the pair goes up to level 1.5300. The neckline will get falsely broken for multiple times due to invalid figure proportions. That’s why it is better to get oriented to the “flag” figure (which virtually is the right shoulder of a “head and shoulders” figure). �

GOLD forecast

Kolganov Anton — Wed, 09 Sep 2009 15:07:22 PDT

H4 graph �� The gold is on the way up, and it is supposed to reach the local target – resistance level 1025 (“K” trend line, see weekly graph). After having a rest at the higher bound of broken “B-B+” daily uptrend, the gold started some consolidation (a figure of trend continuation is being formed). In case the gold rises above level 1004, the up-trending momentum will gain strength again. Support is found at level 990. Otherwise, if the market drops below level 986, it will get to support 974 (the higher bound of the “triangle” figure) and the correction will endure. But if the gold succeeds going under level 969, the uptrend will be lost and soon replaced with a downtrend, which will has the dropping target set to level 948. � � Daily graph (from 09.06.09) �� The gold is consolidating at level 994 (the crossing of “Z” weekly trend line and “B+” – the higher bound of daily uptrend). This level is a key one and it determines further direction of the market for near future. As we can see, the higher bound of the “triangle” figure had been broken (level 977, “C+” trend line), which speaks in favor of the gold’s rising to the level of intermediate resistance 1024 (“K” weekly trend line). But it’s now worth excluding the variant of downtrend development followed by drop to level 974, and possibly even to 940. � �� That’s why there are two variants of events to proceed: 1. Since the higher bound of “triangle” was broken up, we’re moving towards level 1024. This scenario is confirmed if the gold manages to hold ground above 994 and doesn’t drop any lower than 974. 2. “Z” trend line shows a strong resistance and the gold retreats to support 974, if it drops below level 984. Such fact will weaken the hope for continuation of the uptrend and getting to level 1024. That’s why, if the market will then go under level 974, it will get to support 940.� � � Weekly�graph (from 09.06.09) �� The gold rose above level 977 (above the higher bound of “triangle” figure), which speaks that the market is supposed to approach target level 1115 soon. There is a resistance on the way up, level 1024 (“K” trend line), which the market will need to pass. So, while we’re trading under 1024, there is a probability of drop to level 990–977. If the gold eventually rises above 1024, there will be no obstacles on the way to 1115. �� Alternatively, in case the gold drops below level 940 (breaks the “C” trend line), it will get to level 863.� �

GBP/USD forecast

Kolganov Anton — Wed, 09 Sep 2009 15:06:00 PDT

H4 graph �� The pair is trading along the uptrend, which has a growth target set to a rather distant level 1.6900. Although that level is far away there are no serious resistances on the way up, so reaching that level is completely real. In order to continue the uptrend the pair needs to get over resistance 1.6590, while the nearest support is found at level 1.6535. The next support is located at level 1.6400 – a strong key level. We can speak about changing of current uptrend to a downtrend only if the pair drops below level 1.6365, and in such case the dropping target will be set to level 1.6170. � � Daily graph (09.06.09) �� The pair rebounded from support level 1.6170 formed by the crossing of trend lines “H” (monthly trend line) and “D” (the lower bound of daily uptrend). This was followed by a drop below the lower bound of “C-C+” daily sideways trend with subsequent return to the channel. That fact speaks that there is a very strong support under the channel and now the pair will try to find a stronger resistance in order to test level 1.6170 again. But the pair may not find proper resistance since there are no strong resistances above level 1.6510, and by going above level 1.6510 the pair will break the “B-B+” daily downtrend, after which it is supposed to rise to level 1.6900. For the reasons above the pair either will turn from current levels for testing 1.6170, or it will eventually rise above level 1.6510. � �� Two variants of events to proceed are seen: 1. In case the pair rises above level 1.6510, it will get to resistance 1.6900 / 1.6950. 2. In case the pair drops below level 1.6070, it will get down to support 1.5480. � � Weekly graph (from 05.25.09) �� After getting over level 1.5300 (breaking the “Y-Y+” trend’s higher bound) the pair had set its target of growth to resistance level 1.6900 (“F” trend line). This level is meant to be reached in the course of “D-D+” uptrend. Upon reaching it, an intermediate resistance – level 1.6200 (“H” trend line and levels of Japanese candles) – will appear on the pair’s way. Due to the fact that 1.6200 is an important resistance, a correction is meant to follow from there and end up at support level 1.5300. Uptrend within the “D-D+” channel will be resumed from the same level and the pair will reach the target 1.6900. “D-D+” trend is completed in five waves. � � Monthly graph (from 05.25.09) �� Bounce off level 1.3900 (“R” trend line) had provoked a rapid growth of the pair. The peak of growth is meant to be found at level 1.6900 (“F” trend line). Upon reaching this level there will be two variants of events to develop: �� 1. Having bounced off level 1.6900 and after the “D-D+” weekly trend is broken, the pair will get to support 1.4355. � �� 2. If level 1.6900 is unable to show a sufficient resistance (the pair goes above this level), the pair will reach resistance 1.8530. �

EUR/USD forecast

Kolganov Anton — Wed, 09 Sep 2009 15:04:33 PDT

ATTENTION, PLEASE! Announcement: From September 20 until October 1 I am completing a group of disciples for studying my trading system. Learning course duration is about 2–3 months. The number of disciples in the group is limited due to individual approach in learning, so I invite 2–3 persons. Read HERE for details. � From September 20 until October 1 I am on vacation, so forecasts will not be updated during this period. I apologize for any inconvenience. � � � � �H4 graph �� The pair is trading along the uptrend, which has a local growth target at level 1.4635 (“F” trend line). In case that level is passed, the next target level will be set to resistance 1.4719 (2008.12.18 high). It’s also worth reminding that after the pair rose above level 1.4550, it had broken the higher bound of an “up-trending triangle” figure, so the strategic target of the pair is now set to resistance level 1.4935. � �� If any correction happens, the pair is supposed to find the support at level 1.4515. Then the growth towards 1.4635 will be resumed. Otherwise, if the pair drops below level 1.4465, we can state the trend’s turn and the first local dropping target will be set to level 1.4355 (“E” trend line). � � Daily graph (from 09.06.09) �� The pair is trading along the “C-C+” weekly sideways trend between key levels 1.4500 (resistance) and 1.3900 (support). The trend is formed at crossing of monthly and weekly trend lines “E” (the lower bound of monthly sideways trend) and “Z” (weekly trend line). By touching those trend lines, the pair gains an opportunity either to rebound from them towards level 1.3285 or to rise above them to resistance level 1.4935. Looking into the “D-D+” trend, the pair is still trading along an uptrend. Level 1.4175 is crossed by the lower bound of the “flag” figure formed by “C2-C+” trend lines, which provides a temporary support. � �� Taking into consideration the present picture, two variants of events to proceed are seen: 1. In case the pair rises above level 1.4500, it will get to resistance 1.4935. In such case the “up-trending triangle” figure will be executed. 2. In case the pair drops below level 1.4175, it will retreat to support 1.3900 (the lower bound of “C-C+” trend). And on drop below 1.3900 (quit from “C-C+” and “D-D+” trends), it will get down to key support 1.3285. � � � Weekly graph (from 09.06.09) �� The pair is trading within the “D-D+” uptrend and is set against crossing of monthly and weekly trend lines “E” (the lower bound of monthly sideways trend) and “Z” (weekly trend line). By touching those trend lines, the pair gains an opportunity either to rebound from them towards level 1.3285 or to rise above them to resistance level 1.4935. � �� Taking into consideration the present picture, two variants of events to proceed are seen: 1. In case the pair rises above level 1.4500, it will get to resistance 1.4935. In such case the “up-trending triangle” figure will be executed. 2. In case the pair drops below level 1.4175, it will retreat to support 1.3900 (the lower bound of “C-C+” trend). And on drop below 1.3900 (quit from “C-C+” and “D-D+” trends), it will get down to key support 1.3285. � � Monthly graph (from 05.24.09) �� Strategically, the graph shows that the pair is developing a downtrend having the target set to level 1.1000 (“Q” trend line). This situation took effect after the “P-P+” uptrend had been broken along with “E-E+” trend and “F” trend line. But there are reasons that until the maximum 1.4720 is updated, the pair is unable to develop a downtrend to 1.1000. That reasons are well seen on weekly graph. Besides, it’s a simple logic that the pair can’t go to 1.1000 from current levels prior to formation of a trend-continuing figure (like “flag”, which is being formed now) or a side trend which would update the maximum 1.4720 (basically, such side trend is the same “flag” figure). �� Above the level 1.4720 is an accumulation of resistance levels 1.4935 and 1.5300 (these levels are examined in detail at weekly graph). Hence, after updating the maximum 1.4720 the pair will push off 1.4935 or, if it will get over 1.4935, off 1.5300 (which is a key level). Accumulation of these resistances is meant to become a turning, key level for the pair; and a supporting point for the “flag” figure’s higher bound. From there, the market will develop a downtrend aimed at the figure’s lower bound, roughly at level 1.2800. After passing that level the “flag” figure will have been executed and the next dropping target will be set to level 1.1000 (“Q” trend line). Then, a correction is supposed to be performed from there to level 1.3000 and down again to 1.0000. �� I would like to note that the feeling arises as if the right shoulder of a “head and shoulders” trend-turning figure is being formed now, however we definitely won’t see a clear “head and shoulders” figure there, especially if the pair goes up to level 1.5300. The neckline will get falsely broken for multiple times due to invalid figure proportions. That’s why it is better to get oriented to the “flag” figure (which virtually is the right shoulder of a “head and shoulders” figure). �

GBP/USD forecast

Kolganov Anton — Mon, 07 Sep 2009 14:22:14 PDT

H1 graph �� The pair rebounded from resistance 1.6440 (the higher bound of “B2-B+” downtrend). During the rebound a “double top” trend-turning figure had been formed and executed, so the pair’s next drop target is now set to level 1.6310 – the lower bound of “Z-Z+” sideways trend. That sideways trend comprises another “double top” trend-turning figure itself, and the figure mentioned above is the right shoulder of this one. Generally speaking, a “diamond” figure is also seen within this large double top, but the “Z-Z+” has clearly outlined itself, so we should consider it primary. In case the pair drops below level 1.6290, the large figure will be executed and the next drop target will be set to level 1.6180. But first the pair needs to get under 1.6350 and keep itself from going above 1.6415, or else the whole trading plan is cancelled. � � H4 graph� �� The pair is trading under level 1.6335 (below the “C” trend line), which speaks in favor of dropping to level 1.5950. Some correction is developing now, which is supposed to be finished at 1.6335. I suggest selling from current levels with a stop set above 1.6385 and the target set to 1.5950. � �� Alternatively, in case the market rises above level 1.6385, a “double top” trend-turning figure will be formed and the pair will set its target of growth to level 1.6510 and over. And if it then will rise above 1.6510, it will get to a huge free upper area, which it will be able to pass easily. If it will go that way, the target will be set to level 1.6900. � � Daily graph (09.06.09) �� The pair rebounded from support level 1.6170 formed by the crossing of trend lines “H” (monthly trend line) and “D” (the lower bound of daily uptrend). This was followed by a drop below the lower bound of “C-C+” daily sideways trend with subsequent return to the channel. That fact speaks that there is a very strong support under the channel and now the pair will try to find a stronger resistance in order to test level 1.6170 again. But the pair may not find proper resistance since there are no strong resistances above level 1.6510, and by going above level 1.6510 the pair will break the “B-B+” daily downtrend, after which it is supposed to rise to level 1.6900. For the reasons above the pair either will turn from current levels for testing 1.6170, or it will eventually rise above level 1.6510. � �� Two variants of events to proceed are seen: 1. In case the pair rises above level 1.6510, it will get to resistance 1.6900 / 1.6950. 2. In case the pair drops below level 1.6070, it will get down to support 1.5480. � � � Weekly graph (from 05.25.09) �� After getting over level 1.5300 (breaking the “Y-Y+” trend’s higher bound) the pair had set its target of growth to resistance level 1.6900 (“F” trend line). This level is meant to be reached in the course of “D-D+” uptrend. Upon reaching it, an intermediate resistance – level 1.6200 (“H” trend line and levels of Japanese candles) – will appear on the pair’s way. Due to the fact that 1.6200 is an important resistance, a correction is meant to follow from there and end up at support level 1.5300. Uptrend within the “D-D+” channel will be resumed from the same level and the pair will reach the target 1.6900. “D-D+” trend is completed in five waves. � � Monthly graph (from 05.25.09) �� Bounce off level 1.3900 (“R” trend line) had provoked a rapid growth of the pair. The peak of growth is meant to be found at level 1.6900 (“F” trend line). Upon reaching this level there will be two variants of events to develop: �� 1. Having bounced off level 1.6900 and after the “D-D+” weekly trend is broken, the pair will get to support 1.4355. � �� 2. If level 1.6900 is unable to show a sufficient resistance (the pair goes above this level), the pair will reach resistance 1.8530. �

GOLD forecast

Kolganov Anton — Sun, 06 Sep 2009 11:14:54 PDT

H4 graph �� The gold is consolidating at level 994 (the crossing of “Z” weekly trend line and “B+” – the higher bound of daily uptrend). This level is a key one and it determines further direction of the market for near future. As we can see, the higher bound of the “triangle” figure had been broken (level 977, “C+” trend line), which speaks in favor of the gold’s rising to the level of intermediate resistance 1024 (“K” weekly trend line). But it’s now worth excluding the variant of downtrend development followed by drop to level 974, and possibly even to 940. � �� That’s why there are two variants of events to proceed: 1. Since the higher bound of “triangle” was broken up, we’re moving towards level 1024. This scenario is confirmed if the gold manages to hold ground above 994 and doesn’t drop any lower than 974. 2. “Z” trend line shows a strong resistance and the gold retreats to support 974, if it drops below level 984. Such fact will weaken the hope for continuation of the uptrend and getting to level 1024. That’s why, if the market will then go under level 974, it will get to support 940. � � Daily graph (from 09.06.09) �� The gold is consolidating at level 994 (the crossing of “Z” weekly trend line and “B+” – the higher bound of daily uptrend). This level is a key one and it determines further direction of the market for near future. As we can see, the higher bound of the “triangle” figure had been broken (level 977, “C+” trend line), which speaks in favor of the gold’s rising to the level of intermediate resistance 1024 (“K” weekly trend line). But it’s now worth excluding the variant of downtrend development followed by drop to level 974, and possibly even to 940. � �� That’s why there are two variants of events to proceed: 1. Since the higher bound of “triangle” was broken up, we’re moving towards level 1024. This scenario is confirmed if the gold manages to hold ground above 994 and doesn’t drop any lower than 974. 2. “Z” trend line shows a strong resistance and the gold retreats to support 974, if it drops below level 984. Such fact will weaken the hope for continuation of the uptrend and getting to level 1024. That’s why, if the market will then go under level 974, it will get to support 940.� � � Weekly�graph (from 09.06.09) �� The gold rose above level 977 (above the higher bound of “triangle” figure), which speaks that the market is supposed to approach target level 1115 soon. There is a resistance on the way up, level 1024 (“K” trend line), which the market will need to pass. So, while we’re trading under 1024, there is a probability of drop to level 990–977. If the gold eventually rises above 1024, there will be no obstacles on the way to 1115. �� Alternatively, in case the gold drops below level 940 (breaks the “C” trend line), it will get to level 863.� �