High Probability Trading

Lonely Trader says good bye

noreply@blogger.com (HPT) — Tue, 27 Oct 2009 06:43:00 +0000

Out of nowhere Lonely Trader has decided to stop blogging to work on his trading more and other ventures. Good Luck LT, I enjoyed your blog while it lasted.

Money Show Trading Videos

noreply@blogger.com (HPT) — Sun, 25 Oct 2009 18:22:00 +0000

Bollinger Explains Four Ways to Trade the Markets

Bollinger Explains Four Ways to Trade the Markets @ Yahoo! Video

Trading Psychology and Common Problems for Traders

Trading Psychology and Common Problems for Traders @ Yahoo! Video

Traders - What's the Squeeze Play?

Traders - What's the Squeeze Play? @ Yahoo! Video

Trading Expert Explains Intermarket Relationships

Trading Expert Explains Intermarket Relationships @ Yahoo! Video

Wayne McDonell Discusses How to Benefit from the Carry Trade

Wayne McDonell Discusses How to Benefit from the Carry Trade @ Yahoo! Video

InteractiveBrokers new webpage

noreply@blogger.com (HPT) — Fri, 23 Oct 2009 02:32:00 +0000

The Interactivebrokers main webpage has a new design.

Now how about improving the charts?

InteractiveBrokers Live Data feed down

noreply@blogger.com (HPT) — Thu, 22 Oct 2009 07:43:00 +0000

For some odd reason the Live account data feed is having problems and the Sim data feed is running on Interactive Brokers and I'm not the only one with this problem- The time is currently 3am EST.
Tradestation and Zen Fire data feeds are running smoothly.

UPDATE- IB working FINE again.

The 5 year note bond futures ZF looks very weak considering yesterdays late day selloff. Watching the CAD, EURO, and Crude Oil for direction.

AIG broke first on yesterdays afternoon selloff. Lets not forget the rest of the banks and REAL ESTATE (IYR).

The Best Dr. Brett Steenbarger Trading Psychology Posts

noreply@blogger.com (HPT) — Thu, 15 Oct 2009 06:57:00 +0000

I've put together a list of posts I find particularly helpful when it comes to trading psychology.

Dr. Brett goes over A Few Trading Psychology Observations

I'd like to highlight a few key points I like from his post-
- Traders develop plans and trade patterns that simply don't work; they're based on randomness.
- 90% don't/can't sustain the process of keeping a substantive journal. Among the group that does journal, well over 90% of the entries are about themselves and their P/L. I almost never see journal entries devoted to figuring out markets.
-In every performance field of note--from Olympic athletics to Broadway--performers spend more time in practice than in formal performance. That is how expertise develops. The ratio of "practice" time (time spent on markets outside of trading) to trading time is a worthwhile indicator of a trader's prospective success.

-"It's a common observation that traders fail because they don't stick to their plans. My experience is different. Traders develop plans and trade patterns that simply don't work; they're based on randomness. When the patterns don't work, traders become frustrated and abandon their plans. So it looks like lack of discipline causes trading failure. But planning doesn't create success; sound planning does. Sticking to plans based on randomness is no virtue."

How do traders enhance there trading skills while the market is closed?
-Back Test your strategies (are these strategies profitable?)
-Review your charts and setups (Are you taking Impulse/emotional trades or backtested planned trades?)
-Review your past trades, look at trade frequency, share size, max drawdown, max gain
-Review the trading day with tick replay feature if your charting software provides that feature
-Trade on a trading simulator if your broker has that feature
-Review your trading journal to find trading mistakes you keep making, so you can focus on improving those problem areas
-Record the Trading day and review it later using screen capture software like Camtasia studio or !Quick Screen Capture

Denial as a Trading Motivation

Trading on Tilt: Regaining Self Control

HPT ATS Trade Statistics

noreply@blogger.com (HPT) — Fri, 25 Sep 2009 20:39:00 +0000

I'm still working on my ATS. I plan on posting its results on my blog on a regular basis to give this blog more content and help me track its progress.
I have the ATS sending orders to an Interactive Brokers Simulated Account.
Today I took the same trade that the ATS fired and it worked.
I am still working on this ATS for trading NQ.

The ATS only signaled 1 trade today. A 2pt set stop and 3 pt target we're fixed in place. I manually adjusted the stop down and the stop was hit for 1.5pt profit. The trade statistics can be seen in the picture.

I think I will provide a full view of the ATS trade statistics for all the trades taken at the end of the trading week/month and put these results in an EXCEL/ GOOGLE Pivot table as shown below. Perhaps when I accumulate more statistics on the trading I will provide a chart of the P/L performance along with the corresponding trade statistics. I love Pivot tables.

HPT ATS TRADE STATISTICS

PIVOT TABLE

How to Run Multiple Instances of QuoteTracker Trading Software

noreply@blogger.com (HPT) — Thu, 24 Sep 2009 16:18:00 +0000

How to run two instances of QuoteTracker

Make a copy of the entire QuoteTracker folder, not just the stocks.exe file. (Ex. If your current folder for QT is "c:\program files\quotetracker" make a folder "c:\program files\quotetracker2" (or whatever)). Then copy the entire contents of the "c:\program files\quotetracker" folder (including sub-folders) into the "c:\program files\quotetracker2" folder.

After that, make a shortcut to the stocks.exe file in the new c:\program files\quotetracker2 folder. Your original shortcut should point to "c:\program files\quotetracker\stocks.exe" and the new shortcut should point to "c:\program files\quotetracker2\stocks.exe"

Both of these shortcuts now need the "allowdup" command line argument added to them in the Target box, so that they will look like this:
"c:\program files\quotetracker\stocks.exe" allowdup
"c:\program files\quotetracker2\stocks.exe" allowdup
(Note: allowdup is outside of the quotes and there is a space before it.)

After that final step, you can double click the 2 shortcuts and each will start a separate instance of QT.

For more answers to FAQ go to the QT forum.

A Sample Trading Plan

noreply@blogger.com (HPT) — Mon, 21 Sep 2009 05:24:00 +0000

Jeff Quinto has a video on the CME website on how to setup a trading plan.
Here are the key topics Jeff suggests and my answers:

Which contract or stock will I trade?

I'm trading stocks and futures.

What time period will I trade?

I trade the first 3 hours of market open primarily, while liquidity is best.

What setups will I take?

I discretionary trade the automated signals I have created. I determine if the current market condition suites any trade signals my system generates and then I choose whether or not to take the trade.

What Risk parameters do I use?

I have a max daily stop loss in place in case I make too many bad trades.

What do I do after 3 losing trades?

I determine if I should stop trading based on if I'm feeling frustrated or if I should keep trading my signals until my daily max loss is reached.

What is my strategy for increasing or decreasing my trading size?

I trade 1-2 contracts for the initial position and only add to winners on clear trending trades (market internals heavily favor bulls/bears -ie TICK and NYSE A/D favor bulls/bears).

How many ticks or points am I trying to make per day?

I don't have a set target, I only take what I can get.

How many trades do I make per day?

I only make 3 to 5 trades per day on average. Most trading days only make 3 significant swings, so my primary goal is to be apart of the primary move or catch a reversal swing or continuation trade.

How long do I plan to hold winners or losers?

I hold winners as long as possible, scaling out as I see fit. I hold losers for as long as I need to as long as my stop is not hit.

How do I record my progress?

I keep a journal of my trades with trade statistics and a chart showing where I placed my trades.

Who do I call if my computer or internet has a problem?

I have stops in place for all my trades so I'm covered, however I can also access my account from my phone or call my broker.

QuoteTracker currency commodity bond stock futures chart layout

noreply@blogger.com (HPT) — Thu, 03 Sep 2009 16:07:00 +0000

Gold is nearing 1000, JPY is the most bullish currency, the Canadian dollar and Peso are weakest currencies. Bond futures (ZN -10 yr bond future) has good correlation with JPY lately. ES and Crude correlation has also been good lately.

Market profile double distribution trend day

noreply@blogger.com (HPT) — Tue, 01 Sep 2009 23:04:00 +0000

The Trading Library- Basics of Market Profile-
Today was a Double distribution trend day, characterized by two volume nodes and the session ending near its high/low.

The Goldman Sachs Advantage

noreply@blogger.com (HPT) — Tue, 01 Sep 2009 01:27:00 +0000

Worthwhile Links

noreply@blogger.com (HPT) — Mon, 17 Aug 2009 19:38:00 +0000

12 Economic Bubbles That May Burst from Business Pundit

Economic Data Blog

Brace for a Wave of Foreclosures, the Dam is About to Break From Mish Econ Analysis

Bubble Meter -A housing bubble blog

The math of gambling From NewScientist

Gorden Gecko the Frog

noreply@blogger.com (HPT) — Sun, 16 Aug 2009 15:55:00 +0000

Update on 10k Thrown away

noreply@blogger.com (HPT) — Fri, 07 Aug 2009 04:17:00 +0000

Glad to hear Ainkurn and TradeitUp are still trading and doing well, keeping busy as always. Checkout their update at 10kthrownaway.com

Backtesting Data feed missing values

noreply@blogger.com (HPT) — Wed, 05 Aug 2009 06:49:00 +0000

It's somewhat frustrating to be backtesting strategies and find that you have tons of holes in your data. From my experience Interactive brokers and TDameritrade are not reliable sources at providing accurate COMPLETE INTRADAY data when using their backfilling services. If your a serious trader I don't think you should be using them for gathering INTRADAY data and testing INTRADAY strategies on. They are fine at providing End of Day data, but I'd much rather use yahoo for EOD stuff.

Where have all the Trading Blogs Gone?

noreply@blogger.com (HPT) — Tue, 04 Aug 2009 05:10:00 +0000

A lot of the blogs I use to read of real traders are gone. I'm glad to hear Dinosaur trader is doing well and Trader Jules is still at it.
I was just reading an old blog that several of us older traders collaborated on, called the TRADING AXIOM, and I was surprised at how good some of the posts were.
I'm not sure where the trading Axiom traders all went(Prospectus, LP, and where is Mr White Folks?), but if you are out there, leave me a comment, I'd like to know how your doing.(I know prospectus quit, but still wondering what he's up to).
I think many would like to know how Traders Bubs, and the 2 guys at 10k thrown away are doing since going away last year.Even though these guys may not be trading, I'd still like to hear how they are doing. There are many others out there I didn't mention. Anyone got any good Trading Blogs they want to share?

Update- Thanks for the comments and updates guys.

I'd like to start the Trading Axiom again if anybody is interested, let me know.
I've got some material focused on market statistics that I'm going to be sharing either way.
highprobabilitytrading AT gmail.com

New Market for California IOUs

noreply@blogger.com (HPT) — Thu, 16 Jul 2009 19:55:00 +0000

Banks may have stopped accepting California's IOUs, but a new market for buying and selling such warrants has launched through the SecondMarket service. How does it work? Stacey Delo has the interview.From MarketWatch

Bernie Madoff Countdown Clock

noreply@blogger.com (HPT) — Thu, 16 Jul 2009 08:29:00 +0000

I made a Bernie Madoff Countdown clock after seeing it on Letterman tonight.

About 150 years to go, maybe only 130 if he's good.

Emerging Market Spotlight - China - Bloomberg

noreply@blogger.com (HPT) — Fri, 10 Jul 2009 14:51:00 +0000

Strong Demand still in railroads, coal, water, oil, and agriculture commodities.

What happened to the Budweiser Wassup guys?

noreply@blogger.com (HPT) — Wed, 08 Jul 2009 17:04:00 +0000

Remember the good old days-

This is them in 2008, the part where Dookie looks at his stocks is hilarious-

What are you Blogging about Video?

noreply@blogger.com (HPT) — Wed, 08 Jul 2009 07:48:00 +0000

What are they blogging about? Personality, topic and motivation in blogs

Alastair J. Gill

CME Futures news

noreply@blogger.com (HPT) — Tue, 07 Jul 2009 17:50:00 +0000

Its been a long time now since the CME bought out CBOT, but now the CBOT is officially going to be decommissioned sometime during the middle of this month.

The CME is also increasing the TICK increment on Bond futures to help improve liquidity. I'm wondering how brokers will adjust margin requirements on bond futures after this change in TICK increment.

CME Group, the world's largest and most diverse derivatives exchange, today announced plans to increase the minimum trading increment for U.S. Treasury Bond futures to 1/32nd from the current setting of 1/2 of 1/32nd, effective August 30. The change will be applied to all expiration months. The minimum trading increments for futures intermonth and intercommodity spreads as well as options will be unchanged. This contract is listed with, and subject to, the rules and regulations of CBOT.

The CME is also making changes to the S&P Financial SPCTR Index and the S&P Technology SPCTR Index futures contracts.

CME Group, the world's largest and most diverse derivatives exchange, announced today that the multiplier for the S&P Financial SPCTR Index and the S&P Technology SPCTR Index futures contracts will each double to $250 times the index price beginning Monday, July 27. Along with the increase in the contract multiplier, the new minimum tick size will also double to $25.00 per contract. These contracts are listed with, and subject to, the rules and regulations of CME.

Goldman Sachs Secrets Revealed

noreply@blogger.com (HPT) — Mon, 06 Jul 2009 05:36:00 +0000

Over the weekend Goldman Sachs had an ex-employee "accidentally collect" some files that contained the codes to Goldman Sachs Automated Trading System.
From CNBC-

The criminal case began to unfold on the evening of July 3, when Aleynikov was arrested by FBI agents at Newark Airport after returning from Chicago. Aleynikov apparently had just started a job with another big firm in Chicago after leaving his previous employer in New York in early June. It appears that the financial institution allegedly victimized by Aleynikov had alerted federal authorities that its former employee might be up to no good.

The Accused thief's name is Sergey Aleynikov-
Part of his LinkedIn Profile-

Unemployment June 2009- Rises to 9.5%

noreply@blogger.com (HPT) — Thu, 02 Jul 2009 14:48:00 +0000

WSJ June 2009 Unemployment Report

OECD Stats World Unemployment Report (Spain is the highest at 18.1%)

Trading Economics China Unemployment Report

NinjaTrader Connect- Login Failed

noreply@blogger.com (HPT) — Wed, 01 Jul 2009 13:09:00 +0000

Ever have a problem connecting to your data feed when using Ninjatrader while simultaneously using QuoteTracker? If you have quotes running on QT before you connect to your data feed on Ninjatrader you may get a connection login failed. In order to resolve this, stop the quotes in QT, then restart Ninjatrader and connect your data feed in Ninjatrader first, then start quotes in QuoteTracker.