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Matt Wieters did not hit 30 HR or notch 100 RBI this season. So is he a disappointment? Yes and No. He is going to end up a perennial All-Star, but it will take some time for him to make adjustments. Those adjustments have begun to produce results in September as he is hitting .366 this month. He is going to be a Top 5 catcher in 2010 whether you like it or not. He has fantasy stud written all over him.

Matt Wieters - Icon SMI

Rafael Furcal has been consistently a fantasy ghost this season giving owners a reason to consider him a player on the decline. Then along came September and all of a sudden he is en fuego. Furcal is hitting .345 this month with 2 jacks and 4 SB’s. The speed has been absent until now, so this is a tremendous treat for those that remained patient with him. DD would run him out there in any format while he is this scorching hot.

Matt Thornton is positioned to be in line for save chances for the White Sox following the injury to Bobby Jenks. Thornton is a lefty with an imposing presence and should be good for all formats in search of last minute saves. All teams have less than 10 games remaining, so you should only expect a handful of saves at most.

Nick Blackburn has won his last 2 starts and is positioned to have a pair of outings during the final week. Those two facts are about the only reason to consider Blackburn a reasonable alternative. He has a 4.18 ERA on the season with average strikeout numbers. If you need wins and want to roll the dice he should be available in many formats for the final week.

Wade LeBlanc has quietly put together a nice respectable 3.93 ERA with 19 K’s over his 34.1 innings pitched. He is set to face Arizona tomorrow and the Giants next week in his final start. NL only owners should have him active.

Most Dropped

Yovani Gallardo was shut down to keep his innings pitched in check. He can be dropped in non-keeper leagues, but should be a Top 20 stud next season for those in deep keeper formats.

Marco Scutaro is done for the season with a right heal injury. Scutaro put together a nice season and will likely sign a big contract that will eventually suck the life out the organization that believes he will repeat his ’09 performance. 2010 bust candidate.

Bobby Jenks and his colorful facial hair are now officially done for the season with right calf muscle issue. He has seen his velocity decrease and carries too much weight meaning you had better draft Matt Thornton next season as a handcuff if you pay up for Jenks. Let the buyer beware.

Rich Harden caught lightning in a bottle this season as he managed to make 26 starts. His strikeouts continued to be awesome, but the ERA jumped up to 4.09. He has been shut down for the season and will once again be a lottery ticket on draft day that will likely disappoint if you expect 200 innings.

Flip That Two Start Pitcher

The rules are simple: Find SP’s with two starts in the upcoming scoring period that are generally available in 50% or more leagues. Our goal is to maximize value for the coming week and then dump him for next week’s choice. Flips can be a risky proposition and should only be completed with the assistance of Double Down or under close supervision of another Fantasy Baseball Geek.

Wade Davis is my choice for this year’s final flip. He has the upside to be a #2 IMO and has shown glimpses of his potential already during 3 out of 4 of his starts. Start #1 will be at home against Jeremy Guthrie and the Baltimore Orioles. Need I say more? Start #2 will be at home against AJ Burnett and the NY Yankees. Do you expect the Yankees to rest several regulars on the last day of the season? I do. All of the evidence presented to you should tell that the Geeks thank you for all the support and to Flip That Two-Start Pitcher.

Whether you love me or hate me I am usually right. Keep the emails coming: doubledown@fantasybaseballgeeks.com

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Robinson Tejeda has strung together 3 solid efforts in a row for the Royals this month and has a surprising 3.09 ERA on the season. There are several red flags that should cause you to pause before getting too excited. Tejeda has a BB/9 of 5.9 and too many free passes will eventually get you into big trouble. He has a low BABIP of .252, which means he has been a bit lucky when balls are hit into play. Tejeda has a career ERA of 4.50 and a WHIP of 1.468, which screams below average. Factor in that he has the Royals unassuming offense behind him and this recent flurry of success becomes much less enticing. DD would advise spot starting him in AL only, but you had better buckle your seatbelt because a ratio implosion is imminent.

Daisuke Matsuzaka - Icon SMI

Casey McGehee came out of nowhere this season to post a .304 BA, 15 jacks, 58 RBI, and 51 runs thus far. For a good part of the season he has oddly been in a platoon with Craig Counsell, which is frankly baffling to me. So you have a young player that is stepping up his performance and you spell him every other day with a veteran that has been essentially a career utility player? McGehee is not fleet of foot, so his .324 BABIP makes his .304 BA likely to dip into the .285 range in the years ahead. He should be active in NL only and deep mixed leagues at the MI slot. You should also target him very late on draft day 2010 if he slips.

Hiroki Kuroda has been a real bright spot for the Dodgers and fantasy owners during the second half as he has posted a 4-1 record and 3.04 ERA after the All-Star break. There is a ton to like here. We have a veteran pitcher with solid ratios in a pitchers park on a great team. DD would start him in all formats.

Freddy Garcia has picked up a couple of wins this month for the White Sox, but this is a no longer a guy with growth potential in his 20’s. Garcia is 34 and is grinding it out as a different kind of pitcher than he was 7 or 8 years ago. He is another spot play because I fear a very destructive outing will be in the works. He has the Royals lined up next, so that might be OK. AL only owners should pick him up, but all other formats should be careful.

Daisuke Matsuzaka made his long awaited return to the Red Sox on 9/15 earning a win over the feisty Angels. Are there any hitters in that lineup not hitting over .300? Dice-K worked efficiently and actually was going after hitters instead of incessantly nibbling. Sometimes you have to trust your stuff and he does possess a very affective arsenal. There is word that he has lost some weight and gained some focus. DD loves talent and would run him out there in all formats. Dice has something to prove and as an outstanding offense behind him.

Most Dropped

Matt Diaz meet Nate McLouth. Nate McLouth meet Matt Diaz. Nate is back and Ryan Church is healthy meaning there is a donnybrook for playing time in the Braves outfield and Diaz is losing AB’s. It is amazing that he is hitting .320 with 10 jacks and 49 RBI in 328 AB’s yet he is finding it difficult to get at bats.

Justin Morneau is done for the season with a stress fracture in his back. He is still an elite 1B, but injuries are tricky and you have to remember this one come draft day 2010.

Roy Oswalt is now officially done for the season with a back and hip issues. He was sporting a 4.12 ERA with only 8 wins, so this not the same guy you owned in ’04 or ’05.

Alfonso Soriano is yet another player officially done for the year with knee issues. Anytime you have a player capable of 30/30 that does not come even close to it is a tough thing to swallow. Move him down a tick next season as he is another year older.

Alex Rios has been very disappointing this season hitting only .242. This is a buying opportunity and a player to target as an undervalued rebound candidate in 2010. DD is calling for 30/30 next season as he is still in his peak hitting years. Jackpot.

Flip That Two Start Pitcher

The rules are simple: Find SP’s with two starts in the upcoming scoring period that are generally available in 50% or more leagues. Our goal is to maximize value for the coming week and then dump him for next week’s choice. Flips can be a risky proposition and should only be completed with the assistance of Double Down or under close supervision of another Fantasy Baseball Geek.

Ryan Rowland-Smith is my choice this week and it is not because I heart hyphens. He has been extremely efficient of late, which has translated into him pitching late into games. Pitching late into games usually generates more win opportunities and that is what we are here for kiddies. Start #1 will be in Tampa Bay against Jeff Neimann. Start #2 will be at Toronto against Brian Tallet. A ll of the evidence presented to you should tell you to purchase numbered Jason Heyward autographed baseball cards while the prices are still within reason and to Flip That Two-Start Pitcher.

Whether you love me or hate me I am usually right. Keep the emails coming: doubledown@fantasybaseballgeeks.com

September is in full swing and playoff races are taking shape. Meanwhile, many teams are auditioning for roles in 2010. Here is a quick look at some names to watch for next year’s draft.

Carlos Gonzalez - Icon SMI

Travis Snider, OF Toronto Blue Jays…Snider was given the keys to the car but he drove into a wall in April and got sent down. His time in AAA was well spent with 14 homers and 40 RBI in just 48 games; not to mention an absurd 1.094 OPS. The Jays have given Travis a reprieve from his grounding and his power is starting to translate in the form of two homeruns this week alone. With Lind, Hill and Snider, Toronto may actually be able to field a competitive lineup next year. Now if they could just unload Vernon Wells!

Carlos Gonzalez, OF Colorado Rockies…When the Zim was asked to name his lesser known young star-to-be his choice was Carlos Gonzalez. Luckily it is a marathon and not a sprint and Carlos has shown why he was such a highly regarded prospect (1.048 OPS in AAA in 2009/ .868 with the big club, not too shabby). His combination of power and speed reminds me of another Carlos (Beltran that is). A 20/20 season seems like a lock if Colorado sticks with Gonzalez as their starter next year which is looking more likely week after week. He has been a big part of their late season run at the playoffs.

Madison Bumgarner, SP San Francisco Giants…It took some injuries for “Bummy” to get his big break and this slinger did not disappoint, striking out 4 in 5 1/3. The only runs allowed were 2 solo homeruns. Welcome to the show kid! Everyone can hit the heater here! If his minor league stats are a sign of things to come (12-2 1.85 ERA) Lincecum, Bumgarner and Cain could be the best trio in the league someday. He will have a rotation spot next year most likely starting in May to limit his innings.

Josh Thole, C New York Mets…The Mets need a catcher in the worst way and Josh Thole is getting a serious look. He has all of the tools behind the plate and a solid minor league track record of being a steady contact hitter. Power is likely to develop later according to scouts but a catcher that can hit .300 is always valuable. Look at Jason Kendall’s Pirate days. Keep an eye on the situation in the offseason as the Mets are sure to bid adieu to Brian Schneider and Omir Santos is not exactly Gary Carter or even Gary Varsho for that matter.

Colby Rasmus, OF St. Louis Cardinals…Rasmus has taken his lumps this year and St. Louis is rushing him a tad, but there is a good chance he will be the starting center fielder for the Cards next April. He has shown flashes that should provide confidence that he can hit big league pitching. His athleticism has hidden his short comings and he will catch up soon enough. Get him cheap while you can. He could be the next Nate McLouth for a much better value.

HELPFUL HINT: These kids are getting their feet wet and next year it will be time to dive in. Use your noodle and jump in after them before you miss out on free swim. Enough pool metaphors for you?

-SoZ

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Seth Smith is en fuego. Smith has actually been on fire for most of the year yet he always seems to find himself on the wrong end of a platoon. The Rockies will say “let’s sit him against left handed pitching”. Smith is hitting .311 against lefties over 45 at bats this season, so that makes no sense. This month he is hitting .447 with 4 HR and 14 RBI during the Rockies 10 games. It almost seems that Colorado coaches and management have become so enamored with some of their other ultra talented prospects that they forget just how good Smith can be. At this point in the season you have to start the hot hand and Smith is that guy. All formats should have him active.

Seth Smith - Icon SMI

Ryan Madson seems to now be in control of the 9^th inning and save situations for the Phillies. Madson has good stuff, but it is a little telling that he too has not been “lights out” in the role this season. He is 6 for 11 in save opportunities. The ratios are solid and the team will obviously provide him with ample chances, so all formats should make him a waiver wire priority if you need saves.

Wade Davis is a big reason why Scott Kazmir was expendable for the Tampa Bay Rays. Davis has a high ceiling and projects in my eyes as a solid #2 with the ability to become a legit ace. He has a big league ready fastball with movement, a potent curve, and a well above average slider. He should give owners close to a strikeout an inning. Davis will have his blow ups sprinkled in during the initial learning curve, but you have to consider him a great match-up play for the remainder of 2009. He is a player to really monitor closely in deep keeper leagues.

Juan Uribe has always had good pop and streaky tendencies. This year we see more of the same as he has been scorching in September with 4 jacks and is hitting over .300 for the month. DD is all about playing the hot hand, but Uribe has a large body of work in which he has damaged many an owners batting average. He does qualify at 3B, SS, and 2B making him useful in NL only, but not advisable in mixed formats.

Madison Bumgarner made his debut this week for the Giants in place of the injured Tim Lincecum. This was a big deal as Mad Bum is considered by almost everyone as one of the elite prospect arms in all of baseball. I did not get to watch the whole game, but in viewing the highlights he seemed to have only an average fastball in terms of velocity and his much-heralded offspeed stuff did not impress. He is still only 20 years old and loaded with talent, so keeper league owners have to stash him.

Chris B. Young has been one of the bigger non-injury related disappointments of the ’09 season. CBY was so bad that he went to the minors to clear his head. Things seem to have improved and he has jacked 5 HR in the last week alone. The talent is there for him to be a true 30/30 contributor, but he will have to continue to hone his approach if he wants to get that BA into respectable territory. It appears that the D-Backs are giving him PT, so owners in NL only need him active and deep leagues with desperate owners should roll the dice.

Most Dropped

Grady Sizemore is done for the season and had surgery on his elbow this week. Much has been written about where he will be drafted next season, but DD expects first round value and a 30/30 campaign.

Carlos Pena is done for the season with a two broken fingers on his left hand. You know what you are going to get from Pena as a true 3 outcomes type of guy.

Adam Jones is now officially done for the season with a bum ankle. He should move way up draft boards in 2010 as he continues to improve on this season’s impressive effort.

J.P. Howelllooked like a man made for the Closer role until some recent struggles. Until he is officially removed owners should stay the course with him.

Flip That Two Start Pitcher

The rules are simple: Find SP’s with two starts in the upcoming scoring period that are generally available in 50% or more leagues. Our goal is to maximize value for the coming week and then dump him for next week’s choice. Flips can be a risky proposition and should only be completed with the assistance of Double Down or under close supervision of another Fantasy Baseball Geek.

The experiment continues this week as I simply go with the most talented pitcher available that meets our criteria regardless of match-up and see how that goes. Jason Hammel has had a mediocre season, but he does have the hot hitting playoff hungry Rockies offense behind him. Start #1 will be at SF against Tim Lincecum. The Lincecum factor is a huge negative, but Hammel does pull a better pitchers park. Start #2 will be at Arizona against Billy Buckner. We hope the Rockies pull an ’86 Met’s against the ’09 version of Buckner. A ll of the evidence presented to you should tell you to that H2H is a flawed scoring system and to Flip That Two-Start Pitcher.

Whether you love me or hate me I am usually right. Keep the emails coming: doubledown@fantasybaseballgeeks.com