«There is evidence that the U.S. dollar is currently used to fund operations, carry-trade” – reported by the representatives of the IMF in its report published yesterday. “These operations can contribute to the appreciation of the euro and the currencies of some developing countries.” And walking dollar “close to the medium-equilibrium”, it is overrated.

fall of the dollar

The dollar has lost about 13% in value over the last 6 months against a basket of currencies that includes the national currencies of major trading partners the United States. Meanwhile, World Index MSCI All Countries World Index (which includes both developed and emerging markets) has increased by two thirds since March of this year.

Representatives of the U.S. Federal Reserve at its meeting held on 4 November, reaffirmed their intention to keep interest rates at “very low point” for a sufficiently long period.

Expectations that the Fed will keep interest rates low, and confirmed with the reporting of data U.S. Department of Labor, according to which the unemployment rate jumped to 10.2% in October exceeded, thus, 10% barrier, which was observed for the last time until 1983.

In operations carry-trade, investors get loans in countries with low interest rates in order to invest these funds to more profitable types of assets. The initial interest rate of Japan, which is equal to 0,1%, in fact, is also minimal, as the 0% rate in the United States. Of course, this can not be compared with an interest rate equal to 7% in South Africa and the rate of 2,5%, which is valid for the moment in New Zealand. All these factors focus investor attention on the dollar and the yen during operations carry-trade.

Chief specialist on strategies in the global foreign exchange market at Brown Brothers Harriman, Mark Chandler (Marc Chandler) said that the dollar will continue to be used in operations carry-trade. Also, he noted that in future the currency will continue to decline.

orientation the risks

IMF stated that the value of the Chinese yuan “considerably undervalued”. “The Chinese currency in the existing conditions at the moment is underestimated in the ratio of the yuan-dollar and its value remains significantly undervalued in terms of medium term “- said representatives of the IMF.

China keeps the exchange rate around 6.83 per dollar from July 2008, after having let the currency strengthen by 21% over the previous 3 years. This situation has a particular meaning and is connected with the need to boost exports in the global recession. The President of the People’s Bank of China Zhou Xiaochuan (Zhou Xiaochuan) November 6, in an interview with Bloomberg News said that the international community is not yet ready to accept yuan. In this case, said on Europe and Japan, which impedes the consolidation of currencies.

«Since President Barack Obama took office this year, the U.S. view on the national currency of China is no longer has such a weighty status as before “- said the main expert on strategies for the global foreign exchange market at Brown Brothers Harriman, Mark Chandler (Marc Chandler).

added that the amendments do not apply to loans obtained for business.

In the explanatory memorandum to the bill states that to limit the borrower to prepay the banks are using a range measures, such as a complete moratorium on the early repayment of loans, establishment of fines and restrictions on the minimum amounts. Many banks operating system of penalties, the amount of which on average is about 2% of the amount of prepayment.

According to First Deputy Duma Speaker Oleg Morozov, the bill passed today would allow the Russians to save money, because our fellow citizens will no longer pay interest on the entire loan term.

According to the Bank of Russia at the beginning of November, from January to October this year, Russia’s banks were granted 76.144 thousands of mortgage loans totaling 86 billion rubles. In the currency was granted 1,221 mortgage loans for thousands of 5,6 billion rubles.

It was he who made the guarantor for a number of loans granted to enterprises. The businessman insists that he personally was entrusted only to loans of Alfa Bank and Bank of Moscow. Both their claims to the property have already submitted.

On Friday, Bank of Moscow said that the bailiffs have initiated enforcement proceedings on a number of actions the bank to Vadim Varshavsky, as the owner of the Novosibirsk metallurgical plant. Kuzmina and TD “Estar”. These companies owe the bank a total of more than 364 million rubles. Mr. Warsaw to sponsor these companies for loans of the Bank of Moscow. Consequently, the bank, not believing, apparently, in the solvency of the borrowers themselves, decided to withdraw due from himself Vadim Warsaw.

Bailiffs have seized on two non-residential premises in Moscow owned by a businessman himself. In addition, in payment of debt will leave 50% of earnings, Mr. Warsaw in the State Duma (he is a member of the “United Russia”). Also, the debtor is unlikely to now be able to travel outside Russia until the debt is fully paid.

explained RBC daily Vadim Varshavsky, a guarantee for the Novosibirsk Plant of the bank asked him to give after crisis and now decided to I use it, despite all the other proposals for resolving the dispute. In particular, Mr. Warsaw suggested the Bank of Moscow to ensure debt requirements to GAZ Group, which is a “Estar”. Another option – selling most Novosibirsk metallurgical plant. Kuzmin. However, according to Vadim Varshavsky, the bank chose to foreclose on his property. “We are with them in the negotiating process, but they behaved like that”, – concluded Vadim Varshavsky, adding that the two non-residential premises for a long time in detention. In the Bank of Moscow preferred not to comment on the reasons for his intransigence.

According to the owner of “Estar”, the personal guarantees on loans of their businesses, he gave only the Bank of Moscow and Alfa Bank. Recall, the last in June decided to take over the debts of the apartment, Mr. Warsaw. But on Friday the two sides refused to comment on her fate.

Paul Shelekhov of IFC Capital recalled that Mr. Warsaw has twice tried to sell “Estar” as a business, but from the large zakreditovannosti holding company can not do this. A bank is preferable to not foreclose on troubled assets – plant, and the most liquid assets – real estate in Moscow. Attorney Paul Lambrou adds that the bailiffs have used all possible means of persuasion, Mr. Warsaw that the debts should be returned.

levers of the global economy are moving to cities where international activity is concentrated, to notice John Hoksvort Thomas Hoen and Anmol Tiwari from PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) report on the development of major world cities by 2025 in 2005 to share of hundreds of major cities accounted for 25% of world GDP in 2008 – 30%. In the next 15 years on the economic map of the world “has changed markedly: to the traditional world centers like New York, Tokyo, London, to draw near Mexico City, Sao Paulo, Shanghai, Mumbai (see diagram).

Even 60 years ago, residents of villages have been twice as much as the city now – half to half, and by 2030 the townspeople will be twice that of rural residents. The towns themselves, too, have skyrocketed: in 1990 only a third of the 30 most populous cities had more than 10 million inhabitants in 2007 – two-thirds. But this is not the whole story, researchers have noticed from PwC: the population of the 30 largest cities by 2025 will grow by 27%, but among them only six cities would be in the developed countries.

However, the number of population still does not allow to judge the economic power of the city, say the researchers, the city ranked 151 in terms of growth and GDP at purchasing power parity.

average GDP growth rate of the largest cities in China, India and South East Asia in 2009-2025 gg. be about 7%, Latin America – about 4%, is in 2-3,5 times faster than the growth of New York, Tokyo, London. The five largest cities in 2025 will remain the same, but the rest of the rankings seriously change. Mumbai from the current 29 th place will move to 11-e, its economy will grow 2,8 times, Beijing’s economy will grow three times (rise by 17 th to 38 th), New Delhi – in 2,9 times. In 2005, the ten largest cities in developing countries were represented by only Mexico City, in 2025 there will also be Sao Paulo, Shanghai and Buenos Aires. In the top 100 cities, almost half will be from developing countries (in 2008 – 39).

«We will see the growth of new regional centers” – Hoksvort sure: they will concentrate in Asia and Latin America. Europe in the top 30 cities in 2008 represented only London, Paris, Madrid and Moscow in 2025 – the same without Madrid. Economics in Moscow to grow by 3.2% per year and will rise from 15 th to 12 th place.

urban growth in developing countries will not prevent even a crisis, the researchers found. One of its effects may be deglobalizatsiya – due to increased protectionism, the U.S. and the EU will reduce trade and investment flows, the necessary growth in developing markets. In this scenario, the economy of Asian cities will be only 9% less than in the baseline scenario, but the rating of mega-cities, reflecting the extent and rate of expansion of the developing world will not change.

Rapid urban growth in developing countries due to demographic potential, the industrial stage, which Europe has long since passed, “says Natalia Zubarevich of the Independent Institute for Social Policy. Post-industrial stage is connected with the development of quality services (financial, insurance), the mass is moving services to developing countries now.

economic spurt in emerging markets including the consequence of the “low base” of previous years , said Hoksvort, but the impact on urban growth and expansion of corporations. For example, the HSBC Group from February 1, 2010 to the headquarters in London, added the second – in Hong Kong.

Due to globalization, competition between cities is no longer within the borders of countries, at the global level, according to Chicago Mayor Richard Daley: they are fighting for attractiveness to business. It does not have the capital, said Hoksvort: the ten largest cities will include Shanghai, not Beijing, and Mumbai, not Delhi, and decentralization will continue.

Hoksvort believes in decentralization of Russia: ; will grow Petersburg, Ekaterinburg. But rating PwC did not confirm this: by 2025 Russia will fall from the current 71-th place on 75 th, other cities of Russia in the rating of 151 does not appear. At the same time in the top 100 will include eight cities in China (in 2008 – five), nine – India (six), five – Brazil and three – Mexico (in 2008 – the same). “growth points” of the world economy – this city, the largest of which are beginning to compete with each other – for human capital, technology and innovation – bypassing the border states, confirms the president of the Institute for Urban Economics Hope Kosareva. In Russia, the policy of regional development uses the term “region”, although the main source of development of any region – a city, she said. In Russia only two towns in the region, Moscow and St. Petersburg, and their share of Rosstat, accounting for 28% of the gross regional product. The rest are out of luck, the current system of intergovernmental fiscal relations and economic development of the city depends very little on himself, said Kosareva: the higher the tax base of the city, the more he gives the budgets of the top-level resources for growth remains low.

collectors loaded money into the local branch of the Bank of France, freshly printed banknotes were packed in 49 packs.

then the car moved to another place, and two collector with whom I worked Myusyulen , came to take the proceeds in a local company. When they returned, the car was gone. He was found empty hours later. GPS-navigation system with which to Loomis to track the movements of their vehicles was disabled.

Myusyulen seems to have acted alone and prepared to escape, said prosecutor Xavier Richard Lyons. When Myusyulena homes raided, it turned out that the refrigerator is empty. According to police, he recently withdrew all money from their bank accounts.

In June loud theft of collection of the vehicle occurred in Russia. In Perm, cashier Sberbank Alexander Schurman, threatening automatic two buddy, picked up 250 million rubles. (5.8 million euros at current exchange rate). He was detained eight days. In October he was charged with assault with the threat of violence and the use of arms for the appropriation of property in especially large size. Shurmanu faces up to 15 years in prison.

Myusyulenu who has committed a theft without violence, faces three years in prison.

possibility of such a bank is considering buying Group Zerich Capital Management. Since the new year, banks with capital less than 90 million rubles. will have to either increase capital, or lose its banking license, and now the price of such banks has fallen to a minimum, experts say.

The fact that the bank Zerich “(included in the group Zerich Capital Management “) plans to acquire smaller banks,” Kommersant said the chairman of board of bank Jury Korsakov. “Now we choose from several options,” – he said. According to Mr. Korsakov and interest groups to buy just a small bank is due to accelerate the entry into force of the new minimum capital requirements for banks.

According to amendments to the law “On banks and banking activities”, from 2010 of capital (own funds) of the bank can not be less than 90 million rubles. Banks that do not meet this requirement, must re-register in non-bank credit organization or lose their license. According to the Central Bank, on October 1, there were 154 credit institutions with capital less than 90 million rubles. During August-September capital to the required level increased 18 banks, one was transformed into non-banking credit organization, another is in the process of accession.

“We have a unique situation: with regard to the need for capital among the proposals the sale of small banks has increased considerably, and their price has declined substantially, “- explained Mr. Korsakov, adding that now the main trade-off when discussing the purchase of smaller banks – premium to capital, which fell last year by 30-50%. According to an independent consultant Andrew Maryina for banks a level of premium to capital, typically includes only the cost of licenses, which for the year decreased from $4 million to $1 million

Since the announcement of the new requirements capital in April of transactions to acquire smaller banks unrelated buyers did not happen. According to the Bank, except for the association of MDM Bank and VTB Bank, all other transactions were with related parties.

According to market participants, the group Zerich not only an independent buyer, who is actively seeking facility for the acquisition among small banks. “The recent increase in the number of proposals for the sale of small banks in need of dokapitalizatsii, – said Andrei Mar’in .- I was escorted to a dozen such transactions”.

interest in buying small banks by managers and investment companies is logical, said chairman of board of bank RESO-Credit “Albert Hisametdinov. “They’re positioning themselves as a universal financial holding companies providing a full range of services – says CEO Finam Igor Stepanyan .- In large investment companies have their own banks, while the average may just be interested in acquiring smaller banks to develop new directions” .

According to the instructions, the grounds for revocation of the license from January 1, 2010 will be the failure of the bank minimum capital requirements (90 million rubles.) for four consecutive reporting dates. Bank will closely monitor attempts to falsifying the accounts of banks, to avoid the risk of formal capital increase. At the same time revoke a license for false statements to the regulator on the new, more stringent rules on registration of the instructions the Ministry of Justice also said the Central Bank on Friday.

Following the October 2009 INVESTBANK took 16 th place on the turnover in the list of leading operators in Russia’s stock market in a segment of “Bonds: REPO trading mode, published MICEX. Bank’s position compared to September 2009 improved immediately 5 points.

place bidder in the list of MICEX market leaders – bonds: REPO trading mode “is determined by the total volume of transactions in bonds (except for Eurobonds), prisoners in the regime of repurchase and the regime of repos in bonds for the month. It takes into account only transactions – the first part of the repurchase transactions.

See: “> http://www.micex.ru/markets/stock / members/topoperators/636

Currency exchange inflation

whether the predictions will come true tricks of the Central Bank and Ministry of Economic Development for the ruble?

Central radically changed its policy. In the near future we will no longer see the meticulous support desired value of the ruble. The main force will now be thrown out, to keep inflation within boundaries. Restraining the growth in prices and lowering the rate, the Central Bank pursues a noble goal: to rid the country of speculative capital and send money in real production.

«Enigma Internet trading

about how the system works encrypt Internet-trading, and what should be feared gamblers.

security system in the Internet trading system consists of two parts: encrypt data sent between the server broker and the client part of Internet trading system on your computer, and the signature you committed transactions.

Song of the American consumer

Why the U.S. economy is not afraid of crisis looks like an ideal investment for what they take money, portfolio managers

How many shoes can be the average American and how many machines it needs to be happy ? America’s GDP by 70% the consumption of the population that can not fail to attract attention.

correction? You thought!

D ’selected the most interesting actions and described the possibility of investors.

Even if Russia’s market by the end of the year will fall on venture capitalists, this should not affect. Analysts have no unity as to what will be the stock indices at the end of the year – fall or rise. But analysts clearly believe: among Russian shares are still very, very attractive options.

Business Confucius

Rating Chinese billionaires and their success stories.

Can I earn billions of dollars in oil and metals, and in copies of famous trademarks or junk? Over the past year, the wealthiest Chinese have increased their capital by a third.

all your eggs in one “System»

Or why you can earn on the AFK Sistema »

The stock exchange is sometimes possible to find companies that are worth less than its underlying assets. Such a paradox happens to shares of AFK Sistema: belonging to him MTS long walks in the blue chips, and paper of the parent company is still not in favor with the players. However, in future the situation might change.

four days of life «D-Trazo»

the profitability of transactions and on the trading strategy in the market MICEX

Journal D ‘continues to trade on the MICEX derivatives market in the competitions on the Cup MICEX. While we cling to the number of participants, although profit is not always possible. So last Monday an attempt to “scalp” had brought a loss of 600 rubles.

its niche

And complex post-crisis time is willing to acquire an elite suburban housing on the most expensive and the known direction – Rublyovo-Assumption.

suburban real estate market resemble a battlefield: some companies are unconscious or already “killed” — left the market, other “dress the wounds, optimizing the states and reviewing development plans. Thus there are daredevils who are ready to create your own “army” and to attack it in an elite area. Other realtors believe that a greater chance of success for those who aim at different segments and consumers.

Alternative Country

To build an apartment building in the area is much cheaper than in the capital and provincial cities, but sell it much more difficult than taunhauhy or cottages.

Country multifamily housing complexes – yet incomprehensible to the consumer format with dim prospects. This is a segment connecting the two format of housing: the familiar urban (low-rise apartments in houses) and country (home to the natural environment). There are three problems – land, infrastructure, transport accessibility.

weighted average U.S. dollar to Russia’s ruble payments for a period of “tomorrow” on a single trading session trading on the MICEX as of 11:30 Moscow time, on the basis of which is the process of rate fixing the dollar the next day, dropped to 16.59 cop. and amounted to 28.8497 rubles. Dollar has updated at least December 2008.

ruble continued to strengthen against the currency basket. Its price fell by 11 cents and reached 35.28 rubles. compared to 35.39 rubles. on Friday.

At the forex market cheaper dollar against the euro after the country’s “Group of Twenty” confirmed that they will not hurry with the downsizing of measures to support the economy. Euro at 11:35 Moscow time on Monday, was worth $1.4971, compared with $1.4847 at the end of the previous trading day.