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• Briefing No. 1 (revised): An integrated approach to wellbeing assessment

  Posted:14 Jun 2013 10:58:20 GMT

  This revised and updated briefing paper introduces the approach to Wellbeing assessment being developed and applied by Wellbeing and Poverty Pathways in its three-year research project in Zambia and India.
  
  Key elements of the approach are:
  

  • a multi-dimensional model of Wellbeing: Wellbeing is made up of seven domains that span material, relational and personal factors
  • a new concept of Inner Wellbeing: Subjective perspectives focus on 'Inner Wellbeing': what people feel and think they can do and be
  • an integrated, mixed method approach: Measures of how people are doing objectively complement Inner Wellbeing assessment.
  • qualitative data and reflection balance quantiative measures and analysis

  
  Summary:
  

  • Wellbeing is multi-faceted - it needs to be assessed acrossdifferent aspects of life. It is not well captured by a single indicator
  • measurement requires meaning - to interpret results, including changes over time, you need to know why people are scoring as they do. This means that qualitative work must accompany quantitative assessment.
  • context makes a difference - The concepts and methods used to assess Wellbeing, as well as the results they produce, are shaped by culture. This means that how you ask as well as what you ask about may need to be adapted for different local situations.
  • relationship is at the heart of Wellbeing - Wellbeing is not the property of an individual, it emerges in relationship. Assessment therefore needs to consider how people interact with each other and with their wider environment.
  • politics are central to Wellbeing - politics determine how Wellbeing is defined, whose Wellbeing matters and who is seen to be responsible. Attention to power and inequality is therefore a vital part of Wellbeing assessment

  Please note this is an updated version of: An integrated model for assessing wellbeing: Wellbeing and Poverty Pathways briefing no. 1, 2011.

  

• Expanding microfinance in Latin America’s rural areas

  Posted:31 May 2013 16:51:11 GMT

  Rural finance has the potential to help poor people out of poverty, and Latin America has met that challenge in some unique ways.This Brief by discusses impacts of microfinance’s in rural areas, presenting evidence on rural poverty as well as on microfinance’s positive effects on consumption and investment in education. It then describes the evolution of rural microfinance in Latin America, before presenting some key Latin American experiences that aim to increase rural peoples’ access, not only to credit, but to a range of financial services and products. The author provides a view on adaptations to credit technology used in urban areas for application in rural finance, and emphasises the importance of risk management in order to expand outreach.
  
  
  Key lessons:

  • rural areas need financial services for all types of economic activities, and these services should encompass more than credit. Latin America has shown that this is possible, in part with proper risk management strategies
  • economies of scale and scope achieved by larger MFIs allow for better diversification of risk so that agricultural lending can be amplified. This likely indicates that prioritising growth and the diversification of these institutions should be an important task for governments and donors providing support for the sector

  

• A new global partnership: eradicate poverty and transform economies through sustainable development

  Posted:31 May 2013 10:19:42 GMT

  The High Level Panel on the Post-2015 Development Agenda's report sets out a universal agenda to eradicate extreme poverty by 2030 through sustainable development. In the report, the Panel calls for the new post-2015 goals to drive five big transformative shifts:

  • Leave no-one behind: we should move from reducing to ending extreme poverty, in all its forms.
  • Put sustainable development at the core: immediate action is needed to slow the pace of climate change and environmental degradation.
  • Transform economies for jobs and inclusive growth: more diversified economies, with equal opportunities for all, can drive social inclusion, as well as foster sustainable consumption and production patterns.
  • Build peace and effective, open and accountable institutions for all: peace and good governance must be recognised as a core element of wellbeing, not an optional extra.
  • Forge a new global partnership: it should be centred around people and include civil society organisations, multilateral institutions, local and national governments, the scientific and academic community, businesses and private philanthropy.

  

• Latin America’s rural family farmers: evolutions in access to markets and rural income structure

  Posted:29 May 2013 15:22:54 GMT

  Over time, the rural reality in Latin America has changed, with family farmers now more integrated in markets and significantly less dependent on agriculture for income. What does this mean for family farmers today?
  
  In order to understand Latin America’s current experience with small-holder farming, it is helpful to understand two key changes in the region’s rural areas that have been evolving mainly over the past two decades: farmers’ increased access to markets and diversification of their income sources. This Brief takes a closer look at these two key evolutions, assessing the impact on small farmers and some of the driving forces, in particular by analysing the liberalisation policies of the 1990s and 2000s that played a strong role in driving forward these changes. It concludes by presenting some of the present policy priorities as well as some lessons learned based on the Latin American experience.
  
  Key Lessons:

  • reasonable harmonisation between macroeconomic and agricultural-orientated policies must exist to guarantee market operation, regardless of the regulations introduced to make family farm participation possible within the Latin American context. Family farming is a private operation that requires particular public institutional support
  • the rapid expansion of product-transformation activities in the rural sector, the increasing integration of rural-urban exchange and the introduction of technical change in agricultural production - among other factors - boosted the diversification of activities and income sources in the rural sector

  

• Indigenous peoples and climate change in Africa

  Posted:18 May 2013 09:02:24 GMT

  Through two participatory case studies, this paper examines the impact of climate change on the indigenous peoples of Namibia. The objectives of the case studies are three-fold: to document how the indigenous peoples are affected by climate change; to analyse how they perceive, adapt to and leverage opportunities from climate change; and provide recommendations for strengthening the indigenous peoples’ engagement in national and international public climate change policy.
  
  The paper begins by explaining the methodology of the study and providing background on the socioeconomic and historical context of study areas. Focusing on the Topnaar and Hai Om people, research methods consisted of a literature review, data collection through household questionnaires, focus groups, expert interviews and participatory approaches, as well as data analysis identifying the successful use of traditional knowledge in climate change adaptation.
  
  A vulnerability and opportunity assessment is presented regarding climate change, governance and socioeconomic conditions in Namibia, before the study comprehensively outlines the results from the two case studies. The vulnerability and opportunity context, the impacts of climate change on the indigenous people, and the traditional knowledge and adaptation are all explored in each sub-region.
  
  The report concludes with recommendations regarding each community. Concerning the Topnaar community, the study finds that their adaptation to arid conditions (a high dependence on Inara plants and livestock) makes them vulnerable to floods, while the poor were disproportionately unable to adapt to recent heavy rains. The study recommends investing in eco-tourism and encourages the diversification of livelihoods.
  
  Regarding the Hai On community, the study finds that their increasing loss of access to land and commercial farms is resulting in many problems. Access to bushfood is limited and they are ever-more dependent on government aid. Furthermore, the study finds that the authorities have restricted peoples’ efforts at livelihood diversification. It is recommended that the Hai On people are given more of their ancestral land, that a strict cattle-per-hectare policy is enforced to prevent further overgrazing, and proper consultation and participation is assured.

• Final Impact Evaluation of the Saving for Change Program in Mali, 2009-2012

  Posted:17 May 2013 11:16:26 GMT

  Saving for Change (SfC) is a community savings group programme designed and implemented by Oxfam America, Freedom from Hunger, and the Strømme Foundation. SfC operates in 13 countries in West Africa, Latin America and Asia.
  
  This research conducted in Mali by Innovations for Poverty Action (IPA) and the Bureau of Applied Research in Anthropology (BARA) at the University of Arizona examines the impacts of Saving for Change. IPA conducted a randomized control trial (RCT) with 500 villages (6000 households) as well as high frequency surveys with a subset of 600 households over a three-year period between 2009-2012.

  BARA and IPA concluded that Saving for Change is an effective programme providing real socioeconomic benefits to its intended populations:

  • the study found that 40% of women in treatment villages and 12% of women in control villages joined Saving for Change
  • while those who joined Saving for Change were on average slightly older, more socially connected and wealthier than non-members, the program reached remote and poor villages where the majority of the households were living on $1 per day
  • Saving for Change led to small, but positive and statistically significant economic effects when compared to control villages including increases in savings, loans and household livestock holdings, as well as improvements in food security and malaria knowledge, but not behavior
  • there was no measurable impact of Saving for Change on how households deal with health expenses, and small or no significant impacts on school enrollment, business development or expansion, agricultural inputs, or household and agricultural assets
  • the ethnographic research found an increase in social capital in terms of village-level solidarity and contact with other women, but the RCT did not see increases in social capital or female empowerment
  • structured replication, in which replicators participate in a three-day NGO-sponsored training, are given a pictorial manual, and receive a certificate upon completion, led to higher take up of the program and larger impacts for outcomes such as savings, food security, livestock holdings and poverty

  

• How best to measure pension adequacy

  Posted:16 May 2013 11:12:41 GMT

  Though the main benchmark used to assess pension reforms continues to be the expected resulting fall in future government spending, the impact of policy changes on pension adequacy is increasingly coming to the fore. As yet, there does not seem to be a broad consensus in policymaking circles and academic literature on what constitutes the best measure of pension adequacy. While various indicators have been developed and utilised, no single measure appears to offer a clear indication of the extent to which reforms will impact on the achievement of pension system goals.

  Many indicators appear ill-suited to study the effective impact of reforms, particularly those that change the nature of the pension system from defined benefit to defined contribution.  

  Existing measures are frequently hard to interpret as they do not have an underlying benchmark which allows their current or projected value to be assessed as adequate or inadequate. Currently used pension adequacy indicators tend to be point-in-time measures which ignore the impact of benefit indexation rules. They also are unaffected by very important factors, such as changes in the pension age and in life expectancy. 
  
  This paper argues for the use of adequacy indicators based on estimates of pension wealth (i.e. the total projected flow of pension benefits through retirement) calculated using more realistic labour market assumptions. These measures are used to give a better indication of the effective impact of pension reforms enacted since the 1990s in ten major European countries. They suggest that these reforms have decreased generosity significantly, but that the poverty alleviation function remains strong in those countries where minimum pensions were improved.  However, moves to link benefits to contributions have raised clear adequacy concerns for women and for those on low incomes which policymakers should consider and tackle. 

  

• 'Mucupuki' Revisited: Assessing the Implications of PARP/A in Central Mozambique 2008-2011

  Posted:14 May 2013 09:02:50 GMT

  This is the final report in a series of six studies to monitor and evaluate Mozambique’s Poverty Reduction Strategies PARP/A (2006-2012). The series focuses on three different areas in the country, including the District of Buzi in the central province of Sofala. Despite severe structural political and economic constraints, people in Buzi have seen small improvements in their socio-economic conditions between 2008 and 2011. In addition to their own hard work, the proximity to the city of Beira is a major reason for the advances made. Rather than counting on economic growth to ‘trickle down’, the government should remove constraints related to agriculture and income and facilitate rural-urban interaction.

• Assessing the Implications of PARPA II in Maputo 2007-2010

  Posted:14 May 2013 09:02:47 GMT

  This brief presents the main conclusions from the fifth in a series of six studies monitoring and evaluating Mozambique’s poverty reduction strategy PARPA II, using a combination of quantitative and qualitative data. It analyses the constitution and dynamics of poverty and well-being in four bairros in the capital city Maputo, by revisiting the same communities and households three years after a first baseline-study conducted in 2007. - The study finds that improvements having taken place in Maputo between 2007-2010 in the areas of poverty reduction, education, health, water, electricity, sanitation etc. seem – ironically – to have brought further challenges to central and municipal government in the form of increasing demands for employment, income, social security and political accountability.

• Assessing the Implications of PARP/A in Central Mozambique 2008-2011

  Posted:14 May 2013 09:02:45 GMT

  In a series of six studies, the local implications of Mozambique’s Poverty Reduction Strategies PARP/A (2006-2014) have been monitored and evaluated by focusing on the district of Murrupula, the city of Maputo and the district of Buzi. Using a combination of quantitative and qualitative data, each site has been visited twice with a three-year interval. This brief sums up the main findings from the revisit to the district of Buzi in 2011. - Despite severe structural political and economic constraints, people in the District of Buzi in central Mozambique have seen small but important improvements in their socio-economic conditions between 2008 and 2011. In addition to their own hard work, the proximity to the city of Beira is a major reason for the advances made. Rather than counting on economic growth to ‘trickle down’, the government should remove constraints related to agriculture and income and facilitate rural-urban interaction.

• Assessing Mozambique’s PARP/A 2006-2011: Local perspectives

  Posted:14 May 2013 09:02:42 GMT

  Six years of impressive economic growth and classical poverty reduction policies in Mozambique have demonstrated the limited extent to which this has ‘trickled down’ to the local level – with the country falling on the Human Development Index and poverty reduction having come to a complete halt. Important progress has been made in public administration, physical infrastructure, education and health, but deep structural changes will be necessary in order to generate employment and income and reach the 55 percent of all Mozambicans who remain poor.

• China’s pension system: a vision

  Posted:07 May 2013 15:09:08 GMT

  China is facing a dramatic ageing process and demographic transition as a result of declines in fertility combined with significant increases in longevity. Old-age dependency ratios are therefore projected to almost triple over three decades. Policy makers widely believe that the approach to pension provision and reform efforts piloted over the last 10-15 years is insufficient to enable China's economy and population to realise its development objectives in the years ahead.
  
  This volume proposes a national pension system that no longer distinguishes along urban and rural locational or hukou (household registration)  lines yet takes account of the diverse nature of employment relations and capacity of individuals to make contributions. The document outlines this vision, and summarises the key features of a proposed long-term pension system. It examines key trends motivating the need for reform then outlines the proposed three-pillar design and the rationale behind the design choices, examines financing options, and discusses institutional reform issues.
  
  It concludes by saying that the pension system design can play an important role in supporting or constraining such economic and demographic transitions, highlighting that:
  

  • fragmentation and lack of portability of rights hinder labor market efficiency and contribute to coverage gaps
  • multiple schemes for salaried workers, civil servants, and, in some areas, migrants similarly impact labor markets
  • legacy costs that are largely financed through current pension contributions weaken incentives for compliance and accurate wage reporting
  • very limited risk pooling and interurban resource transfers limit the insurance function of the urban pension system and create spatial disparities in old-age income protection
  • low retirement ages affect incentives and benefits and undermine fiscal sustainability
  • relatively low returns on individual accounts result in replacement rates significantly less than anticipated while at the macro level, are likely to inhibit wider efforts to stimulate higher domestic consumption

  
  

• Inequality watch

  Posted:07 May 2013 09:02:28 GMT

  This report is a contribution to the development policy debate. It shows that it is a too narrow approach to limit the targets of development policy to growth or to lifting a population above an artificial poverty line. A clear prioritization of power and resources is needed. The report gives a thorough analysis of inequality and development in Bolivia, El Salvador, South Africa, and Mozambique. - The report gives recommendations to Norwegian development policy.

• World Report on Child Labour: Economic vulnerability, social protection and the fight against child labour

  Posted:03 May 2013 09:02:17 GMT

  What can be done to ensure more – and faster – progress in tackling child labour? This report argues that child labour is driven in part by household vulnerabilities associated with poverty, risk and shocks, and that social security is critical to mitigating these vulnerabilities. Following on from this, the overall aims of the report are, first, to highlight the relevance of social security as part of a broader strategy for eliminating child labour; and, second, to help advance understanding of the specific ways in which social security systems can support efforts against child labour.

• Comparative analysis of climate change vulnerability assessments: lessons from Tunisia and Indonesia

  Posted:02 May 2013 09:02:49 GMT

  This comparative analysis of climate change vulnerability assessments (VAs) draws lessons from Tunisia and Indonesia to inform future VA planning and implementation. Central to shaping adaptation decisions, VAs provide the basis for both human and ecological harm mitigation measures. This analysis uses a framework that looks at four components of VAs (framing, process, inputs and outputs) in each of the two case studies, highlighting similarities and differences before drawing lessons and making recommendations.
  
  After providing a thorough background to climate change vulnerability assessments, including the analytical framework used in the study, the report examines VAs of agro-ecological systems in Tunisia and of the city of Tarakan in Indonesia. The four components of each VA are extensively documented.
  
  Broken down by VA component, recommendations include the following.
  

  • Framing: It is important to include clear working definitions of key concepts such as ‘vulnerability’, and to consider the facilitation of study replication and data comparability at an early stage.
  • Inputs: Be aware of the quality of the data selected for use and communicate a minimum standard.
  • Outputs: Participants should understand that VA results are rarely new and transformative; dealing with current and short- to medium-term trends, results often reinforce the case for prioritising familiar measures that may have been considered but unimplemented.
  • Process: Politics is an unavoidable factor in all components of VAs and must be considered to ensure successful policy uptake.
  • Resources: Co-ordination measures must be adequately resourced and budgeted for in realistic estimates of time and money.
  • Monitoring and evaluation: It is important to document the process and provide feedback to stakeholders.

  

• Linkages between population dynamics, urbanization processes and disaster risks: a regional vision of Latin America

  Posted:25 Apr 2013 09:02:23 GMT

  With both urban population and the frequency of disasters increasing in Latin America, it is necessary to adequately plan for sustainable growth that takes these changing dynamics into account. With this in mind, multiple agencies within the United Nations came together in consultation with regional experts to analyse linkages between population dynamics, urban development and disaster risk reduction in the region. This resulting paper begins by providing context on the linkages and their current methodological treatment. Links can be direct (land use, population density etc) or indirect (climate change), and must be considered in terms of both short- and long-term scenarios.
  
  The paper describes the characteristics and consequences of the situation in Latin America, covering: population projections and scenario building for planning; population growth, urbanisation and their drivers; and public policy, population dynamics and risk reduction. Key findings include the following.
  

  • Urbanisation will continue, more through organic growth than migration, requiring diversification efforts.
  • The poor will represent the largest proportion of urban growth and the growth of slums will amplify risk, making disaster risks ever more urban-centric.
  • Local losses are largely associated with flood impacts and hydro-meteorological hazards.
  • Weak governance structures contribute to disaster risk through an absence of planning and growth management, leading to informal settlements, substandard housing, lack of services and poverty.

  Based on these findings, the paper concludes by outlining the challenges to and opportunities for urban intervention, including the following.
  

  • Demographic analysis is not well integrated into urban planning or disaster risk reduction; careful study of demographic trends and the creation of scenarios should form secure foundations of prospective plans.
  • Urban growth should be directed to the identification and development of areas with basic facilities, in the context of disaster risk reduction.
  • Small- and medium-sized urban centres provide the greatest opportunities in planning for growth; it is necessary to invest in the technical capacity of such centres, since they often have fewer resources than those in larger urban areas.
  • Social housing policy offers significant opportunities that can increase the resilience of vulnerable groups.

  

• Combating Poverty and Inequality: structural change, social policy and politics

  Posted:23 Apr 2013 14:14:38 GMT

  This report explores the causes, dynamics and persistence of poverty, and argues that current  approaches to poverty often ignore its root causes. It  analyses poverty reduction as part of long-term processes of social, economic and political transformation, and draws important lessons from the experiences of those countries that have successfully combined economic development and active social policy to reduce poverty. 

  The report examines the complex ways that poverty alleviation outcomes are shaped by the interconnection of ideas, institutions, policies and practices. It advocates for a pattern of growth and structural change that can generate and sustain jobs that are adequately remunerated and accessible to all – regardless of income or class status, gender, ethnicity or location.

  Chapter four of the report considers gender inequalities in the home and in the market, and chapter seven considers care and wellbeing, including women's unpaid care.

  

• Decentralising the management of bilateral development cooperation programmes in Tanzania: a Finnish example

  Posted:18 Apr 2013 17:28:51 GMT

  What is the potential of the decentralisation of bilateral development cooperation programmes as an aid to improving their performance in regard to poverty reduction?
  
  This book presents evidence-based observations on how decentralising the management of  bilateral development cooperation programmes could act as the best approach in managing bilateral development assistance in a manner that best contributes to poverty reduction in a recipient country. It presents a case study of Rural Integrated Project Support (RIPS), a bilateral development cooperation programme between Finland and Tanzania in Lindi and Mtwara regions.
  
  Thress main lessons were lerned from the programme:
  

  • if the change process is designed in such a way that space is created for stakeholders to take leading roles in setting the objectives of change and determining the key areas for reforming a particular programme, then the process is likely to address the needs of local partners and the outcomes of the process are likely to meet those needs
  • good leadership and the support of top management are the main pillars of the change process, both in terms of articulating country policy changes and creating space for staff to innovate and improve overall programme performance
  • it appears that the concept of Operational Integration may be applied as a strategy for programme management in bilateral development cooperation. Such a concept works to aid in creating space for dialogue between the local partners’ perspectives and those of the development programme

  

• Prioritising nutrition in order to achieve the MDGs in India

  Posted:09 Apr 2013 13:52:50 GMT

  Malnutrition causes long-term damage to children’s development, with huge social and economic costs. It affects not only children’s physical development but also their cognitive development, so reducing future productivity and leading ultimately to economic loss for the nation as a whole. India has recorded strong economic growth in recent years but has shown little progress in tackling malnutrition. It is evident that economic growth alone will not solve the malnutrition problem and sustaining growth will require human capital development. Young Lives research suggests that there has been very little improvement over the last decade in children’s nutritional status and demonstrates the impact of malnutrition on children’s later development. Strengthening services and social protection schemes such as Integrated Child Development Services, the Public Distribution System and the Midday Meal Scheme are important elements of securing better nutrition for children and will support progress towards the Millennium Development Goals.
  
  Analysis of Young Lives data offers a number of challenges to prevailing assumptions about orphans
  and vulnerability.
  

  • despite its high rate of economic growth, India is home to the largest number of malnourished children in any one country in the world.
  • malnutrition has long-term consequences for children. Stunting caused by malnutrition in early life is linked to many child development indicators (including literacy, self-confidence and educational aspirations).
  • Young Lives research shows that the problem of stunting has become increasingly concentrated in the poorest households.
  • high food prices can have both short- and long- term effects on children’s nutritional status. Government policies can buffer families from these shocks.
  • programmes such as the Public Distribution Scheme help ensure food security for families but need to be strengthened.

  

• Putting children at the centre of poverty debates

  Posted:09 Apr 2013 11:55:59 GMT

  This paper discusses the methodology of Young Lives - a 15-year study of childhood poverty in Ethiopia, India, Vietnam and Peru, following the lives of 3,000 children in each country.  The Young Lives programme is interested in children’s development within the context of economic constraint and disparities, and cumulative risk.
  
  Children’s well-being and life chances are, however, interdependent with those of their parents and carers and the communities in which they reside, so Young Lives also considers household and community circumstances as central to child well-being. Additionally, the impacts of poverty have to be assessed in terms of other forms of risk to children, such as environmental hazards or ill-health that are often a cause of, or exacerbated by, material lack.
  
  Young Lives conceptualises poverty as multidimensional in both its causes and its consequences. Access to resources (financial and other) is at the root of poverty, and there are a number of channels through which poverty may operate and create risks for children. The advantages of multidimensional approaches are that:
  
  

  • they help to demonstrate the interconnected nature of different aspects of deprivation
  • they analyse when income is (or is not) a good predictor of outcomes important for children; and
  • they can be used to summarise an aggregate of change over time in a more holistic and complete way than income measures alone

  

• Papua New Guinea: critical development constraints

  Posted:06 Apr 2013 09:56:16 GMT

  Papua New Guinea (PNG) has enjoyed several years of strong economic growth, driven largely by high commodity prices and supported by structural reforms and some sound macroeconomic policies. However, the growing opportunities and wealth have been skewed increasingly in favour of a small and largely urban-based segment of the population.
  
  The current paper addresses this issue and finds that:
  

  • challenges which PNG faces include: ensuring that the recent higher economic growth rates are sustainable in the long term, and translating high economic growth into much more inclusive development than has prevailed to date
  • the critical constraints encompass: weaknesses in governance and institutions, poor infrastructure, shortages of skilled human capital, and poor and unequal access to affordable and good-quality education and health services

  Policy recommendations for the government are that:
  

  • vigorously apply the new informal economy policy in main and provincial centers and rural areas
  • review public sector terms and conditions - an independent review of the public sector is required
  • provide access to microfinance and other financial services, and place major emphasis on generating employment opportunities, including in agriculture
  • undertake a major program for raising the status of women in society, to empower women to participate more fully in, and benefit from, the economy, politics, and decision making
  • form innovative partnerships with private sector investment and participation in the delivery of public goods
  • help expanding the roles of civil society and NGOs and enhancing their skills to better fill their roles

  In addition, the government is recommended to take measures to make competitive conditions prevail in PNG markets to enable consumers to secure a more efficient and wider range of services at affordable and more internationally comparable prices.

• Predicting the cost and impact of cash transfer programmes: the power of microsimulation tools

  Posted:05 Apr 2013 15:39:10 GMT

  Cash transfers to households are becoming an increasingly common policy instrument for reducing poverty, particularly in some countries of sub-Saharan Africa. However pilot schemes are not always modelled at their design stage to estimate whether the cash transfers would have an affordable impact on poverty if scaled up. This briefing note explains how to overcome this problem by using a simple microsimulation tool.
  
  The tool uses household survey data to predict the costs and poverty outcomes of cash transfer programmes under different scenarios before any programme is launched. It can also simulate how the benefit will be distributed among households with different consumption levels or different household composition – something that is not possible with tools that use macro-level data such as national population data. The briefing note explains the key steps needed to use the tool and the issues that should be considered along the way.

• Can the UN adjust to the changing funding landscape?

  Posted:05 Apr 2013 14:58:03 GMT

  Private sources of financing have become a growing feature of UN budgets. This report argues that an evaluation of the private financing of UNDP activities reveals both advantages - increased resources, more technical expertise, better management - and challenges such distorted priorities, unhealthy competition, weakened multilateralism.
  
  The increase in non-core funding constitutes a permanent change in the development scene. The UN continues to play a vital role in delivering programs with the use of such funds. It is a standard bearer for international treaties and principles; its universality means legitimacy; it adds value through its large network of offices and administrative capacities; and its perceived neutrality facilitates access to a range of partners in different country contexts. These advantages help explain the attraction of the UN system for delivering programs with resources from new funding sources. Hitherto, few other organizations have been able to perform this role. However, this role cannot be taken for granted, particularly with the emergence of new global organizations in the public, charitable, and for - profit sectors. Working with these funds has brought much benefit to the UN’s development work but also carries risks. As these changes are here to stay, it is essential that the UNDP and other vital organisations of the UN system find ways of optimising the use of these resources without diminishing their core purpose and values.

• Impact of population aging on Asia’s future growth

  Posted:02 Apr 2013 19:35:04 GMT

  Population ageing affects growth through savings, capital accumulation, labour force participation, and total factor productivity. This paper examines the impact of ageing on those four channels in 12 developing Asian economies that collectively make up the bulk of the region’s population and output.
  
  The document points that the lag between mortality and fertility declines in Asian countries gave rise to a baby boom generation that was larger than the cohorts that preceded and followed it. However, when the baby boomers reach working age, both the savings rate and the size of the labour force will shoot up.
  
  Conclusions contain:
  

  • while developing Asia is following in the demographic footsteps of the advanced economies, the scale of the transition make preparing for a “grayer” future all the more challenging and complex
  • it is projected that the region’s demographic transition will have a substantial adverse effect on its economic growth in the next 2 decades, particularly where population ageing is more advanced
  • thus, the demographic dividend that drove economic growth in the past will turn into a demographic tax that will subtract from it

  
  The paper underlines that a particular challenging issue will be to provide adequate income support and healthcare for the elderly without jeopardising growth by imposing excessive burdens on the working-age population.
  
  Suggestions include:
  

  • a primary means of sustaining economic growth in the future will be successful adaptations to rapidly changing population structures
  • additionally, working longer and encouraging more women to participate in the labour force can mitigate the negative impact of ageing on growth

  

• Poverty, income inequality, and microfinance in Thailand

  Posted:29 Mar 2013 08:53:58 GMT

  The purpose of this paper is to provide an assessment of recent developments in poverty and income inequality in Thailand, summarising the government’s programs to address it, and highlighting the importance of microfinance sector as a key priority.
  
  The author clarifies that despite Thailand having been very successful in lowering the national incidence of poverty, significant pockets of subnational poverty remain. Moreover, income inequality in Thailand is among the highest in Southeast Asia.
  
  Findings are that:
  

  • differences in regional per capita incomes are the key determinant of poverty and inter-regional income inequality in Thailand
  • this suggests that government interventions to address inequality should be a combination of economy-wide, region-specific, and sector-specific initiatives

  
  The document figures that while government programs have expanded microcredit, low-income families still have limited access to financial services.
  
  Conclusions are as follows:
  

  • it will be important for the government strategy for financial inclusion to include time-bound measures to open the microfinance sector to greater private sector participation
  • the strategy should also include measures to develop an appropriate regulatory framework to promote the growth of micro-insurance products
  • the government should develop a national financial literacy program aimed at low-income households
  • the government should establish a national social protection commission with a mandate to oversee the review of poverty reduction programs
  • the government should examine the feasibility of introducing the programs on conditional cash transfer (CCT) in the poorer regions
  • the government should carry out further analytical research on labour market informality in the poorer regions, to better understand youth labour market experience and poverty

  

• Can skill diversification improve welfare in rural areas?: evidence from the rural skills development project in Bhutan

  Posted:28 Mar 2013 09:47:10 GMT

  Income growth in rural Bhutan is a considerable challenge to further poverty reduction and economic development. Using a survey of rural Bhutanese households, this paper investigates the impacts of a vocational skills training program that was intended to diversify incomes outside of agriculture.
  
  The authors clarify that the rural skills development program in Bhutan was a short-term training program that trained the rural poor in practical construction skills with the intention of raising overall incomes.
  
  Findings contain:
  

  • the program had limited positive impacts along various economic and psychosocial dimensions
  • the program did raise incomes for trainees in non-competitive labour markets where trainees accounted for only a small percentage of the overall population

  
  The paper notes that this highlights the need for program design to better assess the labour market and ensure that it does not become over saturated; otherwise, the training program may have little effect.
  
  Conclusions are as follows:
  

  • having an explicit mechanism for trainees to enter the larger labour market through job placement services, and providing entrepreneurship support can further help to increase employment opportunities
  • this is particularly true in competitive labour markets where there are too many trainees in relation to the population
  • encouraging greater equality in the skill development process should be considered, but it may require providing more female-friendly training that has flexibility in training time and venues and focuses on other skill areas
  • refining the targeting of the program may help to better accelerate the speed at which it is possible to reduce poverty and vulnerability to poverty of the rural poor and increase equality in the development process

  

• Moving women out of poverty through the development of small fish processing enterprises in Malawi

  Posted:26 Mar 2013 09:02:17 GMT

  Malawi is one of the countries in Africa which is highly dependent on fish as a source of animal protein. Malawi produces about 70,000 tons of fish annually from its lakes, rivers and swamps. The fishing industry supports the livelihoods of 1.5 mill people in Malawi and contributes about 4% to the national GDP. With funding from the Norwegian MFA through the Lake Chilwa Climate Change Adaptation Programme, pilot value addition and fish marketing activities targeted at women groups were implemented in three sites. Self selected women groups were formed and trained in group dynamics, business management and fish processing. Experts introduced solar dryers and improved smoking kilns to the groups and conducted collaborative activities to demonstrate how adoption of these technologies could increase women incomes through production of high quality fish that could be sold to market outlets country wide at a higher price.

• The Life Cycle of a Gram Daridro Bimochon Committee

  Posted:23 Mar 2013 09:02:44 GMT

  Besides other reasons, to meet the commitments towards Millennium Development Goals BRAC introduced the Challenging the Frontiers of Poverty Reduction/Targeting Ultra Poor programme. To facilitate the programme, thus bring positive changes in the life of ultra poor, a Gram Daridro Bimochon Committee, comprising the elite of the community, was formed. The committee appeared to have a short active life. The study ethnographically observed the life cycle of a committee from its inception to the dormant stage. In this observation, the study in addition to depicting the dynamics and performance of the committee tried to single out the reasons for it becoming dormant and what could be done to keep the committees active even after when the programme discontinued its regular contact with the committee.

• The situation of older persons in Myanmar: Results from the 2012 Survey of Older Persons

  Posted:22 Mar 2013 15:16:30 GMT

  Myanmar’s population is beginning to age rapidly.  According to UN projections, by 2050 older people will comprise a quarter of Myanmar’s total population. Shortly after 2035, persons aged 60 and older will outnumber children under age 15.
  
  This document is the outcome of a national research on the situation of older people in Myanmar, carried out in 2012. It argues that Myanmar has now a window of opportunity to develop and expand creative approaches to help fill the gaps created by changing family structures, through initiatives by government,
  empowered communities and civil society. The predictability of the demographic changes that lie ahead and the extensive information provided by the Survey of Older Persons in Myanmar highlight the importance of a social protection system that embraces the older population, their families and communities. This window of opportunity is limited in time and should not be missed.

• ICT, Development, and Poverty Reduction: Five Emerging Stories

  Posted:22 Mar 2013 09:02:19 GMT

  this article is mostly about mobile phone access and use, as this is the dominant story of the last decade for people in the bottom or base of the pyramid. This is not to deny the importance of broadband, Internet connection, or computers and devices with computing power much greater than that of mobiles. Initiatives in telecenter development and “one laptop per child,” for example, are important in bringing more complex services to poor people, and have had mixed success and reviews. Unlike mobile phone penetration, these technologies have been driven more by public and nongovernmental organizations than by market supply and demand. What is clear is the importance of increasing mobile phone access and mobile-based services prior to the proliferation of broadband in the BoP, no matter which forms that eventually takes.

• Are Bangladesh’s Recent Gains in Poverty Reduction Different from the Past?

  Posted:18 Mar 2013 09:07:03 GMT

  The poor in Bangladesh are more likely to belong to households with a larger number of dependents, lower education, engaged in daily wage labor, own little land and less likely to receive remittances. This poverty profile for 2005 is similar to those in the mid-1980s apparently indicating that little has changed over time. A closer look at the survey data, however, suggests a much more nuanced story. The paper uses two rounds of the Bangladesh Household Income and Expenditure Survey (HIES) to decompose the micro-determinants of poverty reduction between 2000 and 2005 closely following similar analysis using earlier rounds of the HIES from the 1980s and 1990s. The comparison of results shows that the spatial distribution of poverty has changed over the three decades, the drivers of poverty reduction are different in several respects, and that policies to spur further reduction in poverty need to be adjusted in the light of these shifts over time.

• Spatial Dimensions of Income Inequality and Poverty in Bangladesh: An Analysis of the 2005 and 2010 Household Income and Expenditure Survey Data

  Posted:18 Mar 2013 09:06:58 GMT

  Using 2005 and 2010 Household Income and Expenditure Survey (HIES)data, the paper examines income inequality and poverty in Bangladesh with focus on their spatial dimensions. As disparity among administrative divisions is small, such inequalities, especially in the urban areas, need policy attention. As education appears to play an important role in increasing urban inequality, raising the level of general education is essential. Similarly, wages and salaries contribute to mitigating inequality which points to expanding opportunities for earning formal incomes. Though the effects are likely to be small, transfer programmes may be expanded to raise incomes among the poorest. In addition to raising general educational level, it is necessary to provide primary education throughout the country in order to mitigate poverty. It is imperative to raise agricultural productivity in both rural and urban sectors.

• Addressing Extreme Poverty in a Sustainable Manner: Evidence from CFPR Programme

  Posted:18 Mar 2013 09:06:54 GMT

  BRAC initiated an innovative programme known as Challenging the Frontiers of Poverty Reduction (CFPR) in 2002 to address the extreme poverty in Bangladesh. Impact assessment studies on the first phase of CFPR (2002-06) have shown that the programme had significant positive impacts on the livelihoods of the participant households. However, whether this impact on livelihoods is sustainable or not remained the key research question. Based on panel data from three rounds of survey (2002, 2005 and 2008), this study explores sustainability of livelihood impacts of the first phase of CFPR. The findings show that programme impacts on income, employment, food security and asset holding were mostly sustainable in the long-run. Magnitude of impact on per capita income was found to be increased over time. Livestock and poultry holding increased substantially among the programme participants due to mainly transfer of these assets by the programme and the increase sustained in the long-run.

• Asset Transfer Programme for the Ultra Poor: A Randomized Control Trial Evaluation

  Posted:18 Mar 2013 09:06:48 GMT

  The world's poorest people lack both capital and skills and are trapped in low return occupations.Whether their economic lives can be transformed by programmes which attempt to tackle both constraints by providing assets and training to enable them to run small businesses is however unknown. To shed light on this issue we conduct a randomized evaluation of an entrepreneurship programme that provides assets and training to the poorest women in rural Bangladesh. We find that the programme transforms the occupational choices of the poor women who participated in the programme by inducing them to spend more time in self-employment, less in wage labour and increases their labour market participation, leading to a 36% increase in annual income on average. Moreover, the programme leads to an increase in wages at the village level and its effects spillover to other poor women who experience an increase in labour supply and income.

• Skills development for inclusive and sustainable growth in developing Asia-Pacific

  Posted:13 Mar 2013 21:26:49 GMT

  As countries in Asia and the Pacific recalibrate their growth models to consolidate their positions in the global economy, availability of a highly skilled and technically qualified human resource base will be a crucial determinant of success. This publication compiles valuable contributions to advance thinking and practice related to skills development in the Asian-Pacific region.
  
  Findings include:
  

  • education and skills development are crucial to achieving inclusive growth and sustainable green growth
  • specifically, countries with a youthful demographic profile need to consider strategies that would improve job prospects for young adults, and technical and vocational education and training (TVET)are key part of such strategies
  • therefore, skills development for employability has been identified as a priority area for educational policy and practice in Asia-Pacific
  • however, a number of countries are yet to ensure adequate harmonisation of skills and training policies with economic and industrial policies

  
  Recommendations are as follows:
  

  • countries need forward-looking skills policies so that appropriate occupational skills are available to fast-growing and emerging sectors of the economy
  • skills training policies need to be augmented with labour market and social protection policies to redress the obstacles to workforce participation, increase employment, and reduce vulnerability of employment
  • a conducive regulatory environment is needed for private sector players to occupy a legitimate space for financing and providing skills training
  • industry support is required in the design and delivery of a responsive and diversified skills training program that focuses on applied learning
  • specialised strategies for skills training for small and medium enterprises is required to increase employment prospects for workers in the informal sector
  • advocacy and support systems for vulnerable groups to participate in labour markets should be considered

  

• The Role of ICT in Enhancing Local Economic Development and Poverty Reduction

  Posted:13 Mar 2013 09:02:56 GMT

  The paper discusses the foundations for establishing a viable and sustainable ICT industry and the opportunities it offers against the challenges many African countries face in their concerted efforts to participate fully in the information society and knowledge economy. Key ICT Policy thrusts are discussed focusing on the ICT as a sector, egovernment, e-governance and the education and training sectors. It is important to emphasize the need for government to be e-literate in order to competently manage and monitor the ICT sector. It is reaffirmed that ICT is crosscutting and an enabler for growth and development and for maximum benefit, countries must establish the right policy interventions, resource investments, appropriate networks (partnerships) and enabling environment. Four case studies that assist in mitigating effects of poverty and e-literacy are briefly discussed in order to show the impact of ICTs in agriculture, egovernment and rural districts.

• Social security coverage extension in the BRICS: a comparative study on the extension of coverage in Brazil, the Russian Federation, India, China and South Africa

  Posted:12 Mar 2013 13:38:02 GMT

  The five countries of the BRICS, Brazil, the Russian Federation, India, China and South Africa, are facing some common challenges with regard to ageing of their populations, urbanisation, vulnerability to environmental shocks, increasing labour market fragmentation, growing income disparity, and the need to more fully exploit and leverage information and communications technologies.
  
  In view of these significant trends, the International Social Security Association (ISSA) Secretariat has launched a project on social security developments in the BRICS countries, with special emphasis on the extension of coverage. The overall objective of this project is to promote the implementation of the ISSA strategy for the extension of social security coverage launched at the 2010 World Social Security Forum in Cape Town, and thereby assist ISSA member institutions in the BRICS and other countries in their efforts to extend coverage in both qualitative and quantitative terms.
  
  The findings of this comparative study are intended to provide an important input into an ISSA series of handbooks on extension of coverage to difficult-to-cover groups. It highlights common barriers to increasing coverage and offers pragmatic and innovative policies and administrative responses to address those barriers.

• Gender and urban poverty in South Asia: proceedings report of the 2012 subregional workshop

  Posted:04 Mar 2013 12:10:50 GMT

  This report is the product of a sub-regional workshop on Gender and Urban Poverty in South Asia. The report highlights key gender issues in urban development and lessons learned from good practices that are achieving both gender equality results and sustainable urban development outcomes.
  
  Demonstrating the links between gender and socially inclusive urban development programs, the paper states that women are particularly vulnerable to the risks associated with urban poverty.
  
  Findings encompass:
  

  • most urban development policies do not explicitly address gender and social issues in South Asia developing member countries
  • South Asian women have weak participation and low representation in decision-making structures and processes related to urban services and governance
  • as a result, women’s needs and priorities are rarely considered in urban planning and investments

  
  Identically, the document suggests the following common approaches to gender and socially inclusive urban planning and governance:
  

  • in-depth surveys and separate consultations to understand the different needs and priorities of men and women
  • awareness-raising campaigns to promote women’s participation in preparing community action plans
  • mandatory quotas for women’s representation in local decision-making structures
  • partnerships between municipal bodies, the private sector, and local NGOs and CBOs to empower women to become change agents in their communities
  • integrate gender-inclusive measures in the operational work and institutional strategies of the government agencies and their counterparts

  
  Moreover, the author suggests that gender-inclusive delivery of urban infrastructure and services should be strengthened. In particular, the paper emphasises that gendered investments in this field can have significant impacts on gender equality and women’s empowerment. The document illustrates that this can reduce women’s time poverty and improve their capabilities through access to resources, economic opportunities, and decision-making power.

• Developing the service sector as engine of growth for Asia: an overview

  Posted:26 Feb 2013 22:22:09 GMT

  The maturing of the manufacturing sector in many Asian countries, combined with the relative backwardness of its service sector, has made service sector development a top priority for developing Asia. This paper surveys and analyses the current landscape of the region’s service sector so as to assess its potential to serve as an engine for inclusive economic growth.
  
  The paper figures that services already account for a large share of the region’s output and employment. However, its productivity greatly lags that of the advanced economies, which implies ample room for further growth.
  
  Conclusions are as follows:
  

  • there is plenty of scope of further enhancement and development for Asia’s service sector
  • Asia’s future growth will depend increasingly on raising productivity in the service sector
  • one key challenge for all Asian countries is to improve the quality of service sector data

  
  Recommendations include:
  

  • creating more competitive services markets by removing a wide range of internal and external policy distortions is vital for improving service sector productivity
  • internally, this include the strengthening of labour and capital markets, reform of tax regimes, and elimination of burdensome regulations
  • externally, this involves reducing barriers to trade in services, which can promote efficiency and contribute directly to exports and growth
  • equally important, complementary investments in physical infrastructure and human capital will also be necessary to achieve a strong service sector

  
  The authors finally make a point that creating a more competitive environment for service industries must be the overall guiding principle for Asian policymakers.

• Is Timor-Leste’s growth inclusive?

  Posted:25 Feb 2013 21:28:38 GMT

  The newly independent Timor-Leste has established itself as one of the fastest growing economies in Asia and the Pacific. This study examines the first decade of the restoration of independence to assess if Timor-Leste’s economic growth has been inclusive.
  
  The author points that the concentration of economic activity in the capital has raised the concern that the better off members of society are capturing most of the benefits. However, the paper finds that opportunity has been provided to a larger share of the population, with those on lower as well as higher living standards enjoying more opportunity.
  
  Findings are as follows:
  

  • in Timor-Leste, opportunity generally increased across all living standard groups, including the poorest
  • it is evident that inequality in opportunity is generally in decline
  • inclusive growth overall is driven by improvements in education and health care
  • nevertheless, inequality is still high for some services (e.g. electricity), and access to some other services deteriorated (i.e. transport and improved sanitation)

  
  The author deems that inclusive growth has been achieved in Timor-Leste, but he emphasises that if the growth is to remain inclusive, it will be important to maintain the upward movement in average opportunity and the decline in inequality. Therefore, there will be a need to prioritise support for the poorest Timorese and achieve improvements in the lagging sectors.
  
  Conclusions are that:
  

  • within Timor-Leste, development is equated with access to basic services
  • minimum standards of service delivery are proposed as a safeguard for the poorest Timorese; this would reduce inequality and ultimately equalise the distribution of opportunity
  • moreover, such standards would put into practice the aspiration of the Timor-Leste Strategic Development Plan 2011–2030 of sustainable, inclusive development

  

• The service sector in Asia: is it an engine of growth?

  Posted:24 Feb 2013 19:54:24 GMT

  This study argues that the underdeveloped service sector in Asia has the potential to become a new engine of economic growth for developing Asia, though the region has traditionally relied on export-oriented manufacturing to power its growth.
  
  The paper reveals that its analysis provides substantial cause for optimism about the role of the service sector as an engine of growth in Asia. In this sense, it highlights that:
  

  • the analysis of 12 Asian economies indicates that the service sector already contributes substantially to the region’s growth
  • furthermore, in the past, the service sector made the biggest contribution to national GDP growths comparing with other sectors
  • a number of Asian countries have been able to achieve substantial labour productivity gains in the service sector
  • in addition, the share of service sector output that is exported tends to rise over time in most Asian countries, and that is higher than developed countries

  
  The authors conclude that services are set to play an even bigger role in the future, underlying particularly that the lower the per capita GDP, the greater the scope for labour productivity growth in the service sector.
  
  However, the document stresses that a wide range of internal impediments—e.g., excessive regulation and state monopolies—and external impediments—e.g., barriers to services trade and FDI—shackle Asia’s service sector. The paper argues that removing those obstacles will unleash the full potential of Asia’s service sector to generate jobs and growth.

• Convergence in Per Capita Income across Regions in Bangladesh

  Posted:24 Feb 2013 09:02:21 GMT

  This paper examines per capita income convergence across six divisions – Dhaka, Chittagong, Rajshahi, Khulna, Sylhet, and Barisal − in Bangladesh using annual data covering 1977-2000. The methodology uses ordinary least squares as well as time series approach, specifically unit root and cointegration techniques. The findings, however, do not provide enough evidence in favor of the convergence hypothesis even though the regions have similar socio-economic background, physical infrastructure, and access to the same financial system, administrative institutions, and technology. The series of income deviations from the benchmark fail to reject the null of non-stationarity in most cases. However, the presence of cointegration between various economic factors and the leading regions suggests the presence of long-run equilibrium relationship among them. Therefore, proper attention in terms of providing infrastructural as well as technological and financial support to the lagging regions may b

• Reducing inequality and poverty while mitigating climate change: key challenges for research and practice in middle-income countries in Africa and Latin America

  Posted:22 Feb 2013 17:08:28 GMT

  This working paper, produced by the Mitigation Action Plans and Scenarios (MAPS) programme, investigates the relationship between emissions, inequality and poverty in middle-income countries in Africa and Latin America. Research on this topic is of particular importance, since changing global demographics mean that the majority of the world's poor now live in middle-income countries.
  
  The paper finds that, with economic growth contributing to greater emissions, a trade-off appears between the two that decreases as a country’s gross domestic product (GDP) grows. Further analysis suggests that environmental degradation increases and then declines as GDP grows, but carbon emissions continue to grow with GDP. The relationship between inequality and emissions is also discussed; evidence suggests that in relatively equal societies, increased inequality correlates with decreased emissions, with the inverse suggested for countries of high inequality, i.e. lower inequality/lower emissions (shown on a graph as a shallow 'U'). The research suggests that there is an opportunity for the growing number of middle-income countries to both reduce emissions and combat poverty. However, only the most unequal poor countries could do likewise, because most would suffer a significant trade-off between the two.
  
  Two case studies, South Africa and Brazil, are analysed to investigate the relationship between per capita emissions and inequality in middle-income countries. In Brazil, rates of emissions and inequality reflect the development and economic choices of successive governments. Until 1994, emission and inequality levels closely correlated, rising and falling together. Since then, GDP and emissions have grown, but redistributive social policies have seen inequality decrease. In South Africa, a long history of inequality founded on racial segregation has contributed to lack of reduction in inequality alongside economic growth, with per capita emissions remaining steady. With emissions largely concentrated in the coal-based energy sector, South Africa is well placed to design mitigation actions while continuing social policies aimed at poverty reduction and reducing inequality.

• Local faith communities and the promotion of resilience in humanitarian situations: a scoping survey

  Posted:21 Feb 2013 17:33:43 GMT

  Local Faith Communities (LFCs) are groupings of religious actors bonded through shared allegiance to institutions, beliefs, history or identity. They engage in a range of activities across the humanitarian spectrum. Resilience – defined as the ability to anticipate, withstand and bounce back from external pressures and shocks – is increasingly a central construct in the shaping of humanitarian strategy by the international community. Faith groups are often central to strengthening resilience and reinforcing the local processes of identity and connection that comprise the social fabric of communities disrupted by disaster or conflict. There is increasing recognition of LFCs’ roles by the mainstream humanitarian community, as evidenced by emerging research and international dialogues on faith, such as the UNHCR Dialogue on Faith and Protection in December 2012. However there are a number of challenges to establishing partnerships with LFCs. This Joint Learning Initiative (JLI) on Faith and Local Communities is seeking to understand the role of LFCs in strengthening resilience, and to address three challenges to full engagement with LFCs: a lack of evidence regarding the impact of LFCs on individual and community resilience; a lack of trust, knowledge and capacity for such engagement; and the need for clear, implementable actions to improve partnership and the effectiveness of humanitarian response. This scoping document investigates the evidence for LFC contribution to resilience under the guidance of the JLI Resilience Learning Hub, membership of which is made up of 20 practitioners, academics and policymakers expert in humanitarian services and faith communities.

• Inequality in Rural Bangladesh in the 2000s: Trends and Causes

  Posted:21 Feb 2013 09:01:24 GMT

  This paper has investigated the patterns of inequality that have emerged in rural Bangladesh in the decade of the 2000s. Two findings stand out clearly– distribution of income has become more unequal over the decade, and, somewhat surprisingly, distribution of consumption has remained more or less unchanged despite widening income inequality. The main analytical task of the paper was to search for the underlying causes responsible for these two apparently contradictory trends. The root of widening income inequality was found to lie in the unequalising effects of foreign remittance, and to a lesser extent, that of income from self-employment in non-agricultural activities. These two sources of income were also the driving force behind rapid growth of the rural economy. This poses a trade-off between growth and equity, which the policymakers need to resolve – for example, by making foreign migration more affordable to people of small means.

• The luck of the development draw: environmental volatility and the takeoff to modern economic growth

  Posted:20 Feb 2013 09:01:30 GMT

  This paper tests the implications of a model which gives a central role to luck − in the form of good versus bad draws − in the process of economic development. An obvious potential source of good versus bad draws is environmental volatility, particularly in the context of developing economies which tend to be heavily dependent on agricultural output. The study uses rainfall data and a finite mixture model to test the effect of environmental volatility on comparative economic development. It finds that climate variables exert a direct influence on income, even when institutions have been controlled for. The results show that poorer countries are vulnerable to environmental volatility, which appears to delay their takeoff to modern economic growth. The study implies that these results may have important implications for development policy and studies on the expected costs of future climate change. The paper also includes a revised definition of the takeoff concept.

• Cambodia: rapid growth with institutional constraints

  Posted:18 Feb 2013 21:27:19 GMT

  The features of Cambodia’s development record are of particular importance .This paper examines Cambodia’s socioeconomic development since the early 1990s peace settlement.
  
  The paper notes that the country’s economic growth has seemingly been the fastest among post-conflict societies, and the growth has been driven by a number of factors. These include the credible restoration of security, large public and private capital inflows, economic openness, prudent macroeconomic management, and an integrating neighborhood.
  
  Findings contain:
  

  • Cambodia has achieved much more rapid economic development over the past 2 decades than even the most optimistic forecasts could have projected
  • the Cambodian people are now better educated and fed, and they have greater social and occupational choice than ever before
  • at this rate of progress, the country will very shortly graduate from the ‘least developed’ group of countries, and within a decade or so, it would enter the middle-income developing group

  
  However, the paper highlights some key challenges, including rising inequality, uneven spatial development, weak institutions, and high levels of corruption. In addition, Key supply side challenges remain, particularly education at all levels and rural infrastructure. Furthermore, Cambodia has limited space in its trade and commercial policies, and it does not have monetary policy independence.
  
  Looking forward, the author emphasises the importance of strengthening supply side capabilities, broadening the benefits of growth, and developing stronger institutions and property rights. Additionally, the document underscores that the priority of growth at all costs will need to give way to greater attention to distributional considerations, between households, regions, and particularly the capital and the rest of the country.
  

• Overlooked opportunity: tradable business services, developing Asia, and growth

  Posted:17 Feb 2013 20:13:46 GMT

  Business services are key for growth. This paper argues that developing Asia is overlooking an opportunity for increased growth and development through trade in business services.
  
  The paper argues that developing Asia would benefit from liberalising services trade as it has benefited from liberalising goods trade - the same potential exists in business services.
  
  Findings include:
  

  • Asian business service sectors are relatively small and expensive
  • in fact, many business services are tradable, but developing Asia has relatively high barriers to services trade

  
  Recommendations are that:
  

  • developing Asia should reduce policy impediments to business services trade
  • the long run fix to small and expensive business service sector is to increase the skill abundance of Asia
  • in this context, increasing educational attainment in developing Asia is likely to resolve this issue over the long term, so the region should continue to make education a priority
  • similarly, all Asian countries should collect and publish more detailed information on the service sector and its trade - to understand what is happening in the service sector requires a much richer view than is currently possible
  • however, in the short run, it makes sense to import business services from the developing world and take advantage of the gains to trade in this large and vital sector

  

• A ZEN approach to post-2015: addressing the range of perspectives across Asia and the Pacific

  Posted:16 Feb 2013 22:45:54 GMT

  The Asia and the Pacific region is gaining increased influence in the world economy but is still grappling to overcome interrelated challenges of poverty and sustainable development. This paper discusses key challenges faced throughout this region, underlying that the region’s priorities will be of significant importance in informing the contents of any post-2015 global development framework.
  
  The paper finds the following:
  

  • despite the region’s overarching economic progress, it still faces a significant task in ending extreme poverty in its many forms
  • in addition, the region will still face deep challenges of relative poverty and inequality, both within and between countries
  • the interrelated challenges of environmental sustainability are also becoming increasingly serious, and the issues are only on track to grow in consequence
  • indeed, many parts of Asia will still need global support in meeting these challenges
  • at the same time, Asia will increasingly need to identify areas where it contributes to meeting global challenges

  
  As a result, the paper suggests a conceptual Asian-based framework for setting a new generation of global goals. The “ZEN” framework stands for the following targets:
  

  • the distinct challenges of achieving zero extreme poverty (Z)
  • setting country-specific “epsilon” benchmarks for broader development challenges (E)
  • promoting environmental sustainability both within and across borders (N)

  
  The author highlights that a viable goal of zero extreme poverty, in Asia and around the world, has the potential to inspire people around the world. Moreover, many of the world’s most significant challenges lie at the intersection of these E and N goals, thus cross-country coordination will be essential to success.
  
  The document recommends the adoption of ZEN framework, claiming that a post-2015 global framework will not achieve success unless it helps addressing Asia’s challenges directly.

• Infrastructure in the comprehensive development of Latin America: strategic diagnosis and proposals for a priority agenda

  Posted:14 Feb 2013 19:49:10 GMT

  In coming decades, Latin America will have the opportunity of consolidating its progress toward comprehensive development. However, this paper argues this will be confirmed only if countries are able to achieve just and equitable societies that promote opportunities and inclusion, and a more diversified insertion in the world economy with greater value added.
  
  The author thinks that to confront these challenges, there need to be substantial improvements in a number of factors such as education, innovation capacity, the quality of institutions, and the quality of infrastructure and its associated services. However, the document notices that infrastructure in Latin America lags behind that of other regions of the world and the lags are more acute in some sectors and countries.
  
  Conclusions contain:
  

  • the strategic agenda for infrastructure in Latin American countries must be based on an understanding of the situation of the infrastructure sectors to extend and improve their services
  • investment efforts in infrastructure must be aimed at increasing the coverage and quality of water and sanitation services, promoting and supporting urban public transportation and developing infrastructure for regional integration
  • the main required elements are financing, improvements in policies, and an adequate consideration of environmental and social aspects
  • the use of multiple financing sources and modalities should be optimised, the use of infrastructure should be rationalised, and the capacity for project preparation in the short term should be strengthened
  • the exchange between governments, regions, and cities should be promoted – the region’s bilateral and multilateral fora constitute valuable initiatives in this direction

  

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