Eldis Middle East and North Africa

The Global Information Technology Report 2013: Growth and Jobs in a Hyperconnected World

B. Bilbao-Osorio (ed) — 07 May 2013 11:26:47 GMT

The Networked Readiness Index presented in this report ranks 144 economies based on their capacity to exploit the opportunities offered by the digital age. This capacity is determined by the quality of the regulatory, business and innovation environments, the degree of preparedness, the actual usage of ICTs, as well as the societal and economic impacts of ICTs. The assessment is based on a broad range of indicators from Internet access and adult literacy to mobile phone subscriptions and the availability of venture capital. In addition, indicators such as patent applications and e-governmentservices gauge the social and economic impact of digitisation.

The Nordic countries and the so-called Asian Tigers – Singapore; Taiwan (China); South Korea; and Hong Kong SAR –
dominate this year's index thanks to, as the report argues, their business-friendly approach, highly skilled populations and investments in infrastructure, among other strengths. Finland stands out as a digital innovation hub. It boasts the world’s highest number of patent applications per capita in the domain of ICTs.

The BRICS economies, led by Russia (55th) continue to lag behind in the rankings. The report suggests that their rapid
economic growth may be in jeopardy unless the right investments are made in ICT, skills and innovation. Down seven, China ranks 58th, followed by Brazil (60th), India (68th), and South Africa (70th).

Violence unsettles Tunisia’s democratic transition

D. Ottaway — 17 Apr 2013 09:02:30 GMT

Tunisia’s transition to democracy, widely regarded as the most successful to emerge from the five uprisings that shook the Arab world in 2011, is being seriously threatened by violence in the wake of a prominent leftist politician’s assassination in early February. The killing of Chokri Belaid has not only triggered a showdown within the ruling Islamic Ennahda Party between its moderate and fundamentalist wings but also deepened the hostility between secularists and Islamists within Tunisian society.

Death from the skies: deliberate and indiscriminate air strikes on civilians

O. Solvang — 17 Apr 2013 09:02:27 GMT

This 80-page report is based on visits to 50 sites of government air strikes in opposition-controlled areas in Aleppo, Idlib, and Latakia governorates, and more than 140 interviews with witnesses and victims. The air strikes documented killed at least 152 civilians. According to a network of local Syrian activists, air strikes have killed more than 4,300 civilians across Syria since July 2012.

Living with the Middle East’s old-new security paradigm

R. Youngs — 17 Apr 2013 09:02:25 GMT

Attention has gradually turned to the geopolitical implications of the Arab spring. It is broadly recognised that ongoing processes of change in the Middle East and North Africa are not just about domestic level political reform but also regional security dynamics. But in this policy brief the author stresses that no strategic framework yet fully captures incipient dynamics in the region. As the document states, both the United States and the European Union frequently repeat that they are committed to shaping their policies around local, Arab expectations and views. The author stress that In the current MENA scenario, the US and the EU must equip themselves to deal with a far more diverse geopolitics.

Yemen’s military-security reform: seeds of new conflict

11 Apr 2013 09:02:22 GMT

On 21 March 2011, amid popular unrest, Yemen’s military fractured along intra-regime battle lines. In response a UN-sponsored implementation document outlined a transition roadmap that includes three principal tasks: holding a national dialogue with the goal of producing a new constitution before elections are held in February 2014; addressing issues of transitional justice; and unifying as well as reforming the armed forces. A year into the transition, some progresshas been made yet the military-security apparatus remains divided. A wide range of activists alsoworry that the military-security apparatus will be further politicised during a fragile period in which the government is split between rival political factions. Extracting the military-security services from the political realm is a critical challenge that, if not met, could threaten Yemen’s transition. This document includes a number of recommendations aimed at all stakeholders in the process.

Economics of climate change in the Arab world: case studies from the Syrian Arab Republic, Tunisia, and the Republic of Yemen

D. Verner — 05 Apr 2013 09:02:32 GMT

Scarce water and high temperatures have shaped the cultures of the Arab region over thousands of years. Today, however, the region is confronting climate variability and change that could alter and threaten development in the region. This report presents detailed case studies on the impacts of climate change in the Syrian Arab Republic, Tunisia and the Republic of Yemen. The Arab region is already being impacted by climate change through more frequent cyclones, floods and prolonged droughts. Thousands of rural producers have seen their crops and herds devastated by extreme conditions, and have been forced to abandon their traditional way of life and migrate to urban areas. Those who stay behind in rural areas struggle to cope with shortages of food and water. This report assesses how severely climate change will affect the three countries and stresses the necessity of considering the impacts of climate change in future development strategies.

The Arab Spring and climate change: a climate and security correlations series

C. Werrell — 20 Mar 2013 09:02:47 GMT

This volume outlines the complex pressures exerted by the effects of climate change on the events which swept through the Middle East in 2010 and 2011, exploring the long-term trends in precipitation, agriculture, food prices and migration which contributed to the social instability and violence which has transformed the region. The publication does not argue that climate change caused the revolutions, but the collection of essays suggest that the consequences of climate change are stressors that can ignite a volatile mix of underlying causes that erupt into revolution. The authors conclude that climate change has acted as a threat multiplier, exacerbating environmental, social, economic and political drivers of unrest and it will likely continue to do so in the Middle East and North Africa region. In this context, addressing the effects of climate change will be critical for ensuring the longer-term stability of the region and legitimacy of its respective governments.

Syria: The evolving problem of competing militias

P Rodgers — 13 Mar 2013 09:02:36 GMT

The war in Syria is currently in a particularly complex phase with conflicting reports of rebel progress. Jihadist militias are growing in strength and capability, making it probable that they will have considerable influence and even power in a post-Assad Syria. At the same time, there are indications that elements supporting the Assad regime, including the Iranian government, recognise this and are planning for the aftermath with their own militias. This paper looks at the latest developments in an increasingly complex conflict.

Losing the Syrian grassroots: local governance structures urgently need support

D Khoury — 13 Mar 2013 09:02:30 GMT

The Syrian grassroots civilian opposition has been the primary engine of the popular uprising against the regime of Bashar Assad. Local arrangements for self-organization have evolved from so-called local coordination committees (LCCs), which are mainly involved in media work and the organization of protests. They have created sophisti- cated structures of civilian administration in the liberated areas of Syria. Currently, the protracted violence, sectarianism, radicalization, lack of coordination among rebel forces and deteriorating social conditions are putting the survival of these LCCs and local opposition councils in serious jeopardy. The achievements in bottom-up mobili- zation and organization, as well as the inclusiveness of these new organizations, could be crucial assets in building a democratic Syria. However, without outside support, already fragile state institutions, are in danger of collapse as communities face the dangers of disintegration.

Transition to democracy in Tunisia: Where to?

E Jeblawi — 13 Mar 2013 09:02:27 GMT

The paper seeks will to assess Tunisia’s transition and ponder the outcome of the period, as a whole. Before anything else, the author stresses, it is important to approach the issue in the context of the need to resolve the pending questions regarding the fate of the transition itself, and people’s expectations of it. The turmoil we are witnessing today, the paper states, reflects major expectations that have become more urgent than any time before, prompting the need to embark on a process of major reforms.

Syrian women and girls: fleeing death, facing ongoing threats and humiliation. A gender-based violence rapid assessment

20 Feb 2013 13:14:38 GMT

At the time this assessment was written, estimates suggested that up to 90,000 Syrian refugees had crossed the border into Lebanon. The International Rescue Committee conducted a rapid assessment on the situation faced by Syrian women and girl refugees in Lebanon, and came up with a number of key findings related to violence. Rape and sexual violence was often reported, with many stories of women and girls being tortured and raped, in their homes and in prison, often in front of family members. Linked to this is an increase in early marriage, as a way to “protect” girls from rape and violence. Intimate partner violence was reported as increasing since the conflict, due to men’s stress and feelings of powerlessness. Survival sex was also noted, with women and girls being forced to sell sex in exchange for food, accommodation or services. Many women reported that they were not accessing services in Lebanon for fear of violence and mistreatment by service providers. There were also concerns about women’s safety when travelling to locations where help is offered, and in the accommodation where they have settled. In addition, women survivors of sexual violence faced an extra level of danger; they feared their families would reject or kill them, or that they would be married to family members for reasons of “honour”. The assessment has four recommendations:

1. Syrian refugee women and girls need access to health and emotional support services
2. Local health providers need technical assistance to increase access to services for survivors of gender based violence
3. Women and girls need material goods and economic support to increase their social and economic capital and mitigate the risks they face
4. GBV coordination structures should be developed or adapted

The report concludes by noting that many of the Syrian refugee women and girls in Lebanon have experienced multiple forms of gender based violence, but it is evident that many are not disclosing this or seeking help due to stigma, exposure to more violence, and barriers to accessing services.

The proposal of common market among Syria, Lebanon, Iraq and Iran: investigating opportunities for agricultural trade

M. Babili — 12 Feb 2013 21:09:40 GMT

The series of recent economic sanctions against Syria imposed by several countries and blocs sparkled the idea of a regional common market that comprises Iran, Iraq, Syria and Lebanon. This paper looks into the actual possibility of establishing this market, and investigates the horizons and opportunities that could be materialised in this context.

The paper finds that it is useful for Syria on the long run to establish a common market that extends from Lebanon to Iran, but currently, it should advance its bilateral trade with each of the other three countries. In addition, the document indicates that such market should be planed carefully, and reached gradually from creating a free trade area to establishing a custom union, and then to developing a common market.

Conclusions include:

the proposed regional market would afford the so-called “economies of scale”, which reduce the production costs and increase the competitive advantages of the region’s products
Syria’s agricultural sector would benefit from this common market much more than its counterparts in the other three countries
Iraq would be the most important trade partner for Syria in this market; therefore, Syria should focus on this from now
reasons causing Syrian-Iranian “terms of trade” to be increasingly in favour of Iran rather than in favour of Syria should be investigated, and relevant resolutions to re-balance this trend should be examined

The author also suggests increasing the exportation of Syrian cheese and pastry to Lebanese and Iraqi markets on the short term, as well as cotton lint to Iranian markets. Moreover, he recommends Syria to plan for exporting cereals to Iraq and citruses to Iran on the long run, but he underlines that improving the competitiveness of these two sectors should be achieved before.

The Norwegian People's Aid, oil and development. A review of Oil for the Common Good (2007-2011)

E. N. Tjonneland — 10 Feb 2013 09:01:11 GMT

The NPA has since 2007 implemented an Oil for the Common Good programme (OCG) with funding from Norad’s Oil for Development programme. The main purpose is to contribute to strengthening democratic control and participation in decision-making processes in petroleum producing countries. Competence building activities have been a major focus in the programme. This review was commissioned by the NPA. The main purpose is to assess the implementation of the programme with a particular focus on achievements and results in relation to objectives; the strengths and weaknesses; and the main challenges facing the programme. The assessment also addresses the relations between the programme and the NPA strategy and the country programmes in the country concerned, and provide recommendations for the next phase.

New Horizons and New Visions: Mobilizing Communities for Girls’ Education in Egypt

25 Jan 2013 19:07:12 GMT

This brief describes the work of the New Visions education programme in Egypt, which is designed to build the life skills of boys and young men, increasing gender sensitivity and reproductive health knowledge. The programme ran between 2002 and 2004, following on from the New Horizons education programme for girls. New Horizons staff had realised that the goal of supporting young women could only be achieved if family members and the broader community were supportive of gender equality. The programme for boys and young men took place in youth centres, and was conducted by volunteer course facilitators, using a specially created facilitator manual. An evaluation conducted in 2004 reported that as a result of attending the sessions, participants:

• Were better able to deal with stress and anger
• Has more gender equitable views on family roles and responsibilities and political participation, and were more likely to support equitable treatment for girls and boys in education, work, dress and marriage
• Had increased knowledge on family planning and modes of HIV transmission
• Displayed more positive attitudes on gender based violence and female genital mutilation, although some traditional views were retained

No revolutions without equality and justice: the struggle for women’s rights in rethinking development in the Arab region

K Mohamadieh — 24 Jan 2013 16:23:08 GMT

This article considers policy practice in the Arab region, highlighting some key areas for consideration in future policy making in the region. The peoples’ revolutions and uprisings in countries such as Egypt, Tunisia and Libya have, the author argues, brought to the surface the need to better understand the relationships between people’s right to development and political governance, social and economic policies. In previous decades, national development was neglected as those in power sought to gain international support by adopting orthodox economic policies. This resulted, the article argues, in growth that did not promote people’s economic and social rights. Nor did it help to achieve women’s rights or to meet goals on equality. Now, the challenge in Arab countries is to rebuild a national development strategy. This must include a focus on women’s civic, political, economic, social and cultural rights, and this focus must be an integral part of the development of policies, not a separate or piecemeal project. The author argues that women’s rights groups in the region must work together with other civil society actors to ensure that the reforms being implemented by states fully include the principles of human rights, non discrimination, justice and equality. This is especially important in a region where “multiple forms of violence and discrimination against women intensify the challenges facing the debate around alternative development paradigms” and women’s rights struggles are already facing a strong backlash.

The article goes on to call for a closer look at the growth policies that benefit women, and those that go further – actually helping to tackle gender inequality. The sub sections that follow consider policies on production, investment and trade, and financial institutions. The article concludes by observing that post-revolution, governments, policy makers and civil society organisations increasingly refer to citizens’ rights and use pro-poor rhetoric in their agendas. But it is essential for people to question whether this rhetoric is put into practice within economic and development strategies and policies, and whether women’s rights and social justice is prioritised.

Climate-driven or human-induced: indicating severe water scarcity in the Moulouya river basin (Morocco)

V. Tekken — 09 Jan 2013 09:01:11 GMT

Many agriculture-based economies are increasingly under stress from climate change and socio-economic pressures. In the Moulouya river basin, Morocco, natural water availability is a key resource for all economic activities and frequently occurring water deficits aggravated by climate change threaten many livelihoods dependent on agricultural production. This paper analyses the impact of climate change on the per capita water availability under inclusion of population trends. The Climatic Water Balance (CWB) shows a significant decrease for the winter period, causing adverse effects for the main agricultural season. The paper finds that regional development focusing on the water-intense sectors of agriculture and tourism appears to be especially at risk. Institutional capacities and policies need to address this problem, and the prompt implementation of innovative water production and efficiency measures is recommended.

Adaptation to a changing climate in the Arab countries: a case for adaptation governance and leadership in building climate resilience

D. Verner — 13 Dec 2012 09:01:22 GMT

The Arab people have been adapting to climate change for thousands of years, but over the next century global climatic variability is predicted to increase unprecedentedly. This report assesses the potential effects of climate change on the Arab region and outlines possible approaches and measures to prepare for its consequences. It offers Arab policymakers ideas and suggestions for mitigation actions in rural and urban settings to safeguard key areas such as health, water, agriculture and tourism. The report also analyses the differing impacts of climate change, with special attention paid to gender. The report suggests that countries and households will need to diversify their production and income generation, integrate adaptation into all policymaking and activities, and ensure a sustained national commitment to address the social, economic and environmental consequences of climate variability.

From Climate Antagonists to Low-Carbon Protagonists? The Changing Role of the Gulf OPEC States in the UNFCCC

A. Michaelowa — 20 Nov 2012 09:01:01 GMT

Surging domestic energy consumption in the Gulf region is increasingly threatening oil and gas export revenues. The United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Saudi Arabia are initiating multiple experiments to improve energy efficiency and introduce renewable energy, prompting the emergence of new domestic actors. Still, the legacy of rentierism hinders many of these efforts. The former antagonistic stance of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states in the international climate regime is being replaced by cautious signals of a more constructive engagement, such as in the willingness of Qatar to host COP 18. The resulting opportunities for constructive and innovative dialogues should not be wasted, and premature statements from Northern governments predicting a failure for COP 18 might be counterproductive. Climate diplomacy should instead try to strengthen the position of those groups in favour of new domestic energy policies.

Building Our Capabilities to Support Transformative Change in the MENA Region

A. Rathmell — 16 Nov 2012 09:01:12 GMT

The transitional states of the Middle East and North Africa (e.g. Tunisia, Morocco, Egypt) provide an opportunity for the UK and its partners to support lasting positive change. However, in order to do so, we need to go beyond our traditional approaches and existing instruments. This brief paper outlines some of the approaches that will be required. The UK has not done a bad job of riding the wave of change in MENA. It has sought to balance conflicting interests and made fairly effective use of the tools at its disposal to nudge change in a direction that suits UK interests. However, the rapid pace of events has been dealt with in a typically British, incremental manner. The autor argues that the UK will need to: go further in upgrading its traditional instruments of statecraft, revisit how it supports “democracy promotion”, use traditional assets differently, and catch up with the emerging phenomenon of citizen-centred foreign policy.

Adaptive capacity of transboundary basins in the Mediterranean, the Middle East and the Sahel

A. Milman — 16 Nov 2012 09:00:47 GMT

Responses to climate change in a transboundary river basin depend not on national and subnational capacities alone, but also on the ability of co-riparian nations to communicate, coordinate and cooperate across their international boundary. Evaluating transboundary river basins in light of their transboundary adaptive capacity sheds lights on likely ‘hotspots’ or areas of concern, as a lack of adaptive capacity in a region at high risk of increased water hazards may lead to both international tensions and decreases in human security. To evaluate the adaptive capacity of transboundary river basins in the Mediterranean, the Middle East and the Sahel, this study draws from research on international environmental cooperation to develop a framework of transboundary adaptive capacity. The characteristics included in the framework are translated into measurable indicators and calculated for each of the 42 basins in the study area.

Remittances to transit countries: the impact on Sudanese refugee livelihoods in Cairo

K. Jacobsen (ed) — 08 Nov 2012 11:29:45 GMT

Transit countries are way stations or stopping points in the journey of migrants and refugees from their countries of origin to their intended destination countries. Many migrants and refugees become ‘stuck’, often for years, unable to either move onward or to return to their home countries.

This study focuses on the significance of these transnational linkages, particularly remittances, for Sudanese migrants in Egypt. It aims to fill gaps in knowledge about the livelihoods of refugees in the urban centres of transit countries. ‘Stuck’ migrants engage in a range of social and economic activities that have implications both for their host countries, and, through their transnational links, for their home countries.

The report concludes:

many Sudanese survive on a very small income and struggle to make ends meet
only a small minority can rely on remittances to help them out
however it is possible that non-refugee migrants, especially those with family members working abroad, receive higher levels of remittances
refugees in Egypt place them in the lowest economic stratum, and most cannot remit cash to Sudan
the study indicates entry points for both the international community and the Sudanese diaspora to support livelihoods, but more research is needed to understand better what effects such support might have
research suggests that coping strategies based on borrowing lead to debt and greater vulnerability, but more research is needed about the impact of debt.
mechanisms could be created that enable refugees to avoid borrowing, for example, providing emergency cash grants
while findings are specific to Sudanese refugees in Egypt, the research tools, mapping approach and methods developed, are replicable in other cities and in a future study could be used to compare the experience of other refugee populations in Cairo, such as the Iraqis and the Eritreans

The residential solar water heaters (SWH) market in Lebanon in 2011: how can sound governmental policies boost a green economy

N. H. Shehadeh — 05 Nov 2012 09:00:55 GMT

Using the example of the Lebanese Ministry of Energy and Water’s (MEW) support for the residental solar water heating (SWH) market, this report highlights how sound governmental policies can boost a green economy. It evaluates the creation of a national financing mechanism for SWH, including the effects of government subsidies, interest free loans and sales activities in the residential SWH market in 2011. The study finds that installing solar water heaters saved a total of 18,390 tons of carbon dioxide resulting in a yearly saving of US$ 3,754,687. The success of the financing mechanism is attributed to close cooperation among the Central Bank of Lebanon, the MEW and the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP). Recommendations include: increase awareness raising efforts; build capacity for commercial banks that facilitate solar loans to avoid delays and to simplify applications; and provide risk guarantees for low and middle income households.

The climate investment funds: in action

24 Oct 2012 09:01:14 GMT

The Climate Investment Fund (CIF) provides developing countries with concessional loans, equity, grants and risk mitigation instruments to leverage financing from multilateral banks, the private sector and other sectors. The African Development Bank (AfDB) is one of the five implementing agencies for the CIF concessional funds to Africa; this report is AfDB’s first semi-annual report on the CIF. It highlights projects and investment plans in 15 African countries and the Middle East and North African region (MENA) that aim to support transformations in clean technology, climate resilient development, increased energy access through renewable energy and sustainable management of forests. Highlighted achievements include investment plan approvals for the Scaling-Up Renewable Energy Program (SPREP) in Ethiopia, Kenya and Mali, and allocations to Nigeria to implement its Clean Technology Fund (CTF) investment plan.

Social protection for food security: A report by the High Level Panel of Experts on Food Security and Nutrition

12 Oct 2012 09:01:06 GMT

Social protection has risen rapidly up the development policy agenda in the last decade. There is also a clear trend to making social protection, as well as food security, ‘rights-based’ rather than ‘discretionary’. Yet no clear consensus has so far emerged concerning many basic design choices and implementation of social protection policies and programs. This report looks at ways to lessen vulnerability through social and productive safety net programs and policies with respect to food and nutritional security, taking into consideration differing conditions across countries and regions. It also reviews the impact of existing policies for the improvement of living conditions and resilience of vulnerable populations and the benefits of social protection measures on improving local production and livelihoods and promoting better nutrition.

Conflict in Yemen: From Ethnic Fighting to Food Riots

26 Sep 2012 09:01:21 GMT

Yemen is considered a global terrorist base for Al-Qaeda and violence is threatening social order. The socio-economic origins of violence have changed. Prior to 2008, violence can be attributed to inter-group conflict between distinct ethnic and religious groups. Starting in 2008, increasing global food prices triggered a new wave of violence that spread to the endemically poor southern region. This violence shares its origins with other food riots and the recent Arab Spring. Loss of social order and the threat of terror organisations can be addressed by directly eliminating the causes of violence. Inter-group violence can be addressed by delineating within-country provinces for local autonomy of ethnic and religious groups. The impact of food prices can be alleviated by direct food price interventions, or by addressing the root causes of global food price increases in US policies. This is most urgent, as a new bubble in food prices has been projected to begin before the end of 2012.

Blue Carbon - First Level Exploration of Blue Carbon in the Arabian Peninsula, with Special Focus on the UAE and Abu Dhabi. A Rapid Feasibility Study 2011.

S. J. Lutz — 05 Jul 2012 09:01:11 GMT

Healthy natural coastal ecosystems, such as mangrove forests, saltwater marshlands and seagrass meadows provide a vast array of important co-benefits to coastal communities around the world, including throughout the Arabian Peninsula. These benefits include ecosystem services such as a rich cultural heritage; the protection of shorelines from storms; erosion or sea-level rise; food from fisheries; maintenance of water quality; and landscape beauty for recreation and ecotourism. In a “Blue Carbon” context these ecosystems also store and sequester potentially vast amounts of carbon in sediments and biomass.

The impact of population ageing on international capital flows

A Narciso — 01 Jul 2012 09:00:58 GMT

This paper studies the relationship between demographical factors and international capital flows. It analyses the impact of ageing on foreign direct investments (FDI) and foreign portfolio investments (FPI) on a bilateral level. Results suggest that the current and future age structure of the nation has significant effect on current international capital flows.

Libya: post-war challenges

D. Vandewalle — 29 Jun 2012 23:18:10 GMT

The economic, social, and political challenges Libyans will face in the aftermath of its civil war will be enormous. This paper demonstrates that with the state's economic and political institutions having been weakened, Libya will need to restructure its economy.

The authors indicate that the re-construction of the institutions of the former Libya will not be necessary. Rather, Libya will need to create the features that mark modern states and modern economies. Consequently, the document introduces the following conclusions:

the reconstruction of Libya will need to be both integrated and systemic, interweaving various social, political, legal, and economic initiatives
these initiatives should help prevent the kind of backsliding that disparate efforts at economic and legal reform or political liberalisation, if made in isolation, often provoke
Libya will need to move away from excessive reliance on the state and on hydrocarbon revenues while becoming more subject to regulation, and efficiency concerns and diversification
particularly, trade and entrepreneurship will remain high priorities for any future Libyan government
these policies will be required especially to help Libya’s large number of unemployed citizens to work
still, a crucial component will be the recruitment and retention of competent personnel and bureaucrats from the pre-civil war period

Nonetheless, in order to make economic reforms work, the paper underscores that Libya will simultaneously need to:

develop a political formula that is acceptable to different segments of the population
create a system of law and accountability that serves its citizens equitably and provides clear guidelines for its economy

Libya beyond the revolution: challenges and opportunities

R. Chami — 29 Jun 2012 22:15:48 GMT

The conflict in Libya in 2011 had a severe impact on the economy, but the contraction is expected to be temporary. This paper demonstrates that Libya has the potential for a robust diverse and inclusive growth.

The paper highlights that:

in the short term, the authorities need to balance recurrent spending pressures against the need for fiscal sustainability and prospects for private-sector development
over the medium term, the main challenge will be reorienting the economy away from hydrocarbon dependence and promoting job creation and inclusive growth
in this sense, medium-term efforts should focus on capacity building, private-sector development and improving education, as well as putting in place an effective social safety net
indeed, there is significant scope for diversification into tourism and trade, in light of Libya’s rich archeological sites, Mediterranean climate, and proximity to major European markets
nevertheless, Libya will need to upgrade basic infrastructure, including roads and electricity, with investment targeted at removing obstacles to economic development
in addition, there is a need to set up a clear macro-fiscal policy framework with a consistent fiscal rule reflecting the country’s economic objectives

Key conclusions contain:

ensuring macroeconomic stability and maintaining investor confidence require greater policy coordination among various institutions
fiscal consolidation will be required to provide the needed space for capital and reconstruction spending while preserving long-term fiscal sustainability

The authors lastly point that Libya’s wealth opens a choice of paths for the future: it can fall into the fake-development trap of many resource-rich countries, or it can pursue a course of sustainable and inclusive development.

The Blue Peace: rethinking Middle East water

S. Waslekar — 29 Jun 2012 09:04:03 GMT

The objective of this report is to provide a comprehensive, long-term and regional framework for thinking about water in the Middle East, which can be implemented with specific policy decisions, beginning in the immediate future, by individual countries or small groups of countries without waiting for all the countries in the region to move forward. Such a framework recognises the potential of water to deliver a new form of peace – the blue peace – while presenting long term scenarios of risks of wars and humanitarian crisis. The report takes a comprehensive view of rivers, tributaries, lakes and underground water bodies. It is based on the recognition of linkages between watercourses. It is not only impossible for any one country to manage a water body in isolation from other riparian countries but it is also impossible to manage a water body without examining its linkages with other watercourses in the region.

The Toppling of Ben Ali: Isolated Development or First Domino? Comparable Challenges - Varying Conditions

M. Asseburg — 28 Jun 2012 09:02:19 GMT

The authors compare the socio-political situation in Tunesia before the fall of the country’s President with that of neighbouring Arab states. The analysis shows that although economic conditions are comparable in most of the Maghreb and Arab countries, republics such as Algeria, Libya, Egypt or Syria are more unstable than monarchies like Morocco or Jordan – as underlined by recent developments in Egypt. The tense situation in the regionthe paper states, might be an opportunity for the EU and its member states to establish a new consensus about the objectives of the future policy towards the Euro-Mediterranean Partnership.

Making migration a development factor: the case of North and West Africa

27 Jun 2012 09:00:43 GMT

Migration can be a positive factor in the development of countries of origin through two main channels - remittances and return migration. But, in looking at five countries (Algeria, Mauritania, Morocco, Senegal and Tunisia) this report shows how the global financial crisis has aggravated the already difficult employment situation in North and West Africa. There is little incentive for migrants to return to their home countries, and this paper looks at how to make migration, employment and development mutually supportive.

Arab Donors: Implications for Future Development Cooperation

27 Jun 2012 09:00:16 GMT

This paper provides an overview of Arab donors and examines possibilities for greater cooperation with European development partners. Arab donors have a long history as aid providers. From 1973 to 2008, Arab official development assistance (ODA) averaged 1.5% of their combined gross national income, double the United Nations target of 0.7% (World Bank 2010). Historically these resources have been directed towards the Middle East and North Africa, often as concessional loans to infrastructure. The prevalence of unreported transfers means that there is limited knowledge of total resources and how these are used. However, there are signs of changing practice, with key Arab donors providing support to a range of countries outside the Arab region and some strengthened transparency over aid flows.

Government procurement agreement and provisions: leveling its relevance to Syria

M. Babili — 11 Jun 2012 20:33:57 GMT

Government procurement (GP) is one of the few subjects that are still not covered in the multilateral negotiations, though it is strongly emphasised in most free trade agreements (FTAs). This policy brief invites developing countries to maintain their GP, considering that it can be an effective developmental tool, and presents some recommendations for Syrian stakeholders in particular.

The paper states that applying Government Procurement Agreement (GPA) or equal provisions would result in:

achieving more incorporation and integration within international markets
losing the ability to use preferential advantages granted to national agencies as a local policy tool
losing financial revenue resulted from government procurement that national agencies run, or saving the losses that the state bears in case the agencies are facing financial deficit
probable reduction in food security level in case of food products procurement, and slump in industrial security trend in case of industrial crops procurement

The author points that Syrian government intervenes obviously in the field of government procurement. Intervened sectors include wheat, cotton, tobacco and sugar.

Recommendations encompass:

when the negotiations for WTO accession take place, Syria had better to resist joining GPA as long as possible
if joining GPA is unavoidable, Syria had better to behave like Saudi Arabia and Oman (i.e. accept to be a GPA observer, and a promise to re-evaluate the situation later)
it is preferable not to object a FTA government procurement provision before examining and evaluating it sufficiently, yet the evaluation should cover both its social and economic impacts
in case of inevitable GPA accession, it is necessary to ask for technical aids and investment assistance in order to help moving from the domination of governmental agencies to the free markets and open competition

The impact of Syria’s accession to the WTO on agricultural sector

Babili M. (ed) — 11 Jun 2012 17:25:22 GMT

Syria has a sensitive agricultural sector which will be inevitably influenced by its accession to the WTO. This publication is the first study that examines the possible impacts of Syria’s accession to the WTO on its agricultural sector, focusing particularly on agricultural trade.

The paper reveals that Syria was one of the GATT’s establishing countries, but it withdrew due to political reasons. However, it submitted a request for WTO accession in 2001, and gained the “observer” position later, though the accession negotiations have not started yet.

Concerning agriculture, the document demonstrates the social importance of this sector in Syria, besides its significant economic contribution. Consequently, the state’s efforts have been concentrated on re-distributing agricultural support to serve the developmental policy and promote agricultural exports. Identically, Syria has been progressing towards gradual liberalisation of agricultural trade, avoiding the liberalisation of strategic crops.

Notable findings contain:

from an agricultural point of view, the best scenario for Syria’s accession to the WTO would be protecting some important commodities,while using harmonised formula to reduce tariffs of other commodities
these important commodities are wheat and meslin, barley,oil-cake and maize
on contrary, using linear formulas to reduce tariffs is not recommended at any case
some Arab countries would lose some of their market shares in Syria due to trade liberalisation, while Some EU states would gain extra markets for their products
cigarettes are the most sensitive commodity in terms of tariff changes
liberalising (but not zeroing) trade of cigarettes and banana, would not cause any custom revenue losses, and even it would bring in more custom revenues

Still, the authors stress that the tool used in the research doesn’t take into account the political relations among countries, but rather, it has a pure technical perspective.

Contemporary Middle East Global Politics and Regional Issues

K. Rahman — 10 Jun 2012 09:09:56 GMT

In the contemporary dynamics of Middle East, United States is the major global power that influences the internal and external affairs of the region and shapes the initiatives for peace or dynamics of war therein.

Supporting social accountability in the Middle East and North Africa: lessons learned from past political and economic transitions

J. Thindwa — 09 Jun 2012 07:52:32 GMT

Social accountability (SA) is an approach to governance that involves citizens and civil society organisations (CSOs) in public decision-making and in holding governments accountable for its actions. This note deems that SA is, in essence, an important feature of democratisation, and is therefore particularly relevant for countries in transition in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA).

The authors highlight that the three key elements of social accountability in political systems are transparency, accountability, and participation. The document clarifies that:

SA is increasingly recognised as a critical factor in improving development outcomes
SA is important especially with regard to the management of public resources
the transparent policy environment created by SA can lead to increased foreign investment
an SA approach could help reinforce MENA‘s political transition by making policies more relevant to the needs of citizens
this would reduce the risk of future political instability

Furthermore, the document presents six related key lessons learned from the experiences of three Asian countries:

active citizen participation in public affairs requires an enabling environment
government outreach to civil society is critical to building confidence and trust
proactive disclosure of information by the government about its plans during transitions helps manage expectations of citizens
it is important to invest in improving service delivery through partnership with civil society and users
engaging with a broader range of stakeholders during transitions increases the legitimacy of the new government and increases sustainability of reforms
bottom-up processes through decentralisation reforms and community-driven development enable citizen participation and improvement of services

The paper also figures that SA implementation in the Arab World to date points to obvious positive results in terms of transparency, democracy and service delivery.

Children and social protection in the Middle East and North Africa

P. Pereznieto — 06 Jun 2012 20:00:09 GMT

There are a number of interrelated factors involved in poverty and vulnerability in the MENA region. This project briefing reflects the conclusions of a study mapping social protection in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, with a particular focus on policies and programmes that impact children.

The paper notes that supporting children’s access to education is the most common child-specific area of social protection. Furthermore, programmes promoting the nutritional well-being of children under five are also common. On the other hand, the authors underline the following facts:

food insecurity and vulnerability to rising food prices are common in the MENA region, while demographic pressures and the resulting youth bulge are limiting young people’s work opportunities
the under-five mortality rate remains significantly high in the poorest countries, while primary school enrolment rates in these countries remains low
the socio-cultural acceptance of specific gender-discrimination practices in some countries contributes to furthering social vulnerabilities
food and commodity subsidies generally absorb the greatest share of social protection budgets

The document indicates that key challenges to social protection and child-sensitive social protection include political context (i.e. recent protests), financial barriers, monitoring and evaluation, fragmentation in provision and targeting. Identically, the paper suggests the following recommendations:

it is important to think about child-sensitive social protection beyond programmes that target children, so as to be better able to take advantage of existing opportunities
such opportunities might include linking cash transfer beneficiaries to complementary supportive programmes and basic social services
multilateral agencies should support governments to strengthen their capacity to design more tailored and effective programmes that reach the most vulnerable children
information sharing across MENA countries is essential and is to be enhanced by programmes monitoring and evaluation, which can help estimating their impacts, particularly on children

Youth in the Middle East and North Africa: demographic opportunity or challenge?

R. Assaad — 05 Jun 2012 21:01:35 GMT

The number of youth in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is projected to peak at 100 million by 2035 and to decline slowly thereafter. This policy brief gives an overview of demographic trends among youth and the implications of these trends for human and economic development in the MENA region.

The paper firstly warns that MENA’s unemployment rate is the highest among world’s regions, and particularly the largest gender gaps in unemployment rates among youth are found in MENA.

The paper demonstrates that:

the youth bulge poses opportunities as well as challenges for development
the demographic opportunity can be reaped when today’s youth reach their prime working ages
to reap the benefits, MENA countries need to adapt their economic, social, and political institutions to the changes brought by the unprecedented numbers of young people as they move into adulthood
moreover, educational systems need to accommodate the rapidly growing student population, and labour markets need to expand to provide additional jobs
furthermore, housing markets must meet the growing housing demand of couples attempting to marry, and health systems must adapt to the needs of young people

Likewise, the authors quote that MENA countries must adopt new development policies that realign their economies in three important ways:

re-inventing the private sector
integrating with the world economy
managing oil resources better

In addition, the report emphasises that MENA countries must redefine their “social contracts”— implicit agreements between governments and citizens.

The authors conclude that none can succeed in strengthening human capacity among youth without fundamental reforms and greater engagement of civil society. Nevertheless, every MENA government needs to map its pathway to reform in ways that are tailored to its country-specific conditions and desired outcomes.

“Corporate social responsibility” across Middle East and North Africa

M. Ararat — 01 Jun 2012 20:14:55 GMT

A vivid debate is taking place across the world questioning the social role of business and balance of power between institutions. This paper attempts to synthesise the reports prepared by various authors, who live and work in their homeland in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), on the notion of “corporate social responsibility” (CSR).

The paper clarifies that the drivers for CSR may be determined outside the system, such as CSR practices of multinational companies, regulations imposed upon by international agreements, work of NGOs, academic research etc.

The author finds that CSR, in the MENA context, is a generic notion that can fit different purposes in different contexts. Conclusions are that:

macroeconomic stability induces ethical behaviour; it establishes the moral authority of the governments and improves their law enforcement capability
economic development accompanied by opening up to international competition accelerates the convergence of business cultures may partially neutralise the local societal cultural characteristics unsupportive of CSR
in this sense, encouraging Muslim women to be active in social life as demanding customers will dramatically improve the role society plays in driving the business
in the same way, supporting the education of women in the MENA has been reported as one of the preferred themes of philanthropy in the region

Furthermore, the document points that it will take some time before the local societies will play a significant role in driving the CSR in the region. This change will involve a shift in values towards universal values, a process which will continue to be driven by democratisation and globalisation.

The Global Impact of Unrest in the Middle East

J. Bhutani — 01 Jun 2012 15:25:59 GMT

Social and Political unrest across the Middle East and North Africa has amplified uncertainty in global markets and set a new obstacle for the continuing global recovery in the form of sharply higher oil prices. This paper offers the perspectives of “Wellington Management” analysts on the short- and long-term consequences of the recent turmoil and resulting market volatility.

The authors underscore that the effects of political unrest go beyond regional and developed/developing market boundaries, and their expectations in the short term are that:

the economic impact of transition will be negative, with higher fiscal deficits and lower tourism and investment
there will be an impact on stock performance in emerging markets that reflects the ties that different countries and companies have to the areas in turmoil
the threat of disruption to energy production in the region will continue to exert pressure on energy prices, and across the emerging markets, elevated oil prices will complicate the battle against inflation
Middle Eastern government savings rates will fall and the cost of capital will go up globally as a result
in this context, the deep redistributive fiscal policies, implied by the coming political competition, will result in much lower government saving

However, the authors state that it is difficult to generalise about the outlook for the region as a whole, as each country faces a very specific set of circumstances. Yet, their views in the long term include:

political upheaval and regime change in the Middle East could cause a paradigmatic shift in the way energy resources are priced and supplied on a global basis
assuming that a country like Egypt transitions to a more open system, it will lead to new business formation and more integration and growth in the region as a whole

War, institutions, and social change in the Middle East

S. Heydemann — 30 May 2012 20:08:01 GMT

Considering the scope and scale of war making and war preparation in the Middle East, the rarity of research on war as a social and political process is puzzling. This paper is sought to strengthen connections between research on war as a social process and the study of political, social, and institutional change in the Middle East.

The document figures out the following findings:

in the Middle East, war making has been indirect, mediated, and deeply trans-nationalised
among the states that have been the most engaged participants in Middle East wars, the trans-nationalisation of war has been an explicit and conscious strategy of state elites
preparation for war has been funded by foreign military assistance or rents of one form or another
peace settlements have been negotiated and guaranteed by external powers

Conclusions are as follows:

in the Middle East, the intensity of war preparation has been only loosely correlated with levels of external threat and with the actual outbreak of war
similarly, the intensity of war preparation has not been tightly correlated with a capacity to engage in war making
seemingly, there has been a significant correlation between the sources of state revenue on one hand, and patterns of war preparation on the other
the phenomenon of high militarisation has been characteristic principally of the secularist, single-party regimes
the extraordinarily high level of war preparation has been binding the processes of state building and state institutional formation
however, military mobilisation has been probably strengthening the political institutions and the authority of political leaders in late-developing contexts

In addition, the paper concludes that war making in the Middle East generated conflicts regarding not only the nature of citizenship and political authority, but also regarding the definition of the society itself.

Food security and economic development in the Middle East and North Africa: current state and future perspectives

C. Breisinger — 27 May 2012 22:59:16 GMT

A rapidly changing world combined with mounting domestic challenges is prompting many Middle East and North African (MENA) countries to initiate economic and social reforms. This paper uses the concept of food security to identify the region’s challenges along four major themes: economic growth and incomes, trade and infrastructure, agriculture and water, and health and education.

The authors figure that taking immediate action regarding the persistent challenges in the region is more urgent in light of the recent, global food, fuel, and financial crisis and projected severe impacts of climate change.

The paper states that fostering development and achieving food security will require:

economic growth and diversification
breaking the strong vulnerability to international food price volatility
managing climate change adaptation effectively
transforming social policies to target the poor
empowering women to play a more active role in the society

The paper suggests utilising successful countries’ experiences and concludes with a list of priority research areas to identify key actions to be taken on regional, national and sub-national levels:

analysing returns to different types of investment in both agriculture and non-agriculture can help identify the allocation of resources in terms of growth, food security, and poverty reduction
research on emergency response to crises and natural disasters in fragile states will be important for MENA countries, in many of which flooding and other disasters have become more frequent recently
research can help find ways to effectively deal with climate change risks in the region, and can also identify the right mix of adaptation and migration strategies
research can help find ways to improve water management, as well as evaluate and design programs to overcome nutrition deficiencies
research can help assess the impacts of trade agreements on food security and poverty

The state of Arab cities 2012: challenges of urban transition

25 May 2012 09:06:57 GMT

This regional report by the United Nations Human Settlements Programme (UN-HABITAT) highlights that, although urban slums are decreasing and urban innovations are being introduced, the Arab region still faces major challenges, including high youth unemployment rates and climate change. The report argues that climate change can increase competition over scarce resources, decrease food security, increase poverty and social instability, and accelerate environmental migration and militarisation over natural resources in the area.

The food crises and political instability in North Africa and the Middle East

M. Lagi — 08 May 2012 22:22:42 GMT

It is noticeable that despite the many possible contributing factors, the timing of violent protests in North Africa and the Middle East in 2011 as well as earlier riots in 2008 coincides with large peaks in global food prices. This paper emphasises that riots and food prices are closely linked, identifying a specific food price threshold above which protests become likely.

The authors find that:

conditions of widespread threat to security are particularly present when food is inaccessible to the population at large
in this case, the underlying reason for support of the system is eliminated, and at the same time, sense of “there is nothing to lose" prevails
the loss of support occurs even if the political system is not directly responsible for the food security failure, as is the case if the primary responsibility lies in the global food supply system

Conclusions are as follows:

social unrest may reflect a variety of factors such as poverty, unemployment, and social injustice
protests may reflect not only long-standing political failings of governments, but also the sudden desperate straits of vulnerable populations
the analysis of the link between global food prices and social unrest indicates that it is possible to build mathematical models of global economic and social crises
on the whole, it is projected that within just a few years the trend of prices will reach the threshold, which points to a danger of spreading global social disruption
avoiding the anticipated global food crises and associated social unrest requires rapid and concerted action

Social inequalities, regional disparities and health inequity in North African countries.

08 May 2012 09:06:21 GMT

During the last decades, North African decision makers have endeavoured to improve social and economic conditions of their populations. Globally, health, education and living standard in general have substantially improved in average. However, North African countries have still a long way to go to reduce social inequalities and health inequity at different levels: rural-urban, advantaged-marginalised regions and cities, between groups of different level of income and wealth. The challenge for the next decade is not only to improve economic, social and health conditions in average but also and mainly to reduce avoidable inequalities in parallel.

Gender in the Middle East and North Africa: progress and remaining challenges

T Vishwanath — 06 May 2012 09:06:31 GMT

The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region has made impressive strides in reducing gender gaps in human development. The ratio of girls to boys in primary and secondary education is 0.96, women in the region are more likely than men to attend university, maternal mortality is around 200 deaths per 100,000 live births (compared to a world average of 400 deaths), and fertility rates have decreased in the past decade. Although gender gaps in school completion rates still exist in some MENA countries, most countries are well on their way to achieving gender parity in key human development indicators.

AWID Brief 11: Women’s economic empowerment in the Arab region: How chronic development challenges and the global crises triggered people’s revolutions

K Mohamadieh — 26 Apr 2012 09:14:25 GMT

This brief provides an analysis on how the global crises has contributed to exacerbating an already deteriorated context in the Arab region which is marked by political repression, lack of democracy, economic and social marginalisation, and human rights violations. Within this context, this brief highlights the gender gaps and employment disparities in Arab countries, and it examines how chronic development challenges and the global crises triggered people’s revolutions with women at the centre of the revolutions and uprisings witnessed in the Arab region since the end of 2010.

Women's views from the frontline

19 Apr 2012 09:07:21 GMT

The Huairou Commission initiated the action-research ‘Women’s Views from the Frontline’ to complement ‘Views from the Frontline’ to ensure that the voices of grassroots women are included in the civil society assessment of the local implementation of the Hyogo Framework of Action and to draw attention to grassroots women as key stakeholders in the effective implementation of the HFA. The action research engaged 23 grassroots women focused organizations in disaster prone communities from 13 countries, who are part of the Huairou Commission’s Global Campaign on Community Resilience, in Latin America, the Caribbean, Asia, Africa and the MENA region. ...Huairou member groups designed the action- research as an opportunity to educate a large constituency of grassroots women on HFA and support women to explore how they could utilize this policy tool to advance grassroots women’s efforts to reduce community vulnerability to disaster.

2010-2011 Annual Performance Report of UNDP supported GEF financed projects

17 Apr 2012 09:08:54 GMT

The Global Environment Facility (GEF) and the UN Development Programme (UNDP) have published this annual report on joint projects financed during 2011 on ecosystems and biodiversity preservation, green development strategies, and sustainable use of water and ocean resources, among other topics. The GEF financed and supported 323 UNDP projects in 2011. These projects focused on preserving natural ecosystems and biodiversity, sustainable infrastructure development, low-emission development strategies, climate change adaptation, water and oceans, and mitigating the effects of chemicals in the environment. The report also presents projects results regionally, with sections on: Africa; Arab States; Asia and the Pacific; Europe and CIS; and Latin America and the Caribbean.