EF Hutton

Real Unemployment Leaps to 17.5 Percent (Explanation)

rtdemarco@gmail.com (Bob DeMarco) — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 18:56:00 +0000

The U-6 (Table A-12: Alternative measures of labor under utilization) measures the real rate of unemployment in the United States.

Most news organizations report the more popular U.S. Department of Labor: Civilian Unemployment Rate. If you read the report today you learned that unemployment is 10.2 percent for September.

You would also have noticed the real rate of unemployment is 17.5 percent versus 11.1 percent in September 2008.

Real Unemployment U-6 -- 17.5%

There are other groups of unemployed that are not counted in the more popular employment report. The Bureau of Labor Statistics U-6 report includes the unemployed, and those that have thrown in the towel.

The U-6 report includes:

Total unemployed
plus all marginally attached workers
plus total employed part time for economic reasons

In other words,

marginally attached workers are persons who currently are neither working nor looking for work, but indicate that they want and are available for a job, and have looked for work sometime in the recent past.
Discouraged workers, a subset of the marginally attached, have given a job-market related reason for not looking currently for a job.

The U-6 report counts everyone that is unemployed--officially and unofficially.
Here are some other statistics that you might find disconcerting.

About 2.4 million persons were marginally attached to the labor force in October,
reflecting an increase of 736,000 from a year earlier. (The data are not sea-
sonally adjusted.) These individuals were not in the labor force, wanted and
were available for work, and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months.
They were not counted as unemployed because they had not searched for work in
the 4 weeks preceding the survey.
Among the marginally attached, there were 808,000 discouraged workers in October,
up from 484,000 a year earlier. (The data are not seasonally adjusted.) Dis-
couraged workers are persons not currently looking for work because they believe
no jobs are available for them. The other 1.6 million persons marginally attached
to the labor force in October had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding
the survey for reasons such as school attendance or family responsibilities.
The average workweek for production and nonsupervisory workers on private nonfarm
payrolls was unchanged at 33.0 hours in October. The manufacturing workweek rose
by 0.1 hour to 40.0 hours, and factory overtime increased by 0.2 hour over the
month.
The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks and over) was
little changed over the month at 5.6 million. In October, 35.6 percent of
unemployed persons were jobless for 27 weeks or more.
The civilian labor force participation rate was little changed over the month
at 65.1 percent. The employment-population ratio continued to decline in
October, falling to 58.5 percent.

To view this report and the numbers go here.

All of the statistics in this article were sourced from the Department of Labor--Bureau of Labor Statistics.

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Original content by Bob DeMarco, All American Investor

Unemployment Soars to 10.2 Percent (Details)

rtdemarco@gmail.com (Bob DeMarco) — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 14:26:00 +0000

Job losses have averaged 188,000 over the past 3 months.

The employment-population ratio continued to decline in October, falling to 58.5 percent.

Since December 2007, payroll employment has fallen by 7.3 million.

Household Survey Data

In October, the number of unemployed persons increased by 558,000 to 15.7 million. The
unemployment rate rose by 0.4 percentage point to 10.2 percent, the highest rate since April 1983.

Since the start of the recession in December 2007, the number of unemployed persons has risen by 8.2 million, and the unemployment rate has grown by 5.3 percentage points. (See table A-1.)
Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rates for adult men (10.7 percent) and whites
(9.5 percent) rose in October. The jobless rates for adult women (8.1 percent), teenagers (27.6 percent), blacks (15.7 percent), and Hispanics (13.1 percent) were little changed over the month. The unemployment rate for Asians was 7.5 percent, not seasonally adjusted. (See tables A-1, A-2, and A-3.)

The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks and over) was little changed over
the month at 5.6 million. In October, 35.6 percent of unemployed persons were jobless for 27 weeks or more. (See table A-9.)

The civilian labor force participation rate was little changed over the month at 65.1 percent.

The employment-population ratio continued to decline in October, falling to 58.5 percent. (See table A-1.)

The number of persons working part time for economic reasons (sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers) was little changed in October at 9.3 million. These individuals were working parttime because their hours had been cut back or because they were unable to find a full-time job. (See table A-5.)

About 2.4 million persons were marginally attached to the labor force in October, reflecting an
increase of 736,000 from a year earlier. (The data are not seasonally adjusted.) These individuals were not in the labor force, wanted and were available for work, and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months. They were not counted as unemployed because they had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey. (See table A-13.)

Among the marginally attached, there were 808,000 discouraged workers in October, up from 484,000 a year earlier. (The data are not seasonally adjusted.) Discouraged workers are persons not currently looking for work because they believe no jobs are available for them. The other 1.6 million persons marginally attached to the labor force in October had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey for reasons such as school attendance or family responsibilities.

Establishment Survey Data

Total nonfarm payroll employment declined by 190,000 in October. In the most recent 3 months, job losses have averaged 188,000 per month, compared with losses averaging 357,000 during the prior 3 months. In contrast, losses averaged 645,000 per month from November 2008 to April 2009.

Since December 2007, payroll employment has fallen by 7.3 million. (See table B-1.)

Construction employment decreased by 62,000 in October. Monthly job losses have averaged 67,000 during the most recent 6 months, compared with an average decline of 117,000 during the prior 6 months. October job losses were concentrated in nonresidential specialty trade contractors (-30,000) and in heavy construction (-14,000). Since December 2007, employment in construction has fallen by 1.6 million.

Manufacturing continued to shed jobs (-61,000) in October, with losses in both durable and nondurable goods production. Over the past 4 months, job losses in manufacturing have averaged 51,000 per month, compared with an average monthly loss of 161,000 from October 2008 through June 2009.

Manufacturing employment has fallen by 2.1 million since December 2007.

Retail trade lost 40,000 jobs in October. Employment declines were concentrated in sporting goods, hobby, book, and music stores (-16,000) and in department stores (-11,000). Employment in transportation and warehousing decreased by 18,000 in October.

Health care employment continued to increase in October (29,000). Since the start of the recession, health care has added 597,000 jobs.

Temporary help services has added 44,000 jobs since July, including 34,000 in October.

From January 2008 through July 2009, temporary help services had lost an average of 44,000 jobs per month.

The average workweek for production and nonsupervisory workers on private nonfarm payrolls was
unchanged at 33.0 hours in October. The manufacturing workweek rose by 0.1 hour to 40.0 hours, and factory overtime increased by 0.2 hour over the month. (See table B-2.)

In October, average hourly earnings of production and nonsupervisory workers on private nonfarm
payrolls rose by 5 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $18.72. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have risen by 2.4 percent, while average weekly earnings have risen by only 0.9 percent due to declines in the average workweek. (See table B-3.)

The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for August was rerevised from -201,000 to -154,000, and the change for September was revised from -263,000 to -219,000.

THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION – OCTOBER 2009, PDF, 29 pages.

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60 Minutes Medicare Fraud A $60 Billion Crime (Video, Text Transcript)

rtdemarco@gmail.com (Bob DeMarco) — Mon, 26 Oct 2009 15:46:00 +0000

60 Minutes Medicare Fraud A $60 Billion Crime is sure to make taxpayers irate.

You might also find these articles of interest.

A Real Solution to the Health Care Crisis

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World Health Care Spending and Performance Ranking by Country (Table)

The price of excess: Identifying waste in healthcare spending

An Agenda for Change: Improving Quality and Curbing Health Care Spending: Opportunities for the Congress and the Obama Administration

Medicare Fraud: A $60 Billion Crime
A.G. Holder Tells 60 Minutes More Oversight Is Needed; Scammer Explains How Easy It Is To Steal Millions

Of all the problems facing the United States right now, none are more important than health care.

President Obama says rising costs are driving huge federal budget deficits that imperil our future, and that there is enough waste and fraud in the system to pay for health care reform if it was eliminated.

At the center of both issues is Medicare, the government insurance program that provides health care to 46 million elderly and disabled Americans. But it also provides a rich and steady income stream for criminals who are constantly finding new ways to steal a sizable chunk of the half trillion dollars that are paid out each year in Medicare benefits.

In fact, Medicare fraud - estimated now to total about $60 billion a year - has become one of, if not the most profitable, crimes in America.

This story may raise your blood pressure, along with some troubling questions about our government's ability to manage a medical bureaucracy.

If you want to find Medicare fraud, the first place you should look is South Florida, where 60 Minutes and correspondent Steve Kroft were told it has pushed aside cocaine as the major criminal enterprise.

It's a quiet crime - there are no sirens or gunfire. The only victims are the American taxpayers, and they don't even know they are being ripped off.

FBI Special Agent Brian Waterman, who 60 Minutes rode with for several days, told us the only visible evidence of the crimes are the thousands of tiny clinics and pharmacies that dot the low-rent strip malls.

You don't even know they're there because there's never anyone inside. No doctors, no nurses and no patients.

"This office number should be manned and answered 24 hours a day," Waterman explained, standing outside one of those small, unstaffed businesses.

The tiny medical supply company billed Medicare almost $2 million in July and a half million dollars while 60 Minutes was there in August, but we never found anybody inside, and our phone calls were never returned.

Sometimes, they don't even have offices: we went looking for a pharmacy at 7511 NW. 73rd Street that billed Medicare $300,000 in charges. It turned out to be in the middle of a public warehouse storage area.

"They've already told us that there's no offices here," Waterman told Kroft. "There are no businesses here. In fact they are not even allowed to have a business here."

Waterman is the senior agent in the Miami office in charge of Medicare fraud. And Kirk Ogrosky, a top Justice Department prosecutor, oversees half a dozen Medicare fraud strike forces that have been set up across the country.

The office Kroft visited operates out of a warehouse at a secret location in South Florida and includes investigators from the FBI, Health and Human Services, and the IRS.

"There's a healthcare fraud industry where people do nothing but recruit patients, get patient lists, find doctors, look on the Internet, find different scams. There are entire groups and entire organizations of people that are dedicated to nothing but committing fraud, finding a better way to steal from Medicare," Waterman explained.

"Is the Medicare fraud business bigger than the drug business in Miami now?" Kroft asked.

"I think it's way bigger," Ogrosky said.

Asked what changed, Ogrosky told Kroft, "The criminals changed."

"Sophistication," Waterman added.

"They've figured out that rather than stealing $100,000 or $200,000, they can steal $100 million. We have seen cases in the last six, eight months that involve a couple of guys that if they weren't stealing from Medicare might be stealing your car," Ogrosky explained.

"You know, we were the king of the drugs in the '80s. We're king of healthcare fraud in the '90s and the 2000's," Waterman added, speaking about South Florida.

But it's not just Miami: in March, the FBI arrested 53 people in Detroit, including a number of doctors, and charged them with billing Medicare more than $50 million for unnecessary medical procedures.

And in Los Angeles, the City of Angels Medical Center recruited homeless people off the street to fill their empty beds, offering them cash and drugs plus clean sheets and three square meals a day, while billing Medicare tens of millions of dollars for their stay.

"We have to understand this is a major fraud area," United States Attorney General Eric Holder told Kroft.

Holder is taking a crime that has been in the backwaters of law enforcement and made it a top priority at the Justice Department.

"Why do you think it's been so attractive for the criminals?" Kroft asked.

"Because I think it's been pretty easy. I think that they have found a way in which they have been able to get pretty substantial amounts of money with not a huge amount of effort and at least until now, without the possibility of great detection," Holder explained.

The attorney general agreed that the risks are much lower. "You'll see some of these people and they'll say 'You know there is not a chance that you are going to have some other drug dealer shooting at you.' The chances of being incarcerated were lower, the amount of time you would spend in jail was smaller. All of which is different now."

"You're wakin' up every day makin' $20,000, $30,000, $40,000. Every day, almost literally. And you're like 'Wow I just won the lottery,'" a man we'll call "Tony" told Kroft.

Tony is not his real name. Before he was ratted out by a friend and brought down by the FBI, he was making Wall Street money running a string of phony medical supply companies out of a building that were theoretically providing wheel chairs and other expensive equipment to Medicare patients.

He told Kroft he stole about $20 million from Medicare. He told Kroft it was "real easy."

"And you're not exactly a criminal mastermind?" Kroft asked.

"No. No," Tony said. "No, not really. It's more like common sense."

Asked if he actually ever sold any medical equipment, Tony said, "No. Just have somebody in an office answering the phone, like we're open for business. And wake up in the morning, see how much, check your bank account and see how much money you made today."

He told Kroft he didn't have any medical equipment or real clients - all of it was fake.

"And you would just fill out some invoices and some forms and send 'em to Medicare?" Kroft asked.

"That's it. In 15 to 30 days you'll have a direct deposit in your bank account. I mean it was ridiculous. It's more like taking candy from a baby," Tony said.

According to the FBI, all you have to do to get into this business is rent a cheap storefront office, find or create a front man to get an occupational license, bribe a doctor or forge a prescription pad, and obtain the names and ID numbers of legitimate Medicare patients you can bill the phony charges to.

"There's a whole industry of people out there that do nothing but provide patients," Waterman told Kroft.

Asked what he means by "provide patients," Waterman said, "I'm just talking about lists of patients, people's names, Social Security numbers, addresses, and date of birth. With those four things, you can bill for a patient."

Asked where Tony got his fictitious customers, he told Kroft, "They'll be people that would sell you a list of maybe $10 per patient. And I'll buy 1,000, 10,000 maybe at a time. And then you just fill in the patient's name and you send it. And then I used the same patients with the same company and then the next company I used the same patients and I kept using them, and they'll pay for the same patient every time."

Once the crooked companies get hold of the patient lists, usually stolen from doctors' offices or hospitals, they begin running up all sorts of outlandish charges and submit them to Medicare for payment, knowing full well that the agency is required by law to pay the claims within 15 to 30 days, and that it has only enough auditors to check a tiny fraction of the charges to see if they are legitimate.

If they're not, it's usually people like 76-year-old Clara Mahoney who catch them.

She began to notice all sorts of crazy things turning up on her quarterly Medicare statements back in 2003 - things that Medicare paid for on her behalf that she had never ordered, never wanted and never received.

"Air mattresses, a wheel chair, urine bag for my leg," Mahoney said, listing some of the unwanted items Medicare was charged for on her behalf. "It was getting so I didn't wanna open up the explanation of benefits because you know, it's like, 'Oh, no. Not again.'"

Mahoney, who says she hasn't been sick in 30 years, began calling Medicare to tell them that someone was ripping them off. But the only responses she received were letters saying that someone was looking into it. The bogus charges are still turning up on her statements.

"And I continued to report and I kept saying, 'Can't you flag my account? You know, I'm not getting any equipment or supplies. Nothing,'" she told Kroft.

They have been "looking" into Mahoney's issue for six years.

Once criminals like Tony get their hands on usable patient numbers, they try and charge Medicare for the most expensive equipment possible, which requires having access to a list of Medicare codes.

Asked what some of the best codes were, Tony told Kroft, "Artificial limbs, electric arms, electric wheelchairs. I mean, a regular patient, you can put them on two artificial legs and an artificial arm and they'll pay for it."

And that's what happened to former Federal Judge Ed Davis. He was one of those patients who started getting charges on his Medicare statement for artificial limbs.

"And I looked at it and it had charges for prosthesis. And I knew I had my arms," Judge Davis explained.

Though he has two healthy arms, his statement showed Medicare had been billed for a left and a right arm.

"Didn't anybody in Medicare check to see if any of these charges were valid?" Kroft asked Tony.

"Sometimes they'll do it. But by the time they did it, it was too late," Tony said. "We've already made $300,000, $400,000, $500,000 on it. And then we will never send 'em nothing back. And then at 30 days they'll send an inspector to your office. And by that time…it's all closed down."

They would pay first and send an auditor later.

"There's somethin' I don't understand. I mean, you're saying essentially people just fill out the phony paperwork, they send a bill to Medicare and they pay it," Kroft remarked to Brian Waterman.

"That's why you have companies that can run for 60, 90 days, and bill for ridiculous things. Because there are very few checks and balances to even determine whether these things a, were medically necessary, b, were ever given, or c, even physically possible for a patient with the kind of conditions they have," Waterman explained.

The FBI calls it "pay and chase." And riding around with them we saw plenty of examples. One tiny pharmacy in a Hialeah strip mall went from billing Medicare $13,000 in May to billing nearly a million dollars a month later.

The small, now shut-down office billed $800,000 in the month if June.

By the time we were there in August, the FBI says the owners had already burned the company, shut it down and moved on to another operation.

"We were here last week. There was stuff on the shelves. The business still had a name on it. You can still see from where the tape is that someone just took this off," Waterman told Kroft, standing outside the empty storefront.

To understand just how preposterous all of this is, the FBI says the tiny little store collected six times more money from Medicare in June than the largest Walgreen Pharmacy in the state of Florida.

It's quite an achievement, since neither the FBI nor the proprietor of the bingo parlor next door ever saw a customer coming or going.

"I've never seen people, only twice," the Bingo hall proprietor told Kroft. "No customers. It's always been locked."

We obviously had a few questions to ask the people at Medicare and requested an interview with the person in charge of preventing fraud. That turned out to be Kim Brandt, Medicare's director of program integrity.

"We went around with an FBI agent and a woman from Health and Human Services. They took us to storefront, billing three or four hundred thousand dollars a month. And they were completely empty. Nobody there. I mean, how do they get away with that?" Kroft asked.

"We're as frustrated by that as the law enforcement officials that you went out with. And in fact, our primary focus over the past years has been to tighten our enrollment standards to make it so it's much harder for people like that to be able to get in the program, and to be able to commit that kind of fraud," Brandt said.

"Look, I'm sure that you're aware of these problems. But it doesn't seem like you're doing a very good job. I don't mean you personally, but I mean, the government. This is still like a huge problem, and getting worse, right?" Kroft asked.

"Well, it really does come down to the size and scope of the Medicare program, and the resources that are dedicated to oversight and anti fraud work. One of our biggest challenges has been that we have a program that pays out over a billion claims a year, over $430 billion, and our oversight budget has been extremely limited," Brandt said.

About that there is little dispute: Medicare has just three field inspectors in all of South Florida to check up on thousands of questionable medical equipment companies.

"Clearly more auditing needs to be done and it needs to be done in real time," Attorney General Eric Holder said.

Asked why it has taken Medicare so long to figure out they were being scammed, Holder told Kroft, "I think lack of resources probably. And then I think people I don't think necessarily thought that something as well intentioned as Medicare and Medicaid would necessarily attract fraudsters. But I think we have to understand that it certainly has."

The Obama administration is providing Medicare with an additional $200 million to fight fraud as part of its stimulus package, and billions of dollars to computerize medical records and upgrade networks, which should help Medicare catch more phony charges.

But Tony, who has just begun serving his 12 year prison sentence, says there's no shortage of people in Miami waiting to take his place.

Asked how many people in Miami were doing this, Tony said, "I'd say at least 2,000 people. At least 2,000, 3,000 companies."

He estimated that less than five percent of these companies were legitimate.

"If went to the phone book and looked under medical equipment suppliers, 95 percent of the companies would be phony?" Kroft asked.

"Yes, sir," Tony replied.

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Producer Price Index (PPI) 1020

rtdemarco@gmail.com (Bob DeMarco) — Tue, 20 Oct 2009 14:11:00 +0000

The Producer Price Index for Finished Goods declined 0.6 percent in September, seasonally adjusted, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today.

This decrease followed a 1.7-percent rise in August and a 0.9-percent decline in July.

In September, at the earlier stages of processing, prices received by manufacturers of intermediate goods moved up 0.2 percent, and the crude goods index fell 2.1 percent.

Finished goods

In September, over ninety percent of the finished goods decrease was the result of lower energy prices, which moved down 2.4 percent. The indexes for finished goods less foods and energy and for finished consumer foods also contributed to the decline in finished goods prices, both edging down 0.1 percent.

Finished energy: The index for finished energy goods fell 2.4 percent in September compared with an 8.0-percent surge a month earlier. Almost eighty percent of the decrease can be attributed to gasoline prices, which moved down 5.4 percent. Falling prices for home heating oil and residential natural gas also contributed to the decline in the finished energy goods index.

Finished core: Prices for finished goods less foods and energy edged down 0.1 percent in September following a 0.2-percent increase in August. Leading the decline, the index for light motor trucks moved down 1.4 percent. Lower prices for pet food also impacted the finished core index.

Finished foods:

Prices for finished consumer foods inched down 0.1 percent in September after rising
0.4 percent in August. The index for eggs for fresh use, which declined 9.8 percent, led the decrease in finished consumer food prices.

Intermediate goods

The Producer Price Index for Intermediate Materials, Supplies, and Components moved up 0.2 percent in September, its second consecutive monthly increase. This advance can be attributed to prices for intermediate materials less foods and energy, which rose 0.9 percent. By contrast, the index for intermediate energy goods fell 2.1 percent, and prices for intermediate foods and feeds declined 0.5 percent. On a 12-month basis, the intermediate goods index fell 11.7 percent in September. This was the second consecutive month of slowing year-over-year declines after a record 15.1-percent drop for the 12-months ended July 2009.

Intermediate core: Prices for intermediate materials less foods and energy climbed 0.9 percent in September, their fourth consecutive monthly increase. Accounting for about a quarter of the September advance, the index for primary basic organic chemicals rose 8.1 percent. Higher prices for hot rolled steel sheet and strip and for primary nonferrous metals also were factors in the intermediate core increase.

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Industrial Production -- Five Year Chart

rtdemarco@gmail.com (Bob DeMarco) — Sat, 17 Oct 2009 20:04:00 +0000

Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization, Monthly

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St. Louis Federal Reserve Source Base (Chart)

rtdemarco@gmail.com (Bob DeMarco) — Sat, 17 Oct 2009 15:42:00 +0000

Wonder why gold is trading up? Here is one good reason.

Sum of currency in circulation,
Reserve balances with Federal Reserve Banks,
and service-related adjustments to compensate for float.

Calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

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Reserve Bank Liquidity Still Very High

rtdemarco@gmail.com (Bob DeMarco) — Sat, 17 Oct 2009 13:21:00 +0000

This is the truest measure of Fed liquidity. While Reserve Bank credit has peaked it still remains high and well above trend. This series needs to be watched closely. It is likely that the market will experience a sharp correction when the Fed starts to take out this over abundance of liquidity.

Is the market strong, or is what we are seeing being caused by this aggressive liquidity injection on the part of the Fed. In other words, are we seeing a real case of excessive exuberance?

Reserve Bank credit is the sum of securities held outright, repurchase agreements, term auction credit, other loans, net portfolio holdings of Commercial Paper Funding Facility LLC, net portfolio holdings of LLCs funded through the Money Market Investor Funding Facility, net portfolio holdings of Maiden Lane LLC, net portfolio holdings of Maiden Lane II LLC, net portfolio holdings of Maiden Lane III LLC, float, central bank liquidity swaps, and other Federal Reserve assets.

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Consumer Price Index (CPI) September

rtdemarco@gmail.com (Bob DeMarco) — Thu, 15 Oct 2009 16:32:00 +0000

On a seasonally adjusted basis, the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.2 percent in September, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. The increase was less than the 0.4percent rise in August. The index has decreased 1.3 percent over the last 12 months on a not seasonally adjusted basis.

Consumer Price Index Data for September 2009

After rising 0.1 percent in August, the food index declined 0.1 percent in September.
The energy index rose 0.6 percent in September after increasing 4.6 percent in August.
The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.2 percent in September after increasing 0.1 percent in both July and August.

To read the full release go here.

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Real Average Weekly Earnings Fall

rtdemarco@gmail.com (Bob DeMarco) — Thu, 15 Oct 2009 14:18:00 +0000

Real average hourly earnings fell 0.1 percent from August to September, seasonally adjusted, the Bureauof Labor Statistics reported today.

This decline stemmed from the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W), up by 0.2 percent, outpacing 0.1 percent growth in average hourly earnings for production and nonsupervisory workers.

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How the Federal Reserve Can Avoid the Next Bubble

rtdemarco@gmail.com (Bob DeMarco) — Tue, 06 Oct 2009 20:20:00 +0000

The central bank needs to watch asset prices and raise rates quickly when it decides the time is right.

From the Wall Street Journal

By IAN BREMMER AND NOURIEL ROUBINI

Ben Bernanke and the Federal Reserve face a number of very difficult challenges in the years ahead. They include:

• Resisting pressure to monetize deficits, which would eventually cause high inflation.

• Implementing an exit strategy from the massive monetary easing of the past year.

• Maintaining the Fed's independence, which has been compromised by the direct and indirect bailout of financial institutions and congressional attempts to micromanage the central bank.

• Properly calculating asset prices and the risk of asset bubbles according to the Taylor rule, an important guideline central banks use to set interest rates.

• Supervising and regulating the financial system more effectively, particularly in the role of "systemic risk" regulator.

The first two tasks are closely related. In order to prevent a persistent monetization of deficits that would lead to inflation, the Fed must implement an exit strategy from the unconventional monetary easing that began in late 2008. If the fiscal and monetary stimulus is taken away too soon, there is the risk of relapsing into deflation. If it is taken away too late, we may eventually face a fiscal crisis and an inflationary recession, or stagflation.

The Fed does not control fiscal policy. But to avoid a game of chicken wherein loose fiscal policy forces the Fed to monetize deficits to prevent a spike in bond yields, the Fed needs to pre-emptively state it won't be buying more Treasury bills.

As for the exit from monetary easing, the Fed must learn from the fateful mistake it made after the 2001 recession. Then, the central bank cut the federal-funds rate too much and kept it too low for too long. It also moved far too slowly when the normalization occurred—in small increments of 0.25% from summer 2004 until the summer of 2006, when it peaked at 5.25%. Normalization took two full years. It was in that period of slow normalization that the housing, mortgage and credit bubbles spiraled out of control. The lesson learned: When you normalize, move rapidly, or prepare for another dangerous bubble.

Of course, this is easier said than done. From 2002 to 2006, the Fed moved slowly because the recovery appeared anemic and because of significant deflationary pressures. This time around, the recession is more severe—unemployment is at 9.8% and is expected to peak above 10%, and we are experiencing actual deflation. Therefore, the incentive not to exit too soon will be greater and the risk of creating another bubble is greater. Indeed, the sharp increase in the stock market and commodities, and narrowing of credit spreads since March, are partly due to a wall of global liquidity chasing assets and already causing asset inflation.

If the conflict between economic growth and financial stability requires that monetary policy remain loose, then it is critical that the supervisors and regulators of the banking sector move aggressively to prevent another bubble from emerging. Thus they should quickly adopt the regulatory reforms agreed to by the G-20—including a new insolvency regime for financial institutions deemed "too big to fail," a serious approach to limiting "systemic risk," and appropriate rules governing incentives and compensation for bankers and traders.

It won't be easy to define systemic regulation and too-big-to-fail. There is a significant risk that doing so will provide an implicit guarantee for large and complex financial institutions. There is also a longer-term risk that actions taken by congressional and regulatory agencies will distort global financial markets. Western financial institutions now depend heavily on state financial backing, and several governments have tweaked rules and regulations to support the large financial institutions that are now at least partially taxpayer-owned. Further, governments could increasingly require domestic financial institutions to lend more at home, which will curtail their foreign operations. Creating a system of effective financial regulation—while resisting the impulse to favor domestic institutions—will be a real challenge for most countries, including the U.S.

Over time, once the fed-funds rate is normalized, incorporating asset prices into monetary policy making is also necessary to ensure financial stability. While it is correct that the fed-funds rates may not be the most effective instrument at controlling asset and credit bubbles, excessively cheap money is always a source of such bubbles. So faster normalization of the fed-funds rate will eventually be important.

The Fed's involvement in quasi-fiscal operations creates other challenges. As long as the Fed remains involved in maintaining financial stability and in preventing other episodes of systemic risk, it will be hard to eliminate the perception that the Fed will be involved as a lender of last resort for too-big-to-fail firms. So far, this Pandora's Box remains open.

The way to prevent future moral-hazard distortions is to create a regulatory regime where too-big-to-fail institutions have much higher capital requirements: a greater liquidity buffer, lower leverage, and lower involvement in risky and illiquid investments if they are depository banks. They should be supervised internationally and must be able to be closed down in an orderly fashion should failure loom.

The Fed is currently resisting a Treasury-led effort to review how it is organized out of concern it might forfeit its independence. Yet the governance structure of the New York and other regional Federal Reserve banks left them effectively controlled by large financial institutions last year, so such a review is necessary. While congressional interference in the Fed's jurisdiction is a danger, the recent quasi-fiscal activities of the Fed bear a review.

The Fed also needs a greater regulatory backbone. The Fed had the power to regulate mortgage markets but failed to use this power out of a misplaced deference to laissez-faire attitudes and Wall Street. Regulating mortgage markets requires a careful balance: short-term regulatory forbearance to avoid a greater credit crunch, along with medium-term countercyclical supervisory actions in order to prevent the emergence of further asset and credit bubbles.

Establishing financial stability—in addition to price stability and growth—is the essential role of the central bank. Achieving this goal in a way that avoids moral-hazard distortions, as with the too-big-to-fail finance institutions, and prevents another bubble in the next years will surely be one of the greatest challenges ever faced by the Fed.

Mr. Bremmer, president of Eurasia Group, is co-author of the "The Fat Tail: The Power of Political Knowledge for Strategic Investing" (Oxford University Press, 2009). Mr. Roubini is a professor of economics at New York University's Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Monitor.

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Jobless 27 Weeks or Longer Jumps to 5.4 Million

rtdemarco@gmail.com (Bob DeMarco) — Fri, 02 Oct 2009 14:18:00 +0000

15.1 million Americans are now out of work. Or if you look at real unemployment-- 17 million.

One of the scariest statistics is the number of people unemployed 27 weeks or longer -- now 5.4 million. This number soared by 450,000 in the last month.

At 27 weeks, people start losing their unemployment benefits. Then what?

This number is likely to rise by another million plus by the end of the year?

This does not bode well for the economy or the the Christmas retail sales season.

Sources of Information

Real Unemployment Jumps to 17.0 Percent (Explanation)

Bureau of Labor Statistics -- Employment Situation news release

Table 12 in the Bureau of Labor Statistics

Commissioner's Statement on the Employment Situation

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Real Unemployment Jumps to 17.0 Percent in September (Details, Breakdown))

rtdemarco@gmail.com (Bob DeMarco) — Fri, 02 Oct 2009 13:23:00 +0000

Few people are familiar with the U-6 report that is issued by the United States Department of Labor-- Bureau of Labor Statistics. The U-6 (Table A-12: Alternative measures of labor under utilization) measures the real rate of unemployment in the United States.

Most news organizations report the more popular U.S. Department of Labor: Civilian Unemployment Rate. If you read the report today you learned that unemployment is 9.8 percent for September.

You would also have noticed the real rate of unemployment is 17.0 percent versus 10.6 percent in September 2008.

To view this report and the numbers go here.

Real Unemployment U-6 -- 17.0%

There are other groups of unemployed that are not counted in the more popular employment report. The Bureau of Labor Statistics U-6 report includes the unemployed, and those that have thrown in the towel.

The U-6 report includes:

Total unemployed
plus all marginally attached workers
plus total employed part time for economic reasons

In other words,

marginally attached workers are persons who currently are neither working nor looking for work, but indicate that they want and are available for a job, and have looked for work sometime in the recent past.
Discouraged workers, a subset of the marginally attached, have given a job-market related reason for not looking currently for a job.

The U-6 report counts everyone that is unemployed--officially and unofficially.
Here are some other statistics that you might find disconcerting.

About 2.2 million persons (not seasonally adjusted) were marginally attached to the labor force in September. 615,000 more than a year earlier. These individuals wanted and were available for work, and had looked for a job sometime in the past 12 months. They were not counted as unemployed because they had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey.
Among the marginally attached, there were 706,000 discouraged workers in September, up by 239,000 from a year earlier.
In September, the average workweek for production and nonsupervisory workers on private nonfarm payrolls fell by 0.1 hour to 33.0 hours--the lowest level on record for the series, which began in 1964.
The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) increased by 450,000 to 5.4 million.
In September, 35.6 Percent of unemployed persons were jobless for 27 weeks or more.

This morning the stock market reacted negatively to the unemployment report. If you are wondering why--all you need to do is look beyond the obvious.

This is what this website is all about.

These numbers do not bode well for stocks and indicate at best, we are looking at slow growth in the months ahead.

All of the statistics in this article were sourced from the Department of Labor--Bureau of Labor Statistics.

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Original content by Bob DeMarco, All American Investor

Personal Income and Outlays, August 2009

rtdemarco@gmail.com (Bob DeMarco) — Thu, 01 Oct 2009 13:27:00 +0000

Personal income increased $19.3 billion, or 0.2 percent,
Disposable personal income (DPI) increased $15.5 billion, or 0.1 percent,
Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $129.6 billion, or 1.3 percent.

To read the full text of the release go here.

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Producer Price Index (PPI, Graph)

rtdemarco@gmail.com (Bob DeMarco) — Tue, 15 Sep 2009 17:57:00 +0000

The Producer Price Index for Finished Goods advanced 1.7 percent in August, seasonally
adjusted. This increase followed a 0.9-percent decline in July and a 1.8-percent advance in June.

Prices for finished goods less foods and energy rose 0.2 percent in August after edging down 0.1 percent a month earlier.

The Producer Price Index for Finished Goods advanced 1.7 percent in August, seasonally adjusted, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. This increase followed a 0.9-percent decline in July and a 1.8-percent advance in June. In August, at the earlier stages of processing, prices received by manufacturers of intermediate goods rose 1.8 percent and the crude goods index moved up 3.8 percent. On an unadjusted basis, prices for finished goods fell 4.3 percent from August 2008 to August 2009, following a record 6.8 percent 12-month decline in July.

Finished goods

In August, over ninety percent of the finished goods increase was the result of higher energy prices, which moved up 8.0 percent. The indexes for finished goods less foods and energy and for finished consumer foods also contributed to the advance in finished goods prices, rising 0.2 percent and 0.4 percent, respectively.

Finished energy: The index for finished energy goods climbed 8.0 percent in August, the largest monthly increase since a 10.2-percent rise in November 2007. About eighty-five percent of the August advance can be attributed to higher gasoline prices, which surged 23.0 percent. Rising prices for home heating oil and liquefied petroleum gas also contributed to the increase in the finished energy goods index. (See table 2.)

Finished core: Prices for finished goods less foods and energy rose 0.2 percent in August after edging down 0.1 percent a month earlier. Accounting for over half of this increase, the light motor trucks index moved up 0.8 percent. Higher prices for passenger cars also were a major factor in the advance in the finished core index.

Finished foods: Prices for finished consumer foods moved up 0.4 percent in August following a 1.5-percent decline in July. Almost half of this increase can be attributed to higher prices for fresh fruits and melons, which rose 5.9 percent.

Intermediate goods

The Producer Price Index for Intermediate Materials, Supplies, and Components advanced 1.8 percent after falling 0.2 percent in July. Accounting for about eighty percent of the August increase, prices for intermediate energy goods rose 7.1 percent. Prices for intermediate materials less foods and energy gained 0.6 percent and the index for intermediate foods and feeds moved up 0.3 percent. For the 12 months ending in August, the decline in intermediate goods prices slowed to 12.3 percent from a record decrease of 15.1 percent from July 2008 to July 2009. (See table B.)

Intermediate energy: The index for intermediate energy goods increased 7.1 percent after decreasing 1.4 percent in July. A major contributor to the August increase was diesel fuel prices, which rose 15.9 percent. Higher prices for gasoline and lubricating oil base stocks also had a significant impact on the intermediate energy goods index. (See table 2.)

Intermediate core: Prices for intermediate materials less foods and energy climbed 0.6 percent, the third consecutive monthly increase. Accounting for over half of the gain in August, the steel mill products index increased 6.8 percent. Rising prices for primary basic organic chemicals also had a considerable effect on the intermediate core index.

Intermediate foods: The index for intermediate foods and feeds advanced 0.3 percent after declining 2.0 percent in July. A 6.1-percent increase in the index for corn, cottonseed, and soybean cake and meal accounted for nearly all of the increase in intermediate foods and feeds prices.

Source Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor

Bob DeMarco is a citizen journalist and twenty year Wall Street veteran. Bob has written more than 500 articles with more than 11,000 links to his work on the Internet. Content from All American Investor has been syndicated on Reuters, the Wall Street Journal, Fox News, Pluck, Blog Critics, and a growing list of newspaper websites. Bob is actively seeking syndication and writing assignments.

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Unemployment Trend Remains UP (Graph)

rtdemarco@gmail.com (Bob DeMarco) — Sat, 05 Sep 2009 13:39:00 +0000

Savvy investors understand that the market usually bottoms and turns up long before unemployment peaks. In other words, the market discounts the bad news in advance. So it is easy to understand how the market can rally in spite of the negative unemployment report.

There has not been much discussion about the number of people that are falling off the unemployment insurance payrolls each month. Another 1.5-2 million people will stop getting checks by the end of the year. Unless, of course, these benefits are extended. Additionally, the civilian labor force is dropping or the numbers would be much worse.

We will discuss the growing number of people that have been unemployed 27 weeks or longer, and the real unemployment rate shortly.

The uptrend in unemployment is still strong as evidence by this chart.

Bob DeMarco is a citizen journalist and twenty year Wall Street veteran. Bob has written more than 700 articles with more than 18,000 links to his work on the Internet. Content from All American Investor has been syndicated on Reuters, the Wall Street Journal, Fox News, Pluck, Blog Critics, and a growing list of newspaper websites. Bob is actively seeking syndication and writing assignments.

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Original content Bob DeMarco, All American Investor

THE Employment/Unempoyment Situation (Bullet Point Version)

rtdemarco@gmail.com (Bob DeMarco) — Fri, 04 Sep 2009 14:13:00 +0000

Nonfarm payroll employment continued to decline in August (-216,000), and the unemployment rate rose to 9.7 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Although job losses continued in many of the major industry sectors in August, the declines have moderated in recent months.

The Situation

In August, the number of unemployed persons increased by 466,000 to 14.9 million,
The unemployment rate rose by 0.3 percentage point to 9.7 percent,
Since the recession began in December 2007, the number of unemployed persons has risen by 7.4 million, and the unemployment rate has grown by 4.8 percentage points,
The civilian labor force participation rate remained at 65.5 percent in August The employment population ratio, at 59.2 percent, edged down over the month and has declined by 3.5 percentage points since the recession began in December 2007,
In August, the number of persons working part time for economic reasons was little changed at 9.1 million. These individuals indicated that they were working part time because their hours had been cut back or because they were unable to find a full-time job,
Among the marginally attached, the number of discouraged workers in August (758,000) has nearly doubled over the past 12 months,
The average workweek for production and nonsupervisory workers on private nonfarm payrolls was unchanged at 33.1 hours

Employment Situation

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Institute for Supply Management Factory Index (ISM), (NAPM, Graph)

rtdemarco@gmail.com (Bob DeMarco) — Wed, 02 Sep 2009 15:26:00 +0000

The Institute for Supply Management factory index (ISM)index rose to 52.9% in August, the first time the index has been above 50% since the early days of the recession in January 2008.

"The year-and-a-half decline in manufacturing output has come to an end, as 11 of 18 manufacturing industries are reporting growth when comparing August to July. While this is certainly a positive occurrence, we have to keep in mind that it is the beginning of a new cycle and that all industries are not yet participating in the growth. The August index of 52.9 percent is the highest since June 2007. The 4 percentage point increase was driven by significant strength in the New Orders Index, which is up 9.6 points to 64.9 percent, the highest since December 2004. The growth appears sustainable in the short term, as inventories have been reduced for 40 consecutive months and supply chains will have to re-stock to meet this new demand."

WHAT RESPONDENTS ARE SAYING ...

"Production is picking up as demand [for] orders is being accelerated." (Nonmetallic Mineral Products)
"Demand from automotive manufacturers increasing thanks to 'Cash for Clunkers.'" (Fabricated Metal Products)
"In addition to improved business come the complications of a supply chain drained of inventory." (Paper Products)
"The sudden increase in customer demand, plus the low inventories held at services centers, is causing a shortage in the supply of raw steel." (Transportation Equipment)
"[It] appears customers' inventories are getting low, and they are cautiously placing orders." (Apparel, Leather & Allied Products)

PMI

Manufacturing's 18 consecutive months of decline ended in August as the PMI registered 52.9 percent, which is 4 percentage points higher than the 48.9 percent reported in July. This is the highest reading since June 2007, when the index also registered 52.9 percent. A reading above 50 percent indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally contracting.

A PMI in excess of 41.2 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy. Therefore, the PMI indicates growth for the fourth consecutive month in the overall economy, as well as expansion in the manufacturing sector for the first time since January 2008. Ore stated, "The past relationship between the PMI and the overall economy indicates that the average PMI for January through August (42.2 percent) corresponds to a 0.3 percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP). However, if the PMI for August (52.9 percent) is annualized, it corresponds to a 3.7 percent increase in real GDP annually."

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Healthcare Spending and Relative Performance Ranking by Country (Graph)

rtdemarco@gmail.com (Bob DeMarco) — Wed, 12 Aug 2009 18:15:00 +0000

I am wondering if many people understand that we spend twice as much on healthcare as most industrialized countries. At the same time, our world ranking in healthcare delivery is poor.

It might be interesting to note that the profits of healthcare insurance companies rose by more than 400 percent in the period 2000-2007.

During the same period, the number of people without healthcare insurance, and the cost of healthcare insurance was rising fast.

It also surprises me when I see people arguing on television that they prefer the status quo.

All information is taking from 2005 OECD data unless otherwise noted.
*2000, 2003-2005 World Health Organization Data. **2004 OECD data.
Source: Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, World Health Organization
Analysis by PricewaterhouseCoopers’ Heath Research Institute

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Unemployment A Picture Worth a Thousand Words (Graph)

rtdemarco@gmail.com (Bob DeMarco) — Fri, 07 Aug 2009 18:40:00 +0000

Civilian Unemployment Rate (Percent).

You tell me. Glass half full, glass half empty?

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Real Unemployment 16.8 Percent (Not Seasonally Adjusted)

rtdemarco@gmail.com (Bob DeMarco) — Fri, 07 Aug 2009 13:31:00 +0000

Among the marginally attached, there were 796,000 discouraged workers in July, up by 335,000 over the past 12 months. (The data are not seasonally adjusted.)

Discouraged workers are persons not currently looking for work because they believe no jobs are available for them.

Not many people are aware of the U-6 report that is issued by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Most news organizations report the more popular Bureau of Labor Statistics--Civilian Unemployment Rate. If you read this report today then you learned that unemployment was 9.4 percent.

Real Unemployment U-6 -- 16.8%

There is another category of unemployed that are not counted in that report. They are described in the U-6 report this way,

The U-6 report counts everyone that is unemployed. To view the report go here.

U-6

Total unemployed
plus all marginally attached workers
plus total employed part time for economic reasons
as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all marginally attached workers

The number reported today for this series is 16.8% .

Not a very pretty picture if you fall in these categories.

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THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION -- All Sectors Report

rtdemarco@gmail.com (Bob DeMarco) — Fri, 07 Aug 2009 12:48:00 +0000

Nonfarm payroll employment continued to decline in July (-247,000),
and the unemployment rate was little changed at 9.4 percent, the U.S.
Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. The average monthly job
loss for May through July (-331,000) was about half the average
decline for November through April (-645,000). In July, job losses
continued in many of the major industry sectors.

The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for May was revised
from -322,000 to -303,000, and the change for June was revised from -
467,000 to -443,000.

THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION -- JULY 2009

Nonfarm payroll employment continued to decline in July (-247,000),
and the unemployment rate was little changed at 9.4 percent, the U.S.
Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. The average monthly job
loss for May through July (-331,000) was about half the average
decline for November through April (-645,000). In July, job losses
continued in many of the major industry sectors.

Household Survey Data

In July, the number of unemployed persons was 14.5 million. The
unemployment rate was 9.4 percent, little changed for the second
consecutive month. (See table A-1.)

Among the major worker groups, unemployment rates for adult men (9.8
percent), adult women (7.5 percent), teenagers (23.8 percent), whites
(8.6 percent), blacks (14.5 percent), and Hispanics (12.3 percent)
were little changed in July. The unemployment rate for Asians was 8.3
percent, not seasonally adjusted. (See tables A-1, A-2, and A-3.)

The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more)
rose by 584,000 over the month to 5.0 million. In July, 1 in 3 unemploy-
ed persons were jobless for 27 weeks or more. (See table A-9.)

The civilian labor force participation rate declined by 0.2 percentage
point in July to 65.5 percent. The employment-population ratio, at 59.4
percent, was little changed over the month but has declined by 3.3 per-
centage points since the recession began in December 2007. (See
table A-1.)

The number of persons working part time for economic reasons (sometimes
referred to as involuntary part-time workers) was little changed in July
at 8.8 million. The number of such workers rose sharply in the fall and
winter but has been little changed for 4 consecutive months.
(See table A-5.)

About 2.3 million persons were marginally attached to the labor force
in July, 709,000 more than a year earlier. (The data are not seasonally
adjusted.) These individuals, who were not in the labor force, wanted
and were available for work and had looked for a job sometime in the
prior 12 months. They were not counted as unemployed because they had
not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey. (See
table A-13.)

Among the marginally attached, there were 796,000 discouraged workers
in July, up by 335,000 over the past 12 months. (The data are not
seasonally adjusted.) Discouraged workers are persons not currently
looking for work because they believe no jobs are available for them.
The other 1.5 million persons marginally attached to the labor force
in July had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey
for reasons such as school attendance or family responsibilities.

Establishment Survey Data

Total nonfarm payroll employment declined by 247,000 in July. From May
to July, job losses averaged 331,000 per month, compared with losses
averaging 645,000 per month from November to April. Since December
2007, payroll employment has fallen by 6.7 million. (See table B-1.)

Employment in construction declined by 76,000 in July, about in line
with the average for the past 3 months (-73,000). Employment had de-
creased by 117,000 a month on average from November to April.

Manufacturing employment fell by 52,000 in July and has declined by
2.0 million since the recession began. In motor vehicles and parts,
fewer workers than usual were laid off in July for seasonal retool-
ing. As a result, the estimate of employment for the industry rose
by 28,000 after seasonal adjustment. In large part, July's seasonally-
adjusted increase reflects the fact that previous job cuts had been
so extensive that there were fewer workers to lay off during the sea-
sonal shutdown. Elsewhere in manufacturing, several industries con-
tinued to lose jobs in July, including machinery (-15,000) and fabri-
cated metal products (-14,000).

In July, retail trade employment declined by 44,000. Job losses in the
industry had averaged 27,000 per month over the prior 3 months. Em-
ployment in wholesale trade fell by 19,000 in July, with the majority
of the decline occurring among durable goods wholesalers.

Employment in professional and business services continued to trend
down in July (-38,000); the industry has shed 1.5 million jobs since
the start of the recession. Within professional and business services,
employment in the temporary help industry edged down in July. While
temporary help has lost 844,000 jobs since the recession began, the
declines have lessened substantially over the past 3 months.

Transportation and warehousing lost 22,000 jobs in July. Since May,
the average monthly job loss was half the average monthly decline for
November through April (-17,000 versus -34,000).

Financial activities employment continued to trend down in July
(-13,000). The average monthly decline for this industry was 23,000
over the past 3 months compared with 46,000 per month from November
through April. Since the start of the recession, the financial acti-
vities industry has lost 501,000 jobs. Employment in information de-
clined by 16,000 in July, including losses in publishing and telecom-
munications.

Health care employment increased by 20,000 in July, about in line
with the average monthly gain for the first half of this year but
down from an average monthly increase of 30,000 during 2008. Employ-
ment in lei-sure and hospitality has been little changed over the
past 3 months.

In July, the average workweek of production and nonsupervisory work-
ers on private nonfarm payrolls edged up by 0.1 hour to 33.1 hours.
The manufacturing workweek increased by 0.3 hour to 39.8 hours. Fac-
tory overtime was unchanged at 2.9 hours. (See table B-2.)

In July, average hourly earnings of production and nonsupervisory
workers on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 3 cents, or 0.2 percent,
to $18.56. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have
increased by 2.5 percent, while average weekly earnings have risen
by only 1.0 percent due to declines in the average workweek. (See
table B-3.)

The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for May was revised
from -322,000 to -303,000, and the change for June was revised from -
467,000 to -443,000.

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National Association of Purchasing Managers Report (Graph)

rtdemarco@gmail.com (Bob DeMarco) — Tue, 04 Aug 2009 13:55:00 +0000

Economic activity in the manufacturing sector failed to grow in July for the 18th consecutive month, while the overall economy grew for the third consecutive month, say the nation's supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®.

The current index is 48.9 versus 44.8 in June. An increase of 4.1 percent.

A PMI reading above 50 percent indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent that it is generally declining. Institute for Supply Management

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Reserve Bank Credit Dropping are Higher Interest Rates on the Near Term Horizon? (Graph)

rtdemarco@gmail.com (Bob DeMarco) — Sat, 01 Aug 2009 18:35:00 +0000

Reserve Bank Credit is peaking. Reserve credit is down from the peak of $2,236 billions during December, 2008, the secondary top at $2,165 billions during May, 2009. The current reading is $2,010 billions.

This series should be watched closely. The current drop in the dollar could force the Federal Reserve to continue draining reserves from the system to protect the dollar from an all out free fall.

This will likely lead to an increase in long term interest rates. However, it is time to start watching the two year treasury security closely.

Note: Reserve Bank credit is the sum of securities held outright, repurchase agreements, term auction credit, other loans, net portfolio holdings of Commercial Paper Funding Facility LLC, net portfolio holdings of LLCs funded through the Money Market Investor Funding Facility, net portfolio holdings of Maiden Lane LLC, net portfolio holdings of Maiden Lane II LLC, net portfolio holdings of Maiden Lane III LLC, float, central bank liquidity swaps, and other Federal Reserve assets.

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Gross Domestic Product Percent Change (Chart)

rtdemarco@gmail.com (Bob DeMarco) — Sat, 01 Aug 2009 15:30:00 +0000

Gross Domestic Product, 1 Decimal, Quarterly, Billions of Dollars, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate.

Bar Chart, Percent Change

$14,149.8 Billions versus $14,497.8 a year ago.

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Real National Defense Gross Investment (Graph)

rtdemarco@gmail.com (Bob DeMarco) — Sat, 01 Aug 2009 14:30:00 +0000

Real National Defense Gross Investment, Quarterly, Billions of Chained 2000 Dollars, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate.

FYI.

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