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	<title>Econforecaster</title>
	
	<link>http://www.econforecaster.com</link>
	<description>Economic Commentary and Analysis from Jim Smith.</description>
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		<title>Get Ready for a Weird Employment Report</title>
		<link>http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/Econforecaster/~3/ZsftcNGA9p8/</link>
		<comments>http://www.econforecaster.com/economy/2010/03/03/get-ready-for-a-weird-employment-report/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 03 Mar 2010 22:54:12 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Jim</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[The Economy]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.econforecaster.com/?p=578</guid>
		
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[On Friday the BLS will release the &#8220;Employment Situation&#8221; report for February.  There has been much speculation that it could show a net gain in nonfarm payroll jobs, a small loss of 20,000 such jobs, or a big drop of 100,000 or more.
Today, the ADP report, which is the only major forecast of the [...]<br/>
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		<title>Not a Surprise, Construction Was Weak in 2009</title>
		<link>http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/Econforecaster/~3/uq63b_Bx9bE/</link>
		<comments>http://www.econforecaster.com/economy/2010/02/02/not-a-surprise-construction-was-weak-in-2009/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 02 Feb 2010 22:54:14 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Jim</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[The Economy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[construction spending]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.econforecaster.com/?p=576</guid>
		
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[On February 1 the Census Bureau told us that the value of construction put in place in 2009 was $939.1 billion.  That was a plunge of 12.4 percent from the $1,072.1 billion spent in 2008.
Indeed, it was the first year that construction spending has been below $1 trillion since 2003.  Nearly all forecasters [...]<br/>
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		<item>
		<title>The ISM Delivers a Barnburner Number</title>
		<link>http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/Econforecaster/~3/UWIpYuHwOH4/</link>
		<comments>http://www.econforecaster.com/economy/2010/02/02/the-ism-delivers-a-barnburner-number/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 02 Feb 2010 15:18:18 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Jim</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[The Economy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[manufacturing index]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.econforecaster.com/?p=574</guid>
		
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[On February 1 the Institute of Supply Management told us that their PMI index for manufacturing hit 58.4 percent in January, up from 54.9 percent in December.  That index has now risen for six consecutive months after declining for 13 months in a row.
The January reading was the highest since August 2004 when it [...]<br/>
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		<title>Some Good News from Consumers</title>
		<link>http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/Econforecaster/~3/jRLgu2CE0Ew/</link>
		<comments>http://www.econforecaster.com/economy/2010/02/01/some-good-news-from-consumers/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 01 Feb 2010 17:16:13 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Jim</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[The Economy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[consumer confidence]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.econforecaster.com/?p=572</guid>
		
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[On January 29 the University of Michigan reported that its Index of Consumer Sentiment was 74.4 in January (March 1965=100).  That was the highest since January 2008, the first full month of the recession.
Survey director Dr. Richard Curtin said, &#8220;Consumers are overwhelmingly convinced that the worst is over but nonetheless expect stagnating income and [...]<br/>
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		<title>Retail Sales Were Pretty Darn Good in December</title>
		<link>http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/Econforecaster/~3/lIKQR6Gdq5c/</link>
		<comments>http://www.econforecaster.com/economy/2010/02/01/retail-sales-were-pretty-darn-good-in-december/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 01 Feb 2010 16:30:48 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Jim</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[The Economy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[retail sales]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.econforecaster.com/?p=568</guid>
		
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[On January 14 the Census Bureau gave us the advance estimates of retail and food services sales for December and the full year 2009.  The year ended better than most people expected.
The total for December (adjusted for seasonal variation, holiday and trading day differences) was $353.0 billion, up 5.4 percent from the year before. [...]<br/>
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		<item>
		<title>The “Great American Jobs Machine” Is Still Running</title>
		<link>http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/Econforecaster/~3/lFJT6RopSJw/</link>
		<comments>http://www.econforecaster.com/economy/2010/01/31/the-great-american-jobs-machine-is-still-running/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 31 Jan 2010 22:16:07 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Jim</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[The Economy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[employment data]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.econforecaster.com/?p=565</guid>
		
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[If you really want to know what is going on with employment in the US, you must go beyond &#8220;The Employment Situation&#8221; that the BLS releases early every month and which gets huge media coverage.  (The next update is February 5 covering January and big downward revisions to 2008 and 2009 data.)  The [...]<br/>
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		<item>
		<title>You Can Speak to Me, But You Can’t Speak for Me</title>
		<link>http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/Econforecaster/~3/GnEbaHb2SGg/</link>
		<comments>http://www.econforecaster.com/economy/2010/01/27/you-can-speak-to-me-but-you-cant-speak-for-me/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 27 Jan 2010 13:20:45 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>dunkelberg</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[The Economy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[election funding]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.econforecaster.com/?p=563</guid>
		
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[(title attributed to the late Professor of Economics Kenneth Boulding)
The Supreme Court’s decision to treat business entities as “people” has fired up political pundits and lobbyists on all sides.  Corporate political support since 1990 has exceeded union political support by a margin of 3 to 1.  But, corporate political support has been evenly [...]<br/>
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		<item>
		<title>The “Great Moderation” Lives</title>
		<link>http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/Econforecaster/~3/sP7_ZdVjCFU/</link>
		<comments>http://www.econforecaster.com/economy/2010/01/23/the-great-moderation-lives/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 23 Jan 2010 16:03:52 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Jim</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[The Economy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[GDP forecast]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[inflation]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.econforecaster.com/?p=561</guid>
		
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[There&#8217;s an important paper you ought to read by an &#8220;only in America&#8221; pair of economists&#8211;one from France and one from Ukraine&#8211;who teach at US universities on the east and west coasts (William and Mary for Prof. Coibion and UC-Berkeley for Prof. Gorodnichenko).  It&#8217;s short, fairly easy to read and is based on their [...]<br/>
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		<item>
		<title>Quick Jobs and Improved GDP</title>
		<link>http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/Econforecaster/~3/apY7fO7z974/</link>
		<comments>http://www.econforecaster.com/economy/2010/01/19/quick-jobs-and-improved-gdp/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 20 Jan 2010 03:07:49 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Jim</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[The Economy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[deadweight losses]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[flat tax]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[infrastructure]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[jobs]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.econforecaster.com/?p=558</guid>
		
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[One of my friends/readers sent me an email on the previous post and in his note he said, &#8221; I ask my clients how the US could genuinely employ more people? One quick response was, &#8216;Build 50 nuclear power plants as fast as you can!&#8217;&#8221;  Here&#8217;s my take on that:
The man who suggested the [...]<br/>
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		<item>
		<title>Bad News from Small Business Owners</title>
		<link>http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/Econforecaster/~3/UudrSNaGgno/</link>
		<comments>http://www.econforecaster.com/economy/2010/01/12/bad-news-from-small-business-owners/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 12 Jan 2010 21:31:52 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Jim</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[The Economy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[small business optimism index]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[small businesses]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.econforecaster.com/?p=556</guid>
		
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[Today the NFIB reported that the Small Business Optimism Index fell from 88.3 in November (1986=100) to 88.0 in December.  That marks six consecutive quarters with the index below 90.  In sharp contrast, such a dismal result happened in only one quarter of the 1980-1982 period, which was marked by two recessions.
The first [...]<br/>
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