There is a growing avalanche of bad news for overall February 2010 retail industry same-store-sales.  Results are announced March 4th – here are 10 reasons why they will likely come in much lower than the +2% to +3% expectations on Wall Street:

1.  Snowmageddon!  As the chart below indicates, February national snowfall will be off the chart and likely to crush all records for the snowiest February in 115 years.  It’s tough to convince consumers to make Spring purchases when snow is all we see.  THIS IS A BIG NEGATIVE!

2.  The most highly correlated external factor to overall retail industry same-store-sales (SSS) is SNOW with an 84% correlation toward LESS being more favorable for higher SSS.  Over the past 30 years, a snowier February results in lower than expected SSS for 82% of cases.  THIS IS A BIG NEGATIVE!

3.  A cold/wet/snowy February average SSS are +1.3% over the past 30 year’s vs a warm/dry/little snow February which brings much higher SSS of +6.7%.  THIS IS A BIG NEGATIVE!

4.  There were 21 days this February with significantly more snow than last year and the most snow before Valentine’s and President’s Day in decades.  Nearly 70% of the country was covered in snow (49 of 50 states) prior to Valentine’s Day – the most on record.  THIS IS A BIG NEGATIVE!

5.  The Consumer Confidence Index is the 2nd most correlated external factor to retail industry SSS at 73%.  While February consumer confidence came in at 46, much lower than the 55 predicted, it is down from the 56 in January.  90 is considered a good economy.  THIS IS A BIG NEGATIVE!

6.  The next most correlated factor is temperature (46%) with warmer being better.  February 2010 is on pace to be the coldest since the 1970s (30+ years) with a 5.2F drop from last year.  Every 1F colder can cost retailers up to 0.7% in lost sales.  THIS IS A BIG NEGATIVE!

7.  A stronger than expected January (we had that in 2010 with the +3% gain) is followed by a weaker than expected February in 63% of cases over the past 30 years.   THIS IS A NEGATIVE!

8.  Unemployment is at +9.7% this February vs +8.1% a year ago.  THIS IS A NEGATIVE!

9.  Gasoline prices are up +39% vs a year ago at $2.66 a gallon vs $1.91 gallon.  THIS IS A NEGATIVE.

10. THE ONE BIG POSITIVE?  Very easy comparisons to last year February SSS results which were the worst in 30 years at -4.3% according to data from ICSC.  If it wasn’t for this easy comp, February 2010 would be a complete disaster; even with the easy comp results are likely to be much lower than expected!

CLICK ON CHART FOR LARGER VIEW

This weekend the BBC throws more cold water (or should we say snow balls) on the “ClimateGate” scandal and professor Phil Jones (former head of the East Anglia Climate Research Unit (U.K.), lead IPCC author and data provider for the infamous “hockey stick”).  The professor admits that ”there has been no statistically significant warming for 15 years” and it’s possible that the Medieval Warm Period (800AD – 1300 AD) was warmer than the 20th century as thousands of climate scientists believe is the case.  This is the first time a leading IPCC author admitted that the science is not settled!  For the full story CLICK HERE.

The next group of “scientists” that should be investigated are right here in the U.S. at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Penn State’s Michael Mann (Ohh..he’s already under investigation), NASA climate activist James Hansen and Noble Gore.  Supposedly, January was the warmest ever for the planet while much of the world was in a Deep Freeze and blanketed in 49 million square kilometers of snow across the Northern Hemisphere (2nd most on record in December, 6th most in January and very likely the most ever in February according to data from Rutgers University’s Global Snow Lab).  WTI tracks thousands of weather reporting sites from around the world and those stations show a much colder January across the globe.  Supposedly, it was the Oceans that caused the record warm January global temperatures as you and I have no way to validate that data.

Of course “weather” is not “climate” as we’re all reminded, most recently by New York Times reporter John Broden who said in his February 10th, 2010 story Climate-Change Debate is heating up in Deep Freeze.  John says “Most climate scientists respond that the ferocious storms are consistent with forecasts that a heating planet will produce more frequent and more intense weather events.”  NOT!  Over the past 15 years when there has been no significant warming and actually dramatic cooling the past 4 years, we’ve had a dramatic increase in Northern Hemisphere snow cover and earlier than normal snowfall.  Rutger’s snow stats show the following:

• October:  7 of the past 10 years above average Northern Hemispheric snowfall
• November: 15 of the past 19 years above average Northern Hemispheric snowfall
• December: 17 of the past 21 years above average Northern Hemispheric snowfall
• January: 6 of the past 8 years above average Northern Hemispheric snowfall
• February: on pace to be the snowiest ever!

In fact, January Northern Hemisphere snowfall has shown a 5 million square kilometer increase in snowfall over the past 20 years going from 1-2 million square KM below average in the 1980s and 1990s to 1-3 million square KM above average in the past 10 years – more similar to the 1970s!  So the real data suggests the Winters are getting longer, not shorter and cold and snow are much more frequent further South in recent years.

So, be a skeptic when the media or a politician or academic professor or government agency tells you the debate is over!  It’s just getting started!  Read up on the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) cycle as it’s very likely the major global factor responsible for the colder and snowier trends the past 4 years and likely to continue for 28 more years while it goes through it’s cold cycle phase.

Globally- it was a frigid January with the coldest and snowiest conditions in decades for much of the U.K., Europe, Russia, Northern China and the Southern U.S. which is a big negative for overall retail sales performance.  

Historically a warmer, drier and less snowy January results in +5% higher retail industry same-store sales (SSS) gains compared to a cold and snowy month.

Here in North America the pattern was up-side-down with Canada having the 2^nd warmest January in two decades with snowfall across the country down -47% vs. a year ago while the Deep South of the U.S. had snowfall up +161% in the Southeast over last year (most in 14 years), up +188% in the South Central U.S. (most in 13 years) and up +331% in the Southwest (most in 5 years).  The late month Deep South snow storm resulted in U.S. snow cover reaching 70% of the U.S. blanketed in some snow – something that hasn’t occurred in decades.  Across the Southern U.S. temperatures were also the coldest in 9 years with record breaking freezes as far south as Florida driving triple digit sales gains for Winter merchandise.  CLICK ON CHART FOR LARGER VIEW

Across the northern U.S. it wasn’t quite as bad with the Pacific Northwest having the warmest January in over 18 years and snowfall down a whopping -83% the least in 16 years (very favorable for retail store traffic).  Even in the North Central U.S. and Northeast snowfall was down -39% and -34% respectively with 5°F warmer conditions than a year ago (a significant change on a monthly level). 

Nationally, snowfall was down -22% vs. a year ago January (9^th snowiest of the past 17 years) and -6% below average.   These milder and less snowy trends across the Northern U.S. were certainly a plus for overall retail industry SSS and while the stormy weather in the South would ordinarily be a negative it actually spurred strong sales for Winter seasonal merchandise with “panic” buying for storm related merchandise and pantry loading items.  The chart below shows a day-by-day summary of the extreme record breaking cold early in the month followed by a big January thaw warm-up.  CLICK ON CHART FOR LARGER VIEW

“The most important and statistically significant factors for stronger retail sales performance in January are the consumer confidence index followed closely by less severe weather,” said Bill Kirk, CEO Weather Trends International.  Last year the January index was at an all time low (38) which in part explains the disastrous retail SSS results of -4.8% according to ICSC’s tally of 60 major retailers vs. this year’s confidence index of 53.  While 53 is nothing to get too excited about (90 is a strong index indicating a strong economy) it’s still better than last year and combined with the more favorable weather trends retailers should post gains in-line to higher than expected when results are announced Thursday, February 4^th.  Over the past 25 years a stronger than expected December (December 2009 brought very strong industry gains of +3.6% according to ICSC) is followed by a stronger than expected January 82% of cases so the math suggests more retailers will again be in positive territory!

 For a complete business-weather roundup click on the links below for a detailed PDF summary report:

U.S. January 2010 Retail Business Weather Summary Report

U.K. January 2010 Retail Business-Weather Summary Report

G-20 January 2010 Retail Business-Weather Summary Report

At 7:30am EST this morning Pennsylvania’s Groudhog weather prognosticator apparently saw his shadow predicting 6 more weeks of Winter.  Sounds like Climate Gate 2 or he needs to get his eyes checked as the official weather observations showed completely overcast skies in Punxsutawney, PA this morning!  Hmmm?  He is 123 years old so the legend has it so I’m sticking with the bad eyes bit!  Or, maybe its all the media camera lights that created the shadow which in part explains why the rodent has predicted 6-more weeks of winter in 10 of the past 11 years.  Over 12,000 people from as far away as Chile mobbed the small town of just 5,944 permanent residents to see the rodent this morning.  PETA was there too suggesting animal cruelty but this glorified squirrel is living the good life to say the least.

But, for what it’s worth our year-ahead forecast would agree with the rodent this go around and our crack marketing team says that 9 out of 10 groundhogs use Weather Trends before making their predictions!

Weather Trends International has been advising clients for over a year now that late Winter into Spring would present a lot of challenges with a cold, wet and snowy start to February and similar trends until late March followed by more cold and wet through May.  Late March early April looks to be the first strong taste of Spring so Phil is most likely right this go around!

Remember the Super Saturday blizzard that was going to bring down the retail industry?  Recall the headlines and non-stop coverage of the “Monster Storm to ruin Christmas”?  So why did retail industry sales come in the best in 17 months and well above most predictions?  Three reasons why:

1) Higher Consumer Confidence

2) The timing and magnitude of snowfall during the month

3) Easy sales comparisons to the prior 2-years

First, the most significant factor in December for higher retail sales is the Consumer Confidence Index.  This year that index was up 53 vs 38 last year (worst ever).  An index of 90 or better indicates a stronger economy, so while it’s still weak it’s better than last year.  A PLUS!

Second, while snowfall was again excessive the timing was better.  Recall that last year the nation had the snowiest 2-weeks before Christmas in 114 years of records with widespread storms from Seattle to Chicago to New York.  This year 12 of 14 days prior to Christmas had less snowfall, actually down 41% vs last year’s record.  The Super Saturday storm could have been worse but the fact that Friday was fine from D.C. to Boston resulted in a huge surge in advance of the storm.  Snow didn’t even start in New York until later afternoon Saturday and was over Sunday am resulting in a 1/2 lost day.  90% of the country had a very dry Super Saturday with milder temperatures than last year’s record cold weather leading up to the holidays.

Finally, it’s not as hard to beat last year when December retail sales were the worst ever in 2008 (-4.6%) and 2007 (-0.8%).  Back-to-back negative years are always followed by a positive month.  One negative was gasoline prices trending up +60% over last year but historically gasoline prices show little if any correlation to retail industry same-store sales.

Here were the predictions for overall December retail industry same-store-sales as reported in the Wall Street Journal (page A4 November 28-29, 2009):

National Retail Federation:  -1%

ArchStone Consulting:  -1%

Deloitte Research:  0%

Retail Forward:  0%

ShopperTrak:  +2%

Customer Growth Partners:  +2.4%

ICSC:  +2% to +3%

Weather Trends Intl:  +2.6% (year-ahead projection)

Know and act on the weather – beat the market!

Below are links to WTI’s historical December Summary Reports for the U.S., G-20 and UK. All 195 Countries are available from WTI.

U.S. DEC 2009 Retail Business Weather Round-up:  CLICK FOR REPORT

G-20 DEC 2009 Retail Business Weather Round-up: CLICK FOR REPORT

U.K. DEC 2009 Retail Business Weather Round-up:  CLICK FOR REPORT

If you read the headlines or watched the non-stop TV coverage on the “MONSTER STORM” you are left to believe this one storm will bring down the retail industry and ruin the holiday shopping season?  Not so fast!

First, recall that LAST YEAR we had the snowiest 10-days prior to Christmas in 114 years (all time record) with 1,230 inches of snow across the U.S. with 60% of the country covered in the white stuff.  Last year across the U.S. 20 of 26 days before Christmas had heavy snow (above average) with 7 days of heavy snow occurring on weekends that truly was a monster event with 8 straight record breaking snowfall days between the 17th and 24th (see national daily snowfall summary chart below).  This prolonged event last year crushed the holiday season with retail industry sales the worst ever at -4.7%.  We also have to recall that last year we had record cold weather with sub-zero temperatures across the northern half of the country the days leading up to Christmas which was a big negative for store traffic as well.  The Northwest, North Central and Northeast all had the coldest and snowiest last weekend before Christmas in decades last year making it a very widespread problem for retailers.

THIS YEAR we’ve had the one mid-week storm (Tue 12/8 – Wed 12/9) in the Midwest which was actually a plus for clearing excess winter seasonal merchandise after the warmest November in 8 years that resulted in -0.1% retail industry same-store sales declines.  As the chart above shows, only about 8 days this December were impacted by heavy snow vs 20 last year for the nation as a whole.  National snowfall for the 10-days leading up to Christmas over the past 17 years showed a 114 year record breaking spike last year with this year trending down 50% to 65% for a more typical December snowfall total.

From December 11th – 19th this year, national snowfall is down 53% vs a year ago and only this one day “Super Saturday” shows more snow.  Last year the blizzards hit on Friday which was probably worse since this year we had Friday with no weather impacts from Philadelphia to New York with 1/2 of this Saturday dry from New York North.  The Washington D.C. area to Philadelphia is clearly the hardest hit area with 12″ to 20″ snow all day Saturday.  The rest of the country – DRY – for about 90% of the rest of the U.S. this Saturday.  Some areas in the Middle Atlantic are without power so that further hampers any on-line purchases that typically soar when the weather is bad.

With much less snow expected for the balance of December, retail industry same-store sales are still likely to post +1% to +3% gains vs last year’s -4.7% and 2007s -0.7% SSS.

First we had Al Gore airbrushing in hurricanes in his new book, now we have real scientists air brushing out “inconvenient” global temperature history.  A lot has been made about the e-mails from the Climate Research Unit at the University of East Anglia that imply leading IPCC scientists, including Penn State’s Michael Mann used tricks to “hide the decline” but it goes a lot further than just e-mails.  The source code used to generate alarming temperature diagrams in the IPCC reports is far more telling of what clearly is becoming the greatest scientific fraud in history!

The 1st IPCC U.N. global warming report in 1990 acknowledged there was a Medieval Warm Period here on Earth from about 1000 to 1300 AD (warmer than today) and also acknowledged there was a little Ice Age from 1400 to 1900 AD.  This is the chart in the first IPCC Report (Figure 7C).

But that warm period would later become a problem for IPCC as it brings into doubt whether the current warm cycle is man-made or a naturally occurring cycle.  So, in version 3 of the IPCC report in 2001 both the Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age were not airbrushed out but rather using computer programs to smooth out the problem period (Medieval Warm Period) so as to make the current warm period look really bad and unprecedented (see chart below that came from chapter 2 page 134 IPCC report 3)

As more and more analysis is being done on the e-mails but more importantly the programming code/data out of the East Anglia University data sets shows how these so called scientists used ”tricks” that appear fraudulently conceived to “fudge” the data.  Here’s a very small snip it of the code that was used to generate the revised global temperature chart to make it look a lot more scary than reality.  This code creates an artificial 2.5C bias at the end of the infamous “hockey stick” chart that’s not valid since it wasn’t applied to the previous 1,000 years of history.  If it had been, as it should have been, the global temperature record would look a lot more like the first chart in 1990. 

valadj=[0.,0.,0.,0.,0.,-0.1,-0.25,-0.3,0.,-0.1,0.3,0.8,1.2,1.7,2.5,2.6,2.6,2.6,2.6,2.6]*0.75 ; fudge factor
yearlyadj=interpol(valadj,yrloc,x)
densall=densall+yearlyadj

ClimateGate is just the tip of the iceberg as there are many “tricks” that have been used in U.S. government data sets to change one part of history and not the other to make declines in sea ice for example look more exaggerated or unprecedented than they really are.

Dilbert got it right – when in doubt MAKE IT UP!

No surprises here as there were several factors that suggested November was in “no-mans-land” as WTI warned clients like JP Morgan,  Diamond Back Capital and Jefferies months ago.  November retail industry same-store sales were well below the Wall Street expectations of +2% to +7%, coming in at -0.3% according to data from the International Council of Shopping Centers.  The bullish forecasts were based on the very easy comp last year when retail SSS were the worst ever for any month at -7.7% but December 2007-2008 is a good reminder that you can have back-to-back negative retail sales!

So why so bad after a supposedly strong Black Friday?  Blame the weather and cannibalized sales into October and other simple trends.  First, the industry sales history tells us a lot.  October usually outshines November SSS about 87% of the time over the past 30 years.  When October is stronger than expected (it was this year) it leads to a weaker than expected November 73% of cases.  Right off that bat we knew that November would have issues since October was so much stronger due to great weather – 3rd coldest in history, wettest in 114 years and snowiest in 40 years – drove strong demand for must have Fall items.  This canabalized Fall and Winter seasonal merchandise out of November.  So what’s left for retailers to sell us since we already bought coats, sweaters, snow shovels, mouse traps, and firelogs in October?  Holiday gift categories like electronics (actually did well in November) – that’s about it.  Only problem there is consumers are buying holiday gift categories about 2 weeks before the holidays.  Seasonal category sales were further hurt by exceptionally warm November weather – warmest in 8 years!  The chart below summarizes the regional trends across the U.S. (CLICK ON IMAGE FOR FULL SIZE)

While the U.S. was mild, it was actually quite frigid in Russia and China with the coldest conditions in decades so seasonal sales were better in that region (see map below):

So what’s in store for December?  While the National Retail Federation is forecasting gloom and doom (-1%) the news is likely to be better.  Why?  Better weather!  The past two year’s we’ve had record snow and cold right around the holiday which curtails store traffic, consolidated/fewer trips to the mall and a surge in on-line sales.  With a much warmer, drier and much less snowy 2-weeks before Christmas store traffic will remain high benefiting gift categories at the expense of cold seasonal merchandise.  The two very weak Decembers -0.7% in 2007 and -4.7% in 2008 make for very easy comparisons this year – easier than November.  Santa and weather may save the day for brick and mortar retailers this holiday season; WTI expects gains of +2% or better!  Ho Ho Ho.  Be forewardned that cold and snow is likely to return during the last week gift exchange period so hopefully sales are made prior to Christmas.

Here we go again – only inconvenient truth are the FACTS don’t support Mr Gore’s global warming hysteria.  When the climate data doesn’t support your position or alarmist rhetoric – MAKE IT UP!  That’s exactly what we see in Al Gore’s new book “Our Choice” released this month.  We can start with the front of the book.  The images below show the real global satellite image used (left image) and the one that finally made it onto the cover of the book with a little creative editing (right image).  Thank goodness for Paint Shop Pro or the cover of the book would have been a lot less scary.  The image on the left is the real satellite photo which shows permanent Arctic Sea Ice is still here (biggest in several years), no scary hurricanes as global tropical activity is at the 2nd lowest levels in 50 years according to the experts at Florida State University – Ryan Maue (http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/tropical/).  The image on the right is what made it into the book.  The sad thing is the basic meteorology is wrong here with a hurricane spinning clockwise off Florida, a hurricane over the equator – not possible and magically the Arctic ice is gone. (CLICK IMAGE FOR LARGER VIEW)

The current global temperatures is +0.28C above the 30-year average but that’s down from the peak of +0.8C in 1998 (hottest year in recent decades) and even a little cooler than 21 years agon when temperatures were +0.2C to +0.4C above average in 1988. 

Speaking of 1988 wasn’t that the year of the “sweaty” congressional testimony from James Hansen who made dire predictions.  Recall that in 1988 the predictions for 20 years from then (that would be now) were

1) Global temperatures would be 1.5C above average – hmm that didn’t happen. 

2) New York City’s West Side Highway just blocks from Mr Hansen’s apartment would be underwater – hmm that didn’t happen. 

3) Severe droughts would be plaguing the Northeast with signs reading “water by request only” – hmm that didn’t happen as we’ve had exceptionally wet years in the 2000’s and several years of 100 year flooding events. 

4) Hurricanes would become devastating and widespread across the world – Ryan Maue’s data shows a near 30 year low (2nd weakeast in 50 years and dramatic plunge since 2005) so that didn’t happen. 

As we enter this 32-year cold phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO – read up on it) Cycle (cooling of the Pacific Ocean = cooler planet, warm phase was 1975-2006 = warm planet, cold phase was 1943-1975 very cold period on Earth, etc.) that started in 2006 we’ll continue to experience cooler trends here on Earth and that will inevitably result in more creative editing of the data to support the alarmist’s cause to establish a global government funded by all of us with a cap & trade tax.  Some IPCC scientists just recently made a new prediction that global cooling may take over for 30 years until warming resumes in 2040 due to the little understood influence of PDO and the Sun! hmmm  Those two things weren’t that important in the IPCC documents getting nothing more than a foot note – now it’s suddenly a big deal! 

Just recently the University of East Anglia (UK) Climate Research Unit was hacked with over 60 megs of files and e-mails taken that paint a disturbing view of what’s going on with government funded climate research.  The e-mail below suggests that if the data doesn’t support your cause – make it up (more from the BBC http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/8370282.stm)

From: Phil Jones
To: ray bradley ,mann@xxxxx.xxx, mhughes@xxxx.xxx
Subject: Diagram for WMO Statement
Date: Tue, 16 Nov 1999 13:31:15 +0000
Cc: k.briffa@xxx.xx.xx,t.osborn@xxxx.xxx

 Dear Ray, Mike and Malcolm,
Once Tim’s got a diagram here we’ll send that either later today or
first thing tomorrow.
I’ve just completed Mike’s Nature trick of adding in the real temps
to each series for the last 20 years (ie from 1981 onwards) amd from
1961 for Keith’s to hide the decline. Mike’s series got the annual
land and marine values while the other two got April-Sept for NH land
N of 20N. The latter two are real for 1999, while the estimate for 1999
for NH combined is +0.44C wrt 61-90. The Global estimate for 1999 with
data through Oct is +0.35C cf. 0.57 for 1998.
Thanks for the comments, Ray.

Cheers
Phil

Prof. Phil Jones
Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) xxxxx
School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) xxxx
University of East Anglia
Norwich Email p.jones@xxxx.xxx
NR4 7TJ
UK

NET-NET,  Save the $15.78 and wait for the sequel!

US RETAIL RECAP (OCTOBER 2009):  Retail same-store-sales are announced tomorrow – Thursday, November 5^th and the results are likely to blow away Wall Street expectations!  There are many reasons but most of those are due to the coldest, wettest and snowiest October in years which very likely trumped concerns over the economy and unemployment.  We have already heard from some retailers that their overall sales are 5% to 10%+ higher than they originally expected due in large part to exceptional weather and while Wall Street expects sales to be flat we’re expecting industry gains of +1% to +2.5% or better.  WTI research on retail industry same-store sales show the statistically most relevant factors for stronger SSS gains in order of importance are more snow (definitely had that), colder temperatures (had that too), more rainfall (record breaking in some cases) and the least statistically significant is the consumer confidence index.  Here are the top 10 factors impacting retail sales and Fall seasonal merchandise and why the news will be good on Thursday:

1. 2^nd coldest October in 33 years for the nation as a whole and the coldest in 7 years.
2. 1,908 record low temperatures during the month driving strong Fall and Winter sales.
3. The month was -2F colder than last year and every 1F colder brings a +0.7% gain in retail same-store sales just due to colder temperatures driving seasonal sales!
4. Top 5 wettest October in 114 years with +85% more rainfall than last year.
5. Snowiest October in at least 20 years with +126% more snow nationally than last year’s snowy October.
6. Coldest Columbus Day weekend in 9 years – fantastic for Fall seasonal category sales and promotional events.
7. No hurricanes to disrupt store traffic.
8. Gasoline prices relatively flat to last year, only 5% higher than a year ago levels.
9. Consumer Confidence Index was only 48 but that’s actually up over last year’s worst ever index of 38.  While an important measure of how consumers feel about the economy, it has historically not been a good predictor of retail sales in October.  It is a very significant measure from December to March.
10. Retailers are up against a very easy October last year when retail same-store sales were the worst ever at -4.2% according to the International Council of Shopping Centers.

So in this case, the weather report really does belong on the financial page this Thursday!  The news for November may not be as good as seasonal sales were cannibalized into late September and October.  The regional summary chart below shows the weather trends across 8 U.S. regions with the Southeast having the least favorable conditions for cold seasonal merchandise.

U.S. October 2009 Summary Report

U.K. October 2009 Summary Report

G-20 UPDATE:  The G-20 country showing the greatest change toward much warmer weather was the U.K. with a +1.6C warmer month than last year with 28% less rainfall.  Mild and dry extends the garden season but a big negative for Autumn category sales.  Russia by far showed the coldest trends with -2.8C colder conditions than LY with 53% more precipitation.  The map below shows global October temperatures this October 2009 vs 2008.

G-20 October 2009 Summary Report