After 4 seasons, 13 trophies and hours upon days of exquisite football, Pep Guardiola has decided that a change is best for both himself and Barcelona. Coming directly on the heels of being eliminated from the Champions League by Chelsea and from the Spanish title race by arch-rival Real Madrid, it’s hard to not see this as an emotional reaction. Given Guardiola’s calm, poised approach though, it’s unlikely to be so reactionary. The rumours had started months ago that he may seek another project and now that time has come. Cue the Chelsea and Manchester City rumours!

Watch Guardiola’s press conference

Image courtesy of Flickr user mazzi (http://www.flickr.com/photos/mazzi/) 

This season’s version of Europe’s most prestigious club competition has thrown up surprises and shocks along the way, with a number of sides in the last eight exceeding expectations and defying Champions League odds (read: what is sports betting?).. However, the usual suspects and biggest teams in Europe remain, with four mouth-watering ties having their first legs played this week.

APOEL vs. Real Madrid

This tie arguable epitomises what the Champions League is all about; David vs. Goliath, minnow vs. superpower. The Cypriot champions have delighted their fans with a fantastic showing this term, becoming the first side from their country to make the knockout rounds and beating some strong sides, including Lyon and Porto, along the way.

However, their opponents in the last eight are quite the step up. Real Madrid have been in scintillating form this campaign, lead the Primera Division and are unbeaten in this year’s tournament. Jose Mourinho has the experience of winning this competition with two other clubs, and with a masterfully in-form Cristiano Ronaldo in Los Blancos’ line-up, Madrid have every chance of glory this year.

Benfica vs. Chelsea

A tie between two very-evenly matched sides, Chelsea will go in as favourites but not by much. The Portuguese side have been markedly better this term, and eliminated Manchester United in the group stages. With the likes of Javi Garcia, Axel Witsel and Nicolas Gaitan in a youthful and exciting midfield, Jorge Jesus’ men will look to get ahead in the first leg at the Estadio da Luz.

Chelsea staged a remarkable comeback to overturn a 3-1 first leg defeat to Napoli in the last 16, and now must be considered as challengers. Roberto Di Matteo has sparked a bit of life in his seasoned squad, and if the English side can deal with a hostile reception in the first leg, will be confident of progression.

Marseille vs. Bayern Munich

Both Marseille and Bayern Munich have been inconsistent this term, with lacklustre domestic campaigns being redeemed by the progress on the continent. Didier Deschamps’ men played well to eliminate Inter in the last round, but have lost seven out of their last eight games in a terrible run of form; to stand a chance in this tie they must recapture some form and resolve.

Bayern started out of the blocks at a lightning pace this term and dominated the ‘group of death’, knocking out Manchester City in the process, but have stalled in 2012. With Dortmund looking odds-on to retain their Bundesliga crown, the Bavarians are desperate for glory in Europe. Much is expected of Jupp Heynckes men this term, especially given that the final is at the Allianz Arena.

AC Milan vs. Barcelona

Arguably the tie of the round, Italy and Spain’s champions go head-to-head. These teams met in the group stages, with a 2-2 draw at the Camp Nou leading to a 3-2 Catalan victory at the San Siro. Milan are one of only a few sides that may be able to stop Pep Guardiola’s men from winning this year’s trophy. Zlatan Ibrahimovic is in form and will be motivated to beat his former employers, but Massimiliano Allegri’s side will need to win the first leg at home to give themselves a fighting chance.

Barcelona are lagging behind El Clasico rivals Real Madrid in La Liga, but the Blaugrana have kicked into form recently, and have won their last nine games in a row in all competitions. Ballon d’Or holder Lionel Messi is in ominous form, becoming the club’s top all-time goalscorer in past weeks; the Argentine seems to deliver in all the biggest games, and no team has managed to figure out a way of nullifying him as yet.

If you could pick the greatest ever Champions League XI, who would be on your team and why? Since it’s formation in 1992, the Chanpions League has seen so many great players competing in the UEFA tournament, some of the greatest names in the modern history of the sport.

But if you had to narrow them down to eleven players, no matter how difficult the task may be, who would you pick?

Here’s the XI according to The Football Daily.

Another chapter of the Lionel Messi legacy was last night etched into history. The mercurial Argentine became the first player to score five goals in a Champions League match, helping Barcelona to a 7-1 second leg victory over a less than inspired Leverkusen side. While Arsenal put on a master class in how to over-turn a first leg deficit, Leverkusen showed us exactly how you do not go about it.

Barcelona had already amassed a 3-1 advantage from the first leg, leaving the German outfit with nothing but a shoestring of hope to hold onto for their trip to the Camp Nous. Leverkusen turned up and did little more. They were void of belief and overly conservative. Barcelonas passing in the opening minutes of the game was short of their fabled best, but this did not seem to encourage Leverkusen in the slightest. They had adopted a rigid 4-4-1-1 shape from the outset and were consistently out flanked by Barcelonas marauding wingbacks.

While I am sure the news of Michael Ballacks absence in particular hurt the Leverkusen cause, what exactly did they have to lose? Their attempts to close the space between the midfield and defence often ended up in a slightly askew line of eight that did nothing but give space to Xavi to launch calculated passes into the space behind. Lionel Messi moved majestically from attack to midfield and back, leaving the Germans unsure about his position at any given moment.

When Barcelona and Messi are on their day, there is little the majority of clubs can do to stop them. Messi was in a record-breaking mood last night, no doubt spurred on by his first international hat trick last week for Argentina. Recently certain coaches in Spain seem to have adopted an academic approach, when it comes to handling Barcelona. Some of these approaches have even been vaguely successful. Emerys’ Valencia started two defensively minded left sided players in order to halt the runs of Dani Alves. In turn, this threw Barcelona off their axis and Valencia managed to gain a lead twice before eventually drawing. The failure came when Valencia simply did not have enough depth to respond when Gaurdiola eventually did tweak the formula. Bielsa flooded the pitch when his Bilbao side faced them. He then abandoned shape in favour of a rigid man marking system and again the result was a draw. Jose Mourinho has probably used up countless notebooks devising strategies to deal with Guardiolas men and has had mixed results against them.

The point is that in Spain they have made an effort to find a solution, to what Sir Alex Ferguson has dubbed “everyone’s problem”. Some have been successful though most have not. Leverkusen attempted to save face here and probably got what they deserved in the end. At best, Leverkusen showed a faux pragmatic approach and never even looked like they intended on attempting to get back into the tie. Their central midfield duo of Rolfes and Bender were guilty of siting too deep and isolating the forward line. Deploying a nonsensical conservative strategy is certainly not going to plunder three away goals against a side as good at retaining possession as Barcelona are. I am not saying that Leverkusen could have won this tie, but they could at least have tried. Even before the kick-off it was Barcelona who lined up as the team that were about to force the issue. Their defence took position within three bands of grass of the half way line. All of the factors that made Arsenals endeavours so attractive the night before were completely bereft of this Leverkusen side. If they were due a report card on their performance here that familiar, “must try harder,” line would certainly come into play.

Anyone partial to a football fairytale would have been holding their breath on every intricate movement of the ball at the Emirates Stadium last night. Arsenal, part libertine poet, part philosopher, played with all the verve and reason of old. Theo Walcott started to waltz through the Milan defence, with clarity of thought that he has rarely shown in the past. Tomas Rosicky finally started to cut a defence open. For the first time in years he has started to look like the player that had pundits drooling over the bargain he seemed to be when he first arrived from Dortmund. Alex Song marshalled the midfield like a one-man foot soldier cleaning up the debris of a previous blitzkrieg, and the whole thing would start again.

Once Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain was bundled to the ground, everyone knew what was coming next. Robin van Persie does not have to be invited into the scoring realm anymore. At half time, the nightmare of the San Siro seemed long forgotten. AC Milan’s lead was reduced to one goal and Mark van Bommell even saw fit to get himself booked early on. Arsenal really looked to be on course.

Enter the second half. Van Persie started to drift and control the game. His movement became sublime and we were shown just why Barcelona is interested in the Dutchman. When the ball broke for Gervinho on the left, you know he probably wouldn’t score. Christian Abbiati could only parry a deflected effort and it fell to RVP. Shockingly he didn’t oblige either and you began to feel that tension you get when a good thriller writer starts his novel’s twist. Fatigue had begun to set in as the usually ever reliant Song started to misplace simple passes.

When the final whistle went, and Arsenal fell just short, there was only one thing that sprang to mind. Since the departure of Cesc Fabregas, Arsenal has been just that, just short of the force of old. Financially they are about as real as a club can get, but the on-the-pitch endeavours are falling far short for their sensibility. The troubling thought is that they are right. Is there any club out there that is being run realistically? Real Madrid’s financial muscle has mainly been the product of a training field sale. Man City is bankrolled by billionaire group that view football as a hobby.

On the inception of the Scottish league, Queens Park originally declined membership. They cited that the league format and competitive nature was potentially harmful to the game itself. Queens Park is still an amateur club today and the only one in the Scottish leagues.  They have turned out to be largely right to have their concerns at the time. With Arsenal fans are growing impatient, it may well be that they are staring at the blueprint for a sustainable club. Baring the influx of billionaires that have nothing to do with their money but splash it on bragging rights, clubs could do a lot worse than follow the Arsenal mould.

The Champions League this season is likely to end up being a shout between Barcelona and Real Madrid. Barcelona is simply the best run club in the world right now but they also have their own financial worries. It is becoming increasingly difficult to compete in the business of football. The sudden transfer market traumas have left stupid prices on any player showing a glimpse of talent. With the introduction of glory-seeking billionaires, the business was turned upside down. For these men it is not about financial gain. It makes it increasingly difficult to maintain a profit and be competitive when some of your competitors are happy to make obscene losses in order to be competitive.

It is sad that money is ruling a game that was once seen as the pinnacle of gentlemans’ amateur sport. Arsenal will have a tough task in keeping van Persie at the Emirates this summer. All the financial evidence is currently pointing to a sale. They are in essence being punished for trying to do the right thing. As for the Champions League exit , it is only fair to compliment them for once again appealing to the game’s innocent roots.

For years the Premier League has been branded as the “best” league in modern day football. Yet as this season has shown, this statement can no longer be the case. The abject failure of many English clubs in Europe has totally transformed the myth and the reality is something altogether different.

Take Manchester United, the undisputed kingpins of the Premier League era, how many times have they prospered in Europe’s premier competition during this period? Only twice! For a side which has won twelve league titles this fact is curious to say the least. Perhaps the Premier League was always more of a brand than being actually competitive on the European stage. Certainly, I cherish the excitement that the league produces on a weekly basis; however for the same pundits to consistently label the league as outstanding is remarkable.

Games such as the Arsenal-Spurs game last Sunday evoke pleasure in even the most timid of football fans, yet quality wise the game was sorely lacking in this respect. Maybe, the necessity for quality has been discarded and replaced by the need for excitement but if this is so are these clubs doing themselves justice? Take Napoli Chelsea, the tie while not over looks to be in a perilous state from a Chelsea perspective, would their supporters wish to be involved in six goal thrillers with Man Utd at the Bridge or keeping clean sheets in Europe and progressing to the latter stages. The biggest disappointment of all the English teams has been Manchester United!

For a manager who has enjoyed so much success, Sir Alex’s tactics in Europe are constantly being outmanoeuvred by opposition coaches. His failure to win more Champions League titles during his tenure is a damning indictment on not only his tactical nous, but also it is systematic of the lack of quality present in the Premier League. The arrival of foreign players into the country was lauded and rightly so, but the standard of domestic players has never progressed to any notable extent during this period. The Premier League brings more joy to households than perhaps any other league in the world, however its insistence on marketing itself as the ‘’best’’ has essentially become laughable.

Too often today players a built up in the league after only a few good games and made out to be world beaters when anything couldn’t be further from the truth. The so called’’ golden generation’’ of English players that dined at the top table of English football, while good players were certainly not great players. Perhaps the biggest indictment of English football has been the actual world class players who have come to the Premier League in their prime? Zidane, Figo, and Raul all these superstars of the modern era would never have contemplated coming to the league as standard wise it isn’t the best. The best player of the last ten years in the Premier League Ronaldo will unquestionably reach his peak in Spain. Will we ever see a Messi playing in the league that we all love? I would love to say yes, but historically speaking the chances are he will ply his trade elsewhere. Until the Premier League realises that it needs to become more skilful the English clubs will suffer on the European stage and we will never see any of the truly great players playing every weekend in England.

Amid a torrid run of form, player backlash and the famed “backing” of a trigger happy owner, the following month could be make or break for Chelsea boss Andre Villas-Boas

Every manager goes through it. A run of important fixtures that can ultimately decide a team’s season. It’s around this time of the year too. Games of all sorts, league, cup clashes and European endeavours start to creep its way in the calendar. Chelsea’s period starts now and it has all the problems, issues and pressures the size of an iceberg. And it could be a very important period for one man — manager Andre Villas-Boas.

This is no exaggeration. Villas-Boas is under intense pressure to lift the Blues, who have fallen on very hard times. They sit fifth on the table, behind Arsenal on goals scored, in the chase of the Champions League final spot. It’s not that the Blues are out of the hunt, far from it, but it’s their recent form that has brought this unwanted pressure on the team. Two wins from their last 10 league games says it’s all. And that’s not even near the tip of the iceberg.

The rumour mill has started to swirl with talk that former Chelsea maestro manager Jose Mourinho could make a sensational return to Premier League next season; with the destination being Stamford Bridge. It might just be the gossip and talk, but it’s an unwanted cloud hanging over Villas-Boas’ head. The rumours instil an uncertainty in the works of Villas-Boas who is having trouble to implement his own style, a high pressuring, possession based game, in an very Mourinho moulded team. Added to the fact that FC Porto President Da Pinto points out that “there are players who exchange text messages with Mourinho”, and more worrying that “Abramovich knows this”, which surely undermines the Chelsea’s managers work in constructing his own team. And that’s not even the tip of the iceberg.

After Saturday’s 2-0 defeat to Everton, Villas-Boas was confronted by senior players in a heated exchanged the day after the game. The players expressed their doubts about Villas-Boas’ ability and skill to take the club forward. Villas-Boas even admitted that “They [the players] don’t have to back my project”. Difficult enough to implement and construct a team with a blend of both old players tied to old ways and new signings. More difficult if those players don’t believe in the project themselves. Villas-Boas has had problems to instil his new style, forcing himself to slowly go back in the Mourinho mode (defending deep and countering) at times during the season, but there’s always been that effort to change the formula. If the players don’t believe it, it’s more of a problem. And that still isn’t the tip of the iceberg.

Villas-Boas’ respond to his players’ outburst was that, “My authority is total because it’s the owner’s authority” and “It’s the owner who backs my project”. This is the same owner who fired Mourinho for playing too “pragmatic”; who sacked Avram Grant despite him leading the club to final of Champions League after the departure of the ‘special one’; the same owner who sacked Carlo Ancelottli,even though he lead the team to ‘double’ in his first season. So what’s the chance of Abramovich keeping Villas-Boas around if he can’t satisfy the owner’s needs of a trophy and European competition? Villas-Boas has said that “It is a relationship that is perfect at the moment”. How many times have we heard that before? Tip of the iceberg?

No, that’s not the tip of the large iceberg. All those problems and pressures that Villas-Boas is facing is merely the ground work leading to the tip of the iceberg: the “make or break” period that is steering straight at Villas-Boas. Over the course of the next few weeks, Chelsea have an important FA Cup replay; their Champions League ties against Napoli and a host of Premier League teams fighting against relegation in Bolton, West Brom, Stoke then an double header of Manchester City and Tottenham.

A couple of bad results in the League and could struggled to get fourth place in what is turning out be a four-way battle including Arsenal, Liverpool and Newcastle. Failure to continue in the FA Cup might results in more disastrous outcomes; not to mention if they fail to beat Napoli. This on top of backing of a trigger happy owner, a revolting group of players and persisted rumours of replacement. Villas-Boas has never been in a more intense situation before in his short managerial career. Best bet to get those results and fast.

Going into the Champions League group stages, there were likely a great deal of football bets placed on Premier League powerhouses Manchester United and Manchester City reaching the round of 16. But after flubbing a group that appeared to be a relative stroll, United are now looking ahead to the Europa League, and their archrivals are doing the same.

While United on Thursday nights is an unfamiliar sight, there will also be some new faces when the Champions League resumes in February, as APOEL Nicosia, FC Basel, Napoli, and Zenit St. Petersburg are all in the last 16. Will any of those upstarts advance to the quarters, or will the big boys all take care of business?

APOEL Nicosia v. Lyon

The little Cypriots that could not only shocked their way into the round of 16, they did it as group winners, as they finished top of a Group H that included three quality sides in FC Porto, Shakhtar Donetsk, and Zenit St. Petersburg.

But after becoming the first Cypriot side to reach the knockout stages of the Champions League, can they go one step further and reach the quarterfinals? Unfortunately, this is where the story is likely to end.

Lyon only qualified thanks to two perfect results on the final matchday, but their six-goal second half in their crucial 7-1 win at Dinamo Zagreb shows just what they’re capable of when they’re at their best, and it’s easy to understand why they’d be favored to win this tie, even with the potential disadvantage of a second leg away from home.

However, picking against APOEL is a risky endeavor. They defied the odds throughout the group stage on the way to doing what no one expected, so there’s no doubt that they’ll be confident about their chances to shock the football world once again.

Arsenal v. AC Milan

This is the most difficult draw that Arsenal could have been given, but the Gunners will fancy their chances to take down the Italian champions.

AC Milan started the group stage with an impressive 2-2 draw at Barcelona, but they weren’t particularly impressive the rest of the way and ultimately finished seven points back of Barca. But they’re an extremely talented team and are capable of sending Arsenal packing, especially if Zlatan Ibrahimovic can come up big.

But the Gunners have had a lot of success against Italian opposition recently, knocking out Juventus in the quarterfinals in 2006, Milan in the round of 16 in 2008, and Roma in the round of 16 in 2009. It will likely be a tight encounter, but Arsenal should go through, especially with the second leg at home.

Barcelona v. Bayer Leverkusen

Will the reigning European champions be seriously threatened in the round of 16? It’s entirely possible, but it’s hard to see anything other than a Barcelona win.

The first leg could be troublesome, however, given that Leverkusen did defeat Chelsea and Valencia at home in the group stage. But even if the Bundesliga side take an advantage into the second leg, it’d take a Herculean performance to withstand the onslaught that’d come at the Nou Camp.

Bayern Munich v. FC Basel

FC Basel bested Manchester United in the group stage; can they pull another momentous upset in the first knockout round appearance?

Experienced Basel strikers Alexander Frei and Marco Streller both played in the Bundesliga and will be relishing this showdown, and both could cause some real problems, along with rising star Xherdan Shaqiri.

But Bayern will have a fit Bastian Schweinsteiger by the time this tie rolls around, and his presence will be key to their progression. Bayern would still be favored to advance even if Schweini wasn’t available, but given the form he was in prior to fracturing his clavicle against Napoli in November, his return will make Bayern even harder to beat.

Benfica v. Zenit St. Petersburg

Benfica finished top of the group that included Manchester United, and they’ll be glad to have avoided AC Milan, Napoli, or even perhaps Lyon in the round of 16 draw.

However, they haven’t been spared a tough draw in the least, and it wouldn’t be a shock to see Zenit triumph in this tie. Zenit may be new to this stage, but they have all the ingredients to get it done. The Russian side won’t be easy to dispatch at home, and they aren’t short on quality, led by the Portuguese duo of Danny and Bruno Alves and star forwards Alexander Kerzhakov and Danko Lazovic.

But Zenit’s league campaign doesn’t resume until days before the second leg of this tie, and that could mean that they may not be at peak sharpness, and for that reason, the edge in this matchup lies with Benfica.

Chelsea v. Napoli

Chelsea managed to miss AC Milan, but they landed perhaps the second toughest draw in Napoli, who beat out Manchester City for second place in a tough Group A.

With the likes of Edinson Cavani, Marek Hamsik, and Ezequiel Lavezzi, who could all be in the Premier League at some point in the near future, Napoli will really test Chelsea’s defense, and their own back line, while prone to some bad spells, did hold prolific City to only two goals in 180 minutes.

But Chelsea’s vast experience at this stage is a valuable asset to have, and it’s hard to bet against them. The Blues have had some uncharacteristic struggles at Stamford Bridge this season, but there are still few places in Europe that are as tough or tougher, and if Chelsea are on top of their game, they‘ll take full advantage of Napoli’s European inexperience.

Inter Milan v. Marseille

There’s no telling what kind of shape Inter will be in come February, but they appear to be surging at the moment. That means they could be in top gear when they face Marseille, and if they are, the French side could be in for a world of hurt.

For all the talent that Marseille have, with the Ayew brothers, Lucho Gonzalez, Loic Remy, and Mathieu Valbuena, it’s tough to see them springing a surprise. But their dramatic comeback against Dortmund, which sealed their qualification ahead of Olympiakos, could spur them on, and remember what unheralded Schalke did to Inter in the quarterfinals last season?

But it might be safe to say that Inter won’t have forgotten last year’s embarrassment against Schalke and thusly won’t be overconfident heading into this tie, and if they are indeed in top gear, Marseille could be dispatched with relative ease.

Real Madrid v. CSKA Moscow

Real should join rivals Barcelona in the Champions League quarterfinals, but it might take a lot more work than many might expect.

CSKA, who finished second in Group B behind Inter Milan, are not to be taken lightly. Real’s attacking prowess is anything but a secret, but CSKA have the firepower to make things very interesting. Striker Seydou Doumbia has been scoring for fun, and while he still appears to be a little under the radar, good performances against Real could be a springboard for a big move. And along with a few well-known names in Brazilian striker Vagner Love and midfielders Keisuke Honda and Zoran Tosic, CSKA have a highly, highly promising playmaker in midfielder Alan Dzagoev. But for all of the attacking talent they possess, they also possess one of the world’s top shot-stoppers in Igor Akinfeev, and he’ll have to contend with a flurry of shots in both legs.

But CSKA could suffer from the same lack of sharpness that Zenit could, so even if they’re able to push Real for a while, Ronaldo and co. will prove much too strong in the end.

Photo by nikefutebol

1. Manchester City will benefit from this experience

Regardless of the wealth spent on this team, this is City’s first outing in the Champions League. Only a handful of players in the squad have participated before in Europe’s elite competition. This season’s failure to make it past the group stage is all but a learning experience for the blue side of Manchester.

David Silva, Sergio Agüero, Joe Hart, Yaya Touré, Vincent Kompany and Mario Balotelli just to name a few will learn from this experience in which they have to hit the Group Stage hard and full of running. The slight mistake can result in the dropped points, unlike the Premier League with inferior opposition; the standard is obviously higher in Europe and you will be punished. They will all gain valuable lesson after this failed adventure.

2. United are a club in transition

Hard to say it, after United’s ‘raging bull’ start to the season, but last season’s Premier League Champions have shown over the course of the last two months that they are team going through the motions of transition. Alex Ferguson has thrown youth into the squad with little or no European experience and this in the long term has cost them. Injuries have played their part no doubt, that’s just football and Ferguson knows what happens during the long course of the season.

The center of midfield is where United need someone with extra bite and the back four needs consistency. Ferguson will need time to marshal the troops to form a formidable unit, but a United team in transition is still a dangerous prospect and shouldn’t be underestimated.

3. David Silva is what makes City click

There is no questioning Silva worth to City. He’s been the stand out player this season: setting up goals, providing that devastating link from the midfield to the front line and even getting the ball in the back of the net himself. However, it seems that there is a question of how valuable Silva really is for City. When he’s played, City has been unstoppable. He scored a sublime goal against Bayern and was instrumental in all their build up play. Obviously, it hasn’t been the first time he’s done this season. Mancini might have bought Samir Nasri to help cover for the Spaniard, but if they want to go all the way to the title, Silva has to be their man.

4. Manchester United need a world class central midfielder

If United had signed Wesley Sneijder from Inter Milan, like the tabloids had been reporting for over a year, you would have put your money on United making it through a relatively easy Group C. But he didn’t. This is where United have lost their bite and bark and it’s been quite clear to see that they aren’t the same as they were last season. Yes, Paul Scholes played less and less, but his experience, his leadership would of helped United in a situation like this. The young players would have learned from the man who’s been United’s pin in the center for over a decade.

The fact that Ferguson has to rely on 36 year old Ryan Giggs and youngster Tom Cleverly shows United are lacking personnel. Anderson doesn’t offer anything in terms of spark or creativity; Darren Fletcher is more suited to doing the grunt work; Phil Jones isn’t a central midfielder by nature and Michael Carrick has been off form for a while now. Signing a world class midfielder in January might be difficult, but its clear Ferguson will need to strengthen for next season.

Only two more rounds of the group stage of the Champions League remain, and for quite a few teams, that means the margin for error is slim to none.

Over the final two match days, there are a number of important games that will determine how things shake out. Several of Europe’s elite, like Barcelona and Bayern Munich, who boast the tournament’s leading scorers in Lionel Messi and Mario Gomez, are in favorable positions heading into their last two matches, but there are also a couple of notable few who still have some work to do to keep alive their quest to be the best. Champions League betting odds will favor the big names, without a doubt, but don’t discount the possibility of an upset or two… or more.

Group A

Bayern Munich are in the driver’s seat in Group A, and if things go according to form (and theirs has been very, very good this season), they’ll clinch at least a place in the round of 16 with a home win over disappointing Villarreal in their next match.

While Napoli are still mathematically in the hunt to win the group, Manchester City are the only real challenger to Bayern’s place at the top. However, City’s place in the final 16 is far from assured, because while they hold the edge over Napoli, that could change next week when the Premier League leaders visit the San Paolo.

Napoli notched an impressive 1-1 draw in Manchester, and not only would they end City’s hopes of winning the group if they go one better at home, but they would be favored to finish second. Napoli finish away to Villarreal, who won’t be playing for anything more than a spoiler role, while City host Bayern, who won’t be in the business of doing any favors even if they’ve got top spot all wrapped up already.

Group B

Inter may still barely have their heads above water in Serie A after digging themselves an early hole, but they’ve rounded into form in Europe and are set to go through to the round of 16 as group winners.

It’s only fitting that they could and should wrap up the group in their penultimate match away to Trabzonspor to show just how removed they are from September’s shock home defeat to the Turkish side, even if their domestic form is still lagging.

Trabzonspor may have picked up only two points since their stunning success at the San Siro, but they still have a chance to qualify for the round of 16. However, CSKA Moscow have a definite edge as of now, and a home win over bottom side Lille, combined with an Inter win in Turkey, will render the Russian’s side final match in Milan meaningless.

However, even if those results occur, Lille’s home tie against Trabzonspor on the final matchday would still be of great importance, as Lille, as surprisingly underwhelming as they’ve been in the group stage, would claim the Europa League consolation prize with a win. And if the reigning French champions can manage a positive result in Moscow, which won’t be easy, a win over Trabzonspor could put them in line for something more, if the result in Milan is in their favor.

Group C

Despite not looking particularly convincing thus far in the group stage, Manchester United find themselves in a familiar position as group favourites going into crunch time, which is usually when we see them at their best.

A win and a draw will do the trick, and you’d have to fancy them to do at least that, if not win both matches, but the road could be tricky. Next Tuesday, they host Benfica, who have yet to lose in any competition this season (19 matches, to date). Then United finish up with a trip to Basel, who stunningly overturned a 2-0 halftime deficit in a 3-3 draw at Old Trafford in September.

If Basel can win in Romania against Otelul Galati next week, they’ll go into their rematch with United still with a chance to win the group, so United won’t be able to sleepwalk through that one.

While Basel could go into that match with a chance to reach the round of 16 and reach it as group winners, Benfica are well-placed to advance even if they lose at Old Trafford. Their last match is in Lisbon against Otelul, who could well end up without a point to show for all of the toughness they’ve displayed to this point.

Considering how difficult they have been to put away, Basel will be making a monumental mistake if they go into next week’s tie with the resilient Romanians already looking ahead to their showdown with United.

Group D

Real Madrid, with four wins in four matches, have already secured a place in the round of 16, and Jose Mourinho’s side will seal top spot in Group D with a win next week at the Santiago Bernabeu against Dinamo Zagreb, who haven’t scored a goal yet, much less picked up a point.

But it looks likely that second spot will come down to the final match-day, and even though Ajax have the edge right now, it might not be a stretch to say that Lyon should be considered favourites to join Real in the knock-outs.

Lyon host Ajax next week, and with their impressive run of eight straight knock-out round appearances on the line, you’d have to favor the likelihood of them taking care of business in this crucial clash, especially when you also consider how formidable they are at home in Europe. In fact, since making their Champions League debut in the 2000/01 season, Lyon are 22-8-8 in group stage play, with five of those defeats coming in their first three appearances.

In the final round of matches, Ajax host Real, who will be eyeing the rare feat of a perfect group stage record, while Lyon will be away to Dinamo Zagreb, which won’t be an easy tie but is a markedly more favorable one than the one Ajax have to deal with.

Group E

Like Real Madrid and Lyon, Chelsea haven’t failed to make the Champions League round of 16 since the format changed in 2003. That looks almost certain to continue, but will the Blues go through as group winners as they’re accustomed to?

That’s not a certainty, as they face a testy trip to Bayer Leverkusen before finishing up at Stamford Bridge against Valencia, who, provided they take care of business at home against Genk next week, will head to London still with a chance to reach the last 16.

As of now, Leverkusen are the favorites to join Chelsea in moving on, but could they be made to rue being unable to close out positive results in away matches against Chelsea (0-0 until the 67th minute) and Valencia (1-0 Leverkusen until the 65th)?

Leverkusen have been pretty up and down this season, but if the right Leverkusen side shows up against Chelsea next week, they’ll head into a very winnable finale away to Genk poised to take top spot. To nab it wouldn’t be a small feat, even if Chelsea are still trying to find their feet under Andre Villas-Boas.

Group F

Unless both sides absolutely fall flat in their last two matches, Arsenal and Marseille will be on their way to the round of 16, likely with the Gunners as group winners and the French side in second.

Arsene Wenger was made to rue starting Robin van Persie from the bench in their goalless home draw with Marseille last time out, with RVP not coming on until the 62nd in that match. But it’s highly unlikely Wenger will leave his best player – and one of the hottest scorers in the game right now – in either of Arsenal’s last two matches, a visit from Dortmund and an away tie against Olympiakos.

The Dortmund tie will be a real tests, since the reigning German champions are playing very well as of late and will be doing everything they can to maintain their slim round of 16 hopes, with Marseille coming to Signal Iduna Park in their group finale. A Dortmund win in that one is a good bet, with how strong – and I mean strong – Dortmund are at home.

But Dortmund will need to win at the Emirates next week for something more than a Europa League place to be on the line when Marseille come to town next month.

As for Olympiakos, they still technically have a chance to win the group, but the best they’re going to do, barring a miracle, is third. If it happens to come down to a head-to-head tiebreaker, the Greek champions would have the edge, though Dortmund certainly aren’t resigning themselves to a place in the Europa League just yet.

Group G

Bayern Munich, Inter Milan, Manchester United, Real Madrid, Chelsea, Arsenal, APOEL Nicosia, Barcelona. Which one of these is not like the rest?

The favorites are sitting atop every group except for Group G, where an unfancied side from Cyprus has well and truly upset the applecart thus far with a surprising and unexpected unbeaten run.

But can they seal the deal and join the best of the best in the last 16? Zenit might be poised to take top spot from them, as they host the group leaders next week, but even with a defeat in Russia, APOEL will have reason to feel confident about their chances to win the group, as they host Shakhtar in the final round of matches, whereas Zenit are away to Porto.

For what it’s worth, don’t sleep on Porto, as disappointing as they’ve been to this point. They’re still a very talented bunch, and an away win against Shakhtar could turn the tide in their favor. It looks like two wins are a must for Porto, which won’t be easy, but if they can produce two quality performances, those two wins – and perhaps a group win – could be on the cards.

Amazingly enough though, Shakhtar can’t be dismissed as a threat either. If they beat Porto, they’ll be in a position where they could wind up second with a win over APOEL… who could end up dropping into the Europa League if they lose both remaining matches.

But unlike most of the other groups, it’s absolutely impossible to predict what will happen in Group G, due to the several surprising results we’ve seen to this point.

Group H

It’s already been confirmed that Barcelona and AC Milan will be the top two from this group, but what will the final order be?

Milan allowed a second-half equalizer in a 1-1 draw against BATE Borisov in their last group match, which means that they’ll need to beat Barcelona at the San Siro next week in order to have a chance to win the group.

That’s certainly possible, since they did draw 2-2 in Nou Camp after all, but if the best they can manage is a draw, they’ll not only need to defeat Viktoria Plzen in their final match, they’ll need to hope that BATE miraculously pulls off a win at Barca. So, in other words, AC Milan need to win next week.

Wouldn’t it be fitting if Zlatan Ibrahimovic, lover of all things Barcelona, scored the winning goal for AC Milan?

As for third and the Europa League spot that comes with it, BATE will definitely claim it if they beat Viktoria Plzen next week in Minsk, but avoiding defeat will all but wrap it up, unless the Czech side somehow pulled the upset and defeated AC Milan in their group finale in Prague. Anything can happen, but…