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Amazon seller registration | Start selling in your area

2022-01-16T12:17:00.001+05:30

Have you been selling for quite a while? Would you like to have a potential for success at expanding your deals in your space? Assuming this is the case, then, at that point, sending off an internet based store could be the response. The internet shopping scene is difficult, yet we can take care of you. Here are a few valid justifications why you should enroll with us.

• Loads of rivalry between online commercial centers

• Immersed item showcases

• Purchasers need more comfort

Individuals favor shopping on the web since it's advantageous, basic, and super quick and there are many decisions accessible. Selling on the web can prompt a ton of beneficial things. You get more clients by extending deals outside of your physical store. You can even further develop how your item is introduced.

Those are the benefits for the purchaser. However, did you had at least some idea that a merchant can help the same way? You can anticipate sure in addition to focuses when you register as a vender on Amazon. Assuming that you have things prepared for procurement, this moment is maybe the best opportunity to sell it on the web. Before that, you have another critical choice to make - picking an eCommerce commercial center or building your own store.

Be a piece of an internet based commercial center

We can give you a few thoughts on utilizing a web-based commercial center. It is possibly, the simplest choice. The enlistment cycle is exceptionally straightforward, and you can start deals as fast as could be expected. Here are a few justifications for why it could work for you!!

• Select through an easy to use and simple interaction, just by tapping on each progression.

• Insignificant reports needed for enrollment - and check is finished in a couple of days.

• No stresses over transportation - utilize our notorious Amazon marked boxes.

• You can save money on showcasing expenses and still approach a great many clients day by day.

Might it be said that you are anticipating beginning a discount or retail adventure? Then, at that point, selling on the web can be a quicker method for arriving at purchasers and complete deals targets.

Consider the web-based commercial center a virtual shopping center, where individuals from everywhere India have something available to be purchased.

Step by step instructions to enlist on Amazon

You start at the Amazon vender landing page, where you have the choice of joining as a dealer by giving some data about you, your thing, your business. All information entered in by you will be checked by us during the enlistment interaction.

A portion of the individual information that should be given by you and confirmed by us during our merchant enrollment process include:

• Telephone Number

• Name

• Email ID

• Street number - this will be utilized as a pickup address

• Item classes that fit your advantage or thing

• Reports for enlisting your business

• Reports for enlisting charge data

When you have every one of the important reports, sign on our site here to start this cycle. Here is our definitive aide on the best way to enroll as a vender on Amazon.

• Click on the button that says 'Begin Selling'.

• Next you need to login utilizing your current Amazon account. On the off chance that not, then, at that point, you should make another record.

• In the wake of signing in, confirm your telephone number with the gave OTP.

Dealer and Business Information

• Next is the Seller Information page where you enlighten us regarding your store name, pick your essential item classification and enter in a location.

• Subsequent to tapping on 'Submit' you will be given more choices to get WhatsApp warnings, a check expressing that your pin code is qualified for Amazon Easy boat office.

• Both are discretionary and you can enter in a substitute location now.

Vender Accounts Verification

• Click on 'Next' and you are made to a Two-Stride Verification account security convention.

• Here can pick either your favored 2SV authenticator mode - telephone number, SMS, voice conveyance or calls or an Authenticator App.

• Click on 'Proceed' to finish this confirmation step.

• Presently you are shown a self improvement guide for 'Heritage gadget Sign-In technique' - follow the means assuming your gadget can't show a subsequent screen provoking you to enter the OTP.

• You might decide to smother future OTP challenges by choosing "Don't need OTP on this program".

Charge Details Updating

• First select the right choice - assuming that you have a GST number, sell in GST Exempted Category, have never enlisted for GST or have it helpful and will refresh later.

• Every choice gives you more data to assist you with choosing and you need to enter in your GST or PAN number as required.

The Seller Dashboard

• Here you can deal with your item posting, by transferring a record to add numerous items, add or eliminate classes, and see more on Amazon's Charges.

• Next change your Easy Ship charges, offer free transportation, or set an expense according to your inclination.

• Update your financial balance subtleties including account name, number, type and finish IFSC check.

• Enter in your duty subtleties which incorporate your PAN and GST.

• Set your default item charge code, this is utilized by Seller Central Account charge estimation framework to ascertain the assessment on the items or administrations a merchant records on the commercial center.

• Add your advanced mark by transferring in jpeg or jpg design picture or draw your mark on the screen and snap 'Affirm'.

Improving on internet selling

We comprehend your interests - is such a commercial center a decent counterpart for your organization? Would it have any effect on your deals or brand picture?

These advantages displayed here provide you with a thought of how business could be lighter, easier when you are on the web and how you might conceivably construct your marketing projections, independent of whether you are a new or experienced dealer.

To assist you with choosing, we have assembled an attitude toward what advantages you get subsequent to finishing your amazon vender enlistment. This covers significant focuses like transportation, returns, payout process, conveyance steps and item transfer.

• First you list your item on our site by transferring a few pictures of your item. You can add explicit item portrayals, benefits, utilization examples, and pictures taken from all points.

• Then, your item goes live on the site available to be purchased noticeable to purchasers searching for it.

• At the point when your item is bought by a client, you get a moment warning from Amazon to plan a reasonable planning for doorstep pickup of the said request.

• You accept your installment inside 7 working days from the date of delivery, saved into your enrolled financial balance.

• The purchasers will review your shipment at the hour of conveyance.

• Any returned item will be conveyed to you inside 2-4 working days with no additional charges.

• In the event of misfortune or harm to your item, you will accept your business continues from Amazon, regardless of whether Amazon or the purchaser is liable for it.

• You get to post Ads (cost-per-click). More deeply study Amazon's Sponsored Products here.

What are the costs you should bear?

Venders are relied upon to pay a Shipping Fee, however solely after the said thing is sold from Amazon.in. Alongside that, you should pay a Selling Fee, what begins at 3% per thing sold. This rate shifts relying upon the classification of the thing. Study the expenses here.

Presently you have an unmistakable thought of how a deal happens once you register as a vender on Amazon, and the drawn out gains coming up for your business. Assuming you feel this is the most ideal decision for yourself as well as your organization, then, at that point, you need to enlist with us.

At last, click on the tab that says 'Send off your business' and begin selling. Go ahead and visit our assistance place for any further help.

1.000.000$ With Google In 6 Months

2022-01-03T11:50:00.003+05:30

Summary:

Learn how you can make great money with the internet's number 1, know Google

Adwords and Google Adsense programs.

Did you know?

That internet advertising revenues reached an estimated new record of $4.2 billion for the third quarter of 2006 and that the internet advertising market has been growing more than 30% for the last 4 consecutive years.

Google Adsense is revolutionizing the web, high school kids are making fortunesper month with Adsense paying their classes and helping their fathers paying the bills at home.

Lawyers and doctors gaved up their practices to make millions with Google.

Thanks to Google Adsense revenues the internet is growing faster each day, while Google is paying the bills webmasters create more quality websites with free content and utilities for everyone, websites that you look for when your cash flow is fading. People create websites just for make money with Adsense and this reason is reflecting on the web contributing to the fast growth of thousands of websites and ideas that born every day. When you use Adwords to promote your products you are sponsoring and broughting to life a new star rising website that can be a must value to the web.

That's why Google Adsense/Adwords programs are so great, because everybody wins,advertisers pay per click and make sales using Adwords, clicks and impressions are made by the Adsense publishers that receive compensation, it's a rollercoster that never stops so therefore it is unbeatable.

It's called "revenue sharing" and it's the most powerfull internet marketing tool you will ever find!

Thousands of people every day discover Adsense and start making money at home with their websites, they share the secret with others and when others make money everyone makes money, that's why I had the trouble to write and distribute this little article, to spread the good news and off course make my own fortune.

If you have a website and are looking for a serious income this is the perfect opportunity for you to grab, Adsense is the best money making program circulating on the web, one of the most well paid if not the number 1 and best of all it is real!

Join Google Adsense free and retire from your job in months, use Google Adwords to rise up your business and become a millionaire in the next year.

Let me show you the headline 1.000.000 in 6 months:

Besides the Adsense earnings and the Adwords traffic that you can generate you can also make big money referring others to the Adwords and Adsense programs,when they use the programs you get paid, well paid.

This is how the programs work, by own Google words:

"When an advertiser who signed up for Google AdWords through your referral spends $5.00 (in addition to the $5.00 sign-up fee) within 90 days of sign-up, you will be credited with $5.00. When that same advertiser spends $100.00 within 90 days of sign-up, you will be credited with an additional $40.00. If,in any 180-day period, you refer 20 advertisers who each spend more than $100.00 within 90 days of their respective sign-ups, you will be awarded a $600.00 bonus."

"When a publisher who signed up for Google AdSense through your referral earns $5.00 within 180 days of sign-up, you will be credited with $5.00. When that same publisher earns $100.00 within 180 days of sign-up and is eligible for payout, you will be credited with an additional $250.00. If, in any 180 day period, you refer 25 publishers who each earn more than $100.00 and are all eligible for payout, you will be awarded a $2,000.00 bonus."

Do I need to say anything else to convince you to sign up? I Don't think so.

Just do the math and you will find out the potential of your earnings, if you already know the programs you know what I'm talking about and have a better perspective, if you don't I tell you this, you can look but I guarantee that does not exist nothing else like it.

And don't worry, take it easy, take your time, it doesn't matter if you don't understand any of this, the only matter is that you have a website and want to make money with it, in the process you will discover how everything works and how tho succeed in your goals.That's for this and many other reasons that Google is and will be the internet's number 1 for many years to come!

Follow the path, become rich and make your dreams come true forever!!

#makemoney #google #adsense #adwords #affiliateprograms

How to Increase Your Site Traffic & Succeed With Your Affiliate Marketing Programs

2022-01-03T11:40:00.002+05:30

Summary:

As an affiliate, your main objective is to sell the products and services offered by your partner merchants. Unless you can do this, you can never hope to make a significant amount of money with affiliate marketing programs.

So how do you boost sales? All things being equal, you will need to increase your site traffic before you can experience more sales. By the law of averages, the more people are aware of the products you are offering, the more products you will sell.

Here are a few tips that can help you boost your site traffic:

1. Optimize for the search engines. The most successful sites on the internet are the most visible ones. Now there are various ways to achieve increased visibility on the internet, but the foremost method is that of search engine optimization. The details are too technical to discuss here, but the purpose of search engine optimization (SEO) is to help your site achieve higher rankings on the search engines. If you have used a search engine, you will notice that any particular keyword search will return thousands, if not millions of results. Most people will not bother to browse through all those results; they will prefer to look into the sites already displayed. Statistically speaking, the sites listed on the first results page will garner the highest amount of traffic, putting those sites in a better position to make money.

2. Joining internet directories. While internet directories are no longer as widely used as search engines, some people do use them. It is important that you do not overlook the potential customers that these directories can bring to your site. To join an internet directory, you will have to submit your site for approval, and you will be categorized accordingly.

3. Provide fresh content. Your site must continually be updated if you expect your visitors to keep coming back. Your site must have useful content, as well as tools that will help your target audience. Make your site as easy to navigate as possible, and be sure that your links work the way that they should. There is nothing that frustrates people more than a “broken” website, and once your site has been labeled as such, chances are slim that many people will want to come back.

4. Build an online community. In other words, build relationships with your potential customers. Make your visitors feel welcome and appreciated, and they are likely to come back. Be interested in solving their problems and they will thank you with their business.

Making your affiliate marketing program work is really not that much different from operating a traditional business. The only way you can keep your customers is to treat them right. The Japanese have a saying: The customer is God. As long as you treat your customers with respect and exert effort in trying to meet their needs, you will find that they will be more than willing to help you with yours.

Affiliate Marketing and Requesting Customer Support

As a webmaster, you are bound to run into problems. Even though you have spent a good amount of time learning the affiliate marketing trade, sooner or later you will run into some challenges that you will need help to resolve. Areas such as e-mail services, affiliate marketing software, and online services are often particularly troublesome.

Unfortunately, getting help is not often easy, even from your web host. But there are ways to make the process simpler for both sides. Here are some questions that you might consider before you call your service provider:

Who are you? This is a common problem. Many people report their problems without providing their personal information, such as their username. Unless the support team knows who you are, how do you expect them to solve your problem?

What is the problem? Be specific. Identify which product or service is not working properly. Keep in mind that you are just one of your web host’s customers. Unless you can pinpoint the problem, chances are pretty slim that you will receive appropriate and timely help.

What software are you using? Your web host’s support team will need information on the software you are using. For instance, they will ask you what type of system you are using in your computer. It is a well-known fact that certain applications do not work well on certain systems. Be sure to give any relevant details about the services or applications that you use.

When did the problem start? Identifying the time you became aware of the problem is important. If you have recently made any changes to your system and the problem appeared soon after, it is quite likely that particular change is the cause. Don’t withhold information from the support team; every bit of knowledge is crucial to identifying the source of difficulty.

What have you tried to fix the problem? If you have attempted to fix the problem yourself, be sure to include an account of your attempts in your report. Letting the support team know what you’ve already done will help them save time, and also make a more accurate diagnosis of what’s wrong.

Have you kept it simple? For security purposes, some support systems do not allow HTML display. To avoid having your e-mail intercepted, it is best to send your messages in plain text format.

Remember to be polite. Keep in mind that the support team is composed of human beings – they certainly will not appreciate if you maltreat them. Never insult them; never use profanity. If you want your problem to be resolved, it is better to hold your peace and act civilly. Despite what you may think, you are just one of their customers -- they reserve the right to discontinue their services to you whenever they like.

These pointers will not always get you the speedy service that you deserve, but they can certainly help.

Affiliate marketing is a difficult business enough without making enemies. By taking a little time to see things from your support team’s point of view, you can drastically improve the quality of service you get.

Top Five profitable product to sell online

2018-10-03T13:27:00.000+05:30

The digital age is upon us and there’s no avoiding it if you’re a business. The internet has simplified commerce to a point where it’s possible to buy, sell and market from anywhere on the planet. This simplification has unlocked a world of opportunities for entrepreneurs.

Of course, many of the hard-wired basics of business continue to hold true. For example: The first step to starting a business is to scour the marketplace and gain a deep understanding of market demand and capacity.

Similarly for online marketplaces the options of selling products online are many, it is difficult to zero-in on that one idea which will seal the deal for you. However, the trick is to choose one that peaks your interest and also has a sustainable demand with a healthy growth potential. Here’s a list of five popular product ideas to sell online:

Apparel, fashion accessories and footwear - It’s safe to say that apparel, accessories and footwear will always have a market. While the category is still one of the most popular in any e-commerce marketplace, it also offers unending niche opportunities. You can produce clothes that are meant for a particular body type or occasion, or accessories covered with topical statements. You could also branch into gender-neutral accessories and produce bags, wallets, sunglasses and belts, among others. Either way, whether it’s a one-size-fits-all pair of socks or a backpack emblazoned with a slogan, apparel, accessories and footwear can be your route to success, if you get it right.

Customised and handmade products – Customisation has become a popular trend among buyers. Customers love to be able to choose their preferred colour and style of jewellery, apparel, home decor products and more. Consider offering monograms or custom graphics on your products. This will add a unique, personalised touch to regular products.

Beauty and personal care products – The cosmetics and skincare industry for men and women is another fast-growing segment. Beauty products, grooming products, make-up, health and personal care items, all come in a vast variety of types and price ranges. Lately there has been a sizeable demand for organic and natural beauty care products. Cash in on this opportunity. Turn your customer’s demand into a successful business venture.

Electronics, appliances and accessories – Even if most customers walk into a bricks and mortar electronics store to touch and feel electronic products, nearly 43% end up purchasing them from large marketplaces like Amazon. The demand is huge and gadget enthusiasts usually want the latest model of everything, therefore the turnover is large. The most commonly sold products in this category are cameras, televisions, headphones, mobiles and its accessories, PCs and more. Start manufacturing, sourcing and selling products online to make the most of this.

Home and kitchen products – The online demand of this category has grown exponentially in the past few years. Thank the convenience of buying everyday staples with the click of a button and home delivery. Consumers can even automate recurring purchases that they need on a monthly or weekly basis. . Starting from basic grocery items like flour and sugar to detergents, cleaners, nuts, beverages and soap, covering all household staples.

Once you have figured out what to sell online, you need to find the right platform to sell. Amazon, with its wide range of seller support services can help you get started with selling your products online. With other incredible services like fast shipping, cash on delivery option, secure payments etc, Amazon also gives you the added benefit of a vast global customer base. So register with us as a seller and carve out your unique product niche today. Amazon seller account Creation

How To Sell On Amazon India | Sell with Amazon

2018-09-13T09:04:00.003+05:30

So many people want to sell on Amazon India and want to make a lot of money out of it but they don’t know how?

Documents required to Sell on Amazon India are:

pan card | GST number | Bank account |E-mail id | Mobile number

How to sell on Amazon India:

STEP 1. Click Now amazon sellercentral (use Desktop/Laptop for registration).
STEP 2. Create a new account, fill up all the details correctly. then click on create your Amazon India account.

STEP 3. write down your business name. tick on the agreement. then click on continue.

STEP 4. Now verify the phone number through OTP. now you will be moved to seller information section automatically.

Write down store name (store name should be unique).

choose a product category (you can change it later, you may choose more than one category). then fill the address detail correctly. (Amazon easy ship service is not available at every pin code, but Amazon gives you the option to choose any other 3rd party courier service if Amazon easy service is not available at your Pincode.In general it will cost you Rs. 40 for shipping product using courier service like blue dart, dtdc, indian post..etc..)

STEP 5. Now fill the tax detail. click on yes when asked for DO YOU HAVE GST. then continue.

Now, click on update it later if you don’t have GST number and PAN card yet.

if you have Both things then fill it up. then click on next, now you will come to another section.

STEP 6. SELLER INTERVIEW SECTION

Choose the category as per your business. tick on “where do you get product from” eg. if you are retailer then tick I RESELL PRODUCT THAT I BUY.

choose the annual turnover. then choose how many products you will sell.

Tick on whether you sell on another website or not.

STEP 7. DASHBOARD SECTION clicks on START LISTING

After that you can search any item and add it to your panel.

SET SHIPPING RATES.

Now adjust it according to yourself.

Now fill the bank details precisely. then fill the tax details.

PRODUCT TAX CODE:

It depends upon under which category your products come.

I have discussed it in more details in the below video

★A GEN_EXEMPT- for tax-free products

★A GEN_SUPERREDUCED- for 5% tax

★A GEN_REDUCED – for 12% tax

★A GEN_STANDARD- for 18% tax s

You may select "A GEN_STANDARD" TAX slab in general. >> Now click on SAVE.

Now upload YOUR SIGNATURE (Just Photo your signature Then upload). Then click on "LAUNCH YOUR BUSINESS".

Now from here, you can add the product from the catalogue. you can manage your products from inventory.

you can change and set prices for the product. in orders section, you can manage the orders, product that customer return.

In REPORTS section you can check your payment.

You can advertise your own product for increasing its sales. you can see how your business is performing from performance section.

NOW YOUR AMAZON SELLER INDIA ACCOUNT IS READY.

I hope you will now easily register on Amazon India and you don’t have any problem.

If you still have any problem then feel free to ask through comment.

Whatsap : 0953938-0003 / xplodkvk @ gmail. com

https://amzn.to/2NzqpWj

2018-09-12T11:22:00.005+05:30

https://amzn.to/2NzqpWj

Multi Bagger - Supreme Industries 21-08-2012

2012-08-21T12:38:00.001+05:30

NSE ID : SUPREMEIND

Supreme Industries manufactures a wide range of polymers products. The company manufactures products like Cross-Laminated Films, HMHD Films, Multilayer Films, SWR Piping Systems, PP Mats, moulded furniture, and many more.

The company has registered excellent numbers for the quarter ending June 2012. On consolidated basis, the company has posted a rise of 57.82% in its net profit at Rs 95.04 crore for the quarter ended June 30, 2012 as compared to Rs 60.22 crore for the same quarter in the previous year. Total income has increased by 23.77% at Rs 926.30 crore for quarter as compared to Rs 748.43 crore for the quarter ended June 30, 2011.

The Company envisages a total capital investment outlay in excess of about Rs.1100 Crores over a period of five years from 2011-12 to 2015-16 in addition to Capex for new products in Composites. During the financial year 2012-13, the Company intends to commit fresh investment of around Rs.200 Crores to augment the products produced at existing units and to initiate action to support green field projects.

Value breakup- Plastic Piping System for Q4FY12 stood at 475 crore whereas last year of 357 crore. Packaging Product 198 crore, last year was 165 crore. Industrial Product 151 crore, last year 137 crore and Consumer Product 82 crore, last year it was 75 crore. Volume breakup- Plastic Piping system 43,959 metric ton, vis-a-vis 35,462 last year. Packaging Products, 9,360 vis-a-vis 8,148 metric ton last year. Industrial Products 9,917 metric ton vis-a-vis 8,375 last year. And Consumer Product 5,025 metric tons vis-a-vis 5,008 metric ton last year.

Valuation With excellent fundamentals, robust growth across all product verticals and huge capex ahead, Supreme Industries Ltd. revenue visibility looks strong. We believe SPL is trading at an attractive valuation at 12.6x and 9.92x of FY13EPS of Rs.22.06 and FY14EPS of Rs.28.02. We initiate a 'BUY' on the stock with a target price of Rs.350 (appreciation of about 26%) with the long term investment horizon.

Research Report - Tata Power Company Ltd - Target Price: Rs.140

2012-07-29T20:16:00.002+05:30

Market Data

Price on reco. date (Rs)

105 (BSE)

CMP - BSE / NSE (Rs)

105 / 105

Change since reco.

0.0%

52-week High/Low (Rs)

133 / 81

NSE Symbol

TATAPOWER

BSE Code

500400

No. of shares

2373.0 m

Free float

68.3%

Market cap (Rs m)

249,165

Rs 100 invested is now worth

Stock price performance

	Tata Power	Index*

1-Yr	-23.1%	-7.7%

3-Yrs	-5.2%	4.8%

5-Yrs	9.4%	3.2%

Returns over 1 year are compounded annual averages * BSE Sensex

Shareholding (Mar-12)

Category	(%)

Promoters	31.7

Banks, MFs and FIs	26.5

FIIs	21.9

Indian public	15.5

Others	4.4

Total	100.0

Investment Rationale

UMPP losses no reason for despair: Blue chip stocks are known to resist economic downturns better than smaller peers. However, we have come across quite a few fallen angels over the past few months. Ones that displayed some uncertainty in fundaments especially invited investor fury. But nothing beats the pessimism that surrounds the power sector. Execution delays and fuel shortages were already factored into valuations. But some unforeseen charges that eroded the bottomline in FY12, caused investors to dump most stocks in the sector. That some of these are power sector players of repute with assured return profile did not console investors.
Tata Power is one such stock that has borne the brunt of not just sector risks but unexpected losses at the consolidated level. The 4,000 MW Mundra ultra mega power project (UMPP) being executed by subsidiary Coastal Gujarat Power Ltd (CGPL) incurred losses at the operating and net level in FY12. The losses are ascribed to the tariff structure under the UMPP’s power purchase agreement (PPA) and higher global coal prices. The tariff has an escalation clause for fixed costs and 45% of the total fuel costs. The project is an imported coal based plant that has a fuel supply agreement (FSA) with Indonesia's Bumi Resources (in which Tata Power has 30% stake) to supply 10.7 MTPA of its coal requirement. Earlier, 3.2 MTPA was to be supplied at a fixed price. However, Indonesian laws stipulated in September 2011 that coal produced in the country will be pegged to prevailing international prices. As per the management of Tata Power, with the revised fuel cost, the cost of power generated at the Mundra project is likely to be Rs 2.9 per kwh while the power purchase agreements (PPAs) have been signed with SEBs at Rs 2.26 per kwh. This was due to nearly 40% rise in international coal prices since the agreements were signed.
As a conservative measure, Tata Power has provided for a one time diminution in the value of investment in CGPL to the tune of Rs 18 bn in FY12. Also in order to protect CGPL's cash flows, the parent company will transfer 75% of its equity interest in Indonesian coal companies to the subsidiary. While some further near term losses in the Mundra project cannot be ruled out, we believe that the worst is over for Tata Power in this regard.

Notwithstanding the fact that Tata Power boasts of the maximum number of long term contracts in the power sector, the company also has sufficient upsides to its regulated returns (refer table 1). The interesting part is that unlike its peers, Tata Power does not have a very aggressive growth plan. With a turnaround in the UMPP business we believe that Tata Power's consolidated return ratios will see significant upsides in the next three years. Hence despite the possibility of some near term hiccups (our estimates and target price have been revised accordingly), we believe that investors have enough reasons to Hold on to a blue chip stock like Tata Power in their portfolio from a three year perspective.

Table 1: Upsides in the offing

Model	Capacity MW	% of total capacity	Type of returns	Contract (years)	Upside

Operational capacities

Regulated returns	2,552	55%	Fixed return on equity	Till FY18	PLF incentives

Regulated tariffs (renewables)	405	9%	Fixed tariff +PLF	Till FY21 - FY29	Savings on capex

Captive Power Plant	668	14%	PPA driven (14-19% RoE)	Till FY27 - FY41	Merchant sale + saving on PPA terms PLF incentive

Merchant	140	3%	Market driven	N.A	No cap on returns

MOU / Bilateral	20	1%	PPA driven	Till FY18	As per PPA

Others	881	18%	Bid driven		PLF incentives

Capacities under execution

Projects	Capacity	Completed	Power offtake		Fuel linkage

Mundra UMPP	4,000	92%	PPA driven	Signed for 3,800 MW	Imported coal

Maithon	1,050	95% completed	PPA driven	Signed for 1,050 MW	Coal linkaged

Dagacchu	126		Tata Power trading company		Hydro

Data source: Company presentation
Majority funding already arranged: The funding for the planned capex over the next 2 years of Rs 104 bn will take place in a debt to equity ratio of 70:30. This means that Tata Power would require Rs 33.2 bn of equity money. While 70% of this money will come through internal accruals, the company has already raised Rs 6 bn through an FCCB issue in FY11. This completes its equity funding for the said capex.
As for the debt requirement of Rs 70.8 bn (70% of Rs 104 bn), the company has already arranged 60% of the money through issue of hybrid securities and perpetual debt. In short, the company has already tied up a large part of its funding and is thus not likely to face any issue on this front.
Positive strides in related areas: Apart from its power generation plans, Tata Power is also progressing steadily in other related areas like power distribution, trading, and coal mining. Its distribution business in Delhi, North Delhi Power Limited (NDPL), where it has a 49% stake and Tata Sons has 2% stake, was the company's first venture in retail distribution outside Mumbai. NDPL is performing extremely well. In must be noted that at the time of privatisation of NDPL, the target for aggregate technical and commercial (AT&C) losses was set at 20% for FY09 (from levels of around 50% then). NDPL, under Tata Power, met the target ahead of schedule. The AT&C losses stood at just around 14% at the end of FY12.
Based on this success of NDPL, Tata Power applied for parallel distribution licenses in seven areas of MSEB (Maharashtra State Electricity Board) and also expressed interest in taking franchises in Gujarat for power distribution. In fact, in 2009 the Supreme Court allowed the company to supply power to its distribution arm, which holds a license in the lucrative Mumbai circle. Subsequent to that, the company has acquired over 1,00,000 retail customers in Mumbai, and has been resorting to buying spot power to service this customer base (the company is however fighting a legal battle against Reliance Infra, which is disputing Tata Power's license to supply directly to Mumbai consumers). Overall, the company is making positive moves towards establishing itself as a major player in the distribution segment. This we believe will contribute positively to its long-term growth.
Secured fuel supply: Despite some uncertainty over fuel supply from Indonesian coal mines (where it holds a 30% stake), Tata Power is reasonably secured as far as it's near term coal requirements are concerned. Further, it is also looking for mines in Australia, South Africa and South-East Asia to ensure fuel security for future projects. Besides the equity stake in the Indonesian coal mines, Tata Power also has stakes in two captive coal blocks in India. It has a 33% share in the 7.5 MTPA Mandakini coal block in Orissa. It plans to start coal production from these mines during this fiscal (FY12). The company also has a 40% stake translating into 2.3 MT in the 5.75 MT tubed coal block in Jharkhand. Tata Power has also tied up with Tata Steel for supply of coal to the captive power plants in Jojobera and Jamshedpur. We see these coal assets as holding tremendous importance for Tata Power, given the company's expansion plans.

Investment Concerns

Data source: Company presentation

Earnings sensitive to coal supply and prices: The Indonesian coal assets contributed to around 35% of Tata Power's consolidated revenue and 49% of consolidated profit (before interest and taxes) in FY12. This share increased from 33% and 44% respectively in FY11. The rise in coal prices in FY11 and FY12 boosted the contribution of the coal business to overall profitability and even shielded the margin pressures in the power business. Tata Power's overall profitability would have been in danger but for the buoyancy in coal business' margins. A high dependence on this business therefore makes the company's overall business sensitive to changes in coal prices, which have been very volatile over the past few years. While the coal prices for the Indonesian mines fell from US$ 78 per tonne in FY09 to US$ 60 in FY10, they again went up to as much as US$ 110 a tonne in FY12. This volatility in coal prices is of concern to us.
Further recent reports suggest that the Indonesian government may be looking to ban the exports of low-grade thermal coal by 2014. This move, if undertaken, could aggravate the coal supply shortfall in India.
Debt rating downgrade possible: International rating agency Moody's has recently threatened to downgrade Tata Power's corporate debt rating, primarily due to breaches in debt service coverage ratio related to the company's Mundra UMPP. The rating action, though not indicating payment default, could impact Tata Power's financial profile. However, changes to Mundra's tariff structure and transfer of 75% equity stake in the Indonesian coal mines to CGPL could thwart the rating downgrade risk.

Background

Data source: Company presentation

Tata Power is the largest private player in the power sector with a generation capacity of around 5,000 MW, which is around 20% of the total power generation capacity of the private sector in India. The Mumbai region constitutes around 85% of the company's power supply business. Apart from power generation, the company also has interest in areas like transmission and distribution, power trading, and coal mining. During the period between FY06 and FY12, Tata Power's consolidated sales and generation capacity grew at average annual rates of 29% and 12% respectively.

Key management personnel

Mr. Ratan Tata, Chairman, has been on the board of Tata Power since 1989. Mr Tata holds a B.Sc. (Architecture) degree with Structural Engineering from Cornell University, USA and has completed the Advanced Management Programme at Harvard University, USA.
Mr Cyrus Mistry, Deputy Chairman, joined the Board of Tata Sons in 2006 and was appointed Deputy Chairman in November 2011. He is a graduate of Civil Engineering from Imperial College, UK and has a M.Sc. in Management from London Business School. Prior to becoming deputy chairman of Tata group, he was the Managing Director of Shapoorji Pallonji Group since 1994.
Mr. S Ramakrishnan is the Director (Finance) of Tata Power since 2004. He graduated with a degree in mechanical engineering and has a post graduate degree in business management from IIM Ahmadabad. He served as Managing Director of Tata Teleservices Ltd at Tata Sons Limited since October 1999. He has been associated with the Tata Group for more than 30 years

Industry prospects

The Indian power sector has been characterised by peak power shortages, with demand of electricity exceeding supply by nearly 15% in terms of requirements. While the government had envisaged setting up around 62,000 MW (revised lower from 78,000 MW) of generation capacity during the eleventh five-year plan (2007-12), the actual implementation was around 55,000 MW. The capacity addition target for twelfth five-year plan (2012-17) is about 76,000 MW.
If the government intends to increase installed power generation capacity, it must also facilitate an expansion of the transmission network and inter-regional capacity to transmit power. Inter-regional transmission networks are required because power generation sources are unevenly distributed in India, and power needs to be carried over large distances from areas where power is generated to areas where load centers and demand exist.
With the strengthening of inter-regional connections during the Eleventh Plan, the inter-regional capacity has been enhanced from 13,700 MW to 37,150 MW. This shall facilitate transfer of power from surplus regions to deficit region.
However, the shortage of coal supplies (necessary fuel for power generators) is predicted to double to around 242 m tonnes (MT) in the five years to 2017. In response to this, a top government advisory body has proposed that the government should allow private firms to mine coal to plug supply shortages. At present, India does not permit commercial mining of coal by private firms. However, it allows power producers to access 'captive blocks' for their fuel needs. The country has 267 bn tonnes of coal reserves, of which 40% of these have been proven. But social and environmental issues have slowed down the pace of production.

Risk Analysis

Sector: Despite being the focal point of investments during consecutive 5 year plans, the power sector in India has had an appalling track record in terms of execution. Corporatisation of SEBs and linking profitability to the state government's plan outlay are likely to give some sort of fiscal strength to the key sector participants in the long run. We are enthused by the direction as opposed to the pace of progress, as this can be unpredictable. We are also wary of some short term concerns like shortage of coal supplies, poor health of state electricity boards (SEBs) and non revision of tariffs that are rendering projects unviable.
As per the Power Ministry's latest reports, coal shortages will force the newly commissioned power plants to operate at just 40% capacity. Important to note that power plants otherwise operate with a capacity utilization of 90%. During the 11th 5-year plan, just 89% of the targeted capacities were put up. But with the coal crisis mounting in the coming fiscals, the 12th 5-year plan (2012-17) power capacity additions may also be impacted. We assign a 'medium' risk rating to the sector.
Company standing: Tata Power is India's largest private sector power generator and has been more regular in expanding capacities than its peers. We assign a ‘strong' rating to the company on this parameter.
Sales: Tata Power generated average revenues to the tune of nearly US$ 3.3 bn per annum in the past five years. In the latest completed fiscal (FY12), the company generated consolidated net revenue of US$ 4.7 bn. Based on our parameters, we assign a low-risk rating of 9 to the stock.
Operating margin: Operating margin is a measurement of what proportion of a company's revenue is left over after paying for variable costs of production such as raw materials, wages, sales, marketing and administrative costs. A healthy operating margin is required for a company to be able to pay for its fixed costs, such as interest on debt. The higher the margin, the better it is for the company as it indicates its operating efficiency. Tata Power's average operating margins for the past five years has been around 22%. We assign a medium-risk rating of 6 to the stock on this factor.
Long term EPS growth: Tata Power grew its consolidated net profits at an average annual rate of 31% between FY06 to FY11. As we mentioned earlier the consolidated profits of FY12 were hurt by the losses of CGPL and a one time write off of investment in the subsidiary. However, we do not expect any additional write-offs going forward. As such, the rating assigned to the stock on this factor is 5.
Return on capital invested (ROIC): ROIC is an important tool to assess a company's potential to be a quality investment by determining how well the management is able to allocate capital into its operations for future growth. A ROIC of above 15% is considered decent for companies that are in a growth and expansion phase. Tata Power has earned an average ROIC of almost 11% over the past five years. The rating assigned on this parameter is 3.
Dividend payout: A stable dividend history inspires confidence in the management's intentions of rewarding shareholders. Tata Power's average payout ratio has been a healthy 18% over the past five years. Thus, we have assigned a medium-risk rating of 5.
Promoter holding: A larger share of promoter holding indicates the confidence of the people who run it. We believe that a greater than 40% promoter holding indicates safety for retail investors. At the end of March 2012, the promoter holding in Tata Power stood at 31.7%. We have assigned a medium-risk rating of 5 to the stock.
FII holding: We believe that FII holding of greater than 25% can lead to high volatility in the stock price. The FII holding in Tata Power at the end of March 2012 stood at 21.9%. The rating assigned is 5.
Liquidity: The average daily trading volumes of Tata Power's stock over the past 52-weeks stand at around 4.1 m shares (combined volumes of BSE and NSE). These are adequate and offer ample liquidity levels for a large cap stock. The rating assigned is 9.
Current ratio: Tata Power's average current ratio during the period FY07 to FY12 has been 1.3 times. This indicates that the company is comfortably placed to pay off its short-term obligations, which gives comfort to its lenders. We assign a medium-risk rating of 4.
Debt to equity ratio: A highly leveraged business is the first to get hit during times of economic downturn, as companies have to consistently pay interest costs, despite lower profitability. Especially for power sector companies, who generally fund capex through 70:30 ratio of debt to equity, any deviation in execution can cost heavy. Considering the company's average debt to equity ratio of 1.7 over the past five fiscals (2.2 times in FY12), we have assigned a high-risk rating of 3 to the stock.
Interest coverage ratio (PBIT/Interest payment): It is used to determine how comfortably a company is placed in terms of payment of interest on outstanding debt. The interest coverage ratio is calculated by dividing a company's earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) by its interest expense for a given period. The lower the ratio, the greater are the risks. Given Tata Power's average interest coverage ratio of 4.7 times over the past five years, the rating assigned is 5.
EV / EBIDTA Ratio: The enterprise value to operating margin (EBIDTA) multiple of a stock is a measure of cash return on investment. This multiple can be used to value companies with high levels of debt and therefore appropriate for valuing power utilities. This is one of the important metrics to judge the attractiveness of a stock, and thus gets the highest weightage in our risk matrix. Tata Power's FY12 EV/EBIDTA stands at 6.4 times. As such, we have assigned a rating of 6 to the stock on this parameter.
Considering the above analysis, the total ranking assigned to the company is 65 that, on a weighted basis, stands at 5.4. This makes the stock a medium-risk investment from a long-term perspective.

Risk Matrix

		Rating accorded

Rating	*Weightage (A)**	Rating# (B)	*Weighted (AB)**

Sector risk	-	Medium	NA

Company's standing	-	Strong	NA

Performance parameters

Revenue growth (%)	5.0%	9	0.5

Operating margin (%)	10.0%	6	0.6

Long term EPS growth (%)	10.0%	5	0.5

Return in invested capital (%)	10.0%	3	0.3

Technical parameters

Dividend payout (%)	10.0%	5	0.5

Promoter holding (%)	5.0%	5	0.3

FII holding (%)	5.0%	5	0.3

Liquidity (52 weeks)	10.0%	9	0.9

Safety parameters

Current ratio (x)	5.0%	4	0.2

Debt to equity ratio (x)	10.0%	3	0.3

Interest coverage ratio (x)	10.0%	5	0.5

Price to earnings ratio (x)	10.0%	6	0.6

Final Rating**		65	5.4

# Rating has been assigned on the basis of the company's performance over the past five years and expected performance over the next 3 to 5 years. Rating is on a scale of 1 to 10, with 1 indicating highest risk and 10 indicating lowest risk. * 'Weightage' indicates the relative importance in percentage terms of the parameter. For instance, for an investor, given all the performance metrics, return on equity should be the foremost criteria for buying/not buying stocks. ** The final rating has been arrived at by multiplying the rating/points given on each parameter with the respective weightage.

Valuation rationale

Notwithstanding the fact that Tata Power boasts of the maximum number of long term contracts in the power sector, the company also has sufficient upsides to its regulated returns. Also, unlike its peers, Tata Power does not have a very aggressive growth plan. Hence its capacity execution record is likely to be better. With a turnaround in the UMPP business we believe that Tata Power's consolidated return ratios will see significant upsides in the next three years. Hence despite the possibility of some near term hiccups (our estimates and target price have been revised accordingly), we believe that investors have enough reasons to Hold on to a blue chip stock like Tata Power in their portfolio from a three year perspective.
Also, if an investor would like to 'Buy' this stock at the current levels, then with the target price of Rs 140, the upside is about 33% point to point (11% on an average annual basis). Investors could take the investment decision based on this premise.

Valuations

(Rs m)	FY12UA	FY13E	FY14E	FY15E

Total Revenues (Rs m)	260,014	292,356	342,853	360,323

Net Profit (Rs m)	(10,874)	19,753	30,644	33,693

Fully diluted EPS (Rs)	(4.4)	8.0	12.4	13.6

Book value (Rs)	46.1	52.3	62.8	76.9

Price to earnings (x)	N.A	13.1	8.5	7.7

Price to book value (x)	2.3	2.0	1.7	1.4

Price to sales (x)	1.0	0.9	0.7	0.7

Financials at a glance

(Rs m)	FY12UA	FY13E	FY14E	FY15E

Net Sales	260,014	292,356	342,853	360,323

Sales growth (%)	33.7%	12.4%	17.3%	5.1%

Operating profit	64,264	56,980	71,055	71,036

Operating margin (%)	24.7%	19.5%	20.7%	19.7%

Net profit	(10,874)	19,753	30,644	33,693

Net profit margin (%)	-4.2%	6.8%	8.9%	9.4%

No of shares (m)	2,373.0	2,373.0	2,373.0	2,469.4

Diluted earnings per share (Rs)	(4.4)	8.0	12.4	13.6



Balance Sheet

Fixed Assets	289,477	355,418	343,448	364,020

Current assets	181,561	137,096	180,743	182,094

Investments	29,831	31,322	32,888	34,533

Deferred Tax Assets	68	68	68	68

Total assets	500,936	523,904	557,147	580,715



Networth	109,276	124,023	149,105	189,835

Loan funds	245,009	229,446	215,744	188,087

Current liabilities	117,450	141,225	163,079	173,572

Other liabilities	29,201	29,211	29,220	29,220

Total Liabilities	500,936	523,904	557,147	580,715

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Research Report - Tata Power Company Ltd - Target Price: Rs.140

2012-07-29T20:16:00.000+05:30

Market Data

Price on reco. date (Rs)

105 (BSE)

CMP - BSE / NSE (Rs)

105 / 105

Change since reco.

0.0%

52-week High/Low (Rs)

133 / 81

NSE Symbol

TATAPOWER

BSE Code

500400

No. of shares

2373.0 m

Free float

68.3%

Market cap (Rs m)

249,165

Rs 100 invested is now worth

Stock price performance

	Tata Power	Index*

1-Yr	-23.1%	-7.7%

3-Yrs	-5.2%	4.8%

5-Yrs	9.4%	3.2%

Returns over 1 year are compounded annual averages * BSE Sensex

Shareholding (Mar-12)

Category	(%)

Promoters	31.7

Banks, MFs and FIs	26.5

FIIs	21.9

Indian public	15.5

Others	4.4

Total	100.0

Investment Rationale

Table 1: Upsides in the offing

Model	Capacity MW	% of total capacity	Type of returns	Contract (years)	Upside

Operational capacities

Regulated returns	2,552	55%	Fixed return on equity	Till FY18	PLF incentives

Regulated tariffs (renewables)	405	9%	Fixed tariff +PLF	Till FY21 - FY29	Savings on capex

Captive Power Plant	668	14%	PPA driven (14-19% RoE)	Till FY27 - FY41	Merchant sale + saving on PPA terms PLF incentive

Merchant	140	3%	Market driven	N.A	No cap on returns

MOU / Bilateral	20	1%	PPA driven	Till FY18	As per PPA

Others	881	18%	Bid driven		PLF incentives

Capacities under execution

Projects	Capacity	Completed	Power offtake		Fuel linkage

Mundra UMPP	4,000	92%	PPA driven	Signed for 3,800 MW	Imported coal

Maithon	1,050	95% completed	PPA driven	Signed for 1,050 MW	Coal linkaged

Dagacchu	126		Tata Power trading company		Hydro

Investment Concerns

Data source: Company presentation

Background

Data source: Company presentation

Key management personnel

Industry prospects

Risk Analysis

Risk Matrix

		Rating accorded

Rating	*Weightage (A)**	Rating# (B)	*Weighted (AB)**

Sector risk	-	Medium	NA

Company's standing	-	Strong	NA

Performance parameters

Revenue growth (%)	5.0%	9	0.5

Operating margin (%)	10.0%	6	0.6

Long term EPS growth (%)	10.0%	5	0.5

Return in invested capital (%)	10.0%	3	0.3

Technical parameters

Dividend payout (%)	10.0%	5	0.5

Promoter holding (%)	5.0%	5	0.3

FII holding (%)	5.0%	5	0.3

Liquidity (52 weeks)	10.0%	9	0.9

Safety parameters

Current ratio (x)	5.0%	4	0.2

Debt to equity ratio (x)	10.0%	3	0.3

Interest coverage ratio (x)	10.0%	5	0.5

Price to earnings ratio (x)	10.0%	6	0.6

Final Rating**		65	5.4

Valuation rationale

Notwithstanding the fact that Tata Power boasts of the maximum number of long term contracts in the power sector, the company also has sufficient upsides to its regulated returns. Also, unlike its peers, Tata Power does not have a very aggressive growth plan. Hence its capacity execution record is likely to be better. With a turnaround in the UMPP business we believe that Tata Power's consolidated return ratios will see significant upsides in the next three years. Hence despite the possibility of some near term hiccups (our estimates and target price have been revised accordingly), we believe that investors have enough reasons to Hold on to a blue chip stock like Tata Power in their portfolio from a three year perspective.
Also, if an investor would like to 'Buy' this stock at the current levels, then with the target price of Rs 140, the upside is about 33% point to point (11% on an average annual basis). Investors could take the investment decision based on this premise.

Valuations

(Rs m)	FY12UA	FY13E	FY14E	FY15E

Total Revenues (Rs m)	260,014	292,356	342,853	360,323

Net Profit (Rs m)	(10,874)	19,753	30,644	33,693

Fully diluted EPS (Rs)	(4.4)	8.0	12.4	13.6

Book value (Rs)	46.1	52.3	62.8	76.9

Price to earnings (x)	N.A	13.1	8.5	7.7

Price to book value (x)	2.3	2.0	1.7	1.4

Price to sales (x)	1.0	0.9	0.7	0.7

Financials at a glance

(Rs m)	FY12UA	FY13E	FY14E	FY15E

Net Sales	260,014	292,356	342,853	360,323

Sales growth (%)	33.7%	12.4%	17.3%	5.1%

Operating profit	64,264	56,980	71,055	71,036

Operating margin (%)	24.7%	19.5%	20.7%	19.7%

Net profit	(10,874)	19,753	30,644	33,693

Net profit margin (%)	-4.2%	6.8%	8.9%	9.4%

No of shares (m)	2,373.0	2,373.0	2,373.0	2,469.4

Diluted earnings per share (Rs)	(4.4)	8.0	12.4	13.6



Balance Sheet

Fixed Assets	289,477	355,418	343,448	364,020

Current assets	181,561	137,096	180,743	182,094

Investments	29,831	31,322	32,888	34,533

Deferred Tax Assets	68	68	68	68

Total assets	500,936	523,904	557,147	580,715



Networth	109,276	124,023	149,105	189,835

Loan funds	245,009	229,446	215,744	188,087

Current liabilities	117,450	141,225	163,079	173,572

Other liabilities	29,201	29,211	29,220	29,220

Total Liabilities	500,936	523,904	557,147	580,715

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Research Report - Tata Power Company Ltd - Target Price: Rs.140

2012-07-29T20:09:00.001+05:30

Market Data

Price on reco. date (Rs)

105 (BSE)

CMP - BSE / NSE (Rs)

105 / 105

Change since reco.

0.0%

52-week High/Low (Rs)

133 / 81

NSE Symbol

TATAPOWER

BSE Code

500400

No. of shares

2373.0 m

Free float

68.3%

Market cap (Rs m)

249,165

Rs 100 invested is now worth

Stock price performance

	Tata Power	Index*

1-Yr	-23.1%	-7.7%

3-Yrs	-5.2%	4.8%

5-Yrs	9.4%	3.2%

Returns over 1 year are compounded annual averages * BSE Sensex

Shareholding (Mar-12)

Category	(%)

Promoters	31.7

Banks, MFs and FIs	26.5

FIIs	21.9

Indian public	15.5

Others	4.4

Total	100.0

Investment Rationale

Table 1: Upsides in the offing

Model	Capacity MW	% of total capacity	Type of returns	Contract (years)	Upside

Operational capacities

Regulated returns	2,552	55%	Fixed return on equity	Till FY18	PLF incentives

Regulated tariffs (renewables)	405	9%	Fixed tariff +PLF	Till FY21 - FY29	Savings on capex

Captive Power Plant	668	14%	PPA driven (14-19% RoE)	Till FY27 - FY41	Merchant sale + saving on PPA terms PLF incentive

Merchant	140	3%	Market driven	N.A	No cap on returns

MOU / Bilateral	20	1%	PPA driven	Till FY18	As per PPA

Others	881	18%	Bid driven		PLF incentives

Capacities under execution

Projects	Capacity	Completed	Power offtake		Fuel linkage

Mundra UMPP	4,000	92%	PPA driven	Signed for 3,800 MW	Imported coal

Maithon	1,050	95% completed	PPA driven	Signed for 1,050 MW	Coal linkaged

Dagacchu	126		Tata Power trading company		Hydro

Investment Concerns

Data source: Company presentation

Background

Data source: Company presentation

Key management personnel

Industry prospects

Risk Analysis

Risk Matrix

		Rating accorded

Rating	*Weightage (A)**	Rating# (B)	*Weighted (AB)**

Sector risk	-	Medium	NA

Company's standing	-	Strong	NA

Performance parameters

Revenue growth (%)	5.0%	9	0.5

Operating margin (%)	10.0%	6	0.6

Long term EPS growth (%)	10.0%	5	0.5

Return in invested capital (%)	10.0%	3	0.3

Technical parameters

Dividend payout (%)	10.0%	5	0.5

Promoter holding (%)	5.0%	5	0.3

FII holding (%)	5.0%	5	0.3

Liquidity (52 weeks)	10.0%	9	0.9

Safety parameters

Current ratio (x)	5.0%	4	0.2

Debt to equity ratio (x)	10.0%	3	0.3

Interest coverage ratio (x)	10.0%	5	0.5

Price to earnings ratio (x)	10.0%	6	0.6

Final Rating**		65	5.4

Valuation rationale

Notwithstanding the fact that Tata Power boasts of the maximum number of long term contracts in the power sector, the company also has sufficient upsides to its regulated returns. Also, unlike its peers, Tata Power does not have a very aggressive growth plan. Hence its capacity execution record is likely to be better. With a turnaround in the UMPP business we believe that Tata Power's consolidated return ratios will see significant upsides in the next three years. Hence despite the possibility of some near term hiccups (our estimates and target price have been revised accordingly), we believe that investors have enough reasons to Hold on to a blue chip stock like Tata Power in their portfolio from a three year perspective.
Also, if an investor would like to 'Buy' this stock at the current levels, then with the target price of Rs 140, the upside is about 33% point to point (11% on an average annual basis). Investors could take the investment decision based on this premise.

Valuations

(Rs m)	FY12UA	FY13E	FY14E	FY15E

Total Revenues (Rs m)	260,014	292,356	342,853	360,323

Net Profit (Rs m)	(10,874)	19,753	30,644	33,693

Fully diluted EPS (Rs)	(4.4)	8.0	12.4	13.6

Book value (Rs)	46.1	52.3	62.8	76.9

Price to earnings (x)	N.A	13.1	8.5	7.7

Price to book value (x)	2.3	2.0	1.7	1.4

Price to sales (x)	1.0	0.9	0.7	0.7

Financials at a glance

(Rs m)	FY12UA	FY13E	FY14E	FY15E

Net Sales	260,014	292,356	342,853	360,323

Sales growth (%)	33.7%	12.4%	17.3%	5.1%

Operating profit	64,264	56,980	71,055	71,036

Operating margin (%)	24.7%	19.5%	20.7%	19.7%

Net profit	(10,874)	19,753	30,644	33,693

Net profit margin (%)	-4.2%	6.8%	8.9%	9.4%

No of shares (m)	2,373.0	2,373.0	2,373.0	2,469.4

Diluted earnings per share (Rs)	(4.4)	8.0	12.4	13.6



Balance Sheet

Fixed Assets	289,477	355,418	343,448	364,020

Current assets	181,561	137,096	180,743	182,094

Investments	29,831	31,322	32,888	34,533

Deferred Tax Assets	68	68	68	68

Total assets	500,936	523,904	557,147	580,715



Networth	109,276	124,023	149,105	189,835

Loan funds	245,009	229,446	215,744	188,087

Current liabilities	117,450	141,225	163,079	173,572

Other liabilities	29,201	29,211	29,220	29,220

Total Liabilities	500,936	523,904	557,147	580,715

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Research Report - Tata Power Company Ltd - Target Price: Rs.140

2012-07-29T20:03:00.001+05:30

Market Data

Price on reco. date (Rs)

105 (BSE)

CMP - BSE / NSE (Rs)

105 / 105

Change since reco.

0.0%

52-week High/Low (Rs)

133 / 81

NSE Symbol

TATAPOWER

BSE Code

500400

No. of shares

2373.0 m

Free float

68.3%

Market cap (Rs m)

249,165

Rs 100 invested is now worth

Stock price performance

	Tata Power	Index*

1-Yr	-23.1%	-7.7%

3-Yrs	-5.2%	4.8%

5-Yrs	9.4%	3.2%

Returns over 1 year are compounded annual averages * BSE Sensex

Shareholding (Mar-12)

Category	(%)

Promoters	31.7

Banks, MFs and FIs	26.5

FIIs	21.9

Indian public	15.5

Others	4.4

Total	100.0

Investment Rationale

Table 1: Upsides in the offing

Model	Capacity MW	% of total capacity	Type of returns	Contract (years)	Upside

Operational capacities

Regulated returns	2,552	55%	Fixed return on equity	Till FY18	PLF incentives

Regulated tariffs (renewables)	405	9%	Fixed tariff +PLF	Till FY21 - FY29	Savings on capex

Captive Power Plant	668	14%	PPA driven (14-19% RoE)	Till FY27 - FY41	Merchant sale + saving on PPA terms PLF incentive

Merchant	140	3%	Market driven	N.A	No cap on returns

MOU / Bilateral	20	1%	PPA driven	Till FY18	As per PPA

Others	881	18%	Bid driven		PLF incentives

Capacities under execution

Projects	Capacity	Completed	Power offtake		Fuel linkage

Mundra UMPP	4,000	92%	PPA driven	Signed for 3,800 MW	Imported coal

Maithon	1,050	95% completed	PPA driven	Signed for 1,050 MW	Coal linkaged

Dagacchu	126		Tata Power trading company		Hydro

Investment Concerns

Data source: Company presentation

Background

Data source: Company presentation

Key management personnel

Industry prospects

Risk Analysis

Risk Matrix

		Rating accorded

Rating	*Weightage (A)**	Rating# (B)	*Weighted (AB)**

Sector risk	-	Medium	NA

Company's standing	-	Strong	NA

Performance parameters

Revenue growth (%)	5.0%	9	0.5

Operating margin (%)	10.0%	6	0.6

Long term EPS growth (%)	10.0%	5	0.5

Return in invested capital (%)	10.0%	3	0.3

Technical parameters

Dividend payout (%)	10.0%	5	0.5

Promoter holding (%)	5.0%	5	0.3

FII holding (%)	5.0%	5	0.3

Liquidity (52 weeks)	10.0%	9	0.9

Safety parameters

Current ratio (x)	5.0%	4	0.2

Debt to equity ratio (x)	10.0%	3	0.3

Interest coverage ratio (x)	10.0%	5	0.5

Price to earnings ratio (x)	10.0%	6	0.6

Final Rating**		65	5.4

Valuation rationale

Notwithstanding the fact that Tata Power boasts of the maximum number of long term contracts in the power sector, the company also has sufficient upsides to its regulated returns. Also, unlike its peers, Tata Power does not have a very aggressive growth plan. Hence its capacity execution record is likely to be better. With a turnaround in the UMPP business we believe that Tata Power's consolidated return ratios will see significant upsides in the next three years. Hence despite the possibility of some near term hiccups (our estimates and target price have been revised accordingly), we believe that investors have enough reasons to Hold on to a blue chip stock like Tata Power in their portfolio from a three year perspective.
Also, if an investor would like to 'Buy' this stock at the current levels, then with the target price of Rs 140, the upside is about 33% point to point (11% on an average annual basis). Investors could take the investment decision based on this premise.

Valuations

(Rs m)	FY12UA	FY13E	FY14E	FY15E

Total Revenues (Rs m)	260,014	292,356	342,853	360,323

Net Profit (Rs m)	(10,874)	19,753	30,644	33,693

Fully diluted EPS (Rs)	(4.4)	8.0	12.4	13.6

Book value (Rs)	46.1	52.3	62.8	76.9

Price to earnings (x)	N.A	13.1	8.5	7.7

Price to book value (x)	2.3	2.0	1.7	1.4

Price to sales (x)	1.0	0.9	0.7	0.7

Financials at a glance

(Rs m)	FY12UA	FY13E	FY14E	FY15E

Net Sales	260,014	292,356	342,853	360,323

Sales growth (%)	33.7%	12.4%	17.3%	5.1%

Operating profit	64,264	56,980	71,055	71,036

Operating margin (%)	24.7%	19.5%	20.7%	19.7%

Net profit	(10,874)	19,753	30,644	33,693

Net profit margin (%)	-4.2%	6.8%	8.9%	9.4%

No of shares (m)	2,373.0	2,373.0	2,373.0	2,469.4

Diluted earnings per share (Rs)	(4.4)	8.0	12.4	13.6



Balance Sheet

Fixed Assets	289,477	355,418	343,448	364,020

Current assets	181,561	137,096	180,743	182,094

Investments	29,831	31,322	32,888	34,533

Deferred Tax Assets	68	68	68	68

Total assets	500,936	523,904	557,147	580,715



Networth	109,276	124,023	149,105	189,835

Loan funds	245,009	229,446	215,744	188,087

Current liabilities	117,450	141,225	163,079	173,572

Other liabilities	29,201	29,211	29,220	29,220

Total Liabilities	500,936	523,904	557,147	580,715

--
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2012-07-29T20:00:00.001+05:30

Market Data

Price on reco. date (Rs)

105 (BSE)

CMP - BSE / NSE (Rs)

105 / 105

Change since reco.

0.0%

52-week High/Low (Rs)

133 / 81

NSE Symbol

TATAPOWER

BSE Code

500400

No. of shares

2373.0 m

Free float

68.3%

Market cap (Rs m)

249,165

Rs 100 invested is now worth

Stock price performance

	Tata Power	Index*

1-Yr	-23.1%	-7.7%

3-Yrs	-5.2%	4.8%

5-Yrs	9.4%	3.2%

Returns over 1 year are compounded annual averages * BSE Sensex

Shareholding (Mar-12)

Category	(%)

Promoters	31.7

Banks, MFs and FIs	26.5

FIIs	21.9

Indian public	15.5

Others	4.4

Total	100.0

Investment Rationale

Table 1: Upsides in the offing

Model	Capacity MW	% of total capacity	Type of returns	Contract (years)	Upside

Operational capacities

Regulated returns	2,552	55%	Fixed return on equity	Till FY18	PLF incentives

Regulated tariffs (renewables)	405	9%	Fixed tariff +PLF	Till FY21 - FY29	Savings on capex

Captive Power Plant	668	14%	PPA driven (14-19% RoE)	Till FY27 - FY41	Merchant sale + saving on PPA terms PLF incentive

Merchant	140	3%	Market driven	N.A	No cap on returns

MOU / Bilateral	20	1%	PPA driven	Till FY18	As per PPA

Others	881	18%	Bid driven		PLF incentives

Capacities under execution

Projects	Capacity	Completed	Power offtake		Fuel linkage

Mundra UMPP	4,000	92%	PPA driven	Signed for 3,800 MW	Imported coal

Maithon	1,050	95% completed	PPA driven	Signed for 1,050 MW	Coal linkaged

Dagacchu	126		Tata Power trading company		Hydro

Investment Concerns

Data source: Company presentation

Background

Data source: Company presentation

Key management personnel

Industry prospects

Risk Analysis

Risk Matrix

		Rating accorded

Rating	*Weightage (A)**	Rating# (B)	*Weighted (AB)**

Sector risk	-	Medium	NA

Company's standing	-	Strong	NA

Performance parameters

Revenue growth (%)	5.0%	9	0.5

Operating margin (%)	10.0%	6	0.6

Long term EPS growth (%)	10.0%	5	0.5

Return in invested capital (%)	10.0%	3	0.3

Technical parameters

Dividend payout (%)	10.0%	5	0.5

Promoter holding (%)	5.0%	5	0.3

FII holding (%)	5.0%	5	0.3

Liquidity (52 weeks)	10.0%	9	0.9

Safety parameters

Current ratio (x)	5.0%	4	0.2

Debt to equity ratio (x)	10.0%	3	0.3

Interest coverage ratio (x)	10.0%	5	0.5

Price to earnings ratio (x)	10.0%	6	0.6

Final Rating**		65	5.4

Valuation rationale

Notwithstanding the fact that Tata Power boasts of the maximum number of long term contracts in the power sector, the company also has sufficient upsides to its regulated returns. Also, unlike its peers, Tata Power does not have a very aggressive growth plan. Hence its capacity execution record is likely to be better. With a turnaround in the UMPP business we believe that Tata Power's consolidated return ratios will see significant upsides in the next three years. Hence despite the possibility of some near term hiccups (our estimates and target price have been revised accordingly), we believe that investors have enough reasons to Hold on to a blue chip stock like Tata Power in their portfolio from a three year perspective.
Also, if an investor would like to 'Buy' this stock at the current levels, then with the target price of Rs 140, the upside is about 33% point to point (11% on an average annual basis). Investors could take the investment decision based on this premise.

Valuations

(Rs m)	FY12UA	FY13E	FY14E	FY15E

Total Revenues (Rs m)	260,014	292,356	342,853	360,323

Net Profit (Rs m)	(10,874)	19,753	30,644	33,693

Fully diluted EPS (Rs)	(4.4)	8.0	12.4	13.6

Book value (Rs)	46.1	52.3	62.8	76.9

Price to earnings (x)	N.A	13.1	8.5	7.7

Price to book value (x)	2.3	2.0	1.7	1.4

Price to sales (x)	1.0	0.9	0.7	0.7

Financials at a glance

(Rs m)	FY12UA	FY13E	FY14E	FY15E

Net Sales	260,014	292,356	342,853	360,323

Sales growth (%)	33.7%	12.4%	17.3%	5.1%

Operating profit	64,264	56,980	71,055	71,036

Operating margin (%)	24.7%	19.5%	20.7%	19.7%

Net profit	(10,874)	19,753	30,644	33,693

Net profit margin (%)	-4.2%	6.8%	8.9%	9.4%

No of shares (m)	2,373.0	2,373.0	2,373.0	2,469.4

Diluted earnings per share (Rs)	(4.4)	8.0	12.4	13.6



Balance Sheet

Fixed Assets	289,477	355,418	343,448	364,020

Current assets	181,561	137,096	180,743	182,094

Investments	29,831	31,322	32,888	34,533

Deferred Tax Assets	68	68	68	68

Total assets	500,936	523,904	557,147	580,715



Networth	109,276	124,023	149,105	189,835

Loan funds	245,009	229,446	215,744	188,087

Current liabilities	117,450	141,225	163,079	173,572

Other liabilities	29,201	29,211	29,220	29,220

Total Liabilities	500,936	523,904	557,147	580,715

--
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Mulit Bagger - Granules India 24-07-2012

2012-07-23T20:50:00.000+05:30

NSE ID :GRANULES

Granules India is among the leading global manufacturer of high volume APIs including Paracetamol, Ibuprofen, Metformin and Guaifenesin. Additionally, Granules pioneered the concept of commercialising PFIs and is the world's largest PFI facility.

The Indian pharmaceutical industry grew at a CAGR of 14% in the five years leading to FY12; Granules revenues grew at a 28% CAGR during the period. GIL continued to strengthen its position in the rapidly growing market and is aiming at achieving productivity gains, growth in volumes, sustained margins and neutralising cost increases.

The company has registered smart numbers for the quarter ending March 2012. The revenue from operations has increased by 56.89% at Rs 188.09 crore for quarter under review as compared to Rs 119.89 crore for the quarter ended March 31, 2011 translating in operating profit of Rs.25.82 crore; up by 46.37% y-oy. A comparatively tremendous net profit growth of 85.71% to Rs. 16.38 was reported for the Q4FY12 compared to Rs.8.82 crore of same quarter previous year. Growth in revenue and profits was driven by higher growth in the finished dosage segment. EPS almost doubled at Rs.8.15 y-o-y.

GIL offers all three components of the pharmaceutical value chain which gives the customers flexibility and choice. It manufactures PFIs (strategically backward integrated through the in-house manufacture of APIs) to finished dosages (tablets in bulk).

Valuation

With efficient manufacturing value chain, increasing utilization, complete vertical integration and capacity expansion GIL's revenue visibility looks strong. We believe GIL is trading at an attractive valuation at 7.17x and 5.2x of FY13EPS of Rs.20.82 and FY14EPS of Rs.28.73. We initiate a BUY on the stock with a target price of Rs.200 (appreciation of about 34%) with the short to medium term investment horizon.

MY FACE BOOK ID : https://www.facebook.com/buzibiz

Indian Markets To Remain Weak 23-7-12

2012-07-22T21:24:00.001+05:30

Indian markets declined for the second week running, as investors digested a spate of corporate earnings even as they wait for the Government to introduce important reforms. The results were pretty mixed. Except for Infosys, there hasn’t been any major negative surprise so far. The persistent deficit in the southwest monsoon rainfall is the biggest overhang for the Indian market apart from lack of progress on reforms.

Sticky inflation and widening twin deficits are among the other negatives for the Indian economy. FII flows have stayed positive this month on hope that the UPA will initiate a few key reforms before the start of the monsoon session of parliament on August 8. Markets will be disappointed if the expected reforms do not come through.

Benchmark Indices
Index	13-Jul-12	20-Jul-12	% Change
Sensex	17,214	17,158.44	-0.32
Nifty	5,227	5,205.1	-0.42

Also, the crude oil prices have again inched back to USD 100 levels and the government is thinking of a diesel price hike. Both these prices play a major role in the inflation index. This is a cause for worry and the RBI would not like to change its current stance of keeping the rate high. On Thursday the market awaited the presidential election event with highest probability of Pranab Mukherjee becoming the next president of the country and the prime minister taking the responsibility of the finance ministry. The markets are hoping for some major reforms from the finance ministry to be announced in the coming days so that the economy will be back on the growth track.

Global equities have held up quite well lately as central banks have swung into action to boost economic growth. Expectations of further monetary stimulus from the US and Chinese central banks also remain in place amid mixed economic statistics. One problematic area is the resurgence in commodity prices, especially that of crude oil.

Among the individual stocks, Cadila Healthcare was the biggest index gainer, up by 12.31 per cent to Rs 880 post the news that the company had received a clean bill of health from the US Food and Drug Administration. The stock exchanges were informed that the USFDA had found its facilities at Moraiya to be “acceptable”. TTK Prestige this week was the second-highest gainer in the BSE ‘A’ group category, up by 8 per cent to Rs 3,563. This was mainly on account of good results for the June quarter.

On the other hand, there were losers too, among which Adani Enterprise and Adani Power closed the week lower by 12.03 per cent and 9 per cent respectively while companies like Union Bank of India, United Breweries, Jaypee Infra, etc closed down with losses in the range of 7.11 per cent to 8.92 per cent.

Key Global Indicators
Index	13-Jul-12	20-Jul-12
Gold	29,246	29,232
Silver	53,033	53
Crude Oil (Brent)	101.99	106.89
Crude Oil (Nymex)	86.71	91.92

Currency Rate
Index	13-Jul-12	20-Jul-12
USD	55.38	55.15
EURO	67.58	67.60
GBP	85.48	86.57
JYP (per 100)	69.39	70.22

For the next week one may watch out for stocks like Colgate, Dabur India, Geometric, HUL, L&T, Tata Global, Jindal Steel, Sesa Goa, Ashok Leyland, etc which are going to announce their June quarter results. One may see volatility in the share prices of the above stocks on the back of their performances.

In conclusion, we expect the markets to remain volatile for the next week as there are no major triggers in the offing. The June quarter earnings so far have remained muted while the global markets are trading nervously on the back of slowdown in growth. On the Indian front, a ray of hope is that of the prime minister announcing some reforms.

Weekly Beeps - Markets Ends Flat, Rupee hits another Record Low 23-6-12

2012-06-23T20:10:00.001+05:30

The Indian markets were lacklustre this week as there were no major triggers. The most-awaited mid quarter review of monetary policy has completely disappointed the investors. The markets were discounting the 25 bps repo rate cut during the last week and the case of the rate cut was built upon lower growth in industrial output and slowdown in the economy. Analysts, bankers and experts were seen admitting that lower growth in the country needed a boost through a repo rate cut by the RBI. The markets after the RBI’s stance of not resorting to the cut have fallen and the week remained volatile.

Benchmark Indices
Index	15-Jun-12	22-Jun-12	% Change
SENSEX	16949.83	16972.51	0.13%
NIFTY	5139.05	5146.05	0.14%
Hang Seng	19234	18995.13	-1.24%
Nikkei	8569	8798.35	2.68%
Shanghai	2416	2260.88	-6.42%
Dow Jones*	12652	12,574	-0.62%
S&P 500*	1329	1326	-0.23%
NASDAQ*	2836	2859	0.81%
FTSE*	5467	5,566	1.81%
DAX*	6139	6343	3.32%
CAC*	3033	3114	3%
*Closing values as of Thursday

The rupee during the week touched a record low amidst the negative news flow. The rupee on Thursday closed on 56.57 against the USD. Today the rupee breached Rs 57 per dollar mark, and was seen touching 57.30 against the dollar making the day to be recorded in the history books. The analysts are now expecting the rupee to move towards 58 per USD in the next few months. The RBI has ordered the oil companies to buy the half needed dollars from PSU banks in order to arrest the free fall of the national currency.

Currency Rate
Index	15-Jun-12	22-Jun-12	% Change
USD	55.763	57.11	2%
EURO	70.4411	71.72	2%
GBP	86.6892	89.11	3%
JYP (per 100)	70.69	71.1	1%

Key Global Indicators
Index	15-Jun-12	22-Jun-12	% Change
Gold	30,129	29,938.00	-1%
Silver	54,599	52,970.00	-3%
Crude Oil (Brent)	97.63	90.22	-8%
Crude Oil (Nymex)	84.69	78.71	-7%

In the global markets, the election in Greece turned out to be in favour of the markets as the democracy party got a majority of the votes and were hopeful of forming a coalition party in favour of the integrity of the European Union. However, the focus shifted to Spain which was ailing on the back of the rising bond yields that will have an impact on its borrowing cost. Meanwhile, the Fed went against the market expectation of a stimulus package. However, it has not decided to restrict itself to ‘operation twist’ which implies exchanging short-term securities for longer-term ones in order to bring down the long-term interest rates and make it easier to borrow money.

The indices shown mixed trends on the back of the positive news on Greece election. Nikkei, FTSE, DAX and CAC have shown the gains between 1.8-3% in this week. US stocks remained mixed with NASDAQ gaining marginally and Dow Jones and S&P declining marginally. Shanghai market lost heavily by 6%.

Meanwhile, investment banker JP Morgan has upgraded the Indian equities to overweight from neutral on account of the fall in the crude oil prices. The bank is overweight on private banks, IT services and healthcare but is underweight on consumer discretionary, energy and materials. The banking stocks after the RBI’s stance have come under pressure. The realty and auto stocks were under pressure too during the week. Adding fuel to the fire was the event of credit rating agency Moody downgrading eight financial institutions, including banks like SBI, BOB, etc. The credit rating agency has also lowered the outlook for India from stable to negative.

Back home, pharma and capital goods indices were top gainer indices. IT, Teck, Metal and bankex were in the red.

The shares of Reliance Communication were under pressure as the Canadian equity research company Veritas said that the company is entering a ‘maximum uncertainty’ phase. The research firm has also doubted its book value and has alleged that the company has made a loss of Rs 1,529 crore instead of the reported profit of Rs 882 crore in FY12.

The cement stocks displayed high volatility in the week mainly due to uncertainty over the cartelization of the cement prices. The CCI order came in on Thursday evening directing 11 cement firms to pay 50 per cent of their FY10 and FY11 profits. This amounts to a whopping amount of Rs 6,300 crore. This includes major cement firms like ACC, Ambuja and Ultratech. We believe that this will impact the profitability of the cement companies in the near term. It will also reduce the pricing power of the cement firms.

Top Gainers/Losers
Gainers	LTP	% Change	Losers	LTP	Chng.(%)
Manap.Fin	24.6	13.1	RCOM	62.6	-8.14
HPCL	334.3	11.53	TorrentPower	177.2	-6.86
Shree Ceme	2924.55	10.36	JubilantFood	1136	-6.64
HDIL	81.85	10.31	IOB	83.9	-5.78
IOC	262.45	9.38	Hindalco	117.3	-4.98
IndianHote	59.8	9.02	Bharat Forge	295.4	-4.85
Pantaloon	182.1	8.07	United Spiri	660.9	-3.88
Finan.Tech	699.1	7.97	AshokLeyland	24.9	-3.86
CadilaHeal	775	7.18	UNION BANK	201.1	-3.76
Piram.Heal	516.65	6.42	Central Bank	78.15	-3.4

The capital goods’ stocks during the week gained as the PMO hiked import duty on foreign power equipment. Now the duties on the power equipments range between 19-21 per cent. Another good reason for the stocks to gain was that Coal India has been allocated 116 coal blocks by the government.

Meanwhile Moody’s has also put Tata Power under its scanner for credit rating. Besides, Sensex heavyweight RIL has said that it will sell its textile business that operates under the brand name ‘Vimal’. For the next week we expect the markets to remain volatile due to the weak sentiments prevailing as of now. The key trigger for the markets is missing. Also, as per the recent data from the U.S., China and the euro zone, there evidently is contraction in their economies. The Federal Reserve has kept its bearish stance on the economy by lowering the GDP forecast from 3.5-4.2 per cent to 2.4-2.9 per cent and then to 1.9-2.4 per cent. The bearish stance has pulled down the U.S. equities and we see this as a major negative factor that may initiate a cascading effect on the global markets.

Weekly Beeps - IIP and Inflation ends The Week, Investors Eye RBI Policy And Greek Election 15-06-12

2012-06-16T20:34:00.002+05:30

On the domestic front, the week had two releases of major data viz. the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) and the Wholesale Price Index (WPI) Inflation, both keeping the market a little nervous since they were below expectation. However, the broader indices inched higher by almost 1.4 per cent on the hope that this might make the RBI slash the rates in its monetary policy next week. Further, the markets also received a warning from the leading global rating agency S&P which has said that India could be the first BRIC’s ‘fallen angel’.

Benchmark Indices
Index	8-Jun-12	15-Jun-12	% Change
SENSEX	16718.87	16949.83	1.38
NIFTY	5068.35	5139.05	1.39
Hang Seng	18502.34	19234	3.95
Nikkei	8459.26	8569	1.30
Shanghai	2281.45	2416	5.90
Dow Jones*	12414.79	12652	1.91
S&P 500*	1315.13	1329	1.05
NASDAQ*	2844.71	2836	-0.31
Bovespa*	52481.44	55351.67	5.47
FTSE*	5447.9	5467	0.35
DAX*	6144.22	6139	-0.08
CAC*	3047.37	3033	-0.47
* closing till Thursday

The IIP data for April was released on Tuesday which came in at a meager 0.1 per cent against the street expectations of anywhere in the range of 1.2 to 2 per cent. The finance minister expressed his disappointment over the dismal numbers and said that the ministry would take steps to beam positive signals in the economy.

A day after that, on Thursday, the Wholesale Price Index (WPI) Inflation for May came in at 7.55 per cent, higher than 7.23 per cent in April. What was more shocking was that the March inflation figure was revised to 7.69 from the previous estimate of 6.89 per cent. During the week S&P also came out with its report titled ‘Will India Be The First BRIC’s Fallen Angel?’ which stated that the slowing GDP growth and the political roadblocks to economic policy-making could put India at a risk of losing its investment grade rating.

On the global front, the week started with the big bang as the euro region’s finance ministers agreed to bail out Spain for up to Euro 100 billion. One should note that previously Greece, Ireland and Portugal have all taken bail-outs and Spain would be the fourth European country to do so. Further, media reports suggested that Italy’s economy is also under the pain and that things could go from bad to worse.

Now all eyes are on the RBI’s monetary meet scheduled for Monday, June 18. In this scenario it would be very challenging for the RBI to choose between growth and inflation. One should further note that a 25 basis points’ cut in the repo rate and CRR each is already factored into the market. We believe that the RBI should maintain a status quo in its meet as inflation is still above the comfort zone and if that happens one may see the broader markets moving southwards by about 2 to 3 per cent.

Top Gainers/Losers
Gainers	CMP	% Change (WoW)	Losers	CMP	% Change (WoW)
Ambuja Cem	167.8	11.09	Adani Port	115	-7.63
Piram.Heal	485.5	10.03	Godrej Ind	231.35	-7.26
United Spi	687.55	9.70	PidiliteIn	162.35	-6.83
MMTC	752.05	8.90	Oberoi Rea	242.55	-6.35
PFC	168.05	8.81	Lupin	513.55	-5.96
Grasim Ind	2485	7.54	UNITECH	21.5	-5.70
SyndicateB	103.45	6.76	OptoCircui	145.7	-5.63
Dabur Indi	110.55	6.55	EicherMoto	2066	-4.95
ACC	1218.65	6.24	Apollo Hsp	635.1	-4.56
Indian Ban	180.8	6.23	MphasiS	339.2	-4.37

Key Global Indicators
Index	8-Jun-12	15-Jun-12	% Change
Gold	29,341	30,129	2.69
Silver	53,849	54,599	1.39
Crude Oil (Brent)	97.86	97.63	-0.24
Crude Oil (Nymex)	82.31	84.69	2.89

Currency Rate
Index	8-Jun-12	15-Jun-12	% Change
USD	55.364	55.763	0.72
EURO	69.2125	70.4411	1.78
GBP	85.6398	86.6892	1.23
JYP (per 100)	69.88	70.69	1.16

Among the individual stocks, most of the cement stocks inched higher this week after the companies in the sector reported a good set of dispatch numbers for May. United Spirits closed the week higher by almost 10 per cent after the news that Credit Suisse (Singapore) has acquired a stake in the company for Rs 62 crore through a bulk deal. Other banking stocks like Syndicate Bank and Indian Bank also closed higher by 6.76 and 6.23 per cent after investors speculated about an interest rate cut on Monday’s monetary meet.

On the other hand, Adani Port was among the leading index loser that closed the week lower by 7.63 per cent at Rs 115 on the back of news that the company is examining a possible deal to buy the export terminal at Dhamra Port in Orissa.

The fertilizers’ stocks this week were more volatile on the back of major news about the urea price hike. The shares of fertilizer companies during the week traded higher but later gave up most of their gains as the government deferred the fertilizer ministry’s proposal to hike the retail prices of urea by 10 per cent for fiscal 2012-13.

In conclusion, we expect the markets to remain volatile for the next week as we have a series of events lined up on the domestic as well as on the international front. The RBI monetary policy and Consumer Price Index numbers would be released on June 18 while on the macro front the outcome of the election results of Greece on June 17 and the Fed Open Market Committee meet on June 19 could also drive the market in either direction. The progress of monsoon may also have a sentiment impact.

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Weekly beeps - Reforms Measures and Anticipated RBI Rate Cut puts markets on higher 9/6/12

2012-05-20T11:57:00.001+05:30

After the troubled month of May, which saw a major decline in the Indian markets, the first week of June has brought some cheer to the investors who witnessed some strong positive momentum, thus providing the much-needed relief. On June 6 the Sensex recorded the highest single-day gains in the past one year. However, the rally this week mainly on the Hope of a rate cut by the RBI and due to the reform measure taken by the government as regards the petrol price hike.

Benchmark Indices
Index	1-Jun-12	8-Jun-12	% Change
SENSEX	15965.16	16718.87	4.72
NIFTY	4841.6	5068.35	4.68

The market in the previous week saw a sharp correction after the economy witnessed the weakest GDP growth of 5.3 per cent for the March quarter. The government, as a result, took some hasty steps to bring the economy back on its growth track by outlining an ambitious agenda to put infrastructure projects in a fast forward mode. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh on Wednesday sent out a strong signal stating that the government meant business and that the initiatives were part of efforts to pull the economy out of “turbulent weather” and move towards 9 per cent annual GDP growth.

However, a lot still needs to be done on the policy front to bring the economy back on the high growth track and till then the upward movement in the markets is unlikely to be sustained. In the immediate term all eyes would be on the Reserve Bank of India’s mid-quarter review of the monetary policy for 2012-13, which is scheduled for June 18, 2012. Prior to this event the April month IIP figures will be announced on June 12 which will give more clarity to the government and to the markets.

Meanwhile, there are some concerns which are still persisting in the economy, one of which is the depreciating rupee which continues to be a major headwind for the economy. However, it has shown signs of appreciation but is still stringently high above the comfort zone. The rupee is currently trading at 55.14 against a dollar. And Brent crude in the last one week dropped significantly to USD 97.86 after which it came down on Thursday from the level of USD 125 in the past couple of months to less than USD 100 per barrel, which is good for Indian economy. But the depreciating rupee has offset some of this benefit.

Currency Rate
Index	1-Jun-12	8-Jun-12
USD	56.355	55.364
EURO	69.39	69.2125
GBP	86.2	85.6398
JYP (per 100)	72.06	69.88

Key Global Indicators
Index	1-Jun-12	8-Jun-12
Gold	28,944	29,341
Silver	55,330	53,849
Crude Oil (Brent)	100.03	97.86
Crude Oil (Nymex)	85.07	82.31

The global markets are currently very sensitive to credit problems, especially from the European region. Fitch has cut Spain’s credit rating to BBB and left it two notches from junk, citing the cost of recapitalizing the country’s banking industry and a lengthening recession. Further uncertainty about Greece exiting the euro zone has added woes to the investors’ sentiments. The clarity on Greece exiting the euro zone may only come post the election results expected on June 17.

Meanwhile, the other Asian markets like Nikkei closed in the positive territory as China surprisingly went for a rate cut by 25 bps to keep up the pace of the economy. The slashing of the rate was the first time in a long period of four years which signifies that China is facing a serious slowdown in its current environment.

Top Gainers/Losers
Gainers	CMP	% Change (WoW)	Losers	CMP	% Change (WoW)
Pantaloon	167.05	20.31	Guj Gas Co	298.5	-10.51
REL	501.9	16.60	Indrapra G	225.85	-9.42
L&T	1309.05	15.39	GSPL	65.7	-6.81
HDIL	72.8	14.38	Adani Ente	227.35	-5.23
IB Real Es	58.2	14.12	NeyveliLig	81.35	-4.57
RelinceCap	339.75	13.86	UltraTechC	1399	-4.00
Sun TV	257.65	13.65	Titan Inds	213	-3.86
Uco Bank	76.85	12.85	EicherMoto	2176	-3.68
JSW Energy	47.1	12.01	MphasiS	354.7	-3.57
TTK Presti	3007.35	11.05	ColgatePal	1144.95	-3.18

The Chinese rate cut triggered speculation about Saturday’s data points. Tension also prevails over the precarious fiscal health of Spain and its fragile banks. Greek elections on June 17 will start playing on investors’ minds from next week. The following couple of weeks also has key events lined up, especially the FOMC meet and G-20 summit.
For India, next week will be important, as the Government will release the latest IIP and inflation reports. The two data points could well have a bearing on the outcome of the RBI’s June 18 policy meeting which will decide the direction thereon.

Research Report - Gas Authority of India Ltd.

Market Data

Price on reco. date (Rs)	332 (BSE)

CMP - BSE / NSE (Rs)	332 / 332

Change since reco.	-0.1%

52-week High/Low (Rs)	477 / 301

NSE Symbol	GAIL

BSE Code	532155

No. of shares	1268.5 m

Free float	42.7%

Market cap (Rs m)	421,142

Rs 100 invested is now worth

Stock price performance

	GAIL	Index*

1-Yr	-25.4%	9.1%

3-Yrs	4.1%	3.4%

5-Yrs	11.1%	3.5%

* BSE Sensex
Returns over 1 year are compounded annual averages (CAGR)

Shareholding (Mar-2012)

Category	(%)

Promoters	57.3

Banks, FIs and MFs	26.0

FIIs	13.3

Others	3.4

Total	100.0

Investment Rationale

Source: Company data

Near term concerns over penalize stock: It was in April 2011 that we had come up with a report on Gas Authority of India Limited (GAIL) with a 'HOLD' recommendation. Since then, the gas sector in India has witnessed some drastic changes. The gas supplies from Reliance's KG D6- a key source of domestic gas supplies that were projected to double then have actually fallen drastically and are expected to go down further. GAIL being the largest player in domestic gas transmission and trading has been an obvious victim. Apart from the domestic gas shortage, the stock price has been battered down due to downward revision of transmission tariffs (with retrospective effects) on around 75% of the existing transmission network and one off provisions.
But GAIL has not succumbed to these adverse factors. The company management has in a very short span of time replaced the shortfall from domestic gas volumes with imported gas. Being an experienced player and market leader, GAIL is well placed to secure the best deals in imported gas .As alternate fuels are becoming pricier; the demand of gas energy in India is bound to go up. We expect the gas supplies to improve substantially post FY13 as expansion of LNG (liquefied natural gas) terminals is completed and gas supplies are increased from marginal domestic fields. GAIL with its expansion plans for pipelines and gas procurement and supply contracts seems to be well placed to make the most of demand supply gap. Also, we expect the company's performance to improve further once it completes expansion of high margin Petrochemical segment by FY14.
As far as regulatory issues are concerned, we believe that with downward revisions in transmission tariffs in the recent past, the worst is over. Also, the concerns over a cut down in marketing margins of gas trading segment seem overdone as margins on major chunk of gas traded by GAIL are already approved by the Government.
Since our last recommendation, the stock price has fallen by around 30%. As explained above, we believe that the stock price correction is overdone on near term concerns and offers a great buying opportunity to investors. Hence, we suggest a 'Buy'.
GAIL least vulnerable to cut in marketing margin risk: As the regulator is coming down hard on players in the gas industry, there is a risk to marketing margins of the profitable players. However, marketing margins charged by GAIL on gas produced in India (more than 80% of the trading portfolio) are already approved by the Government. As far as margins on imported gas are concerned, they are unlikely to come under the purview of PNGRB (Petroleum and Natural Gas Regulatory Board).
Further hit on transmission tariffs unlikely: The transmission tariffs for around 75% of GAIL's existing transmission network have been slashed by Petroleum and Natural Gas Regulatory Board (PNGRB) in the recent past. Hence, we believe that the worst is past the company in this regard and chances of a further downward revision are unlikely. Despite the revisions and fall in domestic gas supplies, GAIL has managed to maintain transmission segment revenues at the levels reported in FY11.
LNG port capacity expansion to address volume shortage concerns: The fall in the gas volumes is a key overhang on the stock. As domestic gas supplies are falling, GAIL has shifted to imported gas to meet the domestic demand. Currently, the LNG ports in the country operate at more than 100% capacity. However, they are in an expansion phase and are expected to commence new capacities soon.
GAIL's Dabhol LNG terminal with a capacity of 5 million tonnes per annum (MMTPA) is also expected to receive cargoes in October 2012. As per the management guidance, it should operate at full capacity in FY15. Further, with expansion of Dahej's LNG and Kochi terminal, we expect the gas supplies to improve and soothe volume concerns.

Source: Company data

Expansion of Petrochem division capacity to boost performance: In Petrochem division (8% contribution to turnover and 27% contribution to pretax profits in FY12), GAIL is already working on doubling the capacity of existing plant at Pata, up from 450 kilo tonnes per annum (ktpa) to 900 ktpa. Once that happens, we believe the company's performance to get a substantial boost. Besides, the company is also planning to set up a Petchem complex at Assam (280,000 tonnes per annum). We expect the segment to provide strong revenue visibility and lend support to profit margins from FY15 and onwards.
Expansion of transmission capacities: GAIL is planning to expand its transmission capacity from 180 mscmd (million standard cubic metres per day) currently to 300 mscmd by investing in transmission pipelines in next two three years. By that time, we expect the gas supplies to improve substantially (as supplies from extended capacities of LNG ports come onstream and domestic gas supplies improve from marginal fields) and regulatory uncertainties to settle down.
Considering the perennial demand supply gap in Indian gas sector, we believe that GAIL will maintain its leadership position and first mover advantage in the industry and reap benefits in the long run.
Expanding across the value chain: A presence across the value chain lends more stability to a firm's operations, increases synergies and diversifies and minimizes risk. GAIL is an entity that is diversified not just horizontally, operating in different segments, but also vertically - right from Exploration and Production (E&P) to participation in 31 blocks in City Gas Distribution (CGD) through subsidiaries like GAIL Gas and Joint Ventures (JV) like IndraPrastha Gas (IGL) and Mahanagar Gas. Subject to the approval of PNGRB, the company plans to extend presence in more cities through its other JVs.
Better appeal than other fuels from a cost point of view: Fuels like Petrol, diesel and coal are substitutes of natural gas. The recent increase in Petrol prices, shortage of coal and impending increase in diesel prices should all work to boost up the appeal of natural gas as a fuel. Recently, the Finance Minister in the Budget has suggested full basic duty exemptions to power plant fuels like natural gas and LNG. Apart from these, a thrust on environmental reforms will push the demand for cleaner fuel like natural gas/LNG.
Financially strong to fund expansion plans: GAIL's debt to equity ratio currently stands at 0.23. It has plans for capex worth Rs 73.5 bn in FY13 and plans to fund 60% of it through borrowings. We believe that the company's financials lend enough comfort to raise that amount for borrowings. It's gearing levels post this are expected to increase to over 40% from currently which is well within comfort zone.

Investment Concerns

Volume stagnation with extended transmission network: GAIL is on a network expansion spree and intends to expand its transmission network from 9500 km to 14,000 km and transmission capacity from 180 mscmd to 300 mscmd over next two to three years. Any kind of negative development - structural or policy based, that affects availability of domestic gas or imported gas poses the biggest risk to company's prospects in the future. This could lead to the risk of capacity under utilization and poor returns in invested capital Marketing margins could be capped: While in the present the chances of this happening are unlikely, in future it all depends upon Government's views and policies. It may give the Board the power to decide the marketing margins. However, coming up with and implementation of any such development is going to be a long process and we believe that imported gas will be kept out of regulator's purview. Lack of clarity on subsidy sharing: GAIL being a significant player in the upstream segment is expected to compensate for a part of under recoveries that state run oil marketing companies incur on selling LPG, PDS Kerosene and diesel at controlled rates. As of now, there is no fixed mechanism to share it and it is decided on an adhoc basis. This uncertainty regarding subsidy outflow remains a key concern as it can drag the profitability. In FY12, GAIL's net profit growth was limited to just 3% YoY due to 51% YoY growth in the subsidies to Rs 31.8 bn. Without it, the net profit growth would have stood at 17% YoY. Delay in supplies from incremental LNG import terminal capacities: Despite a substantial fall in domestic gas supplies, GAIL has been able to maintain transmission volumes almost at the previous year levels by substituting domestic supplies with imported gas (mainly spot cargoes). In the near future, the volumes from imported gas are expected to lead to growth in transmission volumes. The incremental volumes are expected to come from incremental LNG port capacities. However, since existing ports (Petronet's Dahej terminal) are already operating at more than full capacity, any delay in commissioning of new capacities /ports will lead to stagnation in transmission volumes. Petchem division margins may come under pressure: Post capacity expansion, the Petrochemical division may have to work on costlier imported gas. If the prices of the end products don't increase in a similar proportion, it may adversely impact the margins. Also, higher supplies from Middle East pose a risk.

Background

Source: Company data

GAIL is the country's largest gas transmission and gas trading company. It has more than 75% share in domestic gas transmission and over 50% share in natural gas trading. While Natural Gas trading remains the major revenue driver of the company with 74% contribution in FY12, Natural Gas transmission drives the company's profitability (38% contribution to pretax profits in FY12).
In FY12, GAIL handled 117.6 million standard cubic meters per day (mmscmd) of gas transmission. The company has a pipeline network of 9,500 kms in place with a transmission capacity of over 180 mmscmd which it plans to expand to 300 mscmd (pipeline length expansion to 15,000 from 9500 km) in next two three years.
GAIL is a significant player in Petrochemicals business with a production capacity of around 450,000 tonnes per annum and enjoys a market share of around 21% in the segment. The company further plans to expand the capacity of Petrochemical division by 100%.
It is also involved in manufacturing LPG and liquid hydrocarbons, LPG transmission, City Gas Distribution and has presence in the upstream segment (participation in 31 Exploration and Production/Coal bed methane gas blocks).

Industry prospects

Last one year has been quite eventful for gas energy sector in India. The domestic gas supplies from a key source - Reliance's KG D6 fields have fallen drastically half and are expected to decline further. As the demand of gas remains strong, the domestic gas at subsidized prices is being replaced by costlier imported gas (regasified liquid natural gas - RLNG). Still, after a strong supply phase in the last two years, the growth in the gas supplies will be slower until the incremental capacities at LNG importing terminals start operating.
Also, there have been significant changes on the regulatory front. Petroleum and Natural Gas Regulatory Board (PNGRB) has been quite active during the year with downward revisions in pipeline tariffs and there are fears of a cap on marketing margins on gas trading.
In the background of above developments, India still remains an under penetrated market as far as share of gas energy in meeting energy needs is concerned. With cost of alternate fuels rising and environmental norms becoming tougher, we expect the demand of natural gas to remain robust. This means that we will need to either augment domestic supplies or substitute them with the imported gas. Also, once gas supplies come at healthy levels, the clear winner will be the player that has enough supplies and transmission capacity already in place. GAIL being the largest player in gas energy space with further capacity expansion plans and with its proactive approach in tying up contracts for LNG seems well placed to benefit.

Key management personnel

Mr. B.C. Tripathi - Chairman & MD, is a Mechanical Engineer. He joined GAIL during its inception in 1984 from ONGC. He was one of the initial team members involved in the construction and commissioning of the HVJ pipeline system. He subsequently assumed charge as General Manager (Projects) and later as Executive Director (Projects). He took over as Director (Marketing) in July 2007. He has over 28 years experience in the natural gas Sector.
Mr. S. Venkatraman - Director, Business Development is in charge of GAIL's Business Development, Project Development, Petrochemical operations, Exploration & Production and global ventures of the Company. He joined GAIL as Manager in December 1990 and served at various levels across different departments including Business Development, Marketing and Projects. Prior to his assignment as Executive Director (BD), he was in charge of Marketing for various products of GAIL
Mr. P.K Jain- Director Finance is a CA and an MBA in Finance from the University of HULL, United Kingdom, Mr. Jain has an experience of over 34 years in Finance and Accounts and worked as Executive Director (Internal Audit) before joining as Director (Finance). Mr. Jain has wide exposure and expertise in the area of financial and treasury management. He also has a rich experience in the area of project evaluation, financial appraisal of projects and headed finance team during execution of major projects of GAIL like pipelines, petrochemicals, E&P, Pricing, Tariff Determination, Risk Management and Internal audit. In GAIL, he has been involved in various specialized areas including mergers and acquisitions with due-diligence exercises of overseas ventures, finalization of LNG Purchase agreement from Ras Gas, Qatar for Petronet LNG Ltd. (Joint Venture of GAIL).

Risk Analysis

Sector: Domestic Natural gas supplies have fallen drastically and are expected to go down further. The regulator also seems to be coming hard on the gas sector players. From a medium term perspective, the concerns regarding supplies and viability of business stand valid. That said, the future of the sector in the long term looks strong. As demand of gas continues to outpace supply and new supplies expected from imports and marginal domestic gas fields, we believe the sector will see a lot of progress in the times to come. Hence, we assign a 'medium' risk rating to the company on this parameter.
Company's standing: GAIL has the largest market share in most of the segments that it is present in. Even as the entire gas sector is facing issues of domestic supply shortage, the company management has been very proactive in securing contracts for imported gas. As far as regulatory risk is concerned, the company has already faced a downward revision in transmission tariffs and the worst seems to be past the company. Hence, we assign a 'Strong' rating.
Sales: GAIL generated average revenues to the tune of nearly Rs 279 bn (US$ 5.1 bn) each year over the last five years. Further, in the latest financial year (FY12), the company has earned over Rs 400 bn. We, thus, assign a low-risk rating of 9 to the stock.
Operating margin: Operating margin is a measurement of what proportion of a company's revenue is left over after paying for variable costs of production such as raw materials, wages, and sales and marketing costs. A healthy operating margin is required for a company to be able to pay for its fixed costs, such as interest on debt. The higher the margin, the better it is for the company as it indicates its operating efficiency. GAIL's average operating margins for the past five years stands at around 18%. For FY12, the margins stood at around 14.1% and going forward, we them to come down marginally. As such, we assign a medium risk rating of 6 to the stock on this parameter.
Long term EPS growth: GAIL has grown its net profits at a CAGR of 9.2% in the past three years. GAIL is the leading player in gas segment and demand of gas in the country remains high. As per our estimates, average annual profit growth comes at 12.5% over the next three years. As such we assign a medium risk rating of 5 to the stock on this parameter.
Return on capital invested (ROIC): ROIC is an important tool to assess a company's potential to be a quality investment by determining how well the management is able to allocate capital to its operations for future growth. A ROIC of above 15% is considered decent for companies that are in an expansionary phase. GAIL's last five years' average ROIC stands at around 24% . For the next three years, we expect it to remain in the range of 14% -15%. This is on account of massive capex that GAIL has planned. Hence, we have assigned a medium-risk rating of 6 to the stock on this parameter.
Dividend payout: A stable dividend history inspires confidence in the management's intentions of rewarding shareholders. GAIL's average payout ratio has been a decent 28% over the past 5 fiscals and we expect it to maintain the payout ratio. Thus, we have assigned a low-risk rating of 9.
Promoter holding: A larger share of promoter holding indicates the confidence of the people who run it. We believe that a greater than 40% promoter holding indicates safety for retail investors. Promoter shareholding in GAIL at the end of March 2012 stood at 57%. As such, we assign a low risk rating of 9 to the stock on this parameter.
FII holding: We believe that FII holding of greater than 14% can lead to high volatility in the stock price. The FII holding in GAIL at the end of March 2012 stood at 13.3%. Based on our parameters, we have assigned a medium risk rating of 6.
Liquidity: The average daily trading volumes of GAIL's stock over the past 52 weeks stand at nearly 12, 23,570 shares. This level of liquidity level is a matter of comfort, as this might protect the stock from undue volatility in case of exchange of large holdings among market participants/investors. The rating assigned is 9.
Current ratio: This indicates if the company is comfortably placed to pay off its short-term obligations, which gives comfort to its lenders .GAIL's average current ratio during the period FY08 to FY12 has been 1.3 times. As per our estimates, the ratio should decline marginally to 1.0 by the end of FY15. We assign a medium-risk rating of 5.
Debt to equity ratio: A highly leveraged business is the first to get hit during times of economic downturn, as companies have to consistently pay interest costs, despite lower profitability. Although GAIL's average debt to equity ratio has been 0.21 over the past five fiscals, it is set to increase over the next three on the back of its aggressive borrowing programme. We have assigned a medium-risk rating of 6 to the stock.
Interest coverage ratio: It is used to determine how comfortably a company is placed in terms of payment of interest on outstanding debt. The interest coverage ratio is calculated by dividing company's earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) by its interest expense for a given period. The lower the ratio, the greater are the risks. GAIL's average interest coverage ratio has been above 50 the past five years . It is expected to be in the range of 18 to 21 over the next three years which is in our comfort zone. We assign a low risk rating of 9 to the stock on this parameter.
P/E Ratio: The P/E ratio (price-to-earnings ratio) of a stock is a measure of the price paid for a share relative to the per share income or profit earned by the company. This is one of the important metrics to judge the attractiveness of a stock and thus gets the highest weightage in our risk matrix. GAIL's P/E on trailing twelve month earnings stand at 11.5 times. As such, we have assigned low risk rating of 7 to the stock on this parameter.
Considering the above analysis, the total ranking assigned to the company is 86 that, on a weighted basis, stands at 7.1. This makes the stock a low risk investment from a long-term perspective.

Risk Matrix

		Rating accorded

Rating	*Weightage (A)**	Rating# (B)	*Weighted (AB)**

Sector risk	-	Medium	NA

Company's standing	-	Strong	NA

Performance parameters

Sales	5.0%	9	0.5

Operating margins	5.0%	6	0.3

Long term EPS growth	10.0%	5	0.5

Return on invested capital	10.0%	6	0.6

Technical parameters

Dividend payout	5.0%	9	0.5

Promoter holding	10.0%	9	0.9

FII holding	5.0%	6	0.3

Liquidity	10.0%	9	0.9

Safety parameters

Current ratio	5.0%	5	0.3

Debt to equity ratio	10.0%	6	0.6

Interest coverage ratio	5.0%	9	0.5

P/E ratio	20.0%	7	1.4

Final Rating**		86	7.1

Valuations

At the current stock price Rs 332, GAIL's stock is trading at a multiple of 8.1 times our estimated FY15 earnings. In the last one year, the stock has lost around 25%. While the falling gas domestic gas volumes do remain a concern for the sector, the market valuations suggest this has been more than priced in.
With regards to regulatory risk, transmission tariffs for more around three fourths of the existing pipeline capacity have already been revised. Since GAIL will be focusing more on the business from LNG sales, we believe that it is unlikely that its marketing margins (on imported gas) will be regulated.
As per our estimates, GAIL's standalone earnings will register an average annual growth of 12.5% over FY12-FY15E. As per our valuations using Sum of the Parts (SoTP) method, our target price implies a point to point return of around 43% from the current levels. Our target for the stock stands at Rs 475 from a 3 years perspective. This translates to an average annualized return of around 13.6%. Hence, we recommend a 'BUY' on the stock of the company.

Valuations

(Standalone nos, Rs m)	FY12A	FY13E	FY14E	FY15E

Net sales (Rs m)	403,980	473,498	569,617	680,691

Net profit (Rs m)	36,539	39,816	44,770	51,971

No. of shares (m)	1,268	1,268	1,268	1,268

EPS (Rs)	28.8	31.4	35.3	41.0

BVPS (Rs)	170	191	214	240

Price to earnings (x)	11.5	10.6	9.4	8.1

Price to sales (x)	1.0	0.9	0.7	0.6

Price to book value (x)	1.9	1.7	1.6	1.4

Source:Company data,Equitymaster estimates

Financials at a glance

Standalone (Rs m)	FY12A	FY13E	FY14E	FY14E

Sales	403,980	473,498	569,617	680,691

Sales growth (%)	24.1%	17.5%	20.3%	19.5%

Operating profit (EBITDA)	56,981	63,922	75,189	85,767

Operating profit margin (%)	14.1%	13.5%	13.2%	12.6%

Net profit	36,539	39,816	44,770	51,971

Net profit margin (%)	9.1%	8.4%	7.9%	7.6%



Balance Sheet

Fixed assets	260,678	322,445	383,462	417,980

Current assets	94,680	120,286	136,684	162,407

Investments	35,489	38,100	43,100	48,100

Total assets	390,847	480,831	563,247	628,487



Current liabilities	101,865	121,068	144,495	176,084

Net worth	216,245	242,026	271,014	304,666

Total debt	66,580	111,580	141,580	141,580

Other liabilities	6,158	6,158	6,158	6,158

Total liabilities	390,847	480,831	563,247	628,487

Source:Estimates & Company data

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Weekly Beeps - Markets Closed First Week Of FY13, On A Positive Note 08-04-2012

2012-04-08T21:20:00.000+05:30

The markets opened the new fiscal year on a positive note and held the gains for the short three-day week after closing the first week of FY13 marginally in the green zone. Both Sensex and Nifty closed the week at a higher level by almost 0.50 per cent. One of the major events was in the form of the HSBC Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) which provided a hint of the economy still facing headwinds and that growth may come after a while. For March the services’ PMI decreased by 420 basis points to 52.3 while the manufacturing index at 190 basis points was 54.7, indicating that the feeling of confidence among Indian businesses is still lacking. With inflation for March inching upwards there is a diminishing chance of the RBI cutting the interest rate in its next meet. It seems that the economy may once again move towards a high inflation and high interest rate environment.

Yet another important factor was the government initiating a presidential directive to force Coal India (CIL) to sign fuel supply agreements (FSAs) with power companies to assure 80 per cent fuel supply. This move will benefit power companies currently affected by coal shortages but on the other hand, it will be difficult for CIL to meet the increasing demand from the power sector. Another twist during the week was that the government left the petrol and diesel prices unchanged. After crude hovering around USD 125 per barrel, the markets had expected a hike in fuel prices from April 1 but the government did not take any action. However, consumers should be prepared for an upward revision in prices in the near term as this may just be a postponement of sorts.

On the global front, the Spanish and Italian bond auction received a poor response, resulting in the bond yield to move higher, thereby raising fresh concerns over the sovereign debt crisis. The US economy continued to be in the negative zone after investors considered the reality of no new monetary stimulus from the Federal Reserve. Among the other Asian markets Japanese market closed lower the week following the other global markets while Hang seng and Shanghai closed higher this week. This was after the Chinese government announced that it would double the limit of foreign investors who wish to invest in equities, bonds and fixed deposits.

Back home, among the sectoral indices, consumer durables was among the leading index gainer that closed higher with a whopping 6.39 per cent. Other sectors like capital goods, power, Bankex and Realty closed the week higher in the range of 1 to 3.50 per cent. There were only two sectors which closed the week at a lower level viz. auto and healthcare at 0.70 and 0.84 per cent respectively.

Among the individual stocks, Pantaloon Retail was one of the biggest index gainers, up by 20 per cent to Rs 174.40 on the back of news that the company is planning to reduce its debt of around Rs 5,000 crore. Rural Electrification Corporation (REC) closed the week higher by 16.53 per cent to Rs 226.95 after the Tamil Nadu Electricity Commission (TNEC) increased the power tariff by 37 per cent. REC’s shares zoomed up on the hope that the electricity board may now repay its dues in a timely manner. Other stocks like Bajaj Finserv, TTK Prestige, Crisil, etc closed the week higher by more than 13 per cent. BHEL closed the week higher by almost 6.5 per cent to Rs 273.55 after it announced its flash results for FY12, wherein both net sales and profit after tax increased by 14 per cent on a YoY basis.

On the other hand, Opto Circuit was one of the biggest losers, down almost by 6 per cent to Rs 187.90. Suzlon Energy also closed down by 4 per cent to Rs 25.15 after the company divested in its wind farm assets to raise around USD 40 million and also on the back of the reconstitution of its board of directors. Some of the other stocks which were in the negative territory for the week were Jindal Steel & Power, Apollo Hospitals and Pidilite Industries.

In conclusion, we expect the market to remain volatile for the next week as the result season will take off. IT major Infosys will come out with its earning next week and one must watch out for the management guidance which will provide cues for the sector as well as for the markets. We advise investors to remain cautious and stick to stock-specific bets rather than go bullish on any particular sector ahead of the March quarter results. Broadly speaking, the market remains in a trading range and may continue to be so in the run up to the April 17 policy meeting of the RBI.

www.buzibiz.com

Weekly Beeps - Markets End 3rd Consecutive Week On Negative Note; IIP + RBI Policy Review + Railway + Union Budget – Eventful Week Ahead 11-03-2012

2012-03-10T20:20:00.001+05:30

Seven weeks up and three weeks down; that is the YTD score as far as the Indian markets are concerned. The degree of damage this week was minimal,partly due to a public holiday and partly because of Friday’s rally. The key indices rebounded from 200-DMA, which could be seen as a sign of resilience. But, we need to see decisive and bold policy action from the Centre if the main indices are to rise substantially from here.

Benchmark Indices
Index	2-Mar-12	9-Mar-12	% Change
SENSEX	17636.80	17503.24	-0.76
NIFTY	5359.35	5333.55	-0.48
Hang Seng	21562.26	21086.00	-2.21
Nikkei	9777.03	9929.74	1.56
Shanghai	2460.69	2439.46	-0.86
Dow Jones*	12980.30	12907.94	-0.56
S&P 500*	1374.09	1365.91	-0.60
NASDAQ*	2988.97	2970.42	-0.62
Bovespa*	66809.80	66908.39	0.15
FTSE*	5931.25	5859.73	-1.21
DAX*	6941.77	6834.54	-1.54
CAC*	3499.73	3478.36	-0.61
* closing till Thursday

For a major part of the week the markets remained on a subdued and negative note, owing to the dismal defeat that Congress faced in the recently concluded assembly elections in the states of UP, Punjab and Uttarakhand. However, on Friday, the markets turned positive as the sentiments on the streets were charged up by the MCX IPO listing at a premium and as traders and investors retorted to some short covering. Late evening the RBI announced a cut in the CRR by 75 bps to 4.75 per cent in order to inject liquidity into the system worth Rs 48,000 crore. This development by the RBI is very positive for the bank stocks as it will empower them with higher credit facility.

Key Global Indicators
Index	2-Mar-12	9-Mar-12	% Change
Gold	28,027	27,940	-0.31
Silver	58,702	58,796	0.16
Crude Oil (Brent)	125	125	0.07
Crude Oil (Nymex)	108	107	-1.22

On the global front, most markets ended the week on a weak and subdued note with the exception of Nikkei which managed to cross the 10,000 mark after seven months. Amongst major global developments which kept the markets subdued were China’s decision to cut the country’s growth target to 7.5 per cent for 2012 from the goal of 8 per cent in place since 2005 in a bid to find leeway for the promised economic and welfare reforms while delivering stability ahead of a leadership transition later this year. However, on Thursday, the markets were lifted as Greece completed a crucial debt swap with private creditors on clearing the way for the country to substantially lower its debt burden and moving it closer to receiving a badly needed second official bailout.

Currency Rate
Index	2-Mar-12	9-Mar-12	% Change
USD	49.50	50.11	1.23
EURO	65.59	66.48	1.35
GBP	78.82	78.96	0.18
JYP (per 100)	60.75	61.18	0.70

After witnessing some heavy volatility during the month of February 2012, the global oil prices have managed to find some calm as the prices remained flat throughout the week. The FII turnover for this week was positive at Rs 1,235 crore, despite the markets having ended on a negative note. However, rupee woes have seemed to re-enter the markets as it depreciated by 1.2 per cent during the week to levels of over Rs 50.

Back home, among the sectoral indices, the metals’ index was the worst performer as it tanked by almost 4 per cent. This was due to a cut in the GDP forecast by China, signalling subdued demand. Oil and gas also closed down by 3 per cent due to a major disappointment with the ONGC FPO. On the other hand, indices like consumer durables, automobiles, FMCG, Bankex, etc closed on the higher side.

Top Losers
Scrip	CMP	% Change (WoW)
Adani Enter	317.80	-13.17
Hindalco	134.60	-10.65
Pantaloon	162.55	-10.49
Chambal Fert	79.90	-8.37
SterliteInds	114.45	-7.74
MANAPRMGNFIN	38.75	-7.19
Mundra Port	135.40	-7.04
Essar Oils	57.65	-7.02
SAIL	94.85	-6.96
Hind Zinc	131.75	-6.92

Among the individual stocks, CESC was the lead gainer, up by almost 9 per cent during the week on the back of reports that it had hiked the power tariff which will result into better revenue, thus boosting the bottomline. Other stocks like Piramal Healthcare, Max India, Yes Bank, etc were among the stocks which moved northwards. On the other hand, Adani Enterprise was the leading loser - down by almost 13 per cent due to news reports about the government probing alleged money laundering by the company.

Top Gainers
Scrip	CMP	% Change (WoW)
CESC	290.50	9.27
Piram.Health	483.20	9.03
Max India	174.60	7.71
Yes Bank	365.10	7.37
Tech Mahindr	639.90	7.27
Reliance Pow	131.00	6.9
IDFC	145.55	6.16
BritaniaInds	554.25	5.6
CastrolIndia	507.30	5.6
SyndicateBan	115.30	5.49

Pantaloons was down by around 10 per cent on the back of speculation that the government may come out with a populist budget and may not allow FDI in multi-brand retail. Other metal stocks like Hindalco, Hindustan Zinc and Sterlite Industries were among the top losers on the back of China forecasting lower GDP growth rate.

In conclusion, we expect the volatility to continue on the bourses next week as big events next week on the domestic calendar will be the RBI policy meet and the Union Budget. IIP, inflation data and advance tax numbers are also due next week. On the global front, watch out for the FOMC policy meeting.

Given the number of important events, things are likely to be quite choppy next week. Therefore, one needs to take a measured approach. Examine the outcomes of various events before jumping the gun.

Weekly Technical Analysis of the Indian Stock & Share Market

Most Active Stocks

The 20 most active stocks traded in terms of value of shares traded and their weekly % change.

Security Name	Close	% Change
STATE BANK	2226.40	-1.09
ICICI BANK	914.20	1.02
RELIANCE INDS	773.80	-4.88
RELIANCE INFRASTRUCTURE	639.45	2.85
TATA MOTORS	280.65	4.73
LARSEN & TOUBRO	1302.35	0.26
RELIANCE POWER	131.10	1.70
AXIS BANK	1213.40	3.52
TATA STEEL	455.20	-2.66
HDFC	680.50	1.77
INFOSYS	2855.30	-0.10
DLF	204.05	0.44
HOUSING DEV & INFRA	104.05	-1.47
RELIANCE CAPITAL	420.25	-1.64
JAIPRAKASH ASSOC	78.20	5.03
HINDALCO	134.60	-8.94
JSW STEEL	748.10	-4.95
MAHINDRA & MAHIN	676.95	-0.20
ITC	208.25	1.58
BHEL	278.75	-5.88

Biggest Weekly % Gainers

The following list shows the stocks (over Rs.10/share) that had the biggest gains over last week. Gains are measured on a percentage basis. For example, a stock moving from 20 to 25 had a 5 point or 25% gain. Often stocks appearing on this list had some type of positive news (e.g., big earnings report, new product announcement, etc.).

Security Name	Close	% Change
NEHA INTERNATIONAL	50.75	30.13
GLODYNE TECHNOSERVE	285.05	25.93
WHEELS (I)	600.40	17.91
SE INVESTMENTS	307.10	17.57
SUPREME PETROCHE	56.35	17.40
SANGHVI FORGING AND ENGINEERING	54.40	15.87
BINANI INDS	136.00	15.50
GOA CARBON	79.70	12.97
ENERGY DEVELOPMENT CO	42.90	12.60
AP PAPER MILLS	180.15	12.03
ADVANTA (I)	364.30	11.99
SUPREME INFRASTRUCTURE (I)	242.85	10.49

Biggest Weekly % Losers

The following list shows the stocks (over Rs.10/share) that had the biggest losses over last week. Losses are measured on a percentage basis. For example, a stock moving from 20 to 15 had a 5 point or 25% loss. Often stocks appearing on this list had some type of negative news (e.g., bad earnings report, lower analyst rating, product delay announcement, etc.).

Security Name	Close	% Change
RESPONSIVE INDS	86.45	-23.46
VLS FINANCE	16.00	-19.60
SURYA PHARMACEUTICALS	11.75	-16.07
RAVI KUMAR DISTILLERIES	12.15	-14.13
BHAGYANAGAR (I)	16.15	-12.70
KINGFISHER AIRLINES	21.00	-12.68
EMKAY GLOBAL FINANCIAL SERVICES	33.95	-12.27
HBL POWER SYSTEMS	16.05	-12.05
INDIAN HUME PIPE	107.40	-11.75
DQ ENTERTAINMENT (INTERNATIONAL)	22.55	-11.74
PANTALOON RETAIL	162.55	-11.61
ADANI ENTERPRISE	317.55	-11.55
ELECTROTHERM	80.05	-11.50
GOENKA DIAMOND & JEWELS	59.95	-11.19
STERLING BIOTECH	11.15	-11.16
EIH	87.90	-10.76
HINDUJA FOUNDRIES	59.50	-10.53
ICSA (I)	22.95	-10.53
MADHUCON PROJECTS	58.50	-10.28
JUBILANT INDUSTRIES	281.75	-10.18
EON ELECTRIC	35.55	-10.11

Stocks with Bullish Engulfing Patterns.

The following stocks have been trending downward in the short and intermediate terms and have formed a bullish engulfing pattern. The probability of an upward reversal in prices has increased.

Security Name	Close
ABB	846.45
ALSTOM PROJECTS	373.20
EMMBI POLYARNS	13.85
GOA CARBON	79.70
KWALITY DAIRY (I)	40.60
MARG	90.90
MIRZA INTL	19.70
MUTHOOT FINANCE	163.60

Stocks with Bearish Engulfing Patterns.

The following stocks have been trending upward in the short and intermediate terms and have formed a bearish engulfing pattern. The probability of a downward reversal in prices has increased.

Security Name	Close
BHARAT PETROLEUM	664.30
GRAVITA (I)	702.25
MAHINDRA LIFESPACE DEVELOPERS	318.95
ORACLE FINANCIAL SERVICES SOFTWARE	2575.40
TEXMO PIPES & PRODUCTS	23.10

% Volume Change

The following list shows all stocks whose volumes surged by more than 100% this week compared to the previous week. Upward price movement on large volume change is a bullish (positive) sign for the stock if the stock has been flat or trending downward. Downward price movement on large volume change is a bearish (negative) sign for the stock if the stock has been flat or trending upward. Stocks are arranged in descending order of volume change.

Security Name	Close	% Change	Volume	% Change
SUPREME PETROCHE	56.35	17.39	1029113	3042
ENERGY DEVELOPMENT CO	42.90	12.59	471909	1365
AP PAPER MILLS	180.15	12.03	2184658	1017
GOA CARBON	79.70	12.96	323099	847
BINANI INDS	136.00	15.49	333613	773
WHEELS (I)	600.40	17.91	1244075	302
RAVI KUMAR DISTILLERIES	12.15	-14.14	267436	288
SUPREME INFRASTRUCTURE (I)	242.85	10.48	308454	202
GLODYNE TECHNOSERVE	285.05	25.93	4856516	177
SURYA PHARMACEUTICALS	11.75	-16.08	1033274	125
HINDUJA FOUNDRIES	59.50	-10.53	4761	104

New Intermediate Uptrend

Prices of stocks (and other entities) rise and fall due to changes in the supply and demand relationships between buyers and sellers of the stock. The causes of the changing supply and demand relationships are many, but the effect of these changes shows up in the changing stock prices.

The following list shows all stocks & indices beginning a new intermediate uptrend. A new intermediate uptrend normally begins with an upside breakout when demand outstrips supply after a series of falling tops and bottoms.

Security Name	Close
ADVANTA (I)	364.30
ANSAL HOUSING	45.75
AP PAPER MILLS	180.15
BINANI INDS	136.00
CASTROL (I)	507.95
COLGATE PALMOLIV	1062.80
GLODYNE TECHNOSERVE	285.05
NATCO PHARMA	296.15
SUPREME PETROCHE	56.35
TIME TECHNOPLAST	54.80

New Intermediate Downtrend

Prices of stocks (and other entities) rise and fall due to changes in the supply and demand relationships between buyers and sellers of the stock. The causes of the changing supply and demand relationships are many, but the effect of these changes shows up in the changing stock prices.

The following list shows all stocks beginning a new intermediate downtrend. A new intermediate downtrend normally begins with a breakdown when supply soaks up all demand after a series of rising tops and bottoms.

Security Name	Close
ALEMBIC	17.10
INOX LEISURE	47.55
ISMT	27.95
JYOTI STRUCTURE	45.10
MAHINDRA HOLIDAYS & RESORTS (I)	278.15
MANGALORE CHEMICALS & FERTILIZERS	39.20
MICRO TECHNOLOGIES (I)	166.90
RESPONSIVE INDS	86.45
SURYA PHARMACEUTICALS	11.75
TECPRO SYSTEMS	162.90

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Multi Bagger - PTC India Financial Services 10-02-2012

2012-02-10T17:49:00.004+05:30

NSE ID : PFS

Key Highlights

Net Profit after tax for the current quarter increased 914.3% YoY (155.8% QoQ) to `579.0 mn from `57.1 mn for Q3FY11 and `226.4 mn for Q2FY12. During the current quarter, PFS has concluded the sale of its stake in Ind Barath Powergencom Limited and has realized a gain of `478.6 mn (total gain of `607.3 mn recognized in nine months ended 31st December 2011) which aided growth in net profit. If excluded for gain on sale of investment and tax thereon, PAT amounts to `171.1 mn for Q3 FY12 compared to `57.1 mn in Q3FY11 and `116.3 mn in Q2 FY12 (growth of 199.6% YoY and 47.1% QoQ).

Outstanding loan book as on Q3FY12 was `10.65 bn as against `9.87 bn on Q2FY12 and `6.00 bn as on Q3FY11, registering a YoY growth of 77.5% (7.9% QoQ). The total effective debt sanctions as at the end of Q3FY12 aggregated to `49.79 bn compared to `33.34 bn at the end of FY11, recording growth of 49%. Post Q3FY12 till date, the company has further sanctioned loans of `12.63 bn to 9 power projects which included both conventional and renewable projects. The management has indicated that there is increasing number of proposals for mezzanine/short-term funding and for renewable projects, which may result in to quicker disbursement going forward.

Pursuant to the stake sale in Ind-Barath Powergencom Ltd during the quarter equity investment book stood at ~4.2 bn as against ~4.65 bn at the end of Q2FY12. Post Q2FY12, the Company has executed necessary agreements for divesting its part stake in Indian Energy Exchange Limited and is awaiting the FIPB approval for the same. The company plans to take its equity investment book to ~5 bn by the end of the current fiscal.

NIM during the quarter stood at ~8.1% (excluding interest on fixed deposits) as against 5.8% for Q2FY12 and 6.9% for Q3FY12. The expansion in NIMs was largely on the back of lower cost of borrowing through ECBs and deployment of IPO proceeds during the quarter. The overall yield on assets during the quarter increased by ~66 bps as against a decline of 47 bps in the cost of funds. Consequently, the spread during the quarter increased by 113 bps sequentially. The company has further headroom to raise funds upto $55 mn through ECB in the coming quarters. The management expects share of bank borrowing to come down going forward to ~20.0% by FY14E, while NCDs, ECBs and infrastructure bonds are likely to constitute around 40.0%, 30.0% and 10.0% respectively.

Asset quality continued to remain strong with Nil NPA as of Q3FY12. The management is confident to keep asset quality under check going forward. The management do not foresee any restructuring in any of the projects in which the company has an exposure.

Outlook & Valuation:

We believe there is value in the company considering its equity investment book and zero exposure to distribution companies. However, environmental clearance, fuel security and linkages, long term PPA's and overall timely execution are critical to the success of projects and therefore its Equity and debt investments. We have reduced our target multiple for loan financing book to 0.7x for FY13E considering various concerns that is currently prevailing in the power sector. Added to this, we have also applied a discount of 10.0% to our earlier valuation of the company's equity investment book taking into consideration the inherent risk in private equity type model and the current apprehensions in the sector. Consequently, our revised target price stands at 22.0, implying an upside potential of 55% from current levels.

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Weekly beeps: 05-02-2012 Markets Extent Rally Into 5th Week In a Row; Best run in more than a year

2012-02-05T18:02:00.003+05:30

After witnessing a stellar rally in the month of Jan 2012, markets have continued the robust performance into the month of Feb. The SENSEX has rallied by a good 2 per cent for the week ended 3rd Feb 2012. With this the markets have managed to end on a positive note for a 5th week in a row.

Five winning weeks in a row have clearly stunned most market players after last year’s disappointment. The Nifty has convincingly crossed its 200-DMA and has also closed above it for the past four sessions. The Sensex too has pierced the crucial technical barrier. The manner in which the market has rallied has raised expectations of more gains. However, one must not loose sight of the risks confronting the market – both domestic as well as external.

Benchmark Indices
Index	27-Jan-12	3-Feb-12	% Change
SENSEX	17233.98	17604.96	2.15
NIFTY	5204.70	5325.85	2.33
Hang Seng	20501.67	20756.98	1.25
Nikkei	8841.22	8831.93	-0.11
Shanghai	2319.12	2330.40	0.49
Dow Jones*	12734.60	12705.40	-0.23
S&P 500*	1318.43	1325.54	0.54
NASDAQ*	2805.28	2859.68	1.94
Bovespa*	62953.10	64593.10	2.61
FTSE*	5795.20	5796.07	0.02
DAX*	6539.85	6655.63	1.77
CAC*	3363.23	3376.66	0.40
* closing till Thursday

However, the start to the week was completely opposite to the way it’s ended. On Monday the markets tanked by 2.2 per cent, which was pretty much expected on the back of profit taking by investors and traders. However, as the week progressed, a further improvement in HSBC PMI manufacturing data for month of Jan to 57.5 from 54.2 in Dec 2011 helped cheer market sentiments. A good set of Q3 earning from ICICI bank coupled with decent performance from auto manufacturers on the auto sales front helped buoy the markets.

Key Global Indicators
Index	27-Jan-12	3-Feb-12	% Change
Gold	27832	28081	0.89
Silver	56876	57013	0.24
Crude Oil (Brent)	111.23	112.43	1.08
Crude Oil (Nymex)	100.34	97.03	-3.30

On the global front, the mood seems a bit mixed and uncertain. While manufacturing data showed an improving trend in China, Germany and US, a contraction in the same data was seen for countries like Spain, Italy and France. Moreover there seems to be no clarity on Greece’s debt woes for now.

Currency Rate
Index	27-Jan-12	3-Feb-12	% Change
USD	49.65	48.67	-1.96
EURO	65.04	64.15	-1.36
GBP	77.83	77.50	-0.42
JYP (per 100)	64.45	64.17	-0.43

Moving on the rupee seems to be convincingly winning its battle against the dollar. The rupee has managed to break below the Rs 50 levels and currently stands at Rs 48.67 per dollar. As a result of the positive inflows this week, FII net investments in equity now stand at Rs 4040 crore for week ended 03rd Jan 2012.

Sectoral Indices
Category/Index	27-Jan-12	3-Feb-12	Change (%)
Broad
MIDCAP	5,872.36	6,046.10	2.96
SMLCAP	6,491.69	6,686.55	3.00
BSE-100	8,982.13	9,185.35	2.26
BSE-200	2,099.47	2,150.96	2.45
BSE-500	6,554.58	6,717.47	2.49
Sectors
REALTY	1,702.98	1,784.17	4.77
AUTO	9,197.33	9,523.22	3.54
IT	5,721.74	5,912.40	3.33
BANKEX	11,282.33	11,643.84	3.20
TECk	3,463.78	3,569.28	3.05
METAL	11,576.33	11,874.99	2.58
HC	6,261.23	6,411.72	2.40
POWER	2,122.03	2,161.35	1.85
OIL&GAS	8,541.42	8,689.19	1.73
FMCG	4,063.87	4,120.75	1.40
PSU	7,409.00	7,485.77	1.04
CG	10,360.24	10,259.55	-0.97
CD	6,000.46	5,832.41	-2.80

Among the sectoral indices, Realty sector was amongst the top gainers for the week, notching up nearly 5 per cent gains. Auto and IT companies came in next for a second consecutive week at 4 per cent gains. Consumer goods and capital good were the only sectors treading in the red zone. This was mainly on the back of some profit taking by investors and a sharp decline in the share price of BHEL which reported rather week Q3 earnings.

Top Gainers
Scrip	CMP	% Change (WoW)
Tata Tea	119.15	22.46
Sintex Inds	98.1	17.77
Jet Airways	280	15.39
HavellsIndia	492	14.73
JubilantFood	972.45	13.62
Engineers	266.9	12.76
Educomp Solu	243.3	12.38
OrientalBank	288	11.68
ABB	888	11.37
PFC	186.7	11.06

Among the individual stocks, Tata Tea was the top gainer as the company finally cemented its deal with Starbucks Coffee to set up retail coffee shops in the country. Sintex Industries, Jet Airways and Havells India were among the other top gainers for the week. Among the top losers, TTK Prestige topped the list. Glenmark Pharma lost 6 per cent as the company reported dismal Q3 earnings. Domestic refiner IOC also lost 5 per cent this week on reports that it will have to pay over Rs 979 crore in unpaid entry tax to the Uttar Pradesh government within two weeks.

Top Losers
Scrip	CMP	% Change (WoW)
TTK Prestige	2285	-6.36
GlenmarkPhar	296.05	-5.58
IOC	272.6	-5.43
GMDC	176.55	-4.93
Titan Inds	196.45	-4.71
Adani Power	80.45	-4.40
Divis Labora	781.9	-4.38
Coal India	326.2	-4.20
BHEL	263.8	-3.60
JainIrrigatn	100.35	-3.51

Corporate Happenings

Mon, 06^th Feb

Board Meet :

GlaxoSmithkline Consumer Healthcare Ltd

Hindustan Unilever Ltd

India Cements Ltd

National Aluminium Company Ltd

Dena Bank

Adani Power Ltd

Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone Ltd

Quarterly Result :

Dena Bank

Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone Ltd

Tue, 07^th Feb

Board Meet :

Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd

Cadila Healthcare Ltd

Opto Circuits (India) Ltd

GMR Infrastructure Ltd

EGM :

Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd

Quarterly Result :

Cadila Healthcare Ltd

Wed, 08^th Feb

Board Meet :

Bharat Forge Ltd

JSW ISPAT Steel Ltd

Power Grid Corporation of India Ltd

Oil & Natural Gas Corpn Ltd

Jubilant Foodworks Ltd

Bharti Airtel Ltd

Tech Mahindra Ltd

Quarterly Result :

Bharat Forge Ltd

Power Grid Corporation of India Ltd

Bharti Airtel Ltd

Tech Mahindra Ltd

Thu, 09^th Feb

Board Meet :

ACC Ltd

Apollo Tyres Ltd

Ambuja Cements Ltd

Hindalco Industries Ltd

Cummins India Ltd

MRF Ltd

Tata Steel Ltd

Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd

Adani Enterprises Ltd

Rajesh Exports Ltd

Gujarat State Petronet Ltd

AGM :

MRF Ltd

Dividend :

Financial Technologies (India) Ltd

IDBI Bank Ltd

NMDC Ltd

Quarterly Result :

Cummins India Ltd

Tata Steel Ltd

Adani Enterprises Ltd

Fri, 10^th Feb

Board Meet :

Great Eastern Shipping Company Ltd

Tata Chemicals Ltd

Tata Power Company Ltd

Save tax of up to Rs 30,900 per year thanks to deductions under section 80C of the Income Tax Act, 1961

Mutual Fund Scheme	Crisil Rank	AUM (Rs. Crore.)	3yr Return	5yr Return

Canara Robeco Equity Tax Saver	Rank 1	307.47	34.3%	12.5%

(Source - Moneycontrol)

Risk Factor - Mutual Fund Investments are subject to market risks. Please read the Scheme. Information Document carefully before investing.

Weekly Beeps 29-01-2012

2012-01-29T21:59:00.000+05:30

The markets have extended their positive rally for a fourth consecutive week with the Sensex now posting more than 10 per cent gain on a YTD basis. The year 2012 has started off on an excellent note and the Indian markets have been amongst the top performing global indices this year.

Benchmark Indices
Index	20-Jan-12	27-Jan-12	% Change
SENSEX	16739.01	17233.98	2.96
NIFTY	5048.60	5204.70	3.09
Hang Seng	20110.37	20501.67	1.95
Nikkei	8766.36	8841.22	0.85
Shanghai	2319.12	2319.12	0.00
Dow Jones*	12623.98	12734.60	0.88
S&P 500*	1314.50	1318.43	0.30
NASDAQ*	2788.33	2805.28	0.61
Bovespa*	61926.70	62953.10	1.66
FTSE*	5741.15	5795.20	0.94
DAX*	6416.26	6539.85	1.93
CAC*	3328.94	3363.23	1.03
* closing till Thursday

In fact the broader market indices like the small-cap and the mid-cap have outpaced the Sensex, suggesting that it’s not just the bigwigs that are fuelling this rally, but that the smaller names have also had a very crucial part to play. The mid-cap and small-cap indices have notched up healthy gains of 15 per cent and 13 per cent respectively.

The tone of the past week was majorly dictated by the RBI’s decision to cut back on the CRR in order to infuse some much needed liquidity back into the system. While most analysts and experts on the streets expected the RBI to refrain from undertaking any cut-backs in the rate on January 24, the final decision to cut the CRR by 50 bps came as a surprise and the markets cheered the development.

Key Global Indicators
Index	20-Jan-12	27-Jan-12	% Change
Gold	27295	27832	1.97
Silver	53413	56876	6.48
Crude Oil (Brent)	111.12	111.23	0.10
Crude Oil (Nymex)	99.83	100.34	0.51

However, going forward the RBI’s outlook on the overall economy with respect to inflation and fiscal deficit situation is very cautionary. In its policy review the RBI has mentioned that food inflation may bounce back soon and has further raised concerns over the non-abating inflation on petroleum and manufactured goods. It has also nudged the government to de-regulate the diesel prices in order to reduce the subsidy burden and consequently keep the fiscal deficit in check.

On the global front, the mood has turned very mixed and there isn’t any clarity on the news and developments coming in from Europe and the US. In the US, after starting off the New Year on a positive note, the stocks this week have ended flat as investors took some profits off their investments. One of the major developments there was the Fed’s decision to keep the interest rates near the zero levels through late 2014, which is a huge positive for the markets there and worldwide. Europe is, as usual, at its uncertain best. While Greece’s talks with its private lenders are going smooth, the IMF has raised fresh concerns over the zone’s financial health and said that the crisis in Europe could severely impact the global growth prospects.

Consequently, it has sharply cut its global growth rate forecast for 2012 from 4 per cent to 3.3 per cent. The projected growth rate for the year 2013 is now 3.9 per cent. The IMF warned that global growth would come in about two percentage points below its already soft forecast if the European leaders allowed the crisis to festerl.

Currency Rate
Index	20-Jan-12	27-Jan-12	% Change
USD	50.47	49.65	-1.63
EURO	65.23	65.04	-0.30
GBP	78.04	77.83	-0.27
JYP (per 100)	65.39	64.45	-1.44

Moving on, the rupee seems to be convincingly winning its battle against the dollar as the year progresses. The rupee has appreciated further by around 2 per cent this week as investors pumped in more money into the equity markets and shunned the dollar. As a result of the positive inflows this week, the FII net investments in equity now stand at Rs 1,889 for the week ended January 20, 2012 and for the month of January the same now stands at Rs 7,777.94 crore.

Among the sectoral indices, the capital goods sector was amongst the top gainers for the week, notching up nearly 6 per cent gains. The auto and IT companies came in next at 4 per cent gains. The interest-sensitive realty index was the only one treading in the negative zone.

Among the individual stocks, Suzlon was the topmost gainer for the week as investors built up some expectations from the company against the backdrop of some significant order wins. IB Real Estate was once again among the top gainers as institutional investors displayed some fancy towards infra and realty stocks in the wake of some improvement in the macro economic dynamics. Last week’s top gainer Essar Oil continued to lead as investors renewed buying on bottom fishing tips. Amongst the top losers were prominent names like Untied Breweries, Adani Power, Hero MotoCorp and Ranbaxy Labs.

Top Gainers
Scrip	CMP	% Change (WoW)
Suzlon	28.55	25.49
IB Real Esta	70.8	20.92
Essar Oils	62	19.98
JSW Energy	53	19.66
Renuka Sugar	39.25	16.64
AurobndoPhrm	112.9	16.57
OrientalBank	258.1	16.21
SAIL	105	15.23
BankofIndia	353	15.22
UNION BANK	215.45	14.51

Top Losers
Scrip	CMP	% Change (WoW)
UNITED BREW	415.1	-6.95
PidiliteInds	137.15	-6.22
Alstom Proj	354.05	-6.04
Videocon Ind	177.75	-5.78
Adani Power	84.15	-4.43
Hero Honda	1821.9	-4.15
Ranbaxy Labs	443.75	-4.15
Adani Enter	422.95	-3.94
BharatElectr	1437.4	-3.92
Apollo Hspt	600.5	-3.89

Corporate Happenings

Mon, 30^th Jan

Board Meet :

United Phosphorus Ltd

Havells India Ltd

LIC Housing Finance Ltd

Oriental Bank of Commerce

Allahabad Bank

Andhra Bank

Indian Bank

Glenmark Pharmaceuticals Ltd

Indiabulls Financial Services Ltd

Mcleod Russel India Ltd

Dividend :

MRF Ltd

Rural Electrification Corporation Ltd

Godrej Consumer Products Ltd

Quarterly Result :

Havells India Ltd

LIC Housing Finance Ltd

Oriental Bank of Commerce

Allahabad Bank

Tue, 31^st Jan

Board Meet :

Century Textiles & Industries Ltd

Financial Technologies (India) Ltd

ICICI Bank Ltd

IDBI Bank Ltd

Central Bank of India

AGM :

Dividend :

IRB Infrastructure Developers Ltd

Quarterly Result :

Crompton Greaves Ltd

Siemens Ltd

Financial Technologies (India) Ltd

IDBI Bank Ltd

Central Bank of India

Punjab National Bank

NMDC Ltd

Wed, 01^st Feb

Thu, 02^nd Feb

Fri, 03^rd Feb

Sat, 04^th Feb

Sun, 05^th Feb

Given the scenario we urge investors to start booking partial profits on investments that have yielded significant gains over these past few weeks. The markets are likely to turn volatile as the Q3 results’ season continues ahead.

Experts have started warning about an imminent correction citing overbought levels. Some reversal is a given after a strong advance. So, some softening is not ruled out next month. It would be tough to predict the market’s direction in the short term.

The Nifty has to sustain above its 200-DMA to maintain the winning tempo. FII inflows will be another crucial factor to keep on one’s radar. State elections, which kick off from Saturday, could also have a sentimental impact on our market. The outcome of the UP elections will be keenly followed. The Union Budget will be another key event.

Globally, the eurozone credit crisis continues to play spoilsport. The global factors are very jittery now with the IMF downgrading its growth forecasts. There also seems to be no clarity on Greece’s efforts to resolve issues with its private lenders. In the US, things remain sanguine at best. The trajectory of China’s economy is also being tracked closely. Things could turn quiet and choppy for a while as earnings will continue to pour in. Uncertainty will prevail over a host of tricky issues. Therefore, one must not get too excited. Exercise restraint.

Weekly Technical Analysis of the Indian Stock & Share Market

Most Active Stocks

The 20 most active stocks traded in terms of value of shares traded and their weekly % change.

Security Name	Close	% Change
STATE BANK	2040.60	5.57
LARSEN & TOUBRO	1381.50	8.40
ICICI BANK	887.95	5.40
AXIS BANK	1073.05	6.34
RELIANCE INDS	820.40	3.50
TATA MOTORS	239.85	9.47
INFOSYS	2725.00	5.26
TATA STEEL	458.75	5.08
MARUTI SUZUKI	1210.65	9.71
TCS	1108.75	2.70
YES BANK	326.00	9.43
DLF	211.60	-1.13
RELIANCE INFRASTRUCTURE	529.90	10.32
UNITED SPIRITS	658.85	5.70
HERO MOTOCORP	1818.45	-6.59
ITC	201.80	0.24
JSW STEEL	662.15	2.32
HDFC BANK	484.20	-1.30
MAHINDRA & MAHIN	700.10	6.56
BHEL	273.60	-0.06

Biggest Weekly % Gainers

Security Name	Close	% Change
PTC (I) FINANCIAL SERVICES	16.60	48.88
PAREKH ALUMINEX	275.90	33.74
STRIDES ARCOLAB	505.70	30.27
SANWARIA AGRO OILS	17.30	29.59
PBA INFRASTRUCTURE	47.30	27.49
ZENSAR TECHNOLOG	174.65	26.33
GOENKA DIAMOND & JEWELS	56.10	26.07
TTRF	327.15	25.75
KOPRAN	20.15	24.00
TRIVENI ENGG	20.35	22.59
PATEL INTEGRATED LOGISTICS	28.65	22.44
JSW ENERGY	53.00	22.26
ALCHEMIST	81.15	21.39
STERLING BIOTECH	15.65	21.32
EVEREST KANTO CYLINDER	38.60	21.00
WELSPUN (I)	42.95	20.99
SHASUN PHARMA	60.65	20.58
INVENTURE GROWTH & SECURITIES	193.50	20.45
ESS DEE ALUMINIUM	180.10	20.07
ESSAR OIL	62.45	19.98
TILAKNAGAR INDS	44.95	19.07
GAMMON (I)	53.85	18.87
IVRCL ASSETS & HOLDINGS	38.35	18.00
JAYANT AGRO	106.30	17.33
JINDAL SOUTH WEST HOLDINGS	542.70	17.23
A2Z MAINTENANCE & ENGINEERING SERVICES	127.50	17.13
MADHUCON PROJECTS	60.65	16.97
VARDHMAN POLYTEX	84.70	16.91
KALE CONSULTANTS	140.45	16.60
ORIENT GREEN POWER COMPANY	14.05	16.60
SINTEX INDS	83.35	16.57
NCC	56.85	16.50
SUZLON ENERGY	28.60	16.26
DHAMPUR SUGAR MI	37.60	16.05
INDO RAMA SYNTH	34.50	15.77
SREI INFRASTRUCTURE FINANCE	33.70	15.61
AARTI INDS	57.05	15.60
SARDA ENERGY & MINERALS	122.65	15.33
GVK POWER & INFRASTRUCTURE	15.90	15.22
SHIPPING CORPN	68.35	15.16
JM FINANCIAL	15.40	14.93
STEEL AUTHORITY	105.20	14.85
JUPITER BIOSCIENCE	13.20	14.78
NELCAST	30.75	14.53
BALRAMPUR CHINI	47.60	14.42
BAJAJ HINDUSTAN	34.85	14.26
ROLTA INDIA	78.95	14.17
RUSHIL DECOR	154.45	14.07
HIMATSINGKA SEID	32.80	13.89
HINDUJA FOUNDRIES	73.20	13.84
GUJ FLOUROCHEM	485.15	13.80
ARIES AGRO	83.40	13.70
SUNIL HITECH ENGINEERS	79.35	13.44
SESA GOA	214.75	13.32
SHREE RENUKA SUGARS	39.25	13.28
IVRCL	49.50	13.14
AUROBINDO PHARMA	113.00	13.06
ORIENTAL BANK	259.35	13.06
TULSI EXTRUSIONS	11.70	13.04
DEWAN HOUSING	229.25	13.04
HIND DORR-OLIVER	33.60	12.94
VASCON ENGINEERS	52.10	12.65
FINANCIAL TECHNOLOGIES (I)	729.40	12.38
TATA TELESERVICE	15.95	12.32
BATA (I)	656.35	12.31
PITTI LAMINATIONS	67.15	12.10
IL&FS TRANSPORTATION NETWORKS	210.20	12.08
MAHANAGAR TELEPH	30.35	11.99
IDEA CELLULAR	94.30	11.86
NESCO	670.25	11.75
CONTAINER CORPOR	964.05	11.75
INDRAPRASTHA GAS	353.50	11.62
TWILIGHT LITAKA PHARMA	29.80	11.40
PRAJ INDS	90.90	11.40
HIND CONSTRUCTION CO	23.50	11.37
DENA BANK	67.65	11.27
IFCI	28.15	11.26
AHMEDNAGAR FORGI	132.55	11.15
REPRO INDIA	195.80	11.03
ACTION CONSTRUCTION EQUIPMENT	35.75	11.02
FIRST LEASING	62.45	11.02
CAMLIN	38.00	10.95
MAHINDRA LIFESPACE DEVELOPERS	283.80	10.90
S KUMARS NATIONWIDE	34.95	10.78
SYNDICATE BANK	95.95	10.73
BANK OF INDIA	352.75	10.55
EXCEL CROP CARE	145.65	10.51
KSK ENERGY VENTURES	54.20	10.50
INDIABULLS REAL ESTATE	70.80	10.45
GAYATRI PROJECTS	139.30	10.42
GRAVITA (I)	573.60	10.36
RELIANCE INFRASTRUCTURE	529.90	10.33
TIMBOR HOME	28.35	10.31
INDIA CEMENTS	83.55	10.30
THANGAMAYIL JEWELLERY	163.80	10.27
NEYVELI LIGNITE	87.80	10.23
MPHASIS	380.90	10.23
BL KASHYAP & SONS	12.45	10.18
ATUL	180.25	10.14
DPSC	15.75	10.14
ARSHIYA INTERNATIONAL	147.20	10.10
UNION BANK	215.05	10.00

Biggest Weekly % Losers

Security Name	Close	% Change
DALMIA BHARAT ENTERPRISES	133.25	-11.40

Stocks with Bullish Engulfing Patterns.

The following stocks have been trending downward in the short and intermediate terms and have formed a bullish engulfing pattern. The probability of an upward reversal in prices has increased.

Security Name	Close
VAKRANGEE SOFTWARE	339.05

Stocks with Bearish Engulfing Patterns.

The following stocks have been trending upward in the short and intermediate terms and have formed a bearish engulfing pattern. The probability of a downward reversal in prices has increased.

Security Name	Close
VIDEOCON INDS	178.20
SUPREME INDS	174.15
SIMPLEX INFRASTR	193.15
REDINGTON (I)	79.60
RANBAXY LABS	443.90
PRICOL	15.10
PIRAMAL HEALTHCARE	403.50
GUJ APOLLO INDS	143.95
GATI	32.45
ALSTOM PROJECTS	354.20

% Volume Change

Security Name	Close	% Change	Volume	% Change
ZENSAR TECHNOLOG	174.65	26.32	655109	2806
SARDA ENERGY & MINERALS	122.65	15.32	483817	1757
PAREKH ALUMINEX	275.90	33.73	605376	1392
STRIDES ARCOLAB	505.70	30.26	5888381	1195
NESCO	670.25	11.75	898854	1037
PBA INFRASTRUCTURE	47.30	27.49	399156	699
SHASUN PHARMA	60.65	20.57	706587	571
EXCEL CROP CARE	145.65	10.50	127643	565
ATUL	180.25	10.14	198797	410
UNION BANK	215.05	10.00	19260936	403
HIND DORR-OLIVER	33.60	12.94	2233942	306
JSW ENERGY	53.00	22.26	23626348	295
TIMBOR HOME	28.35	10.31	47454	274
TULSI EXTRUSIONS	11.70	13.04	462479	272
KSK ENERGY VENTURES	54.20	10.49	821543	270
REPRO INDIA	195.80	11.02	128902	265
IVRCL ASSETS & HOLDINGS	38.35	17.99	1065558	242
ESS DEE ALUMINIUM	180.10	20.06	313246	240
NELCAST	30.75	14.52	484439	230
VASCON ENGINEERS	52.10	12.64	329768	206
MAHINDRA LIFESPACE DEVELOPERS	283.80	10.90	336984	197
MADHUCON PROJECTS	60.65	16.97	348674	194
KALE CONSULTANTS	140.45	16.60	1053498	185
ACTION CONSTRUCTION EQUIPMENT	35.75	11.02	578006	182
RUSHIL DECOR	154.45	14.06	1880531	166
SREI INFRASTRUCTURE FINANCE	33.70	15.60	8374862	163
PITTI LAMINATIONS	67.15	12.10	123723	155
PATEL INTEGRATED LOGISTICS	28.65	22.43	13094	150
SANWARIA AGRO OILS	17.30	29.58	1307115	130
JUPITER BIOSCIENCE	13.20	14.78	1513747	130
TTRF	327.15	25.75	599059	122
BANK OF INDIA	352.75	10.54	8064586	111
INDO RAMA SYNTH	34.50	15.77	261248	109
KOPRAN	20.15	23.99	336835	104
JM FINANCIAL	15.40	14.92	7762908	102

New Intermediate Uptrend

Security Name	Close
ANDHRA SUGARS	130.45
ASHOK LEYLAND	27.25
AUTOLINE INDS	137.70
AXIS BANK	1073.05
BHARAT PETROLEUM	577.30
BHARTI AIRTEL	374.60
BHUSHAN STEEL	349.75
BL KASHYAP & SONS	12.45
D-LINK (I)	19.40
DEVELOPMENT CREDIT BANK	43.00
DEWAN HOUSING	229.25
EIH	89.90
FEDERAL-MOGUL GOETZE (I)	222.20
GEOJIT BNP PARIBAS FINANCIAL SERVICES	18.10
GREAT EASTERN SHIPPING	233.40
GUJ MINERAL	186.25
HIMATSINGKA SEID	32.80
HIND DORR-OLIVER	33.60
HIND ZINC	133.90
HT MEDIA	134.95
IDBI	100.70
IFCI	28.15
INDIAN OIL CORP	289.25
INDO RAMA SYNTH	34.50
ING VYSYA BANK	336.50
J&K BANK	799.95
JAYANT AGRO	106.30
JHS SVENDGAARD LABORATORIES	38.50
JK CEMENT	114.00
JSW ENERGY	53.00
KIRLOSKAR BROTHERS	135.70
KOPRAN	20.15
LARSEN & TOUBRO	1381.50
LLOYDS ELEC	46.80
LUPIN LABS	467.00
MOTILAL OSWAL MF - MOTILAL OSWAL MOST M50 ETF	69.16
MPHASIS	380.90
NCL INDS	40.45
NESCO	670.25
NEYVELI LIGNITE	87.80
NIFTY BENCHMARK EXC. TRD F	524.75
NITESH ESTATES	18.25
NOIDA TOLL BRIDG	23.00
OIL (I)	1200.50
ONGC	278.30
ORCHID CHEM	171.35
PAREKH ALUMINEX	275.90
PIPAVAV DEFENCE AND OFFSHORE ENGINEERING CO	71.15
PITTI LAMINATIONS	67.15
POLYPLEX CORPN	186.10
PUNJ LLOYD	52.65
RAIN COMMODITIES	33.60
S KUMARS NATIONWIDE	34.95
SADBHAV ENGINEERING	128.10
SAREGAMA (I)	69.00
SASKEN COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGIES	111.55
SHIPPING CORPN	68.35
SHIV-VANI OIL & GAS EXPLORATION SERVICES	204.60
SHRIRAM TRANSPORT FINANCE	597.70
SOBHA DEVELOPERS	255.45
SONA KOYO STEERI	13.70
SRI ADHIKARY TV	77.50
STATE BANK	2040.60
STERLITE TECHNOLOGIES	37.55
TATA TELESERVICE	15.95
TECH MAHINDRA	637.35
THERMAX	502.60
TTRF	327.15
TULSI EXTRUSIONS	11.70
UCO BANK	67.70
UNITED BANK OF INDIA	63.50
VASCON ENGINEERS	52.10
YES BANK	326.00

New Intermediate Downtrend

Prices of stocks (and other entities) rise and fall due to changes in the supply and demand relationships between buyers and sellers of the stock. The causes of the changing supply and demand relationships are many, but the effect of these changes shows up in the changing stock prices.

The following list shows all stocks beginning a new intermediate downtrend. A new intermediate downtrend normally begins with a breakdown when supply soaks up all demand after a series of rising tops and bottoms.

Security Name	Close
HIMADRI CHEMICALS & INDS	45.90
SURANA INDS	382.55

Weekly Nifty Analysis 9/01/2012

2012-01-08T20:48:00.001+05:30

Last Week, Decent pullback was witnessed from 4600 to 4800 levels followed by short-covering & selective buying support @ lower levels.Next Important trigger for the markets in the coming week would be IIP data & upcoming Q3FY12 results.

Going Forward,Nifty Futures have a strong support @ 4660-4675 levels. If holds 4660, minor upmove upto 4890/4965 levels may be witnessed.If it breaks & sustains below 4660, expect selling pressure to intensify upto 4556/4439.

Nifty closed below the psychological mark of 4700, hits 2 year low -17-12-2011

2011-12-18T11:53:00.001+05:30

Key share indices ended near their 2-year lows amid a volatile trading session Friday, after the Reserve Bank of India, in its monetary policy review, highlighted growth concerns.

What the RBI did was more or less in line with market expectations. Although a section of the markets and India Inc. wanted a CRR cut, lack of announcement on the same wasn’t a surprise for sure. The rupee remained resilient in the face RBI measures to check speculation. Global markets were also supportive. So, the unexpected selling on Friday afternoon could be more technical in nature. With the Nifty breaching 4700, there could be further downside.

The selling may abate in case of some firm policy action from the Centre or due to stability in external markets. Further recovery in the rupee might also act as a catalyst. With few days left in December, attention may soon shift to next year. Corporate earnings will be tracked closely. RBI’s next move will be eagerly awaited by the markets as well. In the mean time, macro-economic data – both domestic and global – will continue to influence the mood. Further moderation in global commodities, especially crude, will be a positive for India. Imported inflation will soften and deficits may improve.

We expect the coming week to throw some buying opportunities as most stocks are available at cheaper valuations. All eyes are now on the quarterly results for Q3FY12

Weekly Beeps - Market to remain volatile ahead of IIP, monetary policy 12-12-2011

2011-12-12T21:56:00.000+05:30

Next week is again very important with key events for our markets.The IIP data will be announced on December 12, followed by November monthly inflation on December 14 and RBI monetary policy review on December 16.

The IIP data for October will be out on Monday. The number is likely to be a pretty dismal one with one national daily actually reporting a 7% contraction.

Latest inflation report will be released on Dec. 14 and the RBI will take up its review on Dec. 16. A pause is what the RBI had predicted at its previous meeting. But, one has to see what stance the central bank takes as the rupee's depreciation has made things worse with cost of imports shooting up sharply.

Global factors will also remain in focus. Investors will closely analyze and examine the EU Summit outcome to gauge if the debt-strapped eurozone can finally fix its long-running problems. Any news on rating downgrade(s) may dampen the mood.

Though valuations of Indian equities may appear reasonable, most investors are not willing to take the bait just yet. The near-term outlook will hinge on political developments and overseas markets. Also watch out for the advance tax numbers, trend in FII flows and the rupee.

Benchmark Indices
Index	2-Dec-11	9-Dec-11	% Change
Sensex	16846.83	16213.46	-3.76
Nifty	5050.15	4866.7	-3.63
Hang Seng	19040.39	18586.23	-2.39
Nikkei	8643.75	8536.46	-1.24
Shanghai	2360.66	2315.27	-1.92
Dow Jones*	12020.03	11997.7	-0.19
S&P 500*	1244.58	1234.35	-0.82
NASDAQ*	2626.2	2596.38	-1.14
Bovespa*	58143.4	57455	-1.18
FTSE*	5568.46	5483.77	-1.52
DAX*	6131.51	5874.44	-4.19
CAC*	3181.68	3095.49	-2.71
*Closing till Thursday

Currency Rate
Index	2-Dec-11	9-Dec-11	% Change
USD	51.43	52.06	1.22
EURO	69.35	70.08	1.05
GBP	80.66	81.94	1.59
JYP (per 100)	66.05	67.15	1.67