VFC's STOCK HOUSE

Briefs: ARDM, CBAI

vfcshouse@hotmail.com (VFC) — Thu, 07 Jan 2010 03:33:00 +0000

ARDM.ob: Aradigm Corp traded higher by over sixteen percent on Wednesday after the company announced that it will present at the Biotech Showcase 2010 on January 12 in San Fransisco.

Nearly triple the average daily volume accompanied the rise in price.

Aradigm is still a 'Phase II' company that is developing inhalation drug products to treat various respiratory indications.

The stock may be worth accumulating as long term speculative play, although significant percentage gains can be realized as the pipeline progresses.

Disclosure: No positions.

CBAI.ob: Cord Blood America announced the retiring of a $1.35 million note on Wednesday. Company CEO Matthew Schissler indicated that the remaining long term debt will not hinder the immediate plans to implement Cord Bloods "three pillars of success" which include organic growth, acquisitions and diversification of the revenue stream.

Shares rose another ten percent after the news was released, and although the company is setting up a nice story of future potential, a pullback should be due at some point for consolidation - in my opinion - but if the CEO's plan for success starts to come to fruition, CBAI may still have significant room to move to the upside.

A nice long term play, in my opinion, as I've mentioned here quite a bit lately, but I do suggest taking profits on the way up, as always.

Disclosure: VFC is long CBAI.

Readers Respond: KERX, PCYC, OGXI, ONTY, PPHM, GNBT, CBAI

vfcshouse@hotmail.com (VFC) — Thu, 07 Jan 2010 02:00:00 +0000

KERX, PCYC: A comment from Lenny regarding Keryx BioPharmaceuticals and Pharmacyclics:

Hi Vinny,

Hope you had a relaxing Holiday period!

I am trying to understand why KERX, which will effectively have 2 drugs in PIII, has a current market value of $140 million while PCYC, which has no drugs in PIII, has a current market value almost $170 million.
KERX is hyped, PCYC is not ... so shouldn't the roles be reversed?

Or is it because PCYC's pipeline is potentially more valuable than KERX'?

Hope you can help me with this conundrum!

Tks,

Lenny

VFC's Take: Hi, Lenny, I had a great and relaxing holiday period - hope you did the same!

I think that both stocks are still great long term speculative buys, although since they are still speculative, I try to trade in and out to ensure that I've already banked a profit before the pipeline products go before the FDA - if they make it that far.

With KERX, I'm slowly re-accumulating shares since the drop back down to $2.50.

With PCYC, I couldn't help but sell a few shares on Wednesday since the stock continues to rise with no news being released. It's possible that news is pending - but I think you also hit the nail on the head that investors may consider the PCYC pipeline to have more long term value than the KERX pipeline.

However, it could be that the price spike is somewhat artificial - PCYC is known to realize some lofty gains before sinking back down again over the years.

That being said, the stock could rise further, but a retracement will be in order before too long, in my opinion, unless very significant news is released to justify the continued price climb. I also believe that the stock will keep higher lows than the recent past, as the pipeline advances; in similar fashion to KERX.

It's also a possibility that the company will conduct a stock sale into the price spike - there's still a whole lot of clinical trials to fund, whether a partner comes on board or not.

While KERX is back in accumulation territory, I'd take a 'wait and see' approach with PCYC right now because I think we'll see another drop in price after the spike. If you want in PCYC now, just in case the rise is for real, then I'd suggest buying in with half or a third of the amount that you want to buy in with; this way you're in if the stock runs, but you've still got cash on the sides to buy more in case it drops.

Disclosure: VFC is long KERX and PCYC.

OGXI: A comment from Muhammad regarding OGXI:

Hi VFC,
Happy new year to you and the family.
Once again it is OGXI. What is your take on this stock after the recent development and the reduction in the market cap to 130 Millions? Do you consider it a bottom dip and a buying opportunity.
Thanks in advance
Muhammad

VFC's Take: Happy New Year to you, too, Muhammad.

The first time I responded to the OGXI question, I mentioned that I favored ONTY at the time - mainly because of the price (the psychological factor of buying a stock for four bucks vs. thirty four bucks) and because ONTY has Stimuvax on the back end of Phase III trials while OncoGeneX had nothing yet in Phase III.

However, after OncoGeneX announced a partnership agreement with Teva late last year for OGX-011 (a treatment for solid cancer tumors), the stock dropped to just over twenty dollars. While OncoGeneX received some up-front cash from the deal (at a premium to the stock price) investors did not digest the terms of the deal very well, including some significant compensation to Isis Pharmaceuticals that the deal called for.

That being said, it's a new year and OGXI is trading at a nice spot for accumulation right now, in my opinion. OGX-011 holds significant potential if the product makes it to market and the company has also received grant funding for an upcoming Phase II trial to evaluate the effectiveness of another product, OGX-427, "when administered as a monotherapy to patients with castrate resistant prostate cancer" [copied directly from the PR].

It's possible that OGXI could dip to below twenty dollars along the way at some point, so I wouldn't go 'all-in' at this point, but it's also possible that the stock will trade for over thirty dollars again at some point in the near future - barring any unforeseen negative developments - so it's worth buying or adding some shares now.

Also, when small investors buy higher priced stocks like OGXI, it's a bid of a psychological downer to buy about five shares for a hundred bucks versus the twenty shares of ONTY, for instance, that you could buy. Keep in mind that it's a percentage game and it's market cap that matters, not the price of the stock.

If the market cap doubles, your money will also double, whether you have one share or one hundred shares.

Disclosure: No position.

PPHM: A comment regarding PPHM:

Hi,

What are your thoughts on PPHM? This used to be a potential one, but since RS it is not gaining anymore..

VFC's Take: Peregrine Pharmaceuticals is still in 'Phase II accumulation phase', in my opinion, and as long as the stock is trading for below three bucks I'll be adding shares.

The company's oncology pipeline of Bavituximab and Cotara consists of multiple trials for multiple indications by each potential product.

Disclosure: VFC is long PPHM.

GNBT: A comment in response to one of my posts from Tuesday:

The December 3, 2009 Generex news release states:
"WORCESTER, Mass., Dec. 3, 2009 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Published in the journal Diabetes, Obesity and Metabolism, an independent review of clinical trials of Generex Oral-lyn(TM) shows that the oral insulin spray has a faster onset of action and shorter duration of action than insulin delivered subcutaneously." This answers the second part of the GNBT question above. Hope this helps.

Regards

VFC's Take: Thanks for posting that reminder....appreciate it. That statement just adds to the future potential of Oral-Lyn, in my opinion.

Another GNBT comment in response to yesterday's post:

I think the person writing about GNBT was referring to the question of whether third parties will reimburse the difference between standard injections versus any probable premium for Generex's product. The patient may have to pick up any difference as a copay. If this comes to fruition I see MannKind in the same reimbursement situation. Oral-Lyn may change the standard of care for diabetes causing economies of scale leading to lower prices making potential premium costs moot. How long do these type of stocks base before uncoiling the spring.

VFC's Take: Thanks, that is most likely what the question on Tuesday related to - at first glance I considered a third party to be relating to an outside business entity.

The patient may have to pick up a portion of the price - that is definitely a challenge - and it's unlikely that insurance companies will agree to pay more for Oral-Lyn if the insulin needle is still available for a cheaper price.

I've talked to diabetics that complained that the insurance companies would not cover the cost of "safer" insulin needles to apply to children because the standard - and cheap - needle was still available.

However, as the person who left the above comment also stated, if Oral-Lyn is widely accepted and becomes a standard treatment, the overall price of the product could drop to a point where the insurance companies decide that it is worthwhile to cover the entire cost.

And then there is the possibility that Nancy Pelosi will come to the rescue and lump in the difference in the health care bill - all that will cost is three hundred million or so more taxpayer dollars to buy off a Representative to approve it.

The third-party re-imbursement may be an issue, but let's cross that road when we get to it - let's see trial results first.

Disclosure: VFC is long GNBT.

CBAI.ob: A comment from Scott regarding Cord Blood America:

Can anyone tell me why CBAI deserves a 70+ million market cap? I am just not seeing it, considering that earnings growth over the last 3 years could not be flatter. They would have to raise earnings 5-10x to deserve this valuation.

VFC's Take: Cord Blood is trading on future speculative potential, in my opinion, and on hype as the January 22nd grand opening date of the Las Vegas facility approaches.

You can't look at the books today and say that the company deserves a seventy million market cap, but you could say - if you like to speculate - that the company is doing the right things to be able to increase revenue enough in the near future to justify the price.

That's just my opinion and I'm not complaining - I'm enjoying the ride up.

That being said, I'm not completely convinced that the general public is ready to buy into the blood cord storage idea just yet, but I could be wrong.

For the time being Cord Blood is either a long term hold for an investor, a short term trade since the price has more than doubled over the past few months or a combination of both strategies.

I'm in the boat that feels inclined to take some profits off the table on the way up, but I'll always hold a few shares for the long term. This could be the ground floor of a big thing.

I just now emptied the lint out of my belly button and sent it in to Cord Blood, hopefully there's a stem cell or two in there to replace my liver someday.

Disclosure: VFC is long CBAI.

Briefs: CSUH(D), CBAI, KERX, SIRI, SNSS

vfcshouse@hotmail.com (VFC) — Wed, 06 Jan 2010 03:37:00 +0000

CSUHD.ob: Celsius Holdings announced on Tuesday that the company's calorie burning beverage of the same name - Celsius - is now available at Rite Aid drugstores nationwide.

Rite Aid will offer the Sparkling Orange carbonated flavor of the drink along with both non-carbonated Green Tea flavors (Raspberry Acai and Peach-Mango).

The Rite Aid deal is the most significant of the past few months, in my opinion, but just as significant is the fact that the chain will feature the Celsius product in its 'Rite Weight Plan'. It's one thing to put the product on the shelves, but it adds a whole new level of confidence to know that the store is taking the extra steps to effectively market the product.

Shares of Celsius closed the day over seven percent higher on the news.

Disclosure: VFC is long CSUHD.

CBAI.ob: Shares of Cord Blood America closed the trading day on Tuesday nearly thirty percent higher after BioMedReports released a transcript of a recent interview with the CEO of the company, Matthew L. Schissler.

In the interview Mr. Schissler emphasized the company's recent debt reduction and strengthened balance sheet which could enable the Cord Blood to become a buyer in the merger and acquisitions market this year.

Also highlighted was the determination of the company to diversify and grow the revenue stream.

The run continues for CBAI, and it's becoming apparently clear that this company is for real, but expect some profit taking on the way up.

Disclosure: VFC is long CBAI.

KERX: Shares of KERX finished the trading day on Tuesday twelve cents higher after a press release announced that a Phase III trial design for Zerenex has been agreed upon with the FDA.

In the PR, Keryx stated that two Phase III Zerenex trials will be launched later this year.

I think we'll see some ups and downs with KERX leading into the launch of the trials- a perfect scenario for buying the dips.

There is quite a bit of hype with KERX, and rightfully so, but remember to keep grounded and understand that nothing is a sure thing in the stock market. Play the dips and spikes accordingly over the next few months in an attempt to bank a profit before the trials are too far along - that's my opinion.

That statement sounds easier said than done, but it's easier to watch a stock continue to rise after you've pulled half your money out to take advantage of a spike than it is to watch it collapse on bad news when your full investment is still in there - in my opinion. If you're already at least even on the investment and the stock drops, it's not as big a killer as it would have been had you not sold into any spikes along the way, at least that's what my experiences have told me.

Disclosure: VFC is long KERX.

SIRI: Shares of SiriusXM Satellite Radio have inched back up towards the seventy cent mark early in the new year, and the company and its stock are in a prime position to surpass the $1 mark early on in 2010 as the economy recovers.

The current prices are a far cry from ten months ago when the company was on the verge of bankruptcy and the stock price plunged to below ten cents.

The worst is behind SIRI, in my opinion, and much of the debt due has been put off until 2012, so current shareholders should be safe to hold for the ride up.

And I'm loving that Mad Dog Channel.

Disclosure: VFC is long SIRI.

SNSS: As shares of Sunesis Pharma traded back down to just over the one dollar mark early on in the new year, it offered another buying opportunity to those investors that may have sold into the recent spike to over two dollars after the company announced positive results for two mid-stage Voreloxin trials.

With a partnership always a possibility and Phase III trials probable for later this year, the one dollar price will prove to be a nice (re)entry point, in my opinion.

Disclosure: No position.

Readers Respond: MSBT, GNBT

vfcshouse@hotmail.com (VFC) — Wed, 06 Jan 2010 02:43:00 +0000

MSBT.ob:

A comment from Fransisco regarding MedaSorb:

Hey Vinny,
Happy New Year
I was wanting to know your opinion on some thoughts I have about MSBT. I have been in this since early October of 2009. I as well as you believe that we will reach a buck before the CytoSorb results are released, however I think the enrollment success or failure will also effect this pre results. I have seen multiple share price assumptions, some realistic some not so realistic. My question is where do you see this stock in terms of possible share price based on the success of their filter and European approval? I understand that this is most likely a homerun type stock or strike out based on CytoSorb. Thanks for your input.
Francisco

VFC's Take: I agree that enrollment will play a significant role in how the stock trades leading up to the release of trial results. When the company indicated late last year that enrollment was slow moving, the stock dropped, but they also stated that the rate of enrollment should pick up early in 2010.

You're exactly right, in my opinion, that this stock is purely a hit or miss based on the CytoSorb trials - others have disagreed with me in the past, but I think the stock price will collapse if the trial fails, regardless of what else in the pipeline.

For that reason I've been a fan of trading in and out of this one - to ensure that we come out of MSBT with a profit before the results are released.

Positive results could send the stock as high as two to three dollars initially, in my opinion, but the price could be higher or lower depending on any news that is released in conjunction with trial results.

I'd be inclined to sell some shares into that spike, however, due to the fact that I expect massive dilution and share conversions to occur shortly after positive results are released - if in fact the results are positive.

Disclosure: VFC is long MSBT.

A comment regarding Generex:

What do you feel are the challenges to third party reimbursement for both MannKind and Generex? ...although if I understand correctly, Generex product is supposed to meet or exceed absorbtion vis a vis needles. Is your understanding of the second part of the question the same? Thanks and WELCOME BACK!!!

VFC's Take: I'm not sure what specifically to comment on regarding your third party reimbursement question, but my business would tell me that Generex and MannKind should both have solid and clear contracts with specific language that outlines exactly what is expected by each company - who gets what and when and who pays for what and when. Should be a no-brainer, but of course if Oral-Lyn is being sold in countries that are - shall we say a little shady - then there is always the black market factor and the third parties will make out a lot better than Generex will I'm sure.

As for the second part of the question, from my understanding Oral-Lyn is just as effective a method of insulin absorption as needles; the real benefit is that the diabetic would no longer have to stick his or herself with a needle - a HUGE quality-of-life improvement, in my opinion.

Disclosure: VFC is long GNBT.

Briefs: ANX, BIEL, LLBO, CBAI, TTNP, MSBT

vfcshouse@hotmail.com (VFC) — Tue, 05 Jan 2010 04:18:00 +0000

ANX: Shares of AdventrX Pharmaceuticals closed Monday down twenty percent on a day that the company announced an NDA filing with the FDA for ANX-530.

Shortly after the announcement of the NDA, the company announced a stock offering that will net the company approximately $19 million.

Those that missed the previous run to near forty cents should find the current prices suitable for a buy-in based on the possible approval of ANX-530.

After reviewing my take on the stock from August, I stand by my original assessment and still consider it a good 'buy the dips' pick.

Expect a move upwards in anticipation of an FDA decision later this year, in my opinion.

Disclosure: No position.

BIEL.pk: On a day that saw shares of BioElectronics trade up towards the five cent mark, the company announced in a press release that a move in the Chinese market for the Allay patch should be coming within the next few months - after first test marketing the product in a new direct response television campaign in mid-February.

A move into the growing economic market of China is an encouraging way to start what the company has proclaimed to be its first full year of dedicated sales growth.

Investors can mull over this news while awaiting news from the FDA regarding US approvals.

As long as BIEL stays in the four cent range, I still consider it a good stock to accumulate. As the year moves forward and the BioElectronics products gain a foothold in the global market place, I think we'll see BIEL trading for a much higher price.

I also expect to see a move to the OTCBB this year.

Also encouraging: Investors are receiving these updates via press release and not from a Yahoo! Finance message board.

Disclosure: VFC is long BIEL.

LLBO.pk: Lifeline Biotechnologies, maker of the radiation free early detection breast cancer system called the 'First Warning System', issued a PR on Monday announcing the completion of the company's information for the pink sheets. The new filing can be found under the LLBO stock symbol on the pink sheets website.

The move towards keeping the company's financials current is nice move towards full legitimacy in the eyes of investors, but CEO Jim Holmes also stated that Lifeline will issue several hundred million more shares during the first quarter of this year.

As I've stated before, an investment in Lifeline is one that comes with the understanding that the authorized and outstanding share counts are huge - but there is also a whole lot of potential in the 'First Warning System'; especially with the current news headlines regarding breast cancer detection and the risks of radiation.

The continuous dilution limits the potential upside after any positive news from the FDA, but if the agency is satisfied with the current information provided and doesn't ask for additional data, then Lifeline will quickly file a 501k and nice move in price should still be in order - in my opinion.

It's a dog-eat-dog world out there for small start-ups, but with a product that boasts the potential of 'FWS', the future should be a bright one for Lifeline and its shareholders - dilution or no dilution.

I picked up a few more shares on Monday afternoon and will add on any dips.

Disclosure: VFC is long LLBO.

CBAI.ob: Cord Blood America on Monday morning announced that the company has signed a Letter of Intent with South American company, BioCells, that will contract Cord Blood America's processing and storage services for BioCells' affiliates in in Peru, Colombia, Bolivia, Panama and Puerto Rico.

The contract will close, if in fact it gets to that, during the first quarter of 2010.

VFC's Take: Letter of Intents are nice, but this isn't news until the contract is a done deal.

I will re-iterate that I see CBAI as at least a double from these prices at some point this year. I'll continue accumulating if it drops to below a penny again; otherwise, I'm holding in anticipation of any price spike.

I do give honorable mention to the crowd out there that doesn't seem to want to see the price spike just yet - seems to me that there are still some investors that want to continue loading the boat while the price is still trading this low.

Good luck to all.

Disclosure: VFC is long CBAI.

TTNP.pk: Shares of Titan Pharmaceuticals closed the day Monday at $2.41.

The pending commercial launch of Vanda's Fanapt and possible news regarding the patent for Probuphine are events that could propel the stock even further.

In late December the company raised cash through a relatively small stock offering and by taking out a three million dollar loan. This infusion of cash and the cash received from the recent NIH grant should keep Titan afloat until Fanapt royalties start rolling in.

I'm also wondering if Titan is going to 'go it along'; those who follow know that I have been of the opinion that a buyout of the company would take place.

Buyout or not, 2010 could be a big one for Titan Pharmaceuticals - although by no means will the percentage gains of the stock match those of 2009.

Disclosure: VFC is long TTNP.

MSBT.ob: the nearly thirty percent move to the upside by MedaSorb on Monday is worth watching.

I think we'll see one dollar from this stock before the CytoSorb results are released, but it could be just another head fake.

Keep an eye on the trading this week - the move could be for real this time.

Disclosure: VFC is long MSBT.

Readers Respond: ONTY, ACTC, AGEN

vfcshouse@hotmail.com (VFC) — Tue, 05 Jan 2010 03:00:00 +0000

Happy New Year, everyone. With a new year rolling in there's going to be some changes with the "Readers Respond" posts. Last year I tried to respond to all the questions and comments that I could get to - including those from the riff-raff, the message board hound dogs gone astray and the wise guys. I felt that everyone should get a chance in VFC's Stock House, but that's not the case this year.

This year I'm not going to bother with - and will probably delete - any comments that I feel are either beating a dead horse or are bringing nothing to the table.

Save the immature nonsense for the Yahoo! boards and your video games. Save the childish comments for your squeegee at your weekend job at the car wash.

It amazes me sometimes how far America has come with the huge amount of classless immaturity and childish behaviour that is on display around here sometimes.

'Nuff said on that.

A comment regarding ONTY, ACTC and AGEN:

Can you comment on onty,actc and agen going forward thru the end of 2010. Thanks in advance.

VFC's Take:

ONTY: The year 2010 could be a good one for ONTY as the Phase III Stimuvax START and STRIDE trials (testing efficacy in the treatment of lung and breast cancer, respectively) which are being conducted by Oncothyreon partner Merck KGaA are still ongoing.

Any interim data in either of those trials that indicates that Stimuvax will prove to be a success should lead to a nice bump in price. The share price could inch upwards anyway in anticipation of results and as the company advances other pipeline products.

I don't expect a blast-off this year, but the only thing that I see pushing the stock downward would be indications that Stimuvax is not going to meet the endpoints of the current trials - that would lead to a collapse in share price, in my opinion.

The year 2011 is the year that I see as a big move for ONTY, although if Dendreon (DNDN) receives Provenge approval later this year, then ONTY could be in for a sympathetic price bump, along with the entire cancer vaccine sector.

The current prices still offer a good place for accumulating the dips - in my opinion.

Disclosure: VFC is long ONTY.

ACTC: As with ONTY, I think that ACTC will see some ups and downs in 2010, but I don't quite think that this is the year for a big move in price.

I see this stock strictly as a long term stem cell play that is worth accumulating at the current price level.

That being said, any encouraging news could lead to a double in price, but any spike would be met with dilution - in my opinion.

Disclosure: VFC is long ACTC.

AGEN: I also lump Antigenics in with the 'accumulation phase' stocks. While I consider Antigenics as a Phase II stock now - one that could pay off later on down the road on a positive glioma trial - the potential is there for a short term spike based on any positive QS-21 news.

We're still waiting on any positive news originating from Russia regarding the launch of Oncophage in that country, and if the reimbursement issue ever gets settled and the product starts selling, a run back to two dollars would be likely, in my opinion.

Barring any unforseen setbacks, AGEN should double in 2010, as it did in 2009 - although I don't think a spike to three dollars will be involved this year.

Maybe in 2011.

In conclusion, I see all three stocks as having at least one more year of accumulation - but I've been wrong before.

Disclosure: VFC is long AGEN.

Ten Under-Ten Cent Stocks for 2010; MHAN, LLBO, MCLN, MCET, BIEL, CDOI, ACTC, CBAI, SPNG, GCKO

vfcshouse@hotmail.com (VFC) — Mon, 04 Jan 2010 03:30:00 +0000

Here's a list of ten stocks that I'm either looking at or have in the 'night on the town' portion of my portfolio heading into the trading days of 2010.

Some I've already mentioned in VFC's Ten for 2010, Parts I and II.

Also keep in mind that I consider most penny stocks as merely an investment with 'night on the town' money. Huge percentage gains could be had quickly with these stocks, but that means that huge losses could also be had.

I don't recommend using 'real' investing money here, just the partying money. And you've got to have a strong stomach and a high tolerance for risk to play with the pennies.

MHAN.ob: If Manhattan Pharmaceuticals can bring Hedrin to market in 2010, then shareholders of the MHAN stock could be looking at a potential five bagger, if not more.

Previously I had considered Hedrin approval enough to launch the share price to over a dollar almost immediately, but I've since tempered my expectations somewhat and am taking a 'wait and see' approach after news of a required US trial for Hedrin hit and the variable of the Ariston merger came into play.

MHAN should inch upwards in anticipation of Hedrin news, in my opinion.

Disclosure: VFC is long MHAN.

LLBO.pk: Lifeline Biotechnologies, Inc. has created a radiation-free process called the 'First Warning System' that detects breast cancer in the early stages.

The company is currently awaiting a response from the FDA regarding whether or not the current data and testing information is sufficient for the filing of a 501k for approval as a medical device. If the FDA is satisfied with the current information, Lifeline is prepared to immediately file a 501k.

Since an FDA response is considered somewhat imminent (the company filed in July, 2009), it's conceivable that the 'First Warning System' could be approved sometime in 2010.

That being said, it's also possible that the FDA will ask for more testing.

The amount of authorized and outstanding shares is a concern with an investment in LLBO, but the market cap leaves room for the stock to move up on the right news.

With early breast cancer detection and radiation threats gaining quite a few news headlines over the past few months, the time may be ripe for Lifeline and its radiation-free system to make a move.

Disclosure: VFC is long LLBO.

MCLN.ob: Also made the Ten Stocks for 2010 list.

Revenues are growing, profitability is growing and the 'clean medical disposal' arena is growing.

A nice mid to long term pick, in my opinion.

The nearly half-a-billion shares outstanding weigh down some of the upwards potential of the stock, although huge percentage gains could be there for the having in 2010 and beyond.

Disclosure: VFC is long MCLN.

MCET.ob: Multicell Technologies is a longer-term pick with a pipeline in the relatively early stages of development. The most advanced product, a treatment for fatigue in MS patients, has a completed Phase II trial under its belt while other products are in the very early stages of development.

It may take a while for this stock to move significantly, but a potential double or so in short time on the right news release is always a possibility if attention is drawn to the stock.

That being said, a decline in price is also a possibility; as I said earlier, you need a strong stomach to play with stocks trading for at or near a penny.

Multicell has enough pipeline potential, partners and patents to keep me interested in buying while the stock trades for these prices.

Disclosure: VFC is long MCET.

BIEL.pk: BioElectronics is discussed often here, but any under-ten-cent list would be incomplete without it, in my opinion.

2010 should be the year that the BioElectronics products start producing some revenue as the company emerges from a developmental stage company to one of growth.

Early 2010 news from the FDA could be the boost that sends BIEL on a quick triple from its current trading price of near four cents.

Disclosure: VFC is long BIEL.

CDOI.pk: If there is any legitimacy behind Cardio Infrared Technologies, then the stock is sure to rebound from the .002 level where it closed out 2009.

The big question is legitimacy, however.

According to previous press releases, the Cardio Cor bikes produced by the company were to be on display at an Anti-Aging show in Vegas in early December, but no follow-on release was noted. An Internet search turned up results that the show was canceled, while another made it seem as if one did take place at the Mandalay Bay Hotel & Casino.

The next piece of news due would be Phase II results - and if the company is legit, then those results should be released soon.

The Cardio Cor bikes are said to use infrared technology to increase weight-loss benefits of exercise.

The CDOI stock completely collapsed in 2009, meaning the late-year selloff could have been tax-selling, but it could also mean just about everyone has lost faith in the company.

For the current prices I'm willing to throw a little 'night on the town' money at CDOI.

If Phase II results are in fact released and new orders for the bikes come in, a move back towards a penny is possible.

Disclosure: VFC is long CDOI.

ACTC.ob: Advanced Cell Tech is another long term stem cell pick with potential.

The company's pipeline is still in the early stages of development, but the share price could increase as that pipeline develops.

Originally I bought into ACTC on the potential of the MyoBlast treatment for heart disease, but the the company has since filed an IND with the FDA to conduct a human clinical trial that uses stem cells for the treatment of eye diseases.

The products are quite a ways away from market, but ACTC is a nice long term stem cell pick, in my opinion.

The risk is worth the possible long term rewards with ACTC, in my opinion.

Disclosure: VFC is long ACTC.

CBAI.ob: Cord Blood America was also discussed in VFC's Ten for 2010, Part I.

The expected January 22nd grand-opening date of the Vegas cord blood storage facility has brought much hype and attention to the company and its stock and that has led to significant price increases of late.

I'm still not convinced that the public is going to grasp the idea of cord-blood stem cell storage just yet, and the number of shares outstanding is of some concern, but I do believe that CBAI will return at least a double for shareholders at some point in 2010 based on news and possible contract developments.

Cord Blood America could be going places or it could peter out as a company with an idea that the public is not quite ready for yet, but for these prices - especially if we see another dip to below a penny - I think the risk is worth the possible rewards with some 'night on the town' money.

Diclosure: VFC is long CBAI.

SPNG.pk: The story is still developing with SpongeTech, as the SEC issued a written Wells notice on December 28th to the company's CEO, CFO and COO.

The Wells notice announced that the SEC intends to "file civil injunctive actions against them alleging violations of federal securities laws."

According to the 8k filed on New Year's Eve, the notice will not have any effect on the ongoings of the company - meaning that production, marketing and sales will continue as normal.

I'm still following and holding and I'll be watching the market reaction to this news that may have come as a surprise to some, but my inclination is to believe that this was an expected occurrence.

Disclosure: VFC is long SPNG.

GCKO.pk: Also mentioned in the Ten for 2010 Honorable Mention List.

If you're one that believes that there is a place for robots in the future, then GeckoSystems - the maker of home health-care robots - could be an exciting investment for the future.

The company has recently announced that it will be the first to mass produce the home healthcare robot, but it may take some additional financing to complete that task.

I see GCKO as at least a double for 2010 if the public becomes aware - and believes in - the potential of the robot idea that is still seen by many as only fit for movies.

For more on GeckoSystems, BioMedReports has quite a few write-ups on the company.

Disclosure: VFC is long GCKO.

VFC's Ten for 2010, Part III: Honorable Mention - MJNA, GCKO, DNDN

vfcshouse@hotmail.com (VFC) — Sun, 03 Jan 2010 15:30:00 +0000

Here's a few stocks that I didn't mention in VFC's Ten for 2010, Parts I & II that I also feel could post significant gains during the year:

MJNA.pk: Shares of Medical Marijuana will open the new trading year selling for roughly twenty cents - significantly off the stock's 2009 52-week high, but a decent price to buy in (in my opinion) as the medicinal use of marijuana becomes more widely accepted.

There are also those out there who believe that marijuana is going to eventually become fully legalized in the country; legalized, but well regulated and heavily taxed. The potential tax revenues from the legal sales of marijuana would then help offset the out of control spending that is currently taking place by our politicians in Washington.

For those that also see this scenario as a possibility, a buy of MJNA for twenty cents could turn out to be a steal. However, investing solely on the possibility of legalization would be a risky bet, but an investment based on the expanded medicinal use of the drug could be a shrewd one.

Disclosure: No position.

GCKO.pk: GeckoSystems International Corporation was covered in full by BioMedReports not too long ago, when it was announced that Gecko will become the first company to mass produce elderly care robots.

As the idea of using robots to assist in home healthcare quickly becomes a reality, GCKO has a chance to post even more significant gains in 2010 than the stock has posted in 2009.

The idea of using robots for health care purposes is surely an idea that would be hard to grasp by many, but while trading for two cents the small investor could use some night on the town money and buy into a company that could eventually turn this futuristic idea into a reality.

The idea of using a robot at home could be a less-expensive alternative for consumers who would otherwise be footing endless assisted-living expenses. That fact alone gives this stock potential, in my opinion.

Another company, iRobot, is also in the robot market and the stock for that company trades for just under $18 and a much larger market cap. In my opinion, a merger between the two companies could be a possibility.

A buy now is worth it, in my opinion, because if GeckoSystems' home health care robot makes it past production and to the global market, these prices will be looked back upon as the ground floor of a good thing.

GCKO is still a highly risky proposition, in my opinion, but it's a stock that is also worth watching.

Disclosure: VFC is long GCKO.

DNDN: Still trading for under thirty dollars, the Dendreon stock has the potential to at least double if the company's prostate cancer immunotherapeutic vaccine receives FDA approval later this year - a likely scenario, in my opinion, after the years-long drama that has enveloped the company.

Beyond the immediate future, the future potential of the DNDN stock is huge if Provenge is approved.

VFC's Ten for 2010, Part II: MHAN, BDSI, MSBT, SIGA, MCLN

vfcshouse@hotmail.com (VFC) — Sun, 03 Jan 2010 05:01:00 +0000

A continuation of the list of ten stocks that I think are in for at least a double in price at some point in 2010:

MHAN: 2010 could finally be the year that Manhattan Pharmaceuticals and the Nordic Joint Venture bring Hedrin, a non-pesticide treatment for head lice, to market in the United States.

According to information released by the company over the past few months, a Hedrin clinical trial will be conducted early in 2010 followed by an application for approval as a Class III medical device. Manhattan has indicated that the company expects to begin reaping revenue from Hedrin sales at some point in the second half of 2010.

Manhattan also has a topical gel that treats psoriasis in the pipeline.

The recent merger with Ariston Pharmaceuticals adds to the Manhattan pipeline, but this company's somewhat questionable past inclines me to believe that MHAN should be treated as a Hedrin trade rather than a long term investment - in my opinion.

That being said, a run in the MHAN share price by the end of the second quarter is likely based on developing Hedrin news and the run could make MHAN a five to ten bagger for 2010 before it's all said and done, in my opinion.

I plan on selling most of my shares into any spike, however, because it's my opinion that a run in price will be followed by a cash-raising deal and/or dilution.

Keep an eye out for Hedrin trial news during the first quarter of 2010.

Disclosure: VFC is long MHAN.

BDSI: Shares of BioDelivery Sciences fell victim to the emerging trend in 2009 that had many biotech stocks trading down after positive approval news, after posting significant gains beforehand; a strict example of the old "buy the rumor, sell the news" adage.

The company's lead drug candidate Onsolis, a treatment for pain in cancer patients, received FDA approval in 2009 and a similar product utilizing the BioDelivery's BEMA technology demonstrated positive Phase II results for the treatment of cancer pain.

Of note, BioDelivery has partnered Onsolis with Meda - a powerhouse in the pharmaceutical sector.

All things considered, a market cap of under 100 million is not justified for BDSI, in my opinion, and a double in price will be in order for 2010.

Also easing investor concerns was a December 31st settlement agreement between BioDelivery and Accentia Pharmaceuticals.

BDSI should be ready to run in 2010.

Disclosure: VFC is long BDSI.

MSBT: The immediate future of MedaSorb depends solely on the success or failure of the ongoing European trial that is testing the effectiveness of CytoSorb for the treatment of severe sepsis.

Regardless of whether the trial succeeds or not, another run to at least the forty cent range could be in order during the first quarter of 2010 as investors place their bets in anticipation of trial results.

If the results are successful, MSBT is another stock that could turn into an instant five to ten-bagger, but if the trial fails then a trip to sub five cents could be in order.

Another drop down to twelve cents or so wouldn't surprise me before another price spike, but any move upwards could come quick - just like the last run to forty cents.

Disclosure: VFC is long MSBT.

SIGA: The situation regarding Siga Technologies and the expected BARDA contract should become clearer in the early weeks of 2010, but if the contract is announced as has been expected for some time, then SIGA will be trading for at least double the $5.80 price where that the stock closed out 2009, in my opinion.

In my opinion, the current Presidential administration is serious about bringing as much competition as possible where government contracts are concerned, and that could be a hold up for SIGA's expected contract.

A nice long term hold, in my opinion, but the opportunity for a quick double still exists.

Keep an eye out for news from BARDA.

Disclosure: VFC is long SIGA.

MCLN: MedClean Technologies, Inc. has been covered in depth by BioMedReports.

It's my opinion that this stock will be an easy two or three bagger (at least) in 2010 and has the potential to return even more gains depending on developing medical waste contracts.

While MedClean has nearly half a billion shares outstanding, revenue has increased significantly and looks primed to continue realizing significant growth.

For a more in-depth synopsis of the company, read the BioMedReports CEO Interview.

2010 could turn into a significant year for shareholders of MCLN, in my opinion.

Disclosure: VFC is long MCLN.

Remember, we win some and we lose some - do your own DD before investing.

VFC's Ten for 2010, Part I: CVM, CSUH(D), BIEL, CBAI, GNBT

vfcshouse@hotmail.com (VFC) — Sat, 02 Jan 2010 03:51:00 +0000

Happy 2010, everyone.

I hope all had a pleasant holiday season and were able to spend ample time with family and friends while taking a break from the rigors of stock watching and trading.

Now that the new year is here, it's time to put down the eggnog and champagne and bring some solid gains to the portfolio yet again.

Here's a list of ten stocks (in honor of 2010) that I'm expecting to at least double at some point during the year; many of which (if not all) I've discussed here before. This list is compiled strictly from my own opinions and is in no way intended to compel other investors to buy these stocks.

As always, do your own DD and invest accordingly.

Readers, please feel free to add your own suggestions as well.

Here's Part I:

A few familiar picks:

CVM: Shares of Cel Sci Corp closed 2009 as a near triple for the year while also having reached a high of over two dollars in September before once again dropping down to below the one dollar mark.

Cel Sci successfully weathered the credit crunch storm in 2009 and closed the year with a world of future potential. The last twelve months brought the company's Baltimore area Multikine production facility to near completion, which means that Cel Sci's lead product (the head and neck cancer immunotherapeutic treatment Multikine) is that much closer to a long awaited Phase III trial.

The year 2009 also brought increased attention to the company's LEAPS technology, mainly as a potential treatment for the swine flu, but in October the company also also presented positive results of a study that showed LEAPS as an effective treatment for Rheumatoid Arthritis.

The LEAPS H1N1 treatment is currently being evaluated for effectiveness in a study at Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore, MD.

While it would be a bold move to expect another triple from this stock in 2010, it's not completely out of the question. Any positive news from the Johns Hopkins Study in conjunction with a plan for a further course of action for the LEAPS treatment could propel the stock price higher, especially if that news were to be released around the same time as the completion of the near-validated Baltimore area facility.

Once the facility is completed and validated, Cel Sci can not only begin production of Multikine for the Phase III trial, but contracts could start being secured for the facility's state-of-the-art cold-fill service. The cold-fill contract service could bring in significant revenue for the company.

News regarding any of these developments could come early in 2010 and I fully expect a volatile ride along the way, especially considering there are some entities out there that have demonstrated an almost compulsive obsession with spinning any news regarding Cel Sci in a negative light.

With Multikine on the cusp of the long awaited Phase III trial, the production facility validation imminent and the Johns Hopkins LEAPS/H1N1 study ongoing, Cel Sci has never been so well positioned for the future - in my opinion.

CVM's below-one-dollar 2009 closing price will end up being viewed as a bargain for 2010, in my opinion, but do your own DD before jumping on board.

Disclosure: VFC is long CVM.

CSUH(D): Shares of Celsius Holdings closed 2009 at a post-reverse-split price of $5.06 after dropping to as low as twenty two cents (adjusted for RS) and soaring as high as $14 (adjusted) during the year.

While third quarter numbers for 2009 came in below the two million dollar mark, advertising and distribution increased rapidly throughout the fourth quarter which could mark 2010 as the year that Celsius, as the leader of the calorie burning beverages, breaks out in both the market place and in terms of stock movement.

With the the reverse split enacted just before Christmas, CEO Steve Haley and financier Carl DeSantis will be looking to bring the CSUH stock to the AMEX.

The next couple of quarters will be crucial for the company as the costs of advertising and increased distribution are sure to rise, but previous statements from Mr. Haley have indicated that the Celsius calorie burning beverage will be in just about every relevant retailer out there by quarter two, 2010.

The increased distribution and consumer awareness should offset the increased costs of doing business long enough for sales growth to catch up, in my opinion, meaning that 2010 could turn into a stellar year for Celsius Holdings and its shareholders.

The key here, of course, is that the future of the company and its stock hinges on the consumer buying the product and only time will tell if the consumer is buying, although the next few quarterly results should give us a good indication if the product is really catching on.

That being said, it's my opinion that the current marketing campaign and product placement in stores is successfully separating Celsius from the rest of the beverage pack as a unique product with unique health benefits; a definite positive as consumers are becoming more and more health conscious.

Steve Haley has methodically built the Celsius brand into one that I believe will be a big winner on the market place. In my opinion, 2010 will be the year that Celsius gains a foothold in the market and rewards investors with very significant gain in share price.

It's a waiting game at this point - waiting for the sales numbers to start rolling in - but the post-split volatility has awarded investors with ample opportunities to buy on the dips, although trading volume during the last week of the year is too low to measure how the stock will trade when regular trading action resumes in the new year.

Regardless of the pending volatility, I like CSUH(D) as a candidate to continue its move upward in 2010, but do your own DD.

Disclosure: VFC is long CSUH.

BIEL: While the share price of BioElectronics slipped back to the four cent range at the end of 2009, the company is primed to bounce back - and bounce back strong - in 2010, in my opinion.

The company is currently in negotiations with the FDA regarding the classification status of some of its products and once those issues are resolved and if FDA approvals/clearances soon follow, it could be off to the races for BIEL.

In the meantime, international partnerships are materializing and therefore international sales are picking up. A recent PR issued by the company announced that BioElectronics' partner in Colombia has placed an order as a result of the direct response television campaign and the company is anticipating orders from other Latin American partners in addition to its partner in Turkey.

A partnership in Japan is also close to being announced, according the most recent PR, and a move into the Chinese market is forthcoming.

I continue to believe that BioElectronics products, as safe alternatives to Acetaminophen and Ibuprofen, have the potential to gain a significant foothold in the global marketplace as consumers become more and more aware of the health hazards posed by existing OTC products. As a result, I consider a four cent buy price for BIEL to be a steal moving into 2010, even with over 1.3 billion shares outstanding.

I think we'll see much more than a double in share price from BIEL at some point in 2010, assuming all goes well will FDA classification and approvals; issues which should be settled by the end of the first quarter - in my opinion.

Disclosure: VFC is long BIEL.

CBAI: As I've discussed previously, shares of Cord Blood America have been on the move since the company announced the January 22, 2010 grand opening date of its Vegas facility.

Now trading for over a penny, there's no reason to believe, in my opinion, that the price of the stock will not continue to rise in anticipation of the grand opening.

With stem cells research and the potential of stem cell therapy quickly becoming 'the next best thing' in the medical arena, Cord Blood could be positioned to take advantage of this advancing science - but I'm not fully convinced of just how much potential exists with the company and the CBAI stock, especially because I'm still sceptical as to how many people will be willing to pay for the service just yet.

That being said, all indications are that this company is for real and intends to be a big player in the stem cell/umbilical cord blood preservation market.

The CBAI story is definitely one to watch for the month of January and the share price could return a quick double this month and maybe more at points throughout the year.

I'd suggest keeping your expectations tempered, however, as the company has over 2.6 billion shares outstanding and it's still too early to judge future earnings potential, although for these prices and a market cap of just over thirty million, investors could still be buying into the ground floor of a golden opportunity.

Do your own DD, but I see at least a double out of this stock from the current levels, which bodes well for those that have already enjoyed a double.

Disclosure: VFC is long CBAI.

GNBT: Shares of Generex closed 2009 at just over fifty cents, but I see the first half of 2010 returning a double in share price to investors in anticipation of Oral-Lyn results and a possible late year NDA filing for the spray-insulin product.

Additionally, I can see GNBT gaining in price if Mannkind's (MNKD) own version of spray-insulin receives FDA approval, although the MNKD spike could be somewhat short-lived, in my opinion, as Mannkind's product will quickly be considered competition - competition that was first to market.

However, Oral-Lyn - if eventually approved - should be able to successfully compete on the basis that the insulin is delivered through the inner lining of the cheek and not via the lungs, the method used by Mannkind's product.

Both products should be well received by diabetic patients, in my opinion, as I think that it is a no-brainer to assume that diabetics would well prefer to receive insulin from a spray rather than a needle, but I'm in no position to make that call - I can only speculate.

Oral-Lyn alone has the potential to at least double the GNBT share price in 2010, in my opinion, but Generex also recently released positive interim Phase II results for its breast cancer vaccine - another development worth watching.

The fifty cent share price where GNBT closed the year will be looked back upon as a great buy later in 2010, in my opinion, assuming all goes well with the Oral-Lyn Phase III results.

Disclosure: VFC is long GNBT.

Celsius Holdings - My Last Post of the Year

vfcshouse@hotmail.com (VFC) — Sun, 20 Dec 2009 18:19:00 +0000

This may be my last post of the year as I'll be spending the next couple of weeks with friends and family. I wish all readers of VFC's Stock House the very best for the Christmas season and on into the New Year.

Please take time to remember those that may not be as fortunate as you and I - because the opportunities that we have to prosper are not available to most in this world.

For my last update of 2009, I wanted to update my last post regarding Celsius Holdings and the new employment contracts for CEO Steve Haley, Vice President Janice Haley and CFO Jan Norelid.

Mr. Haley responded to an email note that I sent him and the short version of his comments regarding the contracts are this:

No big deal. The contracts were due to expire and the new contracts reflect how much better a position Celsius Holdings is in now compared to when the expiring contracts were written.

I expect big things from Celsius Holdings in 2010 - should be a great year for all involved.

Again, thanks to everyone who stays involved with this blog, and let's all count on a prosperous 2010.

It's been good. Now it's time to pick up a Corona and go look for some sun and sand; and most importantly, spend some time with the fam.

See ya next year.

Briefs: BDSI, CSUH

vfcshouse@hotmail.com (VFC) — Fri, 18 Dec 2009 16:52:00 +0000

BDSI: BioDelivery Sciences earlier this week released positive results from a Phase II study measuring the safety and efficacy of BEMA Buprenorphine for the treatment of pain after dental surgery. BEMA Buprenorphine utilizes the company's BEMA drug delivery technology to deliver Buprenorphine through the inner lining of the cheek.

Earlier this year the FDA approved Onsolis, a treatment for breakthrough pain in cancer patients, and BioDelivery partnered with the US subsidiary of Meda Pharmaceuticals to bring the product to market.

The BDSI stock is still trading for a price (around four bucks) that I consider to be a steal, and I believe that in the mid to long term, BDSI is going to return some nice gains to patient shareholders.

With Onsolis already rolling and BEMA Buprenorphine moving along, BDSI can hardly still be considered a speculative stock.

Great long term play, in my opinion; but do your own DD.

Disclosure: VFC is long BDSI.

CSUH.ob: Celsius Holdings announced on Friday that five flavors of the calorie-burning beverage will soon be available at Marsh Supermarkets in Indiana and Ohio.

As product distribution continues to grow, the real attention that attracted investors on Thursday evening was the official filing of 'Revised and Restated Employment Agreements' for CEO Steve Haley, Vice President Janet Haley and CFO Jan Norelid.

The documents were modified to terminate the auto-renewal clause in the agreements and to also reduce the amount of authorized severance pay from two years to one year in the case of 'termination without cause'.

With the filing of these documents preceding an expected announcement of a 20:1 reverse split - and a possible move to the AMEX looming - it's safe to assume that something is going on behind the scenes at Celsius Holdings that we haven't been keyed in on yet.

That being said, I'm still looking for a boom in sales growth in 2010 - which could turn out to be stellar year for the company and its products.

Stay tuned to this one - things are getting interesting.

Disclosure: VFC is long CSUH.

Readers Respond: MSHL, ANX, ARDM

vfcshouse@hotmail.com (VFC) — Fri, 18 Dec 2009 15:26:00 +0000

MSHL: A comment regarding Marshall Edwards, Inc.:

Hi VFC,
Any thoughts on MSHL?

Thanks.

VFC's Take: Marshall Edwards, of which Novogen owns over 71% of the common stock (according to the most recent quarterly report) could be a decent long term speculative play - whith some added short term potential based on the review of data from the OVATURE trial. The company announced in April 2009 that, apparently for financial reasons, they would cease future patient enrollment into the trial and instead focus on measuring the safety and efficacy of phenoxodiol in ovarian cancer. If positive, Marshall Edwards intends to look for additional outlicensing/partnership agreements.

It is the possibility of a near term announcement regarding the data review and/or partnership possibilities that bring short term potential to the stock, but the long term potential lies in the advancement of the cancer fighting technology pipeline that is still a ways away from market. Because of the company's near dire (in my position) financial situation, any short term spike will be used to raise the funds needed to advance the rest of the pipeline; therefore, no investor should expect a spike to hold the highs.

The upside: Seeing as how MSHL is trading under the radar at the moment, if the OVATURE review is positive then a spike to over a buck should be expected and sustainable, in my opinion, considering the future potential of phenoxodiol.

If the OVATURE review is not positive, however, the situation could get very difficult for this company. There's something about MSHL that I feel is more risky than most speculative plays, so I'm not a buyer here, but my opinion means little in the grand scheme of things; do your own DD and understand the risk/reward.

Disclosure: No positions.

ANX, ARDM: A comment regarding Adventrx Pharmaceuticals, Inc. and Aradigm Corp.:

Hello VFC,
could you share your thoughts about Aradigm(ARDM) and ANX? Both look as significantly undervaluated biotech companies with several catalysts comming near term. In the case of ARDM there is a significant milestone comming in January and ANX is preparing their first NDA with a speed "reformulation" track. ANX rallies right now, so would you wait till there is some pullback?

VFC's Take: I've commented on both of these stocks in the past and I continue to believe that both are decent long term speculative plays - with short potential to sell into any spikes in order to end up on house money for the long term.

Adventrx especially has started to receive some hype of late, and a pullback is possible after the hype dies down, but since there is the possibility that news could be released in short time that would push the stock higher, I see nothing wrong with starting to buy a position in the stock now, but holding some cash on the sidelines to add shares if it drops; this way, you don't miss out on the run but can still take advantage and average down on a decline.

Aradigm has become more attractive as an accumulation play with the recent drop that has the stock trading at thirteen cents, and any decent update news could make for a quick double in price.

Read the following posts for my recent updates on these two stocks:

Readers' Stock Picks: ANX
Readers' Picks: ANX
Readers Respond: ANX

Readers' Stock Picks ARDM
Readers Respond: ARDM

Diclosure: No positions, although I may start accumulating both very soon.

Briefs: SIGA

vfcshouse@hotmail.com (VFC) — Wed, 16 Dec 2009 17:17:00 +0000

SIGA: Shares of Siga Technologies, Inc. have rebounded slightly after last week's drop to below five dollars.

Shares traded as high as $6.41 on Wednesday after investors became aware that the Director of the company had added a few shares to his position in an insider buying transaction.

After listening to the conference call on Monday, it's my opinion that nothing has fundamentally changed with the short, mid or long term future of the company and - amendment or no amendment - the BARDA contract could still be announced at any time.

Those long termers that were willing to buy into last Friday's dip have already seen a nice return on their investment; although I'm not yet ready to believe that the volatility is over until we see some news.

Disclosure: VFC is long SIGA call options.

Briefs: CSUH, CVM, CBAI, NEPH

vfcshouse@hotmail.com (VFC) — Wed, 16 Dec 2009 15:05:00 +0000

CSUH.ob: Celsius Holdings announced on Wednesday via an early morning press release that the company has "spearheaded" a national advertising campaign with an ABC SuperSign advertisement in Times Square featuring Mario Lopez enjoying a Celsius.

The ad has been on display since just before Thanksgiving and will be up through the New Year, according to the Celsius HotSpot blog , located on the company website.

As I mentioned when this news was first released on the company's website, there is no bigger show during the Holiday Season than Times Square; and putting a SuperSign banner in the heart of NYC - where millions from around the globe will be exposed to it - is a bold move into the mainstream by the company, in my opinion.

Only time will tell if the national advertising campaign is translating into revenue growth, and the next two quarters will be crucial in judging just how well the product is catching on.

Also of note, investors are still awaiting news on major distribution announcements (Wal Mark, CostCo, etc.) and a possible update on the pending reverse split and possible move to a major exchange, although I'm not holding my breath on big news from any company right now until after the New Year.

Volume remained relatively stagnant with the news.

Disclosure: VFC is long CSUH.

CVM: Speaking of the potential of expecting news releases before the New Year, I'm also not holding my breath on validation news from Cel Sci in the coming weeks. This is purely my own speculation, but I think that it would have a larger big-picture impact if significant news like that were released to kick off 2010, in conjunction with an estimated start date for the Multikine trial.

Validation news will be significant, however, because not only will it mean that the Multikine trial is that much closer to beginning, but the company will also be able to start announcing contracts for the cold-fill service that the new facility will have to offer.

While I wouldn't be surprised to not see validation news during the Holiday Season, an update on the LEAPS-H1N1 Johns Hopkins trial could be forthcoming at any time - in my opinion.

Disclosure: VFC is long CVM.

CBAI.ob: Cord Blood America announced on Wednesday that the company's total debt reduction for 2009 was $10 million.

While the news is encouraging for the balance sheet, it's hard to ignore that the company whose stock trades for under a penny has over two and a half billion shares outstanding and nearly seven billion authorized.

Regardless, the recent run in the stock price could continue until the time of the Las Vegas facility grand opening, at which time the company could start announcing some stem cell preservation contracts.

I think that there could be a market here with the current shift in politics towards support for stem cell research, but keep a quick trigger finger with this one, in my opinion, unless you're taking a very speculative, long term approach.

If for some reason the January 22nd grand opening date is delayed, I'd be highly suspect of the company, but for the time being, the stock is worth watching for the potential of a 'hype spike'.

I wouldn't put more than 'night on the town' money on this, however, at least not for the time being.

Disclosure: VFC is long CBAI.

NEPH.ob Those who may have been waiting for a decent entry point into NEPH may have gotten their opportunity this week when shares of Nephros, Inc. dropped to as low as the mid sixty cent range after the company announced a stock sale.

Nephros is a nice long term speculative play, in my opinion, based on the company's water filtration technology - which includes a contract with the U.S. ONR to develop a portable filter for military use. Field testing of the product is on schedule for 2010, according to the most recent quarterly report.

Nephros is also currently awaiting word from the FDA regarding 510(k) applications for their End-Stage Renal Disease (ESRD) filters.

I like NEPH for below a buck, but each investor should do their own DD and invest accordingly.

Disclosure: VFC is long NEPH.

Briefs: GNBT, BIEL

vfcshouse@hotmail.com (VFC) — Mon, 14 Dec 2009 19:51:00 +0000

GNBT: On the heels of some recent press exposure regarding Generex's Oral-Lyn, an insulin spray for diabetics, the company on Monday announced that interim results from an ongoing Phase II study of its immunotherapeutic breast cancer vaccine were positive and presented at the 32nd Annual San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium.

The product is being developed by Generex's wholly-owned subsidiary, Antigen Express, Inc., and the trial is being conducted at by COL George Peoples, MD, at the Brooke Army Medical Center, according to Monday's press release.

The news bumped shares of GNBT to over sixty cents.

While the breast cancer immunotherapeutic vaccine offers some nice future potential, it's still a long way off from market and the interim results that investors are keying on are the Oral-Lyn interim results that should be announced early in 2010.

I still call sixty cents an accumulation level for GNBT.

As always, do you own DD and invest accordingly.

Disclosure: VFC is long GNBT.

BIEL.pk: BioElectronics was highlighted on Monday as one of my Pink Sheet Pleasures, but the company also issued a PR on Monday morning announcing that a financial audit is nearing completion and investors will soon have full transparency into the company's financials.

According to the PR, shortly after the audit is complete, BioElectronics will file the necessary paperwork to become a 'fully reporting' company.

This is an encouraging development for a company that is priming itself for a year of growth in 2010, while a move to the OTCBB is also likely at some point.

Shares of BIEL spiked to nearly seven cents on Monday after trading for below four cents at one point this week.

Almost as encouraging as the news is the fact that BioElectronics actually issued a press release announcing the update rather than sending Joe Noel to the Yahoo message boards to issue the update.

While BIEL continues to trade with volatility, it's still worth buying the dips, in my opinion.

Disclosure: VFC is long BIEL.

BIEL, CBAI, CDOI, LLBO - Pink Sheet Pleasures, or Not?

vfcshouse@hotmail.com (VFC) — Mon, 14 Dec 2009 16:16:00 +0000

Here's VFC's Take on a number of pink sheet and OTCBB stocks that have come in comments, emails or discussions of late; I usually don't mess with the sub-penny stocks, but I've been known to buy a few 'just in case' shares with my Grey Goose money, and as MCLN and GCKO (among others) have recently shown, there's no reason to completely ignore the sub penny stocks, as long as you understand the risk involved.

I also don't recommend that an investor use anything other than 'night on the town' money to play the pennies and I also would emphasize to stay away if you're not in a position to move quickly (buy/sell on the drop a dime to bank some profit).

That being said, here's my take on a few that I've been asked about lately:

BIEL.pk: After dipping to below four cents last week, shares of BioElectronics have swiftly rebounded to above six cents - reaching an early Monday high of .068 before retracing.

Investors continue to await news of FDA reclassification and approvals in the United States, although the company's Direct Response television ad campaign should be off and running in some overseas markets.

BioElectronics is far from being free of significant market challenges - and the company's communication with shareholders continues to be questionable - but those are the reasons that investors are still able to buy into this company for what I consider to be an attractive price.

2010 could turn into a banner year for the company, but it's the FDA approvals that matter for the short term.

Disclosure: VFC is long BIEL.

CBAI.ob: Shares of Cord Blood America have been on the move to the upside over the past few weeks after the the umbilical cord blood stem cell preservation company recently announced that it's Las Vegas corporate office and laboratory will be open for business on January 22, 2010.

Stem cell research has gained traction in both the political and commercial arenas, and purchasing a few 'night on the town' shares of a company that could be getting a head start on the storage aspect of the market could pay off pretty good over the mid to long term, while there is also some short term potential for the stock to move higher as the January 22 grand opening date approaches.

The biggest question that potential investors have when playing with the penny plays is whether or not the company is for real or not; meaning does the company actually follow through on the promises of the press releases. I followed 'Cord Blood America' for a while before buying in and I'm pretty convinced that these guys are legit; but firm dates such as the January 22nd grand opening allow us the opportunity to see if the company can follow through on its promises.

If nothing else, the stock should be hyped and pumped between now and the third week of January - I've already seen CBAI popping up in message board discussion - and that could offer investors and traders the opportunity to flip a few shares and possibly end up on house money before long.

The stock is still trading for below a penny, but has moved up recently.

Definitely a risky play, but one with some potential, in my opinion.

Disclosure: VFC is long CBAI.

CDOI.pk: Cardio Infrared Technologies, INC., according to the company profile, develops and markets exercise equipment that utilizes infra red technology to provide weight-loss and anti-aging benefits that go beyond the normal reach of standard exercise equipment.

The stock has been absolutely hammered this year so far, but according to some recent press releases, things could be picking up for this company and I picked up a few 'just in case' shares last week for around .004 cents.

That being said, it's time to look for signs that the company is moving along. A press release from early October stated that the company would highlight its Cardio-Cor system at an Anti-Aging show that was to take place in Las Vegas last week, but no follow-up press release ever originated from the company regarding the event. The event did take place at the Madalay Bay resort and casino, so if the company was there - I'd expect an update soon.

Additionally, Phase II results were due to be released in early December and we've still heard nothing regarding those results.

On the bright side, however, is sales are starting to roll in - the most recent being a $400,000 order from New Orleans for Cario-Cor and Cardio-Cor II - and at the end of the day it'll be legitimate sales numbers that ultimately justify the movement of the stock.

For the time being, I think that the stock does have some potential based on the possibility that Phase II results will be released (although I'm not holding my breath); but I also think that the stock is volatile enough to be worth a quick trade at the opportune time.

Again, this one is high risk, but if the company can release a PR in the coming weeks to validate previously released statements, shareholders may be able to jump on a quick double. According to the pink sheets, the current estimated market cap of the company is $3.5 million, so I couldn't see the stock holding a price of much more than a double for too long; but that's just my opinion.

Additionally, there are 1.5 billion shares authorized, and while that is a reduction in the amount of authorized shares than just a few months ago, it's likely that any significant bump in price would be accompanied by dilution.

That being said, I still see some potential with CDOI - especially if Phase II results are released and the company did in fact show up for Anti-Aging show in Vegas and isn't just pulling our legs.

I wouldn't play this one for the long term prospects, rather I'd jump on the short term trading opportunity, but do your own DD.

Disclosure: VFC is long CDOI.

LLBO.pk: Lifeline Biotechnologies, Inc. is another pink play that has garnered some attention over the months.

Lifeline's claim to fame is the early warning breast cancer detection system called "The First Warning System". The system, according to statements from the company and backed up by studies, is more effective and safer than a mammography in early breast cancer detection.

Currently, the company is awaiting news from the FDA regarding classification issues.

LLBO has some nice potential, in my opinion, if they can bring First Warning to market, especially as public sentiment may be moving away from mamograms - if given a safer alternative - but the stock is not the sure thing that many out there believe it is, in my opinion.

With over two billion shares currently outstanding, it would take significant news to move the stock in a significant way, in my opinion, but if it looks like First Warning is going to meet muster at the FDA, then a higher price could be justified.

Regarding the amount of outstanding shares, the CEO of Lifeline recently stated in a press release that there are no intentions to conduct a reverse split; which, in my opinion, means that he is concentrating on developing and advancing the product and is not yet so concerned about building a stock.

That works for me, for the time being, but if 'First Warning' looks to make it to market, I'd have to expect a reverse split at some point.

Tread cautiously, but the risk/reward with LLBO is decent enough to throw some 'night on the town' money at the stock.

VFC's Take on LLBO
LLBO Update
Readers' Picks: LLBO
Readers Respond: LLBO

Disclosure: VFC is long LLBO.

Since I've been asked about my sub-ten cent plays quite a bit recently, I'll continue adding those stocks to my routine comments and updates.

SIGA's Conference Call, VFC's Take

vfcshouse@hotmail.com (VFC) — Mon, 14 Dec 2009 14:45:00 +0000

SIGA: The much anticipated Monday morning conference call from SIGA Technologies, Inc. was brief, to the point and for the most part just re-iterated already known information.

There were no stunning revelations announced and - more importantly - there was no reason given that should have long term investors panicked about their investment in SIGA.

After listening to the call and re-examining the events that transpired last week that led to a significant slide to below $5 at one point, I'm convinced that the extreme drop in price was largely unwarranted, yet compounded by those who took advantage of the announcement of an amendment to the BARDA contract and used that announcement to spread fear and uncertainty throughout the investing community, as I discussed over the weekend.

There's no doubt that there were/are many invested in SIGA to simply play the BARDA trade - that was my intent - and some of those investors may have grown impatient and bailed out on the stock, which would have added to the volatility, but it really doesn't look like anything has changed; SIGA still looks like they have the best product to fulfill the contract and it's still a waiting game - as is always the case when dealing with the government.

Regarding the timing of the stock offering announced last Thursday - just one day before the announcement - the SIGA CEO stated that the company was not aware of the pending amendment announcement at the time of the offering.

In my opinion, the government is either,

- opening up the contract to other bidders in an effort to demonstrate competition in the awarding of the contract (something that this administration is big on);

- is awaiting budget money and the contract will be announced when the funds are available; or

- feels that there is a viable alternative to SIGA's product;

- in typical government fashion, BARDA is just fumbling along in misdirected fashion and really has no idea what they're doing.

My take is this - the government can award that contract whenever they are ready to, pending amendment or not; but they can also stonewall and lumber along as if in a daze until it's time to move, but when the move is made, it'll come quick, so adjust your investing strategy accordingly after conducting your own DD.

As I stated over the weekend, I think longs had a great buying opportunity last Friday, although even as the stock is rebounding on Monday morning, I'm not ready to believe that the volatility is over. As long as the uncertainty is there, the big boys can play their games.

As always, do your own DD and invest accordingly.

Disclosure: VFC is long SIGA call options.

SIGA: Friday's Price Collapse - A Quick Comment

vfcshouse@hotmail.com (VFC) — Sat, 12 Dec 2009 18:55:00 +0000

It's a busy Saturday, but I know Friday's turn of events for SIGA has drawn a lot of attention and interest to the stock, so I thought I'd post a quick something before heading out and shaking off the Grey Goose....

First of all, I want to emphasize that I'm waiting until after Monday's conference call before coming to any conclusions regarding the string of events that led to SIGA's price collapse on Friday, because things that are unclear and suspicious now may be explained in full on Monday.

However, things certainly do look pretty suspicious at SIGA right now; with the timing of Thursday's stock offering just a day before an amendment to the BARDA contract was to be announced.

The question of "who knew what and when" is sure to be asked on Monday, but the truth is that we may never know exactly what transpired over the last few weeks between SIGA technologies and the contracting office.

In the same way there were "leaks" that a contract announcement was imminent, there may have been leaks that the BARDA amendment was to be released, because the shorts pounced with ferocity as soon as they saw an opportunity to jump.

Friday's extreme action also had all the makings of a 'bear raid'; otherwise quiet message boards that saw maybe five posts a day for weeks were suddenly bombarded with a slew of new IDs, all claiming to have been there all along and all claiming that they were selling and moving on (and suggesting that everyone else should, too) because SIGA was essentially a failed company and a failed stock. The normal five posts a day grew to hundreds of posts of Friday, and those posts during a short raid are intended to spread fear and misinformation as the shorts plunge the stock further than the news warrants.

Friday's drop was exacerbated by the raid; in my opinion SIGA dropped a lot further than it should have based on a turn of events that really doesn't change anything for the potential of SIGA. It's still a waiting game for BARDA and the pipeline is still in tact.

If you're a long term investor in SIGA and not just in the stock for the BARDA trade, then you're looking at a pretty good price to add shares, in my opinion, because nothing has changed with the fundamentals and future potential of the company.

However, my own investment in SIGA was strickly for the BARDA trade and I'm still sitting on March and June calls (added more of both on Friday) and a few leftover December calls (which I think it's a safe bet that they'll expire worthless next week).

Two key factors to take away from the recent events that transpired atSIGA:

- Nothing is a done deal until it's a done deal when the government is involved.

- Regardless of how promising a situation looks, it's always important to protect your investment by trading the volatility with some trading shares. In the event of SIGA, as I described here last week, I dumped most of my December $7.50 calls when they spiked enough to ensure that I came away from the investment with a profit; I only mention this because I know the riff-raff and the wolves are circling and waiting for any chance to try and discredit VFC. I always try to emphasize being on 'house money' when expected news hits.

All being said, I'm going to wait and see what is said on Monday before deciding whether or not to stick around with SIGA - and maybe even go long with the cheap shares instead of sticking stricly to my calls for the BARDA play - or just flip my March/June options and move on.

All indications today are that the contract is going to be delayed at least a few months, since the actual amendment isn't due to be released until on/about December 28th, but let's see what SIGA has to say in the conference call. Before then, it's too early to jump to any conclusions.

Regarding the December 28th date given as guidance for the amendment, I have little faith that anything will be released on that date; absolutely nothing gets done in the government between Christmas and New Years. More likely, expect news during the first week of Junuary.

As always, this is all just my opinion - each investor should do their own DD and rely on that DD when making investment decisions.

Disclosure: VFC is long SIGA call options.

Readers Respond: BIEL

vfcshouse@hotmail.com (VFC) — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 03:40:00 +0000

BIEL.pk: The recent drop in the price of the BIEL stock and the resulting volatility in the stock has many investors anxious and interested. Some recent comments regarding the stock, followed by VFC's Take after each comment:

From anonymous:

I picked up 300K today at .036 and planning on adding more tomorrow. I am 100% sure that biel stock will be at mid .08 by end of this year. I also believe that apart from FDA new, if BIEL can get the audited finance report and move to OTCBB then it will go even more higher.

VFC's Take: Nice share pick-up, if the stock drops back to that level again I'll be picking up a few more shares myself.

I agree, if the audited financials come in, a move to the OTCBB is a big step up from being unaudited on the pinks, in my opinion. It adds that extra layer of legitimacy as the company looks to make a big move in 2010.

While the FDA issues could be the most market moving pending events, a move to the OTCBB would most certainly be a welcomed event for investors.

From Shep:

Nice read. Helps firm things up a bit. I certainly don't have a crystal ball, but I believe BIEL will be big someday soon. My opinion regarding all the gloom and doom talk across the boards is coming from day traders who jump in and out quickly looking for the quick strike. Joe Blow bought a quarter million at .10 and was looking for it to hit .15 a few days later. Instead we're dealing with this slow downward slide right now due to various factors. You've got to be mid-term to long in your BIEL thinking to make money I think. I've got a transfer pending with Zecco right now and am just itching to snatch up some sub .04 shares. It does take cajones to weather the storm though.

VFC's Take: The key here is having the "cajones to weather the storm."

This relates to a previous post of mine regarding exercising patience. For the mid to long term minded small investor, patience has got to be a part of the game. Since most small investors are more investor than trader, it's that much more important to conduct solid DD and base any investments on that DD.

Solid DD and a solid exit/entry strategy will give each investor the ability to "weather the storm" when things look like they could be going south.

Each investor bought into BIEL for a reason. Judging by the feedback that I get here, a lot of that reason revolves around the company's products that hold huge global potential. While the stock price has dropped, nothing has changed with the potential of the product and that is the fact that the long term investors need to key on.

Let the traders trade and make their quick moves and let the mid to long termers take advantage of the decline in price. That's not to say, however, that I don't recommend investors also having a few 'trading shares' on hand to sell into any spikes in order to reduce the overall risk of the investment.

2010 could shape up to be a rewarding year for those that were willing to stand firm on their DD.

From anonymous:

Marselus Wallace has posted his QnA session with Andrew Whelan here: http://marseluswallace.wordpress.com

VFC's Take: Great read. As I stated in my last BIEL post, however, there is no reason why investors should have to search the web for updates from the CEO or Joe Noel. If these guys are going to talk, they should talk to all investors - in my opinion - in the form of a PR or a conference call.

The constant need for investors to have to go to the Yahoo message boards to look for postings from Joe Noel or for links such as the one listed above, gives the impression that BioElectronics is just an amateur outfit that isn't quite ready for the prime time; and I don't blame jittery investors for getting nervous and bailing out.

It would be one thing if the company was just keeping quiet, but they're not - so why not issue a PR updated ALL investors on what's going on, not just those that read Yahoo boards.

On the other hand, I can't complain too much because I'm enjoying the chance to add additional shares at such a low price, but the goal of the company should not be to lower the stock price enough to make bargain-hungry investors happy.

There's always going to be something fishy about the way that BioElectronics handles certian affairs, in my opinion, mainly shady communication - but as long as they are advancing the products I see no reason to bail.

From anonymous:

hey VCF there is a very interesting pattern occurring here- TD ameritrade, scotrade and according to some reports even etrade have restricted the buying of biel shares. now take a look at ASFX, HTDS both have the identical issue, and all 3 stocks are plunging like crazy. they all have good PRs, asfx even got a FDA approval but since there is a large chunk of buyers that is cut off, they are dropping like crazy.

does this look like a naked shorting and broker manipulation or is it just me. what are our options as shareholders to investigate this? SEC wont do Sh*t

From anonymous:

Here'is some information about Ameritrade from Yahoo m/b:

"This is the response I got from Ameritrade regarding restrictions on BUY:

Good morning! I am glad to explain why TD AMERITRADE is restricting opening new positions for some securities. BIEL recently announced that they will recognize ownership or transfer of their shares only by physical certificate instead of the modern electronic book-entry system. They are encouraging shareholders to convert their stock to physical certificates.

Where companies convert to physical certificates only, it has become extremely difficult and, in some cases, impossible for brokerage firms like TD AMERITRADE to obtain shares for their clients. This can make settlement in a timely fashion difficult.

Converting to physical delivery also increases the costs associated with transferring ownership of common stock between buyers and sellers.

TD AMERITRADE is not accepting any new opening orders in such securities to reduce the risks that transactions can not be properly settled and to the added expenses associated with physical delivery of shares.

You may still sell any shares of these companies held in your accounts. Please let me know if I can assist you further.

If you have any questions please feel free to contact us for further assistance by secure e-mail or calling 888-871-9007.

We appreciate your business!"

VFC's Take: Regarding the trading issues with BIEL, I use Zecco.com to trade this stock and I've had no problem adding shares.

The whole thing sounds fishy to me - especially with ASFX and HTDS both being involved - but at the end of the mess I think that BIEL will come out on top based on the potential of the products.

I'm no fan of eitehr ASFX or HTDS, as I've mentioned here before, and both stocks raise my level of suspicion; although I know that both stocks realized some great gains for traders.

Again, if you're having trouble trading BIEL then I suggest opening a Zecco account. You don't want to miss out on adding shares at these prices - in my opinion.

As always, each investor should do their own DD and base any investment decisions on that DD.

Disclosure: VFC is long BIEL.

Briefs: SIGA, SNSS

vfcshouse@hotmail.com (VFC) — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 01:55:00 +0000

SIGA: Shares of SIGA dropped back into the mid seven dollar range on Thursday after the company announced a stock sale that raised the company $20 million. According to the 8k, the funds will be used for "general corporate purposes".

I'll admit that I did not expect this stock offering at this time from SIGA - I would have expected one after news hit regarding the BARDA contract - and I've got to thank Lenny, a regular at VFC's Stock House, for turning my attention to the March 2010 calls otherwise I may have been holding a few more December calls than I was today when news of the stock sale was announced.

The fact that the company decided to raise money now rather than wait for the Biomedical Advance Research and Development Authority (BARDA) announcement has me believing that the company has lost faith that an announcement is imminent, or simply grew impatient from waiting. When dealing with government entities, you can only wait so long before having to take some course of action regardless of your confidence that the deal will eventually be sealed.

Previous reports have indicated that company officials and those close to the situation felt a deal was close, so the delay could be as simple as BARDA waiting for their portion of the FY 2010 budget from the office of management and budget that the agency planned to use for the new contract.

In my opinion, and based on previous reports, SIGA is still confident that the contract is forthcoming, and therefore I'm not going with the March 2010 calls - which were on sale for significantly less on Thursday than they have been for a couple of weeks.

That being said, there is no way to know exactly what is holding up the deal, and that means that there is still a chance that the announcement could come any day. That's how the government operates - hurry up and wait, and then hurry up again.

However, SIGA may have felt the need to jump now rather than risk having to wait another month or so for a contract announcement.

The good side to Thursday's drop is that those potential investors who missed the run to ten dollars now have a decent entry point to buy in.

Whether it's stocks or options, SIGA is trading at a pretty attractive buy price once again; and the BARDA contract could still be announced at any time.

Of note, the 8-k mentioned an ongoing lawsuit with PharmAthene, and it's possible that these funds were immediately needed for pending litigation. Again, just my own speculation, each investor should do their own DD.

Disclosure: Long SIGA call options.

SNSS: Shares of Sunesis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. rallied Thursday on an impressive run that saw the stock reach an intra-day high of $1.84, a full 131% price increase from the open.

Earlier in the week the SNSS moved higher on news that the company's lead drug Voreloxin had proved a success in a recently completed Phase II trial that measured its effectiveness in the treatment of Acute Myeloid Leukemia (AML). However, Thursday's big run has led to speculation that additional news may be pending; maybe partnership news.

That being said, those that have held this stock from at or near its 52-week lows should reward themselves for a very successful investment and sell some shares into the spike, because chances are that the stock will retreat somewhat after such an impressive run - assuming that immediate additional news is not pending.

I still like SNSS as a great long term addition to the portfolio, but that is not to say that an investor should ignore the impressive short term gains and flip a few shares as insurance towards the long term investment.

My entry/exit strategy for SNSS revolved around trading the pending Phase II news, so I stuck to my plan and sold half of my position at just over a buck and the other half at just under a buck thirty - meaning I missed out on some additional gains, but, in my opinion, you can't complain about the profits that were to be had with the gains that SNSS realized over the past couple of weeks.

With the trade play over, I'll look for any dip to start a new position with SNSS in my long term portfolio - and I think a dip may be possible after a run like Thursday.

That being said, the market cap of just under 50 million tells me that the stock could still double in short time, so I'll be looking to get back in quick on any dips.

Another factor to consider is that a stock offering is almost a guarantee sometime soon; after all, the company still needs to fund the Phase III trials. The time to buy back in may be after an offering is announced.

Disclosure: No position.

Briefs: GNBT, VNDA

vfcshouse@hotmail.com (VFC) — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 04:15:00 +0000

GNBT: Shares of Generex spiked 15% on Wednesday on double the norm volume after the company announced that it had entered into an insulin supply agreement with Sanofi-Aventis.

The mid day press release stated that a German subsidiary of Sanofi will supply Generex with the insulin needed to produce Generex's spray-mist insulin delivery product, Oral-Lyn, for clinical trials and - if the trials are proven successful - for commercial production.

The deal with a big player like Sanofi also brings and additional level of legitimacy to Generex and Oral-Lyn, in my opinion, for those that have been sceptical about the company and the product.

Recent news has been encouraging for Generex and its shareholders, in my opinion, and the stock is still trading in what I consider to be a decent BUY zone.

Additional good news leading up to interim Phase III results could push GNBT towards the one dollar mark over the next few months; and if the Phase III results are positive, I expect a big move from this stock because I believe that the Oral-Lyn spray that delivers insulin through the inner lining of the cheek vice using a needle (or the lungs, which is the method of delivery for Mankind's insulin spray).

Disclosure: VFC is long GNBT.

VNDA: Shares of Vanda Pharmaceuticals traded twenty six cents higher on Wednesday after Jefferies & Co initiated coverage on the company with a rating of 'BUY'.

They BUY rating from Jeffries comes as the commercial launch of Vanda's schizophrenia drug Fanapt is imminent, and with powerhouse Novartis partnered to commercialize the product, the immediate future of this company is looking bright.

In addition to Fanapt, Vanda also has a sleep-aid drug, Tasimelteon, in the pipeline and according to the company's webiste, Vanda hopes to file an NDA with the FDA in mid-2011 for the product.

Of note, Titan Pharmaceuticals (TTNP) will receive up to ten percent royaltiy for sales of Fanapt due to a pre-existing licensing agreement.

Disclosure: No position VNDA, long TTNP.

Stock Watch, Thursday: CVM, BIEL

vfcshouse@hotmail.com (VFC) — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 03:28:00 +0000

CVM: With a late day surge of nearly twenty cents on Wednesday, CVM will be a stock to watch during Thursday's trading. Investors will be looking for indications of whether or not the move was for real - and marking the end of the recent downtrend.

With a late day surge like the one CVM enjoyed, it's possible that news is brewing and a PR is pending, but it's also possible that it could just be another head fake - possibly the result of manipulation - and the stock will continue to trade down for the short term.

In my opinion, the volume that accompanied the late surge would indicate that the spike was more than just a fluke.

As followers of Cel Sci know, news should be imminent regarding the validation of the Baltimore area Multikine production facility, which should be shortly followed by an announcement that the long awaited Multikine Phase III trial has commenced. For those that may be new to Cel Sci, Multikine is the company's head and neck cancer immunotherapy treatment.

An update from the LEAPS H1N1 trial at Johns Hopkins could also come at any time, and if positive, the CVM stock should respond accordingly.

On a lesser note, the website 'Motley Fool' released a late day article that gave CVM a mention, but it's likely that the Fool was just playing the 'search for clicks game (a la TheStreet.com)' with a popular stock because the article had little relevance to Cel Sci or its stock.

Anticipation is growing for shareholders of CVM, and Wednesday's late day surge only adds to the excitement.

Therefore, CVM is a stock to watch for Thursday.

Disclosure: VFC is long CVM.

BIEL.pk: After BIEL's significant price drop on Tuesday, I wrote that I still considered BIEL a nice mid to long term pick, although I continued to be sceptical of the lack of communication from the company.

Ordinarily a lack of communication from a company does not necessarily bother me because I don't like fluff - when there's something to say, then say it. This is investing, not therapy and I don't need to be coaxed and coddled with fluffy updates that say nothing.

However, in the case of BioElectronics the lack of an update from the company regarding recent events - like the very important FDA applications - is quite disturbing only because the BIEL spokesperson, Joe Noel (if it's really him), continues to take to the Yahoo message boards to keep investors 'updated' on company events.

If BioElectronics - with a potentially ground breaking technology and product - is looking to start playing with the big dogs, then the company is going to have to start acting like they belong there. If it really is Joe Noel that is passing information through the message boards, and that information is not being supported by a press release, then the management team at BioElectronics is partly to blame for the large amount of scepticism that is being directed at the company these days, and the amateur moves are playing right into the hands of those that would like to drive the price of teh stock down - in my opinion.

That being said, I'm confident that the company has big plans for 2010 and I still believe that the products will be looked at as a safe and effective alternative to Acetaminophen and Ibuprofen on a global scale. Slowly, but surely, the consumer is looking for safer and healthier alternatives to products that pose significant health risks than have been the accepted norm for too long. According to published reports, Acetaminophen messes with the liver and Ibuprofen with the kidneys; as I've said before, I like to save my liver damage for Grey Goose, not Tylenol - and ActiPatch offers a nice alternative to the alleged liver-damaging effects of Tylenol.

Mid to long term minded investors should take advantage of the current drop in BIEL stock price, in my opinion, because eventually the company will start talking - and if they start talking in the form of FDA approvals, then the stock could move up very quickly.

Wednesday's tease to just under four cents could indicate that a further drop is in store for the very near term, and if that's the case I'd consider it a gift to buy more shares of BIEL in the three cent range.

Long term investors who are confident in the future of the company just need to stomach out the dip in price and trade on their own DD, not the volatility of the day.

However, it's the recent volatility in the stock, and the possibility of pending news, that makes BIEL a stock to watch on Thursday.

Briefs: BIEL, CSUH

vfcshouse@hotmail.com (VFC) — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 04:21:00 +0000

BIEL.pk: Shares of BioElectronics essentially collapsed during late afternoon trading on Tuesday when the stock dropped to a low of .041 cents before recovering slightly to close the day at .049.

The drop definitely raised some eyebrows as many longs wondered if something went wrong with the FDA applications and shorts were quick to cry doomsday for the company.

In my opinion, there's still no reason to question the mid to long term potential of the company, but there is also reason to remain sceptical about some of the recent activities of the company and the stock.

First off, I'm sticking with BIEL for the long term, based mainly on the fact that I believe that the company's products have the potential to gain market share as healthier alternatives to Acetaminophen and Ibuprofen on a global scale - especially since consumers are beginning to take notice of the health risks associated with those medications. Since I believe that ActiPatch and the sister products will be winning products, I jumped at the chance to add shares today on the dip. I missed buying at the bottom, unfortunately, but I was able to pick up some shares for .045 cents.

If the stock drops even more than it did on Tuesday, a possibility in my opinion, I'll add even more, depending on any associated news that may be released in conjunction with the stock action.

While it's no secret that I'm sticking with BIEL based on the potential of the product, there's still enough going on to keep investors sceptical and on edge. Tuesday's trading may have been a demonstration of just how on edge - and impatient - BIEL investors have become.

The biggest cause of uneasiness for BIEL investors of late has been, in my opinion, the lack of information being released from the company - especially regarding the FDA applications. The silence from BioElectronics is almost deafening and I do not consider Yahoo message board posts from spokesperson Joe Noel an update from the company. To the contrary, the fact that Noel had resorted to using the Yahoo message boards to communicate with shareholders did more to hurt the image of the company than help. Quite simply, it's a demonstration of un-professionalism from BIEL, and shareholders deserve better.

Unless news from the company itself is forthcoming, investors are going to be antsy; and antsy investors means volatility like we saw Tuesday.

I'll play the volatility because I believe that eventually the product potential will overtake the recent shortcomings, but it's still worth selling into the spikes with this one.

However, the sudden drop and subsequent recovery in price could also be an indicator that news is imminent, making BIEL a stock to watch for Wednesday.

Disclosure: VFC is long BIEL.

CSUH: Shares of Celsius Holdings dropped back into the mid twenty cent range after an early morning PR announced that the calorie-burning Celsius beverage was making an additional move into the South.

BI-LO supermarkets, located in North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia and Tennessee will begin carrying the Green Tea Raspberry Acai and sparkling Wild Berry flavors of the product.

While additional distribution is always encouraging, the BI-LO news will likely be received by investors as a teaser, since many investors are awaiting news of a Wal Mart or Costco deal.

BI-LO has 215 stores throughout the south, according to Tuesday's PR.

Disclosure: VFC is long CSUH.

Readers Respond: Misguided Feedback

vfcshouse@hotmail.com (VFC) — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 03:37:00 +0000

An anonymous comment from someone who is seemingly attempting to misrepresent the truth:

Hey VFC -- How come you seem to own every small-cap bio that's moving higher but when I check back in your archives I find no mention of you ever discussing them? Like today, with SNSS and PCYC -- you say you own them but when did you ever talk about these stocks before? Did you buy these stocks today?

I mean no offense, but fair is fair. You should think about posting your full portfolio -- winners and losers -- so we can see what you own and when.

VFC's Take: While I encourage constructive feedback, I do ask that the feedback at least be based on a little bit of effort or DD on the part the person giving the feedback. In the case of this comment, it's simply either an intentional untruth or just pure laziness.

I've stated this many times before, the Google search tool at the top of the page is the easiest way to search my site for previous posts regarding a certain subject or a stock. I know from looking at my web page stats that many readers use that tool dozens of times a day to find what they're looking for.

Whoever posted this comment obviously did not either use the search tool OR look through the blog archives (as so claimed) because I've written at least nine updates on PCYC over the past year or so and have mentioned the stock in related posts numerous other times.

Here's the first time I called PCYC a good long term pick on the blog - dated June 7th, 2008. A quick, ten second search will show you the rest.

As for SNSS, this one was very recently tipped to me by a reader and I first posted an update on this stock on December 5th - and I also mentioned that I was long at that point.

So, Since all posts of the current month are listed on the right side of the web page, I find it hard to believe that this anonymous commenter looked too hard through the archives to see if I'd written on SNSS before Monday.

I try to put some constructive effort into this blog, so I would appreciate it if any feedback is met with some constructive DD rather than attempts at misleading readers. In this case, it would have taken about 35 or 40 seconds of DD to see where I stood on these stocks and for about how long I've followed them.

As for the suggestion that I post all of my holdings and trades - that's just not feasible and defeats the purpose of what I do here.

First of all, this is a non-subscription personal opinion blog. I run it as a hobby and my only financial benefits to keeping this blog going are through the pay-per-click Google text ads and the commission-based Linkshare picture ads. I've run the idea through my head of posting my active holdings and trades on the blog, but when considering the extra time and effort that I would need to dedicate to this hobby, I just didn't think that would be feasible at this time. I like the way the style/format is going and it's likely to remain this way unless for some reason this were to become more than a hobby for me.

Additionally, the point of this blog is not to convince people to do what I do, but to share ideas, tips and investment strategies. I don't think that looking at a listing of what someone else owns does anyone any good at trying to come up with an investment strategy of their own. Merely looking at holdings does not tell the full story - and that's what I like to concentrate on; thought processes and strategies.

For instance, Jim Cramer asks people to pay up big time to follow his trades, but I think that feeds into the 'take the easy way out' syndrome - let someone else do the thinking for you. What I believe in is each person having the knowledge, resources and confidence to think for themselves in the investing world and not simply look at a snapshot of someone else's holdings.

That being said, I often post in my updates when I am buying, selling or accumulating a particular stock. If you're looking to see what I've been doing with a particular stock, I suggest the Google search tool at the top of the page.

I appreciate the readership, but I do ask that if you're going to come at me with misguided facts, at least do a little bit of DD first to see if I actually have posted about a stock, rather than just assuming that I haven't.

I mean no offense, but fair is far.