Real Estate News, Commentary and Opinion

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2011-10-21T15:13:00.001-05:00

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-Dan

What housing market surveys are telling us

2011-10-12T14:28:00.008-05:00

by Dan Krell © 2011
DanKrell.com

You’ve probably heard, now and then, reports of housing surveys giving a status report of the housing and the real estate market. Of course the scientific method is forgotten for a chance at a headline; technical details and summaries are usually condensed to a one sentenced sound-bite. If you’ve ever taken the time to look into the survey results to see the samples and questions, you can see that any one poll is only a snapshot of respondents’ attitudes at the time of the survey.

The results of recent housing surveys conducted by Fannie Mae (fanniemae.com) are telling of the current economic environment. Reported quarterly and monthly, the National Housing Survey (NHS) “offers a window into the opinions of Americans across the country…” about owning and renting a home as well as personal finances and confidence in the economy.

The most recent quarterly NHS results were released August 15th, and quoted Doug Duncan, vice president and chief economist of Fannie Mae, as saying, “… consumer spending, which accounts for about 70 percent of the economy, ground to a halt in the second quarter. Consumers are more hesitant to take on additional financial commitments, and a setback to confidence means a setback to the recovery of the housing market." Additionally, the quarterly survey indicated increasing consumer pessimism as employment concerns tops the list, economy on wrong track…yada, yada, yada.

Ok, not news to you. But how about trends indicating a further decline of the housing market?

The most recent monthly NHS (released October 10th) reported a “marked deterioration” of consumer home price expectancies. Mr. Duncan was quoted here saying that, “…The lack of a sense of urgency to buy homes, given expectations for further declines in home prices and continued low mortgage rates, coupled with general pessimism regarding their own personal finances and the economy, bodes poorly for the recovery of the housing market.”

The Home Values Survey (HVS) is another telling survey, which is conducted by Homegain (homegain.com); and examines Realtor® and consumer sentiment about the housing market and economy. The most recent Regional HVS was reported September 11th for Q3 indicated: that although a majority of real estate agents surveyed reported their client’s homes depreciated in value, home sellers continued to over-value their homes; home buyers overwhelmingly reported that homes were overpriced; 39% of home buyers surveyed in the Northeast reported that they thought homes were overpriced 10%- to 20%; and an overwhelming majority of real estate agents surveyed in the Northeast (62%) reported they believed that home values would decrease in the next six months.

The outlook is not all doom and gloom. Some surveys report a positive spin as well.

Although a Rasmussen Reports (rasmussenreports.com ) survey reported on September 21st indicated that 48% of adults nationwide felt that buying a home is the best investment for one’s family, a commentary posted on rasmussenreports.com (The Housing Bust Has a Good Side by Froma Harrop; September 22nd) promotes the idea that the housing downturn has brought home owners back to fiscal reality.

Additionally, Gallop (gallop.com) reported in April that of the American adults surveyed, there were just as many who felt that the average home price would decrease (30%) than increase (28%) in the coming year. And, of course- an overwhelming majority of those surveyed (69%) felt it was a good time to buy a home.

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This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. This article was originally published in the Montgomery County Sentinel the week of October 10, 2011. Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws. Copyright © 2011 Dan Krell.

Celebrity homes

2011-10-06T07:38:00.006-05:00

by Dan Krell © 2011
DanKrell.com

Nothing grabs the public’s attention more than juicy celebrity gossip. So, it shouldn’t have surprised me when I received what seemed to be endless calls from Hollywood gossip reporters asking about Kate Gosselin’s move to Rockville, MD. At first, I thought the calls were from pranksters because I had no idea who Kate Gosselin was (I’m not a TV junkie, so I was unaware of her celebrity status); but when I was enlightened to her realty-TV fame, I was taken aback by the amount of attention and energy that was garnered just by a rumor. But that was in 2009.

Sure, I know you’re wondering “why would a celebrity be moving to Bethesda?” Well, the MD-DC-VA area attracts many celebrities. Of course there are the home grown celebs who have moved away, but the area attracts celebs of all kinds from around the world. Some celebs who live or have lived in the area are known for their on screen achievements, some are known for their writing ability, some are known for their contributions to their respective fields, some are royalty, and some are known just for their wealth.

Without question, the MD-DC-VA area attracts the political elite from around the world, not just because DC is the seat of government, but it is also perceived as a seat of world power. And don’t forget the many sports stars who choose to live locally as well; even though they don’t have to make their permanent homes locally, many do.

Even Donald Trump knows the attraction value of the area. A purchase of a Sterling, VA golf course on the Potomac River in 2009 was not the only recent local real estate purchase; his purchase of a Virginia vineyard made headlines earlier this year.

It’s only natural to be interested in how the rich and famous live, it taps into our human ambition and need for achievement; at some unconscious level, peeking into celeb lifestyles may also provide motivation or a vision of aspiration. But looking into the “window” of their home, so to speak, is a bit different than celebrity spotting around town with the paparazzi.

The interest in celeb homes and lifestyles has sparked such TV shows as MTV Cribs (mtv.com) and even Joan River’s show How’d You Get So Rich?(tvland.com). Looking inside a celeb’s home can give you a view of the elegant, trendy, or even cutting edge design. But most of all it allows a peek into a lifestyle that may seem familiar; many celeb homes are focused on family, on comfort, and around food (the kitchen).

Be warned- no matter how curious you are, don’t try to peek through the windows of a celebrity’s home (or anyone’s home for that matter) as you may wind up being detained by the police (or worse). If you’re interested in celebrities and their lifestyles, there is no loss for information in today’s saturated Media. Local TV shows and internet websites can not only give you the scoop on local celebs’ homes, some provide interior pictures and tours. Websites such as DC Curbed (dc.curbed.com) and The Real Estalker (realestalker.blogspot.com) have the latest info on celebs homes.

Today, the calls asking about celebrities moving into or out of town continue. But here’s a tip- don’t ask the real estate agent: a good agent knows the value of discretion for the sake of their famous client.

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This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. This article was originally published in the Montgomery County Sentinel the week of October 3, 2011. Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws. Copyright © 2011 Dan Krell.

The best laid plans of mice and men…

2011-09-30T07:52:00.006-05:00

by Dan Krell © 2011
DanKrell.com

PlanMaryland (Plan.Maryland.gov) appears to be the next stage of smart growth planning in Maryland. When the first draft was announced earlier this year, you can imagine that some were thrilled and some, well, not so much.

Articles and blogs abound heaping praise, while some are expressing criticism and concerns about the role of government. Aaron Davis’ August 19th Washington Post Article (O’Malley, Md. counties begin battle over development plan) frames the debate and expresses the concerns of some that include “central planning” and mandates. While advocates of such a plan say “it’s about time,” critics are saying that the plan is moving “too quickly.”

Ultimately, the plan’s intention appears to be “… a collaborative process between the State and local governments to address critical issues of environmental and fiscal sustainability” while focusing on three main goals: 1) “Concentrate development and redevelopment in communities where there is existing and planned infrastructure”; 2) “Preserve and protect environmentally sensitive and rural lands and resources from the impacts of development”; and 3) “Ensure that a desirable quality of life in Maryland’s communities is sustainable.”

Regardless of what either side says about the plan’s intensions, or anticipates with its implementation; here’s what is stated in the most recent draft of PlanMaryland (which is available at Plan.Maryland.gov):

PlanMaryland intends to: improve the way in which state agencies and local governments work together to accomplish common goals and objectives for growth, development and preservation; help accommodate a projected 1 million additional residents, 500,000 new households and 600,000 new jobs by the year 2035 without sacrificing agricultural and natural resources; stimulate economic development and revitalization in towns, cities and other existing communities that have facilities to support growth; save 300,000+ acres of farmland and forest over the next 25 years; save Maryland an estimated $1.5 billion a year in infrastructure costs during the next 20 years through a smart-growth approach to land use; address the rapid pace of land consumption, which since 1970 has escalated at double the rate of housing growth and triple the rate of population increase.

PlanMaryland is not: a substitute for local comprehensive plans nor will it take away local planning and zoning authority; a top-down approach to force compliance with a statewide land-use plan; a silver bullet that will solve all problems (but is a strategic plan to address issues such as community disinvestment, sprawl development and inefficient use of existing resources); a “one size fits all” approach (PlanMaryland recognizes that different areas of the state have different characteristics, problems, issues and opportunities); a mandate to spend more (if PlanMaryland helps local governments implement their existing comprehensive plans, it will save money by avoiding expenditures for unnecessary infrastructure and other costs).

Robert Burns once said (in a Scottish poem) “The best laid plans of mice and men…go oft awry.” Before implementing a new “vision,” one might ask, “How has smart growth policies impacted growth and development during the last twenty years?” On the exterior, PlanMaryland appears well intentioned to protect environmentally sensitive areas and “ensure” quality of life. However, there’s more at stake than just a “centralized” vision of quality of life through smart growth.

The current revision of PlanMaryland is open for public comments until November 9th. So, if you have an opinion, here’s your chance voice it on the PlanMaryland website.

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This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. This article was originally published in the Montgomery County Sentinel the week of September 26, 2011. Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws. Copyright © 2011 Dan Krell.

You can be Green with little effort and cost

2011-09-22T07:52:00.008-05:00

By Dan Krell © 2011
DanKrell.com

Being green has become mired in controversy and scandal. As “green jobs” are being touted to save our economy; the recent controversy surrounding the solar company, Solyndra, is making some people wonder if a green agenda is more than just making your home more energy efficient. Some might even argue “green” is becoming political and getting lost in the eco-debate.

However, after sifting through the rhetoric, being green is about conserving resources and saving you money; and it doesn’t have to cost you a small fortune either (like retro-fitting your home with “green technology” that might take years to break even on your investment). Being green is easy. The Federal Trade Commission (FTC.gov) provides a guide on conserving energy and saving money in your home entitled, "Saving Starts @ Home: The Inside Story on Conserving Energy". The publication breaks down green activities to specific areas of the home.

The guide offers many money saving tips, including these for your appliances: if possible- move your refrigerator away from the stove, dishwasher and vents; check that refrigerator seals are tight; run the dishwasher when it is full (don’t overload); use pots that fit the burners of your stove and use lids on pots to allow for a lower cooking temperature; lower hot water heater thermostats to 120 degrees rather than the pre-set 140 degrees; clean lint from clothes dryer each load to make your dryer run more efficiently.

Lighting is another area where you can conserve energy. The guide points out that there is a wide variety of lighting which should be compared for your specific needs. Comparing lighting should be easy as bulb packaging is required to have information such as light output (how much light the bulb produces, measured in lumens.); energy usage (the total electrical power a bulb uses measured in watts.); voltage, if the bulb is not 120 volts; average life in hours (how long the bulb will last); and the number of bulbs in the package (if more than one).

Certainly, buying a new high efficiency HVAC system might show your ecological awareness; however the guide suggests that you can increase your existing HVAC system’s efficiency through regular maintenance by a licensed professional. Increased HVAC efficiency can be achieved by having a licensed professional seal leaky ducts and ensuring that airflow is distributed appropriately. Also, remember to replace filters as recommended. Additional ways to make your furnace more efficient include: checking caulking and weather-stripping in your home and repair if necessary; installing a programmable thermostat to control air temperature while you’re away from home; consider installing ceiling fans and/or a whole house fan to assist with air circulation; sealing holes around plumbing and heating pipes; and consider installing window coverings.

The guide cautions you about advertisements of energy saving products and services. Some ads are for gimmicks that don’t deliver what’s promised. Take your time to carefully assess claims; and don’t be pressured into making a decision from contractors or door to door salespeople. The guide states, “If you sign a contract in your home or somewhere other than a company’s permanent place of business, the FTC’s ‘Cooling-Off Rule’ gives you three business days to cancel.”

Ultimately, creating green habits can be easy and should not cost you much; green habits not only save resources, but can save you money too.

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This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. This article was originally published in the Montgomery County Sentinel the week of September 19, 2011. Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws. Copyright © 2011 Dan Krell.