Fuzzy Chaos

Types of Co-workers

noreply@blogger.com (ashutosh kulkarni) — Sun, 09 Sep 2012 17:46:00 +0000

There are various types of co-workers i can describe them in two categories 1) Those who have Good/Bad aptitude 2) Those who have Good/Bad attitude Then there is a third type of person that is hired by the Mgmnt team who has no good attitude or aptitude . I haven't figured out why but some of reasons maybe as follows 1) Do the dirty laundry 2) It's probably a give or take with the customer like forgive our faults if we hire your person This person has a unique ability to butter up the bosses and at the same time create havoc within the team. Lack of technical abilities puts the person unique ability to create politics within his team, or generate sympathies with the bosses.

Joe Biden : 100 Days 100 Projects

noreply@blogger.com (ashutosh kulkarni) — Wed, 27 May 2009 19:45:00 +0000

Hundred Days

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Hot in trade and plate Food

noreply@blogger.com (ashutosh kulkarni) — Mon, 25 May 2009 03:18:00 +0000

Traders are using doomsday psychology in dealing with the trade here, I frequently hear them saying foodgrains and edible commodities as a tangible source or margin in near future when armageddon comes on earth, however there are also other significant reasons the best one is world populaiton increasing more and more stomachs to be filled every day the food stocks or commoditiy stocks are bound to reach high...not in near future ie 3 months then definately in 1 year or so.... simple math and to top of it Bloomberg.com ran a story quoting Brazil claiming that indian sugarcare produce is not upto mark so sugar price is bound to shoot 20% lets c whether the forecast is true or not but as far as i know the rain fall has been good India which is always the primary cause for crop failure however same cannot be said about future when rainfalls are predicted to be lesser and lesser... dammn global warming...

My bet would be starting Aqua farm or Pisciculture growing tuna fish in farms using sea water ... is the bet business right now... world needs food make it and supply it...

Deal made on the 13th hole....obsession of golf

noreply@blogger.com (ashutosh kulkarni) — Mon, 25 May 2009 02:35:00 +0000

Ever since i came to united states I have always heard a saying " business deals are done on 13th hole" being from a 3rd world country golf hasnt had ever been formally or informally introduced to me nor understood why wealthy men in western countries frequent golf courses more often then the middle classs ? why is golf treated as a formal sport on ESPN when the physicall skill is minimal rather negligible unless u consider a swing form of strenious exercise or stolling in park to collect tiny ball from woods as some sort of physical exercise. I however donot consider that it is devoid of skills, rather think it falls in that category, however amongst the skill oriented sports like rifle shooting or archery or figure skating i dont find golf to be amongst the challenging.

When i moved to jersey and started living near a golf course where i go every day to jog, my curiosity towards the game grew stronger as to what makes this game so famous !!! however when i observed few people it struck to me as simple three fold strategy what makes deals on 13th hole

Reason 1:

It gives a sense of exclusivity to those who are playing rather the rich are left there alone hitting ball with a stick training their eye tirelessly towards a hole in a ground trying best to calculate humidity , flow of the wind and slope to hit the ball.......it was all about exclusivity...they are left there alone in their own world disturbed by no one taken care by all the country club the subordinates etc etc.....

Reason 2:

Playability : When i was growing up my mum and dad said that tennis is a rich man's sport didn realise much till i saw Nantucket and Hamptons full of back yard tennis courts , now tennis is a pretty strenious and skill full sport however its too much for the rich so an easier way out is play golf u just got a hit the ball somewhere....

Reason 3:

Inherited: I think Golf has become an icon sports for rich and famous to play and clear their minds of to think about how to make more money. And the same habits are carried out by their kids and their kids etcc......

I still dont think these may be sufficient enough reasons ..... gosh will ask some golfer on the golf course some day.....

News Bite of elliot spitzer and Ariana

noreply@blogger.com (ashutosh kulkarni) — Fri, 08 May 2009 01:28:00 +0000

What direction is US heading ???

noreply@blogger.com (ashutosh kulkarni) — Thu, 07 May 2009 08:21:00 +0000

US was long considered to be a defiant force politically economically and Millitarily, a systematic events starting from sept 9/11 changed this country unfortunately for a negative direction, although i must put a caveat that this is still the best country in the world.. following sequence puts me a in a introspection mode

Winds of change

1"Never before war was fought on US homeland in which 3000 people died " Condoleeza Rice

2 Never before in history on US hurricane size of hurricane Katrina caused so much human and material damage which exposed country's vulnerable , some critics say 3rd world country were better dealing with the katrina aftermath then US statement is disputed but some cases of looting by police officers, curfew, martial law, gang violence etc aggravated during this period

3 The war which is now termed as unnecessary was initiated

4 Reduction in US political clout in europe and middle east a lot of resentment due to war and incoherent administration ..i think its a debatable point

5.Systematic failure of Banking system due to greed of few banking institutions which have now ceased to exist or under govt survelliance

6.Imposition of taxes for outsourcing companies while spreading free trading little bit debatable . Where are we moving free global trade or protectionism..??...it is complete obfuscation to me

7 Free general healthcare for all or reduction in health insurance costs .... completely obfuscation ???

8 Getting directed on economic policies from China ..........ooh yea i forgot they hold max number of treasury notes.... can hold us ransom anytime

9 Falling levels of literacy and education structure ... absolute lack of skilled talent pool

10 Increase in corruption in both higher and lower levels of governmental hierarchy

11. Polarization on basis of religion etc

Last time i checked up on internet was these problems were similar to a 3rd world country agreed the standard of living and quality of living has not changed but yes but above noises sound very similar to a developing country.... these points cover all political millitary and economic clout reduction of US... country should buck up and work hard under current administration and restore its glory ... world need US to be strong in all three departments ....

Fibonacci retracement

noreply@blogger.com (ashutosh kulkarni) — Sun, 03 May 2009 23:20:00 +0000

Fibonacci retracement

Fibonacci is a set of number sequence generated by adding up two numbers occuring in a number series for eg number series = 1 2 3 4 5
fibo series 1 1 3 5 8 13 etc

similarly stock also show a similar approach when point A goes to point B there is always a pressure of correction or retracement, how much will these retracement go there are three critical points 38.2%or original 50% and 61.x % as shown in the figure, so first resistance occurs at 38% and if it passes that 50% is next catch and thirdly 61.8 levels.

Next obvious question arises is how are we getting the percentages.... 3/5 ,5/8, 8/13 all generate a number around 0.618x

.382 = .618 squared

.500 = 1 ÷ 2, the second and third numbers in the series

.786 = square root of .618

1.000 = 1.618 x .618

1.272 = square root of 1.618

2.618 = 1.618 squared

I am posting a video which describes in detail the workings of Fibo nacci retracement

Also go to Afraidtotrade.com where corey rosenbloom has posted some cool retracement scenarios... India's NIFTY

ref: swing-trade-stock.com

Find more videos like this on ChartWatchers

Buffet : Newspapers are Done !!!!

noreply@blogger.com (ashutosh kulkarni) — Sat, 02 May 2009 23:38:00 +0000

With new media encroaching webosphere twitterosphere blogosphere etc it has become painful for print media to gets its due. When Helen Mirren in State of Play (2009) says to Crowe that "Ms. Della Frye churns out a copy of news paper every hour through her blog" i was stunned , the fact that news papers are becoming quickly things of past but also with the effect of digital media on earning potential of a print media journalist someone like Russell Crowe character in the movie is becoming bleak day bye day.

Recently Ariana Huffington of huffington post and Tom Curley if i am not wrong of Associated Press were fueding on Charlie Rose on the ownershipf links, in lieu of Associated Press deciding to come down hard on its content users, but Arianna was pat in replying that links have become assets how well you monetize them is upto you giving example of MSNBC.COM and THEDAILYSOW.COM embbedable players who monetize.I agree with her people want to read the news where they like and not on AP or Reuters with due respect to the amount of journalism they do but thats the bitter truth. Today Buffet nailed the coffin saying that none in their sane minds would like to buy a news paper since news have become " free " !!! that a disruptive technology like internet has forced to change our lives and our livelihood.

However there are many ways the hard working journalists from AP or Reuters can earn their due I am putting one example of the monetizing ways of Reuters

A columns from Buffet's news conf from REUTERS :

Buffett offers bleak outlook for U.S. newspapers

what is Fundamental anlaysis and Technical Analysis

noreply@blogger.com (ashutosh kulkarni) — Fri, 01 May 2009 02:31:00 +0000

I have been hearing a lot of sound bites from business media about "Fundamental Analysis" and "Technical Analysis".Its intriguing to discern it in laymans term for me so help me remember in future i write this blog and all those fellow amateurs this one

Fundamental Analysis

When a trader or a Broker takes a investing decision based on the company financials balance sheet etc and overall climate of socio economic conditions in surrounding area it is called a fundamental trade. For example a political coup in Pakistan or nationalization rumors in Venezuela or say bad profit for the quarter or say political stability in China or change in govt in India etc results in the trader to infer value of a company.
However these days these fundamentals are proving to be costlier to be relied on as the market is really volatile and any speculations could be potentially hitting a nail on your foot.

Technical Analysis

When trader or a broker takes the investing decision based on daily volume , and relies on mathematical analysis using regression techniques or predictive modelling, reversion of mean or technicals like standard deviation,variance, etc Charts which are available on finance.yahoo.com is called as trade on technical analysis.

God knows how the markets are relying these days but for technical trading these days is automatic and computational financial engineering is used as long as the models work so is good once they stop it comes back to sentimental or emotional trading.

check out google: Quant funds to find out different type of mutual funds or hedge funds trading using quantitative analysis...

How to sell a Tennis racket 101

noreply@blogger.com (ashutosh kulkarni) — Thu, 30 Apr 2009 23:47:00 +0000

Really !!! world's No. 3 Novak Djokovic selling a racket. Mind boggling ad funny at times boring sometime but overall very very intriguing and it got my attention so kudos to the marketing team.... and kuods to Djokovic to agreeing on doing it.

chrysler bankrupt

noreply@blogger.com (ashutosh kulkarni) — Thu, 30 Apr 2009 21:09:00 +0000

A great company comes to its knees...

Bank Stress Test Conditions......

noreply@blogger.com (ashutosh kulkarni) — Sun, 26 Apr 2009 20:30:00 +0000

Un-employment rate - (2010) 10.3 % 2009current 8.9
House Value decline (2010) 30% current 2009 20%
Page 6 of the doc is where the meat is

Stress Test Assumptions Stress Test Assumptions zerohedge

Publish at Scribd or explore others: Internet & Technolog software testing

Elliot wave theory on Bombay Stock Exchange

noreply@blogger.com (ashutosh kulkarni) — Sun, 26 Apr 2009 00:38:00 +0000

Yes, like everyone else i am also bitten by the elliotwave theory bug... so i decided to put it to test. Since many bloggers / columnist commentators have sucked curiosity juice from dow jones's comparison to elliotwave i am going to compare it to international stock exchange my pic India's Bombay Stock Exchange's Sensitive Index (SENSEX).

Elliot wave theory works on basis of fibonacci number sequence. where wave 1,3,5 are upward going waves while 2 and 4 are correctional waves. This theory was put in practice by Proff Prechter who was a Trading Analyst who set a 440% return record on options account in 1989 trading match .... ok enough of his background, although this is mathematically related theory pertaining to fibonacci sequence and its golden ratio of 1.6343 Precther and co. beleives that this number occurs in non-randomly fashion in today's stock market. Well tough to beleive that..... but if you implement a mass socio-economic tag or mass psychology tag then suddenly the theory becomes a hot property.

The theory is taught in many financial institutions as non-technical mass psychology theory so that traders can keep them selves ahead of the market....
lets put this theory to test I have taken a 5 year period of BSE : sensex and compared it witht he elliotwave thoery, okay to be precise i am comparing a "cycle"

WIKIPEDIA REFERENCE

The classification of a wave at any particular degree can vary, though practitioners generally agree on the standard order of degrees (approximate durations given):

* Grand supercycle: multi-century

* Supercycle: multi-decade (about 40-70 years)

* Cycle: one year to several years (or even several decades under an Elliott Extension)

* Primary: a few months to a couple of years

* Intermediate: weeks to months

* Minor: weeks

* Minute: days

* Minuette: hours

* Subminuette: minutes

ELLIOT WAVE

BOMBAY STOCK EXCHANGE APR 04-APR09

Halleluajh !!! wooow this thinge fits like a glove !!!!! in the five year spread... this means that we are giong to see one more drop Or below is the end of wave... although i must admit that i have chosen random interval of the uptick and down tick wave .... its like i am biasing the data to fit the model .... but over all first impression not bad... but i wont stop the autopsy .... too vage

Koreans making move on downturn

noreply@blogger.com (ashutosh kulkarni) — Thu, 23 Apr 2009 22:45:00 +0000

First time I came to know about rapid development of South Korean ambition to become a Financial hub, supply chain hub, manufacturing hub, and information technology hub was in a class i took with my proff from industrial engineering. That was the first time I looked at the Korea rather Korean economy for the first time and read about the leaps and bounds taking place in the country.

Recently was again reminded of the gallops taken by the nation when i was reading news about how a KIA plant in Georgia state,US starting this december is been looked upon like an godly saviour. TO me its purely amazing how much the Korean technology economy has become reliable and mutated that they can afford to put up plants in USA to manufacture cars giving honda's and Toyota's a tough time ( Hyundai was voted as best car and they made sure they advertised it :D ) .People in the town call the kia factory as "god sent gift" which will employ thousands and would boost neighbouring economy.The koreans are shrewd businessmen like the Chinese who are harnessing the downturn the Koreans too are lapping up huge ammount of commercial rental property at dirt cheap prices. Of course like many others i too presume that the crisis is not going to last throughout life considering this the investment is bound to give an awesome fruit in near future. However one thing concerns me is the reduction in the manufacturing sector where thousands jobs lost this recession has really brought it to its knees this was also indicated by the reduction in import of spot cargoes containing natural gas by the Korean's. Overall i feel that Koreans and then Chinese and then Indian in same priority order should be bet on ..........

But the bases are set here today's KOSPI from www.Bloomberg.com

My twitter active

noreply@blogger.com (ashutosh kulkarni) — Tue, 21 Apr 2009 18:50:00 +0000

WWW.TWITTER.COM/a4ashu

Reserve Bank of India reduces its intrest rates

noreply@blogger.com (ashutosh kulkarni) — Tue, 21 Apr 2009 17:41:00 +0000

Indian Reserve Bank of India cut its lending rate by 25 basis points i.e. 0.25%
repo rate has been cut to 4.75 per cent from the existing 5 per
cent while the reverse repo has been cut to 3.25 per cent from the existing 3.5 per cent.RBI cuts interest rates by 25 bps LINK

Other headlines
RBI on a shopping spree for oil bonds

RBI to upgrade regulations to deal with menace of tax havens

A recent study indicates people from Indian Subcontinent have stashed more than 150billion $ in overseas places like, lichenstein, Mauritius, Switzerland etc .... U.S has started a crack down lets c what Indian regulators do about it

Convolution of information

noreply@blogger.com (ashutosh kulkarni) — Tue, 21 Apr 2009 16:35:00 +0000

'Worst is over; India to be on recovery path in 2-3 quarters'

"Dubai's Ruler Says the Worst Is Over"
but down in the third para he says "stimulus packages had helped the economy "shift . . . from the crisis mode to the solution"
Dubai has seen its property market collapse and other main parts of the services-led economy slow down.Spiralling debt and a lack of short-term funding forced the government to take out a $10bn (£6.8bn) loan from the central bank in February to prevent default and help pay government invoices.
"
arrrrrgh too confusing sir......

"US hopes the worst is over"
The thrid para says ...............
"We are in a period of extreme uncertainty but to be optimistic I would say that at least there are some indicators which are not as bad as they were in the past,” Pier Carlo Padoan, the OECD vice director, said in Berlin on Saturday. "

Cnbc thinks susan boyle can save economy
whossssssssh what has world come to

A discussion on elliot wave theory

noreply@blogger.com (ashutosh kulkarni) — Tue, 21 Apr 2009 16:29:00 +0000

I heard this on thedisciplinedinvestor.com intresting elliot wave theory is back in fashion...i should admit i have no clue whats logic in elliot wave being applied to a stock market but authors here try to explain it.

ref: thedisciplinedinvestor.com
afraidtotrade.com

TDI Podcast 103: Elliott Wave Theory in Action

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Improved Magic words of the Nassim "Black Swan" Taleb..

noreply@blogger.com (ashutosh kulkarni) — Tue, 21 Apr 2009 00:18:00 +0000

Nassim Taleb has come up with improved 10 point scenario to make world black swan free.... nearly impossible task but worth a braincell exercise

Ten principles for a Black Swan-proofworld By Nassim Nicholas Taleb

How to have negative Federal rates 101

noreply@blogger.com (ashutosh kulkarni) — Mon, 20 Apr 2009 22:51:00 +0000

Interest rates have always been a motivator to circulate money in the market, with fed rates bottoming out i always wonder would there be a chance of fed going negative percentage. What i mean is say fed loans you 1000 bucks and your return 970 a return that is negative 3%. Why would anyone is such a sane mind would do that? any kindergartner would answer as ..no!!.. instead people would hoard it !!!..however this would not solve the problem we got in the first place by lending money to unqualified borrowers who foreclosed resulting in a spanner thrown in credit circulation.

I was reading a article in new york times by author Proff Gregory Mankiw one of his student suggested the following LINK

Unless, that is, we figure out a way to make holding money less attractive.

At one of my recent Harvard seminars, a graduate student proposed a clever scheme to do exactly that. (I will let the student remain anonymous. In case he ever wants to pursue a career as a central banker, having his name associated with this idea probably won’t help.)

Imagine that the Fed were to announce that, a year from today, it would pick a digit from zero to 9 out of a hat. All currency with a serial number ending in that digit would no longer be legal tender. Suddenly, the expected return to holding currency would become negative 10 percent.

That move would free the Fed to cut interest rates below zero. People would be delighted to lend money at negative 3 percent, since losing 3 percent is better than losing 10.

Of course, some people might decide that at those rates, they would rather spend the money — for example, by buying a new car. But because expanding aggregate demand is precisely the goal of the interest rate cut, such an incentive isn’t a flaw — it’s a benefit

Although this is a very clever scenario has never been happened before and chances are almost what Taleb would call as Black swan that it might happen :D. A seemingly Ridiculous thought which might make lending more money than hoarding feasible, hands down to the thinker.Interestingly China recently published that it has about 1.29tr $ hard cash will be driven to insanity if such a event occurs and might lend US back in negative interest terms , who knows actually this has tickle my brains to build castles in air. I don't know what other tricks the proff Mankiw's students have in their hat .... like currency expiration date, private circulation of money (deteroit dollar).In these days of electronic exchange of currency how do i know that currency given to me as salary has the number selected by fed to abolish...less than 5% of currency is circulated or stored in physical form.
There is continuing article in economist on this LINK on how to scare the hell out of china...
Rationally thinking china is doing a great national service for survival of United States, by buying and fed treasury bill, supplying high quality goods at reasonable price, and thus allowing the sinking dollar to cling straw. Scaring china out of 10% of its foreign exchange holding would be the day US would be out of existence.

DATA download links

noreply@blogger.com (ashutosh kulkarni) — Sun, 19 Apr 2009 01:49:00 +0000

1. Historical FX Rates: http://oanda.com/convert/fxhistory
2. Historical Stock Prices: YHOO: Historical Prices for YAHOO INC - Yahoo! Finance
3. Recent LIBOR rates: BBA - British Bankers' Association - BBA LIBOR
4. Some Implied Volatilities: http://www.ivolatility.com
5. Delayed Commodities: http://www.liffe-commodities.com/
6. US Fundamentals: http://www.sec.gov

Economic data

UK: http://www.statistics.gov.uk
US: http://www.census.gov ,
http://www.bls.gov ,
http://www.federalreserve.gov ,
http://www.ssa.gov ,
http://www.treasury.gov

(i) For S&P 500 hist. DB:
Historical Stock Data

(ii) For Euronext's stock markets (5y database):
302 Found

(iii) others (very interesting if you have the ticker):
Yahoo! - 404 Not Found
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/

Downloader
Historical stock quotes download Metastock

Extensive Data Series
http://www.economagic.com/

Links
http://cpcug.org:80/user/invest/datahist.html
The Financial Data Finder

Currency Data
http://www.oanda.com/convert/fxhistory

Options Data
Stock Options Analysis and Trading Tools on I Volatility.com
Untitled Document
http://www.maoxian.com/memoranda/putcall.html

Free Nightly Intraday Futures Data
http://www.simiansavants.com/cmedata.shtml

Free Data
http://www.traders2traders.com/linkindex/default.asp

compress function in SAS

noreply@blogger.com (ashutosh kulkarni) — Thu, 16 Apr 2009 00:09:00 +0000

I am posting a small code to convert IP address in in SAS files from character to numeric form

this will make easier to sort bunch of ip address given in log files...

libname ashu "D:\saslibraries";

data ashu.dest(drop = name);

set ashu .source;

name = compress(cip,'.'); * might need to change the ip c-ip to cip while importing file to SAS

cip1 = put(name,12.);

run;

proc sort data = ashu.dest out = dest;

by cip1;

run;

Japanese Hedge funds shunning trading models

noreply@blogger.com (ashutosh kulkarni) — Tue, 07 Apr 2009 17:21:00 +0000

when half of the global trade is done on trading models Japanese hedge funds are keeping away from the trading models and are more focussed on the internal research, and ofcourse performing well LINK

April 7 (Bloomberg) -- Hideki Wakabayashi sat through 500 meetings with company executives before settling on the stocks that produced a 13 percent advance last year for the long-short equity hedge fund he runs at Tokyo-based Finnowave Investments.

Toru Hashizume matched Wakabayashi’s performance with a 13 percent return for his Ginga Service Sector Fund by following a similar path. He said he sifted through 800 stocks before betting on about 70.

The Japanese hedge fund managers plan to beat benchmarks again in 2009 by shunning computer-driven trading in favor of company research. Their gains contrast with the average 19 percent drop of global hedge funds, according to data compiled by Chicago-based Hedge Fund Research Inc., and the 42 percent slump in the Nikkei 225 Stock Average during 2008, the index’s worst annual performance.

TIM Geithner plan

noreply@blogger.com (ashutosh kulkarni) — Sun, 05 Apr 2009 18:19:00 +0000

Moody's , S&P downgraded

noreply@blogger.com (ashutosh kulkarni) — Fri, 03 Apr 2009 23:49:00 +0000

The news of Moodys and Standard and Poor being not the sole authorities in deciding credit rating was taken by Insurance companies today according to the article in Bloomberg, this will force insurance companies to develop a new way or to enlarge internal credit risk department. Thus increasing their headache of measuring the risk instead of outsourcing, but reducing the discrepency, thus putting dice,of stability in deciding future risks assesment, rolling. LINK

April 3 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. state insurance regulators may reduce their dependence on firms including Standard & Poor’s and Moody’s Investors Service, saying they are looking into ratings “shortcomings.”

The National Association of Insurance Commissioners has assigned a group to explore “the reasons for recent rating shortcomings” and “the problems inherent in reliance on ratings,” the group said in a statement on its Web site.

The watchdogs are conducting their review after insurers’ portfolios were buffeted by downgrades to commercial mortgage- backed securities held to help back policies. Regulators currently rely on ratings assigned by S&P, Moody’s and other firms when calculating the amount of capital insurance companies must hold to protect against losses on CMBS and other so-called